Report Industry Investment Ratings - **One Star (Bullish with Limited Operability)**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Live Hogs [1] - **Two Stars (Clear Bullish/Bearish Trend and Market Fermentation)**: None - **Three Stars (Clearer Bullish/Bearish Trend and Investment Opportunities)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Eggs [1] - **White Star (Balanced Trend and Poor Operability, Observe)**: None Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, policy, trade relations, and supply - demand. In the face of uncertainties in tariff and weather issues, the market trends of different agricultural products vary, and continuous attention to relevant factors is required [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans show a volatile and slightly strong rebound. Spot prices are relatively stable, and today's tender procurement had zero transactions. In the next week, there will be more showers in Northeast China and northern North China, which is beneficial for soil moisture but may cause short - term waterlogging. For imported soybeans, in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas, higher - than - normal temperature and precipitation can ease the high - temperature risk. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of the week ending July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than normal, and there will be high - temperature days in the central and southeastern regions. The suspension of Sino - US tariffs is about to end, and China's soybean procurement decision is a market focus. Domestically, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the soybean meal inventory is increasing. Before the tariff and weather issues are clear, the soybean meal market will be volatile [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contracts of domestic palm oil and soybean oil show position reduction and price adjustment. Currently, major domestic industrial products are rising strongly, but palm oil does not follow. The palm oil futures main contract price is near the previous high, with position reduction. In the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas, high temperature and precipitation can ease the high - temperature risk. Short - term data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased and exports decreased in July 1 - 20. Due to the long - term development of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the palm oil's fourth - quarter production reduction cycle, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Today, rapeseed meal is strong and rapeseed oil is weak. The stagnant rise and decline of overseas oilseeds and oils are mainly reflected in the oil market. The peak season of aquatic feed demand is coming, and the consumption of East China granular meal has improved. Coastal oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory is low, supporting the short - term rapeseed meal price. The uncertainty of rapeseed imports remains, and there are variables in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The short - term strategy for rapeseed products is to observe, focusing on weather and trade negotiations [6] Corn - Today, Sinograin held an imported corn sales auction with 198,558 tons, and the transaction rate was 27%. As of the week ending July 20, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 74%, in line with expectations. The US corn is growing well. Currently, the domestic corn market has few contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures market continues the upward trend of the January contract leading the rise. The far - month contracts are stronger than the near - month ones. The rise is driven by policy expectations. The spot market is weak. The long - term supply indicators show sufficient potential supply. Attention should be paid to policy guidance [8] Eggs - Egg futures increased positions and slightly declined today. Spot prices are stable in some areas and rising in others. The spot price is in the seasonal rebound stage, but attention should be paid to the pressure of cold - storage egg release. The off - season contracts are affected by insufficient old - hen culling and high production capacity. In the long - term, the egg price cycle has not bottomed out [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is optimistic due to the "anti-involution" trend and the rectification of overproducing coal mines, and the industrial products at low levels continue to rise sharply. The market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to policy changes on both supply and demand sides [2]. - The market expectations have improved due to the "anti-involution" and the upcoming important meeting, and the market sentiment has been further strengthened. It is expected that the short-term trend of iron ore will be strong, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased market volatility [3]. - The coke and coking coal prices have risen sharply, and although the carbon element supply is still abundant, the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off-season. The impact of "anti-involution" on these industries is currently limited, and attention should be paid to whether the policies are further implemented. The futures prices are at a premium, and the upward trend may continue in the short term [4][6]. - The prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have risen. The inventory of silicon manganese is expected to continue to decline, and the price of manganese ore is under pressure in the long term. The demand for ferrosilicon is generally good, and both follow the trend of thread steel, with relatively small increases [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The demand for thread steel is weak during the off-season, production continues to decline, and inventory accumulates slightly at a low level. The demand for hot-rolled coil remains resilient, production continues to decline, and inventory drops slightly. Molten iron production has increased and remains at a high level. The negative feedback pressure on the market is small under the low-inventory pattern. Domestic demand is still weak, while exports remain relatively high. The market is expected to remain strong [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have increased month-on-month and are stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has declined from a high level, and port inventory has increased slightly with no obvious short-term inventory accumulation pressure. On the demand side, it is the off-season for the terminal, the proportion of profitable steel mills is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the motivation for active production cuts is insufficient. The molten iron production unexpectedly rebounded last week. The short-term trend is expected to be strong [3]. Coke - The price limit up within the day. The second round of price increases for coking has been proposed, the coking profit is meager, and the daily coking production has increased slightly after a continuous decline. The overall coke inventory has decreased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders has increased. The carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off-season. The futures price is at a premium, and the upward trend may continue in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - The price limit up within the day. Affected by policy documents, the futures price has risen significantly. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, the spot auction market has improved, the transaction price has continued to rise, and the terminal inventory has increased. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the production-side inventory has continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue to reduce inventory in the short term. The carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off-season. The futures price is at a premium, and the upward trend may continue in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuated upward within the day. Due to continuous production cuts in the early stage, the inventory level has decreased, the weekly production recovery rate is slow, and both futures and spot demand have improved. It is judged that the inventory will mainly continue to decline. In the long term, the manganese ore inventory is gradually increasing, which exerts great pressure on the price. In the short term, the current inventory level is low, the price support intention of manganese mines has increased, and the spot manganese ore price has risen following the futures price [7]. Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated upward within the day. The molten iron production has increased and returned above 242. The export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand has slightly declined marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon has increased slightly, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance inventory has declined fluctuatingly [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Paper pulp: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market) [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market) [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] Core Views - For different soft commodities, the market conditions vary. Some are affected by supply - demand relationships, weather, and policies. The overall suggestions are mainly to wait and see, with some opportunities for short - term operations or low - position buying [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today due to the strong overall commodity market and domestic anti - involution policies. The 9 - 1 spread declined. The cotton inventory depletion slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. Downstream procurement is still cautious, and there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new year. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading and strong prices. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar retreated. In Brazil, heavy rainfall in the second half of June affected the sugarcane harvest, with a year - on - year decrease in the sugarcane crushing volume. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. The overall harvest progress is slow, resulting in large year - on - year decreases in sugarcane crushing and sugar production. In July, rainfall in the main producing areas decreased. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons, and 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although Guangxi has increased production this year, due to the fast sales pace, inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The US sugar trend is downward, and the upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. New - season early - maturing apples began to be listed, and cold - storage merchants were more active in shipping, causing the price of cold - storage apples to weaken. There are many seasonal fruits with low prices, and the hot weather has led to low apple demand. However, the remaining inventory is not large. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. Last week, the cold - storage apple destocking volume was 90,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.8%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on production is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR all rose. The futures market sentiment was optimistic, and the domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubbers continued to rise. The Asian price of the butadiene tower outlet was stable, while the European price was stable with a slight decline. The price in the Thai raw material market continued to rise. Globally, the natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period. Typhoon "Weipa" entered northern Vietnam, bringing heavy rainfall to some areas in Southeast Asia. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded. Jinzhou Petrochemical, Heze Kexin, and Yanshan Petrochemical restarted, and Yihua Rubber and Plastics plans to restart this week. Dushanzi Petrochemical reduced its load, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to decline. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires continued to rise slightly, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to rise significantly. Enterprises that had stopped production for maintenance have fully resumed normal production, and the inventory of tire finished products has increased. In terms of inventory, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 634,600 tons this week, with both bonded and general trade inventories decreasing. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 126,000 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene decreased significantly to 20,000 tons. Overall, downstream demand has improved, rubber supply has increased, rubber inventory has decreased, market sentiment is positive, and there are potential policy benefits. The strategy is to expect a rebound [6] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was stable at 5,900 yuan/ton, the price of Russian softwood pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was stable at 4,100 yuan/ton. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China was 2.181 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. In June, China's pulp imports were still relatively high year - on - year, with an import volume of 3.031 million tons in June and a cumulative import volume of 18.578 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, the pulp demand is still weak, and downstream buyers tend to bargain. The demand is in the traditional off - season. The pulp valuation is low. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 62,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 cubic meters, an increase of 6.12%. Last week, the average daily outbound volume at ports rebounded to 60,000 cubic meters. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall destocking is good. As of July 18, the total national port log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 cubic meters, with the radiation - pine inventory at 2.64 million cubic meters. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, providing some bullish factors on the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and there is insufficient momentum for price rebounds. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2025/7/22 有色板块截面动量回升 商品本周多头占比小幅回升,主要表现 为黑色和有色板块信号强度回升,化工 和贵金属板块出现局部多头信号。目 前,截面偏强的板块是黑色和化工,截 面偏弱的是能源板块。具体来看,黄金 时序动量有所企稳，贵金属板块内分化 收窄。有色板块持仓量上升,截面上的 分化收窄,但锌、镍在截面上仍处于偏 CTA 弱的一端。黑色板块,整体持仓量因子 边际回升,期限结构分化扩大,铁矿截 面偏强。能化板块截面动量分化,乙二 醇截面偏强,能源品种相对偏弱。农产 品方面,油脂类持仓量小幅回落。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | -0.12 | -0.21 | | 需求 | -0.06 | -1.31 | | 库存 | 0.12 | 1.00 | | 价差 | 0.19 | -0.21 | | 大类累加 | 0.00 | -1.06 | 用 策略净值方面,上周供给因子走弱 老 र्गे FM ग्रे # * 阵仔 价差 ■ 上周因子强度 ■ 当周因子强度 数据来源:wi ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified [1] - Methanol: Not specified [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified [1] - Styrene: Not specified [1] - Ethylene: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Plastics: Not specified [1] - PVC: Not specified [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - PX: Not specified [1] - PTA: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly positive) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ (Slightly positive) [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: Not specified [1] - Propylene: Not specified [1] Core Views - The olefin and polyolefin futures markets showed different trends. Olefin futures had a strong start, but the propylene fundamentals were weak. Polyolefin futures rose, but the fundamentals remained soft [2]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets had different performances. Pure benzene had short - term support and different monthly spread operation suggestions. Benzene - styrene had a price increase, but the supply - demand contradiction was difficult to improve [3]. - In the polyester market, PX and PTA were stable but faced supply - demand issues. Ethylene glycol was short - term strong but supply might increase. Short fiber had policy support and mid - term potential, while bottle chips had limited profit - repair drivers [5]. - The methanol market rose due to cost - side news, and its sustainability was uncertain. The urea market was expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [6]. - The PVC market was strong due to news, and the caustic soda market was also strong under macro influence [7]. - The soda ash and glass markets were affected by macro and upstream news, and their long - term trends depended on capacity reduction implementation [8]. Section Summaries Olefin - Polyolefin - Olefin futures opened higher and closed up on the first day, expected to be strong in the short term. However, the propylene supply - demand was imbalanced, and it was in the off - season [2]. - Polyolefin futures rose, but the fundamentals were weak. Polyethylene demand was poor, and polypropylene downstream demand was also weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene spot prices slightly declined, but the price trend was upward. It had short - term support from inventory and seasonal expectations. Different monthly spread operations were suggested for different periods [3]. - Benzene - styrene futures rose. Supply and demand both increased slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate, with the supply - demand contradiction difficult to improve [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA were stable, with PTA continuing to accumulate inventory and having limited supply - demand drivers. Ethylene glycol was short - term strong but might face supply increases. Short fiber had policy support and mid - term potential, while bottle chips had limited profit - repair drivers [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose due to cost - side news, and its upward trend's sustainability was uncertain. The inventory of production enterprises changed little, and the coastal area had sufficient supply [6]. - Urea futures were expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with supply sufficient, demand structure changing, and policy support [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was strong due to news, and the industry had some old - age capacity. The manufacturer's inventory decreased slightly, and the social inventory increased [7]. - Caustic soda was strong under macro influence, with profit improvement and attention to old - age capacity reduction [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had a daily limit up, with inventory decreasing and supply under high pressure. The photovoltaic industry continued to cut production [8]. - Glass had a daily limit up, with prices rising. Its long - term trend depended on capacity reduction implementation [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Paper pulp: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Apple: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Sugar: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Logs: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - 20 - rubber: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Natural rubber: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Butadiene rubber: Bullish and the trend is emerging (Two stars represent a clear rising trend and the market is fermenting) [1] Core Views - The overall commodity market is strong. The domestic anti - involution policy promotes commodity price increases. Different soft commodities show different trends and investment suggestions are mainly temporary observation or short - term operations [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Category Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today due to the strong commodity market and domestic policies. The 9 - 1 spread decreased. Cotton inventory depletion slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. Downstream cotton procurement is still cautious, and there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new season. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading volume and strong prices. Macroscopically, pay attention to the details of Sino - US trade agreements. Suggest temporary observation or intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices declined. In Brazil, heavy rainfall in the second half of June affected the sugar - cane harvest, and the sugar - cane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. As the overall harvest progress is slow this year, the sugar - cane crushing volume and sugar production have decreased significantly year - on - year. In July, rainfall in the main production areas decreased. In China, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year; imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 103,500 tons year - on - year. Although Guangxi has increased production this year, due to the fast sales rhythm, inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. However, the US sugar trend is downward, and the upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term. Suggest temporary observation [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Early - maturing apples are on the market, cold - storage merchants are more willing to sell, and cold - storage apple prices are falling. There are many seasonal fruits with low prices, and the hot weather has led to low apple demand. However, the remaining inventory is not large, and the inventory pressure is not significant. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. Last week, the cold - storage apple destocking volume was 90,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.8%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western production areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on production is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the production estimate. Suggest temporary observation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR all rose. The futures market sentiment is optimistic, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continue to rise. The Asian price of the butadiene tower outlet is stable, while the European price is stable with a slight decline. The price of the Thai raw material market continues to rise. Globally, natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. Typhoon "Weipa" has entered northern Vietnam, bringing heavy rain to some areas in Southeast Asia. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded. Jinzhou Petrochemical, Heze Kexin, and Yanshan Petrochemical restarted, and Yihua Rubber and Plastics plans to restart this week. Dushanzi Petrochemical reduced its load, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to decline. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tire plants continued to rise slightly, and the operating rate of semi - steel tire plants continued to rise significantly. Tire manufacturers that had stopped production for maintenance have fully resumed normal production, and tire inventory has increased. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, as counted by Longzhong, dropped to 634,600 tons, and both bonded - area and general - trade inventories decreased. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber, as counted by Zhuochuang, dropped to 12,600 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene dropped significantly to 20,000 tons. Overall, downstream demand has improved, rubber supply has increased, rubber inventory has decreased, market sentiment is positive, and there are potential policy benefits. The strategy is to expect a rebound [6] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5,900 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian softwood pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Star was 4,100 yuan/ton, remaining stable. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China was 2.181 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. In June, China's pulp imports were still relatively high year - on - year. In June, China imported 3.031 million tons of pulp, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 18.578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, pulp demand is still weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and demand is in the traditional off - season. Pulp valuation is low. Last Friday, China introduced more anti - involution policies, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, focusing on adjusting the structure, optimizing supply, and eliminating backward production capacity. Suggest temporary observation or light - position buying on dips [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of logs from 13 national ports was 62,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 cubic meters, an increase of 6.12%. Last week, the average daily outbound volume of ports rebounded to 60,000 cubic meters. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume of ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound volume is good. As of July 18, the total national port log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous period. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.64 million cubic meters. The overall national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, and there is some positive news on the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the power for price rebound is insufficient. Suggest temporary observation [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆, indicating short - term trend equilibrium and poor operability) [1] - Fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Asphalt: Neutral (represented by ☆☆☆) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Bullish (represented by ★☆☆, indicating a bullish trend but poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The support of strong real - world factors for oil prices has weakened, and the market rating has been adjusted from bullish to neutral. The oil market may be under pressure and fluctuate, but it is expected to gain support again in August [1] - The EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia has increased the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, supporting the FU's resistance to decline. The LU follows the crude oil trend, and the decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] - The asphalt production of refineries in August is expected to decline compared to July. The demand recovery is delayed, but the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly, and the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] - The overseas LPG market is weak, but the domestic chemical demand is strong. The domestic LPG supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market is running weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the support of strong real - world factors for oil prices weakened, and the market rating was adjusted from bullish to neutral. This week, the contango, spot premium, and gasoline cracking have further confirmed this judgment [1] - Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 0.2%, with crude oil inventories decreasing by 0.7% and refined oil inventories increasing by 1.7%. The market is still in a state of inventory accumulation due to supply - demand surplus in the third quarter, although the amplitude may slow down [1] - There is still uncertainty about the US tariff increase on Brazil, the EU, Canada, and Mexico before August 1. The related negative risks are greater than the geopolitical risks of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Oil prices may be under pressure and fluctuate. As the final deadlines for the Iran nuclear and Russia - Ukraine negotiations approach at the end of August and early September, geopolitical games may intensify again in August, and the crude oil market is expected to gain support [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, SC has weakened significantly, and the fuel oil futures are under pressure, but FU is significantly resistant to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread continues to shrink [2] - After the EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia, the supply risk of high - sulfur resources has increased, supporting the FU's trend and making it resistant to decline among oil products [2] - The LU's unilateral trend follows the crude oil, but the fluctuation range is less than that of SC. The decline in SC leads to the passive strengthening of LU cracking [2] Asphalt - Longzhong reported that the refinery production plan in August decreased significantly compared to July. Affected by typhoon and rainfall in the South, the demand recovery is slower than expected, and the rigid demand in the North is also weak [2] - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased slightly month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase has remained stable since July. The latest data shows that the refinery inventory has returned to the destocking state, the social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall commercial inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month [2] - In the asphalt industry, state - owned enterprises mainly operate plants with a production period of more than 20 years, and the private enterprise production capacity accounts for only 3.6%, which has a limited marginal reduction effect on the industry's production capacity. Considering the low - inventory pattern of asphalt, the BU cracking is expected to be supported [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas market is generally weak. The increase in Middle East sales and high - level inventory accumulation in North America continue to suppress the market. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a further decline in CP at the end of the month [2] - The domestic PDH has quickly resumed production, and the current profit margin remains at a good level this year, with strong short - term chemical demand [2] - The external supply of refineries has slightly decreased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, domestic LPG is expected to stabilize. The loose spot market strengthens the delivery discount pressure, and the futures market is running weakly under the weakening support of crude oil [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Metals Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 79,555 with a rise of 895; SMM flat - water copper premium is 175 with a rise of 50 [1] Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,890 with a rise of 190; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 100 with a fall of 10; Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,185 with a rise of 15; Australian alumina FOB average price is 370 dollars with no change [1] Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,800 with a rise of 100; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 110 with a rise of 5; Recycled refined lead average price is 16,775 with a rise of 75; Scrap - refined spread is 25 with a rise of 25 [1] Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,820 with a rise of 500; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 10 with a fall of 15 [1] Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 267,200 with a rise of 1,700; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 80 with a fall of 150; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 255,200 with a rise of 1,700; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan)/SMM 1 tin ratio is 95.51% [1] Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 122,200 with a rise of 1,400; 1 imported nickel premium to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 350 with no change; 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 123,850 with a rise of 1,400; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 2,000 with no change [1] Silicon - Oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) average price plus 800 (with regional discount + 200 for quality impurity removal) is 9,850 with a rise of 150; 553 spot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 675 with a fall of 335; 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9,900; Polysilicon dense material average price is 31; Granular silicon average price is 30.5; N - type polysilicon material average price is 46 [1] Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 68,000 with a rise of 1,350; Battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 2,960 with a fall of 650; Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 66,350; Battery - industrial carbon spread is 1,650 with a rise of 50 [1]

| 11/11/2 | >国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月22日 | | | 黄金 ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | 白银 ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | ★关税-10欧盟外交官:欧盟正在探索对美国关税采取更广泛的潜在反制措施,但仍优先与美国通过谈判解 决问题。②印尼：19%的美国关税可能在8月1日前生效，取决于联合声明。③美国财长贝森特：更关心高质 量的交易，而不是在8月1日前完成交易。不必与欧洲闹僵。④印度贸易代表团已返回印度，预计将在九月至 十月前与美国达成交易。 ★①美国白宫:特朗普没有解雇鲍威尔的计划。②美国共和党众议员Luna发函司法部,发函司法部称鲍威尔 两次作伪证,提出刑事指控。③美联储在其官网的"常见问题页面"新增了总部翻修工程的视频导览内容。 ④据Semafor: 特朗普政府官员考虑在审查美联储翻新工程 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia tightens price limits, but impact on supply is uncertain. In July, trade - war risks are greater than geopolitical benefits, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured trend [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - low sulfur spread continues to decline. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia boosts FU, while LU follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than SC since mid - July [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas markets are weak, but domestic PDH demand is strong. With weak supply and demand, domestic gas may stabilize, and the market is expected to be in low - level oscillation [23] - **Urea**: Affected by policy news, the market is bullish. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and supply is sufficient. With expected growth in industrial demand and export progress, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24] - **Methanol**: Boosted by policy, it is bullish at night. Import arrivals increase, and ports are rapidly stocking. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance, and attention should be paid to macro - level impacts [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the upward drive for gold is limited. With high uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline and a weakening dollar outlook, precious metals are in wide - range oscillation, and the gold - silver ratio has room to decline [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. Social inventories decreased rapidly over the weekend. Resistance at the upper integer level is strong, and the 2508 option portfolio should be held until expiration this week [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed non - ferrous metals in a strong and oscillating trend. Aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: Overnight, it remained strong. With low warehouse receipts and high industry operating rates, after a sharp increase driven by policy expectations, there is a risk of correction [5] - **Zinc**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, zinc prices broke through the bottom consolidation. However, with increasing supply pressure, attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and the entry of hedging positions [7] - **Lead**: Primary lead smelters are reducing production, and the cost support is strong. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. With weakening upstream price support and high overall inventory, it is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated at a high level. With a decrease in imports from Congo and an increase from Myanmar, it is recommended to hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillated and rose. With increasing total inventory and a rebound in Australian ore prices, the upward space is limited, and short - sellers should manage their positions [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by an accident in the organic silicon supply, prices rose significantly. With increasing demand and limited supply, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price strengthened. With cost transfer and limited terminal demand acceptance, short - term observation is recommended [13] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated narrowly. Rebar demand declined, and hot - rolled coil demand was resilient. With low inventory and positive market sentiment, the market is expected to remain strong [14] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price oscillated. With increasing global shipments and high iron - making production, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices continued to rise. With sufficient carbon supply and high iron - making production, they are expected to follow steel prices and remain strong in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices adjusted slightly after a high opening. With decreasing inventory and increasing demand expectations, it follows rebar prices. Ferrosilicon prices opened high, with overall good demand and a slight increase in supply, also following rebar prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Night - trading prices oscillated. With a slight increase in domestic production and a decrease in port inventory, it is recommended to operate in monthly spreads, with a positive spread strategy in the short - to - medium term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter [26] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - news, the trading sentiment improved. With expected increases in both supply and demand and continued inventory accumulation, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Driven by the macro - environment, the market sentiment improved slightly, but the fundamentals are weak. In the consumption off - season, downstream procurement is cautious, and there is pressure to destock [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity, PVC showed a strong trend. Caustic soda was also strong under macro - influence. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity - elimination policies [28] - **PX & PTA**: Night - trading prices oscillated. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and demand dragged down PX. The processing margin of PTA has room for repair [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: With limited policy impact and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the short term, paying attention to the previous high - point pressure [30] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: They followed PTA and closed with a doji. Short - fiber is expected to be long - positioned in the medium term, while bottle - grade chip has limited profit - repair drivers due to over - capacity [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybean优良率decreased slightly, and with uncertainties in trade and weather, soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the situation becomes clear [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by weather, policy, and supply - demand factors, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended, with short - term attention to weather and policy guidance [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: With potential changes in import trade and seasonal demand, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - **Corn**: US corn auction results were poor, and Dalian corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom [39] - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Hogs**: Affected by policies, the futures price rose significantly. However, with sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - hedging at high prices [40] - **Eggs**: Small - egg prices decreased, while large - egg prices increased. The spot price is in a seasonal rebound, and the futures market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [41] - **Others** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Chinese cotton prices corrected. With tight supply and potential short - squeeze, it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated, and domestic sugar sales are fast with low inventory. Considering weather and production uncertainties, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: Futures prices oscillated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and attention should be paid to price changes and new - season yield estimates [44] - **Wood**: Futures prices rebounded. With low - level spot prices, low port arrivals, and inventory, but weak domestic demand, it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: Prices continued to rise. With high port inventory and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [46] Financial Products Summaries Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and continued to rise. The futures index contracts all closed up, with IC leading the gain. The market risk preference is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term, and technology - growth stocks are recommended for additional allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed with oscillation. The central bank's policy may inject implicit liquidity, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]