1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different products are as follows: - **Three-star ratings**: Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - **One-star ratings**: Coke, coking coal, and silicon manganese, suggesting a bias towards long/short with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the trading floor [1]. - **One-star with one white-star rating**: Ferrosilicon, indicating a certain long/short tendency but relatively balanced short-term trends and poor operability on the trading floor [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall steel market is under pressure due to weak demand during the peak season, the resurgence of the US tariff - adding issue, and weak domestic demand. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets are supported by high - level pig iron production, and the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by high pig iron production and external trade frictions [2][3][4][6][7][8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs **Steel** - The steel trading floor showed a weak oscillation today. During the holiday, the apparent demand for thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased significantly, production declined slightly, and inventories accumulated substantially. Pig iron production remained high, and downstream carrying capacity was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industry chain continued to ferment. Domestic demand was still weak, but steel exports in September remained high. The trading floor was under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the progress of the game between the two countries and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [2]. **Iron Ore** - The iron ore trading floor rose today, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, global shipments decreased环比 but were stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals rebounded significantly. On the demand side, pig iron production was highly resilient, and steel mills had certain replenishment needs after the National Day, but the pressure for future production cuts was increasing. Considering the low direct exports to the US and the upcoming important domestic meeting in October, the emotional impact was within expectations. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate at a high level [3]. **Coke** - The coke price oscillated upward today. The first round of price increases for coking was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. Profits were average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased slightly. After pre - holiday replenishment, downstream enterprises were mainly consuming inventories, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, and high - level pig iron production provided support. The coke trading floor had a slight premium, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in major coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff - adding [4]. **Coking Coal** - The coking coal price oscillated upward today. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, spot auction transactions decreased slightly, and transaction prices remained stable. Terminal inventories decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly环比, and production - end inventories increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines voluntarily reduced production efficiency, leading to a decline in production. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, high - level pig iron production provided support. The coking coal trading floor had a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in major coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff - adding [6]. **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese price mainly oscillated today. On the demand side, pig iron production remained high. Weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, inventories decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly环比, and spot ores were boosted by the trading floor. Manganese ore inventories decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]. **Ferrosilicon** - The ferrosilicon price mainly oscillated today. On the demand side, pig iron production remained high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly环比, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand was acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8].

中美经贸冲击下后市展望 国投期货研究院 2025/10/13 市 场风险偏好高位运行，边际变化积累催生避险交易 图：9月降息落地后，美元指数自低位反弹，强于人民币贬值程度 图：美元在岸流动性收紧，但尚未出现危机模式 • 地缘局势偏稳推进，但没有明确破局；中美经贸问题有所反复，近期出现违背会谈成果迹象。 • 美联储降息态度中性谨慎，国际政坛短期动荡，推动美元指数阶段性反弹，美元流动性边际收敛。 情景推演： TACO交易 o r新一轮博弈的开始 图：4月2日对等关税冲击后，市场风险偏好逐步提升 图：市场计价美联储今年仍有2次25bp降息幅度 • 基准情景：受制于美国国内金融状况或实体供应链压力，特朗普可能转鸽，谈判仍然向达成共识方向推 进，市场出现脉冲式冲击后的交易机会。 • 风险情景：目前美国和盟友达成阶段性框架协议，美国金融状况好于4月对等关税时期，美债避险属性修 复，特朗普可能考虑继续施压，谈判受阻下市场避险交易持续性上升。 • 短期跟踪：由于特朗普并未否认APEC两国领导人会面，且中国商务部亦表示对于出口而言是限制而非禁 止，比特币和美股等市场表现积极，因此本周初市场定价基准情景，即TACO交易的模式。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods has significantly impacted the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [2][3]. - The risk of a resurgence in the China - US tariff war and the potential increase in the supply - demand surplus in the oil market will keep the oil market in a weak and volatile state [2]. - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains stable, and they may continue to rise as the US signals a willingness to negotiate [3]. - Most commodity markets are under pressure due to trade frictions, but some may have certain support levels or short - term rebounds based on their fundamentals [4][5][8]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices dropped significantly on Friday due to Trump's tariff threat, and although they rebounded slightly on Monday, the Brent price was still 2.4% lower than on Friday afternoon. The oil market will continue to be weak and volatile, mainly due to the risk of the China - US tariff war and potential supply - demand imbalances [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Trump's tariff threat and the progress in the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation have led to concerns about global economic growth and oil demand, putting downward pressure on the fuel oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil may be relatively stronger, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken further [22]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market maintains a tight supply - demand balance. Cost side weakness puts pressure on asphalt, but the cracking spread has rebounded since late September [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: OPEC+ future production increase and the decline in Saudi CP prices have led to a cautious market sentiment. LPG is under pressure in the short term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, and they may continue their upward trend as the market liquidity risk decreases [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fell on Friday due to trade tensions. Although large - scale mine supply losses have affected copper concentrate production growth expectations, the impact of new trade risks on macro - sentiment should still be evaluated [4]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff threat caused a significant drop in non - ferrous metals. The aluminum market has a neutral inventory accumulation, and the Shanghai Aluminum price has support around 20,500 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The market is bearish due to the tariff threat. The London Zinc price is under pressure at the 3050 - dollar/ton level, and the Shanghai Zinc market has a supply - surplus situation [8]. - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is high, but the Shanghai Lead price has cost support. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel price rebounded and then fell back. The market is in a short - term oscillation, and it is not considered a bullish variety [10]. - **Tin**: The London Tin price may fall back to the pre - holiday trading range in the short term [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The implementation of export controls on lithium - related products may affect market risk preferences. With high inventory levels, there is a short - term callback risk [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is stable compared to before the holiday. The industry is facing high - level inventory accumulation, and short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 48,000 - yuan/ton support [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable. The supply is expected to increase in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [14]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea market is weak. Production enterprises have large inventories, and the supply is high. The domestic supply - demand pattern remains loose [25]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market may continue to be weak due to the drop in oil prices and a weak macro - atmosphere. However, the rumored sanctions on Iranian vessels may affect imports [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Facing cost and demand double - negative factors, there is a short - term risk of decline, and the extent of the decline depends on oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: The international financial market turmoil has increased the bearish sentiment in the styrene market. The price is under pressure due to cost and supply - demand factors [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The market is bearish, with increased inventory after the holiday and a downward - trending price center [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC market may be weak due to high supply and low demand. The caustic soda market has a high - pressure supply situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Facing cost and demand double - negative factors, there is a short - term downward risk. The supply - demand situation is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased domestic production and high port inventory. The supply - demand situation will weaken in the fourth quarter [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber price may decline due to oil price drops and trade frictions. The bottle - chip demand is expected to weaken after the holiday [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US tariff threat has affected the US soybean market. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be supply shortages in the first quarter of next year if the trade relationship deteriorates [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The decline in oil prices has led to a drop in vegetable oil prices. The palm oil market in Malaysia has high inventory, while the Indonesian market is more resilient. In the long - term, oils are expected to be more resilient [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market is affected by trade expectations. The rapeseed price is under short - term pressure, and the domestic rapeseed futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: The domestic soybean may be affected by the overseas market in the short - term. Enterprises are starting to purchase new - season soybeans [40]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures are more domestically - oriented. The new - grain listing has led to a decline in corn prices, but the state - owned grain reserve purchase may provide some support [41]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The pig futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The supply pressure is high in the short - term, but the market may improve in the second half of next year [42]. - **Egg**: The egg price is under downward pressure due to high production capacity and off - season demand. The near - term contracts should be treated with a bearish view, while the contracts for the first half of next year can be considered for long - position allocation [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton demand is expected to be weak. The China - US trade frictions may lead to a decline in both domestic and international cotton prices. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has sufficient supply. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good in the 25/26 season, and attention should be paid to weather conditions [45]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price is oscillating at a high level. The new - season apple production is expected to be stable, and the high inventory may put pressure on prices [46]. - **Timber**: The timber market's supply - demand situation has improved. The low - price spot provides an opportunity for long - position allocation [47]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price has reached a new low. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market is under pressure due to trade frictions and geopolitical issues. Short - term strategies can be adjusted according to market conditions, such as using far - month contracts for long - position allocation or near - month contracts for hedging [49]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The 10 - month liquidity gap is controllable, and the bond market is expected to gradually recover. The yield curve is expected to steepen [50].

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆价格从高位回调。目前随着新豆上市，市场主体开始进行新季豆的收购工作,目前内蒙和黑龙江地区 低蛋白毛粮收购价格太约在1.7-1.8元/斤。39% · 40%蛋白的毛粮收购价格大约在1.85-1.95元/斤，目前企业在 陆续收购。豆一表现强于豆二,美豆方面短期供需两端面临压力,预计后续美豆市场仍 ...

| 《八 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月10日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨,期货冲高回落,新棉预售价格低于现货,国庆期间新疆将棉收购价先跌后涨,前期新花水 分较大、导致部分收购价格较低，国庆节期间正常水分收购价多在6-6.2元/公斤区间，较高收购价在6.2-6.3 元/公斤左右。纯棉纱价格稳中偏弱，走货气氛一般，旺季延续不旺的表现。9月份中旬以来，郑棉连续下跌， 对于籽棉收购价格形成负反馈, ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆价格从高位回调。目前随着新豆上市，市场主体开始进行新季豆的收购工作,目前内蒙和黑龙江地区 低蛋白毛粮收购价格太约在1.7-1.8元/斤。39% · 40%蛋白的毛粮收购价格大约在1.85-1.95元/斤，目前企业在 陆续收购。豆一表现强于豆二,美豆方面短期供需两端面临压力,预计后续美豆市场仍 ...

周度期货价量总览 商品类别 品种 周收盘价 周涨跌幅 20日年化波动率 波动率变化(%) 投机度 趋势度 资金变动 黄金 901.56 3.11% 20.80% 54.45% 1.30 -0.21 -224.17 白银 11,082.00 1.50% 22.19% 4.75% 2.48 -0.39 -77.66 铜 85,910.00 3.37% 21.15% 44.23% 0.80 0.13 -13.07 镍 122,180.00 1.06% 16.53% 47.92% 1.78 0.10 -0.55 铝 20,980.00 1.45% 9.51% 49.73% 0.86 0.11 -2.99 锡 286,350.00 4.10% 18.72% 71.67% 2.65 0.11 5.48 锌 22,270.00 2.04% 11.52% 37.10% 1.43 -0.02 -9.80 铅 17,140.00 1.18% 9.30% 8.42% 0.89 0.27 -0.33 工业硅 8,685.00 0.52% 34.60% 0.07% 1.27 -0.01 -5.31 螺纹钢 3,103.00 1.01% ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Propylene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] Report's Core View - The chemical industry as a whole is facing various challenges, including weak demand, high inventory, and pressure on supply. Most product prices are under downward pressure, and the market sentiment is generally bearish. However, there are also some differences among different sub - industries, and specific product trends need to be analyzed based on their own fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices are weak, with limited upward momentum for spot prices due to subdued demand and general market trading [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices continue to decline, with increased supply pressure from higher production and inventory accumulation [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are in a low - level shock, and styrene prices are under pressure due to weak cost support, sufficient supply, and lackluster demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are falling due to oil price decline. Near - term supply - demand is okay, but long - term pressure exists [4] - Ethylene glycol has a weak fundamental situation with high domestic production and large port inventory accumulation [4] - Short fiber has some support from seasonal demand, while bottle chip demand is expected to weaken [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures stop falling, but near - term weakness persists due to high imports and inventory [5] - Urea prices hit new lows, with high supply, large inventory, and limited export support [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are likely to be weak due to high supply, increased inventory, and low demand [6] - Caustic soda supply remains high, with downstream resistance to high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are weak, with long - term oversupply. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities [7] - Glass has seasonal inventory accumulation, but low - valuation limits the decline. Low - buying near cost can be considered [7]

| | | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。 长假期间螺纹表需大幅下滑，同比依然偏弱，产量小幅回落，库存大幅累积。热卷需求同步下滑，产量小 幅回落，库存大幅累积。铁水产量维持高位，下游承接能力不足，随着钢厂利润下滑，产业链负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游 行业看，9月PMI回升至49.8，制造业边际企稳，长假期间地产销售降幅扩大，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位，外围加 征关税带来一定扰动。盘面持续调整后稍有企稳，反弹动能依然不足，短期震荡为主，关注节后需求回暖力度。 【铁矿】 铁矿今日盘面上涨。 供应端，全球发运环比下降，国内到港量反弹，港口库存增加，其中巴西矿增加较为明显，短期市场对于 供应受到扰动的担忧有所增加。需求端，铁水高位存在韧性，钢厂盈利率继续走弱，国庆前后钢厂存在一定补库需求，但随着 钢厂利润的收缩，以及国内需求依然处于相对低位，未来减产的压力逐步增加。国内10月将要召开重要会议，市场仍然存在一 定政策预期，但对外贸易摩擦的不确定性也依然存在。我们预计铁矿短期高位震荡为主。 | MILIA | FREE STATE | beer in the real and AM | | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish outlook with low operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency with poor trading feasibility [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short-term equilibrium with low operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆, representing a bearish view with limited trading potential [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the energy market is bearish, mainly due to geopolitical risk mitigation and supply-demand imbalances [2][3][5] - The impact of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza on the market needs continuous attention, especially its influence on the Russia-Ukraine situation [2] Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.45% intraday [2] - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza eases geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2] - The marginal increase in surplus pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year remains the main trading theme, so a bearish approach is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The breakthrough in the Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiation causes the decline of geopolitical risk premium, leading to the drop of crude oil and fuel oil prices [3] - High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by damaged devices and refinery seasonal maintenance in the short term, but supply pressure may emerge in the medium term [3] - The high-sulfur marine fuel demand may be suppressed if the Red Sea resumes navigation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure and weak demand, with a loose supply-demand pattern [3] Asphalt - The latest inventory shows a slight increase in refinery inventory and a significant decrease in social inventory, with overall commercial inventory lower than before the holiday [4] - A refinery postponed its maintenance and started it from mid-October to mid-November [4] - The asphalt market maintains a tight supply-demand balance and is under pressure due to the weakening cost end [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The future production increase of OPEC+ intensifies the supply pressure of overseas associated gas [5] - The CP price cut in Saudi Arabia in October exceeds market expectations, leading to a decline in import costs [5] - The market sentiment is cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand after the holiday [5] - LPG is under short-term pressure, and the improvement of combustion demand after the temperature drops needs attention [5]