1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The domestic cotton market shows a situation of strong supply and demand. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production in Brazil is coming to an end, and the market focuses on the output forecast for the next season. The production and sales progress of domestic sugar is slow, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - The futures price of apples fluctuates. The market trading logic turns to demand. The de - stocking speed may be affected, and a bearish operation is maintained [4]. - The price of butadiene rubber futures continued to rise, and the prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber futures followed suit. The supply of rubber decreases, inventory increases, and the strategy is a strong rebound [6]. - The pulp futures rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals are average due to weak downstream demand. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position, and the short - term trend is still range - bound [7]. - The futures price of logs fluctuates. Low inventory provides some support for prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today and was volatile this week. The spot transaction of cotton was average, and the basis was stable and slightly stronger [2]. - As of January 15th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 7.128 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 631,000 tons. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 4.409 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.046 million tons [2]. - China imported 180,000 tons of cotton in December, a year - on - year increase of 44,100 tons. The total import volume is expected to be difficult to increase [2]. - Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is still resilient, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's production is ending, and the market focuses on the next season's output forecast. Rainfall in the central - southern region is a concern [3]. - The sugar - alcohol price ratio has dropped significantly, and the sugar - making ratio in the next season is expected to decline, reducing Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season [3]. - The production and sales progress of domestic sugar is slow. The weak sales are due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Apple - The futures price is volatile, and the spot price is stable. During the Spring Festival stocking period, the purchase of fruit farmers' goods is small [4]. - As of January 22nd, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.3232 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [4]. - The market trading logic turns to demand. The high acquisition price and strong reluctance to sell may affect the de - stocking speed. A bearish operation is maintained [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - The price of butadiene rubber futures continued to rise, and the prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber futures followed suit. The market sentiment of energy - chemical products is optimistic [6]. - The global natural rubber supply enters the production - reduction period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate decreased slightly this week [6]. - The domestic full - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate continued to rise significantly. The inventory of Shandong tire enterprises increased [6]. - The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 584,900 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 15,600 tons [6]. - The strategy is a strong rebound [6]. Pulp - The pulp futures rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals are average due to weak downstream demand [7]. - As of January 22nd, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.068 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous period [7]. - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, and the prices of foreign softwood and hardwood pulp have increased [7]. - Paper mills purchase pulp mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position, and the short - term trend is range - bound [7]. Timber - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot price is stable. The foreign price is lowered, and the domestic price is weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease [8]. - As of January 16th, the average daily outbound volume of 13 national ports was 61,600 cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 33.33% [8]. - As of January 16th, the national port log inventory was 257,000 cubic meters, a 4.46% decrease from the previous period. Low inventory provides support, and it is recommended to wait and see [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up, and the steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron markets have all shown varying degrees of rebound, but the market sentiment remains cautious, and the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen [1][2][3][5][6][7] - The fundamentals of the iron ore market are relatively loose, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] - The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a low level. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][5] - For silicon manganese and silicon iron, it is recommended to short on rebounds [6][7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market continues to rebound. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel has slightly declined, production has increased, and inventory has accumulated again. The demand and production of hot-rolled steel have both slightly declined, and inventory has continued to decrease. The profits of steel mills are poor, the downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron production has stabilized [1] - From the December data, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline, domestic demand remains weak overall, and steel exports remain high [1] Iron Ore - The global shipping volume of iron ore has seasonally declined but remains at a high level year-on-year. The inventory at domestic ports has increased significantly this week and continues to accumulate. The structural contradiction remains to be resolved [2] - On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season fluctuates at a low level, the resumption of production of steel mills has been disturbed, and molten iron production has remained basically flat this week, with little significant increase expected in the short term [2] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory is at a relatively low level, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment demand [2] Coke - The price of coke has continued to rebound during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been shelved, the coking profit is average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Coke inventory has increased slightly, and the purchasing意愿 of traders is average [3] - Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off-season. It remains to be seen whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and there is still a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices [3] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal has slightly rebounded during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,046 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the spot auction transactions have maintained a relatively high level. Driven by the increase in the futures price, the transaction prices have varied. Terminal inventory has increased significantly [5] - The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly increased. The winter storage demand continues to be strong [5] - Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off-season. It remains to be seen whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and there is still a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices [5] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese has slightly rebounded during the day. Driven by the rebound in the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased [6] - There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the formula of the manganese ore charged into the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [6] - On the demand side, molten iron production has seasonally decreased. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly decreased, and the inventory of silicon manganese has slightly decreased [6] Silicon Iron - The price of silicon iron has slightly rebounded during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong [7] - The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, molten iron production has rebounded to a high level. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall, demand still has resilience [7] - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly, and inventory has slightly decreased [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold and silver are both rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Platinum and palladium are recommended for long - position allocation on pullbacks [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, precious metals showed strength, with gold and silver hitting new all - time highs. Trump's statements about Greenland, tariffs, and Iran have lifted the precious metals market, but short - term profit - taking risks should be watched out for when gold breaks through $5000/oz and silver breaks through $100/oz. It's advisable to wait for a stable trading range and lower volatility before re - entering the market [1] - Since January 21st, the trading ranges of platinum and palladium have widened. On January 23rd, multiple platinum contracts rose over 9% and multiple palladium contracts rose over 3%. The upward trend is mainly driven by macro factors. With the weakening US dollar and increased market bets on the decline of the US, platinum and palladium are expected to be long - allocated on pullbacks before market liquidity tightens significantly [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogues Economic Data - In November 2025, the US PCE price index annual rate increased by 2.8% (expected 2.7%), and the monthly rate increased by 0.2% (in line with expectations). The core PCE price index annual rate increased by 2.8%, and the monthly rate increased by 0.2% (in line with expectations). The number of initial jobless claims in the week of January 17th was 200,000 (expected 210,000) [3] Greenland Situation - Greenland's pension fund is considering whether to continue investing in US stocks - Trump said no payment is needed for the acquisition of Greenland, and any agreement will allow full access. He threatened major retaliation if Europe sells US assets due to tariff threats and expects progress on Greenland issues in two weeks - Denmark is participating in the Greenland framework agreement negotiation with the US - After Trump withdrew tariff threats, the European Parliament plans to restart the vote on the US - EU trade agreement, but the US Commerce Secretary said the agreement is likely to be shelved [3] Ukraine - US - Russia Relations - Trump said the meeting with Zelensky was "very good". Zelensky said that Ukraine, the US, and Russia will hold a tripartite meeting in the UAE on the 23rd [3]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月23日 | | 豆一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 標｜油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 五米 | ななな | | | 生猪 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约价格从低位回升,并伴随增仓。本周五国产大豆继续进行购销双向交易,交易数量38114吨, 全部成交，底价3950元/吨,成交均价3950元/吨,溢价0元/吨。跟本周三成交价格持平。持续关注政策端和现 货端的指引。 【大豆&豆粕】 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆★ [1] - Methanol: ★☆★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆★ [1] - Propylene: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Olefins: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various chemical products. Some products are expected to have short - term upward trends, while others face supply - demand imbalances and long - term pressure [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose. Supply has no obvious pressure, and downstream factories are more cautious. Plastic and polypropylene futures also rose, but polyethylene will face increased supply pressure and weakening demand, while polypropylene has relatively stable supply but weak demand [2] Polyester - PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, and PTA has none. There is an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival. Ethylene glycol has an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival but may improve in the second quarter. Short fiber has high enterprise load and low inventory but weak downstream orders. Bottle chip has improved processing margin but long - term capacity pressure [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rose, but downstream resistance to high prices increased. Supply decreased, and demand increased, with inventory reduction in East China ports. Styrene futures rose, but high prices may limit its upward space [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose. Port inventory accumulated, but there is strong support from reduced imports in the first quarter. Urea futures were strong, with increased downstream开工 and production enterprise de - stocking [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC was strong, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory increasing. There is a possibility of capacity reduction and export increase this year. Caustic soda had a fluctuating trend, with high inventory and high开工, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration may be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had a slightly strong fluctuating trend, with high inventory pressure. Glass was slightly strong, with inventory increase and possible seasonal inventory accumulation, and low valuation [8]

安如泰山 信守承诺 黄金:地缘风险频现,金价重心抬升 点石成金 2026年以来，围绕委内瑞拉、伊朗以及格陵兰岛的地缘事件纷至沓来，特朗普对于全球秩序的挑战加剧政 治经济前景不确定性,国际金价涨幅接近15%。 过去一周地缘紧张迅速传导至金融市场，VIX波动率指数飙升至12月以来最高水平。今日特朗普称已通过一 项北约协议,将允许美国对格陵兰岛实现全面准入,如果欧洲抛售美国资产,将面临重大报复,并再次重申将 对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征关税。此外有关人士称特朗普政府正寻求年底前推动古巴政权更迭。 国投期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构,已具备期货投资咨询业务资 格。 伴随着国际常规秩序的撕裂，美元信用体系也受到冲击。黄金天然具备充当货币的优良特点，以自然为背 书成为对冲货币信用工具,与美元信用此消彼长。黄金此轮牛市核心逻辑是货币超发,债务膨胀，美元作为全 球法定货币核心地位动摇，黄金价值重估。美债规模已接近39万亿美元，国际货币基金组织预测2030年美国债 务规模超过50万亿美元，占GDP比重将从120%升至140%。近期特朗普在社交平台宣布决定将2027年美国军事预算 从原计划的1万亿美元大幅提升至 ...

轴把:降波后的再择向 点有成金 广期所铂、锂期货12月底开始降波调整,波动区间日窄,整体呈三角形整理,铂价于三角形末 端收敛至615元/克附近：贺价则收敛至480元/克左右。从交易层面看，这2个价格可以视为钩、钟 期货迈过上市初期的高波动之后,多空双方理性博弈的结果,这个结果基本符合我们在年报中对于 ์ 铂 钟 种 和 9%; 钟多个合约涨幅超3%。盘面降波后，铂密方向再次明朗。 基本面预期未见明显变化,铂、肥上行驱动主要来自宏观。虽然美不再对关键资源加征关税, 缓解了铂、妃的结构性矛盾。但在美国抓捕马杜罗之后，特朗普再提武力否并格陵兰岛，加速美、 欧离心,欧洲地售美债进行抵抗的背景下，美元指数加速走弱，更长远的视角看，市场对于美国国 运下行的押注力度仍有提升空间,"钱"和"货"博弈的天平继续向"货"端倾斜,以金银为代表 的贵金属强势上行,资金自然会给铂、密这两个资源瑞高脆性的贡金属品种更多溢价空间。 安如泰山 信守承诺 另外,就钩、把自身基本面预期来看,2026年铂基本面预期强于兜。供应端看,虽然铂妃供应 结构存在较大差异，但二者的供应犹动都相对有限:1）铂、把价格高企,矿山端生产积极性高; 2）俄罗斯产出 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Night session oil prices declined due to geopolitical easing and EIA data showing inventory accumulation [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals were strong as Trump's statements disrupted global order [2] Copper - Overnight LME copper oscillated and rose at the end, with inventory increases and a suggestion of short - selling [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate, with inventory changes and a support level at 23,800 yuan [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It followed SHFE aluminum, with low market activity and cost increases in some areas [5] Alumina - Domestic alumina had over - supply, with cost drops and a weak outlook [6] Zinc - High overseas gas prices supported zinc prices, but weak domestic demand limited the rebound [7] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel oscillated at a high level, while stainless steel faced challenges in high - level transactions [9] Tin - Overnight tin prices oscillated at a high level, affected by precious metals and with inventory changes [9] Lithium Carbonate - It oscillated at a high level, with weak downstream acceptance and slow inventory reduction [10] Industrial Silicon - Futures were driven by supply contraction expectations, but demand was weakening [11] Polysilicon - It showed a strong trend, with potential price increases due to supply cuts and downstream demand [12] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur followed crude oil down, while high - sulfur remained strong, affected by geopolitical factors [20] Asphalt - Cost supported asphalt, but weak demand led to an expected oscillatory - strong trend [21] Group 2: Ferrous Metals and Related Products Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - Night session steel prices rebounded slightly, with inventory and demand changes [13] Iron Ore - The overnight iron ore market oscillated, with supply and demand factors in balance [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Both showed slight rebounds, with carbon supply abundance and downstream pressure [15][16] Manganese Silicon - Prices rebounded slightly, with manganese ore price increases and demand changes [17] Silicon Iron - Prices rebounded, affected by policies and with changes in supply and demand [18] Group 3: Chemicals Urea - Futures prices were oscillating strongly, with production and demand changes [22] Methanol - The market was oscillating, with inventory and demand factors [23] Pure Benzene - Night session prices rose significantly, with supply reduction and demand increase [24] Styrene - Supply was tight, with good sales and export support [25] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene supply was tight, while polyethylene and polypropylene had different supply - demand situations [26] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC was oscillating strongly, and caustic soda had high - inventory and high - production issues [27] PX and PTA - They continued to rise, with different outlooks in the short and medium - term [28] Ethylene Glycol - Production and demand decreased, with a long - term pressure and short - term improvement expectation [29] Short Fibre and Bottle Chip - Short - fibre prices followed raw materials, and bottle - chip had capacity pressure [30] Group 4: Building Materials Glass - Inventory might increase, with low valuation and potential supply changes [31] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - Rubber supply decreased, inventory increased, and the strategy was to go long on rebounds [32] Soda Ash - It faced supply - demand surplus, with a short - term follow - macro and long - term short - selling strategy [33] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans were affected by policies and South American harvests [34] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US policies were positive, and Malaysian palm oil had improved fundamentals [35] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - They might be slightly boosted, but import policies limited the upside [36] Soybean No.1 - Prices rebounded, with attention on policy and spot transactions [37] Corn - Supply was relatively sufficient, and futures were expected to oscillate [38] Live Pigs - Futures rebounded slightly, and prices were expected to have a low point next year [39] Eggs - Futures rose significantly, and the long - term strategy was to buy on dips [40] Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton was oscillating, with inventory and demand factors [41] Sugar - International and domestic production differences affected prices, with short - term pressure [42] Apples - Futures were oscillating, with attention on demand and inventory removal [43] Wood - Prices were low, supported by low inventory [44] Pulp - Futures rose slightly, with inventory and demand factors, and a light - long strategy [45] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - share indexes rose, with different performances in futures contracts, and a complex outlook [46] Treasury Bonds - Futures slightly declined, and a short - short - bond strategy was suggested [47] Group 7: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot prices were expected to decline, and futures were likely to oscillate [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar support oil prices, but inventory accumulation limits the upside potential [2]. - Precious metals are likely to remain strong in the medium - term, with short - term adjustments to fix overbought technical indicators [3]. - Most commodities are expected to show a pattern of short - term fluctuations, and investors need to pay attention to supply - demand changes, geopolitical risks, and policy impacts [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The US strengthens military deployment in the Middle East. Kazakhstan's oil production may be suspended. The IEA raises the 2026 demand forecast, with reduced first - quarter supply surplus. Venezuelan exports are slow, and oil price rebound is limited [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are dominant. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term but pressured in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has winter demand support but faces supply pressure [22]. - **Asphalt**: Military actions in the Middle East and oil price rebounds drive asphalt up. There are concerns about future raw material shortages [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated downward. The medium - term strength remains unchanged, with short - term adjustments [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell. The US market premium cooled, and a short - position strategy is recommended in the domestic market [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The 23,800 - yuan level is supported, and it's advisable to wait and see [5]. - **Zinc**: Supply - side pressure is limited, but high prices have a negative impact on consumption. Zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, with a medium - term short - selling strategy [8]. - **Lead**: The lead price fluctuates between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. Low - buying is recommended [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level. The negative feedback risk of stainless - steel consumption is increasing, but the short - term is still dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is maintained [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices opened high and closed low. A strategy of selling call options at a high level is recommended [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has risen sharply, but the downstream acceptance is low. The price is in a high - level shock, and risk prevention is needed [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures fluctuate. The supply reduction expectation is controversial, and the demand has no clear increase. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the implementation of major factory production cuts should be tracked [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is light. Production is expected to decline, and the futures fluctuate around 50,000 yuan/ton. Wait for the exchange's guidance [14]. - **Iron and Steel** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rebounded slightly. Rebar demand is weak, and hot - rolled coil de - stocking is slow. The market will fluctuate in a range [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipping volume decreased, and the domestic arrival volume declined. The port inventory is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [16]. - **Coke**: The price rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and it is likely to follow a weak - shock pattern [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and it is likely to follow a weak - shock pattern [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated downward. Manganese ore prices rose, and iron - water production decreased. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated downward. Affected by policies, the demand is resilient, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The spot price is weakly stable. Production increases, demand starts, and the long - term decline space is limited [24]. - **Methanol**: The futures fluctuate strongly. Demand decreases, inventory accumulates, but there is support from reduced imports in Q1, and it is expected to be in a stalemate [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - session price rose. Supply decreases, demand increases, and the short - term trend is strong [26]. - **Styrene**: Some domestic producers' sales are good, and the supply is tight, providing support [27]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Supply and demand are both weak. Some markets have supply shortages, but downstream demand is weak [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is weak, and there is a possibility of capacity reduction. Caustic soda is also weak with high inventory [29]. - **PX & PTA**: There is pressure in the short - term, but there are opportunities for PX processing spreads and month - spreads in Q2 [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. There is a short - term inventory accumulation expectation, but improvement is expected in Q2 [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chips**: Short - fiber follows cost fluctuations, and bottle - chip processing spreads have improved, but long - term capacity pressure exists [32]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybeans fluctuate strongly at the bottom. South American weather is improving, and the focus is on export and weather [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: US bio - fuel policies are positive for soybean oil. Indonesian palm oil policies are uncertain, and Malaysian palm oil supply - demand improves marginally [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The external market rises, the domestic supply is tight in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [38]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of domestic soybeans fell. Pay attention to policy and spot guidance [39]. - **Corn**: The supply is relatively sufficient. The futures are expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to sales progress and auctions [40]. - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Pigs**: The futures fell for three consecutive days. The short - term rebound may end, and there may be a low point next year [41]. - **Eggs**: The futures fluctuate. The long - term fundamental improvement is expected, and a long - position strategy is recommended on dips [42]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton fell, and Zheng cotton fluctuates at a high level. The demand is stable, and the supply reduction policy has uncertainties [43]. - **Sugar**: International production varies, and domestic production progress is different. The short - term price faces pressure [44]. - **Apples**: The futures price回调. The focus is on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [45]. - **Timber**: The price is low. Low inventory provides support, and it's advisable to wait and see [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures fell slightly. The demand is weak, inventory accumulates, and it's advisable to wait and see [47]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Spot prices are expected to decline, and near - term contracts have limited downside. The market will enter an observation period before the Spring Festival, and the focus of far - term contracts is the resumption of navigation [21]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and the short - term trend is expected to be upward. The medium - term trend depends on the transition to profit - driven [48]. - **Treasury Bonds**: 30 - year treasury bond futures rose. Pay attention to potential curve - flattening opportunities and market warming signals [49].

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