安如泰山 信守承诺 棉花: 美棉产量下调，报告偏多 USDA 棉花月度报告解读 2025/26年度供需数据调整情况: 美国农业部1月份的报告中，美棉产量下调幅度高于市场预期，全球产量调整幅度较小，全球棉花需求稳中咯 增,最终期末库存有所下调，报告影响偏多。 25/26年度全球产量下调7.7万吨，其中印度产量下调10.8万吨，美国产量下调7.7万吨，土耳其产量下调4.4万 吨,中国产量上调21.8万吨,全球产量仍处于相对偏高的位置,供给或仍相对宽松。美国产量在从929磅/英亩 下调至856磅/英亩，收获面积从7.37百万英亩上调只7.8百万英亩，播种面积从9.3百万英亩小幅下调至9.28百 万英亩，最终美棉产量下调7.7万吨。 25/26年度全球消费环比上调6.8万吨，其中中国消费上调10.9万吨只849.1万吨，全球消费总体持稳。 25/26年度棉花进口环比上调0.5万吨，其中土耳其进口下调2.1万吨，印度进口上调4.3万吨，其余主要进口国 均未作调整。全球出口上调0.6万吨，其中澳大利亚出口上调4.4万吨，印度出口上调2.2万吨。 全球25/26期末库存环比下调32.4万吨,其中中国期末库存上调10.9万吨 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Research Institution: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group - Report Date: January 13, 2026 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, there is little change in the long - short ratio of commodities. The factor strength of the precious metals sector remains high, the energy sector rebounds slightly, and the black and agricultural product sectors decline slightly. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors are relatively strong in the cross - section, while the black and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak. The comprehensive signal of each variety has different trends, including long, neutral, and short signals [3]. Summary by Related Content 1. Commodity Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals**: The time - series momentum of gold drops slightly but remains in a relatively strong range, and the trading volume of silver continues to increase marginally [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector continues to rise, and the term structure differentiation expands [3]. - **Black Metals**: The time - series momentum of the black sector drops slightly marginally. The momentum of rebar decreases, while that of coking coal and coke increases [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The short - cycle momentum cross - section differentiation of the energy and chemical sector expands, and PTA is at the long end of the cross - section. The term structure of the chemical sector shows differentiation [3][2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Except for corn, the short - cycle momentum of agricultural products drops slightly [3]. 2. Strategy Net Value and Factor Analysis - **General Situation**: In terms of strategy net value, different factors have different trends. For some varieties, the supply factor, demand factor, inventory factor, and spread factor show different degrees of strength or weakness, and the synthetic factors also have corresponding changes. The comprehensive signals include long, neutral, and short [5][13][15]. - **Methanol**: The supply factor strengthens by 0.33% last week, the demand factor rises by 0.05%, the inventory factor increases by 0.04%, the spread factor strengthens by 0.32%, and the synthetic factor rises by 0.30%. The comprehensive signal this week is long. The import volume of methanol decreases, the demand is neutral, the inventory releases a long signal, and the spread is neutral to short [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply factor has a 0.00% return last week and 0.39% monthly return, the demand factor is - 0.04% last week and - 0.07% monthly return, the inventory factor is 0.00% last week and 0.97% monthly return, the spread factor is 0.00% last week and 1.79% monthly return, and the synthetic factor is - 0.01% last week and 0.84% monthly return. The comprehensive signal is neutral. The supply is short, the demand is neutral, the inventory is long, and the spread is neutral [13]. - **Lead**: The demand factor weakens by 0.04% last week, the synthetic factor drops by 0.01%, and the comprehensive signal this week is short. The supply is short, the inventory turns neutral, and the spread is neutral [13]. - **Float Glass**: The supply factor strengthens by 1.03% last week, the demand factor rises by 1.09%, the inventory factor weakens by 0.02%, the profit factor drops by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor rises by 0.81%. The comprehensive signal is neutral. The supply is neutral, the demand turns neutral, the inventory is long, and the profit is short [15]. 3. Performance Data | Variety | Last Week's Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | General (First Table) | 0.33 (Supply), 0.05 (Demand), 0.04 (Inventory), 0.32 (Spread), 0.30 (Synthetic) | 0.38 (Supply), 0.48 (Demand), 0.43 (Inventory), 0.32 (Spread), 0.60 (Synthetic) | | General (Second Table) | 1.03 (Supply), 1.09 (Demand), - 0.02 (Inventory), - 0.21 (Profit), 0.81 (Synthetic) | 2.13 (Supply), 2.96 (Demand), 0.39 (Inventory), 0.25 (Spread), 0.14 (Profit), 2.13 (Synthetic) | | General (Third Table) | 0.00 (Supply), 0.00 (Inventory), 0.51 (Spread), 0.24 (Synthetic) | 0.00 (Supply), - 0.68 (Inventory), 0.83 (Spread), 0.18 (Synthetic) | | Iron Ore | 0.00 (Supply), - 0.04 (Demand), 0.00 (Inventory), 0.00 (Spread), - 0.01 (Synthetic) | 0.39 (Supply), - 0.07 (Demand), 0.97 (Inventory), 1.79 (Spread), 0.84 (Synthetic) | | Lead | - 0.04 (Demand), - 0.01 (Synthetic) | Not fully detailed | | Float Glass | 1.03 (Supply), 1.09 (Demand), - 0.02 (Inventory), - 0.21 (Profit), 0.81 (Synthetic) | Not fully detailed | 4. Sector Momentum and Other Data | Sector | Momentum Time - series | Momentum Cross - section | Term Structure | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black Metals | 1.46 | 0.33 | 1.1 | 0.33 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 0.85 | - 2.49 | 0.83 | 0.92 | | Energy and Chemicals | - 0.38 | 0 | 1.03 | 1.46 | | Agricultural Products | - 0.6 | 0.81 | 1.83 | - 1.82 | | Stock Index | 0.06 | 0.78 | - 0.25 | 1.37 | | Precious Metals | 1.01 | Not provided | Not provided | 0.56 | [6]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks in Iran drive up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to significant inventory pressure and supply surplus in Q1 2026 [2] Precious Metals - International gold and silver hit new highs. Geopolitical chaos and concerns about the Fed's independence make precious metals easy to rise and hard to fall [3] Copper - Overnight copper prices rose. Sentiment from Powell's possible prosecution and market spread logistics support copper prices. A previous option strategy can still be held [4] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum briefly broke through 25,000 yuan and then fell. It's important to see if it can stabilize above 24,800 yuan. Aluminum producers can consider selling hedging [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It follows aluminum price fluctuations passively. Scrap aluminum is tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum will be weaker than usual [6] Alumina - Domestic operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, with a significant surplus. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures face resistance at 3,000 yuan [7] Zinc - Domestic and imported ore TC are low. Supply pressure is not significant in the short - term. Consumption is picking up after the holiday. It is expected to fluctuate between 23,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Bullish sentiment is strong in the Shanghai lead market. The cost of recycled lead is rising, providing support. It is expected to fluctuate between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is active. Stainless steel production is expected to increase in January. The short - term is still dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is recommended [10] Tin - Overnight, Shanghai tin continued to rise. The market gives high premiums to semiconductor consumption and geopolitics. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11] Lithium Carbonate - It hit the daily limit again. Demand is expected to surge in Q1. The inventory situation is complex, and the futures price is strong but with high short - term uncertainty [12] Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate. Consider short - selling if it breaks through 9,000 yuan/ton [13] Polysilicon - The cancellation of export tax rebates boosts short - term demand, but the market sentiment is weak. The price is seeking cost support [14] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices were weak at night. Demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and inventory is changing. Iron ore supply is strong, and demand is weak. Both are expected to fluctuate [15][16] Coke and Coking Coal - Both prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is at a low level in the off - season [17][18] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon prices fell. The manganese ore inventory has a structural problem. Ferrosilicon supply decreased, and demand has some resilience. Both suggest buying on dips [19][20] Group 2: Chemicals Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The cancellation of export tax rebates may stimulate pre - shipment. The impact on spot freight rates needs further observation [21] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil follows crude oil. Geopolitical risks affect high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur supply is expected to increase [22] Asphalt - Crude oil rebounds, but asphalt futures are weak. Pay attention to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [23] Urea - The futures price is firm. Production is increasing, and demand is picking up. The price may decline slightly in the short - term [24] Methanol - Overseas supply is low, and domestic production is high. Demand is weakening, and the driving force for price increase is weakening [25] Pure Benzene - Import is sufficient, and the port inventory is high. It is affected by oil prices in the short - term and has difficulty in de - stocking in the long - term [26] Styrene - Crude oil price increase supports the cost. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is rising [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Supply is supported. Polyethylene has cost support, and polypropylene has reduced production due to more maintenance [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is weak. It may have export - driven arbitrage opportunities. Caustic soda is weak, and the industry may face profit compression [29] PX and PTA - Polyester demand will decline, but oil price rebound provides support. PX has a strong long - term expectation, and PTA's processing margin is moderately repaired [30] Ethylene Glycol - Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. It is under pressure in the short - term and may improve in Q2 [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber demand is weakening, and bottle - chip demand is turning weak. Both follow raw material prices [32] Group 3: Building Materials Glass - It is weak. Supply is shrinking, and demand is insufficient. Consider buying on dips after a long - term decline [33] Rubber - Natural rubber supply is decreasing, and synthetic rubber supply is increasing. Demand is slowly recovering. The strategy is to go long on natural rubber and wait and see on butadiene rubber [34] Soda Ash - It is weak. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Consider short - selling on rebounds [35] Group 4: Agricultural Products Soybeans, Bean Meal, and Bean Oil - USDA data shows an increase in soybean supply. Bean meal may follow the weak trend of US soybeans. Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by supply, policy, and weather [36][37] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The US Department of Agriculture report is bearish on rapeseed. The market expects the improvement of China - Canada relations to put pressure on rapeseed prices [38] Domestic Soybeans - Spot prices are rising. Supply is tight at the grassroots level, but demand is cautious. Pay attention to policies and the spot market [39] Corn - Northeast spot prices are firm. US corn prices fell after the USDA report. Dalian corn futures are expected to fluctuate widely [40] Livestock and Poultry - Pig prices are oscillating. Supply pressure is high before the Spring Festival, and a second bottom is possible in the medium - long term. Egg prices may strengthen in H1 2026 due to supply and demand changes [41][42] Cotton - US cotton prices are strong due to reduced production. Zhengzhou cotton is adjusting. Demand is stable in the off - season [43] Sugar - International sugar production varies by country. Domestic sugar may rebound weakly due to production expectations [44] Apples - Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. The market focuses on demand, and the high price and poor quality may affect inventory clearance [45] Wood and Pulp - Wood prices are low. Supply and demand are weak, and low inventory provides some support. Pulp prices are limited by weak demand, and inventory is increasing [46][47] Group 5: Financial Products Stock Index - The Shanghai Composite Index had a 17 - day consecutive rise. A - share trading volume hit a record high. The stock index futures are expected to be strong [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose on January 12. A bull - flattening trend between 10 - 30Y is expected [48]

Intel 国投期货 原油: 供需宽松主导全年，价格中枢下移 国投期货研究院 根据IEA评估，2025年全球汽油需求预计达到2740万桶/目的峰值并在随后年份步入下滑通道： 郑若金 Z0011388 2026年1月 11/11/1 国投期货 需求展望 The Station the was and the 川川 历年布伦特原油价格走势 美元/桶 布伦特均价 ——近十年累计平均值 —— 近二十年累计平均值 ----自1976年以来累计平均值 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 数据来源：BP，路透，国投期货 % 汽油需求：全球需求达峰，区域分化明显 图:全球汽油需求 国新能源汽车销量及渗透率 图：美国汽油表观消费量 汽油消费增速 = 用消费 28 10% 5% 26 24 202 ZOZ coz ZOZ coz ZOZ ZOZ ZOZ ZOZ 202 ＞ 从 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is ★★★, and for treasury bond futures is ★★★ [1] Core View - As of the week ending January 9, all four major stock index futures rose, with IH2601 up 3.60%, IF2601 up 3.17%, IC2601 up 8.49%, and IM2601 up 7.66%. There is a certain pressure for market correction, but market sentiment may remain resilient. The financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy's net value rose 0.35% last week. The short - cycle of treasury bonds rebounded at the beginning of the year, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was significant [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - fundamental Medium - high - frequency Factor Scores - Among economic kinetic energy indicators, the weekly changes of blast furnace开工率,开工率 of PTA in China, etc. varied, with some rising and some falling. The stock index futures score was 7, and the treasury bond futures score was 8 [2] Inflation Indicators - Different inflation - related product prices showed various weekly changes. For instance, the vegetable basket product wholesale price 200 index fell 0.57%, while the CITIC coking coal industry index rose 3.26%. The stock index futures score was 8, and the treasury bond futures score was 7 [3] Liquidity - Liquidity - related indicators such as DR007, DR001, etc. had different weekly changes. The stock index futures score for liquidity was 9 [4] Index Valuation - Index valuation indicators like PE (TTM), PS (TTM) rose, while the dividend yield (last 12 months) fell. The stock index futures score was 11 [5] Market Sentiment: Stock Index - Stock - market sentiment indicators like margin trading balance, A - share trading volume on the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed different changes. The stock index futures - related market sentiment score was 9 [6] Market Sentiment: Bond - Bond - market sentiment indicators such as the yield of 10 - year government bonds, 500 volatility index had different weekly changes. The treasury bond futures score was 5 [7] Strategy Introduction (Financial Futures Allocation Strategy) - The strategy aims to achieve stable net - value growth by using a multi - strategy model to allocate contracts in the financial futures market. The short - cycle model focuses on high - frequency financial data, and the long - cycle model focuses on low - frequency macroeconomic data [15] Forecast Signals and Last Week's Situation - The comprehensive signals of different futures contracts were calculated by weighted synthesis of three independent models. Last week, the trading signals of different futures contracts on different dates mostly showed 0 [16][18] Treasury Bond Futures Cross - variety Arbitrage Strategy - The strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor uses the Nelson - Siegel instantaneous forward - rate function. The actual operation uses a 1:1.8 ratio for 10 - 5Y spread adjustment [19] Market Quotes and Trading Signals - The trading signals of TF and T main contracts from January 5 to January 9, 2026, were mainly 0, with a single 1 for the N - S model signal on January 7 [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a one-star rating (★☆☆) for the CITIC Five-Style - Growth, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 5.06%, -0.15%, and 2.54% respectively. The ordinary stock strategy led the gains in the public fund market with a weekly return of 5.26%, while neutral strategy products had more declines than gains. Convertible bond strategy outperformed pure bond strategy, and precious metal ETFs in commodities rebounded with gold ETFs rising 2.91% and non-ferrous metal ETFs continuing the upward trend [3] - Among the CITIC five styles, the growth style led the gains last week with a weekly return of 7.03%. The style rotation chart shows that the relative strength of the consumption and financial styles has strengthened marginally recently, while the relative strength momentum of the cyclical style has weakened slightly. Consumption and financial style funds in the public fund pool outperformed their benchmarks on average in the past week. The market's deviation from the growth and stable styles has increased according to the fund style coefficient trend. The congestion indicator decreased week-on-week, and the congestion levels of cyclical and consumption style funds have risen to the medium to high percentile range in history [3] - In terms of Barra factors, the liquidity factor had a better performance in the past week with a weekly excess return of 2.11%, while the dividend and profitability factors had excess drawdowns. In terms of win - rate, the short - term momentum factor strengthened marginally and the leverage factor weakened slightly. The cross - sectional rotation speed of factors rebounded slightly this week and is currently in the middle percentile range in the past year. According to the latest score of the style timing model, the consumption and growth styles rebounded month - on - month this week, and the signal is biased towards the growth style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 4.96%, with an excess return of 1.08% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Market Returns - The weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond (net), and Nanhua Commodity Index are presented, along with their monthly, quarterly, and semi - annual returns. The weekly return of the ordinary stock strategy in the public fund market is 5.26% [3][5] CITIC Style Index Relative Rotation Chart - It shows the relative strength and relative strength momentum of financial, cyclical, consumption, growth, and stable styles in the past week, last week, past month, past three months, past six months, and past year [7] Fund Style Index Excess Return Performance - Displays the excess returns of financial, cyclical, consumption, and growth styles in the past week, last week, past month, past three months, past six months, and past year [8] Fund Style Congestion - Illustrates the congestion levels of cyclical, growth, consumption, and financial styles over a certain period [9] CITIC Style Index Net Value Trend - Presents the net value trends of financial, cyclical, consumption, growth, and stable styles [10] This Week's Barra Single - Factor Style Preference - Shows the style preference of Barra single factors [11] Barra Single - Factor Style Strategy Excess Return Performance - Displays the excess returns of Barra single - factor style strategies in the past week, last week, and past month [12] One - Year Barra Single - Factor Style Excess Net Value Trend - Illustrates the excess net value trends of Barra single factors over the past year [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Rating**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn, and Live Hogs are rated as "★★★" [1] - **Neutral Rating**: Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil are rated as "★☆☆" [1] - **Sell Rating**: Eggs are rated as "★☆☆" [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs. It offers insights into their current market conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and price trends, and provides corresponding investment strategies and suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean - The spot price of domestic soybeans showed an upward trend last week. Policy - based auction sales had high premiums and high transaction rates. The futures contract saw profit - taking at high positions. Supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, and the market features high - quality products commanding high prices. However, price increases have dampened demand. Policy is increasing supply. Short - term focus should be on policies and the spot market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Attention should be paid to the USDA's January supply - demand report. The upside space for US soybeans is limited, and South American weather is favorable, with a 68% probability of ENSO neutrality in Q1. If South American weather remains stable, soybean meal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate weakly [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Malaysia's January MPOB report showed a slight decline in production and improved demand, but inventory increased to the second - highest level since 2007. After the report, palm oil prices rose due to the game between Malaysia's weak supply - demand situation and Indonesia's policy of raising export taxes and confiscating illegal plantations [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The focus this week is on the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. The market expects Sino - Canadian relations to ease, which may put pressure on rapeseed products. If relations do not improve, prices may rebound due to low domestic inventories. As of January 9, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory increased to 60,000 tons [6] Corn - Corn futures continued to rise, with the main contract C20603 up 1.19%. Northeast spot prices were stable with an upward bias, and some Shandong deep - processing enterprises raised purchase prices. Overall inventory is low, and the selling progress is fast. The short - term Dalian corn futures will fluctuate widely [7] Live Hogs - The live hog market remained volatile. Prices of live hogs and piglets rebounded, and industry profits approached the break - even point. The reduction of sows slowed down. Second - fattening is still taking place, supporting short - term prices. However, the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is high, and the upside space is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a high probability of a second bottom in H1 next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures market declined slightly on Monday with an increase of 25,000 lots in open interest. Spot prices strengthened after New Year's Day. Low chick replenishment from August to December will lead to a decline in laying hens in H1 2026. With pre - Spring Festival demand, egg prices are expected to rise [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various soft commodities are different, with some facing supply - demand imbalances and others affected by seasonal factors. Overall, most commodities are currently recommended for a wait - and - see approach, with only 20 - rubber and natural rubber having a bullish strategy [2][3][6] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline with reduced positions in the main contract. Spot sales were average, and the mainstream basis range of cotton spot remained stable. As of December, the national commercial cotton inventory increased. It's in the off - season, but demand is stable. The processing volume of lint cotton increased. The reduction in Xinjiang's planting area was less than expected. Spinning enterprises' raw material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it's recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Internationally, the focus is on the production expectation gap in the Northern Hemisphere. India's production in the 25/26 season is progressing fast with a significant increase, while Thailand's is slow and below expectations. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In December, Guangxi's production and sales both decreased. The production data is relatively bullish. The slow production in Guangxi may lead to a upward repair of futures prices if production doesn't increase later. It's recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated at a high level. In Gansu, procurement was active, and in Shaanxi, the price was stable. During the Spring Festival stocking, merchants mainly packaged their own goods, and the procurement of farmers' goods was less. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. Apple quality is poor this year, but the purchase price is high, and the hoarding sentiment may affect the de - stocking speed. It's recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - Rubber & Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber first declined and then rose. The spot prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber were stable. Global natural rubber supply entered the production - reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. The domestic tire operating rate declined, and rubber inventories increased. Demand is slowly recovering, and the cost support is strengthening. The strategy for RU&NR is bullish, and for BR, it's to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp slightly declined today. Limited by weak downstream demand, its short - term upward space may be restricted. The inventory at major Chinese pulp ports increased. The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaved pulp is narrowing. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp for rigid demand, and the increase in base paper prices is weak. It's recommended to wait for a significant correction [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price in Taicang increased. The external price decreased, and the domestic spot price was weak, with a short - term decrease in arrivals. The daily average outbound volume at 13 national ports increased, and the total inventory at national ports increased slightly but remained low with relatively small pressure. Low inventory supports the price. It's recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the short - term drive up oil prices, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to significant inventory pressure and supply surplus in the global crude oil market in Q1 2026 [3] - The unilateral trend of fuel oil mainly follows the cost side of crude oil, and geopolitical situations affect both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil markets [4] - The recent rebound in crude oil has little impact on asphalt futures prices, and the reduction of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China may impact domestic asphalt raw material supply [5] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - The geopolitical situation in Iran is tense but controllable, and the US continues to seize Venezuelan oil tankers, which drives up oil prices in the short - term [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply - demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus restricts the upward space of oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The unilateral trend of fuel oil follows the cost side of crude oil, and geopolitical tensions are the key driving factors [4] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, US military actions against Venezuela may affect heavy - crude oil supply, and domestic refineries may increase fuel oil use as an alternative raw material for asphalt production. Inventory consumption may appear in late March, and raw material procurement demand may support the high - sulfur market after the Spring Festival in mid - February [4] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the Azur refinery's CDU device has fully resumed operation, and the supply scale is expected to gradually increase. The overseas supply rebound brings loose pressure, keeping the fundamentals weak [4] Asphalt - The recent crude oil rebound has not affected asphalt futures prices significantly [5] - Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers may impact domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later, and the current market has priced in the expected tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China [5] - Attention should be paid to the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, polypropylene, plastic, short - fiber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pure benzene, styrene, PX, PTA, glass: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, PVC: ★☆☆, showing a bullish trend but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caustic soda: ★☆★, with unclear short - term trend and limited operability [1] - Soda ash: ★☆☆, with a bullish trend but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various chemical futures are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, cost, and geopolitical risks. Different products have different trends and investment opportunities in the short, medium, and long - term [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with supply support due to planned maintenance of local PDH plants and reduced inventory [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures rose. Polyethylene had cost support and tight spot supply, while polypropylene had reduced supply due to more maintenance and stable demand from downstream [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rose due to cost and downstream factors, but faced difficulties in de - stocking in the long - term [3] - Styrene futures rose, with a tight supply - demand balance, falling port inventory, and a good export market [3] Polyester - PX and PTA demand will decline due to pre - and post - Spring Festival maintenance, but oil price recovery provides a rebound drive [4] - Ethylene glycol has an expected increase in domestic supply and a decrease in overseas supply, with short - term pressure and potential improvement in the second quarter [4] - Short - fiber demand is weak, and its price fluctuates with raw materials [4] - Bottle - grade polyester demand is weakening, with a supply - demand double - decline before the Spring Festival and long - term over - capacity pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol faced adjustment after a rise, with expected port de - stocking but weakening demand [5] - Urea prices were stable with a slight decline, with increased production and demand, and limited downward space [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices fluctuated due to export tax - rebate news, with a possible long - term increase in price center [6] - Caustic soda prices were weak, with limited upward space [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash faced supply pressure and limited demand, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [7] - Glass had reduced supply and demand pressure, with opportunities for long - position entry after a long - term decline [7]