1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - The prices of various chemical futures show different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policies [2][3][4] - Some products are expected to have supply - demand changes in the short - and medium - term, which will impact their prices [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures continued to rise. Enterprises had smooth shipments and raised offers. Downstream demand was good, and the transaction center shifted upward [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures rose. For polyethylene, the market improved macroscopically after the holiday, and factors like cost support and reduced market supply increased trading activity. For polypropylene, stable or rising factory prices supported costs, and the pressure of spot circulation was controllable, but downstream factories were cautious [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene futures rose slightly. The spot price in East China rebounded, and trading in Shandong improved. Imports were sufficient, and port inventory in Jiangsu continued to accumulate. Domestic supply increased, and downstream demand rose slightly. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and a long spread trade can be considered in the medium - term [3] - The main contract of styrene futures continued to move sideways under the suppression of the half - year line. Production and sales of enterprises were stable, and the spot trading atmosphere was average. Export news supported market sentiment, but the continuous inventory build - up of raw material pure benzene suppressed the rebound [3] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA futures fluctuated widely, and positions decreased. Terminal demand weakened, and polyester cash flow was still poor. Before the Spring Festival,开工 is expected to decline, and demand has negative feedback pressure. In the short - term, external disturbances increase; in the medium - term, the strong expectation of PX remains, and PTA's main driver is raw materials [4] - For ethylene glycol, new domestic plants are about to be put into operation, and overseas plants are shutting down due to poor profitability. Polyester is expected to reduce production around the Spring Festival, and port inventory continues to accumulate. In the long - term, it is still under pressure, but there may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [4] - Short - fiber enterprises have low inventory, but downstream demand is weak. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Band trading can be carried out according to production and demand rhythms [4] - Demand for bottle chips has weakened. The price of the futures follows raw materials, and the spot price has loosened in some areas. There are new investments in the short - term and maintenance in the future. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and cost is the main driver [4] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures market adjusted in a fluctuating manner. Overseas plant operating rates are low, and shipments in the Middle East have slowed down. South American supply is uncertain. High coastal inventory may suppress the market in the short - term, but imports are expected to decrease significantly in the medium - term, and the port is expected to gradually reduce inventory [5] - The urea market oscillated strongly. Gas - fired plants were shut down for maintenance, commercial reserves increased at low prices, and industrial demand was mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to rise slightly in the near future, and production enterprises are continuously reducing inventory. The supply - demand situation is temporarily tight, and the market is expected to be strong in the short - term [5] Chlor - Alkali - Affected by Shaanxi's policy on high - energy - consuming industries, PVC continued to rise. Maintenance scale decreased, supply increased, but downstream demand was weak. Production enterprises were reducing inventory, and social inventory pressure was high. In 2026, PVC is expected to reduce production capacity, and the price center is expected to rise [6] - Affected by Shaanxi's differential electricity price policy and positive macro sentiment, caustic soda oscillated strongly. The chlorine market is good, and integrated enterprises still have profits, supporting high - level operation of production. Alumina production is at a high level, but the industry is generally losing money. The future production reduction of alumina will suppress the rebound of caustic soda [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Driven by rising upstream costs and improved trading, soda ash rose strongly. The market sentiment led to inventory replenishment, and some enterprises stopped taking orders. Future supply pressure is high. Float glass and photovoltaic glass are expected to continue to reduce production capacity, and the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to decline. In the short - term, pay attention to coal price changes; in the long - term, soda ash faces over - supply pressure [7] - Driven by positive macro sentiment, glass rose strongly. Recent spot trading was good. Four production lines were shut down recently, and all three types of fuel - based production lines are losing money. Future production capacity is expected to continue to be reduced. Processing orders are still weak, and demand is insufficient. The industry is expected to reduce production capacity in the long - term, and daily melting is expected to fall below 150,000 tons [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain strong in the short term as the market sentiment warms up and the steel price follows the cost center upward, but the overall domestic demand is still weak [2]. - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation, and there is a risk of increased high-level volatility in the future, although there is still some rigid replenishment demand [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets face certain fundamental pressures after the price correction, but the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, leading to intensified capital games on the disk [4][6]. - The silicon manganese market is recommended to buy on dips, with attention paid to the "anti-involution" impact [7]. - The ferrosilicon market is relatively strong, and it is also recommended to buy on dips, with attention paid to the "anti-involution" impact [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market rebounded significantly today. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel declined, production increased, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot-rolled coil recovered, production increased synchronously, and inventory continued to decrease, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. The steel mill's profit margin has been repaired, the blast furnace production reduction has slowed down significantly, and the molten iron has stabilized and rebounded in the short term. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rose significantly today. On the supply side, global shipments declined seasonally, and the domestic arrival volume increased month-on-month. The port inventory continued to accumulate. On the demand side, the terminal demand was weak in the off-season, and although the steel mill's profitability improved recently, there was no obvious resumption of production in the short term. The steel mill's imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level, and there was still some rigid replenishment demand in the future [3]. Coke - The coke price hit the daily limit today. The coking profit is average, and the daily production decreased slightly. The coke inventory increased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers purchase on demand in small quantities, and traders have average purchasing intentions. Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, and although the downstream molten iron is at a seasonal low, the demand for raw materials remains resilient. The steel mill still has a strong intention to suppress raw material prices [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price hit the daily limit today. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume decreased, and the negative pressure on the price decreased slightly. The coking coal mine production decreased slightly. At the end of the year, some coal mines reduced or stopped production due to factors such as safety production and the completion of the annual production task. The spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly while the production-side inventory decreased slightly [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market fluctuated upward today. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore increased. Currently, there is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. The iron water production decreased seasonally on the demand side, the weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly, and the silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures market fluctuated upward today. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee increased, leading to a certain expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, the iron water production rebounded to a high level, the export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact was not significant. The metal magnesium production increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly [8].

| 国投邮货 111 | | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月07日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ 白银 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 今日贵金属冲高回落。美国对委内瑞拉军事行动以及特朗普一系列强势言论体现全球地缘乱局延续，贵金属 牛市逻辑不改,资金情绪主导 ...

| 112 > 國投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月07日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F3066912 Z0016785 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | 沥青 ☆☆☆ | | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 今日原油下行。地缘消息对油价的影响边际趋弱,当前原油市场处于供应过剩的累库阶段,EIA,IEA,OPEC均预 估202601全球面临较大累库压力。美委局势难以提供持续性基本面支撑，且美国行动意在接管委石油资源，若 后续制裁放松，外资进入,委油产量甚至可能增加。综上,油价仍将受共需宽松格局主导,维持中枢下行趋 势。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 受隔夜原油市场疲软拖累,今日燃料油跟随成本端大幅低开,整体维持弱势运行。当前市场交易重心仍集中于 地缘因素对原料端的犹动:委内瑞拉局势引发的供应波动属短期交易题材,其远期供应恢复 ...

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安如泰山 信守承诺 【国投期货|化工视点】陕西差别电价对氯碱行业的影响 点有成金 《陕西省发展和改革委员会陕西省工业和信息化厅关于执行差别电价有关事项的通知（征求意见稿）》中 提到: 按照国家发展改革委、工业和信息化部等部门文件规定, 铁合金、电石、烧碱、水泥、钢铁、黄磷、锌 治炼7个行业（以下简称"铁合金等行业"）限制类产能电价每千瓦时加价0.1 元，淘汰类产能电价每千瓦时加 价0.3元(其中水泥淘汰类产能每千瓦时加价0.4元、钢铁海汰类产能每千瓦时加价0.5元)。各相关企业应于2026 年5 月底前完成技术改造或淘汰落后产能。其他未按期完成技术改造或淘汰落后产能的企业，由电网企业根据 省发展改革委、省工业和信息化厅公布的清单，自 2026年7月 1 日起收取加价电费。2026 年7 月后完成技术 改造或淘汰落后产能的企业，可按照上述程序申请退出执行差别电价的企业清单。 该文件是2025年12月公布，目前是征求意见稿，暂不清楚是否执行落地，持续关注。该文件中，陕西地区 电石大部分属于限制类产能，个别属于淘汰类产能，烧碱属于限制类产能。 1、对烧碱的影响分析 烧碱陕西省产能占比为3.31%，主要是陕西金泰的8 ...

| Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月06日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉大幅上涨，持仓继续增加,商品整体偏强,市场做多情绪偏高;现货销售一般,基差总体持稳。虽然新棉增产幅度较 大,但商业库存同比偏低,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月25号,累计 加工皮棉669.7万吨，同比增加75.8万吨，较过去四年均值增加141.4万吨。国内商业库存同比偏 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex trends with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical events, and cost [2][3][5] - Some products have short - term fluctuations due to factors like oil price and policy, while long - term trends are related to supply - demand balance and capacity changes [5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose as market sentiment improved and inventory was low [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also increased. PE was supported by macro factors and cost, and PP was supported by factory prices and inventory control [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated. High imports and inventory pressured the market, but there was a mid - line opportunity for positive spread arbitrage [3] - Styrene futures were stable. Production was smooth, and export news supported the market [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rose with oil price and market sentiment. Polyester demand was weak, and the industry faced negative feedback [5] - Ethylene glycol had an expected increase in domestic supply and a decrease in overseas supply. It was pressured in the long - term but might improve in Q2 [5] - Short fiber prices followed raw materials. It was necessary to pay attention to downstream stocking [5] - Bottle chip demand weakened. It was cost - driven and faced long - term over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose due to geopolitical events. Coastal inventory might suppress the short - term market, but imports were expected to decrease in the medium - term [6] - Urea prices kept rising. Supply recovery was slow, and demand was expected to increase [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC rose due to a policy. Supply increased, demand was low, and there was a possibility of capacity reduction in 2026 [7] - Caustic soda was affected by a policy. Supply was high, and future alumina production cuts might limit its rise [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated. Supply increased, demand decreased, and there was a long - term over - capacity problem [8] - Glass also oscillated. Production capacity was expected to be compressed, and demand was insufficient [8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum is a good long - position allocation variety under the support of macro and fundamental prospects, and institutions are highly consistent in bullish on Shanghai Aluminum in 2026, with the target price pointed to the 25,000 yuan mark, and the peak may be higher this year [1][2][3] - Short - term capital boosts Shanghai Aluminum to hit historical highs, which deviates from the fundamentals. Speculative participation should be cautious, and aluminum smelters' selling hedging is cost - effective [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance in 2025 - 2026 - In 2025, precious metals led by gold had the largest annual market since 1979. At the end of the year, silver, platinum, etc. soared, and copper in non - ferrous metals rose over 35%, tin over 40%, while aluminum only rose 15% [1] - At the beginning of 2026, due to the US military action against Venezuela, precious metals strengthened again, and funds were allocated to aluminum, pushing Shanghai Aluminum to 24,000 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Policy Environment - In 2026, the commodity rise is driven by macro - easing and tight supply - demand expectations. The Fed may cut interest rates, and a dovish Fed chairman is likely to be appointed, maintaining the global easing trend [2] - In China, as the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", there are strong policy expectations. The government has issued policies on equipment renewal, consumer goods replacement, and grid construction, providing support for aluminum's traditional application scenarios [2] 3.3 Aluminum Market Supply and Demand - The demand for aluminum is expected to increase due to policy support, and the consumption scenarios are expanding. However, the supply is restricted, with domestic production capacity approaching the ceiling and overseas production capacity limited by electricity. There is a risk of over 500,000 tons of production suspension at a Mozambique aluminum plant in Q1, and the aluminum market is expected to be in short supply in 2026 with low inventory becoming the norm [2] 3.4 Investment Suggestions and Risks - Shanghai Aluminum's valuation is rising, but the fundamental reality shows weakness, and there is a risk of industrial negative feedback. Short - term speculation should be cautious, and aluminum smelters' selling hedging is cost - effective as the profit per ton of aluminum has soared to around 8,000 yuan [3]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月07日 (原油) 夜盘油价遭遇回调，近期油价呈现剧烈波动特点。伊朗局势持续紧张但目前仍在可控范围内，市场 对地缘风险紧张情绪逐渐趋弱,盘面呈现高位卖压与空头增仓。地缘风险能否有效提振油价,取决 于其是否对供应造成实质性减量，否则对油价的影响将仅限于短期波动，且盘面反应力度会逐步减 弱。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属延续强势。美国对委内瑞拉军事行动以及特朗普一系列强势言论体现全球地缘乱局延 续，贵金属牛市逻辑不改，资金情绪主导剧烈波动，短期关注前高位置能否再度实现突破，维持多 头参与思路。今晚关注美国ADP就业、ISM非制造业PMI以及职位空缺数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价记录位置震荡，沪铜关注仓量变动。花旗上调短线铜目标位至1.4万美元、约10.8-10.9万 一线，中长线维持1.3万美元；高盛表示铜实际需求承压，不过走势关键在美伦价差，昨日两市价差 收窄到50美元。国内观铜走高到103665元，上海贴水20元，精废价差6100元。因跨年涨势快LME实 值期权多头履约密集，伦铜短线目标扩至1.35万美元。观望，前期2602期权组合策略减仓 ...