Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Zonglvyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Yumi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Shengzhu: ★★★ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market shows different trends, with some products in a state of shock adjustment, while others are affected by factors such as policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships [2][3][5] - Different investment strategies are proposed for various agricultural products based on their current situations and future trends [2][5][8] Summary by Related Categories Soybean (Douyi) - Domestic soybeans are in a state of shock adjustment with a slowdown in the decline. The sales volume and price of Jilin trade - grain soybeans are good. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, but the demand is relatively cautious after price increases. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the spot market [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures continue to decline. Brazil's 2026 soybean production is expected to increase by 2.5% compared to 2025. The US government is weighing biofuel quotas. South American bumper harvest expectations have returned as the main trading logic, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [2] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The US government's upcoming announcement of biofuel blending obligations has boosted US soybean oil and domestic soybean oil, with palm oil following. The upper limit of soybean and palm oil prices is constrained by the expansion of global oil supplies, while the lower limit is supported by the expansion of global biodiesel demand. Overall, they are in a range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the risk of boundary failure [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures show a pattern of strong oil and weak meal. Rapeseed oil prices are affected by US biofuel policy expectations. The rapeseed market faces a contradiction between short - term supply shortage and medium - term import policy uncertainties. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see attitude [5] Corn - Dalian corn futures opened high and closed low, while the national corn spot price was stable with a slight increase. CNGC's increased procurement has boosted market confidence. Short - term futures will be mainly in a wide - range shock, and seasonal risks should be noted later [6] Live Pigs - Near - month live pig contracts are in shock, while far - month contracts are significantly weaker. The spot market is stronger in the north and weaker in the south, with a slight overall increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter rhythm may accelerate, and pig prices are expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [7] Eggs - The egg futures market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. The spot price has risen significantly. Low chicken - chick replenishment in the past few months will lead to a low number of newly - laid hens in the first half of 2026. With the supply shrinking and demand rising, it is recommended to adopt a long - low - allocation strategy or a long - near - short - far strategy for the first - half - year contracts in 2026 [8]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Iran tensions ease, geopolitical risk premium declines, and short - term oil price increase is limited due to significant inventory pressure in Q1 2026 [1] Precious Metals - US economic data shows resilience, Fed officials oppose short - term rate cuts, and precious metals remain strong due to the tense Iran situation [2] Copper - Copper price adjusts overnight, with an increase in SHFE copper warehouse receipts. The strategy of selling call options at high levels is preferred [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum continues to adjust. There is a short - term fundamental divergence, and caution is advised for speculation. Aluminum plants can consider selling hedging [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The spread between it and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years [5] Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, in significant surplus. Sell on rallies when the spread is low [6] Zinc - LME's decision triggers a short - term bull market, but the supply - demand relationship remains unchanged. There is a need for volatility reduction, and opportunities to sell call options and short on rallies are recommended [7] Lead - The market is bullish, but the upside of Shanghai lead is constrained. It is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is strongly oscillating, and stainless - steel market is active. Short - term sentiment is high, and buying on dips is recommended [9] Tin - Shanghai tin declines with reduced positions. Observe its adjustment resilience, and continue to sell call options with high strike prices near expiration [10] Lithium Carbonate - The market is active, with a change in the sales strategy of upstream lithium salt plants. The futures price is strong but highly uncertain [11] Industrial Silicon - There are expectations for the technological transformation of 12,500kva furnaces. It is expected to oscillate mainly due to weak demand [12] Polysilicon - It oscillates around 48,000 yuan/ton. The trading logic has changed, and caution is advised [13] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel prices oscillate at night. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the market will continue to oscillate in the short term [14] Iron Ore - The supply is seasonally decreasing, and demand is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. It will mainly oscillate with high - level volatility risks [15] Coke - The price oscillates. Carbon supply is abundant, and the price is likely to oscillate strongly [16] Coking Coal - The price oscillates. Carbon supply is abundant, and the price is likely to oscillate strongly [17] Manganese Silicon - The price rebounds from the bottom. Manganese ore prices rise, and buying on dips is recommended [18] Silicon Iron - The price rebounds from the bottom. Affected by policies, demand is resilient, and buying on dips is recommended [19] Group 3: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - Airlines are reducing prices to compete for cargo, and the 04 contract is driven by expectations. It will oscillate with spot sentiment [20] Group 4: Fuels and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil drops with crude oil due to eased Iran tensions. Geopolitical factors will continue to affect the market, and high - sulfur cracking spreads may remain strong [21] Asphalt - Asphalt follows crude oil with limited amplitude. Pay attention to Venezuelan crude oil arrivals [22] Urea - The spot price rises continuously, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [23] Methanol - The geopolitical risk eases, and the market has intensified long - short competition [24] Pure Benzene - It follows the oil price decline. Supply is sufficient, and it will oscillate in the short term with large de - stocking resistance in the long term [25] Styrene - Supply - demand is in tight balance, and exports are good. Pay attention to the oil - price risk [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Supply is tight, and downstream demand is good. However, pay attention to the oil - price risk [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC weakens at night. It may go through capacity reduction in 2026. Caustic soda is weak with high inventory [28] PX and PTA - They decline with the oil price. PX can be allocated long after adjustment, and PTA's processing margin is moderately restored [29] Ethylene Glycol - Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. It is recommended to focus on波段行情 [30] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber demand weakens, and bottle - chip price follows the raw - material decline with capacity pressure [31] Glass - It is weak. It is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation, and buying on dips can be considered in the long term [32] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - Demand recovers, natural rubber supply decreases, and synthetic rubber supply increases. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [33] Soda Ash - It is weak with high supply pressure. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [34] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The US may determine biofuel quotas in March. South American harvest is expected to be good. Observe the US biofuel policy and South American weather [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - They are expected to oscillate in a range. The upper and lower limits are affected by supply expansion and bio - diesel demand, respectively [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The market is optimistic about the improvement of China - Canada rapeseed trade, and rapeseed prices are expected to be weak this week [37] Domestic Soybean - It stops falling and rebounds. The supply of high - quality soybeans is tight, and demand is cautious [38] Corn - Dalian corn futures oscillate at a high level, and the main driving factor is unclear. It will oscillate widely in the short term [39] Pig - The futures price oscillates. Pig prices may hit a low in H1 2027. Watch the supply - demand game before the Spring Festival [40] Egg - The egg futures price rises with reduced positions. Supply is expected to decrease and demand to increase in H1 2026, and long - near and short - far strategies are recommended [41] Cotton - US cotton falls slightly, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates at a high level. It may continue to adjust, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [42] Sugar - International sugar production varies. Zhengzhou sugar rebounds, but the rebound may be limited due to a strong production increase expectation [43] Apple - The futures price is high. The market focuses on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [44] Timber - The price is low. Low inventory provides some support, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [45] Pulp - The futures price falls. The short - term fundamentals are average, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [46] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares oscillate with reduced volume. The "Spring Market" may continue, and pay attention to the shift of the upward driver [47] Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures perform differently. The bond market may oscillate, and consider the opportunity to flatten the yield curve [48]

白糖:先抑后扬，关注天气风险 国投期货研究院 黄维 投资咨询号: Z0017474 MM. 国投期货 ///////////////// 25/26季度巴西继续丰产 Comment & R. B. 巴西甲南部紧计目慌产量 ► 2025年4月16日-2026年3月30012024年4月16日-2025年3月30日 百万吨 - - 2023年4月16日-2024年3月30回 2022年4月16日-2023年3月30日 700- 600 500 400 国投期货 300 200 100 8月 11月 9月 11月 11月 11月 12月 12月 11月 11月 11日 2月 6月 7月 5月 4月 数据来源: Unica · 截至2025年12月上半月，巴西中南部地区累计甘蔗入榨量为59818.6万吨，同比下降2.36%; 甘蔗ATR为138.38千 克/吨蔗，同比下降2.21%; 累计制糖比为50.91%，同比增加2.72个百分点；累计产乙醇302.75亿升，同比下降 5.37%；累计产糖量为4015.8万吨，同比增加0.86%。 · 虽然单产下降导致甘蔗入榨量减少，但是巴西中南部主产区的制糖比例较高，导致食糖产 ...

国投期货研究院 黄维 投资咨询号: Z0017474 :销售压力仍存，价格震荡向下 lling - 国投期货 2025年苹果去库较快，库存偏低 苹果主力合约收盘价 苹果主力合约收盘价 · 销售初期，甘肃苹果价格同比下降较多，而苹 果质量较好，甘肃货源的性价比较高，出货较 快，春节前后甘肃货源就已经销售殆尽。前期 销售较快的另一个原因是24/25季度苹果收购成 本较低，2024年新季苹果收购价格明显低于去 年同期，山东、陕西、甘肃三大主产区收购价 格均低于去年0.7-1.0元/斤。 入库成本较低，利 于消化去库。 由于销售较好，客商对高价货源的接受意愿有 所提高，价格和需求形成良性循环，苹果价格 持续上涨。4月初，一股强冷空气袭击西北苹果 产区，由于天气风险增加，苹果期价大幅增仓 上行。 不过，此次降温对苹果的影响不大。 · 2025年苹果期价震荡上行。年初价格有所回落, 最低跌至6602点，随后价格一路上行，最高上 涨至9796点，涨幅为48.38%。 · 24/25季度苹果去库进度较快。销售初期，果农 销售积极性较高，以顺价走货为主，冷库出货 较为顺畅。2023、2024年苹果价格持续下跌， 市场情绪较为悲 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 50ETF - From January 13 - 15, 2026, the price decreased from 3.214 to 3.180 with a cumulative decline of about 1.06%, and both the current - month IV and next - month IV decreased [1] - The next - month IV quantiles in the past 1 and 2 years were relatively high, at 86.40% and 77.30% respectively on January 15, 2026 [1] 2. Shanghai 300ETF - From January 12 - 15, 2026, the price fluctuated slightly, and the current - month IV and next - month IV generally decreased [3] - The next - month IV quantiles in the past 1 and 2 years were relatively high, and the current - month IV quantiles also showed certain characteristics [3] 3. Shenzhen 300ETF - From January 13 - 15, 2026, the price first decreased and then increased slightly, and the current - month IV and next - month IV decreased [7] - The next - month IV quantiles in the past 1 and 2 years were relatively high, and the current - month IV quantiles had different levels [7] 4. Shanghai CSI 500ETF - From January 13 - 15, 2026, the price fluctuated, and the current - month IV and next - month IV decreased [15] - The current - month and next - month IV quantiles in the past 1 and 2 years were relatively high [15] 5. Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - From January 13 - 15, 2026, the price fluctuated slightly, and the current - month IV and next - month IV decreased [22] - The current - month and next - month IV quantiles in the past 1 and 2 years were relatively high [22] 6. ChiNext ETF - From January 13 - 15, 2026, the price increased slightly, and the current - month IV and next - month IV decreased [28] - The current - month and next - month IV quantiles in the past 1 and 2 years showed certain levels [28] 7. Shenzhen 100ETF - From January 13 - 15, 2026, the price increased slightly, and the current - month IV and next - month IV decreased [38] - The current - month and next - month IV quantiles in the past 1 and 2 years were at different levels [38] 8. Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - From January 13 - 15, 2026, the price fluctuated, and the current - month IV and next - month IV showed certain changes [47] - The current - month and next - month IV quantiles in the past 1 and 2 years were relatively high [47] 9. Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF - From January 13 - 15, 2026, the price decreased slightly, and the current - month IV and next - month IV decreased [53] - The current - month and next - month IV quantiles in the past 1 and 2 years were relatively high [53] 10. 300 Index - From January 13 - 15, 2026, the price first decreased and then increased slightly, and the current - month IV and next - month IV changed accordingly [65] - The current - month and next - month IV quantiles in the past 1 and 2 years were at different levels [65] 11. 1000 Index - From January 13 - 15, 2026, the price fluctuated, and the current - month IV and next - month IV showed certain trends [70] - The current - month and next - month IV quantiles in the past 1 and 2 years were at different levels [70] 12. Shanghai Composite 50 Index - From January 13 - 15, 2026, the price decreased slightly, and the current - month IV and next - month IV decreased [80] - The current - month and next - month IV quantiles in the past 1 and 2 years were at different levels [80]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The listing of coking coal options on January 16, 2026, can improve market liquidity issues and meet the diverse and personalized risk management needs of enterprises and investors [1][2][4] - Currently, the coking coal market is in a "ceiling" pattern with limited rebound space due to high supply and weak demand [9] - If the implied volatility of options is significantly higher than historical volatility after listing, the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Option Listing Information - Coking coal options will be listed for trading on January 16, 2026, with night - trading starting on the same night. The first batch of listed contracts are based on JM2604 - JM2612 futures contracts [1] - The trading of coking coal options can use limit orders and limit stop (profit) orders, with a maximum order quantity of 1000 lots per time. The position limit is 8000 lots, and coking coal options and futures are separately limited [1] 3.2 Listing Background - During the "anti - involution" market in July 2025, coking coal experienced multiple limit - up and limit - down situations, resulting in market liquidity problems. The listing of coking coal options can largely improve these two issues [2] 3.3 Comparison with Futures - Options are more refined risk - management tools. After listing, enterprises can flexibly choose different types of option contracts and strategy combinations, and futures investors can use options to hedge futures position risks [4] 3.4 Contract Details - The contract details include the contract subject (coking coal futures contract), contract type (call and put options), trading unit (1 lot of 60 - ton coking coal futures contract), etc [5] - The exercise price covers a certain price range, and the exercise price intervals vary according to different months and price ranges [5] - The exercise method is American, and the buyer can submit an exercise application before 15:30 on the expiration date or on any trading day before the expiration date [5] 3.5 Volatility - Since the options are not yet listed, historical volatility can be used as a reference. The average historical volatility of coking coal is around 39%, and the 20 - day historical volatility (20HV) is more affected by single - day large fluctuations. It is reasonably speculated that the implied volatility on the listing day is around 40% [4][5][6] 3.6 Fundamental Situation - The coking coal market is currently in a "ceiling" pattern, with limited rebound space. Supply is the main suppressing factor, and demand is weak, so the upward resistance of coking coal prices is large, and there is a lack of short - term trend - rising power [9] 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Different option strategies can be matched according to the views on the option underlying (bullish, bearish, range - break, or oscillating) and the option volatility trend (rising or falling) [10] - Based on the fundamental situation and historical volatility, if the implied volatility of options is significantly higher than historical volatility after listing, the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [12]

| 国投期货 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月15日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布11月PPI录得3%为7月以来新高，零售销售月率录得0.6%略高于预期，美联储多位官员讲话对短 期内降息持否定态度。伊朗局势处于高度紧张状态,尽管释放一定暂缓行动信号,但不确定性依然很强,消 息称联合国安理会将于15日应美国要求举行伊朗局势紧急会议。责金属整体维持多头思路，白银连续拉涨后 波动加剧。今日关注美国1月SPGI制造业PMI初值和周度初请失业金人数。 ★美联储——①卡什卡利：特朗普的威胁 ...

豆棕油及豆粕市场年度展望 国投期货研究院 吴小明 投资咨询号Z0015853 202601 全球大豆供需状况 PART 1 全球油料供需格局同比微松 | 7种油籽供需 | | 2020/20 | 2021/20 | 2022/20 | 2023/20 | 2024/20 | 2025/20 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 平衡表 | | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 同比 | | 同比% | | 期初库存 | 万吨 | 11305 | 11566 | 11557 | 12298 | 13607 | 14169 | 562 | 4 . | 1% | | 产量 | 万吨 | 60926 | 61069 | 63730 | 65737 | 68434 | 69315 | 881 | 1 . | 3% | | 进口 | 万吨 | 19101 | 17768 | 19805 | 20466 | 20679 | 21173 | 495 | 2 . | 4% | | 压榨 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, China's imports and exports both outperformed expectations against a high - base backdrop. The trade surplus reached $114.14 billion [3]. - In 2026, export growth may remain resilient. Exports to the US may slightly recover, while exports to the EU may continue to slow, and exports to ASEAN and other neighboring countries are expected to drive overall export growth. Imports of commodities and high - tech products are accelerating, and future import volumes are expected to be further boosted by domestic demand expansion policies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 December Import and Export Data - Exports in December increased by 6.60% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.22%. Imports increased by 5.70% year - on - year, compared to a 1.90% increase in the previous period [3]. 3.2 Export Market Analysis - The top three export markets in December were ASEAN, the EU, and the US. Exports to ASEAN increased by 11.15% year - on - year, to the EU by 11.63%, and to the US decreased by 30.01% year - on - year [3]. - Exports of high - tech products, such as special equipment, high - end machine tools, and industrial robots, increased significantly [3]. 3.3 Import Analysis - In December, import value rebounded, and the year - on - year growth rate improved significantly. The import value of copper ore and its concentrates increased by 33.21% year - on - year, becoming one of the main drivers of import growth [3]. 3.4 Outlook for the Future - In 2026, export growth may remain resilient. Exports to the US may see a slight recovery in the context of the phased easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations. EU demand may continue to weaken, and exports to the EU may continue to slow. Exports to ASEAN and other neighboring countries are expected to drive overall export growth [3]. - Imports of commodities and high - tech products are accelerating, and future import volumes are expected to be further boosted by domestic demand expansion policies [3].

| | | | Mir | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月15日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所下跌，棉花现货成交一般，基差总体持稳。截至12月底全国棉花商业库存为578.47万吨，环比增加110.11万吨, 同比增加9.96万吨，12月中旬时商业库存同比小幅偏少。截至1月8号，累计加工友棉696.9万吨，同比增加63.3万吨，较过去四 年均值增加132.3万吨。国内新疆种植面积减少的政策落实，会议上提 ...