安如泰山 信守承诺 十一前后油市地缘风险升温,核心聚焦俄乌演绎 能源评论 本周地缘风险的升温再次引领原油系品种上行，从相对强弱来看，近两个交易日布伦特涨3.8%、WTI涨 4%，截至周四上午收盘内盘SC涨3.6%、FU涨4.6%、LU涨2.7%、BU涨1.9%，即对外部地缘犹动更为敏感的 原油、燃料油期货涨幅居前。 具体来看，本周油市的偏强表现受到俄乌局势、伊朗核谈、委内瑞拉出口限制多方因素的共振推动，那么 这些因素的利多影响是否可持续? 在8月15日美俄元首的阿拉斯加会谈未取得明确成果后，近期特朗普言论再次倒向支持乌克兰，不仅反复要 求欧盟国家停止购买俄罗斯所有能源产品，还称乌方可能"赢回全部乌克兰，恢复原状" Polvmarket对年内 小ツ 血档/水江 郑大邱 今 竹 吊 称 ￣q ， 梁 今 Ｊ 昭 厕 王 จ 为 一 ， 权 报 不 ， ヤ ym Kr 铁 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中持续对俄罗斯施压，8月俄罗斯炼厂遇袭受影响的产能在120万桶/天左右，在俄罗斯占比17％，9月以来全国 炼厂加工量494万桶/天，较8月水平进一步下降15万桶/天，目最新周度数据显示开工率仍在环比 ...

| Millio | > 國技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月25日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡回落。本周鲍威尔演讲中指出政策利率仍然略带限制性，强调政策将根据数据和经济前景灵 活调整。美联储多位官员讲话体观谨慎态度，对后续降息存在分歧。关注今晚美国周度初请失业金人数和周 五的PCE通胀数据以及美国政府停摆的解决进展。 贵金属中期偏强趋势未改但短期波动加剧保持观望。 ★美国财长贝森特:美联储利率已过高太久了;我们将进入宽松周期。鲍威尔本应发出100至150个基点降息 的信号。FOMC今年票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比警告不要进行一系列降息，称其对通胀问题仍存忧虑，下 次会议不愿支持降息；旧金山联储主席戴利则认为经济增长、劳动力等放缓，而 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 铜: Grasberg不可抗力，资余兴趣是关键 点有成金 事件: 2、事故对该矿产销量影响: 2023年6月印尼禁止铜精矿出口，除非兑现冶炼厂产能建设以获取阶段性出口配 额。 FCX为Grasberg铜矿配建冶炼厂的项目进展曲折,2024年Manyar冶炼厂投产进程多次延迟，于2025年5月 投产、7月产出（该厂预计年产48万吨阴极铜，精矿处理量170万吨）; Gresik冶炼厂（与三菱合资预计消耗 Grasberg40%的铜精矿、年产量预计34.2万吨）夏季发生制氧事故停产。冶炼进度无法消耗铜精矿，自由港在 2024年按印尼政府审批出口铜精矿活动到期后，截至今年一季度已围积较多精矿库存（年初据传已接近40万 吨）并已影响Grasberg铜矿生产，上半年该矿铜产量仅29.7万吨。 2025年自由港在印尼的产销活动并不顺利，2024年该公司在印尼整体铜业务销售18.37亿磅（约83万吨）, 2025年最初预计销售16.25亿磅（约73.7万吨，较去年下调10万吨），但上半年仅完成4.43亿磅（约20万吨， 三季度加速），前期已将今年预期继续下调到15亿磅（约68万吨）。 因此，2025年3月 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 铜: Grasberg不可抗力，资余兴趣是关键 点有成金 事件: 9月24日晚，自由港麦克莫兰公司(Freeport-McMoRan Inc.)对印尼旗下大矿Grasberg Block Cave泥浆溃海事 故宣布不可抗力，并下调今年四季度及明年全年铜金销量预期。伦铜价格夜盘开盘前直线转涨，并再次创出今 年10320美元/吨收盘价新高；沪铜加权增仓6万余手，加权指数最高涨至82880点。 1、该矿重要性：事故于9月8日发生，泥浆涌出量大，矿区基本处于停产状态，预计年底前完成事故调查。印 尼Grasberq铜矿是全球第二大铜精矿，自由港麦克莫兰公司（FCX）目前持股48.8%，印尼公司持股51.2% (仍积极致力于提高股权占比) ，该矿年产能80万吨，在疫情期间完成从露天矿到地下开采的转变，2024年该 矿铜销量增至约76万吨，接近FCX全年产量的40%，按国际铜研究小组2024年2298万吨铜精矿产量计算，占 比约3.3%。 2、事故对该矿产销量影响: 2023年6月印尼禁止铜精矿出口，除非兑现冶炼厂产能建设以获取阶段性出口配 额。 FCX为Grasberg铜矿配建冶炼厂的项目进展曲折,2 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月25日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价延续反弹，布伦特11合约涨1.89%。上周美国EIA原油、汽油、取暖油＆柴油库存全 线下降对市场情绪构成支撑,此外我们持续提示的十一前后地缘犹动风险有所发酵,昨日乌克兰继 续对俄罗斯能源基础设施进行袭击，包括一家炼能12万桶/天的炼厂及黑海出口港口附近的两个油泵 站,有消息称7月以来雪佛兰获准的在委内经营许可因现金支付受限实际仅能出口24万桶/天项目产 能的一半，而伊朗与欧洲三国仍在进行9月27日联合国制裁启动日前的最后博弈。短期地缘风险主导 油价反弹,看涨期权对空头头寸的保护价值仍在。 (铝) 隔夜铜价大涨带动有色偏强震荡。9月铝表观消费不及预期,国庆前备货带动铝锭社库有下降迹象, 现货贴水收窄，但整体驱动不足，沪铝在3月高点位置仍面临阻力。 【铸造铝合金】 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，保太现货报价维持在20300元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整预期增加 企业成本,相对沪铝或体现更强韧性。 (氧化铝) 氧化铝运行产能接近9800万吨刷新历史新高，行业库存持续上升。供应过剩明显,国内外观货继续 下调。当 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Manganese silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - Steel products have an overall weak domestic demand, with exports remaining high, and the market is expected to be mainly range-bound [2] - Iron ore is expected to be mainly in high-level oscillation [3] - Coke prices are relatively firm with a slight premium on the futures market [4] - Coking coal prices are relatively firm with a premium on the futures market [5] - Manganese silicon is recommended to go long on dips under the "anti-involution" background [6] - Ferrosilicon is recommended to go long on dips under the "anti-involution" background [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread: Surface demand has recovered, production has continued to decline, and inventory has gradually decreased [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Demand remains resilient, production stays high, and inventory continues to accumulate [2] - Overall: Ironwater production remains high, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. Downstream demand is weak, and the market is mainly range-bound [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments have declined from the high level, and domestic arrivals have rebounded. There is no significant pressure on port inventory accumulation [3] - Demand: Domestic terminal demand is weak, but high ironwater production supports short-term demand. Steel mills have increased imported ore inventory and still have pre-holiday replenishment needs [3] - Market: With the Fed's interest rate cut and domestic policies to be followed up, speculative sentiment has cooled. It is expected to be mainly high-level oscillation [3] Coke - Production: Coking profit is average, and daily production has slightly decreased [4] - Inventory: Overall inventory has increased [4] - Market: Carbon element supply is abundant, and high ironwater production supports prices. The futures market has a slight premium [4] Coking Coal - Production: Coal mine production has slightly increased, and short-term production suspension has basically recovered [5] - Inventory: Total inventory has increased, and production-end inventory has slightly decreased [5] - Market: Carbon element supply is abundant, and high ironwater production supports prices. The futures market has a premium [5] Manganese Silicon - Production: Weekly production has continued to increase, and inventory has not increased [6] - Market: Ironwater production has increased, and demand is good. It is recommended to go long on dips [6] Ferrosilicon - Production: Supply has recovered to a high level, and inventory has slightly decreased [7] - Market: Ironwater production has increased, and demand is acceptable. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polyolefins, Styrene, PTA, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Urea, PVC, and Glass are rated ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Pure Benzene is rated ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Ethylene Glycol is rated ☆☆☆, meaning a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Caustic Soda is rated ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Soda Ash is rated ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. Report's Core View - In the chemical industry, different products present diverse market conditions. Some products have positive short - term trends but face long - term supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as weather, downstream demand, and production capacity changes [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose slightly. Supply is increasing, but lower prices led to better low - price sales. Polyolefins futures also rose slightly. Polyethylene has inventory pressure, and polypropylene's supply is still ample despite some improvement in the packaging sector [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebounded slightly. Its weekly production decreased, and port inventory declined, but high import expectations and poor downstream profits weakened the outlook. Styrene futures rose slightly but remained below the 5 - day moving average, with sufficient supply and weak demand [3]. Polyester - PX's strong supply - demand expectations weakened, but an oil price rebound drove up PX and PTA prices. PTA's profitability is poor. Ethylene glycol prices fell, with weak expectations. Short - fiber new capacity is limited, and demand is improving. Bottle - chip production was affected by typhoons, but long - term over - capacity is a concern [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol stopped falling. Port unloading was slow, and MTO plant operations increased, leading to port de - stocking. However, high port inventory limited price increases. Urea prices rose, but supply still exceeded demand, and the export window is closing [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC's supply - demand is loose, with high inventory. It may show a weak and volatile trend. Caustic soda has a weak current situation but strong future expectations, and the 2510 - 2601 spread may widen [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash rose with glass. Soda ash production is expected to increase, and long - term supply is excessive. Glass prices rose due to industry meetings and planned price hikes. In the short - term, it may be strong, but long - term trends depend on capacity reduction [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No. 1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ななな [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ななな [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: な☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including beans, corn, pigs, and eggs, and provides short - term and long - term investment outlooks based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and seasonal factors [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean No. 1 - Domestic soybean prices rebounded from a low level with large - scale position reduction, and new - season soybean quotes are weak. The gap between domestic and imported soybeans widened, and China is accelerating the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The supply gap in Q1 next year may disappear, and the US soybean market may be pressured [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The decline of soybean meal futures narrowed. Affected by Argentine policies, it remains weak. Import volume should be continuously monitored. The domestic oil mill operation rate is high, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term market is bearish, and a long - term cautious bullish view is held [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - After Argentina lifted export taxes, China is speeding up soybean purchases. The supply gap in Q1 next year may disappear. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle. The US soybean market may be pressured, and the overall oil and oilseed prices may face downward pressure. In the medium term, soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed oil - meal ratio is rising. Rapeseed meal is under pressure due to Argentine policies, low protein price difference, and seasonal demand decline. Australian rapeseed will improve domestic supply. The rapeseed oil - meal ratio is expected to rise, and the rapeseed futures price will be under short - term pressure [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures fluctuated strongly. The market is optimistic about the new - season output, but the opening price has been falling. With the increase in new - grain supply, downstream demand is weak, and the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures rebounded with position reduction at a low level, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the re - entry of secondary fattening and government policies. There is a plan to reduce production capacity by 1 million heads before the end of January next year. The current futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - Egg futures adjusted weakly, and the spot price was stable. The spot price may not rise significantly before the holidays and will be weak after the holidays. The industry needs to reduce production capacity. The pressure of newly - laid hens will decrease by the end of the year. A long position in the far - month contract for H1 next year can be considered [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability [1] - Sugar: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and other factors [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summaries by Category Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, with weak spot trading and good pre - sales of new cotton. New cotton sales may be favorable at the beginning of the new cotton listing period due to low old - crop inventory [2] - Xinjiang machine - picked cotton acquisition is expected to gradually start this week, with the acquisition price at 6.1 - 6.4 yuan/kg. The probability of a high - yield cotton crop in Xinjiang is large, but the specific yield estimate ranges from 720 to 770 tons [2] - Ginners are cautious about new cotton acquisition, and there is unlikely to be a situation of grabbing cotton. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly due to the high yield [2] - At the beginning of the new cotton listing, the cost of new cotton strongly supports the futures price, but there is also hedging pressure. The weak demand in the peak season and poor spinning profits drag down the cotton price [2] - Positive signals have been released in Sino - US trade negotiations, but details need further follow - up. After Zhengzhou cotton broke through the support level, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increase in the sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss of sugar production, and Brazil's sugar production will remain high [3] - Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In terms of production and sales, the sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light [3] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the output estimate of the next sugar - making season. After July, the rainfall in Guangxi has been good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane has increased year - on - year. The sugar output in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to be relatively good [3] - Typhoon Koinu will bring wind and rain to Guangxi, with expected limited impact. Follow - up conditions need to be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated strongly. In the spot market, the demand for cold - storage apples increased due to Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. For early - maturing apples, the supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and the purchase enthusiasm of merchants is high, with the pre - harvest order price remaining high [4] - Based on the bagging data, the apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side [4] - Apple farmers in Shaanxi are more bullish this year, and the amount of apples left for storage has increased. It is expected that the inventory in cold storage after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October will also increase, and the cold - storage inventory in the new quarter may be higher than market expectations [4] - Although the spot market performs well, funds believe that the cold - storage apple inventory in the new quarter will be higher than expected. It is expected that the futures price will continue to decline in the short term, and a bearish operation strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all rose slightly, and the sentiment in the futures market improved. The domestic spot price of natural rubber was stable, the spot price of synthetic rubber increased, and the port price of butadiene in the external market was stable [5] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - production period, and Super Typhoon Koinu passed through production areas such as China and Vietnam. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline significantly, and some plants were shut down for maintenance or operating at low loads [5] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire plants increased slightly, tire enterprises maintained normal production, and the inventory of finished tire products increased [5] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 46.12 tons, with the bonded - area inventory decreasing and the general - trade inventory increasing. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 1.26 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene continued to decline to 2.31 tons [5] - Overall, demand remains stable, the supply of natural rubber increases while inventory decreases, the supply of synthetic rubber decreases and inventory also decreases, and cost - driven factors strengthen. As the National Day holiday approaches, risk preference is cautious. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [5] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the price of broad - leaved pulp was also stable [6] - As of September 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 211.2 tons, a 5 - ton increase from the previous period, a 2.4% month - on - month increase, and the inventory was still at a high level year - on - year [6] - The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [6] - China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 265.3 tons, a 22.7 - ton month - on - month decrease. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the pulp demand is still average. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt a range - trading strategy [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream quotation was stable [7] - Last week, the arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In September, the quotation of New Zealand radiata pine decreased by $2 month - on - month, the domestic spot price remained weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased [7] - The external quotation is still high, the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, and the pressure on traders has increased. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level [7] - Although the demand has entered the peak season, the port shipment volume decreased last week, indicating weak peak - season demand. However, the daily average shipment volume during the off - season remained above 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction was smooth [7] - The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand is average, and the short - term price increase momentum is insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [7]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend and poor trading opportunities, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend and poor trading opportunities, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Views - The medium-term bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with expected price drops for Brent and SC crude. However, geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict may still intensify around the National Day holiday, so the strategy of combining high-level short positions with call options can be maintained [1]. - Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil will mainly follow the weakening cost side due to the unchanged medium-term bearish trend in crude oil. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure, while high-sulfur fuel oil may be relatively stronger and is susceptible to geopolitical news [2]. - The asphalt market maintains a tight supply-demand balance, with the BU contract having support below due to factors such as increased pre-holiday demand in the north, expected production increases, and inventory declines [2]. - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with marginal improvements in supply and demand and expected better import costs [3]. Summary by Industry Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC11 contract rising 1.94% during the day. Iraqi Kurdish oil exports remain suspended, and there are discussions about a possible Russian diesel export ban. Negotiations between three European countries and Iran to avoid UN sanctions on September 27 have no clear progress [1]. - The medium-term bearish trend continues, with the expected average price of Brent crude dropping from $68 per barrel in Q3 to $63 per barrel, and the SC average price falling from 500 yuan per barrel to around 465 yuan per barrel [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors affect supply expectations, causing a rebound in crude oil-related products. However, the unilateral trend of fuel oil will follow the weakening cost side [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil faces low加注 demand, increased domestic quotas, and overseas refinery RFCC accidents, intensifying supply pressure. High-sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, but Russian refinery attacks may support supply expectations and make it relatively stronger [2]. Asphalt - The latest weekly shipment volume increased significantly compared to the previous period. The north has pre-holiday construction demand, while the south is affected by typhoon weather. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [2]. - The initial production plans of refineries in October show a significant year-on-year increase but limited month-on-month growth. Factory inventories remain stable, and social inventories decreased by 57,000 tons, with the overall inventory level decreasing [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Crude oil rebounded, and LPG fluctuated. Refinery self-use of LPG increased, squeezing external supply, leading to a decline in commercial volume compared to last week [3]. - Typhoon weather in the South China region affects imports, while the import volume in East China increased but remains at a low level. Combustion demand is stable, and overall consumption increased slightly [3].