| | | | Mir | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月15日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所下跌，棉花现货成交一般，基差总体持稳。截至12月底全国棉花商业库存为578.47万吨，环比增加110.11万吨, 同比增加9.96万吨，12月中旬时商业库存同比小幅偏少。截至1月8号，累计加工友棉696.9万吨，同比增加63.3万吨，较过去四 年均值增加132.3万吨。国内新疆种植面积减少的政策落实，会议上提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - **Hot - Rolled Steel**: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - **Coke**: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - **Coking Coal**: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The steel plate continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The demand for thread steel increased slightly while production decreased, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled steel improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces were gradually restarted, and molten iron increased in the short - term. The overall domestic demand was still weak, but steel exports reached a new high in December. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market sentiment was cautious. The plate was expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [2] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore plate weakened. Global shipments decreased seasonally, the domestic arrival volume remained high in the short - term, and port inventory continued to increase. Terminal demand improved in the off - season, molten iron production increased from a low level, and steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but was still at a low level. The commodity market sentiment was volatile, and iron ore fundamentals were relatively loose. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] - **Coke**: The price fluctuated during the day. Coke transaction prices rose sporadically, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. The carbon element supply was abundant, downstream molten iron was likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials was at an off - season level. The coke plate was at a premium, and the price was likely to be strong in the short - term [4] - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated during the day. The Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1519 vehicles. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and mines resumed production well after New Year's Day. Spot auction transactions continued to improve, and the terminal inventory increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased greatly. The coking coal plate was at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the price was likely to be strong in the short - term [6] - **Silicon Manganese**: The price bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by the rebound of the plate, manganese ore spot prices increased. There were structural problems in manganese ore port inventory. Iron water production decreased seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. It was recommended to buy on dips [7] - **Silicon Iron**: The price bottomed out and rebounded. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market expected an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, and there were expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. Iron water production rebounded to a high - level range, export demand decreased, and metal magnesium production increased. Silicon iron supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It was recommended to buy on dips [8] 3. Content Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Performance**: The plate continued to fluctuate in a narrow range [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Thread steel demand increased slightly, production decreased, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Hot - rolled steel demand improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, and blast furnaces were gradually restarted [2] - **Downstream and Export**: Domestic demand was still weak, but steel exports reached a new high in December [2] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the plate was expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [2] Iron Ore - **Supply**: Global shipments decreased seasonally, the domestic arrival volume remained high in the short - term, and port inventory continued to increase [3] - **Demand**: Terminal demand improved in the off - season, molten iron production increased from a low level, and steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but was still at a low level [3] - **Market Sentiment and Outlook**: The commodity market sentiment was volatile, and iron ore fundamentals were relatively loose. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Coke - **Price and Production**: The price fluctuated, transaction prices rose sporadically, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly [4] - **Inventory**: Coke inventory hardly changed [4] - **Supply - Demand and Outlook**: The carbon element supply was abundant, downstream molten iron was likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials was at an off - season level. The coke plate was at a premium, and the price was likely to be strong in the short - term [4] Coking Coal - **Supply and Customs Clearance**: The Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1519 vehicles. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and mines resumed production well after New Year's Day [6] - **Transaction and Inventory**: Spot auction transactions continued to improve, and the terminal inventory increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production - end inventory increased greatly [6] - **Supply - Demand and Outlook**: The carbon element supply was abundant, downstream molten iron was likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials was at an off - season level. The coking coal plate was at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the price was likely to be strong in the short - term [6] Silicon Manganese - **Price and Raw Materials**: The price bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by the rebound of the plate, manganese ore spot prices increased [7] - **Inventory and Production**: There were structural problems in manganese ore port inventory. Iron water production decreased seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [7] - **Recommendation**: It was recommended to buy on dips [7] Silicon Iron - **Price and Policy**: The price bottomed out and rebounded. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong [8] - **Cost Expectation**: The market expected an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, and there were expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices [8] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Iron water production rebounded to a high - level range, export demand decreased, and metal magnesium production increased. Silicon iron supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly [8] - **Recommendation**: It was recommended to buy on dips [8]

★美联储——①卡什卡利：特朗普的威胁实际是货币政策问题，一月份没有降息的必要。②保尔森：今年晚 些时候小幅降息可能较为合适。③橘皮书：有八个地区的整体经济活动以小幅至温和的速度增长，三个地区 报告无变化,一个地区报告温和下降。④共和党人士：鲍威尔可能缺席一年两度的国会听证会。⑤博斯蒂克 称控制通胀的挑战尚未取得胜利,需继续采取限制性政策。⑥术兰批评外国央行决策者为鲍威尔辩护不恰 当。 ★伊朗局势 东多个主要基地撤出人员。③英媒：特朗普政府已获50个伊朗高价值军事目标清单。④伊朗革命卫队称已达 最高战备状态，导弹库存已增加。⑤美侦察机沿伊朗边界飞行。6多国敦促其公民离开伊朗。 | 国投期货 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月15日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | ...

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Report Information - Report Title: LME no longer accepts zinc ingots from two South Korean companies, zinc price surges briefly [1] - Author: Sun Fangfang [1] - Date: January 15, 2026 [1] - Institution: Guotou Futures Research Institute [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The news that LME no longer accepts two South Korean enterprises' zinc ingot brands leads to a short - term rise in zinc prices, but it won't fundamentally affect the supply - demand balance. The short - term price increase is mainly sentiment - driven. Considering the current supply and demand situation, the zinc price at the beginning of 2026 may be the annual high, and relevant strategies are recommended [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Content News and Impact - Since April 14, 2026, LME will no longer accept the warehouse receipt registration of zinc brand KZ - SHG 99.995 and lead brand KA - LEAD produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd., and zinc brand YP - SHG produced by Young Poong Corporation. As of the morning close on January 15, 2026, the opening of LME zinc was higher, driving SHFE zinc to follow the increase. The LME zinc price reached up to $3355/ton, and the main SHFE zinc contract hit a high of 25,645 yuan/ton [2] Reasons for the Recent Strong Zinc Price - The export window is closed, overseas smelter increments are hard to materialize, and LME inventory has been stable at 100,000 tons recently. The news of LME not accepting the two South Korean companies' zinc ingot brands further stimulates the price increase, with the outer market driving the domestic market to follow [3] - Domestic smelters continue to cut production. At the beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan, national subsidies continue. Zinc demand has strong short - term resilience, and domestic funds are actively long [3] - The aluminum price once exceeded the zinc price, and the low valuation of zinc attracted capital attention [3] - On the last trading day of the near - term SHFE zinc contracts, some funds may push up the delivery - month price, and the spread between the 01 - 02 contracts once exceeded 400 yuan/ton [3] 后市展望 - The zinc valuation has been rapidly revised up. SHFE zinc has recovered all losses in 2025, and the outer - market price has exceeded the 2024 high. Currently, the zinc concentrate supply is in a tight balance, and the domestic smelter's production cut is much less than in 2024. Although there is an expectation of a low - level recovery in consumption, the negative feedback of high prices on consumption is obvious. There is great pressure for a correction at the 25,500 yuan/ton level. In 2026, the production of large mines in China will gradually be released, and the global zinc concentrate supply growth rate is expected to be 4.8%, higher than the global zinc consumption growth rate of 2%. There is a possibility that the high price of SHFE zinc at the beginning of the year will be the annual high [4] Strategy - The volatility of SHFE zinc has risen sharply, the IV of out - of - the - money call options exceeds 40%, and there are only 11 trading days left until the expiration of the near - term options. It is recommended to sell ZN2602 - C - 27000. Entities are advised to conduct short - hedging at high prices, and it is recommended to short zinc in a unilateral operation [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Propylene**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Polypropylene**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Plastic**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Pure Benzene**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Styrene**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **PTA**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Short Fiber**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Bottle Chip**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Methanol**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Urea**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **PVC**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Caustic Soda**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Soda Ash**: ★☆☆ (One red star, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market) [1] - **Glass**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various chemical products, including supply and demand, inventory, and price movements, and provides investment ratings and suggestions based on these analyses [1][2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. Supply was tight, inventory was controllable, and prices rose. Downstream demand was good, driving up the trading center [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fluctuated. For polyethylene, pre - sales during the Spring Festival continued, the overall transaction price increased, and the production load was stable. For polypropylene, the futures market was high, but there were concerns about downstream demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fell with oil prices. Supply was abundant, and inventory at ports was high. In the short term, it would fluctuate due to geopolitical risks, and there were difficulties in de - stocking in the long term [3] - Styrene futures fluctuated slightly. Supply and demand were in a tight balance, inventory was decreasing, and the export market was good [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fell. The short - term upward drive for PX weakened, but the medium - term outlook was positive. PTA's price was mainly driven by raw materials, and the processing margin improved [5] - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply increased while overseas supply decreased. In the short term, it was affected by geopolitical factors. In the second quarter, supply and demand might improve, but it was under long - term pressure [5] - Short - fiber demand was weak, and the price followed the raw materials. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment during the Spring Festival [5] - Bottle - chip production decreased, inventory decreased, and the price followed the raw materials. There was still capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose first and then fell. Overseas production was low, and port inventory was decreasing. However, demand from MTO plants was weakening, and the de - stocking speed was expected to slow down [6] - Urea prices were strong. Compound fertilizer production increased, and the market sentiment was positive. The price was expected to continue to be strong [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC prices fluctuated. Production increased slightly, exports increased, but downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. In 2026, capacity reduction was expected, and the price center might rise [7] - Caustic soda prices were weak. Inventory was increasing, and the industry was generally losing money. The profit of chlor - alkali integration was expected to be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were weak. Production was increasing, supply pressure was high, and downstream demand was poor. It was recommended to short on rebounds [8] - Glass prices were weak. Inventory was decreasing, but production was losing money, and demand was insufficient. In the long term, supply would decrease, and there might be buying opportunities after a correction [8]

Report Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆ (Predicted to trend upwards with the trend fermenting on the market) [1] - **Silicon Ferros**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] Core Views - The steel market has small supply - demand contradictions, with the market sentiment being cautious, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and their prices are likely to fluctuate strongly due to market expectations of coal - related policies [4][6]. - The silicon manganese market has a fragile balance in manganese ore port inventory, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - The silicon ferros market is relatively strong due to policy influence, and demand remains resilient. It is also recommended to buy on dips [8]. Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures market continued to fluctuate narrowly. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded, production slightly declined, and the inventory accumulation slowed. The demand for hot - rolled coils improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and molten iron increased in the short term, but its sustainability is to be observed. From the downstream industries, real estate investment decline continued to expand, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall. The overall domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports reached a new high in December [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remained high in the short term, and port inventory continued to increase. The structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off - season improved month - on - month, some blast furnaces that had regular maintenance before resumed production, and molten iron production increased from a low level. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased continuously but was still at a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment still exists. The sentiment in the commodity market was volatile, and the fundamental situation of iron ore was relatively loose [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated during the day. The coke transaction price increased sporadically, the coking profit was average, and the daily production increased slightly. The coke inventory hardly changed. Attention should be paid to whether the downstream procurement volume will increase next week, and the purchasing intention of traders was average. Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the current demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing down raw material prices is still strong. The coke futures price is at a premium, but the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,519 trucks. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the resumption of production after the New Year's Day was good. The spot auction transactions continued to improve, and the transaction price increased slightly driven by the rising futures price. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly, with the production - end inventory rising sharply. Similar to coke, the carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron is likely to bottom out and rebound. The current demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level, the steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing down raw material prices is still strong. The coking coal futures price is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. Driven by the futures market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The spot transaction prices of manganese ore increased last week. On the demand side, the molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [7]. Silicon Ferros - The silicon ferros price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee increased, and there were certain expectations of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact that is not significant. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still has resilience. The supply of silicon ferros decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Zinc: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Lithium carbonate: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper decreased in price with reduced positions. The market digested Trump's attitude towards tariffs on key minerals, and the copper warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 13,378 tons to 162,717 tons. It is advisable to continue the previous strategy of selling call options at high positions [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan decreased. The aluminum rod processing fee remained negative, and the social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The short - term fundamentals deviate, and speculation should be cautious. Aluminum plants can consider participating in selling hedging. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, and the market activity is low. The domestic alumina production capacity remains around 95 million tons, and the market is in significant surplus. When the spread is low, short positions can be taken on rallies [3] Zinc - LME's decision not to accept the zinc brand warehouse receipt registrations of two South Korean enterprises since April 14, 2026 triggered a short - term bullish market. However, this news did not change the global zinc supply - demand relationship. There is a need to reduce volatility in the zinc market recently. Opportunities to sell call options with a strike price of 27,000 for the near - term contract can be considered, and short positions can be taken on rallies [4] Silver and Stainless Steel - Shanghai silver is strongly oscillating, and the stainless - steel market is active. The upstream prices are starting to rebound. The market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. In the short term, downstream buyers can continue to buy at low prices [7] Tin - Shanghai tin is oscillating at a high level with reduced positions. The warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. Although there was a landslide accident in the Alphmin mining area, the market mainly trades on sentiment. High - volatility risks should be noted, and call options with high strike prices can be sold near expiration [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate dived and then rebounded during trading. The sales strategy of upstream lithium salt factories is changing. The overall demand is resilient. The market has seen its first week of inventory increase, but the downstream inventory is decreasing rapidly. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, but short - term uncertainties are extremely high [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon opened low and closed high. The market has expectations for the technological transformation of 12,500 kva furnaces. The downstream demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon is oscillating around 48,000 yuan per ton, and funds are continuously flowing out. The trading logic has changed, and the market sentiment has cooled significantly. Participation should be cautious [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - For all the commodities in the report (cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, butadiene rubber), the current recommended operation is to stay on the sidelines due to various factors such as market uncertainties, demand - supply imbalances, and price fluctuations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined today, with general spot trading and stable basis. As of December, national commercial cotton inventory was 578.47 million tons, up 110.11 million tons month - on - month and 9.96 million tons year - on - year. By January 8, the cumulative processed Xinjiang cotton was 696.9 million tons, up 63.3 million tons year - on - year. Xinjiang's cotton planting area reduction policy was implemented, with the reduction lower than expected. Spinning mills' raw material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are general. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it's advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Internationally, Brazil's mid - south production data in December was neutral. The current crushing season is ending, with seasonal declines in cane crushing and sugar production. Attention turns to next season's output forecast. Weather models suggest lower rainfall in Brazil's main producing areas in Q1. The sugar - alcohol ratio has dropped, and Brazil's sugar output in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. Sales data was relatively positive, but sales volume decreased due to market bearish sentiment. Although Guangxi has a strong production increase expectation in the 25/26 season, the production progress is slow. If output doesn't increase later, the futures price may rise. It's recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. In Gansu, merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, with good transactions. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable. During the Spring Festival stocking period, merchants mainly package their own supplies for the market, with less purchase of farmers' apples. Some merchants are looking for high - quality apples, but the supply is limited. As of January 15, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 655.57 million tons, down 7% year - on - year, and the destocking volume was 18 million tons, up 9.9% year - on - year. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. Apples' poor quality and high purchase price may affect the destocking speed. It's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price dropped, while the synthetic rubber spot price was stable. The overseas butadiene port price was stable, and Thailand's raw material market prices mostly rose. Globally, natural rubber supply is entering the reduction period, with China's production area fully stopped and Vietnam's gradually stopping. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased, with some plants under maintenance. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate also rose. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate continued to decline, with the finished product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises decreasing for all - steel tires and increasing for semi - steel tires. This week, Qingdao's natural rubber total inventory increased to 56.82 million tons. Last week, China's butadiene social inventory increased to 1.51 million tons, and this week, the upstream butadiene port inventory increased to 4.46 million tons. Overall, demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, rubber inventory is rising, cost support is strong, and market sentiment is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures prices declined. Pulp is limited by weak downstream demand, and its short - term fundamentals are average. The spot price of coniferous pulp is 5450 yuan/ton, and that of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5300 yuan/ton. The price of broad - leaved pulp is 4700 yuan/ton. As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 201.4 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from the previous period and 0.3% month - on - month. The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaved pulp is narrowing, providing some support for coniferous pulp. Overseas prices of both coniferous and broad - leaved pulp have increased. Paper mills purchase pulp for immediate needs, and the increase in base paper prices is relatively weak. It's recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - Futures prices are oscillating. The spot price in Taicang Port increased by 10 yuan to 750 yuan/cubic meter. Overseas prices decreased, and domestic spot prices are weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease. As of January 9, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 57,500 cubic meters, up 1.77% week - on - week. Demand has decreased seasonally but is still high year - on - year. As of January 9, the total national port log inventory was 2.69 million cubic meters, up 0.75% month - on - month. The national log inventory is relatively low, with less inventory pressure. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It's recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited unless conflicts materialize, and the supply surplus remains the main factor restricting the upside space of oil prices [3] - Geopolitical risks will continue to support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the high-sulfur cracking spread may remain strong, while the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continue to be weak [4] - The impact of the Iranian situation on crude oil is significantly stronger than that on asphalt, and the upward driving force of asphalt is limited after the cost increase has been priced in [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - EIA's latest weekly data shows a surprising increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories [3] - Oil prices rebounded under the influence of concerns about the U.S. attack on Iran but then plunged after Trump's statement, and the short-term upside space is limited [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply-demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and the supply surplus restricts the upside space of oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight, fuel oil prices rose sharply due to the escalation of the Iranian situation, and the gains were partially reversed today [4] - Geopolitical risks continue to disrupt the market, and the export disruption of Iran and the slowdown of Russian shipments may tighten the Asian supply [4] - Geopolitical risk premiums are expected to support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the high-sulfur cracking spread may remain strong, while the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continue to be weak [4] Asphalt - The Iranian geopolitical situation has a stronger impact on crude oil than on asphalt, and the BU cracking spread has declined from its high [5] - Kpler data predicts that the arrivals in January will still be sufficient, and the upward driving force is limited after the cost increase has been priced in [5] - Attention should be paid to the arrivals of Venezuelan crude oil in the future [5]