1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel Oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] 2. Core Views - The geopolitical risk premium of crude oil has declined with the easing of the Iran situation, and the inventory pressure is significant in Q1 2026. Supply surplus is the main factor suppressing oil prices [3] - Geopolitical risks continue to support the high - sulfur cracking spread of fuel oil, but the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials will tend to be loose in the medium term. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [4] - The asphalt price fluctuates with crude oil, and the current upward driving force is limited. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - With the easing of the Iran situation, the geopolitical risk premium has declined. The market is gradually desensitized to geopolitical news, and the geopolitical premium space is limited without actual conflicts [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply - demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus is the main factor suppressing oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical situations continue to disrupt the fuel oil market. The threat from Iran and the slowdown of Russia's shipping rhythm support the high - sulfur cracking spread [4] - However, in the medium term, the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials will tend to be loose. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [4] Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with crude oil, but the amplitude is relatively limited. The arrival in January is still expected to be sufficient according to kpler data [5] - The current upward driving force is limited after the market has priced in the expected increase in costs due to the tightened supply of Venezuelan crude oil to China. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The real - estate market remained weak overall in December 2025, with major indicators continuing to decline significantly and the decline in investment continuing to expand. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy changes and the restoration of the market's internal driving force [1] Group 3: Summary by Key Indicators Development Investment Completion Amount (in billion yuan) - The estimated value in 2025 was 827.88 billion. The estimated year - on - year change in November was - 30.3%, in December was - 17.2%, from January to November was - 35.8%, in 2025 was - 15.9%, and in 2024 was - 10.6% [1] New Housing Starts Area (in million square meters) - The estimated value in 2025 was 587.7 million square meters. The estimated year - on - year change in November was - 20.4%, in December was - 19.4%, from January to November was - 27.6%, in 2025 was - 20.5%, and in 2024 was - 23.0% [1] Commercial Housing Sales Area (in million square meters) - The estimated value in 2025 was 881.01 million square meters. The estimated year - on - year change in November was - 8.7%, in December was - 15.6%, from January to November was - 12.9%, in 2025 was - 17.3%, and in 2024 was - 7.8% [1] Housing Construction Area (in million square meters) - The estimated value in 2025 was 6,598.9 million square meters. The estimated year - on - year change in November was - 10.0%, in December was - 9.6%, and from January to November was - 12.7% [1] Housing Completion Area (in million square meters) - The estimated value in 2025 was 603.48 million square meters. The estimated year - on - year change in November was - 18.1%, in December was - 18.3%, from January to November was - 25.5%, in 2025 was - 18.0%, and in 2024 was - 27.7% [1]

(棉花&棉纱) | | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月19日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | 女女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今天郑棉继续回调，郑棉此前上涨既有现实的支撑，也有预期和资金的推动，经过此前的上涨之后，对于利多也基本体现，下 游需求总体一般,且新疆种植面积减少情况仍有待最终观察,短期郑棉或延续调整。今天棉花现货成交一般,基差总体持稳。 截至12月底全国棉花商业库存为578.47万吨，环比增加110.11万吨，同比增加9.96 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Carbonate Lithium: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market still needs to reduce volume, and there is still some potential in the current volume and price. The market is highly concerned about the geopolitical situation. The domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". It is recommended to continue holding the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. - The overseas macro uncertainty is strong, and the capital sentiment fluctuates rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 24,000 yuan waiting for the driving force. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the market activity is not high. The alumina balance continues to be in a significant surplus, and it is advisable to participate in short - selling when the basis is low [2]. - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is still limited, and the spot trading is weak. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment, and the long - position thinking is continued [6]. - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - and short - sides have different focuses. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly, and it is advisable to hold the high - level sold call options [7]. - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. - The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. Although the cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, the upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillates around 100,000. The domestic social inventory has increased to 329,400 tons, and after the delivery and month - change of the 2601 contract, the domestic spot copper is quoted at a discount. The domestic refined copper output in January is expected to pick up month - on - month, and the domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". Hold the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum oscillates. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 160 yuan, - 290 yuan, and 130 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods has recovered to around 100 yuan, and the social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods have each increased by 13,000 tons. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the waste aluminum is still in short supply. The domestic alumina operating capacity is maintained at around 95 million tons, and the balance is in a significant surplus. When the basis is low, participate in short - selling [2]. Zinc - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the spot trading is weak. The Shanghai - London ratio oscillates at a low level, and the transfer between the internal and external zinc markets is not smooth. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumption end. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. Aluminum - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, the LME aluminum inventory has dropped to 206,000 tons, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases in late January, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The nickel inventory has increased by 2500 tons to 63,500 tons, the nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 10,000 tons to 844,000 tons. Continue the long - position thinking [6]. Tin - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - side focuses on factors such as tight ore supply, while the short - side focuses on the reality of restricted demand under high prices. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly. Hold the high - level sold call options [7]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly. The downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak, and the overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang large factories plan to reduce production by 50% at the end of the month, affecting the monthly output by more than 60,000 tons. In February, the demand for downstream polysilicon and organic silicon continues to decline, but the decline range is limited month - on - month. The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. Pay attention to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. The cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, and leading polysilicon enterprises plan to reduce production. The January production plan has been revised down to 103,000 tons. The N - type re - feed material price is firm, with a slight increase to 54,850 yuan/ton. The upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 莱粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | な☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆近期政策端竞价销售的表现为出高溢价、高成交率的特点,对价格有一定的引导。现货端国产大豆市 场呈现优质优价的特点，供应端基层粮源偏紧，价格上涨之后也呈现对需求积极性的抑制。短期持续关注国产 大豆政策和现货市场的表现。 【 ...

| | | | | SUIL FUIURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月19日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | なな☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | な☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所回落。螺纹表需有所回升，产量稍有回落，累库节奏放缓。热卷需求好转，产量小幅回升,库存继续下降,压力 仍有持缓解。钢厂利润边际修复、由于下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量有所回落。从12月数据看，地产投资降幅 继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢 ...

大宗商品周度报告 2026年1月19日 能源方面，伊朗局势紧张但目前仍在可控范围，地缘政治风险溢价相应 回落。从油价波动显著加剧的表现来看，地缘反复下市场对此逐渐脱敏，除 非冲突实际发生，否则地缘溢价空间有限。EIA最新周度数据显示美国商业 原油库存意外大增，2026年第一季度的全球原油供需结构显示库存压力显 著，供应过剩仍是压制油价的主要因素，油价短期或承压运行。 化工方面，聚酯品种来看，油价回落，成本支撑弱化，需求偏弱下短期 上行驱动减弱。建材品种方面，PVC开工小幅回升，部分企业出口增加，下 游开工下滑，采购积极性不高，继续关注出口退税是否会带动抢出口带来月 差套利机会。2026年PVC有望去产能，期价重心预计会上抬。玻璃产能继 续压缩至15.01万吨，长期玻璃供给缩减，供需压力缓解，下游临近放假，或 将迎来季节性累库。 农产品方面，巴西地理与统计研究所(IBGE)预计巴西2026年大豆产量 较2025年增加2.5%。目前拉尼娜影响逐步消退，南美丰产预期重回主要交 易逻辑。上周美国生物质燃料政策确定性增强，预计3月初公布政策。短期油 脂油料或震荡运行。 ●行情回顾：上周商品市场整体收涨1.13%，其中贵 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 12th to January 16th, the US December CPI year - on - year growth rate met expectations and remained the same as the previous value. Global geopolitical risks continued to impact the market. The US dollar index rose weekly. Stocks and commodities performed strongly, while the bond market declined. In terms of the US dollar, commodities > stocks > bonds. In the domestic market, the stock market was divided, and the bond market and commodities rose weekly. Commodities > bonds > stocks. Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes [5][8][19]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Major Asset Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, market sentiment was relatively cautious. Trump called for setting a 10% credit card interest rate cap starting from January 20, 2026, pressuring US stocks. Most global stock markets rose, with the Asia - Pacific region leading in gains. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose weekly. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.75% weekly and 5.62% year - to - date, while the MSCI US fell 0.38% weekly but rose 1.39% year - to - date [10][13][14]. - **Global Bond Market**: Recently, most Fed officials' statements were hawkish, cooling market expectations of interest rate cuts. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields generally rose, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 6BP to 4.24% weekly. The bond market was weak, and globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, data such as the US November retail sales month - on - month growth rate were good, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was volatile and strong. The US dollar index rose 0.23% weekly [16][17]. - **Global Commodity Market**: Geopolitical factors supported the weekly rise of international oil prices. Precious metal prices rose, while most non - ferrous metal and agricultural product prices fell. International silver prices rose significantly [17]. Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: Market risk appetite declined. Most major broad - based A - share indices rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks was weak. Computer and electronics sectors led in gains, while the military and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% weekly [20][22]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, the central bank's net open - market operations injected 111.28 billion yuan. The capital market fluctuated, and the bond market was strong weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led in gains. For example, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 9.41% weekly [24][25]. Major Asset Price Outlook - Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes. It is necessary to pay attention to their subsequent changes [4][26].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current pig price is still at the bottom of the bear - market cycle of the pig cycle. Considering the slight de - stocking of the breeding sow inventory in the fourth quarter of 2025, the inflection point of the pig slaughter volume is expected to appear around the middle of 2026. The pig slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase in the first half of 2026, and there is a high probability that the pig price will hit the bottom again after the Spring Festival due to the off - season demand [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Pig Slaughter - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million heads, an increase of 17.16 million heads or 2.4% compared with the previous year. The growth rate of pig slaughter was further expanded compared with the first three quarters (in the first three quarters, the national pig slaughter was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.62 million heads or 1.8%). The pig slaughter volume in 2025 was the second - highest in the past 10 years, but lower than that in 2023. The continuous release of the pig slaughter pressure in 2025 led to the pig price falling to the historical low range of 10 - 11 yuan/kg in the second half of the year [2][3] Pork Production - In 2025, the pork production was 59.38 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons or 4.1%, reaching a record high. The annual growth rate of pork production was also further expanded compared with that in the first three quarters (in the first three quarters, the pork production was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons or 3.0%). The year - on - year growth rate of pork production in 2025 was higher than the growth rate of pig slaughter volume, mainly because the pig slaughter weight remained at a high level throughout 2025 [2][4][5] Pig Inventory - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, an increase of 2.24 million heads or 0.5% compared with the end of the previous year. This was mainly due to the continuous recovery of the breeding sow population in the previous period, which led to an upward trend in the pig slaughter volume. It is expected that the medium - term pig inventory will still be at a relatively high level [3][5] Breeding Sow Inventory - At the end of 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million heads, a decrease of 1.16 million heads or 2.9%, and it was currently 101.6% of the normal reserve. The de - stocking of the breeding sow inventory accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2025, benefiting from the national advocacy of anti - involution in the pig industry and the further expansion of the industry's loss [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It assesses the impact of geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes on prices and provides trading strategies for each sector [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks in Iran are controllable, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. In Q1 2026, global crude oil supply exceeds demand, and inventory pressure is significant, which suppresses oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical risks continue to affect the fuel oil market. Geopolitical threats may tighten Asian supply, supporting high - sulfur cracking spreads in the short term, but the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials will gradually ease. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [22] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt follows crude oil price movements but with a relatively limited amplitude. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [23] - **Urea**: The weekend urea spot market was stable. With the approaching spring demand and macro - positive factors, the market is expected to oscillate strongly [24] - **Methanol**: After the Iranian geopolitical situation cooled, the methanol market had a large - amplitude rise and then a fall. Overseas plant operation rates are low, and port inventories are decreasing. However, demand is weakening, and the short - term market is in a multi - empty game [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US economic data shows resilience, and the Fed's short - term interest rate cut is unlikely. Geopolitical tensions support a long - term bullish view on precious metals [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper market oscillated around 100,000. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, LME spot premiums, and domestic copper social inventories. The "15th Five - Year Plan" investment in the power grid has a 7% annual compound growth rate. Continue the strategy of selling call options at high levels [4] - **Aluminum**: The short - term funds' sentiment is volatile. Wait for the volatility to decline before participating. Aluminum smelters can sell and hedge at high prices in the current range [5] - **Zinc**: After the market digested the news, it will gradually return to fundamental trading. High prices have a negative impact on consumption, but the supply pressure is not large. The Shanghai zinc price may correct to 24,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: There are both maintenance and restart of lead smelters. The refined - scrap price difference is 200 yuan/ton. The Shanghai lead price has a large downward pressure at the 17,800 yuan/ton level, and attention should be paid to the 17,000 yuan/ton support [9] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase by 2.5% in 2026. The market is mainly trading on the South American bumper harvest expectation. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US biomass fuel policy is expected to improve the marginal demand for US soybean oil. Palm oil has short - term high - inventory pressure. The overall view is for range - bound oscillations [37] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The China - Canada trade agreement may lead to a marginal relaxation of domestic rapeseed supply, putting short - term pressure on rapeseed prices [38] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures oscillated. The national corn spot price was stable with a slight increase. The short - term trend is wide - range oscillation, and seasonal risks should be noted later [40] - **Cotton**: The US cotton signing data is good, but the domestic Zhengzhou cotton market is in adjustment. The downstream demand is average, and the short - term fundamental driving force is weakened [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is affected by different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic market's trading focus is on the production volume difference. The Zhengzhou sugar's rebound is expected to be limited [44] - **Apple**: The apple futures price rose and then fell. The market's trading focus is on demand. The high acquisition price and strong reluctance to sell may affect the inventory reduction speed [45] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: The A - share market opened high and closed low. The stock index is expected to change from a one - way rapid rise to an oscillatingly strong trend. The upward slope will slow down. Attention should be paid to the transition of the upward driver and geopolitical disturbances [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures showed a differentiated performance, and the curve continued to steepen. The market is expected to oscillate narrowly. There may be an opportunity to flatten the curve when the 30 - 10y spread reaches 50bp [49] - **Shipping Index**: The near - month contracts of the container shipping index (European line) will oscillate in the short term, and the long - term contracts are under the pressure of the resumption of shipping. The contract rules will be adjusted [21]