Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Market sentiment has ebbed, and commodities with large previous gains face profit - taking pressure. Different agricultural products have different market trends and influencing factors. Attention should be paid to policy, weather, export, and other aspects [2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Bean No.1 - Bean No.1 futures main contract shows an adjustment trend with a reduction in positions. The domestic soybean spot price remains strong. The South American new - season soybean has a high - yield expectation, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA January report predicts the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks and inventory as of December 1, 2025. Reuters predicts a slight increase in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production. South American weather is favorable, and the probability of ENSO neutral in the first quarter is 68%. Dalian soybean meal rebounds with US soybeans. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Market sentiment has ebbed, and soybean oil and palm oil show a trend of rising and then falling. Indonesia may raise palm oil export taxes, and the Malaysian palm oil market may continue to accumulate inventory. The supply - side risk of overseas soybeans is low, and the inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil continues, with a weak supply - demand situation [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures decline significantly today. The market has high expectations for the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. If Canada changes its tariff policies on Chinese products, the export of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil to China may resume. The domestic rapeseed - related futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile trend [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to increase positions and rise. Some Northeast deep - processing enterprises slightly raise the purchase price. The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The spot price of some ports is stable or slightly weak. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning continues to decrease. The recent auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn spot has a high transaction rate and premium. The short - term trend is wide - range volatility [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continue to fluctuate. Different data sources show different trends in the number of sows and newborn piglets. The fat - to - lean price difference is high, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low. There is a large supply pressure before the Spring Festival, and the upward rebound space of the futures is limited. In the long - term, the pig price is likely to have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The near - month egg futures contract strengthens again, showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern compared with yesterday. The spot price is stable or slightly strong. The monthly year - on - year decline in chick replenishment from September to December exceeds 10%, and the egg - laying hen inventory is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to go long on the first - half - year 2026 futures contracts at low prices. The second - half - year contracts may have different trends [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The propylene futures market has good demand and smooth production enterprise shipments, but the futures price declined slightly. The plastic and polypropylene futures markets are stable, with price support from factors such as market sentiment and supply - demand [2]. - The pure benzene futures market has a weakening transaction in Shandong, and the styrene futures market is in a stalemate due to the cost pressure of pure benzene and good downstream demand [3]. - The polyester market is affected by factors such as weakening terminal demand, price fluctuations of raw materials, and inventory changes, with different trends for each product [5]. - The methanol market is affected by rumors of MTO device maintenance, and the urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range [6]. - The PVC market has weak demand and increasing inventory, while the caustic soda market has large supply pressure and limited rebound height [7]. - The soda ash market is under pressure of oversupply, and the glass market may have opportunities to go long after a callback [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The main contract opened high and declined slightly. Demand is good, and the market trading atmosphere is maintained [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures: The main contracts fluctuated. The polyethylene market is strong, and the price center of gravity moves up. The polypropylene price is supported by factors such as tight supply and downstream demand [2]. 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures: The main contract declined slightly, and the Shandong market transaction weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and consider positive spreads in the medium - term [3]. - Styrene futures: The main contract is in a stalemate. The downstream demand is good, but the cost of pure benzene suppresses the price [3]. 3.3 Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices declined, and the processing difference of PTA was moderately repaired. The demand is affected by the weakening terminal [5]. - Ethylene glycol: New domestic devices are about to be put into production, and overseas devices are shut down. It is under long - term pressure and may improve in the second quarter [5]. - Short fiber: The inventory is low, but the demand is weak. The price fluctuates with raw materials [5]. - Bottle chip: The demand is weakening, and the price is driven by cost. There is new investment in the short - term and maintenance in the future [5]. 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The market declined due to rumors of MTO device maintenance. Future imports are expected to decrease, but high inventory and downstream feedback may suppress the market [6]. - Urea: The price fluctuated. The production enterprise inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range with the approaching of spring agricultural demand [6]. 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The price was weak. The demand is low, the inventory increased, and the cost support is acceptable. The price center of gravity is expected to rise in 2026 [7]. - Caustic soda: The price declined. The supply pressure is large, and the rebound height is limited [7]. 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The price declined. It is under pressure of oversupply, and a short - selling strategy can be considered [8]. - Glass: The price fluctuated strongly. The inventory decreased, and there may be opportunities to go long after a callback [8].

| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | 氧化铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な☆☆ | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | なな女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ☆☆☆ | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜增仓、主力换月至2603合约。今日上海铜贴水扩至125元,SMM社库周内增加1.96万吨至27.38万吨。前 期260 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly, production continued to rise slightly, and inventories began to accumulate; the demand for hot-rolled coils declined, production continued to rise slightly, inventories were slowly depleted, but the pressure still needed to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in off-season demand [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Production - Rebar weekly production was 191.04 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.82 tons; wire rod production was 66.26 tons; hot-rolled coil production was 305.51 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.00 tons; medium plate production was 160.29 tons. The total production of the five major varieties was on an upward trend [1] 3.2 Inventory - Rebar factory inventory was 147.93 tons, a week-on-week increase of 8.56 tons; social inventory was 290.18 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.52 tons; the total of factory and social inventories was 438.11 tons, a week-on-week increase of 16.08 tons. Hot-rolled coil factory inventory was 77.32 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.00 tons; social inventory was 291.17 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.83 tons; the total of factory and social inventories was 368.13 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.43 tons [1] 3.3 Consumption - Rebar weekly consumption (excluding imports and exports) was 174.96 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 25.48 tons. Hot-rolled coil consumption was on a downward trend, with a week-on-week decrease in consumption [1]

| 国夜期货 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月08日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ★☆☆ | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属回落，美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，咯低于预期但好于前值，ISM非制造业PMI54.4好于预 期和前值,上期所调整白银期货交易限额、合约交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。开年全球地缘乱局延续, 资金情绪主导剧烈波动,贵金属在前高位置测试阻力,考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下降后寻找再入场机 会。今晚关注美国周度初请失业金数据。 ★美国务卿称下周将与丹麦举行会晤，讨论格陵兰岛议题。 ★特朗普:20 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and current investment prospects [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and available investment chances [1] - Timber: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - term trend and proper investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balance of long and short trends and poor market operability [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing market conditions, supply - demand situations, and inventory data for each, and giving corresponding operation suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices dropped significantly today with a large reduction in positions, and the recent rise was mainly driven by expectations. The downstream situation is average, and spot sales are normal with a stable - to - weak basis [2] - Although new cotton production has increased significantly, commercial inventory is lower year - on - year, and the sales progress is faster, providing strong support to the market. Demand remains stable during the off - season [2] - As of December 25th, cumulative processed lint reached 669.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. As of December 15th, national commercial cotton inventory was 534.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.63 million tons [2] - Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is resilient, with low finished - product inventory, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Internationally, the focus is on the production expectation gap in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar - making season, India's production progress is fast with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar output, while Thailand's progress is slow and output is lower than expected [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. In December in Guangxi, both production and sales decreased. December production was 180.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.1 million tons; sales were 79.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.18 million tons; industrial inventory was 105.71 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.21 million tons [3] - The significant drop in sales is due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there is a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season, the production progress is slow. If production cannot increase later, futures prices will rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated at a high level. Spot prices remained stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, some soft - semi - commodity fruit farmers lowered their asking prices, and their willingness to sell increased [4] - Cold - storage merchants in the origin mainly packed their own goods for the market and had less procurement of farmers' goods. Due to pre - Spring Festival stocking by merchants, cold - storage trading volume increased [4] - As of December 26th, national cold - storage apple inventory was 702.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.76%. The destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.17% [4] - The market trading logic has shifted to demand. This year's apple quality is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell may affect the destocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR dropped slightly, while the futures price of butadiene rubber BR rose slightly. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, synthetic rubber spot prices rose, and the port price of external butadiene continued to rise. The price of the Thai raw - material market was stable with a slight increase [5] - Globally, natural rubber supply has entered the production - reduction period. In China, the Yunnan production area has completely stopped tapping, the Hainan production area is accelerating the stop of tapping, and the Vietnam production area will gradually stop later. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants was stable, with some plants under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise [5] - Last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises continued to rise [5] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 54.83 million tons. Before the festival, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber continued to drop to 1.47 million tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory dropped to 4.13 million tons [5] - After the festival, demand is expected to recover, natural rubber supply will decrease, synthetic rubber supply will be stable, natural rubber inventory will continue to accumulate, synthetic rubber inventory will continue to decline, cost support will strengthen, and market sentiment will weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - Pulp prices dropped today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space may be restricted. Attention should be paid to macro and capital trends [6] - As of January 8, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 200.7 million tons, an increase of 1.0 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The inventory continued to accumulate [6] - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, providing some support for softwood pulp. Recently, the external quotes of softwood and hardwood pulp have increased. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp based on rigid demand, and the rise of base - paper prices is relatively weak. It is recommended to go long at low prices [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. Externally, quotes decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease [7] - As of January 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 5.65 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Demand has entered the off - season, and the outbound volume has decreased recently [7] - As of January 2nd, the total national port log inventory was 267 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.12%. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

| VV V SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年01月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所回落。 本周螺纹表需继续下滑，产量小幅回升，库存开始累积。热卷需求回落，产量继续小幅回升，库存缓慢去 化，压力仍有待缓解。钢厂利润边际修复，高炉减产态势明显放缓，铁水短期企稳回升，关注唐山等地环保限产持续性。从下 游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The oil price is mainly in a downward trend with a loose supply - demand situation. Precious metals are affected by funds and geopolitical situations, and investors can consider participating in breakthroughs or waiting for re - entry opportunities. Various non - ferrous metals, energy, chemical, agricultural products, and financial products have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, policies, and market emotions [2][3] Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The current market is in a pattern of supply surplus and inventory accumulation. In 2026Q1, there is significant inventory accumulation pressure. The US - Venezuela situation may lead to an increase in Venezuelan oil production and exports if sanctions are relaxed. The oil price is in a downward trend [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The market is focused on geopolitical factors. Venezuelan supply fluctuations are a short - term issue, and the expected supply recovery may increase the surplus concern. Venezuelan heavy - product supply disruptions may support high - sulfur fuel oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure [22] - **Asphalt**: The northern spot price has stabilized, and the southern market shows signs of recovery. The cost may rise if the US maintains the blockade on Venezuela, but there is resistance if the raw - material risk is false [23] - **Urea**: The urea market is in a tight supply - demand situation in the short term. The production enterprises are reducing inventory. Although the daily output is expected to increase, the spring agricultural demand will limit the downward space [24] - **Methanol**: There are rumors of MTO device overhauls in East China, causing the methanol price to fall. Overseas device operation rates are low, and future imports are expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to the operation of coastal olefin devices and port inventory [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. The US economic data and policy adjustments affected the market. Geopolitical situations and funds are driving price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the initial jobless claims data [3] - **Copper**: Overnight, the copper price dropped from a high level. Domestic copper market focuses on fundamentals, and the previous option combination strategy can still be held [4] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: Overnight, non - ferrous metals declined as a whole. The Shanghai aluminum price was boosted by funds but failed to reach a historical high. The short - term trend deviates from fundamentals, and aluminum producers can consider selling for hedging [5] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the Shanghai aluminum price trend. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost in some areas may increase. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years [6] - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity remains stable, and the market is in surplus. The cash cost is expected to decrease, and the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the market sentiment cools down [7] - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc price is approaching a two - year high but is under pressure. The high price has a negative impact on consumption, and there is a risk of a phased correction [8] - **Lead**: The tax cost of recycled lead has increased, and there are still soft squeeze - out pressures. The price is facing upward pressure, but there are also concerns about inventory accumulation and price correction [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price adjusted overnight. The market is in a "buy - on - rising" mode. Stainless steel exports are accelerating inventory reduction, and a long - position strategy is recommended in the short term [10] - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin price decreased with reduced positions. The impact of Venezuelan tin exports is limited, and selling call options at 350,000 yuan can be considered [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The lithium price is oscillating at a high level. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream has some rigid - demand purchases. The overall inventory is decreasing, and the ore price is strong [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The market funds are flowing out. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. Attention should be paid to high - level transactions [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price touched 9,000 yuan/ton and then fell. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is weak. The inventory has pressure, and the futures price may oscillate and correct [14] Steel and Related Products - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel price oscillates at night. The demand for thread is weak in the off - season, while the demand for hot - rolled coil is recovering. The steel mill profit is improving, and the iron - water output is stabilizing. The steel price may remain strong in the short term [15] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore futures price oscillates. The global shipment is seasonally decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand is weak, but there is rigid - replenishment demand. Attention should be paid to high - level fluctuations [16] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: - **Coke**: The price continued to rise last night. The production is slightly decreasing, and the inventory is rising. The downstream demand is still resilient, but there is pressure on the fundamentals after price adjustment [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price continued to rise last night. The Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased, and the production is slightly decreasing. The overall situation is similar to that of coke, with pressure on the fundamentals after price adjustment [18] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates upward. The manganese ore price is rising, and the inventory has a structural problem. The demand is seasonally decreasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. A callback - buying strategy is recommended [19] - **Ferrosilicon**: The price oscillates upward. Affected by policies, the cost is expected to decrease. The demand is still resilient, and the supply is decreasing significantly. A callback - buying strategy is recommended [20] Chemical Products - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: - **Pure Benzene**: The price rose slightly at night. The import is sufficient, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly rising. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [26] - **Styrene**: The production and sales of enterprises are stable, but the raw - material cost is weak, which suppresses the price rebound [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The enterprises' sales are smooth, and the prices are rising. The downstream follows up well, but the factory's mentality is cautious [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: - **PVC**: Affected by the policy, the price is rising. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large. In 2026, the production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the price center may rise [29] - **Caustic Soda**: The price oscillates strongly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand from alumina is still there, but the industry is in a loss. The rebound height may be suppressed [29] - **PX and PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA fell at night. The terminal demand is weak, and the polyester cash - flow is poor. The short - term external disturbances are increasing, and the PTA's main driver is the raw material [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic new - device production is approaching, and the overseas device shutdowns are increasing. The port inventory is rising, and the price is under pressure in the long term. There may be a phased improvement in the second quarter [31] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: - **Short - Fiber**: The enterprise inventory is low, but the downstream demand is weak. The price follows the raw material. Band - trading can be considered according to the production and demand rhythm [32] - **Bottle - Chip**: The demand turns weak, and the price follows the raw material. There is new production in the short term, and there are over - capacity problems in the long term [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Related Products**: - **Soybean and Bean Meal**: The market expects the US soybean production to remain stable, and the global soybean production may decrease. South American weather is good, and the bean - meal price follows the US soybean price. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The macro - environment affects the prices. The soybean oil performs better than the palm oil. The palm - oil inventory may continue to accumulate, and the overall market is expected to oscillate [37] - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The domestic soybean market is boosted by the macro - environment and policy. The auction shows high premiums and high transaction rates. Attention should be paid to policies and the market [39] - **Rapeseed and Related Products**: The rapeseed and rapeseed - meal inventories of coastal oil mills are zero, and the rapeseed - oil inventory is decreasing. The market expects the China - Canada economic and trade relationship to improve, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [38] - **Corn**: The overall inventory of corn is low, and the number of vehicles at deep - processing enterprises is small. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [40] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pig**: The pig futures oscillate, and the spot price is slightly strong. The data on the number of sows is different. There is a risk of secondary fattening, but the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is large, and the price may have a secondary bottom in the first half of next year [41] - **Egg**: The near - month egg futures are slightly strong, and the far - month contracts are under pressure. The egg - laying chicken inventory is expected to decrease in the first half of 2026. A long - position strategy for the first - half - year contracts is recommended [42] - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price rose significantly yesterday, and the inventory is relatively low. The demand is stable in the off - season. The industry can consider hedging, and long positions should be held with caution [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar production in India is fast, while in Thailand it is slow. The domestic Guangxi sugar production is slow, but there is an expected increase in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar may be limited [44] - **Apple**: The apple futures price oscillates at a high level. The cold - storage sales are increasing, but the quality is poor, and the high price may affect inventory reduction [45] - **Wood and Pulp**: - **Wood**: The price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - **Pulp**: The pulp price fell slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the price increase is limited. The port inventory is rising, and the needle - broad price difference is narrowing. A low - buying strategy is recommended [47] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rose, and the trading volume increased. The futures index contracts showed different trends, and all contracts were at a discount. The global risk assets are not significantly affected, and the stock index is expected to remain strong in the short term [48] - **Treasury Bond**: The 30 - year treasury - bond futures led the decline. The central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations and had a net withdrawal. Attention should be paid to the central bank's operations and the yield - curve trend [49]

| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ☆☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 错 | ★☆☆ 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ☆☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周三沪铜高位震荡,晚间关注美国ADP就业、耐用品订单等数据。国内观铜103410元,上海贴水50元,精废价差 6000元。因跨年涨势快LME市场实值期权多头履约密集，伦铜短线目标扩至1.35 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided text. The content mainly consists of data on various financial products such as ETFs and indices, including their prices, price changes, implied volatility (IV), IV quantiles, skew indices, and related historical trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the 50ETF price increased from 3.174 to 3.220 with corresponding daily price increases of 2.22%, 1.92%, and - 0.46%. The monthly IV increased from 12.81% to 15.24%, and the next - month IV from 14.41% to 16.87% [1] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 16.30%, 64.80%, 60.00% and 21.40%, 60.70%, 56.60% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 42.60%, 76.70%, 76.30% and 41.80%, 68.70%, 67.80% respectively [1] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 85.71 today, compared to 79.41 yesterday, 94.80 two days ago, 101.59 three days ago, and 92.86 four days ago [2] 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2025/12/31 to 2026/1/7, the Shanghai 300ETF price changed from 4.753 to 4.977, with corresponding daily price changes of - 0.42%, 1.91%, 1.55%, and - 0.38%. The monthly IV increased from 13.69% to 15.90%, and the next - month IV from 15.44% to 17.35% [3] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 28.10%, 46.90% and 29.00%, 47.00% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 45.90% and 47.70%, 67.00%, 62.50% respectively [3] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 92.17 today, compared to 88.31 yesterday, 98.98 two days ago, 103.24 three days ago, and 97.70 four days ago [5] 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shenzhen 300ETF price changed from 4.921 to 4.977, with corresponding daily price changes of 1.95%, 1.52%, and - 0.38%. The monthly IV increased from 13.82% to 15.90%, and the next - month IV from 15.40% to 17.35% [6] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 22.40%, 44.80%, 55.50% and 26.30%, 47.40%, 54.60% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 46.70%, 59.80%, 69.40% and 45.80%, 58.20%, 64.30% respectively [6] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 92.95 today, compared to 84.27 yesterday, 96.64 two days ago, 97.26 three days ago, and 97.01 four days ago [11] 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price increased from 7.792 to 7.999, with corresponding daily price increases of 2.78%, 4.92%, and 2.66%. The monthly IV increased from 18.07% to 21.09%, and the next - month IV from 19.10% to 21.53% [13] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 40.00%, 69.70%, 74.60% and 29.80%, 58.00%, 62.70% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 46.40%, 72.90%, 74.20% and 41.40%, 64.90%, 66.30% respectively [13] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 95.76 today, compared to 91.41 yesterday, 97.43 two days ago, 103.65 three days ago, and 99.36 four days ago [16] 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price increased from 3.075 to 3.157, with corresponding daily price increases of 2.74%, 2.15%, and 0.51%. The monthly IV increased from 18.47% to 21.22%, and the next - month IV from 19.61% to 22.17% [20] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 42.00%, 68.50% and 33.90%, 60.30%, 74.60%, 63.50% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 49.70%, 72.10%, 74.60%, 68.00% and 45.00%, 65.70% respectively [20] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 103.24 today, compared to 96.54 yesterday, 89.04 two days ago, 86.53 three days ago, and 94.69 four days ago [25] 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the ChiNext ETF price increased from 3.281 to 3.311, with corresponding daily price increases of 2.98%, 0.67%, and 0.24%. The monthly IV increased from 24.55% to 26.32%, and the next - month IV from 26.88% to 28.42% [26] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 43.60%, 59.50%, 59.10% and 48.00%, 60.70%, 60.30% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 57.80%, 65.80%, 69.10% and 64.90%, 68.40%, 63.00% respectively [26] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 92.31 today, compared to 90.34 yesterday, 96.58 two days ago, 95.66 three days ago, and 95.52 four days ago [32] 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shenzhen 100ETF price changed from 3.515 to 3.542, with corresponding daily price changes of 1.83%, 1.08%, and - 0.31%. The monthly IV increased from 17.73% to 19.45%, and the next - month IV from 19.06% to 21.47% [36] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 31.80%, 49.70%, 57.50% and 34.10%, 50.50%, 55.20% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 44.70%, 56.50%, 67.00% and 48.40%, 56.60%, 65.70% respectively [36] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 92.01 today, compared to 92.19 yesterday, 97.30 two days ago, 101.19 three days ago, and 101.65 four days ago [39] 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price increased from 1.479 to 1.520, with corresponding daily price increases of 4.38%, 1.76%, and 1.00%. The monthly IV increased from 27.09% to 28.95%, and the next - month IV from 29.59% to 32.00% [45] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 44.40%, 49.20%, 52.70%, 60.60% and 55.50%, 59.50%, 64.50%, 69.30% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 52.60%, 55.60%, 63.70%, 68.00% [45] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 84.76 today, compared to 81.12 yesterday, 91.56 two days ago, 96.21 three days ago, and 97.41 four days ago [47] 3.9 STAR 50ETF - **15 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the STAR 50ETF price increased from 1.430 to 1.471, with corresponding daily price increases of 4.23%, 1.89%, and 0.96%. The monthly IV increased from 27.66% to 30.50%, and the next - month IV from 29.05% to 33.31% [50] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 47.70%, 51.70%, 51.00%, 59.10% and 62.80%, 65.00%, 64.90%, 70.10% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 57.50%, 60.10%, 70.00%, 73.50% [50] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 90.94 today, compared to 86.62 yesterday, 97.19 two days ago, 96.99 three days ago, and 96.38 four days ago [57] 3.10 300 Index - **7 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the 300 Index price changed from 4717.746 to 4776.666, with corresponding daily price changes of 1.90%, 1.55%, and - 0.29%. The monthly IV increased from 13.52% to 15.34%, and the next - month IV from 15.84% to 17.73% [63] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 31.40%, 63.60%, 57.50% and 25.90%, 56.40% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 45.30%, 66.10%, 73.00% and 46.60%, 61.70%, 51.30%, 65.60% respectively [63] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 103.84 today, compared to 89.05 yesterday, 73.68 two days ago, 97.40 three days ago, and 105.72 four days ago [67] 3.11 1000 Index - **7 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the 1000 Index price increased from 7753.880 to 7906.420, with corresponding daily price increases of 2.09%, 1.43%, and 0.53%. The monthly IV increased from 19.14% to 20.60%, and the next - month IV from 21.08% to 21.92% [68] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 36.30%, 54.60%, 52.60% and 21.20%, 34.90%, 31.00% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 44.80%, 63.20%, 55.10% and 26.50%, 46.80%, 35.50% respectively [68] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is 98.78 today, compared to 90.94 yesterday, 95.62 two days ago, 111.32 three days ago, and 102.69 four days ago [72] 3.12 Shanghai Composite 50 Index - **7 - day Data**: From 2026/1/5 to 2026/1/7, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index price changed from 3099.746 to 3145.120, with corresponding daily price changes of 2.26%, 1.90%, and - 0.43%. The monthly IV increased from 12.42% to 15.54%, and the next - month IV from 56.52% to 68.21% [76] - **IV Quantiles**: The 1 - year and 2 - year monthly IV quantiles are 19.10%, 84.40% and 15.90%, 74.40%, 56.60% respectively. The 1 - year and 2 - year next - month IV quantiles are 69.30%, 68.50%, 64.40% and 84.20%, 83.40%, 97.10%, 98.50% respectively [76] - **Skew Index**: The skew index for the main contract month is