Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Crude oil supply is in a mixed state of immediate increase and geopolitical risks, with a clear inventory accumulation process. Oil prices have limited upside space, and a protective strategy combining short futures and call options is recommended [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors, showing a short-term strong trend. Low-sulfur fuel oil has abundant supply and weak demand, mainly following cost fluctuations [2]. - Asphalt market has increased pre-holiday stocking enthusiasm, with a decline in overall inventory levels. The subsequent demand is boosted by seasonal factors, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [3]. - Liquefied petroleum gas has a marginal improvement in supply and demand, with an expected increase in overall consumption. The LPG futures price has rebounded slightly from the previous bottom [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply is in a multi - empty intertwined state with inventory accumulation of 2.4% in the third quarter, including 0.5% for crude oil and 5.5% for refined oil. The inventory structure has shifted to upstream crude oil. A protective strategy is recommended [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Middle East shipments are high, but geopolitical factors cause concerns about supply reduction, supporting the FU trend [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [2]. Asphalt - Pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm has increased, with a decrease in refinery and social inventories. The October production plan has a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Import arrivals in the South China region have decreased due to typhoons, and overall consumption is expected to increase. The LPG futures price has rebounded slightly [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Alumina: No clear indication from the symbol, but it's in a weak - running state [1][3] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Zinc: ☆☆, indicating a long/short bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the market [1] - Lead: ☆☆, same as above [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Tin: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Polysilicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, mine production, inventory changes, and market sentiment. Different metals are in different market states, with some showing upward or downward trends, while others are in a state of shock [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper closed up in shock. The spot copper was reported at 82,210 yuan, and the Shanghai copper discount was 5 yuan. The supply absence of Grasberg for two quarters affected the balance sheet and the price shock center. Technically, LME copper showed potential for a trend breakthrough, and the MA20 moving average provided strong support. After the long - term damage to the supply of major copper mines, funds poured in and increased positions, driving up the price. The support level of LME copper rose to $10,000, and the Shanghai copper index was around 79,700 - 80,300 yuan, with 83,000 - 85,000 yuan being the high - level area [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly today, with a spot discount of 10 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 25,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The destocking before the National Day was neutral, and the apparent consumption in September was basically flat year - on - year. The demand was resilient but lacked highlights. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot quotation remained at 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax rate policy increased enterprise costs, making it more resilient than Shanghai aluminum. However, the industry inventory was at a high level, and the peak - season demand remained to be seen. The operating capacity of alumina exceeded 98 million tons, and the industry inventory continued to rise. The supply surplus was obvious, and the domestic and foreign spot prices continued to decline. The current price still had a profit for the production capacity in Shanxi and Henan, so it was not enough to trigger production cuts. The weak - running support of alumina was around the June low of 2,800 yuan [3] Zinc - As the National Day holiday approached, the downstream restocking was coming to an end. The production expectation of Huoshaoyun zinc smelter was strengthening, and the zinc fundamentals were weakening. Short - sellers increased their positions significantly. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc increased by 20,700 lots to 251,000 lots, and the main contract touched a minimum of 21,665 yuan/ton. The average price of domestic concentrate TC in October was significantly reduced by 300 yuan/metal ton. With the poor smelting profit of imported ore, the domestic mines were less willing to offer concessions. The support level of Shanghai zinc was still to be concerned at 21,500 yuan/ton. The LME zinc inventory was low, so beware of the possible sudden soft squeeze on the overseas market during the holiday. It was recommended that short - sellers close their positions before the holiday to avoid uncertainties during the National Day holiday [4] Lead - The previously overhauled primary lead smelters resumed production one after another. After the profit of secondary lead smelters was repaired, the resumption of production also increased. The downstream restocking before the holiday was basically over, and the long holiday brought short - term oversupply. The lead fundamentals were weakening, and the long - positions of Shanghai lead accelerated to leave the market. The market dropped significantly, erasing the monthly increase in a single day. The supply of lead concentrates was still tight, and the cost support around 16,500 yuan/ton was still to be concerned [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was running weakly, and the market trading was dull. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 325 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 25 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferrochrome was quoted at 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support rebounded slightly and was further hyped up due to the political situation turmoil, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons to 40,900 tons, the nickel ferrochrome inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 909,000 tons. The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel were exhausted, and the nickel price was running weakly, about to start a downward trend [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed down in shock, and the MA40 moving average provided support. Pay attention to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 in the evening. On the supply side, pay attention to the change in the refined tin operating rate after the major factories resume production after the holiday. On the demand side, the domestic tin upstream and downstream continued the destocking rhythm and actively restocked before the holiday. Pay attention to the inventory change after the holiday, and the actual demand still lacked highlights. The tin price was difficult to break out of a trend market for the time being. After the restocking was over, it was recommended to hold a light position and wait and see during the holiday [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated, and the market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 136,800 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 33,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 1,400 tons to 61,000 tons. After the price dropped rapidly, the downstream took the opportunity to take delivery, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,000 tons. The middle - stream began to be cautious. The transfer of cargo rights was mainly from the upstream to the downstream. The low - level support of the lithium carbonate futures price emerged, but the selling actions in the industry chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut was implemented and the anti - involution tide ebbed, the price was under pressure from the expected end. Still pay attention to the news on September 30th [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased in position and fell back to 8,600 yuan/ton, partly affected by the weakening sentiment of the coking coal market. The spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon was reduced by 50 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton. Although the expected reduction in the polysilicon production schedule in October was limited, the drag on the demand for industrial silicon was relatively controllable. However, the time node of production cuts in the Sichuan and Yunnan production areas of industrial silicon was still uncertain, and the supply - side contraction rhythm was not clear. From the current supply - demand pattern, it was difficult to form an effective driving force to support the continuous upward movement of the price, and the upward space was still restricted. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures market oscillation narrowed. With the gradual advancement of policies, the sentiment gradually returned to rationality. The production reduction intensity of polysilicon in October might be less than the previous market expectation, and the overall output contraction of the industry was limited. The industry was still in the period of high - level inventory accumulation, and the rise of the spot price slowed down. The short - term market was expected to maintain an oscillating operation. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [11]

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Operation of Major Asset Classes (20250922 - 20250926) - US Inflation Data Meets Expectations, with Commodities Rising Overall [1] - Timeframe: September 22 - September 26, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global: The market's performance last week was influenced by economic data. The US 8 - month PCE year - on - year growth rate met market expectations. The dollar index ended the week higher, stocks and bonds declined, and commodities rose. In general, commodities > stocks > bonds in terms of dollar - denominated assets [4][7]. - Domestic: China's industrial enterprise profits returned to positive growth in August year - on - year. The stock market and commodities ended the week higher, and the bond market declined. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][20]. - Outlook: The focus is on the release of domestic and foreign macro - data during the National Day. There are important data such as non - farm payrolls to be released, leading to high market uncertainty. After the holiday, price fluctuations of major asset classes may increase [4][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - Most global stock markets declined. US stocks had a weekly correction. From a regional perspective, the three major US stock indexes ended the week lower, with a relatively large decline in the Asia - Pacific region. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index continued to operate at a low level [9]. - Specific index performance: MSCI US was down 0.35%, S&P 500 was down 0.31%, MSCI Asia - Pacific was down 1.02%, etc. [12][13] 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - Fed officials had some differences in the path of dollar interest rate cuts this year. Medium - and long - term US bond yields generally rose. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 6BP to 4.2% weekly, and the bond market declined. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The initial value of the month - on - month growth rate of US durable goods orders in August far exceeded expectations. The dollar index rose weekly, and most non - US currencies depreciated against the dollar. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated weakly. The weekly increase of the dollar index was 0.55% [17]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Geopolitical factors caused disruptions again, and international oil prices ended the week higher. Expectations of dollar interest rate cuts supported international precious metal prices. Most industrial metals and agricultural product prices fell [19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - Market sentiment changed little. Most of the major broad - based A - share indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, electronics and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while consumer services underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21% weekly [21]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The central bank's net injection in the open market operation was 940.6 billion yuan. The liquidity marginally eased, and the bond market was weak. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [25]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market continued to rise weekly. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the black - related sectors underperformed [26].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月29日 (原油) 上周国际油价上涨,布伦特12合约涨4.19%，SC11合约涨0.88%。围绕俄乌冲突的俄能源设施遇袭 及美国敦促印度、土耳其停止购买俄油仍令市场对供应存在担忧,周末联合国对伊朗的"快速恢复 制裁"机制已生效,但伊朗未采取军事回应等极端手段的情况下实际出口难有持续性影响。10月5日 OPEC+会议自愿减产8国或决定进一步小幅增产,原油反弹至震荡区间上沿后进一步上行空间愈发有 限,但考虑到十一前后她缘风险仍存,建议延续期货空头叠加看涨期权的配置思路。 (责金属) 周五美国公布PCE数据符合预期,市场维持年内连续降息判断,不过美联储多位宫员讲话体观谨慎态 度。本周关注美国政府停摆的解决进展以及非农就业数据发布。贵金属中期偏强趋势未改但国庆期 间波动风险较高，建议离场观望。 (铜) 上周五铜价调整，伦铜回调到MA5日均线。四季度铜价交投节奏，情绪面继续关注10月、12月两次 议息会议前后的指标变动，同时Grasberg基本缺席两个季度的供应已经影响了平衡表，对价格震荡 重心的影响较大。技术上，伦铜显露趋势突破潜力，M ...

【豆一】 国产大豆盘面延续减仓价格反弹的势头,价格表现强于进口大豆,价差呈现扩大的走势。国产新季大豆上市在 即，新豆报价偏疲弱。进口大豆方面阿根廷农业政策本周波动较大，一周之内发生了从免税出口到出口税收减 免的政令结束。中国本周加快了阿根廷大豆的采购量。我们倾向于即使不采购美国大豆,叠加中国庞大的库存 缓冲和南美大豆的供应,后续国内豆类会进行逐步去库,容易使得明年一季度大豆供应趋紧,但是我们倾向大 豆供应链缺口风险会缓解，明年二季度大豆供应情况重点关注巴西新作情况。短期关注国产大豆收购量和收购 价格的指引以及进口大豆表现。 【大豆&豆粕】 今日连粕主力合约继续下跌0.81%。本周一阿根廷出口政策出台后连箱下跌较大。截至周三相关产品销售额达到 70亿美元上限，阿根廷取消豆类免税政策。期间国内大约进口了220多万吨阿根廷大豆。近期豆粕行情受国外政 策扰动太大,继续观望,长期我们继续谨慎看多连粕。 (豆油&棕榈油) | | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Olefins: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PX: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Bottle Chips: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PTA: ★☆★ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Short Fibers: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of various chemical products are complex, with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and downstream demand influencing their price trends. Each product has its own unique situation, including both short - term and long - term influencing factors [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly during the day. The market news was mixed, with supply - demand dynamics in play. Downstream factories were hesitant, and overall market trading was average [2] - Polyethylene had tight spot resources at the end of the month, with upstream suppliers holding firm on prices. Downstream factories had completed stocking, and market caution persisted. Supply - demand was weakly stable, and prices fluctuated within a range [2] - For polypropylene, international oil prices were strong recently, strengthening cost support. Supply - side device maintenance was high, downstream industry开工 increased, and some factories stocked up before the holiday. The market focused on reducing inventory through cautious price cuts [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The intraday price of unified benzene futures fluctuated around 5900 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China declined slightly, and trading volume in Shandong decreased. Overall operation slightly increased, processing margins oscillated at a low level, downstream industries stocked up before the holiday, and port inventories decreased. However, high import volumes and expected future demand decline limited the rebound of pure benzene [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly during the day. Jiangsu port inventories increased before the National Day, reaching a high level in the same period in the past five years. Downstream rigid demand was stable, but spot demand was weak. Pre - holiday stocking was lower than expected, hindering price increases [3] Polyester - PX's upward momentum weakened, and its valuation declined, releasing negative factors. Crude oil's rebound drove synchronous rebounds in PX and PTA. As the long holiday approached, positions on the futures market were continuously reduced. PTA's profitability improved slightly but remained poor. TA - PX spreads narrowed. The polyester filament market saw a significant increase in sales at the end of the day, fulfilling pre - holiday stocking expectations. However, future supply - demand remained under pressure [5] - Domestic ethylene glycol operation decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to decline. The supply pressure was not significant in reality, but supply - demand was expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread was under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations. Risks included low port inventories and uncertainties in the trial runs of two new devices [5] - Short - fiber new production capacity was limited, production was at a high level, and inventories decreased. The recovery of peak - season demand improved industry expectations. Pre - holiday downstream stocking benefits were realized, and long - short spreads should be exited at high levels [5] - A major bottle - chip device in South China stopped production due to seawater backflow caused by a typhoon, making the bottle - chip trend slightly stronger. Long - term over - capacity was a pressure, and the processing margin recovery space was limited. Attention should be paid to the restart schedule of the stopped device [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports were temporarily low, and the operation of coastal MTO devices increased. Some low - end imported goods flowed to the surrounding inland areas, resulting in port inventory reduction. Pre - holiday downstream stocking demand supported the market, but high port inventories and expected inventory accumulation limited the upward potential of the market. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas device gas restrictions [6] - After a slight increase in urea prices, downstream follow - up was cautious. Agricultural demand was weak, and industrial compound fertilizer demand was insufficient. Daily production remained high, overall demand was less than supply, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate. The oversupply situation persisted, and the export window was approaching its end. Attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC continued to have a high - supply and high - inventory pattern. This week's operation increased month - on - month, with new devices being tested and put into mass production, resulting in high supply pressure. Domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking intention was low, and foreign demand was weak. The industry continued to accumulate inventory. Chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and cost support was not obvious. PVC might show a weakening oscillating trend [7] - Caustic soda was in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. The downstream demand for 32% caustic soda in Shandong was poor, and inventories continued to increase. Alumina plants had low unloading efficiency, and the enthusiasm of traders and downstream customers to receive goods decreased. Device maintenance and restart coexisted, operation fluctuated slightly, and supply continued to be under high pressure. Downstream profits shrank, and there was resistance to high prices. In the short term, Shandong downstream purchases reduced prices, showing a weak reality. However, there might be stocking demand before the future downstream alumina production, and the strong expectation could not be disproven. The futures price might oscillate [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was weak during the day. Recently, manufacturers reduced inventory, and supply was at a high level. The photovoltaic industry's fundamentals improved in August, with increased production capacity, driving up the demand for heavy soda ash. However, the photovoltaic industry had cooled down, and the expected increase in heavy soda ash demand was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and opportunities to short at high levels should be sought, but caution was needed near the cost level [8] - Glass weakened during the day. Prices continued to rise today, and manufacturers' overall sales were good. The melting rate was oscillating at a relatively high level. Processing orders improved month - on - month but were still insufficient, and some project orders increased. The actual situation of whether Zhengkang coal - made gas would be centrally used in Shahe should be continuously monitored. In the short term, market sentiment was high, and with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of glass production capacity control, the futures price was expected to oscillate strongly. In the long term, if production capacity reduction did not materialize, the market might return to a weak - reality trading pattern [8]

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標網油 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | なな☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆盘面延续减仓价格反弹的势头,价格表现强于进口大豆,价差呈现扩大的走势。国产新季大豆上市在 即，新豆报价偏疲弱。进口大豆方面阿根廷农业政策本周波动较大，一周之内发生了从免税出口到出口税收减 免的政令结束。中国本周加快了阿根廷大豆的采购量。我们倾向于即使不采购美国 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年09月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | 女女女 | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面明显回落。螺纹表需环比回暖，产量逐渐趋稳，库存继续下降。热卷需求、产量均稍有回落，库存继续小幅累积。铁 水产量仍有上升，产业链负反馈压力缓解，不过吨钢利润欠佳制约进一步复产空间。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅扩大，基 建、制造业增速继续放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。宏观氛围转弱，市场情绪低 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear short - term upward trend with investment opportunities [1] - Fuel Oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear short - term upward trend with investment opportunities [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear short - term trend with investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear short - term trend with investment opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price rebounded overnight. Geopolitical risks may increase in the period around National Day, with short - term upward risks remaining, but the medium - term surplus pressure means the bearish trend continues. Crude - related futures hedging short positions should be combined with call options [1] - Multiple factors such as the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the advancement of the Iranian nuclear issue have driven up oil prices and fuel oil prices. The continuous attacks on Russian refineries have affected fuel supply, and the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian fuel exports may strengthen. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from weak demand and other factors [2] - In the asphalt market, there is a pre - holiday rush for work in the north, and typhoon weather affects demand in the south. The supply pressure is weaker than expected, and the supply - demand balance continues [2] - For liquefied petroleum gas, refinery self - use has squeezed external supply, and import arrivals are affected by weather. With the coming of the gas consumption peak season, the overall consumption is expected to increase, and the market has bottomed out and rebounded [2] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rebound, with the SC11 contract rising 0.49%. Geopolitical risks may increase around National Day, mainly in the Russia - Ukraine and Iranian nuclear issues. Without direct military conflicts, the restoration of Iranian nuclear sanctions and restricted Venezuelan exports have limited long - term impact on actual exports, but short - term fluctuations and changes in export directions may occur. If the situation in Eastern Europe further deteriorates, Russian oil and refined product exports may decrease. Trump urged Turkey to stop buying Russian oil, and Russia extended its gasoline and diesel export bans until the end of the year. Short - term upward risks remain, but the medium - term surplus pressure means the bearish trend has not ended [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Multiple international factors have driven up oil prices and fuel oil prices. The continuous attacks on Russian refineries have led to a decline in the operating rate, and Russia extended its diesel and gasoline export bans until the end of the year, intensifying the impact on refined product supply. If export restrictions expand to non - gasoline products, the market's expectation of a reduction in Russian fuel exports will strengthen, directly supporting high - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is still under pressure from weak demand, increased overseas production, and sufficient domestic quotas [2] Asphalt - There is a pre - holiday rush for work in northern regions, and typhoon weather affects demand in southern regions. Refinery and social inventories have slightly increased. The national production plan for October is 350,000 tons more than the same period last year and 4,000 tons less than the previous month, with supply pressure weaker than expected, and the supply - demand balance continues [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Refinery self - use has squeezed external supply, resulting in a decline in commercial volume compared to last week. Typhoon weather in South China affects import arrivals, and the import volume in East China has increased but remains at a low level. Chemical demand is stable, and with the coming of the gas consumption peak season, overall consumption is expected to increase. The market has bottomed out and rebounded [2]

| Millio | > 國投期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月26日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数录得21.8万人为近两月以来新低,第二季度GDP大幅上修至增长3.8%创两 年新高。美联储多位官员讲话体观谨慎态度,对后续降息存在分歧。关注今晚POE通胀数据以及美国政府停 摆的解决进展。贵金属中期偏强趋势未改但短期波动加剧保持观望。 ★美国第二季度GDP被大幅上修至增长3.8%，创两年新高，前值为3.3%;美国至9月20日当周初请失业金人数 录得21.8万人，为2025年7月19日当周以来新低，前值由23.1万人修正为23.2万人。 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星 ...