Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (implies a relatively clear upward trend and an appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Paper Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (suggests a bearish bias but low operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆ (indicates a short - term balanced state with low operability) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall soft commodities market shows different trends. Some commodities like cotton and sugar have supply - demand and inventory factors affecting their prices, while others such as apples are influenced by new - season production estimates and seasonal demand. The market requires close monitoring of supply - demand changes, production data, and macro - trade factors [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose significantly. The cotton industry chain has stronger raw materials and weaker downstream. The price of pure cotton yarn followed the raw materials but with weak momentum. Inner - land spinning mills' operation rate decreased, while Xinjiang's remained high. As of the end of June, cotton commercial inventory was 282.98 million tons, down 62.89 million tons from the end of May. The inventory is expected to be tight. Macroeconomic factors such as Sino - US trade details need attention. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In the 25/26 season, Brazil's central - southern sugarcane yield per hectare is expected to be 72 tons, down 6.5% year - on - year. However, due to a high sugar - making ratio, the sugar production is expected to exceed 4000 million tons. In China, as of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 million tons, up 61.44 million tons year - on - year, with a sales rate of 79.51%, up 6.29 percentage points, and industrial inventory at 132.44 million tons, down 33.08 million tons. The US sugar trend is downward, so the upside of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. Expect short - term price fluctuations and stay on the sidelines [3]. Apple - Futures prices fluctuated weakly. Spot prices were stable. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and cold - storage apples' prices are weakening due to high inventory - holder selling and low demand. As of July 11, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 82.44 million tons, down 40.95% year - on - year. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western region was affected by cold snaps and winds, the impact on yield is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. With sufficient flower quantity, the production estimate is bearish. Maintain a bearish trading strategy [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU&MR rose slightly, and BR fluctuated. Domestic natural rubber prices were stable with a slight increase, and synthetic rubber prices were stable. The global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly. Some plants are restarting or reducing loads. The operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires rebounded. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 63.64 million tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rose to 1.28 million tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory rose to 2.36 million tons. With increasing supply and inventory and trade risks, stay on the sidelines [6]. Paper Pulp - The pulp futures price dropped slightly. Spot prices were stable. As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 217.9 million tons, down 3.4 million tons from the previous period, a 1.5% decrease. China's pulp imports in June were 303.1 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 1857.8 million tons, up 4.2% year - on - year. Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. The pulp valuation is low, and sentiment has been boosted. Temporarily stay on the sidelines or conduct short - term operations [7]. Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. In July, New Zealand's log quotes rose, supporting the futures price. Port daily outbound volume decreased significantly last week, showing off - season features. As of July 11, the national port log inventory was 322 million cubic meters, down 1 million cubic meters. The inventory is low, and the pressure is small. Although there are supply - side positives, the lack of demand in the off - season limits price rebounds. Stay on the sidelines [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★ [1] - Silicon Ferroalloy: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is affected by weak domestic demand and high exports, with the "anti - involution" influencing the market, and short - term fluctuations are expected. The follow - up focus is on terminal demand and policy changes [2]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate with finished products in the short term, and the room for continued rebound is limited due to the long - term supply - demand loosening trend [3]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by sufficient carbon element supply and high iron - making water in the off - season. Their prices mainly follow the steel trend, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact [4][5]. - Silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy prices are under pressure, mainly following the thread trend, with limited ability to rise [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline. Thread demand was weakly stable, production decreased slightly, and inventory slowly declined. Hot - rolled coil demand and production decreased, and inventory accumulated slightly. Iron - making water production declined slowly but remained high. Domestic demand was weak, and exports were relatively high. The market was affected by "anti - involution" with a cautious attitude, and short - term fluctuations were expected [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rose. Global shipments decreased slightly, domestic arrivals rebounded to a high level but were lower than last year. Port inventory decreased slightly. Terminal demand was weak in the off - season, but steel mills had profits and were reluctant to cut production. Iron - making water decreased slightly but remained high. The market was expected to fluctuate with finished products, and the rebound space was limited [3]. Coke - The coke futures market fluctuated downward. Coking price increases were expected to be fully implemented this week, but the increase was smaller than expected, and profits were meager. Daily production declined, inventory remained almost unchanged, and traders' purchasing willingness increased. Coke prices mainly followed the steel trend [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market fluctuated downward. The Sino - Mongolian border resumed customs clearance, coal mine production increased, and the spot auction market improved. Total inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. Coking coal prices mainly followed the steel trend [5]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market fluctuated downward. Due to previous production cuts, inventory decreased, but weekly production increased, and inventory began to rise. Manganese ore inventory increased in the long - term and was low in the short - term, and mines were more willing to hold prices. It was expected that prices would be under pressure [6]. Silicon Ferroalloy - The silicon ferroalloy futures market fluctuated downward. Iron - making water production decreased slightly but remained above 239. A large northern steel mill's July tender inquiry price was 5400 yuan/ton, and the tender quantity increased. Export demand was stable, and secondary demand was high. Supply decreased, market transactions were average, and inventory decreased, but production - end inventory began to accumulate. Prices were expected to be under pressure [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The crude oil market rating for this week is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly. In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened. The rating is adjusted to neutral oscillation [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow suit. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack is expected to continue its downward trend, while LU's unilateral movement follows crude oil [21] - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly. Supply increase resilience needs further observation. Demand is weak but has recovery expectations. The price follows crude oil, but the upward drive is limited before demand improves [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists. Overseas prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the market is oscillating weakly [23] Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The impact of tariffs is emerging. The Fed is likely to maintain its current policy. Suggestions for trading include holding short positions or using option strategies [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. There is a negative feedback in the spot market during the off - season. There is short - term callback pressure [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, but the market is in an oversupply state. The upside is limited, and the futures are unlikely to fall sharply [5] - **Zinc**: Inventory is rising, indicating a supply - surplus and demand - weak situation. The market continues the idea of shorting on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The external market's inventory accumulation drags down the price. The domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, but there is a risk of following the external market down [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fell sharply. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season. There is still room for a rebound in Shanghai nickel, waiting for a better short - selling position [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin opened lower and oscillated. The inventory in London is falling. The domestic output is expected to improve marginally. The market continues the short - allocation direction [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is oscillating and rebounding. The inventory is rising. The upside is limited, and short positions can be gradually arranged [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices are rising. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices are rebounding. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term trend follows steel products, and the upward space is limited [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices follow steel products and may continue to rise in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. They follow the trend of rebar, with limited upward momentum [18][19] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices continued to fall. Demand is weak, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" concept. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [14] - **Glass**: The market is affected by the real - estate situation. The short - term follows the macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases require supply contraction [33] Chemicals - **Urea**: Supply is sufficient, and agricultural demand is weakening. Pay attention to export - quota policies [24] - **Methanol**: The main contract fluctuates narrowly. Inventory is rising, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The cost support is weakening. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3, and a negative monthly - spread is expected in Q4 [26] - **Styrene**: The cost - end is oscillating, and the supply is sufficient while demand is weak [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The futures are oscillating weakly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are weakening, and caustic - soda prices are oscillating strongly [29] - **PX & PTA**: Prices are oscillating. Pay attention to the repair of PTA's processing margin [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling. The short - term is bullish, with the risk of falling oil prices [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber is bullish, while bottle - chip's processing - margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is neutral - bearish. The domestic inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The market is oscillating [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is in an adjustment state. The long - term idea is to go long on dips [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The external market is in a consolidation phase. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Pay attention to weather and policies in the short term [39] - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic market is oscillating [40] - **Live Pig**: The supply is abundant in the medium term, and the price has downward pressure [41] - **Egg**: The spot price is rebounding seasonally. The futures' upside is limited, and the long - term cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising due to weather concerns. The domestic market is affected by demand. The inventory is expected to be tight [43] - **Sugar**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [44] - **Apple**: The new - season apple price is increasing. The market is bearish on the production estimate [45] - **Timber**: The supply has some positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak [46] - **Pulp**: The price is rising slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe or trade short - term [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market shows a divergence. The short - term risk preference is oscillating slightly strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Prices are rising. The bond market should pay attention to the risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: Spot prices are stable. The 08 contract will converge with the spot, while the 10 - contract's rise is due to multiple factors. It is not recommended to chase the rise [20]

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月16日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 標｜油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆维持反弹势头，本周东北地区光温充足，大部埔情适宜,利于大豆分枝开花作物总体长势良好。预计 未来10天，东北地区累计降水量较常年同期偏多3～6成，要防范短时清涝风险。政策方面本周四国产大豆举行 竞价采购交易,关注实际的成交表现,本周一的竞价采购成 ...

| 《八》 国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月16日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | な☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 5月以来油价自底部回升持续受到旺季采购预期支撑，但近期原油现货升贴水及月差均未进一步走强,或显示强 现实因素对油价的上行驱动减弱，7月贸易战的利空风险大于地缘因素的利多风险，油价或转为震荡承压；8月 为俄乌、伊核博弈的关键窗口期,欧洲柴油矛盾若仍无法消退,市场仍有再度上行的可能。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly within the range. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and port inventories have accumulated rapidly. Some domestic enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [2] Urea - The urea futures market is oscillating strongly. Supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Upstream inventories are shifting to downstream and ports. The market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations with the possible release of a new export quota [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures closed down slightly, showing a weak trend. For polyethylene, the reduction of device maintenance increases pressure, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, high - level device maintenance provides some support, but weak demand still suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil is oscillating. The spot price of pure benzene in East China has slightly declined, while the forward price has risen slightly. There is still supply pressure, with a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - to - late third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread and short at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures are weakly sorted. The开工 load is at a high level, and port inventories are accumulating. Market supply is sufficient, while downstream demand is mainly based on digesting existing raw materials, and spot trading is poor [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate narrowly. PX supply - demand has improved, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has an upward repair drive due to low processing margins. For ethylene glycol, short - term long - position allocation is recommended if large domestic devices implement maintenance. Short fiber shows some demand resilience and can be treated bullishly, while bottle chip orders are weakening [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is running weakly. New device production increases supply, and downstream demand is weak, with inventory accumulation. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, with poor high - price sales and general non - aluminum downstream demand [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass fluctuates narrowly. Industry profits have slightly increased, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is oscillating weakly, with inventory accumulation and high - level production. The photovoltaic industry's planned production cuts may affect the market [10]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core View - Overnight, the US announced that the June CPI rebounded to 2.7%, in line with expectations, but the annual and monthly rates of core CPI were slightly lower than expected. After the data release, precious metals declined. The market believes the data is insufficient to change the Fed's wait - and - see stance. With room for negotiation on US tariff policies before the deadline, risk sentiment may fluctuate, and precious metals will mainly trade in a range. Attention should be paid to the US PPI data tonight [1] Industry - related Summaries Tariff - US Treasury Secretary signaled that there's no need to worry about the deadline for suspending additional tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiation "is in good shape" [2] - EU Commission Vice - President will talk with the US Trade Representative [2] - Trump reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods exported to the US, while US exports to Indonesia will enjoy duty - free and non - tariff barrier - free treatment. If goods are transshipped from Indonesia, tariffs will be combined with those of the country of origin [2] - US Commerce Secretary said the US doesn't levy tariffs on raw steel but only on finished steel [2] - Indian central bank governor is hopeful for a good trade agreement [2] Inflation - The US June overall CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations; the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, also in line with expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, falling short of the expected 3% but up slightly from last month's 2.8%. The monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the market - expected 0.3% [2] - Interest rate futures show that the possibility of a Fed rate cut this month is very small, but the possibility of a 25 - basis - point cut in September is high [2] - The "Fed whisperer" said the CPI report won't change the Fed's policy direction [2] - Trump said consumer prices are low and the Fed should immediately cut the federal funds rate by 3 percentage points [2] - Fed's Collins expects the core inflation rate to remain at about 3% by the end of the year, and the Fed should be actively patient [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, representing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, denoting a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, signifying a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report provides daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including market trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and trading strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper reduced positions significantly, with the price fluctuating narrowly around 78,000 yuan. The spot copper price was 78,060 yuan. After the contract change, the premium in Shanghai was 95 yuan and 60 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference was 780 yuan [2] - Overnight, the US CPI rose year - on - year, and the impact of tariffs was gradually emerging. The Fed was likely to "stand still" at the end of the month. Traders were advised to hold short positions or try to sell call options with an exercise price of 80,000 yuan and buy put options with an exercise price of 76,000 yuan on the 2508 contract [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot premium of 90 yuan in East China. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased by over 30,000 tons on Monday. The price broke the upward trend line, and there was short - term callback pressure [3] - Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation was stable at 19,500 yuan, with weak demand. The scrap aluminum market had tight supply, and the industry had negative profits but some resilience [3] - The upward trend of alumina spot prices eased. The domestic operating capacity of alumina returned to a historical high, but the warehouse receipt inventory on the SHFE was only over 20,000 tons, and the futures were unlikely to fall deeply [3] Zinc - Both domestic and overseas markets saw inventory accumulation, and the demand side had continuous negative feedback. The zinc price was weak, and the weighted position of Shanghai zinc decreased to 231,600 lots, with a precipitation of 4.59 billion yuan in funds. The term structure flattened [4] - The expectation of increasing supply and weak demand remained unchanged. The key domestic meeting did not bring surprises, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds was continued [4] Aluminum - Both domestic and overseas markets saw inventory accumulation. LME aluminum broke below the 2000 - dollar mark, dragging down the domestic market. Technically, there was still room for downward adjustment [6] - The aluminum price was weak, and downstream buyers were waiting and watching. The supply difference between northern and southern electrolytic lead smelters still existed, and recycled lead holders were reluctant to sell. The refined - scrap price difference remained flat [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless steel market was in the traditional off - season, with weak spot trading mainly relying on low - price goods from traders [7] - The inventory of nickel iron increased to 37,000 tons, the inventory of refined nickel increased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the inventory of stainless steel increased by 12,000 tons to 991,000 tons. Technically, Shanghai nickel still had room to rebound, and traders were advised to wait for a better short - selling position [7] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with a positive line. The spot tin price was reduced by 1000 yuan to 263,600 yuan, with a premium of 230 yuan over the 2508 contract [8] - Indonesia's refined tin exports in June decreased to 4465 tons month - on - month. The strategy of short - selling was continued [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded with active trading and high positions. The spot trading activity was low, and downstream buyers were not willing to stock up [9] - The total market inventory reached a recent high of 141,000 tons, and traders continued to replenish stocks by 2430 tons to 41,000 tons. The price of Australian ore was 678 dollars. Short positions could be gradually established [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined slightly. The spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon was 8800 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The downstream polysilicon production in July increased month - on - month, and the operating rate of silicone monomer plants continued to rise [10] - The supply side had some constraints, and the fundamentals showed marginal improvement. The price was expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, and the change of warehouse receipts should be monitored [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded close to 43,000 yuan/ton. The spot price of N - type re -投料 was 45,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The downstream price increase began to transmit costs [11] - The current futures price was at a discount to the spot price, and the number of warehouse receipts remained stable. The short - term trend was expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - As of the week ending July 13, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the previous week was 66%, and the same period last year was 68%. The flowering rate was 32%, and the pod-setting rate was 15%. The good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans increased significantly. The good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, 73% the previous week, and 68% the same period last year. The silking rate was 18%, and the dough stage rate was 7%. US corn continued to grow well. In the next two weeks, generally, the rainfall in the US soybean/corn producing areas will be higher than normal, and the temperature will be slightly lower than normal, which is conducive to crop growth. It has entered the weather trading time window, and there is still some room for future price increases, but the US weather has not changed severely for the time being, and the good-to-excellent rates of US soybeans and corn are at relatively high levels, so investors need to continue to observe and wait [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Growth Indicators**: The good-to-excellent rate was 70% (expected 67%, previous week 66%, last year 68%); the flowering rate was 32%; the pod-setting rate was 15%. The sowing rate was 97%, the emergence rate was 96% [1] - **Corn Growth Indicators**: The good-to-excellent rate was 74% (in line with expectations, previous week 73%, last year 68%); the silking rate was 18%; the dough stage rate was 7%. The sowing rate was 98%, the emergence rate was 98% [1] - **Weather Impact**: In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the US soybean and corn producing areas will be higher than normal, and the temperature will be slightly lower than normal, which is beneficial for crop growth [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bearish on the cotton industry [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The July report is bearish as global cotton production and ending stocks have been revised upwards, and the supply in the new season remains relatively loose, with international cotton prices expected to fluctuate at low levels [1][2] - The cotton in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries is still in the growing stage, and weather conditions should continue to be monitored [1][2] - Although there are some positive signals in China-US trade negotiations, the specific situation remains to be observed, and China-US relations have a significant impact on the demand for US cotton in the new season [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: Global cotton production in the 25/26 season has been revised upwards by 311,000 tons month-on-month, with China's production up 218,000 tons to 6.75 million tons and still having room for further increase, and US production up 131,000 tons due to increased planting and harvest areas and favorable weather [1] - **Consumption**: Global cotton consumption in the 25/26 season has been revised upwards by 80,000 tons month-on-month, with China's consumption unchanged and Pakistan's up 65,000 tons. Overall consumption is stable, but trade conflicts are numerous, and China-US relations significantly affect US cotton demand [1] - **Imports and Exports**: Global cotton imports in the 25/26 season have decreased by 30,000 tons month-on-month, with Pakistan's imports up 131,000 tons and China's down 152,000 tons to 1.263 million tons. Global exports have decreased by 21,000 tons, with no adjustments to major exporters [1] - **Ending Stocks**: Global ending stocks in the 25/26 season have increased by 114,000 tons month-on-month, with the US up 66,000 tons, Pakistan up 43,000 tons, and both China and India up 11,000 tons [2] Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton production is 25.783 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 311,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 323,000 tons [3] - **Consumption**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton consumption is 25.718 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 80,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 309,000 tons [3] - **Imports**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton imports are 9.728 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 450,000 tons [3] - **Exports**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton exports are 9.73 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 21,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 369,000 tons [3] - **Ending Stocks**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global ending stocks are 16.721 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 114,000 tons [3]