gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 隔夜国际油价震荡，布伦特09合约跌0.43%。周三宏观与地缘方面的利多支撑未能延续，6月非农就 业的超预期表现弱化美联储降息预期,在美越贸易协议之后,临近7月9日豁免到期大限美国与其他 大多数国家的贸易协议悬而未决；伊核争端也有重回谈判与制裁博弈模式的迹象，中东军事冲突风 险短期可控。原油供需面宽松主题延续,上周全球石油库存进一步累增,旺季因素亦难扭转 OPEC+快速增产预期之下的累库趋势。原油供需指引仍偏负面,关注宏观及地缘因素摇摆风险。 (责金属) 隔夜美国公布6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人好于普遍预期，失业率下降0.1个百分点至 4.1%、就业市场保持韧性令美联储9月降息预期有所降温，金价有所回落。短期贵金属延续震荡， 关注美国关税重要节点政策变动对市场情绪的影响。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜高位震荡收跌，6月非农就业及失业率好于预期，调降7月联储降息概率，美元指数走强。 国内现铜昨报80980元,注意2507合约减仓节奏。技术上,周内沪铜涨势测试8.1万。中长期趋势交 易仍建议关注高位空配。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝高位震荡。昨日各地区现货转向 ...

| Million | > 國技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月03日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | なな☆ | PX | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | 女女女 | 乙二醇 | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | なな女 | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 纯碱 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 主流区域降水过后尿素下游采购较为集中,叠加日产小幅下降,周期内生产企业 ...

Group 1: Global Propylene Supply Pattern - The global propylene production is concentrated in Northeast Asia, North America, and Western Europe. Northeast Asia is the largest production region, with a 48.1% share of the world's total capacity in 2024, and China accounts for 39.4%. North America and Northeast Asia together account for 65.6% of the global capacity. Western Europe has a 9% share, and has been a net importer since 2021. The Middle East and Southeast Asia also have propylene production, with shares of 7.4% and 6.5% respectively [1]. - The global propylene production capacity had a compound growth rate of 5.9% from 2020 - 2024. Over 14 million tons/year of new capacity is planned from 2025 - 2027, and the capacity is expected to reach 196 million tons by 2030, with major increments in Northeast Asia, North America, and Southeast Asia [1]. Group 2: Global Major Propylene Producers Head - enterprises - Sinopec has a propylene capacity of about 13 million tons/year, accounting for 7.6% of the global total, ranking first globally. It uses mainly naphtha cracking (60%) and is accelerating the layout of PDH. Over 2 million tons/year of new PDH capacity was added in 2024. More than 50% of its propylene is consumed domestically, and it exports through Southeast Asia [4]. - PetroChina has a total propylene capacity of about 6.76 million tons/year as of 2024, accounting for 4.0% of the global total, ranking second. About 85% of its capacity comes from naphtha cracking. Its future competitiveness depends on high - end product R & D, PDH technology penetration, and low - carbon transformation [4]. - LyondellBasell has a capacity of about 5 million tons/year, ranking third globally. It has production bases in North America, Rotterdam in Europe, and Singapore in Asia. It is the world's largest polypropylene producer, and its propylene is mainly used for high - end derivatives with 15% - 20% higher added value [5]. - Saudi Aramco has a capacity of about 4.8 million tons/year, ranking fourth. It has a core device in the Jubail Petrochemical Park. It exports products, accounting for 12% of the global propylene exports, and plans to expand the Zhejiang Petrochemical project with Rongsheng Petrochemical in 2026, adding 1 million tons/year of propylene capacity [5]. Regional leaders - INEOS has a capacity of about 3.8 million tons/year, being the largest propylene producer in Europe. It uses mainly steam cracking (70%) and supplies the European automotive and packaging industries, and also radiates the North American market [6]. - BASF has a capacity of about 3 million tons/year, ranking fifth globally. It投产 the first bio - based propylene plant in Europe in 2024, aiming for a 15% bio - based raw material share by 2030 [6]. - ExxonMobil has a capacity of about 2.8 million tons/year, ranking sixth globally, with production bases in the US, Singapore, and China [6]. Emerging Asian forces - Zhongjing Petrochemical has a capacity of 2.8 million tons/year, being the world's largest single - plant propylene producer. It uses all PDH processes and targets over 30% market share in the domestic PP powder market and exports to Vietnam and Indonesia [8]. - Wanhua Chemical has a capacity of about 1.8 million tons/year, ranking among the top ten globally. Its propylene is mainly used for high - end products such as POE and MDI [8]. Group 3: China's Propylene Capacity Development Structural over - supply and slowing growth - China's propylene capacity had a compound growth rate of 14.34% from 2020 - 2024, adding 29.12 million tons. From 2025 - 2030, the planned new capacity is 22.15 million tons/year, with a compound growth rate of 5.29%, showing a significant slowdown [9]. Increasing industry concentration - In 2024, there were 189 propylene producers in China, with 13 enterprises having an annual capacity of over 1 million tons, accounting for 6.88%. The CR10 enterprise capacity accounted for 22.77%. In the next 5 years, the industry will continue to develop in a diversified, integrated, and large - scale manner [11]. Process route competition and regional development - China has diverse propylene production processes, including naphtha cracking, propane dehydrogenation (PDH), methanol - to - olefins, and catalytic cracking. PDH has developed rapidly and impacted the market share of naphtha cracking. PDH capacity is mainly distributed in coastal areas [13]. - From 2020 - 2024, East China's propylene capacity increased by 8.56 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 14%. Shandong's capacity increased by 7.81 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 21% [15]. Declining import dependence and commodification rate - China's propylene import dependence has declined from 14.1% in 2014 to 3.3% in 2024 and is expected to further decrease. The commodification rate is also expected to decline to 13.3% in 2025, with the commodity volume expected to drop to 7.9 million tons [17].

| V V & SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月03日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 | | | 【焦煤】 日内价格上涨。政策端或对超产管控加强，对产量或有一定下降影响。 炼焦煤矿产量在安全生产月后，产量逐渐回升。期现贸 易需求有明显增加，现货竞拍成交市场有所好转，成交价格上涨，终端库存继续下降。炼焦煤总库存环比下降，产端库存持续 下降，短期内仍将持续去库。蒙煤价格逐渐小幅上涨，澳煤价格大 ...

| 《八》 国资期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月03日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 油价受利好消息领涨油品期货,今日燃油系期货均小幅收涨。高硫方面,船加注及深加工需求低迷,中东、北 非夏季发电对高疏燃油需求提振因高硫裂解估值偏高而大打折扣，FU震荡偏弱，在油价短期受利好消息提振后 FU裂解走弱：此前焦化利润走强，低硫燃料油固分流效应短期供应压力有限,然需求方面亦缺乏驱动,LU走势 震荡为主。 【沥青】 1-7月国内炼厂沥青累计产量同比预计增长7%。年初以来54家样 ...

| | | | 国投期货 Millio | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月03日 | | 棉花, | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★★★ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | 女女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货交投大多冷清：基差总体持稳，纯棉纱成交依旧偏清淡，下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,纯 棉纱纺企库存继续累积，诚停产增多。截至6月15号，棉花商业库存为312.69万吨，较5月底减少33.18万吨，消化仍然良好，棉 花库存仍存偏紧预期。宏观上，美国和越南达成贸易协议，美国将对进口越南商品征收20% ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月03日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | な女女 | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ななな | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ななな | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 错 | な女女 | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | なな女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜高位震荡,晚间美国独立日部分市场提前休市,隔夜美国ADP私人就业人数意外下降,关注非农数据。 国内现铜80980元，平 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong "counter - attack" of coking coal futures prices is related to supply - side low - valuation - matching production cuts, 6 - 7 month production and import seasonality, high - level iron - water production, and market expectation revisions. The futures price has changed from long - term discount to premium. Given the current small premium and the upcoming resumption of domestic coking coal mines, excessive bullish expectations for coking coal futures prices are not advisable. The valuation decline space caused by the previous concentrated short - view on coking coal futures prices will be significantly revised upwards [12][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Mongolian coal suspends customs clearance due to holidays, and the effect of domestic coal production cuts emerges - Recently, the trading of Mongolian coal has improved significantly due to the premium opportunity provided by the futures price. During the Naadam Festival from July 11th to July 15th, the three major Mongolian ports were closed for 5 days, leading to an expected short - term supply tightening. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the port increased from 705 yuan/ton in the second half of the month to 740 - 750 yuan/ton [1] - Since May, domestic coking coal mines have successively cut production. State - owned large mines have poor sales and some mines are forced to cut production due to full storage; small mines have many accidents and the number of mines under suspension and rectification has increased since June; some private mines in certain regions have cut or even stopped production due to poor sales and production losses [1] - As production cuts continue and expand, the inventory of coking coal in some invisible links has been significantly digested, and the visible carbon element inventory has shown a significant decline since mid - June [3] 2. The sentiment of futures - spot trading surges, bringing vitality to spot trading - The reversal of futures price sentiment has provided space for futures - spot arbitrage and selling hedging, leading to a surge in futures - spot trading sentiment, which has driven the spot market of coking coal. The rate of unsuccessful auctions in the spot market has rapidly declined, and the prices of some coal types have rebounded significantly. For example, the price of lean coking coal in Shanxi has increased from 930 yuan/ton to 970 yuan/ton, and the coking coal warehouse - receipt prices in Shanxi (except Mongolian coal) have also risen to 875 - 920 yuan/ton [5] - The price of Australian imported low - sulfur main coking coal converted into warehouse - receipt price is close to the futures price, and the trading of imported coal at ports has become more active. On the 2nd, the price index of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal rose by 9.7 to 196.85. The significant improvement in coking coal spot liquidity, combined with the small - scale replenishment of downstream coking plants and steel mills, will promote coal mine sales and drive up prices [7][9] 3. High - level iron - water production is maintained during the off - season, and the "anti - involution" expectation protects steel - making profits - Thanks to the relatively weak prices of coke and iron ore and the continuous support of export resilience, the current steel prices and steel - making profit levels are not bad. During the off - season of construction demand, iron - water production has not significantly decreased and remains at a high level of 242,000 tons per day. Although there are expectations of phased production restrictions in Tangshan, the national iron - water production is expected to remain at a relatively high level due to profit incentives [10] - The widespread discussion of "anti - involution" has led to a good expectation of future steel - making profits in the market. In the past, during the expectation stage of production restrictions or flat - control, both steel prices and raw material prices were driven upwards. The "anti - involution" expectation has also led to a re - discussion of the valuation repair of bulk commodities with over - capacity and valuations close to cost support [12]

| Millio | ■控期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月03日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属偏强震荡。本周鲍威尔讲话重申在经济依然稳健的情况下美联储选择保持耐心,下一步行动将完 全取决于数据表现。昨晚美国ADP就业人数减少3.3万人录得2023年3月以来最大降幅，降息预期升温，市场 基本完全定价美联储将于9月完成降息，聚焦非农数据对就业的验证，因美国独立纪念日该数据将于今晚公 布。 ★特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南市场将对美国全面开放，越南将向美国支付20%的关税，适用于任 何进入美国领土的商品，且对转运货物征收40%的关税;越南国家媒体称美国将大幅削减多种越南产品的关 税。 ★当地时间7月3日，西门子公司称，美国商务部已通知全球三大芯片设计软件供应 ...

期市有风险，投资需谨慎 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 0 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 1. | 胶版印刷纸期货主要特征 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2. | 胶版印刷纸期货及期权合约参数（征求意见稿） | 2 | | | 2.1. 上海期货交易所胶版印刷纸期货合约（征求意见稿） ·· | 2 | | | 2.2. 上海期货交易所胶版印刷纸期货期权合约（征求意见稿） | 6 | | 3. | 上海期货交易所胶版印刷纸期货业务细则（征求意见稿） | 7 | | | . 3.1.总则 | | | | ・・・・・・・・ 7 3.2. 交易业务 | | | | 3.3. 交割业务 ····· 8 | | | | 331 -- 船却定 · ····· 8 | | | | 3.3.2 令库交割・・・・・・・・・・・・・ | 10 | | | ３３３ ■ 年交割 ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・ | 11 | | | 3 4 风险管理 · | 14 | | | 3.5. 附则 ···· 16 | | 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 1 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险 ...