| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年12月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | な女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。淡季螺纹表需下滑，产量继续小幅回升，库存延续去化态势。热卷需求回暖，产量小幅回升，去库有所加 快，压力仍有待缓解。供应压力逐步缓解，钢厂利润边际改善，高炉城产态势放缓，铁水有所企稳，关注唐山等地环保限产持 续性。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依 ...

| | | 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 农产品日报 | VY V SDIC FUIURES | | 2025年12月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | なな☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | なな☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 棕櫚油 | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | な☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | な☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约表现偏强,上周政策端竞价拍卖成交较好,并且溢价成交,给豆一带来支撑。现货方面大豆 收购价格表现为上调。进口大豆方面南美新季大豆目前仍然是维持丰产预期， ...

| 《八 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月29日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所回落，棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大，但商业库存同比偏低，销售进度偏快，也 给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月25号，累计加工皮棉669.7万吨，同比增加75.8万吨，较过 去四年均值增加141.4万吨。国内商业库存同比偏低，截至12月15号，全国棉花商业库存为534.9万吨，同比减少1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (short - term trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable) [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] Report's Core Views - The geopolitical conflict has not fundamentally changed the pattern of oversupply in the energy market, and most energy products are expected to be under pressure [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - After the US - Ukraine talks, the geopolitical premium has a pulsed impact on oil prices, but the long - term concern about oversupply persists. The US Department of Energy predicts that in 2026, the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil will be $55/barrel and $51/barrel respectively, and global inventories may increase by over 2 million barrels per day [1] Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors are short - term fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil has potential demand support, but high inventory pressure is significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to increased supply and lack of strong demand [2] Asphalt - Since December, the weekly shipment volume has been at a low level in the past four years. The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose, and it will return to a price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market as a whole rose 4% last week, with precious metals leading the way with a 9.69% increase. The short - term commodity market may run stably due to the loose dollar liquidity [2]. - The Fed's loose outlook and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The short - term market fluctuates greatly as various varieties hit new highs [2]. - The non - ferrous sector may oscillate strongly in the short term due to the weak dollar and the support from the expected contraction of mine supply [3]. - The black sector may oscillate as the demand and supply situation is complex, with factors such as changes in steel mill production and raw material supply [3]. - Oil prices continue to be under pressure due to the long - term loose supply - demand background, despite the geopolitical tension in Venezuela [3]. - The polyester chemical varieties may be affected by supply and demand changes, and attention should be paid to the downstream polyester load [4]. - The short - term trend of agricultural products and oils and fats is expected to be oscillatory, influenced by factors such as weather and export expectations [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The overall commodity market rose 4% last week, with precious metals up 9.69%, non - ferrous metals up 4.97%, energy and chemicals up 2.98%, agricultural products up 2.53%, and black metals up 0.08%. Silver, PTA, and nickel were the top gainers, while tin, coke, and rebar were the top losers [2][6]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased, with only the black and coal - chemical related varieties showing a decline in volatility. The overall market scale increased, but only the precious metal and non - ferrous sectors had net inflows, with most funds concentrated in silver [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the Fed's loose policy and geopolitical risks, the shortage of spot makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds. The gold - silver ratio has fallen below the average. Exchange restrictions and risk warnings have led to large short - term market fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The weak dollar and better - than - expected GDP growth in the US provide a neutral - warm macro environment. Although the inventory is increasing and the spot premium is weakening, the expected contraction of mine supply supports the price, and the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The demand for rebar decreased, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The slowdown of blast furnace production cuts and the stable molten iron output need attention to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions. The supply of raw materials is relatively sufficient, and the sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The geopolitical tension in Venezuela increases the risk premium of crude oil, but the impact on global supply is limited. The US shale oil production remains high, and oil prices are under pressure due to the long - term loose supply - demand situation [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: Polyester varieties may face supply pressure from device restarts, but the strong expectation remains, and attention should be paid to the downstream polyester load [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The improving weather in South America and the expected transition of La Nina to ENSO neutral increase the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. The fundamentals of palm oil are less negative, and the short - term trend of oils and fats may be oscillatory [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns last week, with the total scale of gold ETFs increasing by 0.77% and the total trading volume increasing by 29.04%. The total scale of commodity ETFs increased by 0.86% and the trading volume increased by 23.22% [36]. - Among them, the returns of different gold ETFs ranged from 3.21% to 3.60%, and the return of the silver fund was 17.43%, while the returns of energy - chemical, bean - meal, and non - ferrous metal ETFs were 4.25%, 1.69%, and 4.34% respectively [36][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, indicating a bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The market has quickly realized the bullish targets for copper in 2026 set by most overseas institutions. It is recommended to hold an option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [2]. - The aluminum market is mainly driven by the rise of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. However, the fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the upside space is cautiously viewed. The price of cast aluminum alloy has a weaker seasonal performance compared to previous years [3]. - The supply pressure of zinc has weakened, but the consumption is in the off - season. The Shanghai zinc lacks directional drive and fluctuates around 23,000 yuan. The market is not pessimistic about zinc consumption in January 2026 [4]. - The lead price is under pressure at around 17,500 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom within the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5]. - The nickel market is dominated by policy disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [6]. - The tin market has high volatility. It is recommended to sell call options at 350,000 yuan and observe the correction degree [7]. - The lithium carbonate price is short - term bearish as it is above 120,000 yuan and deviates from the fundamentals [8]. - The demand for industrial silicon is still under pressure, but the decline has narrowed. The futures market may remain firm but with limited upside space [9]. - The polysilicon market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The subsequent market is likely to maintain a high - level shock pattern [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The London copper jumped to a maximum of $12,900. The domestic spot discount has widened, and the social inventory has increased. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. The spot discount has widened, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased. The fundamentals of the aluminum market are weak. The price of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the waste aluminum is still in short supply. The alumina market is in a state of over - supply, and the price decline has slowed down [3]. Zinc - The TC has continued to decline, and the smelter production cut has continued. The social inventory has decreased, and the import is not favorable. The Shanghai zinc lacks directional drive and fluctuates around 23,000 yuan [4]. Lead - The lead inventory is low, supporting the price increase. However, the battery enterprises have suspended spot procurement, and the lead price is under pressure at around 17,500 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel has corrected, and the market trading is active. The nickel ore quota in 2026 has been significantly reduced, and the market is dominated by policy disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [6]. Tin - The Shanghai tin has strong short - term fluctuations between 330,000 - 350,000 yuan. The high price suppresses consumption, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to sell call options at 350,000 yuan [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price has reached the daily limit down. The price is high, and the trading enthusiasm is limited. The futures price is strong but deviates from the fundamentals, and it is short - term bearish [8]. Industrial Silicon - The demand for industrial silicon is still under pressure, but the decline has narrowed. The futures market is driven by the expected production cut in the northern region. The inventory is still accumulating slightly, and the upside space is limited [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has positive expectations, but the downstream cost increase limits the price increase. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the subsequent market is likely to maintain a high - level shock pattern [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Polypropylene: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Plastic: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Pure Benzene: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Styrene: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - PX: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - PTA: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Moderate bearish trend, less operable [1] - Short Fiber: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Bottle Chip: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Methanol: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Urea: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - PVC: Strong bearish trend [1] - Caustic Soda: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Soda Ash: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Glass: Moderate bearish trend, less operable [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the chemical market is relatively loose, and the market is affected by factors such as cost, demand, and inventory [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different market trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to make decisions based on specific product analysis [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main futures contracts of olefins fluctuated within the day. The supply is relatively loose, and the willingness of producers to stabilize the market is prominent [2] - The main futures contracts of plastics and polypropylene fluctuated narrowly. The supply of polyethylene remains high, and the demand of downstream industries is decreasing. The demand for polypropylene is in the off - season, and the short - term demand release is limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene fluctuated narrowly within the day. The port inventory is rising, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. Consider long - short spreads on the long - term [3] - The main futures contract of styrene continued to rise within the day. The market sentiment is bullish, and the supply - demand fundamentals are improving [3] Polyester - PX price is under pressure due to high valuation and weak downstream demand. PTA follows the decline. PX may adjust in the short term and maintain a strong expectation in the medium term [5] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol is reduced, and the port inventory is rising. The market is weak in the short term but may improve in the second quarter. It is under long - term pressure [5] - Short fiber inventory is low, but it is in the off - season. The long - term supply - demand pattern is good. Bottle chip demand is weakening, and it is driven by cost [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market is bullish. The port inventory increased last week but may enter the destocking cycle in the medium term. Pay attention to the long - short spreads [6] - The urea market is firm. The supply is tightening, but it may increase this week. The short - term market may decline slightly [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC fluctuated within the day. The supply is high, the demand is low, and it may operate in the low - level range [7] - Caustic soda declined within the day. The profit is compressed, the supply pressure is high, and the upward space is limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash declined within the day. The supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. Consider the long - glass short - soda ash strategy [8] - Glass fluctuated within the day. The inventory pressure is large, the demand is insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Platinum: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Palladium: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core View of the Report - Precious metals fluctuated sharply today; recent US data favors the continuation of interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions have emerged between Israel and Iran, as well as the US and Venezuela [1] - After gold broke through the previous high and set a new all - time high last Monday, the precious metals' upward trend was strengthened, silver, platinum, and palladium entered a rapid rally phase, and the gold - silver ratio fell below 60 [1] - There is no obvious news driving the market, and capital sentiment dominates the fluctuations. Domestic and foreign exchanges have successively adjusted margins and trading limits. The short - term market volatility is extremely high, so participation should be cautious, and a large pullback caused by capital withdrawal should be guarded against [1] - After palladium's listing, the increase was too large, and it is far from the delivery time. The short - term speculative atmosphere in the market is strong, and capital sentiment dominates, causing greater fluctuations in the platinum and palladium trading floors [2] - In terms of arbitrage, the fundamentals of platinum are stronger than those of palladium, and the platinum - palladium price difference has widened to 160 yuan/gram. There is a possibility that the price difference between the two will widen further [2] - The long - term trend shows that the fundamentals of platinum continue to be in short supply, and the medium - term upward logic has not been broken. There is a possibility that long - position funds will cover their positions on dips. Recently, the implied volatility (IV) has increased, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling put options [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Geopolitical News - As US President Trump is about to meet with Israeli Prime Minister in Washington, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran is in an unprecedented all - out war with the US, Europe, and Israel. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are scheduled to meet on Monday, with the Iranian nuclear issue as the core topic. Pezeshkian warned that the Iranian military is fully prepared and will counter any new aggression [2] - In the US - Ukraine presidential meeting, Zelensky said that the US - Ukraine security guarantee has been 100% agreed, while Trump said it has reached 95%. Trump talked with Putin before meeting Zelensky. Trump described the current progress as "very close to reaching an agreement", but Russia and Ukraine have not reached an agreement on key territorial issues; a three - party meeting is not ruled out [3] - US President Trump said that the US military carried out a secret strike on a factory in Venezuela on the night of the 24th, and claimed that this move reduced drug trading volume by 97%. Venezuela has not responded yet [3] Precious Metals Market Analysis - The platinum - palladium price difference has widened to 160 yuan/gram, and there is a possibility of further widening. The platinum's internal - external price difference once exceeded 100 yuan/gram last Friday, and the cross - market reverse arbitrage is theoretically feasible, which has effectively stimulated the entry of cross - market arbitrage funds, and the internal - external price difference has quickly converged [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View No relevant information provided. Summary of Each ETF and Index 50ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 3.107 to 3.12, and daily price changes from -0.35% to 0.42%. The current IV of the month was between 11.93% and 12.86%, and the IV of the next month was between 13.04% and 13.99% [1]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 100.03 today [2]. Shanghai 300ETF - Price and volatility data from December 24 - 26, 2025, with price ranging from 4.757 to 4.784, and daily price changes from 0.19% to 0.57%. The current IV of the month was between 13.79% and 14.42%, and the IV of the next month was between 15.16% and 16.22% [3]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 101.35 today [5]. Shenzhen 300ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 4.838 to 4.860, and daily price changes from -0.45% to 0.41%. The current IV of the month was between 14.10% and 14.73%, and the IV of the next month was between 15.17% and 16.07% [6]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 107.43 four days ago, and 98.39 today [10]. Shanghai CSI 500ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 7.534 to 7.580, and daily price changes from 0.19% to 2.17%. The current IV of the month was between 17.60% and 18.88%, and the IV of the next month was between 18.05% and 19.38% [12]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 101.22 today [15]. Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 2.974 to 2.991, and daily price changes from -0.40% to 0.81%. The current IV of the month was between 17.37% and 18.81%, and the IV of the next month was between 17.74% and 19.77% [19]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 100.96 today [24]. ChiNext ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 3.205 to 3.226, and daily price changes from -0.65% to 0.31%. The current IV of the month was between 24.85% and 26.03%, and the IV of the next month was between 25.92% and 27.20% [25]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 95.68 today [31]. Shenzhen 100ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 3.470 to 3.485, and daily price changes from -0.43% to 0.29%. The current IV of the month was between 18.09% and 19.01%, and the IV of the next month was between 20.09% and 20.49% [35]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 101.71 today [38]. Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 1.417 to 1.422, and daily price changes from -0.21% to -0.07%. The current IV of the month was between 25.30% and 26.36%, and the IV of the next month was between 26.23% and 28.23% [44]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 95.11 today [46]. STAR 50ETF - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 1.373 to 1.376, and daily price changes from -0.15% to -0.07%. The current IV of the month was between 25.91% and 27.29%, and the IV of the next month was between 27.43% and 29.24% [51]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 95.32 today [57]. 300 Index - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 4639.372 to 4657.240, and daily price changes from -0.38% to 0.32%. The current IV of the month was between 14.67% and 14.88%, and the IV of the next month was between 15.82% and 16.84% [63]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 108.62 today [67]. 1000 Index - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 7579.379 to 7605.530, and daily price changes from -0.15% to 0.97%. The current IV of the month was between 18.31% and 19.31%, and the IV of the next month was between 19.06% and 20.56% [68]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 104.72 today [73]. SSE 50 Index - Price and volatility data from December 25 - 29, 2025, with price ranging from 3032.841 to 3045.404, and daily price changes from -0.35% to 0.41%. The current IV of the month was between 12.89% and 13.50%, and the IV of the next month was between 59.33% and 62.95% [78]. - The skew index of the main contract month was 97.89 today [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, market sentiment improved, and risk - asset prices rose. In the global market, the U.S. Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly rate was 4.3%, higher than the previous value and expectations, with the U.S. dollar index falling weekly, and stocks, bonds, and commodities rising. In the domestic market, the year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in November narrowed, and stocks and commodities rose weekly, while the bond market was strong. Overall, in terms of price performance, commodities > stocks > bonds both globally and domestically. In the short term, attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical factors as year - end geopolitical risks have increased, affecting short - term price fluctuations of major assets [3][6][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: U.S. Dollar Index Drops, Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities Rise - **Global Stock Market**: The short - term risk appetite improved, and major global stock markets generally rose. The Asia - Pacific region had the highest increase, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index continued to decline at a low level. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.20% in a week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, etc. [8][11] - **Global Bond Market**: Fed officials showed differences in their stances on the January 2026 monetary policy. Medium - and long - term U.S. bond yields generally declined, with the yield of the 10 - year U.S. bond falling 2BP to 4.14% weekly. The bond market rose weekly, and globally, government bonds > credit bonds > high - yield bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: Recent data showed the resilience of the U.S. economy, and there were differences in the policy expectations of major global central banks. The U.S. dollar index fell weekly by 0.69%, and major non - U.S. currencies generally appreciated against the U.S. dollar. The RMB exchange rate was strong [16]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The price - driving factors were not obvious, and international oil prices fluctuated strongly weekly. Affected by supply - demand factors and the weakening of the U.S. dollar index, international silver prices rose significantly. Most major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals prices rose [17]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stocks and Commodities Rise, Bond Market Runs Strongly - **Domestic Stock Market**: Market sentiment warmed up, and major A - share broad - based indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the growth style had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, non - ferrous metals and military industries led the increase, while the commercial retail and banking sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88% weekly [20]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: The central bank's net investment in the open - market operations was 1.552 billion yuan, and the capital market remained generally stable. The bond market was strong weekly, with government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [24]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose as a whole. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals led the increase [26]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to Geopolitical Factor Changes in the Short Term - At the end of the year, geopolitical risks have increased, which will have a certain impact on the short - term price fluctuations of major assets. Therefore, close attention should be paid to changes in major global geopolitical factors [27].