Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - Steel market has weak domestic demand, high exports, and is expected to fluctuate in a range [2] - Iron ore market has a loose supply-demand situation and is expected to fluctuate [3] - Coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon supply, and prices are likely to fluctuate [4][5] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by various factors and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel saw a slight recovery in apparent demand and production, with continued inventory reduction; hot-rolled coil had a double decline in supply and demand, and inventory reduction accelerated slightly [2] - Iron water production continued to decline, supply pressure eased, and steel mill profits improved marginally [2] - Real estate investment decline expanded, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth slowed, and domestic demand remained weak [2] - Steel exports remained high, and the impact of license management needed to be observed [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments increased month-on-month and were stronger than the same period last year, and domestic arrivals rebounded [3] - Port inventories continued to accumulate, with Australian ore increasing and Brazilian ore decreasing [3] - Terminal demand was low in the off-season, steel mill profitability was poor, and iron water production decreased significantly [3] Coke - The third round of coke price cuts was partially implemented, and daily production decreased slightly [4] - Coke inventory decreased slightly, downstream procurement was on a small scale as needed, and traders' procurement willingness was average [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions were okay, and terminal inventories increased [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and production-side inventory increased slightly [5] Silicon Manganese - Manganese ore spot prices increased due to the rebound in the futures market [6] - Manganese ore port inventory had a structural problem, and the balance was relatively fragile [6] - Silicon manganese production increased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate [6] Ferrosilicon - The market expected an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which led to a decline in power costs and semi-coke prices [7] - Terminal demand was low, and steel mill profitability was poor, and iron water production decreased significantly [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased, and inventory increased slightly [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆★, same as gold [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Not explicitly rated in terms of stars, but considered a good long - allocation variety in the medium - term, with a need to be vigilant about short - term risks [2] Core Viewpoints - The overnight US November CPI and core CPI unexpectedly dropped to 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, with the core CPI at its lowest since March 2021. Fed Chair candidates think there is still room for interest rate cuts. The precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend. If gold can break through the historical high, the performance of precious metals is expected to strengthen [1] - The continuous rise of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the shift of funds in the precious metals sector, and the prospects of large - scale hydrogen energy applications during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period give platinum and palladium higher premiums. They are good long - allocation varieties in the medium - term, but short - term risks due to large price increases and possible high - level capital outflows need attention [2] Summary by Related Information US Economic Data and Interest Rate Expectations - US November unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year rose from 26.6% to 28.8% [2] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2%, in line with market expectations, and is likely to have ended the interest rate cut cycle [2] - The Bank of England cut the benchmark interest rate from 4.00% to 3.75%, and the governor said the pace of interest rate cuts would slow [2] - The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate by 25 basis points from 0.5% to 0.75%, reaching the highest level in 30 years [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆粕: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 棕榈油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 菜粕: 一颗星代表偏空 [1] - 菜油: 一颗星代表偏空 [1] - 玉米: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 生猪: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 鸡蛋: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] Report's Core View - 农产品各品种走势分化，需关注各品种供需、政策、天气等因素变化，部分品种短期面临压力，部分品种策略上有偏空倾向 [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 豆一 - 豆一主力合约跳空下跌后盘整且移仓，本周四中储粮购销双向指卖底价3900元/吨，全部成交但成交价格较上次跌130元/吨，下周一计划竞价拍卖2.1万吨，短期供应压力环比增加，本周五进口大豆指卖成交比例和价格均下滑，需关注政策端表现 [2] 大豆&豆粕 - 今日进口大豆拍卖成交比例32.66%，成交均价3750.83元/吨，南美天气好转，拉尼娜明年一季度转ENSO中性概率68%，交易逻辑重回美豆出口担忧和南美丰产预期，美豆销售量近5年同期最低，期货价格跌回前期底部，豆粕价格追随美豆震荡，等待南美天气变化 [3] 豆油&棕榈油 - 今日进口大豆指卖成交比例和价格下滑，海外美豆油和马棕油疲弱，全球菜籽供需宽松带动豆棕油走弱，国内油脂延续疲弱，进口大豆拍卖频率提升带来短期供应压力，CBOT大豆市场忧虑美豆出口，中期南美天气是矛盾点，海外棕榈油马来西亚库存压力高，需谨慎后续产量降幅低于往年拉长高库存周期，短期注意油脂供需面压力 [4] 菜粕&菜油 - 菜系延续下跌，市场对中加关系预期转暖，全球菜籽供需宽松，加拿大菜籽出口多元化推进慢，期价下沉，澳大利亚菜籽将压榨，市场对放开商业购买有预期，菜系焦点在进口端，关注政策变数，策略偏空 [6] 玉米 - 东北及北港玉米现货价格下行，东北农户惜售减弱，下游对高价粮观望，华北采购积极性降温，阶段性供需错配缓解，关注东北售粮进度和拍卖情况，短期大连玉米期货03合约高位震荡偏弱 [7] 生猪 - 生猪期货小幅反弹，现货冬至备货结束价格回落，从能繁母猪存栏推算春节后出栏处高峰，需求为淡季，预计春节后猪价二次探底，03、05合约期价偏空，春节前关注供应端出栏和去库情况 [8] 鸡蛋 - 春节后2、3、4月合约受打压，2月合约创新低，资金增仓超2万手，市场忧虑高存栏和需求淡季对价格施压，中长期基本面改善，当前处于牛熊转折期，后期存栏有望下降，盘面关注节奏和预期差 [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - Number Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market presents a complex situation with different investment outlooks for various soft commodities. Some commodities show potential for price increases or decreases, while others are in a state of balance. Investors should pay attention to supply - demand relationships, production data, and inventory changes for each commodity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, and the spot sales basis was stable. New cotton production increased this year, but commercial inventory was basically the same year - on - year, and the sales progress was fast, supporting the market. Demand was stable in the off - season. As of November, commercial inventory was 468.36 million tons, and as of December 11, the cumulative processing volume was 579.4 million tons. There were expectations of a decrease in Xinjiang's planting area next year. Spinning mills' raw material demand was resilient, and their finished - product inventory was low. The market was oscillating strongly, and industries could consider hedging opportunities. Operationally, it was advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, the production in the second half of November was neutral, and the season was ending. After the rainy season, less rainfall in the main production areas might lead to a decline in next year's sugarcane yield. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was also weak. In November, Guangxi's production was slow, and sugar output decreased year - on - year. However, due to good rainfall in the third quarter, the sugar output in the 25/26 season was expected to be good. Overall, sugar prices were expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price oscillated. In Shandong, cold - storage transactions were average, and the mainstream price was stable. As of December 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 712.7 million tons, a 12.78% year - on - year decrease, and the de - stocking volume was 7.09 million tons, a 33.86% year - on - year decrease. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. Apples had poor quality but high purchase prices, and the reluctance to sell might affect de - stocking. Demand was in the off - season, and the market was bearish. Operationally, a bearish approach was maintained [4] 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - After the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike, the futures prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber oscillated downward. The domestic natural rubber spot price fell, while the synthetic rubber price was stable. The global natural rubber supply was entering the production - reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. The tire operating rate in China decreased slightly, and the inventory of Shandong tire enterprises increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 49.89 million tons, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 1.5 million tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory increased slightly. Demand weakened, and there were opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - Pulp oscillated. As of December 18, the inventory in Chinese mainstream ports was 199.3 million tons, a 2.1% month - on - month decrease. In November, China imported 324.6 million tons of pulp, a 44 - million - ton year - on - year increase. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, faced less pressure from warehouse receipts. The price difference between needle and broadleaf pulp was narrowing, and the external quotes of both increased. Paper mills' pulp purchases were mainly for immediate needs, and the paper price increase was weak. The market was highly competitive. Operationally, it was advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Logs - The futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The external quote decreased, and the domestic price was weak, with a short - term decrease in arrivals. As of December 12, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 6.46 million cubic meters, a 3% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory in Haikou was 272 million cubic meters, a 5.56% month - on - month decrease. Low inventory supported the price, and operationally, it was advisable to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chips: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing downward pressure and some having potential for short - term strength or long - term improvement [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summary of Each Section Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures dropped significantly. Production enterprises faced inventory pressure and increased the incentive to sell at a discount. The demand was negatively affected by the increase in the number of shutdown or planned shutdown of polypropylene plants [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures may enter an accelerated downward phase. The supply pressure of polyethylene increased due to high - load operation and slow inventory digestion, and the demand was weak. The cost support of polypropylene weakened, and the demand was relatively weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rebounded slightly from a low level. The import pressure decreased slightly, and the supply - demand pressure may ease. It is recommended to consider long - term positive spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures showed a weak consolidation. The cost support was insufficient, the de - stocking slowed down, and the market was in a weak downward trend [3] Polyester - PX and PTA increased in positions and prices, and the basis weakened. PX is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded and then weakened. Although the supply may shrink, the long - term pressure remains due to expected new production capacity [5] - Short - fiber's supply - demand seasonally weakened, and its long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chips' demand faded, and the long - term pressure comes from over - capacity [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol futures prices fell. The port continued to de - stock, and the short - term port market is expected to be strong [6] - Urea prices corrected slightly. The daily production decreased, and the demand was strong. The short - term price may fluctuate strongly within a range [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices dropped. The supply pressure eased, but the demand was low. It is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short - term [7] - Caustic soda prices declined. The supply pressure was high, and the profit is expected to be compressed in the long - term [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell again. The supply pressure was high, and it is recommended to short on rebounds in the long - term [8] - Glass prices also declined again. The inventory pressure was large, and the demand was insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market) [1] - Silver: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market) [1] Report's Core View - This week, US non - farm data verified the economic cooling trajectory. Fed Governor Farrer said monetary policy is in a restrictive range with room for rate cuts, and the employment market suggests the Fed should continue to cut rates, with the interest rate 50 to 100 basis points higher than the neutral rate. Gold has been blocked at record highs in recent days and pulled back. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through and refresh the record high. If the breakthrough is confirmed, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue. Tonight, focus on US GPI data and weekly initial jobless claims [1]. - The continuous rally of platinum and palladium on the GZEX, the shift of funds in the precious metals sector, and the prospects of large - scale hydrogen energy application during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period have brought higher premiums to platinum and palladium. With active trading, the market is pricing in the expected supply gap on the fundamental side. Due to the brittle supply and small market size, platinum and palladium are good long - allocation varieties. However, due to the large short - term increase, beware of the short - term multi - killing - multi market caused by funds leaving at high levels. Adopt the idea of long - allocation on pullbacks in the medium term [2]. Other Summaries - The US media reported that if Putin refuses the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, the US will impose new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet", and the White House responded that there is no new decision for now [2]. - The US media reported that the US and Russia will hold talks on the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Miami this weekend [2]. - A joint Fed survey shows that tariffs continue to trouble enterprises, and they expect prices to rise by 4% next year [2]. - According to US media, the Trump administration's recent move to block oil tankers off the Venezuelan coast is the latest manifestation of its "gradual pressure" strategy against Venezuelan President Maduro, aiming to oust Maduro through continuous isolation and squeezing rather than immediate large - scale domestic actions [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★★☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows mixed trends with different products facing various supply - demand and price situations. Some products are under pressure due to factors like over - supply or weak demand, while others are supported by factors such as production cuts or policy impacts [2][3][5] Grouped Summaries by Product Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range consolidation. Production enterprises faced weak sales and rising inventory pressure, while downstream demand was weak due to more polypropylene device shutdowns [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures had a weak consolidation. Polyethylene had supply pressure from high - load production and slow inventory digestion, along with weak downstream demand. Polypropylene had weak cost support and demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures had a weak run. Although import pressure decreased slightly and there were expectations of supply - demand relief, it would mainly oscillate at a low level. A long - short spread positive spread could be considered on dips in the medium - term [3] - Styrene futures closed lower with a narrow - range decline. Cost support was insufficient, and the market was weak due to slower de - stocking and expected supply growth [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose due to oil price rebound. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol rebounded but is still under long - term pressure. Short fiber's supply - demand seasonally weakened, and bottle chip's demand declined with over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol futures prices rose. Ports were de - stocking, and the market might be turning. Urea prices rose significantly. Indian import tenders boosted the market, and production enterprises were de - stocking [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to rise under macro - mood influence. Supply was high, and demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate with the macro - mood. Caustic soda oscillated strongly. Supply pressure was high, and it is also expected to follow the macro - mood [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rose with high - level inventory and large supply pressure. It is expected to follow the macro - mood. Glass prices rose with high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to have a slightly strong oscillation in the short - term [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is affected by geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine, with oil prices under pressure before the further fermentation of geopolitical risks [2]. - Precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and if gold breaks through the historical high, the performance of precious metals is expected to strengthen [3]. - Base metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. show different trends, with some having short - term adjustment needs and others having medium - term upward trends [4][5][8]. - Chemical products' prices are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and policies, with varying trends of strength and weakness [12][13][14]. - Agricultural products' prices are affected by weather, supply - demand, and policies, and investors need to pay attention to relevant influencing factors [36][37][38]. - The financial market, including stock index and treasury bond, is affected by macro - economic data, policy expectations, and international market conditions, showing a pattern of volatility and differentiation [47][48]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Venezuela temporarily avoids the full - scale blockade of US - sanctioned oil tankers, and the oil export business is normal. The US plans a new round of sanctions on the Russian energy industry. Oil prices are under pressure after being priced for the rising geopolitical risks [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical changes in Russia - Ukraine and US - Venezuela affect fuel oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil may get short - term support, but there is medium - term supply pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil may have short - term support but is expected to be weak in the medium term [22]. - **Asphalt**: Venezuela's normal oil export eases the tension of domestic refinery asphalt raw material supply. Asphalt refinery inventory accumulates, and the overall commercial inventory reduction is weak, lacking continuous rebound power [23]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: US November CPI and core CPI fall below expectations. Fed chair candidates think there is room for interest rate cuts. Precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and gold is testing the resistance at the historical high [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices continue to have a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic copper inventory increases, but there is still potential for a multi - allocation rally at the end of the year, with short - term callback and consolidation [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum oscillates around 22,000 yuan. The medium - term upward - trending pattern remains unchanged, and short - term long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [5]. - **Zinc**: The TC of domestic and foreign mines decreases. Shanghai zinc rebounds after finding support at 22,800 yuan/ton. The short - term is strong, but the medium - term is under pressure [8]. - **Lead**: Shanghai lead oscillates at a low level. The lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost supports the price. The import window is open, and the overall supply is sufficient, constraining the price [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounds strongly. Stainless steel spot sales are weak, and the inventory accumulates. Nickel inventory increases, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: The tin market follows the domestic market. The market focuses on the expansion of US data center construction funds in 2026, but the growth of photovoltaic production and sales is not optimistic. The inventory increases, and high - level risks should be noted [11]. Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium oscillates at a high level. Overseas mines keep prices firm, and the market inventory decreases. The futures price is strong, and short positions are at a disadvantage [12]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures fall below 60,000 yuan/ton. There is a strong expectation of capacity acquisition, but the current reality is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon approaches 8,700 yuan/ton. The demand is weak, and the cost support decreases. The increase space is limited [14]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the macro - sentiment, PVC rises, but the demand is weak. Caustic soda oscillates strongly, but the supply pressure is large [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX rises strongly, driving PTA up. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA follows the cost - driven logic before the Spring Festival [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some ethylene glycol plants plan to have maintenance, and the supply is expected to shrink. However, it is under long - term pressure due to the planned new plant production [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: South American weather improves, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. Soybean meal prices will follow the oscillation of US soybeans, and waiting for weather changes is recommended [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The increase in the frequency of imported soybean auctions brings short - term supply pressure. Overseas palm oil has high - inventory pressure, and short - term supply - demand weakness should be noted [37]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canada raises the rapeseed ending inventory, and the price is under pressure. The focus is on the import policy, and a short - biased strategy is recommended [38]. - **Corn**: Northeast and North Port corn prices decline slightly. The short - term supply - demand mismatch eases, and the Dalian corn futures 03 contract oscillates weakly at a high level [40]. - **Pig**: The pig futures 01 contract hits a new low, and the 03 contract falls. The pre - Spring Festival spot price is slightly strong, but there may be a second bottom - probing after the Spring Festival [40]. - **Egg**: Egg futures contracts fall, and the 03 and 04 contracts after the Spring Festival fall more. The industry fundamentals are gradually improving, and chicken - chick replenishment and old - chicken elimination should be followed [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton rises slightly, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The new cotton production increases, but the sales progress is fast, supporting the price. It is recommended to wait and see for now [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates. India and Thailand have good production expectations. The domestic market focuses on the new - season production, and Guangxi has a strong production - increase expectation [43]. - **Apple**: Apple futures oscillate. The demand enters the off - season, and the market sentiment is bearish [44]. - **Wood**: Wood futures are at a low level. The supply decreases, the demand in the off - season is okay, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: Pulp prices fall slightly. The port inventory decreases, and the new - year contract has less warehouse - receipt pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [46]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share index shows mixed performance, and stock index futures fall. The US core CPI hits a three - year low, and the risk preference is boosted. A - shares are supported by the strong RMB and policy expectations, showing an oscillating and differentiated pattern [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rise across the board. Attention should be paid to the impact of US inflation data on interest rate cuts. The domestic market sentiment improves, and the long - end bond recovers significantly [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is under pressure again after pricing in the rising geopolitical risks, and potential positives in the crude oil market revolve around Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical issues. Precious metals maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The prices of various metals and commodities show different trends affected by supply, demand, cost, and policy factors [2][3] - The stock index shows a volatile and slightly stronger, structurally differentiated trend, and the bond futures close up across the board. Market sentiment is affected by factors such as inflation data and policy expectations [47][48] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Venezuela temporarily avoids the full blockade by the US on sanctioned oil tankers, and its oil exports are normal. The US plans a new round of sanctions on Russia's energy industry. The oil price is under pressure again [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical changes in Russia-Ukraine and US-Venezuela affect the cost of fuel oil. High-sulfur raw material shipments may be blocked, providing short-term support, but medium-term supply pressure exists due to high inventory. Low-sulfur fuel oil production may shrink, with short-term support but a medium-term weak trend [22] - **Asphalt**: Venezuela's normal oil exports cool down the sentiment of tight asphalt raw material supply. The inventory accumulation of asphalt refineries and the lack of inventory reduction in commercial inventories lead to a lack of continuous rebound momentum [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The US CPI and core CPI in November exceed expectations and fall to 2.7% and 2.6% respectively. Fed chair candidates think there is room for interest rate cuts, and precious metals maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The copper price shows a narrow-range fluctuation, with stable short-term moving average support. The inventory increases, and there is still potential for a multi-allocation rally [4] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuates around 22,000 yuan. The medium-term trend is slightly stronger, and short-term bulls can hold with the 40-day line as support [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc inventory decreases, while the overseas inventory rises. The short-term trend is slightly stronger, but it is under pressure in the medium term [8] - **Lead**: The lead price is constrained to operate at a low level near the cost. The support level is seen at 16,700 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price rebounds, but the fundamentals are weak. Stainless steel sales are light, and inventory accumulates [10] - **Tin**: The tin market follows the domestic market. The market focuses on the expansion of US data center construction funds in 2026, but the growth of photovoltaic production and sales is not optimistic [11] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese ore price rises, and the inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply of silicon iron decreases, and the inventory rises slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [20] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium price fluctuates at a high level. The mine price is strong, and the inventory decreases. The fundamentals are strong, and the short side is at a disadvantage [12] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price falls below 60,000 yuan/ton. There is a strong expectation of capacity acquisition, but the reality is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand for industrial silicon is weak, the cost support decreases, and the upside space is limited [14] - **Urea**: India's new urea import tender boosts the domestic market. The daily production is high, and the price is strong in the short term [24] - **Methanol**: The methanol port inventory decreases, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price is weak in the short term, and the supply-demand pressure may ease. Consider a positive spread arbitrage in the medium term [26] - **Styrene**: The styrene market shows a weak downward trend due to insufficient cost support and expected supply increase [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The production enterprises have weak sales and high inventory pressure. The demand is weak [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The PVC price rises with macro sentiment. The supply is high, the export improves, but the domestic demand is weak. The caustic soda price fluctuates strongly with macro sentiment [29] - **PX and PTA**: The PX price rises strongly, driving the PTA up. The PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and the PTA processing margin is expected to recover [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounds due to supply contraction expectations, but it is under long-term pressure [31] - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The short fiber supply-demand weakens seasonally, and the bottle chip demand fades. The long-term pressure of overcapacity exists [32] Building Materials - **Glass**: The glass industry has inventory pressure, and the demand is insufficient. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [33] - **20 Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber**: The natural rubber supply decreases, the synthetic rubber supply increases, and the demand weakens. Consider cross-variety arbitrage [34] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash inventory is high, the supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate with macro sentiment [35] Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The South American weather improves, and the market is concerned about US soybean exports and South American yields. The soybean meal price follows the US soybean price to fluctuate [36] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The increase in imported soybean auctions brings short-term supply pressure. The overseas palm oil inventory is high, and the short-term supply-demand is weak [37] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canada raises the rapeseed ending inventory, and the price is under pressure. Keep a bearish tendency [38] - **Soybean No.1**: The soybean No.1 price falls, and the short-term supply pressure increases. Pay attention to policy performance [39] - **Corn**: The corn price shows a high-level volatile and weak trend. Pay attention to the sales progress in Northeast China and auctions [40] - **Pork**: The pork futures price is bearish before and after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the supply and inventory reduction [40] - **Egg**: The egg futures price falls. The industry fundamentals are gradually improving, and pay attention to chicken苗 replenishment and old chicken culling [41] - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuates. The sales progress is fast, and the demand is stable. The industry can consider hedging [42] - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar production progress in Guangxi is slow. Pay attention to the subsequent production [43] - **Apple**: The apple demand is in the off-season, and the market is bearish. Maintain a bearish operation idea [44] - **Timber**: The timber price runs at a low level. The low inventory provides some support, and temporarily wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: The pulp price falls slightly, the port inventory decreases, and the paper mill purchases on a need basis. Temporarily wait and see or conduct short-term operations [46] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A-share index shows a volatile and slightly stronger, structurally differentiated trend. Pay attention to the signals from the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting [47] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures close up across the board. Pay attention to the impact of inflation data on interest rate cuts [48]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月18日 【原油】 夜盘油价继续反弹。EIA数据显示尽管上周原油库存下降，但汽油和馏分油超预期累库。特朗普不断 升级对马杜罗政府施压行为,宣布对进出委内瑞拉的受美国制裁油轮突施"全面彻底"封锁,但要 考虑使用受制裁船只来完成委内瑞拉原油出口的数量较为有限这一事实。美委局势可能带来阶段性 风险溢价,然全球原油供需愈发宽松背景下,和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放 进一步增大供应压力。短期市场多空消息面博弈,油价波动加剧。 (责金属) 本周美国非农等数据验证经济降温轨迹。美联储理事沃勒称货币政策处于限制性区间,仍有降息空 间。黄金偏强运行逼近历史高点，如果实现突破则贵金属强势表现有望延续。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜增仓震荡,测试短期均线支撑强度。私鲁延长一年现有非法采矿政策。铜市整体持仓高, 昨日上海贴水150元，广东升水75元。2026年供应环境前紧后松，跨年多配冲高潜力仍在。 隔夜沪铝再次站上22000元。迈期铝社库窄幅波动,表观消费尚可,沪铝中期震荡偏强趋势未改, 短期多头背靠40日线位置持有,跌破则考虑离场观望。 【铸造 ...