◆ 国投期货 ● 国投期货 -- comex自银与净头寸_新版 " = " = 的金与净买寸_新版 NIMEX == 184 NYMEX把查与净关寸_新版 ted in Mark Comments of Controlled Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Compo == ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Upward Trend (Red Stars)**: None - **Downward Trend (Green Stars)**: None - **Bullish with Low Operability (One Star)**: Egg (★☆☆) [1][11] - **Bearish with Low Operability (One Star)**: None - **Bullish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars)**: None - **Bearish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars)**: None - **Bullish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars)**: None - **Bearish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars)**: None - **Balanced Trend with Low Operability (White Stars)**: All Others [1][11] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, soymeal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, hogs, and eggs, providing insights into price trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - The main soybean contract recovered after a brief gap, with ongoing position transfers. Today, CGS plans to auction 21,000 tons of soybeans, with 13,000 tons sold at a base price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average price of 4,027 yuan/ton, with premiums ranging from 0 - 160 yuan/ton. The premium auction supported the price, keeping it stable and strong. Monitor fundamentals and policies [2] Soybeans & Soymeal - South American weather has improved, with a 68% chance of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has shifted back to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper South American harvest. New - season US soybean sales are at a five - year low, and futures prices have fallen to previous lows. In China, last week, soybean inventories at oil mills slightly increased, while soymeal inventories decreased. Monitor US soybean exports and the impact of La Nina in South America. Soymeal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate, pending South American weather changes [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil rebounded from lows after position reductions, likely due to short - covering. Malaysian palm oil data shows improved exports and lower production, easing the bearish sentiment. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and short - term weather risks in South American production areas are low. Monitor fundamentals [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products have rebounded. After continuous price drops, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to marginal supply - demand improvements. Coastal oil mills in China have zero rapeseed inventories, and Australian rapeseed has not started being crushed. The stability of China - Australia rapeseed trade is uncertain. In the medium term, global rapeseed supply exceeds demand, pressuring prices and potentially leading to a long bottom - forming period. The rapeseed strategy has changed from bearish to short - term neutral [6] Corn - Corn spot prices in Northeast China and northern ports are weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality, high - priced grains. In North China, corn purchasing enthusiasm has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on demand. Prices are stable but weak. The number of remaining trucks at corn deep - processing enterprises has decreased. After the temporary supply - demand mismatch eased, upstream selling enthusiasm is rising, while downstream purchases have not increased significantly. Monitor Northeast selling progress and corn and wheat auctions. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Hogs - Slaughter volume dropped rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and weekend hog spot prices fell sharply. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20 - 30%. There may be a second - fattening restocking wave before the Spring Festival, which could support the current hog price. In the long term, historical hog cycles often have a double - bottom ("W") pattern. The October low was likely the first emotional bottom, and hog prices are likely to form a second bottom in H1 next year due to supply pressure and weak demand. The 03 contract is expected to remain weak [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an over - supplied market. The February contract corresponds to the post - Spring Festival off - season. Although the industry's inventory will decline month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and demand is weak, so the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year will see a continued month - on - month decline in supply and a return to normal demand, so prices are expected to be relatively strong. Consider 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategies. The high - premium peak - season contracts are not yet investable [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market showed a volatile trend of falling first and then rising last week, with most indices closing down weekly. The Kechuang 50 index led the decline with a weekly drop of 2.99%. Sectors such as retail and non - banking finance performed prominently with weekly gains of 6.65% and 2.89% respectively, while sectors like electronics and power equipment were weaker, with weekly drops of about 3.28% and 3.12% respectively [1]. - The market focus last week was on the policy statements of central banks. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the yen's weakening trend remained due to continued concerns about Japan's fiscal situation. In the US, inflation data cooled more than expected, and non - farm payroll data remained resilient, which helped stabilize market expectations for US stocks. Geopolitical tensions in the Russia - Ukraine conflict supported the euro's relative strength. Overall, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike jointly led to a slight strengthening of the US dollar index. The RMB exchange rate was relatively strong, and it is expected that the domestic market may continue the volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in US dollar liquidity and domestic policy signals [1]. - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options mainly declined and remained at a relatively low level this year. The IV of the ChiNext Index ETF option had the deepest decline, reaching 8.20%. The IV of the Kechuang 50 option (IV = 23%) and the ChiNext Index option (IV = 23%) has fallen below the median of the past year. The IV of the 50 and 300 options is currently in the range of 10% - 12%, and the IV of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options is in the range of 14% - 16%. The PCR of most financial options' open interest is still in the range of 90% - 130%, slightly lower than the previous week [2]. - The market may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, and the IV of various financial options remains at a low level this year. It is advisable to continue holding indices with relatively reasonable valuations such as the CSI 300 and CSI A500. Currently, the IV of options has declined, and one can also buy out - of - the - money call options with a long - term expiration date of the corresponding indices. For the Kechuang 50 index, which has large recent fluctuations and still has a relatively high static valuation, if one holds the underlying asset, one can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risks. If one has accumulated a large amount of spot returns, one can also consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options to deal with the market's irrational rise, such as for the ChiNext Index. The CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures still have a relatively high discount, and one can consider continuing to hold the covered call strategy of long - index and short - out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overview - The market showed a volatile trend of falling first and then rising last week, with most indices closing down weekly. The Kechuang 50 index led the decline, and sectors such as retail and non - banking finance performed well, while electronics and power equipment sectors were weak [1]. - Market focus was on central bank policies, geopolitical situations, and the combined effect of the Fed and the Bank of Japan's policies on the US dollar index. The RMB was relatively strong, and the domestic market may continue the volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the short term [1]. Options Market - The IV of various financial options mainly declined last week and remained at a low level this year. The IV of the ChiNext Index ETF option had the deepest decline. The IV of some options has fallen below the one - year median, and the PCR of open interest has slightly decreased [2]. Strategy Outlook - The market may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, and option IV remains at a low level. Strategies include holding reasonable - valued indices, buying long - term out - of - the - money call options, risk - hedging for the Kechuang 50 index, taking profits on spot assets and keeping long - term call options for the ChiNext Index, and holding the covered call strategy for the CSI 1000 - 2603 futures [3]. Market Data of Various Options - Data on the closing price, rise - fall rate, IV, IV change, historical percentile, one - year median IV, trading volume, and open interest PCR of multiple options such as the SSE 50ETF, CSI 300ETF, and others are provided [5]. - For each option, detailed data on the underlying asset price, rise - fall rate, IV, and its percentile in the past one and two years for the current and next months are presented, along with relevant charts such as the price - IV trend, IV term structure, and smile curve [9][21][30] etc.

| 《八 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月22日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉大幅上涨，持仓从01合约向05转移，价格突破了前期的震荡区间。棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。 虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大,但商业库存同比基本持平,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于 淡季，但需求总体持稳。11月份棉花进口环比回升，2025年11月进口12万吨，同比增1.18万吨，环比增3.1万 吨；2025年1-11 ...

◆ 国投期货 ● 国投期货 -- comex自银与净头寸_新版 " = " = 的金与净买寸_新版 NIMEX == 184 NYMEX把查与净关寸_新版 ted in Mark Comments of Controlled Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Compo == ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the precious metals market's "bull market is not over." The long - term support for gold comes from the contraction of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases and Fed rate cuts. Silver will show greater elasticity due to the global fiscal resonance - driven recovery. The market will likely feature a stable gold center and expanding silver elasticity. Investors should focus on three time windows and beware of policy disturbances [4] - Consider buying out - of - the - money call options of silver option contract 01 to trade the "end - of - contract" market, and continue to pay attention to silver call option building opportunities during the index adjustment period [1][2] - Given the strong fundamental and relatively larger upside potential for palladium, consider buying out - of - the - money call options of palladium contract 06 instead of holding futures [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Silver Options - Silver option 01 contract at - the - money option implied volatility is around 38%, and contract 02 is around 46%. Due to profit - taking and approaching expiration, implied volatility is low in the near - term and high in the far - term. One can buy out - of - the - money call options of contract 01 for the "end - of - contract" market [1] - The European silver lease rate is about 2%, but the 1 - 3 - month rate has risen to around 7%. Around January 8 - 15, there will be about $5 billion in gold and nearly $4 billion in silver sales due to index weight adjustments. This situation corresponds to the low - near - high - far implied volatility of silver options [2] Precious Metals Market in 2026 - The precious metals market in 2026 is expected to have a stable gold center and expanding silver elasticity. Investors should focus on three time windows and beware of policy disturbances [4] Platinum and Palladium Options - The liquidity of platinum and palladium far - month option contracts is insufficient. The market focuses on three out - of - the - money call option contracts. Palladium's implied volatility is higher than platinum's, corresponding to its greater upside potential. After the limit - up on December 12, the implied volatility of their option contracts increased slightly. One can consider buying out - of - the - money call options of palladium contract 06 instead of futures [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (implied by the text) [1][3] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and analyses for various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, logs, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber. It analyzes supply, demand, inventory, and other factors for each commodity and gives corresponding investment suggestions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose significantly, with positions shifting from the 01 contract to the 05 contract, breaking through the previous trading range. Spot cotton sales basis remained stable [2] - Despite a large increase in new cotton production this year, commercial inventories are similar to last year, and the sales progress is fast, supporting the market. Demand is stable in the off - season [2] - In November 2025, cotton imports increased month - on - month. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports decreased year - on - year. As of December 18, domestic cotton processing increased year - on - year [2] - There are expectations of a decrease in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year. Spinning mills' raw material demand is resilient, and their finished product inventories are low. The market is bullish, and industries can look for hedging opportunities [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar prices were low. The production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of November was neutral, and the current crushing season is ending [3] - After the rainy season, less rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region may lead to a decline in sugarcane yield next year [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak. In November, Guangxi's sugar production was slow, and imports decreased year - on - year [3] - In the short term, with a strong expectation of increased production in the Northern Hemisphere, sugar prices at home and abroad are expected to continue to decline. However, there may be production cuts in major producing countries next year [3] Apple - Apple futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable, and cold - storage transactions were few. Merchants mainly packed their own goods, and the purchase of farmers' apples was low [4] - As of December 19, national cold - storage apple inventory decreased year - on - year, and the destocking volume also decreased significantly [4] - The market's trading logic has shifted to demand. Poor apple quality, high purchase prices, and strong reluctance to sell may affect destocking speed. With demand in the off - season, the market is bearish [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR futures prices fluctuated, while butadiene rubber BR futures prices rose. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, and synthetic rubber prices were stable to rising [5] - Global natural rubber supply is entering the decreasing production season. Some domestic production areas will stop tapping. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate decreased [5] - China's tire operating rate decreased slightly last week, and Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased, while China's butadiene rubber social inventory decreased [5] - In November, China's tire exports, butadiene rubber imports and exports, and butadiene imports had different changes. Overall, demand is weakening, and there are opportunities for cross - commodity arbitrage [5] Pulp - Pulp prices rose significantly today. As of December 18, 2025, China's mainstream pulp port inventory decreased, although it is still higher year - on - year [6] - In November, domestic pulp imports increased year - on - year. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, may face less pressure from warehouse receipts. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp supports softwood pulp [6] - Paper mills' pulp purchases are mainly for essential needs, and the increase in base paper prices is weak. The pulp market is highly competitive. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term operations [6] Logs - Log futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. Foreign quotes decreased, and domestic prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease [7] - As of December 19, the average daily出库 volume of 13 national ports decreased week - on - week, but the demand in the off - season is still acceptable. The national log inventory decreased, and the inventory pressure is relatively small [7] - Low inventory supports prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

1. Report Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - **Positive Outlook**: Soybean (★★★), indicating a clear upward trend and relatively good investment opportunities [1] - **Moderate Positive**: Rapeseed Meal, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal (★★☆), suggesting a relatively clear upward - trending judgment and an ongoing market rally [1] - **Weak Positive**: Rapeseed Oil, Corn (★☆☆), showing a driving force for upward movement but limited market operability [1] - **Weak Negative**: Eggs (★☆☆), with a driving force for downward movement but limited market operability [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Live Pigs (★★★), indicating a clear downward trend and relatively good short - selling opportunities (implied) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market trends of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy. Different products have different outlooks, with some expected to rise, some to fall, and some to be in a volatile state [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Product Category Soybean - After a brief gap, the soybean market rebounded, and the contract was being rolled over. The auction of 21,000 tons of soybeans by Sinograin had a turnover of 13,000 tons at a base price of 3950 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4027 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 160 yuan/ton, providing support to the price [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved recently, with a 68% probability that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. US soybean futures have fallen back to the previous low - range, and new - season US soybean sales are the lowest in the same period of the past five years. In China, last week, the inventory of imported soybeans in oil mills increased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory decreased. The price of soybean meal will follow the fluctuations of US soybeans and wait for changes in South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil reduced their positions, and prices rebounded from the low level, presumably due to short - covering by bears. Malaysian high - frequency data shows that palm oil exports have improved month - on - month, while production has declined month - on - month, alleviating the bearish atmosphere. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and the short - term weather risk in South American production areas is low [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market has rebounded recently. After the continuous decline in futures prices, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to the marginal positive factors in supply and demand. Coastal oil mills in China maintain zero inventory of rapeseed products, and the restart of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade is difficult to predict. In the medium term, with a global oversupply of rapeseed, rapeseed prices are under pressure, and the price bottoming process may be long. The trading strategy for rapeseed products has changed from bearish to short - term wait - and - see [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and northern ports remain weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality and high - priced corn. Corn procurement enthusiasm in North China has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on - demand. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased. After the short - term supply - demand imbalance is alleviated, the enthusiasm of upstream sellers is on the rise, while downstream procurement shows no significant increase. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Live Pigs - After the Winter Solstice, the slaughter volume dropped rapidly, and the weekend spot price of live pigs was significantly reduced. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20% - 30%. It is expected that there will be another round of second - fattening replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may provide short - term support for the current pig price. In the medium to long term, the pig cycle bottom usually shows a double - bottom ("W") pattern, and the low price in October is likely the first bottom. It is expected that pig prices will have a high probability of a second bottom in the first half of next year under the pressure of supply and the off - season of demand. The main 03 contract is expected to be weak [8] Eggs - The egg spot price is in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an oversupply situation. The February contract corresponds to the off - season after the Spring Festival. Although the industry's inventory is decreasing month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and combined with the off - season demand, the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year are expected to be relatively strong as the supply continues to decline month - on - month and demand returns to normal. An egg reverse spread strategy can be considered, such as 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spreads. The high - premium contracts for the peak season next year are not suitable for investment currently [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star indicates a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastics: ★★☆ (Two stars indicate a long/short position, with a clearer upward/downward trend and the market trend is emerging) [1] - Other products with ☆☆☆: Short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1][10] 2. Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as raw material prices, production capacity changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations. For some products, there are short - term and long - term differences in market trends [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed lower. The market supply is relatively abundant, and producers have a strong willingness to stabilize the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures fell sharply. Polyethylene has high - load supply, slow inventory removal, and weak demand. Polypropylene has sufficient supply and expected weakening demand in the off - season [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated weakly in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. There are expectations of supply - demand pressure relief, but the supply growth expectation limits the driving force. Consider long - spread position building on dips in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures closed higher, maintaining a low - level range - bound pattern. The market is expected to have both supply and demand growth, but supply may increase more, and the weak pure benzene market has limited support [3] Polyester - PX has no new capacity in three years, and the recent sharp increase is due to supply decline expectations. PTA is driven by PX, and polyester has a short - term stable start but a medium - term load - reduction expectation [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded due to supply contraction expectations but lacks upward drive. It is expected to be under long - term pressure and trade in a low - level range [5] - Short - fiber prices follow raw materials, with a relatively good long - term supply - demand pattern. Bottle - chip demand weakens, with cost - driven price increases and poor profitability [6] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol overseas plant operations decline. The port may accumulate inventory in the short term, with short - term weak and volatile market and medium - long - term upward driving force [7] - Urea gas - head plant maintenance leads to a slight decline in production. The market is oversupplied, and short - term prices may fall with market sentiment [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell. Supply pressure eases, but demand is low, and cost support weakens. It may operate at a low level [8] - Caustic soda prices fluctuated. Supply pressure is high, downstream demand growth is limited, and industry profits will continue to be compressed [8] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices oscillated weakly. Supply pressure is large, and demand may decline. Consider short - selling on rebounds and a long - glass short - soda ash strategy [9] - Glass prices weakened. Inventory pressure increases, demand is insufficient, and the industry needs to continue to cut production capacity. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]

【铁矿】 铁矿 今日盘面偏强震荡，近期基差有所走弱。供应端，本期铁矿 全球发运环比回落但仍然强于去年同期水平。澳洲和巴西发运 均小幅下滑，非主流发运小幅增加，考虑到年底矿山发运仍有冲量预期，我们预计海外发运继续偏强。国内到横量环比回落， 仍然处于同期高位。需求端，淡季终端需求处于低位，铁水产量下降幅度仍然较大。短期宏观相关表述偏积极，反内卷情绪也 再次升温，市场情绪有所好转。 铁矿石基本面较为宽松，我们预计短期盘面走势以震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格偏强震荡。焦炭第三轮提降全面落地，焦化利润一般，日产略微下降。焦炭库存小幅下降，目前下游少量按需采购， 贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元素供应充浴，下游铁水季节性回落，目前对原材料需求仍有韧性，钢材利润水平一般, 对于原材料压价情绪较浓。焦炭盘面升水，市场对刺激政策有一定预期，价格大概率震荡为主。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | | | | MILIA | ビリメアル | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月22日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ...