| | 操作评级 | 2025年06月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | な女女 | | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | なな☆ | | | 碳酸锂 | 女女女 | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业等 | 女女女 | | | 多晶硅 | なな女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周二沪铜收阳，今日现铜78415元，上海铜升水缩至40元，广东升水缩至30元。隔夜美国6月标普制造业PMI初值 处于扩张状态, ...

(原油) 隔夜国际油价大幅下行，布伦特08合约跌8.63%，预计SC原油期货开盘后补跌。周一伊朗对美国驻 卡塔尔空军基地进行导弹袭击以作为美国袭击其三处核设施的回应,而并未出现霍尔木兹海峡封锁 的极端情景，特朗普称伊朗与以色列已达成停火协议，尽管暂未最终确认，本轮伊以冲突在未构成 石油供应犹动的前提下仍出现明确缓和信号。本轮油价上涨的宏观及供需面支撑偏弱,溢价点集中 在中东地缘风险，地缘局势的缓和将带动原油重回空头趋势，此前相对偏强的内外盘价差、柴油裂 解价差同样面临修复。 【责金属】 隔夜伊以冲突进展发生逆转,特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致,将实现全面停火,原油和 黄金均回落。如顺利实现停火，市场关注点将逐渐转向关税谈判和美联储。今日关注鲍威尔就半年 度货币政策报告作证词陈述。 【铜】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月24日 隔夜美伦铜价格震荡走高,伦铜继续去库,LME0-3月升水接近280美元。美国6月标普制造业PMI 初 值处于扩张状态,欧元区继续萎缩停滞。伦铜暂时仍稳固在MA20日均线。国内现铜升水缩窄，SMM 社库减少1.63万吨至12.96 ...

| | E Raily | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月23日 | | 聚丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | PX | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PTA | 女女女 | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | | | 短纤 | ななな | 瓶片 | な女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 尿素 | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | PVC | 女女女 | 烧碱 | 女女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 女女女 纯碱 | | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 甲醇盘面持续回调。伊朗甲醇装置维持停车,港口库存偏低,且周期内呈现去库,后续我国沿海 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面继续震荡。螺纹表需环比趋稳，产量有所回升，库存继续下降。热卷需求回暖，产量维持高位，库存有所回落。目前 高炉仍有利润，铁水产量维持相对高位，不过淡季承接能力不足，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看，基建回暖缺乏持续 性，制造业投资增速继续放缓，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新开工等指标继 ...

| /// ◆ 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月23日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周国际油价继续上行,布伦特08合约涨2.85%,SC08合约涨8.82%;今日开盘后外盘市场高开低走,SC日内涨 0.3%。周日美国袭击伊朗三处核设施，有迹象表明伊朗欲采取的报复回应包括但不限于袭击美国驻伊拉克、叙 利亚美军基地,且伊朗议会已批准封锁霍尔木兹海峡,最终决定由最高安全机构决定。我们始终认为在美伊重 返谈判泉或伊朗政权更替前,伊朗的能源基础设施及霍尔木兹海峡通行相关的供应风险依 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bean Meal**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - position trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, bean meal, edible oils, corn, hogs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, geopolitics, policies, and supply - demand relationships, and provides corresponding investment suggestions and trend judgments for each product [2][3][7] Summaries by Agricultural Product Categories Soybeans and Related Products - **Domestic Soybeans**: The remaining domestic soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and the policy is conducting auctions for supplementation. Short - term weather is favorable for domestic soybean growth. For imported soybeans, attention should be paid to the report on the new soybean planting area in the US at the end of June, and short - term weather is also beneficial for US soybean growth [2] - **Soybeans and Bean Meal**: The Israel - Iran war has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices, driving up the prices of oil - related futures. US soybean growing conditions are favorable in the next two weeks. Domestically, soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply has become more abundant, and bean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The soybean market is currently in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to changes in the oil market and future weather [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: CBOT soybeans should be monitored for the new planting area report at the end of June. The short - term weather outlook is beneficial for US soybeans. CBOT soybean oil prices are strong. Domestically, there is a large arrival pressure in the short term, and the fourth - quarter procurement progress is slower than usual. The long - term view is to maintain a long - position allocation for vegetable oils, and short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed meal prices generally declined today, while rapeseed oil prices showed mixed trends. The weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is dry, and the crop quality is below the average in recent years. Domestic rapeseed crushing has declined, which supports the high price difference between rapeseed products and competing products. The impact of geopolitical risks and biodiesel policies has been mostly digested, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy for rapeseed products is to shift from a bullish stance to a wait - and - see approach [6] Corn - The introduction of the minimum wheat purchase price policies in Henan and Anhui has strengthened the price increase expectations of corn/wheat. The supply of corn in the circulation link has tightened, and the futures market may continue to fluctuate [7] Hogs - The weekend increase in hog spot prices drove the futures market to open higher today and then fluctuate. In the short term, group farms are reducing supply to support prices, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased. In the medium term, the pressure on hog slaughter is large. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize hog prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Due to the high number of chick replenishments from January to April this year, egg - laying capacity is still being released. The long - term egg price cycle has not reached the bottom, and there is a possibility of further decline in the far - month contracts [9]

本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | Million | > 國投期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月23日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 近期市场焦点在伊以冲突如何演绎,在双方互相实施持续性打击之后,周末紧张局势再升级，美军对伊朗三 个核设施进行打击,伊朗称美军已成合法打击目标、伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡,但最终决定权在伊朗 最高国家安全委员会手中。目前各方表态均强硬，暂时没有缓和信号，关注大国参与程度，周一早盘国际金 价小幅高开后回落,市场并不认为事态将往失控方向发展,国际金价在3450美元/盎司位置仍体观转强阻 力。金融市场面临剧烈波动风险，贵金属观望为主。 ★伊以、伊美冲突：11伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡,但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中 ...

| VA 2 SDICFULURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月23日 | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | ★☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | 女女女 | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | 女女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | なな女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一沪铜震荡收阴,晚间关注伦铜MA20日均线表现。今日现铜78325元,平水铜升水收窄到70元。周末SWM社库 减少1.63万吨 ...

流动性和需求均承压 商品短期或震荡偏弱运行 大宗商品周度报告 2025年6月23日 ●行情回顾：上周商品市场整体收涨2.29%，其中能化涨幅较大，上涨4.11%， 农产品和黑色分别上涨2.10%和0.91%，贵金属和有色金属分别下跌1.76%和 0.09%。 ●展望：伊以局势的演化备受关注，决定着短期大类资产的走向和定价逻辑， 周末美国对于伊朗采取了行动攻击了核设施，市场有伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡的预 期，能源价格偏强。但是从美国的表现来看又有对局势维稳的诉求，短期不确定 性仍然存在，观察后续伊朗的反击力度。风险偏好短期承压，但人民币稳定下冲 击力度有限，继续跟踪能源隐含波动率的情况核离岸美元流动性的稳定情况。 贵金属方面，国际金价高位整理，主要受美联储官员释放偏鸽信号、市场对 年内降息预期升温的影响，美元指数回落进一步助推资金流入黄金市场。地缘政 治紧张局势未明显缓和，加之全球央行购金趋势持续，为黄金提供坚实支撑。白 银走势则相对分化，受制造业数据波动影响呈区间震荡。 有色金属方面，板块整体窄幅震荡。铜价高位整理，支撑来自海外库存偏紧、 全球新能源投资延续，但短期受美联储利率政策及高位消费乏力影响，动能放缓； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged, the Middle - East geopolitical situation further escalated, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds were weak, and commodities continued to rise. In general, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of USD - denominated assets [3][6]. - In China, from June 16th to June 20th, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in May was lower than expected, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May was higher than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment from January to May was 3.7%, lower than expected. The year - on - year decline of national real estate development investment from January to May was 10.7%. The stock market declined, and the bond market and commodities rose. Generally, commodities > bonds > stocks [3]. - The market will focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Large - scale Asset Overall Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Middle - East situation increased market risk - aversion, and most global stock markets declined. European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index fluctuated weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The divergence of Fed officials' monetary policy expectations increased. Medium - and long - term US bond yields declined, and the 10 - year US bond yield fell 3BP to 4.38% weekly. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the US macro data was generally stable, market risk - aversion increased, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar index rose 0.63% weekly [14]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The escalation of the geopolitical situation supported the high - level operation of international oil prices. Precious metal prices declined, and the prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [16]. 3.2 Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the geopolitical situation continued to affect equity assets, and most major broad - based A - share indexes declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chips were relatively more resilient. Among sectors, banks had the highest gains, while pharmaceuticals and textile and apparel underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51% weekly [18]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market fluctuated strongly weekly. Generally, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [21]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose overall. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, while precious metals underperformed [22]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The market will continue to focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [23].