Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical news - driven rebound in oil prices has limited space and sustainability, and there is a downward drive for oil prices in the medium - to - long - term. Gold and silver markets are affected by US economic data and Fed meetings, and it's not advisable to chase high prices for precious metals before gold breaks through the previous high resistance. The prices of various metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [2][3]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Peace in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian companies and the release of restricted oil supplies. The US oil production is expected to set a larger - than - expected record. The market is concerned about the IEA's December report. The oil price rebound has mostly been reversed, and there is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year, with a downward drive for oil prices in the medium - to - long - term [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is influenced by multiple factors and follows the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the demand drive is limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure is relieved, but the demand lacks highlights. The overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and the short - term is expected to continue the shock pattern [19]. - **Asphalt**: Some refineries in Hebei have launched winter storage contracts, and the price is higher than market expectations. Some refineries in Shandong have switched to producing residue oil, and the supply has tightened, driving the market price up slightly. The decline of BU following the drop in crude oil prices is limited [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The number of job openings in the US in October increased, silver reached a new high, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline. The market focuses on the Fed meeting, and it's not advisable to chase high prices for precious metals before gold breaks through the previous high resistance [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The copper price adjusted overnight, and some positions took profits when the Fed cut interest rates in December. The market is concerned about the adjustment, and some long positions can be held after taking partial profits [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated narrowly overnight. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited, and the overbought situation in the technical aspect is being repaired [5]. - **Zinc**: The long positions took profits at high prices, and the Shanghai zinc price tested the annual line support. The domestic zinc ingot output is expected to decrease in December, and the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to rebound following the external market in the short - term, with a resistance level at 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The low price of lead reduces the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory in the exchange is low, and there is no obvious squeeze - out risk in the near - term. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement at low prices [9]. - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuated overnight. The Shanghai tin price continued to reduce positions and fell below the moving average. Options strategies can be considered [9]. - **Nickel**: No relevant content provided. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated. The manganese ore spot price increased, and the port inventory has a structural problem. The silicon - manganese production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slowly [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated. The market expects a decrease in coal supply, which may lead to a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. The demand has some resilience, and the supply decreased slightly, with the inventory decreasing slightly [17]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the domestic arrival decreased. The port inventory continued to accumulate. The demand is in the off - season, and the steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore price has a downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be short - term fluctuations [13]. - **Coke**: The market expects a second - round price cut for coke. The coking profit is average, and the daily output increased slightly. The inventory decreased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The output of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the spot auction price mainly decreased. The total inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel price stabilized overnight. The demand for rebar decreased in the off - season, and the output and inventory decreased. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly. The steel mills' profitability is poor, and there is a possibility of further production cuts. The black - series products are under pressure in the short - term, and the market is sensitive to macro - policies [12]. Chemicals - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon futures strengthened significantly, driven by the news of the establishment of a polycrystalline silicon consortium. The short - term upward expectation exists, but it needs policy verification to break through the upper limit of the range [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon broke through the previous low. The production reduction effect in the southwest region weakened, and the demand from the organic silicon and polycrystalline silicon industries decreased. The price may continue to decline, but it may be supported at the 8,000 - yuan/ton level [11]. - **Urea**: The urea price decreased slightly. The compound fertilizer enterprises increased their production, and the inventory of urea production enterprises decreased last week. The supply is still abundant, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [21]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price continued to decline at night. The inventory at the port is expected to remain high, and the supply along the coast is sufficient. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly within the range [22]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price continued to decline. The port inventory increased, but the supply - demand pressure may be relieved in the future. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend [23]. - **Styrene**: The crude oil price decreased, and the pure benzene price may fluctuate within a range, which is difficult to drive the styrene price up. However, the supply - demand structure of styrene has not weakened and may support the price [24]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene production enterprises' sales are smooth, but the price increase momentum is insufficient. The polyethylene supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply pressure of polypropylene is controllable, but the downstream demand is in the off - season [25]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC price continued to decline. The supply pressure may be relieved if the enterprises are forced to overhaul. The export situation has improved, but the domestic demand is weak. The caustic soda price continued to decline, with high supply and low demand, and the industry inventory is under pressure [26]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices fell at night. The PX load decreased slightly, and the PTA output increased slightly. The terminal weaving load continued to decline. The PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and the PTA processing margin is expected to be repaired [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol market was boosted by the news of device shutdowns. The supply increased, and the demand decreased seasonally, resulting in significant inventory accumulation pressure. The long - term pressure still exists [28]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber load is high, and the inventory increased slightly. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. The bottle - chip demand is weak, and the production capacity is in surplus, with the price mainly driven by costs [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean data in the December USDA report remained unchanged. The South American weather has improved, which is beneficial to soybean growth. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased. The strategy is to wait and see the South American weather, and consider going long if the weather deteriorates [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet remained unchanged in December. Argentina will reduce the export tax on soybeans and their products. The market expects the palm oil inventory in Malaysia to increase. The short - term view is that the prices of soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate within a range [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market is facing the supply impact of new crops. The supply is at its loosest stage, and the demand lacks positive factors. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import is diversified. The short - term price is expected to be weak [35]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic soybean price is in a sideways shock adjustment. The policy will auction imported soybeans. The short - term US soybean price is in a callback, and the medium - term price is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the domestic soybean spot and policy [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures continued to decline in a shock pattern. The US corn export data increased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong. The supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast is tight, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. The short - term 01 contract may decline, and the 03 and 05 contracts can be considered for long - positions after the decline [37]. - **Live Pig**: The live pig 03 contract rebounded slightly, and the far - month contracts were weak. The impact of the epidemic on the pig supply is expected to be limited. The industry needs to reduce inventory, and the pig price may have a second - bottoming in the first half of next year [38]. - **Egg**: The egg futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price increased. The 01 contract price is expected to be weak due to the convergence of futures and spot prices. The far - month contracts have reached a short - term high [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price increased slightly. The domestic cotton sales progress is fast, but the downstream orders are weak, which limits the cotton price. The operation strategy is to wait and see [40]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar price fluctuated. The sugar production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [41]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price fluctuated at a high level. The cold - storage apple sales are average, and the price is strong. The short - term price is strong, but the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure [42]. - **Wood**: The wood futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is in the off - season, but the port delivery increased last week. The low inventory supports the price, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price decreased at night. The port inventory decreased, and the new - year contract may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the operation strategy is to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [44]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Maersk's pricing strategy is cautious, and the downward freight rate center is expected to be around $2400 - 2500/FEU. The loading rate is increasing, but the market lacks strong driving factors. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate [18]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market was mixed, and the stock index futures closed down. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision. The A - share market is expected to be strong in a shock pattern, and investors can increase positions slightly at low prices after the uncertainty is relieved [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures fluctuated and adjusted. The interest - rate bond yields decreased. The market is still cautious, and investors can participate in the rebound of some oversold varieties after the liquidity is restored [46].

姓名：范丽军 投资咨询号：Z0018336 日期：2025.12.05 contents 期权市场惊涛骇浪下的风 险识别与管理 国投期货研究院 1、期权隐含的风险指标 2、2025 年风险识别 3、稳健型策略 4、2026 年期权策略展望 期权隐含的风险指标 期权价格影响因素--T、K 、S 定义：期权是指赋予买方在规定期限按约定价格（简称执行价格K）买或卖一定数量某种金 融资产（标的资产S）权利。 到期时， max(0, ) max(0, ) T T K S S K = − = − 看跌期权价值 看涨期权价值 | 影响因素 | T | K | S | 数量 | 波动率σ | 利率r | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 看涨期权价格 | + | - | + | + | | 近期策略分析 | | 看跌期权价格 | + | + | - | + | | | 期权品种特点 期权价格影响因素 --波动率 行权价100看涨期权价值： 未到期时，看涨期权的期望收益近似为： () = =1 c ∗ 标的价格 (100，105] (105,110] (110,115] ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly indicated [1] - Methanol: Not clearly indicated [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Styrene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Propylene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not clearly indicated [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars) [1] - Soda Ash: Not clearly indicated [1] - Bottle Chips: Not clearly indicated [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and device operations. Different chemical products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range intraday consolidation. Production enterprises had smooth shipments, but the overall trading atmosphere was average. Downstream demand provided some support, but the upward momentum of prices was insufficient [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures closed down. For polyethylene, supply was abundant, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs. For polypropylene, supply pressure was controllable due to concentrated maintenance, but downstream demand showed signs of weakening [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene futures closed below 5,500 yuan/ton again. The spot price in East China declined slightly. There was pressure in the short - term, but the supply - demand pressure might ease in the future. Consider long - short spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures closed down slightly. The decline in crude oil prices made it difficult to drive the rise of styrene, but the supply - demand structure supported the price [3] Polyester - The decline in oil prices dragged down PX and PTA prices. The load of PX decreased slightly, and the output of PTA increased slightly. The supply - demand drive of the industry chain was limited [4] - Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly in the late trading. The market faced inventory - building pressure due to increased supply and seasonal decline in demand. Short - term device shutdowns would relieve the supply pressure, but long - term pressure remained [4] - Short - fiber load ran at a high level, and inventory increased slightly. The long - term supply - demand pattern was relatively good. Bottle - chip demand weakened, and the long - term pressure was over - capacity [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures prices fluctuated weakly. The port inventory was expected to remain high. The short - term supply - demand pattern was difficult to improve significantly, and it would mainly fluctuate weakly within a range [5] - Urea prices declined slightly. Last week, urea production enterprises destocked. The supply was still high, and the market sentiment cooled down. The market was expected to oscillate and correct [5] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC continued to decline. The supply pressure might be relieved if enterprises were forced to overhaul. The export situation improved, but the domestic demand was weak. It was expected to operate in a low - level range [6] - Caustic soda continued to decline. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, but the support for the liquid caustic soda price was limited. The industry faced high inventory pressure and would continue to compress profits [6]

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor strength of the black and chemical sectors declined, while that of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in cross - section, and the chemical and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak [3]. - For the CTA strategy, the signals vary across different commodities. For example, the comprehensive signal for methanol is short, for glass is long, for iron ore changes from long to short, and for lead remains short [3][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Commodities in General - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor strength of the black and chemical sectors declined, while that of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in cross - section, and the chemical and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, the demand factor weakened by 0.01%, the inventory factor increased by 0.36%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.01%. The comprehensive signal this week is short [3]. Black Sector - The short - cycle momentum of the black sector decreased. The term structure shows narrowing differentiation. The positions of coking coal and coke remained low, and the short - cycle momentum of iron ore reversed and declined [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, last week the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week the comprehensive signal is long [9]. Non - Ferrous Sector - The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, and the cross - section momentum differentiation narrowed. Copper and zinc are relatively strong, and tin is relatively weak in cross - section [3]. - The time - series momentum of gold declined, the position of silver remained high, and the cross - section differentiation at both ends widened [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - The long - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemical sector decreased, and ethylene glycol is at the short end in cross - section [3]. Agricultural Product Sector - The cross - section differentiation of oil and meal narrowed, and the position of soybean oil decreased marginally [3]. Glass - In terms of strategy net value, last week the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week the comprehensive signal is long. The production of float glass enterprises, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities, and the continuous destocking of float glass enterprises all release long signals. The spot price of glass is neutral, and the profit of glass remains short [9]. Iron Ore - In terms of strategy net value, last week the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week the comprehensive signal changes from long to short. The cumulative year - on - year decline of iron ore production has narrowed, the port daily dredging volume has decreased, the inventory of port iron ore and trade ore has accumulated, and the spot price center has moved down [11]. Lead - In terms of strategy net value, last week the supply factor increased by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.46%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.5%, the spread factor weakened by 0.33%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%, and this week the comprehensive signal remains short. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, the inventory of lead has decreased, the position of the main contract of Shanghai lead has decreased, and the spread of lead has moved down [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Paper pulp: ★★★ - Sugar: ★★★ - Apple: ★★★ - Timber: ★★★ - Natural rubber: ★★★ - 20 - number rubber: ★★★ - Butadiene rubber: ★★☆ [4] Core Views - The cotton market has strong support from low commercial inventories and stable demand, but short - term upside is limited. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak. Apple market has increased long - short divergence, and the focus is on de - stocking. Natural rubber supply is decreasing, and synthetic rubber supply is stable. Pulp prices may fluctuate in the medium - term. Timber prices are supported by low inventories. [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures have been fluctuating recently. Although new cotton production has increased significantly this year, commercial inventories are not high and sales progress is fast, providing support. Demand is stable in the off - season, and the focus is on the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. Spinning mills' raw material demand is resilient, and finished product inventories are low. The industry can consider hedging opportunities, and the current operation is to wait and see. As of November 30, national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, and as of December 4, the cumulative processing volume was 5.794 million tons. [1] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production remains high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand have started crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. In November, Guangxi's sugar production was slow, but the 25/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi is expected to have a relatively good output. Overall, sugar prices are expected to be weak. [2] Apple - Futures prices are fluctuating at high levels. Spot prices are stable. Apple sales are in the off - season, and cold - storage transactions are average. As of December 5, national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.2438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.24%. The market's trading logic has shifted to demand, and the focus is on future de - stocking. [3] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU futures prices fell slightly, 20 - number rubber NR futures prices fluctuated, and butadiene rubber BR futures prices declined. Global natural rubber supply is entering the decreasing period, and synthetic rubber supply is stable. Natural rubber inventories are increasing, and synthetic rubber inventories are decreasing. The cost has strong support, and the market sentiment is cautious. Consider cross - variety arbitrage opportunities. [5] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures rose slightly. As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.101 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons from the previous period. In November, China imported 3.246 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons. The mid - term trend may be range - bound. [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices in Rizhao decreased by 10 yuan. Supply prices decreased, and short - term arrivals will decrease. As of December 5, the average daily outbound volume of 13 national ports was 66,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5,300 cubic meters. The total national port log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous period. Low inventories support prices, and the current operation is to wait and see. [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The black series continues the resonance decline under the negative feedback pattern, and the disk is still under pressure in the short term. After a significant adjustment, the volatility may intensify. Attention should be paid to the changes in macro policies [1]. - The iron ore fundamentals are relatively loose. There are short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore types. In the medium and long term, as supply and demand gradually become surplus, the overall trend is under downward pressure [2]. - The coke and coking coal prices may be mainly in a weak shock. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal is seasonally declining, and the steel mills have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [3][5]. - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are mainly in a shock. The silicon manganese inventory is slowly increasing, and the ferrosilicon supply is decreasing and the inventory is slightly decreasing. Attention should be paid to the bottom support strength [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's disk declined. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased month-on-month, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory slowly declined. The hot metal output continued to decline, and the supply pressure gradually eased. The downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the steel mill profits were still poor. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the later stage is relatively large. The real estate investment continued to decline significantly, the infrastructure growth rate continued to decline, the manufacturing PMI improved marginally, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. The steel exports remained high in November [1]. Iron Ore - Today's trend was weak. On the supply side, the global shipment increased month-on-month, much stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume continued to decline month-on-month, slightly lower than the same period last year. The port inventory continued to accumulate and approached the annual high. On the demand side, the terminal demand was at a low level in the off-season, the steel mill profitability was poor, and the hot metal production continued to decrease last week. It is expected to maintain the seasonal production reduction trend in the future, but the decline rate will slow down. The overseas interest rate cut expectation has increased, and an important domestic meeting is about to be held, and the overall macro atmosphere is warm [2]. Coke - The intraday price was in a weak shock. The market still has expectations for the second round of coke price cuts. The coking profit is average, and the daily output has slightly increased. The coke inventory has slightly decreased, and currently, downstream customers purchase on demand in small quantities, and the inventory change is not large. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal is seasonally declining, and the steel mill profits are average. The steel mills have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [3]. Coking Coal - The intraday price was in a weak shock. The coking coal mine output decreased slightly, the spot auction transactions were average, and the transaction prices mainly decreased. The terminal inventory decreased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and the production end inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal is seasonally declining, and the steel mill profits are average. The steel mills have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [5]. Silicon Manganese - The intraday price was mainly in a shock. Driven by the disk rebound, the manganese ore spot price has increased. The Comilog quotation has increased slightly month-on-month, and it is reported that the offer volume has decreased month-on-month. Currently, there is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore will probably increase. The hot metal output is seasonally decreasing, the weekly silicon manganese output has decreased slightly, and the silicon manganese inventory is slowly increasing [6]. Ferrosilicon - The intraday price was mainly in a shock. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, the hot metal output has rebounded to a high level. The export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The metal magnesium output has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand is still resilient. The ferrosilicon supply has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the weekly trends of non - ferrous metals, analyzing the price movements, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks of various metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It suggests different trading strategies based on each metal's characteristics, like holding copper long - positions with certain stop - profit measures, being cautious about high - position risks in tin, etc. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Price and Market**: Last week, both domestic and foreign copper prices hit record highs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in February 2026 is high. The spot signal shows that the inflection point of copper price is not obvious. [1] - **Supply**: In December, there is a certain production rush expectation, with an estimated monthly output increase of 5.57 tons. Domestic smelters may choose to reduce the production of 106 primary copper concentrates during equipment shutdown. [1] - **Outlook**: The LME copper price is at a high level, and the spot premium has decreased. The market is mainly trading based on expectations. There is a probability that the upward trend of copper prices may pause. If the Fed cuts interest rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, the copper price at a record high may correct. Long - positions can be held along the M5 moving average, and partial active profit - taking can be considered. [1] 3.2 Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, with no long - term production reduction. In December and January, 50,000 tons and 110,000 tons of exchange warehouse receipts will expire and flow out respectively. [1] - **Demand**: The downstream aluminum processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9% month - on - month. In November, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 14.8% year - on - year but increased by 66,800 tons month - on - month. [1] - **Inventory and Spot**: Aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 985,000 tons, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 7000 tons to 121,000 tons. The inventory is higher than in previous years. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China have widened. [1] - **Outlook**: Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of silver and copper prices has driven up aluminum prices. The medium - term fluctuating and strengthening trend continues, but in the short term, market sentiment may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see. [1] 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Market**: Last week, SHFE zinc rose 3.92% and strongly broke through the annual line, following the external market trend. The internal - external price difference is oscillating at a high level. [1] - **Supply**: LME zinc inventory increased to 55,400 tons. Overseas smelters' production resumption expectations are insufficient. The supply of zinc concentrates is tight, and domestic smelter maintenance is expanding. The zinc ingot export window is open, and downstream demand is stable. [1] - **Demand**: Southern consumption is good, while northern demand weakens with the cold weather. In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the expected investment in underground pipeline network construction and renovation is about 5 trillion, and galvanized pipe consumption is expected to be strong in 2026. [1] - **Outlook**: Supported by tight ore supply, SHFE zinc can be seen as a low - level rebound. After breaking through the annual line, it is expected to further test the 24,000 integer mark. [1] 3.4 Lead - **Price and Market**: Last week, the expectation of smelter production reduction and increased downstream bargain - hunting purchases supported the market rebound. The SHFE lead main contract rose 1.7%, and LME lead rebounded to the 20 - day moving average and then faced pressure. [1] - **Supply**: LME lead inventory decreased to 243,000 tons, still relatively high. The supply of lead concentrates is in short supply, and the recycling volume of waste batteries has decreased. The market supply of lead ingots is tight. [1] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of lead - acid battery production increased by 1.07 percentage points to 24.46% week - on - week. The consumer market has both positive and negative factors, with insufficient incremental expectations. [1] - **Outlook**: Constrained by cost and consumption, SHFE lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton. There may be short - term price increases due to capital movements. [1] 3.5 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: SHFE nickel rebounded and traded sideways at a high level, with light market trading and relatively low positions. SHFE stainless steel also rebounded, but overall trading was sluggish. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In the context of repeated macro - expectations, the willingness of both long and short sides to compete has decreased. Although stainless steel mills have frequently announced production cuts, the actual production reduction in November was insufficient. Downstream demand confidence is lacking. [1] - **Inventory**: Pure nickel inventory increased by 1500 tons to 57,000 tons, nickel iron inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 997,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: Given high - level inventory and volatile macro - factors, short - selling at high levels is more reasonable. [1] 3.6 Tin - **Price and Market**: Funds have pushed up tin prices. LME tin reached a maximum of $41,000, and SHFE tin weighted price reached a maximum of 323,800 yuan. The short - term price fluctuations have increased. [1] - **Supply**: Indonesia's tin exports in November decreased. The situation in the Congo is uncertain. Domestic tin production may decline slightly in December. The real - world supply of tin ore is tight, and the cost of recycled materials is fluctuating. [1] - **Demand**: There are no bright spots in traditional fields, and the demand highlight is high - end semiconductor products. Domestic spot trading has deepened, and social inventory has increased. [1] - **Outlook**: In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, the probability of an increase in supply is high, and the recovery speed may be faster than demand. Attention should be paid to high - position risks. [1] 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market**: Last week, lithium carbonate futures adjusted, with active short - selling in the market. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has slightly corrected. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall demand remains strong. In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to perform well. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand. The overall inventory of downstream battery and material factories is flat or slightly reduced. [1] - **Inventory**: The total market inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 113,600 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 3600 tons to 21,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1700 tons to 44,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen sharply from a high level, with large market differences. The fundamentals are generally strong, and the short - side is relatively tight. [1] 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The main contract of industrial silicon S12601 showed a weak downward trend in the range of 8900 - 9030 yuan/ton this week. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Xinjiang has dropped to 9000 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply**: The total production of industrial silicon in December is expected to slightly decline to 396,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%. Some enterprises plan to slightly reduce the supply volume. [1] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 800 tons to 558,000 tons, with an increase in both general and delivery warehouses. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the lower limit of the range. The inventory reduction at the end of the year is still under pressure. If the actual production reduction of local factories is limited, the price may further decline. [1] 3.9 Polysilicon - **Price**: Last week, the main contract of polysilicon reached a high of 59,200 yuan/ton due to the expectation of warehouse receipts. The expansion of delivery brands may suppress bullish sentiment. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The output in November was 114,600 tons, lower than expected. In December, it is expected to slightly decline. Battery and silicon wafer enterprises have reduced production. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 291,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened, but the price may still be strong after a brief negative impact if the registered quantity of warehouse receipts is lower than expected. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor intensity of the black and chemical sectors declined, while the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The cross - sectionally stronger sector is non - ferrous, and the weaker ones are chemicals and agricultural products. The overall signal for commodities this week is a combination of long and short positions in different sectors and factors [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Overall Situation - The proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly this week. The factor intensity of the black and chemical sectors declined, and the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The cross - sectionally stronger sector is non - ferrous, and the weaker ones are chemicals and agricultural products [3]. Specific Sector Analysis Non - ferrous Metals - Gold's time - series momentum declined, silver's trading volume remained at a high level, and the cross - sectional divergence widened. The short - term momentum of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, the cross - sectional momentum divergence narrowed, and copper and zinc were strong while tin was weak in the cross - section [3]. Black Metals - The term structure showed narrowing divergence. The trading volumes of coking coal and coke remained at low levels, and the short - term momentum of iron ore reversed and declined [3]. Energy and Chemicals - The long - term momentum factor declined, and ethylene glycol was at the short end of the cross - section [3]. Agricultural Products - The cross - sectional divergence of oilseeds and meals narrowed, and the trading volume of soybean oil decreased marginally [3]. Strategy Net Worth and Fundamental Factors Commodities - The demand factor weakened by 0.01%, the inventory factor increased by 0.36%, the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.01%, and the comprehensive signal this week was short. For methanol, the domestic production capacity utilization rate was flat, the demand side's long - position strength weakened to neutral, the inventory side signaled short - positions, and the spread side was slightly long [3]. Float Glass - Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week's comprehensive signal was long. The supply, demand, and inventory sides signaled long - positions, the spread side was neutral, and the profit side continued to signal short - positions [9]. Iron Ore - Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week's comprehensive signal changed from long to short. The supply, demand, inventory, and spread sides all had changes in their signals, with the overall trend turning bearish [11]. Lead - Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.46%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.5%, the spread factor weakened by 0.33%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%, and this week's comprehensive signal remained short. The supply side's long - position feedback further weakened, the inventory side's short - position feedback weakened, and the spread side's short - position signal intensity increased [11].