Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for upward/downward trend but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend, poor operability on the trading floor, and it is advisable to wait and see) [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, inventory changes, and supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding investment advice based on different metal characteristics and market situations [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper increased in position and reached a new high. The price of spot copper rose to 93,675 yuan. The discount of Shanghai copper widened to 195 yuan, and that of Guangdong copper was 75 yuan. The premium of Yangshan copper slightly increased to 48 dollars. SMM social inventory increased to 168,400 tons, a weekly increase of nearly 4,000 tons. There is still an expectation of production rush by domestic smelters this month. The copper price is approaching the target of 12,000 dollars. Hold a small number of long positions with a support level of 92,500 yuan [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum opened higher and then fell slightly. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China widened. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 22,000 tons and that of aluminum rods by 3,000 tons. The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. The social inventory fluctuates within a narrow range, and the apparent demand is not outstanding. In the short term, the market is macro - driven, and the bullish sentiment continues. The price of Shanghai aluminum mainly follows the upward trend. Hold long positions with the 40 - day moving average as the support and pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 increased by 100 yuan to 21,300 yuan. The inventory and exchange warehouse receipts of the cast - aluminum industry fluctuate within a narrow range. Tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. Driven by the macro environment, the cast - aluminum alloy has limited ability to follow the upward trend at a high level. The supply of alumina is in an over - supply situation, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The cost of alumina has room to decline. Before large - scale production cuts, alumina is mainly weak, and the decline of the spot price is more certain due to the large basis [3] Zinc - Intraday, long positions were slightly replenished. The weighted daily position of Shanghai zinc increased by 1,508 lots to 195,000 lots, and the price stood firm above the upper edge of the previous consolidation range, remaining in an upward trend. LME zinc inventory accumulated to 100,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot discount was 30.61 dollars/ton. The capital squeeze atmosphere subsided, and the zinc export window closed. In late December, more domestic smelters carried out maintenance. Downstream consumption declined temporarily due to environmental protection control in the north, but overall, it still showed resilience. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [4] Lead - The overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. Domestic primary lead smelters that had previously carried out maintenance are gradually resuming production. The consumption side has both positive and negative factors, and the upward momentum of lead is weak. The TC of lead concentrate remains stable at a low level, the price of waste batteries stops falling, and the cost support for recycled lead is still strong. The refined - scrap price difference is 50 yuan/ton. The domestic lead inventory is low, and the position and volume pressure need to be tracked. It is expected that Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - On Monday, the price of Shanghai nickel rose sharply, and the market trading was active. The market performance was mainly due to the stop - loss of industrial short positions, and the irrational trend is expected to have limited sustainability. The news from the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association last week triggered a stir in the nickel market. In 2026, the nickel ore quota will be reduced to 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 380 million tons quota in 2025, and the mineral benchmark price formula will be revised at the beginning of 2026. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 6,700 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 175 yuan. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel fell slightly, and the price of high - nickel pig iron is 888 yuan per nickel point. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increased by 260 tons to 59,000 tons, the nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 927,000 tons. It is advisable to wait for the end of the market fluctuation and mainly wait and see in the short term [7] Tin - The position of Shanghai tin decreased, and the price fluctuated greatly in both directions during the session. The price of spot tin rose to 340,600 yuan, with a real - time discount of 1,230 yuan to the 2501 contract. In November, the import volume of tin concentrate in China continued to recover. The supply from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Myanmar continued to increase. According to the average price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in November, the supply of Myanmar ore has recovered to 820 metal tons, recording the second - highest monthly import volume this year. Pay attention to the possible mining conference in low - grade areas around the New Year. High tin prices continue to suppress consumption. In terms of inventory, LME tin inventory increased by 975 tons to 4,645 tons last week, and the LME 0 - 3 - month contract turned to a discount of 11 dollars. The SMM social inventory in China increased by 732 tons to 9,192 tons. The inventories in both markets are high. The market shows strong resonance between position and volume, and the high - level risk is emphasized [8] Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate rose again and fluctuated. The market trading was active. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 99,000 yuan, and the price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade is 2,650 yuan. The high increase in the price of lithium carbonate has led to the continuous rise of lithium ore prices. However, due to the lack of confidence in maintaining high lithium carbonate prices in the market, the trading enthusiasm at the current high level is limited. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,500 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 1,300 tons to 51,000 tons. The sentiment in the middle - stream link is high, and the spot side shows some support. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 1,385 dollars, and the ore - price quotation remains strong. The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuates strongly, the fundamentals are generally strong, and short positions are relatively disadvantaged [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. According to SMM, some silicon enterprises in the north have the intention to cut production but have not implemented it yet. In terms of weekly output, the output in Xinjiang decreased slightly, the output in other northwest regions remained stable, and the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan remained unchanged. On the demand side, the average price of silicone increased to 13,600 yuan/ton, and the weekly output of DMC increased slightly. The weekly output of polysilicon continued to decline, the operating rate remained at 41 - 42%, and the factory inventory increased to 306,300 tons (according to Baichuan Yingfu). The profit performance is good. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of industrial silicon is about 553,000 tons, with a decrease of 800 tons (SMM). The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, the factory inventories in Yunnan and Xinjiang have all increased. Overall, the fundamentals of industrial silicon are still under pressure. It shows a relatively strong performance due to the expectation of production cuts before the end of the month, but the upward space is limited at present [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures increased the minimum number of opening lots. On Monday, the position decreased and the price corrected, closing at 58,845 yuan/ton. The market trading cooled down. In the spot market, some enterprises significantly increased their quotations, but there is no actual transaction follow - up, and the upstream and downstream are in continuous game. In terms of news, the production quota in 2026 may be significantly tightened, which may affect market sentiment. In December in the short term, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and the factory inventory of polysilicon remains at a high level of 293,000 tons. The warehouse receipts increased slightly last week. If the futures price fails to effectively break through 60,000 yuan/ton, it will continue to fluctuate. The operation should mainly focus on risk prevention [11]

Report Information - Report Name: Energy Daily [3] - Date: December 22, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Wang Yingmin (Intermediate Analyst, F3066912 Z0016785), Li Haiqun (Intermediate Analyst, F03107558 Z0021515) [3] - Contact: 010 - 58747784, gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn [3] Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★★★ (Red, indicating a clear upward - trending investment opportunity) [2] - Fuel Oil: ★★★ (Red, indicating a clear upward - trending investment opportunity) [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★★★ (Red, indicating a clear upward - trending investment opportunity) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Red, indicating a clear upward - trending investment opportunity) [2] Core Views - The continuous escalation of tensions between the US and Venezuela has increased market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, causing Brent crude oil prices to exceed $60/barrel. The domestic crude - oil related product market sentiment has warmed up [4]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the current Middle - East exports remain high with sufficient overall supply, while geopolitical situations may be the main variable. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the medium - term supply tends to be loose, and the market is expected to be under pressure [5]. - In January 2026, the refinery production plan for asphalt is 1060000 tons, showing significant declines both month - on - month and year - on - year. Affected by the Venezuela situation, the market expects the long - term asphalt raw material supply to tighten, and the cost - side support drives the BU price to rebound [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On December 21, US personnel intercepted and inspected a third oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela. The escalating US - Venezuela tensions have increased market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, and Brent crude oil prices have exceeded $60/barrel. The domestic crude - oil related product market has a bullish sentiment [4]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: The Middle - East exports remain high with sufficient overall supply. However, geopolitical situations may be the main variable, with a decline in Russian shipments. The tense US - Venezuela relations and potential new US sanctions on Russia may affect high - sulfur raw materials. The market is expected to fluctuate between medium - term supply loosening and short - term geopolitical impacts [5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The medium - term supply tends to be loose. The supply of low - sulfur heavy raw materials in East Africa is expected to gradually recover, overseas key refineries are复产, and some RFCC units are entering the maintenance period, which may lead to a marginal increase in low - sulfur supply, putting pressure on the market [5]. Asphalt - In January 2026, the refinery production plan for asphalt is 1060000 tons, with significant month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The demand in the northern market is flat, while that in the eastern market is stable. Affected by the Venezuela situation, the market expects the long - term asphalt raw material supply to tighten, and the cost - side support drives the BU price to rebound [6]

国投 斯特 《2025年11月石脑油船期月报》 2025/12/22 国投期货研究院化工组 庞春艳 Z0011355 王雪忆 Z0023574 11月俄罗斯发运量787.22万桶，环比减少37.84%；中东地区发运量3942.8万桶，环比下降11.03%；美国装船量 592.15万桶，环比减少1.77%；发运总量较上月减少978.71万桶，环比下降15.53%。各大区中总到港量最高的 地区为东北亚，到港量为2679.48万桶。 上月中国石脑油到港量为920.97万桶，环比减少124.99万桶，其中来自 市场概览 中东地区的进口占比最高，为41.4%，其次为东北亚，占比15.6%。上月来自中东、地中海和北非的货源量有所 减少，来自东北亚的进口量有所增加。 | | 俄罗斯发运 | 中东发运 | 美国发运 | 东北亚-中国 | 中东-中国 | 俄罗斯-中国 | 南亚-中国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年9月 | 1022.45 | 4243.27 | 553.88 | 166.4 | 348.72 | 126.33 | 159. ...

Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: December 22, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 3.04%, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12%. The liquidity environment is generally favorable, and the commodity market may run stably in the short - term [2][6]. - The dovish interest rate hike in Japan supported the US dollar index, but after the release of US economic and inflation data last week, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, and short - term US dollar liquidity may remain stable. In China, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment and social retail sales slowed down in November, and economic growth continued to slow down moderately [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. The precious metals sector may be volatile and bullish; the non - ferrous metals sector may run stably; the black sector may fluctuate; the energy sector may fluctuate; the chemical sector's rebound space may be limited; and the agricultural products (oilseeds) sector may fluctuate [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week. The black, precious metals, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous sectors rose by 3.04%, 1.9%, 0.91%, and 0.79% respectively, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12% [2][6]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were coking coal (9%), coke (8.31%), and PTA (4.45%); the top - losing varieties were rapeseed oil (- 6.45%), soybean oil (- 3.53%), and apples (- 3.36%) [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with only the agricultural product and precious metals sectors showing mainly declining volatility [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale decreased slightly last week, and the non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and black sectors all had net capital outflows [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data last week showed an economic cooling trend, and the November CPI data decline exceeded expectations. The core CPI reached a new low since March 2021. Fed Chair candidates Hasset and Waller believe there is still room for interest rate cuts. The sector may be volatile and bullish in the short - term [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Overseas economic data is weak, interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar index is under pressure, with the macro environment generally positive. The inventory continued to decline last week, but the decline rate narrowed, and the spot premium was mainly weakening. However, there is still a risk of smelting contraction. The sector may run stably in the short - term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, the decline in hot metal production is still large, but steel mill profits are showing marginal improvement, and the production - cut trend may slow down. For raw materials, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume rebounded; the total coking coal inventory increased slightly. After the oversold rebound, the market sentiment has become cautious, and the sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: The Berlin negotiation between the US and Ukraine last week was very positive, leading to market concerns that an agreement may increase the supply pressure of Russian oil. EIA data showed that although crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline and distillate oil inventories increased unexpectedly. The supply - loose pattern always puts pressure on oil prices. However, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical issue may bring phased risk premiums. Oil prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester varieties, the expectation of tight supply led to a significant increase in PX positions and price. Stimulated by raw material price increases, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices, and polyester filament inventory decreased. The short - term polyester start - up rate will be maintained, but it is expected to decline later due to mid - line inventory accumulation and the Spring Festival factor. The short - term cost support is strong, but the rebound space may be limited under the background of a downward demand period [4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Recently, the weather in South America has continued to improve, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter of next year is 68%. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean futures price has fallen back to the previous bottom range, and soybean meal may follow the adjustment in the short - term. The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, and the weak rapeseed oil has also led to the weakening of soybean and palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil market still faces high inventory pressure. Although the production decreased month - on - month in November, the decline was small, and the demand was even worse. The oilseeds sector may fluctuate in the short - term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with the total return of gold ETFs at 0.07%. The returns of individual gold ETFs such as Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF and Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF were 1.16% and 0.98% respectively [38]. - The energy - chemical ETF (Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF) had a return of 2.71% [38]. - The soybean meal ETF (Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return of - 1.32% [38]. - The non - ferrous ETF (Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metals Futures ETF) had a return of - 0.66% [38]. - The silver fund (Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return of 3.47% [38]. - The total return of commodity ETFs was 0.24% [38].

黑金研投团队 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 研究院 曹颖 Z0012043 2025/12/22 掘金快报 大连商品交易所于 2025 年 12 月 19 日发布公告，对焦煤期货合约及业务细则进行修改，并 将河北省唐山市、天津市的指定交割仓库升贴水由 170 元/吨下调为 140 元/吨，上述调整自 JM2701 合约开始实施。此前在征求意见稿阶段，我们就已经梳理过修改前后的指标要求变化， 再次罗列如下表。 | 标准品/替代品质量要求 | 旧标准 | 新标准 | | --- | --- | --- | | CSR | [60%,65%)，≥65%升价 80 | ≥65.0%，[60.0%,65.0%)扣价 50 | | (1.30%,1.60%] | 每升高 0.01%，扣价 5 | 每升高 0.01%，扣价 2.5 | | 硫分 [0.70%,1.30%) | 每降低 0.01%，升价 2.5 | 每降低 0.01%，升价 1.5 | | 全水分 | 水分（Mt）≤8.0%，水分 （Mt）>8.0%的，每 100 手折 算后重量=6000（吨）×（1- | 全水分（Mt）≤8.0%，全水分 （Mt）>8.0%的， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **2025 Review**: In 2025, Trump's reforms led to a weakening of the US dollar, and the difficulties in managing US dollar liquidity contributed to the rise of TACO trading. China maintained credit expansion and asset price prosperity due to the decline in external financial headwinds. However, the transmission from credit expansion to inflation was slow, and the economic structure showed a clear "virtual - real" divide [6][9]. - **2026 Outlook**: The key point in 2026 is whether the US can effectively maintain the stability of its yield curve. The pressure on US liquidity management may catalyze international cooperation and policy coordination. China's macro - policies aim to tap economic potential and expand domestic demand, promoting price recovery and the maturation of new productive forces [7]. - **2026 Asset Outlook**: In 2026, the operation of major asset classes will likely transition from the "recovery" to the "expansion" quadrant. The RMB is likely to appreciate with attention to the appreciation rhythm. Treasury bonds will remain in a volatile market. The stock market is expected to shift from valuation - driven to profit - driven, and domestic commodities will gradually bottom out and move upward [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - economic and Major Asset Performance Review 1.1 Global Economy - In 2025, the US dollar was initially strong under the "Trump trade" expectation but weakened due to challenges in the offshore financial system. The Fed's attempts to control the "loose" rhythm led to on - shore liquidity tensions. The difficulty in balancing US dollar liquidity formed the basis of TACO trading. The global economic cycle supported a slight weakening of the US dollar [9][10]. 1.2 Chinese Economy - China's economy in 2025 was characterized by the repair of credit factors. With a weakening US dollar index, China maintained a loose monetary policy and increased fiscal deficits. The steepening of the Chinese bond yield curve was significant for credit expansion. However, the transmission from credit to inflation was blocked, and the economic structure showed a "virtual - real" divide [16][17]. 1.3 Policy Framework - In 2025, complex geopolitical games and domestic economic policies were interlinked. The Fed adopted a gradual easing policy to avoid excessive weakness of the US dollar. China's macro - policies were introduced gradually, focusing on maintaining external balance and shifting towards "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" [23][28]. 2. Outlook for 2026 2.1 Policy Logic: US Policy Constraints 2.1.1 Fed's Constraints - The Fed faces increasing difficulty in controlling the yield curve. After the Silicon Valley Bank shock, the Fed tried to repair the inverted yield curve. However, in H2 2025, due to the low level of RRP, the Fed had to stop shrinking its balance sheet [30][31]. 2.1.2 US Fiscal Constraints - The US fiscal deficit is expected to remain at around 6% of GDP in 2026. The OBBBA - related tax - refund policy will widen the deficit gap in H1, but it may be offset by increased tariff revenues. The US Treasury may continue to issue more short - term bonds, and the Fed is expected to purchase over $400 billion of short - term bonds in 2026 [33][40]. 2.1.3 Summary - The Fed needs to cooperate with the US Treasury to maintain the stability of the yield curve. The management of the US Treasury yield curve is not only related to domestic policy trade - offs but also to international games and cooperation [47]. 2.2 Macro - game Coordinate System: Yield Curve and US Dollar Combination 2.2.1 Yield Curve Steepening Scenarios - **Scenario A (Steep Yield Curve, Weak US Dollar)**: A controllable steep yield curve and a weak US dollar can bring positive effects such as alleviating inflation pressure and promoting global economic recovery. However, an uncontrollable steep yield curve may lead to debt selling pressure. The positive scenario is of high probability, while the negative scenario is of low probability [50][57][62]. - **Scenario B (Steep Yield Curve, Strong US Dollar)**: If the Fed successfully controls the yield curve and the confidence in the US dollar is restored, it can lead to a positive scenario. A crisis - mode scenario is of low probability [63][65]. 2.2.2 Yield Curve Flattening Scenarios - **Scenario C (Flat Yield Curve, Strong US Dollar)**: A controllable flat yield curve and a strong US dollar can reflect the Fed's management ability. A rapid inversion of the yield curve is a low - probability negative scenario [66][68][69]. - **Scenario D (Flat Yield Curve, Weak US Dollar)**: A smooth decline of the yield curve and a weak US dollar can benefit non - US economies. A rapid inversion of the yield curve and a weak US dollar is a low - probability negative scenario [70][72]. 2.2.3 Summary - Managing the yield curve is crucial in 2026. The benchmark scenarios are those where the US Treasury bond can strengthen steadily or the yield curve steepens significantly in H1 and then declines controllably [73][74][76]. 2.3 Cycle Operation: Sino - US Policy Interaction from a Cycle Perspective 2.3.1 Cycle Positioning - Since 2023, the global inventory cycle has lost elasticity. In 2024, the US inventory cycle started to bottom out, and in 2025, China's inventory cycle also reached a low point. In 2026, the global cycle will progress further, and China's inventory cycle will play a more important role [77][80][84]. 2.3.2 Cycle Mechanism - The pressure from China's real - estate cycle and the US's restrictive policies has affected the global inventory cycle. The increasing pressure on US financial market liquidity has promoted Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and laid the foundation for geopolitical and economic stability in 2026 [89][91][94]. 2.3.3 China's Policy Choices - In 2026, China's macro - policies will remain positive, focusing on tapping economic potential and integrating policies. The main focuses are "dual - carbon leadership", "anti - involution", and stabilizing the real - estate market [95]. 3. Major Asset Classes 3.1 Major Asset Coordinate System - The coordinate system for major assets is constructed from the dimensions of real supply - demand and price elasticity. In 2026, major assets are likely to move from the lower - left quadrant to the upper - left quadrant, and the management of the US yield curve and the trend of the US dollar will affect the process [97][100][104]. 3.2 Analysis of Various Assets - **Exchange Rate**: The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately first and then enter a range - bound fluctuation, with a possible range of 6.7 - 7.2. Key factors include the US dollar index and the implementation of domestic demand - stimulating policies [105]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds will remain in a volatile market. If the interest rate is cut by 10bp, the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9%. In an optimistic scenario, with a 20bp cut, the range will be 1.55% - 1.85% [106]. - **Stock Market**: The stock market is expected to shift from valuation - driven to profit - driven, with a positive outlook of oscillating upward [107]. - **Commodities**: The commodity market will operate in a pattern of "liquidity support, cycle resonance, and structural differentiation". It may experience wide - range fluctuations in H1 and a "re - inflation" - driven recovery in H2 if policies are effective [115].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Equity still has allocation value, waiting for the conversion from valuation-driven to earnings-driven [6] - In 2026, the basis central tendency may rise slightly, but the volatility remains relatively high [7] - In 2026, the equity market is expected to shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven in the benchmark scenario [8] Summary according to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review and Macroeconomic Outlook - **A-share Market Review**: In 2025, major broad-based indices all closed up, with the ChiNext 50 leading with a nearly 60% annual increase. Most sectors in the CITIC primary industry index closed up, with the communication index leading with an over 80% increase. The share of equity ETFs increased, and northbound capital and margin trading funds were active [9][17][24] - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: In 2026, overseas liquidity may remain loose, and Sino-US economic and trade relations are in a phase of relaxation. Domestically, policies will be more precise and targeted, with fiscal policy remaining proactive and monetary policy staying moderately loose. Growth factors are expected to improve, and inflation is expected to rise moderately, driving the PPI to recover and improving corporate profitability [27][28][30] 2. Valuation and Drivers - **Steady Return of Chinese Capital Pricing Power**: The influence of US Treasury yields on A-share valuations is gradually weakening, while the impact of Chinese Treasury yields on the growth style is increasing, indicating a strengthening of the pricing power of Chinese Treasury yields for growth stocks [33][38] - **Current Valuation's Historical Position and Horizontal Comparison**: The PE of the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices is at the 64% and 35% historical quantiles respectively, not in a high range. Compared with global indices, A-shares are not expensive. The "Buffett Index" also suggests that the A-share market still has investment value [42][46][50] - **Dividend Yield and Risk Premium**: There is a "seesaw" relationship between the 10-year Chinese Treasury yield and the dividend yield of the dividend index. Currently, the stock market still has strong allocation cost-effectiveness, and the benchmark scenario for the index's upward drive in 2026 is expected to shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven [53][59][63] - **Earnings Growth as a Strong Support for Relatively Strong Indices**: Earnings growth supports the relative strength of corresponding indices. In 2025, the earnings and revenue of small-cap and growth-style indices recovered faster, corresponding to the market style of small-cap growth [64][67][70] 3. Investor Structure and Basis Central Tendency Outlook - **2025 Basis Review**: In 2025, the basis central tendency of most futures index varieties continued to decline, with increased volatility in April. The influence of investor structure changes on the basis is significant, with the basis weakening in the first quarter and the basis central tendency of IC and IM contracts being lower than in previous years in the second half of the year [80] - **Changes in the Position of Public Funds in the Market Investor Structure**: Since 2022, the long-hedging power of public funds has gradually emerged and is currently stronger than the short-hedging power [88] - **Impact of Off-exchange Product Hedging on the Futures Index Basis**: The scale of off-exchange derivatives represented by snowball products decreased significantly in 2025, and their hedging impact is weaker than in the past two years. The long-substitution strategy of public funds is gradually emerging, and the relaxation of the futures index position limit of public funds may make them an important variable in observing the futures index investor structure [79][90] 4. Operation Outlook and Response - **Operation Outlook Scenario Analysis and Market Characteristics**: The benchmark scenario for the 2026 market is that the equity market shifts from valuation-driven to earnings-driven. There are also three other scenarios: earnings and valuation double-driven strength, valuation drag on weakness, and double weakness in earnings and valuation with risk warnings [114][118][119] - **Response Strategies under Different Scenarios**: Under the benchmark scenario, consider long-hedging when the basis is relatively weak. In the stronger scenario, reduce short-hedging. In the weaker scenario, lock in lower short-hedging costs. In the double-weak scenario, increase short-hedging [121][122]

Report Structure - The report includes sections on the macro clock four - factor dual - channel model and the equity market and Barra style factors [3] Performance Comparison - The risk - parity portfolio has an annualized return of 4.21%, an annualized volatility of 1.00%, an annualized downside volatility of 0.59%, a maximum drawdown of - 0.93%, a Sharpe ratio of 4.23, a Calmar ratio of 4.55, and a Sortino ratio of 7.09. The CSI FOF fund has an annualized return of 1.55%, an annualized volatility of 6.07%, an annualized downside volatility of 4.26%, a maximum drawdown of - 18.41%, a Sharpe ratio of 0.26, a Calmar ratio of 0.08, and a Sortino ratio of 0.41 [16] Sub - sections in the Report Macro Clock Four - Factor Dual - Channel Model - It contains a review of macro factors and the risk - parity portfolio [3] Equity Market and Barra Style Factors - It includes a review of equity market styles and an equity style timing strategy [3]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 周末消息称乌军袭击了一座位于里海菲拉诺夫斯基油气田的油气钻井平台,该平台隶属俄罗斯卢克 石油公司，负责石油和天然气生产。关于该平台的受损程度和后续运行能力尚待评估。原油市场潜 在利好依然围绕在委内瑞拉和俄乌地缘问题上,在地缘风险进一步发酵前，已经对她缘风险升温定 价后的油价重回承压状态。 (责金属) 上周美国非农印证就业下行风险,核心CPI则创2021年3月以来新低,数据整体有利于降息的延续。 俄乌和平谈判进展缓慢，俄官员称俄美乌三方会谈尚未提上日程。以色列和伊朗间再现紧张氛围。 贵金属偏强趋势维持,黄金在历史高位测试阻力,如能实现突破则责金属表现有望强化。 【铜】 上周五铜价阳线震荡，短期均线支撑韧性强，仓量仍易支持涨势。明年一季度全球精矿供应难以明 显复供，国内统厂加工费长单0水平。周内关注国内现铜及升贴水变动，上周上海贴水160元，广东 升水仅余20元。市场高持仓,跨年多配冲高潜力仍在，少量多单依托9.2万持有。 (铝) 周五夜盘有色整体强势,沪铝逼近月初高点。近期铝市矛盾有限,社库窄幅波动,表观消费尚可, 沪铝5月以来上行形态稳固,短 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - Steel market has weak domestic demand, high exports, and is expected to fluctuate in a range [2] - Iron ore market has a loose supply-demand situation and is expected to fluctuate [3] - Coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon supply, and prices are likely to fluctuate [4][5] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by various factors and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel saw a slight recovery in apparent demand and production, with continued inventory reduction; hot-rolled coil had a double decline in supply and demand, and inventory reduction accelerated slightly [2] - Iron water production continued to decline, supply pressure eased, and steel mill profits improved marginally [2] - Real estate investment decline expanded, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth slowed, and domestic demand remained weak [2] - Steel exports remained high, and the impact of license management needed to be observed [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments increased month-on-month and were stronger than the same period last year, and domestic arrivals rebounded [3] - Port inventories continued to accumulate, with Australian ore increasing and Brazilian ore decreasing [3] - Terminal demand was low in the off-season, steel mill profitability was poor, and iron water production decreased significantly [3] Coke - The third round of coke price cuts was partially implemented, and daily production decreased slightly [4] - Coke inventory decreased slightly, downstream procurement was on a small scale as needed, and traders' procurement willingness was average [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions were okay, and terminal inventories increased [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and production-side inventory increased slightly [5] Silicon Manganese - Manganese ore spot prices increased due to the rebound in the futures market [6] - Manganese ore port inventory had a structural problem, and the balance was relatively fragile [6] - Silicon manganese production increased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate [6] Ferrosilicon - The market expected an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which led to a decline in power costs and semi-coke prices [7] - Terminal demand was low, and steel mill profitability was poor, and iron water production decreased significantly [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased, and inventory increased slightly [7]