Tabl e_Title 2025 年 6 月 16 日 大类资产运行周报（20250609-20250613） 地缘冲突升温 国际油价短期攀升 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 0.60% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.35% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.81% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.78% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.90% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 -1.07% | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 2.99% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 4.86% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（202 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bullish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bullish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term bullish and bearish trends are in a relatively balanced state, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The copper market is affected by the reduction of production targets at the Congo's KK mine, which will reduce the increase in copper concentrate this year. Short - term bears can hold positions after roll - over [2] - The aluminum market has a strong short - term upward trend, but there are concerns about negative feedback in the off - season. There may be opportunities to buy AD and short AL in the casting aluminum alloy market. Alumina futures are weak and should be shorted on rebounds [3] - The zinc market is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a supply - demand imbalance. High - level short positions should be held [4] - The nickel and stainless - steel market is bearish, and short positions should be followed [7] - The tin market is in a situation of tight supply of concentrates and weak supply - demand. Some short positions can be reduced or moved to far - month contracts [8] - The lithium carbonate market is in a short - term shock due to slowed price decline of Australian ore and increased production in the middle - stream [9] - The industrial silicon market has increased supply pressure and weak demand, and short positions can be lightly established [10] - The polysilicon market has increased inventory pressure and is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend [11] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, the afternoon session of Shanghai copper futures saw an expanded decline, with the main contract falling to 78,000 yuan. The spot copper price was 7,895 yuan, and the premium in Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. The G7 meeting over the weekend focused on US - allied tariff news. Ivanhoe lowered the production target of the Congo's KK mine to 37 - 420,000 tons, reducing the increase in copper concentrate by at least 100,000 tons. Short - term bears should hold positions after roll - over [2] Aluminum and Alumina - The squeeze - out market of Shanghai aluminum has intensified, with a large increase in the monthly spread. The strong inventory reduction in the aluminum market supports the near - month contracts, while concerns about seasonal demand decline and pre - export suppress the far - month contracts. After filling the previous gap, Shanghai aluminum has broken through. Attention should be paid to when the off - season negative feedback will be realized. The far - month contracts of casting aluminum alloy remain volatile. The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised by 100 yuan to 19,600 yuan. The supply of alumina has high elasticity after profit recovery, and the futures market remains weak. The price of Guinea ore is stable at $75, corresponding to a cost of about 3,000 yuan in Shanxi. It's not advisable to chase short positions due to a large futures discount [3] Zinc - Due to geopolitical tensions, the external market has weakened significantly. The spot import loss has narrowed, and low - priced imported ingots have impacted the domestic spot market. Coupled with the domestic supply - demand imbalance, Shanghai zinc has experienced a sharp decline. The weighted position has increased by 22,900 lots to 300,000 lots, and the settled funds have reached 5.833 billion yuan. The average price of SMM 0 zinc has dropped by 70 yuan to 22,240 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. As the delivery approaches, the exchange warehouse receipts have increased to 8,972 tons. High - level short positions should be held [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has declined slowly, and market trading is dull. The spot premium is stable, with the far - month contracts being stronger. The Philippine Congress has removed the ban on raw ore exports from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill. The loading progress of Philippine nickel mines has been delayed. The price of downstream NPI has stopped falling and stabilized, but domestic NPI smelters are still seriously in deficit. The high - nickel iron is priced at 953 yuan per nickel point, showing some resistance at low levels. Nickel iron inventory has increased, and the surplus is mainly concentrated in the stainless - steel segment. Technically, Shanghai nickel is under pressure, and short positions should be followed [7] Tin - Shanghai tin has fluctuated and declined. The spot tin price is 265,600 yuan, with a premium of 740 yuan to the 2506 contract as the delivery approaches. The supply of tin concentrates is expected to remain tight for a longer time. In the context of weak supply - demand, attention should be paid to the current price and wait for the social inventory data. Some short positions can be reduced or moved to far - month contracts [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate has shown narrow - range fluctuations, and market trading is average. The overall market inventory is stable at a high level. The inventory in the intermediate link has increased, but the downstream restocking and upstream destocking have not been sustained. The price decline of Australian ore has slowed down, and the production in the middle - stream has increased by 7% month - on - month. Technically, the decline of lithium carbonate futures has slowed down, and it is in a short - term shock [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures have declined with reduced positions, closing at 7,345 yuan/ton. The spot price has stabilized. After the resumption of production of large enterprises in Xinjiang, the subsequent production may increase, and the monthly supply pressure has increased. Although the downstream demand has improved marginally, the high - level social inventory pattern is difficult to change. Technically, the bullish sentiment has cooled down, and short positions can be lightly established [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures have declined with increased positions, closing at 33,695 yuan/ton. The spot price has been lowered, with the average price of SMM's N - type re - feed material at 36,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some polysilicon enterprises have resumed production, and the total production in June has increased to 101,000 tons, while the downstream silicon wafer production has been reduced by about 2GW. The inventory pressure has increased, and the market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend [11]

Group 1: Energy and Related Products - International oil prices rose significantly last week due to the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with the Brent 08 contract up 12.8% for the week. Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. Investors can hold low - cost call options and consider short positions after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [1] - Gold prices were supported by the Israel - Iran military confrontation. The market is awaiting the Fed's meeting guidance this week. After gold returned to a historical high, caution is advised [2] - Geopolitical conflicts led to the strengthening of oil prices, and domestic oil product futures followed suit. High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to weaken, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be under pressure [20] - Due to the impact of geopolitical risks, the price of asphalt followed the rise of crude oil but underperformed, and the crack spread fell sharply. The fundamentals support de - stocking, but the crack spread is under obvious pressure [21] - Geopolitical risks have further increased. The domestic LPG market is relatively more relaxed than the crude oil market. The market is in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of Middle East exports [22] Group 2: Base Metals - Last week, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, with inventories decreasing to 114,400 tons. This week, attention should be paid to the G7 meeting. Short - position holders should roll over to the 2508 contract [3] - The squeeze - out market of Shanghai aluminum has fermented, and the spread between months has widened significantly. The strong de - stocking in the aluminum market supports the strength of the near - month contract, while concerns about seasonal weakening of demand and pre - export suppress the performance of the far - month contract [4] - The far - month contract of cast aluminum alloy maintained a shock, and the spread structure was similar to that of Shanghai aluminum. During the off - season, there is still a possibility of the spread with Shanghai aluminum narrowing. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying ADC and shorting AL [5] - The northern spot price of alumina fell below 3,200 yuan last week. After the industry profit was repaired, the supply elasticity was large. Futures are recommended to be shorted on rebounds [6] - The fundamentals of zinc are expected to shift to increased supply and weak demand. Although the short - term low inventory provides some support, the market is still dominated by short - sellers [7] - The price of lead in Shanghai is under pressure at the 17,000 - yuan integer level. The slow resumption of recycled refined lead production supports the lead price. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8] - The price of nickel in Shanghai declined, and the market trading was dull. The spot premium was stable, and the far - month structure was relatively strong. Technically, short - selling should be followed [9] - Last Friday, LME tin rebounded and broke through the MA60 moving average, with inventories decreasing to 2,260 tons. The domestic tin market may shift to the export direction [10] Group 3: Chemical Products - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated narrowly. The overall market inventory was stable at a high level. The decline of the futures price slowed down, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock [11] - The industrial silicon futures decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot price tended to be stable. The supply pressure increased month - on - month, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [12] - The PVC market continues to have high supply and weak demand, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level. The price of caustic soda fell below the previous low, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [27] - The prices of PX and PTA loads continued to rise, while the weaving and dyeing start - up rate decreased, and terminal orders weakened. PTA's inventory accumulation pressure was slightly relieved [28] - The开工 of ethylene glycol increased, and the port inventory accumulated. The supply - demand relationship weakened slightly, and attention should be paid to the energy market [30] Group 4: Ferrous Metals and Related Products - On Friday night, steel prices strengthened. The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and the inventory de - stocking slowed down. The demand and production of hot - rolled coils both declined slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be in a short - term shock [13] - The iron ore market was volatile last week. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to be in a short - term shock [14] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coke rose last night. There is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [15] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coking coal rose last night. The total inventory increased slightly, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of silicon - manganese rose last Friday. The price of manganese ore is expected to decline further, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [17] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of ferrosilicon rose last Friday. The supply decreased, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Group 5: Agricultural Products - The USDA's June soybean supply - demand report was neutral. Affected by the Israel - Iran war, the price of US soybeans rose. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the market is expected to be in a shock [34] - The US EPA's proposed RFS policy is bullish for the soybean and related oil markets. The bottom of the US soybean and soybean oil prices is relatively firm, but there is an upward risk [35] - Affected by the US biodiesel policy and产区 weather, the prices of Canadian canola and canola oil rose. The market strategy remains bullish [36] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the impact of weather on prices [37] - The USDA's June corn report was slightly bullish. Affected by the wheat policy, the corn futures price is expected to be in a shock [38] - The price of live pigs futures rebounded on Friday. In the short term, the spot price is under downward pressure, while in the medium term, the far - end price has support [39] - The egg futures price rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pre - release of demand when the price is at a low level, but there is still a risk of price fluctuations [40] - The price of US cotton was volatile. The domestic cotton market was generally trading, and the market sentiment was not high. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [41] - The price of US sugar was in a shock. The supply of Brazilian sugar is expected to be relatively bearish. The domestic sugar market has less pressure, and the price is expected to be in a shock [42] - The price of apples was in a shock. The market demand declined, and the trading focus shifted to the new - season production estimate [43] Group 6: Others - The freight index of the container shipping (European line) was affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The impact on the European line market is limited. After the short - term sentiment fades, the far - month off - season is expected to return to a weak pattern [19] - The price of wood futures was weak. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [43] - The price of pulp futures was in a shock. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on significant pullbacks [44] - The A - share market declined unilaterally, and the futures index contracts all fell. The market risk preference was suppressed by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [45] - The bond market was bullish. The market expects the central bank to inject liquidity this month, and the bullish trend is expected to continue [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The June USDA cotton monthly report is bullish, but the new - year global supply remains relatively loose, and international cotton prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels. The current U.S. cotton is in the early growth stage with normal weather, and the subsequent weather conditions need to be continuously monitored. The performance of U.S. cotton demand is still weak, especially the new - year signing is still cautious, and the impact of Sino - U.S. relations on the new - year demand for U.S. cotton is significant [1][2] Summary by Related Content 2025/26 Annual Supply - Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: Global cotton production in 25/26 decreased by 178,000 tons month - on - month. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 6.532 million tons, while India's production decreased by 217,000 tons, the U.S. decreased by 109,000 tons, and Pakistan decreased by 65,000 tons. After the reduction in U.S. cotton production, it has reached a multi - year low. The harvested area was adjusted from 8.37 million acres to 8.19 million acres, and the yield per acre dropped from 832 pounds/acre to 820 pounds/acre [1] - **Consumption**: Global consumption in 25/26 decreased by 70,000 tons month - on - month. China's consumption remained unchanged, while India decreased by 109,000 tons, Bangladesh decreased by 22,000 tons, and Turkey decreased by 44,000 tons. Overall, global consumption is stable, but there are still many global trade conflicts [1] - **Imports**: Global cotton imports in 25/26 decreased by 1,000 tons month - on - month. Bangladesh, China, and Turkey reduced their imports by 22,000 tons, 109,000 tons, and 44,000 tons respectively, while Pakistan increased its imports by 65,000 tons. China ranks third in annual imports, lower than Bangladesh and Vietnam [2] - **Exports**: Brazil's exports increased by 65,000 tons, Australia's exports increased by 22,000 tons, and India's exports decreased by 109,000 tons [2] - **Ending Stocks**: Global ending stocks in 25/26 decreased by 344,000 tons month - on - month. China's ending stocks remained unchanged, while India, the U.S., Brazil, and Australia had changes of - 65,000 tons, - 196,000 tons, - 87,000 tons, and + 22,000 tons respectively. After the adjustment in the June report, the 25/26 global ending stocks are 107,000 tons lower than the 24/25 level [2] Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending stocks of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2025/26 - 6 months, as well as the monthly and annual changes [4]

| 11/11/2 | 国技斯特 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月13日 | | 爱两烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | PX | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | | | 短纤 | なな女 | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 甲醇 | なな女 | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | ★★★ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 文文文 纯碱 | | ★☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 中东地缘冲突导致国际油价大幅拉升,霍尔木兹海峡的航运安全风险增加,市场预期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The report presents a weekly overview of futures price and volume data for various commodity categories, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures. It shows the week - closing prices, weekly price changes, 20 - day annualized volatilities, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes of different futures varieties [2][4]. - Some varieties have significant price changes, such as crude oil with a 13.69% weekly increase and soda ash with a 4.62% weekly decrease. Volatility changes also vary widely among different commodities [2]. - Certain varieties have seen notable increases in positions, including asphalt, stainless steel, fuel oil, soybeans No.1, and eggs. And gold, crude oil, aluminum, zinc, and asphalt have attracted more capital attention [15][16]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Gold closed at 794.36 with a 1.42% weekly increase, 15.95% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 22.02% volatility change. Silver closed at 8,791.00 with a - 0.67% weekly decrease, 21.21% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 7.97% volatility change [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper closed at 78,010.00 with a - 1.17% weekly decrease, 8.11% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 17.27% volatility change. Nickel closed at 119,920.00 with a - 1.87% weekly decrease, 12.09% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 23.14% volatility change. Aluminum closed at 20,440.00 with a 1.84% weekly increase, 9.23% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 13.37% volatility change [2]. Black Metals - Iron ore closed at 703.00 with a - 0.64% weekly decrease, 13.93% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 34.02% volatility change. Coke closed at 1,349.50 with a - 0.07% weekly decrease, 27.00% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 6.66% volatility change [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil closed at 529.90 with a 13.69% weekly increase, 39.30% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 9.66% volatility change. Fuel oil closed at 3,205.00 with a 12.14% weekly increase, 36.15% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 26.73% volatility change [2]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans No.1 closed at 4,241.00 with a 3.39% weekly increase, 9.34% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 38.12% volatility change. Corn closed at 2,378.00 with a 1.62% weekly increase, 6.47% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 3.65% volatility change [2]. Livestock Products - Live pigs closed at 13,790.00 with a 2.45% weekly increase, 8.05% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 11.90% volatility change [3]. Financial Futures - IC closed at 5,729.00 with a 0.06% weekly increase, 11.41% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 13.26% volatility change. IF closed at 3,856.40 with a 0.03% weekly increase, 8.24% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 16.38% volatility change [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★, with a relatively more bullish indication [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks from the Israel - Iran conflict have caused a sharp rise in crude oil futures, and there is still room for trading geopolitical risks.虚值原油看涨期权 have hedging value, and short positions in futures can be considered after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [2] - In the context of the continuous fermentation of geopolitical conflicts, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil follow the upward trend of oil prices, but their fundamentals face challenges such as weak demand and increased supply [2] - The price of asphalt follows the rise of crude oil but lags behind, and its cracking spread has dropped significantly. There are still fundamental support factors, and investment opportunities can be considered after the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil is removed [3] - The price of LPG has a limited follow - up increase due to its high price - to - value ratio and loose fundamentals. It may fall back if there is no substantial impact on Middle - East exports, and the market will fluctuate widely [4] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - Recently, crude oil futures have soared, with the Brent 08 contract rising 4.3% in the Asian session and the SC07 contract rising 6.9% intraday. The risk of a large - scale conflict in the Middle East has materialized. Referring to the extreme - case pricing when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the upward target of the Brent near - month contract is around $80/barrel [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical conflicts have led to a continuous rise in oil prices, and the domestic fuel oil futures have followed suit, with the increase of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) greater than that of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU). The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still relatively low, and the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, while the demand is insufficient [2] Asphalt - The price of asphalt has followed the rise of crude oil but lags behind, and its cracking spread has fallen below the previous low. The subsequent increase in production by local refineries lacks momentum, and the increase in asphalt production by major refineries is expected to be limited. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The de - stocking trend is expected to continue [3] LPG - The price of LPG has a limited follow - up increase due to its high price - to - value ratio and loose fundamentals. If there is no substantial impact on Middle - East exports, it may fall back. The domestic chemical demand has increased, but the subsequent growth space is limited, and the inventory of terminals and refineries has increased. The market will fluctuate widely [4]

| | | | 11/11/11 | SDIC FUTURE | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月13日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 鐵硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。 本周螺纹表需继续下滑，产量同步回落，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求、产量均小幅回落，库存继续累积。铁 水产量逐步回落，整体仍处于相对高位，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看，基建改善幅度有限，地产销售复苏缺乏持续 性, 新开工、施工继续大幅下滑, 内需整体依然疲 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★☆☆ [1] - **豆粕**: ★★★ [1] - **豆油**: ★★★ [1] - **棕榈油**: ★★★ [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆ [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆ [1] - **玉米**: ★☆☆ [1] - **生猪**: ★★★ [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products including soybeans, corn, and livestock, considering factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policy. Different products face various market situations, and the report provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][7] Summary by Category 1. Soybeans - **Domestic Soybeans**: The domestic soybean main contract rebounded significantly. The tension in the Middle East and potential weather risks in the US may affect prices. Weather is expected to be the main factor driving price fluctuations during the growing season [2] - **Imported Soybeans**: There are risks of high temperature and low precipitation in the US soybean - growing months of July - August. With the tightened supply - demand balance of US soybeans, attention should be paid to weather - related price rebounds [2][6] 2. Soybean & Bean Meal - The USDA June soybean report was neutral. Dalian bean meal has been volatile recently. Although domestic soybean supply is increasing, the cost of imported Brazilian soybeans has risen, and the market is expected to be volatile [3] 3. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed meal had small fluctuations, and rapeseed oil prices rose. The USDA's adjustment to rapeseed supply - demand data had little impact. The prices of Canadian rapeseed and domestic rapeseed products are expected to have short - term upward space [4] 4. Corn - The USDA June report was neutral - positive for US new - season corn. Corn futures have been volatile. The price was affected by the wheat - corn substitution and future price differentials between them [7] 5. Livestock - **Pigs**: The hog futures rebounded, and the spot price was stable. In the short term, the spot price has downward pressure, while in the medium term, policy support may boost the far - end price [8] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded after a large - scale reduction in positions. The spot price continued to decline, and attention should be paid to potential demand increases when prices are low [9] 6. Vegetable Oils - **Palm Oil**: The price rose significantly but showed a trend of rising and then falling. The USDA report was neutral. The price is expected to be range - bound, with risks of suppression by US soybean weather speculation [6] - **Soybean Oil**: No specific independent analysis in the report, considered together with soybeans and related to the overall soybean market situation [3]

国投期货 环渤海港口高卡煤溢价 元/吨 2800 300 2700 | 蒙煤Q5500-Q5000(右) 蒙煤Q5500 蒙煤Q5000 2600 270 2500 2400 2300 240 2200 2100 2000 210 1900 1800 1700 180 1600 1500 1400 150 1300 1200 120 1100 1000 900 90 800 700 600 60 500 400 300 30 200 100 O 13:6 13:00 14:2 146 14:10 15:2 1:56 15:10 16:2 166 16:10 19:2 19:02 18:12 18:10 19:2 19:0 20:2 2016 20:00 21/2 21/6 21/0 23/2 23/6 23/0 24/2 24/6 21/0 2:02 25/ 層投期货 数据来源： mysteel，国投期货 国投票报 Inter ETS 11:5 原油:中美乐观预期&中东地缘风险 双双升温，狂飙行情能否延续? 旺季临近,6月热点品种精粹 (能源直播间) 2025年度 · 第4期 国投期货研究院 动力煤:中期底部 ...