Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various commodities, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price forecasts [2][3][4] - Different commodities show different trends, such as some in range - bound oscillations, some facing supply - demand imbalances, and others affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [14][20][21] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there is still a downward drive in the long - term. The market faces a greater inventory build - up expectation in Q4 and Q1 next year. The near - term risk is Russia's stance on the new peace plan [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight fuel oil prices rose due to cost - end increase. High - sulfur fuel oil may be supported by short - term supply disruptions, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken as the gasoline - diesel spread narrows [21] - **Asphalt**: Recent shipments in East and South China improved, and inventory declined. The December production plan decreased, and demand will seasonally decline. The spot price is supported at 3000 yuan/ton, but there is medium - to - long - term pressure [22] Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose to $11,000, and SHFE copper followed. The probability of a US rate cut next month increased to 85%, boosting copper prices. Short - term trading should focus on volume [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum rose slightly. After the price correction last week, downstream restocked at low prices. The industry has limited contradictions, and the price is in high - level oscillations [5] - **Zinc**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December increased to 84%, and the support at the bottom is strong due to the decline in TC. However, the domestic demand outlook is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate between 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel rebounded, but the market sentiment was cold. Stainless steel inventory decreased, but the cost support weakened. The fundamental situation is weak, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin rose to $38,000, and SHFE tin followed with increased positions. The short - term probability of a further rise increased [11] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: The night - session of the Dalian soybean meal futures followed the US soybean trend and showed a stabilizing trend. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is at a high level. South American new - season soybeans are affected by La Nina [35] - **Corn**: The night - session of corn futures continued to correct. North port corn prices are firm, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The inventory of downstream industries is low, and the replenishment intention is increasing. The 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is technically strong, and short - selling on highs is recommended [39] - **Palm Oil & Soybean Oil**: The marginal negative factors for palm oil have eased, and the change in palm oil may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [36] Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The near - month contract of the container shipping index (European line) is weak due to the weak spot market expectation. The 02 - month contract may have some recovery space if the cargo volume continues to recover. The far - month contract is under pressure from geopolitical factors [20] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is abundant, but the concentrated release of downstream demand has improved the trading atmosphere. However, the supply - surplus pattern is expected to continue [23] - **Methanol**: The near - month contract of methanol rose, and the spread strengthened. The overseas production reduction is being realized, and the port is expected to reduce inventory. It is recommended to go long unilaterally or do a positive spread [24] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in an oscillating trend. The export situation has improved, and the inventory has decreased, but the supply - demand situation is still high - supply and low - demand. Caustic soda is in a weak operation with high supply and low demand [28] - **Glass & Soda Ash**: The sales of glass in Shahe improved, and the price rose slightly. The production capacity may be further compressed. It is expected to oscillate strongly. Soda ash is in a supply - surplus situation in the long - term, and the strategy of long glass and short soda ash can be considered [32][34] - **Stock Index & Treasury Bond**: The stock index futures showed a differentiated trend, and the market is waiting for the resonance of geopolitical situation easing and Fed rate - cut expectation. Treasury bond futures closed down, and the market is worried about bond repayment risks [46][47]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - There are various factors influencing different commodities, including supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Each commodity has its own unique price trends and investment outlooks based on these factors [2][3][4] - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of range - bound trading, while others may have potential for price increases or decreases depending on specific circumstances such as cost support, inventory changes, and demand fluctuations [8][14][20] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there are still downward drivers due to future inventory build - up expectations. The near - term risk is related to Russia's stance on the peace plan [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight fuel oil prices rose due to cost increases. High - sulfur fuel oil may see short - term price support from supply disruptions, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken as the gasoline - diesel spread narrows [21] - **Asphalt**: Recent shipments in East and South China have improved, with inventory reduction accelerating. However, long - term, it still faces pressure as demand follows a seasonal decline [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a high - level oscillation, and silver is relatively strong. Uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical situations remain [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper prices rose, driven by an increased probability of a US interest rate cut in the next month. Short - term trading should focus on position changes [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly. After a price correction, downstream demand showed some resilience. The market is in a high - level oscillation [5] - **Zinc**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, providing some support to zinc prices. However, weak domestic demand restricts upward movement, and it is expected to trade in a range [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel prices rebounded, but the market sentiment is still cold. Stainless steel costs are decreasing, and the fundamental situation is weak [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin prices rose, and Shanghai tin followed suit. Attention should be paid to position changes [11] - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively strong, and demand is weak as steel mills are in a seasonal production - cut period. The market is expected to be range - bound [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices may weaken as the carbon element supply is abundant and downstream demand is under pressure. Coking coal prices are also expected to be weak [16][17] - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are range - bound. Although demand has improved slightly, overall demand is still weak, and supply pressure is gradually easing [14] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene prices are rising, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upward space. Polyethylene supply is stable, and demand is weakening [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are oscillating. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda prices are also weak due to high supply and low demand [28] - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term due to potential supply cuts from maintenance. PTA is expected to follow cost - driven trends with improved processing margins [29] - **Methanol**: It is recommended to try long - side trading or positive spread trading as overseas production cuts are being realized and port inventories are expected to decline [24] - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, and although demand has increased recently, the oversupply situation is expected to continue [23] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is high. South American soybean planting is affected by weather, and it is recommended to wait for buying opportunities after a pull - back [35] - **Vegetable Oils (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil)**: Palm oil market's marginal negative factors are easing, which may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - **Corn**: Corn futures are in a correction. North port prices are rising, and there are concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast. It is recommended to short at high levels with caution [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: The pig industry is in a de - capacity phase, which supports far - month futures prices. However, short - term prices are weak, and a second bottom may form next year [40] - **Eggs**: The medium - term supply pressure of eggs is expected to ease, but short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of futures - spot price spreads [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton is slightly rising. Domestic cotton has cost support and limited upside. The cotton yarn market is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures are in high - level oscillation. Short - term prices are strong, but long - term, there may be inventory pressure on far - month contracts [44] Others - **Shipping (Container Freight Index - European Line)**: Near - month contracts are weak due to weak spot market expectations, while far - month contracts are under pressure from geopolitical factors [20] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp prices are falling. Port inventories are increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see due to uncertainties in the geopolitical situation and Fed rate - cut expectations [46] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures are falling, and there are concerns about bond repayment risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [47]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1. Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes | Asset Class | Sub - variety | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Commodities | Iron ore | 785.50 | 1.68% | | | Corn | 2195.00 | 0.46% | | | Rebar | 3057.00 | 0.13% | | | PTA | 4666.00 | - 0.72% | | | Palm oil | 8550.00 | - 1.09% | | | Polysilicon | 53360.00 | - 1.27% | | | Copper | 85660.00 | - 1.43% | | | Crude oil | 447.40 | - 2.19% | | | Aluminum | 21340.00 | - 2.29% | | | Methanol | 2004.00 | - 2.48% | | | Soybean meal | 3012.00 | - 2.59% | | | Gold | 926.94 | - 2.75% | | | Ethylene glycol | 3808.00 | - 2.91% | | | PVC | 4456.00 | - 3.30% | | | Live pigs | 11350.00 | - 3.61% | | | Glass | 987.00 | - 4.36% | | | Silver | 11680.00 | - 5.62% | | | Coking coal | 1103.00 | - 7.47% | 2.2. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes | Stock Index | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai 50 | 2955.85 | - 2.72% | | CSI 300 | 4453.61 | - 3.77% | | CSI 500 | 6817.41 | - 5.78% | | FTSE 100 | 9539.71 | - 1.64% | | S&P 500 | 6602.99 | - 1.95% | | France CAC40 | 7982.65 | - 2.29% | | NASDAQ Index | 22273.08 | - 2.74% | | Nikkei 225 | 48625.88 | - 3.48% | | Hang Seng Index | 25220.02 | - 5.09% | 2.3. Bonds and Weekly Changes | Bond | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.59 | + 0.62bp | | 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.82 | + 0.14bp | | 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.43 | - 0.45bp | 2.4. Foreign Exchange and Weekly Changes | Foreign Exchange | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 100.15 | + 0.87% | | US Dollar Intermediate Price | 7.09 | + 0.07% | | Euro - US Dollar | 1.15 | - 0.93% | [2] 3. Commodity Views 3.1. Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy View: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Nvidia's better - than - expected performance eases AI bubble concerns; Fed officials' remarks boost rate - cut expectations; loose expectations remain, and the stock index may stage a phased recovery; significant short - term decline with strong downside support. - Bearish Logic: Fed's hawkish stance causes liquidity expectations to fluctuate; rising US Dollar Index suppresses global risk appetite; AI bubble controversy affects tech stocks; fading speculative sentiment leads to reduced trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy View: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Weak fundamental data and insufficient domestic demand support loose expectations; central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading signals policy support; medium - to - long - term allocation demand pulls interest rates down; limited incremental policies at the end of the year. - Bearish Logic: Low expectation of further rate cuts, lack of upward momentum; tight external market liquidity affects the bond market; new redemption rules suppress the bond market, especially 30 - year bonds [4]. 3.2. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: OPEC + suspends production increase, tightening supply expectations; northern hemisphere's heating season boosts demand; geopolitical risks in South America remain; short - term disruption of Libyan exports; Fed officials' calming remarks boost rate - cut expectations; potential stabilization after short - term oversold. - Bearish Logic: Persistent global supply surplus and inventory accumulation; fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations and tight liquidity; overall slowdown in fourth - quarter demand; significant decline in geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Malaysia enters the production - reduction season, easing supply pressure; India's import profit recovery may increase procurement; Indonesia's B50 policy boosts long - term biodiesel demand; widening international soybean - palm oil price difference makes palm oil more cost - effective. - Bearish Logic: US cancellation of relevant energy offices is negative for biodiesel policies; weak Malaysian palm oil exports in November; large domestic inventory accumulation; winter consumption off - season and expected inventory build - up [5]. 3.4. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Low inventory provides price support; limited supply increase expected in 2026, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance; emerging sectors like energy storage drive long - term aluminum consumption. - Bearish Logic: AI bubble concerns affect metal performance; cooling Fed rate - cut expectations pressure metal prices; potential decline in photovoltaic production may suppress aluminum consumption; high prices squeeze processing profits; industry off - season affects demand and开工 [6]. 3.5. Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Potential winter maintenance in Iran may reduce imports; attention to year - end maintenance of southwest gas - based producers; increased losses in coal - to - methanol production may force a reduction in operating loads; low valuation limits downside space. - Bearish Logic: Weakening macro - drivers lead to trading of weak fundamentals; high import arrivals and expected port inventory build - up; compressed MTO profits reduce methanol procurement; weakening coal - based cost support [6]. 3.6. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy View: 2 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Fed officials' dovish signals boost rate - cut expectations; geopolitical and policy uncertainties increase gold's safe - haven appeal; US debt credit issues weaken long - term US dollar confidence; global central banks' continuous gold purchases support long - term demand. - Bearish Logic: Large internal differences within the Fed lead to unclear policy guidance; better - than - expected non - farm payrolls strengthen the hawkish stance; improving US dollar liquidity may increase market risk appetite [7]. 3.7. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Tight supply expectations of Australian coal may support import costs; potential decline in production after year - end production targets are met; increased demand from winter heating. - Bearish Logic: Supply - guarantee policies make the market cautious; increased steel mill losses lead to reduced hot metal production; significant increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance; more online auction failures indicate weak demand; high coking coal inventory in coke enterprises reduces restocking willingness [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The soybean market needs to focus on US soybean exports in the short - term and South American soybean产区 weather in the medium - term. For soybean meal, wait for the end of the correction and look for buying opportunities after stabilization. Palm oil's marginal changes may trigger short - covering, and soybean oil is affected by US soybean prices. The short - term driver of the rapeseed sector is not obvious, and it is recommended to wait and see. The corn market should pay attention to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat. The live pig industry's capacity reduction supports far - month futures prices, and the egg market's medium - term supply pressure is expected to ease [2][3][4][6][7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract is reducing positions and prices are correcting. The new domestic soybean market features high - quality, high - price. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuates. Short - term focus on the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance, and also pay attention to US soybean exports in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient and the crushing volume has increased. Last week, the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume exceeded 2.3 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of major oil mills rose above 1.1 million tons. South American new - season soybeans are affected by La Nina, with slow planting progress. Wait for the signing of the new Sino - US economic and trade agreement and look for buying opportunities after the correction [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. MPOA expects a 3.24% month - on - month increase in production from November 1 - 20, much lower than the previous forecast. The basis of palm oil in East China has strengthened slightly. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has turned positive and strengthened. Palm oil's changes may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures prices have risen slightly, mainly following the rise of foreign oil prices. Canadian rapeseed crushing demand is high, but the export demand trend is hard to reverse. The import of Australian rapeseed has profit potential. The short - term driver of the rapeseed sector is not obvious, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Corn - Corn futures rose and then fell today, interrupting the upward trend. The spot price of Northeast corn is firm, while that of North China is weak. The price difference between the two regions has widened. The downstream corn inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. Live Pigs - In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased to 39.9 million, a 1.1% month - on - month decline. The industry's capacity reduction supports far - month futures prices. The spot price of live pigs continues to decline. The demand for curing and sausage - making in the South will gradually start, but there is also pressure from the second - fattening pigs. It is expected that the pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - Egg futures continue to increase positions, and the far - month contracts have risen significantly. Since July this year, the chick replenishment volume has declined sharply. The number of newly - laid hens will decrease, and the number of old hens to be culled will increase. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg market is expected to ease. The short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of the spot - futures price difference [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking coal: ★★★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain range-bound with limited upside due to weak demand, while the iron ore market is expected to be volatile with a generally loose supply-demand situation. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to be weak and volatile, and the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are also expected to be volatile with some uncertainties [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is currently oscillating. Thread demand has improved, production has increased, and inventory has decreased. Hot-rolled coil demand has recovered, production has slightly increased, and inventory has started to decline. However, downstream demand is weak, and steel mills are still in a loss-making state. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and other places. The real estate investment decline has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Domestic demand remains weak, and steel exports have declined from their highs. The spot price is relatively firm, and the futures market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis. However, weak demand restricts the upside space, and the overall market is expected to remain range-bound. Attention should be paid to policy changes in the real estate sector [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is currently oscillating. The global shipment volume has decreased month-on-month but is still stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a high for the year, and port inventories are expected to return to the inventory replenishment trend this week. The steel demand is at a low level, and it is currently in the off-season. Steel mills are not profitable, and pig iron production is still in a seasonal decline trend, although the decline rate has slowed down. Attention should be paid to whether there will be favorable policies at the macro level. The iron ore fundamentals are relatively loose, but there are still short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties. The market is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The coke market is currently oscillating. Coking profits are average, and daily production has continued to decline slightly. Coke inventory has increased slightly, and downstream demand is limited. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream pig iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and production-side inventory has decreased slightly. The safety inspection in the main coal-producing areas has considered the seasonal decline in pig iron production, and the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. However, the profit level of steel mills is average, and there is a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures market is at a premium, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is currently weak and oscillating. Coking coal production has decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions are average, with prices mainly falling. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream pig iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and production-side inventory has decreased slightly. The safety inspection in the main coal-producing areas has considered the seasonal decline in pig iron production, and the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. However, the profit level of steel mills is average, and there is a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures market is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese market is currently oscillating. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, which is expected to lead to a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. On the demand side, pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. Silicon manganese weekly production has decreased slightly, but production is still at a relatively high level, and inventory is slowly increasing. The prices of spot manganese ore have fluctuated, with high-grade oxidized ore slightly increasing and semi-carbonate ore slightly decreasing. Manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The expected bottom support has shifted downward [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon market is currently oscillating. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, which is expected to lead to a decline in power costs and Lan charcoal prices. On the demand side, pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. Export demand has declined to over 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand still has some resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil investment rating: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil investment rating: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil investment rating: ☆☆☆ [1] - Asphalt investment rating: ★★★ [1] Group 2: Core Views - International oil prices declined overnight, and the SC01 contract slightly fell during the day. Positive progress in the peace plan negotiation between the US and Russia and the potential meeting between the Ukrainian and US presidents led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driving force for oil prices remains [2]. - Fuel oil prices continued to decline due to the drag from the cost side, with limited fundamental contradictions. For high-sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical premium may decline due to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, but there is a risk of conflict escalation during the negotiation period, and short-term supply fluctuations may support prices. The high-sulfur cracking spread and monthly spread are expected to recover, but the medium-term loose pattern remains unchanged. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in the Asia-Pacific region is still abundant, and the price is expected to weaken as the gasoline and diesel spread narrows [3]. - The shipment volume in East and South China has improved significantly recently. The inventory of sample refineries and traders has decreased month-on-month, and the de - stocking of overall commercial inventory has accelerated. The production plan for December has declined year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will follow the seasonal decline rule. Refineries have a strong willingness to support prices, and the spot price has found support at 3000 yuan/ton, but BU still faces pressure in the medium and long term [4]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, and the SC01 contract had a slight intraday decline. Positive progress in the US - Russia peace plan negotiation and the potential meeting between the Ukrainian and US presidents led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There are expectations of greater inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driving force for oil prices remains. The near - term risk lies in whether Russia can accept the latest version of the peace plan [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices continued to decline due to cost - side drag, with limited fundamental contradictions. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical premium may decline due to the peace talks, but there is a risk of conflict escalation during the negotiation period, and short - term supply fluctuations may support prices. The high - sulfur cracking spread and monthly spread are expected to recover, but the medium - term loose pattern remains unchanged. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply in the Asia - Pacific region is still abundant, and as the gasoline and diesel spread narrows due to the recovery of refinery operations, the low - sulfur price is expected to follow the downward trend [3]. Asphalt - The shipment volume in East and South China has improved recently. The inventory of sample refineries and traders has decreased month - on - month, and the de - stocking of overall commercial inventory has accelerated. The December production plan has declined year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will decline seasonally. Refineries have a strong willingness to support prices, and the spot price has found support at 3000 yuan/ton, but BU still faces pressure in the medium and long term [4]

Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is mainly in a range-bound oscillation, with the demand being weak and the supply pressure gradually easing [2] - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate, with a generally loose fundamental situation but short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore types [3] - The coke market is likely to show a weak oscillation, with general coking profits and a continuous slight decline in daily production [4] - The coking coal market may experience a weak oscillation, with a slight decrease in production and a general terminal market [5] - The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the expected bottom support, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee [6] - The ferrosilicon market has the bottom support strength facing a test, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in export demand [7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel futures market oscillated today, with an improvement in the apparent demand for thread steel and a slight increase in the demand for hot-rolled coils [2] - The downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, and steel mills continue to operate at a loss, with a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the future [2] - The overall domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from their highs, with the spot prices remaining relatively firm [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated today, with a decline in global shipments but still stronger than the same period, and a rebound in domestic arrivals to a high for the year [3] - The demand for steel is at a low level, and ironmaking is in a seasonal production cut trend, with a slowdown in the production cut speed [3] - The iron ore fundamentals are generally loose, but some ore types may still experience short-term liquidity disturbances [3] Coke - The coke futures market oscillated today, with general coking profits and a continuous slight decline in daily production [4] - The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly, with the overall market supply being abundant [4] - The coke market is expected to show a weak oscillation, with attention paid to the impact of environmental protection policies [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market showed a weak oscillation today, with a slight decrease in production and a general terminal market [5] - The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly, with the overall market supply being abundant [5] - The coking coal market is expected to experience a weak oscillation, with attention paid to the impact of environmental protection policies [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market oscillated today, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in the expected power cost and chemical coke price [6] - The demand for silicon manganese is at a high level, and the inventory has increased slowly, with the overall market supply being abundant [6] - The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the expected bottom support, with attention paid to the impact of policy changes [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures market oscillated today, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in the expected power cost and blue coke price [7] - The export demand for ferrosilicon has declined, and the secondary demand has increased marginally, with the overall demand still showing resilience [7] - The ferrosilicon market has the bottom support strength facing a test, with attention paid to the impact of policy changes [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The prices of various soft commodities in the futures market show different trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their respective fundamentals [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures slightly declined today, and the spot sales basis of cotton was stable. New cotton cost provides support but also limits price increase, with short - term range - bound trading likely. Although new cotton production increased significantly this year, commercial inventory is not high and the sales progress is fast, which supports the futures price. As of November 20, the cumulative national processed lint cotton was 4.631 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.812 million tons and an increase of 1.512 million tons compared to the four - year average. As of November 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2043 million tons. The cotton yarn market had weak trading, with fewer new orders for spinning mills, a decline in the operating rate, and weavers making mainly rigid - demand purchases. High - count yarn prices were firm and trading was good. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased this year, the sugar - making ratio increased, compensating for the loss in sugar production, and sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand have gradually started sugarcane crushing, and due to good weather conditions, sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar futures were weak. In October, China's syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were relatively large, and there is still some pressure on the supply side. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. In Guangxi, rainfall in the third quarter was good, and the sugarcane vegetation index increased year - on - year. The sugar production in Guangxi for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be relatively good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Apple futures prices continued to rise. In the spot market, in Shandong, small and medium - sized apples were mainly traded, and other varieties had less trading. In the Northwest region, merchants packaged their own inventory for market supply, and the mainstream prices remained stable. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory for the new season was 7.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. This year, the quality of apples is poor, but the purchase price is high, and both traders and fruit farmers are reluctant to sell, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The future de - stocking situation is the main trading point. Overall, there is more divergence between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU) and 20 - rubber (NR) first declined and then rose, and the futures price of butadiene rubber (BR) increased. The domestic natural rubber price was stable with a slight decline, and the synthetic rubber spot price was stable. The port price of butadiene in the external market continued to rise, and the prices in the Thai raw material market varied. Globally, natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China is gradually entering the non - production season. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to rise, with some plants restarting and others starting or continuing maintenance. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants also continued to rise. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate declined due to some tire enterprises' maintenance, and the finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 468,900 tons, with significant increases in both bonded and general trade inventories. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber increased to 17,000 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene increased significantly to 39,800 tons. Overall, demand continues to weaken, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, spot inventory is rising, cost support is strengthening, and market sentiment has improved. A rebound strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR and BR [6] Pulp - Pulp futures slightly declined today. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,300 yuan per ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,170 yuan per ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,400 yuan per ton. As of November 20, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%, and a significant inventory increase for two consecutive weeks. The port inventory in China has been continuously increasing, the supply is still relatively loose, the demand for pulp remains weak, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. After the previous increase, the basis of pulp has significantly narrowed. Due to the overall weak fundamentals, the price has continuously declined after the basis convergence. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - Timber futures prices fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream prices remained stable. The external market prices are still high, and the domestic spot prices are weak, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level. The port outbound volume is maintained above 60,000 cubic meters, and demand supports the price. The total timber inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Overall, the low inventory provides some support for the price. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Hog: ★★★ [1] - Egg: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The agricultural product market shows complex trends with different factors influencing each product. Some products have clear trends and investment opportunities, while others lack short - term drivers and are recommended for a wait - and - see approach [2][3][6] - The market is affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, trade policies, and international price fluctuations [3][4][6] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybean futures are reducing positions and prices are回调. The new crop market features high - quality, high - price. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is fluctuating. Short - term focus is on the domestic spot market and policies, and medium - term on South American weather [2] - Imported soybeans are affected by US exports in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [2][4] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient and the crushing volume has increased. The inventory of soybean meal has reached a high level, and the supply is loose [3] - South American new - season soybeans are affected by La Nina, with slow planting progress. Wait for the new Sino - US trade agreement and look for buying opportunities after the回调 [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. The domestic palm oil basis has strengthened slightly, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has turned positive. Palm oil may see short - covering [4] - Soybean oil is affected by US soybean prices, with short - term focus on US exports and medium - term on South American weather [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures prices have risen slightly, mainly following the external market. Canadian rapeseed has high crushing demand but weak export demand. The import of Australian rapeseed has profit potential. The short - term driver for the rapeseed sector is not obvious, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [6] Corn - Corn futures have stopped rising. North - China corn prices are strong, while South - China corn has quality issues. The price difference between North and South is widening. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [7] Hog - The number of breeding sows has decreased, which supports the long - term futures price. The spot price is weak. With the approaching of the winter demand season, there is also pressure from the second - fattening hog supply. The hog price may form a double - bottom pattern [8] Egg - Egg futures are increasing positions, and the far - month contracts are rising. The supply of new - laying hens is expected to decrease, and the number of old hens to be culled is large. The short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of the spot - futures price difference [9]

| Millio | 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月26日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡，美国补发9月零售销售月率录得0.2%低于预期和前值，PPI基本符合预期，利率期货隐 含12月降息概率维持在80%以上。消息称乌克兰同意美国提出的和平协议条款、但一些细节仍未敲定，各方 将继续会谈。降息和地缘前景仍存不确定性，贵金属高位震荡等待方向性突破。明天美国感恩节假期，周初 初请失业金数据提前至今晚发布。 ★俄乌局势 -- 1美国官员称,乌克兰方面已原则同意美国提出的和平协议,但仍有一些条款需要讨论。乌 官员称，乌美已就日前在日内瓦讨论的和平协议核心条款达成共识。②泽连斯基：将继续与美国就和平计划 进行谈判。③特朗普：和平协议已非常接近达成，仅剩少数 ...