| 《八 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年10月13日 | 操作评级 | | | 曹凯 首席分析师 | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | | F03095462 Z0017365 | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | | 白糖 | なな女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | 女女女 | | | F0285606 Z0003096 | 20号胶 | な☆☆ | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，受到中美贸易冲突可能加剧的影响，上午开盘大幅低开，随后情绪有所修复。棉花现货基差稳中略有下 调；2025/26年度喀什手摘双29，双30杂3内现货报价在GF01+1250上下，疆内自提。2025/26年度新棉收购主流均价空间较窄, 整体以6-6.3元/公斤为主，新棉理论成本13500-14400公定不等。纯棉纱价格稳中偏弱，走货气氛 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Pure Benzene: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bearish [1] - Polypropylene: Bearish [1] - Plastic: Bullish [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic Soda: Bullish [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bearish [1] - Short Fiber: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish [1] - Bottle Chip: Bullish [1] - Propylene: Bearish [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as oil prices, trade frictions, and supply - demand relationships, with different product trends varying [2][3][5] - Some products are facing supply pressure, while others are influenced by demand changes and cost fluctuations Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices decline due to lower oil prices and weak demand [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices are under pressure, with supply increase expectations and inventory digestion pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is affected by oil prices and trade frictions, with a complex market situation [3] - Styrene futures prices continue to decline, with supply increments exceeding demand improvements [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are weak but the impact of trade frictions is weakening, and long - term supply - demand is under pressure [5] - Ethylene glycol's downward space depends on the energy market, and there are trading suggestions for spreads [5] - Short fiber prices decline slightly, and bottle chip may face weakening demand [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rise due to potential import reduction, and the market may be strong in the short term [6] - Urea supply is high, and the demand is weak, with a likely weak market [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC may have a weak and oscillating trend due to trade frictions and supply pressure [7] - Caustic soda may oscillate strongly with supply pressure relief and potential downstream demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices oscillate, with an oversupply situation in the long term [8] - Glass prices are weak, with high inventory and cautious operation suggestions [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different products are as follows: - **Three-star ratings**: Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - **One-star ratings**: Coke, coking coal, and silicon manganese, suggesting a bias towards long/short with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the trading floor [1]. - **One-star with one white-star rating**: Ferrosilicon, indicating a certain long/short tendency but relatively balanced short-term trends and poor operability on the trading floor [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall steel market is under pressure due to weak demand during the peak season, the resurgence of the US tariff - adding issue, and weak domestic demand. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets are supported by high - level pig iron production, and the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by high pig iron production and external trade frictions [2][3][4][6][7][8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs **Steel** - The steel trading floor showed a weak oscillation today. During the holiday, the apparent demand for thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased significantly, production declined slightly, and inventories accumulated substantially. Pig iron production remained high, and downstream carrying capacity was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industry chain continued to ferment. Domestic demand was still weak, but steel exports in September remained high. The trading floor was under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the progress of the game between the two countries and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [2]. **Iron Ore** - The iron ore trading floor rose today, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, global shipments decreased环比 but were stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals rebounded significantly. On the demand side, pig iron production was highly resilient, and steel mills had certain replenishment needs after the National Day, but the pressure for future production cuts was increasing. Considering the low direct exports to the US and the upcoming important domestic meeting in October, the emotional impact was within expectations. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate at a high level [3]. **Coke** - The coke price oscillated upward today. The first round of price increases for coking was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. Profits were average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased slightly. After pre - holiday replenishment, downstream enterprises were mainly consuming inventories, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, and high - level pig iron production provided support. The coke trading floor had a slight premium, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in major coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff - adding [4]. **Coking Coal** - The coking coal price oscillated upward today. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, spot auction transactions decreased slightly, and transaction prices remained stable. Terminal inventories decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly环比, and production - end inventories increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines voluntarily reduced production efficiency, leading to a decline in production. Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, high - level pig iron production provided support. The coking coal trading floor had a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in major coking coal production areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff - adding [6]. **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese price mainly oscillated today. On the demand side, pig iron production remained high. Weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, inventories decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly环比, and spot ores were boosted by the trading floor. Manganese ore inventories decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]. **Ferrosilicon** - The ferrosilicon price mainly oscillated today. On the demand side, pig iron production remained high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly环比, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand was acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The bull market in gold has been strengthened in September, and it is still worth over - allocating. Gold ETFs and gold stocks have room for further growth [30]. - Short - term fluctuations in Sino - US economic and trade relations impact asset prices other than gold. The process of new and old energy conversion continues, driving the A - share bull market. Domestically, the stock market has medium - to - long - term potential, and resource - based varieties like non - ferrous metals such as copper are recommended for over - allocation, while crude oil is for under - allocation [30]. - The domestic real estate economy is in the past. The black market will maintain weak performance, and iron ore can be short - sold at 800 yuan/ton and above [30]. - Since the first Sino - US trade war in 2018, Sino - US trade relations have less impact on the supply and demand of most varieties. However, in soybean imports, the final development of Sino - US trade needs attention as it may potentially boost soybean meal prices next year, increasing breeding costs and accelerating capacity reduction in the pig industry [30]. - Due to Trump's behavior style, commodity volatility may suddenly increase at certain stages, and options are a good hedging tool [30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Risk and Macro - environment - Geopolitical situations are advancing steadily but without a clear breakthrough. Sino - US economic and trade issues are fluctuating, with recent signs of violating negotiation results. The Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is neutrally cautious, and short - term political turmoil in the international arena has led to a phased rebound in the US dollar index and a marginal convergence of US dollar liquidity [7]. Scenario Deduction - **Benchmark Scenario**: Constrained by domestic financial conditions or physical supply - chain pressures in the US, Trump may turn dovish, and negotiations will move towards consensus, presenting trading opportunities after a pulse - like market shock [12]. - **Risk Scenario**: The US has reached a phased framework agreement with its allies, and its financial conditions are better than during the April counter - tariff period. The safe - haven property of US Treasuries has recovered. Trump may consider further pressure, and if negotiations are blocked, market safe - haven trading will increase sustainably [12]. - **Short - term Tracking**: As Trump has not denied the meeting between the two leaders at APEC and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has stated that it is a restriction rather than a ban on exports, markets such as Bitcoin and US stocks are performing actively. At the beginning of this week, the market is pricing in the benchmark scenario, i.e., the TACO trading model [12]. Asset - related Analysis - **Gold**: The two drivers of the gold bull market are safe - haven demand and loose monetary policy. In September, these two drivers were strengthened, and gold is still worth over - allocating [15][30]. - **Stock Market**: The new and old energy conversion driven by AI is the main driver of the current A - share bull market. The stock market has medium - to - long - term potential, and copper and other non - ferrous metals are recommended for over - allocation [15][30]. - **Black Market**: The real estate economy is over, and the long - term policy is to support without over - stimulating. In the future, steel - making capacity reduction is a major trend. The carbon element adjustment is in place, and with anti - involution, future profit - sharing in the steel industry may mainly rely on the decline of iron element prices. The black market will maintain weak performance, and iron ore can be short - sold at 800 yuan/ton and above [17][30]. - **Crude Oil**: The long - term trend of crude oil is bearish, but geopolitical disturbances to supply remain. With the approaching expiration of the 24% counter - tariff exemption on November 29 and the US government shutdown on October 1, market safe - haven sentiment has rapidly increased. In the most extreme scenario, the lows of Brent and WTI are expected to be around $57/barrel and $52/barrel respectively. The bearish trend in the crude oil market has not ended. The average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is expected to drop from $67/barrel in the third quarter to $62/barrel, and the strategy is to short on rallies [18][19]. Agricultural Products - related Analysis - **Soybean**: - **US Soybeans**: As of September 18, 2025, the cumulative sales of US new - crop soybeans for the 25/26 season were 11 million tons, accounting for 24% of the export sales task, compared with 35% in the same period last year. Due to trade uncertainties, China has shifted its soybean procurement to South America and has not purchased US soybeans. As China's procurement volume is large, other countries cannot match its market scale, so US soybean exports face challenges, and prices are expected to be pressured by weak demand [25]. - **Chinese Imported Soybeans**: Even if China does not purchase US soybeans, the supply of South American old - crop soybeans and China's large existing inventory can buffer. Domestic soybean inventories will gradually decrease, and the soybean supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of a supply gap in the Chinese soybean supply chain can be easily mitigated. The soybean supply situation in the second quarter of next year will depend on the situation of South American new - crop soybeans [25]. - **Pig**: In addition to regulatory policies, due to continuous price declines, current breeding enterprise profits are under pressure. With the continuous implementation of policies and market behavior in the industry, the supply - side pressure may be alleviated in the future [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods has significantly impacted the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [2][3]. - The risk of a resurgence in the China - US tariff war and the potential increase in the supply - demand surplus in the oil market will keep the oil market in a weak and volatile state [2]. - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains stable, and they may continue to rise as the US signals a willingness to negotiate [3]. - Most commodity markets are under pressure due to trade frictions, but some may have certain support levels or short - term rebounds based on their fundamentals [4][5][8]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices dropped significantly on Friday due to Trump's tariff threat, and although they rebounded slightly on Monday, the Brent price was still 2.4% lower than on Friday afternoon. The oil market will continue to be weak and volatile, mainly due to the risk of the China - US tariff war and potential supply - demand imbalances [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Trump's tariff threat and the progress in the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation have led to concerns about global economic growth and oil demand, putting downward pressure on the fuel oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil may be relatively stronger, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken further [22]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market maintains a tight supply - demand balance. Cost side weakness puts pressure on asphalt, but the cracking spread has rebounded since late September [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: OPEC+ future production increase and the decline in Saudi CP prices have led to a cautious market sentiment. LPG is under pressure in the short term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, and they may continue their upward trend as the market liquidity risk decreases [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fell on Friday due to trade tensions. Although large - scale mine supply losses have affected copper concentrate production growth expectations, the impact of new trade risks on macro - sentiment should still be evaluated [4]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff threat caused a significant drop in non - ferrous metals. The aluminum market has a neutral inventory accumulation, and the Shanghai Aluminum price has support around 20,500 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The market is bearish due to the tariff threat. The London Zinc price is under pressure at the 3050 - dollar/ton level, and the Shanghai Zinc market has a supply - surplus situation [8]. - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is high, but the Shanghai Lead price has cost support. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel price rebounded and then fell back. The market is in a short - term oscillation, and it is not considered a bullish variety [10]. - **Tin**: The London Tin price may fall back to the pre - holiday trading range in the short term [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The implementation of export controls on lithium - related products may affect market risk preferences. With high inventory levels, there is a short - term callback risk [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is stable compared to before the holiday. The industry is facing high - level inventory accumulation, and short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 48,000 - yuan/ton support [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable. The supply is expected to increase in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [14]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea market is weak. Production enterprises have large inventories, and the supply is high. The domestic supply - demand pattern remains loose [25]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market may continue to be weak due to the drop in oil prices and a weak macro - atmosphere. However, the rumored sanctions on Iranian vessels may affect imports [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Facing cost and demand double - negative factors, there is a short - term risk of decline, and the extent of the decline depends on oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: The international financial market turmoil has increased the bearish sentiment in the styrene market. The price is under pressure due to cost and supply - demand factors [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The market is bearish, with increased inventory after the holiday and a downward - trending price center [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC market may be weak due to high supply and low demand. The caustic soda market has a high - pressure supply situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Facing cost and demand double - negative factors, there is a short - term downward risk. The supply - demand situation is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased domestic production and high port inventory. The supply - demand situation will weaken in the fourth quarter [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber price may decline due to oil price drops and trade frictions. The bottle - chip demand is expected to weaken after the holiday [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US tariff threat has affected the US soybean market. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be supply shortages in the first quarter of next year if the trade relationship deteriorates [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The decline in oil prices has led to a drop in vegetable oil prices. The palm oil market in Malaysia has high inventory, while the Indonesian market is more resilient. In the long - term, oils are expected to be more resilient [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market is affected by trade expectations. The rapeseed price is under short - term pressure, and the domestic rapeseed futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: The domestic soybean may be affected by the overseas market in the short - term. Enterprises are starting to purchase new - season soybeans [40]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures are more domestically - oriented. The new - grain listing has led to a decline in corn prices, but the state - owned grain reserve purchase may provide some support [41]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The pig futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The supply pressure is high in the short - term, but the market may improve in the second half of next year [42]. - **Egg**: The egg price is under downward pressure due to high production capacity and off - season demand. The near - term contracts should be treated with a bearish view, while the contracts for the first half of next year can be considered for long - position allocation [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton demand is expected to be weak. The China - US trade frictions may lead to a decline in both domestic and international cotton prices. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has sufficient supply. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good in the 25/26 season, and attention should be paid to weather conditions [45]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price is oscillating at a high level. The new - season apple production is expected to be stable, and the high inventory may put pressure on prices [46]. - **Timber**: The timber market's supply - demand situation has improved. The low - price spot provides an opportunity for long - position allocation [47]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price has reached a new low. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market is under pressure due to trade frictions and geopolitical issues. Short - term strategies can be adjusted according to market conditions, such as using far - month contracts for long - position allocation or near - month contracts for hedging [49]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The 10 - month liquidity gap is controllable, and the bond market is expected to gradually recover. The yield curve is expected to steepen [50].

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆价格从高位回调。目前随着新豆上市，市场主体开始进行新季豆的收购工作,目前内蒙和黑龙江地区 低蛋白毛粮收购价格太约在1.7-1.8元/斤。39% · 40%蛋白的毛粮收购价格大约在1.85-1.95元/斤，目前企业在 陆续收购。豆一表现强于豆二,美豆方面短期供需两端面临压力,预计后续美豆市场仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, showing a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Timber: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the given star - rating description [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, production, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose slightly and then fell back. New cotton pre - sale prices are lower than spot prices. Xinjiang cotton purchase prices first fell and then rose during the National Day. Normal - moisture cotton was mostly purchased at 6 - 6.2 yuan/kg, with higher prices at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. Pure cotton yarn prices are stable to weak, and the sales atmosphere is average. Since mid - September, the continuous decline of Zhengzhou cotton has negatively affected seed cotton purchase prices. There is a strong expectation of production increase in the new year, and demand remains weak. Macroscopically, pay attention to the Sino - US negotiations during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start sugarcane crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year due to good weather. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. In Guangxi, rainfall has been good since July, and the sugarcane vegetation index has increased year - on - year. The sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to maintain a weak fluctuation [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. New - season Red Fuji apples are gradually coming onto the market, but the listing progress is slow due to rainfall in the producing areas. The price of high - quality apples in the Northwest producing area is higher than the same period last year, and the spot market is bullish. However, the apple production in the 25/26 season is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In Shaanxi, farmers are more bullish, and the amount of apples left for harvesting has increased. The cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected, and the price faces upward pressure. Adopt a bearish strategy [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all declined, and market sentiment weakened. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable to weak, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price mostly rose. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - production period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise this week, with some plants under maintenance or low - load operation. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to decline. During the National Day, tire companies had holidays, and the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly. After the holiday, tire companies are expected to resume production. Before the holiday, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 45.65 tons, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to decline to 1.18 million tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory rose to 2.78 million tons. Overall, demand decreased during the National Day, supply pressure is high, and inventory reduction is difficult. Adopt a rebound strategy [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline, reaching a new low. The spot price of coniferous pulp was 5300 yuan/ton, and that of broad - leaved pulp was 4250 yuan/ton. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 203.3 million tons, a decrease of 7.9 million tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of broad - leaved pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. The domestic import inventory is high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. Downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Before the holiday, the arrival volume at ports increased. The price of New Zealand radiata pine in October was raised, but the domestic spot price was weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased. The overseas price is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to strengthen. The trader pressure has increased, and imports are not expected to increase significantly in the short term. Before the holiday, the port inventory decreased significantly, the peak - season demand began to appear, and inventory reduction was smooth. The original inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. Adopt a bullish strategy [8]

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆价格从高位回调。目前随着新豆上市，市场主体开始进行新季豆的收购工作,目前内蒙和黑龙江地区 低蛋白毛粮收购价格太约在1.7-1.8元/斤。39% · 40%蛋白的毛粮收购价格大约在1.85-1.95元/斤，目前企业在 陆续收购。豆一表现强于豆二,美豆方面短期供需两端面临压力,预计后续美豆市场仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a weekly overview of futures price and volume data, including the closing prices, weekly price changes, 20 - day annualized volatilities, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes of various commodity futures and financial futures. It also shows the price changes, average daily position - volume changes, and average daily trading - volume changes of different types of futures, as well as the year - to - date price changes [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Futures Price and Volume Overview - **Commodity Futures**: Covers multiple categories such as precious metals (gold, silver), non - ferrous metals (copper, nickel, aluminum), black metals (iron ore, coke, steel products), energy and chemical products (crude oil, fuel oil, PVC), agricultural products (corn, soybeans, cotton), livestock products (pigs, eggs), and forest products (pulp). Each variety has details on weekly closing price, weekly price change, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility change, speculation degree, trend degree, and capital change [2]. - **Financial Futures**: Includes IC, IF, IM, IH, T, TS, and TF, with information on weekly closing price, weekly price change, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility change, speculation degree, trend degree, and capital change [3]. 3.2 Weekly Price Changes of Different Futures - **Black Futures**: For example, coke rose 2.68%, silicon iron fell 1.06%, and coking coal rose 3.11% [2][4]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Crude oil fell 3.71%, natural rubber rose 1.9%, and LPG fell 3.94% [2][6]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean oil rose 1.99%, palm oil rose 2.28%, and eggs fell 7.64% [2][7]. - **Non - ferrous and Precious Metal Futures**: Gold rose 3.11%, tin rose 4.1%, and silver rose 1.5% [2][9]. - **Financial Futures**: IC fell 0.33%, IF fell 0.56%, and T rose 0.13% [3][10]. 3.3 Year - to - Date Price Changes - **Commodity Futures**: Silver had a 48.35% increase, while crude oil had a - 19.45% decrease [13]. - **Financial Futures**: IC had a 27.63% increase, and T had a - 0.87% decrease [13]. 3.4 Other Information - **Capital Attention**: The capital attention of tin, glass, rapeseed oil, manganese silicon, urea, and coke has increased [15]. - **Position - Volume Changes**: The position - volumes of wire rods, cotton yarn, LU, glass, and urea have increased significantly [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Propylene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] Report's Core View - The chemical industry as a whole is facing various challenges, including weak demand, high inventory, and pressure on supply. Most product prices are under downward pressure, and the market sentiment is generally bearish. However, there are also some differences among different sub - industries, and specific product trends need to be analyzed based on their own fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices are weak, with limited upward momentum for spot prices due to subdued demand and general market trading [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices continue to decline, with increased supply pressure from higher production and inventory accumulation [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are in a low - level shock, and styrene prices are under pressure due to weak cost support, sufficient supply, and lackluster demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are falling due to oil price decline. Near - term supply - demand is okay, but long - term pressure exists [4] - Ethylene glycol has a weak fundamental situation with high domestic production and large port inventory accumulation [4] - Short fiber has some support from seasonal demand, while bottle chip demand is expected to weaken [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures stop falling, but near - term weakness persists due to high imports and inventory [5] - Urea prices hit new lows, with high supply, large inventory, and limited export support [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are likely to be weak due to high supply, increased inventory, and low demand [6] - Caustic soda supply remains high, with downstream resistance to high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are weak, with long - term oversupply. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities [7] - Glass has seasonal inventory accumulation, but low - valuation limits the decline. Low - buying near cost can be considered [7]