保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供 参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。本 报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需 注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/30 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/27 | 美元/桶 | 65.52 | 65.24 | 0.43% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/27 | 美元/桶 | 67.77 | 67.73 | 0.06% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价) ...

风险提示：地缘局势变动，关税政策变动，美国经济超预期恶化。 期货（期权）研究报告 利空因素逐步消化，下半年谨慎看涨 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 行情回顾：上半年油价整体先跌后涨，由 Q1 的低波动阶段转入 Q2 的 高波动阶段。Q1 围绕的核心是特朗上台后政策预期和 OPEC+增产预 期，油价震荡下行；Q2 的特点是超预期，4 月份的关税及增产超预期， 导致油价大幅度下行，5 月份在关税谈判好于预期后震荡修复，6 月份 中东局势的超预期发展使得油价大幅上行，原油从低波动阶段转入高波 动阶段。 下半年行情展望：我们对下半年油价的观点是谨慎看涨。从宏观上看， 美国短期经济虽有压力，但底部有美联储降息支撑，而减税法案带来的 新一轮财政扩张可能支撑经济中长期向好；从基本面上看，下半年供需 存在过剩压力，Q4 压力大于 Q3，但供应端的利空已被逐步计价，偏低 的油价反过来会抑制 OPEC+及页岩油厂商的增产意愿，美国原油库存 处于近五年低位的情况下，油价向上弹性较高。因此整体来看，我们认 为下半年油市处于一个利空因素被逐步消化的过程，同时考虑到 OPEC+增产周期下的过剩 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For lead, the price has been rising due to support from raw materials and reduced production in the secondary lead sector, but the downstream market has not entered the peak season yet, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, so the upward momentum of the lead price is limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 17,500 yuan/ton [1] - For zinc, the short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a narrow range, but the rebound space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the trading opportunities after the elimination of favorable factors [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.44% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures rose by 0.35% compared with the previous day. The basis of Shanghai lead was - 225 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between different contracts of Shanghai lead futures showed various changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract being - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 52,643 lots, an increase of 45.33%, and the open interest was 51,182 lots, an increase of 237.77%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.03, a decrease of 56.97% [1] Inventory - The LME inventory remained unchanged at 273,250 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1.37% to 45,278 tons. As of June 26, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 56,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared with June 19 and increasing by more than 300 tons compared with June 23 [1] Fundamental Information - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee is likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries has been rising, and the supply of recyclers is limited. Some secondary lead smelters have reduced or suspended production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion, and the finished product inventory of secondary lead is increasing [1] - The demand side is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream procurement is expected to improve, which may reduce the drag on the lead price [1] Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.27% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rose by 0.88% compared with the previous day. The basis of Shanghai zinc was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton [1] - The spreads between different contracts of Shanghai zinc futures and the spreads in different regions showed various changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract being 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 168,109 lots, an increase of 6.04%, and the open interest was 135,638 lots, an increase of 4.45%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.24, an increase of 1.53% [1] Inventory - The LME inventory remained unchanged at 119,850 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9.71% to 6,473 tons. As of June 26, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 79,500 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons compared with June 19 and an increase of 0.17 tons compared with June 23 [1] Fundamental Information - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc concentrate processing fee has continued to rise. The raw material shortage has less impact on smelter production, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream maintains rigid demand for zinc ingots [1] - Recently, the downstream procurement sentiment has improved after the zinc price decline, and the macro - sentiment is positive. The strike at Nexa's Cajamarquilla zinc smelter has increased market concerns about future supply, pushing up the zinc price [1]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1] Group 2 - The core view is that the recent rumors of relaxed urea exports and the release of a new round of Indian tenders have boosted market sentiment. From the perspective of urea demand, June - July is still the peak season for top - dressing of northern corn, and the loosening of current export policies and price drops will stimulate speculative demand. So, the demand for urea in the next two months is not bad, and one can wait for the opportunity to go long after the spot price stabilizes [1] Group 3 Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01 was 1682 yuan/ton on June 26, down 15 yuan or 0.88% from June 25 [1] - UR05 was 1691 yuan/ton on June 26, down 14 yuan or 0.82% from June 25 [1] - UR09 was 1724 yuan/ton on June 26, down 16 yuan or 0.92% from June 25 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small Granules) - The price in Shandong was 1800 yuan/ton on June 26, up 40 yuan or 2.27% from June 25 [1] - The price in Henan was 1800 yuan/ton on June 26, up 30 yuan or 1.69% from June 25 [1] - The price in Hebei was 1800 yuan/ton on June 26, up 10 yuan or 0.56% from June 25 [1] - The price in Northeast was 1890 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The price in Jiangsu was 1810 yuan/ton on June 26, up 30 yuan or 1.69% from June 25 [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 109 yuan/ton on June 26, up 54 yuan from June 25 [1] - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 9 yuan/ton on June 26, down 1 yuan from June 25 [1] Upstream Costs - The anthracite price in Henan was 1080 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The anthracite price in Shanxi was 820 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2930 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan was 2520 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The melamine price in Shandong was 5083 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] - The melamine price in Jiangsu was 5300 yuan/ton on June 26, unchanged from June 25 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1738 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1741 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1698 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1724 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1720 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2509 was 233314 lots [1] Trading Strategy - On the previous trading day, UR fluctuated in a range and closed at 1724. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the spot price stabilizes [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, market risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was squeezed out, and methanol prices回调. Although the geopolitical situation may be volatile, methanol will gradually return to its fundamentals. The current domestic methanol supply - demand situation has little change, and the future impact may come from imports. Considering the impact on Iranian methanol supply, imports in July may decrease. With the support of low port inventories, the methanol price correction is expected to be limited. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2433 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.66%); MA05 closed at 2336 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.34%); MA09 closed at 2417 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (1.09%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Sichuan - Chongqing remained unchanged; the price in Hubei decreased by 45 yuan/ton (-1.89%), and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.50%); the price in Taicang increased by 120 yuan/ton (4.54%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 104 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged, while the price of Datong Q5500 increased by 5 yuan/ton (1.03%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.26%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged [1] - **Downstream Profit of Methanol**: The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 27.6 yuan/ton (5.23%); the profit of East China MTO decreased by 202 yuan/ton (-15.16%); the profit of acetic acid decreased by 33.27 yuan/ton (-10.27%); the profit of MTBE decreased by 41 yuan/ton (-27.98%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged [1] 3.4 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2384 yuan/ton, closing at 2417 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1620777 lots and an open interest of 857159, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 280 - 290 US dollars/ton. There are few fixed - price offers. The reference negotiation for far - future non - Iranian shipments is at +1.8 - 2%, and most of the formula - price negotiations this week are for the south. The far - future non - Iranian shipments were traded at +2 - 2.1%. In other Middle - East regions, the intended shipping price of a few far - future shipments is at +1.9%, but market participants are mostly on the sidelines, waiting for the resumption of a methanol plant in a Middle - East country [1]

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Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - After the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the oil market entered a phase of rest and consolidation. The decrease in US EIA crude oil inventories and significant drawdowns in refined oil products supported a slight increase in oil prices. PX prices are close to pre - rally levels, with solid bottom support due to low inventory. PX's future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PTA prices declined slightly due to concerns about downstream polyester factory production cuts, with its inventory in a downward absolute - value trend but at a near - five - year high relative value. Polyester products are expected to follow the decline in oil prices. The polyester bottle - chip market has a mixed supply - side price trend, with expected tightening of market supply and potential improvement in downstream demand. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate with costs, with PX, PTA, and PR all expected to move in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 26, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.24 per barrel, up 0.49%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.73 per barrel, up 0.07%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $568.75 per ton, down 1.81%. Isomer - grade xylene FOB Korea was $725 per ton, down 0.21%. PX CFR China Main Port was $853 per ton, up 0.51% [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.42%; settlement price was 4,762 yuan per ton, down 0.38%. Near - month contract closing price was 4,976 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; settlement price was 4,974 yuan per ton, down 0.80%. Domestic PTA spot price was 5,023 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. CCFEI PTA domestic price index was 5,025 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; foreign price index was $642 per ton (as of June 25), down 0.93%. Near - far month spread was 212 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; basis was 255 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [1] - **PX**: CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,722 yuan per ton, down 0.53%; settlement price was 6,710 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. Near - month contract closing price was 6,854 yuan per ton, down 0.93%; settlement price was 6,848 yuan per ton, down 1.50%. Domestic PX spot price was 6,889 yuan per ton, unchanged. PX CFR Taiwan was $853 per ton, up 0.35%; FOB Korea was $828 per ton, up 0.36%. PXN spread was $284.25 per ton, up 5.50%; PX - MX spread was $128 per ton, up 4.77%. Basis was 167 yuan per ton, an increase of 36 yuan [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,930 yuan per ton, down 0.50%; settlement price was 5,936 yuan per ton, down 0.30%. Near - month contract closing price was 6,010 yuan per ton, down 0.56%; settlement price was 6,024 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. East China market polyester bottle - chip price was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; South China market was 6,120 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. East China market basis was 120 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan; South China market basis was 190 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On June 26, 2025, CCFEI polyester DTY price index was 9,150 yuan per ton, down 0.54%; POY was 7,425 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; FDY68D and FDY150D were both 7,450 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester staple fiber was 6,785 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester chip was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; bottle - grade chip was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Production and Operation Information - **Operating Rate**: On June 26, 2025, PX operating rate was 80.43%, down 2.27 percentage points; PTA factory load rate was 78.56%, unchanged; polyester factory load rate was 89.35%, down 0.66 percentage points; bottle - chip factory load rate was 80.20%, down 2.26 percentage points; Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 65.10%, down 2.54 percentage points [1] - **Sales Rate**: On June 26, 2025, polyester filament sales rate was 28%, up 6 percentage points; polyester staple fiber sales rate was 43%, down 12 percentage points; polyester chip sales rate was 40%, down 6 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20. A 1 - million - ton PX plant in Shandong has started its scheduled maintenance, maintaining a tight - balance situation in the domestic market [2] Trading Strategy - PTA's TA2509 contract closed at 4,770 yuan per ton, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 1.06 million lots. PX's PX2509 contract closed at 6,722 yuan per ton, down 0.44%, with a trading volume of 290,400 lots. PR's 2509 contract closed at 5,930 yuan per ton, down 0.40%, with a trading volume of 60,700 lots. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate with costs, with PX, PTA, and PR all expected to move in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, and the industry still faces high inventory pressure. Although the silicon price rebounded from a low level due to supply - side disturbances, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. For industrial silicon, if the production cut is less than expected, short positions can be considered. For polysilicon, due to strong uncertainty in terminal installation and over - capacity issues that are difficult to resolve in the short term, the price is unlikely to have an upward trend in the short term, and shorting on rebounds is recommended for the medium - and long - term [1]. Summaries by Related Content Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.18% to 7,720 yuan/ton. Among different regions, most prices remained stable, while the average price of oxygenated 553 in some regions had small increases. For polysilicon, the prices of N - type dense material, polycrystalline secondary material, dense material, and cauliflower material remained unchanged, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.56% to 31,715 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory Information - On June 26, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 542,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 128,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including non - registered warehouse receipts and spot parts) was 414,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared with last week [1]. Industry News - SK plans to sell its silicon - based anode factory to its US partner Group 14, selling its 75% stake in the joint - venture SK Materials Group 14 to Group 14 Technologies through in - kind payment. The joint - venture factory in South Korea is in the trial - production stage [1]. - On the evening of June 24, 2025, Jingshan Light Machinery announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary Suzhou Shengcheng Photovoltaic Equipment Co., Ltd. would invest 150 million yuan in cash in Jiangsu Runyang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Industrial Silicon**: On the supply side, the operation of silicon enterprises in the north has changed little, and the south - west production area is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs, so the enterprise operation is steadily increasing. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are continuing to cut production, and the resumption of production may be postponed; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. Domestic monomer enterprises' operation shows mixed changes, with the overall operation decreasing, and the demand for industrial silicon is further weakened. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - **Polysilicon**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are maintaining production cuts, and some silicon material factories may have new capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, with the overall output remaining within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, the inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials are rising, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are continuously falling, the market demand is slowing down, and the transactions are weak [1].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250626: 出口消息提振,现货逐步企稳 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 6月25日 6月24日 | | | | (矩对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR01 UR05 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1697.00 1705.00 | 1667.00 1686.00 | 30.00 19.00 | 1.80% 1.13% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1740.00 | 1698.00 | 42.00 | 2.47% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1760.00 | 1750.00 | 10.00 | 0.57% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1650.00 | 1620.00 | 30.00 | 1.85% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1770.00 | 1760.00 | 10.00 | 0.57% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1790.0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke lowered by 220 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 240 yuan/ton. Steel has entered the off - season, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Coke fundamentals have improved, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate. [7] - For coking coal, due to safety inspections and environmental protection, supply has tightened marginally but is expected to resume production soon. The coking coal spot market is stable, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Coke Futures**: For example, J2601 closed at 1428.0 (previous day 1399.5), up 28.5; J2605 closed at 1458.5 (previous day 1418.0), up 40.5. [2] - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM2601 closed at 847.5 (previous day 827.5), up 20.0; JM2605 closed at 872.5 (previous day 855.8), up 20.0. [2] - **Spot Market**: Xingtai coke factory - price was 1260 (unchanged), Australian low - volatile coking coal was 888 (down 4). [2] 2. Fundamentals - **Coke Fundamentals**: 247 steel enterprises' daily iron - water output was 242.2 (up 0.57, 0.24% MoM); independent coking plants' coke inventory was 115.6 (down 10.1, - 8.06% MoM). [2] - **Coking Coal Fundamentals**: 110 coal - washing plants' daily coking coal output was 51.0 (up 3.5, 6.70% MoM); port coking coal inventory was 303.3 (down 8.7, - 2.79% MoM). [2] 3. Important News - Premier Li Qiang attended the 2025 Summer Davos Forum, stating that China will continue to integrate into the global market. [4] - On June 25, the main port iron ore transactions were 107.70 million tons, up 32.5% MoM; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel transactions were 9.35 million tons, up 0.3% MoM. [5] - From June 1 - 22, the national passenger car market retail was 126.9 million vehicles, up 24% YoY compared with the same period last June. [6] 4. Trading Strategies - Coke prices have been cut for the fourth time. Steel is in the off - season, and coke fundamentals have improved. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate. [7] - Coking coal supply has tightened marginally, and the market is expected to be stable with futures prices fluctuating. [7]