Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain currently has an unfavorable demand outlook and generally fluctuates with costs. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On June 30, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $65.11 per barrel, down 0.63% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $67.61 per barrel, down 0.24% [1]. - **Upstream**: On June 27, 2025, the spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $569.75 per ton, up 0.18%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $728.50 per ton, up 0.41%. On June 30, the spot price of p - xylene PX CFR China's main port was $874 per ton, up 0.85% [1]. - **PTA**: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,798 yuan per ton, up 0.42%; the settlement price was 4,824 yuan per ton, up 1.17%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 5,047 yuan per ton, up 0.52% [1]. - **PX**: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,796 yuan per ton, up 0.65%; the settlement price was 6,826 yuan per ton, up 1.46%. The spot price of domestic p - xylene was 6,836 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - **PR**: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,936 yuan per ton, up 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,956 yuan per ton, up 0.47%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,040 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: On June 30, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,950 yuan per ton, down 1.10%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,325 yuan per ton, down 0.68%; the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6,765 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [2]. Spread Information - On June 30, 2025, the near - far month spread of PTA was 192 yuan per ton, a decrease of 32 yuan; the basis was 252 yuan per ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The PXN spread was $304.25 per ton, up 2.12%; the PX - MX spread was $145.50 per ton, up 3.07% [1]. Production and Sales Information - On June 30, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 31%, down 19 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 40%, down 14 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 70%, up 8 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - International crude oil prices fluctuated significantly recently, affecting the trend of PX. The risk premium has been fully reversed, and the PX price is close to the level before the rally. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the rigid demand provides effective support. PTA will have new device put into operation in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, so the bottom support is relatively stable [2]. - The PX market was strong during the session, and the cost supported PTA. However, due to concerns about downstream polyester production cuts, the PTA spot basis weakened. After the conflict ended, the oil price reversed the risk premium, and polyester products will follow the decline. The absolute value of PTA inventory is in a downward channel, but the relative value is at a near - five - year high, and the situation of strong near - term and weak far - term is difficult to change [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Recently, due to sudden production cuts by Xinjiang silicon enterprises on the supply side, the futures and spot prices have rebounded, providing short - term support for silicon prices. In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply situation persists [1]. - The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level driven by the rising sentiment of industrial silicon. However, from a fundamental perspective, the adjustment of industrial overcapacity takes time to transmit, and the rebound space may be limited [1]. Summary by Related Content Price Changes - **Industrial Silicon**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) increased by 1.23% to 8,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.15% to 8,800 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 0.37% to 8,060 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 31.5 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon dense material remained flat at 30.0 yuan/kg, and the price of polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 28.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 0.66% to 33,535 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of N - type 210mm decreased by 0.81% to 1.22 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R decreased by 0.98% to 1.01 yuan/piece. The price of N - type 183mm remained flat at 0.87 yuan/piece [1]. - **Cell**: The price of single - crystal PERC cell M10 - 182mm remained flat at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - **Component**: The price of single - crystal PERC component single - sided - 182mm remained flat at 0.70 yuan/watt, and the price of single - crystal PERC component single - sided - 210mm remained flat at 0.72 yuan/watt [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC remained flat at 10,450 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue decreased by 0.43% to 11,550 yuan/ton, and the price of silicone oil decreased by 0.37% to 13,300 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - **Silicon Wafer Market**: In July, the overall production schedule of the silicon wafer market is expected to decrease by about 4 - 5GW, with significant production cuts by several leading enterprises, especially for N - type 183mm silicon wafers [1]. - **Electronic Silane Gas Project**: The first - phase 2000 - ton production line of Shaanxi Tianhong Ruike Silicon Materials Co., Ltd.'s annual 5000 - ton electronic silane gas project will be put into production at the end of this month, and the second - phase 3000 - ton project will be launched as planned [1]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Market**: Domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to collectively cut production by 30% starting from July, and it is expected that the domestic glass production in July will drop to about 45GW [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Industrial Silicon**: On the supply side, the operation of silicon enterprises in the north has changed little, and the operation of enterprises in the southwest is steadily recovering. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and the demand from the organic silicon and silicon - aluminum alloy industries is weak [1]. - **Polysilicon**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises continue to cut production, but some may have new production capacity, with a slight increase in expected output. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventory and slow - growing demand [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, the domestic crude oil price fell, and methanol also pulled back. The methanol market will gradually return to its own fundamentals. The current supply - demand situation of domestic methanol has little change and weak driving force. The possible impact on the market in the future still lies in imports. Although the conflict has affected Iran's methanol supply, the overall arrival volume from South America is stable, which compensates for the loss of Middle - East plant maintenance to some extent. The port inventory increased last week. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate, and the operating range of the 09 contract is estimated to be between 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton. (View score: 0) [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: On June 27, 2025, MA01 was 2419 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.58%) from the previous day; MA05 was 2328 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.34%); MA09 was 2393 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.99%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: On June 27, 2025, the price in Taicang was 2810 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (1.63%); in Shandong it was 2260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.88%); in Guangdong it was 2465 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.41%); in Shaanxi it remained unchanged at 2065 yuan/ton; in Sichuan - Chongqing it remained at 2300 yuan/ton; in Hubei it remained at 2340 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia it was 1955 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.26%) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 391 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, up 59 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 2. Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: On June 27, 2025, the price of Buzhouke SQ5500 was 430 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.58%); the price of Datong Q5500 remained at 490 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 remained at 495 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The price in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively on June 27, 2025 [1]. 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On June 27, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol production remained at 493.40 yuan/ton; the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol production remained at - 460 yuan/ton; the profit of Northwest MTO was 550.60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.90%); the profit of East China MTO was - 1473.07 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton (3.98%) [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: On June 27, 2025, the profit of acetic acid was 286.77 yuan/ton, down 3.77 yuan/ton (-1.30%); the profit of MTBE was 169.12 yuan/ton, up 63.60 yuan/ton (60.27%); the profit of formaldehyde remained at - 252.40 yuan/ton; the profit of dichloromethane remained at 518 yuan/ton [1]. 4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Price**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and declined. It opened at 2417 yuan/ton, closed at 2393 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 986,560 lots, and the open interest was 784,498 lots, showing reduced volume and position [1]. - **Foreign Information**: After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the industry expected that the import supply from a certain Middle - East country would return to normal. The important downstream factories continued the negative feedback, and the US - dollar fixed prices were stable and then declined. The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - month was 275 - 285 US dollars/ton, and the merchants' intended selling price was 284 - 285 US dollars/ton. The non - Iranian cargoes were mainly traded at formula prices. Some buyers intended to buy imported cargoes arriving in late July. On Friday, a small number of non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - month were reported to be traded at 280 US dollars/ton. In other Middle - East regions, a small number of factories' intended selling points for far - month arriving cargoes were at +1.9%, and the buyers' psychological price was relatively low, with no real - deal transactions for the time being. The CFR China price was in the range of 216 - 280 US dollars/ton [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Shanghai copper price is expected to be cautiously strong due to disruptions in multiple overseas copper mine productions, low electrolytic copper inventories both at home and abroad, and the easing of mutual tariff levies between China and the US leading to export expectations. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels: for Shanghai copper, the support is around 76,000 - 78,000 and the resistance is around 80,000 - 82,000; for London copper, the support is around 9,000 - 9,300 and the resistance is around 9,800 - 10,000; for US copper, the support is around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance is around 5.0 - 5.5 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On June 27, 2025, the closing price was 79,920, up 1,030 from the previous day; the trading volume was 131,756 lots, an increase of 54,456 lots; the open interest was 215,705 lots, an increase of 24,565 lots; the inventory was 25,346 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 80,125, up 1,185 [2]. - **London Copper**: On June 27, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,879, down 17 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 91,275 tons; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 240.67, down 79.16; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 23.89, down 14.53; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0899, up 0.12 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On June 27, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.122, up 0.14; the total inventory was 209,281, an increase of 3,146 [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economic**: The US Senate's budget reconciliation bill plans to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion and make three corporate tax cuts set to expire in 2020 in the House version permanent, but no final agreement has been reached on the "state and local tax deduction" (SMLT). The US May CPI annual rate was 2.4%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not triggered a rebound in consumer inflation, increasing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September or December [2]. - **Supply - side**: Ivanhoe Mines' 2025 Kanoa - Kakula copper production guidance is 370,000 - 420,000 metal tons, a 28% decrease from the initial guidance due to an earthquake at the Zakuza copper mine. Several mines had production issues, while some mines like Tongling Nonferrous' Miraado copper mine in Ecuador, Julong copper mine, and ACC Metals' Gediktepe mine have expansion plans that may increase domestic copper concentrate production (import) in June. The China copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased from last week, and port copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volumes have changed accordingly [2]. - **Demand - side**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) has increased (decreased) from last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventories of relevant enterprises have changed accordingly. The production start - up rate of Chinese copper wire and cable has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventories of relevant enterprises have changed. The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of Chinese copper liquid - coated wire has increased (decreased), and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of relevant enterprises have decreased. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese brass rods has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of relevant enterprises have increased. Due to the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline (increase, increase, decrease) [2]. Trading Strategy Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper as mentioned above [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - Domestic lithium carbonate supply is expected to be loose in June 2025, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. The price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate within the range of 30,000 - 50,000 with support and 60,000 - 66,000 with pressure [1][6] - The production and export volume of various lithium - related products in China may change in June 2025, affected by factors such as new project production, production line maintenance, and cost - profit situations [4][5][6] Summary by Related Information Lithium Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On June 27, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 63,240, 63,340, 63,200, and 63,200 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 615,010 lots, and the open interest was 341,448 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 61,150 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, an increase of 550 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The prices of other lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, and cathode materials also showed different degrees of change [1] Company Project Updates - **Domestic Vision Power**: The energy - storage battery production line of its factory in Tennessee, USA, has been put into operation, with a first - phase capacity of 700MWh, which can meet the demand for high - quality energy - storage products from leading customers [1] - **Zhengli New Energy**: The topping - out ceremony of the 20GWh automotive power lithium - battery project at its Yinhe District base in Changshu, Jiangsu, was held on June 7, 2026. The first phase is planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2028 [2] - **Zhejiang Jianli Chemical**: The hexafluorophosphate project was successfully put into operation at one time. The company's new energy materials construction project has a total investment of 510 million yuan, with a phased construction plan [2] - **Henan Puyang Chuangnan Company**: The project has completed preparations and entered the trial - production stage, with a total investment of 600 million yuan and an annual production capacity of 4GWh after full completion [3] - **Huamei Xingtai Technology**: It signed a project to build a production line with an annual output of 40 million mobile power supplies, 200 million Wi - Fi lithium batteries and supporting facilities in Hunan Automobile High - tech Zone, with a total investment of 500 million yuan [3] Production and Supply Outlook - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production (import) volume in June may increase or decrease. The production profit of some domestic lithium carbonate production methods is negative, and the import window is closed [4] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The production volume in June may change, and the export profit is negative, which may lead to an increase in the export volume in June [4] - **Phosphoric Acid and Related Products**: The monthly average production cost of phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate varies by production process. The production volume of phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate in June may increase or decrease [5] - **Other Products**: The production, export, and inventory of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and battery cells in June may also change [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Concerns about the rebound in consumer - end inflation have delayed the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts. However, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and geopolitical risks that are difficult to resolve may cause precious metal prices to weaken first and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 773.26 yuan/gram. The trading volume of the active contract was 169,217, and the open interest was 129,822. The inventory was 18,237 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 1.50, and the basis between the spot and futures was - 3.32 [1]. - COMEX gold futures' closing price was 8,792.00. The trading volume of the active contract was 469,549, and the open interest was 331,807. The inventory was 37,784,179.63 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price was 3,271.75 dollars/ounce [1]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings were 954.82, and iShare gold ETF holdings were 441.92 [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8,773.00 (in yuan/ten - gram). The trading volume of the active contract was 469,549, and the open interest was 331,807. The inventory was 1,295,663 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 2.00, and the basis between the spot and futures was - 23.00 [1]. - COMEX silver futures' closing price was 36.17. The trading volume of the active contract was 65,468, and the open interest was 24,788. The inventory was - 930,224.12 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price was 37.16 dollars/ounce [1]. - US iShare silver ETF holdings were 14,763, and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holdings were 5,959.97 [1]. Important Information - **Policy and Politics**: - The Trump administration's tax - cut bill was approved by the US Senate. The US House of Representatives' Republican tax bill plans to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars and make three corporate tax breaks permanent [1]. - Trump criticized Canada's digital tax, terminated all US - Canada trade negotiations, and threatened to impose new tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary warned of a 301 investigation [1]. - The EU and the US believe they can reach a tariff agreement by the end of July. The US Treasury Secretary hinted that the "tariff deadline" in July might be extended to September 1st [1]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: - The US May consumer - end inflation core PCE annual rate was 2.7%, higher than expected and the previous value. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut times are still in September/October/December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects one more rate cut by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May, and the market expects two more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still an expectation of an interest - rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategy - For investors, it is recommended to mainly lay out long positions on dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 31 - 34 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,300 - 8,500 and the resistance level around 9,500 - 10,000 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent rumors of looser urea export policies and the release of a new round of Indian tenders have boosted market sentiment. From the perspective of urea demand, June - July is still the peak season for top - dressing corn in the north, and the loosening of export policies and price drops will stimulate speculative demand. Therefore, the demand for urea in the next two months is expected to be good. Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1684 yuan/ton on June 27, up 2 yuan (0.12%) from June 26; UR05 closed at 1696 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.30%); UR09 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.41%); Shandong spot price was 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.56%) [1] - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices: In Shanxi, it was 1660 yuan/ton on June 27, up 10 yuan (0.61%); in Henan and Hebei, it remained at 1800 yuan/ton; in the Northeast, it was 1890 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1820 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.55%) [1] - Upstream costs: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream prices: The price of 45%S compound fertilizer in Shandong and Henan remained at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained at 5083 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 114 yuan/ton on June 27, up 5 yuan from June 26 [1] - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 12 yuan/ton on June 27, down 3 yuan from June 26 [1] 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1735 yuan/ton, with a high of 1740 yuan/ton, a low of 1712 yuan/ton, closed at 1717 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1723 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 222,536 lots [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities in urea futures, but be aware of the risk of changes in export policies [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The rebound of lead and zinc prices has limited sustainability. For lead, although the price has been rising due to raw material and production cuts in secondary lead, the downstream has not entered the peak season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, which restricts the upward momentum. For zinc, although the price has rebounded due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, the rebound may suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [1]. Summary by Related Information Lead - related Information - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 30, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton with no change; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,125 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the Shanghai lead basis was - 125 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 40,650 lots, down 22.78%; the open interest was 51,800 lots, up 1.21%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.78, down 23.70%; the LME inventory was 273,425 tons with no change; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 45,885 tons, up 1.34%; the closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) was 2,041.50 dollars/ton, up 0.15%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.39, down 0.73% [1]. - **Enterprise Operating Rates**: From June 21 to June 27, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 66.21%, down 3.8 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 34.6%, up 4.9 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 68.77%, down 4.05 percentage points month - on - month [1]. - **Enterprise Output**: According to Tibet珠峰's 2024 annual report, the total output of lead, zinc, and copper concentrate products was 93,700 tons, including 45,100 tons of lead metal (up 19.22% year - on - year), 47,500 tons of zinc metal (up 5.39% year - on - year), 1,149 tons of copper metal (up 28.99% year - on - year), and 74.27 tons of silver metal [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries has been rising, raw materials are in short supply, and some refineries have cut or stopped production. The demand side is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing is expected to improve, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation [1]. Zinc - related Information - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 30, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,500 yuan/ton, up 1.40%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,410 yuan/ton, up 0.76%; the Shanghai zinc basis was 140 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 225,824 lots, up 34.33%; the open interest was 142,428 lots, up 5.01%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.59, up 27.93%; the LME inventory was 119,225 tons with no change; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 6,372 tons, down 1.56%; the closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) was 2,778.50 dollars/ton, up 0.31%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.07, up 0.46% [1]. - **Enterprise Operating Rates**: From June 21 to June 27, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 56.21%, down 2.39 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 46.54%, down 8.58 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.72%, down 0.28 percentage points month - on - month [1]. - **Supply - side News**: In July, a zinc mine in North China plans to conduct maintenance for about 10 days, which will affect about 1,500 metal tons of zinc concentrate; as of June 27, the total inventory of zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 313,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, the restriction on refinery production due to raw material shortages has weakened, and the cost - side support has decreased. The demand side is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with high industry inventory pressure. The sudden production cut by Xinjiang silicon enterprises on the supply - side has supported the short - term silicon price, but the long - term oversupply situation remains [1]. - The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level driven by the increase in industrial silicon prices. However, due to the industry's overcapacity adjustment that requires time to be transmitted, the rebound space may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.02% to 8,030 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Northern silicon enterprises'开工 has changed little. The southwest production area is about to enter the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise 开工. The overall supply is increasing steadily [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. Organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak. The downstream is in a wait - and - see mood, and the actual transaction price has declined. The overall 开工 of domestic monomer enterprises has declined, and the demand for industrial silicon has further weakened. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the sudden production cut by Xinjiang silicon enterprises has supported the silicon price. In the long term, the oversupply situation remains, and continuous attention should be paid to the actual production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Data**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 31.5 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon dense material remained flat at 30.0 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 28.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 5.04% to 33,315 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and some polysilicon plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, but overall it will remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, slow - growing market demand, and weak transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level, but the rebound space may be limited. Continuous attention should be paid to the actual 开工 situation of the industrial chain [1]. Other Information - From June 20th to June 26th, the weekly output of sample silicon plants in Xinjiang was 34,220 tons, and the weekly 开工 rate was 71%, an increase from the previous week. Recently, news of production cuts by a large Xinjiang enterprise has spread, with more than 20 furnaces shut down, and the daily impact on production is expected to be about 1,500 - 1,700 tons. The duration of the production cut is uncertain, and the expected national supply in July has been lowered [1]. - On June 26th, Swiss solar panel manufacturer Meyer Burger applied for bankruptcy protection in the United States [1]. - Sunkind Energy has signed an agreement with Hangzhou ConfirmWare Technology Co., Ltd. to establish a 4GW solar battery pack production capacity in India [1].

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