Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to production and policy factors, the supply and demand of domestic bauxite in June are expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased month - on - month. The price of alumina may fluctuate widely, and the price of Shanghai aluminum may be cautiously strong. It is recommended that investors wait and see for alumina and try to go long on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data 1.1 Shanghai Aluminum Futures - The closing price of the active contract was 19,860 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 183,523 lots, up 12,432 lots; the open interest was 191,144 lots, down 4,520 lots; the inventory was 20,894 tons, down 224 tons [2] - The SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum average price was 20,120 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the Shanghai aluminum basis was 260 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 130 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] 1.2 Alumina Futures - The closing price was 2,998 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the trading volume was 423,143 lots, down 116,816 lots; the open interest was 311,224 lots, down 9,045 lots; the inventory was 113,487 tons, down 14,714 tons [2] - The basis was 277.52 yuan/ton, down 36.01 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 64 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 1.3 London Aluminum - The LME 3 - month aluminum futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,638.5 US dollars/ton, up 23.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 52.31 US dollars/ton, up 0.82 US dollars; the LME aluminum futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 116.75 US dollars/ton, up 11.74 US dollars; the Shanghai - London aluminum price ratio was 8.0389, down 0.08 [2] 2. Industry News 2.1 Alumina - Shanxi and Henan's bauxite mining has not fully resumed, and some enterprises in Guinea may stop production. Guangxi plans a ten - year special inspection. The price of bauxite may rise, and domestic bauxite production and imports in June may decrease [3] - The operating rate of China's alumina production capacity increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina decreased. New and renovated alumina production capacities are being built, which may increase the production of alumina [3] 2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Some electrolytic aluminum production capacities are expected to be put into production in the future, which may increase the domestic production of electrolytic aluminum in June. The import volume may increase, but the closed import window may limit imports [3] - The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in bonded areas increased, and the inventory in major consumption areas decreased. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises was stable overall, with some fluctuations [3] 2.3 Aluminum Alloy - The production and import of scrap aluminum in China may decrease in June due to factors such as competition in overseas scrap aluminum procurement and price differentials. The operating rate of some aluminum alloy production capacities decreased [3] 3. Transaction Strategies - For alumina, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 2,000 - 2,000 and the pressure level around 3,300 - 3,500 [3] - For Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low prices, paying attention to the support level around 19,800 - 20,000 and the pressure level around 20,300 - 20,500. For London aluminum, pay attention to the support level around 2,300 - 2,400 and the pressure level around 2,500 - 2,800 [3]

| 贵金属日评20250604:美国4月职位空缺数高于预期前值,欧元区5月CPI年率低于2% | 交易日期 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-05-27 | 2025-06-03 | 2025-05-30 | 收盘价 | 11. 30 | 11.50 | 783.10 | 771.80 | 771.60 | | | | | | 成交重 | 236013.00 | 228706.00 | 131022.00 | -104, 991. 00 | -97,684.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 180833.00 | 204795.00 | -413.00 | -23, 962. 00 | 181246.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | | | | 铅锌日评20250604：或有反弹 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 近期趋势 | 2025/6/4 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 元/吨 | 16,375.00 | -0.15% | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 16,570.00 | -0.30% | | | | | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | -195.00 | 25.00 | | | | | 升贴水-上海 | 元/吨 | -20.00 | - | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 美元/吨 美元/吨 | -19.72 -56.30 | 2.45 8.90 | | | | | 价差 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -40.00 | 45.00 | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 元/吨 | - | -10.00 | | | | | 沪铅连二 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests investors mainly lay out short positions when prices rebound, with a view score of -1 [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in June is expected to be loose, and the social inventory of domestic lithium carbonate has decreased compared to the previous week. The production, installation, and export volumes of lithium - ion batteries in June are expected to increase month - on - month, and the production and sales volumes of new energy vehicles in June are also expected to increase month - on - month. It is recommended to focus on the support level around 53,000 - 58,000 and the pressure level around 63,000 - 68,000 [1][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - On June 3, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 59,900 yuan/ton, 59,940 yuan/ton, 59,820 yuan/ton, and 59,820 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 305,161 lots, a decrease of 124,123 lots compared to the previous trading day. The open interest was 259,658 lots, a decrease of 1,351 lots compared to the previous trading day. The inventory remained unchanged at 33,457 tons [1] 3.2 Lithium Spot Prices - On June 3, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 60,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 58,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1] 3.3 Company News - Anhui Nandu Huajie New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.'s second - phase project with an annual production capacity of 4GWh large - capacity new - type power energy - storage batteries is installing equipment and is expected to be put into operation in August, with an expected new annual output value of 1.5 billion yuan [2] - Kube Energy's energy storage system R & D and production base project is located in Longhutang Street, Changzhou District, Jiangsu. The new project covers 11 production lines, with an expected annual production capacity of 10GWh after completion in April 2027 [3] - Zhonghe Titanium Dioxide plans to terminate two projects and use the remaining 1.666 billion yuan of raised funds to supplement working capital. Currently, its production layout includes an annual rutile - type titanium dioxide production capacity of 57,000 tons, an annual iron phosphate production capacity of 100,000 tons, an annual phosphate rock production capacity of 300,000 tons, and an annual yellow phosphorus production capacity of 2,700 tons [3] 3.4 Supply - side Situation - Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes 652,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, with the total production capacity reaching 240,000 tons per year, which may lead to a decline in the prices of domestic and imported lithium ores. The production and import volumes of lithium ores in China in June may increase or decrease. The production volume of lithium carbonate in China in June may increase month - on - month, and the supply is expected to be loose [4] 3.5 Demand - side Situation - The monthly average production cost of iron phosphate with different production processes in China is 11,000 - 19,000 yuan/ton, and the production (inventory) volume in June may increase or decrease. The monthly average production cost of lithium iron phosphate with different production processes in China is 24,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton, and the production volume in June may increase month - on - month [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 3, geopolitical risks in the international crude oil market increased, and the wildfires in Canada provided some support for oil prices, but the OPEC+ production increase plan suppressed oil prices. Multiple PX units restarted or increased their loads recently, increasing supply and reducing the overall destocking volume of PX. With strong polyester production cut sentiment, the market sentiment was affected. However, the spot market remained short of goods, so in the short term, the bottom of PX prices and PXN would still be supported. In the medium - term, PX would continue to destock in the next few months [2]. - PTA prices declined. Although geopolitical issues pushed up crude oil prices, the atmosphere of domestic bulk chemicals was weak. The destocking speed of PTA slowed down, and the spot basis weakened. Polyester new capacity ran smoothly with high operating rates, having a good rigid demand for PTA. In the short term, PTA spot prices would mainly follow the cost side. The operating load of polyester filament further declined, and the overall market sales were average, with most factories still having inventory pressure. During the tariff suspension period, the foreign trade market showed more quotations and samples, and some traders said there were large potential orders [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets declined. Polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures weakened. The supply side of bottle - chips mostly kept their quotes stable, and the downstream terminal buying enthusiasm was low, resulting in a stalemate in market transactions. Recently, some units in East China were under maintenance, the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased, but the overall market supply was still abundant [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate. (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Products**: On June 3, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $63.41 per barrel, up 4.31% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $65.63 per barrel, up 2.71%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $561.63 per ton, up 0.56%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $699.00 per ton, down 1.34%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $824.00 per ton, down 2.06% [1]. - **PTA Products**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,628 yuan per ton, down 1.53%; the settlement price was 4,708 yuan per ton, down 0.34%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,840 yuan per ton, down 2.02%; the settlement price was 4,888 yuan per ton, down 1.05%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,915 yuan per ton, down 0.55%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,905 yuan per ton, down 0.71%, and the CCFEI price index of external PTA was $634.00 per ton on June 2, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 180 yuan per ton, a decrease of 36 yuan, and the basis was 277 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan [1]. - **PX Products**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,524 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the settlement price was 6,636 yuan per ton, down 0.18%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 7,000 yuan per ton, up 6.74%; the settlement price was 6,822 yuan per ton, up 0.56%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,857 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR Taiwan, China) was $824.00 per ton, down 2.25%, and the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB South Korea) was $799.00 per ton, down 2.32%. The PXN spread was $262.38 per ton, down 7.23%, the PX - MX spread was $125.00 per ton, down 5.89%, and the basis was 333 yuan per ton, an increase of 94 yuan [1]. - **PR Products**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,912 yuan per ton, down 1.17%; the settlement price was 5,984 yuan per ton, down 0.30%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,950 yuan per ton, down 0.90%; the settlement price was 5,974 yuan per ton, down 0.50%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.42%, and in the South China market was 6,030 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. The basis in the East China market was 48 yuan per ton, an increase of 45 yuan, and in the South China market was 118 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,925 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,200 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,505 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,920 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.42% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 81.45% on June 3, up 2.27 percentage points from the previous value. The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.84%, up 3.01 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories was 89.71%, down 0.23 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 83.82%, down 0.37 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.80%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 39.00% on June 3, up 5 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 72.00%, up 13 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 101.00%, up 53 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA unit in the northwest planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategies - PTA opened high and closed low. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,623 yuan per ton, down 2.03%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.33 million lots. PX was weakly affected by costs. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,524 yuan per ton, down 1.87%, with an intraday trading volume of 25,040 lots. PR followed the cost trend. The 2507 contract closed at 5,912 yuan per ton, down 1.50%, with an intraday trading volume of 32,800 lots. It was expected that PX, PTA, and PR would fluctuate (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory pressure, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are unlikely to have an upward trend in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) decreased by 1.21% to 8,150 yuan/ton, and 421 (East China) decreased by 1.12% to 8,850 yuan/ton. The futures main - contract closing price dropped by 1.26% to 7,070 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the wet season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, with overall low willingness to resume production. The overall supply has declined [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and the resumption may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The domestic monomer enterprises' production is mixed, and the demand for industrial silicon is expected to further decline. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low prices is insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Due to the supply - demand imbalance and high inventory, it is recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling on price rebounds. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The prices of N - type dense material, polysilicon re - feeding material, polysilicon dense material, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained unchanged. The futures main - contract closing price dropped by 3.48% to 34,360 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises continue to cut production, and some may have new capacity put into operation. The output is expected to remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and continuous price drops of silicon wafers, cells, and components. Market demand has slowed down, and component delivery prices are close to new lows [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Given the weak fundamentals and difficult - to - solve over - capacity problem, it is recommended to short - sell on price rebounds and continuously monitor supply - side changes [1]. Other Information - From May 23 to May 29, the weekly output of sample silicon factories in Xinjiang was 27,120 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 59%, a 7 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The output of large factories in Xinjiang is expected to continue to increase, and the operating rate may further rise [1]. - Junda Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary signed a strategic cooperation agreement with a Turkish company to build a 2GW high - efficiency photovoltaic cell production base in Turkey [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent continuous decline of urea is mainly due to two reasons: the cost collapse caused by the continuous decline of coal prices and the lag in demand due to the delayed release of agricultural demand in some domestic regions because of weather conditions [1]. - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support the price. As it is still the peak season for top - dressing of crops such as corn and the upstream inventory pressure has significantly reduced, the possibility of a further sharp decline in urea prices is low. The risk to consider is the change in export policies [1]. - The strategy suggestion is to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from 1705 yuan/ton; UR05 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from 1721 yuan/ton; UR09 closed at 1773 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from 1784 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic spot prices: Shandong decreased by 0.53% to 1870 yuan/ton; Henan decreased by 0.54% to 1850 yuan/ton; other regions such as Shanxi, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 153 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 14 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1787 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1793 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1764 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1773 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1778 yuan/ton, and the position was 225127 lots [1].

| 贵金属日评20250603:沃勒表示长期通胀走高缺乏证据,乌克兰制造俄罗斯的珍珠港时刻 | 交易日期 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-05-26 | 2025-05-30 | 2025-05-29 | 收盘价 | 771.80 | 764. 32 | 777.30 | -5. 50 | 7. 48 | | | | | | 成交量 | 236013.00 | 296331.00 | -14,581.00 | -60, 318. 00 | 250594.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 216132.00 | 181246.00 | 195076.00 | -13,830.00 | -34,886.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 ...

| 元用目的 | | | 碳酸锂日评20250603:国内碳酸锂6月供给预期偏松,国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比减少 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-05-30 | 2025-05-29 | 2025-05-26 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 59840.00 | 58920.00 | 60260.00 | 920.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 59800.00 | 58860.00 | 60100.00 | 940.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 59840.00 | 59100.00 | 61120.00 | 740.00 | | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 59840.00 | 59100.00 | 61300.00 | 740.00 | | | | | 收盘价 | 59800.00 | 58860.00 | 60100.00 | 940.00 | | | 碳酸锂期货 | | 成交量(手) | 4292 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The report suggests that due to the increase in holiday overseas oil prices caused by intensified geopolitical conflicts, methanol is expected to open higher and may have a short - term rebound. However, it lacks upward momentum in the long run. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, and cost collapse still weighs heavily on coal - chemical products. But it is relatively inexpensive compared to downstream polyalkanes, and there is room for valuation repair. In terms of driving factors, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol is priced based on its fundamentals. Supply, including imports and inland supply, has rebounded rapidly, while demand has limited room for further growth, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation and insufficient upward momentum. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.61%) to 2275 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.67%) to 2217 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.45%) to 2208 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.56%) to 2242.5 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong remained unchanged at 2150 yuan/ton; the price in Guangdong increased by 2.5 yuan/ton (0.11%) to 2267.5 yuan/ton; the price in Shaanxi remained unchanged at 1955 yuan/ton; the price in Sichuan - Chongqing remained unchanged at 2210 yuan/ton; the price in Hubei remained unchanged at 2245 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.27%) to 1880 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 26.5 to - 32.5 [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and natural gas prices remained unchanged, including Ordos Q5500 at 425 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 at 470 yuan/ton, Yulin Q6000 at 492.5 yuan/ton, industrial natural gas in Hohhot at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, and in Chongqing at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1]. - **Methanol Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit remained unchanged at 309.7 yuan/ton; natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 520 yuan/ton; Northwest MTO profit remained unchanged at 619 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased by 26.5 yuan/ton (-11.06%) to - 266.07 yuan/ton; acetic acid profit decreased by 2.75 yuan/ton (-0.46%) to 595.43 yuan/ton; MTBE profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-9.44%) to 287.76 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit remained unchanged at - 181.20 yuan/ton [1]. b. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2220 yuan/ton, closing at 2208 yuan/ton, rising 7 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 701,459 lots and an open interest of 824,339 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 251 - 256 US dollars/ton, with a lack of active bids and offers. The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 1.3 - 1.6% compared to the previous period, and there were no reported real - deal transactions within the week. For other Middle - Eastern regions, the reference negotiation price of shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 0.5 - 1.1%, and methanol factories in other Middle - Eastern regions intended to set higher prices for product sales. Attention should be paid to the latest methanol tender results and shipping capacity of some factories in other Middle - Eastern regions [1]. c. Trading Strategy - It is expected that the increase in overseas oil prices during the holiday will drive methanol to open higher and may lead to a short - term rebound. However, methanol lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [1].