1. Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250917: Limited Rebound Space [1] 2. Price and Trading Data Shanghai Nickel Futures - **Futures Contracts**: On September 16, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 120,520 yuan/ton, 120,700 yuan/ton, 120,880 yuan/ton, and 121,110 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 110 yuan/ton, 140 yuan/ton, 170 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 104,592 lots (+1,913), and the open interest was 66,538 lots (-4,072) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 26,167 tons, an increase of 1,208 tons [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures showed various changes, such as the SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price basis was 990 yuan/ton (+570) [2]. London Nickel Futures - **Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,460 US dollars/ton, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,445 US dollars/ton, and the on - site closing price was 15,436 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume was 6,565 lots (-3,998) [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The LME nickel 0 - 3 months spread was -188.63 US dollars/ton, and the LME 3 - month nickel official price - electronic - disk closing price basis was 35 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 218,454 tons, and the total inventory was 226,434 tons [2]. Shanghai Stainless Steel Futures - **Futures Contracts**: On September 16, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts showed different changes. The trading volume was 230,776 lots (+49,842), and the open interest was 130,786 lots (-3,043) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 95,745 tons (-604) [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures also had corresponding changes, such as the 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) average price - active contract basis was 880 yuan/ton (+150) [2]. 3. Market News - In the second phase of September, the average price of nickel commodity mineral reference price (HPM) rose to $15,000.33 per dry ton, up from $14,899.64 per dry ton in the first phase. The prices of nickel ores with specific nickel content and different moisture contents (MC) are adjusted according to nickel content and moisture content [2]. 4. Core Views Nickel - On September 16, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened high and closed low. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. On the supply side, nickel ore prices were flat, port inventories increased, nickel - iron plant losses narrowed, domestic and Indonesian production increased, and nickel - iron destocked. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. Inventory increased in SHFE, LME, and the social market, while it decreased in the bonded area. The enhanced expectation of Fed rate cuts drives the rebound of non - ferrous metals, but nickel is restricted by weak fundamentals and inventory pressure, so the rebound of nickel prices is expected to be limited [2]. Stainless Steel - On September 16, the stainless steel main contract opened high and closed low. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The SHFE inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 596,300 tons (-15,400). On the supply side, stainless steel production in September increased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome were flat. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. 5. Trading Strategies Nickel - It is recommended to short at high levels after the rate cut is implemented [2]. Stainless Steel - It is recommended to wait and see [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures opened high and closed low. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the discount even widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, and the 3C shipments were average. The planned production of energy storage batteries increased in September. The registered warehouse inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. The expected supply contraction is weakening as the resumption of lithium mines is progressing actively. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Investors should be vigilant about the downstream restocking point [1]. - The trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 16, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 73060 yuan/ton, 73180 yuan/ton, 73340 yuan/ton, and 73340 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 540 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 500267 hands (+17477), and the open interest was 300437 hands (-9009) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 38824 tons (-139 tons) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 120 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 160 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 330 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 853 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1075 yuan/ton (-82.5 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 1815 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 6090 yuan/ton (+115 yuan/ton), and the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 7065 yuan/ton (-135 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 72850 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 70600 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.3 US dollars/kg (unchanged), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained/domestic) was 74050 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized/domestic) was 79020 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) was 56650 yuan/ton (+150 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 81250 yuan/ton (+600 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 79125 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 74675 yuan/ton (+225 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 93800 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 119650 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114375 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 118325 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 146650 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 33470 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy - storage type) was 32075 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) was 29300 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton), and the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 231500 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Cobalt - Related Product Prices**: The average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%/imported) was 273000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was 57400 yuan/ton (+725 yuan/ton), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%/domestic) was 226500 yuan/ton (+1500 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of smelters was 36213 tons (-3262 tons), the inventory of downstream sectors was 58279 tons (+3072 tons), the inventory of other sectors was 44020 tons (-1390 tons), and the total inventory was 138512 tons (-1580 tons) [1]. 3.4 Company News - On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate in Lanke Lithium Industry was upgraded through technological innovation, and the current capacity has been increased to 40,000 tons per year. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high - quality industrial development [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted due to the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut amplitude, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, and the high copper price suppressing potential demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,880, down 60 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,548 hands, an increase of 19,677; the open interest was 165,216 hands, a decrease of 14,040; the inventory was 33,692 tons, an increase of 3,049 [2] - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 240 on September 16, 2025, up 240 from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 81,120, up 180 [2] - **London Copper**: On September 16, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,117, down 72 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 59.26, up 2.67 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.6991, up 0.05; the total inventory was 312,868, an increase of 2,381 [2] 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of many copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared with last week. The supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, and the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates tend to decline. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increases month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo cut production in September 2025 due to water - power supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2] - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season leads to a recovery in the demand of some copper processing industries, but the high copper price makes downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventories and only make rigid - demand purchases [2] - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increases compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreases compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increases compared with last week [2] 3.3 Trading Strategy - For previous long positions, take profits at high prices or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 [2]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - For lead, the supply is tightening temporarily, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the pressure on non - ferrous metals eases. The lead price breaks through 17,000 yuan/ton and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. However, the limited improvement in demand may suppress the upside space of the lead price [1]. - For zinc, the fundamental situation of SHFE zinc remains weak, but the extremely low overseas LME zinc inventory and the continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3 support the zinc price strongly. With the impact of the interest - rate cut expectation, SHFE zinc is expected to be stronger in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to fundamental constraints [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the lead futures main contract decreased by 0.61% to 17,055 yuan/ton. The lead basis was - 105 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract decreased by 6.29% to 54,978 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.17% to 45,095 lots. The trading - to - open - interest ratio decreased by 2.21% to 1.22 [1]. - LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 227,850 tons, and SHFE lead warrant inventory remained unchanged at 59,417 tons. The closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) increased by 0.25% to 2,006.50 dollars/ton, and the SHFE - LME lead price ratio decreased by 0.86% to 8.50 [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, there is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee is likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead fluctuates slightly. For secondary lead, the refinery operation rate is less than 30% due to raw material and loss factors, and the supply tightens temporarily [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market shows no significant improvement, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. After the lead price broke through 17,000 yuan/ton last Friday, the downstream's purchasing sentiment improved slightly [1]. Investment Strategy - Keep an eye on profit protection for previous long positions [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots remained unchanged, and the closing price of the zinc futures main contract decreased by 0.25% to 22,255 yuan/ton. The zinc basis was - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract decreased by 1.22% to 96,641 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7.62% to 84,991 lots. The trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 6.93% to 1.14 [1]. - LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 48,975 tons, and SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 1.56% to 52,170 tons. The closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) increased by 0.08% to 2,984.50 dollars/ton, and the SHFE - LME zinc price ratio decreased by 0.33% to 7.46 [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output shows an obvious upward trend [1]. - On the demand side, the operation rate of downstream enterprises has increased significantly after the impacts of the parade and the SCO Summit dissipated. With the continuous decline of the SHFE - LME ratio, the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. Investment Strategy - Try to go long with a light position at low prices [1]. Industry News - The geological environmental protection and land reclamation plans of 25 mines, including the Situpu Tungsten Mine in Anhua County, have passed the review [1]. - On September 15, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 47.54 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 9,406 lots to 165,902 lots. The [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 26.76 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 13,993 lots to 218,799 lots [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures market has strengthened again recently due to potential supply-side disturbances. It is expected that the silicon price may remain at a high level in the short term, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. The polysilicon price is also in a high-level consolidation, and the spot price increase faces pressure [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing steadily, while the demand is mixed. The polysilicon industry has a certain demand increment, but the organic silicon and silicon-aluminum alloy industries have different situations [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - On September 17, 2025, the average price of non-oxygenated 553 industrial silicon in East China increased by 1.11% to 9,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 increased by 1.05% to 9,600 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, up 1.31% [1]. - The prices of N-type polysilicon materials such as N-type dense material, N-type re-feeding material, N-type mixed material, and N-type granular silicon all increased, with increases ranging from 1.84% to 2.06%. The futures main contract closed at 53,670 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [1]. Market Supply and Demand - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: With the continuous rise of silicon prices, some previously overhauled silicon factories in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, and the power cost is at a low level throughout the year, so the enterprise start-up rate has steadily recovered, and the supply has increased steadily [1]. - **Industrial Silicon Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, but some silicon material factories have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments. The organic silicon market has supply pressure, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, with low inventory willingness [1]. - **Polysilicon Supply**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will increase slightly, with an estimated output of nearly 110,000 tons in July and about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - **Polysilicon Demand**: The trading volume in the polysilicon market has increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase faces resistance [1]. Investment Strategies - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt interval operation, buy out-of-the-money put options, and consider participating in the 2511 and 2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Before the implementation of supply-side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. Industry News - Hebei Kuntian New Energy Co., Ltd.'s silicon-carbon anode material production line (Phase I, 1,000 tons) has been officially put into operation and started small-scale supply to domestic and foreign leading customers. The company has planned a Phase II expansion plan, aiming for an annual production capacity of 5,000 tons after the completion of both phases [1]. - On September 12, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Overall Plan for the 'Three-North' Shelter Forest Program", proposing to actively promote photovoltaic sand control in the northern wind-sand area and the northwest desert area [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weak performance of US employment data in August, the flat year-on-year rate of core CPI in the consumer inflation, and Trump's continuous pressure or replacement of Fed officials have led more Fed officials to support interest rate cuts. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Coupled with geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1] Summary of Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 829.72 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 9,882.00 and an open interest of 208,096.00. The inventory remained unchanged at 53,226.00 (in ten grams) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T+D**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 829.72 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 9,882.00 and an open interest of 208,096.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 3,677.60 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 220,410.00 and an open interest of 385,580.00. The inventory was 39,180,931.12 (in gold ounces) [1] - **London Gold Spot**: On September 16, 2025, the price was 3,632.65 US dollars/ounce [1] - **SPDR Gold ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 979.95 tons [1] - **iShare Gold ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 464.57 tons [1] - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 10,017.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 356,647.00 and an open interest of 195,504.00 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T+D**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 10,017.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 356,647.00 and an open interest of 195,504.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 43.19 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 63,715.00 and an open interest of 134,910.00. The inventory was 518,898,317.13 (in silver ounces) [1] - **London Silver Spot**: On September 16, 2025, the price was 42.69 US dollars/ounce [1] - **US iShare Silver ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 15,137.37 tons [1] - **TPSLV Silver ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 6,129.64 tons [1] Important Information - Milan has been confirmed as a Fed governor and will participate in this week's interest rate decision. The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove a Fed governor, and Cook is allowed to attend this week's interest rate decision [1] - US House Republicans proposed a short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, but ignored the Democrats' healthcare requirements. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, and real retail sales have increased for 11 consecutive months [1] Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to go long when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On September 16, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $64.52 per barrel, up 1.93% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $68.47 per barrel, up 1.53% [1]. - **Naphtha and Xylene**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $604.88 per ton, down 0.60%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $680.00 per ton, down 0.66% [1]. - **PX**: The spot price of p - xylene CFR China Main Port was $834.00 per ton, down 0.24%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was unchanged at 6617 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $229.13 per ton, up 0.71%, and the PX - MX spread was $154.00 per ton, up 1.65% [1]. - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4688 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4618 yuan per ton, up 0.39% [1]. - **PR**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5846 yuan per ton, up 0.24%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5850 yuan per ton, up 0.34% [1]. Supply and Demand Information - **PX**: International crude oil has cost support for PX, but the improvement of domestic PX supply capacity and poor demand follow - up have pressured market confidence. The domestic and overseas PX device loads are on the rise, and the downstream polyester season has not seen an over - expected increase in new orders and loads [2]. - **PTA**: The fundamentals have no obvious changes. Crude oil provides cost support under low processing fees, but the sufficient PTA spot restricts the increase. A 4.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China will restart, increasing supply. The polyester raw material end starts to pick up significantly, while the polyester and downstream starts to pick up slowly, and the demand for the peak season is expected to weaken [2]. - **PR**: The downstream demand is average. The supply of bottle chips is stable, and the market spot is sufficient. Downstream terminals purchase on demand with a cautious attitude [2]. Device Information - The 1.2 - million - ton PTA device of Ningbo Taihua stopped on September 5 [2]. Trading Volume Information - The trading volume of the PX2511 contract was 173,400 lots, the trading volume of the TA2601 contract was 640,200 lots, and the trading volume of the PR2511 contract was 34,100 lots [2]. Operating Rate Information - The operating rates of the PX, PTA factory, polyester factory, bottle chip factory, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged on September 16, 2025, at 87.16%, 78.25%, 88.78%, 74.19%, and 65.54% respectively [1]. Sales Rate Information - On September 16, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 40.95%, down 12.43 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 65.07%, up 14.44 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 120.74%, up 40.47 percentage points [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to uncertainties in the Fed's future rate - cut amplitude, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season but the high copper price suppressing potential demand, the Shanghai copper price may experience adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Overview - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,880, down 60 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,548 hands, an increase of 19,677 hands; the open interest was 165,216 hands, a decrease of 14,040 hands; the inventory was 33,692 tons, an increase of 3,049 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium**: The Shanghai copper basis was 240 on September 16, 2025, up 240 from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 81,120, up 180 from the previous day [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 16, 2025, was 10,117, down 72 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 59.26, up 2.67 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on September 16, 2025, was 4.6991, up 0.05 from the previous day. The total inventory was 312,868, an increase of 2,381 from the previous day [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared to last week. The supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, causing the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates to decline. Copper smelters' maintenance capacity in September increased month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the DRC reduced production in September 2025 due to water - power supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the DRC [2]. - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season has led to a recovery in demand in some copper - processing industries. However, high copper prices have made downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventories and only make rigid - demand purchases [2]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared to last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - For previous long positions, take profits at high prices or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 [2].

Commodity Price Information - Crude oil price on September 16, 2025, was $604.88 per ton, up 0.60% from the previous day [1] - Northeast Asia ethylene price on September 16, 2025, was $851 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - East China ethylene oxide ex - factory price on September 16, 2025, was $6300 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Inner Mongolia brown coal price on September 16, 2025, was $290 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Main contract settlement price on September 16, 2025, was $4298 per ton, up 0.49% from the previous day [1] - Near - month contract closing price on September 16, 2025, was $4338 per ton, up 0.81% from the previous day [1] - Inner - market ethylene glycol price on September 16, 2025, was $4380 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Near - far month price difference on September 16, 2025, was - $21 per ton [1] - Ethylene glycol comprehensive price difference on September 16, 2025, was - $14 per ton [1] Operating Rate and Load Rate - Oil - based ethylene glycol operating rate on September 16, 2025, was 65% [1] - Coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate on September 16, 2025, was 8.14% [1] - PTA factory load rate on September 16, 2025, was 88.88% [1] - Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA textile machine industry load rate on September 16, 2025, was 65.54% [1] Other Information - Outer - market oil - based ethylene glycol price on September 16, 2025, was $126.89 per ton, a decrease of $5.64 from the previous day [1] - Outer - market ethylene price on September 16, 2025, was $141.11 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method on September 16, 2025, was $1511.08 per ton, a decrease of $13.8 from the previous day [1] - Polyester price index on September 16, 2025, was $8550 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Polyester staple fiber price index on September 16, 2025, was $640 per ton, up 0.8% from the previous day [1] - Bottle - grade chip price index on September 16, 2025, was $5850 per ton, up 0.34% from the previous day [1]

Report Title - Black Metal Weekly Report - Iron Ore [1] Report Date - September 16, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of iron ore has recovered this period, with a significant rebound in shipments and a decline in arrivals compared to the previous period. On the demand side, after the parade, blast furnaces resumed production, and the molten iron output returned to the level before September 3. Overall, both supply and demand increased, with limited overall contradictions and intensified long - short game. In terms of valuation, the recent continuous contraction of spot and futures steel profits per ton has an impact on the raw material fluctuation rhythm. Unilateral attention should be paid to the fluctuation range of 95 (756) - 105 (836) US dollars [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental and Conclusion - **Price**: Last week, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore rebounded, with weekly increases ranging from 2 - 15 yuan. As of September 15, the Platts 62% index closed at $105.5, down $0.2 week - on - week, equivalent to about 874 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.12. The optimal deliverable product is NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 785 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 811 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 14,456.12 tons, an increase of 30 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 1,154 tons from the beginning of the year, and 1,584 tons lower than the inventory at the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may decrease in the next period [7]. - **Supply** - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments this period were 3,573.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 816.9 tons. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2,850.8 tons, an increase of 583.8 tons. Australian shipments were 1,981.6 tons, an increase of 202.0 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 1,736.7 tons, an increase of 244.5 tons. Brazilian shipments were 869.3 tons, an increase of 381.8 tons [8]. - **Arrivals**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,392.3 tons, a decrease of 180.6 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2,362.3 tons, a decrease of 85.7 tons; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1,245.0 tons, a decrease of 75.0 tons [8]. - **Demand** - **Molten iron output**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills increased this week, reaching 240.55 tons/day, an increase of 11.71 tons/day compared to last week, a decrease of 4.22 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 17.17 tons/day year - on - year. There were 25 new blast furnace复产 and 3 blast furnace overhauls this period [10]. - **Profit**: As of September 12, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3,135 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about 54.75 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 164.75 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (according to Fubao's data) was about 3,312 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,185 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 262 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 135 yuan [10]. 2. Data Combing - **Iron ore warehouse receipt price**: The optimal deliverable product is NM powder, with a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 811 yuan/ton. Other varieties also have corresponding chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, and converted warehouse receipt prices [16]. - **Iron ore inter - delivery spread**: As of September 15, the spread between iron ore 1 - 5 contracts closed at 21.5 (- 2.5) [19]. - **Iron ore import profit**: Not mentioned in the report - **High - low grade spread**: Not mentioned in the report - **Premium index**: As of September 11, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.1825 (+ 0.0005), and the premium index for 65% pellets was 16.6 (-) [29]. - **Brand premium (discount) and inventory**: Various brands such as Mac powder, PB powder, and Jinbuba powder have corresponding inventory trends and premium (discount) data in 15 ports [31]. - **Steel mill sintered powder inventory**: As of September 12, the inventory of imported sintered powder decreased by 70.7 tons compared to September 5, a decrease of 5.75%; the inventory of domestic sintered powder decreased by 0.7 tons, a decrease of 0.94%; and the average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1.0 days, a decrease of 4.76% [34]. - **Imported ore inventory and daily consumption of 247 steel mills**: As of September 12, the imported ore inventory of steel mills increased by 53.18 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 0.59%; the daily consumption of imported ore increased by 15.98 tons, an increase of 5.69%; and the inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore decreased by 1.53 days, a decrease of 4.80% [37]. - **Port inventory and berthing**: The total port inventory (45 ports), berthing ship numbers at 47 ports, and the inventory of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores at ports all have corresponding data trends [40]. - **Port inventory by ore type**: As of September 12, the inventory of imported port lump ore increased by 42 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 2.68%; the inventory of pellet ore increased by 3 tons, an increase of 1.06%; the inventory of iron concentrate decreased by 30 tons, a decrease of 2.67%; and the inventory of coarse powder increased by 8 tons, an increase of 0.08% [43]. - **Surcharge**: The surcharge volume has corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [46]. - **Iron ore in - transit volume**: The in - transit volume of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries to China has corresponding data trends [49]. - **Iron ore import quantity**: The import quantities of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries have corresponding data trends [52]. - **Australian iron ore shipments**: As of September 12, Australian shipments to China were 1,737 tons, an increase of 245 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 16.39%; the total Australian shipments were 1,982 tons, an increase of 202.1 tons, an increase of 11.36%; and the proportion of shipments to China increased from 83.86% to 87.64% [62]. - **Brazilian iron ore shipments**: As of September 12, Brazilian shipments to the world were 869 tons, an increase of 382 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 78.32% [67]. - **Shipments of the four major mines**: As of September 12, the shipments of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and FMG to China increased by 139 tons, 27 tons, 259 tons, and 72 tons respectively compared to September 5, with increases of 27.85%, 6.01%, 73.59%, and 21.89% respectively, and the total shipments increased by 497 tons, an increase of 30.47% [68]. - **Iron ore arrivals**: As of September 12, the arrivals at 45 ports were 0 tons, a decrease of 2,448 tons compared to September 5, a decrease of 100.0%; the arrivals at northern ports were 1,245 tons, a decrease of 75 tons, a decrease of 5.7% [75]. - **Freight rates**: The freight rates of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao have corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [77]. - **Domestic ore production (estimated)**: As of September 12, the output of iron concentrate from mines was 77.7 tons, an increase of 4.0 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 5.42%; the inventory of iron concentrate from mines was 35 tons, an increase of 1 ton, an increase of 2.84% [79]. - **Steel mill powder daily consumption and steel mill capacity utilization**: As of September 12, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.2%, an increase of 4.39 percentage points compared to September 5, an increase of 5.12%; the daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 62.2 tons, an increase of 9.84 tons, an increase of 18.80%; the daily consumption of domestic ore sintered powder was 9.2 tons, an increase of 1.50 tons, an increase of 19.43%; and the average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons, an increase of 5.12% [81]. - **Pig iron production**: The daily average pig iron production of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association has corresponding data trends from 2016 - 2025, and there are also year - on - year growth rates for 2024/2023 and 2025/2024 [87]. - **Global pig iron production**: The pig iron production of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China has corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [90]. - **Global (excluding China) pig iron production**: The pig iron production of regions outside China has corresponding data trends from 2017 - 2025, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates [95].