Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On September 15, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The current supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure of upstream is not large. With the active promotion of the resumption of key mines, the expectation of supply contraction weakens. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 15, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared with September 12. The trading volume was 482,790 lots (+71,801), and the open interest was 309,446 lots (+44). The registered warehouse receipts were 38,963 (+338) tons [1]. Spot Market - The spot market trading was weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the mica price remained stable. The prices of some lithium - related products such as lithium phosphate aluminum stone and ternary precursor also changed to varying degrees [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, and the output of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. In September, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate increased. - Demand side: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate increased, the output of ternary materials decreased, and the output of power batteries increased. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries in September will increase [1]. Inventory - Social inventory decreased. Refineries and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors accumulated inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,580 tons compared with the previous week [1]. Important Information - On September 15, Savama Resources Plc, a London - listed company, said that after completing additional exploration work, the reserve estimate of its lithium mine project in northern Portugal increased by 40%. The pegmatite reserve of Barroso resources is now expected to exceed 39 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 28 million tons, becoming the largest pegmatite deposit in Europe [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the current urea spot price is oscillating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips after the spot price stabilizes. Specifically, it is advisable to pay attention to the buying - on - dips opportunity of the 01 contract [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 15, compared with September 12, UR01 futures price increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.20%) to 1683 yuan/ton, UR05 increased by 13 yuan/ton (0.76%) to 1731 yuan/ton, and UR09 increased by 180 yuan/ton (11.46%) to 1750 yuan/ton [1] - In terms of domestic spot prices (small - granular), prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased, with price changes of - 20 yuan/ton (- 1.20%), - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.61%), and - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.61%) respectively, while prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - On September 15, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton compared with September 12; the 01 - 05 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream anthracite prices in Henan, Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream prices: the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) to 5083 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1666 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1688 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1665 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1683 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton [1] Long - Short Logic - Recently, there has been a resurgence of anti - involution sentiment in coking coal. The sharp rise of coking coal in the night session yesterday drove the coal - chemical sentiment to be relatively strong [1] - From a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1] - From a driving perspective, there are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renovation, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80%, and there is not much idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations, the urea exports from September to October are relatively promising [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weak performance of the US employment data in August, the flat year-on-year rate of core CPI in the consumer inflation meeting expectations and the previous value, and Trump's continuous pressure or replacement of Fed officials, along with more Fed officials supporting interest rate cuts, make the market expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Coupled with geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1] Summary by Directory Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price on September 15 was 831.60 yuan/gram, down 2.62 yuan from the previous week and 2.88 yuan from September 9. The trading volume was 262,249, with a decrease of 39,058 from the previous week. The open interest of the active futures contract was 104,349, a decrease of 20,532. The inventory was 53,226 (in ten grams). The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 828.03 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 33,778 and an open interest of 212,400. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was -1.72, and the basis between the spot and futures was -3.57 [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price on September 15 was 10,035 yuan/ten grams, down 18 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was -271,791, and the open interest of the active futures contract was 204,407, a decrease of 14,921. The inventory was -3,088 (in ten grams). The closing price of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 9,994 yuan/ten grams, with a trading volume of -260,572 and an open interest of 3,477,766. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was -143, and the basis between the spot and futures was 1 [1] - **International Gold**: The closing price of the COMEX futures active contract on September 15 was 3,719.50 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 184,826 and an open interest of 385,713. The inventory was 38,914,490.82 (in troy ounces). The price of London gold spot was 3,651.10 US dollars/ounce. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF were 974.80 tons, and the holdings of iShare Gold ETF were 2.93 tons. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was -3.40, and the basis between the spot and futures was -45.25 [1] - **International Silver**: The closing price of the COMEX futures active contract on September 15 was 42.68 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 46,674 and an open interest of 133,690. The price of London silver spot was 42.26 US dollars/ounce. The holdings of the US iShare - Silver ETF were 15,069.60 tons. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was -0.42, and the basis between the spot and futures was -0.42 [1] - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 83.02, the ratio of Shanghai gold spot to Shanghai silver spot was 82.85, the ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 86.24, and the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 88.22 [1] - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 475.30 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 0.59 US dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 62.60 US dollars/barrel. Shanghai copper futures were 79,650 yuan/ton, LME spot copper was 10,189 US dollars/ton. Shanghai rebar was 3,127 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 796 yuan/ton. The US dollar index was 97.7357, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate was 7.1019, and the euro - RMB central parity rate was 8.3327. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and UK FTSE 100 also had corresponding price changes [1] Important Information - The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook, clearing the way for Cook to attend the Fed meeting on September 16 - 17 [1] - The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Phillip Swagel said that Trump's tariff policy would reduce the US budget deficit by 4 trillion US dollars in the next decade [1] Trading Strategy - It is advisable to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 US dollars/ounce and the resistance levels around 3,650 - 3,750/3,840 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 850 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 43 - 46 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ten grams and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 yuan/ten grams [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation has increased, and the traditional peak consumption season has led to an initial recovery in downstream demand, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. Traders are advised to mainly lay out long positions after the price retreats, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,940, a decrease of 120 from the previous day; the trading volume was 68,871 lots, a decrease of 22,685; the open interest was 179,256 lots, a decrease of 7,620; the inventory was 30,643 tons, an increase of 5,083 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 0, an increase of 305; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price was 80,940, an increase of 185; various copper premium/discount prices showed different changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,189, an increase of 121.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.93, an increase of 11.49; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 158.15, an increase of 9.33; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9439, a decrease of 0.11 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.719, an increase of 0.05; the total inventory was 305,345 (with a change of - 309,834 compared to a previous value) [2]. Important Information - Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Congo - Kinshasa region have reduced production due to water and electricity supply shortages in September 2025, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Congo - Kinshasa, which poses challenges to the production recovery in the Congo - Kinshasa as most of its copper production uses the mixed - process method [2]. Multi - Empty Logic - **Supply Side**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared to last week. The supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates is tight, the supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, leading to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September has increased month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Congo - Kinshasa reduced production in September 2025 due to water and electricity supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Congo - Kinshasa [2]. - **Demand Side**: The expectation of the traditional peak consumption season has led to a partial recovery in the demand of some copper processing industries, but the high copper price suppresses the downstream potential demand [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy Traders should mainly lay out long positions after the price retreats. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts drives the rebound of non - ferrous metals, but nickel is restricted by weak fundamentals and inventory pressure, so the rebound range of nickel prices is expected to be limited [1]. - For stainless steel, although the fundamentals are loose, there is support at the cost end, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 122,500 yuan/ton, 122,580 yuan/ton, 122,820 yuan/ton, and 122,480 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 700 yuan/ton, 600 yuan/ton, 660 yuan/ton, and 680 yuan/ton compared to September 12 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 123,000 yuan/ton, 1 Jinchuan nickel's average price was 124,000 yuan/ton, and 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel)'s average price was 122,150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel iron mills' loss margins narrowed. In September, domestic and Indonesian nickel iron production increased, and nickel iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary material production decreased; stainless steel mills' production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventories increased, LME inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [1]. - **LME Market**: On September 15, 2025, LME 3 - month nickel's closing price (electronic trading) was 15,391 US dollars/ton, up 34 US dollars/ton. The trading volume was 7,041 lots, an increase of 2,045 lots [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12,800 yuan/ton, 12,960 yuan/ton, 13,070 yuan/ton, and 13,110 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Spot Prices**: 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) average price was 13,800 yuan/ton, 304/2B coil - rough (Wuxi) average price was 13,250 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: Stainless steel production increased in September [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost**: High - nickel pig iron prices rose, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventories decreased, and last week's 300 - series social inventories were 96,600 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons [1]. Industry News - Minmetals Resources (MMG) expects its $500 million acquisition of Anglo American's nickel mine assets to be approved by the EU, although the Brazilian competition regulator has launched an investigation into the deal [1]. Trading Strategies - For nickel, it is recommended to short at high levels after the interest - rate cut is implemented [1]. - For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to low - buying opportunities for methanol. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventory and insufficient restocking power of MTO enterprises, considering the low spot price in East China and the approaching traditional downstream peak season, there may be opportunities for the price to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Methanol futures prices: MA01 increased from 2379 yuan/ton on 2025/9/12 to 2396 yuan/ton on 2025/9/15, a rise of 0.71%; MA05 rose from 2385 yuan/ton to 2408 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96%; MA09 soared from 2230 yuan/ton to 2377 yuan/ton, a jump of 6.59% [1]. - Methanol spot prices: Prices in most regions changed slightly. For example, the price in Taicang increased by 0.66%, while those in Shandong, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged. Prices in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.70% and 0.35% respectively [1]. - Coal and natural gas prices: The price of Port Shuohuang Q5500 coal increased by 1.01%, and that of Datong Q5500 coal rose by 2.71%. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained stable [1]. - Profit situation: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 455.20 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - to - methanol stayed at - 382.00 yuan/ton. The profit of East China MTO decreased by 10.70%, while the profit of MTBE increased by 15.53% [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2601 rose strongly, opening at 2385 yuan/ton and closing at 2396 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 498,181 lots and a position of 783,891 lots, showing increased volume and reduced positions [1]. - Overseas: Due to the shutdown and maintenance of a small number of methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country, the overall methanol operating rate in that country dropped to 65.45%, an 8 - 9 percentage - point decrease compared to the previous period, but the loading speed at the port was relatively normal [1]. 3.3 Multi - Short Logic - Positive factor: The anti - involution sentiment of coking coal has resurfaced, and the sharp rise of coking coal in the night session yesterday drove the sentiment of the coal - chemical industry to be strong [1]. - Negative factors: The current low - level oscillation of methanol spot prices is mainly due to high port inventory and low downstream profits in the inland areas, which suppress the upward space. In the short term, the upward drive is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventory and the insufficient restocking power of MTO enterprises [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views - **Lead**: Supply is temporarily tightened, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the pressure on non - ferrous metals is reduced. The lead price has broken through 17,000 yuan/ton. However, limited improvement in demand may suppress the upside space of the lead price. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc remains weak, but the extremely low LME zinc inventory overseas and the continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3 support the upward movement of the London zinc price, which in turn boosts Shanghai zinc. With the impact of the interest - rate cut expectation, Shanghai zinc is expected to be in a moderately strong consolidation in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to fundamental constraints [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,950 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; futures主力合约收盘价 is 17,160 yuan/ton, up 0.70%; LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) is 2,001.50 dollars/ton, down 0.79%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead price is 8.57, up 1.51%. Futures active contract trading volume is 58,666 hands, down 7.51%; futures active contract open interest is 47,056 hands, down 9.83%. LME inventory is 225,625 tons, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 59,417 tons, down 0.11% [1]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: Lead concentrate imports are not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in primary lead production. In the secondary lead sector, due to raw materials and losses, the refinery's operating enthusiasm has weakened, and the scope of production cuts has expanded, with the current operating rate below 30% [1]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: The terminal market has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect has not been reflected. Dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales. After the lead price broke through 17,000 yuan/ton last Friday, downstream buyers were afraid of high prices, and the purchasing sentiment improved slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Protect the profits of previous long positions [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,160 yuan/ton; futures主力合约收盘价 is 22,310 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) is 2,982 dollars/ton, up 0.88%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc price is 7.48, down 0.85%. Futures active contract trading volume is 97,830 hands, down 5.57%; futures active contract open interest is 92,003 hands, down 5.83%. LME inventory is 50,150 tons, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 51,371 tons, up 11.91% [1]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The profit and production enthusiasm of refineries have improved, and the output shows an obvious increasing trend [1]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: After the impact of the parade and the SCO Summit dissipates, the downstream enterprises' operating rate has increased significantly, and demand has improved. Also, as the Shanghai - London ratio continues to decline, the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Although the current spot price of urea is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. It is suggested to pay attention to the buying opportunity of the 01 contract at low prices [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 15, compared with September 12, UR01 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1683 yuan/ton, a change of 1.20%; UR05 increased by 13 yuan/ton to 1731 yuan/ton, a change of 0.76%; UR09 increased by 180 yuan/ton to 1750 yuan/ton, a change of 11.46% [1]. - Among domestic spot prices, Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, a change of -1.20%; Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, a change of -0.61%; Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, a change of -0.61%. The prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 33 yuan/ton to -91 yuan/ton; the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 7 yuan/ton to -48 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively; the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 5083 yuan/ton, a change of -0.33%, and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1666 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1688 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1665 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1683 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton [1]. Long - Short Logic - Recently, the anti - involution sentiment of coking coal has a tendency to rise again. The sharp rise of coking coal in the night session yesterday drove the sentiment of the coal chemical industry to be strong [1]. - From a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1]. - From a driving perspective, there are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year. First, there is an expectation of renewal and transformation of old devices on the supply side, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old, and the current comprehensive operating rate of urea is over 80%, with little idle capacity. Second, there is an expectation of improvement in exports on the demand side. With the easing of Sino - Indian relations, the urea exports from September to October are quite promising [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. With the active resumption of key mines, the expectation of supply contraction has weakened. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, 5 - consecutive - one, 3 - consecutive - two, 3 - consecutive - three, and other contracts of lithium carbonate futures all increased compared to September 12. For example, the near - month contract closed at 72,520 yuan/ton, up 1,340 yuan from September 12. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on September 15 was 482,790 lots (+71,801), and the open interest was 309,446 lots (+44). [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market trading was weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from September 12. [1] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 848 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars from September 12; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,075 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,975 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,065 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. [1] - **Demand**: - **Downstream Product Production**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. [1] - **Terminal Demand**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down; the 3C product shipments were average; the production of energy - storage batteries will increase in September. [1] 3.4 Inventory - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts were 38,963 tons (+338). [1] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while the downstream inventory increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 138,512 tons, down 1,580 tons from last week. [1] 3.5 Important Information On September 15, London - listed Savannah Resources said that after completing additional exploration work, the reserve estimate of its lithium mine project in northern Portugal increased by 40%. The spodumene reserve of Barroso resources is now expected to exceed 39 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 28 million tons, making it the largest spodumene deposit in Europe. [1] 3.6 Investment Strategy It is recommended to short at high levels. [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon price is in high - level consolidation. The supply side has potential disturbances, and the short - term price may maintain high - level consolidation, but there is a risk of a price drop if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts. The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase slightly, and the price is also in high - level consolidation. The high inventory of downstream raw materials makes it difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term, which may suppress the price [1]. 3. Summary by Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) was stable at 9,500 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.63% to 8,800 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions (such as Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan) remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: As the silicon price rises, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up rates. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans; the organic silicon market has supply fluctuations, and silicon alloy enterprises purchase as needed with low inventory - building willingness [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt range - bound operations, buy out - of - the - money put options, and consider participating in the reverse spread of contracts 2511 and 2512 [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.12% to 53,545 yuan/ton. The prices of N - type silicon wafers (210mm, 210R, 183mm) increased, while the prices of some battery cells and components remained flat [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Silicon material enterprises continue to cut production, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output. The trading volume in the polysilicon market has increased significantly, and inventory has decreased. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase faces resistance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly buying on dips [1]. Industry News - On September 11, the IPO application of China Power Construction New Energy Group Co., Ltd. was accepted. The company plans to raise 9 billion yuan and drive a total investment of 48.481 billion yuan in wind and solar power projects, with an expected new installed capacity of 8.46 million kilowatts [1]. - On September 12, the Ningxia Development and Reform Commission solicited opinions on establishing a generation - side capacity price mechanism. The capacity price standards for coal - fired power units and grid - side new energy storage will be 100 yuan/kilowatt - year from October to December 2025 and 165 yuan/kilowatt - year from January 2026 [1].