| 1.9月12日消息:印尼矿业部官员Ralke Jeffi Huwae表示,印尼一支执法小组泼收了韦达河148公顷(366英亩)的银矿产区,原 | | | --- | --- | | 国是该矿场表获得相应的林业许可证,韦达湾躲矿区拥有合法的采矿许可证。这一举措是政府针对非法开采自然资源行为 | | | 资讯 | 所采取的更广泛打击行动的一部分。总检察署的一位高级检察官Febrie Adransvah表示,该执法小组还查封了苏拉威西省东南 | | 部PT Tonia Mitra Sejahtera公司的一处172.8公顷的矿区。他说,这类420万公顷被认定为缺少适当的林业许可证的矿区的一部分 | | | 。(文华财经) | | | 【多空逻辑】 | | | 9月12日,沪辖主力合约低开高走,成交量为145101手(+57563),持仓量为72640手(-9051),伦铁涨1.59%。现货市场成交 | | | 一般,甚差升水扩大。供给端,锲矿价格持平,上周级矿到浩量减少,港口库存累序:铁铁厂亏损幅度收窄,9月国内排产 | | | 增加,印尼排产增加,镍铁去停;9月国内史解像排产增加,出口盈利扩大。需求端,三元裤 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak performance of the US employment data in August, the core CPI annual rate of consumer - end inflation meeting expectations and the previous value, more Fed officials supporting interest rate cuts, and Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials have led the market to expect that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points consecutively in September, October, and December. Combined with geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data Summary **Gold** - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 4.25 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 36,270 and a position of 206,336. The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts was 1.72, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 3.88 [1]. - International Gold: The closing price of the COMEX active futures contract was 3,680.70, with a trading volume of 147,566 and a position of 385,713. The London gold spot price was 3,546.30 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF held 974.80 tons, and the iShare Gold ETF held 457.86 tons [1]. **Silver** - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 9,772.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a trading volume of 304,080 and a position of - 78,720. The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 75.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 15.00 [1]. - International Silver: The closing price of the COMEX active futures contract was 41.32, with a trading volume of 66,072 and a position of 133,690. The London silver spot price was 42.26 dollars/ounce. The US iShare - Silver ETF held 15,230.57 tons, and the Canadian PSLV Silver ETF held 6,129.64 tons [1]. Important Information - The US government is facing a "shutdown" crisis again due to the Democrats' demand to include the subsidy extension of the Affordable Care Act in the government appropriation bill. If the subsidy expires, the medical insurance premiums of about 22.4 million Americans will rise significantly [1]. - The "Central Bank Super Week" is coming, and major central banks such as the Fed, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions [1]. Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to buy on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,650 - 3,750. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 38 - 39 and the resistance level around 41 - 43. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,000 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,500 [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On September 12, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The spot market had more low - price transactions, and the basis premium narrowed. With the decline in lithium spodumene concentrate prices and stable lithium mica prices on the cost side, the supply of lithium carbonate increased last week from all raw material sources. In terms of downstream demand, the output of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the output of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the output of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production in August was high, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts increased, and social inventory decreased. Both smelters and others reduced inventory, while downstream inventory was tight. Overall, both supply and demand are strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not large, and the expected supply contraction is weakening. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate downward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 71180.00 yuan/ton, 71020.00 yuan/ton, 71360.00 yuan/ton, and 71360.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 160.00 yuan/ton, 160.00 yuan/ton, 60.00 yuan/ton, and 60.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 410989.00 hands (- 15052), and the open interest was 309402.00 hands (- 14054) [1]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 38625.00 tons (+234) [1]. Spot Market - **Lithium Minerals**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 842.00 US dollars/ton (-2.00), and the prices of various types of lithium mica were flat [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 72450.00 yuan/ton (-400), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 70200.00 yuan/ton (-400). The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic) decreased, and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was stable [1]. - **Other Products**: The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and other products showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of ternary precursor 523 (multi - crystal/consumer type) increased by 1000.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) decreased by 95.00 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased [1]. - **Demand**: The output of lithium iron phosphate increased, the output of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the output of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production in August was high, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. Inventory The social inventory decreased, smelters and others reduced inventory, and downstream inventory was tight [1]. News On September 12, the commissioning ceremony of Zijin Mining's 20,000 - ton - per - year lithium carbonate project in the Salar de Diablillos salt lake was held. The pre - project work such as the permit approval for the second - phase project is in progress, with a planned lithium carbonate production capacity of 40,000 tons/year. After the full operation of the two - phase projects, the annual production capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons [1]. Investment Strategy It is recommended to short on rallies [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. Specifically, the urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are optimistic considering the eased China - India relations. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog Urea Futures Price - UR01 in Shanxi closed at 1663 yuan/ton on September 12, down 8 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.48% - UR05 closed at 1718 yuan/ton on September 12, down 1 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.06% - UR09 closed at 1570 yuan/ton on September 12, down 25 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 1.57% [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - In Shandong, it was 1660 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Henan, it was 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, down 10 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.60% - In Hebei, it was 1670 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Northeast China, it was 1680 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Jiangsu, it was 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Basis and Spread - The spread between Shandong spot and UR was - 58 yuan/ton on September 12, up 1 yuan from September 11 - The 01 - 05 spread was - 55 yuan/ton on September 12, down 7 yuan from September 11 [1] Upstream Cost - The anthracite price in Henan was 1000 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The anthracite price in Shanxi was 880 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Downstream Price - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2950 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan was 2550 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The melamine price in Shandong was 5100 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The melamine price in Jiangsu was 5300 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1661 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1667 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 300,585 lots [1] Trading Strategy Focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices (View score: 0) [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The current methanol price is oscillating at a low level, mainly due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in inland areas, which suppress the upward space. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventories and the lack of restocking motivation among MTO enterprises. However, considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with inland areas is also relatively low, the room for further decline is limited. With the upcoming peak season for traditional downstream industries, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.34%); MA05 closed at 2385 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%); MA09 closed at 2230 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.77%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices: In太仓, it was 2277.50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Shandong, it remained unchanged at 2385 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2272.50 yuan/ton, down 12.50 yuan/ton (-0.55%); in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, there was no change [1]. - Basis: The basis of 太仓 spot - MA was -101.50 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. b) Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: The prices of 部尔多斯Q5500, 大同Q5500, and 榆林Q6000 remained unchanged at 495 yuan/ton, 552.50 yuan/ton, and 567.50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. c) Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 455.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at -382 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit of methanol: The profit of 西北MTO was -115.80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-20.88%); the profit of 华东MTO was -584.07 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-3.91%); the profit of acetic acid was 484.80 yuan/ton, up 31.40 yuan/ton (6.93%); the profit of MTBE was 257.52 yuan/ton, up 31.80 yuan/ton (14.09%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at -276.40 yuan/ton; the profit of 一曲歌 remained unchanged at 228 yuan/ton [1]. d) Trading Strategy Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic and international macro - optimistic expectations and partial refining tin capacity maintenance support tin prices. The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the decline in domestic tin ingot social inventory may cause the Shanghai tin price to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips, paying attention to specific support and pressure levels [3][4]. - For spreads and inventory, due to factors such as the weakening employment supply - demand in the US and the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin, as well as the spreads of LME tin contracts, are within a reasonable range, and investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities. The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased compared with last week [10][11][15]. - In terms of supply, the domestic tin ore supply is expected to be tight, the production of recycled tin in September may decrease month - on - month, the production capacity utilization rate of refined tin has declined, and the import volume of refined tin may decrease month - on - month [21][25][30]. - In terms of demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tin solder may increase month - on - month, the import volume of solder strips may decrease month - on - month while the export volume may increase, and the production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets may all decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries has slightly decreased [36][37][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin are negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [10][11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased compared with last week, the social inventory of tin ingots in China has increased, the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has increased, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [21]. - The second beneficiation plant of the Uis mine in Namibia has been commissioned, and tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are resuming production. Alphamin Resources' tin mine in Congo is also resuming production in stages. These factors may lead to an increase in domestic tin ore production and a decrease in imports in September [23]. - The production of recycled tin in China in September may decrease month - on - month [25]. - The production capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has decreased (remained flat). Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on smelting equipment, resulting in a decrease in the production of refined tin in China in September and an increase in inventory [29]. - The export volume of Indonesia in September may decrease, which may lead to an increase in the import volume and a decrease in the export volume of refined tin in China in September [32]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, which may lead to an increase in the production capacity utilization rate and a decrease in the inventory of tin solder in China in September [36]. - The import volume of solder strips in China in September may decrease month - on - month, while the export volume may increase [37]. - The production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets in China in September may all decrease month - on - month [42]. - The production capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China has slightly decreased compared with last week [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market has a potential supply increase due to the resumption of production in some silicon plants in Xinjiang and the stable increase in production in the southwest region. The demand side is mixed, with some demand increase from polysilicon plants'复产 and pressure on the organic silicon price. The industrial silicon price is expected to remain high in the short - term but may fall later [1]. - The polysilicon market has a slight increase in expected production, with significant trading volume and inventory decline. However, due to high downstream raw material inventory and pressure on the terminal, the price is under pressure to rise further [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Information - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) is 9,000 yuan/ton with 0.00% change; the futures主力合约收盘价 is 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The price of 421 (East China) is 9,500 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type dense material is 50.05 yuan/kg with no change, and the futures主力合约收盘价 is 53,610 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [1]. Information - On September 5, 2025 (US Eastern Time), US President Trump signed an executive order. Organic silicon products were newly included in the tariff list, and key metals and minerals such as gold, tungsten, uranium, and graphite were exempted [1]. - On September 11, 2025, Shandong Province announced the results of the 2025 new energy mechanism electricity price bidding. There were 1175 selected photovoltaic projects with a scale of 1.265GW, including 1.219GW of centralized photovoltaic and 46MW of distributed photovoltaic [1]. Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - The supply side of industrial silicon is increasing steadily, and the demand side is mixed. The price is expected to remain high in the short - term but may fall later. The trading strategy is to operate in the range, buy out - of - the - money put options, and consider the 2511 and 2512 reverse arbitrage [1]. Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - The polysilicon supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has some positive factors but also faces pressure from the terminal. The price is under pressure to rise further. The trading strategy is to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol price is currently in a low - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and focus on subsequent long - buying opportunities. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventories and insufficient restocking motivation of MTO enterprises, the low current spot price in East China and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries may help relieve the inventory pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, MA01 closed at 2387 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.83%); MA05 closed at 2390 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.79%); MA09 closed at 2213 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton (-2.30%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Among different regions, prices in Shaanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.47%), while prices in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged. Prices in other regions such as Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Inner Mongolia decreased to varying degrees [1] - **Price Difference**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 12.50 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Cost and Profit Situation - **Cost**: Coal spot prices in Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing also remained unchanged. The cost of coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged [1] - **Profit**: Methanol profits, including coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol, remained unchanged. However, the profits of Northwest MTO decreased by 82.80 yuan/ton (-636.92%), and the profits of East China MTO decreased by 34.50 yuan/ton (-6.54%). Among downstream products, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 2.75 yuan/ton (-0.60%), the profit of MTBE remained unchanged, and the profit of a certain product (possibly mis - written as "開發") increased by 10 yuan/ton (3.49%) [1] 3.3 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated weakly, opening at 2404 yuan/ton, closing at 2387 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 493,157 lots and an open interest of 775,400, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing positions [1] - **Foreign Information**: For non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - future, the reference negotiation range is +0.6 - 1%, and a few people are offering at +1%, but there is still a lack of transaction dynamics. For other Middle - East regions' methanol shipments arriving in the near - far future, the reference negotiation is at +0 - 0.5%, and recent transactions are at +0.2 - 0.5% [1] 3.4 Long - Short Logic - **Downward Pressure**: High port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland area suppress the upward space of methanol prices, and the short - term upward drive is limited [1] - **Upward Potential**: The current low spot price in East China and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries may help relieve the inventory pressure [1] 3.5 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, and the view score is 0 [1]

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 贵金属日评20250912: 美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-09-05 | 2025-09-11 | 2025-09-10 | 收盘价 | 830. 78 | 15. 18 | 833. 42 | -2. 64 | 815. 60 | | | | | 成交重 | 165360.00 | 183319.00 | -132, 497. 00 | 297857.00 | -17, 959. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 114423.00 | 119424.00 | 132985.00 | -18.562.00 | -5.001.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 50151.00 | 43335.00 | 6. 8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline on Friday was mainly due to fundamental negatives, such as OPEC+ accelerating production increases and the full inventory build - up of US oil products by EIA, which dampened market bullish sentiment. However, the possibility of short - term trading on this negative is low because the market has some expectations for OPEC+ production increases and the overall inventory pressure of US crude oil and refined products is not large [3][72]. - The main driver to watch next week is the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The market currently expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut. If it is just a matter of the expected cut, it may not be bullish for the market. Attention should be paid to whether there will be an unexpectedly large rate cut [3][72]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Price Movement**: This week, oil prices first rose and then fell. The Israeli attack on Qatar drove up the geopolitical premium, but it did not further develop. OPEC and IEA monthly reports re - emphasized the oversupply pressure, causing oil prices to give back their gains. As of September 11, the active contract of WTI crude oil futures closed at $62.24 per barrel, Brent crude oil at $66.31 per barrel, and the active contract of SC crude oil futures at 489.2 yuan per barrel [8]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spread was oscillating weakly [9]. - **WTI Fund Net Long Positions**: As of the week ending September 2, WTI fund net long positions were 27,323 lots, a week - on - week increase of 2,702 lots. Brent fund net long positions were 240,729 lots, a week - on - week increase of 38,583 lots. In the refined products market, gasoline net long positions increased by 7,853 lots, diesel by 9,927 lots, and heating oil by 6,329 lots [13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: At the September 7 meeting, OPEC+ announced that eight countries would adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025 from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023. The OPEC latest monthly report showed that in August, OPEC+ crude oil production increased by 509,000 barrels per day compared to July, with OPEC production increasing by 478,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia with an increase of 259,000 barrels per day. IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day [18]. - **US**: US crude oil production was oscillating at a high level. As of the week ending September 5, 2025, the weekly US crude oil production was 1,349.5 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 72,000 barrels per day, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 1,343.5 million barrels per day. However, with limited changes in the number of rigs, the production increase capacity was also limited, and producers' willingness to expand the mining scale was low at low oil prices [29]. - **Risk**: In the Russia - Ukraine situation, although there were signs of a willingness to negotiate peace before, there has been no progress or news regarding leader meetings or the previously mentioned security agreements. The conflict is still far from ending, and follow - up developments should be monitored [30]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - **US**: US refined product demand declined in the off - season. As of the week ending September 5, gasoline demand was 850,800 barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 609,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 30,000 barrels per day; distillate demand was 337,700 barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 391,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 181,000 barrels per day; jet fuel demand was 175,500 barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 51,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 258,000 barrels per day. The total US petroleum product demand was 1,978,100 barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 871,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 398,000 barrels per day [32]. - **Cracking Spread**: Gasoline and diesel cracking spreads were at neutral levels, and the valuation of refined product prices relative to crude oil prices was neutral [38]. - **Refinery Data**: Downstream refinery operations increased slightly and will enter the traditional autumn maintenance period. As of the week ending September 5, the US refinery capacity utilization rate was 94.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points; crude oil processing volume was 1,681,800 barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 51,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 59,000 barrels per day [41]. - **China**: The bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity market has been greatly boosted recently, but the sentiment in the oil market is relatively flat. It mainly depends on whether the anti - involution policy can drive the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and then boost crude oil demand. In July, crude oil processing volume continued to grow to 63.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 815,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.998 million tons, mainly due to the high - level operation of major refineries. The operation of local refineries has improved but is still at a low level, affected by the adjustment of refined product tax policies and the transformation of domestic energy demand [45]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - **US**: Both US crude oil and refined products had inventory builds. As of the week ending September 5, US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 424.646 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.939 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 5.503 million barrels. The SPR inventory was 405.224 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 514,000 barrels. In the Cushing area, the weekly crude oil inventory was 23.86 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 360,000 barrels. In the refined products market, due to the off - season, all refined product inventories increased. Gasoline inventory was 219.997 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.458 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 1.555 million barrels; distillate inventory was 120.638 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 4.715 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 4.385 million barrels; jet fuel inventory was 43.267 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 474,000 barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 4.723 million barrels [55][57][60]. - **OECD**: With the implementation of OPEC+ production increases, the global crude oil supply - demand surplus pressure increased, and OECD inventories continued to build up. In August 2025, the global monthly crude oil supply was 10,669,000 barrels per day, demand was 10,457,000 barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 212,000 barrels per day (the previous value was 118,000 barrels per day). The OECD inventory at the end of August was 2.839 billion barrels, a month - on - month increase of 350 million barrels [67].