贵金属周报-黄金和白银 美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格 2025年9月15日 研究所 王文虎 从业资格证号：F03087656 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472 联系方式：021-51801878 黄金和白银 1、美国8月就业数据表现偏弱，消费端通胀核心CPI年率持平预期和前值，美联储越来越多官员支持降 息，特朗普持续施压或更换美联储官员，使市场预期美联储9/10/12月或连续每次降息25个基点。 2、美国《大漂亮法案》债务上限提高10万亿美元以扩大减税规模和国防支出，德国放宽债务刹车推出 包括4000亿欧元国防特别基金和5000亿欧元公共基础设施投资基金，日本2026年财政预算申请总额达到创纪 录的122.4万亿日元以应对防务支出扩大和债务融资成本上升，全球财政主动扩张时代到来。 3、2025年8月7日美国总统特朗普签署行政命令准许401(k)退休储蓄计划投资黄金和数字货币等另类资 产。规模约为2万亿欧元且占欧盟养老金总额50%以上的荷兰养老金体系将于2026年1月1日前切换至新系统， 要求年轻成员资金更多投向股票等风险资产，可能引发3000亿欧洲债券持仓变动。多国养老基金投资模式改 革引发向黄金和股票 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of primary and secondary lead has tightened, and the lead price has rebounded to over 17,000 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply supplement of imported crude lead and the risk of the lead price rising and then falling [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.30% to 16,775 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price increased by 0.83% to 17,040 yuan/ton; London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose by 1.64% to 2,017.5 US dollars/ton [10] - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at -90 US dollars/dry ton. The smelter's profit recovered to 18.9 yuan/ton as of September 5 [27] 2. Maintenance and Production Cuts, Phased Tightening of Primary Lead Supply - The primary lead operating rate increased slightly to 66.68%. Some smelters in Henan and Inner Mongolia had maintenance and production cuts, while the production in other regions remained stable [28][33] 3. Multiple Smelters Shut Down, Secondary Lead Operating Rate Dropped to a Low Level - As of September 12, the average price of waste batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The losses of large and small secondary lead enterprises improved to -110 yuan/ton and -322 yuan/ton respectively [41][47] - As of September 11, secondary lead raw material inventory was 129,450 tons, and finished product inventory was 10,300 tons. The operating rate decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 22.3%, and the weekly production decreased to 32,100 tons [50][53] 4. Buy on Dips, Pay Attention to Downstream Pre-holiday Stockpiling - The lead battery operating rate decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 72.14%. The orders for energy storage batteries were stable, those for electric bicycle batteries increased steadily, while those for automobile batteries and the battery replacement market were relatively weak [60] 5. Import and Export Profit Window Closed - As of September 5, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,700 yuan/ton. As of September 12, the import profit was -306.41 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [72] 6. Partial Factory Warehouses Transferred to Social Warehouses - As of September 11, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 67,000 tons, an increase; the factory warehouse of primary lead's main deliverable brands was 9,550 tons, a decrease [84] - As of September 12, SHFE refined lead inventory was 66,600 tons, a slight decrease; as of September 11, LME inventory was 229,600 tons, a decrease [87]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The supply of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, downstream actively stocks up, inventory flows smoothly from top to bottom, and the inventory pressure of smelters is not significant. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the downstream stockpiling situation [5][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate first rose and then fell, with a weekly decline of 4.02%. The trading volume reached 2.96 million lots (-160,000), and the open interest reached 309,400 lots (-54,600) [7]. - The basis premium is 1,290 yuan/ton [8]. 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Ore - In August, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,670 tons of LCE, a month-on-month increase of 2.6%; lithium mica production was 8,980 tons of LCE, a month-on-month decrease of 44.2% [12]. - In July, the import volume of lithium concentrate rebounded to 576,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34.7% and a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [16]. - In July, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 88,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [20]. - Lithium Battery Recycling - In September, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries is 27,623 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 32.9% [23]. - Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,963 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8%. - In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 13,845 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 21.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.7%. - In August, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 12,982 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [28][30]. - Lithium Hydroxide - In September, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 37%, and the production was 24,470 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12% and a year-on-year decrease of 21%. - In July, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 1,248 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 80.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 86.3% [37]. 1.3 Downstream Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 77,513 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.3%. - In August, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 61%, and the production was 2,647,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 59% [40]. - Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 16,491 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%. - In July, the import volume increased and the export volume decreased [45]. - Ternary Precursors - In September, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 43%, and the production was 81,490 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. - In July, the export volume increased [50]. - Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In September, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,887 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year decrease of 5%. - In September, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 67%, and the production was 12,530 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 42% [51]. - Electrolyte - In September, the production of electrolyte was 191,480 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 35.0%. - In July, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [59]. 1.4 Terminal Demand - Power Batteries - In August, the production of power batteries was 139.6 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 37.8%. - In August, the loading volume of power batteries was 62.5 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 11.8% and a year-on-year increase of 32.4% [62]. - New Energy Vehicles - In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a month-on-month increase of 11.9% and a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. - In August, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.395 million, a month-on-month increase of 10.5% and a year-on-year increase of 26.8% [65]. - Energy Storage - In September, the production of energy storage batteries was 50.67 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of 42.3%. - In July, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.83 GW, a month-on-month increase of 27.6% and a year-on-year increase of 44.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.7 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 37.9% and a year-on-year increase of 60.1% [70]. - Consumer Electronics - In August, the production of smartphones in China was 100.4 million, a month-on-month increase of 6.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. - In August, the production of microcomputers in China was 27.69 million, a month-on-month increase of 8.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.3% [73]. 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore has declined. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate has dropped by $29/ton, and the price of lithium mica has dropped by 90 yuan/ton [78]. 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 1,580 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory decreased by 3,262 tons, the downstream's inventory increased by 3,072 tons, and other inventories decreased by 1,390 tons [83]. - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 686 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 115 tons [84]. 1.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: Sell short at high prices or buy put options after the volatility decreases. - Operating range: 65,000 - 77,000. - Overall, the supply remains at a high level, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, downstream actively stocks up, inventory flows smoothly from top to bottom, and the inventory pressure of smelters is not significant. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the downstream stockpiling situation [88].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01 in Shanxi: 1663 yuan/ton on September 12, down 8 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.48% [1]. - UR05: 1718 yuan/ton on September 12, down 1 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.06% [1]. - UR09: 1570 yuan/ton on September 12, down 25 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 1.57% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1660 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Henan: 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, down 10 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.60% [1]. - Hebei: 1670 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Northeast: 1680 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Jiangsu: 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 58 yuan/ton on September 12, up 1 yuan from September 11 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: - 55 yuan/ton on September 12, down 7 yuan from September 11 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. - Melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1661 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1667 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 300585 lots [1]. Trading Strategy Focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250915: Limited Rebound Space [1] - Core Viewpoint: The Fed's increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts drives the rebound of non - ferrous metals, but nickel is restricted by weak fundamentals and inventory reduction pressure, with a limited rebound in nickel prices; stainless steel has a loose fundamental situation but cost - side support, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1] Group 2: Nickel Market Data Futures Market - On September 12, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 121,800 yuan/ton, 121,980 yuan/ton, 122,160 yuan/ton, and 122,300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,750 yuan, 1,360 yuan, 1,370 yuan, and 1,350 yuan compared to the previous day [2] - The trading volume of the active Shanghai nickel futures contract was 145,101 lots (+57,563), and the open interest was 72,640 lots (-9,051) [2] Spot Market - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan compared to the previous day; the average price of nickel beans was 124,200 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,350 yuan [2] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures was 22,111 tons; the total inventory of SMM Chinese port nickel ore was 874 (in 10,000 wet tons), a decrease compared to the previous day; the total SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory was 3,700 tons, a decrease compared to the previous day; the SMM pure nickel social inventory was 39,470 tons, an increase compared to the previous day [2] International Market - On September 12, 2025, the official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,275 US dollars/ton, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,150 US dollars/ton, and the on - site closing price was 15,150 US dollars/ton; the trading volume was 5,064 lots [2] Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Data Futures Market - On September 12, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 12,800 yuan/ton, 12,860 yuan/ton, 12,950 yuan/ton, and 12,985 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 0 yuan, 65 yuan, 80 yuan, and 70 yuan compared to the previous day [2] - The trading volume of the active Shanghai stainless - steel futures contract was 153,413 lots, and the open interest was 126,286 lots (-2,058) [2] Spot Market - The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) was 13,700 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous day; the average price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) was 12,725 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [2] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 9,6949 tons (-605); the 300 - series social inventory last week was 96,300 tons (-15,400) [2] Group 4: Industry News - On September 12, an Indonesian law - enforcement team seized a 148 - hectare nickel - mining area in Weda Bay and a 172.8 - hectare mining area of PT Tonia Mitra Sejahtera in Southeast Sulawesi Province due to the lack of proper forestry licenses [2] Group 5: Market Logic and Strategies Nickel - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel - ore arrival volume decreased, and port inventory increased; nickel - iron plant loss margins narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September, and nickel - iron destocking; domestic electrolytic - nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded [2] - **Demand**: Ternary - material production decreased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [2] Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production increased in September [2] - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [2] - **Cost**: High - nickel pig - iron prices remained flat, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [2] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The weak performance of the US employment data in August, the core CPI annual rate of consumer - end inflation meeting expectations and the previous value, more Fed officials supporting interest rate cuts, and Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials have led the market to expect that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Geopolitical risks such as the Russia - related conflicts are difficult to resolve, and central banks of many countries around the world are continuously buying gold, which may make precious metal prices prone to rise and difficult to fall [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai gold futures active contract: Closing price on 2025 - 09 - 12 was 834.22 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 170,217.00 and an open interest of 109,267.00. The inventory was 52,950.00 (in ten - gram units) [1] - Spot Shanghai gold T + D: Closing price was 830.34 yuan/gram, trading volume was 36,270.00, and open interest was 206,336.00 [1] - COMEX gold futures active contract: Closing price was 3,680.70 dollars/ounce, trading volume was 147,566.00, and open interest was 385,713.00. The inventory was 38,914,490.82 (in troy ounces) [1] - London gold spot: Closing price was 3,546.30 dollars/ounce [1] - SPDR gold ETF holding: 974.80 tons, with a change of - 3.15 tons [1] - iShare gold ETF holding: 457.86 tons [1] - **Silver**: - Shanghai silver futures active contract: Closing price on 2025 - 09 - 12 was 10,035.00 yuan/ten - gram, trading volume was 301,985.00, and open interest was 219,328.00. The inventory was 1,240,187.00 (in ten - gram units) [1] - Spot Shanghai silver T + D: Closing price was 9,772.00 yuan/ten - gram, trading volume was 304,080.00, and open interest was - 78,720.00 [1] - COMEX silver futures active contract: Closing price was 41.32 dollars/ounce, trading volume was 66,072.00, and open interest was 133,690.00. The inventory was 527,423,229.52 (in troy ounces) [1] - London silver spot: Closing price was 42.26 dollars/ounce [1] - E - iShare silver ETF holding: 15,230.57 tons [1] - Canada PSLV silver ETF holding: 6,129.64 tons [1] 2. Price Ratios and Spreads - **Gold**: - Spread between near - month and far - month contracts: For Shanghai gold, it was 1.72; for COMEX gold, it was 2.50 [1] - Basis (spot - futures): For Shanghai gold, it was - 3.88; for COMEX gold, it was 14.25 [1] - **Silver**: - Spread between near - month and far - month contracts: For Shanghai silver, it was - 75.00; for COMEX silver, it was - 0.02 [1] - Basis (spot - futures): For Shanghai silver, it was - 15.00; for COMEX silver, it was - 0.35 [1] 3. Other Market Data - **Commodities**: - INE crude oil: Closing price was 475.30 yuan/barrel [1] - ICE Brent crude oil: Closing price was 66.31 dollars/barrel [1] - NYMEX crude oil: Closing price was 62.24 dollars/barrel [1] - Shanghai copper futures: Closing price was 81,060.00 yuan/ton [1] - LME copper spot: Closing price was 10,067.50 dollars/ton [1] - Shanghai rebar: Closing price was 3,127.00 yuan/ton [1] - Dalian iron ore: Closing price was 799.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: - SHIBOR: 1.37% and 1.66% [1] - US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield: 4.0100% [1] - US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield: 1.7900% [1] - 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation: 2.3600% [1] - **Exchange Rates**: - US dollar index: 97.5299 [1] - US dollar - RMB central parity rate: 7.1019 [1] - Euro - RMB central parity rate: 8.3326 [1] - **Stock Indices**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3,875.3094 [1] - S&P 500: 6,584.2900 [1] - UK FTSE 100: 9,283.2900 [1] - France CAC40: 7,825.2400 [1] - Germany DAX: 23,770.3300 [1] - Nikkei 225: 44,768.1200 [1] - South Korea Composite Index: 3,344.2000 [1] 4. Important Information - The US government is facing a "shutdown" crisis again because the Democrats demand to add the subsidy extension of the Affordable Care Act to the government appropriation bill. If the subsidy expires, the medical insurance premiums of about 22.4 million Americans will rise significantly, causing political backlash [1] - It is the "central bank super - week", and major central banks such as the Fed, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions [1] 5. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly set up long positions when the price drops. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,650 - 3,750 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 850 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 38 - 39 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 41 - 43 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,000 - 9,500 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ten - gram [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The lead price is expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels in the short term, but the limited improvement in demand may suppress the upside space of the lead price. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [1]. - The Shanghai zinc is expected to be sorted strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to the suppression of fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On September 15, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,040 yuan/ton, up 0.83% [1]. - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 63,429 lots, up 51.85%; the open interest was 52,188 lots, up 5.21% [1]. - The LME inventory was 229,575 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 59,485 tons, down 0.42% [1]. Industry News - From September 5th to September 11th, the weekly operating rate of primary lead enterprises was 66.68%, a week-on-week increase of 0.07 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 22.3%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.5 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises was 72.14%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 percentage points [1]. - On September 11th, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 42.99 US dollars/ton, and the open interest was 158,239 lots, an increase of 784 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The import of lead concentrates has no incremental expectation, and the processing fee is likely to rise but difficult to fall, but it has not had a substantial impact on the refinery's operation. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has fluctuated slightly [1]. - In the secondary lead sector, the lead price has been consolidating. Due to raw materials and losses, the refineries' enthusiasm for operation has weakened, the scope of production cuts and suspensions has further expanded, and the current operation rate is less than 30%. Some enterprises purchase from peers to fulfill long - term orders, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market has not improved significantly, the peak - season effect has not been reflected, dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales. After the lead price broke through the 17,000 - yuan mark last Friday, downstream buyers were afraid of rising prices, and the purchasing sentiment improved slightly [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - On September 15, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,160 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,305 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [1]. - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 103,603 lots, up 11.02%; the open interest was 97,697 lots, down 2.73% [1]. - The LME inventory was 50,525 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 45,905 tons, up 2.18% [1]. Industry News - From September 5th to September 11th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 56.06%, a week-on-week increase of 5.98 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 53.99%, a week-on-week increase of 2.99 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 57.21%, a week-on-week increase of 2.71 percentage points [1]. - As of September 12th, the total inventory of SMM zinc concentrates at major ports in China was 44.55 million tons, an increase of 1.66 million tons from the previous week, and the inventory at Lianyungang Port increased significantly [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Last week, the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates was flat week-on-week at 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased week-on-week to 98.75 US dollars/dry ton. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic ores have a strong advantage, and refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. The domestic TC in September may have limited upside [1]. - On the supply side, refineries' profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output increase trend is obvious [1]. - On the demand side, as the impact of the military parade and the SCO Summit fades, the operation of downstream enterprises has rebounded significantly, and demand has improved. In addition, as the Shanghai - London price ratio continues to deteriorate, the zinc ingot export window may open [1].

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The game in the steel market intensifies, and the market will continue to fluctuate. After the military parade, the supply pressure quickly rebounds due to the recovery of production. The current supply - demand gap remains at a relatively high level, lacking the impetus for a rebound. After the contraction of ton - steel profit, the driving force for further decline slows down, and the raw material varieties are significantly differentiated. In the short term, it is still mainly about squeezing profits, and the difficulty of unilateral operation increases. Attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations, and cautious operation is recommended [6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price - As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3400 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] Production - As of September 11, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 3.41 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 6.75 tons, and the output of hot - rolled coil increased by 10.9 tons. The 247 - steel - enterprise blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.2% on September 12, up 5.12% from September 5, and the daily average molten iron output was 240.6 tons, up 5.12% [7][12][42] Inventory - As of September 11, the factory inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.5 tons, and the social inventory increased by 17.41 tons. The rebar factory inventory was 166.63 tons (-4.71), the social inventory was 487.23 tons (+18.57), and the total inventory was 653.86 tons (+13.86). The hot - rolled coil factory inventory increased by 0.9 tons, the social inventory decreased by 1.92 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1.02 tons [7][12][72] Demand - The apparent demand for five major steel products was 843.33 tons, up 15.5 tons week - on - week. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 326.16 tons, up 20.8 tons week - on - week [7][75] Scrap Steel - As of September 11, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 35.1%, up 1 percentage point. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 54.7 tons, up 0.62 tons. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 48.5 tons, down 2.04 tons (a 4% decrease), and the scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 428.5 tons, down 14.07 tons (a 3.2% decrease) [8] 2. Macroeconomic Data Steel Output - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons (a 1.7% decrease) compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons (a 2.3% decrease) compared with 2023. From January to July 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude steel output was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the same period in 2024 [18] Financial Data - In July 2025, the newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises (institutions) decreased by 39 billion yuan year - on - year, and the newly - added scale turned negative for the first time since September 2016 [20] PMI - The PMI in August 2025 was 49.4% [23] Investment Data - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 17% [26] Real Estate Data - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%, the newly - started floor area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%, and the completed floor area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [29] 3. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar remained at a high level this week [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand with inventory accumulation. However, as downstream开工 rates rise and there is an expectation of regular inventory stocking before the National Day holiday, the demand side is expected to improve, and the speed of inventory accumulation will slow down. Additionally, LME zinc remains in a back structure, the Shanghai-London ratio continues to deteriorate, and the zinc ingot export window is expected to open. In the short term, the support below the zinc price is solid, and one can lightly allocate long positions. The operating range is expected to be between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes and overseas risks [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.96% to 22,160 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.68% to 22,305 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) increased by 3.45% to 2,956 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount, trading volume - to - open - interest ratio, Shanghai - London ratio, and various spot and futures spreads [12][14]. 2. Raw Material Situation - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: As of September 12, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 445,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons [21]. - **Zinc Concentrate Profit**: As of September 11, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,838 yuan/metal ton. In July, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 501,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.0354 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.20% [28]. - **Processing Fees**: The domestic TC decreased slightly, while the imported TC continued to increase. The CZSPT small group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [3][32]. 3. Refining Production - **Production Profit**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of September 11, the production profit was - 228 yuan/ton. In July, the domestic refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,700 tons, and it is expected to increase to about 620,000 - 630,000 tons in August [38]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit window was closed. As of September 12, the import profit of refined zinc was - 2,804.68 yuan/ton. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 209,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,600 tons [41]. 4. Downstream Consumption - **Galvanizing**: The galvanizing enterprise开工 rate increased by 5.98 percentage points to 56.06%. The raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory decreased [47][50]. - **Die - Casting Zinc Alloy**: The price of zinc alloy increased slightly. The开工 rate increased by 2.99 percentage points to 53.99%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased [59][62][65]. - **Zinc Oxide**: The price of zinc oxide increased by 0.47% to 21,300 yuan/ton. The开工 rate increased by 2.71 percentage points to 57.21%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory fluctuated slightly [69][72][75]. 5. Inventory Situation - **Shanghai Zinc Social Inventory**: As of September 11, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 143,300 tons, showing an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [82]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of September 12, the SHFE inventory was 94,600 tons, showing an increase. As of September 11, the LME inventory was 50,500 tons, showing a continuous decline [85]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance table from July 2024 to July 2025, showing the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the recovery of downstream demand support aluminum prices. The prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy are affected by different supply - demand and cost factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each [2]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Alumina - **Price Trends**: The national average price of alumina on September 12, 2025, was 3077.47 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to previous days. The closing price of alumina futures was 2914 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The volume, open interest, and inventory also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Factors**: Guinea's rainy season and bauxite production fluctuations led to rising prices of domestic and imported bauxite. China's alumina production capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory of alumina in Chinese alumina and electrolytic aluminum plants and the daily inventory of alumina in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. Although the operating capacity of alumina is high and the supply - demand is expected to be loose, the rising cost of bauxite limits the downward space of alumina prices [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Gradually layout long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 2800 - 2900 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Price Trends**: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum on September 12, 2025, was 21020 yuan/ton, showing an increase. The closing price of electrolytic aluminum futures was 21120 yuan/ton, with an increase of 205 yuan/ton. There were also changes in volume, open interest, and inventory [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Factors**: On the supply side, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is high due to good production profits, but the expected new replacement capacity is limited. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the daily inventory of LME electrolytic aluminum, and the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions of China decreased. On the demand side, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season led to an increase in the operating capacity of most downstream aluminum processing industries [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly layout long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 20400 - 20700 and the resistance level around 21000 - 21500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2500 - 2600 and the resistance level around 2700 - 2800 for LME aluminum [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price Trends**: The average price of SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) on September 12, 2025, was 22100 yuan/ton, showing an increase. The closing price of the active contract of cast aluminum alloy futures was 20645 yuan/ton, with an increase of 170 yuan/ton. There were also changes in volume and open interest [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Factors**: The daily full - cost production cost of China's recycled aluminum alloy IDC12 is 20380 yuan/ton, and the profit is positive, resulting in an increase in the production capacity utilization rate of recycled aluminum alloy. The social inventory of aluminum alloy, the daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Ningbo, Wuxi, and Foshan, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased. The domestic scrap aluminum supply - demand is expected to be tight, the production cost of recycled aluminum alloy is rising, but the profit is decreasing [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on aluminum alloy at low prices in the short - term or try to go short on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy at high prices. Pay attention to the support level around 20000 - 20200 and the resistance level around 20500 - 21000 [2]. Overseas Aluminum Market - **Price Trends**: The closing price of LME 3 - month aluminum futures on September 12, 2025, was 10067.5 US dollars/ton, showing an increase. The 0 - 3 - month contract spread of LME aluminum futures was - 61.54, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32 [2]. - **Ratio**: The ratio of Shanghai - London aluminum prices was 7.8193 [2]