Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report has a weak outlook on the fundamentals of methanol. In terms of valuation, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have declined slightly, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair, making methanol relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually increasing. With high raw material inventories of downstream MTO enterprises and expected port inventory accumulation, the methanol rebound space is expected to be limited [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2475 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.88%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2439 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.61%); MA09 closed at 2383 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices: Prices in most regions decreased on 2025/8/8 compared to the previous day, except in Shaanxi where it increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (0.35%). The prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1]. - Price difference: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 95 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, up 19.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. b) Raw Material Prices - Coal spot prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 increased by 2.5 yuan/ton (0.51%) to 495 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, while the prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. c) Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit was 445.20 yuan/ton on 2025/8/8, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.40%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 500 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit was 34.20 yuan/ton, down 28.80 yuan/ton (-45.71%); East China MTO profit was - 654.57 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-2.03%). Among other downstream products, acetic acid profit decreased by 11.08 yuan/ton (-5.13%), MTBE profit increased by 10 yuan/ton (4.82%), and the profits of formaldehyde and other products remained unchanged [1]. d) Important Information - Domestic information: The main methanol contract MA2509 decreased slightly, opening at 2391 yuan/ton, closing at 2383 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 298,400 lots and an open interest of 406,384. All contracts except 2508 had trading volume [1]. - Foreign information: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in other regions of the Middle East resumed normal operation in the past two days, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1]. e) Summary The report maintains a weak expectation for methanol fundamentals. Although the anti - involution policy may cause fluctuations in coking coal and affect the methanol market, the actual impact on methanol production is limited. The supply of inland coal - based methanol is increasing, and with high downstream inventories and expected port inventory accumulation, the upward space for methanol prices is expected to be limited [1].

| 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关注周二美国消费端通胀CPI | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-07 | 收盘价 | 2. 78 | 787.80 | 781. 42 | 6. 38 | 785.02 | | | | | 成交重 | 251828.00 | 271828.00 | 64.747.00 | -20,000.00 | 187081.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 220321.00 | 217630.00 | 217696.00 | 2.691.00 | 2, 625. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 0. 00 | 156.00 | 36045.00 | 36045.00 | 35889.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily review of copper on August 11, 2025, focusing on the copper market, including price, inventory, and industry trends [1] Group 2: Market Data Shanghai Copper Futures - On August 8, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,490, up 30 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,906 lots, up 196; the open interest was 156,892 lots, down 709; the inventory was 21,272 tons, up 1,127 [2] - The basis of Shanghai copper was 40, unchanged from the previous day; the spot premium or discount in Guangzhou was -40, up 5; in North China was -120, unchanged; in East China was -5, up 10 [2] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was -30, down 20; between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 20, up 30; between the second - continuous and the first - continuous contract was 20, down 10 [2] London Copper - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 8, 2025, was 9,768, up 97.5 from the previous day [2] - The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, down 155,850 from the previous day [2] - The spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was -69.55, down 3.92; the 3 - 15 months contract was -141.49, down 1.49 [2] COMEX Copper - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 8, 2025, was 4.485, up 0.07 from the previous day [2] - The total inventory was 264,140, up 1,036 from the previous day [2] Group 3: Industry News - Chile's Codelco received approval from the labor department to resume operations in the unaffected areas of its El Teniente copper mine [2] - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China increased compared to last week, leading to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) [2] - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable increased, while the raw material and finished - product inventories decreased [2] - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire decreased and increased respectively, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased [2] - The capacity utilization rate and production of China's copper strip increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased [2] - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tubes increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days increased and decreased respectively [2] - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rods increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased [2] - Due to the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper products enterprises in August may decline [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Due to the weakening US job market, rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, the weekly operation capacity of the domestic copper processing industry, and the weekly decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, the price of Shanghai copper may rebound [2] - Investors are advised to lightly test long positions on the main contract on dips, with support and resistance levels at 77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and 4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On August 8th, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards. The profit has been restored, and the production of lithium carbonate has rebounded. However, disturbances at the mining end in Jiangxi have intensified. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to focus on the progress at the Jiangxi mining end and adopt short - term operations. (View score: +1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures and Spot Price Information - On August 8th, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 75,300 yuan/ton, 76,640 yuan/ton, 76,960 yuan/ton, and 76,960 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 5,300 yuan/ton, 4,720 yuan/ton, 4,660 yuan/ton, and 4,660 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 895,609 hands (+128,940), and the open interest was 320,706 hands (+30,874) [3]. - The registered warehouse receipts were 18,829 tons (+2,386), and the social inventory decreased. The smelters and others reduced inventory, while the downstream increased inventory [3]. - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton (+800), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan/ton (+800) [3]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.05 US dollars/kg (unchanged), and the average prices of domestic battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder lithium hydroxide increased by 500 yuan/ton [3]. - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 777 US dollars/ton (+20), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phosphate - lithium - aluminum stone also increased [3]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Information - On the supply side, the production of lithium carbonate increased last week. On the demand side, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In August, the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, and the production plan of lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3]. 3.3 Market News - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports starting interest rate cuts in September and cutting interest rates three times this year. JPMorgan Chase has changed its expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year from once to three times [3]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in July 2025, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month; the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed for the first time since March [3]. - According to the Futures Daily, the mining end under CATL has determined to stop production, and relevant personnel said there is no short - term plan for resumption [3].

| 2025-08-07 | 近两周走势 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-01 | 较昨日变化 | 期货近月合约 | 120950.00 | 121650.00 | 119470.00 | -700.00 | 收盘价 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 121180.00 | 121850.00 | 119770.00 | -670.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 121340.00 | -610.00 | 11 | 121950.00 | 119900.00 | 收盘价 | | | | | | 7 7 | 期货连三合约 | 121520.00 | 122110.00 | -590.00 | 收盘价 | 120160.00 | 121180.00 | 121850.00 | 119770.00 | -670.00 | 收盘价 | | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The impact of the Indian tender on market sentiment is gradually subsiding. Looking at domestic supply and demand, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level. Although the increase in enterprise inventory accumulation is not significant due to the increase in port collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 780,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On August 8th, compared with August 7th, UR01, UR05, and UR09 futures prices decreased by -0.34%, -0.50%, and -0.52% respectively. Among domestic spot prices, the price in Henan decreased by -0.56%, while the price in Hebei (small - granular) increased by 0.57%. Prices in Shanxi, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 11 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 3 yuan/ton [1] 3. Upstream Costs and Downstream Prices - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 0.45%, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 4. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1738 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1748 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1727 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1728 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1739 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 108,076 lots [1]

| 位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦银34-36附近支撑位及37-40附近压力位，沪银8500-8700附近支撑位及9100-9500附近压力位。（观点评 | | --- | | 分:0) | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的准 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已才求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资渡议。我 | | 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机物和个人不得以任何形式剧版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和VIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关 ...

| | 变量名称 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-31 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78490 | 78460 | 78040 | 30.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 42906 | 42710 | 109011 | 196.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 156892 | 157601 | 176193 | -709.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 21272 | 20145 | 19622 | 1,127.00 | | | | SMW 1#申熊铜十12位 | 78530 | 78500 | 78565 | 30. 00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 沪铜基差 | 40 | 40 | 225 | 0. 00 | | | | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | -40 | -45 | -20 | 5.00 - | | | (现货与期货) | 华北电解铜现货开贴水 | -120 | -120 | -110 | 0.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but due to the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, and the continuous increase in the operating capacity of domestic refined tin, the upside potential of Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support levels around 255,000 - 260,000 and the resistance levels around 274,000 - 278,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin are within a reasonable range, mainly due to the increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of the year, but also the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, and the rising weekly operating capacity of domestic refined tin. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6]. - The negative spread of LME tin (0 - 3) and positive spread of (3 - 15) are within a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai-London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five years, mainly due to the Trump administration's re-imposition of tariffs on many countries, but also the increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of the year and the decrease in LME refined tin inventory compared to last week. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities for the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - The first batch of 40 - 50 mines in Wa State, Myanmar will resume production after paying fees on July 11 (the initial increase will not exceed 10,000 metal tons and there is a 2 - 3 month transmission period, with a total of 108 mines), and Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu, Congo-Kinshasa on April 9, which may lead to a month-on-month increase in the production (import) volume of domestic tin ore in August [21]. - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [17]. - The production volume of Chinese recycled tin in August may increase month-on-month [22]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Jiangxi and Yunnan has increased (remained flat) compared to last week, and the production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in August has increased (increased) month-on-month [28]. - Due to the impact of a corruption investigation on the approval of mining licenses by the Indonesian Ministry of Finance and the possible reduction of medium - to long - term export quotas, and the plan of Indonesian state - owned tin mining company PT Timah to increase tin production and sales in 2025, the export volume in August may increase month-on-month. The continued loss in imports and exports may lead to a month-on-month decrease in the import (export) volume of Chinese refined tin in August [32]. Demand Side - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese tin solder in August may decrease month-on-month, and the daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strip has decreased month-on-month, which may lead to a decrease (increase) in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in August [33][35]. - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strip in August may decrease (increase) month-on-month [37]. - The production (import, export) volume of Chinese tinplate in August may increase (decrease, increase) month-on-month [43]. Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese refined tin has decreased compared to last week [11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased compared to last week; the social inventory of Chinese tin ingots has decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week; the total inventory of domestic and foreign refined tin has decreased compared to last week [13]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spread of LME tin (0 - 3) is negative and the spread of (3 - 15) is positive, both within a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai-London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five years [8][10].

| 铅锌日评20250811：区间整理 | 指标 | 2025/8/11 | 近期趋势 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | 16,725.00 | -0.15% | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 沪铅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 16,845.00 | -0.18% | | 元/吨 | -120.00 | 5.00 | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | -35.00 | - | 升贴水-上海 | | | 美元/吨 | -31.29 | 2.23 | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -73.60 | -9.90 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 价差 | | 元/吨 | -55.00 | -5.00 | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -5.00 | 20.00 | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 铅 | | 元/吨 | -25.00 | 5.00 | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | 手 | 31,008.00 | -4.39% | 期货活跃合约成交量 | | | 成交持 ...