Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The silicon price has declined and adjusted due to the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure on the disk, but the bullish sentiment keeps fluctuating. It is expected that the silicon price will remain at a high level in the short term, and operations need to be cautious. Continuous attention should be paid to the resumption of production of silicon enterprises [1] - Since the end of June, driven by the expectation of supply - side reform and the increase in spot prices, the polysilicon market has continued to rise, and the price has repeatedly reached new highs since its listing. Recently, although the sentiment has weakened, it still fluctuates, and the price remains at a high level with large market fluctuations. Operations need to be cautious. Continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of macro - sentiment and the registration of warehouse receipts [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.64% to 8,710 yuan/ton [1] - The average prices of non - oxygen - blown 553 in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan were 9,200 yuan/ton, 9,000 yuan/ton, 9,250 yuan/ton, and 8,900 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [1] - The average prices of oxygen - blown 553 in East China, Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, and Kunming were 9,250 yuan/ton, 9,300 yuan/ton, 9,100 yuan/ton, and 9,500 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [1] - The average prices of 421 in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan were 10,000 yuan/ton, 9,750 yuan/ton, 10,000 yuan/ton, and 10,100 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, as the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower electricity costs and a steady increase in enterprise operations. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1] - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some incremental demand. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, and the market supply pressure has increased, and prices may face pressure again. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1] Inventory - According to SMM statistics, on August 7, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 54.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 11.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 42.9 million tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot), a week - on - week increase of 0.8 million tons [1] Polysilicon Price Information - The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feed material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 46 yuan/kg, 47 yuan/kg, 45 yuan/kg, and 44.5 yuan/kg respectively. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.36% to 50,790 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 11 million tons, and the output in August will increase to about 13 million tons month - on - month [1] - On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, and the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased. Recently, due to the expectation of a polysilicon price increase, the downstream silicon wafer price has followed the increase, and enterprises say they will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the market demand was greatly overdrawn by the rush to install capacity in the first half of the year, and the terminal market remains weak [1] Other Information - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has decided to add "Gorns" brand of Xinjiang Gorns Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and "Qiya Group" brand of Xinjiang Qiya Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. as registered brands for polysilicon futures. The new registered brands are applicable to contracts PS2511 and later [1] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and organic silicon products remained unchanged on the previous trading day [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report previously indicated that oil prices in August were under downward pressure, and since early August, crude oil has been continuously weakening. The WTI crude oil price has dropped by approximately $7 during this period. The market's main trading logic is the repricing of geopolitics, with an increased possibility of progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks mediated by the US. However, risks after the continuous decline in oil prices should not be ignored, such as over - optimism about the peace talks and the impact of sanctions. It is not recommended to short oil prices at this time, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the US - Russia - Ukraine talks [5][77]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Overall Decline**: This week, oil prices declined overall. Trump claimed significant progress in talks with Russia and a high possibility of a summit between Zelensky and Putin, leading the market to price in a higher probability of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and causing a rapid drop in oil prices. As of August 7, the WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $63.82 per barrel, Brent crude at $66.41 per barrel, and the SC crude oil futures active contract at 508.9 yuan per barrel [5][10]. - **Weakening of Inter - monthly Spreads**: No detailed content on the specific situation of the weakening of inter - monthly spreads is provided [12]. - **Differentiation in Net Long Positions of Crude Oil Funds**: As of the week ending July 29, the net long position of WTI funds was 97,387 lots, a decrease of 850 lots from the previous week; the net long position of Brent funds was 249,973 lots, an increase of 22,728 lots from the previous week. In the refined oil market, the net long positions of gasoline, diesel, and heating oil increased by 6,049 lots, 2,817 lots, and 2,042 lots respectively [17]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: OPEC+ agreed at an August 3 meeting to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September. The voluntary production cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day are planned to be fully restored. However, in June, the actual increase in production was limited. OPEC's crude oil production in June was 27.235 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day. The main contributor to the increase was Saudi Arabia, while Iran's production decreased due to conflicts [21]. - **United States**: US crude oil production is at a high level, but the ability to increase production is limited due to limited changes in the number of rigs and low producer willingness to expand production at low oil prices. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the weekly US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.367 million barrels per day [31]. - **Risks**: The market is pricing in a higher probability of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, causing a rapid drop in oil prices. Trump's additional tariffs on India for buying Russian oil may be for negotiation chips. With the ongoing US - Russia and Russia - Ukraine talks, considering the VIX level of domestic crude oil, purchasing SC call options can be considered to avoid extreme risks [33]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: As of the week ending August 1, gasoline and jet fuel demand declined, while distillate demand increased slightly. Overall, US oil demand decreased month - on - month. Gasoline demand was 9.04 million barrels per day, a decrease of 112,000 barrels per day from the previous week; distillate demand was 3.72 million barrels per day, an increase of 115,000 barrels per day from the previous week; jet fuel demand was 1.705 million barrels per day, a decrease of 388,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The total US petroleum product demand was 20.122 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.265 million barrels per day from the previous week. Refinery capacity utilization reached 96.9%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous week, and crude oil processing volume was 17.124 million barrels per day, an increase of 213,000 barrels per day from the previous week [34][46]. - **China**: The anti - involution policy has not directly affected the oil market. Attention should be paid to whether it can drive the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and thus increase crude oil demand. In June, consumption improved, and crude oil processing volume increased mainly due to the significant increase in the operating rate of major refineries. The operating rate of local refineries remained low due to tax policy adjustments and the transformation of domestic energy demand [50]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: US crude oil inventories decreased slightly, and the inventory level fluctuated at a low level. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) were 423.662 million barrels, a decrease of 3.029 million barrels from the previous week; SPR inventories were 402.976 million barrels, an increase of 235,000 barrels from the previous week. Cushing's weekly crude oil inventory increased by 460,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories continued to decline but were at a relatively high level, distillate inventories decreased slightly, and jet fuel inventories increased [60][66]. - **OECD**: In June, global crude oil demand was strong, and OECD inventories decreased slightly. The monthly global crude oil supply was 104.9 million barrels per day, demand was 104.43 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 470,000 barrels per day. OECD inventories at the end of June were 2.796 billion barrels, a decrease of 150 million barrels from the previous month [72]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The report reiterates that oil prices declined this week due to the market's repricing of geopolitics. After the continuous decline in oil prices, risks such as over - optimism about peace talks and sanctions should be considered. It is not recommended to short oil prices at this time, and attention should be paid to the US - Russia - Ukraine talks [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand, with marginal improvement in fundamentals and strong support from the raw material end. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen, operating in the range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to focus on range - based operations [85]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Lead Market Review: Oscillating Downward - In July, consumption was average, lead prices fell from highs, and the price center shifted down. In the middle and late June, tight lead concentrate and scrap batteries led to reduced supply at the ingot end and rising lead prices. In early July, high lead prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and prices stabilized. In mid - July, the traditional peak season underperformed, downstream purchasing did not improve substantially, and inventories accumulated, causing lead prices to fall. After the 07 contract delivery, the slow resumption of primary lead and tight scrap batteries led to a temporary supply shortage, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly but weakened again at the end of the month [9]. - As of July 31, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,675 yuan/ton, down 1.62% from the end of June and 14.05% from the same period last year; the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the end of June and 13.47% from the end of last year; the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,735 yuan/ton, down 2.70% from the end of June and 11.01% from the same period last year; the closing price of LME three - month lead (electronic trading) was 1,969.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.53% from the end of June and 6.19% from the same period last year [3][10]. 3.2 Raw Materials & Profits: Strong Cost Support 3.2.1 Primary Lead: Lead Concentrate Remains Tight, TC Drops Slightly - As of July 31, the average price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,175 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the end of June and 14.19% from the same period last year; the average price of imported lead concentrate was 16,031.29 yuan/ton, down 3.09% from the end of June and 5.71% from the same period last year [25]. - In May 2025, global lead concentrate production was 38.28 tons, up 1.46% month - on - month and down 0.05% year - on - year. From January to May, the cumulative production was 181.11 tons, up 2.51% year - on - year. In July, Xinjiang and Qinghai mines increased production, but domestic lead concentrate was still in short supply due to refineries' preference for domestic ore. In June, domestic lead concentrate production was 15.31 tons, up 2.55% month - on - month and 14.94% year - on - year [27]. - Imported lead concentrate had little bulk cargo, and port inventory was basically zero. As of July 31, the profit of imported lead concentrate was 143.71 yuan/ton. In June, lead concentrate imports were 11.80 tons, up 13.54% month - on - month and 26.90% year - on - year [28]. - Refineries' lead concentrate inventory remained high. As of the end of June, refineries' lead concentrate inventory was 41.70 tons, and the raw material inventory days were 26 days. Due to tight ore supply, lead concentrate processing fees declined, but refinery profits improved due to by - product revenues [39]. - As of July 31, primary lead smelting profit (processing) was 46.8 yuan/ton. As of July 25, domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton. As of July 27, the average sulfuric acid price in East China was 630 yuan/ton, and the average price of No. 1 silver on July 31 was 8,939 yuan/kg [40]. 3.2.2 Recycled Lead: The Peak Scrap Battery Season Didn't Materialize, Scrap Battery Prices Remained Firm - In July, the peak scrap battery season did not arrive. Recyclers adopted a "quick - in, quick - out" model, and prices were firm. However, recycled lead refineries faced cost inversion and were cautious in purchasing, resulting in a stalemate in the scrap battery market. - As of July 31, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, the comprehensive cost of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,257 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was 17,482 yuan/ton. The profit of recycled lead refineries was - 1,174 yuan/ton [43][44]. 3.3 Supply Side: Slight Accumulative Increase 3.3.1 Primary Lead: Slight Decline in Operating Rate - In May 2025, global refined lead production was 111.16 tons, down 0.98% month - on - month and up 3.18% year - on - year. In July in China, primary lead operating rate first declined and then recovered. It is estimated that July production was 32.37 tons, down 1.49% month - on - month and up 5.44% year - on - year [54][55]. 3.3.2 Recycled Lead: Slow Resumption of Operating Rate - Since mid - April, recycled lead operating rate declined due to tight raw materials and weak demand. In July, with the approaching peak season and raw material replenishment, the operating rate slowly recovered. However, high scrap battery prices and weak demand led to light spot trading and increasing finished - product inventory. It is estimated that July production was 25.8 tons, up 13.96% month - on - month and 1.30% year - on - year [60]. 3.4 Demand Side: In the Off - Peak Season 3.4.1 Low Downstream Purchasing in the Consumption Off - Peak Season - In July, the lead - acid battery market was in the transition period between off - peak and peak seasons. Some enterprises planned to stock up, but high inventory levels limited the stocking intensity. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was relatively stable. Electric bicycle battery demand increased, while automobile battery production was based on sales. Due to cost factors, downstream buyers preferred primary lead [68]. 3.4.2 Continuous Closure of the Export Window - In June 2025, lead - acid battery exports were 1,874.46 million units, down 6.69% month - on - month and 20.53% year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative exports were 11,304.30 million units, down 6.61% year - on - year [71]. 3.5 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - In July, primary lead production was stable, and recycled lead production increased. Demand entered the peak season, and some downstream enterprises stocked up. Primary lead inventory decreased, while recycled lead inventory increased at the end of the month. Social inventory increased due to high spot - futures spreads. - As of July 31, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory was 7.30 tons, up 29.66% from the end of June and 72.99% from the same period last year. SHFE lead inventory was 6.33 tons as of July 25, and LME lead inventory was 27.53 tons as of July 31 [75]. 3.6 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In July, market trading was average, and lead prices oscillated downward. In August, lead prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen due to peak - season expectations and raw material issues. - Macroscopically, China's "anti - involution" sentiment still lingers, and the US inflation restricts the Fed's interest - rate cut path. However, the weak employment data in July increased the expectation of a September interest - rate cut, reducing the pressure on non - ferrous metals. The US has reached 10% - 41% tariff rates with more trading partners, and the effective date of reciprocal tariffs has been postponed to August 7. - Fundamentally, raw material issues strongly support lead prices. Lead concentrate remains tight, and scrap battery supply is limited. On the supply side, primary lead refineries will resume production in August, and recycled lead will resume production slowly. On the demand side, it will enter the traditional peak season, but exports may be affected by tariffs [83][84].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The weak US employment data has boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the continuous gold - buying by central banks supports the prices of precious metals. The prices of precious metals are likely to rise and investors are advised to buy on dips, while being vigilant about the potential rebound of US consumer - end inflation caused by additional tariffs [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data in the US - **Employment**: The number of non - farm payrolls in July dropped to 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data for May - June was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, higher than the previous value. The average hourly wage rate in July was 3.9%, higher than expected and the previous value [4][43]. - **Inflation**: In June, the CPI and core CPI annual rates were 2.7% and 2.9% respectively, higher than expected and the previous value. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations in July were 4.4% and 3.6% respectively, lower than expected and the previous value [4][13]. - **Manufacturing and Services**: The ISM manufacturing PMI in July was 48, lower than expected and the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, lower than the previous value and expected [34]. - **Housing**: The 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates at the end of July decreased to 5.85% and 6.72% respectively. The total sales volume of new and existing homes in June decreased month - on - month [38][41]. - **Retail and Consumption**: The retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, higher than the previous value and expected. The personal consumption expenditure month - on - month rate in June was flat with expectations but higher than the previous value [50][57]. - **Durable Goods**: The new orders for durable goods month - on - month rate in June was - 9.3%, higher than expected but lower than the previous value [53]. - **Debt and Finance**: The US outstanding public debt increased by $61.2 billion compared with last month. The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was about $84.4 billion. The OFR financial stress index decreased [21][22][27]. 3.2 Central Bank Policies in Other Countries - **European Central Bank**: The eurozone's July CPI initial value increased by 2% year - on - year, and the GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.1% quarter - on - quarter, getting out of the technical recession. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates at most once in the second half of the year. The ECB is reducing its balance sheet [61][63]. - **Bank of England**: The UK's CPI and core CPI annual rates in June were 3.6% and 3.7% respectively, higher than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut interest rates only once before the end of 2025 [66]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised its core inflation forecast for 2025 to 2.7% and will reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The expectation of interest rate hikes before the end of 2025 has cooled [69]. 3.3 Precious Metals Market - **Geopolitical and Central Bank Buying**: The global geopolitical risk index decreased in July, but uncertainties remain. The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month [72][75]. - **ETF and Futures Positions**: The US gold ETF volatility index increased. The non - commercial long - short position ratio of COMEX gold futures increased, while that of COMEX silver futures decreased [77][82][85]. - **Inventory**: The gold inventories in SHFE and COMEX increased, while the silver inventories in SHFE decreased and those in SGE and COMEX increased [88]. - **Price Ratios**: The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) is at a relatively high level, and the "gold - oil ratio" and "gold - copper ratio" are also high. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities of the "gold - silver ratio" and long - position opportunities of the "gold - oil ratio" and "gold - copper ratio" [91][94].

| HONGYUAN FUTURES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-06 | 2025-07-30 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 15525 | 15495 | 14945 | 30.00 | | | 成交量(手) 403674 天然橡胶 | 261478 | 377621 | 142, 196.00 - 1 | | | -243 00 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - - 1 - - - - 期货活跃合约 持仓量(手) 182761 | 183004 | 193642 | | | | 注册仓单量 176320 | 176470 | 179910 | -150.00 | | | 天然橡胶基差 -1100 天然橡胶基差 | -1020 | 30 | -80.00 | | | 天津-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 -125 | -125 | -175 | 0.00 | | | (现货与期货) 山东-上海标准胶S ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are relatively loose with profit recovery and increased production, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to wait and see and not chase high prices (View Score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On August 7, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 70,000 yuan/ton, 71,920 yuan/ton, 72,300 yuan/ton, and 72,300 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day. The closing price of the active contract was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 766,669 lots (+341,310), and the open interest was 289,832 lots (+32,062) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 16,443 tons, an increase of 1,420 tons from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts were 16,443 tons (+1,420) [1]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 1,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,520 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate dry average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) changed from a premium to a discount, decreasing by 2,530 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Lithium Ore and Lithium - Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 757 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The prices of various types of lithium mica also increased [1]. - **Lithium - Related Products**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton. The average price of some lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and phosphoric acid lithium iron also showed an upward trend [1]. 3.3 Cobalt Spot Prices - The average price of electrolytic cobalt remained unchanged at 266,500 yuan/ton. The average prices of cobalt sulfate and tricobalt tetroxide increased by 100 yuan/ton and 650 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.4 SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,418 tons on August 7, 2025, an increase of 692 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory of downstream increased by 2,271 tons, while the inventory of smelters and others decreased [1]. 3.5 Market News and Demand - Supply Situation - **Market News**: In July, China's imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8% [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. The production of phosphoric acid lithium iron and ternary materials increased, while the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide decreased and that of lithium manganate increased in August. The production of power batteries decreased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in August [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional consumption off - season in China suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad is oscillating upwards, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Copper Futures - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,460, up 180 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,710 lots, a decrease of 13,679 lots; the open interest was 157,601 lots, a decrease of 973 lots; the inventory was 20,145 tons, a decrease of 201 tons [2]. - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,500, up 150 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 40, a decrease of 30; the spot premium of Guangzhou electrolytic copper was - 45, an increase of 10; the spot premium of North China electrolytic copper was - 120, unchanged; the spot premium of East China electrolytic copper was - 15, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,670.5, down 3.5 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 156,000 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was - 65.63, down 3.01; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was - 140, an increase of 4.79; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1133, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.414, up 0.03 from the previous day; the total inventory was 263,296 tons, an increase of 1,106 tons [2]. 3.2 Copper Foil Industry - Benefiting from good terminal orders, the operating rate of the copper foil industry is on the rise. In July 2025, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 2.50 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.00 percentage points. SMM expects that the overall operating rate of the copper foil industry in August 2025 will continue to rise to 78.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.51 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Industry News - On August 5, the environmental assessment approval of the annual production project of 40,000 tons of copper strip blanks and tool steel of Anhui Zhongzui Copper Industry Co., Ltd. was publicly announced, with a 7 - day announcement period [2]. - Indonesia's PT Cresik smelter entered maintenance due to oxygen supply equipment failure, with a maintenance period of 2 - 4 weeks. The annual output of this smelter is about 300,000 tons, and the estimated impact on production is about 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Copper Products Industry - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared with last week, leading to an increase in the operating rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) compared with last week, and an increase in the raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased compared with last week [3]. - The order volume (operating rate of production capacity) of China's copper enameled wires has increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of enameled wire enterprises have decreased compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate (production volume) of China's copper strip production capacity has increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises have decreased compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper tube production capacity has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have remained the same (increased) compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate of China's brass rod production capacity has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have decreased compared with last week [3]. 3.5 Investment Strategy - Due to the intertwined factors of the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off - season, the operating rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises in August may decrease month - on - month. Specifically, the operating rates of electrolytic copper rods, copper strips, copper foils, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the operating rates of recycled copper rods, copper wire and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [3].

| 贵金属日评20250808:特朗普已经确定临时美联储理事,中国央行连续九个月增持黄金 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-06 | 2025-08-01 | 收盘价 | 785. 02 | 770. 72 | 1.34 | 14. 30 | 783.68 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 187081.00 | 191341.00 | -4. 260.00 | 189185.00 | -2.104.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 217630.00 | 215212. 00 | 218768.00 | 2, 418. 00 | -1,138.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 36045.00 | 36045.00 | 35745.00 | 0. 00 | 300. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are relatively loose as profit margins are restored and production has rebounded, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see and not chase high prices (View Score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On August 7, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 70,000 yuan/ton, 71,920 yuan/ton, 72,300 yuan/ton, and 72,300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,140 yuan/ton, 2,660 yuan/ton, 2,680 yuan/ton, and 2,680 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 766,669 lots (+341,310), and the open interest was 289,832 lots (+32,062) [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 16,443 tons (+1,420) [1] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 1,920 yuan/ton (-1,520 compared to the previous day), the basis changed from a premium to a discount [1] 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Products Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 757 US dollars/ton (+9), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also increased [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 71,100 yuan/ton (+150), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 69,000 yuan/ton (+150) [1] - **Other Products**: The prices of products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and cobalt - related products also showed different degrees of changes [1] 3.3 SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory - **By Sector**: On August 7, 2025, the inventory of smelters was 20,999 tons (-959 compared to the previous week), the inventory of downstream was 48,159 tons (+2,271), and the inventory of others was 43,260 tons (-620). The total inventory was 142,418 tons (+692) [1] 3.4 Market Information - **Customs Data**: In July, China's total imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% [1] - **Market Trends**: On August 7, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The production of lithium carbonate increased last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production of ternary materials increased, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased in August, and the production schedule of lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries decreased last week, the production of energy - storage batteries increased in August, and the sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month in July [1]

| | 黄讯 | 1.海关总署:7月份,进出口3.91万亿元,增长6.7%。其中,出口2.31万亿元,增长8%:进口1.6万亿元,增长4.8%。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 媒 | 8月7日,沪铁主力合约高位震荡,成交量为96611手(+871),特仓量为81103手(-4949),伦森跌0.13%。现货市场成交一 般,甚差升水缩小。供给端,铁矿价格持平,上周铁矿到浴堂增加,港口库存累库;铁铁厂亏损隔度收窄。8月国内排产持 平,印尼排产增加,煤铁累库;8月国内电解银桃产增加,出口盈利扩大。需求端,三元排产增加;不锈钢厂根产增加;合 金与电镀需求稳定。库存来看,上狗所减少,LME减少,社会库存减少,保税区库存增加。综上,她银基本面偏松,但美联 | | | | 储降息预期增强,预计操价区间震荡。操作上,建议逢高法空。(观点评分:0) | | | | 风险提示:美联储降息预期变化,"反内卷"政策落地 | | 投资集略 | | | | | | 8月7日,不锈钢主力合约区间震荡,成交量为85499手(+3480),持仓量为81584手(-2462);现货市场成交一般,基差升水 | | | | 缩 ...