1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon price has been adjusted downward due to cooling sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the futures market. However, the bullish sentiment has resurfaced recently, and it is expected that the silicon price will remain strong at a high level. For polysilicon, since the end of June, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the polysilicon futures market has continued to rise, and the price has repeatedly hit new highs since listing. Although the sentiment has faded recently, there are still fluctuations, and the price remains strong at a high level with large market volatility, so operation requires caution [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.10% to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 0.52% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.33% to 9,000 yuan/ton. The N - type polysilicon material price remained unchanged, with N - type dense material at 46 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material at 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material at 45 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon at 44.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract rose 4.32% to 52,985 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Supply: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower electricity costs and steadily increasing enterprise operations. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some demand increments. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, with a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, increasing market supply pressure and potentially pressuring prices again. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis of Polysilicon - Supply: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, the output is expected to increase slightly, with an expected output approaching 110,000 tons in July and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is generally weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit. Enterprises say they will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the high - volume installations in the first half of the year have significantly overdrawn demand, and the terminal market remains weak [1]. 3.4 Industry News - Silicon Bao Technology has launched self - developed low - density, high - flame - retardant organic silicon sealing materials for the power battery adhesive field, and double - component fast - curing organic silicon sealants for the photovoltaic adhesive field [1]. - Indian energy enterprise SAEL Industries' subsidiary will build a 5GW battery and 5GW component vertically integrated factory in Uttar Pradesh, with a total investment of about 6.8 billion yuan [1].

Report Overview - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Iron Ore [1] - Date: August 11, 2025 [3] - Author: Bai Jing [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore supply and demand currently show no significant contradictions. The current shipments and arrivals have both decreased compared to the previous period. Shipments continue to decline due to ongoing maintenance at some Australian mines, and arrivals from Australia and Brazil have decreased while non - mainstream arrivals have increased, keeping the overall supply at a relatively low level. [9] - The previous period's pig iron output was 240,320 tons, a decrease of 390 tons compared to the previous period. It is expected to have a slight rebound this period, remaining at a high - level fluctuation. The expectation of northern production restrictions in the middle and late period affecting demand has led to a continuous weakening of the 9 - 1 spread. After the main contract switch, the 01 basis has been significantly repaired, and it may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Fundamentals and Conclusions 3.1.1 Price and Inventory - Last week, iron ore spot prices fluctuated slightly. For example, Carajás fines decreased by 5, PB fines by 3, BRBF increased by 13, etc. As of August 8, the Platts 62% index closed at $101.5, a weekly increase of $2.2, equivalent to about 848.5 yuan after currency conversion. [6] - As of August 8, the optimal deliverable was NM fines, with a latest quote of about 767 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) was about 792 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore was at par with the spot, and the second - best deliverable was pb fines. [6] - The inventory of 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory of 47 ports was 142.6727 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 13.43 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 14.13 million tons lower than the same period last year. [6] 3.1.2 Supply - Shipments: The total global iron ore shipments this period were 3.0467 million tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons compared to the previous period. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2.4277 million tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons compared to the previous period. Australian shipments were 1.5803 million tons, a decrease of 140,900 tons compared to the previous period, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.3656 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons compared to the previous period. Brazilian shipments were 847,400 tons, an increase of 104,700 tons compared to the previous period. [7] - Arrivals: From August 4 to August 10, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2.5716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2.3819 million tons, a decrease of 125,900 tons compared to the previous period; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1.203 million tons, a decrease of 50,100 tons compared to the previous period. [7] 3.1.3 Demand - The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills in the current period decreased. The average daily output was 240,320 tons/day, a decrease of 390 tons/day compared to the previous period. There were 4 new blast furnace restart operations and 3 blast furnace maintenance operations. According to the blast furnace start - stop plan, the pig iron output may slightly rebound in the next period. [8] - As of August 8, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3,114 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 196 yuan. The long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 236 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric - arc furnaces in East China (Fubao's calculation) was about 3,369 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,241 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of East China rebar was about - 129 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 1 yuan. [8] 3.2 Second Part: Data Sorting 3.2.1 Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - As of August 8, the optimal deliverable was NM fines with a warehouse receipt price of about 792 yuan/ton, and the second - best was PB fines with a warehouse receipt price of 801 yuan/ton. [14] - A table provided detailed information on the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties such as PB fines, Newman fines, and Mac fines. [14] 3.2.2 Iron Ore Inter - period - As of August 8, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 16.5 (- 9.5). [17] 3.2.3 Iron Ore Import Profit No specific data or analysis was provided in the report. 3.2.4 High - Low Grade Price Difference No specific data or analysis was provided in the report. 3.2.5 Premium Index - As of August 7, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.185 (+ 0.0025), and the premium index for 65% pellet ore was 16 (+ 0.6). [25] 3.2.6 Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory - The report presented inventory trends of various iron ore brands such as Mac fines, PB fines, and Jinbuba fines in 15 ports from 2021 to 2025, as well as the discount and premium trends of these brands over the years. [28] 3.2.7 Steel Mill Sintered Fines Inventory - As of August 8, the inventory of imported sintered fines decreased by 38,800 tons compared to August 1, a decrease of 2.96%. The inventory of domestic sintered fines increased by 2,100 tons, an increase of 2.35%. The average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1 day, a decrease of 4.76%. [31] 3.2.8 Port Inventory and Berthing - The report showed the historical trends of total port inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers at 47 ports, Australian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), Brazilian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), and trade ore inventory at ports (45 ports) from 2021 to 2025. [36] 3.2.9 Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of August 8, compared to August 1, the inventory of imported port lump ore decreased by 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1.59%; the inventory of pellet ore decreased by 43,000 tons, a decrease of 11.40%; the inventory of iron concentrate increased by 47,000 tons, an increase of 4.44%; and the inventory of coarse ore increased by 78,000 tons, an increase of 0.74%. [39] 3.2.10 Ore Removal The report presented the historical ore removal volume data from 2020 to 2025. [42] 3.2.11 Iron Ore In - Transit Volume The report showed the historical trends of iron ore in - transit volume from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream sources to China from 2022 to 2025. [45] 3.2.12 Iron Ore Import Volume The report presented the historical import volume data of iron ore in China, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, and other countries from 2020 to 2025. [48][49][50] 3.2.13 Australian Iron Ore Shipments - From August 8 to August 1, Australian shipments to China decreased by 123,000 tons, a decrease of 8.25%. Total Australian shipments decreased by 140,900 tons, a decrease of 8.19%. The proportion of shipments to China decreased by 0.1%, a decrease of 0.07%. [57] 3.2.14 Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments - From August 8 to August 1, Brazilian shipments to the world increased by 105,000 tons, an increase of 14.10%. [62] 3.2.15 Shipments of the Four Major Mines - From August 8 to August 1, Rio Tinto's shipments increased by 57,000 tons, an increase of 10.88%; BHP's shipments decreased by 87,000 tons, a decrease of 17.26%; Vale's shipments decreased by 27,000 tons, a decrease of 4.55%; FMG's shipments decreased by 25,000 tons, a decrease of 8.67%. The total shipments of the four major mines decreased by 82,000 tons, a decrease of 4.29%. [64] 3.2.16 Iron Ore Arrivals - From August 8 to August 1, the arrivals at 45 ports decreased by 126,000 tons, a decrease of 5.0%. The arrivals at northern ports decreased by 50,000 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. [71] 3.2.17 Freight Rates The report showed the historical trends of iron ore freight rates from Tubarão, Brazil, to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao from 2020 to 2025. [73] 3.2.18 Domestic Ore Production The report presented the estimated domestic ore production data from 2017 to 2025. [75] 3.2.19 Steel Mill Fines Consumption and Capacity Utilization - As of August 8, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points compared to August 1. The average daily pig iron output was 240,300 tons, a decrease of 390 tons compared to August 1. The daily consumption of imported sintered fines increased by 1,850 tons compared to August 1, an increase of 3.10%. The daily consumption of domestic sintered fines increased by 100 tons compared to August 1, an increase of 1.23%. [77] 3.2.20 Pig Iron Production The report presented the historical daily pig iron production data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association from 2016 to 2025. [84] 3.2.21 Global Pig Iron Production The report showed the historical pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 to 2025. [87] 3.2.22 Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production The report presented the historical pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 to 2025 and the corresponding year - on - year and month - on - month changes. [92]

| 位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦银34-36附近支撑位及37-40附近压力位，沪银8500-8700附近支撑位及9100-9500附近压力位。（观点评 | | --- | | 分:0) | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的准 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已才求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资渡议。我 | | 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机物和个人不得以任何形式剧版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和VIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Weekly Summary**: PX prices declined this week due to the dissipation of macro - sentiment. Its fundamentals had little change, and the expected increase in supply from newly - commissioned reforming units affected market sentiment, but had no significant impact on the supply - demand balance. PX inventory was at a year - on - year low, so the price continued to fluctuate with support at the bottom. PTA prices fell and remained low, with no unexpected news. The spot supply was sufficient, and the impact of planned PTA plant overhauls was already factored in, while unplanned production cuts had limited market - boosting effects. The continuous shipment by major PTA suppliers weakened the spot basis, and downstream demand remained sluggish [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Concerns about Russia's oil supply disruptions are expected to ease, and crude oil prices will continue to be under pressure. An East China 1 million - ton PX plant may restart, but Asian supply is relatively low, and new PTA plants' procurement provides a bottom for PX demand. In the PTA market, some plants will overhaul and some will restart, and supply will be sufficient next week. For polyester, the first - round overhaul of polyester filament has been implemented, and the theoretical production losses of most polyester products have narrowed, with polyester filament POY slightly profitable, so polyester factories are not expected to overhaul for now. In the weaving sector, the shipment of autumn and winter fabrics has improved locally, and a small number of foreign trade orders have been placed, but most factories lack orders. Overall, PX will fluctuate in the range of 6,650 - 6,900 yuan/ton, and PTA will fluctuate in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - **Weekly Summary**: PX prices dropped due to macro - sentiment fading, with stable fundamentals and expected supply increase. PTA prices declined and remained low, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Crude oil prices will be under pressure. PX will maintain a range - bound trend with a potential plant restart and stable demand. PTA supply will be sufficient next week. Polyester factories may not overhaul, and weaving orders are still scarce. PX will fluctuate between 6,650 - 6,900 yuan/ton, and PTA between 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. The strategy is to observe [9]. 3.2 Price Situation - **PX**: The closing price of the PX main contract on August 8 was 6,726 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton from August 1, a change of - 1.26%. The settlement price on August 8 was 6,748 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan/ton from August 1, a change of - 1.43%. The average PX domestic spot price from August 4 - 8 was 6,741.4 yuan/ton, down 154.4 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 2.24% [14][15]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA main contract on August 8 was 4,684 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from August 1, a change of - 1.28%. The settlement price on August 8 was 4,688 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton from August 1, a change of - 1.53%. The average PTA arrival price in the Chinese market from August 4 - 8 was 594.4 US dollars/ton, down 20.4 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of - 3.32%. The average PTA spot price in the East China market was 4,681.8 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 2.9% [19][22]. 3.3 Device Operation Situation - **PX Devices**: Many domestic PX plants are operating at different loads, and some plants in Asia have restarted or are under maintenance. The domestic PX operating rate has recovered, with the rate from August 4 - 8 at 82.01%, up from 80.66% from July 28 - August 1 [27][29][32]. - **PTA Devices**: Some PTA plants have carried out overhauls, and the weekly PTA operating rate has decreased by 3.75%. Although some plants are restarting, supply remains sufficient [35][36]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: - **Crude Oil**: WTI crude oil's August 8 futures settlement price was 63.88 US dollars/barrel, down 3.45 US dollars/barrel from August 1. Brent crude oil's August 8 futures settlement price was 66.59 US dollars/barrel, down 3.08 US dollars/barrel from August 1. OPEC + production increase, trade disputes, and other factors have put pressure on oil prices [43]. - **Naphtha**: The weekly average CFR Japan naphtha price was 578.32 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 37.49 US dollars/ton. The supply - demand structure was stable, and the price decline mainly followed crude oil [50]. - **PX Spot**: The weekly average CFR China main port PX price was 840.25 US dollars/ton, a change of - 1.83% from the previous period; the weekly average FOB Korea price was 813.60 US dollars/ton, a change of - 2.14% from the previous period. The spot market buying interest was weak during the polyester off - season [53]. - **Supply**: - **PX Processing Margin**: The PXN weekly average was 261.94 yuan/ton, with a 1.66% change from the previous period, and the PX - MX margin continued to rise [56]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The average PTA spot processing fee from August 4 - 8 was 154.48 yuan/ton, down from the previous week's 202.74 yuan/ton, falling below the industry average break - even point [59]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, PTA social inventory was 4.51 million tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous week, with a - 1.06% change in the month - on - month growth rate. PTA factory inventory days decreased by 0.12 days, while polyester factory inventory days increased by 0.30 days [63][65]. - **Demand**: - **Polyester Products**: The average prices of some polyester products have changed slightly, with some rising and some falling. The first - round reduction of polyester filament in August has been implemented. The average weekly polyester production and sales rate from August 4 - 8 was estimated at 60%. Polyester factories' average weekly load was 86.68%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms' average weekly load was 57.83%. Long - filament production and sales are expected to pick up next week [70][76]. - **Weaving**: Most weaving factories lack orders, and only a few can produce until mid - September. The operating rates of various regions' weaving machines have remained stable [84].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View Last week, the black - series was affected by supply - side disturbance expectations and showed a volatile and slightly stronger performance. Currently in the off - season, the demand for finished products continued to weaken month - on - month. Although the inventory showed seasonal accumulation, the contradiction was not prominent. Starting from mid - August, northern regions strengthened production restrictions, supporting the steel price to remain firm. It is expected that the short - term RB01 contract will fluctuate between the valley - electricity cost (3241) and the flat - electricity cost (3369), and cautious operation is recommended. [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Conclusion and Balance Sheet - **Steel Price and Inventory**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices rebounded slightly. As of August 7, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 1.79 tons, the factory inventory increased by 3.34 tons, and the social inventory increased by 20.113 tons. The apparent demand was 845.74 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.29 tons. [5] - **Profit**: As of August 8, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process production of rebar in East China was 3114 yuan, with a profit of about 196 yuan; the profit of long - process hot - rolled coil was about 236 yuan. For electric furnaces in East China, the flat - electricity cost was about 3369 yuan, and the valley - electricity cost was about 3241 yuan. The flat - electricity profit of rebar was about - 129 yuan, and the valley - electricity profit was about - 1 yuan. [5] - **Scrap Steel**: As of August 7, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 34.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 55.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 tons. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 49 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.6 tons, a decrease of 8.6%. The scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises totaled 465.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.6 tons, a decrease of 2.6%. [6] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Macro Data**: In the first half of 2025, enterprise (institution) loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.5% of all new loans, 6.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The PMI in July was 49.3%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first half of 2025 was 24.8654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In June, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) increased by 1.95% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by 5.06%; real estate development investment decreased by 12.4%. [18][20][25] - **Steel Production and Inventory**: The output of five major steel products increased by 1.79 tons, and the inventory increased. The output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, the factory inventory increased by 6.05 tons, and the social inventory increased by 4.34 tons. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.9 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 1.42 tons, and the social inventory increased by 10.1 tons. [10] - **Supply (Long - Process)**: As of August 8, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 240.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39 tons. [45] - **Supply (Short - Process)**: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of 89 electric arc furnace plants in China was 34.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 percentage points. As of August 8, the pig iron - scrap steel price difference was - 45 yuan, an increase of 37 yuan. [48] - **Scrap Steel**: The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills decreased, and the inventory decreased. [6] - **Building Materials Market**: The transaction volume of building materials and the cement mill start - up rate showed certain fluctuations. The national cement mill start - up load average was 35.71%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from last week. [73] - **Real Estate Market**: From January to June, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 20.0%, and the completed area decreased by 14.8%. [28] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Market**: The output of hot - rolled coil decreased, the apparent demand decreased, and the inventory increased. [81] - **Export Situation**: As of August 8, the FOB export price of China was 475 US dollars, an increase of 3 US dollars; the export profit was - 10.9 US dollars, a decrease of 5.8 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 264.44 tons, a decrease of 63.34 tons. [93]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report holds a bearish outlook on methanol's fundamentals. Although upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair, making methanol relatively over - valued. The anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and with high raw material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory accumulation is likely, which will suppress the spot price in East China. Despite the influence of coking coal sentiment, the rebound space of methanol is expected to be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2497 yuan/ton on August 7, 2025, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2454 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%); MA09 closed at 2388 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.33%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In different regions on August 7, 2025, prices in Taicang were 2382.50 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton, -0.21%); in Shandong, 2342.50 yuan/ton (up 12.50 yuan/ton, 0.54%); in Guangdong, 2380.00 yuan/ton (-2.50 yuan/ton, -0.10%); in Shaanxi, 2127.50 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton, 0.24%); in Sichuan - Chongqing, 2235.00 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Hubei, 2375.00 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Inner Mongolia, 2105.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Price Difference**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was -114.50 yuan/ton on August 7, 2025, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: On August 7, 2025, Ordos Q5500 was 492.50 yuan/ton (up 2.50 yuan/ton, 0.51%); Datong Q5500 was 562.50 yuan/ton (unchanged); Yulin Q6000 was 572.50 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: In Hohhot, it was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter (unchanged); in Chongqing, it was 3.30 yuan/cubic meter (unchanged) [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit was 451.50 yuan/ton on August 7, 2025, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.38%); natural gas - based methanol profit was -500.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: Northwest MTO profit was 63.00 yuan/ton (unchanged); East China MTO profit was -641.57 yuan/ton, up 9.50 yuan/ton (1.46%); acetic acid profit was 215.84 yuan/ton, up 4.42 yuan/ton (2.09%); MTBE profit was 207.68 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton (10.66%); formaldehyde profit was -301.60 yuan/ton (unchanged); and another unnamed product's profit was 142.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. 3.4 Important Information - **Domestic Information**: Methanol's main contract MA2509 oscillated and declined on August 7, 2025, opening at 2397 yuan/ton, closing at 2388 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 291,156 lots and an open interest of 436,712 lots. All contracts except 2508 had trading volume [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in other regions of the Middle East has resumed normal operation in the past two days, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy and Conclusion - The previous trading day, MA oscillated within a range, and the night - session closed at 2394. The expected anti - involution policy will cause repeated fluctuations, and the large fluctuations in coking coal will affect the sentiment of coal - chemical industries. Based on the weak fundamentals, the rebound space of methanol is expected to be limited [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of consumer - end inflation in the US in July may weaken the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the expectation of global aluminum ingot inventory accumulation puts pressure on aluminum prices [1]. - For alumina, the slight increase in domestic and imported bauxite prices pushes up production costs, but the expected supply - demand loosening due to rising operating capacity may lead to a weak and volatile alumina price [4]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the rebound of consumer - end inflation in the US in July may suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the increasing social inventory at home and abroad may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai aluminum prices [5]. - For aluminum alloy, the tight supply of scrap aluminum leads to continued losses in domestic recycled aluminum alloy production, and the rebound of consumer - end inflation in the US in July may keep the aluminum alloy price in a volatile pattern [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors** - Domestic bauxite production and imports in August may increase, with prices rising slightly. Projects such as the Shanxi Jinzhong energy - saving and efficiency - enhancing renovation project and the Guangxi Fangchenggang new - construction project may increase China's alumina production in August. The domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the matching surplus of China's alumina to electrolytic aluminum operating capacity in July has expanded [4]. - The Indonesian project of Nanshan Aluminum may increase production, and the import window is closed, resulting in a decrease in domestic alumina imports and an increase in exports in August, and a decrease in domestic port alumina inventory [4]. - **Investment strategy** - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the pressure level around 3300 - 3600 [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors** - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in August may increase due to project resumptions and new constructions. Imports in August may also increase as some overseas plants resume production [5]. - **Demand - side factors** - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has increased, but there are differences in different product segments [5]. - **Investment strategy** - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors** - The production of domestic scrap aluminum in August may decrease, and imports may increase. The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys in August may increase, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished - product inventory may decrease [7]. - **Investment strategy** - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 19700 - 19900 and the pressure level around 20200 - 20300 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with an unchanged fundamental surplus. However, LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and domestic bullish sentiment is strong, making it difficult for zinc prices to decline rapidly. Considering that the rebound in zinc prices suppresses the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers and the hedging pressure after the rise in zinc prices, the strategy is still to short on rallies, with an operating range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.76% to 22,400 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose 0.87% to 22,515 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 3.83% to 2,834 US dollars/ton [12]. 2. Raw Material Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate port inventories continued to decline. As of August 8, Lianyungang imported zinc ore inventory was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; the total inventory of 7 ports was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,000 tons [23][25]. - Zinc concentrate profits recovered with the rise in zinc prices. As of August 7, zinc concentrate enterprise production profit was 4,052 yuan/metal ton. In June, zinc concentrate imports were 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%; from January to June, cumulative imports were 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74% [26][32]. - Import TC continued to increase. As of August 8, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index was 82.25 US dollars/dry ton [33][35]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - Refined zinc enterprise production profits continued to improve. As of August 7, refined zinc enterprise production profit was - 112 yuan/ton. In July, domestic refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,700 tons, and it is expected to reach about 620,000 tons in August [36][41]. - The Shanghai - London ratio declined, and the import window was closed. As of August 8, refined zinc import profit was - 1,753.52 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons [42][44]. 3. Demand Side 3.1 Galvanizing - Galvanizing开工率 increased by 0.58 percentage points to 57.35%. Some previously减产 enterprises recovered, driving a slight increase in开工. Terminal market orders were weak, with only tower orders being acceptable, and export orders were weakened due to tariffs [48][50]. - Galvanizing raw material inventories increased. At the beginning of the week, zinc prices were weak, and galvanizing enterprises replenished stocks at low prices. As zinc prices rebounded, purchasing sentiment weakened, and raw material inventories slightly increased. Galvanizing finished product inventories increased due to increased开工 and average orders [51][53]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - Zinc alloy prices rebounded. Zamak3 zinc alloy average price rose 0.74% to 23,095 yuan/ton, and Zamak5 zinc alloy average price rose 0.72% to 23,645 yuan/ton [58][60]. - Die - casting zinc alloy开工率 increased by 0.18 percentage points to 48.42%. Some enterprises resumed production, driving an overall increase in production. Terminal demand showed no obvious improvement, and if shipments remained weak, enterprise开工 might decline [61][63]. - Die - casting zinc alloy raw material inventories decreased due to high zinc prices and strong purchasing pressure. Finished product inventories increased slightly [64][67]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - Zinc oxide prices rebounded. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% increased by 0.94% to 21,500 yuan/ton [69]. - Zinc oxide enterprise开工率 decreased by 0.45 percentage points to 55.68%. It was in the off - season, and开工 fluctuated slightly. Terminal rubber - grade orders did not improve, ceramic - grade demand weakened, and electronic - grade orders were acceptable due to grid support [70][72]. - Zinc oxide raw material inventories decreased as enterprises mainly made rigid purchases due to rising zinc prices. Finished product inventories increased [73][75]. 4. Inventory - Shanghai zinc social inventories continued to increase. As of August 7, SMM zinc ingot three - place inventories were 113,200 tons, and the bonded area inventory was 7,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [78][80]. - SHFE inventories increased. As of August 8, SHFE inventory was 65,900 tons. LME inventories decreased. As of August 7, LME inventory was 81,500 tons [81][83]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the market has experienced both supply surpluses and shortages in different months in 2024 - 2025 [89].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250808: 基本面仍有压力 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | | 单位 | 8月7日 | 8月6日 | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 山东 期现价格 山西 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1757.00 1793.00 1780.00 1650.00 | 1767.00 1802.00 1790.00 1660.00 | -10.00 -9.00 -10.00 -10.00 | -0.57% -0.50% -0.56% -0.60% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1737.00 | 1750.00 | -13.00 | -0.74% | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1790.00 | 1790.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1750.00 | 1770.00 | -20. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair, making methanol relatively over - valued. From a driving force perspective, the anti - involution policy may have limited actual impact on methanol production, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually increasing. With high raw material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory is likely to continue to accumulate, suppressing the spot price in East China. The recent coking coal sentiment will still affect methanol, but the rebound space of methanol is expected to be limited [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2497.00 yuan/ton to 2475.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.00 yuan/ton (-0.88%); MA05 decreased from 2454.00 yuan/ton to 2439.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.00 yuan/ton (-0.61%); MA09 decreased from 2388.00 yuan/ton to 2383.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.21%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In regions like Taicang, the price decreased from 2382.50 yuan/ton to 2380.00 yuan/ton (-0.10%); in Shandong, it decreased from 2342.50 yuan/ton to 2335.00 yuan/ton (-0.32%); in Guangdong, it decreased from 2380.00 yuan/ton to 2372.50 yuan/ton (-0.32%); in Shaanxi, it increased from 2127.50 yuan/ton to 2135.00 yuan/ton (0.35%); in Inner Mongolia, it decreased from 2105.00 yuan/ton to 2090.00 yuan/ton (-0.71%) [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 increased from 492.50 yuan/ton to 495.00 yuan/ton (0.51%), while the prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 2. Profit Changes - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 451.50 yuan/ton to 445.20 yuan/ton (-1.40%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 500.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased from 63.00 yuan/ton to 34.20 yuan/ton (-45.71%); East China MTO profit decreased from - 641.57 yuan/ton to - 654.57 yuan/ton (-2.03%) [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Acetic acid profit decreased from 215.84 yuan/ton to 204.76 yuan/ton (-5.13%); MTBE profit increased from 207.68 yuan/ton to 217.68 yuan/ton (4.82%); formaldehyde profit remained at - 301.60 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 decreased slightly, opening at 2391 yuan/ton, closing at 2383 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 298,400 lots and an open interest of 406,384 lots. All contracts except the 2508 contract had trading volume [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in other regions of the Middle East has resumed normal operation in the past two days, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a certain Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1].