Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on July 30, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range, with increased trading volume and open interest, and LME nickel fell 1.51%. The spot market improved, and the basis premium widened. The nickel iron fundamentals are loose, market sentiment cooled, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. - For stainless steel, on July 30, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range, trading volume increased, and open interest decreased. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium remained unchanged. The current macro - sentiment has a large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, the price needs time to return to the fundamentals, and it is expected to follow macro fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Futures Market Data**: On July 30, the closing price of the Shanghai futures near - month nickel contract was 121,620 yuan/ton (-100), the trading volume was 133,758 lots (+33,388), and the open interest was 91,177 lots (+1,458). The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 15,500 dollars/ton (-60) [2]. - **Supply Side**: Nickel ore prices were flat, the arrival of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventories decreased. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, domestic production decreased in July, Indonesian production decreased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased in July, and export profits increased [2]. - **Demand Side**: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventories decreased, LME inventories increased, social inventories decreased, and bonded - area inventories remained unchanged [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Market Data**: On July 30, the closing price of the Shanghai stainless - steel futures near - month contract was 12,920 yuan/ton (+10), the trading volume was 153,403 lots (+14,642), and the open interest was 102,650 lots (-620) [2]. - **Supply Side**: Stainless - steel production decreased in July [2]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand was weak [2]. - **Cost**: High - nickel pig iron prices rose, and high - carbon ferrochromium prices were flat [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE stainless - steel inventories decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 63,850 tons (-17,800) [2]. Other Information - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, and governors Farrer and Powell voted against and advocated for a rate cut [2].

天然与合成橡胶日评20250731: 天然橡胶震荡偏弱 合成橡胶震荡偏弱 | HONGYUAN FUTURES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-07-30 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-22 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 14945 天然橡胶 | 15010 | 15060 | -65.00 | | | 成交量(手) 377621 | 369834 | 567016 | | 7,787.00 ----- | | 期货活跃合约 持仓量(手) 193642 | 198795 | 216311 | -5.153.00 ~~~~ | | | 注册仓单量 179910 | 181920 | 186620 | -2,010.00 | | | 天然橡胶基差 30 | -135 | -85 | 165.00 | | | 天然橡胶基差 天津-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 -175 | -125 | -125 | -50.00 | | | (现货与期货) 山东-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 -200 | -200 | -1 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both ore and ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continuous inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range considering the repeated "anti - involution" sentiment in the macro - environment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - **Lead** - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day; Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, down 0.06% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 140 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 36.37 dollars/ton, down 4.57 dollars [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 37,318 lots, down 22.22%; open interest was 66,741 lots, up 3.42% [1]. - LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipts inventory was 61,934 tons, up 1.64% [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 1,992 dollars/ton, down 1.39%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.48, up 1.35% [1]. - **Zinc** - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,610 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 60 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was - 2.69 dollars/ton, up 1.23 dollars [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 141,408 lots, up 11.15%; open interest was 116,245 lots, down 1.17% [1]. - LME zinc inventory was 109,050 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts inventory was 15,232 tons, down 0.49% [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,795.5 dollars/ton, down 0.68%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.11, up 0.75% [1]. 3.2 Industry News - **Lead** - Grupo Mexico's Q2 2025 zinc concentrate output was 45,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 56% due to the operation of Buenavista zinc mine and higher ore grade [1]. - In Ningxia, the arrival of watermelon - harvesting season has increased the demand for logistics vehicles, making it difficult for lead smelters to find transport vehicles, and freight has risen by 20 - 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Northeast China's primary lead smelters plan to conduct equipment maintenance from August for 30 - 45 days, ending around mid - September, with an expected lead production impact of 5,000 - 8,000 tons [1]. - **Zinc** - Fresnilloplc's Q2 2025 zinc concentrate metal output was 28,400 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 12.5%, mainly due to higher ore grade and throughput at Saucito and Juanicipio, partially offset by lower grade and recovery at Ciénega [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Lead** - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had a slight decline in production due to equipment failure last week [1]. - Scrap lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and recyclers' supplies are limited. Some secondary lead smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversion, but the acceptance of high - priced secondary lead has improved, and secondary lead production is gradually recovering [1]. - As the end of July approaches, the market still expects peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspended purchases for inventory checks at the end of the month [1]. - **Zinc** - Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Domestic smelters are negotiating August processing fees, and fees are expected to continue rising, weakening cost support [1]. - Zinc prices strengthened during the week, and downstream off - season purchases decreased significantly [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices have resonated and rebounded, but considering the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure, the market may adjust, and long - position sentiment may fluctuate. The polysilicon market has also been rising since late June, with significant price fluctuations and emotional instability, so operations in both markets require caution [1] Summary by Category Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) rose 1.56% to 9,750 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price rose 0.99% to 10,250 yuan/ton. The futures main - contract closing price fell 0.70% to 9,285 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: As silicon prices rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest, power costs have decreased during the wet season, and enterprise operations are steadily increasing. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and supply will increase steadily [1] - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, but some silicon material plants plan to resume production in July, bringing some demand growth. An organic silicon plant has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, and organic silicon prices are rising. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1] - **Investment Strategy**: After the previous macro - driven rally, the industrial silicon market may adjust, but long - position sentiment may fluctuate. Continued attention should be paid to silicon enterprise resumption dynamics [1] Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feed material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The futures main - contract closing price rose 7.68% to 54,705 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, but some new production capacity may be put into operation. After offsetting, production is expected to increase slightly, with July production approaching 110,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Although downstream silicon wafer prices have risen recently, the terminal market remains weak due to over - drawn demand in the first half of the year [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Since late June, the polysilicon market has been rising, and the market is volatile. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment evolution and warehouse receipt registration [1] Other Information - From August 1, 2025, trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted. For non - futures company members or customers, the daily opening volume limits for certain contracts are set, with exceptions for hedging and market - making transactions [1]

从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 黑色金属月报-钢材 目录 情绪降温 钢价剧烈波动 第一部分 结论及平衡表 研究所 白净 第二部分 供需基本面 1 情绪降温 钢价剧烈波动 350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 五大品种表观需求 2022 2023 2024 2025 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335373941434547495153 五大品种钢材社库+厂库（农历） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：钢联、宏源期货研究所 7月国内钢材现货价格大幅上涨，华东上海螺纹3370元（+300），唐山螺纹3260元（+180）； 热卷方面，上海热卷3460元（+260），天津热卷3390元（+170）。 截至7月24日，五大品种钢材整体产量降1.22万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比降6.13吨，社库增 4.97吨。表观需868.13万吨，环比降1.98万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, against the backdrop of improved macro - expectations and robust demand, iron ore prices showed a strong upward trend. The supply was relatively stable, with an increase in shipments mainly from Australia and a decrease in arrivals. The demand was firm, although the pig iron output decreased slightly this period. Considering the high profit per ton of steel, it may remain at a high level in the short term. There is a risk of a decline in pig iron output in the northern region in mid - to late August. In terms of valuation, after the narrowing of the basis of the main contract, the unilateral driving force has weakened, so it is not advisable to chase the rising price and participation should be cautious [8]. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Fundamental Analysis and Conclusion Price - In July, iron ore spot prices fluctuated and rebounded, with increases ranging from 60 - 85 yuan. For example, the price of Karara fines increased by 72 yuan, PB fines by 67 yuan, etc. As of July 25, the Platts 62% index closed at $102.6, up $2.4 week - on - week, equivalent to about 856 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.17. The optimal deliverable was NM fines, with a latest quote of about 775 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 800 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract was at par with the spot. The sub - optimal deliverable was brbf fines [5]. Inventory - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period but was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 14,395.68 tons, an increase of 14 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 1,215 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 1,295 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory at 47 ports may decrease slightly in the next period [5]. Supply - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments in this period were 3,200.9 tons, an increase of 91.8 tons compared to the previous period. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2,677.8 tons, an increase of 198.8 tons. Australian shipments were 1,793.5 tons, an increase of 222.3 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1,489.4 tons, an increase of 104.0 tons. Brazilian shipments were 884.3 tons, a decrease of 23.5 tons [6]. - **Arrivals**: From July 21 - 27, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,319.7 tons, a decrease of 192.1 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2,240.5 tons, a decrease of 130.7 tons; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1,157.3 tons, a decrease of 231.9 tons [6]. Demand - The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly this period, with an average daily output of 242.23 tons/day, a decrease of 0.21 tons/day compared to last week. According to the blast furnace start - up and shutdown plan, the pig iron output may decline slightly in the next period. As of July 25, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of rebar in East China was 3,071 yuan, with a profit of about 328.82 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil was about 329 yuan. In the electric furnace segment, the flat - rate electricity cost of the electric furnace in East China was about 3,359 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity cost was about 3,228 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar was about - 59 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity profit was 72 yuan [7]. Part 2: Data Sorting Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - As of July 25, the optimal deliverable was Newman fines, with a converted warehouse receipt price of 800 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal deliverable was BRBF with a price of 810 yuan/ton [13]. Iron Ore Inter - period Spread - As of July 25, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 29 (- 3) [16]. Iron Ore Import Profit No specific data analysis provided. High - and Low - grade Price Difference No specific data analysis provided. Premium Index - As of July 24, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.1765 (+ 0.0055), and the premium index of 65% pellet was 15 (+ 0.85) [26]. Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory - Various data on the inventory and premium (discount) of different brands of iron ore such as Mac fines, PB fines, etc. are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [28]. Steel Mill Sintered Fine Ore Inventory - As of July 25, the inventory of imported sintered fine ore of 64 sample steel mills was 1,293, a decrease of 62.0 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.03%. The inventory of domestic sintered fine ore was 8, a decrease of 0.7 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. The average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1.0 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.00% [31]. Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory, Consumption, and Inventory - to - Sales Ratio - As of July 25, the inventory of imported ore of steel mills was 8,885.2, an increase of 63.06 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The daily consumption of imported ore was 301.1, a decrease of 0.15 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.05%. The inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore was 29.5, an increase of 0.22 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.75% [33]. Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels - Various data on port inventory (including total inventory, Australian ore inventory, Brazilian ore inventory, etc.) and the number of berthing vessels at 45 ports are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [36]. Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of July 25, the inventory of imported port lump ore was 1,683, an increase of 87 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 5.47%. The inventory of imported port pellet ore was 390, a decrease of 29 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 6.93%. The inventory of imported port iron concentrate was 1,082, an increase of 1 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The inventory of imported port coarse powder was 10,636, a decrease of 54 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.50% [39]. Port Ore Removal - The port ore removal data from 2020 - 2025 are presented in a table, showing the ore removal volume of each month in different years [42]. Iron Ore in Transit at Sea - The data on iron ore in transit at sea from 2022 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [45]. Iron Ore Import Quantity - The import volume data of iron ore from different countries (Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [48][49][50]. Australian Iron Ore Shipment Volume - As of July 25, the volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China was 1,489, an increase of 104 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 7.51%. The total Australian shipments were 1,794, an increase of 222.3 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 14.15%. The proportion of shipments to China was 83.04%, a decrease of 5.1% compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 5.82% [58]. Global Iron Ore Shipment No specific data analysis provided. Brazilian Iron Ore Shipment Volume - As of July 25, the volume of Brazilian iron ore shipped globally was 884, a decrease of 24 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 2.59% [65]. Shipments of the Four Major Mines - As of July 25, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto was 490, an increase of 33 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 7.15%. The shipment volume of BHP was 496, an increase of 36 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 7.89%. The shipment volume of Vale was 639, a decrease of 47 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 6.83%. The shipment volume of FMG was 364, an increase of 85 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 30.43%. The total shipment volume of the four major mines was 1,989, an increase of 107 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 5.69% [66]. Iron Ore Arrivals - As of July 25, the arrivals at 45 ports were 2,241, a decrease of 131 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 5.5%. The arrivals at northern ports were 1,157, a decrease of 232 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 16.7% [73]. Freight Rates - The freight rate data of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao (BCI - C3) and from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [75]. Domestic Iron Ore Production (Estimated) - The estimated domestic iron ore production data from 2017 - 2025 are presented in a table, showing the production volume of each month in different years [77]. Steel Mill Fine Ore Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization - As of July 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.8, a decrease of 0.08 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.09%. The average daily pig iron output was 242.2, a decrease of 0.21 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.09%. The daily consumption of imported sintered fine ore was 59.1, an increase of 0.88 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 1.51%. The daily consumption of domestic sintered fine ore was 8.4, an increase of 0.04 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.48% [79]. Pig Iron Production - The daily pig iron production data from 2016 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts and tables, including the data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association. The year - on - year growth rate of 2024 compared to 2023 and 2025 compared to 2024 are also provided [86]. Global Pig Iron Production - The pig iron production data of different regions (EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, etc.) and the global total from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [89]. Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production - As of July 25, the pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025 are presented in a table, including the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates [94].

镍与不锈钢日评20250730:"反内卷"情绪变化快、波动大 吴金恒(F03100418 Z0021125),联系电话:010-82293229 | 近两周走势 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-28 | 2025-07-22 | 较昨日变化 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 121620.00 | 121500.00 | 123530.00 | 120.00 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 121800.00 | 121620.00 | 123720.00 | 180.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 121930.00 | 121780.00 | 123810.00 | 150.00 | | | | | 122110.00 | 121900.00 | 210.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 124050.00 | 121800.00 | 121620.00 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [2][3] 2. Report's Core View - The sentiment of lithium carbonate futures and spot markets fluctuates greatly, and the divergence between buyers and sellers in the spot market is large. The market is easily influenced by news. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to buy double - straddle options [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: On July 29, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a medium - low level. The trading volume was 744,160 lots (-261,235), and the open interest was 300,620 lots (-77,852). The prices of most contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was -1,420 yuan, a decrease of 380 yuan compared with the previous day [3] - **Spot Market**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price (basis) was 780 yuan, an increase of 1,530 yuan compared with the previous day. The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and different grades of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc., all showed different degrees of change [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased [3] - **Downstream Demand**: Last week, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in June, the production scheduling of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate decreased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, in June, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production scheduling of energy - storage batteries increased in June [3] 3.3 Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 12,276 tons (unchanged), the social inventory was destocked, the smelters destocked, and the downstream and other inventories changed [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak, with relatively high upstream coal - based profits, a slight decline in coastal MTO profits, and poor downstream profits inland that have room for repair. The methanol valuation is relatively high. The anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and it's unlikely to significantly reduce supply. With high raw material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory accumulation is likely, which will suppress the East China spot price. In the short term, policy expectations may fluctuate, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2520 yuan/ton on July 29, up 28 yuan or 1.12% from July 28; MA05 closed at 2455 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.07%; MA09 closed at 2434 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.25% [1] - Methanol spot prices: In太仓, it was 2407.50 yuan/ton on July 29, up 7.50 yuan or 0.31%; in Shandong, it was 2305 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.86%; in Guangdong, it was 2397.50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.21% [1] 2. Cost and Profit - Coal spot prices: Ordos Q5500 was 462.50 yuan/ton on July 29, up 7.50 yuan or 1.65%; Datong Q5500 was 532.50 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan or 0.47%; Yulin Q6000 was 542.50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.93% [1] - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit was 423 yuan/ton on July 29, up 3.70 yuan or 0.88%; natural gas - based methanol profit was - 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit was 292.40 yuan/ton on July 29, up 12.60 yuan or 4.50%; East China MTO profit was - 668.07 yuan/ton, down 46.50 yuan or - 7.48% [1] 3. Market Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2416 yuan/ton, closing at 2434 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 576181 lots and an open interest of 576028, showing a decrease in volume [1] - Overseas information: In a Middle - Eastern country, only one 1 - million - ton methanol plant is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. It is estimated that the loading speed in mid - to - late July will be higher than that in the early part of the month [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint - Due to the continued extension of the mutual suspension of additional tariffs between China and the US, the increasing probability of a Fed rate cut in September, and disruptions in production or transportation at multiple overseas copper mines, combined with the traditional off - season suppressing downstream demand, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, and pay attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - On July 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,840 yuan, down 160 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 65,404 lots, a decrease of 10,226 lots; the open interest was 173,744 lots, down 2,348 lots; the inventory was 18,083 tons, up 251 tons [2][3]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic session) on July 29, 2025, was 9,803 US dollars, up 40.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total registered and cancelled warehouse stock was 0 tons, a decrease of 127,625 tons [3]. 3.2 Company and Project News - In July 2025, Jiangxi Copper Group's first overseas wholly - owned factory, Jiangxi Copper (Zambia) Optoelectronics Co., Ltd.'s wire and cable project, was officially put into full production in the Zambia Mwaiseni Industrial Park. The first - phase investment is 11 million US dollars, with an annual production capacity of 40,000 kilometers of wire and cable and 10,000 tons of oxygen - free copper rods [3]. - Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of Quebrada Blanca due to ore storage problems, and has suspended production at the mine for one month [3]. - Fuye Group plans to establish a subsidiary, Jiangxi Heming Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., in Jiangxi Hengfeng Economic Development Zone to build a project with an annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of recycled electrolytic copper [3]. 3.3 Upstream Production News - Teck Resources has lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in 2025. Mermot's Red Chris copper mine in Canada has suspended operations due to an accident. Anglo Asian Mining's Demirl1 copper mine has started trial production, with an expected production of 4,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2025 and 15,000 tons in 2026 and later. Norilsk Nickel has lowered its 2025 copper production forecast from 353,000 - 373,000 tons to 343,000 - 355,000 tons [5]. 3.4 Macro - level News - The US Senate has passed a stablecoin - related bill, allowing pension funds and other institutions to invest in assets such as gold and digital currencies. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, causing a slight increase in the US consumer - end CPE rate in June. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected and the previous value. The probability of a Fed rate cut in August has increased due to political pressure [4][5].