下游仍以刚需采购为主 铅价难改震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-10-21，LME铅现货升水为-41.78美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化75元/吨至17000 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-20.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/ 吨至17075元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化75元/吨至17075元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化50元/吨至17100元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10000元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10425元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-21，沪铅主力合约开于17130元/吨，收于17160元/吨，较前一交易日变化100元/吨，全天交易 日成交43537手，较前一交易日变化15881手，全天交易日持仓33556手，手较前一交易日变化-4639手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17210元/吨，最低点达到17110元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于17150 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-10-22 苯乙烯延续弱势震荡，等待进一步检修 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-41元/吨（-115）。纯苯港口库存9.90万吨（+0.90万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费147美元/吨 （+1美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费131美元/吨（+1美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差88.5美元/吨（+0.0美元/吨）。华东纯 苯现货-M2价差0元/吨（-35元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1885元/吨（-75），酚酮生产利润-416元/吨（+184），苯胺生产利润826元/吨（+348）， 己二酸生产利润-1117元/吨（+90）。己内酰胺开工率92.41%（-3.59%），苯酚开工率78.00%（+0.00%），苯胺开工率 75.73%（-1.43%），己二酸开工率59.10%（-7.80%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差27元/吨（-38元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-496元/吨（+115元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存202500吨（+6000吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存122500吨（+1000吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-10-22 供应压力仍存，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约12235元/吨，较前交易日变动+80.00元/吨，幅度+0.66%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.83元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.25元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-405，较前交易日变动+170；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.79元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.23元/公斤，现货基差LH01-445，较前交易日变动+150；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.21元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.33元/公斤，现货基差LH01-1025，较前交易日变动+250。 据农业农村部监测，10月21日"农产品批发价格200指数"为120.40，比昨天上升0.27个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为121.60，比昨天上升0.32个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.70元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；牛肉66.21 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；羊肉62.10元/公斤，比昨天上升0.6%；鸡蛋7.38元/公斤，比昨天下降1.3%；白条鸡17.50 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%。 ...

昨日豆一期货小幅下跌。东北地区大豆现货市场仍整体持稳，但受区域供需结构差异影响，价格呈现分化态势。 高蛋白大豆因货源偏紧，价格表现相对坚挺；低蛋白货源则供应较为宽松，价格承压。综合来看，南方地区新豆 供应压力仍存，下游采购心态偏于谨慎，预计在短期内，大豆价格缺乏大幅上扬的内在动力，整体将呈现出平稳 偏强的震荡运行态势。 策略 油料日报 | 2025-10-22 南方新豆供应压力犹存，花生减产题材消化观望为主 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约4061.00元/吨，较前日变化-25.00元/吨，幅度-0.61%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11-21，较前日变化+25，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场新季大豆收割基本进入尾声，因还粮和部分订单下达，粮贸企业积极入市收购，38%以上 蛋白货源较为抢手，优质优价，高蛋白价格坚挺。目前低蛋白普通豆毛粮价格1.8-1.85元/斤不等，价格稳中有涨， 40%左右蛋白塔粮价格1.98-2.02元/斤。因南方高蛋白货源上市进度偏慢且货源品质不如往年，使得东北豆价得以 支撑，走势偏强。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.02元 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-10-22 伊朗装置检修开始增多 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润605元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2010元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差342元/吨（-2），内蒙南线1970元/吨（-80）；山东临沂2290元/吨（-5），鲁南 基差222元/吨（-7）；河南2145元/吨（-15），河南基差77元/吨（-17）；河北2175元/吨（-35），河北基差167元/吨（-37）。 隆众内地工厂库存359900吨（+20500），西北工厂库存223000吨（+19000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单228910吨 （+113670），西北工厂待发订单136730吨（+73530）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2262元/吨（-13），太仓基差-6元/吨（-15），CFR中国261美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-6元/吨 （+4），常州甲醇2355元/吨；广东甲醇2252元/吨（-3），广东基差-16元/吨（-5）。隆众港口总库存1491360吨（-51870）， 江苏港口库存773000吨（-20000），浙江港口库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's strategy for the market is cautiously bearish [4] Core View - The CBOT US soybean price is under pressure due to strong Brazilian exports, and the domestic supply is abundant with increasing soybean inventories, expecting a continued supply - loose pattern. Future market focus lies on policy changes, new - season US soybean harvest, and export conditions. The new - season US soybean imports will impact the market supply - demand around the Spring Festival [3] Market News and Data Summary 粕类 - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2889 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.21%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2321 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.23%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2960 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 71, up 6 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, with a basis of M01 - 19, up 6; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, with a basis of M01 + 1, up 6. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of RM01 + 209, down 1 [1] - **US and Brazilian Data**: As of October 16, the US soybean export inspection volume was 147.4 million tons, exceeding market expectations. The 2025/26 US soybean export inspection volume was 553.8 million tons, a 30.9% year - on - year decrease, reaching 12.1% of the annual export target. The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean sowing progress was 24% (AgRural) or 23.27% (Brazilian Home Agricultural and Commercial Company), higher than last year [2] 玉米 - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2144 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.28%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2429 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (+2.06%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of C11 + 36, down 6; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, with a basis of CS11 + 121, down 49 [4] - **US and Brazilian Data**: As of October 16, the US corn export inspection volume was 131.8 million tons, within the market forecast range. Brazil exported 357.4 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of October, with an average daily export volume 6% lower than the whole of October last year [4][5] Market Analysis Summary 粕类 - Brazilian exports are strong, pressuring CBOT US soybean prices. Domestic supply is abundant with rising soybean inventories, and the supply - loose pattern is expected to continue. Future focus is on policy changes, new - season US soybean harvest, and export conditions [3] 玉米 - In the domestic market, the supply of new - season corn in Northeast and North China is increasing. Farmers in the Northeast are actively selling, and prices are falling. In North China, there is mainly wet corn. Demand from deep - processing enterprises is stable, and feed enterprises are increasing purchases. The supply exceeds demand, and new - grain prices are low. Future focus is on national policies [6] Strategy Summary - The strategy for both the soybean meal and corn markets is cautiously bearish [4]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-10-22 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场利好不足，盘面低位震荡 市场分析 1、10月21日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3157元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨13元/吨，涨幅 0.41%；持仓182020手，环比上涨14315手，成交168391手，环比上涨8384手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—4086元/吨；山东，3260—3620元/吨；华南，3340—3550元/吨； 华东，3410—3500元/吨。 昨日华北、山东、华东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格继续下跌，华南地区小幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格相对稳 定。原油以及沥青期货维持偏弱波动，利空沥青现货市场情绪。就沥青自身基本面而言，目前供需两弱格局延续， 但油价大跌对炼厂利润存在提振，供应端具备一定弹性。与此同时，沥青刚性需求整体表现疲软，下游采购情绪 偏弱，多数市场价格仍延续跌势。目前盘面反弹动力仍不足，等待宏观重要事件落地。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空，短期观望 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - China's current butadiene plants are mainly integrated, with state - owned enterprises accounting for 81.22%, mostly concentrated in PetroChina and Sinopec. High production costs have led to the shutdown of most oxidation - dehydrogenation process plants [2][7][12] - The proportion of butadiene plants with downstream support is 42.7%, and state - owned plants in this category account for 67.66%, with nearly half located in East China [2][12][36] - The four major areas with high demand for butadiene are cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS, accounting for 86.45% of the total demand. Their capacity changes and operating rates are the main factors affecting butadiene demand fluctuations [24][37] - Currently, East China is the main area with a butadiene shortage, while North China, Northeast China, Northwest China, South China, and Central China have varying degrees of surplus. Despite this, China still imports some butadiene due to shortages of certain types [30][32][37] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Introduction - This is the third in the series of in - depth analyses of chemical plants, focusing on the ownership, distribution of butadiene upstream and downstream plants, and marginal plants. The topic is divided into two parts. The first part analyzes the butadiene plants themselves and the raw material balance between regional plants and their downstream counterparts, while the second part will detail the ownership, distribution, and marginal plants of each major downstream area of butadiene [6] 2. Butadiene Plant Analysis - **Capacity Ownership and Distribution**: As of now, there are 71 butadiene plants in China, including 7 shut - down, 8 under construction, and 56 in production. After excluding shut - down (430,000 tons) and under - construction (1.19 million tons) capacities, the total butadiene capacity is 7.137 million tons. State - owned enterprises account for 81.22%, private enterprises 13.03%, and foreign - funded enterprises 5.74%. Carbon - four extraction process plants account for 93.15%, and butene oxidation - dehydrogenation plants 6.85%. Most plants are integrated, with only a few needing to purchase external raw materials [7] - **Shut - down Plants**: Shut - down plants are mainly in East China (5 plants, 370,000 tons) and North China (2 plants, 60,000 tons). Five are state - owned (250,000 tons, 58%), and 2 are private (180,000 tons, 42%). Most shut - down plants use the oxidation - dehydrogenation process due to high production costs [8] - **Under - construction Plants**: There are 8 under - construction plants with a total capacity of 1.19 million tons. Three are in East China (360,000 tons, 30.25%), 2 in Northeast China (360,000 tons, 30.25%), and the rest in South China, Northwest China, and Central China. The capacity with downstream support is 480,000 tons, accounting for 40.33% [8] - **In - production Plants**: Among the 56 in - production plants, 30 are in East China (3.743 million tons, 52.45%), 8 in South China (1.095 million tons, 15.34%), 7 in Northeast China (930,000 tons, 13%), 4 in North China (575,000 tons, 8%), 3 in Northwest China (404,000 tons), 3 in Central China (240,000 tons), and 1 in Southwest China (150,000 tons). State - owned capacity accounts for 48.8% of the total 6.937 million tons [9][10] 3. Marginal Capacity Analysis of Butadiene - **Plants with Downstream Support**: There are 20 existing plants with a total capacity of 3.076 million tons, accounting for 43.1%. There are also 3 under - construction plants with a total capacity of 480,000 tons, expected to be completed from the fourth quarter of this year to 2026 and 2027. Thirteen are state - owned (2.026 million tons, 65.86%), 3 are mixed - ownership (700,000 tons), 3 are private (220,000 tons), and 1 is a Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan joint - venture (130,000 tons). Eleven are in East China (1.661 million tons, 54%) [16] - **Plants without Downstream Support**: There are currently 36 plants with a total capacity of 4.061 million tons. There are also 5 under - construction plants with a total capacity of 710,000 tons. Five plants were shut down between 2008 and 2017, involving a total capacity of 340,000 tons. After excluding shut - down and under - construction capacities, the capacity of plants without downstream support accounts for 43.1% of the existing total. Nineteen are in East China (2.082 million tons), 7 in South China (945,000 tons), 3 in North China (440,000 tons), 3 in Central China (240,000 tons), 3 in Northeast China (290,000 tons), and 1 in Northwest China (64,000 tons). Twenty - six are state - owned (3.071 million tons), 8 are private (710,000 tons), 1 is foreign - owned (200,000 tons), and 1 is a Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan joint - venture (80,000 tons) [16][17][18] 4. Butadiene Downstream Demand Proportion and Regional Raw Material Balance Analysis - **Downstream Demand Distribution**: Butadiene is widely used downstream, mainly in cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, SBS, ESBS, and nitrile rubber, as well as two latex categories (nitrile latex and styrene - butadiene latex). The four major demand areas (cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS) account for 86.45% of the total demand. For downstream plants with external raw material procurement needs, the top four demand areas remain the same, but the structure changes. The external procurement capacity of styrene - butadiene rubber is significantly smaller than that of SBS, and the external procurement capacity of nitrile latex also accounts for a large proportion [24] - **Regional Raw Material Balance Analysis**: By matching the external sales volume of butadiene in major regions with the external procurement demand of downstream areas, it is found that East China is the main area with a butadiene shortage, while North China, Northeast China, Northwest China, South China, and Central China have varying degrees of surplus. The total surplus capacity is basically the same as the shortage capacity, indicating that China's butadiene plants are generally self - sufficient. However, due to shortages of certain types, China still imports some butadiene every year, mainly from South Korea, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the United States [30][31][32]

期货研究报告|能源专题报告 2025-10-21 船舶 LNG 燃料的发展现状与前景展望 研究院 能源化工组 研究员 潘翔 0755-82767160 panxiang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3023104 投资咨询号：Z0013188 康远宁 0755-23991175 kangyuanning@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 内容摘要 ■ 环保法规强制约束，LNG 成为重要合规方案之一 为应对 IMO 2023 与 IMO 限硫令等日趋严格的环保法规，航运业被迫寻求传统燃油的 替代品。LNG 凭借其在硫氧化物、氮氧化物和颗粒物减排上的天然优势，为船东提供 了满足现行排放标准的成熟技术方案，有效规避了安装脱硫塔的高昂成本与不确定性， 成为驱动船用燃料变革初期的核心政策受益者。 ■ 减排与增排双重效应，甲烷问题成核心挑战 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 目录 | | --- | | 内容摘要 1 | | --- | | LNG 船舶燃料的政策背景 3 | | IMO 2020 全球限硫令 3 ...

研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 师橙 封帆 021-60827969 王育武 投资咨询号：Z0022466 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|新能源&有色专题 2025-10-21 前期锌一致性利空因素悄然发生转变 报告摘要 2025 年锌价看空的逻辑主要源于矿端供应修复后国内冶炼端供给端的快速增加， 逻辑演绎 10 个月后，锌价从高点 25000 元/吨下跌至 22000 元/吨。站在当下，虽然国 内供给压力依旧没有改变，但基本面因素悄然发生了边际变化。在微观数据难以进一 步利空，而宏观数据进一步向上的背景下，锌价的回落或已告一段落。 1、国产矿供给增长不及预期，因锌价外强内弱格局的延续，造成国产矿性价比更高， 在当前国产高海拔矿山即将进入冬季停产期以及冶炼厂存在冬储需求的情况下，国产 矿 TC 开始回落。海外矿供应虽然如预期增长，但是同样存在 TC 后期跟随下滑的可 能。 2、当前国内冶炼供给压力依旧，但由于 TC 价格回落，冶炼利润被压缩，这可能会影 响后期的冶炼积极性。此外海外出现了仓单风险，锌锭出口窗口打开，这可能造成国 内社会库存累库幅度不及预期，若出现社 ...