1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - The US economic data indicates an increasing possibility of interest - rate cuts. The market is focusing on November employment data and the appointment process of the Fed Chair. In China, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, while the policy remains firm, and the market anticipates more policy support [1][2]. - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to "oscillate at the bottom with a slowly declining central level". The RMB's internal appreciation power is accumulating, and the potential rebound of the US dollar is weaker than the previous cycle [4]. - The expectation of Fed rate cuts in December exceeds 80%, which supports the repair of stock index valuations. However, market sentiment is cautious, and the short - term stock index is expected to run strongly and gradually fill the previous gap [5]. - The short - term trading sentiment of treasury bonds is weak, but the medium - term outlook is optimistic [6]. Commodities Metals - Precious metals are expected to see their price centers rise in the medium - to - long term. Short - term attention should be paid to the December Fed rate - cut expectation and the 60 - day moving average [9][12]. - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 yuan/ton, and downstream enterprises in need of inventory are recommended to buy futures for hedging [13][16]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level; alumina is expected to run weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level; zinc is expected to oscillate; nickel and stainless steel may continue to correct; tin is expected to oscillate at a high level; lithium carbonate futures prices will fluctuate greatly; industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to oscillate weakly; lead is expected to oscillate [16][17][20]. Black Commodities - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range with bottom support [27][29]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before considering short - selling [29][30]. - Coking coal and coke: The short - term downward space of coking coal is limited, and the far - month 05 contract has medium - to - long - term long - allocation potential; for coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward trend [31][32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Energy and Chemicals - LPG is expected to oscillate, with overall fundamentals changing little and slightly weakening [34][35]. - PTA - PX: The aromatics blending - oil logic is weakening. PTA's supply - demand margin has improved, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [37][39]. - MEG - bottle chips: The overall supply - demand situation is still surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies [40][42]. - Methanol: The rebound height of the 01 contract is limited, and it is recommended to hold short - call options and conduct reverse spreads [43][44]. - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level, with supply pressure marginally relieved but weak demand [46][47]. - PE is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [49][50]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price may fall if the US - South Korea pure benzene trading lacks continuity [51]. - Fuel oil: The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil has stabilized and rebounded, but it is still bearish in the future; the cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened, but the overall driving force is still upward [51][53]. - Asphalt: The short - term price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - allocation opportunity of BU2603 [54][55]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate at a low level. Soda ash is mainly cost - priced; glass is affected by cold - repair expectations; caustic soda has supply pressure and weak demand [55][57][58]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp prices are still likely to decline, while the price of offset paper has received some support from paper mills' price increases [58][59]. Others - Logs: The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse spreads [61][62]. - Propylene is expected to maintain a weak pattern [63][64]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - US economic data: September PPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month, core PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month; ADP data showed a weekly average decrease of 13,500 private - sector jobs in the past four weeks; September retail sales increased by 0.2% month - on - month [1][4][5]. - Fed officials' statements and related news: Some Fed officials' statements strengthened the expectation of a December rate cut; there are speculations about the Fed Chair nominee [1][4]. - Geopolitical events: Ukraine agreed to the core terms of the US - proposed plan, and the situation in the Red Sea is related to the shipping market [1]. - Exchange rate: On - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose above 7.09 [3]. Core Logic - Overseas: The US employment data is divided, and the market focuses on November employment data and the Fed Chair appointment. Domestic: The economic fundamentals are cooling, but the policy is firm, and the market expects more policy support [2]. Commodities Metals Precious Metals - Market performance: COMEX gold and silver futures prices fluctuated slightly; SHFE gold and silver futures prices rose [9]. - Rate - cut expectations and fund holdings: The market expects an over 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in December; long - term funds increased their holdings of gold and silver ETFs [10][11]. - Key points of attention: US government data release, Fed economic beige book, and Thanksgiving holiday trading arrangements [11]. Base Metals - Copper: Overnight copper prices in different markets showed different trends; copper inventories in different exchanges changed; the US PPI was in line with expectations, and copper prices were affected by rate - cut expectations [13][14][16]. - Aluminum and related products: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level; alumina is expected to run weakly; cast aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [16][17]. - Zinc: Zinc prices oscillated, with high smelting - end ore - grabbing and reduced TC, and the market is in a state of long - short divergence [17][18]. - Nickel and stainless steel: Nickel and stainless - steel prices corrected, affected by Indonesian policies and cost support; nickel - iron prices continued to decline, and stainless - steel exports had some positive factors [18][20]. - Tin: Tin prices oscillated at a high level, with supply problems and Congo - Kinshasa unrest affecting the market [20][21]. - Lithium carbonate: Futures prices rose, and the market is concerned about supply and demand changes and battery - cell production schedules [22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon: Futures prices showed different trends, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the trading logic potentially shifting to supply - demand fundamentals [23][24]. - Lead: Lead prices continued to decline, with raw - material shortages in the smelting end and potential import increases to balance the market [25][26]. Black Commodities Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market performance: Prices rose slightly, and the increase was accompanied by position reduction, affected by iron ore [27]. - Core logic: The supply and demand of steel improved marginally, with inventory slowly decreasing; iron ore prices oscillated, and the profit of steel enterprises decreased, increasing the risk of negative feedback [27][28]. Iron Ore - Market information: Iron ore prices were strong, with port and overseas inventories changing; the Fed's dovish statements increased the rate - cut probability [29]. - Core logic: Prices oscillated widely, affected by coking coal; the iron - ore market was balanced in the short term, with structural shortages of medium - grade ore [30]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market information: Coking coal prices in Shanxi decreased; the Fed official advocated rate cuts; relevant coal - mine policies were introduced [30]. - Core logic: Coking coal prices continued to decline, with supply increasing and demand weakening in the short term, but there is support in the medium term; for coke, it is not recommended to blindly short [31][32]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Market performance: Prices oscillated. - Core logic: The profitability of steel mills declined, iron - alloy demand is expected to decrease, and they face high - inventory and weak - demand problems [33]. Energy and Chemicals LPG - Market performance: LPG futures prices oscillated, and spot prices changed slightly. - Core logic: Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and the market was affected by crude - oil price fluctuations [34][35]. PTA - PX - Market information: PX supply increased, and PTA had many shutdowns; polyester demand was expected to remain high [37][38]. - Core logic: The aromatics blending - oil logic weakened, and PTA's supply - demand margin improved, with attention paid to restart plans and blending - oil dynamics [37][39]. MEG - Bottle Chips - Market information: MEG inventory was stable, and some devices restarted or shut down; polyester demand was expected to remain high [40][42]. - Core logic: The supply - demand situation was still surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies [40][42]. Methanol - Market performance: Methanol futures prices oscillated around 2000 yuan/ton. - Core logic: The port pressure in December is expected to increase, and the rebound height of the 01 contract is limited [43][44]. PP - Market performance: PP futures prices declined, and spot prices were weak. - Core logic: Supply pressure was marginally relieved, but demand was weak after the "Double Eleven" [46][47]. PE - Market performance: PE futures prices declined, and spot prices changed slightly. - Core logic: The supply - strong and demand - weak situation continued, with the end of the agricultural - film peak season [49][50]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: Futures prices showed different trends, and spot prices changed slightly. - Core logic: The market was affected by the aromatics blending - oil speculation, and the long - term price may fall if the US - South Korea pure benzene trading lacks continuity [51]. Fuel Oil - Market performance: High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel - oil futures prices showed different trends. - Core logic: The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil is bearish; the cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has upward driving force [51][53]. Asphalt - Market performance: Asphalt futures and spot prices changed slightly. - Core logic: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the long - allocation opportunity of BU2603 [54][55]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Market performance: Futures prices of glass, soda ash, and caustic soda showed different trends. - Core logic: Soda ash is cost - priced; glass is affected by cold - repair expectations; caustic soda has supply pressure and weak demand [55][57][58]. Pulp and Paper - Market performance: Pulp and offset - paper futures prices showed different trends. - Core logic: Pulp prices are likely to decline, while offset - paper prices are supported by paper mills' price increases [58][59]. Others Logs - Market performance: Log futures prices declined, and spot prices generally decreased. - Core logic: The 01 contract is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies and consider 01 - 03 reverse spreads [61][62]. Propylene - Market performance: Propylene futures prices declined, and spot prices increased slightly. - Core logic: Propylene supply is loose, and demand is affected by PP and other downstream industries, with an expected weak - oscillation pattern [63][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - The trading focus of the domestic soybean meal futures lies in whether the 53 bushels per acre yield of US soybeans will continue to decline and whether China's purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans will be fulfilled. If the US soybean inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will oscillate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal futures will lack a clear trend in the short term and follow the US market. In the medium term, the shipment schedule of China's US soybean purchases will determine the domestic supply situation [1]. - Rapeseed meal will maintain a weak supply - demand situation in the fourth quarter. With the depletion of rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories, the market is weak due to the expected supply recovery after Australian rapeseed arrives in November. As it is the off - season for aquaculture, demand growth is limited, and inventories are expected to rise. The timing of going long after November depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [1]. - In the short term, the near - month soybean meal market is affected by high inventory levels at ports and oil mills, a slight increase in oil mill crushing volume, and limited downstream purchasing sentiment. The approaching expiration of warehouse receipts is also influencing the market. In the long term, the cost of distant - month soybeans is firm, import profits have slightly recovered, but the supply of distant - month purchases is limited. The easing of Sino - US trade relations is expected to fill the supply gap, and the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to weaken. The downstream demand for rapeseed meal is expected to decline slightly in the fourth quarter, and the potential for a bumper harvest in South America will put pressure on the domestic rapeseed meal market [5][8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The trading focus of the outer - market US soybeans is on the supply - side yield and the demand - side China's purchase. The domestic soybean meal lacks a clear trend in the short term and is affected by China's purchase schedule in the medium term [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is in a weak supply - demand situation in the fourth quarter. The market is weak due to expected supply recovery and limited demand growth. The timing of going long depends on warehouse receipts [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through this range [16]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Consider covered call strategies using options, hold previously sold call options on rapeseed meal 2601, and go short at the upper end of the range for those without positions [16]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: Use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk, expect the M1 - 5 spread to stop falling around 170, and contract the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 at high levels (650, 700) [17]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2800 - 3300, and rapeseed meal between 2250 - 2750 [19]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventories can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits; feed mills with low inventories can buy soybean meal futures to lock in purchase costs; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [19]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: Provide closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB [20]. - **Spreads and Basis**: Include spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as basis data for spot prices [21]. - **Import Costs and Crushing Profits**: Present import costs and crushing profits of soybeans and rapeseed from different origins [22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive News**: The US Secretary of Agriculture expects to announce a farmer assistance program and a China - US soybean purchase agreement in two weeks. The USDA export inspection report shows the export inspection volume of US soybeans, and private US exporters have reported multiple sales of soybeans to China [24][25]. - **Negative News**: The soybean sowing progress in Argentina is delayed, and Brazil's soybean exports in November have increased [26]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream buyers continue to purchase on a need - to - use basis [26]. 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - Monitor domestic weekly inventory data, Brazilian Secex weekly reports, USDA crop growth reports, export inspection reports, export sales reports, and CFTC agricultural product position reports [32]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trends**: The domestic soybean meal futures followed the outer - market trend, falling first and then rising. Rapeseed meal rose first and then fell due to news of Australian rapeseed imports [31]. - **Capital Movements**: The main profitable positions in soybean meal and rapeseed meal are hedging or institutional short positions. Foreign capital has closed long positions, and institutional positions have reduced short positions and increased long positions. The put - call ratio of soybean meal options indicates a bearish sentiment in the market [31]. - **Spread Structure**: The spread between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a seasonal pattern. This week, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal weakened, and the same is true for rapeseed meal [36]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of soybean meal remained stable, while the basis of rapeseed meal declined. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed. The far - month basis is inversely related to the crushing profit, and the basis is expected to decline [41]. - **Foreign Market** - **Foreign Trends**: This week, the outer - market US soybeans rebounded due to Sino - US negotiations and potential soybean purchases, but the increase was limited by EUDR and the US soybean oil government restructuring [52]. - **Capital Positions**: The net managed positions in CBOT soybeans have returned above the zero line, indicating a short - term return of long - only funds [58]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The crushing profit in the US soybean production area has increased due to the decline in soybean prices and the rise in soybean oil and soybean meal prices. The profit in the Brazilian production area has also increased, while the profit in the Argentine production area has weakened. The domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has remained stable due to the rise in rapeseed prices [64]. 4.2 Import - Export Crushing Profit Tracking - Despite the recent rebound in US soybeans, crushing profits have not improved effectively. The rebound in US soybean prices has offset the decline in the premium of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, and it is difficult to obtain profitable commercial purchases. The acceleration of non - commercial purchases of distant - month US soybeans may lead to supply pressure, and the pricing method based on cost or profit may be temporarily invalid [68]. - Although rapeseed imports show a crushing profit, the purchase of rapeseed is expected to remain cautious due to import margin requirements [69]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - **US**: The estimated US soybean production in November is 4.3 billion bushels, a decrease of 48 million bushels from the September forecast, mainly due to a decline in yield. Exports are expected to decrease by 50 million bushels, while crushing volume remains unchanged. The ending inventory is expected to decline slightly, and the average farm price is expected to increase by $0.50 per bushel to $10.50 [72][73]. - **Global**: In 2025/26, the global soybean supply - demand forecast shows a decline in beginning stocks and production, a decrease in crushing volume, a slight increase in exports, and a decline in ending stocks. The decrease in ending stocks in Argentina, Brazil, the US, the EU, Ukraine, and India is partially offset by the increase in China's inventory [75][76]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projection - The import volume of soybeans is expected to decline seasonally in the second half of the fourth quarter, mainly due to the loss of crushing profits and the difficulty of fully purchasing US soybeans through commercial channels. Rapeseed imports will remain at a low level [77]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projection - Domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to remain high due to the carry - over inventory from the third quarter and the fourth - quarter imports. However, the consumption of soybean meal is expected to have limited growth after the previous high - level stocking [79]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projection - Domestic soybean inventories are at a seasonal high but are expected to decline in the fourth quarter and stabilize and rebound in the first quarter of next year. The inventory of soybean meal is also expected to decline with the reduction of raw material inventory and crushing volume and remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [81].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liao Chenyue [1] - Investment Advisory License Number: Z0022951 [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Market Review - The stock index showed strong performance today. The CSI 300 Index closed up 0.95%. [2] - The trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 84.374 billion yuan. [2] - Among stock index futures, IC rose with increasing volume, while the rest rose with decreasing volume. [2] Group 3: Important Information - Chinese President had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing that "cooperation benefits both, while confrontation hurts both" and highlighting the importance of Taiwan's return to China in the post - war international order. The two leaders also discussed the Ukraine crisis. [3] - Waller, a Fed governor and a leading candidate for Fed Chair, is mainly worried about the labor market and advocates a rate cut in December. Daly, the former San Francisco Fed President who usually followed Powell, also supports a December rate cut due to concerns about a sudden deterioration in the labor market. [3] - Japan plans to deploy offensive weapons on the south - western islands near Taiwan. China's Foreign Ministry responded that this move is extremely dangerous and requires high - level vigilance. [3] Group 4: Core View - Fed officials' dovish remarks last night increased the probability of a December rate cut to over 80%, supporting the repair of the stock index valuation. The positive signals from the China - US call also restored market risk appetite, leading to a higher - opening and higher - closing stock index today. [4] - However, the Sino - Japanese issue remains unresolved. Although the trading volume of the two markets increased slightly, it was still below 2 trillion yuan, and the collective deepening of the discount of stock index futures indicates cautious market sentiment. [4] - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong driven by the expectation of loose liquidity and gradually fill the previous gap. Future trends depend on external changes. If Sino - Japanese relations ease and the US PCE price index meets or is lower than market expectations, the stock index may continue to strengthen; otherwise, it is expected to continue to fluctuate after a phased rebound. [4] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see. [4] Group 6: Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.66 | 0.35 | 0.85 | 0.85 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 10.8933 | 4.3866 | 13.4717 | 21.3192 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | - 0.4758 | - 0.0889 | 0.2797 | - 1.0643 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.4574 | 8.8482 | 25.8131 | 36.7936 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | - 0.3977 | - 0.0977 | 0.5282 | - 0.9256 | [4] Group 7: Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.87 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.53 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 4.33 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1812.147 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | 84.374 | [6]

南华期货油脂产业周报 ——上行驱动不足，油脂维持偏弱震荡 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月25日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期油脂市场交易的重点来自于全球油脂的供需平衡问题，核心驱动主要在外盘市场，当前油脂的核心 矛盾主要为以下几点： 1、棕榈油产地库存压力能否被增长的需求所消化。11月高频数据显示马棕继续增产，产地供应压力未减，减 产季的到来似乎也已经遥遥无期。而印尼端B50计划不确定性仍存，需进一步政策指引，产地整体来看报价上 行动力不足。 2、美国生物柴油政策依然不明朗，EPA原定11月公布的最终确定美国生物燃料义务量目前延期，且当前美国 已经解散清洁能源部门，或更偏向于化石燃料的使用，政策提振作用存疑。中美贸易和谈进度目前较乐观提 振美豆，支撑豆油相对偏强，但美豆恢复购买后国内豆油供应压力或增加，成本支撑逻辑走完后或转化为供 应压力现实，且美豆出口好转，美国政府对生物燃料政策的力度有减弱可能，等待最终结果；但中加和谈目 前并不像中美和谈乐观，菜系后市供 ...

国债期货日报 2025/11/25 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策态度 盘面点评： 周二期债主力合约除TS外全线收跌，日线上T、TF、TS维持震荡态势，TL延续跌势。资金面宽松，DR001在 1.32%附近。公开市场逆回购3021亿，续作MLF 10000亿，净回笼54亿。 重要资讯： 1.国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话，强调台湾回归中国是战后国际秩序重要组成部分。特朗普表示， 中国当年为二战胜利发挥了重要作用，美方理解台湾问题对于中国的重要性。 2.国新办将于周四上午10时举行国务院政策例行吹风会，请工业和信息化部副部长谢远生和国家发展改革 委、商务部、文化和旅游部、市场监管总局有关负责人介绍增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施 有关情况。 行情研判： 今日A股大幅反弹，债市受到一定影响。公开市场开展1万亿MLF，超额续作1000亿，中长期流动性投放较为 稳定，政策信号有限。短期市场缺乏驱动因素，交易情绪疲弱，TL已回补下方缺口，不排除T亦有回补缺口的 可能，多单可逢低布局。中期维持乐观，中期多单继续持有。 | | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the bottom but driven by inventory at the top. It is expected that the finished steel products will fluctuate within a range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2900 - 3200, and that of hot-rolled coils between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel products and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the potential negative feedback risk caused by the decline in the profitability rate of steel enterprises [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The 01 contract monthly price range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.25% and a volatility percentile of 14.7%. For hot-rolled coils, it is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 9.34% and a volatility percentile of 3.80% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling steel prices, to prevent inventory - related losses, enterprises can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. For RB2601 and HC2601, the selling ratio is 30%, with recommended entry intervals of 3200 - 3250 and 3350 - 3400 respectively. Selling call options can reduce capital costs, and if steel prices rise, the spot selling price can be locked. For RB2601C3400, the selling ratio is 20%, with a recommended entry interval of 50 - 55 [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to orders, they can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. For RB2601 and HC2601, the buying ratio is 30%, with recommended entry intervals of 2950 - 3000 and 3100 - 3150 respectively. Selling put options can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs, and if rebar prices fall, the spot purchase price can be locked. For RB2601P2900, the selling ratio is 20%, with a recommended entry interval of 35 - 45 [3]. 3.3 Market Review - Today, the prices of finished steel products continued to rise slightly, showing a pattern of rising with decreasing positions. Recently, the shortage of medium - grade iron ore resources has led to a tight supply of deliverable resources, making iron ore relatively strong and driving up the prices of finished steel products. However, the upward movement of iron ore is constrained by the decline in hot metal production and high port inventories, which may affect the price increase of finished steel products [3]. 3.4 Core Logic - This week, both the supply and demand of steel increased, and the inventory continued to be slowly destocked. The supply - demand balance is gradually improving. Hot - rolled coils have started to be slowly destocked, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, with over - seasonal inventory accumulation. The plate end is still in a situation of high inventory and high production, and destocking may need to rely on production cuts. Plate exports remain high, supporting good export demand, but domestic demand is gradually weakening month - on - month. Hot metal production decreased month - on - month this week, and it is expected to continue the slow production - cut trend according to seasonal patterns and profit decline. This week, the profitability rate of steel enterprises continued to decline to 37.66%, and the risk of negative feedback is gradually increasing. In terms of cost, the arrival volume of iron ore last week decreased significantly month - on - month, and the port inventory accumulation slowed down and turned to destocking. However, with the recovery of iron ore shipments to a high level and the decline in hot metal production last week, it is expected that the port inventory of iron ore may turn back to the accumulation trend. Recently, the shortage of medium - grade iron ore resources has led to a tight supply of deliverable resources, making iron ore relatively strong, but it is constrained by hot metal production cuts and high port inventories at the top and supported by the expectation of winter storage replenishment at the bottom, resulting in a range - bound price. The previous negative factors for rebar are gradually being realized and cleared, but there is no obvious increase in downstream demand. Although blast furnace profits are in the red, profits are significantly improving during the slow destocking of steel, and the bottom support for steel prices is strong [4][5]. 3.5 Interpretation of Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.5.1 Bullish Factors - The inventory of iron ore ports continued to accumulate but at a slower pace, and it turned to destocking last week. The high valuation of iron ore has recently declined, and it is supported by the expectation of winter storage replenishment. The supply - demand balance of finished steel products is gradually improving. The decline in coking coal prices has benefited finished steel products, and the profits of finished steel products are slowly recovering [7]. 3.5.2 Bearish Factors - The basis of hot - rolled coils is gradually weakening. The steel market fails to meet expectations during the peak season, the profitability rate of steel mills has declined significantly, and the pressure of negative feedback is gradually increasing. The arrival volume of iron ore has returned to a high level, and the port inventory of iron ore may turn back to the accumulation trend. The plate end is still in a situation of high inventory and high production, with production at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, and there is no driving force on the consumption side. The inventory has accumulated over - seasonally and is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years [7]. 3.6 Price Data 3.6.1 Futures Prices - On November 25, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3106, up 17 from the previous day and 16 from the previous week; the closing price of the rebar 05 contract was 3125, up 7 from the previous day and down 14 from the previous week; the closing price of the rebar 10 contract was 3172, up 5 from the previous day and down 8 from the previous week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3309, up 14 from the previous day and 23 from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 05 contract was 3299, up 7 from the previous day and 4 from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 10 contract was 3307, up 7 from the previous day and down 7 from the previous week [8]. 3.6.2 Spot Prices - On November 25, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3296, up 13 from the previous day and 17 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3250, up 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Beijing was 3230, unchanged from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Hangzhou was 3290, up 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3220, up 10 from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3300, up 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3330, up 20 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Shenyang was 3220, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [8]. 3.6.3 Overseas Data of Hot - Rolled Coils - On November 25, 2025, the FOB export price of hot - rolled coils in China was 450, up 5 from November 18; the FOB export price in Japan was 490, down 5; the FOB export price in India was 485, down 5; the FOB export price in Turkey was 520, down 20; the FOB export price in the CIS was 455, down 15. The CFR import price of hot - rolled coils in Southeast Asia was 462, up 4; the CFR import price in the Middle East was 490, down 5; the CFR import price in the EU was 580, down 5; the CFR import price in India was 490, down 5 [9]. 3.6.4 Month - to - Month Spreads - On November 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 month - to - month spread of rebar was - 19, up 10 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week; the 05 - 10 month - to - month spread was - 47, up 2 from the previous day and down 6 from the previous week; the 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was 66, down 12 from the previous day and 24 from the previous week. The 01 - 05 month - to - month spread of hot - rolled coils was 10, up 19 from the previous day and 19 from the previous week; the 05 - 10 month - to - month spread was - 8, up 11 from the previous day and 11 from the previous week; the 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was - 2, down 7 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week [9]. 3.6.5 Rebar - Coil Spreads - On November 25, 2025, the 01 rebar - coil spread was 203, down 3 from the previous day and 7 from the previous week; the 05 rebar - coil spread was 174, unchanged from the previous day and up 18 from the previous week; the 10 rebar - coil spread was 135, up 2 from the previous day and 1 from the previous week. The spot rebar - coil spread in Shanghai was 50, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the spot rebar - coil spread in Beijing was 120, up 20 from the previous day and the previous week; the spot rebar - coil spread in Shenyang was 30, down 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [9].

Overall Investment Ratings No overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate may continue to show a pattern of "oscillating to form a bottom with a slowly declining central value." Domestic pro - growth policies are entering the implementation phase at the end of the year, and seasonal foreign exchange settlement demand is rising, increasing the intrinsic appreciation power of the RMB. However, short - term one - sided rapid appreciation is unlikely. The upside potential of the US dollar is weaker than in the previous cycle [2]. - For various commodities: - Precious metals: In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, focus on the Fed's December interest rate cut expectations and the 60 - day moving average. Gold resistance is at 4250, support at 4000, and strong support at 3900. Silver resistance is at 52.5, support at 49, and strong support at 47 [12]. - Copper: The copper market lacks a driving force and is expected to remain volatile. The price faces resistance at 86500 - 86600 and is accepted around 86000 [14]. - Aluminum industry chain: For electrolytic aluminum, short - term macro factors are positive, and focus on the probability of interest rate cuts. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak. For cast aluminum alloy, it has strong follow - up to aluminum prices, and pay attention to the price difference between alloy and aluminum [16]. - Zinc: It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel: They had a short - term correction. Be cautious about Indonesian policy stimuli. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger than the upside, and pay attention to long - term export expectations for stainless steel [18][19]. - Tin: It is affected by news and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [20]. - Lead: There is still short - selling pressure, but the downside space is limited [20]. - Steel products: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coils between 3100 - 3400. Iron ore is expected to be relatively strong. Coking coal and coke: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal is strengthening. Ferroalloys are expected to be weak with oscillations [21][22][27]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is in a "weak recovery, bearish - dominated" pattern. LPG is expected to oscillate. PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation fades, and there are support levels for operation. MEG - bottle chips can consider selling call options on rebounds. Methanol's 01 contract has limited upside. PP's downside space is limited. PE is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and a put - option strategy can be considered. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be weak with oscillations. Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin may decline in the future, while low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin is weakening. Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and pay attention to winter storage policies. Rubber and 20 - grade rubber are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Urea is expected to continue to oscillate. For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, supply disturbances are increasing [31][35][38][41][44][45][46][49][52]. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, US employment data is divided, and Fed officials' statements increase the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, but policy is firm, and the market expects more policies. The release of the US Q3 GDP forecast is postponed, and the PCE price index will be released on December 5 [1]. - **Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB/USD closed at 7.1056, up 47 points, and the mid - price was 7.0847, up 28 points. The USD/CNY spot rate may "oscillate to form a bottom with a slowly declining central value" [1][2]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index was mixed. The decline in trading volume was 2378.87 billion yuan. External disturbances are both positive and negative, and the stock index is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rose slightly, and the capital was loose. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and the mid - term has room for an increase. It is recommended to hold mid - term long positions [4][5]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The SCFIS was 1639.37, up 20%. The futures market was slightly down. The market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to be weak with oscillations in the short - term. Traders can choose different strategies according to their types [5][6][8]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: On Monday, precious metal prices rose due to an over - 80% expectation of a December interest rate cut. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to rise, and short - term attention should be paid to the interest rate cut expectation and technical indicators [10][12]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price was mixed in different markets. The market lacks a driving force and is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to inventory changes and downstream demand [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has support at the bottom [15][16]. - **Zinc**: It fluctuated in a narrow range. The reduction in smelting TC in November may lead to production cuts, and the inventory is changing [17]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They had a short - term correction. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and long - term export expectations [17][18][19]. - **Tin**: It was affected by news from the Congo and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [20]. - **Lead**: There is still short - selling pressure, but the downside space is limited due to raw material shortages and cost support [20]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The demand and supply of steel products increased this week, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The cost of raw materials provides support, but the inventory suppresses the upside. They are expected to oscillate in a range [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: It is relatively strong. The price is affected by coking coal and its own fundamentals. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before short - selling [22][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal's 1 - 5 spread is strengthening. The supply of coking coal is marginally loose, and the demand is weak in the short - term, but it has support in the mid - term [24][26]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are expected to be weak with oscillations due to high inventory and weak demand, but the supply - side reduction limits the downside space [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It rebounded due to the increasing expectation of an interest rate cut. It is in a "weak recovery, bearish - dominated" pattern, and pay attention to OPEC + production, winter demand, and the Russia - Ukraine situation [30][31]. - **LPG**: It is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the changes in supply, demand, and inventory [31]. - **PX - PTA**: The supply of PX is expected to be high in Q4. PTA's supply and demand have improved marginally. Pay attention to maintenance plans and actual dynamics of blending oil [32][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply and demand are in an oversupply situation in the long - term. Consider selling call options on rebounds [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract has limited upside. The port pressure may increase in December, and the inland is relatively strong [37][38]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is slightly relieved, and the demand growth has slowed down. The downside space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [40][41]. - **PE**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weakening. It is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [43][44]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are expected to be weak with oscillations. The Asian pure benzene surplus situation may improve, but the domestic fundamentals are still weak [45]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin may decline in the future, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin is weakening [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Pay attention to winter storage policies, and there may be a long - position opportunity for BU2603 [49][50]. - **Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber**: They are expected to have wide - range oscillations due to inventory, demand, and weather factors [52]. - **Urea**: It is expected to continue to oscillate. High supply is under pressure, but export policies and coal prices provide support [53]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Supply disturbances are increasing. Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, glass is affected by cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda's demand is affected by downstream industries [53][54][56].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current focus of the soybean meal futures trading is on the potential reduction of the 53 bushels per acre yield of US soybeans on the supply - side and whether China's purchase of 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans can be realized on the demand - side. If the US soybean inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will oscillate around the cost line, and domestic soybean meal will lack a unilateral driving force and follow the US market in the short term. The shipping schedule of China's US soybean purchases will determine the domestic supply [4]. - Rapeseed meal will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There is an expectation of supply recovery due to Sino - Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseeds after November, while demand growth is limited, so inventory is expected to rise. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.0%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Futures Price and Spread - **Futures Price**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3011 with no change; soybean meal 05 is 2815 with no change; soybean meal 09 is 2924 with a 9 - point increase (0.31%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2446 with a 15 - point increase (0.62%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2385 with no change; rapeseed meal 09 is 2449 with a 14 - point increase (0.57%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1121.25 with no change; the offshore RMB is 7.113 with no change [7][10]. - **Spread**: The spread of M01 - 05 is 196 with a 13 - point decrease; M05 - 09 is - 109 with a 3 - point increase; M09 - 01 is - 87 with a 10 - point increase; RM01 - 05 is 61 with a 3 - point decrease; RM05 - 09 is - 64 with a 4 - point increase; RM09 - 01 is 3 with a 1 - point decrease. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3000 with no change, and the basis is - 11 with a 1 - point increase. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2580 with no change, and the basis is 131 with a 41 - point increase. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 420 with no change, and the futures spread is 565 with a 16 - point decrease [11]. 3.3 Import Cost and Profit - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4763.7174 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15.3404 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 0.0057. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3825.21 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.06 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 229.79 yuan/ton. The cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 774.5882 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 2.2853 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 7.7035 [12]. - The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 889.0024 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15.3404 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 10.4113. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 216.0502 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 48.7548. The import profit of Canadian rapeseeds on the futures market is 749 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 57 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 1. The import profit of Canadian rapeseeds in the spot market is 1002 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 48 yuan/ton and no weekly change [12]. 3.4 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Brazilian export premiums support the price of far - month contracts from the cost side; the pricing oscillation range of the outer - market balance sheet moves up; the pressure on near - month contracts is alleviated during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and soybean meal is at a seasonal inventory high. Brazilian planting is going smoothly, and the expected high yield in South America suppresses the far - month contract price. The supply gap in the far - month is filled under the background of Sino - US trade talks and procurement [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy stance, maintaining the view that there is still room for growth in the medium term, and advises to continue holding medium - term long positions [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Sections 3.1. Disk Review - On Monday, bond futures rose in the morning session and fluctuated in the afternoon, with all varieties closing higher. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32% on Friday. There were 338.7 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases and a 200 - billion - yuan treasury cash fixed - deposit tender, resulting in a net injection of 255.7 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Important News - Five out of the 12 Fed officials with voting rights this year have indicated a preference to keep interest rates unchanged next month [2]. - Trump advisor Hassett said that the new Fed leadership may cut interest rates and that the appointment of the Fed chair may be decided around the new year [2]. - Japan announced the deployment of missiles in a sensitive area, only 110 kilometers from Taiwan, China [2]. 3.3. Market Outlook - The A - share market rebounded on low volume today, hardly affecting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions seem to have intensified, but it is not the main influencing factor for the bond market at present. There is no obvious short - term market driver. This week, attention should be paid to whether MLF roll - overs and PMI data will provide trading impetus [3]. 3.4. Daily Treasury Futures Data | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 24 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.416 | 102.448 | - 0.032 | | TF2512 | 105.885 | 105.855 | 0.03 | | T2512 | 108.47 | 108.44 | 0.03 | | TL2512 | 115.72 | 115.59 | 0.13 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0034 | - 0.0063 | 0.0097 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.02 | 0.0033 | 0.0167 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0793 | 0.0802 | - 0.0009 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1394 | 0.1601 | - 0.0207 | | TS Contract Position (Lots) | 71,468 | 73,816 | - 2,348 | | TF Contract Position (Lots) | 160,107 | 153,244 | 6,863 | | T Contract Position (Lots) | 284,471 | 279,585 | 4,886 | | TL Contract Position (Lots) | 175,392 | 176,275 | - 883 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 35,982 | 29,272 | 6,710 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 46,495 | 64,448 | - 17,953 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 79,246 | 103,001 | - 23,755 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 64,907 | 97,822 | - 32,915 | [4]

廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 股指期货日报 2025年11月24日 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 降息预期升温带动股指高开，中小盘超调有所修复 市场回顾 今日股指涨跌不一，大盘股指收跌，中小盘股指收涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落2378.87亿元。期指方 面，IF、IH缩量下跌，IC、IM放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 美联储"三把手"放鸽，称"近期"仍存在降息空间，市场预期12月降息概率盘中突破70%。威廉姆斯在 演讲中表示，随着劳动力市场降温，就业面临的下行风险已经增加，而通胀面临的上行风险有所减轻。他认 为货币政策目前处于温和紧缩状态，但限制性程度低于近期行动之前的水平。 2.日媒称中方拒绝明年1月中日韩首脑会谈，外交部回应表示中日韩三方并没有就第十次中日韩领导人会议的 会期达成共识。 核心观点 周末美联储三把手放鸽，强调就业下行风险，提振市场降息预期，今日股指集体高开。不过由于当前中日紧 张关系尚未缓和，叠加资金止盈意愿增强，股指高开后随即回落转跌。午后开盘集体拉升，中小盘股指翻 红，表现较强，中日风波影响下军工板块领涨，两市成交额再度缩量至1.7万亿元左右。我们认为今日 ...