股指期货日报 2025年10月21日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 上行持续性有待观望 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 市场回顾 今日股指走势上行，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨1.53%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨1362.89亿元。 期指各品种均放量上涨。 重要资讯 核心观点 今日股市走势偏强，主要原因为股市影响因素有利空缓和，利多可期之势。一方面中美贸易谈判推进，叠加 前期美方官员讲话措辞态度转变，避险情绪有所缓和；另一方面，二十届四中全会召开之后，市场对于政策 面引导预期偏积极。除此之外，日韩股市创新高以及稳股市的一些信息释放，带动市场乐观情绪有所升温。 不过，今日虽量能有所扩张，但仍在两万亿下方，且信息层面的不确定性仍在，尽管今日股市运行偏强，但 整体并未脱离前期震荡中枢，上行持续性预计仍有待进一步利好释放带动。短期建议以持仓观望为主，等待 进一步重磅信息揭晓。 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | 1.63 | 1.19 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently following the broader market in a volatile pattern, with no significant changes in the fundamentals recently. There are expectations of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs repeatedly adjusts risk preferences [3]. - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia has announced regulations for the 2026 quota application. The overall quota in 2025 is somewhat excessive, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews [3]. - The new energy sector is entering the peak season, with high downstream procurement demand. The current quotes have been rising for several consecutive weeks, the market circulation is tight, inventories are low, and there are still inquiries, which may remain strong [3]. - The price of ferronickel has insufficient upward momentum, and the overall center of gravity has significantly declined. It may operate weakly under the pressure of stainless - steel profits and weak demand. If ferronickel loses its support, the downward space for the downstream may expand [3]. - The spot trading of stainless steel has improved slightly, leading to a small rebound in the futures market. However, the sentiment of a lackluster peak season is strong. Currently, stainless steel has a large amount of inventory accumulation, and the upward momentum is insufficient compared with the previous continuous destocking cycle. The center of gravity of stainless steel may move down slightly, but export is favorable due to WTO rulings and certification exemptions [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel (Shanghai Futures Exchange)**: The price range is predicted to be 11,800 - 12,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.79% and a historical percentile of 5.9% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month NI contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month SS contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3]. Market Data Nickel - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,180 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; the Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 120,860 yuan/ton, down 0.39%; the Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 121,340 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the LME nickel 3M contract is 15,230 US dollars/ton, down 0.34% [6]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 60,391 lots, down 12.28%; the open interest is 50,388 lots, down 14.10% [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 27,026 tons, up 0.59% [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is - 240 yuan/ton, down 52.0% [6]. Stainless Steel - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,665 yuan/ton, up 1%; the stainless - steel continuous - one contract is 12,595 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the stainless - steel continuous - two contract is 12,695 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the stainless - steel continuous - three contract is 12,780 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 126,078 lots, up 1.04%; the open interest is 188,332 lots, down 4.98% [7]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 74,497 tons, down 0.16% [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is 775 yuan/ton, up 4.73% [7]. Inventory Data - **Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel**: 47,708 tons, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - **LME Nickel Inventory**: 250,476 tons, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - **Stainless - Steel Social Inventory**: 952.6 tons, an increase of 47 tons [7]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: 29,062 tons, a decrease of 174 tons [7]. Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [6]. - The Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [6]. - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter [6]. - The WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal [5][6]. - The exemption of the Indian BIS certification is extended to the end of the year [5][6]. Negative Factors - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6]. - The center of gravity of ferronickel has moved down, and the bottom support has loosened [6]. - Stainless steel has re - entered the inventory accumulation stage [6]. - The stainless - steel market shows a lackluster peak season, and the demand recovery is less than expected [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the log market is upward, but the monthly spread continues to weaken. The 01 contract is trading based on expectations related to special port charges for log vessels. If the charges are implemented, it may lead to potential price increases or supply reductions. The monthly spread between 11 - 01 contracts has reached a new low and may continue to weaken. [1][6][8] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830 yuan/m³, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4%. [2] Hedging Strategies - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2511) at 820 - 830 yuan/m³ with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2511) at 780 - 800 yuan/m³ with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. [2] Market Conditions - **Futures**: lg2511 closed at 803 (+1), and lg2601 closed at 838 (+3.5) with a position of 17,000 lots. - **Spot**: The spot price remained unchanged. - **Valuation**: The warehouse receipt cost is about 831 yuan/m³ in the Yangtze River Delta and 836 yuan/m³ in Shandong. - **Inventory**: As of October 10th, the national inventory was 2.99 million m³ (+130,000). [5][6] Core Contradiction - The 01 contract is trading on expectations based on special port charges for log vessels. If implemented, it may lead to higher CFR quotes or supply reductions. However, the policy's stability is uncertain, and the delivery logic may lead to a discounted delivery state. [6] Monthly Spread Analysis - The monthly spread between 11 - 01 contracts closed at - 34.5, a new low. It may continue to weaken as it may not be considered absolutely safe. [8] Strategies - Implement a covered call strategy for the 01 contract. Establish additional short positions of 1/3 of lg2601c850 and 2/3 of lg2601C875 corresponding to the total long positions. Also, set dynamic stop - profit orders for long positions in the 01 contract. [9] Data Overview - **Supply**: Radiation pine imports in August 2025 were 1.3 million m³ (- 100,000 m³ compared to the previous period, - 3.7% year - on - year). - **Inventory**: As of October 17th, the national port inventory was 2.92 million m³ (- 70,000 m³ compared to the previous period, + 22.2% year - on - year), with 1.846 million m³ in Shandong ports (- 46,000 m³ compared to the previous period, + 78.7% year - on - year) and 887,310 m³ in Jiangsu ports (+ 6,410 m³ compared to the previous period, - 9.5% year - on - year). The daily average outbound volume from log ports was 63,200 m³ (+ 5,900 m³ compared to the previous period, - 9.5% year - on - year). - **Demand**: The daily average outbound volume in Shandong was 34,200 m³ (- 200 m³ compared to the previous period, - 5.5% year - on - year), and in Jiangsu was 24,200 m³ (+ 6,300 m³ compared to the previous period, - 8.3% year - on - year). - **Profit**: The import profit of radiation pine on October 24th was - 64 yuan/m³, and that of spruce was - 118 yuan/m³ (- 3 yuan/m³ compared to the previous period). [11] Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Seasonal factors in New Zealand increase the proportion of integrated timber and decrease the proportion of sawn timber. Potential increases in import costs due to shipping surcharges. Relatively low inventory levels. - **Negative factors**: The emergence of domestic deliverable log products. Reduced willingness of buyers to accept deliverable products from non - mainstream delivery warehouses. [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply - The end of the low - electricity - price period in Southwest China during the wet season will slow down and potentially reduce the growth rate of ore - heating furnace start - up rates. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also below expectations. Overall, the overall start - up rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of further inventory accumulation will ease, reducing supply - side pressure [4]. - Demand - The organic silicon industry's start - up rate is slowing, with limited actual demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the recycled aluminum alloy sector remains stable and is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The polysilicon sector is expected to see a steady increase in demand for industrial silicon in the next two months as enterprise profit conditions improve and production schedules increase in October [4]. - Market Outlook - The supply - side incremental space is expected to narrow. Key signals to watch are whether the supply - side start - up rate enters a downward channel and whether the downstream polysilicon demand improves. If both conditions are met, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point. The details and implementation of polysilicon industry integration measures are crucial variables [4][6]. Polysilicon - Core Influencing Factors - The core factors determining the polysilicon futures price are the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform in October, the pressure of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November, the stability and increase of component bid - winning prices on the demand side, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected power prices [9]. - Market Outlook - The short - term trading focus is on whether the storage platform will be established in October, and then it will shift to the expectation game of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November. The high volatility of polysilicon futures implies high risks, and investors are advised to be cautious [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8505 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 60 yuan (- 0.70%) and a weekly decrease of 15 yuan (- 0.18%). The trading volume is 188,642 lots, down 1,690 lots (- 0.89%) daily and 98,635 lots (- 34.33%) weekly. The open interest is 107,518 lots, down 6,718 lots (- 5.88%) daily and 55,156 lots (- 33.91%) weekly [12][13]. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 100 yuan (- 1.13%) weekly. The price of 553 in Xinjiang is also 8750 yuan/ton, with the same daily and weekly changes. The prices of different grades and regions show various trends, and the price of downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, etc., also have corresponding changes [21]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 48,851 lots, down 452 lots (- 0.79%) compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different delivery warehouses have different changes, such as a 0.3 - million - ton decrease in the Kunming delivery warehouse (weekly) [35]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50,715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 375 yuan (0.74%) and a weekly increase of 725 yuan (1.45%). The trading volume is 121,870 lots, down 28,902 lots (- 19.17%) daily and 175,833 lots (- 59.06%) weekly. The open interest is 52,237 lots, down 4,569 lots (- 8.04%) daily and 29,151 lots (- 35.82%) weekly [36]. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon, including N - type re - feeding material, N - type dense material, etc., shows different degrees of increase. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also have corresponding changes [45]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 1975 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan (- 15.96%) daily and 685 yuan (- 25.75%) weekly. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9290 lots, an increase of 140 lots compared to the previous day [55].

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/10/21 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | 单位 | 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-14 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 吨 | 151396 | 151396 | 290165 | 0 | -138769 | | 热卷 | 吨 | 143657 | 146032 | 59778 | -2375 | 83879 | | 铁矿石 | 手 | 1000 | 1200 | 800 | -200 | 200 | | 焦煤 | 手 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 0 | 0 | | 焦炭 | 手 | 2050 | 2050 | 2190 | 0 | -140 | | 硅铁 | 张 | 11400 | 12103 | 13665 | -703 | -2265 | | 硅锰 | 张 | 46638 | 47636 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 21, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - On Monday, the corn futures market generally closed higher, with far - month contracts leading the rise. The futures price started to recover from the September decline, showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern. The corn 01 - 05 spread broke through - 100 yuan/ton, hitting a record low, indicating an optimistic market expectation for the 2026 corn price, which may limit the downside price space [2]. - In the spot market, although the current supply pressure still exists, after more than half a month of price decline, the new - season pressure has been released. With the purchase by some Sinograin depots, the spot price has stabilized, suggesting that the first - round price shock is over. The futures price may enter a bottom - grinding stage, and whether it will have a second bottom - probing depends on the corn market performance in the second half of October. The period from late October to early November may confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to focus on whether the 2601 contract can hold the 2100 - yuan level [2]. - Corn starch mainly followed the corn price rebound, showing no independent strength and still weaker than the raw - material side [2]. - On Monday, CBOT corn futures rose for the fifth consecutive trading day but with a small increase, mainly following the soybean price increase, and the high - yield pressure restricted the upward trend [2]. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - **Spot Market**: In the corn spot market, prices in some regions increased, such as in Jinzhou Port (up 30 yuan to 2180 yuan), Harbin (up 20 yuan to 2000 yuan). In the corn starch spot market, the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan to 2750 yuan [4]. - **Futures Market**: Corn futures prices generally rose, with the corn 07 contract having the largest increase of 1.56% (up 35 yuan to 2272 yuan). Corn starch futures prices also increased, with the corn starch 03 contract rising by 1.16% (up 28 yuan to 2435 yuan) [4]. - **CBOT Market**: CBOT corn futures rose for five consecutive days, with the main - continuous contract price at 424, up 1 (0.24%). The main - continuous contracts of CBOT soybeans and wheat also increased [27]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some Sinograin depots are conducting supportive purchases and may increase the number of purchasing depots; the strong rebound of far - month futures contracts boosts market confidence; in September 2025, China's imports of corn and corn flour were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%, and from January to September 2025, the cumulative imports were 930,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%; the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration held a meeting to promote autumn - grain purchase and production - sales connection, emphasizing measures to maintain reasonable grain prices and protect farmers' interests [2][3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity adjustment, which may affect the long - term feed demand for corn; the release of new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the spot price remains under pressure [3]. Other Information - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered corn warehouse receipts increased significantly by 12,615 to 49,324 [2]. - **Import Price and Profit**: The landed duty - paid price of US Gulf corn was 2119.1 yuan, up 6.07 (0.29%), with an import profit of 190.9 yuan; the landed duty - paid price of US West corn was 1965.97 yuan, up 0.95 (0.05%), with an import profit of 344.03 yuan [27].

Report Overview - Report Title: Iron "Iron Ore Risk Management Report" released on October 20, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current iron ore market is operating weakly under the dual pressure of macro - sentiment and fundamentals. Sino - US trade friction has curbed market risk appetite, and the fundamentals show a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand". Although the short - term price valuation is low due to the widening basis, the upward drive is insufficient. The future key variables lie in policy signals [3]. Summary by Directory Price Forecast and Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The price forecast range for the iron ore 11 - contract in October is 760 - 820, with the current at - the - money option IV at 19.80% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For those with current iron ore inventory worried about price drops, strategies include directly short - selling iron ore futures (I2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 800 - 810 and selling call options (I2511 - C - 850) with a 30% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures (I2511) with a 30% hedging ratio at an entry range of 750 - 760 and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 790) with a 40% ratio by selling at high prices [2]. Core Contradictions - **Macro - level**: Sino - US trade friction has led to a significant decline in market risk preference, causing a collective correction in industrial product prices [3]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: Overseas shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventories show super - seasonal accumulation. The inventory of 45 ports in the country has increased to around 143 million tons, and the supply remains loose [3]. - **Demand**: Although the molten iron output is still above 2.4 million tons per day, steel mill profits have shrunk to the break - even point. Weak finished product sales and inventory pressure are transmitted to the raw material end, suppressing iron ore procurement willingness [3]. Price Data - **Futures Closing Prices**: On October 21, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 767, 747.5, and 727.5 respectively, with no daily change and weekly decreases of 15, 13.5, and 12 respectively [5]. - **Basis**: The 01, 05, and 09 bases on October 21, 2025, were 11, 30.5, and 50.5 respectively, with daily increases of 4, 2.5, and 1 respectively and weekly increases of 19.5, 15.5, and 13.5 respectively [5][7]. - **Spot Prices**: On October 21, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special fines were 777, 901, and 700 respectively, with daily changes of - 1, 0, and - 5 respectively and weekly decreases of 19, 25, and 20 respectively [7]. - **Platts Index**: On October 17, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 94.75, 105.3, and 118.9 respectively, with daily decreases of 0.15, 0.65, and 0.65 respectively and weekly decreases of 1.1, 2.1, and 2.4 respectively [8]. Fundamental Data - **Production and Consumption**: The average daily molten iron output on October 17, 2025, was 240.95, a weekly decrease of 0.59 and a monthly decrease of 0.07 [14]. - **Transportation and Inventory**: - **45 - Port Data**: The 45 - port dredging volume on October 17, 2025, was 315.72, a weekly decrease of 11.28 and a monthly decrease of 15.56. The 45 - port inventory was 142.7827 million tons, a weekly increase of 2.5377 million tons and a monthly increase of 4.288 million tons [14]. - **Steel Mill Data**: The inventory of 247 steel mills on October 17, 2025, was 89.8273 million tons, a weekly decrease of 0.6346 million tons and a monthly decrease of 3.267 million tons. The available days for 247 steel mills were 30.21, a weekly decrease of 0.03 and a monthly decrease of 1.09 [14]. - **Global and Regional Shipments**: The global shipment volume on October 17, 2025, was 3333.5, a weekly increase of 126 and a monthly increase of 8.7. The Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2740, a weekly increase of 73.5 and a monthly increase of 46.7 [14]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: - The current molten iron output, although slightly decreased month - on - month, is still growing year - on - year and at a seasonal high, supporting the basic demand for iron ore [3]. - The current iron ore basis has increased, and the valuation is relatively low [3]. - The expectation of incremental stimulus policies has risen under the background of weak demand [3]. - **Negative Factors**: - Sino - US trade friction has led to a significant decline in market risk preference [6]. - Iron ore shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventories show super - seasonal accumulation [6]. - Hot - rolled coil inventories continue to accumulate beyond the season, and overall demand momentum is insufficient [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Macro - China's Q3 GDP growth slowed, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The GDP deflator showed a marginal rebound. The production side remained resilient in September, while the demand side declined. Fiscal measures are expected to support the economy, and the key to economic recovery lies in the repair of domestic demand [1][2]. - The US government shutdown has led to a data vacuum, and the market's concerns about the economy have eased, but risks remain. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact may be limited due to market pre - pricing [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Despite the US government shutdown and delayed economic data, the US dollar index has not fallen significantly. The People's Bank of China aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. The USD/RMB spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock market has been oscillating, and the trading volume has shrunk. The market is waiting for the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and policy signals from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market adjusted after a rebound last week. The slowdown in GDP growth, weak investment and consumption, and the downward trend in the real estate market support low - level interest rates. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to influence the bond market [7]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - The spot index has rebounded, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved fundamentally. The futures market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [8][9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is facing a directional choice, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and interest rate cut expectations [14][16]. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are stable. The Shanghai aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [17]. - Alumina: It is in an oversupply situation, and a bearish view is maintained before large - scale production cuts [18]. - Zinc: The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - driving factors [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are following the market's oscillation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [20]. - Tin: It is expected to be bullish in the long term, with a stable wave - like upward trend in the medium and short term [21][22]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly in the future, and the impact of polysilicon production cuts needs to be observed [22][23]. - Lead: The price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [24]. Black Metals - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The demand has recovered slightly but is still lower than in previous years. The supply needs to be adjusted through production cuts. The price may rebound slightly but is likely to fall back later [26]. - Iron Ore: It is under pressure, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The price is expected to be affected by policy signals [27][28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has support at the bottom but is restricted by the downstream steel market. A volatile trading strategy is recommended [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: They have high inventories and weak downstream demand. The price is under pressure without significant stimulus policies [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors have weakened, and macro - factors are negative. The price is expected to decline in the medium and long term [33][34]. - LPG: It is oscillating, with the domestic fundamentals changing little [36][37]. - PTA - PX: The macro - expectation is not optimistic, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US trade negotiations [38][40]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The valuation is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to macro - factors [41][42]. - Methanol: The price range is expected to be 2250 - 2350, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [44]. - PP: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure. The macro - environment also has a negative impact [46][47]. - PE: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by the macro - environment [48][50]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. A strategy of narrowing the price difference is recommended in the short term [51][52]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to decline, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is weak [54][55]. - Asphalt: The short - term performance is not outstanding. Attention should be paid to macro - meetings and new demand points [57][58]. - Urea: It is under pressure and oscillating. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro - sentiment [59]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: They are fluctuating at a low level. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [60][61][63]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: Pulp is oscillating, and offset paper is under pressure [63][64]. - Logs: There is a marginal positive impact on the far - month price, but there are uncertainties. A cautious long - position strategy is recommended for the far - month contract [65][66]. - Propylene: It continues to be weak, with a loose supply and cost pressure [67][68]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The supply is still excessive, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' replenishment behavior, and long - term attention should be paid to capacity - reduction policies [70][71]. - Oilseeds: For soybeans, the supply may face a gap in the first quarter of next year. The demand for soybean meal will maintain a certain level. Rapeseed meal will see accelerated inventory reduction, and the trading opportunity needs to be determined by warehouse receipts [72]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and the September economic data showed different trends in production and demand. The LPR remained unchanged, and there were developments in Sino - US trade and international political situations [1]. - The US government shutdown and the expected Fed interest rate cut are important factors affecting the market [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose slightly, and the central parity rate was adjusted down. Sino - US trade negotiations and economic data are the focus [3]. - The central bank's policy aims to maintain exchange rate stability, and the exchange rate is expected to be stable within a reasonable range [4]. Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and oscillated, with a decline in trading volume. Important economic data, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Fourth Plenary Session are influencing factors [6]. - The market is waiting for policy signals, and the trading volume is shrinking, indicating a strong wait - and - see sentiment [7]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market adjusted after a rebound. The GDP growth slowdown and other economic data support low - level interest rates. The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to affect the bond market [7]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - The futures market rose, and the spot index rebounded significantly. However, the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved fundamentally [9]. - The market is affected by multiple factors, and the futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [10][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price of copper futures rose, and the inventory situation changed. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and interest rate cut expectations [14][15][16]. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are stable. The Shanghai aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [17]. - Alumina: It is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [18]. - Zinc: The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - driving factors [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are following the market's oscillation, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly [20]. - Tin: It is expected to be bullish in the long term, with a stable wave - like upward trend in the medium and short term [21][22]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly in the future, and the impact of polysilicon production cuts needs to be observed [22][23]. - Lead: The price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [24]. Black Metals - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The demand has recovered slightly but is still lower than in previous years. The supply needs to be adjusted through production cuts. The price may rebound slightly but is likely to fall back later [26]. - Iron Ore: It is under pressure, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The price is expected to be affected by policy signals [27][28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has support at the bottom but is restricted by the downstream steel market. A volatile trading strategy is recommended [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: They have high inventories and weak downstream demand. The price is under pressure without significant stimulus policies [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors have weakened, and macro - factors are negative. The price is expected to decline in the medium and long term [33][34]. - LPG: It is oscillating, with the domestic fundamentals changing little [36][37]. - PTA - PX: The macro - expectation is not optimistic, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US trade negotiations [38][40]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The valuation is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to macro - factors [41][42]. - Methanol: The price range is expected to be 2250 - 2350, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [44]. - PP: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure. The macro - environment also has a negative impact [46][47]. - PE: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by the macro - environment [48][50]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. A strategy of narrowing the price difference is recommended in the short term [51][52]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to decline, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is weak [54][55]. - Asphalt: The short - term performance is not outstanding. Attention should be paid to macro - meetings and new demand points [57][58]. - Urea: It is under pressure and oscillating. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro - sentiment [59]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: They are fluctuating at a low level. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [60][61][63]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: Pulp is oscillating, and offset paper is under pressure [63][64]. - Logs: There is a marginal positive impact on the far - month price, but there are uncertainties. A cautious long - position strategy is recommended for the far - month contract [65][66]. - Propylene: It continues to be weak, with a loose supply and cost pressure [67][68]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The supply is still excessive, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' replenishment behavior, and long - term attention should be paid to capacity - reduction policies [70][71]. - Oilseeds: For soybeans, the supply may face a gap in the first quarter of next year. The demand for soybean meal will maintain a certain level. Rapeseed meal will see accelerated inventory reduction, and the trading opportunity needs to be determined by warehouse receipts [72].

Report Date - The report is dated October 20, 2025 [3] Index Performance Overall Index - The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2515.75, down 0.24% (-6.15 points) from the previous close of 2521.90 [3] Sector Indexes - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) dropped 3.42% to 1577.33, the biggest decline among sectors [1][3] - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) rose 1.28% to 1058.04, the largest gain among sectors [1][3] - The Nanhua Metals Index (NHMI) edged up 0.13% to 6357.97, the smallest gain among sectors [1][3] Theme Indexes - The Economic Crops Index led the gainers, rising 1.24% [1] - The Building Materials Index had the smallest gain, up 0.16% [1] - The Mini Composite Index had the largest decline, down 0.32% [1] - The Coal - Chemical Index had the smallest decline, down 0.17% [1] Single - Variety Indexes - The Pig Index was the top gainer, rising 4.16% [1] - The Silver Index was the biggest loser, down 4.14% [3] Contribution to Index Fluctuations Nanhua Mini Composite Index - Positive contributors include Coke (8.17%), Crude Oil (3.63%), etc [3] - Negative contributors include Cotton (-10.96%), Rebar (-65.30%), etc [3] Nanhua Industrial Products Index - Positive contributors include Coke (21.32%), Natural Rubber (6.89%), etc [3] - Negative contributors include Cotton (-10.96%), Iron Ore (-65.30%), etc [3] Nanhua Composite Index - Positive contributors include Coke (46.28%), Natural Rubber (6.89%), etc [3] - Negative contributors include Cotton (-10.96%), Rebar (-65.30%), etc [3] Nanhua Metals Index - Positive contributors include Coke (18.61%), Natural Rubber (3.40%), etc [3] - Negative contributors include Cotton (-10.96%), Iron Ore (-65.30%), etc [3] Nanhua Energy - Chemical Index - Positive contributors include Fuel Oil (3.56%), Palm Oil (1.51%), etc [3] - Negative contributors include PVC (-9.31%), Methanol (-1.65%), etc [3] Nanhua Agricultural Products Index - Positive contributors include Rapeseed Meal (9.14%), Crude Oil (8.39%), etc [3] - Negative contributors include Glass (-4.73%), PTA (-1.91%), etc [3] Other Information - The calculation of the Nanhua Commodity Index excludes the spread at the time of contract roll - over, reflecting the real return of investing in the commodity system [8] - The contribution is calculated as the product of the change rate and the weight, and the calculation method for contribution is: a certain variety's daily change rate / Σ (each variety's daily change rate) [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The Sino-US trade friction eased over the weekend, leading to a collective higher opening of stock indices today, with the market moving in a volatile manner. The economic data for September showed that investment and consumption remained weak, and the real estate sector continued to be sluggish. However, the market has expectations for the weak fundamentals and is less sensitive to them, instead trading more on expected market conditions and anticipating the introduction of subsequent incremental policies. The trading volume of the two markets decreased significantly, and the open interest of index futures declined, indicating strong market wait-and-see sentiment. Except for the IH contract, the basis of index futures has significantly declined. In particular, the volume-weighted average basis of IC and IM has fallen to a historical low below 1%, suggesting that although market sentiment has improved, the strength and confidence are somewhat insufficient. The report believes that today's rebound is more of a repair of Friday's decline, so the rebound momentum and sustainability are not strong. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held this week, and with the support of policy利好 expectations, the downside space of stock indices is limited, and they are expected to move in a volatile manner [4]. Market Review - Today, stock indices opened higher and fluctuated, closing higher collectively. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed up 0.53%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 200.511 billion yuan. Index futures all declined with reduced volume [2]. Important Information - He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides had a candid, in-depth, and constructive exchange on important issues in bilateral economic and trade relations around implementing the important consensus reached in the previous calls between the two heads of state this year and agreed to hold a new round of Sino-US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [3]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the total retail sales of consumer goods in September were 419.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in September increased by 6.5%. From January to September, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. From January to September, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to the trading opportunity of going long on IF and short on IM [5]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.64 | 0.50 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.2287 | 5.2619 | 13.4833 | 22.8283 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | -5.7144 | -3.6593 | -3.7567 | -6.263 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.7451 | 8.9892 | 24.3216 | 35.4337 | | Open interest change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | -0.8343 | -0.803 | -0.3371 | -0.9885 | [5][8] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.63 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.98 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.12 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1737.605 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (billion yuan) | -200.511 | [8]