聚丙烯风险管理日报 2025年8月1日 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 7000-7300 | 8.48% | 6.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | 为了防止存货跌价损 | | 向 | | 间 | | | | | 失，可以根据企业的库 存情况，做空聚丙烯期 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7250-7300 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心聚丙烯价 | 多 | 货来锁定利润，弥补企 | | | | | | 理 | 格下跌 | | 业的生产 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年8月1日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 缩量下跌，两市成交额大幅回落至1.6万亿元以下 市场回顾 今日股指除中证1000指数收涨外，其余延续下跌。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落3376.85亿元。期指方 面，IM缩量上涨，其余品种均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 国务院常务会议审议通过《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》，大力推进人工智能规模化商业化 应用，推动人工智能在经济社会发展各领域加快普及、深度融合。会议部署实施个人消费贷款贴息政策与服 务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，更好激发消费潜力、提升市场活力。 2. 美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比增长2.8%，预期增长2.7%。 核心观点 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.52 | -0.63 | -0.13 | 0.25 | | 成交量（万手） | 9.9438 | 5.0833 | 8.9442 | 21.2982 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the manufacturing PMI declined marginally, and the economic momentum of the manufacturing industry also showed a marginal decline, indicating downward pressure on the overall economy. However, the Politburo meeting has set a positive policy tone, and the economy is expected to make steady progress. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and incremental policies may be introduced when economic data shows continuous downward pressure [3][7]. - The Fed's Powell made relatively hawkish remarks at the FOMC meeting. The Fed's core goals are employment and inflation. The inflation data in June was pushed up by rising commodity prices, slightly exceeding expectations, adding uncertainty to the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Marginal Decline, Policy Still Has Resilience 3.1.1 Manufacturing PMI Marginal Decline - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, lower than market expectations, and below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The production index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, and the new order index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%. The new export order index dropped to 47.1%. The raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index increased by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively [4]. 3.1.2 Policy Tone Continues to Be Proactive and Effective - The Politburo meeting at the end of July continued the previous policy tone and further clarified the intensity and direction of policy efforts in the second half of the year. The decision - makers are aware of the economic situation, acknowledging that while the economy has shown good performance in the first half, there are still potential risks in the second half. The consumer demand is weak, and corporate profit growth is negative, with over - capacity in some industries [9]. - The policy space in the second half of the year is sufficient, and fiscal and monetary policies will work together. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and there is still room for interest - rate cuts in the future, which may be implemented when overseas interest - rate pressure eases and domestic economic pressure increases. Service consumption may become a new engine for consumption growth in the second half of the year, and the stock market's allocation value is gradually emerging [12][17][19]. 3.1.3 Focus on US Inflation and Employment Data - The inflation data in June slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly driven by rising commodity prices. At the FOMC meeting, the Fed paused interest - rate cuts as expected, and there was internal disagreement. Powell's speech sent a hawkish signal, and the subsequent path of inflation is uncertain, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts may fluctuate with economic data [21]. 3.2 Key Economic Data and Events to Focus On 3.2.1 Domestic Key Events - Important policies include the release of the national childcare subsidy plan, market regulation of inferior and low - price competition, and strengthening the governance of key industries such as new - energy vehicles and photovoltaics. Key economic data shows that the total operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to June was 40.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24][27]. 3.2.2 Overseas Key Events - In the US, the Treasury Department significantly increased its borrowing estimate for the third quarter. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and there were internal differences. There were also issues related to tariffs, employment, and economic growth. Geopolitical events included Trump's stance on Russia, and cease - fire agreements in Thailand and Cambodia [28][34]. 3.3 Key Events and Data to Focus on Next Week - The table lists key events and data to be released next week, including US treasury bill auction rates, eurozone PPI, US export and import volumes, and Chinese CPI and PPI data [36]. 3.4 Weekly Performance of Major Asset Classes - The report provides charts of domestic stock index trends, bond market trends, and various commodity index trends, including the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and various South China commodity indices [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron alloy's recent price increase is due to strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. After the anti - involution meeting among iron alloy enterprises last Friday, both iron alloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment influence and capital games, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which exerts downward pressure on iron alloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of iron alloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually destocking, while silicon manganese is destocking at a faster rate. The iron alloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high. Affected by the less - than - expected policy this week, iron alloys have fallen sharply and gradually returned to the fundamentals, but the risk of further short - selling is high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of iron alloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is expected based on orders, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to the rise of iron alloy prices, iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) can be bought at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The reasons for the recent rise of iron alloys are strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. There is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, and there is downward pressure due to the decline of coking coal futures. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively small, with low operating rates, different destocking situations for silicon iron and silicon manganese. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and risk control. After the policy is less than expected, the price has returned to fundamentals, but short - selling risks are high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Beneficial Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%. The demand of five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. This week, the enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 38.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The demand of five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [5][8]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. The coking coal price has dropped significantly [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - metal sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese [8]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [10]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including different regions and contract months [11][24][35].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The current decline in cotton prices is beneficial for the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the speed of cotton inventory reduction during the off - season, and the adjustment of the China - US trade agreement [4]. Summary by Directory Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of July 24, the national new cotton sales rate was 96.5%, 7.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 8.2 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1]. - **Import**: In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 130,000 tons from the same period last year; the棉纱 import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month and the same as the same period last year; the cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% from the previous month and 24.37% from the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: In June, the domestic retail sales of textile and clothing were 127.54 billion yuan, an increase of 4.08% from the previous month and 3.10% from the same period last year; the export volume of textile and clothing was 27.315 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.22% from the previous month and a decrease of 0.13% from the same period last year [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial inventory of cotton in the country was 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June. Among them, the commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 882,100 tons, a decrease of 20,900 tons from the end of June [1]. International Market US Market - **Supply**: As of July 27, the budding rate of cotton in the United States was 80%, 6% behind the same period last year and 3% behind the average of the past five years; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 8% behind the same period last year and 2% behind the average of the past five years; the overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 55%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 6 percentage points from the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: From July 18 - 24, the net signing of US upland cotton for the 24/25 season was 8,868 tons, significantly higher than the average of the past four weeks; the shipment of upland cotton was 52,367 tons, an increase of 25% from the previous week and 10% from the average of the past four weeks; the net signing of Pima cotton was 23 tons, the shipment of Pima cotton was 1,973 tons, the signing of new - season upland cotton was 16,261 tons, and the signing of new - season Pima cotton was 1,134 tons [1]. Southeast Asian Market - **Supply**: As of July 25, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.3 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.0% from the same period last year [1]. - **Demand**: In June, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.597 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.45% from the previous month and 13.86% from the same period last year; Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% from the previous month and 6.31% from the same period last year; India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% from the previous month and an increase of 1.23% from the same period last year; Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% from the previous month and an increase of 7.59% from the same period last year [1]. Futures Market - **Cotton Futures**: The closing prices of Zhengmian 01, 05, and 09 were 13,785 yuan, 13,730 yuan, and 13,585 yuan respectively, with weekly declines of 330 yuan (-2.34%), 310 yuan (-2.21%), and 585 yuan (-4.13%) [21][24]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of CC Index 3128B, CC Index 2227B, and CC Index 2129B were 15,580 yuan, 13,670 yuan, and 15,873 yuan respectively, with increases of 31 yuan (0.2%), 32 yuan (0.23%), and 7 yuan (0.04%) [24]. - **Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 65 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the CF5 - 9 spread was 125 yuan, an increase of 295 yuan; the CF9 - 1 spread was - 190 yuan, a decrease of 285 yuan [24]. - **Import Prices**: The price of FC Index M was 13,738 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan (0.33%); the price of FCY Index C32s was 21,230 yuan, an increase of 11 yuan (0.05%) [24]. - **Cotton Yarn**: The closing price of cotton yarn futures was 19,740 yuan, a weekly decline of 630 yuan (-3.09%); the spot price was 20,670 yuan, a decline of 70 yuan (-0.34%) [24].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, with increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - end warehouse receipt pressure is relatively large, and the market is starting to follow the delivery logic. There is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is approaching delivery, causing trading to return to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price is predicted to be in the range of 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price is forecasted to be between 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For high glass inventory, sell FG2509 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs. For low glass inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1000 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1]. - **Soda Ash Inventory Management**: For high soda ash inventory, sell SA2509 futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio. For low soda ash inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Data - **Glass Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the glass 05 contract was at 1295 (down 0.23% from the previous day), the 09 contract was at 1102 (down 1.34%), and the 01 contract was at 1224 (unchanged). The (5 - 9) month - spread was 193 (up 12), the (9 - 1) month - spread was - 122 (down 15), and the (1 - 5) month - spread was - 71 (up 3) [6]. - **Glass Spot**: The average price of glass in the Shahe area on August 1, 2025, was 1248, down 19.4 from the previous day. Prices in most regions decreased slightly [7]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was at 1379 (up 0.07% from the previous day), the 09 contract was at 1256 (up 0.72%), and the 01 contract was at 1333 (up 0.6%). The (5 - 9) month - spread was 123 (down 8), the (9 - 1) month - spread was - 77 (up 1), and the (1 - 5) month - spread was - 46 (up 7) [8]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: The heavy - alkali and light - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged on August 1, 2025. The heavy - alkali price in Shahe was 1246, down 1 from the previous day [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The August 3rd OPEC+ meeting is highly anticipated by the market, and its decisions will impact the global crude oil market. Recently, OPEC+ has been accelerating production increases, with 8 core member countries' cumulative production increase accounting for 62% of the planned reduction cancellation. The meeting will determine the production increase scale for September, discuss long - term strategic directions, and address issues of non - compliant member countries. Its decisions may intensify oil price fluctuations, intensify market share competition, and have a chain reaction on downstream industries [1]. 3. Summary by Directory OPEC+ Recent Production Increase Situation Analysis - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from long - term production cuts to capacity release. Eight core member countries increased production by 411,000 barrels per day each month from May to July, far exceeding the original plan of 138,000 barrels per day. On July 5th, they decided to increase the production quota by 548,000 barrels per day in August [2]. - Saudi Arabia leads the production increase. The high demand in the Northern Hemisphere in summer provides an opportunity to expand market share, and it also aims to activate idle capacity and enhance market influence. Additionally, it is a way to reconcile internal contradictions caused by some non - compliant member countries. So far, these 8 countries have cumulatively increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day, accounting for 62% of the planned 2.2 million barrels per day reduction cancellation, and are expected to complete the cancellation in September, one year ahead of schedule [2]. 8 - Month Meeting Core Issue Research - **Determination of September Production Increase Scale**: The market generally expects that OPEC+ will focus on the September production increase scale in the August 3rd meeting and is likely to continue the production increase trend. Many predict that Saudi Arabia and its allies may approve an additional 548,000 barrels per day increase in September. However, the final scale is still uncertain as OPEC+ needs to consider global supply - demand, inventory levels, and geopolitical factors [3]. - **Discussion of Long - Term Strategic Direction**: As the first - stage large - scale production increase nears completion, OPEC+ needs to discuss whether to continue increasing production to consolidate market share or adjust the production increase rhythm or even return to production cuts to stabilize oil prices. If the cumulative production increase reaches 2.2 million barrels per day in the August meeting, OPEC+ may stop increasing production, but this depends on members' judgments of the market and interest games [4]. - **Handling Mechanism for Non - compliant Member Countries**: The issue of some member countries violating production quotas may be mentioned again. The meeting may introduce measures such as a stricter production monitoring system, economic sanctions, or adjustment of future production quotas to ensure the effective implementation of the production cut agreement and enhance OPEC+'s market control ability [5]. Potential Impact of Meeting Decisions on the Market - **Intensified Oil Price Fluctuations**: If OPEC+ decides to significantly increase production in September, global oil supply will increase, and the expectation of supply surplus will strengthen, putting downward pressure on oil prices. However, oil price trends are also affected by factors such as the global economic recovery, US monetary policy, and geopolitical conflicts. The actual impact of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices needs to consider the interaction of these factors [6]. - **Intensified Market Share Competition**: OPEC+ is accelerating production increase to compete for market share in the face of the diversified global energy pattern. If the meeting decides to continue increasing production, it will reshape the global crude oil market competition pattern, and other oil - producing countries may adjust their production strategies and market layouts [6]. - **Chain Reaction in Downstream Industries**: If production increase leads to lower oil prices, it will reduce the raw material costs of petrochemical enterprises and the operating costs of the transportation industry, but it will also reduce the fiscal revenue of oil - exporting countries and regions. Long - term low oil prices may inhibit the development of the new energy industry [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On August 1, 2025, the prices of various monthly contracts of the container shipping index (European route) futures showed a slight fluctuation. Except for the relatively stable EC2508 contract entering the delivery month, the prices of other monthly contracts declined slightly. The overall futures price trend was still affected by the spot cabin quotes on the European route and trended slightly downward. The bearish sentiment in the commodity market also had a certain negative impact on the EC. For the future, it is expected that the EC is more likely to return to a volatile state, and some contracts may slightly rebound after reaching short - term lows. In the medium term, without sudden event factors, the overall futures price trend may still slightly decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For those with positions in cabin management but with full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at the entry range of 1700 - 1800 [1]. - For those in cost management who expect to book cabins according to order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching the peak season, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at the entry range of 1300 - 1400 to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance [1]. Market Information 利多解读 - The Israeli side responded to Hamas' counter - proposal on Tuesday evening, but it is expected that Hamas will not accept the terms. The Doha talks have been in a stagnant state since Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recalled the negotiation team earlier this month [2]. 利空解读 - ONE lowered the spot cabin quotes on the European route in mid - August. The daily changes in the EC basis showed different trends for different contracts [3]. EC Price and Spread - On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of different EC contracts had different daily and weekly changes. For example, the EC2508 contract had a closing price of 2126.5, a daily increase of 0.23%, and a weekly decrease of 3.89%. The spreads between different contracts also changed accordingly [5]. Shipping Quotes - On August 14, for the Maersk shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP increased by $5 to $1735, and for 40GP it increased by $10 to $2910. For the ONE shipping schedule, the total quote for 20GP decreased by $130 to $2194, and for 40GP it decreased by $200 to $2943 [7]. - The latest values of global freight rate indices showed different changes. For example, the SCFIS European route index was 2316.56, a decrease of 3.50% compared to the previous value; the SCFI European route was $2090 per TEU, an increase of 0.53% [8]. Port Waiting Time - The waiting times at major global ports on July 31, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.859 days to 0.880 days compared to July 30, 2025 [13]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - On July 31, 2025, the speeds of different types of container ships showed different changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained unchanged at 9 compared to the previous day [23].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index rebounded in the week from July 28th to July 31st, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.17% (the decline significantly narrowed). The increase in the demand for tanker use in the Red Sea and the decrease in the Aden Gulf region were favorable for the BDTI index. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ crude oil production increases and global economic expectations [2]. - As of July 25th, the crude oil shipment volume showed a pattern of "three decreases and one increase." The shipment volume decreased in the US by 6.26%, Saudi Arabia by 21.02%, and the UAE by 0.48%, while it increased in Russia by 12.6% [2]. - In the week from July 26th to July 30th, the total tanker traffic in the Red Sea increased, with an increase in the number of crude oil tankers and a decrease in the number of refined oil tankers. In the Aden Gulf, the tanker traffic decreased slightly [7]. - As of July 26th, except for the Suez - type tankers, the port tanker capacity of other tanker types increased [9]. - In the week from July 26th to July 30th, China, India, and the Netherlands all saw a week - on - week decline in crude oil arrivals, and their import demand fell below the level of the same period in 2024, reaching the average of the past four years [30]. 3. Summary by Section BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of July 31st, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 921 points, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.17%. The freight rate increased significantly in that week from a seasonal perspective [2][3]. Tanker Voyage Distance - In the 28th week of 2025 (as of July 18th), except for the Aframax tankers whose voyage distance decreased week - on - week, the voyage distances of VLCC and Suez - type tankers increased. Specifically, the voyage distances of VLCC, Aframax, and Suez - type tankers changed by +3.2%, - 7.33%, and +13.94% week - on - week respectively. Compared with the same period last year, the Aframax tankers' voyage distance was still in a shortened state [5]. Tanker Traffic in the Red Sea and Aden Gulf - From July 26th to July 30th, the average daily tanker traffic in the Red Sea was 771 ships, an increase of 26 ships from the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers increased by 34, and the number of refined oil tankers decreased by 11. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC decreased by 5, the number of Suez - type increased by 5, and the number of Aframax increased by 7 [7]. - In the Aden Gulf, the tanker traffic reached 113 ships, a decrease of 3 ships from the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers increased by 2, and the number of refined oil tankers decreased by 1. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC remained unchanged, the number of Suez - type increased by 1, and the number of Aframax decreased by 4 [7]. Tanker Capacity - As of July 26th, 2025, 9,421 tankers were dismantled, an increase of 3 week - on - week and 81 year - on - year; the number of effective ships was 18,292, an increase of 8 week - on - week and 443 year - on - year; the number of ship deliveries was 196, a decrease of 6 week - on - week and an increase of 72 year - on - year; the number of ship orders was 1,359, an increase of 3 week - on - week and 170 year - on - year; the number of ships under construction was 220, unchanged week - on - week and an increase of 85 year - on - year [9]. - As of July 26th, except for the Suez - type tankers whose port capacity decreased week - on - week, the port tanker capacity of other tanker types increased. Specifically, the number of VLCCs berthed was 2,416, an increase of 18 week - on - week; the number of Aframax berthed was 3,271, an increase of 74 week - on - week; the number of Suez - type tankers berthed was 2,409, a significant decrease of 358 week - on - week [9]. Crude Oil Shipment Data Tracking - US crude oil shipments decreased week - on - week, with the demand for VLCC use increasing week - on - week. Seasonally, the demand for Aframax tankers was the weakest, below the average level of the same period in the past four years [11][15]. - Russian crude oil shipments increased week - on - week. Seasonally, the demand for Suez - type tankers was extremely strong [11][19]. - Saudi crude oil exports continued to decline week - on - week. Seasonally, the demand for VLCC use was extremely weak [21]. - UAE crude oil shipments decreased. Seasonally, the demand for all three tanker types was higher than the four - year average, and the demand for Aframax tankers was the strongest in that week [26]. - The total crude oil shipments of Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria increased slightly, mainly due to the week - on - week increase in the shipment volume of Kuwait and Iran [29]. Crude Oil Arrivals - In the week from July 26th to July 30th, the crude oil arrivals in China, India, and the Netherlands all decreased week - on - week. Seasonally, the crude oil import demand of the three countries fell below the level of the same period in 2024, reaching the average of the past four years [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Supported by the macro "anti-involution" theme, the ethylene glycol price is strongly running under supply-side disturbances. Although demand shows no improvement, frequent supply-side accidents have strengthened the near-term pattern of ethylene glycol, delaying the inventory accumulation expectation again. With low inventory, it remains easy to rise and hard to fall. Before the macro narrative is realized, it is expected to stay strong in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - Ethylene glycol price range is predicted to be 4200 - 4700, with a current volatility of 9.09% and a historical percentile of 1.4% over 3 years [1] - PX price range is predicted to be 6500 - 7400, with a current volatility of 11.78% and a historical percentile of 17.7% over 3 years [1] - PTA price range is predicted to be 4400 - 5300, with a current volatility of 9.30% and a historical percentile of 4.6% over 3 years [1] - Bottle chip price range is predicted to be 5800 - 6500, with a current volatility of 7.92% and a historical percentile of 0.9% over 3 years [1] Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, for long spot exposure, it is recommended to short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio in the entry range of 4450 - 4550 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a 50% hedging ratio in the entry range of 5 - 15 [1] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the entry range of 4300 - 4400 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Sell put options (EG2509P4300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops, with a 75% hedging ratio in the entry range of 15 - 30 [1] Market Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Due to typhoons and other weather conditions, a large number of arrivals have been delayed this week, and the inventory accumulation at the port next Monday is expected to be less than expected [5] - The restart of Satellite Petrochemical's first line, originally scheduled for mid - August, has been postponed, and the production forecast for August - September has been lowered [5] Bearish Factors - After the release of the Politburo meeting content on July 30th, the "anti-involution" sentiment has initially cooled, and the valuation is returning to fundamentals [5] - The previously temporarily shut - down devices in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and the import forecast for September has been revised upwards [5] Polyester Raw Material Production Device Summary - Before May 30, 2005, there were various polyester raw material production devices in different regions and enterprises, including MEG, PX, and PTA, with details such as capacity, production time, and operation status provided [6] Polyester Daily Data Price and Spread - Data on the prices of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, and different polyester contracts on August 1, 2025, July 31, 2025, and July 25, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes, are provided. Also, information on various spreads like TA main basis, EG main basis, and month - to - month spreads is given [7] Warehouse Receipts - PTA warehouse receipts are 30740, MEG warehouse receipts are 2168, and PX warehouse receipts are 0 [8] Processing Fees and Profits - Data on processing fees such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, and profits of products like POY, DTY, and polyester bottle chips, as well as their daily and weekly changes, are provided [8]