Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. It anticipates that the central bank will mainly use open - market operations to maintain a stable money market before the holiday. Traders should adopt a range - bound trading strategy and avoid chasing high prices [1][3]. 3. Key Points from Different Sections 3.1. Market Review - On Monday, bond futures rebounded across the board, and spot bond yields declined. The central bank started to inject cross - quarter funds through 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a total of 540.5 billion yuan and a net injection of 260.5 billion yuan. The money market continued to ease compared to last week, and the DR001 rate dropped to 1.43% [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - The September LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. - Pan Gongsheng stated that the financial reform content for the "15th Five - Year Plan" and beyond will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment [2]. 3.3. Market Analysis - There was no incremental positive news in the market today. The unchanged LPR quote in the morning met expectations, and the press conference in the afternoon on the achievements of the 14th Five - Year Plan for financial development had no incremental policy information. The market rebound was mainly a correction of the pessimistic sentiment on Friday [3]. 3.4. Futures Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 22 Price | 2025 - 09 - 19 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 22 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 19 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.396 | 102.358 | 0.038 | 76,728 | 75,499 | 1,229 | | TF2512 | 105.76 | 105.63 | 0.13 | 151,551 | 148,476 | 3,075 | | T2512 | 107.945 | 107.755 | 0.19 | 251,433 | 249,865 | 1,568 | | TL2512 | 115.09 | 114.88 | 0.21 | 169,375 | 169,501 | - 126 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0141 | - 0.0347 | 0.0206 | TS Main Contract Volume (Lots) | 28,858 | 35,797 | - 6,939 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0369 | - 0.0542 | 0.0911 | TF Main Contract Volume (Lots) | 50,317 | 92,239 | - 41,922 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.1268 | 0.019 | 0.1078 | T Main Contract Volume (Lots) | 79,097 | 140,197 | - 61,100 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.6336 | 0.4458 | 0.1878 | TL Main Contract Volume (Lots) | 113,691 | 179,539 | - 65,848 | [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current mainstream shipping companies' spot cabin quotes for European routes in early October continue to decline, with the quotes of some major shipping companies falling below $1000 for 20 - foot containers, hitting a new low in recent years. The futures price valuation is also continuously decreasing, and the European - line index futures price is likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend before November [1]. - In the short - term, the futures price has dropped to a short - term low for two consecutive weeks, with the possibility of a short - term rebound. Next week is the last week before the National Day holiday, so there may be large - scale closing of positions and price fluctuations, and the futures price is likely to be mainly volatile [3]. - In the long - term, if the cease - fire agreement in Gaza is reached again or other geopolitical risks suddenly decrease, and the Red Sea resumes shipping, the European - line freight rate will significantly decline. The demand in the off - season may further weaken, and the support from demand during peak seasons like December may also be relatively weak [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Factors** - The core factor affecting the EC price trend this week is the decline of the spot cabin quotes for European routes to a new low in recent years. The EC price is highly positively correlated with the spot cabin quotes for European routes. Attention should be paid to the changes in the quotes and the market fundamentals, as well as whether shipping companies will issue price - increase letters [1]. - In the short - term, the spot cabin quotes for European routes and the SCFI European line continue to decline, and the US - line quotes also drop significantly. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound in the futures price [3]. - In the long - term, geopolitical situations in the Middle East and the seasonality of the European - line container shipping market will affect the freight rate [6]. - **Trading - type Strategy Recommendations** - **Trend Judgement**: The downward momentum continues. The short - term support level for the main contract is in the range of 950 - 1000, and the pressure level is in the range of 1150 - 1200. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Considering the off - season of the container shipping market, for hedging purposes, one can sell at high positions. Pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of the short - term December contract at 1500 - 1550 points [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy** - Traders can temporarily stay on the sidelines for both the spot - futures (basis) strategy and the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy. Previous short positions can be partially closed at an appropriate time [9]. - **Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions** - **Cargo Space Management**: For companies with full cargo space or poor booking volume, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. - **Cost Management**: For shipping companies or those who want to book cabins according to orders, they can buy container shipping index futures to determine the booking cost in advance [10]. - **Basic Data Overview** - The comprehensive freight rate indices of the container shipping market show different trends. The FBX comprehensive route index, SCFI, NCFI, CFFI, and SCFI European and US routes have declined, while the CICFI has increased slightly [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The Israeli military's continuous military operations in the Gaza Strip may affect shipping routes and freight rates [25]. - **Negative Information**: The spot cabin quotes for European routes of mainstream shipping companies in early October continue to decline, and the SCFI European line also drops [26]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow**: The price of the container shipping index (European line) futures (EC) continues to be weak and volatile under the guidance of the spot booking price. The moving averages are in a short - position arrangement, with a slight downward expectation. The trading sentiment in the market is relatively cautious, and the subsequent price fluctuations may converge [28][29]. - **Basis Structure**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) for European routes continues to decline, and the basis has narrowed. Traders can stay on the sidelines, and previous short positions can be partially closed. The basis rate in September has dropped to a reasonable range, and hedging at the current point requires caution [33]. - **Inter - period Spread Structure**: The price decline of each monthly contract this week is mainly affected by the continuous decline of the spot cabin quotes. The near - month contracts are more affected by negative factors, and the spreads of some contract combinations have significantly widened. Traders can stay on the sidelines [38]. Chapter 4: Profit Analysis - Some mainstream shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Maersk, and CMA CGM have performed well in terms of profits and revenues in the first half of 2025, but the profits of some shipping companies like ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport have significantly decreased compared with the same period last year. Most shipping companies are still profitable, but they will be more cautious in operation in the second half of the year, which may affect freight rates from the supply and cost sides [42].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the anti - involution theme, exchange measures like position limits and fee hikes, and the delivery logic of the 2509 contract, some varieties with weak supply - demand fundamentals have seen continuous declines. In September, some varieties started to stabilize after losing the downward guidance of the 09 contract. The impact of the anti - involution theme is limited. With the National Day holiday approaching, it's advisable to control positions and operate cautiously [2][3][5]. - Anti - involution varieties are relatively strong, while the non - ferrous sector is bearish [3]. - The anti - involution is a long - term theme. After a sharp rise in July, trading volume and open interest of anti - involution varieties decreased due to position limits and fee hikes, and some varieties with weak industrial supply - demand in the real - world declined in mid - and late - August. After September 1st, these varieties showed signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The implementation of anti - involution policies in the industrial end is a key influencing factor. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle led to the outflow of profit - taking funds, causing a downward adjustment in the non - ferrous sector. For agricultural products, if the Sino - US tariff negotiation progresses smoothly, domestic agricultural products will face pressure [4]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1. Capital Flow - The total capital flow is - 5.637 billion yuan, with significant outflows in non - ferrous metals (- 3.211 billion yuan) and precious metals (- 224 million yuan), and inflows in soft commodities (239 million yuan) and oils and fats (123 million yuan) [8]. 3.2. Weekly Data of Black and Non - ferrous Metals - Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, open interest percentile, open interest change percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties. For example, iron ore has a price percentile of 21.5%, a inventory percentile of 55.0%, etc. [8] 3.3. Weekly Data of Energy and Chemicals - Similar data is presented for energy and chemical varieties. For instance, fuel oil has a price percentile of 4.9%, a inventory percentile of 36.7%, etc. [10] 3.4. Weekly Data of Agricultural Products - Data for agricultural product varieties are shown, like soybean meal with a price percentile of 6.1%, a inventory percentile of 77.4%, etc. [11] 3.5. Capital Flow Diagrams - There are diagrams showing the capital flow of black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, other chemical varieties, energy varieties, oils and fats and oilseeds, agricultural and sideline products, and non - ferrous sectors [12][16][17][19][21][22][26]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil market is "Oscillating weakly" [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction in the current crude oil market lies in the game between the phased support of short - term disturbing factors (geopolitical risks, aftermath of macro - policies) and the continuous suppression of medium - and long - term fundamentals (increasing supply, decreasing demand, and surplus pressure). Short - term factors usually have an impact within a week and are often followed by price drops after rebounds, with the high points showing a downward trend [1] - In the medium - and long - term, the fundamentals are bearish. The supply side will face increasing pressure as OPEC+ starts the second - stage production resumption in October, and the end of the Middle East's summer peak electricity demand will turn direct - burning crude oil demand into supply. On the demand side, there is a clear seasonal inflection point, with demand in the US and China showing a "seasonal peak - to - decline" trend [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - **Short - term trading logic**: Tensions in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and South America have not substantially escalated, and the boost to oil prices is only an "expected risk premium", which is usually digested within a week. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment is stable, and the policy impact has been gradually realized. Short - term oil price rebounds are often "weak repairs" and are difficult to form a trend reversal [3] - **Long - term trading expectation**: In the medium - and long - term, the supply side will see increased pressure due to OPEC+ production resumption and the change in Middle East demand - supply. The demand side shows a seasonal decline, and the supply - demand imbalance will accumulate surplus pressure unless OPEC+ makes a significant production cut [4] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - **Market positioning**: Oscillating weakly - **Strategy suggestions**: Consider a long position in the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3; consider a short position in the spread between SC and Brent; gasoline cracking spreads are seasonally weak, while diesel cracking spreads are strong [9] 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Ukraine's attack on Russian energy facilities, an unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, and the Fed's interest rate cut have all supported oil prices [10] - **Negative information**: OPEC's production increase plan, an increase in US distillate inventories, and weak global demand expectations have put downward pressure on oil prices [11] 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - A new round of domestic oil price adjustment will take place at 24:00 on September 23. As of September 19, the reference crude oil change rate is - 0.33%, and the expected reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices is 20 yuan/ton. Due to the impact of the previous price adjustment, there is a high probability of a price increase this time [13] 3. Disk Analysis 3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Analysis - **Trend analysis**: This week, oil prices oscillated and rose slightly, showing a "rising in the early stage and adjusting in the later stage" pattern. The average price this week is higher than last week but lower than last month due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and weak global demand recovery [14] - **Domestic market**: On September 19, the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil futures remained unchanged. The daily - level MACD is in a golden - cross cycle, and the price is close to the middle track of the Bollinger Bands [16] - **Foreign market**: On September 19, the trading volume of WTI crude oil futures decreased, while the number of open contracts increased. The trading volume of Brent crude oil futures increased, and the number of open contracts also increased slightly. As of the week ending September 16, the speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil increased [16] 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Spread Tracking - Analyze the seasonal trends of various crude oil spreads, such as the spreads between different contracts of Brent, WTI, and SC [25] 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - Track the seasonal trends of regional spreads, including the spreads between SC and Brent, SC and WTI, etc. [27] 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - Analyze the downstream valuation in different regions, including Europe, North America, Asia - Pacific, and China, and track the seasonal trends of cracking spreads and refining margins [37][41][48] 5. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - side Tracking - From September 6 - 12, US crude oil production decreased week - on - week. From September 13 - 19, the number of active oil rigs in the US increased week - on - week [57] 5.2 Demand - side Tracking - From September 6 - 12, US refinery crude oil input and operating rate decreased week - on - week. From September 12 - 18, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in China increased week - on - week, while that of major refineries decreased slightly [59] 5.3 Inventory - side Tracking - As of September 12, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, strategic petroleum inventories increased, and Cushing region oil inventories decreased week - on - week [62] 5.4 Balance Sheet Tracking - The EIA September report predicts that global oil demand will increase slightly in 2025, but the growth will slow down in the second half of the year. Global oil supply is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026. Refinery throughput will decrease in October due to seasonal maintenance. Global oil inventories increased in July and remained stable in August [65][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic growth is slowing down, with drags from the real estate sector, weakening consumption support, and declining investment growth. However, policy - side counter - cyclical adjustments have been implemented, and the stock market remains strong while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed has started a "preventive降息周期" [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the upward risk of the US dollar may be higher than the downward risk. The exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10 in the short - term, and policy signals from the RMB central parity rate should be focused on [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the multi - empty game and the approaching holidays [6]. - Treasury bonds should focus on central bank dynamics. There may be opportunities for long - side intervention on dips [7]. - Precious metals are expected to run strongly as the Fed's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and gold price will continue to rise [10]. - Copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply in the short - term and stable demand [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina may run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [17]. - Zinc is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern and is recommended to be under - weighted [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are mainly affected by the macro - level, and the fundamentals provide no clear guidance [21]. - Tin prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton, with short - term supply remaining tight [23]. - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [25]. - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. - Lead prices are expected to be cautiously bullish as the supply - demand contradiction lies in raw materials [29]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday, with limited upward and downward space [30]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with support from replenishment and high molten iron production but limited upward space due to demand and high shipments [34]. - Coking coal and coke prices are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, but the rebound height is restricted by high steel inventory [35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost and term structure improvement, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. - Crude oil is under fundamental pressure, and the medium - term trend is bearish, although geopolitical risks may cause short - term rebounds [40]. - LPG is expected to oscillate weakly as the overall driving force weakens [44]. - PTA - PX needs macro - level drivers to break through, and the polyester peak season is not highly expected [48]. - MEG is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan, and short - term downward space is limited [51]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. - PP's downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long - positions on dips [57]. - PE is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern as the real - world situation is weak but the valuation is low [60]. - PVC is recommended to be observed temporarily due to the coexistence of weak fundamentals and macro - level expectations [62]. - Pure benzene is facing increasing surplus pressure, and its price is expected to be weakly volatile. Styrene is expected to oscillate, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene can be considered to be widened [64][66]. - Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. - Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Market Information**: There were various events such as the China - US presidential phone call, policy announcements in China (e.g., Shanghai's property tax adjustment), and overseas events like the Fed's interest - rate decision, Japan's central bank actions, and geopolitical events [1]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - economy shows a complex situation with slowing growth and policy counter - cyclical adjustments. The stock and commodity markets are affected differently, and overseas, the Fed's policy path depends on employment and inflation [2]. 3.2 RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Friday, with the central parity rate also being adjusted downwards [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policy. The US dollar index may mainly trade based on the current situation, and the RMB exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10, with policy signals from the central parity rate being crucial [4]. 3.3 Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index was volatile with reduced trading volume last Friday, and the trading enthusiasm declined but sentiment improved [6]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a multi - empty game. With the approaching holidays, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [6]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bonds rebounded last week but dropped significantly on Friday, and the money market was tight due to tax payments [7]. - **Core Logic**: The economic data in August showed downward pressure, but the market paid little attention. The bond market was less affected by the stock market. The market lacks a clear right - side signal, and attention should be paid to central bank dynamics [7]. 3.5 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Performance**: London spot gold and silver continued to rise last week, with short - term adjustments after the Fed's interest - rate cut but strong rebounds on Friday [10]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed is in a monetary policy easing cycle, and gold prices will continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy expectations and relevant economic data [10]. 3.6 Copper - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper declined during the week, and inventories changed differently in different markets [13]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in copper prices was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the future, copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply and stable demand [15]. 3.7 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends, and relevant trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, after the interest - rate cut, the focus may shift to fundamentals, and prices may oscillate strongly. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus and may have a weak price trend. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and may oscillate strongly [17]. 3.8 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated slightly, and trading volume and positions changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: The zinc market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and supply - demand fundamentals. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. It is recommended to maintain an under - weighted position [20]. 3.9 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel declined, and relevant spot prices and inventories also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: They are mainly affected by the macro - level, with limited fundamental adjustments. The future trend needs further observation [21]. 3.10 Tin - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin declined slightly during the week, and inventories increased [22]. - **Core Logic**: The decline was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the short - term, supply is tight, and prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton [23]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The weighted index contract of carbonate lithium rose last week, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [24]. - **Core Logic**: The lithium - battery industry chain performed well last week. With the expected increase in downstream demand, carbonate lithium prices may oscillate before the National Day [24][25]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The weighted futures contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [26]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. 3.13 Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated at a high level, and trading volume and positions changed [29]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut has little impact on lead prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, and prices may rise cautiously [29]. 3.14 Black Metals 3.14.1 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Steel prices were strong, and there were price adjustments in billets [30]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of steel decreased, and demand improved slightly, but inventory was still at a high level. Before the holiday, steel prices are expected to oscillate with limited space [30]. 3.14.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market may return to fundamental trading. Supply is abundant, demand is strong, and inventory is transferring from ports to steel mills. Prices are expected to oscillate [32][33]. 3.14.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: There were relevant geopolitical and policy - related events. - **Core Logic**: Downstream pre - holiday replenishment has started, and the market's sentiment is improving. However, high steel inventory restricts the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. 3.14.4 Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese rose, and positions decreased [37]. - **Core Logic**: They are supported by cost and term - structure improvement. The long - term logic is related to the anti - involution expectation, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. 3.15 Energy and Chemicals 3.15.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices weakened, with declines in both WTI and Brent crude [40]. - **Core Logic**: The core contradiction is between fundamental pressure and geopolitical support. Fundamentals are bearish in the medium - term, while geopolitical events may cause short - term rebounds [40]. 3.15.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: LPG prices declined, and relevant spot prices also changed [42]. - **Core Logic**: The overall driving force is weakening, with supply increasing slightly and demand changing little [44]. 3.15.3 PTA - PX - **Market Performance**: The prices of PX and PTA were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [45]. - **Core Logic**: The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and macro - level drivers are needed for a breakthrough [48]. 3.15.4 MEG - Bottle Chip - **Market Performance**: The inventory of MEG increased, and the prices were affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [49]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is under pressure from inventory expectations but has limited downward space. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan [51]. 3.15.5 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The price of methanol changed, and the inventory situation was different in different regions [53]. - **Core Logic**: The main contradiction lies in the port, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. 3.15.6 PP - **Market Performance**: The price of PP declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: The downstream demand recovery is less than expected, but the profit compression may trigger device shutdowns and a potential rebound [57]. 3.15.7 PE - **Market Performance**: The price of PE declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [58]. - **Core Logic**: The real - world situation is weak, but the low valuation limits the downward space, and an oscillatory pattern is expected [60]. 3.15.8 PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC prices were at a low level, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [61]. - **Core Logic**: The industry has weak fundamentals, but macro - level expectations make short - selling less attractive. It is recommended to observe temporarily [62]. 3.15.9 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, and their inventory situations changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene faces increasing surplus pressure, and styrene may oscillate. The spread between them can be considered to be widened [64][66]. 3.15.10 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed, and their supply, demand, and inventory situations were different [67][68]. - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. 3.15.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The price of asphalt declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [70]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. 3.15.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: The price of urea declined, and its inventory situation changed [72]. - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening within a certain range. The high - price caustic soda in Shandong faces downstream resistance, inventory is increasing, and the purchase price of major downstream buyers in Shandong is declining with cautious purchasing, but the futures market has already reflected this to some extent. - The supply output fluctuates normally due to maintenance. The cost remains stable, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains above 300 yuan/ton. - Non - aluminum downstream industries are generally stable, with non - aluminum rigid demand following up. - In the future, continue to pay attention to the spot price rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. Currently, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and periodic inventory replenishment and macro - expectations may affect the price rhythm [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - According to Steel Union data, the weekly output of caustic soda this week is 818,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons compared to last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.9% (a decrease of 1.5 percentage points). According to Baichuan data, the output of liquid caustic soda is 824,200 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to last week, and the output of flake caustic soda is 104,600 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons compared to last week. There are more maintenance activities this week [3]. Inventory - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the total inventory of liquid caustic soda factories nationwide is 243,000 tons (in terms of 100% purity), a 0.4% increase compared to last week. According to Longzhong data, the in - factory inventory of liquid caustic soda (samples of fixed liquid caustic soda with 200,000 tons and above) is 378,300 wet tons, a 6.02% increase compared to last week [3]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is 328 yuan/ton, a 1.8% decrease compared to last week. This week, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda remains stable, the price of caustic soda weakens, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increases, and the overall profit of chlor - alkali enterprises decreases slightly [3]. Demand - **Alumina**: Recently, the continuous decline in the prices of domestic and overseas alumina has continuously narrowed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises. Except for regular maintenance, insufficient supply of domestic ores, and the impact of heavy rain, there are no signs of large - scale production cuts among domestic enterprises. Coupled with the continuous import of overseas supplies in the later period, the support for spot prices from the supply side is weak in the short term [3]. - **Viscose staple fiber**: The market price of viscose staple fiber has remained stable this week [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening within a range. The high - price liquid caustic soda in Shandong faces downstream resistance, inventory is increasing, and the purchase price of major downstream buyers in Shandong is declining with cautious purchasing, but the futures market has already reflected this to some extent. - The supply output fluctuates normally due to maintenance. The cost remains stable, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains above 300 yuan/ton. - Non - aluminum downstream industries are generally stable, with non - aluminum rigid demand following up. - In the future, continue to pay attention to the spot price rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. Currently, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and periodic inventory replenishment and macro - expectations may affect the price rhythm [5]. Caustic Soda Futures Market - **Futures prices**: On September 19, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts are 2,723 yuan/ton, 2,734 yuan/ton, and 2,641 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 2.06%, 1.64%, and 2.36% respectively [5]. - **Monthly spreads**: The monthly spreads of (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) are - 11, 93, and - 82 respectively, with daily changes of 11, - 17, and 6 respectively [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of 05, 09, and 01 contracts (Shandong Jinling) are - 317, - 328, and - 235 respectively, with daily changes of - 55, - 44, and - 61 respectively [5]. Spot Prices - **32% caustic soda**: The prices of most brands in different regions remain unchanged on September 19, 2025, except for Shandong Lutai, which decreased by 2.2% [7]. - **50% caustic soda**: The prices of most brands remain unchanged, except for Shandong Lutai, which decreased by 1.5% [8]. - **Flake caustic soda**: The market prices in different regions remain unchanged on September 19, 2025 [8]. Price Spreads - Most of the caustic soda brand/regional price spreads remain unchanged on September 19, 2025, except for the 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong), which increased by 50 yuan/ton [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View Glass - Supply: Current daily melting is around 160,000 tons with a short - term upward expectation. Xinjiang Puyao and Zhuzhou Liling Qibin restarted production in August. Attention should be paid to unexpected supply changes and the coal - to - gas conversion of Shahe production lines [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 60.908 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 675,000 heavy cases (-1.10%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days are 26 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. Middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [3]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the profit of natural gas - fired glass production lines is - 165 yuan, coal - gas - fired is + 94 yuan, and petroleum - coke - fired is + 41 yuan [3]. - Demand: As of mid - September, the deep - processing order days are 10.5 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.94%. The deep - processing raw material reserve is 11.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 60.87%. This week's production and sales weakened overall, especially in Shahe [3]. - Strategy: High inventories in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit price increases. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter. The glass price currently lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The near - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the mid - stream inventory reduction ability is weak. There are still profits in coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines, and policy expectations are uncertain. The cumulative apparent demand from January to September is estimated to decline by 6% - 6.5%, and the spot market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus. Future attention points include supply ignition expectations, coal prices, and mid - stream inventory reduction [3]. 纯碱 - Supply: Weekly production is 745,700 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 tons, with heavy soda down 4,000 tons and light soda down 11,400 tons). The supply remains high, and Yuanxing Phase II started the commissioning stage on September 19 [4]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,900 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 614,900 tons (an increase of 59,400 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.3705 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,500 tons. The upstream soda ash plants are reducing high - level inventories [6]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton joint - alkali method is - 71 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method is - 37 yuan/ton. The raw salt price remained stable this week, while the coal price increased, leading to a slight increase in the cost [6]. - Demand: The inventory of photovoltaic finished products continues to decline, and the pressure eases. The daily melting of photovoltaic glass is 88,800 tons, remaining stable. The float glass end is generally stable. In August, the export of soda ash was 215,400 tons, far exceeding expectations, a month - on - month increase of 33.6% [6]. - Strategy: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. With Yuanxing Phase II starting commissioning, the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The mid - and downstream of heavy and light soda ash mainly replenish inventory due to rigid demand, and the pressure on soda ash plants has eased. The long - and medium - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, and the inventory of photovoltaic glass finished products has declined to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, and there is no expectation of weakening. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. However, the export of soda ash in August exceeded 200,000 tons, which alleviates domestic pressure to some extent. High inventories in the upper and middle reaches limit the price of soda ash, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the glass futures main contract [8]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of Shahe delivery product prices, float glass prices in different regions (such as Central China, East China), and price differences between different regions and plate sizes [11][14][17]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of glass futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei Yijun) [25][27][36]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of float glass daily melting, weekly production, loss volume, production line start - up rate, and capacity utilization rate [40][41][45]. Production and Sales - Shows seasonal charts of glass production and sales rates on a weekly average basis in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, South China) [48]. Deep - Processing - Presents seasonal charts of deep - processing glass raw material inventory days, deep - processing order days, and the ratio and difference between them [54]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of float glass produced by different processes (coal - fired, natural - gas - fired, petroleum - coke - fired) [58]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of float glass monthly import, export, and net export volumes [62]. Statistics Bureau Data - Includes seasonal charts of the monthly output of flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, and laminated glass [66]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of float glass factory inventory, inventory in different regions (such as East China, North China, South China), and Shahe inventory (factory, dealer, and total inventory) [70][72][79]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of float glass weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports) and the cumulative year - on - year change of monthly apparent demand [85]. Soda Ash Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the soda ash futures main contract [88]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of the market price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions (such as Shahe, North China, Qinghai) and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [92][96][101]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in Shahe [109][111][116]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash weekly production, production of heavy and light soda ash, capacity utilization rate in different regions and processes, and monthly production (weekly converted to monthly) and its cumulative value [115][117][132]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of soda ash produced by different processes (ammonia - alkali method, co - production method) [134]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash monthly import, export, and net export volumes [143]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash factory inventory, delivery warehouse inventory, total inventory (factory + delivery warehouse), and inventory in different regions (such as North China, South China, Central China) [147][149][153]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of soda ash weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports), apparent demand of light and heavy soda ash, and the number of days of outstanding orders of soda ash enterprises and raw material inventory days of glass factories [157][160][168]. Photovoltaic Glass - Presents seasonal charts of photovoltaic glass daily melting, loss volume, combined daily melting and loss volume of float and photovoltaic glass, and weekly enterprise inventory [172][173][177].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall operation of the lithium carbonate market this week was stable, in line with previous expectations. The news of illegal waste disposal by Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. in Qinghai triggered concerns about environmental compliance, but it has not yet had a substantial impact on the supply - demand fundamentals. The core contradiction of lithium carbonate futures price trends in the next month will focus on supply - side factors such as the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo, potential disruptions at Qinghai lithium salt enterprises due to environmental inspections, and market sentiment regarding the "930" node in Jiangxi, as well as demand - side factors such as the support of downstream restocking demand during the peak season [1]. - If the "930" shutdown expectation in Jiangxi is not fulfilled after the National Day holiday, some long positions in the futures market may face closing pressure, potentially suppressing prices in the short term. The evolution of demand will also significantly affect prices. If demand support persists, prices are expected to remain in a reasonable range; otherwise, prices may weaken. By the end of October, if the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo exceeds market expectations, prices will show a weakening trend [2]. - From a national industrial policy perspective, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which may provide phased support for lithium carbonate futures prices. It is estimated that before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices will fluctuate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The current core contradiction in the lithium carbonate market lies in the supply - side factors such as the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo, potential disruptions at Qinghai lithium salt enterprises due to environmental inspections, and market sentiment regarding the "930" node in Jiangxi, and demand - side factors such as the support of downstream restocking demand during the peak season [1]. - The market focus is first on the "930" shutdown expectation in Jiangxi and further environmental policies. The evolution of demand after the National Day and the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo in late October will also be crucial for price trends [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range fluctuations. The price range is 70,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, with a low - level range of 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton and a high - level range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: When the price reaches the high - level range, short positions can be established (preferably above 78,000 yuan/ton) [9]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to gradually weaken [9]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Hold the long spread of LC2511 - LC2605 and plan to exit at the end of the month [9]. - **Option Strategy**: Sell LC2511 - P - 70000 or put options with a strike price below 70,000 (preferably enter at a price above 1,000); hold the short position of LC2511 - C - 78000 or call options with a strike price above 78,000 (preferably enter at a price above 1,700) [9]. 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - For lithium - battery enterprises, different hedging strategies are recommended based on different scenarios such as procurement management, sales management, and inventory management, including using futures, on - exchange/over - the - counter options, and different hedging ratios and entry price ranges [11]. Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: The news of illegal waste disposal by Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. in Qinghai triggered market concerns; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will accelerate the R & D and industrialization of forward - looking technologies; Fulin精工's subsidiary received a 1.5 - billion - yuan prepayment from CATL; Ganfeng Lithium's energy - storage cell production capacity is fully utilized [12]. - **Negative Information**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is researching and formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan for the Development of the New Battery Industry" to prevent low - level redundant construction [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Main Information No relevant information provided. Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuated widely, with a simultaneous decline in trading volume and open interest. The weighted index contract closed at 74,015 yuan/ton on Friday, up 3.84% week - on - week. The trading volume was about 492,300 lots, down 5.89% week - on - week, and the open interest was about 734,900 lots, down 3.61% week - on - week [16]. - Technical indicators suggest that the market is likely to enter a stage of fluctuating decline, but considering the support of moving averages, it is expected to maintain a wide - range consolidation pattern. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has the possibility of a phased increase [16]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, there are signs of short - position withdrawal, and investors are advised to reduce their positions [18]. - The term structure of lithium carbonate has changed from a backwardation to a contango structure, and there is a possibility of further weakening in the future [21]. - This week, the basis of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated. Based on historical data and spot - market fundamentals, the basis may weaken after the end of downstream restocking at the end of the month [25]. 3.2 Spot Price Data - The prices of various lithium - related products in the lithium - battery industry chain showed different trends this week, with some raw materials and products experiencing price increases, while others decreased [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Profit Tracking of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industrial Chain - The profits of lithium - salt enterprises that purchase lithium ore externally have been marginally weakening this week, but most enterprises still maintain a certain level of profitability due to previous hedging positions. The profits of enterprises purchasing lithium spodumene have increased, while those purchasing lithium mica have decreased, indicating a shortage of mica ore [28]. - The processing profits of lithium - iron phosphate plants and cobalt - acid lithium plants have started to strengthen this week, while the profit growth of ternary - material plants and manganese - acid lithium plants has decreased marginally, indicating an improvement in demand for lithium - iron phosphate cells [28]. 4.2 Import and Export Profits - Recently, the import profit of lithium carbonate has been decreasing marginally, which may affect future import volumes. In contrast, the export profit of lithium hydroxide has been increasing [32]. Chapter 5: Fundamental Situation 5.1 Lithium Ore Supply - **Domestic Mine Production**: No specific production data was provided, but charts showed the seasonal trends of domestic lithium - ore production [35]. - **Overseas Mine Imports**: No specific import data was provided, but charts showed the import volume of lithium concentrate by country and the monthly import volume of lithium spodumene by country [37]. - **Lithium Ore Inventory**: The domestic lithium - ore inventory has decreased this week, including the total available inventory, trade - merchant inventory, warehouse inventory, and port inventory [39]. 5.2 Upstream Lithium - Salt Supply - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The total production of sample enterprises this week was 20,363 tons, an increase of 2.00% week - on - week. The production of lithium carbonate from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake materials, and recycled materials also showed different trends [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate Net Exports**: No specific net - export data was provided, but a chart showed the seasonal trend of net exports [58]. - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.71% week - on - week, with a decrease in smelter inventory and an increase in downstream inventory [59]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: No specific production data was provided, but charts showed the monthly production of lithium hydroxide by process, total monthly production, and production by the smelting and causticizing ends, as well as the seasonal trends of production and operating rates [68]. 5.3 Mid - Stream Material Plant Supply - **Material Plant Production**: The production of various materials such as lithium - iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, manganese - acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different trends this week, with some increasing and some decreasing [73]. - **Material Plant Inventory**: No specific inventory data was provided, but charts showed the seasonal trends of the total weekly inventory of ternary materials, lithium - iron phosphate, and other materials [83]. 5.4 Downstream Cell Supply - **Power Cell Production**: The weekly production of power cells was 26.01 GWh, an increase of 0.08% week - on - week. The production of iron - lithium and ternary power cells also showed different trends [87]. - **Consumption - Type Cell Production**: No specific monthly production data was provided, but charts showed the monthly production of consumption - type cells by category and the seasonal trends of production [88]. - **Lithium - Battery Installation Volume**: No specific installation - volume data was provided, but charts showed the seasonal trends of the total installation volume of lithium batteries and the installation volume of power lithium batteries by vehicle type [91]. 5.5 New - Energy Vehicles - **New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: The production and sales of new - energy vehicles showed different trends, with the weekly sales of domestic new - energy passenger vehicles increasing by 41.99% week - on - week, and the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles reaching 60.00% [95]. - **New - Energy Commercial Vehicle Production**: The production of new - energy commercial vehicles showed different trends, and charts showed the production volume and seasonal trends [99]. - **Automobile Inventory**: No specific inventory data was provided, but a chart showed the seasonal trend of the domestic automobile dealer inventory warning index [104]. 5.6 Energy Storage - The total bid - winning power and capacity of energy - storage projects showed different trends, and charts showed the total bid - winning capacity and its seasonal trend [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's next - stage core challenge is to balance the demands of different stakeholders and formulate monetary policies that align with economic fundamentals and market expectations while maintaining central bank independence. Over - betting on loose policies currently may pose potential risks. The market may continue to focus on interest - rate cut trading for the US dollar index, but the room for further development is limited, and it may shift from trading on strong expectations to trading on reality. The rebound space of the US dollar index may be limited without a significant improvement in the US labor market. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate has formed a "three - price unity" pattern around 7.10, and it may fluctuate around this level in the short term. There is no clear sign of a trend appreciation of the RMB for now [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - Last week, the overall trend of the international foreign exchange market was mainly affected by the monetary policy adjustment directions of major global central banks. The key logic was centered on the expected differences in monetary policies and the repricing of interest - rate paths. By September 19th, 16:30, the US dollar index slightly appreciated compared to the previous Friday. The on - shore RMB, offshore RMB, Japanese yen, and euro all appreciated against the US dollar, while the British pound depreciated against the US dollar [3]. - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, with the rate range dropping to 4.75% - 5.00%. Fed Chairman Powell defined this as a "risk - management interest - rate cut" to prevent deterioration in the employment market. The dot - plot indicated two more rate cuts were likely this year [3]. - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate but had internal differences, with two of nine members advocating for a rate hike. It also announced an ETF reduction plan, signaling a move towards policy normalization [3]. - The Bank of Canada cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% for the first time since March due to slow economic growth and reduced inflation risks, without providing clear forward - looking guidance [3]. - The Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at 4% and adjusted its quantitative tightening plan, reducing the scale from £100 billion to £70 billion in the next 12 months and cutting long - term bond sales to minimize the impact on the bond market [3]. 3.1.2 Weekly Review of USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate - **Market Trading Logic** - **US dollar index trading logic**: At the beginning of the week, the market's high - consensus expectation of a Fed rate cut in September drove the US dollar index into a downward channel. After the official rate cut, Powell's "cautiously dovish" statement and the decline in US initial jobless claims led to a V - shaped rebound of the US dollar index [11]. - **USD/CNY spot exchange rate trading logic**: It moved in tandem with the US dollar index. It adjusted moderately when the US dollar index declined and strengthened when it rebounded. The "three - price unity" expectation also influenced market sentiment, with no one - sided speculation [11]. - **Weekly Market Review** - **Before the FOMC meeting**: The market's strong expectation of a Fed rate cut led to a downward movement of the US dollar index and a moderate adjustment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate. The exchange rate converged towards the "three - price unity" target, and there was no obvious one - sided speculation [12]. - **After the FOMC meeting**: Powell's statement and the decline in initial jobless claims led to a rebound of the US dollar index. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate achieved "three - price unity" and entered an upward channel [12]. 3.1.3 Market Outlook - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 18th. The core issues for the market now are the Fed's future interest - rate cut rhythm and amplitude, which depend on the actual severity of the weakening US labor market, the speed of interest - rate adjustment to the neutral level, and the reasonable anchoring of the "neutral interest rate" [17][19]. - It is expected that the conditions for the Fed to implement large - scale consecutive interest - rate cuts this year are not yet mature. Such a policy is more likely to be implemented in 2026, which may face challenges. Economic factors such as the slowdown (but not a stall) in the US employment market and inflation pressure, as well as the cooling real - estate market, limit the scope for large - scale easing. Politically, although there is uncertainty, the "gradual adjustment" policy line is difficult to change in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Strategy Recommendations - For enterprises with import and foreign - exchange purchase needs, it is advisable to use forward contracts to lock in exchange - rate costs. Export - oriented enterprises can conduct spot foreign - exchange settlement at the upper end of the exchange - rate range and carry out hedging operations for forward foreign - exchange settlement. Currently, the spread between spot and forward exchange rates is narrowing, reducing the profit - making space. Cross - market volatility arbitrage and short - straddle option combinations have better risk - return characteristics. For low - risk - preference participants, iron - condor option combinations or covered - call strategies can be preferred [27]. 3.1.5 Weekly Risk Warnings and Key Events - China will hold a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry, with PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng attending. The US will release the September Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value, August PCE data. Attention should also be paid to the speeches of overseas central - bank officials [28]. 3.2 RMB Market Observation 3.2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the USD/CNY was 7.1128, up 109 basis points from the previous Friday. The current trend of the counter - cyclical factor indicates that the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate is generally neutral [30]. 3.2.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In August, China's foreign - exchange market was stable, with active trading and a general balance between supply and demand. The cross - border receipts and payments of non - bank sectors increased by 8% year - on - year, and the cross - border capital inflow was $3.2 billion, with a bank settlement - sale surplus of $14.6 billion [35]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the narrowing spread between offshore and on - shore RMB indicated a slight decline in overseas investors' appreciation sentiment towards the RMB [40]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the one - year NDF closing price of USD/CNH slightly decreased. The USDCNY risk - reversal option indicators (25Delta) showed little change in market sentiment [43]. 3.2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Relevant charts show the price trends and basis differences of the HKEX USDCNH futures contracts [46][48]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Charts present the price trends and basis differences of the SGX USDCNH futures contracts, as well as the basis comparison between SGX and HKEX contracts [50][52]. 3.3 Key Data and Events to Watch 3.3.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: High - level Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Madrid. China's economic data in August showed growth in industrial added value, service production, and consumer spending. Policy measures were introduced to expand service consumption, and relevant economic data and policy statements were released [57]. - **US**: The September New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the new - home construction and initial jobless claims data were released [59]. - **UK**: The UK CPI remained high in August. The Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged and adjusted the quantitative tightening plan. The UK budget deficit reached a five - year high [61]. - **Eurozone**: The EU proposed a new round of sanctions against Russia [62]. - **Japan**: Japan's exports and imports declined in August. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate and announced an ETF and REIT reduction plan [63]. 3.3.2 One - Week Global Central - Bank Key Speeches - Speeches from central - bank officials in various countries covered topics such as the TikTok issue, Sino - US relations, and exchange - rate policies [63][65]. 3.3.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events - Key data to be released this week include China's central - bank loan prime rate, US economic data such as GDP deflator, PCE price index, and initial jobless claims, as well as speeches by central - bank officials from different countries [68][69]. 3.4 International Market Conditions 3.4.1 Major Countries' Exchange - Rate Quotes - Charts show the exchange - rate trends of the US dollar against major currencies such as the euro, yen, pound, and others [71][73]. 3.4.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Charts display the trends of major assets including London gold, VIX, crude oil prices, stock - market indices such as S&P 500 and CSI 300, and the price differences of gold [93][100]. 3.4.3 Capital Flows - Charts present the central - bank's open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes [105][107]. 3.4.4 Sino - US Interest - Rate Spread - Charts show the trends of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, 10 - year US Treasury yields, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury yields [109][110]. 3.4.5 RMB Exchange - Rate Index - The chart shows the trends of three major RMB exchange - rate indices [112]. 3.4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - In June 2025, the global economic and trade friction index was at a medium - high level but showed a significant easing trend. The US's tariff policies and trade - negotiation progress will mainly determine future developments. The index is high for countries like India, the US, and Brazil, and in industries such as electronics. The 19 - country (region) index for China - related economic and trade frictions is also high, but the amount involved has decreased [113][115].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market short - term trading is centered around whether the September photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and will gradually shift to the expectation game of "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November". The polysilicon futures market has a relatively high risk level, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [2][3]. - The near - term trading logic (before November) shows a downward trend due to the failure of the photovoltaic platform company to be established in September and the weakening willingness of downstream enterprises to accept warehouse receipts. The long - term trading logic (after November) is that although the photovoltaic platform company will operate, the polysilicon market is still under the double pressure of "high inventory + weak demand" [6][7]. - The overall trend of polysilicon is expected to be a wide - range weakening in a volatile manner, with a price range of 49,000 - 56,000 [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors affecting the polysilicon futures price include the establishment of the September photovoltaic storage platform, the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, the stability and rise of component bidding prices, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected electricity prices [2]. - In the short - term, if the September storage platform is not established, it may lead to the liquidation of long positions. After the National Day, the PS2511 contract may face pressure during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts [2]. - Fundamentally, the market shows "increasing supply and stable demand". The supply of polysilicon remains stable but there is still supply pressure, and the long - term demand depends on policies and grid - connected electricity prices [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Wide - range weakening in a volatile manner, with a price range of 49,000 - 56,000 [8]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: - Unilateral strategy: Short PS2511 at around 56,000 [10]. - Spread strategy: Try reverse spread for PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 500 [10]. - Basis strategy: Wait and see [10]. - Option strategy: Buy put options PS2511 - P - 49000 or put options with a strike price below 49,000 under low volatility; sell call options PS2511 - C - 56000 or call options with a strike price above 56,000 under high volatility [10]. 1.3 Industrial Operation Suggestions - **Risk Management Strategies**: Different hedging strategies are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management, with different hedging ratios and tools recommended [11]. 2. Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: On September 15, 2025, the total photovoltaic bidding scale was 1991.66MW, and the total winning bid scale was 751.03MW [12]. - **Negative Information**: On September 19, 2025, Guangdong issued a notice on deepening the market - oriented reform of new energy grid - connected electricity prices, and the first - round bidding for incremental projects is expected to be carried out in October 2025 [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events No information provided in the report. 3. Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Market Review and Technical Analysis**: The polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 54,263 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.57%. The trading volume increased by 3.29% week - on - week, and the open interest decreased by 9.47% week - on - week. Technical indicators suggest a possible weakening trend [16]. - **Capital Trends**: The net long positions of key profitable seats in polysilicon futures have been decreasing recently, possibly due to the approaching National Day holiday [19]. - **Spread Structure**: The term structure of polysilicon futures remains in a contango structure, and the spread between contracts has little fluctuation [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main contract has strengthened in the past week, mainly due to the decline in futures prices [26]. 3.2 Futures and Price Data - Polysilicon prices such as N - type re - feeding materials, N - type dense materials, etc. have increased to varying degrees week - on - week. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends [28]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is improving. The spot profit of polysilicon has reached up to 10,000 yuan/ton, and the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method. The futures profit rate is about 29.03% [30]. 5. Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Production**: Domestic weekly polysilicon production has minor fluctuations, and the overseas monthly production shows a certain trend [43][45]. - **Import and Export**: The net export of polysilicon shows seasonal characteristics [47]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic weekly polysilicon inventory has decreased, with different trends in production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipt inventories [48]. 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - **Production**: The weekly production of silicon wafers has increased slightly, and the inventory has also increased [52]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly net export of silicon wafers shows seasonal characteristics [55]. 5.3 Battery Cell Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of battery cells show seasonal characteristics, with different trends in different types of battery cells [59][60]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly export of photovoltaic battery cells shows a certain trend [62]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of battery cells has increased significantly [63]. 5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic components show seasonal characteristics, with different trends in N - type and P - type components [66][72]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly net export of photovoltaic components shows seasonal characteristics [69]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components has increased slightly [70]. 5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic component bidding shows that the winning bid capacity has increased significantly, and the winning bid average price has increased slightly [73]. 5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new installation volume of Chinese photovoltaics shows seasonal characteristics, and the green power generation also shows a certain trend [76][78].