文字早评 2025/12/09 星期二 宏观金融类 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.53%/-0.99%/-2.01%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.40%/-1.14%/-2.78%/-5.77%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.57%/-1.61%/-3.73%/-7.04%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.14%/-0.33%/-0.44%/-0.94%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，短 期重点关注 12 月份的中央政治局会议及中央经济工作会议，中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 股指 【行情资讯】 1、中共中央政治局召开会议 分析研究 2026 年经济工作； 2、征求对经济工作的意见和建议 中共中央召开党外人士座谈会 习近平主持并发表重要讲话 李强 通报有关情况 蔡奇丁薛祥出席； 3、乘联分会：11 月全国乘用车市场零售 224.4 万辆 同比下降 8.5%； 4、美国银行预测大宗商品将成为 2026 年最佳投资选择，因减税和降息政策将激发新一轮经济增长，大 宗商品有望表现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating upwards. The demand has improved due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With support from export policies and costs, it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [8]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish approach is currently adopted. It is recommended to buy on short - term dips and exit quickly. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested to be held [13]. - For PVC, the industry's comprehensive profit is at a historical low, but supply is high and demand is weak. With an oversupply situation, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported by cost changes in Q1 next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, it is recommended to consider going long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to consider going long on dips based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.20 yuan/barrel, or 0.93%, to 457.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also showed increases. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with a net decrease of 0.39 million barrels in total refined oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 5, remained stable in Lunan, and decreased by 7.5 in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 12 yuan to 2089 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [5]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market consolidates. With high inventory and supply pressure, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan decreased by 20, remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract decreased by 27 yuan to 1646 yuan, with a basis of + 34 [8]. - **Strategy**: The market is oscillating upwards. With improved supply - demand and support from policies and costs, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is consolidating weakly. The exchange's RU inventory is low, which is a potential bullish factor. Tire factory operating rates are mixed, and the social inventory of natural rubber has increased [11]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish approach, buy on short - term dips and exit quickly, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 5 yuan to 4431 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene increased, while the price of caustic soda decreased. The overall operating rate decreased, and both factory and social inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy**: With high supply and weak demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both increased. The supply - side upstream operating rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory reversal point appears, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased by 68 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [21]. - **Strategy**: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [23][24]. - **Strategy**: In a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory, it may be supported by cost changes in Q1 next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 56 yuan to 6842 yuan. The load of PX and PTA decreased slightly. The inventory increased in October, and the valuation is at a neutral level [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, consider going long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4694 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 20 yuan. The PTA load remained unchanged, and the downstream load increased slightly. The inventory decreased in November [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short term. Consider going long on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 22 yuan to 3701 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 60 yuan. The supply - side load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased significantly [28]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. Short on rallies in the medium term [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to remain high in the short - term, supported by the expected reduction in production due to tight mining supply and the tightening of spot supply. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory declining, high US spot aluminum premiums, and continued reduction in LME aluminum ingot inventory. Lead prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term due to low domestic delivery product inventory. Zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly in the short - term, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains unchanged. Tin prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to supply disruptions. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Stainless steel prices depend on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [4][6][8][10][12][15][18][21][24][27] Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - The domestic equity market was strong, the US dollar index was stable, and the copper price rose and then fell. LME copper 3M contract rose slightly by 0.09% to $11,675/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 92,400 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2000 to 164,550 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and bonded area inventory both increased [3] Strategy Viewpoint - The Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and it is likely to continue the rate - cut rhythm. The Chinese Politburo meeting released a relatively loose policy signal. The copper price is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 91,500 - 93,500 yuan/ton; the reference operating range for LME copper 3M is $11,500 - 11,850/ton [4] Aluminum Market Information - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and the aluminum price rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.48% to $2,886/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,120 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 0.3 to 725,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 68,000 tons [5] Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, the US spot aluminum premium is high, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory continues to decrease. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,900 - 22,400 yuan/ton; the reference operating range for LME aluminum 3M is $2,850 - 2,910/ton [6] Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index rose 0.23% to 17,338 yuan/ton on Monday. LME lead 3S fell $6 to $2,011.5/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [7] Strategy Viewpoint - The port inventory of lead ore decreased marginally, and the factory inventory increased normally. The production rates of primary lead and recycled lead are rising, and the production rate of downstream battery enterprises is also rising. The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short - term [8] Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.05% to 23,300 yuan/ton on Monday. LME zinc 3S rose $8 to $3,124.5/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 136,000 tons [9] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc ore decreased marginally, and the zinc concentrate TC declined again. In the medium - term, the supply surplus cycle of the zinc industry remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. In the short - term, the zinc price is expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly [10] Tin Market Information - On December 8, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 319,200 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous day. The supply of tin concentrate imports increased significantly in October, but the conflict in the DRC and the possible suspension of mining in Nigeria may affect the supply [11] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, the supply disruption is the decisive factor for the short - term price. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 340,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $40,000 - 44,000/ton [12] Nickel Market Information - The nickel price fluctuated narrowly on Monday. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 1,178,030 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from the previous day. The spot premiums of various brands were stable [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel price is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [15] Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 90,969 yuan, up 0.33%. The LC2605 contract closed at 94,840 yuan, up 2.91% [17] Strategy Viewpoint - Due to the mining dispute in Nigeria and the repair of the risk appetite in the equity market, the lithium carbonate price rose strongly. The trend may not last, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the LC2605 contract is 92,500 - 97,500 yuan/ton [18] Alumina Market Information - On December 8, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.11% to 2,636 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 2,725 yuan/ton [20] Strategy Viewpoint - After the rainy season, the ore shipment will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton [21] Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,510 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.08%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The social inventory decreased to 1.0803 million tons [23] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the sales improved in November, the high inventory pressure is still significant. The focus should be on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The cast aluminum alloy price fell and then rebounded. The main AD2602 contract closed down 0.26% to 21,135 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place inventory decreased by 30 tons to 49,200 tons [26] Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and the supply is affected by policies. The price is expected to follow the aluminum price to fluctuate [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday. Affected by the decline in raw material prices, the prices of finished steel products remained in a bottom - oscillating state. Terminal demand was still weak, but steel prices were gradually stabilizing. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was still prominent and difficult to significantly reduce in the short term. [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely. There is still pressure for a phased decline within the price range, and the support for the weighted contract is expected to be at 750 yuan/ton. [5] - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the trading focus is expected to return to the macro level. The future market is mainly guided by the direction of the black sector and factors such as price increases of manganese ore and electricity. [9] - The price of industrial silicon is estimated to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8500 yuan/ton. [12] - The polysilicon market shows a situation of tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and between the upstream and downstream of the industry. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. [14][15] - For glass, in the absence of unexpected changes, a bearish approach is recommended. [18] - For soda ash, the market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish approach is maintained. [20] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 46,276 tons, a net increase of 2135 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.477577 million lots, a net increase of 3036 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton (-0.87%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1.078676 million lots, a net increase of 11,932 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The rebar production decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable overall performance. [2] - The production of hot - rolled coils decreased, but the apparent demand remained neutral. It was difficult to reduce the inventory, and the social inventory was still at a relatively high level. [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 760.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.11% (-8.50). The position changed by +20,646 lots to 429,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 928,200 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.17 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.67%. [4] Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. In Australia, shipments stopped falling and increased, mainly due to the rebound in shipments from Rio Tinto and FMG. The shipment volume from Brazil decreased month - on - month, with a significant decline from Vale. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. [5] - In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output according to the latest Steel Union data was 2.323 million tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance was more than those being restarted, and the annual inspections increased with relatively long durations. The profitability rate of steel mills rebounded slightly after continuous decline, and the number of profitable steel mills was still less than 40%. [5] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 8, coking coal led the decline, and the black sector continued to weaken. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell in the morning and then rebounded in an oscillating manner, closing down 0.38% at 5736 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, remaining stable compared to the previous day, with a premium of 174 yuan/ton over the futures price. [7][8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.55% at 5444 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous day, with a premium of 156 yuan/ton over the futures price. [8] Strategy Viewpoints - The trading focus is expected to return to the macro level before the occurrence of intensive macro - events. The subsequent deployment of next year's economic work in the Central Economic Work Conference and potential policy expectations will become the trading focus of the black sector in the future. [9] - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been priced in. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly guided by the direction of the black sector and factors such as price increases of manganese ore and electricity. [9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - For industrial silicon, the closing price of the main contract (SI2601) was 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.48% (-130). The weighted contract position changed by +18,060 lots to 459,193 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the quoted price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 625 yuan/ton for 553 and 225 yuan/ton for 421. [11] - For polysilicon, the closing price of the main contract (PS2601) was 54,545 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.74% (-965). The weighted contract position changed by -1298 lots to 258,624 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 50 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged. The basis of the main contract was -2245 yuan/ton. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon showed a weak trend in the short term. In November, affected by the increase in costs during the dry season, the operating rate in the southwest production area decreased significantly, and the total output decreased. It is expected that the output in the southwest region will continue to decline in December, and the overall output may continue to decline compared to November. The demand weakened slightly, and the supply - demand pattern showed a double - weak situation with no prominent contradictions. The price is estimated to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8500 yuan/ton. [12] - For polysilicon, the production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the expected capacity ramp - up and start - up of some northwest bases. The downstream silicon wafer production reduction is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells continued to weaken, while upstream silicon enterprises maintained price support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. [14][15] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - For glass, the main contract closed at 1002 yuan/ton at 15:00 on Monday, an increase of 0.80% (+8). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1060 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China remained unchanged at 1110 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million cases, a decrease of 2.92 million cases (-4.68%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 25,830 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 61,031 lots. [17] - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1133 yuan/ton at 15:00 on Monday, a decrease of 0.35% (-4). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1123 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 48,800 tons (-4.68%), including 810,800 tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 36,000 tons, and 727,800 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 12,800 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 27,379 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 38,430 lots. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - In November, multiple production lines in the domestic glass industry were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a reduction in daily melting capacity. From the perspective of the real estate sector, the industry still faces downward pressure, and a bearish approach is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes. [18] - For soda ash, the overall industry operating rate remained stable, and the supply pressure was still large. The demand was relatively flat, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. The production enterprises mainly fulfilled previous orders and had a strong intention to stabilize prices. The Alxa Phase II project is planned to be officially put into production on December 11, which is expected to bring certain pressure to the soda ash market. The market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish approach is maintained. [20]

五矿期货农产品早报 农产品早报 2025-12-09 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一 CBOT 大豆下跌，巴西升贴水上涨，大豆到港成本小幅下跌。周一国内豆粕现货跌 10 元，华东报 3010 元/吨，豆粕成交、提货均较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 205.583 万吨，上周压榨大 豆 221.16 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.49 天环比上升 0.32 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，因到港量 及压榨量环比下滑，国内豆粕表需下滑程度相对较小。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，大豆种植率已达 94%。然而阿根廷主产区预计降雨量持续较少， 产区还未达到一帆风顺。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index, large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and mid-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks showed a market trend of high-level volatile upward movement [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options decreased but maintained high-level fluctuations [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a partial long seller strategy and a bull spread strategy of call options; for index options, it is suitable to construct a partial long seller strategy, a bull spread strategy of call options, and an arbitrage strategy between the synthetic long futures of options and short futures [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,902.81, up 27.01 points or 0.70%, with a trading volume of 716.7 billion yuan, an increase of 93 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,147.68, up 140.96 points or 1.08%, with a trading volume of 1,009 billion yuan, an increase of 83.8 billion yuan [4]. - The SSE 50 Index closed at 3,002.01, up 27.67 points or 0.93%, with a trading volume of 110.4 billion yuan, an increase of 21.8 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,584.54, up 37.97 points or 0.84%, with a trading volume of 412.1 billion yuan, an increase of 63.4 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,097.84, up 85.03 points or 1.21%, with a trading volume of 275.1 billion yuan, an increase of 35.2 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,342.49, up 93.84 points or 1.29%, with a trading volume of 352.8 billion yuan, an increase of 41.5 billion yuan [4]. ETF Market Review - The SSE 50 ETF closed at 3.145, up 0.029 or 0.93%, with a trading volume of 6.6371 million shares, an increase of 6.5941 million shares, and a trading value of 2.08 billion yuan, an increase of 0.739 billion yuan [5]. - The SSE 300 ETF closed at 4.698, up 0.041 or 0.88%, with a trading volume of 6.872 million shares, an increase of 6.8318 million shares, and a trading value of 3.217 billion yuan, an increase of 1.345 billion yuan [5]. - The SSE 500 ETF closed at 7.216, up 0.091 or 1.28%, with a trading volume of 3.0853 million shares, an increase of 3.073 million shares, and a trading value of 2.214 billion yuan, an increase of 1.344 billion yuan [5]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.394, unchanged, with a trading volume of 25.9236 million shares, an increase of 25.7015 million shares, and a trading value of 3.596 billion yuan, an increase of 0.529 billion yuan [5]. - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.351, up 0.002 or 0.15%, with a trading volume of 7.1322 million shares, an increase of 7.0602 million shares, and a trading value of 0.958 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.04 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.844, up 0.042 or 0.87%, with a trading volume of 1.2995 million shares, an increase of 1.2929 million shares, and a trading value of 0.627 billion yuan, an increase of 0.309 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.882, up 0.037 or 1.30%, with a trading volume of 0.6426 million shares, an increase of 0.6369 million shares, and a trading value of 0.184 billion yuan, an increase of 0.022 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 3.432, up 0.033 or 0.97%, with a trading volume of 1.0109 million shares, an increase of 1.0016 million shares, and a trading value of 0.344 billion yuan, an increase of 0.031 billion yuan [5]. - The ChiNext ETF closed at 3.089, up 0.038 or 1.25%, with a trading volume of 8.7384 million shares, an increase of 8.6576 million shares, and a trading value of 2.681 billion yuan, an increase of 0.231 billion yuan [5]. Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The volume and position PCR of various options were analyzed, showing the changes in trading volume, position, and PCR values of different option varieties [6]. Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various options were determined based on the strike prices with the highest open interest of call and put options [8][10]. Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various options was analyzed, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [11][12]. Strategy and Recommendations - The financial option sector is divided into large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and mid-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks. Different option strategies and recommendations are provided for each sector [13]. - For the SSE 50 ETF, it is recommended to construct a seller-neutral combination strategy for volatility, and a spot long covered call strategy [14]. - For the SSE 300 ETF, it is recommended to construct a short volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot long covered call strategy [14]. - For the SSE 500 ETF, it is recommended to construct a short volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot long covered call strategy [15]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF, it is recommended to construct a short volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot long covered call strategy [15]. - For the ChiNext ETF, it is recommended to construct a short volatility strategy to obtain time value, and a spot long covered call strategy [16]. - For the CSI 1000 index, it is recommended to construct a short volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the delta short [16].

黑色建材日报 2025-12-08 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.56%）。当日注册仓单 44141 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 147.4541 万手，环比增加 62636 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3320 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.36%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For copper, with the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting likely to continue the rate - cut rhythm and China's year - end economic meeting expected to release clearer policy signals, the sentiment is slightly positive. The expected reduction in production due to tight mine supply and the tightening of spot supply support copper prices to reach new historical highs. In the short term, copper prices may rise further under the expectation of policy easing [5]. - For aluminum, with the domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreasing, the high premium of US spot aluminum, the continuous decrease of LME aluminum ingot inventory at a relatively low level, combined with supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rise of copper prices, aluminum prices may strengthen further [8]. - For lead, the port inventory of lead ore is decreasing marginally, and the factory inventory is accumulating normally. The operating rates of primary and recycled lead are rising, and the downstream battery enterprises' operating rate is also increasing. Although the smelter's factory inventory is rising, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has decreased to a low level, and the deliverable products in circulation are relatively scarce. In the short term, lead prices are expected to be strong [10]. - For zinc, in the medium term, the good profits of zinc mines will turn into a definite increase in supply, and the oversupply cycle of the zinc industry remains unchanged, so the upward space is expected to be limited. In the short term, with the supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots narrowing and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly after breaking through the pressure level [12]. - For tin, although the current demand in the tin market is weak, the bargaining power is limited due to the low downstream inventory. Supply disruptions are the determining factor for short - term prices, so the probability of short - term tin price increase is high [13]. - For nickel, the oversupply pressure of nickel remains large, but with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [16]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand mismatch in the domestic lithium carbonate market has not been reversed. The market's concerns about the sustainability of lithium mica production have been digested. The supply is less likely to have additional reduction, and the expectation of good consumption is strengthening. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [20]. - For alumina, after the rainy season, the shipment will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production reduction is strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - For stainless steel, although the sales improved in November, the high inventory pressure is still significant. The focus of the market should be on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts. If the supply can be effectively controlled and the production cut intensity increases, or combined with positive policy signals and the release of downstream low - level restocking demand, it is expected to break the current supply - demand deadlock [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost price is relatively firm, and the policy continues to disrupt the supply side, so there is strong support at the bottom. However, the demand is relatively unstable and the delivery pressure forms an upper - level suppression. In the short term, the price may continue to fluctuate with aluminum prices [29]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, the domestic equity market strengthened, and copper prices continued to rise. LME copper 3M contract rose 2.02% to $11,665/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 92,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 275 tons to 162,550 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M premium fell to $23/ton. The weekly inventory of SHFE decreased by 0.9 tons to 8.9 tons, and the daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 tons to 3.1 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was stable at 170 yuan/ton, and the market supply was tight. The inventory in Guangdong increased, and the spot premium rose to 85 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 5,510 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: The expected reduction in production due to tight mine supply and the tightening of spot supply support copper prices to reach new historical highs. In the short term, copper prices may rise further under the expectation of policy easing. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,400 - $11,800/ton [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, precious metals and non - ferrous metals were strong, and aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum rose 0.45% to $2,900/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 22,165 yuan/ton. The open interest of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased significantly by 42,000 to 727,124 lots. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots in three regions decreased, and the inventory of aluminum rods in two regions also decreased. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline, and the market buying sentiment was weak. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 80 yuan/ton to the futures, and the trading sentiment was light. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.3 tons to 528,300 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount [7]. - **Strategy**: With the domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreasing, the high premium of US spot aluminum, the continuous decrease of LME aluminum ingot inventory at a relatively low level, combined with supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rise of copper prices, aluminum prices may strengthen further. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 22,000 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,870 - $2,930/ton [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Friday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.33% to 17,298 yuan/ton, and the total open interest for unilateral trading was 80,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead 3S rose $12.5 to $2,017.5/ton, and the total open interest was 174,500 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 17,175 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,125 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingots in SHFE was 16,078 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 105 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 10 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 243,550 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 119,225 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - 49.15 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 91.5 dollars/ton. The ex - exchange ratio of the SHFE and LME lead was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 157.21 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory decreased to 21,600 tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of lead ore is decreasing marginally, and the factory inventory is accumulating normally. The operating rates of primary and recycled lead are rising, and the downstream battery enterprises' operating rate is also increasing. Although the smelter's factory inventory is rising, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has decreased to a low level, and the deliverable products in circulation are relatively scarce. In the short term, lead prices are expected to be strong [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Friday, the SHFE zinc index rose 1.87% to 23,311 yuan/ton, and the total open interest for unilateral trading was 208,060 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME zinc 3S rose $56 to $3,116.5/ton, and the total open interest was 221,900 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingot was 23,130 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 75 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 55 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 45 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 120 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots in SHFE was 60,729 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis was 75 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 55,375 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 5,075 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 163 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 61.01 dollars/ton. The ex - exchange ratio of the SHFE and LME zinc was 1.062, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,383 yuan/ton. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 4,000 tons to 140,300 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, the good profits of zinc mines will turn into a definite increase in supply, and the oversupply cycle of the zinc industry remains unchanged, so the upward space is expected to be limited. In the short term, with the supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots narrowing and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly after breaking through the pressure level [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 5, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 316,230 yuan/ton, a 0.10% decrease from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts in SHFE increased by 185 tons to 6,576 tons. In terms of supply, the import of tin concentrate in China increased significantly in October, and the shortage of raw material supply was slightly alleviated. However, the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has worsened recently, disturbing tin ore transportation, and the market's concerns have increased. Media reported that the northern region of Nigeria will suspend all mining activities for six months. If implemented, it may further widen the supply gap of domestic tin ore. Historically, Nigeria exports about 700 metal tons of tin ore to China per month, accounting for about 4 - 5% of China's monthly tin production [13]. - **Strategy**: Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, the bargaining power is limited due to the low downstream inventory. Supply disruptions are the determining factor for short - term prices, so the probability of short - term tin price increase is high. It is recommended to go long at an appropriate time. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 340,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $40,000 - $44,000/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, nickel prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 117,790 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums of various brands were stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 4,900 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices were stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was $52.02/wet ton, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was $23/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was $52.7/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The decline of ferronickel prices slowed down, and the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 881 yuan/nickel point, with the average price unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Strategy**: The oversupply pressure of nickel remains large, but with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and make a decision after the ferronickel prices stabilize. The reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is $13,500 - $15,500/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On December 5, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 90,669 yuan, a 0.11% decrease from the previous working day and a 2.89% decrease within the week. The quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 90,200 - 91,600 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 100 yuan (- 0.11%) from the previous working day. The quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 89,200 - 89,700 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 0.11% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2601 contract was 92,160 yuan, a 1.64% decrease from the previous closing price and a 4.42% decrease within the week. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 2,000 yuan. The CIF quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was $1,135 - $1,180/ton, with the average price decreasing by 1.49% from the previous day and 4.93% within the week [19]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand mismatch in the domestic lithium carbonate market has not been reversed. The market's concerns about the sustainability of lithium mica production have been digested. The supply is less likely to have additional reduction, and the expectation of good consumption is strengthening. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate is 95,980 - 98,860 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 5, 2025, as of 15:00, the alumina index decreased by 1.99% to 2,607 yuan/ton, and the total open interest for unilateral trading was 673,000 lots, an increase of 21,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 2,740 yuan/ton, with a premium of 160 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $312/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 3 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Friday were 253,300 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the CIF price in Guinea remained at $70.5/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $68/ton [22]. - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, the shipment will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production reduction is strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,500 yuan/ton, a 0.60% increase (+ 75) on the day, and the unilateral open interest was 202,700 lots, a decrease of 4,455 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in Foshan market was 12,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50

玻璃目前仍处于估值偏低状态。随着产线陆续冷修及行业整体负荷下降，当前市场已基本实现 供需平衡，库存呈现逐步向下传导消化的趋势。然而从地产端来看，行业惯性下行压力仍存， 即便有政策托底，也难以扭转其负增长态势。 陈逸 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375135 cheny40@wkqh.cn 因此当前关注重点在于供给端能否实现有效出清。若通过下游负反馈与成本抬升挤压，促使部 分落后产能退出，同时反内卷及环保政策推动煤制气产线升级，则可能在短期内形成供给缺口。 在缺乏超预期变化的情况下，建议对玻璃市场仍以偏空思路对待。 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 专题报告 2025-12-08 玻璃：冷修减产落地，为何易跌难涨？ 郎志杰 黑色研究员 报告要点： 0755-233751212 langzj@wkqh.cn 黑色建材研究 | 玻璃 冷修减产落地，为何易跌难涨？ 11 月，国内玻璃行业陆续有多条产线停产检修。月初沙河地区 4 条生产线因推进"煤改气"项目而 停工，月底湖北地区亦有数条产线进入冷修，合计减少日熔量 6050 吨，约合 12.1 万重箱。然而， 市 ...

农产品早报 2025-12-08 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 上周五 CBOT 大豆下跌，巴西升贴水稳定，上周大豆到港成本窄幅震荡。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东 报 3010 元/吨，上周豆粕成交尚可、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 205.583 万吨，上 周压榨大豆 221.16 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.49 天环比上升 0.32 天。 杨泽元 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，然而东南部及阿根廷主产区预计降雨量持续较少，产区还未达 到一帆风顺。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情， 预计在南美天气没有出现显著问题背景下大豆到港成本仍然震 ...