Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The unexpected decline in the US PPI data has temporarily alleviated market concerns about US inflation. Combined with the weakening of the US non - farm employment data, the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has been further strengthened, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming US CPI data may affect the subsequent rate - cut amplitude and bring new fluctuations to the market [2][3]. - For various metals, their market trends are influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Each metal has its own trading strategy based on its specific situation. 3. Summary by Metal Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Review**: London gold rose 0.45% to $3639.81/oz, and London silver rose 0.57% to $41.14/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.07% to 97.81, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.044%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.06% to 7.1207. In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.21% to 835.16 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.47% to 9817 yuan/kg [2]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI annual rate was 2.6%, a new low since June, and the monthly rate was - 0.1%. The Trump administration's actions and the Fed's possible rate - cut probability are also important factors [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The unexpected decline in PPI and the weak labor market data have strengthened the market's expectation of rate cuts, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming CPI data may affect the rate - cut amplitude [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For Shanghai gold, continue to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; for Shanghai silver, consider lightly testing long positions based on the 5 - day moving average. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, and the LME copper closed at $10012/ton, up 0.96%. The LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.50 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 30.87 million tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and Peru's copper production in July increased year - on - year [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI and weak employment data have increased the market's expectation of rate cuts. The supply of copper is tight due to production accidents, and the domestic refined copper production in September is expected to decline, but imports increase. The terminal consumption is weak, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider laying out long positions after a callback, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2510 contract rose 10 yuan to 2915 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions decreased [12]. - **Important Information**: The approval of an Indian bauxite mining project was postponed, which may affect the production of an alumina plant. There were spot alumina procurement tenders by electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and the industry's average profit in August increased [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The oversupply of alumina is more obvious in the spot market, and the prices are falling. The supply is flowing from the north to the south, and the fundamental weakness remains. However, beware of the interference of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 40 to 20390 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - **Important Information**: Policy changes in the recycling of aluminum, such as tax refund and reverse invoicing compliance, have affected some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi. The industry's average cost and profit in August were calculated, and the inventory in some regions increased [17][18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the supply is tightening. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 20830 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions decreased [24]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and some overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of rate cuts is rising. The fundamentals are supportive with increased aluminum - water conversion rate, decreased ingot production, and improved downstream开工率. Overseas projects' progress needs attention [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price will fluctuate with the external market in the short term. Consider going long after a callback. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc rose 0.72% to $2887.5/ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.34% to 22245 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average [29]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance range for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The domestic zinc inventory increased, and a company's production data was disclosed [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weak, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME inventory is decreasing and has a certain support for the price [31][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and consider lightly laying out short positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.53% to $1988.5/ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.03% to 16845 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead inventory increased, and a battery manufacturer planned to expand production, and a smelter was about to resume production [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and shutdown of domestic lead smelters due to losses and weak consumption may lead to a weak supply - demand pattern in the short term, and the price will continue to fluctuate [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may move sideways in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose $65 to $15170/ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 290 to 120780 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained stable [39]. - **Important Information**: SMM predicted the increase of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore prices, and national economic and social development policies were reported [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weak US employment data and high supply growth rate limit the upward space of nickel prices, and the price trend is weak [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [40][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract rose 20 to 12845 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported. The inventory in Foshan decreased [44]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel deep - processing project was approved, and the market was worried about recession risks despite the Fed's expected rate cut [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's expected rate cut in September and weak domestic consumption growth, combined with supply pressure, are expected to keep the stainless - steel price in a wide - range fluctuation pattern [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 1.58% to 8665 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [47][49]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state. The low inventory of manufacturers and high acceptance of high - price silicon by downstream enterprises provide support for price increases. The silicon industry conference may bring good news [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract fell 4.40% to 52885 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of some products decreased [52]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported. The silicon wafer production in September increased, and the polysilicon production was expected to remain stable. The industry's total inventory was high [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but the short - term 11th contract may face a callback due to factors such as futures premium and concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation. After a callback and stabilization, long positions are recommended [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in long positions after a callback and stabilization, conduct reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [54]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract fell 3620 to 70720 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial carbonate decreased [56]. - **Important Information**: Shanghai's new energy power - grid price reform policy and national fiscal policy information were reported [56][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is still tight in the short term, and the price has technical support. However, the long - term oversupply is difficult to reverse [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.93% to 271990 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable. The trading volume was acceptable [60]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and the domestic refined tin production in August decreased [60][62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI has strengthened the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the traditional consumption season may be postponed. The LME and domestic inventories have changed [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price will be boosted in the short term due to the strengthened Fed rate - cut expectation. Wait and see for options [63].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 9 月 11 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8336 | 80 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8536 | | | | 8656 | 8486 | | 320 | 0 | 200 | 0 | 150 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 9330 | 86 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9290 | | | | 9330 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Asian high - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in the near - term, but supply pressure in Q3 is less than expected due to factors like Russian refinery bombings, reduced Mexican exports, and low Middle - East exports. High - sulfur seasonal power generation demand is falling, but feedstock demand is supported. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuously falling spot premium, with rising supply and no specific demand drivers [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - On September 11, 2025, FU主力 was 2802, up 16 from the previous day; its position was 202,000 lots, up 6,000 lots; FU仓单 remained at 101,500 tons. LU主力 was 3374, down 9; its position was 75,000 lots, up 1,000 lots; LU仓单 remained at 10,020 tons. The spread between FU10 - 1 was 36, down 5; LU11 - 12 was 8, down 1; LU - FU主力价差 was 572, down 25; FU01 - 外盘12 was 7.1, up 1.0; LU11 - 外盘10 was 8.7, down 1.4 [3]. Part 2: Market Research and Judgment - **Market Overview**: As of September 8, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah was 7.095 million barrels, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.546 million barrels [6]. - **Quotation Research and Judgment**: High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in the near - term, but supply pressure in Q3 is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuously falling spot premium, with rising supply and no specific demand drivers. Pay attention to new high - sulfur warehouse receipts and inventory digestion, as well as low - sulfur quota adjustment and issuance [7]. - **Other Information**: FU仓单 and LU仓单 remained unchanged from the previous day. In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Sep/Oct spread changed from 0.6 to 0.4 dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread changed from 2.3 to 2.0 dollars/ton [8]. Part 3: Related Attached Figures - The report provides six figures, including Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur spreads, LSFO - GO, and high - and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [10].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2][3] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [2] - Researcher's Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [2] - Researcher's Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [2] Group 2: Data Futures Disk | Futures | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Increase/Decrease Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK604 | 7868 | -10 | -0.13% | 18 | 500.00% | 435 | 0.93% | | PK510 | 7894 | 18 | 0.23% | 7,767 | 8.34% | 25,643 | -7.08% | | PK601 | 7824 | -22 | -0.28% | 6,322 | -16.91% | 36,770 | 1.19% | [3] Spot and Basis | Spot | Henan Nanyang | Shandong Jining | Shandong Linyi | Rizhao Peanut Meal | Rizhao Soybean Meal | Peanut Oil | Rizhao First - Grade Soybean Oil | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Today's Quote | 9000 | 8400 | 8400 | 3350 | 2990 | 14780 | 8410 | | Change | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -30 | | Basis | 1106 | 506 | 506 | Soybean Meal - Peanut Meal | 0 | Peanut Oil - Soybean Oil | 6370 | [3] Import Price - Sudanese Rice: 8500 yuan/ton, no change - Senegalese Rice: Information incomplete, 0 change [3] Spread | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK01 - PK04 | -44 | -12 | PK04 - PK10 | -26 | -28 | PK10 - PK01 | 70 | 40 | [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China have declined. In the Northeast, Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts are 3.9 yuan/jin, stable; Liaoning Changtu is 3.95 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. In Henan, Baisha common peanuts are 4.3 - 4.4 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin; Shandong Junan is 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin. Imported Sudanese refined new rice is 8150 yuan/ton, Senegalese oil - used peanuts are 7600 - 7700 yuan/ton, stable. Peanut spot is expected to be relatively weak in the short term [5] - Most peanut oil mills have stopped purchasing. Before stopping, the mainstream transaction price was 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills is 8050 yuan/ton. Soybean oil and peanut oil prices are stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14800 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [5][8] - By - products: Rizhao soybean meal spot is weak, at 2980 yuan/ton, stable. The unit protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is high, and peanut meal is weak in the short term, with 48 - protein peanut meal at 3260 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Peanut 11 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Those looking to bottom - fish can try Peanut 05 [11] - Monthly Spread: Wait and see [12] - Options: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figure 1: Shandong Peanut Spot Price (yuan/ton) - Figure 2: Peanut Oil Mill Pressing Profit (yuan/ton) - Figure 3: Peanut Oil Price (yuan/ton) - Figure 4: Basis between Peanut Spot and Continuous Contracts (yuan/ton) - Figure 5: Spread between Peanut 10 - 1 Contracts (yuan/ton) - Figure 6: Spread between Peanut 1 - 4 Contracts (yuan/ton) [15][21][24]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Corn Starch Daily Report [2] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [6] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [6] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [6] Group 2: Data Futures Disk - C2601: Closing price 2172, up 2 (0.09%), volume 112,026 (-43.81%), open interest 435,154 (3.08%) [3] - C2605: Closing price 2240, unchanged (0.00%), volume 16,051 (30.54%), open interest 81,333 (1.19%) [3] - C2509: Closing price 2302, up 17 (0.74%), volume 691 (DIV/0!), open interest 11,759 (0.68%) [3] - CS2601: Closing price 2497, down 5 (-0.20%), volume 17,752 (-24.92%), open interest 60,779 (4.53%) [3] - CS2605: Closing price 2584, down 4 (-0.15%), volume 346 (-53.18%), open interest 1,002 (0.40%) [3] - CS2509: Closing price 2502, unchanged (0.00%), volume 0 (DIV/0!), open interest 1,501 (0.00%) [3] Spot and Basis - Corn: Qinggang 2220 (unchanged), Jiajishenghua 2180 (unchanged), Zhucheng Xingmao 2420 (-6), Shouguang 2324 (-30), Jinzhou Port 2310 (unchanged), Nantong Port 2420 (unchanged), Guangdong Port 2450 (unchanged) [3] - Starch: Longfeng 2700 (unchanged), COFCO 2750 (unchanged), Cargill 2800 (unchanged), Yufeng 2990 (unchanged), Jinyumi 2850 (unchanged), Zhucheng Xingmao 2940 (unchanged), Hengren Gongmao 2810 (unchanged) [3] Spreads - Corn Inter - delivery: C01 - C05 -68 (up 2), C05 - C09 -62 (-17), C09 - C01 130 (up 15) [3] - Starch Inter - delivery: CS01 - CS05 -87 (-1), CS05 - CS09 82 (-4), CS09 - CS01 5 (up 5) [3] - Cross - variety: CS09 - C09 200 (-17), CS01 - C01 325 (-7), CS05 - C05 344 (-4) [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Corn - US corn prices have fallen, but there may be a rebound due to potential downward adjustment of US corn yield. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the December Brazilian import price at 2116 yuan. The northern port closing price is stable at around 2310 yuan, and the spot price in the northeast corn - producing area is relatively strong. The supply in North China has increased, leading to a decline in the spot price, and the price difference between northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price in North China is weak, and the price difference between wheat and corn is small, so wheat continues to be a substitute. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. Due to recent imports and domestic corn auctions, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline. It is estimated that by the end of September, the North China corn price may reach 2200 yuan/ton, and the price in Heilongjiang may be below 2100 yuan/ton [5][7] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the Shandong corn spot price is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is also weak. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased to 122.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.9 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 6.98% and a year - on - year increase of 40.3%. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The average income from by - products in the past few years has been over 600 yuan, and today the by - product contribution in Shandong is 630 yuan (670 yuan in Heilongjiang). The by - product price is still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The North China corn price is stable in the short term, while the northeast corn price is relatively weak. In the medium and long term, due to weak starch demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. Today, the 01 starch contract has followed the corn price in a weak shock. The North China corn price still has room to fall by early October, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The loss of North China deep - processing plants will expand, and it is expected that the 01 starch contract on the short - term disk will continue to be in a weak shock [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For the US corn, there is support at 400 cents per bushel. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for the 01 corn contract. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11] Group 5: Corn Option Strategies - Spot - holding enterprises can close out their short positions in corn call options, or they can try to gradually sell at high prices in the short term and conduct rolling operations [14] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes six figures, namely the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 01 contract [16][17][21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On September 11, 2025, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decline of 0.08%. The asphalt market lacks obvious drivers, with short - term supply being tight and demand being stable month - on - month. In a situation of weak supply and demand, refinery inventories are rising steadily, and social inventories are steadily decreasing. Spot prices are expected to run weakly, and crack spreads are dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [5][8] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2511 (main contract) price was 3463 yuan/ton on September 11, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day; BU2512 was 3413 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.41%; BU2601 was 3390 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.41%. SC2510 was 489.2 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.62%. Brent first - line was 67.09, down 0.04% [2] - The main contract position was 253,000 lots, up 8,000 lots or 3.27% from the previous day; the trading volume was 186,000 lots, up 36,000 lots or 23.94%. The number of warehouse receipts was 64,460 tons, down 400 tons or 0.62% [2] Basis and Calendar Spreads - BU12 - 01 was 23 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; BU11 - 12 was 50 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or - 1.96%. The Shandong - main contract basis was 257 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or - 5.17%; the East China - main contract basis was 137 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or - 9.27%; the South China - main contract basis was 87 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or - 28.10% [2] Industrial Chain Spot Prices - The Shandong market price was 3540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the East China market price was 3550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the South China market price was 3500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or - 0.57% [2] - Shandong gasoline was 7557 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.13%; Shandong diesel was 6478 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.14%; Shandong petroleum coke was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The diluted asphalt discount was - 6 yuan/ton, unchanged. The exchange - rate mid - price was 7.1034, down 0.04% [2] Spreads and Profits - The asphalt refinery profit was - 32.57 yuan/ton, up 6.29 yuan/ton or 16.18% from the previous day; the refined oil comprehensive profit was 390.01 yuan/ton, up 10.59 yuan/ton or 2.79% [2] - BU - SC crack spread was - 550.81 yuan/ton, down 9.51 yuan/ton or - 1.76%. Gasoline spot - Brent was 1002.36 yuan/ton, up 12.39 yuan/ton or 1.25%; diesel spot - Brent was 737.49 yuan/ton, up 11.51 yuan/ton or 1.58% [2] Group 4: Market Analysis Market Overview - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3650 - 3800 yuan/ton. Crude oil and the futures market continued to be favorable, and the demand for terminal projects increased, which was beneficial to the firmness of asphalt prices. However, most traders were executing low - price contracts, and the short - term price increase space was limited [5] - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3650 - 3700 yuan/ton. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical resumed asphalt production, and the supply increased. Due to insufficient demand, the shipping price of a Sinopec refinery was expected to be lowered, and the short - term price might show a weak trend [5] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price fell 25 yuan/ton to 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. Affected by typhoon and rainfall, the shipment was average, and the price of a PetroChina refinery was lowered by 50 yuan/ton. In the future, the rainfall might decrease, and the price might be stable [5][6] Market Outlook - The supply of asphalt was short - term tight, and the demand was stable month - on - month. In a situation of weak supply and demand, refinery inventories were rising steadily, and social inventories were steadily decreasing. The asphalt itself lacked obvious drivers, the spot price was expected to run weakly, and the crack spread was dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract was expected to be between 3350 - 3500 yuan/ton [8] Group 5: Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of BU main - contract closing price, main - contract position, East China asphalt market price, Shandong asphalt market price, Shandong refinery gasoline price, and Shandong refinery diesel price, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [11][13][16]

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 9 月 10 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2407（+10/+0.42%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2120 元/吨，北线报价 2110 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2160 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2110 元/吨，山西地区报价 2210 元/吨，河南地区报价 2290 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2330 元/吨，鲁北报价 2270 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2300 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2220 元/吨，云贵报价 2200 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2290 元/吨，宁波报价 2280 元/吨，广州报价 2280 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 9 月 10 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 155.03 万吨，较上一期数据增加 12.26 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 8.72 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 3.54 万吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率提升，需求下滑，原料煤价格持续回落， 西北主流甲醇企业竞拍价格坚挺，煤制甲醇利润在 650 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean/Meal**: The decline of US soybeans reflects the impact of demand, but the downside space is limited. Brazilian soybeans also have limited deep - decline space. In China, there is still supply pressure and inventory pressure on soybean meal [2][4][6]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the global sugar market is expected to enter a stockpiling stage, and prices are expected to rebound in the short - term after falling to a low level. In the domestic market, although domestic sugar inventory is low, a large amount of imported sugar may put some pressure on prices [11]. - **Oils and Fats**: Overnight, US soybean oil fell, and the domestic oil market followed the weakness. Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase production and stockpile in August, while Indonesian inventory is low. US soybeans have a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of stockpiling, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory [19]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures are falling, but there is still room for rebound. In China, the supply of corn is still relatively short, and the spot price of corn may continue to fall [23][28]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply pressure of pigs has decreased, but due to the relatively high inventory and high slaughter weight, there is still some pressure on prices [34]. - **Peanuts**: The supply of peanuts is still small, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [38]. - **Eggs**: The supply - side pressure has been alleviated, but the over - supply pattern has not changed. The demand is expected to increase slightly before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day [46]. - **Apples**: The 10 - month contract of apples may fall in the short - term, but the decline space is limited. The market may focus on the excellent fruit rate [55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: As new cotton enters the acquisition stage, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is expected to have a limited impact on the market [59]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1048.5 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.1% to 292 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: The estimated US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.271 billion bushels, and the estimated yield is 53.3 bushels/acre. As of September 7, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 2.44 million tons, and soybean meal imports were 3.63 million tons. In Argentina, there may be a new political crisis. As of September 5, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3039 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.76% [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long positions can be arranged at low prices for distant - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal. Expand the MRM05 spread. Buy call options [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar both rose [8]. - **Related Information**: In the first week of September, Brazil exported 769,000 tons of sugar and molasses. The 2025/26 German beet refined sugar production is expected to decrease by 4.9% to 4.4 million tons. Domestic processing sugar prices are stable with a slight decline [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [12][13][15]. Oils and Fats - **Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil both fell [15]. - **Related Information**: As of August 31, 209,033 oil palm small farmers in Malaysia obtained MSPO certification. The estimated US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.271 billion bushels, and the estimated ending inventory is 288 million bushels. Ukraine's rapeseed exports may be suspended for at least a week. Canada's rapeseed inventory decreased, while exports increased [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the callback and then try to go long in batches. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Conditions**: CBOT corn futures fell [23]. - **Related Information**: The main reason for the decline is the start of the US corn harvest and traders' position - closing before the USDA monthly report. The US corn main - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the next 6 - 10 days. As of September 7, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 68%, and the harvest rate was 4%. The North Port acquisition price is stable, while the North China spot price is falling [24][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the 12 - month US corn contract on dips. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for the 01 corn contract. Expand the spread between 11 - month corn and starch lightly [29][30]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Pig prices are generally stable to declining, and the prices of piglets and sows are falling [33][34]. - **Related Information**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both decreased, and the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.2% [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on the near - month contracts on rallies. Reverse - arbitrage the LH15 contract. Buy call options for distant - month contracts [35]. Peanuts - **Market Conditions**: The average price of national peanut kernels is stable with a slight increase, the operating rate of oil mills is low, and the prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable [36][37]. - **Related Information**: As of September 4, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 11 - month and 01 - month peanut contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Try to go long on the 05 - month peanut contract lightly. Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [39][41]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas and main sales areas rose. The national mainstream egg prices are stable with some increases [43][44]. - **Related Information**: In August, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 3% in the week of August 28. The production and circulation inventories decreased [45][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report. Apples - **Market Conditions**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the export volume increased. The spot price is stable [49][50]. - **Related Information**: The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia decreased by 0.1 yuan/jin compared with last week [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [55]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Conditions**: ICE US cotton rose [56]. - **Related Information**: In August, China's textile and clothing exports decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year. As of September 8, the ICE deliverable No. 2 cotton contract inventory remained unchanged. As of September 6, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 86.9% [57][58]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly weakly. Go short on rallies. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [59].

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 有色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 10 日星期三 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2510 合约收于 79790 元/吨，涨幅 0.1%，沪铜指数减仓 3280 手至 48.59 万 手。 2.现货：进口货源继续低价出货，沪铜升水继续走低，报升水 60 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 30 元/吨。广东库存 6 连降，持货商本欲挺价出货但下游接受能力一般，现货升水持平昨 日，报升水 40 元/吨。华北由于高铜价抑制消费，现货升贴水下行，报贴水 150 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1.根据美国政府周二公布的初步基准修订数据，截至 3 月的一年间的非农就业人数下修 91.1 万，相当于每月平 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. It points out that due to the weakness of the US labor market and potential tariff impacts, the "stagflation-like" risk remains, and precious metals are expected to maintain a strong performance at high levels. For other metals, factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomics, and geopolitical events are considered to determine their market trends and provide corresponding trading strategies [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold initially broke through the 3670 mark but then dropped, closing down 0.32% at $3624.17 per ounce; London silver closed down 1.13% at $40.86 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract reached a historical high and closed up 0.11% at 832.6 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed up 1.08% at 9760 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index closed up 0.33% at 97.77, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.0799%, and the RMB against the US dollar closed up 0.06% at 7.125 [3]. - **Important Information**: The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case; the US economy may have added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending in March than previously estimated; the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 93%, and Israel launched an attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weakness of the US labor market and geopolitical events led to the volatile trend of gold. Despite short - term fluctuations, precious metals are expected to remain strong at high levels due to the "stagflation - like" risk [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing long positions in gold against the 5 - day moving average; take profit on existing long positions in silver at high prices. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed down 0.14% at 79,600 yuan per ton, and the LME copper closed up 0.1% at $9916.5 per ton. The LME inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,200 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1917 tons to 307,600 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000; Anglo American agreed to merge with Teck Resources; a mining accident in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia led to the suspension of operations [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's 9 - month interest rate cut is confirmed, but the market's concern about recession has increased. The supply of refined copper in September is expected to decline, and the inventory in non - US regions is accumulating slowly. The consumption shows a weakening trend, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term correction, pay attention to the support level of 78,500 yuan per ton and consider buying after the price stabilizes. Conduct cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage of buying 10 and selling 12. Wait and see for options [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc closed down 0.21% at $2867 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 closed down 0.32% at 22,130 yuan per ton. The domestic spot market trading was average [10]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT issued the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025; the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased; Huayu Mining completed a certain amount of mining and metal production in the first half of 2025 [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weaker than expected, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Existing short positions can continue to be held, beware of the impact of funds on zinc prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [12]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead closed down 0.6% at $1978 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 closed down 0.56% at 16,820 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [14]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased; a lead - acid battery manufacturer in the southwest plans to start production in October; a large recycled lead smelter in the east is about to resume production [14][15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and suspension of production of domestic recycled lead smelters have increased, and the consumption is weak. The short - term supply and demand may maintain a double - weak pattern, and the Shanghai lead price will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term Shanghai lead price may move sideways. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][18]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price dropped to $15,105 per ton, and the inventory increased to 218,070 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2510 dropped to 120,400 yuan per ton [19]. - **Important Information**: Auric Mining completed a major acquisition of nickel mining rights [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The poor US employment data and the continuous increase in LME inventory indicate an oversupply of refined nickel in China. The supply growth rate in September is higher, and the upward space of nickel price is limited [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to be weak and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract dropped to 12,835 yuan per ton, and the spot market prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [23]. - **Important Information**: The US stainless steel price remained stable in August due to tariffs, and potential trade quota agreements may bring new variables [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September is rising, but the market is more worried about recession. The domestic consumption growth is limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless steel price will maintain a wide - range shock. Wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8410 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The spot price was stable [26]. - **Important Information**: A 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project in Karamay is under investment promotion [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon remain in a tight - balance state. The price increase space is greater than the decrease space. The futures may continue to correct, and buying can be considered near the August low [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: There may be a short - term correction, buy after a full correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options and participate in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts [27][28]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 53,520 yuan per ton, down 0.73%. The spot prices of some types of polysilicon decreased [30]. - **Important Information**: The installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the US in the first half of 2025 accounted for 75% of the new power installed capacity [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for polysilicon in September is about 116,000 tons, and the production is expected to be around 130,000 tons. The long - term price trend is upward, but the short - term may correct [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in the correction band with a light position and short - term, and participate in long positions after the correction stabilizes. Conduct reverse arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts and buy a wide - straddle option for profit - taking [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract dropped to 72,900 yuan per ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate remained unchanged [34]. - **Important Information**: The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers plans to establish a new energy vehicle battery branch; CATL launched a new battery technology; the export of new energy passenger vehicles in August increased year - on - year [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market interprets that CATL may resume production early, and the long - term trend will return to the logic of oversupply [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 269,040 yuan per ton, down 0.28%. The spot market trading was okay, but the market was skeptical about short - term consumption improvement [38]. - **Important Information**: The US non - farm employment was revised down [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The poor US non - farm data led to a weak trend of tin. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to recover late. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and other factors [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price may be weak and volatile. Wait and see for options [39].