Report Information - Report Name: Iron Ore Daily Report - Date: December 30, 2025 - Industry: Iron Ore Report Highlights Futures Market - DCE01 closed at 809.0, down 7.0 from the previous day [2] - DCE05 closed at 789.0, down 7.5 from the previous day [2] - DCE09 closed at 767.0, down 6.5 from the previous day [2] Spot Market - PB powder (60.8%) price increased by 7 to 800 [2] - Newman powder price increased by 7 to 802 [2] - Macarthur powder price increased by 7 to 802 [2] Spread - I01 - I05 spread was 20.0, up 0.5 from the previous day [2] - I05 - I09 spread was 22.0, down 1.0 from the previous day [2] - I09 - I01 spread was -42.0, up 0.5 from the previous day [2] Import Profit - Carajás fines import profit increased by 11 to -14 [2] - Newman powder import profit decreased by 1 to 53 [2] - PB powder import profit decreased by 1 to 3 [2] Index - Platts 62% iron ore price increased by 1.0 to 108.9 [2] - Platts 65% iron ore price increased by 1.0 to 121.9 [2] - Platts 58% iron ore price increased by 1.1 to 94.7 [2] Price Difference - Carajás fines - PB powder price difference increased by 11 to 88 [2] - Newman powder - Jinbuba powder price difference remained unchanged at 45 [2] - Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference increased by 11 to 135 [2] Base Difference - The optimal deliverable - 01 contract base difference was 16 for Carajás fines [2] - The optimal deliverable - 05 contract base difference was 35 for Carajás fines [2] - The optimal deliverable - 09 contract base difference was 58 for Carajás fines [2] Inner-Outer Spread - SGX main - DCE01 spread was 0.4, up 0.8 from the previous day [2] - SGX main - DCE05 spread was 2.9, up 1.0 from the previous day [2] - SGX main - DCE09 spread was 5.9, up 1.1 from the previous day [2]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Black Metal Daily Report, Ferroalloy Daily Report [1][3] - Date: December 30, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5750, daily change +74, weekly change +102, trading volume 232982 (-85107), open interest 231184 (-544) [2] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5942, daily change +80, weekly change +120, trading volume 262830 (-28054), open interest 278271 (+14109) [2] Spot - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Jiangsu, and Tianjin increased by 50 yuan/ton, in Qinghai by 30 yuan/ton [2] - Manganese Silicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia increased by 60 yuan/ton, in Ningxia by 50 yuan/ton, in Guangxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu and Tianjin by 30 yuan/ton [2] Basis/Spread - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia - Main contract -350 (-24, -52), Ningxia - Main contract -350 (-24, -52), Qinghai - Main contract -420 (-44, -22), Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia 350 (0, 0), SF - SM spread -192 (-6, -18) [2] - Manganese Silicon: Inner Mongolia - Main contract -292 (-20, -40), Ningxia - Main contract -372 (-30, -90), Guangxi - Main contract -222 (-60, -70), Guangxi - Inner Mongolia 70 (-40, -30) [2] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump 41.5 (0, 0), South African semi - carbonate 34.8 (+0.1, +0.3), Gabon lump 42.5 (0, -0.3) [2] - Blue Coke Small Material: Shaanxi 770 (0, 0), Ningxia 840 (0, -30), Inner Mongolia 750 (0, 0) [2] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and cost push, short - term volatility is bullish [5][6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] Key Points for Each Product - Silicon Ferrosilicon: On the 30th, spot prices rose 30 - 50 yuan/ton. Supply decreased slightly due to poor profits. Demand is expected to increase after blast furnace复产 in January. Costs are stable. Market sentiment is positive, short - term volatility is bullish [5] - Manganese Silicon: On the 30th, manganese ore spot was stable to strong, and manganese silicon spot rose 20 - 60 yuan/ton. Supply will be stable with new capacity coming on - stream. Demand will be supported by blast furnace复产 in January. Costs are firm due to falling port inventories. Market sentiment is positive, short - term volatility is bullish [5] Group 4: Important Information - On the 30th, Tianjin Port's Australian lump (Mn41.2%) was quoted at 41.5 yuan/ton degree, semi - carbonate (Mn36.6%, Fe4.6%) at 35 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump (Mn47%) at 43 yuan/ton degree, and CML Australian lump (Mn47%) at 44 yuan/ton degree [7] - In December, there were 65 silicon ferrosilicon enterprises in production with 217 submerged arc furnaces. The average monthly start - up rate was 44.58% (-2.47% compared to November), and the output was expected to be 46.45 tons (-0.41%, -4.87% YoY). The cumulative output in 2025 was 552.69 tons (-4.71 tons, -0.84% compared to 2024) [7] Group 5: Cost and Profit Silicon Ferrosilicon | Region | Production Cost (yuan/ton) | Profit (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Inner Mongolia | 5492 | -172 | | Ningxia | 5593 | -293 | | Shaanxi | 5577 | -307 | | Qinghai | 5911 | -631 | | Gansu | 5759 | -459 | [14] Manganese Silicon | Region | Production Cost (yuan/ton) | Profit (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Inner Mongolia | 5778 | -188 | | Ningxia | 5880 | -360 | | Guangxi | 6231 | -531 | | Guizhou | 6119 | -469 | [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, without the disturbance of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the nickel surplus is expected to slightly narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by another 30,000 tons, intensifying inventory pressure. The surplus is concentrated in low - cost deliverable goods, which may force nickel prices to seek support from the wet - process cost. There are risks such as Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy and the potential change of the Russian nickel inventory status. The trading logic is that there may be a catch - up opportunity in the first half of the year if the macro and industrial factors resonate, but considering the significant annual surplus, short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [5][100]. - The recommended trading strategies are a unilateral strategy of rising first and then falling with a higher bottom, and a bull spread strategy for options [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - In 2025, the nickel price's oscillation center moved down after the trade - war and hit a 5 - year low in December, then rebounded due to Indonesia's policy. The price difference between the highest and lowest points in the year was about 20%, and the volatility significantly narrowed compared to the previous year. Stainless steel prices followed nickel prices but were more rigidly supported by Indonesia's nickel - iron cost, showing a narrow - range oscillation due to weak terminal demand [4][10]. - In the first quarter, the market speculated on Indonesia and the Philippines' nickel ore policies, driving up nickel prices. After the policies were implemented and some restrictions were lifted, the market sentiment eased. After the US announced reciprocal tariffs in early April, nickel prices dropped by over 10%, then recovered. From May, new nickel production capacity was continuously released, but inventory accumulation was slow due to inventory invisibility. In October, nickel inventory started to accumulate rapidly, and in November, short - selling funds entered the market, driving nickel prices to a 5 - year low. In December, Indonesia's plan to tighten the nickel ore quota in 2026 and the overall rise of the non - ferrous metal sector led to a rebound in nickel prices [10][11]. Excess Concentration in Low - Cost Deliverable Goods, Beware of Indonesia's Policy Risk - **Supply Growth Concentrated in Wet - Process Lines, Fire - Process Almost Stagnant** - In 2025, the highest - growth segment in primary nickel supply was Indonesia's NPI production, but due to tightened fire - process smelting in Indonesia and the sluggish stainless - steel market, NPI growth was limited. In 2026, the growth rate is expected to be only 2.4%. Sulfuric - nickel production is expected to grow by 6.7% in 2026, and refined nickel demand, which can be used for perpetual warehouse receipts and has certain financial attributes, is expected to grow by 6.8% in 2026, becoming the highest - growth category [19]. - **Refined Nickel Growth at Home and Abroad**: In 2026, new production capacity in China and Indonesia will be put into operation as planned, with a total of 116,000 tons of new capacity from several companies. Some overseas enterprises will also expand production. In 2025, the estimated refined - nickel production increased by 5.7% to 1.084 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to increase by 6.8% to 1.157 million tons [20]. - **MHP Capacity Expansion in line with New Energy Trends**: Due to the depletion of high - grade nickel ore reserves and the Indonesian government's preference for wet - process smelting, MHP capacity is expanding. In 2025, Indonesia's estimated MHP production was about 445,000 tons, and in 2026, it is conservatively expected to grow by 28% to 570,000 tons. In contrast, the ice - nickel capacity increase in 2026 is only 83,000 tons. China's sulfuric - nickel production is expected to grow by 12.7% to 400,000 tons in 2026 [28][34]. - **NPI Growth Stagnant**: In 2025, Indonesia's NPI production increased by 22.6% to 1.8602 million tons, but in 2026, it is expected to grow by only 2.4% to around 1.9 million tons. China's NPI capacity has basically reached a low point, and the decline will narrow in 2026. The total NPI production in China and Indonesia is expected to grow by 1.5% to 2.166 million tons in 2026 [37]. - **Indonesia's Nickel Ore Quota Policy Risk Needs Attention** - The supply forecast for 2026 is based on the assumption of sufficient nickel ore. Since 2024, the quarterly nickel ore quota approval has led to tight supply, and the nickel ore price in March is often prone to rise. In 2026, the quota may be set at 250 million tons, which is lower than the 2025 level and the expected demand. However, there is flexibility in the quota adjustment, and if the quota remains at 250 million tons, Indonesia needs to import 70 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, which will increase production costs and may support the bottom of nickel prices [48][51]. Demand Hard to Find a Driver, Potential Bright Spots Exist - **Economic Growth Slows, Interest - Rate Cuts Benefit the Non - Ferrous Metal Sector** - In 2025, the global economic growth slowed, and it is expected to further slow to 3.1% in 2026. China's investment and real - estate sectors are weak, and the economy is still at the bottom. Although the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in 2026, which is beneficial for the financial attributes of non - ferrous metals, the overall economic environment has many concerns [61]. - **Stainless - Steel Supply - Demand in Tight Balance, Cost Expected to Rise** - **Stainless - Steel Demand Growth Moderate**: In 2026, China's domestic stainless - steel demand is expected to grow by 4% due to factors such as the real - estate cycle at the bottom and the continuation of consumer subsidies. Exports are expected to decline by 8% due to overseas "double - anti" policies and other factors [66][67]. - **Limited New Stainless - Steel Production Capacity, Output Adjusted by Profit**: In 2026, new stainless - steel production capacity is limited. Nickel and chromium raw material prices may rise due to policy factors, which will increase stainless - steel costs. If demand improves, the price center may move up; otherwise, it will suppress production capacity utilization [70][73]. - **Ternary - Battery Proportion Stabilizes, New Productivity Provides Potential Growth Points** - **New - Energy Vehicle Market Growth Slows**: In the domestic market, the new - energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2026 has both positive and negative effects, and the sales growth rate is expected to reach 16% to 1.78 million vehicles. In the overseas market, the US new - energy vehicle market is weak, while the European market is expected to maintain growth, and the global new - energy passenger - vehicle sales are expected to grow by 14% to 2.41 million vehicles in 2026 [81][86]. - **Ternary - Battery Proportion Drops below 20%, New Productivity as Potential Growth Points**: In the first 11 months of 2025, the proportion of ternary - battery loading in China's power - battery market dropped below 20%. In the future, the ternary - battery market needs high - nickel materials to break through, but it faces technical challenges. It may become a potential growth point from 2027 - 2030 [90][96]. Supply - Demand Balance and Trading Strategy - Macroscopically, the loose monetary environment benefits the financial attributes of non - ferrous metals, but the economic environment has many concerns. Industrially, in 2025, the primary nickel surplus was 277,000 tons, and in 2026, it is expected to narrow to 245,000 tons without the impact of Indonesia's nickel ore quota. The refined - nickel surplus will increase by 30,000 tons, increasing inventory pressure. There are potential short - term upward risks, and there may be a catch - up opportunity in the first half of the year. Considering the annual surplus, short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [100].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently dominated by bearish factors. Supply is abundant while demand lacks highlights, leading to a continuous decline in spot prices. It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will maintain a weak and stable-to-declining oscillatory pattern next week [4]. - There is a high probability that the price of aluminum oxide will decline. The market supply is increasing with the outflow of expired warehouse receipts from Xinjiang, and the demand side has a high inventory level, reducing the need for further large - scale spot purchases [17]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Supply**: The supply pressure of the chlor - alkali industry remains. The operating rate of chlor - alkali plants is high, with the national sample enterprise operating load rate at 89.84% and a weekly output of 869,500 tons. Maintenance losses are decreasing, and there will be no large - scale maintenance except for a few enterprises in the future, indicating sufficient supply [4]. - **Demand**: Demand is weak, and downstream support has weakened. The operating capacity of the core downstream aluminum oxide industry has dropped to 81.37%, and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber has slightly decreased. Downstream and traders are not very enthusiastic about purchasing, mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude and making purchases based on rigid demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Inventory performance varies. In Shandong, inventory decreased by 18.12% due to price - for - volume strategies, but in East China, the overall inventory increased by 2.83%, showing inventory accumulation pressure in some regions [4]. - **Profit**: Profits have shrunk significantly. Affected by the decline in liquid caustic soda prices, the ECU profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has decreased significantly. In Shandong, the profit of enterprises with self - owned power plants decreased by 25.90% month - on - month, and the loss of enterprises without self - owned power plants widened to 146.97 yuan per ton [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Caustic soda shows a weak trend; Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being; Options: Wait and see for the time being [5]. Core Logic Analysis - **Aluminum Oxide in Shandong**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large - scale aluminum oxide plants in Shandong is at a high level, and the price continues to decline. From November 14 to December 5, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major aluminum oxide plants in Shandong was continuously reduced [7][9]. - **Aluminum Oxide Production and Market**: The overall operation of national aluminum oxide enterprises is relatively stable. As of Friday, the national built - in capacity of aluminum oxide is 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 95.90 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 83.6%. The inventory of aluminum oxide at the electrolytic aluminum enterprise end continues to rise, and the market supply is increasing. It is expected that the price of aluminum oxide will decline rapidly next week [17]. - **Caustic Soda Operation**: From December 5 - 11, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The load in North China and East China increased slightly, while that in Southwest and Central China decreased [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Price**: The report provides price trend charts of caustic soda futures, 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, flake caustic soda, as well as charts of caustic soda variety spreads, regional spreads, and profit [22][25][28][30][32][35][38]. - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the warehouse inventory of national fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 457,100 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 9.46% and a year - on - year increase of 50.1%. The inventory performance varies by region [13]. - **Output**: Tianjin Bohua's 300,000 - ton caustic soda plant has been put into operation, and Gansu Yaowang Chemical Co., Ltd.'s 300,000 - ton caustic soda project has also been successfully put into operation, with a current daily output of 600 - 700 wet tons of 32% liquid caustic soda. The total additional capacity in 2025 is expected to be 2.1 million tons [52][53]. - **Plant Maintenance**: The report lists the maintenance situations of caustic soda plants in different regions, including the enterprise names, caustic soda capacities, and maintenance schedules [55]. - **Consumption**: The report provides charts of caustic soda demand, weekly consumption (including exports), and consumption of different types of caustic soda [57][58]. - **Aluminum Oxide Production Capacity**: There will be a large number of new aluminum oxide production capacity projects put into operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, especially in Guangxi. The new capacity will drive the demand for 50% and flake caustic soda in Shandong and other places [65][66]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: From September 12 - 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.52%, a week - on - week increase of 1.75% [67]. - **Printing and Dyeing Industry**: As of September 18, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions showed different trends, and the industry was generally stable with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [71]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: The report provides charts of caustic soda export volume, export price, export profit, and export destinations. In 2025, there is an estimated 4.5 million tons of new overseas aluminum oxide production capacity to be put into operation, and most of the new aluminum oxide plants in Indonesia have been put into operation, with caustic soda stockpiling completed [73][74][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of soda ash is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger next week. The new production capacity of soda ash will be concentrated at the end of the year, which will put pressure on next year. Although the demand side is weak, with the shift of positions, the price is expected to stabilize. [16] - The price of glass is also expected to be volatile and slightly stronger next week. The fundamentals of glass are still weak, but the downward price space is limited after the shift of positions. The supply - side contraction before the Spring Festival will determine the winter storage intensity. [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash output was 721,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons (-1.9%). The daily output was about 101,000 - 104,000 tons. The supply decreased due to the production reduction of some plants and increased slightly in Sichuan Hebang. The overall start - up rate decreased. [8] - The theoretical profit of the soda ash joint - alkali method in China was -41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was -66.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. [8] 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 716,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.3%. The apparent demand for heavy soda was 409,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%), and that for light soda was 307,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15%). [11] - The daily output of float glass was 155,000 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 88,700 tons, both remaining stable week - on - week. The futures price continued to fall this week, and the mid - stream shipments decreased significantly. [11] 3.1.3 Inventory - The upstream soda ash factory inventory increased to 1.499 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons. Among them, the heavy soda inventory decreased by 19,000 tons, and the light soda inventory increased by 24,000 tons. [15] - The mid - stream inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 10.8% to 450,000 tons. The downstream float glass enterprise soda ash inventory increased slightly. [13][15] 3.1.4 Price Forecast - It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable after the shift of positions and show a volatile and slightly stronger trend next week. For unilateral trading, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see. [16] 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - The daily output of float glass was 155,000 tons, and there were currently 218 operating production lines. The weekly average profit of float glass with different fuels varied. There are still cold - repair production lines to be implemented this month, and it is expected that the daily melting volume of glass will drop to about 150,000 tons to achieve supply - demand balance. [19] 3.2.2 Demand - The demand side is still weak. The orders of sample processing enterprises decreased week - on - week. The enthusiasm for purchasing goods was still limited due to factors such as tight funds. The industry inventory increased slightly. [22] - As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.7 days, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. [22] 3.2.3 Price Forecast - This week, the glass shifted positions to the 05 contract, and the futures price stopped falling and stabilized. After the shift of positions, considering future expectations and supply reduction, the downward price space is limited. It is expected that the price will be volatile and slightly stronger next week. For unilateral trading, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see. [23] 3.3 Other Related Data 3.3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Price Data - The spot and futures prices of soda ash and glass, as well as the basis and price spreads, are provided in detail, showing the price changes in different periods. [27][129] 3.3.2 Production and Consumption Structure Data - The production and consumption structures of soda ash and glass in different years are presented, including production capacity, output, and consumption distribution. [62][123][139][171] 3.3.3 Related Industry Data - Data on the production, import and export, and demand of related industries such as photovoltaic glass, light - alkali demand industries (carbonate lithium, etc.), and some beverage industries are provided. [217][225][237][244]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the supply - side of urea will see accelerated release of new production capacity, with over 6.5 million tons of new capacity expected to be put into operation, increasing the total domestic urea production capacity to 87 million tons by the end of 2026, and the daily output is expected to exceed 225,000 tons and reach a record high of 230,000 tons [5][168]. - The agricultural demand for urea is expected to peak after the Spring Festival and before the first half of the year. Overall, agricultural demand is stable, industrial demand is weak, and exports may become a key marginal variable for demand. The increase in export quotas in 2026 compared to 2025 will be a crucial factor affecting the market rhythm [5][169]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - In 2026, on the supply - side, new urea production capacity will continue to be released rapidly. On the demand - side, agricultural demand has a seasonal peak, and exports are a key variable [5]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Weak before the Spring Festival, strong in the first half of the year, and mainly weak in the second half, with export quotas affecting the market rhythm [6][169]. - Arbitrage: Short - term weakness in inter - period arbitrage, and long - term positive arbitrage opportunities after the Spring Festival [6][169]. - Options: The lower margin is between 1550 - 1600, and the upper margin is between 2100 - 2200 [6][170]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In 2025, the domestic mainstream urea ex - factory price showed an "N" shape. It bottomed out in January, rebounded around the Spring Festival, had short - term rebounds after the release of export quotas in April, and then declined due to weakened demand in July and rebounded again in October [11]. 3.2.2 Supply Analysis - China's urea production capacity entered a de - capacity cycle after peaking in 2015 and started positive growth in 2021 due to new capacity release [34]. - In 2025, the net increase in urea production capacity was 6.5 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to be about 6.5 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 7.9% [37][42]. - In 2025, the average daily urea production reached a new high, and the average daily production in 2026 is expected to exceed 210,000 tons in the second quarter [47][70]. - In 2026, coal prices will fluctuate within a range, and urea production profits will be further compressed. Demand growth may slow down, and high inventory may become normal. Attention should be paid to the winter maintenance of gas - head enterprises [57][67][75]. 3.2.3 Demand Analysis - Agricultural demand accounts for about 70% of urea demand, with seasonal characteristics. In 2025, China's grain production increased, and the demand for high - standard farmland showed steady growth [80][90][100]. - The price of urea has a significant comparative advantage over phosphate and potash fertilizers [103]. - Internationally, the total urea production capacity is expanding. India still has a large demand gap, and China's export quotas are expected to increase in 2026, with international prices affecting the export rhythm [112][121][125]. - The 2025/26 off - season storage policy continues the 2024/25 policy, and it is worth noting whether the rewards and punishments are linked to export quotas [136][140]. - Industrial demand for urea, mainly from the melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin industries, is expected to remain lackluster in 2026 [141][151]. - In 2026, the production of compound fertilizers will first rise and then fall, with different demand characteristics in different seasons [155][161]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Similar to the preface, in 2026, the supply - side will see new capacity release, and the demand - side will be affected by agricultural seasons and export quotas [168][169]. 3.3.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Weak before the Spring Festival, strong in the first half of the year, and mainly weak in the second half, with export quotas affecting the market rhythm [169]. - Arbitrage: Short - term weakness in inter - period arbitrage, and long - term positive arbitrage opportunities after the Spring Festival [169]. - Options: The lower margin is between 1550 - 1600, and the upper margin is between 2100 - 2200 [170].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 30 日 0 / 45 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：震荡不改上行趋势 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：市场突发调整，空单适度止盈 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面整体回落 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：内蒙糖厂已开始停机 | 产量预计略增 5 | | 油脂板块：商品情绪转弱，油脂反弹空间或有限 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货上涨，盘面高位震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力减少 | 盘面上涨较明显 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价有所回落 10 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：原料补库开启，钢价维持区间震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：驱动不明显，震荡运行 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 14 | | 铁合金：商品情绪回落，短期震荡运行 15 | | 金银：市场降温 金银大幅回调 16 | | --- | | 铂钯 ...

1. Report Date - The report is dated December 29, 2025 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,594.16, down 0.15%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 159,717 lots, a decrease of 53,242 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 361,642 lots, a decrease of 19,963 lots [4][5] - The main contract of IM fell 0.48% to close at 7,439 points. The main contract was at a discount of 155.16 points, a decrease of 22.03 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -9.28% [4][5] 2.2 Positions of Major Seats - In IM2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 34,563 lots, a decrease of 8,213 lots. The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 26,099 lots, a decrease of 1,845 lots, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 33,325 lots, a decrease of 2,930 lots [19] 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,639.37, down 0.38%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 96,159 lots, a decrease of 22,687 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 275,855 lots, a decrease of 12,050 lots [24][25] - The main contract of IF fell 0.43% to close at 4,610.2 points. The main contract was at a discount of 29.17 points, a decrease of 10.33 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -2.82% [24][25] 3.2 Positions of Major Seats - In IF2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 9,580 lots, a decrease of 955 lots. The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 9,064 lots, a decrease of 899 lots, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 7,797 lots, a decrease of 871 lots [38] 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 7,430.61, down 0.38%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 112,787 lots, a decrease of 36,757 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 275,763 lots, a decrease of 17,385 lots [43][44] - The main contract of IC fell 0.51% to close at 7,336.6 points. The main contract was at a discount of 94.01 points, a decrease of 23.17 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -5.7% [43][44] 4.2 Positions of Major Seats - In IC2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 26,236 lots, a decrease of 6,797 lots. The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 23,208 lots, a decrease of 2,458 lots, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 22,957 lots, a decrease of 2,430 lots [57] 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 3,034.63, down 0.35%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 39,499 lots, a decrease of 11,586 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 87,242 lots, a decrease of 5,602 lots [63] - The main contract of IH fell 0.36% to close at 3,038 points. The main contract was at a premium of 3.37 points, a decrease of 2.63 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was 0.49% [63][64] 5.2 Positions of Major Seats - In IH2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 9,106 lots, a decrease of 1,364 lots. The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 6,163 lots, a decrease of 588 lots, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,246 lots, a decrease of 334 lots [73]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/12/29 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7930 | -16 | -0.20% | 54,349 | -41.80% | 29,341 | 5.36% | | PK510 | 8218 | 22 | 0.27% | 382 | 33.57% | 1,404 | 18.18% | | PK601 | 8078 | 6 | 0.07% | 1,633 | 122.48% | 12,251 | -9.91% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7600 | 84 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The USDA's December report showed an increase in US corn exports and a decrease in inventory, but the production remains at a high level, so US corn is expected to fluctuate strongly. Domestic corn has different trends in different regions, with Northeast corn being relatively strong and North China corn being weak recently. The spot price of corn is expected to be relatively stable in the short - term, but there is still a risk of decline due to the potential seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China and the situation of downstream inventory building. Corn starch inventory has increased this week, and due to the relatively strong price of corn and weak price of starch, corporate profitability has declined. The short - term 03 starch futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Futures Disk - C2601 closed at 2318, up 70 (3.02%), with a trading volume of 53,592 (down 20.97%) and an open interest of 73,742 (down 20.45%). - C2605 closed at 2274, up 17 (0.75%), with a trading volume of 221,265 (up 14.88%) and an open interest of 490,650 (up 0.67%). - C2509 closed at 2294, up 15 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 17,920 (up 93.00%) and an open interest of 43,508 (up 1.05%). - CS2601 closed at 2516, up 25 (0.99%), with a trading volume of 8,683 (down 46.50%) and an open interest of 8,472 (down 31.05%). - CS2605 closed at 2583, up 30 (1.16%), with a trading volume of 22,967 (up 28.47%) and an open interest of 44,979 (down 7.08%). - CS2509 closed at 2630, up 17 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 665 (up 154.79%) and an open interest of 1,175 (up 22.01%) [2]. Spot and Basis - Corn: The prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port were 2080, 2160, 2332, 2284, 2330, 2400, and 2460 respectively. The price changes were 0, 0, - 12, - 6, 30, 30, and 30 respectively. The basis was - 214, - 134, 38, - 10, 56, 106, and 166 respectively. - Starch: The prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Cargill, Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade were 2750, 2700, 2850, 2860, 2800, 2880, and 2760 respectively, with no price changes. The basis was 167, 117, 267, 277, 217, 297, and 177 respectively [2]. Spread - Corn inter - period spreads: C01 - C05 was 44 (up 53), C05 - C09 was - 20 (up 2), C09 - C01 was - 24 (down 55). - Starch inter - period spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 67 (down 5), CS05 - CS09 was - 47 (up 13), CS09 - CS01 was 114 (down 8). - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 336 (up 2), CS01 - C01 was 198 (down 45), CS05 - C05 was 309 (up 13) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis Corn - US corn is expected to fluctuate strongly. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the price of Brazilian imports in February is 2159 yuan. The FOB price at northern ports has risen, and the spot price in Northeast China is relatively strong. The supply in North China has increased, and the spot price is weak. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price in North China is stable, and the price difference between wheat and corn is still large, so corn has a cost - performance advantage. Domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The spot price of corn is expected to be relatively stable in the short - term, but the market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the situation of downstream inventory building [4][6]. Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is weak. The spot price of starch in Northeast China is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has increased to 110.2 million tons, an increase of 2.8 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the relatively strong corn price and weak starch price, corporate profitability has declined. The 03 starch futures contract has followed the increase of corn, but the corn price in North China may decline in January, and the spot price of corn starch is also expected to decline later. The short - term 03 starch futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Close the long position of 07 corn. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8][9][10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Use the short - term cumulative put strategy and conduct rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn spot prices in various regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 spread, corn starch 1 - 5 spread, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract spread [15][17][19].