1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market supply is relatively loose, but the price has already factored in a lot of negative news, so further significant decline is limited, and it is expected to move in a range [3]. - The domestic soybean meal supply and demand are relatively loose, with high soybean arrivals and oil - mill operating rates. The soybean meal inventory will remain high, and the subsequent demand improvement is limited [4]. - The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is high, the demand is average, and the price is under pressure. The subsequent arrivals of rapeseed and granular rapeseed meal will be low, and the market change is limited [4]. - The recommended trading strategies are: for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **International soybean market**: The US soybean market has limited fundamental changes. The harvest has started, the yield is expected to be high, but the demand support is limited. The Brazilian soybean price has declined due to increased uncertainties, and the supply is relatively loose. The Argentine market pressure has decreased [3][8][11]. - **Domestic soybean meal market**: The domestic soybean meal price has declined. The supply pressure is significant due to high soybean arrivals and oil - mill operating rates, and the inventory is high. Although the demand is good, the subsequent improvement is limited [4][14]. - **Domestic rapeseed meal market**: The domestic rapeseed meal price fluctuates widely. The demand is average, and the supply is tight. The inventory is high, and the market change is limited [17]. - **Trading strategies**: Single - side: stay on the sidelines; Arbitrage: M11 - 1 calendar spread; Options: stay on the sidelines [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Macro lacks guidance, US soybean demand support is limited**: The US soybean price has declined after the previous rally. The harvest has started, the yield is expected to be high, but the demand support is limited, and the subsequent rebound space is restricted [6][8]. - **Increasing uncertainties, Brazilian soybean price declines**: The Brazilian soybean price has dropped. The production forecast has been raised, the supply is loose, and the price is expected to move in a range [9][11]. - **High supply pressure, spot prices are under continuous pressure**: The domestic soybean meal price has declined. The supply pressure is high due to high arrivals and operating rates, and the inventory is high. The subsequent demand improvement is limited [12][14]. - **Average demand, rapeseed meal fluctuates more**: The domestic rapeseed meal price fluctuates widely. The demand is average, the supply is tight, and the inventory is high [15][17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International market**: It includes data on US soybean weekly sales, export inspections, monthly crushing, and Brazilian and Argentine soybean monthly exports and crushing [20][22]. - **Foreign premiums**: It shows the FOB premiums of the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, and the CNF of rapeseed [24]. - **Macro: Exchange rates and international shipping**: It presents data on exchange rates (USD/CNH, USD/BRL, UDS/ARS) and shipping costs (Panamax freight rates for different routes) [26][34]. - **Supply**: It includes data on soybean and rapeseed imports and crushing [36]. - **Demand**: It shows the提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [38]. - **Inventory**: It includes data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories [41].

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of the pig market has significantly increased, and the price decline has deepened. The market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to decline. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The prices of live pigs across the country continued to decline this week. The supply pressure increased, with increased slaughter from scale enterprises, ordinary farmers, and secondary fattening. The slaughter weight increased, and the supply of large - weight pigs was relatively large. The demand was average, with large slaughter volume, increased frozen inventory, and decreased fresh - sales rate. The market is in a loose supply - demand state, and the price is expected to decline. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to continue to short on rallies for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: LH15 reverse spread. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. 2. Pig Prices - Pig prices across the country continued to decline this week. For example, in the Northeast, it was 12.38 - 12.55 yuan/kg, down 0.5 - 0.6 yuan/kg; in North China, it was 12.82 - 12.87 yuan/kg, down 0.6 - 0.65 yuan/kg. The overall supply pressure increased, and the pig prices were under great pressure [11]. 3. Changes in Slaughter and Consumption Slaughter Situation - The slaughter volume of live pigs continued to increase rapidly this week. The slaughter volume of scale enterprises, ordinary farmers, and secondary fattening all increased. The slaughter weight continued to increase slightly, and the supply of large - weight pigs increased significantly. The supply pressure still exists [13]. Consumption Situation - The demand in the pig market continued to be average. The slaughter volume increased, but the frozen inventory also increased, and the fresh - sales rate decreased significantly. The actual demand lacked obvious incremental performance [13]. 4. Breeding Profits - As of the week ending September 19, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 24.44 yuan/head, down 41.29 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 199.31 yuan/head, down 37.38 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profit continued to decline [21]. 5. Prices of Sows and Piglets Piglets - This week, the price of 7 - kg piglets was 259 yuan/head, down 32 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 358 yuan/kg, down 36 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for replenishing piglets decreased significantly [26]. Sows - This week, the sow price was 1590 yuan/head, down 2 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs decreased, and the enthusiasm for culling increased [26]. Reproductive Sow Inventory - According to Yongyi's data, the reproductive sow inventory in August increased slightly month - on - month, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.07% and scale enterprises increasing by 0.02%. According to Ganglian's data, the reproductive sow inventory in August decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, with scale enterprises decreasing by 0.83% and small and medium - sized farmers decreasing by 0.09% [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. It is advisable to consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices. For options, a strategy of selling put options during price pull - backs can be considered, while for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8366, up 38; palm oil 2601 was 9360, up 44; and rapeseed oil 2601 was 10143, up 75. The basis of each variety in different regions showed different changes [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 288, up 12; palm oil was 206, up 4; and rapeseed oil was 505, up 5 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was (994), down 6; the OI - Y spread was 1777, up 37; the OI - P spread was 783, up 31; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.76, down 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was (67), and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was (470) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 37th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 125.1 million tons (unchanged from last week), palm oil was 64.2 million tons (up from last week), and rapeseed oil was 61.4 million tons (down from last week) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, a decrease of 5.64 million tons from last week, a decline of 8.79%. China's palm oil imports in August were 34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. After a rapid rise, palm oil has corrected. One can consider buying in batches at low prices during the correction [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, and the operating rate was 66.35%. As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.2359 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from last week, a decline of 1.22%. China's soybean oil imports in August were 10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%. Currently, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. One can consider buying in batches at low prices [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, and the operating rate was 12.79%. As of September 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 29,100 tons from last week, a decline of 3.3%. China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports in August were 14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, and the inventory is gradually decreasing, which supports the price [8][10]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. One can consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices [12]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [13]. - **Options Strategy**: Consider selling put options during price pull - backs [14]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different varieties [17][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot container shipping freight rate remains weak, but concerns about the passage of China - Europe freight trains and the expectation of post - holiday price increases still exist, causing the EC futures market to strengthen slightly. The decline rate of spot freight rates is expected to slow down after the holiday. For dry bulk shipping, the market showed a slight increase last week with different trends among ship types. The oil tanker market is generally improving, with the crude oil and refined oil markets remaining stable [5][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On September 22, 2025, the EC2512 closed at 1653.9 points, up 1.71% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line on September 19 was $1052/TEU, down 8.84% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line released after the market on the 22nd was 1254.92 points, down 12.87% month - on - month [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shipping companies continue to lower spot prices. The freight rate center in late September dropped to around $1300 - 1600/FEU. The demand side has seen a decline in peak - season cargo volume, and the loading rate of major shipping companies has decreased. The supply side shows that the average weekly capacity in September, October, and November 2025 is 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The blank - sailing rate in October is about 15.56%. Attention should be paid to the subsequent tariff policy and the reopening of the Polish border [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to stop losses at low prices for short positions in EC2510 recently, and adopt a long - at - low strategy for the EC2512 contract. For arbitrage, conduct rolling operations at low prices for the 10 - 12 reverse spread and enter the market at low prices for the 2 - 4 positive spread [7][8]. Industry News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 18.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 80.5% [9]. - India's Minister of Commerce and Industry will visit the US to reach a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement, indicating a relaxation of tensions between the two countries [9]. - Shipping companies warn that the IMO's net - zero emission rules may bring huge costs to the industry, with an annual cost of about $20 - 30 billion by 2030 and over $300 billion by 2035 if the target is missed by 10% [10]. - Italian unions plan strikes and protests on September 19 and 22, which will disrupt the country's transportation and logistics [11]. - Israel has deployed a third division to the Gaza Strip, and Australia, Canada, and the UK have recognized the State of Palestine [12]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell slightly on Friday but rose 3.6% week - on - week. The Capesize index rose to a new high since July 29, while the Panamax index dropped to a new low since September 5 [16]. - **Spot Freight Rate**: On September 19, the freight rate for the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route was $24.77/ton, up 1.02% month - on - month, and the West Australia - Qingdao route was $10.94/ton, down 0.14% month - on - month. Weekly data shows that the freight rates of some coal and bauxite routes have increased [17]. - **Shipping Data**: From September 15 - 21, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 248,300 tons. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports in September are expected to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Capesize market has good transportation demand and rising freight rates, while the Panamax market has reduced cargo volume and falling freight rates. The large - ship market may see a decline in cargo volume from mid - October, and the medium - ship market is under pressure due to weak demand [19][20]. Industry News - The Simandou iron ore project has started the first - batch mining operations [21]. - Brazil is expected to increase its soybean planting area and production in the 2025/26 season [21]. - India and the US are seeking a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement [21]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Rate**: On September 19, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1143, down 0.35% month - on - month and up 30.48% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 618, down 0.48% month - on - month and up 3.34% year - on - year. The oil tanker market is generally stable, with the Suez - type ships popular in the crude oil market and regional differences in the refined oil market [23]. Industry News - Trump pressures European countries to stop buying Russian oil [24]. - Although there are concerns about oversupply and weak demand, geopolitical risks support international oil prices. The domestic refined oil price adjustment may be stranded [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of meal products has improved, and the market has staged a rebound. The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as import volume and cost support, while the rapeseed meal market is relatively stable. The overall soybean market is under pressure, and the price center is expected to move downward. The domestic meal market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with high inventory and weakening demand. The market is concerned about the uncertainty of future supply due to the lack of clear macro guidance [2][3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean market showed a significant decline. The domestic soybean meal market rebounded due to increased cost support, and the rapeseed meal market was relatively stable. The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a rebound trend [2] Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The carry - over stock of the old US soybean balance sheet was slightly increased. The new - crop production increased slightly due to the increase in planting area. The South American old - crop market was in a state of loose supply and demand, with an expected increase in production of 15.39 million tons and an increase in crushing volume of 8.21 million tons. The international soybean meal supply pressure was obvious, with an expected increase in crushing volume of 21.536 million tons in major producing areas [3] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply was loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and high inventory. The rapeseed meal demand was weakening, and the supply pressure still existed. As of September 19, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4275 million tons, the operating rate was 67.76%, the soybean inventory was 6.9466 million tons, the rapeseed crushing volume was 49,000 tons, and the operating rate was 13.06% [6] Macro - analysis - The Sino - US Madrid negotiation was completed, but there was no clear macro - guidance. The market was worried about the uncertainty of future supply. However, due to China's long - term demand for US soybeans, the price was unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [7] Logical Analysis - The market focus will shift back to the fundamentals. The overall soybean production has not changed much, and the support for US soybeans is expected to decline. The Brazilian soybean price is under pressure, and the domestic soybean meal supply and demand are relatively loose. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal inter - monthly spreads are expected to be strong [8] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to wait and see - **Arbitrage**: M11 - 1 long spread - **Options**: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [9] Soybean Crushing Profit - The report provides the crushing profit data of Brazilian soybeans from November 2025 to July 2026, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in crushing profit [10]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "2025/9/22 Live Pig Daily Report" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] - Contact Information: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs continues to increase, and the spot price is expected to remain weak. The futures price also faces downward pressure and is likely to decline [4][6]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Price - Today's average spot price of live pigs is 12.43 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg from yesterday. Most regions' prices are showing a downward trend [4]. Futures Price - All futures contracts show price declines. For example, LH01 dropped by 5 to 13345, and LH09 dropped by 385 to 12600 [4]. Sow/Piglet Price - This week, the piglet price is 258 yuan, down 1 yuan from last week, and the sow price is 1588 yuan, down 2 yuan from last week [4]. Spot Breeding Profit - The self - breeding and self - raising profit is - 24.44 yuan/head, down 41.29 yuan/head from yesterday; the profit from purchasing piglets is - 199.31 yuan/head, down 37.38 yuan/head from yesterday [4]. Slaughter Volume - Today's slaughter volume is 153248 heads, down 362 heads from yesterday [4]. Pig Price Spread - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs remains unchanged at 0.34; the spread between large pigs and standard pigs also remains unchanged at 0.24 [4]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short on the near - term contracts when prices rise [7]. - Arbitrage: Conduct LH15 reverse arbitrage [7]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly provides daily data on iron ore including futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, import profits, and more. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - DCE01: Today's price is 808.5, up 1.0 from yesterday; DCE05 is 786.0, unchanged; DCE09 is 766.0, up 2.0 [2] - Inter - contract spreads: I01 - I05 is 22.5, up 1.0; I05 - I09 is 20.0, down 2.0; I09 - I01 is - 42.5, up 1.0 [2] Spot Prices - Various iron ore spot prices increased compared to the previous day. For example, PB powder (60.8%) rose from 780 to 786, Newman powder from 789 to 796, etc. [2] Basis - The basis of different iron ore varieties to different contracts is provided. For the optimal delivery product (Roy Hill powder), the 01 - contract basis is 34, 05 - contract basis is 55, and 09 - contract basis is 77 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - Spreads between different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the spread of Carajás fines - PB powder increased from 128 to 129 [2] Import Profits - Import profits of different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the import profit of Carajás fines decreased from 18 to 3 [2] Indexes - The Platts 62% iron ore price increased from 105.2 to 106.6, the 65% price remained unchanged at 120.8, and the 58% price increased from 93.3 to 94.6 [2] 内外盘美金价差 - The spreads between SGX and DCE contracts increased. For example, SGX main - DCE01 increased from 7.2 to 7.5 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak supply period, and global inventories are gradually accumulating. Although the recent increase in Brazilian sugar production has a negative impact on prices, considering that international sugar prices have fallen to a low level and most of the negative factors have been realized, the low - price sugar has strong support below, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [10]. - In the domestic market, the import volume of sugar in China remained high in August, while the inventory of domestic sugar is low and the sales - to - production ratio is high. Affected by the trend of foreign sugar, both foreign and domestic sugar prices are at a low level. With low domestic sugar inventory and a firm basis, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate within a range and rebound in the short term [10]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,455, down 14 (-0.26%); SR01 at 5,452, down 9 (-0.16%); SR05 at 5,432, down 14 (-0.26%). The trading volume of SR09 was 535, a decrease of 52; SR01 was 185,371, a decrease of 40,117; SR05 was 15,434, a decrease of 7,294. The open interest of SR09 increased by 264 to 2,042; SR01 increased by 6,523 to 456,830; SR05 increased by 1,083 to 58,239 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,900, 5,905, 6,090, 5,800, 6,015, 5,930, and 6,280 respectively, with price drops of -40, -25, -35, -30, 0, -20, and -30. The corresponding basis was 448, 453, 638, 348, 563, 478, and 828 [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was -20, down 5; the SR09 - SR5 spread was 23, unchanged; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 3, down 5 [5]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 of 16.18, a premium of 0.06, and a freight of 41.50, the in - quota price was 4,449, the out - of - quota price was 5,666, the difference from the Liuzhou price was 234, the difference from the Rizhao price was 264, and the difference from the futures price was -214. For Thai imports, with an ICE主力 of 16.18, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4,407, the out - of - quota price was 5,611, the difference from the Liuzhou price was 289, the difference from the Rizhao price was 319, and the difference from the futures price was -159 [5]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: As of the week ending September 16, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,021,095 contracts, a decrease of 86,473 from the previous week. Speculative long positions were 165,809 contracts, an increase of 1,119 from the previous week; speculative short positions were 316,860 contracts, a decrease of 30,438 from the previous week; speculative net short positions were 151,051 contracts, a decrease of 31,557 from the previous week [7]. - India's sugar exports this year are expected to be less than 800,000 tons, unable to meet the quota of 1 million tons. So far, about 750,000 tons of export contracts have been signed and about 720,000 tons have been actually exported. It is estimated that the total export volume in the 2024 - 2025 season will be about 775,000 tons [7]. - On September 17, 2025, Hulunbuir Angel Shengtong Sugar Industry started production, marking the official start of the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, 5 days later than the same period last year. It is expected to process about 1 million tons of beets. Due to more rain in the fall, the actual start - up time was 10 days later than planned. Currently, the new - sugar prices of white sugar and rock sugar in Inner Mongolia are 5,700 yuan/ton and 5,730 yuan/ton respectively. Heifeng Agriculture is expected to start production today, 3 days later than last year. Inner Mongolia Lingyunhai Tianshan Sugar Factory is expected to start production on September 25 to produce rock sugar, and Zhangbei and Qianqi Sugar Factories are expected to start production on September 28 to produce rock sugar and white sugar respectively. If they start as scheduled, the start - up time will be significantly earlier than last year [7][9]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, foreign sugar prices are at a low level and are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Zhengzhou sugar prices are also at a low level, and the downward space is limited. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13]. Part 3: Relevant Attachments - The part mainly includes multiple charts such as Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, Guangxi and Yunnan sales - to - production ratio trends, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, and various sugar price spreads and basis charts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [14][17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Early - maturing apples have a poor high - quality fruit rate, and it is speculated that Fuji apples may also have a poor high - quality fruit rate. Continuous rainfall in the western production areas is expected to affect the quality. However, considering the current high prices, the apple market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the supply of mid - maturing apples is increasing. The overall quality of Hongqian Fuji in the west is okay, but some have average chroma and redness due to long rainfall and short sunshine. The price of high - quality goods remains firm. In Shandong, the inventory goods are sold at a stable pace, with individual townships slowing down. The price of fruit farmers' goods is mainly stable. The Red General in Shandong has started trading, but the overall quality is poor, and it's difficult to organize a large amount of high - quality and red goods. The digestion speed in the sales area is stable, and the profit of early - maturing Fuji for merchants is limited due to high purchase prices [6] - Main production area prices: In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade striped apples is 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, and the price of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples is 3.30 - 4.20 yuan/jin. For early - maturing varieties, the price of 80 starting Red General is 2.3 - 2.8 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the price of 70 and above early - maturing Fuji is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin for the mainstream market, 4.7 - 4.8 yuan/jin for high - quality goods, and 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin for ordinary goods. In Baishui, Shaanxi, the price of 70 starting early - maturing Fuji is 3 - 3.3 yuan/jin [6] 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of September 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 1.94%, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points in this cycle (20250905 - 0910), and 0.98 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory removal rate is 96.96%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 3.70%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points, and the cold - storage shipment volume is slightly higher than last week. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 1.54%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points, and Shaanxi cold - storage is gradually clearing inventory [11] - As of September 10, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas is 20.91 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons compared with last week, and the inventory shipment speed in Shandong is slightly accelerating [11] 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles has slightly increased compared with last week, with an average of about 25.6 vehicles per day. The price of Shandong 80 late Fuji in baskets is 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes is 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan Gala is 5.3 - 5.5 yuan/jin for 70 starting in baskets, and 6 - 7 yuan/jin for high - quality fruits. Recently, the arrival volume has increased slightly compared with the off - season, mainly Fuji apples, with a small amount of early - maturing Fuji. The high - quality basket - packed Fuji is sold well, while the box - packed ones are slow [14] - Substitute product price: On September 11, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is 6.84 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it is at the median of the same period in recent years [14] - Profit situation: The profit of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia in the 2024 - 2025 production season is 0.4 yuan/jin, the same as last week [14] - This week, the market arrival volume has increased, the overall sales are good, and the price remains stable. The arrival volume in the wholesale market continues to increase, mainly for the sales of early - maturing apples. The proportion of apples in the cold - storage is small, especially in the northwest. The overall sales of the early - maturing apple market are okay, with a fast sales speed before the Mid - Yuan Festival and a slowdown after the festival [14] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New - season apples may have a poor high - quality fruit rate, but the current price is high, so the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weakening fluctuating trend. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time. For arbitrage and options, it's advisable to wait and see [9][15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Futures: The closing prices of most cotton and yarn contracts decreased. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13,610, down 110; the CY09 contract closed at 19,990, down 250. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed, with the trading volume of the CF01 contract increasing by 90,576 and the open interest increasing by 13,028 [3] - Spot: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,224 yuan/ton, down 95; the Cot A price was 78.40 cents/pound, down 0.25. The prices of some other spot products also had corresponding changes [3] - Spreads: In cotton and yarn spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was -5, down 20; the 1 - 5 month spread of yarn was -465, down 85. There were also changes in cross - variety and internal - external spreads [3] Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of September 20, 2025, the cotton planting area in India was 10.964 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The planting areas in some main producing states had different changes. The final area is expected to be around 10.97 - 11 million hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of about 3% [6] - In 2025, China's cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The national expected total output was 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, reaching a new high since 2013 [7] - As of September 16, 2025, the net long position rate of ICE cotton futures funds was -23.31% (a week - on - week increase of 3.73 percentage points) [7] Trading Logic - New cotton is gradually entering the acquisition period, and the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase more than expected, and the acquisition enthusiasm of ginneries is average. It is expected that there will be no large - scale rush to purchase. The acquisition price is expected to be around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be certain selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand in September has slightly improved, but the improvement is limited, so the peak season is expected to be average [8] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton will show a slightly weakening fluctuating trend. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The price of the pure cotton yarn market remained stable over the weekend, with general shipment and weak peak - season characteristics, mainly short - term orders. The cash flow of pure cotton spinning enterprises has improved, but inland spinning enterprises are still slightly in the red, so the willingness to increase the operating rate significantly is not high [11] - The shipment of all - cotton grey cloth remained stable with partial weakness. The demand for all - cotton denim was okay, and the order situation this year was better than that of regular cotton cloth. The situation of weaving factories in Shandong was stable, while those in Hubei were under pressure, and some weaving factories reduced the operating rate [11] Options - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton on September 22, 2025, decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601C14000.CZC, CF601P13600.CZC, and CF601P13400.CZC were 12.6%, 11.8%, and 11.9% respectively [13] - Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7625 for positions and 0.7995 for trading volume. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and CF inter - month spreads, etc., which visually show the price trends and relationships of relevant products [18][20][25]