Yin He Qi Huo

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进口糖供应压力即将兑现,郑糖或将维持弱势
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 03:32
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar market's expected high yield in the new season is pressuring sugar prices. With Brazil approaching its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase, and raw sugar will generally fluctuate. In the short term, the market will be influenced by phased production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in production [3]. - In the domestic market, the sales and production speed is relatively fast, and inventory reduction is advanced. Considering the expected arrival of a large amount of imported sugar, sugar prices are expected to be suppressed. Coupled with the weakening of raw sugar prices and the decline in imported sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [3]. - Recently, raw sugar has broken through the downward trend due to the expected high yield in Brazil. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes on the sugarcane crushing progress and the marginal change of raw sugar. In China, the summer stocking demand is delayed, and the short - term trend of raw sugar is weak. The profit of out - of - quota imports has increased again, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Internationally, with Brazil's approaching supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase, and raw sugar will generally fluctuate. In the short term, the market will be influenced by phased production data, and attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in production. Domestically, the sales and production speed is relatively fast, and inventory reduction is advanced. Considering the expected arrival of a large amount of imported sugar, sugar prices are expected to be suppressed. Coupled with the weakening of raw sugar prices and the decline in imported sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [3]. Logical Analysis - Raw sugar has recently broken through the downward trend due to the expected high yield in Brazil. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes on the sugarcane crushing progress and the marginal change of raw sugar. In China, the summer stocking demand is delayed, and the short - term trend of raw sugar is weak. The profit of out - of - quota imports has increased again, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize, so Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Be bearish. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5]. Core Logic Analysis - The global sugar market's expected high yield in the new season is pressuring sugar prices. The ISO has raised its forecast of the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons, the highest level of supply - demand shortage in 9 years. However, it is expected that the global sugar supply will have a surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 season [7][9]. - In Brazil, as of the second half of April in the 2025/26 season, sugar production decreased slightly year - on - year. In May, sugar exports decreased by 19.72% year - on - year. As of the week of June 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, the same as the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.247 million tons, a decrease of 4.12% from the previous week [10][19][21]. - The NFCSF in India expects the ending inventory of sugar in the 2024/25 season to be about 4.865 million metric tons, which can meet domestic consumption demand from October to November 2025. It is also expected that the sugar production will strongly recover in the 2025/26 season, reaching about 35 million metric tons [22]. - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season has ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 12.03% year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 23.07% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The average sales price of refined white sugar in May 2025 was 6,026 yuan/ton, a decrease of 392 yuan/ton year - on - year [25]. Weekly Data Tracking - In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 75,700 tons year - on - year. From January to April 2025, China imported 278,400 tons of sugar, a decrease of 77.86% year - on - year. As of April in the 2024/25 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.7401 million tons, a decrease of 44.18% year - on - year [27]. - As of April in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports of three types of goods under item 170290 were 806,700 tons, a decrease of 13.44% year - on - year [28].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20250610
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 14:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market faces significant pressure from a bumper harvest, and the domestic soybean supply pressure is also obvious, with inventory increasing and prices under pressure [4]. - The price of sugar is expected to remain weak due to factors such as the potential increase in global sugar production in the 2025/26 season and sluggish global demand [7][9]. - The oil market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and factors such as the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil, the weather in the United States, and the purchase situation in China and India need to be monitored [19][20]. - Corn prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term in the spot market and show strong oscillations in the futures market, affected by factors such as domestic supply, weather, and policy expectations [28]. - The overall supply pressure of the pig market is still evident, and prices are expected to oscillate [34][35]. - The peanut market is weak, with low spot trading volume and expected increase in new - season planting area, and short - selling is recommended for the 10 - contract peanut [38][40]. - Egg prices in the near - month 07 contract are expected to be weak, while the far - month 8 and 9 contracts may rise if the supply situation improves [48][49]. - Apple futures prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in June, supported by low inventory and potential impacts on fruit setting [54][56]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - to - long - term, but the market is subject to the uncertainty of US policies [63][64]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 External Market Conditions - CBOT soybean index fell 0.24% to 1043.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to 302 US dollars per short ton [2]. Important Information - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75%. The export inspection volume in the week ending June 5, 2025, was 547,040 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks were estimated at 351 million bushels [2]. - As of the week ending June 6, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, the operating rate was 63.1%, the soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons [2]. Logic Analysis - The international soybean market has a significant bumper - harvest pressure, and the domestic soybean supply pressure is obvious, with inventory increasing and prices under pressure [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: M11 - 1 positive spread. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]. Sugar External Market Conditions - ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.21 (1.27%) to 16.70 cents per pound [6]. Important Information - The FAO sugar price index in May averaged 109.4 points, down 2.9 points (2.6%) month - on - month. The 24/25 sugar - crushing season in Guangdong had a cumulative sugar production of 654,500 tons, and the industrial inventory was 0 tons [7]. Logic Analysis - Raw sugar has been dragged down by the expected bumper harvest in Brazil and broken through the support level. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain weak due to factors such as the lag in summer stocking demand and the potential increase in processing sugar supply [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: May remain weak in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oilseeds and Oils External Market Conditions - The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price decreased by 0.48% to 47.41 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price decreased by 0.15% to 3,919 ringgit per ton [14]. Important Information - Analysts' average forecasts for the 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks were 351 million bushels, and for the 2025/26 were 298 million bushels. As of June 8, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [15][17]. - As of the week ending June 6, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 372,600 tons, and the soybean oil commercial inventory was 812,700 tons [18]. Logic Analysis - The market expects the Malaysian palm oil to continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in May. India has lowered the crude palm oil tax rate, and the US weather is currently good but may turn dry in the future. The domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, and the rapeseed oil supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [19]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expected to oscillate in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [20][21][22]. Corn/Corn Starch External Market Changes - CBOT corn futures declined, with the main contract falling 2.1% to 433.5 cents per bushel [26]. Important Information - The CBOT corn futures fell due to good weather in the Midwest corn - producing areas and uncertain export prospects. The 2024/25 corn sales rate in Mato Grosso was 51.05%. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71%, the planting rate was 97%, and the emergence rate was 87% [27]. - On June 10, the purchase price at the northern port was 2,270 - 2,290 yuan per ton, and the corn price in the North China production area was strong [27]. Logic Analysis - The US corn planting has accelerated, and the weather is good, so the external - market corn price continues to decline. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, while the futures price will show strong oscillations [28]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The external - market 07 - contract corn will oscillate at the bottom. Wait and see for the 07 - contract corn. - Arbitrage: Conduct oscillating operations on the corn - starch spread, and widen the spread when the price is low. Hold the long - corn and short - 07 - contract corn position. - Options: Those with spot positions can consider the strategy of selling call options when the price is high [31][32]. Pigs Relevant Information - The pig price showed a rebound trend. As of the week ending June 6, the 7 - kg piglet price was 481 yuan per head, and the 50 - kg sow price was 1,626 yuan per head. On June 9, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.46 yuan per kilogram [34]. Logic Analysis - The supply pressure from the breeding side is still evident, and the overall price pressure is relatively significant due to the relatively high inventory [34]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillate mainly. - Arbitrage: LH79 reverse spread. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [35][36]. Peanuts Important Information - The peanut prices in different regions were reported. The peanut oil price was strong, while the peanut meal sales were slow. As of June 5, 2025, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 144,720 tons, and the peanut oil inventory was 40,100 tons [36][37]. Logic Analysis - The peanut spot trading volume is low, the import volume has decreased significantly, the downstream consumption is weak, and the market expects an increase in the new - season planting area [38]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - sell the 10 - contract peanut when the price is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the pk510 - C - 8800 options [40][41][42]. Eggs Important Information - The average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.75 yuan per catty, and that of the main egg - consuming areas was 2.95 yuan per catty. In May, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.334 billion, and the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 46.985 million [44]. - As of the week ending June 6, the national main - area egg - laying hen culling volume was 19.97 million, the national representative - area egg sales volume was 8,856 tons, the production - link inventory was 0.94 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.03 days [45][47]. Trading Logic - The near - month 07 - contract egg price is expected to be weak, while the far - month 8 and 9 contracts may rise if the supply situation improves [48]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the far - month 8 and 9 contracts in mid - to - late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [49]. Apples Important Information - As of May 21, 2025, the national main - area apple cold - storage inventory was 1.7085 million tons. The 2024 - 2025 season's 80 first - and second - grade apple storage profit in Qixia was 0.9 yuan per catty [52][53]. Trading Logic - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples. The 10 - contract apple futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in June [54][56]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Build long positions in the AP10 contract when the price is low. - Arbitrage: Wait and see first. - Options: Wait and see first [61]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn External Market Impact - ICE US cotton rose on Friday, with the main contract rising 0.39 (0.59%) to 65.97 cents per pound [58]. Important Information - The average temperature and rainfall in the US cotton - producing areas and the rainfall in the Indian cotton - producing areas were reported. The cotton spot trading was divided, and the sales and transaction basis were reported [59][60][62]. Trading Logic - The current trading logic is mainly macro - oriented. In the short term, the price will oscillate within a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, it may decline, but the market is subject to the uncertainty of US policies [63]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly under macro - influence. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [64][65][66].
银河期货油脂日报-20250610
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 14:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The report predicts that short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend. It also suggests a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options trading [10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybean oil, the 2509 closing price was 7758 with a decrease of 8. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8018, 8038, and 7958 respectively, with basis values of 260, 280, and 200. For palm oil, the 2509 closing price was 8116 with a decrease of 66. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8496, 8526, and 8616 respectively, with basis values of 380, 410, and 500. For rapeseed oil, the 2509 closing price was 9188 with an increase of 6. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9368, 9258, etc., with basis values of 180 and 70 [4] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread for soybean oil was 60 with a decrease of 6; for palm oil, it was 36 with a decrease of 18; for rapeseed oil, it was 142 with an increase of 1 [4] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 09 - contract Y - P spread was - 358 with an increase of 58; the OI - Y spread was 1430; the OI - P spread was 1072 with an increase of 72; the oil - meal ratio was 2.56 with a decrease of 0.01 [4] - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil disk profit for Malaysia and Indonesia was - 283, and the CNF price was 977 for the 7 - month shipment. The FOB price of Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil was 1058, and the disk profit was - 1346 [4] - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories**: As of the 23rd week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 36.4 (compared to 81.3 last week and 75.5 last year), palm oil inventory was 37.3 (compared to 36.8 last week), and rapeseed oil inventory was 76.9 (compared to 78.2 last week) [4] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1387236 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%. The inventory was 1990154 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. Imports were 68971 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%. Production was 1771621 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05% [6] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: The MPOB report was slightly bullish, but due to macro - external factors, palm oil futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 37.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 tons or 2.36%. The inventory was still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes were stable with a slight decline, and the import profit inversion was narrowed. There were 1 - 2 palm oil purchase ships on that day. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. India's reduction of import duties is conducive to increasing palm oil imports, but the origin is expected to increase production and accumulate inventory, so palm oil lacks obvious and continuous bullish drivers and is expected to move sideways in the short term [6] - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 224.46 tons, and the operating rate was 63.1%, a decrease from the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 81.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.78 tons or 7.66%, at a relatively neutral and slightly lower level in the same period of history, and the basis declined. The market is still concerned about the implementation of US biodiesel, and the sowing of US soybeans is ongoing with a lower - than - expected excellent rate, but the impact is limited. The short - term disk will maintain a volatile trend [8] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly higher. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 7.2 tons, and the operating rate was 19.19%, a decrease from the previous week. As of May 30, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 78.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons, still at a high level in the same period of history. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil was around 1050 US dollars, and the import profit inversion was expanded to around - 1300. The spot market was light in trading, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight increase. There are many policy disturbances in the short term, and the single - side will maintain a large - range volatile trend [8] Part 3: Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that short - term oils will maintain a volatile trend [10] - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides 8 graphs, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, Y 9 - 1 monthly spread, P 5 - 9 monthly spread, OI 5 - 9 monthly spread, Y - P 05 spread, and OI - Y 05 spread [13][16]
银河期货航运日报-20250610
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 13:40
大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 06 月 10 日 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一部分 | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数(欧线) | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数(欧线) | 日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2506 | 1,932.0 | -16.6 | -0.85% | 1,848.0 | 40.11% | 7,268.0 | -6.86% | | EC2508 | 2,042.1 | -23.5 | -1.14% | 59,708.0 | 7.19% | 45,494.0 | 3.10% | | EC2510 | 1,351.9 | 8.2 | 0.61% | 9,827.0 | 23.69% | 24,183.0 | -0.25% | | EC2512 | 1,545.6 | 24. ...
生猪日报:出栏节奏放缓,现货略有反弹-20250610
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 13:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall live pig price in the country rebounded slightly today, but the market supply is still relatively abundant, and there is still downward pressure on prices in the short - term. The futures market showed a significant rebound today, but in the long - term, due to high production capacity, the supply pressure remains high, and the price increase is difficult. The inter - monthly spread of the futures market is expected to move downward [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Content Spot Price - Today, the spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of change. For example, the price in Henan increased from 13.91 to 14.13, and in Anhui it rose from 14.00 to 14.24. The average price remained unchanged at 13.74 [4]. Futures Price - Futures prices generally showed an upward trend. For example, LH07 increased from 13070 to 13225, and LH09 rose from 13475 to 13595 [4]. Sow/Piglet Price - Piglet prices decreased from 481 to 465, and sow prices dropped from 1626 to 1621 [4]. Spot Breeding Profit - The self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased from 35.65 to 33.83, and the profit from purchasing piglets decreased from - 84.37 to - 120.80 [4]. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume decreased from 142829 to 141441 [4]. Size Pig Price Difference - The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increased from 0.29 to 0.31, while the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs decreased from 0.08 to 0.05 [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly in a volatile operation - Arbitrage: LH79 reverse spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [7]
白糖日报-20250610
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 13:30
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 5,841 6 0.10% 162,011 26.86% 304,757 0.89% 5,926 5 0.08% 18,405 25.23% 27,126 -4.47% 5,762 7 0.12% 484 90.55% 2,407 -1.71% 柳州 昆明 湛江 南宁 鲅鱼圈 日照 西安 6200 5960 - 6155 6255 6270 6510 0 -10 - 0 0 1 0 -10 438 198 - 393 493 508 748 SR07-SR11 价差 涨跌 SR09-SR11 价差 涨跌 SR07-SR09 价差 涨跌 164 -2 7 9 159 8 5 -1 国别 ICE主力 升贴水 运费 配额内价格 配额外价格 与柳州价差 与日照价差 与盘面价差 巴西进口 17.31 0.04 3 3 4583 5862 338 408.00 6 4 泰国进口 17.31 0.8 1 8 4596 5880 320 390.00 4 6 现货价格 ...
市场变化有限,盘面继续偏强运行
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 13:30
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c 粕类日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 【粕类日报】市场变化有限 盘面继续偏强运行 研究员:陈界正 期货从业证号: F3045719 投资咨询证号: Z0015458 联系方式: 国内现货继续转为宽松,油厂开机率继续增加,市场供应充足,提货量也受益增加,库 存逐步累积,现货成交继续维持低位,市场远期成交量继续增加,近期国内豆粕远期新作成 交量大幅增加,由于近端市场供应比较充足,出货积极,市场以执行合同为主,需求增加有 限情况下,预计现货仍将以偏弱运行,近期实际需求预计改善有限,主要因生猪出栏增多, 需求缺乏明显改善。截止 6 月 6 日,油厂大豆实际压榨量 224.46 万吨,开机率为 63.1%, 大豆库存 610.29 万吨,较上周增加 27.41 万吨,增幅 4.7%,同比去年增加 120.88 万吨, 增幅 24.7%。豆粕库存 38.25 万吨,较上周增加 8.45 万吨,增幅 28.36%,同比去年减少 50.7 万吨,减幅 57%。近期国内菜粕需求开始有逐步转弱表现,近期油厂开机率有所下降,但总 体供应充 ...
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250610
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 11:31
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Daily Report - Egg Report [2] - Date: June 10, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3591, up 26 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3354, up 34; JD09 closed at 3655, down 19 [3] - 01-05 spread was 237, down 8; 05-09 spread was -301, up 53; 09-01 spread was 64, down 45 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, unchanged; 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.17, up 0.01 [3] Spot Market - Main production area average price was 2.75 yuan/jin, unchanged; main sales area average price was 2.95 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Average price of culled chickens was 4.54 yuan/jin, down 0.02 from the previous day [3] Profit Calculation - Today's profit per bird was -6.06 yuan, down 0.37 from yesterday [3] - Corn average price was 2390 yuan/ton, up 2; bean粕 average price was 2944 yuan/ton, up 4 [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - Today's main production area average price was 2.75 yuan/jin, down 0.03 from the previous day; main sales area average price was 2.95 yuan/jin, down 0.06 [6] - In May, the national laying hen inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a 7.2% year-on-year increase [7] - In May, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 4% month-on-month decrease and a 1% year-on-year increase [7] - From June to September 2025, the estimated laying hen inventory is 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [7] - From June 1 - 6, the national culled chicken slaughter volume was 19.97 million, a 0.5% decrease from the previous week [7] - As of June 5, the average culling age of culled chickens was 515 days, a decrease of 6 days from the previous week [7] - As of June 6, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 8856 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [8] - As of June 6, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.94 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.02 days [8] - As of June 5, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was -0.34 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The near - month 07 contract is expected to maintain a weak performance due to the off - season demand after the rainy season in May, but the downward space is limited [10] - For the far - month contracts, if the culling volume increases and improves the egg supply, the August and September contracts (peak season contracts) may rise; otherwise, the upward space is limited [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the August and September far - month contracts in mid - to late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high [11] - Arbitrage: Short near - month and long far - month [11] - Options: Wait and see [11]
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250610
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 11:28
银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人:车红云 | | | 期货从业证号:F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场:昨日,得益于美元的疲软,伦敦金自盘中早些时候触及的低点反弹, | | 研究员:王伟 | 收复日内全部跌幅,最终收涨 0.43%,收报 3325.215 美元/盎司;伦敦银连续第四个交 | | 期货从业证号:F03143400 | 易日上涨,最终收涨 2.16%,报 36.743 美元/盎司,继续刷新自 2012 年以来的价格高 | | 投资咨询从业证号: Z0022141 | 点。受外盘影响,沪金主力合约收涨 0.18%,报 776.66 元/克,沪银主力合约收涨 | | | 2.07%,报 9015 元/千克,为沪银合约上市以来的新高。 | | 研究员:王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数:美元指数震荡走低,最终收跌 0.25%,报 98.94。 | | 期货从业证号 ...
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Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 11:26
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 06 月 10 日 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 张跌 | | 成 | | | | | | 相 | | | 宮干菜苗(y铝铝 | 111.68 | 111.63 | 0.05 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.61 | 7.73 | -0.12 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | | | 指标 | रेनरि | 昨收 | 器鉄 | 指标 | रेनरि | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | AP01 | 7439 | 7400 | 3d | AP01- ...