1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall financial market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different sectors affected by various factors such as macro - economic data, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the stock index futures market is affected by risk preferences and commodity price fluctuations; the bond market has opportunities due to the change of risk preferences; the agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply and demand; the black metal market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and downstream demand; the non - ferrous metal market is influenced by factors such as the US economic data, geopolitical risks, and supply and demand; the energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply and demand, and cost [19][22][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core view: Risk preferences continue to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a slightly stronger direction due to the strength of heavy - weight stocks. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use bull spreads [20][21] Bond Index Futures - Core view: Risk preferences are fluctuating. The bond market performs relatively strongly, but the sentiment is still cautious. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips for TF and T contracts; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [22][23] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core view: The demand side of US soybeans has improved, and the domestic soybean meal cost is supported, but the supply is becoming looser. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, use the short straddle strategy [25][26] Sugar - Core view: International sugar prices are at the bottom and oscillating, while domestic sugar prices are relatively strong and are also expected to oscillate at the bottom. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to pay attention to whether the previous low of international sugar prices can be effectively broken, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31][32][33] Oil and Fat Sector - Core view: Oils and fats maintain a wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as trade and policy expectations, and there is a callback demand. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies lightly or go long on dips after the callback; for arbitrage, consider the y59 reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [34][35] Corn/Corn Starch - Core view: The spot price in the production area is stable, and the futures price oscillates weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on the US 03 corn contract after it stabilizes and short on the 03 corn contract lightly on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch; for options, stay on the sidelines [37][38] Live Pigs - Core view: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has risen slightly, but there is still pressure in the follow - up. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading and arbitrage are recommended to be on the sidelines; for options, use the short straddle strategy [40][41] Peanuts - Core view: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates in a narrow range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies lightly for the 03 peanut contract; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42][43][44] Eggs - Core view: Pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and egg prices have fallen. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies for the June contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [45][46][47] Apples - Core view: Pre - festival sales are good, and apple prices are firm. The May contract price is expected to rise easily and fall hard. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips for the May contract and short on rallies for the October contract; for arbitrage, long the May contract and short the October contract; for options, stay on the sidelines [48][49][50] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core view: The fundamentals change little, and cotton prices are supported. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips for the Zhengzhou cotton contract in the short term; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [52][53] Black Metals Steel - Core view: The demand is weakening marginally, and steel prices continue to oscillate following raw materials. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to follow the raw materials and oscillate weakly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and continue to hold the short position of the coil - screw spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [55][56] Coking Coal and Coke - Core view: The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, with large fluctuations. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to trade in bands and wait for opportunities to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [57][58][59] Iron Ore - Core view: Market expectations are fluctuating, and iron ore prices are running weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weak; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [60][61] Ferroalloys - Core view: The cost support is strong, and the previous long positions can be held. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the previous long positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the out - of - the - money put options [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Core view: Pessimistic sentiment is spreading, and short - term fluctuations are intensifying. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options are recommended to stay on the sidelines [65][67][68] Platinum and Palladium - Core view: Under the strong US dollar, the metals are oscillating. Be cautious when participating in unilateral trading. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips cautiously; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [68][69] Copper - Core view: Pay attention to the change of sentiment before the Spring Festival. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate cautiously; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [70][73][74] Alumina - Core view: Short - term marginal changes in production capacity cause fluctuations. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate strongly in the short term; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [75][76][77] Electrolytic Aluminum - Core view: Wait for the volatility to decline before the Spring Festival, and the medium - term expectation remains unchanged. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be cautious; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [78][79] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core view: Oscillate following the sector. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options are recommended to stay on the sidelines [80][81] Zinc - Core view: Pay attention to the change of market sentiment. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the short positions and move the stop - loss line down; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [82][84][85] Lead - Core view: Oscillate within a range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly within a range; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [86][88] Nickel - Core view: Oscillate following the non - ferrous metal sector. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then go long; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [89][91] Stainless Steel - Core view: Supported by cost, follow the nickel price. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines before the Spring Festival and go long on dips after the price stabilizes; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [93][96] Industrial Silicon - Core view: The expectation of organic silicon production reduction increases, revising the previous view. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate within the range; for arbitrage and options, there is no recommendation for now [97][99] Polysilicon - Core view: Industry self - discipline and price - support expectations rise again, and the market fluctuates more. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be strong in oscillation and operate cautiously; for arbitrage and options, there is no recommendation for now [100][101] Lithium Carbonate - Core view: Before the Spring Festival, it is dominated by sentiment, and wait for the volatility to decline. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to reduce the exposure; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the out - of - the - money put options after the price stabilizes [102][104] Tin - Core view: Pay attention to the market sentiment. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate cautiously; for options, stay on the sidelines [105][106] Shipping Container Shipping - Core view: Shipping companies announce price increases in March, and pay attention to the geopolitical situation in Iran. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, conduct the 6 - 10 calendar spread [107][108][109] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Core view: Wait for the outcome of events. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weak in oscillation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [110][111][113] Asphalt - Core view: There are still concerns about the increase in raw material costs and supply gaps in the medium term. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level and go long on dips for the BU2606 contract; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU and short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [114][115][116] Fuel Oil - Core view: The high - sulfur spot market is always strong, and pay attention to the short - term geopolitical risks. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate strongly and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 calendar spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [118][119][120] LPG - Core view: Oscillate and consolidate before the Spring Festival. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [121][123] Natural Gas - Core view: Geopolitical risks reach a critical point, and cold weather is about to affect Eurasia. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to continue to hold the short positions for the TTF and JKM third - quarter contracts and the HH second - quarter contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [123][124] PX&PTA - Core view: Polyester production cuts are gradually implemented, and textile sales are gradually stopping. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [126][127] BZ&EB - Core view: The supply - demand balance is expected to improve, and benzene ethylene is in a stage of destocking. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage, conduct the calendar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [128][130][131] Ethylene Glycol - Core view: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [132][133] Short - fiber - Core view: Short - fiber factories reduce production as planned. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [134][135] Bottle Chips - Core view: The processing margin is strengthening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [136][137] Propylene - Core view: The supply - demand support is acceptable, and the spot price is running strongly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [139][140][141] Plastic PP - Core view: The PP production profit margin has improved slightly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the L 2605 contract and the PP 2605 contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [142][143] Caustic Soda - Core view: The caustic soda price is weak. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [144][146][147] PVC - Core view: Oscillate in a wide range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [150][151] Soda Ash - Core view: The price is weakening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, short glass and long soda ash; for options, short the call options [152][155][156] Glass - Core view: The price is weakening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, short glass and long soda ash; for options, short the call options [157][159] Methanol - Core view: Run weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 59 calendar spread; for options, short the put options on the callback [160][161][164] Urea - Core view: The market turns weak again. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [165][167] Pulp - Core view: The pulp price continues to oscillate in a wide range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate within the range and long on dips for aggressive investors; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the SP2605 - C - 5350 option [168][169][171] Offset Printing Paper - Core view: High inventory suppresses the paper price. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the OP2604 - C - 4200 option [171][172][178] Logs - Core view: The change of delivery rules is beneficial to the log valuation. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the long positions; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 3 - 5 reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [175][176][180] Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber - Core view: As the Spring Festival approaches, the tire production starts to increase marginally. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract and the NR 04 contract; for arbitrage, hold the NR2605 - RU2605 spread; for options, reduce the position of the RU2605 call 18250 contract and stay on the sidelines [180][181][183] Butadiene Rubber - Core view: The synthetic rubber inventory turns to year - on - year destocking. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the BR 04 contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [184][185][186]

F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： 研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 02 月 05 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日似 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 阳 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 108.44 | 108.53 | -0.09 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.00 | 4.10 | -0.10 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.25 | -0.15 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.92 | 7.81 | 0.11 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices fell to the previous low and then rose sharply due to expected lower sugar production and higher consumption in 2026/27, although India's sugar production may exceed expectations. [8] - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from increased supply during the peak crushing season, but the pressure is expected to ease due to the sharp rebound in international sugar prices and the easing of domestic macro - sentiment, with prices likely to oscillate at the bottom. [8] - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom after hitting the bottom and rebounding, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to have a bottom - oscillating price. [9] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options, and expect a bottom - oscillating trend for the unilateral position. [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,214 with a rise of 37 (0.71%), trading volume of 25,546 (a decrease of 14,196), and an open interest of 116,869 (an increase of 696); SR01 closed at 5,318 with a rise of 38 (0.72%), trading volume of 968 (an increase of 619), and an open interest of 2,391 (an increase of 743); SR05 closed at 5,210 with a rise of 43 (0.83%), trading volume of 215,851 (a decrease of 68,473), and an open interest of 451,761 (an increase of 262). [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5360 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Kunming 5150 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Wuhan 5620 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Nanning 5330 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), in Bayuquan 5435 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Rizhao 5415 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Xi'an 5750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The corresponding basis was 150, - 60, 410, 120, 225, 205, and 540 respectively. [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of SR05 - SR01 was - 108 (up 5), and the spread of SR09 - SR05 was 4 (down 6), and the spread of SR09 - SR01 was - 104 (down 1). [3] - **Import Profit**: The quota - free price for Brazilian imports was 3921 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 4977 yuan/ton, with a spread of 383 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou and 341 yuan/ton compared to the futures market. For Thai imports, the quota - free price was 3966 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5036 yuan/ton, with a spread of 324 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou and 282 yuan/ton compared to the futures market. [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In the 2026/27 sugar - crushing season, the EU's beet planting area is expected to decline by 5% - 7%, and the sugar production is expected to drop from 17.1 million tons in 2025/26 to about 15.5 million tons. [5] - **Important Information**: Brazil's ethanol production in 2026/27 is expected to increase by 7.9% year - on - year to a record high of 36.5 billion liters. The increase may exceed the domestic market's digestion capacity and promote an increase in exports. [6][7] - **Important Information**: As of February 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 199 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, with a cumulative cane crushing of 87.029 million tons (an increase of 21.269 million tons compared to the same period last season) and a sugar production of 8.0634 million tons, with an average sugar production rate of 9.27%. [7] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar influence has declined, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production may exceed expectations, sugar prices have risen after falling to the previous low due to expected lower production and higher consumption. Domestically, the sugar price pressure is expected to ease, and prices are likely to oscillate at the bottom. [8] - **Trading Strategies**: For the unilateral position, expect a bottom - oscillating price for international sugar and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach. [9][10][11] 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between different regions and varieties, and basis and spreads of different futures contracts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND. [13][17][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over. The good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has eased, the overall reduction has weakened recently due to the good egg price performance. It is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3756, up 69 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3385, down 20; JD09 closed at 3863, down 9 [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 371, up 89; the 05 - 09 spread was - 478, down 11; the 09 - 01 spread was 107, down 78 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.66, up 0.03; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.68, unchanged. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.28, up 0.01; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.24, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.35, down 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. The average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin. Egg prices in different regions showed a mixed trend of decline and stability [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [2][7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The profit per feather was 18.89 yuan, down 3.62 yuan. The average price of corn was 2372 yuan, down 1 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3178 yuan, unchanged; the price of laying hen compound feed was 2.61 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices showed a mixed trend of decline and stability [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5]. - **Culled Chicken Data**: In the week of January 16, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of January 16, the egg sales in representative selling areas were 7391 tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week, at a historical low [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of January 15, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan. On January 9, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, slightly reduced from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, also slightly reduced [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic - As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over. The good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. The number of culled chickens in the main producing areas in the week of January 23 was 16.27 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age was 490 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous week. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton fundamentals remain strong, with an upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [5]. - In the short - term, the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range. For trading strategies, it is advisable to build long positions on dips for the single - side, and to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70 points; CY05 decreased by 150 points, and CY09 decreased by 70 points. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 118,425, and its open interest decreased by 4,804 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 25 yuan/ton, while the FCY IndexC33S price decreased by 349. Other spot prices such as Cot A, Indian S - 6, etc., had different changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In cotton and棉纱, there were various spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5,835, down 80 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 31, 2026, Pakistan's 2025/26 new cotton market volume reached 859,000 tons, a 0.6% year - on - year increase. Textile mills' purchases were 773,000 tons, up 0.2% year - on - year, and unsold new cotton was 54,000 tons, a 25% year - on - year decrease [4]. - As of January 31, 1,099 cotton processing enterprises in China conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 7.262 million tons. Among them, 1,018 enterprises in Xinjiang inspected 7.166 million tons, and 81 enterprises in the inland inspected 95,000 tons [4]. - As of January 31, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, a 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, 22.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and 3.3 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years [4]. 3.2.2 Trading Logic - There are reports that Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease by 266,000 mu to 3.621 million mu, a 7% reduction. However, several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang, which will benefit cotton consumption [5]. 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Remain on the sidelines [6]. - **Options**: Remain on the sidelines [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton traded sideways. As logistics began to take holidays, the trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened. Spinning mills focused on order fulfillment and inventory preparation, and the overall inventory decreased. The operating rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline, while that in Xinjiang remained high. The price of pure cotton yarn was stable, with some manufacturers testing price increases. Most inland spinning mills will finish their holidays around the 25th of the twelfth lunar month, and only a small number of Xinjiang spinning mills will take the Spring Festival holiday [7]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills reported a decrease in new orders. It is expected that the number of mills taking holidays will increase significantly this weekend. The finished - product inventory of cotton fabric mills remains high, and the price of cotton fabric is expected to remain stable in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2% [9]. - Yesterday, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today [10]. - Option trading strategy: Remain on the sidelines [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant content provided 3. Summary by Related Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 decreased from 753.5 to 741.0, a drop of 12.5 [2] - DCE05 decreased from 781.5 to 768.5, a drop of 13.0 [2] - DCE09 decreased from 764.5 to 751.0, a drop of 13.5 [2] Spread between Futures Contracts - I01 - I05 increased from -28.0 to -27.5, an increase of 0.5 [2] - I05 - I09 increased from 17.0 to 17.5, an increase of 0.5 [2] - I09 - I01 decreased from 11.0 to 10.0, a decrease of 1.0 [2] Spot Prices - PB powder (60.8%) increased from 777 to 780, an increase of 3 [2] - Newman powder increased from 777 to 780, an increase of 3 [2] - Mac powder increased from 773 to 775, an increase of 2 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - The spread between Carajás fines and PB powder decreased from 93 to 92, a decrease of 1 [2] - The spread between Newman powder and Jinbuba powder decreased from 47 to 46, a decrease of 1 [2] - The spread between Carajás fines and Jinbuba powder decreased from 144 to 142, a decrease of 2 [2] Import Profits - The import profit of Carajás fines decreased from -7 to -8, a decrease of 1 [2] - The import profit of Newman powder decreased from 50 to 49, a decrease of 1 [2] - The import profit of PB powder increased from 20 to 22, an increase of 2 [2] Platts Index - Platts iron ore 61% price increased from 102.0 to 102.3, an increase of 0.3 [2] - Platts iron ore 65% price increased from 118.0 to 118.5, an increase of 0.5 [2] - Platts iron ore 58% price increased from 93.4 to 94.0, an increase of 0.7 [2] USD Spread between Domestic and Overseas Markets - The spread between SGX main contract and DCE01 decreased from 4.7 to 4.2, a decrease of 0.5 [2] - The spread between SGX main contract and DCE05 decreased from 1.0 to 0.6, a decrease of 0.4 [2] - The spread between SGX main contract and DCE09 decreased from 3.3 to 2.8, a decrease of 0.5 [2]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/5 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7914 | -10 | -0.13% | 15,230 | 7.39% | 55,725 | 0.61% | | PK610 | 8232 | -6 | -0.07% | 80 | -25.23% | 2,693 | -0.88% | | PK601 | 8210 | -22 | -0.27% | 36 | -21.74% | 32 | 6.67% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7400 | 8000 | 8000 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - US corn supply pressure eases, expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. North China corn supply increases, with stable spot prices, while Northeast corn prices decline. The spot price is still weak in the short - term, but the purchase price at the northern port is strong today. North China wheat prices are strong, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn widens. The market is trading on the increased pre - Chinese New Year grain sales in North China, and there is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. Corn spot prices still have room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the decline of the 07 corn contract is limited [4][7][9]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increases, and Shandong corn spot prices are stable. Northeast starch spot prices are stable. Corn starch inventory has decreased this week. Starch prices mainly depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. North China corn is stable in the short - term, and Northeast corn is stable. Due to the end of pre - Chinese New Year stocking, corporate losses are expanding. The 03 starch contract oscillates narrowly following corn, and the spot price of starch stabilizes in the short - term. It is expected that the 03 starch contract will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509) and corn starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interests, and open interest change percentages are provided. For example, C2605 closed at 2273, up 2 with a 0.09% increase, trading volume of 272,543 with a 27.13% increase, and open interest of 829,931 with a 3.85% increase [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices are provided for different regions (Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, etc.), and starch spot prices are provided for different manufacturers (Longfeng, COFCO, etc.). The basis for both corn and starch is also given. For example, the corn price in Qinggang is 2135, with a basis of - 162 [2]. - **Price Difference**: Corn inter - period spreads (such as C01 - C05, C05 - C09), starch inter - period spreads (such as CS01 - CS05, CS05 - CS09), and cross - variety spreads (such as CS09 - C09, CS01 - C01) are presented, along with their price changes [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: US corn rebounds from the bottom but still oscillates at the bottom. The profit of imported foreign corn increases. The closing price at the northern port is strong, while Northeast corn spot prices continue to decline. North China corn supply increases, and the price is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn widens. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, and wheat prices are strong. The feed demand is stable, and downstream inventory increases. The 03 contract oscillates narrowly, and the spot basis strengthens. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Chinese New Year and downstream inventory building [4][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increases, and Shandong corn prices are stable. Northeast starch prices are stable. Corn starch inventory decreases. Starch prices depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. By - product prices are weakening but are still higher than last year. The 03 starch contract oscillates narrowly following corn, and the spot price stabilizes in the short - term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Go long on the 07 and 05 corn contracts on dips [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Reverse arbitrage on the 3 - 7 corn contracts, and widen the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Use the short - term cumulative put option strategy and operate in a rolling manner [11]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [15][16][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 5, ferroalloy futures prices generally rose. The silicon iron (SF) main contract closed at 5668, up 0.25% with a decrease of 16,573 lots in positions; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5884, up 0.27% with a decrease of 3,315 lots in positions [6]. - For silicon iron, on the 5th, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the output of sample enterprises remained at a low level, and there was a demand for technological transformation due to differential electricity prices in Shaanxi, so there was an expected decline in the supply side in the future. On the demand side, steel inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mills were expected to have seasonal production cuts before the Spring Festival. On the cost side, the electricity price in January was gradually settled, and the electricity price in Qinghai continued to rise slightly. The leading commodity varieties declined again, and the overall market sentiment was still fragile, but the cost support for silicon iron was strong, and the previously recommended long positions could be held [6]. - For manganese silicon, on the 5th, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the prices of semi - carbonate and Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port increased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. The manganese silicon spot was generally stable. On the supply side, the operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but some new production capacities were put into operation recently, and the supply side was mainly stable. On the demand side, as mentioned in the silicon iron part, steel inventories began to accumulate, and steel mills were expected to have seasonal production cuts before the Spring Festival. On the cost side, the manganese ore port inventory was generally at a low level, the port spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the overseas mines' quotes for March continued to rise slightly. The overall sentiment in the commodity market was still fragile, but the manganese ore cost support was relatively strong, and the previously recommended long positions could be held [6]. - Unilateral strategy: The cost support for alloys is strong, and the previously recommended long positions can be held; Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see; Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Information** - SF main contract: The closing price was 5650, with a daily change of - 4, a weekly change of - 86, a trading volume of 130,009, a daily change in trading volume of 36,892, an open interest of 89,527, and a daily change in open interest of 52,894 [3]. - SM main contract: The closing price was 5884, with a daily change of 16, a weekly change of - 42, a trading volume of 161,205, a daily change in trading volume of 42,354, an open interest of 350,906, and a daily change in open interest of - 3,315 [3]. - **Spot Information** - Silicon iron: The spot price of 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5440 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 40; in Ningxia, it was 5400 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 50; in Qinghai, it was 5350 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0; in Jiangsu and Tianjin, it was 5750 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [3]. - Manganese silicon: The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 20; in Ningxia, it was 5610 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 10; in Guangxi, it was 5750 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 50; in Jiangsu, it was 5800 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 50; in Tianjin, it was 5750 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 30 [3]. - **Basis/Spread Information** - Silicon iron: The basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract was - 210, with a daily change of 24 and a weekly change of 126; Ningxia - main contract was - 250, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 36; Qinghai - main contract was - 300, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 86; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia was 310, with a daily change of - 20 and a weekly change of - 40; SF - SM spread was - 234, with a daily change of - 20 and a weekly change of - 44 [3]. - Manganese silicon: The basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract was - 234, with a daily change of - 16 and a weekly change of 22; Ningxia - main contract was - 274, with a daily change of - 16 and a weekly change of 32; Guangxi - main contract was - 134, with a daily change of - 16 and a weekly change of - 8; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia was 100, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 30 [3]. - **Raw Material Information** - Manganese ore (Tianjin): The price of Australian lumps was 41.5 yuan/ton degree, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0; South African semi - carbonate was 36.3 yuan/ton degree, with a daily change of 0.1 and a weekly change of 0.1; Gabon lumps was 42.8 yuan/ton degree, with a daily change of 0.1 and a weekly change of 0.1 [3]. - Blue charcoal small pieces: In Shaanxi, it was 755 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0; in Ningxia, it was 805 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0; in Inner Mongolia, it was 745 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [3]. Second Part: Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Hold the previously recommended long positions as the alloy cost support is strong; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. - **Important Information** - On the 5th, the quote of Tianjin Port's semi - carbonate Mn36.48%Fe5.47% was 37 yuan/ton degree, Australian lumps Mn42% was 42 yuan/ton degree, and Gabon lumps Mn44% was 43 yuan/ton degree [8]. - UMK announced the manganese ore quote for China in March 2026: Mn36% South African lumps were 4.45 US dollars/ton degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 US dollars/ton degree [8]. Third Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, the monthly spread of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the spot price of silicon manganese, the electricity price of ferroalloys, the cost and profit of silicon iron and manganese silicon, etc. [9][11][14][19]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 02 月 05 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3190 元（-10），北京敬业 3130 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3260 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3160 元（-）。 1.Mysteel：五大品种钢材整体产量-3.27 万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比+9.56 万 吨，社库+49.68 万吨，总库存+59.24 万吨。 2.2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 2128 万吨，平均日产 193.5 万 吨，日产环比下降 2.2%；生铁 1915 万吨，平均日产 174.1 万吨，日产环比下降 3.0%； 2/ 10 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面维持震荡偏弱走势，煤焦领跌，钢材现货成交整体一般偏弱，环比 昨日略有好转。本周钢联数据公布，五大材整体减产，但铁水仍然增产，钢 ...