Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current situation features high inventory, weak spot prices, and limited upward momentum in the futures market. Short - term supply pressure has increased significantly, but long - term overseas supply may tighten. Demand is seasonally weak, and the current price has partly reflected negative expectations. In the short term, the price will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with relatively limited downside space [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: This week, New Zealand shipped 14 vessels (510,000 cubic meters) of logs to China, a week - on - week increase of 7 vessels (220,000 cubic meters). The arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports was 465,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 48%. However, the Canadian timber industry's capacity has shrunk due to US tariffs, and with the expected winter shutdown in North America, long - term overseas supply may tighten. Inventory continues to accumulate, with the total domestic softwood log inventory at 2.95 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Radiata pine inventory accounts for over 80%, concentrated in Shandong and Jiangsu ports. - Demand side: Demand is seasonally weak. The average daily outbound volume at 13 ports is 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The decline in outbound volume in Fujian and Hebei is significant. The capital availability rate of construction sites has increased slightly by 0.04 percentage points to 59.8%, but there are few new projects, and the transmission of terminal demand is limited [4]. Logic Analysis - On the spot side, the prices at major ports have dropped by 10 - 30 yuan per cubic meter. The price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang is 750 yuan per cubic meter, a year - on - year decrease of 6.25%. The overseas market price remains at $116 but has hidden discounts, and traders' willingness to accept vessels is low, with limited cost support. The short - term arrival volume surge and inventory accumulation on the supply side suppress valuation, and the seasonal decline in demand further weakens the upward momentum of prices. The current price has partly reflected negative expectations. If overseas shipments decrease seasonally or domestic terminal demand improves, the valuation is expected to recover marginally. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with relatively limited downside space [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Close previous short positions. Aggressive investors can consider buying a small amount near the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6]. Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - New Zealand log shipments: From November 17 - 23, 2025, the expected number of New Zealand log vessels arriving at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 vessels compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 30%. The total arrival volume was about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 48%. In October 2025, China's imports of softwood logs from New Zealand were about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of softwood logs from New Zealand were about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. In October 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 1.4836 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% and a year - on - year increase of 16.34%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 14.6481 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.35% [13]. Log Inventory - As of November 14, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%. North American log inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.00%. Spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.00%. - By province, as of November 14, the total inventory at 3 ports in Shandong was 1,954,000 cubic meters, an increase of 39,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The total inventory at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 836,562 cubic meters, an increase of 39,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The total inventory at 3 ports in Fujian was 52,923 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,810 cubic meters compared to the previous period [16]. Log Demand - As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 36,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 12,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.17%. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 24,400 cubic meters, an increase of 16,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 7.02%. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Fujian was 2,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 11,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 28.95%. - As of November 18, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points. Although the capital availability rate has stopped declining slightly and the construction progress of some projects in East China has accelerated slightly, the number of new projects is still small [22]. Log Prices - Radiata pine and spruce/fir prices: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter (6.25%). In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter (1.32%) and a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter (6.25%). In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,180 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter (9.26%) [29]. - Downstream timber prices: For radiata pine timber, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was also 1,260 yuan per cubic meter. For spruce/white pine timber, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,830 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [33]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine FOB price: In November 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was $116 per JAS cubic meter, an increase of $1 per cubic meter compared to last month. - Spruce FOB price: In November 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 1 euro per cubic meter compared to last month. In November, New Zealand log suppliers' quotes were firm, but domestic traders' willingness to accept vessels was low. There were many quote adjustments within the month, and some suppliers' offer prices had hidden discounts. It is expected that the FOB price of New Zealand radiata pine may be adjusted downward in December [39][40].

供需宽松，造纸市场承压 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分综合分析与交易策略 第二部分核心逻辑分析 第三部分周度数据跟踪 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 246/206/207 68/84/105 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 【逻辑分析】 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 ◼ 纸浆：国产浆新线持续释放，周度产量增至60.5万吨，11月针叶浆进口预计68万吨，环比微降1.4%，主流港口库存210万吨连续六个月超往年。需 求端分化明显，文化纸拖累持续，耗浆量环比下降；包装与生活用 ...

苯乙烯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 17 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 【交易策略】 单边：震荡整理 套利：观望 期权：观望 GALAXY FUTURES 2 纯苯：近期地缘局势维持紧张状态，美国CPI环比上升同时就业数据走弱，市场担忧远期需求前景，本周油价先升后降。本周纯苯供增需减， 港口库存下降。中石化纯苯挂牌价格稳定，纯苯现货价格重心小幅抬升，山东和华东两地纯苯价差缩小，目前内盘区域间套利窗口仍呈关闭状 态。供应方面，福海创、东明石化先后重启，盛虹炼化一套重整装置 9 月 7 日停一套重整，计划月底重启，大连福佳大化重整及芳烃装置计 划 9 月中停车检修，初步计划 1 个月左右，石油苯检修不多，供应相对充裕。新装置方面，山东裕龙一套裂解乙烯23万吨新装置和河南丰利 石化一套9万吨新装置计划 9 月中下旬投产， 9月中下旬河北荣特，山西晋茂、山西焦化、辽宁鞍钢、唐山迪牧计划重启，，10 月纯苯进口 量预计延续高位。供应预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The开工率 of coal mines is stable. As of December 6, the开工 rate of coal mines in Ordos is 76%, and that in Yulin is 46%. The coal production in Ordos and Yulin is around 4 million tons per day, but the demand is declining, leading to continuous drops in pit - mouth prices. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 380 - 460 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply of methanol is continuously abundant. The US dollar price is stable, the Iranian point reduction is decreasing, and the import parity is stable. Most Iranian plants are shut down due to gas restrictions, while the non - Iranian plants' operating rate is increasing. The import volume in January is expected to reach about 1.25 million tons. The MTO device operating rate has slightly increased. The port inventory has decreased, but the basis is still weak, and the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international device operating rate has declined, the port spot liquidity is sufficient, and the methanol market continues to be in an oscillatory state. The trading strategies are to gradually build long positions for 05 contracts on dips, hang on to the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage, and sell put options [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The raw coal situation shows stable coal mine operation, with the recovery of production in Ordos and Yulin. However, demand is weak, causing coal prices to fall. The supply of methanol is abundant, with stable profits from coal - to - methanol production and high - level domestic operation. The import situation is affected by Iranian gas restrictions and non - Iranian supply adjustments. The demand from MTO devices shows a slight increase. The inventory situation includes a decrease in port inventory and narrow fluctuations in inland enterprise inventory. The overall market is oscillatory, and the trading strategies are proposed as mentioned above [3][4]. 3.2 Chapter Two: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of December 4, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants is 76.19%, up 0.45 percentage points from last week and 2.18 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region is 86.48%, up 0.55 percentage points from last week and 1.44 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol plants is 68.26%, up 0.61 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From November 29 to December 5, 2025, the international production is 931,455 tons, down 42,240 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 63.85%, down 2.90% from last week [5]. - **Supply - Import**: From November 27 to December 3, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 376,000 tons, including 354,700 tons of foreign vessels and 21,300 tons of domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of December 4, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region is 87.48%, up 0.39 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate is 91.78% [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 7.88%, unchanged from last week. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 69.62%, with some plants restarting or having load adjustments. The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.91%, with some small - scale device adjustments [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 84,500 tons, up 33,500 tons (33,500 tons) from the previous statistical date, a 65.69% increase [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises is 361,500 tons, down 12,200 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 239,700 tons, up 9,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.90% increase [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of December 3, 2025, the total port inventory is 1.3494 million tons, down 14,100 tons from the previous period, with a 1,300 - ton increase in East China and a 15,400 - ton decrease in South China [5]. - **Valuation**: In the northwest region, the price of chemical coal has fallen, while the inland methanol auction price has risen. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 460 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The port - north line spread is 80 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong spread is - 130 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis is stable [5]. - **Spot Price**: The price in Taicang is 2080 (+90), and the price in the north line is 1990 (+30) [8].

丙烯期货周报 大宗商品研究所 温健翔 从业资格证号： F03118724 投资咨询资格证号： Z0022792 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 期权：卖看涨期权。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 第二章 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 【综合分析】 CP价格上调利好国内丙烷市场，成本端存支撑。周内丙烯负荷下降，工厂库存高位，东华能源（宁波）一期66万吨PDH 装置周内短停，巨正源共计120万吨、滨华新材料60万吨PDH装置12月重启，恒通化工、青海盐湖共计34万吨MTO装置 近期重启。国内丙烯负荷整体预计高位，丙烯进口减少，下游整体需求弹性仍显弱。高库存压制下，价格向上驱动不强。 【交易策略】 单边：丙烯价格受制于库存高企，目前供应端国内丙烯负荷仍然高位，上方空间有限，逢高做空。 套利：观望。 GALAXY FUTURES 3 丙烯涨后回落 n 本周丙烯期货价格涨后回落，截至周五，丙烯山东市场主流暂参照6020-6080元/吨，环比上周 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of PX, TA, EG, PF, and PR in the polyester industry chain are all expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, device maintenance, and raw material prices [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX**: Supply has increased with some domestic devices resuming load and an overseas device shutting down for maintenance. PTA demand has declined, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter and a de - stocking expectation in the second quarter. The short - term price is expected to be volatile. Trading strategies include a volatile unilateral position, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling wide - straddles for options [3] - **TA**: PTA supply is abundant with some devices planning to restart, and demand in the polyester industry is weak in the off - season. The inventory accumulation pattern persists, and the price is expected to be volatile. Trading strategies are a volatile unilateral position, a monthly - difference positive arbitrage, and selling wide - straddles for options [3] - **EG**: The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, demand in the polyester industry is weak in the off - season, and there is a large resistance to price increases. Trading strategies include a volatile unilateral position, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling wide - straddles for options [3] - **PF**: The supply - demand situation of short - fiber is weak, and the price follows the raw material end to show a volatile trend. Trading strategies are a volatile unilateral position, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [3] - **PR**: The supply of polyester bottle - chips is becoming more relaxed, demand is weak in the off - season, and the price follows the raw material end to show a volatile trend. Trading strategies are a volatile unilateral position and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [3] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **PX**: Supply is relatively loose before the maintenance. The price is supported by the upward trend of crude oil, and the decline space is limited. The price fluctuation is mainly affected by raw materials [5][7] - **PTA**: The load has decreased, supply is abundant, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The processing fee has weakened, and the valuation is low [9][11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply remains at a high level, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The basis has strengthened, the coal - making profit has expanded, and the oil - making loss has expanded [13][15] - **Polyester**: The load has weakened, and terminal demand has weakened seasonally. The profit of polyester filament has increased slightly, the production and sales have improved, and the inventory has decreased. The profit of short - fiber has shrunk, the load has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The profit of polyester bottle - chips is supported by the increase in raw materials, but the supply is expected to be more relaxed [20][22][24] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **PX**: Data on price, spread, profit, and supply - demand are presented, including the price trends of Asian PX and naphtha, various spread and profit indicators, and the PX start - up rate in China and Asia [27][32][43] - **PTA**: Data on price, spread, profit, supply - demand, and inventory are provided, such as the PTA spot price, various spread and profit indicators, the PTA start - up rate, and the PTA social inventory [48][51][68][71] - **MEG**: Data on price, spread, profit, and supply - demand are shown, including the MEG spot price, various spread and profit indicators, the MEG start - up rate, and the MEG port inventory [78][86][101][107] - **Polyester**: Data on profit, supply, and demand are presented, including the profit of polyester products, the start - up rate, inventory, and terminal demand indicators such as the开机率 of weaving and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [109][113][119]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week's view was that high prices were being resisted and spot price increases were losing momentum; this week's view is that downstream demand is slowing and urea prices are correcting [3] - Market sentiment has cooled as factory prices have been continuously raised, with mainstream urea spot factory quotes in major regions being weakly stable and trading lackluster [3] - Gas - fired plants are starting to undergo maintenance, with a daily output of around 1.95 million tons. The impact of the Indian tender on domestic exports is small [3] - In the short term, domestic demand is stable, agricultural demand is rigid, compound fertilizer production is rising, and urea prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, overall demand will be weak, and the urea fundamentals remain loose [3] - Trading strategies: for single - sided trading, short at high prices but do not chase short positions; for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: High prices are being resisted, downstream demand is slowing, and the market sentiment is cooling. Gas - fired plants are under maintenance, and the Indian tender has little impact on domestic exports. Short - term demand is stable, while medium - term demand is weak [3] - **Trading Strategies**: Single - sided trading, short at high prices without chasing short positions; arbitrage and over - the - counter trading, wait - and - see [3] 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply**: In the 48th week of 2025 (20251127 - 1203), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 86.70%, a 0.50% week - on - week decrease; that of gas - based urea was 65.12%, a 6.65% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 85.27%, a 1.40% week - on - week increase [4] - **Demand**: In the 47th week of 2025 (20251114 - 1120), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.20%, a 4.72 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 34.61%, a 4.29 - percentage - point week - on - week increase. As of December 5, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer producers in Linyi, Shandong was 1210 tons, a 18.24% week - on - week decrease. This week (20251128 - 20251205), the urea arrival volume in Northeast China was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons from the previous week. As of December 3, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.35 days, a 10.53% week - on - week increase [4] - **Inventory**: On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a 5.38% week - on - week decrease. As of December 4, 2025 (the 49th week), the port sample inventory was 105,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton week - on - week increase [4] - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is weak, the decline of Yulin pulverized coal has widened, the urea spot price has rebounded, and the urea production profit has expanded. The fixed - bed production breaks even, the water - coal - slurry production has a profit of 70 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production has a profit of 300 yuan/ton. The basis has converged to around 0 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 50 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data (Directory Items 7 - 20) - No detailed data content provided for these items, so no specific summary can be made.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of pure benzene is expected to fluctuate. In the short - term, geopolitical risks remain, and the supply and demand of pure benzene both decline this week. In the long - term, the new production capacity of pure benzene is large, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of styrene lacks upward drive as the downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, although the supply is expected to increase at the end of the month [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, sell out - of - the - money call options for options, and expect a fluctuating trend for single - side trading [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Pure Benzene Analysis** - **Supply**: Short - term geopolitical risks exist. This week, the supply and demand of pure benzene both decline, and the inventory at the main ports in East China increases significantly. Some domestic refineries have maintenance plans, but the overall supply is relatively stable in the later period. Imports will remain at a relatively high level in the next two months [5][9][11]. - **Demand**: The profits of downstream styrene and caprolactam have improved. The restart of some styrene plants is expected to boost the demand for pure benzene, and the production of caprolactam is relatively stable. However, the overall downstream start - up is weak, and the inventory of the main downstream products is high [5][15][24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect a fluctuating trend; Arbitrage: wait - and - see; Options: sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. - **Styrene Analysis** - **Supply**: This week, the arrival of styrene is concentrated, and the port inventory is stable. With the improvement of production efficiency, the start - up rate is expected to increase. New production capacity will be released this month, and some plants will restart at the end of the month, so the supply is expected to pick up [5][34]. - **Demand**: The processing margin of downstream products is compressed, and the demand enters the seasonal off - season, lacking upward drive [5][34]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market circulation of styrene is tight, and the basis is strong. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options for options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Change in the Price of Pure Benzene**: In mid - November, the improvement of US gasoline blending demand led to a decrease in US pure benzene supply and an increase in prices. Recently, with the decline of the US gasoline cracking spread and the recovery of gasoline inventory, the profit of toluene disproportionation has been repaired, and the enthusiasm for gasoline blending has declined [7][8]. - **Supply and Demand of Pure Benzene**: The import of pure benzene is concentrated, and the inventory at ports has increased. Some domestic refineries have reduced production due to the weakening of disproportionation profit, but the overall supply is relatively stable. The downstream start - up is weak, but the profit has been repaired to some extent [5][9][11][15][17]. - **Supply and Demand of Styrene**: The port inventory of styrene is high, but it is expected to decrease in December. The supply is expected to increase at the end of the month, while the downstream demand is weak, and the profit of 3S products is compressed [5][32][34][36]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **3.1 Pure Benzene** - **Industrial Chain Price**: Tracks the spot prices of pure benzene in East China, styrene in East China, EPS, PS, and ABS [45]. - **External Price**: Tracks the CFR price of pure benzene in China, FOB prices in South Korea, the US, and Rotterdam [48]. - **Price Difference between Varieties**: Tracks the price differences between pure benzene and naphtha (external market), styrene and pure benzene (external and internal markets) [50]. - **Regional Price Difference**: Tracks the price differences between Shandong and East China, China and South Korea, and the US and South Korea for pure benzene [55]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: Tracks the production profit of pure benzene, the production profit of styrene by ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, and the profits of downstream products such as phenol, adipic acid, caprolactam, and aniline [59][60]. - **Start - up Rate**: Tracks the start - up rates of pure benzene, hydro - benzene, and downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid [66][71]. - **Port Inventory**: Tracks the port inventory of pure benzene [67]. - **3.2 Styrene** - **Internal and External Prices**: Tracks the spot price of styrene in East China, CFR price in China, and FOB prices in South Korea, the US, and Rotterdam [75]. - **External Price Difference**: Tracks the price differences between the internal and external markets of styrene, and between China and the US, South Korea, and Rotterdam [78]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: Tracks the production profit of styrene by ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, POSM profit, and the profits of downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS [80]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up**: Tracks the start - up rates of styrene, PS, ABS, EPS, and phenol [82][83]. - **Port Inventory**: Tracks the port inventories of styrene in East China, South China, and overall [86].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term valuation of the timber market is weak, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The spot price shows regional differentiation, and the downstream construction timber price remains stable for the time being, forming a bottom support. In the medium - to - long - term, global timber supply faces contraction pressure, while the progress of interest rate decline and housing market recovery on the demand side needs attention [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Fundamental Analysis - In November, New Zealand's timber shipment volume decreased seasonally compared to October, and this week's direct shipment volume to China decreased by 108,000 cubic meters. However, the arrival volume of New Zealand logs at 13 domestic ports increased by 80% to 391,000 cubic meters, and later arrivals will be concentrated in Shandong. In addition, Jiangsu ports have tightened inspections on imported Japanese cryptomeria, and it is expected that the supply of Japanese cryptomeria will be tightened. The overall demand is weak, with the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports decreasing by 4.81% week - on - week. Only some regions such as Jiangsu and Guangdong saw an increase in outbound volume. The capital availability rate of construction sites decreased slightly, and there was no obvious boost in demand for both housing construction and non - housing construction projects. The inventory continued the slight destocking trend, with the total inventory at 2.97 million cubic meters (a 1.98% week - on - week decrease). The inventory of radiata pine and North American timber decreased, while the inventory of spruce/fir remained flat, and the overall inventory pressure was moderately relieved [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can place a small number of long orders near the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6] Core Logic Analysis - The short - term valuation of the timber market is weak, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The spot price shows regional differentiation. The radiata pine price in Rizhao, Shandong is firm at 750 yuan per cubic meter, while the price in Taicang, Jiangsu decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 740 yuan per cubic meter. The downstream construction timber price remains stable for the time being, forming a bottom support. In December, the foreign market price decreased by 2% month - on - month, and the stronger RMB increased the purchasing power of traders, partially offsetting the cost pressure on the supply side. In the medium - to - long - term, global timber supply faces contraction pressure, with Russia's forestry output potentially decreasing by 20% - 30% and Canadian enterprises reducing production temporarily. Meanwhile, the reforestation in countries such as China will optimize the long - term supply structure. On the demand side, attention should be paid to the progress of interest rate decline and housing market recovery [5] Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the number of pre - arrival New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 ships compared to last week, with a week - on - week increase of 30%. The total arrival volume was about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week increase of 48%. From November 29th to December 5th, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters of logs left the New Zealand ports for shipment, a decrease of 8 ships and 336,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. Among them, 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 108,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. In November, the monthly shipment volume decreased by 4 ships compared to October, showing seasonal characteristics but with a limited decline [13] Log Inventory - As of November 28th, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.97 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.98%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.45 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.39%. The North American timber inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.50%. The spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as last week. By province, as of November 28th, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1,986,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 79,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 850,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 79,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 52,478 cubic meters, an increase of 21,511 cubic meters compared to the previous period [16] Log Demand - As of November 28th, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 61,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,100 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.81%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 30,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 5,500 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 15.32%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 26,200 cubic meters, an increase of 2,600 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 11.02%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 2,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 800 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 24.24%. As of December 2nd, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.49%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points week - on - week. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.59%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points week - on - week; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 54.02%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points week - on - week [20] Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, remaining the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan per cubic meter, or 5.06%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter compared to last week, or 1.33%, and a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan per cubic meter, or 7.50%. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,180 yuan per cubic meter, remaining the same as last week and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter, or 9.26% [24] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, and the same in the Jiangsu market. Taking 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,850 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [28] Import Log Costs - As of the time of publication, the December foreign market price has moved down compared to the November quotation, with the quotation range being 110 - 116. Some foreign merchants have continuously reduced prices for multiple rounds, and traders tend to expect the foreign market price to be in the 112 - 113 range [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent core events and market review show that the export of Indonesian palm oil from January to October 2025 increased by 7.83% year - on - year, and traders expect India's edible oil imports in November to decline by 11.5% month - on - month. This week, the performance of oils and fats was significantly differentiated. Palm oil showed an overall oscillating upward trend, while rapeseed oil fluctuated and declined after reaching the upper limit of the range. [4] - Malaysia's palm oil may experience production cuts and inventory accumulation in November. Later, as the production areas gradually enter the production - cut season, its inventory will gradually decrease, but the speed is expected to be slow. Indonesia's inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the origin quotations are stable with a slight increase. Currently, the inventory of soybean oil has reached an inflection point and is gradually decreasing, but the market lacks driving forces, and its price mainly fluctuates following the overall trend of oils and fats. In the short term, due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited rapeseed oil imports, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, which still provides some support for rapeseed oil prices. [4][25] - Overall, short - term oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces and are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. [27] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market 3.1.1 Malaysia's Palm Oil - Estimated institutions predict that Malaysia's palm oil production in November will decrease by 3% month - on - month to 1.98 million tons, exports will sharply decrease by 15% to 1.44 million tons, and inventory will accumulate to around 2.7 million tons, reaching a high level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to next week's MPOB report. [9] 3.1.2 Indonesia's Palm Oil - Indonesian Bureau of Statistics data shows that the export of Indonesian palm oil in October was 1.91 million tons, and from January to October, the export volume was 19.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. ITS data shows that the export volume in October was around 2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%, but the overall data from ITS shows a decreasing trend. From January to October, the export volume was 20.35 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. In terms of different countries, the export volume to Africa increased by about 30%. [9] 3.1.3 India's Edible Oil Market - Traders expect India's edible oil imports in November to decline by 11.5% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons, reaching a seven - month low. Among them, palm oil imports slightly increased by 4.6% month - on - month to 630,000 tons, soybean oil imports may decrease by 12% to 400,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 44% to 145,000 tons. The market expects that India's edible oil imports in the 25/26 season will continue to increase to over 17 million tons. Among them, soybean oil imports may decrease year - on - year but remain at a relatively high level, while palm oil imports will increase from 7.5 million to 9.3 million tons, showing a large increase. There are rumors that India has cancelled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders originally scheduled for delivery from December to January. Currently, the international price difference between soybean oil and palm oil continues to widen, and the cost - effectiveness of palm oil is gradually emerging, which is conducive to an increase in palm oil procurement to some extent. [12] 3.2 Domestic Market 3.2.1 Domestic Palm Oil - As of November 28, 2025 (week 48), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 653,500 tons, a decrease of 13,600 tons or 2.04% compared with last week. Recently, palm oil inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin quotations are relatively stable, and the inversion of import profits has narrowed to around - 200. There are rumors of two ship purchases this week. The basis is stable with a slight decline. In the short term, oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces. Palm oil is in a long - short game between the positive factor of production cuts caused by flood impacts and the suppression of relatively high inventory. Overall, palm oil is still in a range - bound bottom - grinding stage in the short term, and one can consider buying on dips and conducting high - selling and low - buying range operations. [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1788 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons or 0.09% compared with last week. Currently, soybean oil inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, but the inventory inflection point has been reached, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. Domestic demand is average, and trading has become dull. Traders mainly execute contracts. Later, as the arrival of soybeans gradually decreases and soybean crushing volume declines from a high level, soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but overall inventory is still sufficient. In the short term, domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the price increase is relatively weak, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. One can try to go long with a light position after the price stabilizes following a pullback. Attention should be paid to next week's USDA report. [20] 3.2.3 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 368,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with last week. It is still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil remains stable at around $1,100, and the inversion of import profits for European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,000. There are rumors of rapeseed oil imports this week. The basis of rapeseed oil remains at a high level, and the quotations in Sichuan and Chongqing regions are relatively high, but the downstream acceptance is general. It is expected that the inventory - decreasing trend in coastal areas will continue. In the short term, the overall increase of oils and fats is weak. Currently, the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. Due to insufficient rapeseed supply, high import costs, and the continuous marginal decrease of rapeseed oil inventory, there is still some support for rapeseed oil prices. Without a full - scale relaxation of rapeseed procurement, rapeseed oil may maintain range - bound oscillations. One can consider buying on dips at the lower limit of the range for OI03 or 05 contracts and conducting high - selling and low - buying range operations. [23] 3.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral strategy: Short - term oils and fats lack continuous positive driving forces and are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. One can consider high - selling and low - buying range operations. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see. [27]