Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Financial Derivatives**: Stock index futures are expected to remain volatile, with leading stocks' attempts to rise making large - cap indexes perform strongly. Treasury bond futures may rebound in the short - term [17][22]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal prices are generally supported, while sugar shows different trends internationally and domestically. The oil and fat sector continues to oscillate, and various agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [24][27][33]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices oscillate within a range, and the double - coking market sentiment is weak. Iron ore should be treated with a bearish mindset, and ferroalloys oscillate at the bottom [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals maintain a strong trend, and base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc have different price trends affected by factors like interest - rate cut expectations and supply - demand [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices have rebounded after touching the bottom, and various chemical products have their own price trends based on supply - demand and other factors [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the market rebounded and then fell back. Indexes showed differentiation, and trading volume and open interest decreased. It is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see, conduct IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buy option strategy [17][19][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures fell sharply. The sharp adjustment may be due to rumors of new public - fund regulations. In the short - term, it is recommended to moderately bet on the oversold rebound and go long at low positions [22]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes rose. In the international market, the supply of soybeans is abundant, and domestic soybean meal has price support. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions in soybean and rapeseed meal [25][26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices continued to rise, and domestic sugar prices oscillated within a range. It is recommended to build long positions at low positions in the short - term and conduct long January and short May arbitrage [28][31][32]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The Malaysian palm oil has an expected increase in production and weak exports in November. Palm oil oscillates weakly, and soybean oil follows the overall trend. It is recommended to conduct short - term band operations or wait and see [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot is strong, and the futures oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn on dips, wait and see for the 01 - month corn, and wait for dips for the 05 - and 07 - month corn [36][38]. - **Pigs**: The pressure of pig slaughter is still high, and it is recommended to wait and see and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [39][40]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices rose, and the futures rose significantly. It is recommended to short the 01 - month peanut lightly at high positions and conduct 15 - month peanut reverse arbitrage [41][42]. - **Eggs**: Egg demand is average, and prices are mainly stable. It is recommended to build long positions in the January contract at low positions [44][46][47]. - **Apples**: Apple demand is average, and prices are mainly stable. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals have few contradictions, and cotton prices mainly oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [53][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices oscillate within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. It is recommended to maintain the oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures [56][57]. - **Double - Coking**: The market sentiment is still weak, and it is recommended to gradually take profits on short positions and continue to hold the 1/5 coking coal reverse arbitrage [58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: It should be treated with a bearish mindset, and it is recommended to be bearish at high positions [60][61][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: Prices oscillate at the bottom under the trend of production reduction. It is recommended to expect bottom - oscillating and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [64][65]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver maintain a strong trend. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average and buy out - of - the - money call options [67][68][70]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are supported by the increasing expectation of US interest - rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton [71][72][74]. - **Alumina**: Substantial production cuts have not been realized. It is recommended to expect the price to be weak and wait and see [75][76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rise with the external market. It is recommended to oscillate strongly with the external market and pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China [77][78][79]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It runs strongly with aluminum prices. It is recommended to run strongly with aluminum prices and wait and see [80][82][83]. - **Zinc**: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to hold profitable long positions and be vigilant about the impact of overseas funds [84][86]. - **Lead**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous profitable short positions and pay attention to the capital flow [87][88][89]. - **Nickel**: Production cuts stimulate the rebound of nickel prices, but inventory suppresses the height. It is recommended to be a short - position configuration [90][93]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and it follows the raw - material rebound. It is recommended to be a short - position configuration and sell out - of - the - money call options [91][94]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It oscillates within a range, and long positions should be held at this price. It is recommended to hold long positions, conduct Si2601, Si2602 cash - and - carry arbitrage, and sell put options [95][97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is strong in the short - term. It is recommended to try shorting after the price rises again and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [98]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties still exist, and oil prices have rebounded after touching the bottom [16]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as asphalt oscillating narrowly, fuel oil with different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur, etc. [16].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2][3] - Report Date: November 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [5] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price at 5,324, down 12 (-0.22%), volume 2,135 (down 1,537), open interest 19,534 (up 659) [6] - SR01: Closing price at 5,379, down 8 (-0.15%), volume 153,464 (up 18,087), open interest 394,080 (down 12,249) [6] - SR05: Closing price at 5,309, down 16 (-0.30%), volume 41,612 (up 12,801), open interest 190,753 (up 11,365) [6] Spot Market - Sugar prices in different regions: Liuzhou at 5,615, Kunming at 5,480 (down 20), Wuhan at 5,960, Nanning at 0, Bayuquan at 6,015, Rizhao at 5,800, Xi'an at 6,100 [6] - Basis: Liuzhou at 236, Kunming at 101, Wuhan at 581, Bayuquan at 636, Rizhao at 421, Xi'an at 721 [6] Spread Analysis - SR05 - SR01: Spread at -70, down 8; SR09 - SR05: Spread at 15, up 4; SR09 - SR01: Spread at -55, down 4 [6] Import Profit Analysis - Brazil import: ICE主力 at 14.77, premium at (0.19), freight at 37.75, in - quota price at 4,059, out - of - quota price at 5,158, spread with Liuzhou at 457, with Rizhao at 642, with futures at 221 [6] - Thailand import: ICE主力 at 14.77, premium at 0.89, freight at 18.00, in - quota price at 4,108, out - of - quota price at 5,221, spread with Liuzhou at 394, with Rizhao at 579, with futures at 158 [6] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - Brazil: Expected 11 - month first - half sugarcane crushing at 18.85 million tons (down 14.9% yoy), sugar production at 1.075 million tons (up 18.9% yoy), and sugar - making ratio at 41.94% [8] - Yunnan: 7 sugar mills have started crushing in 2025/26 season (3 more than last year), planned capacity at 24,100 tons/day (up 13,100 tons/day), 4 more mills to start soon [9] - New season starts: Menglian Changyu Sugar Industry's new season begins on November 23 [10] Logical Analysis - International: Brazil's sugar production may be lower than expected, supply pressure eases, international sugar prices show signs of bottoming, short - term slightly bullish [11] - Domestic: New season production increases, but import restrictions and high production costs support prices, current price may not fall much further [11] Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider short - term long positions at low prices [12] - Arbitrage: Long January, short May [13] - Options: Sell put options at low levels [13] Group 4: Related Charts - Charts include Guangxi and Yunnan inventory, sales - to - production ratio, Liuzhou sugar price, price spreads, and basis for different contract months [14][18][21][27][28][31]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily of November 26, 2024, focusing on the cotton and cotton yarn markets [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13625 with a decrease of 20, and its trading volume was 172,621 with a decrease of 65278 [2] Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as the CCIndex3128B at 14882 yuan/ton with an increase of 89, and the CY IndexC32S at 20660 yuan/ton with no change [2] Spread Market - Different spreads, including cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - product spreads, are given. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton is 40 with a decrease of 25, and the CY01 - CF01 spread is 6445 with an increase of 25 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - The average temperature and rainfall in the main US cotton - producing areas have increased. As of November 23, the cotton harvest rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states is 79%, slower than last year and the five - year average. The 2025/26 cotton prices and transaction basis in Xinjiang are also reported [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate within a limited range [5] Trading Strategies - For the single - side trading, it is expected that US cotton will fluctuate within a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will also show a fluctuating trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The night - session of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a fluctuating trend. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders. The inventory of pure cotton yarn continued to rise. The price of pure cotton yarn was stable with a weakening trend. The demand for all - cotton clothing grey cloth was weak [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - The data of several cotton options contracts, including the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other indicators, are provided. For example, the CF601C13400.CZC contract closed at 183.00 with a 71.0% increase, and its implied volatility was 6.7% [11] Volatility and Strategy - The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly. The implied volatilities of different options contracts are reported. The PCR values of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for options trading [11][12][13] Group 5: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts showing the spreads between domestic and foreign cotton markets, cotton basis at different months, spreads between cotton and cotton yarn, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [14][18][23][25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. It is expected that the speed of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term. Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per catty, the January main contract has given a certain premium. However, considering that the downward space is relatively limited as the pre - holiday stocking approaches, it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main producing areas is 2.9 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.12 yuan per catty, both remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The national mainstream price remains stable, and the egg prices in major markets in Beijing remain stable. The egg prices in Northeast China, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Anhui are generally stable [4]. - In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in sample enterprises in October was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production from November 2025 to February 2026 is 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - In the week of November 21, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 20.21 million, an increase of 3.8% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 492 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - As of the week of November 21, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7,472 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week [5]. - As of November 13, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.15 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week. On November 6, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 6.1 yuan per bird, a decrease of 1.19 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - As of the week of November 21, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. - Today, the price of culled chickens in the whole country has increased, and the average price in the main producing areas is 3.81 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [6]. 2. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. It is expected that the speed of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term. The January main contract has given a certain premium, and considering the approaching pre - holiday stocking, the downward space is relatively limited, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Consider building long positions in the January contract on dips [8]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the spot price of eggs in the main producing areas, the spot price of eggs in the main selling areas, the price of chicken seedlings, the price of culled chickens, the feed cost of single - catty eggs, the inventory of laying hens in production and future inventory projections, various price spreads, and profit expectations [11][15][19]

甲醇日报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 研究所 能源化工研发报告 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡反弹，最终报收 2094（+24/+1.16%）。 1、单边：空单止盈 1 / 4 研究员：张孟超 从业资格号：F3068848 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017786 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1970 元/吨，北线报价 1970 元/吨。关中地区 报价 1910 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1940 元/吨，山西地区报价 2010 元/吨，河南地区报价 2080 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2170 元/吨，鲁北报价 2170 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2120 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 1990 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2080 元/吨，宁波报价 2060 元/吨，广州报价 2040 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 11 月 26 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 136.35 万吨，较上一期数据减 少 11.58 万吨。其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 8.03 万吨；华南去库 3.55 万吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Coal Daily, November 26, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] -从业资格号: F3068848 [5] - Investment consulting qualification certificate number: Z0017786 [5] - Contact information: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Group 2: Market Review - On November 26, port market coal prices were under pressure, with price ranges of various calorific value coal types generally shifting downward, weak trading volume, and a cold market atmosphere. For example, the 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 825 - 830 yuan/ton [2] - Different regions had different price ranges for non - electric enterprise coal, such as Inner Mongolia, Yulin, and Shanxi [2] Group 3: Important News - From January to October this year, national railways cumulatively transported 33.78 billion tons of goods, a year - on - year increase of 3%, reaching a record high for the same period. The average daily loading was 186,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 4% [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - **Supply**: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine start - up rates in the main coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 25, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin exceeded 4 million tons, and domestic supply tended to be loose [4] - **Import**: China's procurement demand weakened, while international coal prices continued to rise [4] - **Demand**: This week's demand was mediocre. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement was average, and India's procurement demand still showed no improvement. Power plant load increased, and inventories were relatively sufficient. Power plants mostly preferred long - term contract supplies, with low enthusiasm for market coal procurement. Port market prices fell slightly, and terminal demand boost was poor, resulting in limited market transaction activity [4] - **Inventory**: Railway transportation returned to normal. The average daily transport volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved cars by the Huhhot Railway Bureau was around 30 trains. Port inventory was generally stable, and as of November 26, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 25.12 million tons, returning to the high level of the same period. Coastal power plant daily consumption was low, but inventories continued to decline. Inland power plant inventories were at a moderate level [4] - **Outlook**: In late November, coal production in the main producing areas was low. The coal start - up rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, with a daily output of around 4.2 million tons, and supply tightened. Power plant inventories continued to decline, import profits emerged, coastal power plant procurement weakened, port inflow was high and outflow was low, and port inventory increased rapidly. The national temperature was relatively high, power plant daily consumption was low, and coal consumption was average, but coastal power plant inventories were lower than the same period, and they continued to make necessary purchases. Port FOB prices declined weakly. After the safety supervision at the mine pit was lifted, the coal mine start - up rate increased, production increased, and the demand for chemical coal was okay. Pit - mouth prices declined weakly. It is expected that coal prices will be weak in the short term [4] Group 5: Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts showing the inventory and daily consumption of different types of ports and power plants from 2022 to 2025, including national ports, Bohai Rim ports, downstream ports, etc. [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is generally strong, with prices fluctuating. The domestic soybean meal shows a rising trend, while rapeseed meal continues to rebound. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly expands, and the monthly spreads of both contracts decline [3]. - The current international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The US market is relatively strong due to increased exports, but the Brazilian new - crop soybean may face price pressure in the medium term [4]. - The domestic spot market is in a state of loose supply - demand. The oil mill's开机率 increases, the market supply is sufficient, and the inventory remains high. The market demand is increasing, but there is still a potential shortage in the long - term supply [5]. - The impact of macro factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [6]. - In the short term, the US soybean futures may fluctuate at a high level. The South American market has price support, and the international soybean market supply - demand is relatively stable. The domestic soybean meal may face price pressure in the medium - long term, and the rapeseed meal supply may still face pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Basis**: For soybean meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 3015, 2826, and 2938 respectively, with price increases of 2, 6, and 7. The spot basis in various regions shows a downward trend. For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 2439, 2387, and 2451 respectively, with price increases of 8, 2, and 1. The spot basis in some regions also decreases [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For soybean meal, the 15 - spread is 189 (down 4 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is - 112 (down 1), and the 91 - spread is - 77 (up 5). For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread is 52 (up 6), the 59 - spread is - 64 (up 1), and the 91 - spread is 12 (down 7) [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 576 (down from yesterday), and the 09 - spread is 487 (up from yesterday). The spot difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 468 (down 13), between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 370 (down 20), and between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 718 (down 3) [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **International Market**: The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, but the upside is limited. South American supply - side influence increases. Brazil's new - crop sowing progresses fast, with a generally positive supply outlook. Argentina's old - crop soybean has increased processing and exports [4]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 21, the actual soybean processing volume of oil mills is 2.3344 million tons, the开机率 is 64.22%, the soybean inventory is 7.1499 million tons (down 4.38% from last week, up 39.91% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory is 1.1515 million tons (up 15.97% from last week, up 49.47% year - on - year). The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply pressure persists [5]. 3.3 Macro Factors - The US government ends the shutdown, and Sino - US negotiations release positive signals, which boost the US soybean futures. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China improves the export prospects. However, the impact of macro factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean futures may fluctuate at a high level without significant improvement in exports. The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the price. The international soybean market supply - demand is relatively stable, and price changes are expected to be limited. The domestic soybean meal market has supply - side pressure, and the rapeseed meal supply may face challenges [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: Place a small number of long positions [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8]. 3.6 Soybean Processing Profits - The processing profits of Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date. For example, the February shipment has a spot processing profit of 52.57 and a change of - 2.52 compared to yesterday [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, domestic urea demand is limited, but with the new quota issuance, the impact of the international market on the domestic market increases. The acceptance of lower prices by downstream users has improved, and short - term urea is expected to be range - bound. In the medium - term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and urea is expected to be in a weak trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded, closing at 1654 (+21/+1.29%) [3]. - Spot market: Factory prices were stable with a downward trend, and trading improved. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On November 26, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.34 million tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons from the previous working day and 1.17 million tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.72% from 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - Shandong: The mainstream factory price was weakly stable, market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, raw material and finished product inventories were high, and new orders were scarce. Factory prices were expected to be weakly stable [5]. - Henan: Market sentiment was weak, factory prices followed the increase, trading volume decreased, and factory prices were expected to operate weakly [5]. - Areas around the delivery area: Factory prices were firm, market sentiment was average, demand in the Northeast increased, but new orders were weak. Factory prices were expected to remain stable [5]. - Overall supply and demand: Maintenance devices returned, daily output increased to around 20.4 million tons. On the demand side, the fourth batch of quotas was issued, and the impact of international prices on the domestic market increased again. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China basically ended, and the demand was declining. The inventory of urea production enterprises decreased by 7.33 million tons to around 1.36 billion tons, remaining at a high level [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6].

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 各品种地区现货价 品种 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8150 | 6 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8420 | | | | 8450 | 8320 | 300 | 0 | 270 | 0 | 170 | 10 | | 棕榈油 | 8440 | 80 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8390 | | | | 8510 | 8550 | -50 | 0 | 7 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mainstream shipping companies have successively lowered their spot quotes. The market is pessimistic about the subsequent freight rate levels, and the peak - season expectations have loosened. The EC futures market continued to decline significantly. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of shipping companies [7]. - The freight rate for December still has a downward adjustment expectation. The 12 - contract follows the delivery logic, and its valuation center is expected to shift downward as the spot price drops. The 02 - contract is still anchored to the 12 - contract with a certain discount, but the price difference between December and February is uncertain, depending on whether shipping companies will announce price increases in January [8]. - Geopolitically, the Israeli attack on Gaza makes the peace talks difficult, and it is expected to be difficult to resume shipping before the Spring Festival. The statements of shipping companies and the resumption rhythm after the Spring Festival need to be observed [8]. - In terms of trading strategies, for the single - side trading, due to the divergence in the landing expectations, the market is expected to remain volatile and weak, and it is advisable to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, wait for a callback and then enter the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage in batches at low prices [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Futures Market Performance**: On November 26, 2025, for different EC futures contracts, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1,622.4, 1,387.4, 1,072.2, 1,252.0, 1,386.1, and 1,055.8 respectively, with daily changes of - 27.6, - 66.1, - 54.2, - 86.0, - 77.9, and - 52.2, and daily change rates of - 1.67%, - 4.55%, - 4.81%, - 6.43%, - 5.32%, and - 4.71% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [5]. - **Price Difference Structure**: The price differences and their changes between different contracts are presented, such as the price difference between EC12 - EC02 is 235 with a change of 38.5, and the price difference between EC12 - EC04 is 550 with a change of 26.6 [5]. - **Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European Line index was 1639.37, with a week - on - week increase of 20.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.71%. Different container freight rates for various routes showed different trends, such as the SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa (USD/TEU) was 3557, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.76% [5]. - **Fuel Costs**: The price of WTI crude oil near - month was 57.84 dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.73%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was 61.9 dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.5% [5]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Analysis of Freight Rate Logic**: Shipping companies' long - term contracts have improved. As the traditional peak season in December approaches, shipping companies' quotes are gradually released, but the market has different expectations for the implementation. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote for Week 50 was 2200 dollars, 300 dollars lower than last week, which was lower than market expectations [8]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: From November to December, the shipping volume is expected to gradually improve. In terms of supply, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in November/December 2025 was 26.23/27.22 million TEU, and the average weekly capacity in January 2026 was 30.03 million TEU [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading should wait and see due to the uncertain market. For arbitrage, wait for a callback and then enter the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage in batches at low prices [8][9]. Industry News - Maersk's spokesperson claimed that the Suez Canal Authority's statement about resuming navigation in December was false [9]. - Maersk has not determined when to resume some flights through the Suez Canal [10]. - Ukraine has basically agreed to the peace agreement proposed by the United States, but some terms still need to be discussed [10]. Relevant Attachments There are multiple figures showing the trends of various indices and container freight rates, such as the SCFIS European Line index, SCFIS US West Line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes from Shanghai to various destinations [12][13][15]