Yin He Qi Huo
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银河期货煤炭日报-20251126
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 11:12
Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Coal Daily, November 26, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] -从业资格号: F3068848 [5] - Investment consulting qualification certificate number: Z0017786 [5] - Contact information: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Group 2: Market Review - On November 26, port market coal prices were under pressure, with price ranges of various calorific value coal types generally shifting downward, weak trading volume, and a cold market atmosphere. For example, the 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 825 - 830 yuan/ton [2] - Different regions had different price ranges for non - electric enterprise coal, such as Inner Mongolia, Yulin, and Shanxi [2] Group 3: Important News - From January to October this year, national railways cumulatively transported 33.78 billion tons of goods, a year - on - year increase of 3%, reaching a record high for the same period. The average daily loading was 186,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 4% [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - **Supply**: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine start - up rates in the main coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 25, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin exceeded 4 million tons, and domestic supply tended to be loose [4] - **Import**: China's procurement demand weakened, while international coal prices continued to rise [4] - **Demand**: This week's demand was mediocre. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement was average, and India's procurement demand still showed no improvement. Power plant load increased, and inventories were relatively sufficient. Power plants mostly preferred long - term contract supplies, with low enthusiasm for market coal procurement. Port market prices fell slightly, and terminal demand boost was poor, resulting in limited market transaction activity [4] - **Inventory**: Railway transportation returned to normal. The average daily transport volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved cars by the Huhhot Railway Bureau was around 30 trains. Port inventory was generally stable, and as of November 26, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 25.12 million tons, returning to the high level of the same period. Coastal power plant daily consumption was low, but inventories continued to decline. Inland power plant inventories were at a moderate level [4] - **Outlook**: In late November, coal production in the main producing areas was low. The coal start - up rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, with a daily output of around 4.2 million tons, and supply tightened. Power plant inventories continued to decline, import profits emerged, coastal power plant procurement weakened, port inflow was high and outflow was low, and port inventory increased rapidly. The national temperature was relatively high, power plant daily consumption was low, and coal consumption was average, but coastal power plant inventories were lower than the same period, and they continued to make necessary purchases. Port FOB prices declined weakly. After the safety supervision at the mine pit was lifted, the coal mine start - up rate increased, production increased, and the demand for chemical coal was okay. Pit - mouth prices declined weakly. It is expected that coal prices will be weak in the short term [4] Group 5: Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts showing the inventory and daily consumption of different types of ports and power plants from 2022 to 2025, including national ports, Bohai Rim ports, downstream ports, etc. [7][8]
粕类日报:国际市场整体偏强,价格震荡运行-20251126
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 11:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is generally strong, with prices fluctuating. The domestic soybean meal shows a rising trend, while rapeseed meal continues to rebound. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly expands, and the monthly spreads of both contracts decline [3]. - The current international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The US market is relatively strong due to increased exports, but the Brazilian new - crop soybean may face price pressure in the medium term [4]. - The domestic spot market is in a state of loose supply - demand. The oil mill's开机率 increases, the market supply is sufficient, and the inventory remains high. The market demand is increasing, but there is still a potential shortage in the long - term supply [5]. - The impact of macro factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [6]. - In the short term, the US soybean futures may fluctuate at a high level. The South American market has price support, and the international soybean market supply - demand is relatively stable. The domestic soybean meal may face price pressure in the medium - long term, and the rapeseed meal supply may still face pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Basis**: For soybean meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 3015, 2826, and 2938 respectively, with price increases of 2, 6, and 7. The spot basis in various regions shows a downward trend. For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 2439, 2387, and 2451 respectively, with price increases of 8, 2, and 1. The spot basis in some regions also decreases [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For soybean meal, the 15 - spread is 189 (down 4 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is - 112 (down 1), and the 91 - spread is - 77 (up 5). For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread is 52 (up 6), the 59 - spread is - 64 (up 1), and the 91 - spread is 12 (down 7) [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 576 (down from yesterday), and the 09 - spread is 487 (up from yesterday). The spot difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 468 (down 13), between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 370 (down 20), and between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 718 (down 3) [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **International Market**: The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, but the upside is limited. South American supply - side influence increases. Brazil's new - crop sowing progresses fast, with a generally positive supply outlook. Argentina's old - crop soybean has increased processing and exports [4]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 21, the actual soybean processing volume of oil mills is 2.3344 million tons, the开机率 is 64.22%, the soybean inventory is 7.1499 million tons (down 4.38% from last week, up 39.91% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory is 1.1515 million tons (up 15.97% from last week, up 49.47% year - on - year). The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply pressure persists [5]. 3.3 Macro Factors - The US government ends the shutdown, and Sino - US negotiations release positive signals, which boost the US soybean futures. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China improves the export prospects. However, the impact of macro factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean futures may fluctuate at a high level without significant improvement in exports. The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the price. The international soybean market supply - demand is relatively stable, and price changes are expected to be limited. The domestic soybean meal market has supply - side pressure, and the rapeseed meal supply may face challenges [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: Place a small number of long positions [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8]. 3.6 Soybean Processing Profits - The processing profits of Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date. For example, the February shipment has a spot processing profit of 52.57 and a change of - 2.52 compared to yesterday [9].
银河期货尿素日报-20251126
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 11:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, domestic urea demand is limited, but with the new quota issuance, the impact of the international market on the domestic market increases. The acceptance of lower prices by downstream users has improved, and short - term urea is expected to be range - bound. In the medium - term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and urea is expected to be in a weak trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded, closing at 1654 (+21/+1.29%) [3]. - Spot market: Factory prices were stable with a downward trend, and trading improved. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On November 26, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.34 million tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons from the previous working day and 1.17 million tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.72% from 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - Shandong: The mainstream factory price was weakly stable, market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, raw material and finished product inventories were high, and new orders were scarce. Factory prices were expected to be weakly stable [5]. - Henan: Market sentiment was weak, factory prices followed the increase, trading volume decreased, and factory prices were expected to operate weakly [5]. - Areas around the delivery area: Factory prices were firm, market sentiment was average, demand in the Northeast increased, but new orders were weak. Factory prices were expected to remain stable [5]. - Overall supply and demand: Maintenance devices returned, daily output increased to around 20.4 million tons. On the demand side, the fourth batch of quotas was issued, and the impact of international prices on the domestic market increased again. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China basically ended, and the demand was declining. The inventory of urea production enterprises decreased by 7.33 million tons to around 1.36 billion tons, remaining at a high level [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6].
银河期货油脂日报-20251126
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 10:59
研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 各品种地区现货价 品种 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差(分别为:一豆、24度、三菜) | | | | | 豆油 | 8150 | 6 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8420 | | | | 8450 | 8320 | 300 | 0 | 270 | 0 | 170 | 10 | | 棕榈油 | 8440 | 80 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8390 | | | | 8510 | 8550 | -50 | 0 | 7 ...
银河期货航运日报-20251126
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 10:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mainstream shipping companies have successively lowered their spot quotes. The market is pessimistic about the subsequent freight rate levels, and the peak - season expectations have loosened. The EC futures market continued to decline significantly. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of shipping companies [7]. - The freight rate for December still has a downward adjustment expectation. The 12 - contract follows the delivery logic, and its valuation center is expected to shift downward as the spot price drops. The 02 - contract is still anchored to the 12 - contract with a certain discount, but the price difference between December and February is uncertain, depending on whether shipping companies will announce price increases in January [8]. - Geopolitically, the Israeli attack on Gaza makes the peace talks difficult, and it is expected to be difficult to resume shipping before the Spring Festival. The statements of shipping companies and the resumption rhythm after the Spring Festival need to be observed [8]. - In terms of trading strategies, for the single - side trading, due to the divergence in the landing expectations, the market is expected to remain volatile and weak, and it is advisable to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, wait for a callback and then enter the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage in batches at low prices [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Futures Market Performance**: On November 26, 2025, for different EC futures contracts, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1,622.4, 1,387.4, 1,072.2, 1,252.0, 1,386.1, and 1,055.8 respectively, with daily changes of - 27.6, - 66.1, - 54.2, - 86.0, - 77.9, and - 52.2, and daily change rates of - 1.67%, - 4.55%, - 4.81%, - 6.43%, - 5.32%, and - 4.71% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [5]. - **Price Difference Structure**: The price differences and their changes between different contracts are presented, such as the price difference between EC12 - EC02 is 235 with a change of 38.5, and the price difference between EC12 - EC04 is 550 with a change of 26.6 [5]. - **Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European Line index was 1639.37, with a week - on - week increase of 20.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.71%. Different container freight rates for various routes showed different trends, such as the SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa (USD/TEU) was 3557, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.76% [5]. - **Fuel Costs**: The price of WTI crude oil near - month was 57.84 dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.73%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was 61.9 dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.5% [5]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Analysis of Freight Rate Logic**: Shipping companies' long - term contracts have improved. As the traditional peak season in December approaches, shipping companies' quotes are gradually released, but the market has different expectations for the implementation. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote for Week 50 was 2200 dollars, 300 dollars lower than last week, which was lower than market expectations [8]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: From November to December, the shipping volume is expected to gradually improve. In terms of supply, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in November/December 2025 was 26.23/27.22 million TEU, and the average weekly capacity in January 2026 was 30.03 million TEU [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading should wait and see due to the uncertain market. For arbitrage, wait for a callback and then enter the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage in batches at low prices [8][9]. Industry News - Maersk's spokesperson claimed that the Suez Canal Authority's statement about resuming navigation in December was false [9]. - Maersk has not determined when to resume some flights through the Suez Canal [10]. - Ukraine has basically agreed to the peace agreement proposed by the United States, but some terms still need to be discussed [10]. Relevant Attachments There are multiple figures showing the trends of various indices and container freight rates, such as the SCFIS European Line index, SCFIS US West Line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes from Shanghai to various destinations [12][13][15]
生猪日报:出栏压力增加,现货继续下行-20251126
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 10:58
研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 【生猪日报】出栏压力增加 现货继续下行 研究员:陈界正 期货从业证号: F3045719 投资咨询证号: Z0015458 联系方式: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 生猪价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 今 日 | | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南(0) 山西 | 11.35 | 11.34 | 0.01 | (-100) | 11.04 | 11.10 | -0.06 | | 湖北(0) 辽宁 | 11.06 | 11.14 | -0.08 | (-300) | 11.14 | 11.28 | -0.14 | | 安徽(200) | 11.35 | 11.46 | -0.11 | 吉林(-300) | 11.21 | 11.33 | -0.12 | | 湖南(100) | 11 ...
银河期货花生日报-20251126
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 10:04
研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 | 研究员:刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号: F03107370 投资咨询证号: Z0018389 联系方式: :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 8126 | 192 | 2.36% | 44,059 | 43.13% | 19,822 | 2.30% | | PK510 | | 8278 | 72 | 0.87% | 229 | 308.93% | 686 | 7.69% | | PK601 | | 8186 | 250 | 3.05% | 220,896 | 123.58% | 128,388 | 19.62% | | 现货与基差 | | | ...
银河期货股指期货数据日报-20251126
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 10:03
1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report" dated November 26, 2025 [1][2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,248.45 points, down 0.02%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 177,550 lots, down 35,642 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 361,227 lots, down 6,709 lots from the previous day. The main contract IM2512 closed at 7,176.20 points, down 0.09%, with a trading volume of 125,795 lots, down 18%, and an open interest of 202,891 lots, down 8,427 lots [3][5] - The premium/discount of the main contract was -72.25 points, up 5.7 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -15.31% [5] 2.2 Main Seats - In IM2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,190 lots, down 1,259 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 11,393 lots, down 555 lots; Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,667 lots, down 1,113 lots; Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,984 lots, down 463 lots; and Zhongtai Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,540 lots, down 251 lots [18] 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,517.63 points, up 0.61%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 97,287 lots, down 11,646 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 259,294 lots, down 5,280 lots from the previous day. The main contract IF2512 closed at 4,493.00 points, up 0.42%, with a trading volume of 70,583 lots, down 9%, and an open interest of 155,905 lots, down 4,903 lots [23][24] - The premium/discount of the main contract was -24.63 points, down 7.23 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -8.34% [24] 3.2 Main Seats - In IF2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 22,074 lots, down 2,372 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 21,738 lots, down 471 lots; Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 10,136 lots, down 656 lots; Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,789 lots, down 905 lots; and Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,602 lots, down 816 lots [37] 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 6,965.05 points, up 0.15%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 106,970 lots, down 27,747 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 249,088 lots, down 9,043 lots from the previous day. The main contract IC2512 closed at 6,909.40 points, down 0.08%, with a trading volume of 74,334 lots, down 21%, and an open interest of 143,910 lots, down 8,529 lots [42][43] - The premium/discount of the main contract was -55.65 points, down 1.05 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -12.25% [43] 4.2 Main Seats - In IC2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 9,232 lots, down 1,975 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 6,639 lots, down 1,575 lots; Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,627 lots, down 478 lots; Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,480 lots, down 454 lots; and Huawen Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,714 lots, down 255 lots [53] 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 2,971.80 points, up 0.12%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 35,489 lots, down 8,377 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 86,208 lots, down 2,274 lots from the previous day. The main contract IH2512 closed at 2,964.60 points, up 0.14%, with a trading volume of 26,457 lots, down 19%, and an open interest of 58,010 lots, down 1,525 lots [59] - The premium/discount of the main contract was -7.2 points, up 1.8 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -3.69% [60] 5.2 Main Seats - In IH2512, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,245 lots, down 1,421 lots; Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 7,641 lots, down 1,879 lots; Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,047 lots, down 345 lots; Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,783 lots, down 1,038 lots; and Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,587 lots, down 365 lots [74]
玉米淀粉日报-20251126
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 10:01
研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2242 | 22 | 0.98% | 791,802 | -0.94% | 1,015,768 | 4.24% | | C2605 | | 2263 | -1 | -0.04% | 115,839 | 6.16% | 359,634 | 2.85% | | C2509 | | 2275 | -8 | -0.35% | 4,815 | 17.64% | 19,572 | 8.17% | | CS2601 | | 2556 | 21 | 0.82% | 159,970 | 1.28% | 254,397 | 5.23% | | CS2605 | ...
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251126
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:10
期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 26 日 0 / 44 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货:市场仍有反复 3 | | --- | | 国债期货:缺少共识,情绪转弱 4 | | 铅:区间偏弱震荡 21 | | --- | | 镍:减产刺激镍价反弹 库存压制高度 22 | | 不锈钢:供需两弱 跟随原料反弹 22 | | 工业硅:区间震荡,高抛低吸 23 | | 多晶硅:短期观望 23 | | 碳酸锂:资金情绪乐观 盘面延续强势 24 | | 锡:供应紧张,锡价支撑偏强 25 | | | | | 蛋白粕:国内库存维持高位 | 盘面震荡运行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖:巴西榨季逐渐进入尾声 | 北半球陆续开榨 5 | | 油脂板块:震荡行情延续 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉:现货偏强,盘面继续上涨 7 | | | 生猪:出栏压力体现 | 现货继续回落 8 | | 花生:花生现货稳定,花生短期底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋:需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 9 | | | 苹果:需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 10 | | 棉花-棉纱:基本面矛盾不大 | 棉价震 ...