期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 止盈观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开单谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡筑底 | ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 25 日 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,940.95 | 0.53% | | 深圳成指 | 13,486.42 | 0.88% | | 沪深 300 | 4,634.06 | 0.29% | | 上证 50 | 3,025.18 | -0.08% | | 中证 500 | 7,352.04 | 1.31% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 50,344.10 | -0.14% | | 道琼指数 | 48,731.16 | 0.60% | | 标普 500 | 6,932.05 | 0.32% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,613.31 | 0.22% | | 美元指数 | 97.9542 | 0.05% | | 人民币 | 7.0161 | -0.18% | | 纽约黄金 | 4,505.40 | -0.21% | | WTI 原油 | 58.35 | -0.05% | | LME 铜 | 12,133.00 | 0.65% | | LME 铝 | 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; Rebar for range trading; Glass to sell on rallies [1][5][7] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper for range trading; Aluminum to strengthen observation; Nickel to observe or sell on rallies; Tin for range trading; Gold for range trading; Silver to hold long positions, be cautious about new positions; Lithium carbonate to be in a strong - side oscillation [1][10][12] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC for range trading; Caustic soda to wait and see; Soda ash to wait and see; Styrene for range trading; Rubber for range trading; Urea for range trading; Methanol for range trading; Polyolefins to be in a weak - side oscillation [1][14][21] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn to be in a strong - side oscillation; PTA to rise in an oscillatory manner; Apples to be in a weak - side oscillation; Jujubes to be in a weak - side oscillation [1][23][26] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs to short on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts; Eggs to trade within a range; Corn to be cautious about chasing highs in the short - term, grain - holding entities to hedge on rallies; Soybean meal to be strong for near - term contracts and weak for far - term contracts; Oils to gradually close previous long positions, be cautious about chasing highs [1][28][34] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market situations, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and macro - economic conditions. It also analyzes the influencing factors and future trends of each product, guiding investors to make appropriate trading decisions. Summaries by Categories Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Influenced by policies such as the central leadership's instructions on central enterprises and the real - estate policy in 2026, the market's main line rotates quickly. After the recent positive and negative meeting supports end, index futures may trade sideways. Long - term bullish, buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: Affected by events like the establishment of the academic committee of the China Capital Market Society and the upcoming release of the loan prime rate, if the ultra - long - end yield does not reach a new high and the capital interest rate remains stable, the short - and medium - term interest rates may ease. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: The core contradiction lies in the game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal supports. With high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak downstream demand, and potential domestic coal mine production cuts, it is recommended to trade on the right side of the range [7] - **Rebar**: After the price rose and then fell on Tuesday, the valuation is neutral. With the end of important meetings and a short - term policy vacuum, and considering factors such as export policies and supply - demand conditions, the price fluctuation range is limited, and short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Glass**: With 3 - 4 production lines expected to shut down at the end of the month and an optimistic policy atmosphere, the futures price may stop falling and rebound. However, due to weak demand and other factors, it is recommended to take profits and wait and see [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The high - level negotiation results of copper concentrate TC/RC show a tight supply of copper concentrate. However, factors such as year - end capital tightness and high prices suppressing procurement limit the upside. Copper prices are in a high - level oscillation, and range trading is recommended [10] - **Aluminum**: Although the macro - atmosphere is good and some technical indicators are positive, the fundamentals are weak, with factors such as falling bauxite prices, increasing electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and weakening demand. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [10][11] - **Nickel**: The reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia and the price support from the Philippines are offset by factors such as the overall surplus of refined nickel and nickel iron. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [11] - **Tin**: With an increase in domestic production and imports, and a recovery in the semiconductor industry, but also a tight supply of tin concentrate, tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [12] - **Silver and gold**: Affected by factors such as the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the mid - term price centers of silver and gold are expected to rise. Hold silver long positions and be cautious about new positions; for gold, range trading is recommended and be cautious about chasing highs [12][13] - **Lithium carbonate**: With a supply increase and strong downstream demand, and considering factors such as mine production cuts and inventory changes, lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate strongly [13] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: With high production, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is in a weak supply - demand situation. However, due to low valuation and potential policy and cost impacts, it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level. Range trading is recommended [14] - **Caustic soda**: High inventory, potential alumina production cuts, and other factors suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to downstream procurement and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [15] - **Styrene**: Affected by factors such as crude oil geopolitics, pure benzene supply - demand, and port inventory, styrene is expected to trade sideways. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene in January and the change in the crude oil pricing center [16] - **Rubber**: With the end of the harvest season in Hainan, overseas supply pressure, and high inventory, rubber prices are expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [16][17] - **Urea**: With a decrease in production due to increased maintenance, a slowdown in agricultural demand, and a partial increase in industrial demand, urea prices are expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [18][19] - **Methanol**: With an increase in production and a decline in the methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate, and a differentiation in inventory between enterprises and ports, methanol prices are expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [20] - **Polyolefins**: With a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, PE is expected to oscillate weakly, and PP is expected to trade within a range. The LP spread is expected to narrow [21] - **Soda ash**: With stable spot transactions, an increase in production costs, and a potential easing of supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to wait and see [23] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With stable consumption and policy expectations for Xinjiang's planting area, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [23] - **PTA**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the rise in crude oil prices, and the supply - demand de - stocking situation, PTA prices are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the range of 4600 - 4900 [24][26] - **Apples and jujubes**: Apples' inventory market is stable but trading is light; jujubes' acquisition is nearing completion, and some prices are slightly loosening. Both are expected to oscillate weakly [26][27] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short - term, due to the balance between supply and demand, pig prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, although the production capacity is being reduced, it is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [28][29] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is expected to trade within a range. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is gradually easing, and in the long - term, the production capacity still needs time to clear. It is recommended that breeding enterprises hedge on rallies [31][32] - **Corn**: In the short - term, there is still selling pressure, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies. In the long - term, although the demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand situation in 25/26 is relatively loose, limiting the upside [31][33] - **Soybean meal**: Near - term contracts are expected to be strong, and far - term contracts are expected to be weak. Range trading is recommended, and spot enterprises can price at low points [34][35] - **Oils**: In the short - term, the three major oils are expected to stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to gradually close previous long positions and be cautious about chasing highs [35][41]

公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询 业务 资 格 ：鄂 证 监期 货 字 [2014]1 号 研究员 黄尚海 咨询电话：027- 65777089 从业编号：F0270997 投资咨询编号：Z0002826 苹果专题 产业服务总部 新年度苹果产量与出入库量分析 棉纺产业服务中心 2025-12-23 ◆ 报告要点 2025/26 年度，我国苹果由于天气原因，产量有所下降，品质较差，入 库量同比往年明显偏少。与此同时，今年由于柑橘价格较低影响，出库速度 也明显慢于往年。 风险点：宏观经济变化；天气因素；终端消费情况； 棉纺中心|苹果专题 2025/26 年度，我国苹果由于天气原因，产量有所下降，品质较差，入库量同比往年明显偏少。与此 同时，今年由于柑橘价格较低影响，出库速度也明显慢于往年。 一、2025-26 年度苹果市场特点 据中国果品流通协会专家杨杰总结，2025 年的苹果产季，遭受到前所未有的气候异常的影响，当前 我国苹果采收、收购、发运、入库、销售工作和往年同期大不相同，可以总结为以下 6 个特点： "少"。由于今年天气很不给力，加上果树老、果农老，品种老，效益不好，弃管很多，是今年苹 果果园产量 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - range - bound [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - sell on rallies [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or sell on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - hold long positions, be cautious on new positions; Lithium carbonate - bullish range - bound [1][11][12] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - range trading at low levels; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - bearish range - bound [1][18][20] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - bullish range - bound; PTA - bullish range - upward; Apple - bearish range - bound; Jujube - bearish range - bound [1][26][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Hogs - short - term short on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - range - bound; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually [1][32][35] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors like the Fed chair controversy, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, the market has a fast - rotating main line. After the end of recent positive and negative meeting supports, index futures may range - bound. Medium to long - term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: With the upcoming release of China's loan prime rate and the need to monitor the end - of - year fluctuations in the liability side of broad - based funds, treasury bonds are expected to range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: There is a game between strong bearish realities (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and weak marginal supports. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: After the major meetings, the market is in a policy vacuum. Although there are expectations of weakening steel exports next year, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, so range trading is recommended [9] - **Glass**: With factors such as stable supply at the end of the year, weak demand, and the fermentation of supply - increase expectations for soda ash, the glass market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival, and selling on rallies is advised [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight, but factors like year - end capital tightness and high copper prices suppressing demand limit the upside. Copper is expected to range - bound at high levels [11] - **Aluminum**: Although the macro - atmosphere is good and LME aluminum breaks through the resistance level, the fundamentals are still weak. Aluminum is expected to range - bound at high levels, and strengthening observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply surplus continues. With the uncertainty of the new RKAB policy on nickel ore supply, it is advisable to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be bullish range - bound, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Due to factors such as the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the medium - term price centers of silver and gold move up. Hold long positions for silver and trade in ranges for gold [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and the continuation of the de - stocking trend, and the risk of Yichun's mining permits, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be bullish range - bound [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to range - bound at low levels, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as high inventory, alumina production cuts, and winter high -开工 of chlor - alkali enterprises, it is recommended to observe temporarily [20] - **Styrene**: Due to factors such as the geopolitical situation of crude oil, the accumulation of pure benzene inventory, and the limited rebound space of styrene, it is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [20] - **Rubber**: With the end of the domestic production season, the overseas peak - production season, high inventory in Qingdao ports, and weak tire production, rubber is expected to range - bound [22] - **Urea**: With the decrease in the start - up rate, the weakening of agricultural demand, and the increase in industrial demand, urea is expected to range - bound weakly [23] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of domestic supply, the high - level and narrow - range fluctuation of methanol - to - olefins start - up rate, and the weak traditional demand, methanol is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to Iran's situation [25] - **Polyolefins**: With strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be bearish range - bound, and PP is expected to range - bound within a certain range [25] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus, rising costs, and the reduction of supply contraction, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With stable consumption and policy expectations, cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish range - bound [26] - **PTA**: Affected by the geopolitical situation of crude oil and the supply - demand de - stocking, PTA is expected to rise in a range [28] - **Apple and Jujube**: With stable market prices, slow inventory movement, and weak trading atmosphere, apple and jujube are expected to be bearish range - bound [28][30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: In the short - term, the pig price is affected by factors such as consumption changes and the slaughter rhythm. In the long - term, it is affected by capacity reduction. Near - month contracts can be shorted on rallies, and far - month contracts are cautiously bullish [32] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is range - bound. In the medium - term, the supply pressure eases marginally. In the long - term, the capacity clearance takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [33] - **Corn**: In the short - term, there is selling pressure, and it is necessary to be cautious on chasing highs. In the long - term, the demand recovers, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to policies and weather [34] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - month contracts are bullish on dips, and far - month contracts are bearish. Spot enterprises can price basis contracts or transfer positions [35] - **Oils**: In the short - term, oils have a sign of stopping falling, and long positions should be closed gradually. In the long - term, they may turn bullish [40]

长江期货饲料产业周报 2025-12-22 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 目 录 01 生猪：供需博弈，期价震荡加剧 ◆ 风险提示：生猪疫情、规模场散户出栏情况、需求表现、二次育肥和冻品节奏、政策 ◆ 期现端：截至12月19日，全国现货价格11.57元/公斤，较上周涨0.23元/公斤；河南猪价11.7元/公斤，较上周涨0.3元/公斤；生猪2503收至11325元/吨，较上周稳定；03合约基差 375元/吨，较上周涨300元/吨。周度生猪价格重心上移，前半周冬至备货和降温提振消费，价格震荡上涨，随后养殖端增量出栏，冬至备货高峰后屠宰量回落，价格滞涨；期货主 力03跟随现货先扬后抑，窄幅波动，基差走强，远月先跌后涨，震荡运行；周末现货止跌企稳。 ◆ 供应端：9月官方能繁母猪存栏量小降，10月在政策调控和养殖利润亏损背景下，产能去化有所加速，但仍在正常保有量3900万之上，叠加生产性能提升，在疫情相对可控情况下， 明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are weak, with domestic downstream demand entering the off - season and the开工 rate under pressure. Although the macro - atmosphere is good and many non - ferrous metals have risen, and technically, LME aluminum has broken through the resistance level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to strengthen the wait - and - see for both Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View - **Fundamental Analysis**: Domestic and foreign bauxite prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure. Alumina operating capacity remains stable, while electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increases slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand is in the off - season. The inventory of aluminum ingots supports the aluminum price, and the demand for recycled cast aluminum alloy is gradually slowing down. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to strengthen the wait - and - see for both Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [5] 3.2 Macro - economic Indicators - The content mainly presents charts of US Treasury bond yields, the US dollar index, and RMB exchange rates, but no specific analysis is provided 3.3 Bauxite - Shanxi bauxite prices are temporarily stable, while Henan bauxite prices have dropped significantly. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $69.9 per dry ton. Imported ore prices are expected to continue to decline due to increased supply, and $70 per dry ton is the key negotiation price for 2025 long - term contracts [11] 3.4 Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating rate was 83.6%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2724.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28.5 yuan/ton. The national alumina inventory was 458.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 102,000 tons. Alumina enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production [14] 3.5 Alumina Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of alumina basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume, without specific analysis 3.6 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.302 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons; the operating capacity was 44.494 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. Some enterprises have reduced production for technological transformation, while new production capacity such as Tianshan Aluminum and Zha Aluminum is gradually being put into operation [23] 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of aluminum import profit, Shanghai aluminum forward curve, aluminum rod processing fee, and动力煤 prices, without specific analysis 3.8 Inventory - The content presents charts of aluminum rod social inventory, aluminum ingot social inventory, SHFE aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, without specific analysis 3.9 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 59.8% week - on - week. Since mid - December, the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises have weakened, and demand has gradually slowed down. Environmental protection control in Chongqing has also restricted the recovery of the local operating rate [35] 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of aluminum profile prices, aluminum alloy futures forward curve, ADC12 - A00 price difference seasonal trend, and ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot import profit, without specific analysis 3.11 and 3.12 Downstream开工 - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 61.5%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 51.6%, and the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 65%. The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises has a pattern of strong expectations but weak reality, and the operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 60% week - on - week [47][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The polyolefin price trend was divided this week. The continuous decline in the PE agricultural film operating rate led the L main contract to seek the bottom unilaterally. The PP operating rate was decent, and the slight increase in the BOPP operating rate supported the PP main contract price. Overall, the fundamental situation remained one of strong supply and weak demand, and there was significant upward pressure on polyolefins as a whole. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6300 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate within a range, with attention on the 6200 support level. The LP spread is expected to narrow [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6320 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.56%. The average price of LDPE was 8550 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 1.54%. The average price of HDPE was 7012.5 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6605 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.42%. The LLDPE South China basis was 285 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.75%. The 1 - 5 month spread was -48 yuan/ton (-38) [12]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -48 yuan/ton (-38), the 5 - 9 month spread was -47 yuan/ton (-14), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 95 yuan/ton (52) [18]. - **Key Data Tracking - Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline [20][21]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.54 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.99 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.10 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (-30) [23]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was -279 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton from the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was -13 yuan/ton, an increase of 163 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 67.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. The maintenance loss this week was 9.86 tons, an increase of 0.87 tons from the previous week [32]. - **Key Data Tracking - 2025 Commissioning Plan**: A total of 543 tons of new polyethylene production capacity was planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already commissioned and some scheduled for December 2025 [35]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many polyethylene production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [37]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films was 45.18%, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging films was 48.96%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 31.00%, unchanged from the previous weekend [39]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films was the highest, accounting for 37.3%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data was significant, currently accounting for 8.6%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level [42]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 46.87 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [45]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11332 lots, unchanged from the previous week [48]. PP - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83% [52]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products showed different degrees of decline [54][56]. - **Key Data Tracking - Basis**: On December 19, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi was 6253.33 yuan/ton (-0%). The PP basis was 40 yuan/ton (-84), and the 1 - 5 month spread was -81 yuan/ton (-42) [58]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -81 yuan/ton (-42), the 5 - 9 month spread was -27 yuan/ton (16), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 108 yuan/ton (26) [63]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: The cost situation was the same as that of plastic, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreasing and anthracite price at the Yangtze River port also decreasing [68]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was -522.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 82.14 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was -576.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.40 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China was 79.40%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 81.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The weekly output of PP powder was 6.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.72% [75]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [78]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 53.80% (-0.19). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.00% (-0.06%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (+0.31%), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.50% (-0.05%), and the operating rate of pipes was 42.07% (-0.23%) [80]. - **Key Data Tracking - Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was -318.03 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.63 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was -1.18 US dollars per ton, an increase of 1.26 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week [86]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 53.78 tons (+0.13%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 1.73% week - on - week; the inventory of traders decreased by 4.34% week - on - week; and the port inventory decreased by 1.03% week - on - week. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 1012.13 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.59%. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 10.12 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.91% [89][95]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 10934 lots, a decrease of 4813 lots from the previous week [99].

01 主要观点策略 铜周报：铜矿长单TC落地，铜价高位整理 2025-12-22 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜高位震荡。截至上周五收至83180元/吨，周跌幅1.05%。宏观层面，美国11月CPI数据低于预期，虽短暂提振降息预期， 但对铜价的直接刺激有限，市场已基本消化年内货币政策路径。矿端持续紧缺，中国头部冶炼企业与Antofagasta敲定2026年铜精矿 长单加工费Benchmark为0美元/吨与0美分/磅。传统淡季下游需求放缓，铜库存累库叠加宏观缺乏指引下，预计铜价高位震荡运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 25-12-19 25-12-15 25-12-09 25-12-03 25-11-27 25-11-21 25-11-17 25-11-11 25-11-05 25-10-30 25-10-24 25-10-20 25-10-14 25-09-30 25-09-24 25-09-18 25-09-12 25-09-08 ...

| 品种 基本面分析 | 展望 | | --- | --- | | 板块综述：上周黑色板块触底反弹，双焦价格大幅上涨，基本收复前一周跌幅，品种间强弱关系为焦炭>焦煤>铁矿>螺纹>热卷。 | | | 宏观政策方面：商务部、海关总署公布对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，明年钢铁出口可能受此影响下滑，不过盘面低开高走，并 | | | 未对该利空充分计价，由于执行日期为明年1月1日开始，具体影响可能明年才逐步兑现。供需格局方面：钢材产量、表需同比都处于低 | | | 位，库存去化依旧顺畅，短期供需矛盾不大，随着铁水产量持续走低，压力逐步向原料端传导，焦炭提降第三轮，但铁矿价格异常坚挺。 | | | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格回升至电炉谷电成本以上，静态估值中性；驱动方面，重磅会议 相继落地，预期平稳，短期再度处于政策真空期，我国对钢铁实施出口许可证管理，钢材出口存 钢材 | 涨跌空间均不大，短线 | | 在走弱预期，但是具体影响在明年才会兑现，产业方面，上周钢材产量、需求双增，库存顺畅去 | 交易为主。 | | 化，短期供需矛盾不大。 | | | 上周原煤产量微增，煤矿持续累库。焦炭方面，随着铁水产量进一步下滑，钢厂原 ...