长江期货饲料养殖产业周报 2025-06-09 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：韦 蕾 执业编号: F0244258 投资咨询号:Z0011781 联 系 人：刘汉缘 执业编号: F03101804 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 目 录 01 生猪：供强需弱，期价承压 ◆ 期现端：截至6月6日，全国现货价格14.26元/公斤，较上周下跌0.36元/公斤；河南猪价14.09元/公斤，较上周下跌0.27元/公斤；生猪2509报价13460元/吨，较上周 下跌145元/吨；09合约基差630元/吨，较上周下跌125元/吨。周度猪价延续偏弱，养殖端出栏积极增加，而端午节后消费转淡叠加天气炎热，需求跟进乏力，价格继 续承压，但价格下跌至14元/公斤附近，抗价惜售和二次育肥进场仍存，价格低位有支撑。09主力周度震荡走弱，基差小跌，周末现货跌幅收窄，逐步止跌企稳。 ◆ 供应端： 2024年5-11月能繁母猪存栏量持续缓增，性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，5-9月供应呈增加态势，虽然养殖利润下滑，产能有所去化，但整体去化幅度有限 ...

长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-06-09 01 尿素：延续弱势 关注库存拐点 02 甲醇：利好驱动不足 或转弱运行 目 录 01 核心观点总结 尿素：延续弱势 关注库存拐点 01 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：价格：在尿素日产连续提升，农忙阶段性用肥空档期以及复合肥开工率下调的供需背景下，尿素价格大 幅回落。6月6日尿素2509合约收盘价1720元/吨，较上周下调53元/吨，降幅2.99%。尿素现货价格先涨后跌，河 南市场日均价1818元/吨，较上周下调10元/吨。基差：尿素期货价格弱势运行，主力基差表现走强，6月6日河南 市场主力基差98元/吨，较上周走强43元/吨。价差：尿素9-1价格整体呈现走弱趋势，6月6日9-1价差51元/吨， 较上周缩小19元/吨，价差运行区间为30-100元/吨。 2 ...

宏观影响交织 有色金属整体继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-06-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 | | 松江江头 LATION OF | S 不长江期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | | CHANGJIANG SECURITIES | CHANGJIANG FUTURES | | | 走势状态 | 行情观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位震荡 | 关税对铜价影响再度提升，中美元首通话也带来利多预期，铜价偏强，振幅扩大。基本面上，国内硫酸市场多区域上行趋势明显，炼厂生产得以维 | | | 铜 | | 持，精铜产量依然保持高位，但供应端的扰动及极低的TC依然对铜价有潜在支撑。目前铜社会库存低位企稳，市场消费呈现下滑趋势，炼厂则考 | 区间交易 | | | 77500 ...

碳酸锂周报 供应有所修复，价格延续震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/6/9 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，5月产量环比增加1.9%至73020吨。本周碳酸锂产量环比增加615吨至16013吨，4月碳酸锂产量环比减少 9%至71652吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂 计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进口方面，2025年4月中国锂矿石进口数量为62.3万吨，环比增加16.5%。其中从澳大利亚 进口29.8万吨，环比减少3%，自津巴布韦进口10.6万吨，环比增加82%，自尼日利亚进口8.9万吨，环比增加4%。4月碳酸锂进口量 为2.8万吨，环比增加56%，自智利进口碳酸锂2万吨，占比71%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to cautiously short sell. The 09 contract is recommended for either observation or short - selling with caution, considering the pressure range of 1,015 - 1,035 and monitoring whether the bottom - rising trend continues [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures rebounded from the bottom, mainly due to the cost - logic linkage caused by the sharp rise in coking coal futures, the profit - taking of short - side funds and bottom - fishing by long - side funds after the contract hit a new low, and the rumor of significant production cuts in Shahe. However, the fundamental factors such as supply and inventory of glass have not improved. The traditional off - season and the rainy season this week will still affect downstream demand. Technically, the upward breakthrough is insufficient, and it still faces the pressure test at the 1,000 mark, with a possible subsequent correction [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 02 - 03. Market Review - **Spot Price**: As of June 6, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,160 yuan/ton in North China (-20), 1,070 yuan/ton in Central China (-30), and 1,280 yuan/ton in East China (-20). The futures price of the glass 09 contract closed at 997 yuan/ton last Friday, down 12 for the week [9][10] - **Price Difference**: As of June 6, the futures price of soda ash was 1,212 yuan/ton, and that of glass was 997 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 215 yuan/ton (-3). The basis of the 09 contract was 33 yuan/ton (-32), and the 09 - 01 spread was -57 yuan/ton (+7) [11][16] 04. Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,598 yuan/ton (-6), and the gross profit was -318 yuan/ton (-14) [17] - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,143 yuan/ton (-5), and the gross profit was 17 yuan/ton (-15) [20] - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,208 yuan/ton (-6), and the gross profit was -138 yuan/ton (-24) [20] 05. Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 159,255 tons/day (+50), with 224 production lines in operation. Two production lines were cold - repaired at the end of the month, and two were ignited and restarted last week, resulting in a basically flat daily melting volume [21][22] 06. Inventory - As of June 6, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,975.4 million weight boxes (+209.2). Among them, North China's inventory was 1,005.1 million weight boxes (-125.9), Central China's was 820 million weight boxes (+54.2), East China's was 1,593.5 million weight boxes (+23.5), South China's was 1,060.3 million weight boxes (+8.2), Southwest China's was 1,300.3 million weight boxes (+41.3), Shahe's factory inventory was 308 million weight boxes (+37), and Hubei's factory inventory was 571 million weight boxes (+43) [34] 07. Deep - Processing - The sales - to - production ratio of float glass last week was 82.22% (-16.58%). On June 6, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.8% (-2.4%). At the end of May, the available order days for glass deep - processing were 10.35 days (-0.05) [36] 08 - 09. Demand - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of float glass last week was 1,027 million weight boxes, a weekly decrease of 211 [46] - **Automobile**: In April, China's automobile production was 2.619 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.387 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.213 million. Sales were 2.59 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.325 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.231 million [46] - **New - Energy Automobile**: In April, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 0.905 million, with a penetration rate of 51.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% [46] - **Real Estate**: In April, the completed area of real estate was 25.8758 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 28%. The new construction area was 48.3938 million square meters (-22%), the construction area was 66.0961 million square meters (-27%), and the commercial housing sales area was 63.9239 million square meters (-3%). From May 25 to June 1, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.14 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%. In April, the real estate development investment was 782.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [51] 10 - 13. Cost - Side - Soda Ash - **Spot Price**: As of June 6, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,450 yuan/ton in North China (-50), 1,400 yuan/ton in East China (-40), 1,350 yuan/ton in Central China (-50), and 1,600 yuan/ton in South China (-25). The futures price of the soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,212 yuan/ton last Friday (+9). The basis of the Central China 09 contract was 138 yuan/ton (-59) [59] - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,438 yuan/ton (-5), with a gross profit of 50 yuan/ton (-17); the cost of the joint - production process was 1,665 yuan/ton (+30), with a gross profit of 178 yuan/ton (-37) [60] - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 704,100 tons (a monthly increase of 19,000), including 382,200 tons of heavy soda ash (a monthly increase of 12,400) and 321,900 tons of light soda ash (a monthly increase of 6,600). The loss was 167,600 tons (a monthly decrease of 19,000). At the end of last week, the exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts were 4,273 (+2,582). As of June 6, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.627 million tons (a monthly increase of 24,700), including 837,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a monthly increase of 46,300) and 790,000 tons of light soda ash (a monthly decrease of 21,600) [76] - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 351,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 56,600; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 350,200 tons, a weekly increase of 20,400. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 99.62%, a monthly decrease of 8.04%. In April, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 24.2 days [79]

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-06-09 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝周报 01 周度观点 几内亚AXIS矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，博法地区两家矿企发货中断，另一家矿企仅依靠码头剩余库存维持发货。几内 亚矿端扰动尚未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击，其影响要等到7月份才能体现在进口铝土矿的到港量上。氧化铝运行 产能周度环比增加135万吨至9065万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比减少2.9万吨至313.3万吨。随着检修式减产产能的逐步复产，以 及部分新产能的逐步释放，氧化铝运行产能逐步回升。不过几内亚矿端扰动尚未体现到氧化铝的生产，影响仍不可忽视。电解铝运 行产能周度环比持平于4413.9万吨。四川省内铝企复产基本完成，贵州安顺铝厂剩余6万吨产能仍在复产，云铝溢鑫置换产能投产 中，百色银海技改项目12万吨产能将于三季度通电复产。需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比下降0.5%至60.9%。 光伏抢装机退坡和淡季逐步到来，铝下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Plastic - Market expectations are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term cost of international oil price increases may support the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the fundamentals maintain a pattern of high production capacity, low profit, and weak demand. It is expected that the plastic 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7100 [4]. PP - Inventory accumulates, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term cost of international oil price increases may support the price, but the supply - side benefits are offset, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulation exerts great pressure on the market. It is expected that PP2509 will maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the short term, with a reference range of 6850 - 7200 [6]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On June 6, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week. LDPE average price was 9216.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.55%. HDPE average price was 8062.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7414.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%. The LLDPE South China basis was 348.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 19.10%, and the 6 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton (- 27) [4][8]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.98 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.65 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.04 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of oil - based PE was - 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1212 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of Chinese polyethylene was 77.41%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 59.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. The maintenance loss this week was 12.04 tons, a decrease of 1.47 tons from last week [4]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 12.89%, a decrease of 0.09% from last week. The PE packaging film start - up rate was 48.89%, an increase of 0.30% from last week, and the PE pipe start - up rate was 30.83%, a decrease of 1.00% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 58.27 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons from last week [4]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 6 month spread on June 6, 2025, was 8 yuan/ton (a change of 35 yuan/ton); the 6 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton (- 27); the 9 - 1 month spread was 29 yuan/ton (- 8) [15]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different varieties and regions of polyethylene showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [16][17]. - **Cost**: Crude oil prices rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a low - level fluctuating trend. The anthracite market was weak [19]. - **Profit**: It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE and coal - based PE will run weakly [22]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate increased, and the output increased slightly. There were many maintenance losses this week [25]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Many companies have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 [27]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises had equipment maintenance, with different parking and start - up times [28]. - **Demand**: The agricultural film peak season has passed, and the start - up rates of packaging film and pipes are average. The market trading atmosphere is light [29]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: The production ratio of linear film is the highest, and there are differences between the current ratios of some products and the annual average levels [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises decreased [35]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 5254 hands, a decrease of 5 hands from last week [42]. PP Market Changes - On June 6, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The polypropylene market first fell and then rose this week, with the price center of gravity moving slightly downward and the amplitude narrowing [46]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.98 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.65 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.04 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of oil - based PP was 31.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.54 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PP was 914.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.95 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.44%, a decrease of 1.39 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 75.83 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 7.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.57% [6]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate was 50.01% (- 0.28%). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 44.70% (- 0.50%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.41% (+ 0.65%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 56.09% (- 0.08%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.13% (- 0.14%) [6]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polypropylene inventory was 60.51 tons (+ 9.36%), with an overall increase in inventory pressure. The inventory of two major oil companies increased by 11.03% month - on - month, the inventory of traders increased by 8.45% month - on - month, and the port inventory increased by 2.31% month - on - month [6]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of different PP products and related products showed different changes [47]. - **Basis**: On June 6, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 7380 yuan/ton (- 13.33), with a slight month - on - month increase. The PP basis was 455 yuan/ton (- 63), and the basis strengthened. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 57 yuan/ton (+ 1), and the month spread widened [49]. - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on June 6, 2025, was 9 yuan/ton (a change of 24 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 57 yuan/ton (1); the 9 - 1 month spread was 48 yuan/ton (- 25) [56]. - **Cost**: Crude oil prices rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a low - level fluctuating trend. The anthracite market was weak [58]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP and coal - based PP decreased [60]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate decreased, but the output of pellets and powder increased [64]. - **2025 Second - Quarter Production Plan**: Multiple enterprises have new production capacity plans in the second quarter of 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 427.5 [68]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' production lines have long - term or short - term maintenance, with many of the start - up times undetermined [70]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the start - up rates of different industries showed different changes [72]. - **Demand (Product Proportion)**: The proportions of different PP products showed different changes [75]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene was - 569.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 26.34 US dollars/ton from last week. The export profit was 6.78 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.52 US dollars/ton from last week. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [76]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polypropylene inventory increased, and the inventories of different sectors all increased. The finished product inventory of large plastic - weaving enterprises decreased, and the BOPP raw material inventory decreased [78][81]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 6, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 4885 hands, a decrease of 149 hands from last week [85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pig Market**: In the short - term, the pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, with prices likely to decline but limited by factors like secondary fattening and low frozen product inventory. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large, and the forward price rebound is under pressure. The futures market is expected to be in a low - level shock in the short - term [1]. - **Egg Market**: Short - term egg prices lack support due to weak post - festival demand. In the third quarter, supply and demand both increase, and price rebound is under pressure. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may ease [2]. - **Oil Market**: The current oil market shows differentiation. Palm oil is relatively strong, but the overall inventory accumulation trend in Malaysia restricts its rise. Soybean oil has supply pressure and uncertainty about biodiesel policies. Rapeseed oil has price support from the relationship between China and Canada, but there is short - term supply pressure [5][6][7]. - **Soybean Meal Market**: In the short - term, the soybean meal market is expected to be in a wide - range shock. In the long - term, due to factors such as increased import costs and tightened supply and demand, the price is expected to rise steadily [8][9]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the corn price has support, and the futures price is expected to be in a high - level shock. In the long - term, the supply and demand are marginally tightened, but the price increase space is limited by substitutes [9]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On June 6, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous day, while the price in Guangdong remained stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In June, the supply pressure is large, and the seasonal demand is weak. In the long - term, the supply from June to September 2024 is increasing, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is in a low - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to short at the rebound pressure level [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On June 6, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing decreased compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. In the medium - term, the supply in July - August 2025 is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 08 and 09 contracts, it is recommended to hedge when the price rebounds. For the 10 contract, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Oil - **Palm Oil**: On June 5, the Malaysian palm oil futures price decreased. The export in May improved, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. In the long - term, the inventory accumulation trend remains. The 08 contract is in a shock stage after the rebound [3][5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The EPA is about to announce the US biofuel blending plan. The US soybean fundamentals are mixed. The domestic soybean to - port volume is large, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strong [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, and the price has support from the relationship between China and Canada [7]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a range shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil - meal ratio short - selling strategy [8]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Price**: On June 5, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 2790 yuan/ton, and the basis was 09 - 170 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the US soybean is expected to be in a shock. The domestic soybean supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise steadily [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is recommended to operate in the range of [2930, 3000] in the short - term and go long after the callback in mid - June [9]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On June 5, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port remained stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao decreased by 6 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, the supply and demand are marginally tightened, but the price increase space is limited by substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend is expected to be stable and upward. The 07 contract is in a high - level shock, and it is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview | Product | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (US cents/bushel) | 1,050.50 | 1,044.75 | 5.75 | | Soybean Meal Main (Yuan/ton) | 2,958 | 2,939 | 19.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/ton) | 2,900 | 2,900 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (US cents/bushel) | 438.25 | 438.00 | 0.25 | | Corn Main (Yuan/ton) | 2,335 | 2,333 | 2.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/ton) | 2,330 | 2,330 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (US cents/pound) | 46.62 | 46.72 | - 0.10 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/ton) | 7,980 | 8,000 | - 20.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/ton) | 3,904 | 3,950 | - 46.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/ton) | 8,530 | 8,600 | - 70.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian dollars/ton) | 695.10 | 699.80 | - 4.70 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/ton) | 9,160 | 9,160 | 0.00 | | Egg Main (Yuan/500 kg) | 2,878 | 2,877 | 1.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/jin) | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0.00 | | Pig Futures Main (Yuan/ton) | 13,485 | 13,490 | - 5.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/kg) | 14.21 | 14.21 | 0.00 | [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern due to limited upside and downside space, influenced by factors such as tariff concerns, supply disruptions, and inventory levels [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors like tariff hikes, the decline of photovoltaic installations, and the arrival of the off - season [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to have limited downside due to cost support but are likely to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [4]. - Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and range trading is recommended, with attention on supply resumption and downstream demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Copper**: As of June 5, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract closed at 78,170 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. Tariff issues add negative sentiment. The upstream copper concentrate market is quiet, and the TC price is stable. The Kankola mine earthquake may impact supply. Downstream demand is average, and post - holiday copper price upside is limited, but so is the downside [1]. - **Aluminum**: As of June 5, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract closed at 20,010 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The Guinea AXIS mine is restricted, and its impact on imports will be seen in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is also rising. Demand is weakening, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [2][3]. - **Nickel**: As of June 5, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract closed at 121,570 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The Indonesian nickel ore market is tight, but downstream demand is weak, and the overall situation is one of supply surplus, with prices expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Tin**: As of June 5, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract closed at 258,900 yuan/ton, up 1.47%. The price rebounded due to slower - than - expected resumption in Myanmar. Supply is improving but limited, and prices are expected to be volatile [5]. Spot Transaction Summary - **Copper**: Domestic spot copper prices fell, and the market was quiet with low demand and limited future demand growth [6]. - **Aluminum**: Spot aluminum prices fell, and the market was bearish. Sellers accelerated sales, and demand was mainly for basic needs, resulting in light trading [7]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices were stable, and the market was moderately active, with limited demand growth [8]. - **Zinc**: Spot zinc prices fell, and the market was quiet, with high premiums supporting sellers [9][10]. - **Lead**: Spot lead prices rose, and demand was mainly for rigid needs, with high discounts for sellers [10][11]. - **Nickel**: Spot nickel prices fell, and downstream buyers were cautious, leading to low trading activity [12][13]. - **Tin**: Spot tin prices rose, and downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices [14]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - **SHFE**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while zinc futures warehouse receipts increased, and lead futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. - **LME**: Copper, tin, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, while lead and zinc inventories increased [16].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 06 月 06 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆国债： | 震荡 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 暂时观望 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | ...