| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 卖出看涨 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 多头减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头离场观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 低位震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹承压 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 上涨受限 | | ◆玉米： | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index futures (medium to long - term) [1][4] - **Bearish**: Glass (sell call options),红枣 (oscillate weakly),生猪 (rebound under pressure),鸡蛋 (rise limited),玉米 (weakly oscillate),油脂 (rebound limited) [1][7][36][38][40][42][45] - **Neutral**: Treasury bonds,焦煤,螺纹钢,铜,铝,镍,锡,黄金,白银,PVC,烧碱,苯乙烯,橡胶,尿素,甲醇,聚烯烃,棉花 and棉纱,PTA,苹果 [1][4][6][9][10][15][16][17][18][26][34] Core Views - The market shows diversified trends across different sectors. In the macro - financial area, index futures are expected to rise in the long - run but may oscillate in the short - term, while treasury bonds will likely move in a range. In the black building materials sector, products like coking coal and rebar are in a state of oscillation. The non - ferrous metals market is generally neutral with different metals having their own influencing factors. The energy and chemical industry is mostly in a state of oscillation or weak oscillation. The cotton - spinning and agricultural livestock sectors also present various trends based on supply - demand and seasonal factors [1][4][6][9][18][34][38] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Index Futures**: Medium to long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips. The market is currently oscillating with rapid rotation of hotspots and an unclear main line. The general public budget revenue and expenditure data have certain impacts on the market [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate. The third - quarter monetary policy report indicates a limited possibility of using total - volume monetary policy tools this year, and the market is in a wait - and - see and oscillating pattern [4][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Suggested for range trading. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory [6] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. The price is at a low level with low static valuation, and the short - term steel price will mainly oscillate at a low level due to factors such as weakening demand and potential steel mill production cuts [6][7] - **Glass**: Recommended to sell call options. The market is weak with high inventory and weakening demand, and the technical indicators show a bearish trend [7] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The market is influenced by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and copper supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to observe or conduct light - position range trading [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The market is neutral and oscillating at a high level. The price is affected by factors such as bauxite prices, alumina production capacity, and downstream demand. It is recommended to strengthen observation [9][10][11] - **Nickel**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty to the supply, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to oscillate. The prices are affected by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16][17] Energy and Chemical - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies [18][19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is influenced by factors such as alumina production and inventory, and chlorine price [20][21] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, pure benzene supply, and macro - data [21][22][23] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is related to tire production. It is recommended to observe the 15000 support level [23][24][25] - **Urea**: Expected to oscillate. The market is affected by factors such as supply, cost, and demand [26][27] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, demand, and coal prices [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended for 01 - contract short - position holders to exit and observe. The supply is expected to shrink, and the cost support is strong [30][31][33] Cotton - spinning - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, and the downstream consumption is weak [34] - **PTA**: Expected to oscillate at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and inventory [34][35] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The production and quality of apples have declined, and the price is expected to remain strong [35] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and the price is slightly loosening [36] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The price is under pressure. The short - term price is in a narrow - range consolidation, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and production capacity reduction [38][39] - **Eggs**: The price increase is limited. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure needs time to ease [40][41] - **Corn**: Expected to build a bottom through oscillation. The short - term price is supported by the slowdown of new - grain listing, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and cost [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic and international soybean markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand, and price differentials [44][45] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. The short - term price is in a low - level oscillation, and the long - term price is affected by factors such as policies and weather [45][47][49][50][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; Soda ash 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [1][20][22][25][31]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][34][35]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; Eggs' price increases are limited; Corn is in the process of bottom - building; Soybean meal is for range trading; Oils' price rebounds are limited [1][38][40][42]. Core Views - A - share market has hot - spot rotation, and the main line is unclear. Index futures may trade sideways. For Treasury bonds, the possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is relatively limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern [5]. - In the black building materials market, the coal market is weak, and steel prices may trade at low levels. Glass demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro and fundamental factors. Copper is in high - level oscillation, aluminum is in high - level trading with uncertainty, nickel has an oversupply situation in the medium - long term, and tin and precious metals are in range trading [11][12][17][18]. - Energy chemicals generally face supply - demand imbalances, with most products expected to trade sideways or weakly. Soda ash may have limited downside space [20][22][25][33]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn are under pressure due to loose supply - demand, PTA is in low - level oscillation, apples may be strong due to reduced production and quality, and jujubes' prices are weakening [34][35][37]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, pigs' supply is large in the short - to - medium term, egg supply is sufficient, corn is in the bottom - building process, soybean meal is in range trading, and oils' price rebounds are limited [38][40][42][46][53]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market has个股涨跌互现, with hot - spot rotation. 1 - 10 national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. Index futures may trade sideways in the short term and are long - term bullish [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a prudent and loose tone. The possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend, with weak demand and widespread price cuts. Market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - **Rebar**: Futures prices are below cost, with low static valuation. Macro利好 has been realized, and demand may decline. Steel mills may increase production cuts. Short - term steel prices are expected to trade at low levels, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 3000 - 3100 [7][8]. - **Glass**: The main contract's open interest hits a new high. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 01 contract and sell call options [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in high - level oscillation, affected by US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data in China. Fundamentally, raw material supply is tight, and consumption is average. Long - term demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. The main contract may trade in the range of 85000 - 88000 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Bauxite prices are stable, and alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. Aluminum production capacity is basically stable, and demand is affected by the off - season. Inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. Nickel supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term, with an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and inventory is at a medium level. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US government policies and Fed policy expectations, prices are in range trading. There is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Cost is under pressure, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports may slow down. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4700 pressure level [20][21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the price is under pressure. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2400 pressure level [22][23]. - **Styrene**: Cost and supply - demand factors lead to a weak outlook. It is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 pressure level [23][25]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 15000 support level [25][26]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is diversified, and inventory is high. It is expected to trade in a wide range [27][28]. - **Methanol**: Supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected to trade weakly. Key factors to watch include macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and costs are under pressure. PE is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 6800 support level; PP is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 support level [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is stable. The 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand is loose, and downstream consumption is weak. Prices are under pressure [34]. - **PTA**: Oil prices are weak, supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are in low - level oscillation, focusing on the 4400 - 4700 range [34][35]. - **Apples**: Production and quality have decreased, and prices may remain strong [35]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition prices are falling, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to decline [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Short - term prices are in a narrow range, and medium - long - term supply is large. It is recommended to hold short positions in 01, 03, and 05 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [38][39][40]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. The 12 - contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range [40][41]. - **Corn**: Short - term prices are supported by reduced supply, and medium - long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The 01 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 spread arbitrage [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic supply may improve in December. The M2601 contract is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [46][47]. - **Oils**: Short - term price rebounds are limited, and it is recommended not to chase the rise but to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread and palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [47][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade in a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6,800, while the PP main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, with support at 6,500. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - Plastics still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in a range [9]. - PP faces considerable upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [50]. Summary by Directory Plastic Weekly Market Review - On November 14, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,853 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%. The average price of LDPE was 9,116.67 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08%; the average price of HDPE was 7,532.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23%; the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,292.35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59%. The LLDPE South China basis was 439.35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.71%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 62 yuan/ton (+17) [8][11]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: On November 14, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 62 yuan/ton (+17), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (+5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 103 yuan/ton (- 22) [17]. - **Spot Price**: Detailed spot prices of different regions and varieties of HDPE, LDPE, and LLDPE are provided, along with their price changes [18][19]. - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.81 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/barrel from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at 64.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.54 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (+0) [21]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 404 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 236 yuan/ton from the previous week [26]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 67.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.97%. The maintenance loss this week was 8.89 tons, a decrease of 0.40 tons from the previous week [30]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have put into production or are planned to put into production PE devices in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 [33]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' PE devices are in maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [34]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 49.96%, unchanged from the previous week; the operating rate of PE packaging film was 50.41%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from the previous weekend, and the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.67%, unchanged from the previous weekend [36]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 34%, with a difference of 1.3% from the annual average level. The data of low - pressure pipes differ significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 13.5%, with a difference of 3.2% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 50.01 tons, a decrease of 0.95 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.86% [43]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,067 lots, a decrease of 602 lots from the previous week [47]. PP Weekly Market Review - On November 14, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,474 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week increase of 0.15% [51]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices and price changes of various PP - related products and other plastics are provided [53][55]. - **Basis**: On November 14, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6,486.67 yuan/ton (- 220). The PP basis was 13 yuan/ton (- 230), and the basis narrowed. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 101 yuan/ton (+9), and the month - spread widened [57]. - **Month - spread**: On November 14, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 101 yuan/ton (+9), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 38 yuan/ton (+3), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 139 yuan/ton (- 12) [63]. - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.81 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/barrel from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at 64.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.54 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (+0) [68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 585.28 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, and the profit of coal - based PP was - 531.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126.73 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 79.63%, an increase of 1.85 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 82.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.22%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 7.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.37% [78]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' PP production lines are in maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [81]. - **Demand**: This week, the average operating rate of downstream industries was 53%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points. The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.24% (- 0.22%), the operating rate of BOPP was 62.60% (+0.15%), the operating rate of injection molding was 59.21% (+0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 37.67% (+0.37%) [83]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 282.27 US dollars/ton, an increase of 65.42 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was - 21.39 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6.07 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week [89]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 62.00 tons (+3.35%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 7.26% week - on - week; the inventory of traders decreased by 4.94% week - on - week; the port inventory increased by 3.56% week - on - week [92]. - **Inventory of Downstream Enterprises**: This week, the finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 1,001.19 tons, a decrease of 4.68% week - on - week, and the raw material inventory of BOPP was 9.60 days, an increase of 3.11% week - on - week [100]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,642 lots, an increase of 13 lots from the previous week [105].

01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 上周行情回顾 铜周报：宏观仍不明朗，铜价高位震荡 2025-11-17 p 上周沪铜高位震荡。截至上周五收至86900元/吨，周涨幅1.11%。美国政府停摆结束提振市场信心，但美联储官员在利率问题上存 在明显分歧，使得市场情绪偏向谨慎。基本面上，铜精矿TC仍处于历史负值低位，铜矿紧缺下铜价中枢中长期有支撑。国内铜冶炼反 内卷预期叠加阳极铜供给影响，国内电解铜产量或保持低位。铜价下跌终端需求受到提振，基本面支撑较强，铜价或延续高位震荡运 行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 25-11-14 25-11-10 25-11-04 25-10-29 25-10-23 25-10-17 25-10-13 25-09-29 25-09-23 25-09-17 25-09-11 25-09-05 25-09-01 25-08-26 25-08-20 25-08-14 25-08-08 25-08-04 25-07-29 25-07-23 2 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Weekly Precious Metals Report by Changjiang Futures, dated November 17, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The end of the US government shutdown and the mitigation of liquidity shocks, along with hawkish statements from multiple Fed officials, have led to a strong - oscillating trend in precious metal prices. The market is divided on whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end - point of this round of rate cuts has been lowered. Amid concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported in the medium - term but are currently in a short - term adjustment phase [6][9][11] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review - US government shutdown ended and liquidity shock eased. Fed officials made hawkish statements. The price of US gold was in a strong - oscillating state, closing at $4084 per ounce last Friday, up 1.9% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4150, and the lower support level is $3980. The price of US silver also showed a strong - oscillating trend, with a weekly increase of 4.5%, closing at $50.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $49, and the upper resistance level is $51.5 [6][9] 4.2 Weekly Viewpoint - The end of the US government shutdown and hawkish Fed statements have reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut. The market is divided on the December rate cut, and the expected end - point of rate cuts has been lowered. With a slowdown in the US employment situation and concerns about the US economy and Fed independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported in the medium - term but are in short - term adjustment. Strategy advice is to trade cautiously within a range, with the reference operating range for SHFE gold contract 12 being 910 - 970 and for SHFE silver contract 12 being 11500 - 12400 [11][13] 4.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends of various overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate, inflation expectation, US Treasury yield spread, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures price [15][17][21] 4.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the eurozone in November was 25, compared with the previous value of 22.7 [28] 4.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The US House of Representatives passed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. There are internal disagreements within the Fed on interest rate cuts, and it is uncertain whether there will be a rate cut in December [29] 4.6 Inventory - This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10,789.81 kg to 1,162,728.30 kg, while SHFE gold inventory increased by 810 kg to 90,426 kg. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 138,277.37 kg to 14,795,008.84 kg, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 46,158 kg to 576,894 kg [13][33] 4.7 Fund Holdings - This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13][38] 4.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday, November 20th, at 21:30, important economic indicators to watch include the seasonally - adjusted change in US non - farm payrolls for September and the US unemployment rate for September [40]

Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Date: November 17, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply and demand of carbonate lithium maintain a tight balance. The downstream demand is strong, and it is expected that the subsequent imports of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. The price is expected to continue a strong and volatile trend, and it is recommended to build positions at low prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of the mining certificates of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply Side - Last week, the production of carbonate lithium increased by 385 tons week-on-week to 23,850 tons, and the production in October increased by 10% month-on-month to 105,040 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited, with most mainstream Australian mines reducing their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% to 109,000 tons, from Nigeria increased by 14.4% to 120,000 tons, and from South Africa increased by 109,000 tons. In September, the import of carbonate lithium was 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease, with 11,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 55% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium with purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand Side - The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large battery cell manufacturers in September increased by 8% month - on - month. In October, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 170.6 GWh, a 12.9% month - on - month increase and a 50.5% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 28.2 GWh, a 5.5% month - on - month increase and a 33.5% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 166.0 GWh, a 13.3% month - on - month increase and a 50.8% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are also expected to continue to support the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market sales in China [6]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium showed a destocking state, with the factory inventory of carbonate lithium decreasing by 160 tons and the futures inventory decreasing by 162 tons [6]. Strategy Suggestion - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down. In October, the domestic production of carbonate lithium increased by 10% month - on - month. In September, the import of lithium concentrate was 711,000 tons, a 14.7% month - on - month increase, and the total import of carbonate lithium in September was about 19,597 tons, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase. The downstream demand is strong, and the domestic supply and demand maintain a tight balance. It is expected that the subsequent imports of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. The production schedule of cathode materials in October is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month, and the production schedule in September increased by 8% month - on - month. The risk of mining certificates in Yichun, Jiangxi persists. With the profit recovery, the production of lithium from ore continues to increase, and the cost center moves up. At present, there is still no conclusion on the submission and review of the reserve verification reports of Yichun mining enterprises. The downstream production schedule exceeds expectations, and attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end. During the peak season, downstream enterprises actively purchase carbonate lithium, and the destocking trend continues. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and continue to pay attention to the progress of the mining certificates of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and factory monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, average prices of carbonate lithium and lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of different raw - material - based carbonate lithium, differences between domestic power battery production and loading volume, production of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, average production cost of carbonate lithium, import volume of carbonate lithium and lithium spodumene, and market prices of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [8][11][13][18][20][23][24][26][30][32][36][38][40][42]. - In October 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 19.56% from salt lakes, 23.55% from lithium mica, and 44.87% from lithium spodumene [24][25].

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Meal and Oil Weekly Report - Date: November 17, 2025 - Researcher: Ye Tian [1] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - For soybean meal, the loss of crushing profit supports its strong operation. The US soybean supply - demand tightens, and domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate widely with the US soybean, but its price is expected to be slightly stronger due to profit losses and the de - stocking cycle [6][7]. - For oils, the reports (USDA11 and MPOB10) have a neutral - bearish impact, and the upward rebound of futures prices is limited. In the long - term, the market should focus on potential positive factors such as biodiesel policies and weather conditions [81][82]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal a. Period and Spot Market - As of November 14, the East China spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton weekly; the M2601 contract closed at 3092 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton weekly; the basis was 01 - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Before the release of the US soybean supply - demand report, the US soybean price rose sharply but then fell back due to lower - than - expected yield cuts. Domestic soybean meal followed the cost increase, but the spot supply pressure continued, and the basis weakened [7][9]. b. Supply - The USDA November report showed that the US soybean price dropped to 53 cents/bushel, with the yield higher than expected and the ending stocks reduced to 290 million bushels. As of November 8, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 58.4%. In China, the November soybean arrival is normal, but the 12 - January purchases are slow due to profit losses, with a strong de - stocking expectation [7]. c. Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, with high livestock and poultry inventories, supporting a feed demand increase of over 7%. The soybean meal addition ratio increased, and the fourth - quarter demand is expected to increase by over 5%, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory increased to 761.95 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory decreased to 99.86 million tons [7]. d. Cost - The 25/26 US soybean planting cost dropped to 1150 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 100 cents/bushel. Based on certain calculations, the domestic soybean meal cost is 3070 yuan/ton [7]. e. Market Summary and Strategy - The US soybean is expected to fluctuate widely, and domestic soybean meal is expected to be slightly stronger. The strategy suggests range - bound operations for the M2601 contract and for spot enterprises to sell the basis on rallies and roll long positions [7]. 2. Oils a. Period and Spot Market - As of the week of November 14, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices showed different trends. Palm oil was the weakest due to the MPOB report and poor export data, while rapeseed oil was the strongest due to supply concerns [82][83]. b. Palm Oil - The MPOB October report showed an increase in both production and demand, with the ending stocks rising to 2.46 million tons. The SPPOMA data indicated a 2.16% decline in production from November 1 - 10. However, exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5 - 12.3%. In China, the 10 - November palm oil purchases are similar to 2024, and the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [82]. c. Soybean Oil - The USDA November report had a neutral - bearish impact, with a reduction in both inventory and export. The US soybean futures are expected to be under pressure, and the domestic soybean oil inventory decreased slightly. In the long - term, the soybean supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, limiting the de - stocking speed [82]. d. Rapeseed Oil - Due to concerns about the continued tight supply of rapeseed before the arrival of Australian rapeseed in late November and the Canadian biodiesel policy, the domestic rapeseed oil is in a slow de - stocking process. However, considering the potential improvement in China - Canada relations, the upward space for rapeseed oil is limited [82]. e. Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, the upward rebound of domestic oils is limited. The strategy suggests not chasing the rise and taking a long - on - dips approach for the 01 contracts. For arbitrage, pay attention to the long - 1 - short - 5 spread for rapeseed oil and the short - 1 - long - 5 spread for palm oil [82].

长江期货饲料产业周报 2025-11-17 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 目 录 01 生猪：下行筑底周期，期价反弹承压 ◆ 期现端：截至11月14日，全国现货价格11.62元/公斤，较上周跌0.20元/公斤；河南猪价11.93元/公斤，较上周跌0.11元/公斤；生猪2501收至11775元/吨，较上周跌90元/吨；01合 约基差155元/吨，较上周跌20元/吨。周度生猪价格先扬后抑，重心下移，周初养殖端惜售情绪增强，屠宰需求增加，现货有所反弹，随着价格涨高后集团出栏情绪提升，而需求跟 进有限，价格高位回落；期货主力01低位震荡，小幅贴水，基差小跌；周末现货偏弱调整。 ◆ 供应端：官方2025年9月能繁母猪存栏量处于均衡区间上限，10月咨询机构样本能繁母猪存栏一增一降，显示产能去化仍偏慢，整体母猪产能充裕，叠加生产性能提升，在疫情相 对平稳情况下，往后推10个月对应明年上半年之前生猪出栏压力仍大；根据仔猪和中大 ...

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Black: Raw Materials Alternately Decline, Steel Relatively Resilient [1] - **Report Date**: November 17, 2025 [1] - **Reporting Company**: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The raw materials decline alternately while steel shows relative resilience [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Black Sector Performance - Last week, the black sector showed a divergent trend. Steel and iron ore prices remained stable, while coking coal and coke prices dropped significantly. The strength relationship among varieties was iron ore > rebar > hot-rolled coil > coke > coking coal [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Comparison - The futures market showed a differentiated trend, with non-ferrous metals performing strongly [6]. 3.3 Spot Prices - Rebar and iron ore prices increased, while scrap steel prices decreased slightly [8]. 3.4 Profit and Valuation - The profitability of steel mills declined, and the valuation of rebar futures was relatively low [10]. 3.5 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel production and demand decreased, and inventory was slowly depleted [12]. 3.6 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals at ports were high, leading to continuous increases in port inventory. Although pig iron production rebounded last week, it is expected to decline again in the future, and the supply-demand pattern of iron ore will gradually become looser [3][21]. 3.7 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production increased slightly last week, and inventory accumulated. The profitability of coking plants was poor, and coke production dropped to a low level, with coke inventory being depleted again [3]. 3.8 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production continued to decline, and inventory was depleted again [26]. 3.9 Variety Spreads - The mill's paper profit rebounded from the bottom, and the rebar-coke price ratio widened [28]. 3.10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Multiple cities in Hebei lifted the emergency response for heavy pollution weather. China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves changed in October. The vice premier will visit Guinea and Sierra Leone and attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project. The US suspended the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry for one year. Xinjiang steel mills' winter maintenance and production cuts are progressing, with an estimated reduction of about 2 million tons of construction steel output, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total output in 2025. Mysteel predicts that the total output of the Simandou project in 2026 will reach 20 million tons. Most provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions have suspended automobile replacement subsidies or scrapping and renewal subsidies. The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [33].