Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Index Futures - On Wednesday morning, the A-share market fluctuated and declined, but rebounded in the afternoon driven by the artificial intelligence sector. Ignoring the overnight decline of US stocks and Asia-Pacific stock indices, index futures soared in a short-squeeze situation, contrasting with the limit-down of lithium carbonate. The loose capital situation is the main reason. Under the central bank's loose policy, funds flow into the stock and futures markets in search of returns. With the improvement of residents' wealth management awareness and the decline of the attractiveness of real estate, some funds have turned to the financial sector, enriching the stock market capital pool. The general bullish sentiment in the market forms a positive feedback - investors' buying drives up prices, and rising prices attract more funds, amplifying the gains. This change in sentiment and confidence has become an important psychological basis for the short-squeeze market of index futures IM and IC [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Taking the previous high as a reference, if the subsequent adjustment of yields cannot break through the previous high (for example, the previous high of 2.06% for the active 30-year treasury bond 2500002), then the most severe impact of the strong performance of the equity market on the bond market may have passed. At the same time, the bond market has also witnessed marginal positive factors such as the return of loose capital after the tax period and the relief of the fund redemption pressure after the previous release. This environment is conducive to the stabilization of bond market sentiment and also helps the bond market and the equity market to trade according to their own logics in the subsequent process [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Index Futures - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.16%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 1.08%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.4%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 1.23%. The 10-year main contract fell 0.19%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.1%, the 30-year main contract fell 0.5%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.01% [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The RSI indicator shows that the market is approaching a short-term high [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Review**: The 10-year, 5-year, 30-year, and 2-year main contracts are involved [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T contract may rebound [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [2] Futures Data - On August 20, 2025, the closing price of CSI 300 continuous contract was 4270.00 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.16%, a trading volume of 90,137 lots, and an open interest of 159,194 lots. The closing price of SSE 50 continuous contract was 2851.20 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.08%, a trading volume of 45,450 lots, and an open interest of 72,434 lots. The closing price of CSI 500 continuous contract was 6695.20 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.40%, a trading volume of 77,339 lots, and an open interest of 127,360 lots. The closing price of CSI 1000 continuous contract was 7276.00 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.23%, a trading volume of 196,109 lots, and an open interest of 217,300 lots. The closing price of 10-year treasury bond continuous contract was 107.84 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.19%, a trading volume of 78,281 lots, and an open interest of 69,826 lots. The closing price of 5-year treasury bond continuous contract was 105.42 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.10%, a trading volume of 52,899 lots, and an open interest of 63,108 lots. The closing price of 30-year treasury bond continuous contract was 115.88 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.50%, a trading volume of 96,513 lots, and an open interest of 48,883 lots. The closing price of 2-year treasury bond continuous contract was 102.32 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.01%, a trading volume of 47,983 lots, and an open interest of 42,716 lots [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Stocks - Buy on dips; Bonds - Hold and observe [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - Range trading; Glass - Bearish on 09 contract; Coking Coal and Coke - Sideways movement [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - Range trading or observe; Aluminum - Buy on dips after pullback; Nickel - Observe or short on rallies; Tin - Range trading; Gold - Range trading; Silver - Range trading [1][11][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - Sideways; Soda Ash - Hold short positions on 09 contract; Caustic Soda - Sideways; Styrene - Sideways; Rubber - Sideways; Urea - Sideways movement; Methanol - Sideways movement; Polyolefins - Wide - range sideways [1][20][21] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and Cotton Yarn - Bullish sideways; Apple - Sideways movement; Jujube - Sideways movement [1][34][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pig - Bearish on rallies; Egg - Bearish on rallies; Corn - Wide - range sideways; Soybean Meal - Range sideways; Oils - Bullish sideways [1][37][38] Core Views - The stock index futures market is driven by loose funds and positive market sentiment, showing a bullish trend. The bond market has potential risks from equity market rebounds and redemption pressure, so it's advisable to wait and see. In the commodity market, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - environment [6]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: It is in a sideways movement, and investors are advised to buy on dips. The A - share market was driven by the AI sector on Wednesday afternoon, and the stock index futures showed a bullish trend. Loose funds and positive market sentiment are the main driving factors [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Hold and observe. Although the negative factors in the bond market eased on Tuesday, there are still potential risks from equity market rebounds and redemption pressure [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: It is in a sideways movement, and range trading is recommended. On Wednesday, the rebar futures price rebounded after hitting support. The external risk has been postponed, but the expansion of US steel tariffs may affect indirect exports. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to remain sideways in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: The 09 contract is bearish. The glass futures continued to be weak on August 20th. The inventory is rising, and the sales recovery is less than expected. The 09 contract is expected to have a downward trend due to inventory pressure [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to be in a high - level sideways movement. The macro - environment is generally positive, but the short - term upward driving force is insufficient due to increased supply and weak downstream consumption. However, low inventory and the expectation of demand improvement in the peak season will support the price [11]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a high - level sideways movement. The price of bauxite is supported by the rainy season in Guinea and the uncertainty of mine复产. The demand is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season. Although there are short - term negative events, it is recommended to buy on dips [12]. - **Nickel**: It is in a sideways movement. The supply of the nickel industry is in surplus in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16]. - **Tin**: It is in a sideways movement. The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, but the downstream consumption is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][17]. - **Silver and Gold**: They are in a sideways movement. The precious metal prices have corrected due to changes in market expectations, but there is support at the bottom. It is recommended to buy on dips [17][18][19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be in a weak sideways movement. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may weaken, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [20][21]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a strong sideways movement. The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but with a slow - down in growth. The 01 contract is expected to be supported at 2550 [22][23]. - **Styrene**: It is in a sideways movement. The cost and demand factors are mixed, and the macro - environment is slightly positive. The price is expected to be in the range of 7100 - 7400 [23][24][25]. - **Rubber**: It is in a sideways movement. The cost support is weakening, but the futures market has a certain boost to the spot market. It is expected to have a small - scale rebound, and the reference range is 15200 - 15600 [25][26]. - **Urea**: It is in a neutral state. The market sentiment has cooled down, the supply has increased, and the demand is scattered. The 01 contract has resistance at 1820 - 1850 and support at 1730 - 1750 [28]. - **Methanol**: It is in a neutral state. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand of methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is increasing, and the price is in a sideways movement [29]. - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be in a weak sideways movement. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is in the transition period. The cost is uncertain. The L2509 contract is expected to be in the range of 7200 - 7500, and the PP2509 contract is expected to be in the range of 6900 - 7200 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: Hold short positions on the 09 contract. The spot market is weak, and the 09 contract still faces large delivery pressure. The supply is abundant, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - term [31][33]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to be in a bullish sideways movement. The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, the macro - environment is favorable, and the peak season is approaching. The cotton price is expected to be strong [34]. - **Apple**: It is in a sideways movement. The early - maturing apples are on the market, and the inventory apples' market is stable. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways movement based on low inventory and growth factors [35]. - **Jujube**: It is in a sideways movement. The jujube is in the swelling period, and the market price is expected to rise slightly in the short - term [35]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pig**: The market is under pressure. The short - term spot price is expected to rebound but is limited by supply pressure. The 05 contract is relatively strong due to the policy expectation of capacity reduction. It is recommended to take a rolling operation strategy and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread trading [37][38]. - **Egg**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The short - term supply is sufficient, which restricts the price increase. The key factor is the elimination of laying hens. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 10 contract and wait and see for the 12 and 01 contracts [39]. - **Corn**: It is in a range - bound movement. The new - crop corn is expected to face selling pressure due to suitable weather and lower cost. It is recommended to short on rebounds or conduct 11 - 1 spread trading [40][41]. - **Soybean Meal**: The upward space is limited. The short - term supply is sufficient, but the price is expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to hold long positions in a rolling manner and reduce positions on rallies slightly [42][43][44]. - **Oils**: The downward adjustment is limited. The short - term prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to have support at certain levels. It is recommended to buy on dips and take profit on existing long positions gradually. The 11 - 01 spread trading of rapeseed oil should be exited gradually [44][51].

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - bullish on dips; Treasury bonds - hold off [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - range trading; Glass - weakening in a range; Coking coal and coke - range - bound [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or hold off; Aluminum - buy on dips after pullbacks; Nickel - hold off or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - weakening in a range; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - range - bound; Styrene - range - bound; Rubber - strengthening in a range; Urea - range - bound; Methanol - range - bound; Polyolefins - wide - range weakening [1][19][20] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - strengthening in a range; Apples - strengthening in a range; Red dates - strengthening in a range [1][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - range - bound; Soybean meal - range - bound; Oils - strengthening in a range [1][37][38] Core Views - Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international events. Different futures varieties present different trends and investment opportunities due to their own characteristics and external impacts [6][9][12] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: With the T + 0 function, maintain positions, lock in positions when there is a downward trend, and earn profits during the heat - up period. Consider the impacts of international events like China - India and US - Russia - Ukraine meetings [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond allocation value is emerging and market sentiment is recovering, it is not recommended to enter the market aggressively due to potential disturbances from the equity market and possible chain - reactions from yield adjustments [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Futures prices continue to decline. Considering factors like external trade policies, production, and inventory, it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Focus on the [3100 - 3300] range for RB2510 [9] - **Glass**: Futures are in a weakening trend. With inventory pressure and potential policy impacts, the 09 contract is considered weak, and attention should be paid to the 930 - 950 support level [8][9][10] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is in a game between tight supply and weakening demand, and is expected to be range - bound. Coke is supported by low inventory, high demand, and supply disturbances, and is also expected to be range - bound [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macro - data and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to be range - bound with a slightly upward trend. The short - term operating range for Shanghai copper is 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Despite short - term negative events, considering the transition from the off - season to the peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [13][14] - **Nickel**: In the medium - to long - term, the supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: With improving supply and weakening demand in the off - season, it is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range for the SH09 contract being 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data and geopolitical events, they are expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to buy on dips [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and weak demand, it is expected to be in a weakening range. The 01 contract is temporarily focused on the 4900 - 5000 range [19][20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: With sufficient supply and rigid demand with a slow - down in growth, the 01 contract is expected to be range - bound in the 2550 - 2650 range [21][22] - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental positives and a warm macro - environment, the price is expected to be range - bound in the 7100 - 7400 range [23][24] - **Rubber**: With cost support and inventory reduction, it is expected to be in a strengthening range within the 15200 - 15600 range [25][27] - **Urea**: Affected by supply, demand, and export factors, the 01 contract is under pressure at 1820 - 1850 [28] - **Methanol**: With a slight decline in supply, stable demand from methanol - to - olefins, and weak traditional demand, the price is expected to be in a weakening range [30] - **Polyolefins**: With cost uncertainties and a slow recovery in downstream demand, the L2509 contract is focused on the 7200 - 7500 range, and the PP2509 contract is focused on the 6900 - 7200 range [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: Due to supply increases and potential inventory accumulation, it is recommended to hold short positions on the 09 contract [33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With improved global supply - demand, a better macro - environment, and expectations of the peak season, the price is expected to strengthen in a range [35] - **Apples**: Based on low inventory and growth impacts, the price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [36] - **Red Dates**: With the current growth situation and market conditions, the price is expected to strengthen in a range [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: With supply pressure and different expectations for different contracts, it is recommended to lock in profits on short positions at low levels, add short positions at pressure levels, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: With sufficient short - term supply and uncertain long - term supply, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 10 contract and consider long positions on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the elimination process accelerates [38][39][40] - **Corn**: With sufficient supply and suitable growing conditions, the 11 contract is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to short on rallies or hold the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [40] - **Soybean Meal**: With a tightening supply - demand situation for US soybeans and different supply - demand patterns in different periods in China, it is recommended to hold long positions on a rolling basis and reduce positions on rallies [42] - **Oils**: With short - term high - level callback risks and long - term positive factors, it is recommended to buy on dips, take profits on existing long positions, and pay attention to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage [43][44][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the increase in domestic palm oil and rapeseed oil purchases and the call to postpone B50 limit the upside space for oils. However, in the long term, the supply - demand of the three major oils is expected to tighten, laying the foundation for the rise of oil prices. The price performance in the fourth quarter is expected to be stronger than that in the third quarter [2][60]. - For trading strategies, in the short term, the support levels for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are 8400 - 8500, 9300 - 9400, and 9700 respectively. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and chasing highs should be done with caution. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of rapeseed oil 11 - 01 [3][61]. Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Short - term Outlook**: Although palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing period, with the August inventory rising to 2.13 million tons but lower than market expectations, and the high - frequency data showing a decrease in production and an increase in exports in August, palm oil is expected to strengthen again after a small correction [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: The MPOB July report shows that Malaysia's palm oil has strong supply and demand, but high domestic consumption leads to a lower - than - expected inventory increase. In August, export data improved, with a 16.5 - 21.3% increase in exports from August 1 - 15 compared to the previous month, and production growth slowed down, which is beneficial for price increases. However, seasonal inventory accumulation from September to October may disrupt prices [6]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The GAPKI May report shows a decrease in production and an increase in exports, with the inventory decreasing to 2.916 million tons. From June to July, production continued to decline, possibly due to the crackdown on illegal plantations. Domestic consumption and export demand are expected to remain strong, and the supply - demand is expected to maintain a long - term tight balance, driving up international palm oil prices. The main uncertainties come from lagging data and the risk of B50 postponement [8]. - **Domestic Palm Oil**: In the short term, the supply is relatively abundant, with the inventory reaching 617,300 tons as of August 15. Recently, the import profit has improved, and traders are increasing purchases from August to November. In the long term, although the supply pressure from the origin is not large, the price may be affected by Malaysian seasonal inventory accumulation, Indian procurement demand fluctuations, and Indonesian biodiesel policies [13][17]. Soybean Oil - **Short - term Outlook**: The USDA August report was unexpectedly bullish, and the high - level of domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories, along with concerns about future soybean supply, lead to a short - term strong - side oscillation for soybean oil [18]. - **US Soybean Production**: The USDA August report increased the 25/26 US soybean yield but decreased the planting area by 2.5 million acres. The new - crop supply - demand has tightened, and there is a possibility of further tightening. If the yield drops to 52.5 bushels, the ending inventory will decline to a very low level of 200 million bushels [19]. - **US Soybean Demand**: In the biodiesel sector, the increase in demand for US soybean oil in biodiesel is likely, but the increase may be lower than expected. In the export sector, as of August 18, there was no news of China's resumption of US soybean purchases, which may suppress US soybean prices [20]. - **South American Soybeans**: China continues to purchase a large amount of Brazilian soybeans. If China does not buy US soybeans, the cost of Brazilian soybeans will increase, and Argentina's soybean meal may be imported in large quantities in the fourth quarter [23]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to August, a large amount of South American soybeans entered China, leading to high inventories of domestic soybeans and soybean oil. In the short term, the supply is sufficient, but after October, if US soybeans cannot be imported, the supply will tighten, which is beneficial for soybean oil destocking [23]. Rapeseed Oil - **Price Fluctuation**: The price of rapeseed oil has fluctuated significantly due to the preliminary anti - dumping review of Canadian rapeseed. After the initial sharp rise, it declined due to the risk warning from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and news of alternative imports [38]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: After August 14, the import of Canadian rapeseed will decrease significantly. Although there are plans to increase imports from other countries, they cannot fully make up for the supply shortage. The supply - demand of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to tighten, which is beneficial for price increases. However, policy adjustments and alternative imports may disrupt prices [40]. - **Impact on Canada**: China is the largest buyer of Canadian rapeseed. After the anti - dumping review, the export demand of Canadian rapeseed will face a significant decline, and the supply - demand will shift from slightly loose to significantly loose or even severely surplus, suppressing the price of Canadian rapeseed [50]. - **International Trade**: After the anti - dumping decision, China's dependence on Canadian rapeseed products will decrease, while its dependence on Australian rapeseed and rapeseed oil from other countries will increase. Canada will increase its dependence on the US, UAE, and the EU [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff policies have three main impacts on copper prices: reshaping the global trade environment and hindering economic development and copper demand; the 232 copper tariff mainly affects semi - finished copper product imports and exports, with limited impact on the domestic copper industry; and the tariff policies may lead to a weaker US dollar index, which could boost copper prices due to copper's financial attributes [1][31]. - In the long run, although the US may impose phased tariffs on refined copper starting from 2027, the actual implementation may fall short of expectations, and the impact is still far off [2][31]. - Currently, copper pricing has returned to fundamentals. With tight copper concentrate supply, high domestic smelter output, and low domestic copper inventories, combined with the expectation of increased demand in the peak season, copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile [31][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. US Tariff Policy Review (1) Reciprocal Tariffs - In April, Trump imposed a 10% "benchmark tariff" on all countries and higher "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with large trade surpluses with the US. The reasons include the need for tariff revenue to offset tax cuts and using tariffs as a bargaining chip [6]. - The China - US tariff game has been intense, with multiple rounds of tariff increases and subsequent suspensions of some tariffs [6][7]. (2) 232 Copper Tariffs - On July 30, the US 232 copper tariff was announced, imposing a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1, while exempting copper input materials and copper scrap. The White House also requires 25% of high - quality copper scrap and primary copper products to be sold domestically [8]. - Before the tariff implementation, market concerns led to increased demand for copper futures and a rise in copper prices. After the tariff was implemented, the exemption of refined copper caused a sharp drop in copper futures prices [9][10]. II. Analysis of the Impact of US Tariffs on Copper Prices (1) Tariff Policies Reshape the Global Trade Pattern, Hindering Economic Development and Copper Demand - The US tariff policies disrupt economic globalization, negatively affecting global economic growth. In 2025, the global economic growth rate is expected to slow, and copper consumption may be impacted [14][16]. (2) The 232 Copper Tariff Exempts Refined Copper, and the Impact of Copper Product Tariffs is Limited - The proportion of China's copper product exports to the US is small. The tariff aims to reshape the US copper industry chain. The exemption of refined copper benefits copper - smelting and copper - producing countries. The tariff may reduce the US demand for imported copper products and increase domestic processing capacity [17][19]. - The high COMEX copper inventory in the US can meet domestic demand, and the probability of copper flowing back to the Eurasian market is small. The impact on Shanghai copper is limited due to the closed import window and low domestic copper inventories [22][24]. (3) Tariffs Affect the Weakening of the US Dollar Index, and Copper's Financial Attributes May Boost Copper Prices - Copper prices are negatively correlated with the US dollar index. Trump's tariff policies initially pushed the US dollar to strengthen but later led to its weakening. The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the high probability of a September interest rate cut may further weaken the US dollar and boost copper prices [27][29]. III. Summary and Outlook - The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies remains. The impact on copper prices is mainly in three aspects as mentioned above. In the long run, the implementation of refined copper tariffs may be less than expected [30][31]. - With the improvement of the macro - environment, copper pricing has returned to fundamentals. Supported by fundamentals and the expectation of interest rate cuts, copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile [31][33].

Core Views - Trump and Zelensky reported a good atmosphere in their talks; Trump also spoke with Putin, and both sides supported direct negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations. Li Qiang stated that effective measures will be taken to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, cultivate and expand service consumption, and increase efforts to expand effective investment. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen financial support for technology and consumption. The market is strong, and it is recommended to use the T+0 feature of stock index futures, maintain positions, closely monitor market trends, lock in positions when a downward trend appears based on technical analysis, earn profits during the period of rising market sentiment, and stabilize profits when the trend is unfavorable [1]. - Considering the absolute levels, the yield of 30-year old bonds has risen to 2.15%, and the yield of newly issued 30-year local bonds has adjusted to over 2.32%, which is sufficient to cover the lowered liability costs of insurance funds, helping to attract insurance fund allocation. Meanwhile, there is a demand for corrective movement in the technical analysis of the equity market. The bond market may experience a slight recovery due to the "return to loose" liquidity conditions and a slight decline in equity market sentiment [2]. Strategy Recommendations - For stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on dips [1]. - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. Market Review Stock Index Futures - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.82%, SSE 50 rose 0.08%, CSI 500 rose 1.28%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.58% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10-year main contract fell 0.29%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.21%, the 30-year main contract fell 1.33%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.04% [6]. Technical Analysis Stock Index Futures - The RSI indicator shows that the market is approaching a short-term high [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The KDJ indicator shows that the T contract may rebound [6]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Type | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,237.80 | 0.82 | 99,705 | 168,841 | | 2025-08-18 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,848.40 | 0.08 | 52,884 | 74,907 | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,608.00 | 1.28 | 83,689 | 129,184 | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 7,184.40 | 1.58 | 187,694 | 220,587 | | 2025-08-18 | 10-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.02 | -0.29 | 90,469 | 107,322 | | 2025-08-18 | 5-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.46 | -0.21 | 70,226 | 86,134 | | 2025-08-18 | 30-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 116.09 | -1.33 | 141,981 | 61,613 | | 2025-08-18 | 2-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.30 | -0.04 | 46,079 | 61,412 | [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - Bullish on dips; Treasury bonds - Neutral [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - Neutral; Iron ore - Bullish with a bias; Coking coal and coke - Neutral [1][6][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - Neutral; Aluminum - Bullish on dips; Nickel - Bearish on rallies; Tin - Neutral; Gold - Bullish on dips; Silver - Bullish on dips [1][11][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - Bearish; Soda ash - Short 09, long 05; Caustic soda - Bullish with a bias; Styrene - Neutral; Rubber - Bullish with a bias; Urea - Neutral; Methanol - Neutral; Polyolefins - Bearish [1][19][21] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - Bullish with a bias; Apples - Bullish with a bias; Jujubes - Bullish with a bias [1][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - Bearish on rallies; Eggs - Bearish on rallies; Corn - Neutral; Soybean meal - Bullish with limited upside; Oils and fats - Bullish with limited downside [1][37][39] Core Views - The global economic and political situation, including geopolitical events and policy announcements, significantly impacts the futures market. For example, geopolitical talks and central bank policies affect market sentiment and asset prices [6]. - Supply - demand fundamentals play a crucial role in determining the price trends of various commodities. Factors such as production capacity, inventory levels, and consumption demand vary across different industries and influence price movements [20][28]. - Seasonal factors and market expectations, like the "Golden September and Silver October" season in the cotton market and the peak - off - peak seasons in the energy and chemical industries, also affect commodity prices [35]. Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Trump's diplomatic activities and Chinese government's economic policies boost market sentiment. It is recommended to use the T + 0 feature of index futures, hold positions, and lock in profits during downward trends [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: High - yield bonds may attract insurance funds. The bond market may recover slightly due to potential "looser" liquidity and a slight decline in equity market sentiment [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After a sharp decline on Monday, prices are affected by external trade policies and internal supply - demand. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the RB2510 contract in the range of 3100 - 3300 [8]. - **Iron Ore**: With stable supply and strong demand, especially considering the National Day parade expectations, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias, and the 01 contract may face resistance at 840 - 850 [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal supply is tight but demand is weakening marginally. Coke supply may be affected by environmental policies, and demand remains strong. Both are expected to be volatile in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macroeconomic data and supply - demand fundamentals, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias, and the short - term operating range of Shanghai copper is 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: Due to factors such as bauxite supply and production capacity changes, and considering the potential impact of trade policies, it is recommended to take long positions on dips [12]. - **Nickel**: With an overall oversupply in the medium and long term, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: Supply is gradually improving, but demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within a range, with the SHFE tin 09 contract in the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US economic data and geopolitical events, prices are expected to have support at lower levels. It is recommended to take long positions on dips [17][18]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, uncertain export sustainability, and weak fundamentals suggest a short - term bearish trend, with the 01 contract in the range of 5000 - 5200 [20][21]. - **Soda Ash**: Due to supply - side concerns and inventory trends, it is recommended to short the 09 contract [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high supply and stable demand, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias, and the 09 contract may find support at 2500 [22]. - **Styrene**: Affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, prices are expected to be volatile, with the reference range of 7100 - 7400 [24]. - **Rubber**: After a price adjustment, with inventory changes and mixed market signals, it is expected to be bullish with a bias, in the range of 15200 - 15600 [27]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is mixed, and inventory is rising. Prices are expected to be neutral, with support at 1700 - 1720 and resistance at 1820 - 1850 [28][29]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased slightly, demand is mixed, and port inventory is rising. Prices are expected to be neutral and may be slightly bearish [30]. - **Polyolefins**: Affected by cost and demand factors, prices are expected to be bearish, with the L2509 contract in the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6900 - 7200 [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand conditions have improved, and with the arrival of the peak season, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias [35]. - **Apples**: With low inventory and growth - related impacts, prices are expected to remain high and volatile [36]. - **Jujubes**: Based on the growth situation and market supply, prices are expected to rise with a bias [36]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Supply pressure remains, but there may be short - term rebounds. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies and consider the long 05, short 03 arbitrage [39]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient in the short term, and it is recommended to take short positions on rallies. If the culling process accelerates, there may be long - entry opportunities for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][41]. - **Corn**: With sufficient supply and expected cost reduction, prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to short on rebounds or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [42]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean supply - demand is tightening, but domestic supply is abundant in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions in a rolling manner and reduce positions on rallies [44]. - **Oils and Fats**: Although there are short - term correction risks, the long - term trend is bullish. It is recommended to take long positions on dips and pay attention to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse spread [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Stock Index - A-share broad-based indexes had positive weekly gains, with the ChiNext Index having the largest cumulative gain of 8.58%, followed by the STAR 50 Index with a 5.53% cumulative gain [9]. - After the "Trump-Putin meeting", Trump proposed a "direct peace agreement" between Russia and Ukraine. There is no plan to impose additional tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil. US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month-on-month, and real retail sales have grown for ten consecutive months. China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen financial support for technology and consumption. The market is strong, and although it may oscillate in the short term, the medium-term upward trend remains unchanged [9]. Treasury Bonds - In the context of the continuous heavy-volume rise in the equity market, there is a need to highly focus on the possibility of residents' funds flowing from fund management to the equity market, and the increase in trading volume also raises the risk of frictions in the inter - bank market funds. The increase in risk appetite leading to greater fluctuations in the liability side of broad funds and increased frictions in the capital market may be important potential risks for the bond market recently [10]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: A-share broad-based indexes all had positive weekly gains, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.58% and the STAR 50 Index rising 5.53% [9]. - **Core View**: The market may oscillate at high points, but the medium-term upward trend remains unchanged. Those with positions can continue to hold or lock in positions on pullbacks, and those without positions can consider buying on pullbacks [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The RSI indicator shows that the market index may have a pullback risk [9]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Buy on pullbacks [9]. Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: On Friday, the bond market sentiment fluctuated sharply. In the morning, the market recovered significantly, but as the equity market rose rapidly, the bond market situation reversed, and yields rose unilaterally. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose 2.5BP, the 10 - year CDB bond yield rose 3.75BP, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield rose 4BP [10]. - **Core View**: In the context of the equity market's rise, there are potential risks in the bond market, and it is necessary to avoid the adjustment in the short term [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Focus on taking profits [10]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal trends. Supply and demand both weakened, with external demand falling more明显 on the demand side and production slowing on the supply side. Upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while downstream export - oriented industries were suppressed [17]. Inflation - In July 2025, the CPI was flat year - on - year and rose 0.4% month - on - month; the PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI remained sluggish [20]. Industrial Added Value - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value fell to 5.7%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index fell to 5.8%. The decline in industrial added value was mainly dragged down by the export chain [23]. Fixed - Asset Investment - The estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in July turned negative to - 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing, narrow - sense infrastructure, and real estate investment in the current month fell to - 0.3%, - 5.1%, and - 17.0% respectively. The reasons for the negative growth are complex, including short - term extreme weather and statistical method issues, medium - term export expectation decline and policy implementation, and long - term real estate investment convergence [26]. Social Retail Sales - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales fell to 3.7%, and that of above - quota retail sales fell to 2.8%. The weakening was mainly reflected in the low - level shock of catering revenue, the weakening of sales of state - subsidized categories, and the decline in real - estate chain consumption [29]. Social Financing - In July 2025, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were - 50 billion yuan. At the end of July, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 9.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. Although the credit growth was negative, social financing, M1, and M2 growth rates improved with fiscal support. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and policies may be adjusted according to the situation [32]. Imports and Exports - In July 2025, China's exports were $321.78 billion, imports were $223.54 billion, and the trade surplus was $98.24 billion. The import and export performance in July was significantly stronger than market expectations, mainly due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariff increases [35]. Weekly Focus - August 20, 09:00: China's five - year and one - year loan prime rates (LPR) for August [37]. - August 20, 14:00: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [37]. - August 21, 16:00: Eurozone's preliminary manufacturing PMI for August [37]. - August 21, 21:45: US preliminary Markit manufacturing and service PMI for August [37]. - August 22 - 24: The 2025 China Computing Power Conference will be held in Datong, Shanxi [37].

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 碳酸锂周报 2025/8/18 01 周度观点 l 供需状况： 从供应端来看，宁德枧下窝矿山确认停产3个月，中信国安超采被要求停产，7月国内碳酸锂产量环比增加5.8%，6月锂精矿进口 量环比减少5%，6月锂盐进口环比减少16%，预计后续南美锂盐进口量将对供应形成补充。从需求端来看，储能终端需求较好，8月 大型电芯厂排产环比增加7%。宜春和青海地区生产企业均收到矿权转让重审的通知，矿证风险持续存在，供应受到影响，利润修复 背景下矿石提锂持续增产，成本中枢上移。电池厂长协客供比例提高，预计短期碳酸锂价格具有支撑。下游排产超预期，当前矿端减 产情况对整体供应影响频发，下游采购碳酸锂相对谨慎，预计价格延续强势局面，建议谨慎交易，建议持续关注上游企业减产情况和 正极材料厂排产情况。 资料来源：IFIND、SMM、百川盈孚、长江期货有色产 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of precious metals has corrected due to factors such as the unexpected US PPI data in July, the meeting between the US and Russia leading to a cooling of risk aversion, the significant shortfall of the US non - farm payrolls data in July, and the sharp decline in the market's expectation of an aggressive interest rate cut in September. However, due to concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, the precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the signal of a September interest rate cut released by Powell at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium [5][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of last Friday, the price of US gold closed at $3382 per ounce, down 2.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3450, and the lower support level is $3320. The price of US silver closed at $38 per ounce, down 1.3% for the week. The lower support level is $37, and the upper resistance level is $39.5 [5]. 3.2 Weekly View - The price of precious metals has corrected due to multiple factors, including the unexpected US PPI data, the meeting between the US and Russia, and the significant shortfall of the US non - farm payrolls data. The market's expectation of an aggressive interest rate cut in September has cooled significantly. The results of the US trade negotiations with multiple countries have been finalized, and the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe has increased. Although the market expects an interest rate cut in September, Powell's remarks at the interest rate meeting were hawkish. The US tariff policy has basically been finalized, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, so the precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the signal of a September interest rate cut released by Powell at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents data and trends of various overseas macroeconomic indicators such as real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), exchange rates (euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar), the US dollar index, yield spreads (10Y - 2Y), gold - silver ratio, the Fed's balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific conclusions are drawn [15][18][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - US CPI annual rate unadjusted in July was 2.7%, expected 2.8%, and the previous value was 2.7%. - US PPI annual rate in July was 3.3%, expected 2.5%, and the previous value was 2.3%. - US retail sales monthly rate in July was 0.5%, expected 0.5%, and the previous value was 0.6%. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in August was 58.6, expected 62, and the previous value was 61.7 [28]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The meeting between the US and Russia on Friday lasted about two and a half hours, with limited exchanges on specific issues, and no agreement text or specific arrangements were announced. Zelensky will visit Washington on Monday to meet with Trump, and Trump hopes to hold a summit between the US, Russia, and Ukraine before August 22 if the talks go well. - The US PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month in July, significantly higher than the zero growth in June and the market expectation of 0.2%, the largest increase since June 2022. The core PPI in July rose 3.7% year - on - year, expected 2.9%, and the previous value was 2.6%; it rose 0.9% month - on - month, expected 0.2%, and the previous value was flat [30]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory increased by 1,597 kg to 1,201,725.17 kg this week, and SHFE inventory increased by 300 kg to 36,045 kg. - Silver: COMEX inventory increased by 32,933.21 kg to 15,786,620.42 kg this week, and SHFE inventory decreased by 16,832 kg to 1,141,555 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Position - This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 220,543 contracts, a decrease of 9,674 contracts from last week. - This week, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 41,696 contracts, a decrease of 6,804 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday, August 21, at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ended August 16 will be released; at 21:45, the preliminary value of the US SPGI Manufacturing PMI for August will be released. - On Friday, August 22, at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium [41]. Strategy Suggestion Buy on dips after the price correction. Refer to the operating range of 760 - 810 for the Shanghai Gold 10 contract and 8800 - 9500 for the Shanghai Silver 10 contract [13].