2025-12-08 产业服务总部 能化产业服务中心 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字 [2014]1 号 研究员 张英 供应：2025 年 1-11 月，PE 累计产量达 3018.38 万吨， 同比增加 18.85%，11 月，PE 产量 289.09 万吨，环比+0.25%。 2025 年 1-11 月，PP 累计产量达 3666.55 万吨，同比增加 16.83%，11 月，PP 产量 346.55 万吨，环比-1.09%。在聚烯 烃的产能投放周期下，各月产量均为历史高位。 需求：2025 年，受制于下游需求弱势，聚烯烃下游开工率 不同程度地出现不及预期的情况。PE 下游需求方面，农膜开工 率已有见顶回落趋势，地膜需求难以支撑。包装膜及 PE 管材 开工同比偏低，基本维持刚需采购为主。PP 下游需求方面，塑 编、BOPP 及 PP 管材开工情况尚好，但整体需求跟进不足。 总结：2026 年上半年聚烯烃装置新投产产能较少，几乎是 新投产真空期，随着春节后传统旺季的到来，国内聚烯烃库存 有望得到消化。下半年是聚烯烃主要装置集中投产期，随着产 能放量，供应端压力再次剧增。总体来 ...

产业服务总部 饲料养殖中心 豆粕年报：底部支撑渐显，波动中寻机遇 观点总结 供应端：目前市场暂时维持南美 2025/26 年度大豆的丰产预期，全 球大豆总供应量增幅低于总需求增幅，期末库存及库销比均高位回落， 供需格局略微收紧。全球 2025/26 年度产量达 4.22 亿吨，同比减少 539 万吨，其中巴西大豆产量 1.75 亿吨、美国大豆产量 1.16 亿吨、阿根廷 大豆产量 4850 万吨，产量增幅主要来自于巴西，美国及阿根廷大豆产 量同比减少；国内进口来看，2025/26 年度中国大豆进口量 1.12 亿吨， 同比增加 400 万吨，其中预计 2500 万吨来自美国。不过 12-1 全球面 临拉尼娜天气影响，天气炒作仍存，因此南美产量变化幅度决定供需收 紧幅度。 需求端：2026 年预计国内生猪、禽类存栏依旧高位，支撑饲料需 求。但整体存栏量预计同比 2025 年度小幅下滑；配方来看，受豆粕性 价比提升以及豆粕价格偏低影响，豆粕添加比例同比提高。高存栏以及 高性价比下支撑豆粕需求，预计 2026 年度豆粕需求维持在 8500 万吨 以上，对应大豆量在 1 亿吨以上。 成本端：巴西 2025/26 年度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In the 2024 - 25 season, global cotton demand grew steadily driven by China and the US, but the significant increase in production led to weak prices. In the domestic market, due to a sharp reduction in imports, the spot market was tight, prices were relatively firm, and the basis was high with a large gap between domestic and international prices. In the 2025 - 26 season, global production will continue to grow, while the demand side has uncertainties as China's economy is expected to recover but the US economy is uncertain. Considering the tight domestic spot market, cotton prices are expected to remain in a volatile and slightly upward - trending pattern next year [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factor Analysis - **Gradual recovery of social retail data**: From January to October 2025, China's social consumer goods retail market showed stable growth, structural optimization, and urban - rural coordination. The total retail sales from January to October reached 4.12169 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. With policy and technological support, the annual total is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan [4][7]. - **Relatively large pressure on price levels**: In 2025, China's prices showed a "low - then - high, moderately recovering" trend. The CPI turned positive in October (up 0.2% year - on - year) and then declined slightly in November (down 0.5% year - on - year). The PPI turned positive in October (up 0.1% month - on - month) and then decreased in November (down 0.3% month - on - month), but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. In 2026, prices are expected to rise moderately [8][11]. - **Expected steady recovery of the macro - economy**: With policy changes, the macro - economy is expected to show a steady recovery. On the supply side, measures include increasing high - quality service supply and reducing over - capacity. On the demand side, external demand from the US and Europe is expected to be stable, and domestic demand potential lies in service consumption [12][13]. - **Strong resilience of the US economy**: In November, the US PMI was supported by the service sector, with manufacturing declining, consumer spending slowing, and corporate investment to be further restored. The third - quarter GDP growth rate was 3.9% quarter - on - quarter annualized. The employment market showed some signs of recovery, but there were still risks of layoffs. The market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut fluctuated greatly [14][21]. 3.2 Cotton Supply Analysis - **Slightly loose global supply - demand balance**: According to the USDA's November report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, an increase of 2.0% from September; consumption is expected to be 25.883 million tons, an increase of 0.04%; and the ending inventory is expected to be 16.532 million tons, an increase of 3.8%. The ending inventory has reached a recent high [23]. - **Tight domestic supply - demand situation**: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic beginning inventory is 6.16 million tons, and the production is 7.42 million tons. The total demand is expected to be 8.45 million tons, with the ending inventory decreasing to 6.33 million tons. The domestic market is relatively tight due to reduced imports and stable consumption [25]. - **Tight commercial and industrial inventories**: As of November 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 24.2% from the end of October but 5.31% lower than the same period last year. The industrial inventory was 931,400 tons, an increase of 59,400 tons year - on - year. The overall inventory is still limited [26]. 3.3 Cotton Spinning Consumption Analysis - **Strong US consumption**: From January to August 2025, the US textile and clothing imports increased by 4.43% in volume and 1.47% in value year - on - year. The cotton product imports increased by 3.83% in volume and 4.66% in value. In September, the retail sales of clothing and accessories increased by 6.65% year - on - year [31]. - **Export performance with high - then - low trend**: In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59%. From January to October, the exports were 243.936 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.58%. The export situation was better in the first half of the year [34]. - **Steady growth of domestic demand**: In October 2025, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 1205.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [38]. 3.4 Main Concerns - **Changes in Xinjiang cotton planting policy**: The continuous increase in Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production has put pressure on the supply - demand balance and increased subsidy costs. The direct subsidy policy is likely to be adjusted, and there may be other policies to adjust the planting area [43]. - **Changes in the RMB exchange rate**: With the depreciation of the US dollar and the strength of China's manufacturing, the RMB is appreciating, which may bring pressure on textile and clothing exports [44]. - **Sustainability of US consumption**: Although the US textile and clothing consumption has been strong, there are concerns about the US economy due to weak employment data and PMI. However, the Fed's interest - rate cuts may support the economy [45]. 3.5 Market Outlook In 2026, the global cotton market is expected to see both supply and demand increase. The domestic spot market will remain tight. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts and China's economic recovery, cotton prices are expected to be volatile and slightly upward - trending, but attention should be paid to policy, exchange - rate, and consumption changes [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass industry will be further exacerbated in 2026, accelerating the transmission from the mid - stream trading and processing links to the upstream raw sheet production and supply end, and promoting capacity clearance. The cold - repair pressure on production lines will be greater, with small production lines of around 600 tons per day likely to be shut down. The daily melting volume may need to drop below 130,000 tons to match the demand reduction, and without large - scale inventory reduction, the spot price has limited room for improvement [1][33][40]. - In 2026, there may be short - term opportunities due to unplanned cold - repairs of glass production lines and the news of natural gas conversion in Hubei, but it is difficult to bottom - fish. The annual futures price is expected to operate weakly at the bottom of the cost line [3][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price Trend Review - In 2025, the glass market showed a trend of first falling, then rising, and then falling again, with the futures weighted fluctuating between 958 - 1,470 yuan/ton. The overall supply exceeded demand, and high inventories in the mid - upstream suppressed the spot price and affected the futures rebound. Policies such as "Supply - side 2.0" and "Anti - involution" temporarily boosted the market, but the market sentiment weakened after the macro - meetings, and the market returned to the weak fundamentals [6]. - At the beginning of the year, the rescue of Vanke by the Shenzhen government and the rumored new energy - consumption restriction policy boosted the price. However, concerns about downstream demand due to the poor resumption of work at construction sites and insufficient downstream orders led to a setback in the price increase. In February, high inventory in Hubei led to price cuts, and the failure of policy expectations and the impact of international factors caused the futures to decline in the first half of the year. In July, policy expectations drove a short - term rise, but subsequent market sentiment cooling led to a sharp correction. In October, the traditional peak - season demand was disappointing, and the market turned down again. Near the end of the year, cold - repairs of production lines slightly pushed up the price, but the upward space of near - month contracts was limited [6][8]. 3.2 2025 Glass Supply and Demand Review and Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Review and Analysis - From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of flat glass in China was 805 million weight boxes, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The daily melting volume remained stable below 160,000 tons. There were 5 newly - ignited production lines with a total new daily melting volume of 3,610 tons, 17复产 production lines with a total daily melting volume of 12,100 tons, and 28 cold - repaired or shut - down production lines with a total daily melting volume of 18,370 tons. As of early December, the daily melting volume was 156,155 tons per day, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the beginning of the year and 1.8% year - on - year [9]. 3.2.2 Demand Review and Analysis - **Deep - processing demand**: From January to October 2025, the output of tempered glass decreased by 6.8%, and the average operating rate of low - e was 44.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Mid - stream glass processing plants had a cold business due to factors such as tight funds, lack of demand, and the risk of business closures. Mid - stream enterprises mainly replenished inventory at low prices, and the active purchasing times corresponded to the low - price intervals of the spot [17]. - **Terminal demand**: The real - estate data continued to deteriorate in 2025. Although there was a slight improvement in sales in the first half of the year and in construction and completion indicators in the second half, real - estate development investment continued to weaken. In the automotive industry, production and sales increased rapidly due to policies and market factors, and new - energy vehicles became the mainstream in October [20]. 3.2.3 Inventory Review and Analysis - The inventory in the Shahe area remained similar to that of last year, while the inventory in the central China region increased rapidly, with Hubei becoming a price depression. The national factory inventory was generally at a high level of 60 - 70 million weight boxes. Although the inventory decreased in July due to the actions of futures - cash merchants, the social inventory increased in the second half of the year, leading to a decline in the spot and futures prices [23]. 3.3 2026 Glass Supply and Demand Forecast 3.3.1 Supply Forecast - In 2025, the average daily melting volume was 158,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons year - on - year, while the visible inventory of national factories was basically the same as last year, and the invisible social inventory increased significantly. In 2026, the pressure for cold - repairs of production lines will be greater, mainly shutting down small production lines of around 600 tons per day. It is predicted that the daily melting volume may need to drop below 130,000 tons to match the demand reduction. There are 4 potential newly - ignited production lines with a total design capacity of 3,700 tons per day, 5 potential复产 production lines with a total capacity of 3,450 tons per day, and 15 potential cold - repaired production lines with a total capacity of 9,900 tons per day [30]. 3.3.2 Demand Forecast - Since the new construction area has been declining by more than 20% annually since 2022, the demand at the real - estate completion end will continue to decline. The supply - demand mismatch in the glass industry has spread from the real - estate end to the mid - stream trading and processing links. In 2026, the contradiction will further worsen, and the overall demand for glass will still be insufficient, despite the increasing demand for some products such as second - hand housing decoration glass, automotive glass, and electronic ultra - thin glass [33]. 3.3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data from November 2025 to February 2026E, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [40]. 3.4 Summary - **Supply - demand contradiction and capacity clearance**: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass industry will continue to worsen in 2026, accelerating the transmission from the mid - stream to the upstream and promoting capacity clearance. The cold - repair pressure on production lines will increase, and it is difficult for the price to rise without a significant reduction in inventory [40]. - **Short - term opportunities and overall trend**: In 2026, there may be short - term opportunities due to unplanned cold - repairs and the news of natural gas conversion in Hubei, but the overall futures price is expected to operate weakly at the bottom of the cost line [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility due to a more relaxed ore supply and a slightly oversupplied production capacity [1][29][92] - The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly as the operating capacity approaches the ceiling, and imports are expected to increase to offset the supply - demand gap. The downstream demand for aluminum is undergoing a structural transformation [2][45][92] - The price of aluminum alloy will still be pegged to the price of aluminum in 2026, but its seasonal performance will be weaker than before [3][53][93] - The price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to show an upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as global economic recovery, new - energy transformation, and power construction [3][93] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Market Review - In 2025, aluminum prices showed a trend of oscillating upward breakthrough, divided into three stages: oscillating upward from January to mid - March, oscillating downward from mid - March to early April, and oscillating upward from early April to November. The price fluctuations were affected by various factors such as policies, tariffs, inventory changes, and macro - events [6][7][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite production increased slightly in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.2% from January to November. However, production was restricted in some areas due to safety and environmental regulations. Imported bauxite increased significantly, with imports from January to October reaching 171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The price of imported bauxite decreased due to increased supply. There were some disturbances in the supply from Guinea, and the political situation in Guinea may affect future supply policies [14][16][18] 3.2.2 Alumina - In 2025, alumina production increased, with output from January to October reaching 78.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.56%. The price first declined, then rebounded, and then fell again. New production capacity was limited in 2025, mainly from Guangxi Huasheng Phase II, Shandong Chuangyuan New Materials, and Hebei Wenfeng. In 2026, new overseas production capacity will be mainly in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Alumina production capacity is expected to be slightly oversupplied in 2026, and prices will be determined by cost, showing an oscillating downward trend [22][24][29] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2025, the built - in and operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, with production from January to October reaching 36.8908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.57%. Many enterprises resumed production due to improved profitability, while some enterprises carried out technical upgrades and maintenance, resulting in production cuts. New production capacity mainly came from Shuangyuan Aluminum, Chalco Qinghai, and others. In 2026, new domestic production capacity will mainly come from Huomeihongjun Zhalv Phase II and Tianshan Aluminum. Overseas production capacity increased in 2025, mainly in Indonesia, Russia, and other countries, and is expected to increase by 1.8 million tons in 2026. The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly in 2026, and imports are expected to increase [30][35][45] 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - Although the import of scrap aluminum was liberalized in 2024, there was no significant increase in 2025 due to factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates, tariff differences, and tightened trade policies in some countries. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased steadily, and the listing of aluminum alloy futures promoted production. After the listing of the futures, the production of cast aluminum alloy increased significantly, suppressing the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the seasonal effect was weakened [48][50][52] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Real Estate - In 2025, the real estate market continued to decline. In 2026, the real estate market is expected to continue to bottom out, and the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector will continue to decrease. However, urban renewal and affordable rental housing will support part of the aluminum demand [54][56][58] 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In 2025, the issuance of local government special bonds increased, but part of the funds was used for debt repayment, resulting in a slowdown in infrastructure investment growth. The investment in the power grid reached a new high. In 2026, with the increase in special bond quotas and the promotion of power grid construction, the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is expected to increase by 5% [59][61][69] 3.3.3 Automobile - In 2025, the automobile market had good production and sales performance, with new - energy vehicle penetration exceeding 50%. In 2026, although consumption policies are expected to be strengthened and export demand is optimistic, factors such as the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption and the implementation of new battery standards may lead to flat demand for aluminum in the automobile industry [70][72][75] 3.3.4 Photovoltaic - In 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic increased significantly in the first half of the year but decreased sharply after June due to the "430 New Policy" and "531 New Policy". In 2026, the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic is expected to decline significantly, and although the overseas new installed capacity is expected to grow at a rate of 25%, the overall demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic industry is expected to decrease [76][79][82] 3.3.5 Aluminum and Aluminum Product Exports - In 2025, the net export of aluminum products decreased, mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the imposition of tariffs. The export of aluminum products increased. In 2026, due to the continuation of policies and the strengthening of the domestic aluminum price, the net export of aluminum and aluminum products is expected to decline [83][85][86] 3.4 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of 2025, aluminum inventories decreased significantly, while in the second half, they increased seasonally. In 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is expected to have a shortage of 100,000 tons [88][90][91] 3.5 2026 Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility; the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down, imports will increase, and downstream demand will transform; the price of aluminum alloy will be pegged to aluminum with weaker seasonality; the price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to rise [92][93]

2025-12-08 产业服务总部 饲料养殖中心 全球植物油：供应端，USDA11 月预估 25/26 年度全球植物油增产放慢，其中 菜油增产幅度最大而棕油增产最小。需求端，各国生物柴油政策发力，在增强油脂 国内消费的同时缩紧了油脂出口，不过总需求依然同比增长。需求增幅大于供应增 幅，25/26 年度全球植物油期末库存及库销比均同比下降，供需继续收紧，对植物油 价格有支撑。后续全球油脂市场的不确定性将主要集中于南美大豆/印尼棕油产量和 各国生物柴油政策上，可能造成价格剧烈波动：一是 25/26 年度美豆及南美豆因为 天气炒作，印尼棕油因为种植园强征等原因导致产量下降，收紧供应。二是美国和 印尼利多植物油生柴需求的生柴政策能否成功落地。 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询 业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 棕油：供应端，目前市场对 2026 年东南亚棕油产量预估较为乐观，印尼两国均 同比增产。需求端，印度人口增长带来的刚性需求与印尼 B40 计划支撑，2025 年 产地棕油出口及国内消费有望维持强劲。供需双强下，25/26 年度印马库存预计都 同比下滑，马来库存历史中位，印尼库存则是更紧张的历史低位。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the 2024 - 25 season, due to reduced apple storage and declining quality, the price of high - quality apples was significantly higher, and the overall price increased compared to the previous year. In the 2025 - 26 season, apples are generally smaller and of lower quality, with further reduced storage volume. The apple price in the new season may show significant differentiation [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Apple Market Review - The 2025 apple futures market showed phased growth and high - level fluctuations, driven by supply (yield, quality, inventory) and demand (demand differentiation). It can be divided into three stages: from January to June, low inventory and expected yield reduction drove the price to rise steadily from 7,800 yuan/ton to about 8,000 yuan/ton; from July to September, the price fluctuated at a high level around 8,000 yuan/ton due to confirmed yield reduction and higher opening prices of early - maturing apples; from October to November, the price accelerated to rise due to yield reduction and quality problems during the new apple harvest season [4][6]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Social Retail Data - From January to October 2025, China's social consumer retail market showed stable growth and structural optimization. The cumulative social retail sales from January to October reached 41.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The service retail sales increased by 5.3% year - on - year, faster than the 4.4% growth of commodity retail sales. The full - year social retail sales are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [8][9][12]. Price Level - In 2025, China's prices showed a "low - then - high, mild recovery" trend. The CPI turned positive in October (up 0.2% year - on - year) and then declined slightly in November (down 0.5% year - on - year). The core CPI remained moderately increasing (up 0.6% year - on - year). The PPI turned positive in October (up 0.1% month - on - month) and then declined in November (down 0.3% month - on - month). The annual CPI is expected to increase by 0.1% - 0.6%, and the PPI is expected to decline by 0.6% - 3.0%. Fruit prices were high in the first half and low in the second half, basically the same as the 2024 average [13][14][15]. 3. Apple Supply and Demand Analysis Characteristics of the 2025 - 26 Apple Market - The 2025 apple season was affected by abnormal climate, with characteristics of reduced yield and planting area (about 10% reduction), smaller fruit size, lower high - quality fruit ratio (20% lower than normal), higher price (about 0.5 yuan/jin higher on average), greater inventory risk, and later harvest and storage time (about 10 days later than usual). The opening price of new apples was significantly higher than in previous years [16][19][20]. Fluctuations in Apple Planting Income - Apple planting costs are relatively fixed, with high and increasing labor costs. Income mainly comes from fruit sales, and prices vary greatly among different varieties. Income fluctuates due to price and yield changes, with price changes having a greater impact. The government is promoting the "insurance + futures" project to help farmers manage risks [21]. Slight Yield Reduction in the Current Season - In 2025, China's apple yield was about 3,431 million tons, a reduction of about 6% compared to 2024. Yield was adjusted based on bagging volume, fruit diameter, and high - quality fruit ratio. Different regions had different yield changes, with most major regions experiencing a decline, and only a few small - scale regions achieving slight increases [26][27]. Significantly Reduced Apple Storage - As of November 19, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was about 7.7316 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The low storage was caused by weather disasters reducing yield, quality decline reducing effective inventory, and high market prices suppressing acquisition demand [29][30][31]. 4. 2026 Outlook - Due to slow domestic consumption recovery and low overall yield with greater quality differences, the scarcity of high - quality apples will gradually emerge after the Spring Festival, while the supply of low - grade apples will be relatively abundant. Therefore, the apple price is expected to show significant differentiation, with high - quality apples commanding higher prices [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The egg supply in 2026: The number of newly opened laying hens from January to May is expected to be average, with no significant pressure. If the Spring Festival market fails to meet expectations, it may accelerate the elimination of laying hens and relieve the post - Spring Festival supply pressure, but the inventory base in the first half of 2026 remains high [1][2][43]. - The egg demand in 2026: The consumption is expected to be low after the Spring Festival and then rise. The demand will pick up due to festivals, and the price fluctuation caused by seasonality is expected to narrow [1][2][43]. - The feed cost in 2026: It is expected to rise first and then fall, with a slight year - on - year increase. The feed cost per catty of eggs is estimated to be between 2.5 - 2.85 yuan/catty [2][41][44]. - The market outlook for 2026: There may be a phased rebound, but capacity reduction is a long - term process, and one should not be overly optimistic [2][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Egg Market Review - The main theme of the spot price in 2025 was weak, with the price fluctuating in the range of 【2.54, 4.45】 yuan/catty, and the center of gravity moving down year - on - year [6]. - The price fluctuation went through five stages: decline from January to February, rebound and then decline from March to April, weak operation from April to early July, rise and then decline from mid - July to mid - September, and decline and then narrow - range fluctuation from late September to late November [6][7][8]. Fundamental Logic Analysis Supply Side - **In - production laying hen inventory**: In 2025, the inventory increased year - on - year and reached a peak. As of November, it was at a high level in the past six years, and although it is currently declining, the base is still large [13][14]. - **Chick replenishment**: In 2025, the replenishment volume decreased year - on - year, showing a trend of high in the front and low in the back. The newly opened laying hens from January to May 2026 are expected to be at an average level, with no significant pressure [17][18]. - **Elimination of laying hens**: In 2025, the elimination volume increased year - on - year, with high elimination in May - June and October - November. The current chicken age structure is relatively young. If the Spring Festival market is disappointing, it may relieve the post - Spring Festival supply pressure [20][22][23]. - **Inventory forecast for 2026**: From January to May 2026, the number of newly opened laying hens is not large. If the elimination accelerates during the Spring Festival, the inventory may decline, but the base is still high, and capacity reduction takes time [29][30]. Demand Side - **Consumption seasonality**: In 2025, egg consumption was still driven by festivals, with obvious seasonal patterns. The price fluctuation caused by seasonality has narrowed due to inventory adjustment [32][33][35]. - **Substitute demand analysis**: In the first half of 2026, the high pressure of pig slaughter and the expected decline of vegetable prices may reduce the cost - effectiveness of eggs and weaken the substitute demand. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to pig capacity reduction and extreme weather [37]. Cost Side - The cost of corn in 2026 is expected to be in the range of 2100 - 2350 yuan/ton, with a relatively loose supply - demand pattern [39]. - The supply and demand of soybean meal in 2026 are both strong, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price may fall after March [40]. - The feed cost for laying hens in 2026 is estimated to be 2.5 - 2.85 yuan/catty [41]. Market Outlook for 2026 - The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is expected to be relieved, but the inventory base is still high, which will limit the rebound height. - The demand is expected to be low after the Spring Festival and then rise, and the price fluctuation caused by seasonality will narrow. - The feed cost is expected to rise first and then fall, with a slight year - on - year increase. - There may be a phased rebound in the market, but capacity reduction is a long - term process, and one should not be overly optimistic.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the macro - atmosphere is generally warm. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is in the "second half", and China's policies are expected to be positive as it is the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan". However, demand still lacks highlights, and supply becomes the key variable. Raw materials face downward pressure, steel prices will fluctuate within a range, and there will be a differentiation between finished products and raw materials [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Review 1.1 Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated in a "down - up - down" pattern with a small amplitude. The first decline was due to overseas tariff policies and cost reduction, the rise in July was from anti - involution, and the second decline was from the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spread between the high and low points of the weighted closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils was only about 500 yuan [5]. - The average prices of coking coal and coke dropped significantly, with an annual average decline of over 25%. The average price of iron ore decreased by 8 US dollars/ton (6.88% decline), and the average prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased by about 300 yuan/ton (about 8.5% decline). The cost center of steel products moved down [9]. 1.2 Industrial Pattern - **Demand**: Domestic consumption of crude steel continued to decline, but steel and billet exports maintained high growth. From January to October, the cumulative apparent demand for crude steel decreased by 6.51% year - on - year, steel exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and net exports increased by 653 tons. The cumulative export of billets from January to October was 11.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.27 million tons [15]. - **Supply**: The consumption of scrap steel and the output of crude steel declined. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of pig iron and crude steel output were - 1.8% and - 3.9% respectively. The consumption of scrap steel decreased by 13.3% year - on - year. The output of rebar decreased by 4.8 million tons ( - 2.0% growth rate), and the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.8 million tons (5.30% growth rate) [19][23][27]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of iron ore and coking coal slightly declined, and inventories decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year. From January to October, the output of iron ore concentrate decreased by 3.70%, and imports increased by 0.62%. The supply of coking coal changed little year - on - year, with domestic production increasing by 1.17% and imports decreasing by 4.73%. The combined inventory of 247 sample steel mills and port trading mines decreased by about 10.65 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and the coking coal and coke inventory decreased by about 5.5 million tons [31][32]. 2026 Outlook 2.1 Overseas Macroeconomy - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is in the "second half". After restarting rate cuts in September and October 2025, it is expected to cut rates again in March and June 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to 3% - 3.25%, providing more room and autonomy for China's monetary policy [40]. 2.2 Domestic Macroeconomy - 2026 is the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with expected positive policy tones. Boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand may be the key focus [45]. 2.3 Infrastructure Demand - Since the second half of 2025, infrastructure investment growth has declined significantly. Policy tools such as new policy - based financial instruments and increased local government debt quotas have been introduced. Policy effects may be gradually released at the end of 2025 and early 2026, and infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable in 2026 [49]. 2.4 Real Estate Demand - In 2025, real estate data continued to decline. The real estate development model is changing from an incremental to a stock market. In 2026, real estate is expected to remain weak, with an estimated 10% decline in real estate investment and a continued decline in steel consumption for real estate [54]. 2.5 Manufacturing Demand - Since the second half of 2025, the monthly investment growth rate in the manufacturing industry has turned negative, with significant industry differentiation. In 2026, manufacturing investment is still under pressure, but industry differentiation will be severe [58]. 2.6 Import and Export Demand - In 2025, despite anti - dumping and trade wars, steel exports maintained growth due to changes in export destinations and varieties. In 2026, although challenges remain, steel exports are expected to remain high due to corporate expansion overseas and adjustment of export structures [60][62]. 2.7 Supply - In 2026, policy influence on the steel supply side may increase. The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes carbon emission control, and it is possible to restrict steel production through carbon emissions, which may become the main trading logic in the market [66][69]. 2.8 Raw Materials - **Coking Coal**: In 2026, domestic coking coal production may be regulated according to demand. Mongolian coking coal imports are expected to increase by about 7 million tons [74]. - **Iron Ore**: Overseas iron ore supply is expected to increase by about 72 million tons in 2026, while domestic production will remain stable. The supply of overseas iron ore projects is progressing faster than domestic ones [87]. 3. Outlook - Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cut is in the "second half", and China's policies are expected to be positive. Industry - wise, demand lacks highlights, supply is the key variable, and raw materials face downward pressure. Steel prices will fluctuate within a range, and there will be a differentiation between finished products and raw materials. Opportunities in going long on steel and short on iron ore can be considered [88][89][91].

公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字 [2014]1 号 研究员： 汪国栋 咨询电话：027-65777106 从业编号：F03101701 投资咨询编号：Z0021167 相关研究 2025-12-08 《行情仍然可期》 -2025.7.2 《政策预期引导，价格循序渐进》 -2024.12.27 《牛途未尽，逢低买入》 -2024.6.28 《布局多头，关注预期差》 -2023.12.28 《短期调整，不改长期配置价值》 -2023.7.3 《周期切换可期，运行中枢上移》 -2022.12.27 流动性支撑，牛市延续 产业服务总部 ——贵金属年度策略 有色产业服务中心 报告要点 ◆ 总观点 美国经济指标走弱，美国零售销售、就业数据陆续走弱，导致美国 经济预期恶化。前期美国经济保持韧性，在于美国财政赤字持续大规模 扩张支持居民和企业资产负债表修复，如果美国财政力度在 2026 年财年 后期大幅削减，可能对经济形成拖累。美联储多位官员发表鸽派发言， 市场预期 12 月降息概率大幅升温。哈塞特可能成为下任美联储主席，哈 塞特与特朗普关系紧密，并主张降息，市场预期明年降息次数增加。 美元信 ...