2025-12-8 通胀筑底回升，市场慢牛延续 长江期货 ——2026 年金融期货年报 核心观点 2025 年，中国资本市场在外部环境扰动、内部政策调 节、科技产业突破的三重博弈中度过。A 股市场制度不断完 善，慢牛格局逐步稳定，核心驱动力始终围绕政策预期与风险 偏好的波动展开，市场在外部冲击与内部托底的反复拉扯中完 成多轮切换。今年市场的上涨更多是估值驱动，在基本面温和 复苏的路径下，2026 年或逐步转向盈利驱动。 展望 2026 年，中国经济将在财政积极与货币协同的双宽 松格局下，步入宏观温和复苏、微观盈利筑底修复的新阶段。 经济增长预计保持韧性，CPI 与 PPI 价格的温和回升将成为驱 动企业盈利改善的关键宏观要素。资本市场的主导逻辑将从 2025 年的估值与预期修复，有望转向由基本面驱动的真实盈 利增长。在这一背景下，股市或呈现结构性机遇，而债市则将 在政策的平衡与制约中呈现区间震荡格局。 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字 {2014}1 号 研究员 张志恒 从业证号：F03102085 投资咨询编号：Z0021210 咨询电话：027-65777169 （一）股指期 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 08 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Recommending range trading for coking coal and rebar; advising to wait and not chase highs for glass [1][5][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggesting range trading for copper, tin, and gold; recommending to reduce long positions when aluminum rebounds to a high level; advising to wait and see or short on rallies for nickel; suggesting to hold long positions in silver and be cautious about new positions; expecting lithium carbonate to trade with a bullish bias [1][10][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Recommending range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; suggesting to wait and see for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][19][21][26] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to trade with a bullish bias; expecting PTA to rise in a sideways movement; expecting apples to trade with a bullish bias; expecting red dates to trade weakly [1][27][28][29] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Recommending a strategy of shorting on rallies for near - term hog contracts and being cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; expecting egg prices to face limited upside; suggesting to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and for grain holders to hedge on rallies; recommending range trading for soybean meal; suggesting to take profits on previous long positions in soybean and palm oil and beware of correction risks [1][30][32][36] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the price trends and investment opportunities of different sectors, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton and textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry [1][5][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - shares fluctuated and recovered. Although the market's main line rotated quickly and trading volume was poor, expectations of Fed rate cuts and domestic meetings supported the indices. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures opened and closed lower. Whether the market can break out of the current range depends on the actual buying power of year - end allocation funds and the guidance of important meetings on next year's economic situation and monetary policy. They are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: The coal market continued to decline, with weak demand and a strong bearish sentiment. It is expected to trade in a range [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded slightly. The current valuation is neutral to low, and there are no significant short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is expected to trade sideways at a low level [7] - **Glass**: Futures prices rebounded recently due to rumors of production line shutdowns and increased purchases by futures - cash traders. However, the overall inventory pressure is still large, and it is recommended to wait and not chase highs [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The safety situation in the DRC is complex. Although long - term demand is optimistic, short - term high prices may suppress consumption. It is recommended to trade in a range [10] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is expected to increase, and the overall demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to reduce long positions when the price rebounds to a high level [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore may become more abundant in the future, and the refined nickel market is in a surplus. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14][15] - **Tin**: Tin production increased in October, and the supply of tin concentrate is tight. The price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to trade in a range [15] - **Silver and Gold**: Supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and safe - haven demand, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver and trade gold in a range [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Yichun and the resumption of production at Ningde's mine [17][18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, supply is high, and demand is weak. It is expected to continue to trade at a low level [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Inventory is high, and the valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction in alumina production. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade sideways [21] - **Rubber**: Supply is increasing during the peak season, and demand is poor. It is expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is weakening. However, the reduction in inventory provides support, and it is expected to trade sideways [23][24] - **Methanol**: Domestic supply has recovered, and port inventory has decreased. It is expected to trade sideways [25] - **Polyolefins**: Inventory continued to decline, but demand is insufficient after the peak season. PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [25][26] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is in excess, but the cost provides support. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Although global supply - demand data is relatively loose, domestic cotton sales are fast, and yarn prices are firm. They are expected to trade with a bullish bias [27][28] - **PTA**: Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand dynamics, it is expected to rise in a sideways movement [28] - **Apples**: The trading volume in the warehouse is general, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [29] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%. Enterprises' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and prices are expected to trade weakly [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: In the short term, supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to adjust slightly. In the long term, capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on far - term contracts [30][31][32] - **Eggs**: The supply is still sufficient, but short - term supply - demand conditions have marginally improved. In the long term, capacity reduction still takes time. It is recommended to wait and see [32][33] - **Corn**: In the short term, price rebounds may be limited by increased supply. In the long term, cost support is strong, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and for grain holders to hedge on rallies [34][35] - **Soybean Meal**: The price of US soybeans is expected to trade in a narrow range. Domestic supply is sufficient in December and January. It is recommended to trade in a range [36][37] - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, the three major domestic oils lack further positive factors and are expected to trade at a high level. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions in soybean and palm oil and beware of correction risks [37][38][42]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be observed without chasing high prices [1][5][7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, tin, and gold are for range trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions when rebounding to high levels; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to be strongly volatile [1][10][13][15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary waiting and watching; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][17][19][23]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strongly volatile; PTA is expected to rise in a volatile manner; apples are expected to be strongly volatile; jujubes are expected to be weakly volatile [1][25][26][27]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended for near - term contracts, and cautious optimism for far - term contracts; eggs' price increase is limited; corn suggests selling on rallies for hedging in the short term and expecting support in the long term; soybean meal is for range trading; for oils and fats, it is advised to take profits on previous long positions of soybean and palm oil and beware of callback risks [1][28][30][32][34][35]. Core Views - The global economic situation shows some resilience, but there are still uncertainties such as the impact of US tariffs and the monetary policies of major central banks. Different sectors in the futures market are affected by various factors including supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and geopolitical situations, leading to different investment suggestions for each product [5][10][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The external environment has improved, but the market's main themes rotate quickly. Index futures are expected to trade sideways in the short term and are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In December, institutional behavior may be the core variable affecting the bond market. If the market has a conservative expectation for the bond market next year, the intensity of the rally driven by the "front - running" of allocation funds may be weaker than in previous years. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. Market participants are generally waiting and watching. Mainstream coal mines continue to cut prices for promotion, and the overall market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended for range trading [7]. - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuates narrowly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price drivers for both rise and fall are weak. It is expected to trade at a low level, and short - term trading is recommended [7]. - **Glass**: The glass futures rebounded last week due to rumors of production line shutdowns and increased purchases by futures - spot traders. However, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the demand is weak at the end of the year. It is advised to observe without chasing high prices [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The safety situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is complex, and the market is focusing on the long - term contract negotiations of copper mines. The long - term demand for copper is optimistic, but the short - term high price may suppress consumption. It is expected to trade at a high level, and range trading is recommended [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is stable, and the supply of imported ore is expected to increase in December, which may put pressure on the ore price. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The demand is gradually entering the off - season, but the macro sentiment has improved. It is recommended to reduce long positions when the price rebounds to a high level [11]. - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy in Indonesia may bring some uncertainty to the nickel ore market supply. In the medium to long term, the nickel supply is in an oversupply state. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [12][13]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production increased in October. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected that the tin price will be supported, and range trading is recommended [13]. - **Silver**: Fed officials' dovish statements have increased the market's expectation of a rate cut in December. Silver prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [14][15]. - **Gold**: Similar to silver, gold prices are expected to be supported by the expectation of a rate cut and safe - haven demand. Range trading is recommended [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and the downstream demand is strong. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of mine permits in Yichun and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jiaxiawo lithium mine [16][17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export growth rate is questionable, and the overall supply - demand is weak. It is expected to trade at a low level, and range trading is recommended [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory is high, and the profit of the alumina industry is compressed. The production and reduction of capacity have offsetting effects on caustic soda. It is recommended to wait and watch [19]. - **Styrene**: The rebound of the benzene series is mainly due to the "blending for oil" narrative. The overseas "blending for oil" logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner, and range trading is recommended [19]. - **Rubber**: The price of overseas raw materials has continued to fall, and the supply - side support has weakened. The inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is limited. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner, and range trading is recommended [20]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the industrial demand is strengthening. The inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner [21][22]. - **Methanol**: The supply has recovered, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has increased slightly, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner [23]. - **Polyolefins**: The inventory has continued to decline, mainly due to downstream replenishment at low prices. The demand is weakening after the peak season. PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to be weakly volatile [23][24]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong after the supply contraction. It is recommended to wait and watch [24]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, but the domestic cotton sales are fast recently, and the yarn price is firm, driving the cotton price to rebound. It is expected to be strongly volatile [25][26]. - **PTA**: Geopolitical factors have led to an increase in crude oil prices, and the PTA supply - demand is in a state of inventory reduction. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and the range of 4600 - 4900 should be focused on [26]. - **Apples**: The inventory of late - Fuji apples is mainly shipped on demand, and the trading atmosphere in the warehouse is average. It is expected to be strongly volatile [27]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition progress of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is about 80%. The acquisition enthusiasm of enterprises is average. It is expected to be weakly volatile [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is still high, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the long term, the production capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously optimistic about far - term contracts [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is marginally improved, but the long - term production capacity reduction still takes time. The price increase is limited [30][31]. - **Corn**: In the short term, there is still selling pressure to be digested, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for hedging. In the long term, the cost support is strong, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, limiting the upward space [32][33]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic and foreign soybean markets have different situations. The supply in the short term is relatively abundant, and range trading is recommended [34][35]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term upward momentum of domestic oils and fats is insufficient, and they are expected to trade at a high level. It is advised to take profits on previous long positions of soybean and palm oil and beware of callback risks [35][39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be on the sidelines and not chased higher [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions at high levels; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to trade strongly sideways [1][10][13][15] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17][25] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade strongly sideways; PTA is expected to rise in a sideways trend; apples are expected to trade strongly sideways; red dates are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][26][29] - Agricultural and livestock: For live pigs, near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and be cautious about chasing rallies in far - term contracts; egg prices are limited in their upward movement; corn suggests hedging on rallies; soybean meal is mainly for range operations; oils are expected to rebound from lows, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][30][35][41] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across different industries. It analyzes the fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors affecting each product, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock indices: The external environment has improved, but the market rotation is fast. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: After entering December, institutional behavior may be the core variable affecting the bond market. They are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. It is recommended for range trading [7] - Rebar: It is in a policy vacuum period. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is expected to trade sideways at low levels, mainly for short - term trading [7] - Glass: Although there are rumors of production line shutdowns causing a rebound in the futures market, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the year - end demand is weak. It is not advisable to chase higher in the near - term contracts [9] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) is complex. The long - term demand is optimistic, but the short - term high prices may suppress consumption. It is recommended for range short - term trading [10] - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment has improved, and it may continue to rebound in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels [11] - Nickel: The supply is expected to be loose in the long term. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [13] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply recovery and downstream demand improvement, and for range trading [13] - Gold and silver: Supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and safe - haven demand, gold is for range trading, and silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions [15] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected to trade strongly sideways. Pay attention to the progress of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of Ningde Jiaxiawo lithium mine [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading, and pay attention to policies and cost - side disturbances [17] - Caustic soda: The valuation is suppressed by the expectation of alumina production cuts. It is recommended to wait and watch [19] - Styrene: The overseas blending logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade sideways, and pay attention to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [19] - Rubber: The market is bearish, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended for range trading [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways [22] - Methanol: The supply in the inland has recovered, and the port inventory has decreased. It is recommended for range trading [24] - Polyolefins: The inventory is decreasing, but the demand is insufficient after the peak season. PE is expected to trade sideways in the range, and PP is expected to trade weakly sideways [25] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and watch [25] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Although the global supply - demand data is loose, the recent domestic cotton sales are fast, and the yarn price is firm, so they are expected to trade strongly sideways [26] - PTA: Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to rise in a sideways trend, with a focus on the range of 4600 - 4900 [27] - Apples: The inventory is mainly sold as needed, and the price is expected to trade strongly sideways [28] - Red dates: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%, and the price is expected to trade weakly sideways [29] Agricultural and Livestock - Live pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the long term, the capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. The near - term contracts are for short - selling on rallies, and be cautious about chasing rallies in the far - term contracts [30][31] - Eggs: In the short term, the supply - demand is marginally improved, and the price has support. In the long term, the capacity reduction takes time. The 01 contract has a large premium over the spot, and the price increase is limited [31][32] - Corn: In the short term, there is still selling pressure, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies. In the long term, the cost support is strong, but the supply - demand is relatively loose, and the upward space is limited [33][34] - Soybean meal: It is mainly for range operations, and spot enterprises can fix the basis for December - January [35][36] - Oils: In the short term, the trends of different oils are differentiated. In the long term, they are expected to trade in a wide range. Be cautious about chasing rallies in soybean and palm oils, and pay attention to Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data and the December MPOB report [37][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro - Finance - Index: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Hold off from chasing high prices, wait and see [1][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Short - term range trading [1][10] - Aluminum: Reduce long positions when it rebounds to a high level [1][11] - Nickel: Wait and see or short on rallies [1][13] - Tin: Range trading [1][14] - Gold: Range trading [1][16] - Silver: Hold long positions, be cautious about new positions [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish - leaning range - bound [1][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [1][18] - Caustic soda: Wait and see for now [1][20] - Soda ash: Wait and see for now [1][25] - Styrene: Range trading [1][20] - Rubber: Range trading [1][21] - Urea: Range trading [1][22] - Methanol: Range trading [1][24] - Polyolefins: Bearish - leaning range - bound [1][24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [1][28] - PTA: Range - bound [1][28] - Apples: Bullish - leaning range - bound [1][29] - Jujubes: Bearish - leaning range - bound [1][30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Near - term contracts may adjust weakly at low levels, be cautious about chasing high prices in far - term contracts [1][32] - Eggs: Limited upside [1][33] - Corn: Hedge on rallies, be cautious about chasing high prices in the short - term; expect support in the long - term, but limited upside [1][35] - Soybean meal: Range trading [1][37] - Oils: Rebound from lows, adopt a buy - on - dips strategy [1][42] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment strategies for various futures products in different sectors. It analyzes the market situation of each product based on factors such as supply and demand, macro - economic data, and geopolitical events. For most products, it suggests range trading or a wait - and - see approach, while for some, it gives clear long or short signals according to their specific fundamentals [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - **Index**: A - shares showed a volatile upward trend on Monday. The market is affected by factors such as PMI data, policy discussions, and international negotiations. The index may be range - bound in the short - term but is optimistic in the long - term [5]. - **Treasury bonds**: Treasury futures mostly rose. The market may focus on the actual scale of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations at the end of the month. With weak profit - making effects in the bond market, the downward space for yields is limited [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand, and most market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - **Rebar**: The price of rebar futures was strong on Monday. In the short - term, there is no significant supply - demand contradiction, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [7]. - **Glass**: Although the futures price has rebounded due to production line shutdown rumors, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the year - end demand is weak. It is not advisable to chase high prices for near - term contracts [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation in Congo (Kinshasa) needs attention. The market consumption has improved, and the social inventory has decreased. The long - term demand for copper is optimistic, but in the short - term, it is necessary to beware of the impact of high prices on consumption and policy changes [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is stable, and the supply of imported ore is expected to increase. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has changed. The downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season. It is recommended to reduce long positions when the price rebounds to a high level [11]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may be loose in the future. The refined nickel market is in a surplus, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. The inventory is at a medium level. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply recovery and downstream demand [14]. - **Silver**: Fed officials' dovish remarks have increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, and silver prices have rebounded. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [16]. - **Gold**: Similar to silver, the gold price has rebounded due to interest rate cut expectations and safe - haven demand. Range trading is recommended [16]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The supply is in a tight balance, and the downstream demand is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of mines in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jixiawo lithium mine [18]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to policy and cost changes [18]. - **Caustic soda**: The alumina industry may affect the demand for caustic soda. The supply is high in winter. The valuation is suppressed by the expectation of alumina production cuts [20]. - **Styrene**: The recent rebound is due to the "blending oil" narrative, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [20]. - **Rubber**: The overseas raw material price has fallen, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The demand for tires is limited. The rubber price may continue to decline without strong positive factors [21]. - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand has weakened, and the industrial demand has strengthened. The inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be range - bound [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply has recovered, the demand for methanol - to - olefins has increased slightly, and the traditional demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased [24]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply has changed, the demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased. The PE contract is expected to oscillate within a range, and the PP contract is expected to be bearish - leaning [24]. - **Soda ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand data is loose, but the strong yarn price has driven the cotton price to rebound [28]. - **PTA**: The international oil price has fallen, the PTA price has decreased, and the supply - demand situation is such that the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand increase is not significant. In the long - term, the production capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. It is recommended to short near - term contracts on rallies and be cautious about far - term contracts [32]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures price is range - bound. In the medium - term, the supply - demand situation is improving marginally. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [33]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price has rebounded, but there is still selling pressure. In the long - term, the demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [35]. - **Soybean meal**: The domestic and international soybean prices have fallen. It is recommended to conduct range trading and for spot enterprises to price the basis from November to January on dips [37]. - **Oils**: The short - term performance of oils is under pressure, but there is support in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to relevant data and reports [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the development of non - ferrous related industries will prioritize high - quality development, resolve supply - side involution, reduce ineffective supply, and control smelting - end production capacity. Copper, aluminum and other non - ferrous metals and new energy materials will continue to benefit from the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries and the booming development of emerging and future industries. The industrial pattern of non - ferrous and new energy varieties will be further improved and optimized, and price trends will be more boosted by the supply and demand sides [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Importance of the 15th Five - Year Plan Period" The 15th Five - Year Plan period is crucial for basically realizing socialist modernization, serving as a connecting link between the past and the future. It is necessary to consolidate advantages, break through bottlenecks, and strengthen weak points. Adhering to high - quality development is particularly important for the non - ferrous metal industry pattern [6]. 3.2 "Main Goals and Industrial System Planning of the 15th Five - Year Plan" - **Main Goals**: The main goals include significant achievements in high - quality development, a substantial increase in the level of scientific and technological self - reliance, new breakthroughs in further comprehensive deep - seated reforms, a notable improvement in social civilization, continuous improvement in people's living standards, new major progress in building a beautiful China, and a more solid national security barrier. High - quality development is prioritized, and the non - ferrous metal industry will focus on high - quality development, addressing supply - side issues and strengthening effective demand. The goal of a substantial increase in scientific and technological self - reliance highlights the importance of science and technology, which will drive the high - quality development of the non - ferrous new energy industry [8][11][12]. - **Industrial System Planning Clues for Non - Ferrous Metals**: In the industrial system planning, traditional industries such as mining and metallurgy related to non - ferrous metals will continue supply - side reforms. Emerging and future industries, such as new energy and quantum technology, will drive the demand for non - ferrous and new energy materials. Non - ferrous metals and new energy materials will benefit from the development of both traditional and emerging/future industries [14][15][16]. 3.3 "Prospects for Non - Ferrous Metal Terminal Industries in the 15th Five - Year Plan" - **Wind Power, Photovoltaic and Grid Energy Storage**: The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to accelerate the construction of a new energy system. The scale of new energy installations is expected to reach a new high, and the demand for energy storage and grid investment will increase to support the consumption and stable operation of new energy [17][20]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes green development. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to further increase. Although the growth rate may decline, new energy vehicles will remain an important driver of the domestic economy [21][23]. - **AI Industry**: The 15th Five - Year Plan has higher requirements for scientific and technological self - reliance. The development of the AI industry will drive the growth of semiconductor chips and increase the demand for energy storage in AI data centers, becoming a new growth engine for non - ferrous and new energy materials [24].

长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-12-01 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 02 油脂：上方压力仍存，期价反弹受限 豆粕：成本叠加去库支撑，价格偏强运行 目 录 2500 3500 4500 5500 2022-11-23 2022-12-30 2023-02-13 2023-03-22 2023-04-28 2023-06-08 2023-07-18 2023-08-24 2023-10-08 2023-11-14 2023-12-21 2024-01-30 2024-03-13 2024-04-22 2024-05-30 2024-07-09 2024-08-15 2024-09-24 2024-11-05 2024-12-12 2025-01-21 2025-03-05 2025-04-14 2025-05-23 2025-07-04 2025-07-29 2025-09-18 豆粕现货价格走势 天津 日照 连云港 2200 2700 3200 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the pig industry, supply pressure remains high, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate narrowly, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices before the Spring Festival and in the first half of next year are not optimistic, while prices in the second half of next year are expected to be relatively strong but with caution [5][54]. - For the egg industry, the marginal improvement of supply - demand looseness is observed, and attention should be paid to spot price guidance. In the short - term, egg prices have support at the bottom, while in the medium - to - long - term, capacity clearance still takes time [6][80]. - For the corn industry, the selling pressure needs to be digested, and caution is needed when chasing high prices on the futures market. In the short - term, there is still selling pressure to release, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year, which limits the upside space [7][105]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the national spot price was 11.13 yuan/kg, down 0.41 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 11.24 yuan/kg, down 0.33 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2501 was 11465 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 01 contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan/ton from last week [5][12][54]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The average slaughter weight increased by 0.41 kg to 129.22 kg; the fat - standard price difference decreased by 0.10 yuan to 0.54 yuan; the proportion of pigs below 90 kg increased by 0.35% to 4.83%, and the proportion of pigs above 150 kg increased by 0.94% to 6.32% [13]. - Demand - related indicators: The weekly average daily slaughter rate increased by 1.47% to 35.41%; the weekly average daily slaughter volume increased by 6066 heads to 146566 heads; the fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises increased by 0.18% to 85.60%; the slaughter processing profit increased by 1.30 yuan/head to 7.2 yuan/head [13]. - Inventory - related indicators: The frozen - product inventory rate decreased by 0.07% to 20.15%; the pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.13 to 5.37 [13]. - Cost - related indicators: The price of 7 - kg weaned piglets increased by 5.95 yuan/head to 215.95 yuan/head; the price of 15 - kg piglets decreased by 1 yuan/head to 299 yuan/head; the price of binary breeding sows remained stable at 1548 yuan/head; the price of pig feed increased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 2.62 yuan/kg [13]. - Profit - related indicators: The self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased by 59.74 yuan/head to - 141.09 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 84.03 yuan/head to - 248.95 yuan/head [13]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows decreased. In October, the official sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%, still 2.31% higher than the normal inventory of 39 million heads [17]. - The production performance improved. In October, the ratio of binary to ternary breeding sows was 95%:5%, the farrowing rate of inseminated sows was 79.7%, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.32 [17]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply pressure still exists, and the increase in demand is not obvious. Pig prices will fluctuate narrowly. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will remain high before the first half of next year, and prices will be under pressure. In the second half of next year, prices are expected to be relatively strong, but caution is needed [5][54]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month and off - season contracts on rallies; be cautiously bullish on far - month contracts [5][54]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main egg contract 2601 was 3293 yuan/500 kg, up 109 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 653 yuan/500 kg, 49 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday [6][60][80]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The national weekly utilization rate of breeding eggs for laying hens remained unchanged at 57.00%; the average price of laying - hen chicks remained stable at 2.70 yuan/head; the average price of culled hens decreased by 0.08 yuan/jin to 3.80 yuan/jin; the culled - hen slaughter volume increased by 1760000 heads to 21.97 million heads; the age of culled hens decreased by 3 days to 489 days [61]. - Demand - related indicators: The egg shipment volume increased by 115.61 tons to 6216.77 tons; the sales volume in the sample sales areas decreased by 37 tons to 7435 tons [61]. - Inventory - related indicators: The production - link inventory decreased by 0.1 - 0.32 days, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 0.05 - 0.16 days [61]. - Profit - related indicators: The expected profit of laying - hen farming decreased by 4.29 yuan/head to - 27.35 yuan/head; the profit per jin of eggs decreased by 0.01 yuan/jin to - 0.27 yuan/jin [61]. 3.2.3 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and egg prices have support at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, capacity clearance still takes time [6][80]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing long positions on the 01 contract; breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies; be cautiously optimistic about the medium - term and still cautious about the long - term [6][80]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2275 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main corn contract 2601 was 2244 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 31 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton stronger than last Friday [7][86][105]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related indicators: The national grain - selling progress was 30%, 3 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the grain - selling progress in North China was 28%, 1 percentage point faster than the same period last year; the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, 4 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the arrival volume at northern ports increased by 23.1 tons to 73 tons; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 251 vehicles to 804 vehicles [87][88][105]. - Demand - related indicators: The deep - processing enterprise operating rate increased by 0.49% to 61.38%; the corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises increased by 3.84 tons to 129.07 tons; the shipping volume from northern ports increased by 34.4 tons to 74.4 tons [87]. - Inventory - related indicators: The northern - port corn inventory increased by 6 tons to 140 tons, and the southern - port corn inventory decreased by 2.9 tons to 59.9 tons; the corn inventory days of sample feed enterprises increased by 1.6 days to 27.83 days; the corn inventory of sample deep - processing enterprises decreased by 2.9 tons to 269.8 tons [87]. - Profit - related indicators: The pig - farming profit decreased by 12.09 yuan to - 147.99 yuan; the laying - hen farming profit decreased by 4.29 yuan to - 27.35 yuan; the Shandong corn - starch processing profit decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 19 yuan/ton; the theoretical import profit of US corn from the Gulf increased by 103.08 yuan/ton to 315.37 yuan/ton [87]. 3.3.3 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, there is still selling pressure to release. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year, which limits the upside space [7][105]. - Strategy: Be cautious about chasing high prices on the futures market; grain - holding entities can hedge on rallies; the medium - to - long - term demand will gradually recover, but the upside is limited [7][105].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply and demand of lithium carbonate maintain a tight balance, with strong downstream demand. It is expected that subsequent lithium salt imports from South America will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good, and the cathode production schedule in November is expected to increase by 2% month - on - month, following a 4% month - on - month increase in October. The risk of mining licenses in Yichun persists, and lithium extraction from ore continues to increase production under the background of profit restoration, leading to an upward shift in the cost center. The expectation of the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine within the year has failed, and the downstream production schedule exceeds expectations. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. Downstream enterprises are actively purchasing lithium carbonate, and the destocking continues. However, the inventory of traders is accumulating. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views 3.1.1. Supply and Demand Conditions - **Supply**: Last week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 440 tons to 23,875 tons, and the output in November increased by 3% month - on - month to 103,740 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has not resumed production, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditures for the 25th fiscal year. In October 2025, China imported 652,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3%. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium concentrate imported from Australia in October decreased by 15% month - on - month, imports from Zimbabwe were 150,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 41%, and imports from Nigeria were 120,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month. In October, 23,881 tons of lithium carbonate were imported, a month - on - month increase of 21.9%, with 14,800 tons from Chile, accounting for 62%. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure. [5] - **Demand**: The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, with the production schedule of large battery cell factories increasing by 8% in September. In October, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 170.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 50.5%. The total export of power and other batteries was 28.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 33.5%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 166.0 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 50.8%. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of the sales volume of the new energy vehicle market in China. [6] - **Inventory**: This week, the lithium carbonate inventory showed a destocking state. The factory inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 680 tons, the market inventory increased by 20,778 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 21,407 tons. [6] 3.1.2. Strategy Suggestions - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo Mine remains shut down. The domestic lithium carbonate output in November increased by 3% month - on - month. In October, the import of lithium concentrate was 652,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3%. The total import of lithium carbonate in October was about 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 3%. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine. Downstream enterprises are actively purchasing lithium carbonate, and the destocking continues, but the inventory of traders is accumulating. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate. [7] 3.2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot tax - inclusive average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly factory inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production proportion of lithium carbonate from different raw materials in October 2024, difference between domestic power battery production and loading volume, average production cost of lithium carbonate, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate, monthly production of ternary materials, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium carbonate, and market price of ternary material 8 - series NCA type. However, specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the data trends and time periods are shown in the charts. [9][10][12]