1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate. It takes into account factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and price trends to provide investment suggestions for each metal [2][3]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Trend**: This week, copper prices fell from high levels but remained at historical highs, with weakening upward momentum. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation under the influence of macro and fundamental factors, with the main contract of Shanghai copper likely to operate in the range of 84,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Macro Factors**: Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve have cooled the expectation of a December interest rate cut. The US government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, leading to cautious market sentiment. The strengthening of the US dollar has also suppressed copper prices [2]. - **Fundamental Factors**: Overseas mine restarts are slow, and the tight supply of copper concentrates has not significantly improved. Domestic electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month. High copper prices have curbed consumption, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Aluminum prices are oscillating upward at a high level, while alumina prices are oscillating at a low level. The prices of aluminum alloys are also oscillating upward at a high level [2]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The supply of domestic bauxite is expected to improve, while the price of bauxite in Guinea has decreased. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has also risen. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has decreased slightly. The demand for aluminum downstream has weakened, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased slightly [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: For alumina, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and sold out - of - the - money put options. For Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloys, it is recommended to strengthen observation [2]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: Last week, zinc prices continued to rise. In general, the supply - side support is relatively strong due to the continuous decline in processing fees, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the upward space of Shanghai zinc. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc ores have continued to decline, and the smelting profit has decreased. The market expects a reduction in refined zinc production. Terminal consumption is weak overall, and downstream enterprises maintain rigid - demand procurement [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. Lead - **Price Trend**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,420 yuan/ton, showing a trend of rising and then falling. In the short term, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation [2]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The LME and COMEX lead inventories have decreased, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory has increased. The demand for lead smelting remains strong, but the high price of primary lead has reduced the stocking willingness of downstream enterprises and increased the demand for recycled lead [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 17,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton [2]. Nickel - **Price Trend**: Last week, Shanghai nickel oscillated and declined. Nickel remains in a surplus situation, and the price is expected to oscillate downward within the range of 117,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines continues, and miners' sentiment to hold up prices persists. The supply of refined nickel is in surplus, and the inventory is increasing. The price of nickel iron is under pressure to oscillate, and the price of stainless steel is weak [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices [3]. Tin - **Price Trend**: Overseas supply is tight, and prices continue to oscillate. It is expected that tin prices will be supported, and it is recommended to conduct range trading within the range of 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai tin 12 - contract [3]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: In October, domestic refined tin production decreased year - on - year. The import of tin concentrates decreased in September. The consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover, but the consumption of consumer electronics and photovoltaics is weak [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to conduct range trading and continuously monitor the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon prices are oscillating and adjusting, and the overall idea is to conduct range trading or wait and see. The price of polysilicon is oscillating widely at a high level [3]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The weekly output of industrial silicon has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The weekly output of polysilicon has decreased, and the market expects the establishment of a state - reserve platform. The production reduction of industrial silicon is stronger than that of polysilicon in reality, but the expectation of polysilicon production reduction still exists [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The overall idea is to conduct band trading, going long on polysilicon (PS) and short on industrial silicon (SI) [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate is oscillating widely overall, showing a trend of rising and then falling. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to build long positions at low prices [3]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The supply and demand in the domestic market are in a tight balance. The downstream demand is strong, and the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. The production of lithium carbonate in October increased month - on - month, and the import of lithium concentrates increased in September [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: It is recommended to build long positions at low prices and continuously monitor the progress of mining permits in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 4. Macro - economic Data - **China**: China's October RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.6, remaining above the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, indicating continuous improvement in manufacturing prosperity, but the growth rate has slowed down. In October, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year [13][14]. - **US**: The US October ISM manufacturing index was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1, indicating that the US manufacturing industry continued to contract. The US Supreme Court held a public hearing on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" [16][18]. - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI final value was 50, indicating that the manufacturing industry was in a state of stagnation [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The continued shutdown of the US government, negative private - sector employment, and the US Supreme Court's query on the legality of Trump's full - scale tariffs have led to the continued oscillation of precious metal prices. There is a divergence in the market regarding whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December, and the expected end - point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is evident, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Although Powell believes that changing economic risks provide sufficient reasons for the Fed to cut interest rates, Fed officials have expressed hawkish views, so a further interest rate cut in the December monetary policy meeting is not certain. With the US economic data trending weaker and market concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported in the medium - term, while remaining in an adjustment state in the short - term [11]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - Due to the continued shutdown of the US government, negative private - sector employment, and the US Supreme Court's query on the legality of Trump's full - scale tariffs, the price of US gold continued to oscillate. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4008 per ounce, a weekly decline of 0.1%. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level of $4100 and the lower support level of $3950 [6]. - The price of US silver also oscillated under the same factors. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 0.1%, closing at $48.23 per ounce. Attention should be paid to the lower support level of $47 and the upper resistance level of $49.5 [9]. 02. Weekly View - The factors mentioned above cause precious metal prices to continue oscillating. Market has different views on the December interest - rate cut, and the expected end - point of this round of cuts is lowered. Trump affects the Fed's independence, and US employment slows down. Powell sees reasons for rate cuts, but Fed officials' hawkish views make a December rate cut uncertain. With weak US economic data and market concerns, precious metal prices are expected to be supported in the medium - term and adjust in the short - term [11]. - Gold: This week, COMEX inventory decreased by 13,641.72 kg to 1,173,518.12 kg, while SHFE inventory increased by 1800 kg to 89,616 kg. - Silver: This week, COMEX inventory decreased by 72,246.03 kg to 14,933,286.22 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 42,492 kg to 623,052 kg. - This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week; the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week. - Strategy suggestion: Trade cautiously and within a range. Refer to the operating range of 890 - 945 for the SHFE gold December contract and 10800 - 11700 for the SHFE silver December contract [13]. 03. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), gold - silver ratio, Fed balance sheet size and its weekly change, and WTI crude oil futures price trend, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [15][17][20][21][23][24]. 04. Important Economic Data of the Week - US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. - US October ADP employment change was 42,000, higher than the expected 25,000 and the previous value of - 29,000 [27]. 05. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Private data shows that US employment decreased in October due to government and retail sectors, and the number of announced layoffs increased because of corporate cost - cutting and AI adoption. In October, 9100 jobs were lost, with 22,200 lost in the government sector. - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that high inflation is not conducive to the Fed's further interest - rate cuts, and she is worried that current monetary policy may not be well - prepared to deal with inflation. - The US October ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, the highest since February, driven by strong new orders. However, weak employment indicates a sluggish labor market under the uncertain economic background of tariffs. The ADP National Employment Report shows that employment rebounded by 42,000 in October after a loss of 29,000 in September [28]. 06. Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory is 1,173,518.12 kg, a decrease of 13,641.72 kg from last week; SHFE inventory is 89,616 kg, an increase of 1800 kg from last week. - Silver: COMEX inventory is 14,933,286.22 kg, a decrease of 72,246.03 kg from last week; SHFE inventory is 623,052 kg, a decrease of 42,492 kg from last week [13][33]. 07. Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week; the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13][37]. 08. Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday (November 13) at 21:30, the US October CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released [39].

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: November 10, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply side is affected by the shutdown of Ningde Jianxiawo Mine for 3 months and the mine - right transfer re - review notices in Yichun and Qinghai. Although the domestic carbonate lithium production in October increased by 10% month - on - month and the imported lithium concentrate in September was 711,000 tons, a 14.7% month - on - month increase, the import of carbonate lithium in September decreased by 10.3% month - on - month. The cost of some manufacturers using imported lithium ore is upside - down, while self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises have some profit support [5][6]. - The demand side is strong. In October, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month. In September, the production of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. The production, export, and sales of power and other batteries all showed significant growth. The new energy vehicle market is expected to continue to grow rapidly due to policies. The inventory of carbonate lithium is in a destocking state this week [6]. - The domestic supply and demand of carbonate lithium remain in a tight balance. It is expected that the subsequent import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. With the strong demand in the energy storage terminal, the production of ore - extracted lithium continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery factories increases, and inventory is transferred downstream. The price of carbonate lithium is expected to be supported. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the progress of Yichun mine certificates and the resumption of production of Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views Supply - Last week, the weekly output of carbonate lithium increased by 145 tons to 23,465 tons, and the production in October increased by 10% month - on - month to 105,040 tons. Ningde Jianxiawo Mine is shut down for 3 months, and enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai received mine - right transfer re - review notices. In the third quarter, Australian mines controlled costs, and the space for further cost reduction is extremely limited, with most mainstream Australian mines reducing capital expenditure for fiscal year 2025 [5]. - In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, that from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% month - on - month, that from Nigeria increased by 14.4% month - on - month, and that from South Africa increased by 109,000 tons. The import of carbonate lithium in September was 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease, with 11,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 55% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost upside - down for some carbonate lithium manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises have some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - In October, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month, and in September, the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% month - on - month increase and a 35.4% year - on - year increase. The total export was 26.7 GWh, an 18.2% month - on - month increase and a 28.3% year - on - year increase. The sales volume was 146.5 GWh, a 9.0% month - on - month increase and a 42.2% year - on - year increase. Policies are expected to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market [6]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium showed a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 1,075 tons, market inventory decreasing by 1,273 tons, and futures inventory decreasing by 289 tons [6]. Strategy Recommendations - Considering the supply side, with the ongoing shutdown of Ningde Jianxiawo Mine, the domestic production of carbonate lithium in October increased by 10% month - on - month, and the import of lithium concentrate in September increased by 14.7% month - on - month, while the import of carbonate lithium decreased by about 10% month - on - month but increased by 20% year - on - year. The downstream demand is strong, and the domestic supply and demand remain in a tight balance. It is expected that the subsequent import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply [6]. - From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. In September, the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month, and the production schedule of cathode materials in October is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month. With profit restoration, the production of ore - extracted lithium continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery factories increases, and inventory is transferred downstream. The price of carbonate lithium is expected to be supported. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the progress of Yichun mine certificates and the resumption of production of Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [6]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and factory monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium, average price of imported lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of different types of batteries and cathode materials, average production cost of carbonate lithium, import volume of carbonate lithium and lithium spodumene, etc. However, specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the time series and data ranges of these data are shown [8][10][11][15][17][20][21][23][26][27][30][34][36][38][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The pig market has high supply pressure in the short - term, with prices having limited upward movement. In the long - term, prices in the first half of next year are under pressure, while those in the second half are relatively strong due to expected capacity reduction [4][48]. - The egg market shows a marginal improvement in the short - term supply - demand situation, but the ample supply restricts price increases. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease as the inventory growth rate slows down [5][69]. - The corn market is in a phase of shock bottom - building during the new crop listing period. Short - term prices are expected to be weak, while in the long - term, there is strong cost support [6][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 7, the national spot price was 11.82 yuan/kg, down 0.67 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.04 yuan/kg, down 0.51 yuan/kg. The futures price of Live Pig 2501 closed at 11,865 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of the 01 contract was 175 yuan/ton, down 560 yuan/ton from last week [4][11][48]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The average weekly slaughter weight was 128.3 kg, up 0.61 kg from last week. The proportion of small and large pigs in the weekly slaughter increased. The fat - standard price difference was 0.68 yuan, down 0.06 yuan from last week. The frozen product inventory rate was 20.03%, up 0.04% from last week [4][12][48]. - Demand - related data: The average daily weekly slaughter rate was 33.47%, down 1.36% from last week. The average daily weekly slaughter volume was 138,532 heads, down 5,604 heads from last week. The fresh - sales rate was 86.27%, up 0.23% from last week [4][12][48]. - Cost - related data: The national average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 202.62 yuan/head, up 19.76 yuan/head from last week. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 34.91 yuan/head, down 10.21 yuan/head from last week. The profit from purchasing piglets was - 116.92 yuan/head, up 12.58 yuan/head from last week [4][12][48]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows decreased slowly. In September 2025, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, down 0.07% month - on - month and 0.66% year - on - year. My Agri's sample in October showed an increase, while Yongyi's sample showed a decrease [20][48]. - The production performance improved. In October, the ratio of binary to ternary breeding sows was 95%:5%. The farrowing rate of inseminated sows was 79.7%, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.32 [20]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. Pay attention to the rhythm of secondary fattening and group enterprise slaughter. In the long - term, prices in the first half of next year are under pressure, while those in the second half are relatively strong. Hold existing short positions in contracts 01, 03, and 05, and continue to pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage. Be cautious about bottom - fishing in contracts 07 and 09 [4][48]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 7, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. The futures price of Egg 2512 closed at 3,219 yuan/500 kg, up 73 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 419 yuan/500 kg, weakening by 3 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][54][69]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The national weekly utilization rate of egg - laying hen hatching eggs was 57%. The average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.80 yuan/chick. The average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from last week [5][55][69]. - Demand - related data: The egg shipment volume was 6,300.06 tons, up 252.77 tons week - on - week. The sales volume in the sample sales areas was 7,300 tons, down 358 tons week - on - week [5][55][69]. - Profit - related data: The expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 24.44 yuan/hen, up 1.66 yuan/hen from last week. The profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last week [5][55][69]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of laying hens decreased slightly in October 2025, with 1.359 billion hens in production, down 0.09 billion month - on - month and up 0.72 billion year - on - year [5][69]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has a marginal improvement, and egg prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease. Short the main 12 - contract lightly when the price is high, and expect the 01 - contract to oscillate within the range of 3,250 - 3,450 [5][69]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 7, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,160 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of Corn 2601 closed at 2,149 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 11 yuan/ton, strengthening by 11 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][73][88]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The inventory of old - crop corn among traders in production and sales areas was low. The new - crop supply in the Northeast was increasing. In September, corn imports were 60,000 tons, up 50% month - on - month and down 80.6% year - on - year [6][75][88]. - Demand - related data: The feed demand increased due to the growth of pig and poultry inventories, but the high price difference between corn and wheat led to wheat replacing corn in feed use. The deep - processing industry's profit turned positive, but the capacity utilization rate was still low [6][75][88]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The national grain - selling progress was 22% as of November 7, 3% faster than the same period last year. The progress in North China was 20%, 1% faster than the same period last year, and that in Northeast China was 18%, 3% faster than the same period last year [6][76][88]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, corn prices will be under pressure due to the concentrated listing of new crops. In the long - term, there is strong cost support. The main 01 - contract will oscillate within the range of 2,050 - 2,170 [6][88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The upward pressure on polyolefins is relatively large, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within the range, with attention to the 6800 support level. The PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, with attention to the 6500 support level. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - There are still supply - demand contradictions in plastics, and it is expected to operate in an oscillating manner [9]. - The trend pressure on PP is relatively large, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50]. Summary by Directory Plastic 1. Weekly Market Review - On November 7, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6802 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41%. The average price of LDPE was 9216.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07%. The average price of HDPE was 7550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7335.88 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.16%. The LLDPE South China basis was 533.88 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.13%. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton (- 4) [8][11]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Month - to - Month Spread**: On November 7, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton (- 4), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 46 yuan/ton (+7), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 125 yuan/ton (- 3) [18]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline on November 7, 2025 [19][20]. - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.84 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.04 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 63.70 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.88 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1110 yuan/ton (+30) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous month. The profit of coal - based PE was 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from the previous month [27]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 82.59%, an increase of 1.72 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 66.07 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The maintenance loss this week was 9.30 tons, a decrease of 1.91 tons from the previous week [32]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Many enterprises have completed production or are in the process of production, and some are planned to be put into production in December 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 tons [35]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 49.96%, an increase of 0.43% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 50.78%, a decrease of 0.52% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 32.67%, a decrease of 0.50% from the previous weekend [38]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 33.4%, with a difference of 1.9% from the annual average level. The data of low - pressure film is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 8.2%, with a difference of 1.6% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 52.74 tons, a decrease of 0.74 tons from the end of last month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38% [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,668 lots, a decrease of 37 lots from the previous week [47]. PP 1. Weekly Market Review - On November 7, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% [52]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of PP granules, PP powder, and other products showed different degrees of changes on November 7, 2025 [55]. - **Basis**: On November 7, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6706.67 yuan/ton (- 16.66). The PP basis was 243 yuan/ton (+109), and the basis widened. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton (- 26), and the month - to - month spread narrowed [57]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: On November 7, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton (- 26), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (- 22), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 151 yuan/ton (+48) [63]. - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.84 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.04 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 63.70 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.88 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1110 yuan/ton (+30) [68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 559.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 47.09 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was - 405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135.80 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 77.78%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 79.65 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. The weekly output of PP powder was 7.66 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06% [77]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' production lines are in a state of shutdown or maintenance [80]. - **Demand**: This week, the average operating rate of downstream industries was 53.14% (+0.52). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.46% (+0.26%), the operating rate of BOPP was 62.45% (+0.88%), the operating rate of injection molding was 59.13% (+0.07%), and the operating rate of pipes was 37.30% (+0.50%) [82]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 347.69 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.66 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was - 27.46 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.86 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week [87]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 59.99 tons (+0.81%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 5.55% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 7.02% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 1.07% month - on - month [90]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,629 lots, an increase of 60 lots from the previous week [103].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The steel mills are suffering losses and reducing production, and the futures market is experiencing a negative feedback loop [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Plate Performance Comparison - Last week, the black plate declined collectively, with iron ore leading the decline, dropping about 5% week-on-week. The strength relationship among varieties was coke > coking coal > hot-rolled coil > rebar > iron ore [4] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The performance of different futures was differentiated, with black and energy-chemical futures being relatively weak [8] 03 Spot Prices - Coking coal and coke prices rose, while steel and iron ore prices fell [15] 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability of steel mills decreased significantly, and the valuation of rebar futures was relatively low [16] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel production and demand decreased, and the inventory depletion slowed down [18] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals increased significantly month-on-month, and port inventories rebounded [27] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production decreased slightly, and inventories shifted downstream [33] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly, and inventories were depleted again [35] 09 Variety Spreads - The futures profit continued to decline, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar remained stable [37] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - On November 3, the Ministry of Finance established a new Debt Management Department. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the United States. The "China's Actions for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" white paper was released. Various economic data such as trade, employment, and reserves were announced, and OPEC+ made production adjustment decisions [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic aluminum market is in a transition from peak season to off - season. The supply and demand situation is complex, with changes in production capacity, consumption, and inventory. The recent sharp rise in aluminum stocks and the influx of funds into the Shanghai Aluminum market are based on expectations of supply shortages in the US, but there are risks of over - trading. Short - term observation is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week View - **Fundamental Analysis**: Domestic bauxite supply in Shanxi and Henan is expected to improve, while the price of Guinea bauxite has declined. Alumina production capacity has increased slightly, and inventory has risen. Electrolytic aluminum production capacity has decreased slightly, with some reduction due to technical upgrades and environmental protection. Domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates have declined, and aluminum ingot inventory has increased slightly. In the recycled casting aluminum alloy sector, the production of leading enterprises has not been affected for the time being [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and sold out - of - the - money put options. For Shanghai Aluminum and casting aluminum alloy, it is recommended to strengthen observation [5]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, but no specific analysis is provided [7][8]. 3.3. Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are stable, and the supply of domestic ore is expected to improve. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bauxite has decreased by $1 per dry ton to $71.5 per dry ton. The end of the rainy season in Guinea and the weakening of alumina prices have put downward pressure on bauxite prices [11]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of alumina remained unchanged week - on - week at 11,462 million tons, the operating capacity increased by 100,000 tons to 9,685 million tons, and the operating rate was 84.5%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina decreased by 33.7 yuan/ton to 2,837.5 yuan/ton. National alumina inventory increased by 88,000 tons to 4.218 million tons. Some enterprises in the north have reduced production due to heavy pollution weather, while some have slightly increased production after stable operation [14]. 3.5. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on alumina basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume, but no specific analysis is provided [16][17][18][19]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged week - on - week at 4.5232 million tons, and the operating capacity decreased by 10,000 tons to 4.4424 million tons. Some enterprises have reduced production for technical upgrades and environmental protection reasons, while new production capacity is expected to be put into operation [23]. 3.7. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on aluminum import profit, Shanghai Aluminum forward curve, aluminum rod processing fee, and thermal coal price, but no specific analysis is provided [25][26][27]. 3.8. Inventory - The report presents data on aluminum rod social inventory, aluminum ingot social inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [29][30][31][32]. 3.9. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 59.1% week - on - week. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight and the price is high. The demand from the automotive end has resilience, but the high aluminum price has led to a decline in downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The production of leading enterprises has not been affected for the time being [37]. 3.10. Important High - Frequency Data of Casting Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the price of aluminum profiles, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 aluminum, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots, but no specific analysis is provided [39][40][41][42][43]. 3.11. Downstream Operating Rate (First Part) - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 61.6% week - on - week. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 0.9% to 52.6%, with different performance in industrial and construction profiles. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% to 66%, affected by high aluminum prices and the transition to the off - season [49]. 3.12. Downstream Operating Rate (Second Part) - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 61.4% week - on - week, mainly due to heavy pollution weather control in some areas of Henan and slow order progress. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.2% to 59.4%, with stable production and increased downstream demand [52].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Title: Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Sentiment Digested, Copper Prices Corrected at High Levels [1] - Date: November 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1. Last Week's Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper prices corrected at high levels, closing at 85,940 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.46%. After the release of positive factors such as the suspension of Sino-US tariff consultations and the Fed's expected interest rate cut, copper prices gave back some gains. In the long - term, the copper price center is supported by the continuous shortage of copper mines and the expected resumption of Grasberg copper mine next year. Domestic electrolytic copper production may remain low due to anti - involution expectations in copper smelting and anode copper supply. High copper prices suppress downstream industries, and terminal demand is mainly for rigid procurement, leading to correction pressure on copper prices. After the correction, copper prices may fluctuate at high levels [5]. 2. Supply Side - The contradiction between mining and smelting persists, and TC is at a low level. As of November 7, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 498,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8.03%. The spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate dropped to a historical low of - 42 US dollars/ton. In October, domestic southern crude copper processing fees rebounded slightly. Domestic electrolytic copper production continued to decline. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%, mainly affected by smelter maintenance and difficulty in anode copper procurement [9]. 3. Demand Side - With the high - level correction of copper prices, the operating rate increased month - on - month. As of November 6, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 62%, a month - on - month increase of 1.54 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.03 percentage points. The correction of copper prices stimulated the concentrated release of orders, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased. In September, the operating rates of copper plate and strip, copper foil, and copper rod were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively. The terminal orders of copper plate and strip increased, but the growth was limited due to high copper prices. The copper rod industry showed a slight recovery, and the strong terminal demand for lithium - ion copper foil boosted the operating rate of copper foil enterprises to a new high for the year [10]. 4. Inventory - Domestic copper inventory continued to accumulate, the de - stocking of LME copper slowed down, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate. As of November 7, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11.50 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.95%. As of November 6, the domestic social copper inventory was 203,300 tons, a weekly increase of 11.34%. As of November 7, the LME copper inventory was 135,900 tons, a weekly increase of 0.95%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 36,940 short tons, a weekly increase of 3.85% [10]. 5. Strategy Suggestion - Macroscopically, the Fed's hawkish remarks increased, the expectation of an interest rate cut in December decreased, and the delay of key US employment data due to the government shutdown made the market sentiment cautious. The strengthening of the US dollar also suppressed copper prices. Fundamentally, the slow resumption of overseas mines did not alleviate the tight supply of copper concentrates, and TC/RC remained at a low level. Domestic electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month, and short - term supply growth was limited. High copper prices suppressed consumption, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. Near the delivery date, the willingness of holders to support prices increased, and the spot premium rebounded. In the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the operating range of Shanghai copper may be between 84,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading within the range [11]. Group 3: Macroeconomic and Industrial News 1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - China's October RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.6, remaining above the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, indicating continuous improvement in manufacturing prosperity, but the growth rate slowed down. China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year in October, while imports increased by 1.0%. The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces in October. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth consecutive month, with weak demand and employment. The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 50, indicating stagnation. The US officially included copper in the new critical minerals list [15]. 2. Industrial News Overview - Ivanhoe Mines' Q3 profit dropped significantly due to the shutdown of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine. Glencore plans to close its copper smelter in Canada due to cost issues. Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production forecast. Chile's copper exports to China remained high in October. Lundin Mining raised its 2025 copper production forecast and lowered its cost estimate [17]. Group 4: Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 1. Premium and Discount - As copper prices declined, the sentiment of spot procurement and sales of Shanghai copper improved, and the spot premium rebounded. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed, and the New York - London copper price difference weakened slightly [20]. 2. Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of November 7, the futures position of Shanghai copper was 207,136 lots, a weekly decrease of 19.81%; the average daily trading volume was 130,438 lots, a weekly decrease of 43.52%. As of October 31, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 9,862.02 lots, a weekly increase of 318.60% [26]. Group 5: Fundamental Data 1. Supply Side - The contradiction between mining and smelting persists, and TC is at a low level. Domestic copper concentrate port inventory increased, and the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate dropped to a historical low. Domestic electrolytic copper production continued to decline in October [31]. 2. Downstream Operating Rate - As of November 6, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises increased month - on - month. In September, the operating rates of copper plate and strip, copper foil, and copper rod showed different trends. Copper foil enterprises' operating rate reached a new high for the year [35]. 3. Inventory - Domestic copper inventory continued to accumulate, the de - stocking of LME copper slowed down, and COMEX copper inventory continued to increase [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rebound of urea prices is due to improved agricultural demand and export quotas, but its sustainability remains to be verified. The short - term price center of urea has shifted upward, and the short - term range of the 01 contract is 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to order receipt and inventory reduction of high - level inventories [3]. Summary by Directory Market Changes - The price of urea has stabilized and rebounded. On November 7, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1667 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from last week, a 2.58% increase. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1594 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week, a 1.59% increase [3][4]. - The main - contract basis of urea has weakened. On November 7, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 73 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (-78) - (-61) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea has strengthened. On November 7, the 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (-86) - (-67) yuan/ton [3][7]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of Chinese urea enterprises is 83.55%, up 2.61 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises is 72.89%, up 2.29 percentage points from last week, and the daily average output of urea is 18.35 tons. Next week, some overhauled units in Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Ningxia will resume production, and new production capacity in Xinjiang is planned to be put into operation, with no units scheduled for overhaul, so supply is expected to continue to increase [3][10]. Cost - The anthracite market continues to be strong. As of November 6, the含税 price of washed anthracite small lumps (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi is 880 - 950 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 30 yuan/ton from the same period last week [3][13]. Demand - The autumn harvest and sowing are in progress. Northern winter wheat is in the concentrated sowing period, and late rice in the South is in the large - scale harvesting stage. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 31.04%, remaining flat from last week. The inventory of compound fertilizers is 70.11 tons, down 0.33 tons from last week. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased, and the speed of finished - product inventory reduction has slowed down. Other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin have strengthened [3][18][22]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory is 134.2 tons, up 2.5 tons from last week, changing from inventory reduction to inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory is 20.5 tons, down 1.3 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts is 4585, equivalent to 9.17 tons, an increase of 3130 from last week [3][28]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer enterprises, the reduction and overhaul of urea units, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3]

Report Title - Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on Meal and Oil [1] Report Date - November 10, 2025 [1] Reported Industries - Bean meal and oil industries Reported Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views - For bean meal, with the opening of US soybean imports, costs drive the price up. In the short term, US soybeans are expected to fluctuate widely, and domestic bean meal prices will follow, but may be slightly stronger. For oils, prices are oscillating at the bottom, waiting for the guidance of supply and demand reports. In the short term, the upside pressure is large, but there is also support at the bottom [2][8][92] Section Summaries 1. Bean Meal 1.1 Price and Market Situation - As of November 7, the spot price in East China was 2990 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton weekly; the M2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton weekly; the basis price remained unchanged. After China announced the reduction of the import tax rate on US soybeans to 13%, both domestic and foreign markets accelerated their rise, but due to continuous losses in the domestic import soybean crushing profit, the ship - buying progress was slow, causing the US soybean price to fall from its high, and the domestic futures price also followed suit, but with a smaller decline. It is expected that US soybeans will fluctuate around 1100 cents, and the M2601 contract will operate in the range of [3000, 3100] [8][10] 1.2 Supply - On November 14, the USDA will release the November US soybean supply - demand report. Referring to the previous good - quality rate, the probability of a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit is relatively large, which supports the strong operation of US soybeans. As of November 1, the sowing progress of new - crop soybeans in Brazil was 47.1%, lower than 53.3% in the same period last year. In the next two weeks, the precipitation in the main producing areas of Brazil will improve, which is conducive to the sowing of soybeans. In China, the soybean arrival volume in November is normal, but from December to January, due to losses in import crushing profits, the ship - buying progress is slow, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction [8] 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the inventory of pigs and poultry was at a high level, supporting the feed demand. The year - on - year increase in feed demand was more than 7%. In terms of the formula, due to the improved cost - effectiveness of bean meal and the relatively low price, the proportion of bean meal added increased year - on - year. It is expected that the year - on - year increase in bean meal demand in the fourth quarter will be more than 5%, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of more than 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory of oil mills continued to decrease to 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.39%, and an increase of 1.6005 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 29.06%. The bean meal inventory of oil mills continued to increase to 115,300 tons, an increase of 9840 tons from the previous week, an increase of 9.33%, and an increase of 16,890 tons year - on - year, an increase of 17.16% [8] 1.4 Cost - In the 25/26 season, the US soybean yield per unit increased, and the planting cost dropped to 1135 cents/bushel. Assuming a maximum loss of 150 cents/bushel, the bottom price of US soybeans is expected to be around 980 cents/bushel. However, the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is at a low level, and the trend of US soybeans is strong. With the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has weakened, while that of US soybeans has strengthened. Based on the latest quotes, the domestic bean meal cost price is calculated to be 2960 yuan/ton [8] 1.5 Market Summary and Strategy - After the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, there is no further short - term positive stimulus. It is expected that US soybeans will fluctuate widely, and domestic bean meal prices will follow, but due to losses in crushing profits and the entry into the inventory reduction cycle, the price is expected to be slightly stronger than that of US soybeans. The M2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of [3000, 3100], and the basis will maintain a weak trend. If the yield per unit is adjusted downward as expected in the supply - demand report on November 14, US soybeans are expected to rise and then fall, with the price center rising, and domestic bean meal prices will follow. The strategy suggestions are to mainly conduct range operations on the M2601 contract; lightly build long positions on the M2605 and M2609 contracts on dips, and hold existing long positions; spot enterprises should sell the basis on rallies and roll long positions [8] 2. Oils 2.1 Price and Market Situation - As of the week of November 7, the palm oil main 01 contract fell 104 yuan/ton to 8660 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the soybean oil main 01 contract rose 56 yuan/ton to 8184 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 01 contract rose 111 yuan/ton to 9533 yuan/ton. This week, the oil market showed weak palm oil and strong soybean and rapeseed oils, mainly because palm oil was under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October [92] 2.2 Palm Oil - It is estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia in October increased by more than 10%, while the export increase was small. The market expects the ending inventory in that month to accumulate to a high of 2.44 million tons, and the MPOB report is expected to be bearish. In early November, the data from SPPOMA showed that the production in Malaysia continued to increase, while the data from ITS showed weak exports, with strong supply and weak demand continuing to pressure the market. In Indonesia, GAPKI estimates that the country's palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 10% year - on - year, exceeding market expectations. The expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October, combined with the potential obstacles to the implementation of B50 and the increase in production in Indonesia in 2025, will continue to pressure the palm oil price in the short term. However, after the recent decline in palm oil prices, India has been actively buying ships, and demand has improved. After November, Southeast Asia enters the production - reduction season, and La Nina this year may intensify the reduction, so there is still support at the bottom of palm oil prices. It is expected that the Malaysian palm oil 01 contract will oscillate at a low level in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of the support level at 4000 - 4100 and the MPOB report on the 10th. In China, the estimated palm oil ship - buying volumes in October and November are 230,000 tons each, similar to the level in 2024. The palm oil supply from November to December is sufficient. As of October 31, the domestic palm oil inventory was 592,800 tons, and it is difficult to significantly reduce the inventory in the short term [92] 2.3 Soybean Oil - Last week, China decided to maintain the 13% import tariff on US soybeans and restored the import access of three US soybean trading companies, injecting some positive sentiment into the market. However, the market is still waiting for the USDA or other official institutions to provide definite evidence of China's large - scale purchase of US soybeans. Currently, the 13% tariff on US soybeans is still higher than the 3% on Brazilian soybeans. China is accelerating the purchase of Brazilian soybeans as the premium of Brazilian soybeans declines, and the lack of details in the soybean purchase signing ceremony in Shanghai last Thursday has intensified the market's cautious sentiment towards soybean demand. It is expected that US soybeans will enter an oscillating phase after the previous rise. The 01 contract is temporarily expected to test the support level at 1100. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September exceeded 12 million tons, and the oil mills maintained a high operating rate. As of the week of October 31, the soybean oil inventory remained at a high of 1.2158 million tons, and the supply pressure continued to suppress prices. In the long term, the soybean import volume has gradually declined since October compared with the peak in the second and third quarters, which is conducive to the slow reduction of domestic soybean oil inventory. However, China previously imported a large amount of soybeans from Argentina when Argentina取消 its export tax, and US soybeans can also enter China again. The long - term soybean supply is still sufficient, which limits the speed of soybean oil inventory reduction [92] 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian Prime Minister said that it is difficult to cancel the tariff on China in the short term, which has cooled the market's expectation of the rapid normalization of Sino - Canadian relations and the end of the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed. The market has started to trade the fundamental situation of tight rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter again. Without the import of Canadian rapeseed, the rapeseed supply and demand will remain tight in the fourth quarter. The coastal rapeseed inventory has dropped to an extremely low level, causing most rapeseed crushing plants to shut down after the National Day. With the reduction in supply, domestic rapeseed oil is in the process of slow inventory reduction. As of October 31, the inventory dropped to 516,000 tons. Although the import of Australian rapeseed and Russian oil in November will help supplement the supply, China's ability to process Australian rapeseed is limited, and it is the peak season for oil consumption. The marginal improvement in supply and demand in the fourth quarter may be limited. However, it should be noted that the general direction of Sino - Canadian relations is still gradually improving, but there may be various twists and turns in the negotiations between the two countries. With the continuous existence of policy - related risks, the upward space for rapeseed oil prices is also limited [92] 2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short term, due to the expected large - scale inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October, the expected over - increase in production in Indonesia in 2025, the unclear prospects of B50, the market's wait for China to officially start large - scale purchases of US soybeans, and the general improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations, the upside pressure on oils is large. However, the expectation of palm oil production reduction in Southeast Asia starting from November still exists. La Nina is unfavorable to the growth of palm oil in Southeast Asia and soybeans in South America. The US soybean price has rebounded due to the expected improvement in Chinese demand, and the supply and demand of rapeseed in China's fourth quarter are still tight, so there is also support at the bottom of prices, and the overall trend is bottom - building. In the future, pay attention to whether the MPOB report on the 10th shows a large - scale inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October and whether the USDA report on the 14th evening will lower the ending inventory of new - crop US soybeans. Among the varieties, rapeseed oil and soybean oil are stronger than palm oil. In the long term, pay attention to the implementation of the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the United States, the reduction amplitude of palm oil production in Southeast Asia, and whether the La Nina weather speculation in South America can be launched. It is expected that the oil market will fluctuate widely. The strategy suggestions are to pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9300 - 9400 for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils respectively, and not to blindly chase short positions. For the arbitrage side, stop the profit - taking on the strategy of widening the spread between the 01 contracts of soybean and palm oils [92]