Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Disturbances Resurface, Copper Prices Correct from Highs [1] Report Date - October 13, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia halted production due to a mudslide accident, and Freeport expects copper production and sales in Q4 2025 to decline significantly. The long - term supply - demand outlook for copper remains optimistic, and the supply tightening will keep the copper market in a tight balance. The impact of the Grasberg shutdown on copper supply - demand and prices may be long - term, and the long - term price center will continue to rise. However, the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions has led to a sharp decline in copper prices. In the domestic market, high copper prices have weakened consumption, but the low inventory provides strong support for copper prices. Copper prices may stabilize after a short - term adjustment and maintain high - level volatility in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to reduce long positions to avoid short - term risks [5][7] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped production due to a mudslide. In September, the domestic southern crude copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the imported CIF crude copper processing fee was 85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton. As of October 10, the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 40.70 dollars/ton, remaining at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 50.9 tons, a 6.04% increase. In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a 11.62% year - on - year increase but a 4.31% month - on - month decrease due to smelter overhauls and anode plate supply shortages [5] - **Demand Side**: The recovery of downstream consumption during the peak season was limited, and high copper prices suppressed demand. As of October 9, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 43.44%, a 30.34 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 16.99 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventory increased slightly after the holiday. As of October 10, SHFE copper inventory was 10.97 tons, a 15.42% week - on - week increase. As of October 9, domestic social copper inventory was 166,300 tons, a 12.14% week - on - week increase. LME copper inventory was 139,400 tons, a 0.77% week - on - week decrease, and COMEX copper inventory was 33,950 short tons, a 3.81% week - on - week increase [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the Grasberg mine shutdown, copper prices initially rose sharply but then dropped significantly due to Sino - US trade tensions. Long - term supply - demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. It is recommended to reduce long positions to avoid short - term risks [7] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - **Macroeconomic Data Overview**: New policy - based financial instruments total 500 billion yuan; China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8; the PBOC increased its gold holdings by 40,000 ounces in September; the US government "shut down" on October 1, affecting economic data release; US September ADP employment decreased by 32,000; US September ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month [15] - **Industry News Overview**: The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association opposes "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry; Goldman Sachs lowered its copper supply forecast after the Grasberg mine disruption; Peru's Antamina expects its 2026 copper production to increase to 450,000 tons; Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project will start construction in October; Chile's Codelco's August copper production dropped 25% [16] 3. Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: After the holiday, the spot copper market was quiet. As the weekend approached, the spot purchasing sentiment in the Shanghai copper market picked up, and the premium stabilized. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed slightly, the New York - London copper price difference decreased, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened slightly [19] - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of October 10, the Shanghai copper futures position was 216,115 lots, a 1.05% increase from before the holiday, and the average daily trading volume was 175,142 lots, a 18.93% increase. As of October 3, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 14,672.88 lots, a 146.77% week - on - week increase. As of September 23, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 43,389 lots, a 3.07% week - on - week increase [25] 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped production, and Q4 2025 copper production and sales are expected to decline. In September, domestic and imported crude copper processing fees decreased. As of October 10, the copper concentrate port inventory increased slightly. In September, electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month due to smelter overhauls and anode plate supply shortages [34] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of October 9, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped significantly. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. High copper prices and trade policies affected the operating rates of some products [37] - **Imports and Exports**: As of October 10, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 7.99, and the loss on copper spot imports widened slightly. In August, refined copper, scrap copper, and unforged copper and copper product imports increased year - on - year [41] - **Inventory**: As of October 10, SHFE copper inventory increased, domestic social copper inventory increased slightly, LME copper inventory decreased, and COMEX copper inventory increased [48]

Report Overview - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report - Report Date: October 13, 2025 - Report Institution: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the delayed release of non - farm payroll data, lower - than - expected ADP employment data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up risk - aversion sentiment, and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, precious metal prices continued to rise. The London silver spot market was tight. - There are differences in the market's expectations for the extent of interest rate cuts this year, and the expected end - point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. The US PPI data for August was lower than expected, and the dot - plot of the interest rate meeting showed that there will be two more interest rate cuts. - The impact of Trump on the independence of the Federal Reserve is apparent, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be persistent. - With the US economic data trending weaker, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and the independence of the Fed. Supported by interest rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, precious metal prices are expected to remain supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the US non - farm payroll employment data for September released this week [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Gold**: The price of US gold continued its strong trend. As of last Friday, it closed at $4036 per ounce, up 3.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4100, and the lower support level is $3960 [6]. - **Silver**: The price of US silver continued to rise. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 1%, closing at $47.5 per ounce. The lower support level is $46.5, and the upper resistance level is $52 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - Due to multiple factors such as delayed non - farm data and government shutdown risks, precious metal prices are expected to be supported. It is necessary to pay attention to the US non - farm payroll employment data for September [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators No specific analysis content is provided in the text, only some data charts are presented, including real interest rates, the US dollar index, yield spreads, the Fed's balance sheet size, and the gold - silver ratio. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - Eurozone retail sales month - on - month rate in August was 0.1%, in line with expectations and an improvement from the previous - month's - 0.5%. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in October was 55, higher than the expected 54.2 but slightly lower than the previous value of 55.1 [24]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - On October 10, 2025, former US President Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, and implement key software export controls, causing a significant shock in the global financial markets. - In the London market, the silver lease rate soared to 34.98% on October 9, reaching a record high. There may be a run - on risk for overseas silver ingot inventories, and it has become extremely difficult for traders in Singapore to borrow silver from banks. The silver ingot price shows a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically, and it is necessary to closely monitor the opening of the general trade export window and the export trend of silver ingots [25]. 3.6 Inventory - **Gold**: COMEX inventory decreased by 5,294.21 kg to 1,242,294.62 kg this week, and SHFE inventory remained unchanged from last week at 70,728 kg. - **Silver**: COMEX inventory decreased by 292,673.17 kg to 16,250,452.72 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 23,221 kg to 1,169,061 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - **Gold**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds in gold this week was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week. - **Silver**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds in silver this week was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday, October 14, at 20:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in non - farm payroll employment in the US for September and the US unemployment rate for September will be released. - On Thursday, October 16, at 20:30, the US PPI annual rate for September and the US retail sales month - on - month rate for September will be released [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are long - term optimistic, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5][6] - **Black building materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass suggests buying on dips [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper suggests holding long positions on dips; aluminum suggests buying on dips after pullbacks; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin suggests range trading; gold suggests buying on dips; silver suggests range trading [1][10][11][17][18][19][20][21] - **Energy and chemical industry**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash suggests a short - selling strategy [1][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA suggests range trading within 4500 - 4750; apples and jujubes are expected to be strongly oscillating [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agricultural and livestock industry**: Pigs and eggs suggest shorting on rallies; corn suggests wide - range oscillations; soybean meal suggests range oscillations; oils are expected to be strongly oscillating [1][40][43][45][47][49] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has short - term fluctuations due to factors such as Trump's remarks on tariffs and geopolitical events, but a full - scale panic is unlikely. The long - term trends of industries like AI in China and the US are clear, and the US monetary and fiscal policies are in force [5] - In the commodity market, different products have different trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environment impacts 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to oscillate and are long - term optimistic. Due to trade concerns, geopolitical events, and other factors, there may be short - term fluctuations, but full - scale panic is unlikely. Investors can either wait for better opportunities or lock in positions [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They should be kept under observation. Trump's remarks on retaliatory measures may cause short - term oscillations [6] 3.2 Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to oscillate. Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend [8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to oscillate. Currently, the price is under the cost of electric - arc furnace valley electricity and long - process production. In October, the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [8] - **Glass**: It suggests buying on dips. Although the current market has some supply - demand problems, under the background of policy expectations, the glass price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It is expected to have high - level oscillations. Due to the intensification of Sino - US trade tensions, the price has dropped significantly recently, but the long - term supply - demand situation is still optimistic [10][11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to have high - level oscillations. The supply of alumina is relatively loose, while the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, and the demand is entering the peak season. Long positions can be held [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to oscillate. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has some uncertainties for the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of nickel is in surplus, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18] - **Gold and silver**: They are expected to oscillate. Affected by factors such as the delay of non - farm payroll data and the risk of the US government shutdown, the prices are rising. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price pullbacks [19][20][21] 3.4 Energy and chemical industry - **PVC**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, the demand is under pressure, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract temporarily focuses on the pressure at 4850 [22][23] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract temporarily focuses on the range of 2380 - 2530. The market is affected by factors such as upstream inventory and downstream demand [24][25] - **Styrene**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it focuses on the range of 6600 - 6900 [26][27] - **Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply growth expectation is strong, and it focuses on the support at 15000 [28][29] - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating [30] - **Methanol**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is increasing [32] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to oscillate. The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The L2601 contract focuses on the support at 6900, and the PP2601 contract focuses on the support at 6600 [31][32][33] - **Soda ash**: The 01 contract suggests a short - selling strategy. The supply is abundant, the demand is flat, and the inventory is accumulating [33][34] 3.5 Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand situation has some changes, and there are uncertainties in Sino - US relations [35][36] - **PTA**: It suggests range trading within 4500 - 4750. Affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand relationships, the price is weakly oscillating [36] - **Apples and jujubes**: They are expected to be strongly oscillating. Apples are affected by weather, and jujubes are affected by factors such as production areas and market demand [37][38] 3.6 Agricultural and livestock industry - **Pigs**: They are overall under pressure. The supply is increasing, the demand is limited, and the price is weak in the short - term. Different contracts have different investment strategies [40][42] - **Eggs**: The rebound is under pressure. The short - term supply is sufficient, the demand is weakening, and different contracts have different investment strategies [43][44][45] - **Corn**: It suggests range oscillations. It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is affected by factors such as new crop listing and demand [45][46] - **Soybean meal**: The rebound is limited. The US soybeans are affected by factors such as harvest pressure and Sino - US talks, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations [47][48] - **Oils**: They are in high - level adjustment. Short - term回调 risks are increasing, and it is recommended to wait for the end of the回调 before considering long positions [49][50][54]

Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to cautiously go long [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the market has been speculating on the time and production line issues of the coal-to-gas conversion plan in Shahe, trading on the policy expectations of eliminating backward production capacity and anti-price involution. Technically, both long and short forces have weakened, but the trend remains strong. Against the backdrop of policy expectations, the glass futures market is expected to be more likely to rise than fall. Considering the frequent supply-side news disturbances, it is advisable to cautiously go long on the 01 contract and pay attention to the changes in Shahe production lines [3] Summaries by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Main logic: Last week, glass futures fluctuated weakly. Some enterprises raised prices slightly, but due to holidays and rainfall, the shipment of float glass factories was restricted, and the trading in the northern and southern markets weakened. On the supply side, one production line resumed operation last week, and the daily melting volume increased slightly. The national factory inventory rebounded, and the inventories of traders in the main production areas of Shahe and Hubei also increased. Although the spot price has risen significantly recently, the market is still mainly selling at a discount, so the profit improvement is not obvious. On the demand side, downstream processors are still mainly waiting and maintaining just-in-time procurement. In the case of soda ash, after the holiday, the downstream replenishment is over, and the purchasing sentiment has cooled. However, the supply-side pressure continues, and the production is still expected to increase, so it is expected to fluctuate, with a weaker trend than glass [3] - Operation strategy: Cautiously go long [3][4] 2. Market Review - Spot Price - As of October 10, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,230 yuan/ton in North China (+10), 1,220 yuan/ton in Central China (0), and 1,340 yuan/ton in East China (+20). The glass 01 contract closed at 1,207 yuan/ton last Friday, down 63 yuan from the previous week [9][10] 3. Market Review - Basis - As of October 25, the soda ash futures price was 1,240 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,207 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 33 yuan/ton (-12). The basis of the glass 01 contract last Friday was -17 yuan/ton (+50), and the price difference between 01 and 05 contracts was -127 yuan/ton (-14) [11][15] 4. Profit - For the natural gas production process, the cost was 1,577 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was -237 yuan/ton (+21). For the coal gas production process, the cost was 1,164 yuan/ton (-17), and the gross profit was 75 yuan/ton (+32). For the petroleum coke production process, the cost was 1,091 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was 129 yuan/ton (+1). On October 10, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 567 yuan/ton [18] 5. Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 160,155 tons/day (+700). Currently, there are 225 production lines in operation. The first line of Dalian Yaopi in Liaoning with a daily melting volume of 700 tons resumed operation last week [20] 6. Inventory - As of October 10, the total inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,282.4 ten thousand weight boxes (+346.9). Among them, the factory inventory in Hubei was 433 ten thousand weight boxes (+85), the inventory in North China was 1,100.6 ten thousand weight boxes (+188), the inventory in Central China was 634.7 ten thousand weight boxes (+75.7), the inventory in East China was 1,371.1 ten thousand weight boxes (+78.6), the inventory in South China was 965.4 ten thousand weight boxes (+13.4), the inventory in Southwest China was 1,226.6 ten thousand weight boxes (-5.5), and the factory inventory in Shahe was 388 ten thousand weight boxes (+124) [25] 7. Deep Processing - On October 10, the comprehensive sales-to-production ratio of float glass was 90% (-16%), the operating rate of LOW-E glass was 45.2% (-1.9%), and in mid-September, the order days of glass deep processing were 10.5 days (+0.1) [28] 8. Demand - Automobile - In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 224,000 vehicles and a year-on-year increase of 323,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 2.857 million vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 264,000 vehicles and a year-on-year increase of 404,000 vehicles. In August, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.101 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [38] 9. Demand - Real Estate - In August, China's real estate completion area was 26.5913 million m², a year-on-year decrease of 21%; the new construction area was 45.9487 million m² (-20%); the construction area was 43.7767 million m² (-29%); and the commercial housing sales area was 57.4415 million m² (-11%). From September 29 to October 5, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 1.44 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 42% and a year-on-year increase of 58%. In August, the real estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20% [44] 10. Cost - Soda Ash (Futures) - Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,240 yuan/ton (-75). The basis of the soda ash Huazhong 01 contract last Friday was 60 yuan/ton (+75) [51][52] 11. Cost - Soda Ash (Profit) - As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia-alkali method for soda ash enterprises was 1,297 yuan/ton (-26), and the gross profit was -29 yuan/ton (+8); the cost of the joint production method was 1,712 yuan/ton (-55), and the gross profit was -77 yuan/ton (+1). Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,258 yuan/ton (+233), and the ex-factory price of wet ammonium chloride in Xuzhou Fengcheng was 300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [53][54][55] 12. Cost - Soda Ash (Production) - Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 77.08 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.66 tons), including 42.87 tons of heavy soda ash (a month-on-month decrease of 0.28 tons) and 34.21 tons of light soda ash (a month-on-month decrease of 0.38 tons). The number of soda ash warehouse receipts on the exchange last weekend was 7,053 (+2,736). As of October 10, the national in-plant inventory of soda ash was 165.95 tons (a month-on-month increase of 0.83 tons), including 92.07 tons of heavy soda ash (a month-on-month decrease of 0.17 tons) and 73.91 tons of light soda ash (a month-on-month increase of 1 ton) [62][67] 13. Cost - Soda Ash (Apparent Consumption) - Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 51.38 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.77 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 36.72 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.57 tons. The sales-to-production ratio of soda ash last week was 92.23%. In August, the soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories were 23.6 days [70][71][74]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $73.3 per dry ton compared to before the holiday. The approaching end of the rainy season in Guinea and the weakening alumina price pressured the ore price down. The operating capacity of alumina remained stable at 98.55 million tons compared to before the holiday, and the national alumina inventory increased by 105,000 tons to 3.902 million tons on a weekly basis. The newly put - into - operation alumina capacity in the first half of the year has entered a stable production state, and the alumina industry is in a high - stable production situation. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, rising by 15,000 tons to 44.454 million tons compared to before the holiday. The second - phase 100,000 - ton capacity of the Baise Yinhai technical renovation project was restored, but the increase in the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in October was very limited. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 62.5% compared to before the holiday. Although the double - festivals affected the downstream start - up, the peak demand season remained unchanged, and the operating rates of various downstream processing sectors would continue to rise. In terms of inventory, the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory during the double - festivals was within the normal level and did not exceed expectations. For recycled cast aluminum alloys, the demand recovered rapidly after the holiday, leading enterprises had full orders, and the operating rate continued to rise. Trump's signal on China - related tariffs raised market panic, causing declines in the commodity and stock markets. The short - term aluminum price may continue to be under pressure and decline, and long - position holders should pay attention to risk avoidance. However, Trump may be adding bargaining chips for the China - US leaders' APEC meeting in October, and the progress of the event and market sentiment should be monitored [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Economic Indicators - The document presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year yields), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year inflation - adjusted yield, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (including the on - shore and off - shore exchange rates) [7][8]. 2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the prices in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. Stricter safety production supervision, enhanced environmental inspections, and the rainy season have restricted bauxite mining activities. Since mid - August, after the gradual consumption of domestic ore inventory, it has become a common practice in the industry for alumina plants to increase the use of imported ores. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $73.3 per dry ton. The large Guinea mining enterprises' long - term order quotes for the fourth quarter were slightly adjusted, with the FOB price reduced by $1 per dry ton compared to the third quarter. The sea freight is adjusted according to the oil price fluctuations, and the estimated CIF price is around $73 per dry ton [11]. 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, the operating capacity was 98.55 million tons, also unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating rate was 85.9%. The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,937.7 yuan per ton, down 25.3 yuan per ton compared to before the holiday. The national alumina inventory was 3.902 million tons, an increase of 105,000 tons on a weekly basis. Newly put - into - operation capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions has entered a stable production state [15]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 44.454 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from before the holiday. Although the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, the increase in October was expected to be very limited. On September 29, the second - phase 100,000 - ton capacity of the 200,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum energy - saving renovation project of Baise Guangtou Yinhai was successfully restored [24]. 5. Inventory - The document shows the historical data of social inventories of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventories, and LME aluminum inventories from 2021 to 2025 [30][31][32][33]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 2.3% to 58.9% compared to before the holiday. Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to clean up local government's illegal tax rebates. The production arrangements of recycled aluminum enterprises during the holiday were relatively stable, and most enterprises did not stop production or only had a short - term shutdown of 1 - 3 days. The market demand recovered rapidly after the holiday, leading enterprises had full orders, especially for aluminum - water - based orders. However, downstream enterprises' procurement was still cautious, mainly focusing on consuming pre - holiday inventory and replenishing stocks as needed. Policy uncertainty and raw material shortage risks still restricted the start - up of some enterprises [38]. 7. Downstream Start - up - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 62.5% compared to before the holiday. For aluminum profiles, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 53.6%. The resumption of production of some enterprises in East and South China after the holiday was less than expected. In the industrial profile sector, some leading enterprises had good order arrangements for photovoltaic frames in early October; for automotive profiles, new orders remained stable. In the construction profile sector, the market demand was still weak. For aluminum strips, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 68%. During the double - festivals, most leading enterprises maintained normal production. However, some enterprises producing building curtain wall panels had production line rotations or overhauls due to capital chain pressure and longer payment terms, while the demand for industrial plates such as automotive plates and battery shells was stable, and the production lines were basically operating at full capacity. For aluminum cables, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 3% to 64%. Although leading enterprises maintained normal production during the holiday, most enterprises reduced their operating rates, and the restricted logistics during the double - festivals led to the backlog of finished product inventories. With the end of the holiday and the resumption of logistics, combined with the release of traditional rush - work demand in the fourth quarter, the operating rate is expected to rebound. For primary aluminum alloys, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% to 58%. Some enterprises reduced their operating rates due to lower - than - expected downstream demand, and some enterprises maintained their original production rhythms due to unclear post - holiday order situations [51][55]. 8. Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: It is recommended to wait and see. - Shanghai Aluminum: Long - position holders should avoid risks. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Long - position holders should avoid risks or go long on ADC and short on AL [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the US soybean stocks-to-use ratio is tightening, and prices are expected to fluctuate around 1000 cents per bushel. China's soybeans from September to October have sufficient arrivals, and the spot price is weak. From November to January, the outlook for Sino-US trade improvement is dim, and the price is expected to rise. The M2601 contract price is expected to increase slightly [6]. - For oils, in the short term, the intensification of Sino-US disputes has increased macro risks, and oil prices are expected to follow the external market to correct. However, after the macro factors subside, there is still a possibility of a rebound [79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Section 3.1.1 Price and Basis - As of October 11, the spot price in East China was 2930 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the M2601 contract closed at 2922 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the basis price increased by 60 yuan/ton [6][8]. 3.1.2 Supply - The USDA October report was postponed due to the US government shutdown, and the yield is expected to be lowered. Brazil's sowing progress is faster than the same period. China's supply is abundant in October, but there is a risk of supply shortage in the first quarter of next year if US soybean imports cannot continue [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, China's aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by more than 5% year-on-year [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1135 cents per bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 980 cents per bushel. The calculated cost of domestic soybean meal from the US Gulf is 2990 yuan/ton, and that from Brazil is 3160 yuan/ton [6][49]. 3.1.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - The price of US soybeans is expected to fluctuate around 1000 cents per bushel. The price of the M2601 contract is expected to increase slightly, and the strategy is to operate in the range of [2900, 3030] [6]. 3.2 Oil Section 3.2.1 Price and Basis - As of the week of October 10, the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts all increased compared to before the National Day holiday, and the basis also increased [79][80]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB September report was bearish, but the export data in October was strong. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel test provided support. China's palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply in October is sufficient [79]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Sino-US trade disputes have dampened the prospects of US soybean exports to China. China's soybean supply is sufficient until October, which suppresses soybean oil prices. The supply gap after November has narrowed [79]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Anti-dumping measures have affected imports, and there is a supply gap before November. However, policy uncertainties, high domestic inventories, and alternative imports limit price increases [79]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short term, oil prices are expected to correct, but there is a possibility of a rebound later. It is recommended to wait for the correction and then go long, and pay attention to the evolution of Sino-US trade relations [79].

长江期货鲜果周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-10-10 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 震荡偏强 目 录 01 苹果：震荡偏强 02 红枣：震荡偏强 2 风险因素：市场消费情况、宏观政策因素 02 行情回顾 数据来源：博易大师、IFIND、上海钢联、中果网、长江期货 01 苹果：震荡偏强 01 周度观点 1 整体观点：本周新季晚富士零星上市交易，开秤价格普遍高于去年同期 0.3-1.0 元/斤不等，由于国庆节期间东西部连 续阴雨天气影响，导致晚富士的集中上市时间延后，周内产区可供好货有限，客商对于好货采购积极，价格稳硬运行。 反观销区市场表现一般，双节走货未见明显起色整体呈现"产区热、销区冷"的氛围。新果上市，价格明显高于去年， 价格有望维持强势。（数据来源：上海钢联） Ø 本周苹果主力震荡偏强运行。 Ø 苹果基差-91元，较上周-306。 03 苹果批发市场价格走势 数据来源：IFIND、上海钢联、中果网、长江期货 Ø 截止2025年9月26日，全品种苹果批发价格为9.77元/公斤，较上周下跌0. ...

交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 曹雪梅：Z0015756 电话：027-65777102 邮箱：caoxm2@cjsc.com.cn 全球主要市场表现 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,933.97 | 1.32% | | 深圳成指 | 13,725.56 | 1.47% | | 沪深 300 | 4,709.48 | 1.48% | | 上证 50 | 3,020.60 | 1.06% | | 中证 500 | 7,548.92 | 1.84% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 48,580.44 | 1.77% | | 道琼指数 | 46,358.42 | -0.52% | | 标普 500 | 6,735.11 | -0.28% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,024.63 | -0.08% | | 美元指数 | 99.3875 | 0.55% | | 人民币 | 7.1246 | 0.08% | | 纽约黄金 | 3,991.10 | -1.71% | | WTI 原油 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the hog industry, in the short term, the hog price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to increasing supply, high hog weights, and limited demand. In the long term, the supply will continue to grow until the first half of next year, and the price is under pressure. However, the price may strengthen in the second half of next year due to expected capacity reduction, but caution is needed due to continuous cost - cutting in the industry [3][6][51][52]. - For the egg industry, in the short term, after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the demand weakens seasonally, and the egg price is expected to be weak. In the long term, the supply growth rate slows down, but the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs time to clear the excess capacity [59][60][88][89]. - For the corn industry, in the short term, the market is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply from new grain listings and limited terminal demand recovery. In the long term, the import remains low, the old - crop inventory is not high, and the demand is gradually recovering, with strong cost support at the bottom [97][99]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hog Section Market Review - As of October 8, the national hog price was 11.52 yuan/kg, down 2.03 yuan/kg from the end of last month. The Henan hog average price was 11.71 yuan/kg, down 1.94 yuan/kg. On September 30, the main 11 - contract price was 12355 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan/ton (8.85% decline) from the end of last month. The 11 - contract basis was - 645 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan/ton from the end of last month. In September, the hog price continued to decline due to increased supply and limited demand. During the National Day, the hog price hit a new low [6][11]. Supply - The inventory of breeding sows was in a balanced upper - limit range, with production performance improving. The supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is at a high level, and the supply pressure before the first half of next year is still large. The hog inventory increased, and the proportion of large hogs decreased. The planned出栏量 of enterprises in September increased, and the出栏 pressure in October is still large [6][16][21]. Demand - In September, the daily average slaughter of key slaughtering enterprises was 134508 heads, up 14.28% from the previous month and 21.57% year - on - year. The fresh - sales rate decreased, and the terminal demand was weak. After the double festivals, the consumption may decline, but the demand will gradually increase with the cooling weather. However, due to factors such as weak macro - economic recovery and frozen - product inventory, the demand increase is limited [6][32][33]. Cost - The prices of piglets and breeding sows decreased, and the breeding profit was in the red. The long - term breeding cost decreased. As of September 30, the selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 334 yuan/head, down 111 yuan/head from the end of last month. The price of binary sows was 1589 yuan/head, down 11 yuan/head [6][41]. Policy - The government requires the top 25 enterprises to reduce 1 million breeding sows by the end of January. The national pig - grain ratio fell below the warning level, and the state carried out pork procurement and rotation. The procurement is expected to be a total of 50,000 tons, which mainly boosts market sentiment [6][47]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the hog price is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, the price is under pressure until the first half of next year and may strengthen in the second half of next year [51][52]. Valuation - The basis of the hog futures contracts weakened, and the valuation was relatively high [53][54]. Egg Section Market Review - As of September 30, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.27 yuan/jin from the end of August. The average price in the main selling areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, up 0.3 yuan/jin. The main contract price was 3038 yuan/500 kg, up 68 yuan/500 kg. The main basis was - 78 yuan/500 kg, up 182 yuan/500 kg from the end of August. The monthly egg price first rose and then fell [60][64]. Supply - In October, the number of newly - opened laying hens was still relatively high. The supply was sufficient in the short term and the pressure was still large in the long term, but the supply growth rate slowed down [60]. Demand - After the "double festivals", the terminal demand weakened. However, with the cooling weather, the storage period of eggs lengthened, and the low egg price may stimulate inventory demand [60]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the egg price is expected to be weak. In the long term, the supply growth rate slows down, but the market needs time to clear the excess capacity [88][89]. Valuation - The main egg futures contract was at the lowest level since 2020, and the basis was at an average level, with a neutral valuation [93]. Corn Section Market Review - As of September 30, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the end of August. The main 2511 - contract price was 2143 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton. The main basis was 157 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The monthly corn price was weak, and the futures price followed the spot price [99][103]. Supply - The old - crop inventory of traders was not high. With the large - scale listing of new grain, the market supply was sufficient, and the price was seasonally pressured. In August, the corn import was 40,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. The North and South port inventories decreased [99][115][131]. Demand - The increase in livestock and poultry inventories drove the increase in feed demand, but the high corn - wheat price difference and the new - grain listing led to a decrease in corn feed demand. The deep - processing industry remained in the red, and the start - up rate was low [99]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the market is expected to be weak. In the long term, the import remains low, the old - crop inventory is not high, the demand is gradually recovering, and there is strong cost support at the bottom [99]. Valuation - The futures price was at the lowest level in the same period in the past six years, and the basis was at a relatively high historical level [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The reality and expectations of polyolefins are deviated, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7200 - 7500, the PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, focusing on 6900 - 7200, and the LP spread is expected to widen [8][9] - There are still supply - demand contradictions in plastics, and it is expected to run in a fluctuating manner [10] - PP faces significant trend pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 30, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7153 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84%. The average price of LDPE was 9596.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%. The average price of HDPE was 7912.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The LLDPE South China basis was 397 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.52%. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 39 yuan/ton (- 47), with the basis widening and the month spread narrowing [12] 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on September 30, 2025, was - 39 yuan/ton (- 47); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 28 yuan/ton (- 70); the 9 - 1 month spread was 67 yuan/ton (+ 117) [18] - **Spot Price**: The prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, in North China, the price of low - melt injection molding decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the price of wire drawing decreased by 2 yuan/ton [20] - **Cost**: In September, WTI crude oil closed at 62.43 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.58 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. Brent crude oil closed at 66.16 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.31 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 0) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton from the previous month. The profit of coal - based PE was 521 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan/ton from the previous month [27] - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene in China at the end of this month was 81.84%, an increase of 3.16 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 64.26 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%. The weekly maintenance loss was 11.37 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons from the previous week [31] - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 613 tons of new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already put into operation and some planned to be put into operation in the future [34] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' plastic production lines are under maintenance, such as Yanshan Petrochemical's HDPE and LDPE production lines, which have been shut down since May 2025 [36] - **Demand**: The overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 32.86%, an increase of 15.40% from the end of the previous month. The start - up rate of PE packaging film was 52.37%, an increase of 2.81% from the end of the previous month. The start - up rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, an increase of 2.00% from the end of the previous month [38] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 38.5%, with a difference of 3.1% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 9%, with a difference of 2.3% from the annual average level [41] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 53.48 tons, a decrease of 2.72 tons from the end of the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.84% [43] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 30, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,736 lots, an increase of 4,669 lots from the end of the previous month [45] 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 30, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6852 yuan/ton, a decrease of 122 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75% [49] 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products and related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of PP powder decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [52] - **Basis**: On September 30, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6920 yuan/ton (- 3.98%). The PP basis was 68 yuan/ton (- 165), with the basis narrowing. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19), with the month spread narrowing [54] - **Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on September 30, 2025, was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19); the 5 - 9 month spread was 12 yuan/ton (- 101); the 9 - 1 month spread was 28 yuan/ton (+ 120) [58] - **Cost**: In September, WTI crude oil closed at 62.43 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.58 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. Brent crude oil closed at 66.16 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.31 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 0) [61] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 493.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166.16 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The profit of coal - based PP was 338.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 181.34 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [65] - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 75.52%, a decrease of 4.48 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.48 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.61% [70] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises are under maintenance, such as Qilu Petrochemical's single - line production line, which has been shut down since January 2025 [73] - **Demand**: The average start - up rate of downstream industries this week was 51.85% (+ 0.40). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 43.90% (+ 0.30), the start - up rate of BOPP was 61.38% (- 0.04%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 58.34% (+ 0.11%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.87% (+ 0.14%) [75] - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene this week was - 546.82 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 66.76 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was - 7.23 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.54 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week [80] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene this week was 52.03 tons (- 5.50%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 1.21% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 0.58% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 7.61% month - on - month [85] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 30, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,098 lots, an increase of 1,173 lots from the end of the previous month [91]