期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 19 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆豆粕： ...

2025-5-19 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 铜周报：中美关税降温，铜价走势仍强 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 上周沪铜偏强震荡，截至上周五收至78140元/吨，周涨幅0.89%。旺季转淡，库存低位累库，对铜价的支撑作用减弱。中美日内 瓦经贸会谈联合声明互降关税，同时美国通胀降温，美联储降息概率加大，整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖，对铜价有所提振。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 24-03-20 24-03-28 24-04-09 24-04-17 24-04-25 24-05-08 24-05-16 24-05-24 24-06-03 24-06-12 24-06-20 24-06-28 24-07-08 24-07-16 24-07-24 24-08-01 24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of May, the global oil market experienced significant events, and domestic oil prices first declined and then rebounded, with continued differentiation among varieties. The short - term domestic oil market will correct, constrained by factors such as the slump in international crude oil and US soybean oil prices and the expectation of improved supply. However, the macro - improvement brought about by the warming of Sino - US relations and the positive impact of the USDA May report limit the decline. In the medium - to - long term, the increase in the arrival volume of soybeans and palm oil in the second quarter will drag the overall oil market down, and it will stop falling and rebound in the third quarter due to factors such as the decrease in the sown area of new soybean and rapeseed crops in North America and possible weather speculation[1][2][5]. - For trading strategies, the short - term rebound of bean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts for September delivery is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up or short - sell after the rebound ends. For arbitrage, the general trend of the widening spread between bean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil contracts for September delivery remains unchanged, but the process of upward repair of the spread will not be smooth, and it is recommended to enter the market in a rolling manner on dips[3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Palm Oil - Short - term: The seasonal production increase season will drive the accumulation of inventory in the producing areas and open the window for domestic purchases. Under the simultaneous improvement of supply and demand at home and abroad, the palm oil contract for September delivery is likely to decline in the second quarter. However, factors such as the possible improvement in export demand after the price decline in the producing areas, the disturbance on the international crude oil and macro - sides will intensify the fluctuations during the decline[6]. - Malaysia: In April, Malaysia's palm oil production and demand both increased, but the production increase of 21.52% was much larger than the export increase of 9.62%, resulting in a continued rise in the ending inventory to 1870000 tons, higher than market expectations. In the next few months, the production is expected to increase, and the SSPOMA data shows that the production from May 1 - 10 increased by 22.31% month - on - month. After the price decline, export demand is expected to improve, and the strong purchasing willingness of major importing countries may slow down the inventory accumulation speed[7]. - Indonesia: In February, production decreased slightly month - on - month, but exports increased significantly, and the ending inventory dropped to 4140000 tons. From March to April, due to factors such as Ramadan, the rainy season, and the transfer of export demand from Malaysia, the supply was weak and demand was strong, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The precipitation in 2024 may affect the production recovery from May to July 2025, but the abundant precipitation from October to December 2024 is beneficial for the production increase in the third quarter of 2025. However, the B40 plan and the increase in palm oil exports may prevent smooth inventory accumulation[9]. - China: In April, the domestic palm oil market continued to be in a state of weak supply and demand, with inventory remaining below 400000 tons. After the price decline in late April, the import profit improved significantly, and a large number of new purchases were made from late April to early May. It is estimated that the arrival volume from May to July will be 228000, 228000, and 12000 tons respectively, and the inventory is expected to stop falling and rebound from May[13]. - Medium - to - long term: Until October 2025 is the traditional production increase season for palm oil. The continuous production increase will put pressure on prices in the second and third quarters. After that, as the producing areas enter the seasonal production decline season, prices will strengthen again[16]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: The domestic soybean oil fundamentals are still weak. Although factors such as the improvement of macro - sentiment, the positive impact of the USDA May report, and the favorable news of the US biodiesel policy stimulate a short - term rebound, the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans from May to July and the normal weather in the early sowing period of new US soybean crops limit the rebound height, and the overall trend is weak and volatile, with the domestic market weaker than the international market[17]. - South America: The 24/25 soybean harvest in South America is a foregone conclusion. The combined output of Brazil and Argentina is 218 million tons, an increase of 15.29 million tons year - on - year. The export data of soybeans and soybean products in 2025 have also increased significantly. The supply pressure in the second quarter is large, and the decline in the basis of Brazilian soybeans has weakened the cost support for domestic soybean oil[18]. - US: The USDA May report estimates that the sown area of new US soybean crops in the 25/26 season will decrease by 4.13% year - on - year, and the supply - demand situation will gradually change from loose to tight. However, it is still in the early sowing period, and there is uncertainty. In the short term, there is rainfall in the Midwest in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial for sowing, and there is no opportunity for weather speculation[21]. - Policy: The future development of the US biofuel policy and Sino - US tariff issues needs attention. The market expects an increase in the biodiesel blending volume in 2026, but the actual blending target is uncertain. The extension of the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy is also uncertain. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs has a limited impact on soybean purchases in the second quarter but may affect the market in the fourth quarter[22][24]. - China: The domestic soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 10 million tons per month on average. The soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 654400 tons, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future[26]. - Medium - to - long term: In the third and fourth quarters, the selling pressure of Brazilian soybeans will gradually ease. Possible weather speculation in North America and the possible difficulty in importing US soybeans if the Sino - US trade dispute intensifies again will help the long - term soybean oil price to strengthen and raise the price center[28]. Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed oil contract for September delivery has been the strongest among the three oils. Due to China's additional 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal and the ongoing anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the long - term is expected to decline. Coupled with the tight supply - demand situation of old - crop rapeseed in Canada and the possible reduction in new - crop production, rapeseed oil is expected to maintain its strong position. However, without policy support, it is difficult for rapeseed oil to have an independent sharp rise in the second quarter when the overall trend of soybean and palm oil is weak[29]. - Abroad: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season is very tight, which has supported the continuous strengthening of the rapeseed oil price since late March. The production has decreased, while domestic consumption and exports have increased. The inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped significantly. The sown area of new - crop rapeseed in the 25/26 season is expected to decline, and there is a risk of drought in some areas, which may lead to weather speculation during the sowing period[30]. - China: From January to March, the continuous large - scale import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and the sluggish consumption have led to inventory accumulation. As of May 9, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was as high as 863900 tons. However, due to the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and the anti - dumping investigation, the far - month rapeseed supply is expected to tighten, which will support the price of rapeseed oil in the third and fourth quarters[31].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 16 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 防守观望 | | | ◆国债： 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： 暂时观望 | | | ◆铁矿石： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆双焦： 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： 建议观望 | | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： 区间交易 | | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： 观望。 | | | 震荡 ◆烧碱： | | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： 震荡运行 | | | ◆甲醇： 震荡运行 | | | ◆塑料： 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡反弹 | | | ◆苹果： 震荡运行 | | | ◆PTA： 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆鸡蛋： 走势偏弱 | | | ◆玉米： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆豆粕： ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-05-16 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 5 月 16 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较 上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；广东 14.9-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育 强势进场，部分养殖户预计加快出栏节奏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，猪肉消费转 淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动 进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能 提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险， ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： ◆ 烧碱： 5 月 15 日受魏桥上调采购价和氧化铝大涨影响，主力 SH09 合约收 2567 元/吨（+37），山东市场主流价 830 元/吨（0），折百 2594 元/吨（0）， 液氯山东-50 元/吨（-100）。5 月 16 日开始，山东地区某氧化铝厂家采 购 32%离子膜碱价格上调 15 元/吨，执行出厂 760 元/吨（折百 2375 元/ 吨）。截至 20250515，隆众资讯统计全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本 企业厂库库存 41.59 万吨(湿吨)，环比上调 7.09%，同比上涨 1.74%。山 东意外检修较多，近期液氯与烧碱价格均反弹。中期看，供应端，减产 装置中下旬陆续恢复，利润尚可、开工高位，新装置有少量投产预期， 库存高位去库不畅，供应同比压力偏大。需求端，关税影响烧碱下游非 铝行业需求（如印染化纤），非铝有补库放缓，五月后步入淡季；氧化 铝投产与降负并存，边际企业亏损减停产增多，需求边际转弱预期，魏 桥的烧碱日均收货量低于日耗，支撑采购价上涨；海外有氧化铝新投产， 烧碱出口存一定支撑，呈现阶段性签单。总的来看，短期供应减量和关 税缓和有支撑 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：区间震荡 现货方面：PT ...

Group 1: Overall Core View - The black industry market is affected by multiple factors including macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international relations. Different products in the black industry have different trends [1][3][4] Group 2: Report on Each Product 1. Rebar - On Thursday, rebar futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 132 (+19) [1] - In terms of macro - policies, on May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies, and the Sino - US talks had better - than - expected results. In the industrial aspect, this week, rebar production and apparent demand both increased, and inventory continued to decline. Whether demand has started seasonal decline needs further observation [1] - In terms of valuation, rebar futures prices are still lower than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a low static valuation. In terms of driving factors, the Sino - US trade environment has improved, and the probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short - term is small. The current supply - demand situation is okay, but demand faces seasonal decline pressure. It is expected that prices will fluctuate [1] 2. Iron Ore - On Thursday, due to the good expectations from the Sino - US talks, the market speculated on export rush again, and the futures price rebounded. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton (-5), the Platts 62% index was 102.20 US dollars/ton (-0.60), and the monthly average was 99.67 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 82 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,422.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 118. The total inventory of 45 ports + 247 steel mills was 23,197.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 439.84. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 244.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 [1] - Steel mills' profitability this week is okay, and the willingness to resume production after blast - furnace maintenance is strong. As it is about to enter the traditional off - season, there is limited room for the high - level hot - metal output to increase further, with a peak - reaching expectation. The positive effect of domestic monetary policy has landed, and the follow - up macro - expectation effect is weakening. It is expected that iron ore will maintain a box - shaped oscillation [1] 3. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in domestic main production areas are generally stable, but some areas have phased production cuts due to safety inspections and sales pressure, and overall supply is relatively loose. In terms of imports, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is suppressed by weak demand, and traders' quotes are under pressure [3] - In terms of demand, the expectation of coke price cuts continues to ferment, downstream coke enterprises maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, the auction market sentiment is weak, and the transaction price of some coal types has declined. The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is not significantly alleviated, and coal mine inventory pressure is emerging. In the short - term, prices may continue to be under pressure [3] 4. Coke - In terms of supply, coke enterprises in main production areas maintain a stable production situation, and some areas continue to limit production due to continuous pressure on profit margins, but overall capacity release is relatively loose. In terms of demand, steel mills continue the low - inventory management mode, and the restocking rhythm is mainly based on rigid demand. High - level hot - metal output supports short - term consumption, but the expectation of seasonal weakening of terminal demand suppresses the willingness to stockpile raw materials [4] - The improvement of Sino - US relations boosts market sentiment, but the expectation of simultaneous decline in domestic and foreign demand for steel products intensifies the negative feedback pressure on the industrial chain. Mainstream steel mills still have a tendency to reduce prices when purchasing raw materials. The coke market is in a weak balance state of strong supply and weak demand, and short - term prices may continue to oscillate within a range [4] Group 3: Industry News - On May 15, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which requires the renovation of old urban communities, the construction of complete communities, and the renovation of old blocks, old factories, and urban villages [6] - From January to April 2025, the online retail sales and volume of China's home appliance market (excluding 3C) increased by 9.1% and 1.2% year - on - year respectively, and the offline retail sales and volume increased by 14.8% and 4.5% year - on - year respectively [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed is considering adjusting the core content of the monetary policy guidance framework to deal with major changes in inflation and interest - rate prospects after the 2020 pandemic [6] - According to Mysteel's May survey on the southward movement of steel from the north, the planned southward movement volume of northeast rebar in May was 360,000 tons, an increase of 142,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. The planned southward movement volume of wire rods was 275,000 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 20,000 tons month - on - month [6] - The Inner Mongolia Industry and Information Technology Department carried out on - site verification of the implementation of the 2024 stepped electricity - price policy and announced the verification results [6]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 15 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆豆粕： | 震 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The short - term outlook for treasury bonds is positive [4] Group 2: Core Views - For stock indices, China's April social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 280 billion yuan, the M2 - M1 gap widened, and RMB deposits increased by 12.55 trillion yuan in the first four months. The establishment of the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" was announced. The North - bound 50 and Flush micro - cap stocks reached new highs, while bank ETFs also neared historical highs, indicating more volatile subsequent stock index movements. Currently, the market index is close to the March high, but the fundamentals, sentiment, hot topics, and trading volume are not as good as in March. It is advisable to adopt a defensive stance and wait for a clear direction [1] - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the market is in a state of multi - empty equilibrium. The trading around short - term tariff issues is almost over. The core issues driving the market are whether funds can remain stable and whether there will be a rebound in production and exports. There is no clear tendency in the game between reality and expectations, and the market trend is rather confusing. It is difficult for the yield to break through the oscillation range since April before the continuous loosening of funds is disproven and the expectation of fundamental improvement is confirmed [3] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2] - For treasury bonds, be bullish in the short term [4] Group 4: Market Review - For stock indices, the futures of the CSI 300 index main contract rose 1.45%, the SSE 50 index main contract futures rose 1.85%, the CSI 500 index main contract futures rose 0.77%, and the CSI 1000 index main contract futures rose 0.77% [6] - For treasury bonds, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.12%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.13%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.05% [9] Group 5: Technical Analysis - For stock indices, the KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows possible oscillatory movement with adjustment risks [7] - For treasury bonds, the KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows oscillatory movement with a possible rebound [10] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3907.40 | 1.45 | 81957 | 164602 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2737.60 | 1.85 | 48329 | 61472 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5697.80 | 0.77 | 72621 | 117024 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6043.00 | 0.77 | 189515 | 196475 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.53 | - 0.12 | 68753 | 126019 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.81 | - 0.13 | 55124 | 104037 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.93 | - 0.23 | 78310 | 59236 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.29 | - 0.05 | 35705 | 59021 | [12]