1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The reality and expectations of polyolefins are deviated, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7200 - 7500, the PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, focusing on 6900 - 7200, and the LP spread is expected to widen [8][9] - There are still supply - demand contradictions in plastics, and it is expected to run in a fluctuating manner [10] - PP faces significant trend pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 30, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7153 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84%. The average price of LDPE was 9596.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%. The average price of HDPE was 7912.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The LLDPE South China basis was 397 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.52%. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 39 yuan/ton (- 47), with the basis widening and the month spread narrowing [12] 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on September 30, 2025, was - 39 yuan/ton (- 47); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 28 yuan/ton (- 70); the 9 - 1 month spread was 67 yuan/ton (+ 117) [18] - **Spot Price**: The prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, in North China, the price of low - melt injection molding decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the price of wire drawing decreased by 2 yuan/ton [20] - **Cost**: In September, WTI crude oil closed at 62.43 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.58 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. Brent crude oil closed at 66.16 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.31 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 0) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton from the previous month. The profit of coal - based PE was 521 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan/ton from the previous month [27] - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene in China at the end of this month was 81.84%, an increase of 3.16 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 64.26 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%. The weekly maintenance loss was 11.37 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons from the previous week [31] - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 613 tons of new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already put into operation and some planned to be put into operation in the future [34] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' plastic production lines are under maintenance, such as Yanshan Petrochemical's HDPE and LDPE production lines, which have been shut down since May 2025 [36] - **Demand**: The overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 32.86%, an increase of 15.40% from the end of the previous month. The start - up rate of PE packaging film was 52.37%, an increase of 2.81% from the end of the previous month. The start - up rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, an increase of 2.00% from the end of the previous month [38] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 38.5%, with a difference of 3.1% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 9%, with a difference of 2.3% from the annual average level [41] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 53.48 tons, a decrease of 2.72 tons from the end of the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.84% [43] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 30, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,736 lots, an increase of 4,669 lots from the end of the previous month [45] 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 30, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6852 yuan/ton, a decrease of 122 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75% [49] 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products and related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of PP powder decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [52] - **Basis**: On September 30, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6920 yuan/ton (- 3.98%). The PP basis was 68 yuan/ton (- 165), with the basis narrowing. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19), with the month spread narrowing [54] - **Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on September 30, 2025, was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19); the 5 - 9 month spread was 12 yuan/ton (- 101); the 9 - 1 month spread was 28 yuan/ton (+ 120) [58] - **Cost**: In September, WTI crude oil closed at 62.43 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.58 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. Brent crude oil closed at 66.16 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.31 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 0) [61] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 493.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166.16 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The profit of coal - based PP was 338.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 181.34 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [65] - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 75.52%, a decrease of 4.48 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.48 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.61% [70] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises are under maintenance, such as Qilu Petrochemical's single - line production line, which has been shut down since January 2025 [73] - **Demand**: The average start - up rate of downstream industries this week was 51.85% (+ 0.40). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 43.90% (+ 0.30), the start - up rate of BOPP was 61.38% (- 0.04%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 58.34% (+ 0.11%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.87% (+ 0.14%) [75] - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene this week was - 546.82 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 66.76 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was - 7.23 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.54 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week [80] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene this week was 52.03 tons (- 5.50%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 1.21% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 0.58% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 7.61% month - on - month [85] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 30, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,098 lots, an increase of 1,173 lots from the end of the previous month [91]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the aluminum price remains strong due to the resonance of macro and fundamental expectations. In October, the Fed's interest rate cut and the controllable inflation and economic risks in the US create a favorable macro - environment for the rise of aluminum prices. Although the peak demand season in September was not satisfactory, the demand in October is still promising. The supply growth of electrolytic aluminum slows down, and the aluminum ingot inventory is expected to decline, which will support the aluminum price. [1][78] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The overall trend of the Shanghai aluminum market in September was a rapid rise followed by a rapid decline. At the beginning of the month, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation increased, but China's export data was poor, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase, so the aluminum price fluctuated. Then, due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the obvious reduction of aluminum ingot inventory, the aluminum price rose rapidly and hit a new high this year. After that, due to the poor economic data in China and the increase in inventory, the aluminum price fell back. Before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the market's inventory - building sentiment was good, but the non - ferrous metal sector declined, and the aluminum price was weak. [6] 2. Macro and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Overseas Macro Indicators**: It shows data on the Fed's and the European Central Bank's interest - rate decisions, US inflation indicators, freight indices, etc. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. The European Central Bank has also carried out multiple interest - rate cuts since 2024. [12][14] - **Domestic Macro Indicators**: It includes data on GDP growth, social financing scale, PMI, exchange rates, inflation, and import - export. China's export growth slowed down in August, and the trade balance was affected by factors such as tariffs. The government has introduced policies to support the economy, such as issuing special bonds. [19][25] 3. Aluminum Raw Material and Production - **Domestic Bauxite**: The production in the main domestic bauxite - producing areas remains stable. Due to safety supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan, and the rainy season, the mining of bauxite is restricted. After the inventory of domestic ore is gradually consumed, alumina plants generally increase the use of imported ore. With the end of the rainy season in Guinea and the increase in imported ore, the price of domestic ore is expected to decline. [28] - **Imported Bauxite**: In August 2025, the import volume of bauxite was 18.29 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.81% and a year - on - year increase of 18.24%. Guinea is the largest supplier. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the supply - demand surplus pattern of bauxite will be more prominent, and the price of imported ore is expected to decline. [31] - **Alumina**: At the end of September, the built - in production capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, and the operating capacity was 98.55 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 350,000 tons. The domestic spot weighted index of alumina decreased. The production of the alumina industry is in a high - stable state, but due to the decrease in the import of Guinean bauxite and the rapid release of production and inventory accumulation, the price of alumina continues to weaken. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in October. [34] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of September, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 45.232 million tons, and the operating capacity was 44.449 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons. The operating capacity is expected to increase steadily in October, but the new production and restart capacity are very limited. [36][39] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import**: In August 2025, the net import of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 1.917 million tons. In the first and middle of September, the loss of electrolytic aluminum imports increased. In October, with the expectation of the relative strength of Shanghai aluminum, the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase. [42] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit**: In September, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 368 yuan/ton to 15,120 yuan/ton, mainly due to the decline in the price of alumina. It is expected that the production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry will remain stable in October. [44] 4. Aluminum Downstream Demand - **Automobile**: In August, automobile production and sales increased, and the export reached a new high. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles continued to increase. With the support of special bonds and the arrival of the peak season, and the pre - demand caused by the restart of the new - energy vehicle purchase tax next year, the demand for aluminum in the automobile industry is expected to continue to grow. [52] - **Real Estate**: From January to August, real estate development investment, construction area, new - start area, and sales area all declined. Although the government has introduced a series of loosening policies, the real - estate market is still weak. [55] - **Infrastructure**: In August, the issuance of new local bonds decreased, but the issuance progress of new special bonds in the first eight months was faster, which is expected to drive future infrastructure investment to maintain a high growth rate. However, the use of special bonds for debt repayment and land reserve will have a crowding - out effect on infrastructure investment. The investment in the power grid has increased significantly, and the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is still optimistic. [58] - **Home Appliances**: In August, the production and export of home appliances showed different trends. The export of home appliances showed certain resilience. With the support of special bonds and the increase in the production schedule of three major white - goods in October, the demand for aluminum in the home - appliance industry is expected to increase. [61] - **Photovoltaic**: In July, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative installed capacity from January to July increased significantly year - on - year. With the release of provincial mechanism electricity prices, the uncertainty of photovoltaic project returns is partially eliminated, and the photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to remain low but may improve month - on - month. [64] - **Aluminum Products Export**: In August, the net export of domestic aluminum products decreased year - on - year. Due to factors such as the restart of US tariffs and the full release of the US import demand, the export of aluminum products in October may decrease month - on - month. [67] 5. Aluminum Price Outlook - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase steadily, but the growth rate slows down. The demand in October is expected to improve in some fields, and the cost is expected to remain stable. The Fed's interest - rate cut creates a good macro - environment, and the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory in October is expected to support the aluminum price. If the inventory reduction is not effective, it is recommended to take profit at high points at the end of October and in November. [78]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Monthly Report for October: Peak Season Demand Supports, Prices Fluctuate Widely" [1] - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [3] - Report Institution: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The supply disturbances at the salt lake and mica ends are frequent, and the cost center of lithium carbonate will move up due to issues such as resource tax and mining right transfer fees. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance before the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi is clarified, and South American lithium salt imports may supplement the supply. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is supported, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the mining license progress in Yichun and the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [60]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Review - Early supply disturbances at the salt lake and mica ends and off - season demand drove prices to a phased high. In September, with increased arrivals of lithium carbonate and lithium concentrate and continuous production increase in ore - based lithium extraction, prices fell and then fluctuated. As of September 30, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,000 yuan/ton, down 8.5% from the end of last month, and battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 74,000 yuan/ton, down 7.7% [10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Carbonate Lithium Industry Chain Introduction - The supply sources of lithium carbonate include lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, salt lake brine, and recycling lithium extraction. The downstream demand includes new energy vehicles, energy storage, two - wheeled vehicles, and consumer electronics [17]. 2.2 Supply Side - In 2024, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 700,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35%. In September 2025, the production was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%, and the production from January to September was 704,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. The production is concentrated in Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai, and the proportion of salt - lake lithium extraction will gradually increase in the future. Australian mines have expanded production and reduced costs, and the sources of lithium concentrate imports are diversified. From January to August 2025, China imported about 4.866 million tons of lithium concentrate, a year - on - year increase of 27%, and 155,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year increase of 6% [22][24]. 2.3 Demand Side - **Positive Materials**: Carbonate lithium is used to process positive materials for lithium batteries. In 2024, the annual production of lithium iron phosphate was 2.571 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54%, and the production of ternary materials was 707,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%. In August 2025, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 329,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50%, and the production of ternary materials was 78,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%. It is expected that the production of positive materials in October will increase by 1% month - on - month [31]. - **Power Batteries**: In 2024, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 34.4% and 35.5% respectively year - on - year. In August 2025, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 55.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. In August, the total production of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. The production of lithium iron phosphate batteries is booming, and the production in October is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month [34][38]. - **Energy Storage Batteries**: The global energy storage market is growing rapidly. In 2024, the global energy storage battery shipments were 340 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 55%, and the shipments of Chinese energy storage lithium batteries were 331 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 60%. In the first half of 2025, the global energy storage lithium battery shipments were 316 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 98% [43]. - **Consumer Batteries**: In 2024, the global shipments of consumer - type lithium - ion batteries were 124.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 9.63%, and the shipments of Chinese consumer - type lithium batteries were about 55 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 12.24%. It is expected that the shipments of Chinese consumer lithium batteries will further increase in 2025 [48]. 2.4 Lithium Battery Industry Chain Profit Situation - With the arrival of the sales peak season, new energy vehicle sales are expected to maintain high growth, driving the growth of battery and material demand. The demand for lithium battery inventory is strong, and production scheduling is expected to continue to rise. The energy storage demand exceeding expectations will accelerate the arrival of the supply - demand inflection point for batteries and materials, and lithium iron phosphate materials may be the first to see supply - demand and price increase inflection points [51]. 2.5 Inventory Structure - In September, the total social inventory dropped to around 137,000 tons, and it is expected that the inventory removal speed will accelerate in October. As of September 26, the factory inventory of lithium carbonate was 26,000 tons, an increase of 1,305 tons from the end of August, the market inventory decreased by 12,000 tons to 64,000 tons, and the inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 10,400 tons to 40,000 tons [56]. 3. Future Outlook for Carbonate Lithium Prices - Supply disturbances at the salt lake and mica ends continue. The cost of lithium carbonate will rise, and the domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance. The short - term price is supported, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the mining license progress in Yichun and the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [60].

长江期货粕类油脂月报 2025-10-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 02 油脂：短期跟随外盘补涨，中长期偏强对待 目 录 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 01 豆粕：贸易预期改善，价格偏弱运行 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止9月30日，华东现货报价2890元/吨，月度报价下跌80元/吨；M2601合约收盘至2928元/吨，月度下跌127元/吨；基差报价01-40 元/吨，基差价格上涨50元/吨。月度受中美贸易预期改善以及阿根廷大豆出口税取消影响，美豆承压下行；国内进口成本回落叠加供应预期改 善，价格大幅下跌，现货受制于供应压力，表现持续偏弱。 ◆ 供应端：USDA9月供需报告上调美豆种植面积至8110万英亩，单产下调至53.5蒲/英亩，结转库存上调至3亿蒲，供需边际转松，但美豆库销比 6.89%，供需收紧趋势不变。巴西今年进入播种阶段，受3-5价差利润丰厚，农民加快种植，截至9月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for glass futures. The main reasons include the weak support from the real - estate rush - to - build demand in October, the existence of positive expectations such as domestic macro news and environmental protection policies, and the technical indication of stronger bullish and weaker bearish forces. It is expected that the glass 2601 contract will face a pressure range of 1280 - 1300 and is likely to adjust in the near term but still be viewed optimistically. [2][98] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Spot Price**: As of September 30, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,230 yuan/ton (+70) in North China, 1,220 yuan/ton (+70) in Central China, and 1,320 yuan/ton (+90) in East China. [13] - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,210 yuan/ton, up 27 for the week. [13] - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 20 yuan/ton (+47). The 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton (+13). [18] - **Soda - Glass Spread**: As of September 30, the soda futures price was 1,255, the glass futures price was 1,210, and the spread between them was 45 yuan/ton (-45). [14] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern 2.1 Profit - **Gas - Made Process**: Cost was 1,577 yuan/ton (-1), and gross profit was - 257 yuan/ton (+91). - **Coal - Gas - Made Process**: Cost was 1,172 yuan/ton (-17), and gross profit was 58 yuan/ton (+87). - **Petroleum Coke - Made Process**: Cost was 1,091 yuan/ton (-1), and gross profit was 129 yuan/ton (+71). [23] 2.2 Supply - The pre - holiday daily melting volume of glass was 159,455 tons/day (0), with 225 production lines in operation. [25] 2.3 Inventory - As of September 30, the inventory of 80 national glass sample manufacturers was 5,935.5 ten - thousand weight boxes (-155.3). Inventories in different regions showed various changes, with some decreasing and some increasing. [29][37] 2.4 Deep - Processing - On September 29, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 87% (+6%). On September 30, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.1% (-1%). In mid - September, the order - available days for glass deep - processing were 10.5 days (+0.1). [38] 2.5 Demand (Automobile) - In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 and a year - on - year increase of 323,000. Sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 264,000 and a year - on - year increase of 404,000. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.101 million, with a penetration rate of 55.2%. [49] 2.6 Demand (Real Estate) - In August, China's real - estate completion area was 26.5913 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21%; new construction was 45.9487 million square meters (-20%); construction in progress was 43.7767 million square meters (-29%); and commercial housing sales were 57.4415 million square meters (-11%). From September 13 - 19, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.54 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. In August, real - estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20%. [57] 2.7 Import and Export - As of August, China's float glass imports were 473,600 weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 61%), and exports were 2.21 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 120%). [59] 2.8 Cost End - Soda (Futures) - Last Friday, the soda 2601 contract closed at 1,255 yuan/ton (-18). The basis of soda in Central China for the 01 contract was 45 yuan/ton (+18). [69] 2.9 Cost End - Soda (Profit) - As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda was 1,323 yuan/ton (+3), with a gross profit of - 37 yuan/ton (0); the cost of the co - production method was 1,767 yuan/ton (+28), with a gross profit of - 78 yuan/ton (-7). [71][73] 2.10 Cost End - Soda (Inventory) - Last week, domestic soda production was 776,900 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,200), including 430,100 tons of heavy soda (a month - on - month increase of 12,400) and 346,800 tons of light soda (a month - on - month increase of 18,800). The loss was 94,700 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 31,500). As of September 30, the national in - factory soda inventory was 1.5999 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 95,800). [81][87] 2.11 Cost End - Soda (Apparent Consumption) - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda was 513,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,700; the apparent demand for light soda was 367,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,700. The soda production - sales rate was 113.4%, a week - on - week increase of 7.78%. In August, the soda inventory days of sample float glass factories were 23.6 days. [94][95] 3. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is to buy on dips. The main reasons include the pre - holiday glass futures price trend, stable supply, decreasing inventory, profit changes, demand characteristics, and the expected trend of soda. The glass 2601 contract is expected to adjust in the near term but still be viewed optimistically, with support at 1190 - 1200. [2][98]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply of urea is increasing, with expected growth of 8 - 12% year - on - year. The daily output is likely to reach a new high in Q4. Demand is diverse: agricultural demand awaits the spread of autumn fertilization; industrial demand shows narrow fluctuations; and export demand is expected to be released in October - November. The long - term price of urea is under pressure due to supply, but short - term pulse - type price increases may occur based on seasonal factors. Attention should be paid to the support level of the 01 contract and potential positive spread opportunities [51]. Summary by Directory 1. Urea Futures and Spot Price Review - **Futures Price**: In September, the urea futures price oscillated downward, closing at 1670 yuan/ton on September 30, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton or 4.19% from the beginning of the month [5]. - **Spot Price**: In the Henan market from January - September 2025, the price of small and medium - sized urea ranged from 1565 to 1962 yuan/ton. On September 23, it was 1609 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan/ton or 6.07% from the beginning of the month. The main basis in major markets weakened, with Henan at - 49 yuan/ton, Shandong at - 58 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia at - 108 yuan/ton, and Shaanxi at - 118 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - **Capacity**: In Q3, four urea plants were put into production, with a total new capacity of about 520 tons in 2025 so far [11]. - **Production**: From January - September 2025, the total urea production was 5387.15 tons, a year - on - year increase of 590.45 tons or 12.3%. The daily average output was higher than historical values, currently above 19 tons [14]. 3. Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - **Cost**: The anthracite market price first rose and then stabilized. As of September 30, the prices in Shanxi's Jincheng and Yangquan areas remained stable compared to the previous week [18]. - **Profit**: Due to rising coal prices and falling urea prices, the profit margin of urea was compressed, approaching the level of January - February [18]. 4. Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - **Agricultural Production Conditions**: In 2024, the national grain sown area increased by 0.3%. With the improvement of agricultural conditions, more attention is paid to increasing grain yield per unit area. The demand for autumn fertilizers such as wheat base fertilizer is gradually being released [23]. - **Autumn Harvest Progress**: The autumn harvest is progressing steadily across the country, and the sowing of winter wheat in Gansu has begun [28]. 5. Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - **Compound Fertilizer**: In Q3, the compound fertilizer operating rate first rose and then fell, currently at 37 - 39%. From January - September 2025, the output was 3849 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65 tons or 1.72%. The inventory is at a historical high but is showing a slight downward trend [33]. - **Melamine**: The consumption in the building materials and home furnishing market first increased and then decreased. The operating rate of melamine enterprises is 55.76%. From January - August 2025, the production was 103.58 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.29 tons, while exports increased by 2.5 tons [39]. - **Desulfurization and Denitrification**: From January - July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of thermal power generation increased by 0.76 billion kilowatts year - on - year. However, the total thermal power generation from January - August decreased by 0.51% year - on - year [44]. 6. Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - **Export Volume**: From January - August 2025, China's total fertilizer exports were 2792 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. Urea exports were 144 tons, a year - on - year increase of 492.3%. The port inventory of urea is at a historical high [47]. 7. Urea Inventory Level Analysis - **Enterprise Inventory**: The urea enterprise inventory is at 119.5 tons, mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and other regions [49]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts and Delivery**: There are currently 7211 registered warehouse receipts, totaling 14.422 tons of urea. The delivery volume of the 2509 contract increased by 6.408 tons year - on - year, with an average delivery price of 1643 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.71% year - on - year [49]. 8. Urea后市行情展望 - **Supply**: In Q4, urea supply is expected to maintain a growth rate of 8 - 12% year - on - year, with the daily output potentially reaching a new high [51]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand awaits the spread of autumn fertilization; industrial demand shows narrow fluctuations; and export demand is expected to be released in October - November [51]. - **Market Outlook**: In the long - term, urea prices are under pressure due to supply. In the short - term, there may be pulse - type price increases. Attention should be paid to the support level of the 01 contract and potential positive spread opportunities [51].

Report Title - "Industrial Macroeconomics Favors Copper Prices, Focus on Domestic Policies - October Copper Monthly Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, copper prices showed a strong trend with a monthly increase of 4.96%. As of September 30, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 83,350 yuan/ton. With potential domestic policies in October and current mine - end disturbances and macro - level positives, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly [5]. - Technically, the operating center of Shanghai copper has been continuously rising, with a short - term operating range of 81,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton and a potential upward breakthrough trend [83]. - Considering macro and fundamental factors, copper prices are expected to remain high in October, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [89][90]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, Shanghai copper prices were strong. At the beginning of the month, the domestic macro - environment was warm, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut due to the cooling of the US employment market and in - line CPI boosted copper prices. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, copper prices slightly corrected. Supply disruptions from the Freeport Indonesia mining area and shortages in copper concentrates, along with reduced refined copper production in September and low inventories, supported copper prices [5]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomics - In the US, the August CPI showed a slight increase, and inflation pressure remained. The slowdown in employment led the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The September non - farm data has not been released, and the ADP employment data declined, indicating a weak employment market [9][12]. - The US manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service industry was stagnant. The US dollar index weakened due to the interest rate cut, and Treasury yields rose significantly [14]. Domestic Macroeconomics - In China, the CPI turned negative in August, and the PPI showed improvement. The social financing scale increased year - on - year, and local government special bond issuance was front - loaded in 2025 [16]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI improved, and the overall economy maintained an expansion trend. Fixed - asset investment and industrial added - value showed certain growth [18]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine - end Supply - From January to July, the global copper concentrate production was stable, but the Freeport Indonesia mining area's accident disrupted supply, and the fourth - quarter production and sales of the Grasberg mine are expected to decline significantly. Domestic copper concentrate port inventories are at a low level [28]. Smelting End - The copper concentrate spot smelting fee (TC) remained at a historical low, and the processing fees for domestic and imported copper also decreased, indicating a tight supply of copper mines [30]. Refined Copper - In September, the production of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month due to smelter maintenance and supply shortages of anode plates. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product, remained strong, offsetting some losses at the smelting end [32]. Import and Export - In August, China's imports of refined copper, unforged copper and copper products, and copper ore all increased year - on - year. The import profit of copper was negative, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly [35]. Scrap Copper - In August, scrap copper imports increased steadily. The spread between refined and scrap copper widened in September, leading to stockpiling by some holders [39]. Processing Links - In August, the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods showed slight changes. The overall downstream operating rate was weak, but the copper foil operating rate increased due to strong downstream demand [41][45]. Terminal Demand - From January to August, investment in power projects was stable, and the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power increased significantly [49]. - The real estate market was still at the bottoming stage in August, with a decline in completion and new construction areas. Attention should be paid to potential real - estate policies after the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [52][55]. - In August, the production of new - energy vehicles increased significantly, and policies continued to support high - level production and sales [56]. - In August, the production of household appliances showed resilience, and it is expected to maintain this trend under the influence of policies [58]. Inventory - As of October 3, SHFE copper inventories increased but remained at a low level. As of September 29, domestic social copper inventories increased month - on - month but were still near the annual low [62]. - As of September 30, COMEX copper inventories increased, LME copper inventories decreased slightly, and global visible copper inventories increased [67]. Premiums and Discounts - In September, the domestic spot premium of copper weakened, and the LME 0 - 3 discount narrowed [73]. Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of September 30, the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly, and the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased [75]. 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper has been rising, with a short - term operating range of 81,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton and a potential upward breakthrough [83]. 5. Outlook - Macroeconomic factors: The Fed's interest rate cut in September boosted copper prices. The US employment situation is not optimistic, and there may be more interest rate cuts. China's economic data has slowed down, and counter - cyclical policies are expected to be strengthened [89]. - Fundamental factors: The supply of copper mines has been disrupted, and although the supply pressure is not obvious due to imports, terminal consumption is weak. Inventories are at a low level, which supports copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain high in October [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report systematically analyzes the basis structure of China's three major stock index futures and its impact on market-neutral strategies, finding that the basis can be deconstructed into three core dimensions: time value of funds, dividend cash flow, and market sentiment expectations. By introducing the concept of "corrected basis", it more accurately reflects the real hedging cost. A-share dividends show significant seasonal characteristics and three new trends since [year]. The dividend rates of the SSE and CSI 300 indices show a "V-shaped" trend, while the dividend rate center of the CSI 500 index has shifted downward. Currently, the costs of IC and IF contracts are generally positive, while the IH contract shows a negative value. It is recommended to prioritize the allocation of IC contracts and consider the far-quarter IF contracts, and be cautious with IH contracts [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Basis Driving Factor Deconstruction and Theoretical Framework - The basis of stock index futures can be deconstructed into three core driving dimensions: the cost dimension from the time value of funds, the cash flow dimension from index component stocks' dividends, and the sentiment and expectation dimension reflecting the market's long-short power comparison. The "corrected basis" is defined by combining the time value and market sentiment expectations to simplify the analysis and focus on the core influencing factors of hedging costs [5]. II. Dividend Behavior Characteristics and Dividend Point Index Analysis - The dividend behavior of the three major index component stocks has significant seasonal characteristics, with dividends highly concentrated from [month] to [month], and [months] being the peak. Since [year], there have been three new trends in the A-share market's dividend pattern: the emergence of year-end dividends, the delay of some companies' traditional dividend dates, and the deepening of the impact of dividend behavior on stock index and derivative pricing [8]. III. Dividend Income Quantitative Calculation and Historical Trends - By comparing the yield differences between the total return index and the price index, the annual dividend income performance of the three major indices in the past five years is calculated. The SSE and CSI 300 indices show a "V-shaped" trend, while the dividend rate center of the CSI 500 index has shifted downward. The annualized dividend income of the SSE and CSI 300 indices is stable in the 2%-3% range, while that of the CSI 500 index is relatively low. The impact of dividends on futures pricing and basis structure during the concentrated dividend period cannot be ignored [10][11]. IV. Hedging Cost Time Series Analysis and Market Structure - A simplified model is used to estimate the dividend points of index component stocks and calculate the corrected basis. The far-quarter contracts of the SSE and CSI 300 stock index futures have long-term stable hedging costs around zero, and most of the time are slightly higher than the break-even point. The far-quarter contracts of the CSI 500 stock index futures also fluctuate around zero, and had better cost-benefit characteristics before [year]. The annualized hedging cost of near-month contracts has significant peaks, indicating extreme basis fluctuations near the contract expiration date, such as the abnormal peaks of over 150% observed in [year] [21]. V. Current Hedging Cost Comparison and Strategy Recommendations - From the fourth quarter of [year] to the beginning of [year], the impact of dividends on the stock index futures basis and hedging strategies has weakened. Currently, the hedging costs of IC and IF main contracts are generally positive, providing a favorable window for market-neutral strategies. IC and IF contracts have relatively low hedging costs, while IH contracts have relatively high costs. It is recommended to prioritize the allocation of IC contracts and consider the far-quarter IF contracts, and be cautious with IH contracts [22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "liquidity-driven bull" market continues, with growth stocks outperforming. In Q3, the A-share market showed a pattern of rising and then fluctuating. Looking ahead to Q4, the core support logic for the market's upward movement remains unchanged. If there are no unexpected negative factors, the market still has room to expand upwards after the phased adjustment. The two core driving forces are the continuation of the loose liquidity environment and the continuous support from the policy side [3][61]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Economy - **CPI**: Monthly CPI was flat year-on-year, mainly dragged down by the food component, while the core CPI continued to rise year-on-year. The prices of industrial consumer goods and services were stronger than seasonal trends, driving the monthly CPI to rise month-on-month [13]. - **PPI**: Monthly PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline remaining the same. The anti-involution policy has limited impact on price improvement, highlighting the need for more demand-side policy support [14]. - **Export**: Monthly exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year and decreased by 1.0% month-on-month. The "rush to export" effect was an important factor for the acceleration of exports. Exports to the EU and ASEAN provided main support [16]. - **Consumption and Real Estate**: The growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales declined, and the real estate market continued to weaken. The real estate demand still needs to be boosted, and the prices of second-hand and new houses are diverging [18]. - **Manufacturing**: The monthly manufacturing PMI rose by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, staying in the expansion range for two consecutive months. There was structural differentiation in sub - indicators, and the cost pressure on mid - and downstream enterprises remained [20]. - **Monetary Policy**: The subsequent monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" tone, focusing more on the use of structural tools. There may be a small interest rate cut in Q4, and the possibility of the central bank resuming treasury bond trading operations within the year has increased [23]. Market Review - **A-share Performance**: At the beginning of the month, the A-share market had a slight correction, and the risk appetite of investors fluctuated. Since the middle of the month, the main indexes showed different trends. The market capitalization was active, and the margin trading balance reached a record high [29]. - **Industry Performance**: As of the end of the month, among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, the power equipment industry led the market with a 21.17% increase, and more than 60% of the industries recorded declines, showing obvious industry differentiation [30]. - **Market Style**: Growth-style indexes led the rise, and mid - cap stocks performed particularly well. The market showed a preference for growth sectors [32]. - **Liquidity**: During a certain period, the average daily trading volume of the A-share market increased month-on-month, and the newly established partial - stock fund shares also increased, indicating active market liquidity [38]. - **Market Sentiment**: The trading enthusiasm of the A-share market remained high, and the risk appetite gradually recovered in the middle of the month. The main funds were concentrated in high - growth sectors, and the margin trading balance continued to rise [41][42]. Private Equity Strategy - **Basis Analysis**: Monthly basis fluctuations were significant, with the first half showing convergence and the second half widening, which affected neutral strategies [47]. - **Performance of Private Equity Sub - strategies**: In a certain month, all private equity strategies achieved positive returns. Long - only strategies and arbitrage strategies ranked among the top [50]. - **Index Enhancement Strategy**: The excess returns of different index enhancement strategies showed significant differentiation. Mid - and small - cap index enhancement strategies led the way in the long term, and different strategies responded differently to market environments [53][54]. - **Market Neutral Strategy**: The environment for the neutral strategy improved in a certain month. The average return of the market neutral strategy was 0.5%, and about 83.87% of the products achieved positive returns [59]. Future Outlook The A-share market in Q3 showed a pattern of rising and then fluctuating. In Q4, if there are no unexpected negative factors, the market still has room to expand upwards, supported by the loose liquidity environment and policy support [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In October, steel prices are expected to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on rebar RB2601 around 3000. The signal requires continuous inventory reduction of steel products or the emergence of macro - positive news. The decline space of finished products is limited due to low valuation, while raw materials have relatively high valuation and greater downward pressure [3][57]. Summary by Directory 01 Review: Futures Oscillated, Finished Products Weaker than Raw Materials - **Black - Spot**: In September, black spot prices showed a differentiated trend. Finished products had a reverse N - shaped trend with little change in price month - on - month. Among raw materials, coke prices fell, coking coal rose significantly, scrap steel was stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore first rose and then fell [8]. - **Black - Futures**: In September, black futures prices first fell, then rebounded, and then fell again. Finished products were weaker than raw materials. Rebar and hot - rolled coil closed down month - on - month, with hot - rolled coil having a larger decline. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar narrowed. Among raw materials, iron ore and coking coal prices fell by about 1%, and coke prices declined slightly [11]. - **Futures Market**: In September, precious metal prices rose significantly, while most other commodities prices fell [14]. 02 Outlook: Concerns about October Demand, Fundamentals Still Under Pressure - **Overseas Macro**: On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, officially starting a new round of interest - rate cuts. On September 29, Trump announced tariffs on imported softwood logs, lumber, cabinets, etc. The EU plans to impose 25% - 50% tariffs on Chinese steel and related products in the coming weeks [19]. - **Domestic Economy**: From January to August 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with infrastructure investment growing by 2.0%, manufacturing investment by 5.1%, and real estate development investment falling by 12.9%. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year. The total value of goods imports and exports was 29.5696 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with exports growing by 6.9% and imports falling by 1.2% [22]. - **Demand - Infrastructure**: From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.1%. The national government - funded budget revenue decreased by 1.4%, and the expenditure increased by 30%. As of the 38th week (9/15 - 9/21), the cumulative net financing of national debt + new local bond issuance was 9.7 trillion, with a progress of 81.9%, exceeding the same period last year. Infrastructure investment growth has been negative for two consecutive months [23]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, housing construction area decreased by 9.3%, new housing construction area decreased by 19.5%, commercial housing sales area decreased by 4.7%, and housing completion area decreased by 17% [26]. - **Demand - Manufacturing**: From January to August 2025, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.3%, and in July it was - 0.3%, contracting for two consecutive months. In September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [33]. - **Demand - Import and Export**: From January to August 2025, China exported 77.49 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and imported 3.98 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. The net steel export was 73.51 million tons, an increase of 7.56 million tons or 11.5%. Steel billet exports were 9.24 million tons, an increase of 6.88 million tons or 292% [37]. - **Supply**: From January to August 2025, China's pig iron output was 579.07 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; crude steel output was 671.81 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; rebar output was 128.68 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.3%. In August, rebar output was 15.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6% [38][43]. - **Profit**: The immediate profits of long - and short - process rebar steel mills declined. According to Mysteel research, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills decreased slowly, and the latest data was 58.01%, still at a high level in recent years. The long - process profit per ton of steel was 139 yuan, and the short - process profit per ton of steel at flat - rate electricity was - 60 yuan [46][47]. - **Supply - Demand Deduction**: The "Golden September" for steel was lackluster, and there are concerns about the "Silver October". It is expected that steel demand in October will hardly improve significantly. Steel mills may need to cut production to smoothly reduce inventory. Once the hot metal output declines, the supply - demand of raw materials will turn loose [50][52]. 03 Strategy: Prices Weak First and Then Strong, Wait for Opportunities to Go Long - **Futures Valuation**: As prices declined at the end of September, rebar futures prices were lower than the valley - rate electricity cost of electric arc furnaces and the long - process cost, with a relatively low static valuation [54]. - **Strategy**: In September, black prices showed a reverse N - shaped trend and closed down month - on - month. In October, steel demand is expected to be difficult to improve significantly. Steel mills may need to cut production to reduce inventory. Once the hot metal output declines, the supply - demand of raw materials will turn loose. Due to low valuation, the decline space of finished products is limited, while raw materials have relatively high valuation and greater downward pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around the low point in early September. It is expected that prices will be weak first and then strong in October. Focus on opportunities to go long on rebar RB2601 around 3000, with signals including continuous inventory reduction of steel products or the emergence of macro - positive news [56][57].