1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling last week, with the weekly line closing as a doji with an upper shadow. The short - term technical signals were favorable during the week but were suppressed by the fundamental reality. With the implementation of the production line shutdown plan, the futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. In the future, there is no strong positive expectation in the short and medium - term. The replenishment sentiment of the mid - and downstream is low at the end of the year, and the demand may continue to weaken. Considering the relatively high inventory and the delivery pressure in the near - month contracts, it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options on the glass 01 contract until expiration or look for short - selling opportunities when the 01 contract briefly rallies, with a reference range of 1140 - 1150 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that the glass futures price was affected by the production line shutdown and fundamental suppression last week. In the future, due to weak demand and high inventory, the market is expected to be weak and volatile. The recommended operations are to hold out - of - the - money call options on the glass 01 contract until expiration or short - sell on rallies [3]. 3.2 Market Review - Price - **Spot price**: As of November 7, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1140 yuan/ton (+20) in Central China, and 1240 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. - **Futures price**: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1091 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan for the week [11]. 3.3 Market Review - Spread - **Soda - glass spread**: As of November 7, the soda futures price was 1210 yuan, the glass futures price was 1091 yuan, and the spread between them was 119 yuan/ton (-23). - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was 49 yuan/ton (+62). - **Contract spread**: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 134 yuan/ton (+15) [12][17]. 3.4 Profit - **Natural gas process**: The cost was 1574 yuan/ton (-2), and the gross profit was - 334 yuan/ton (-8). - **Coal - gas process**: The cost was 1211 yuan/ton (+24), and the gross profit was - 81 yuan/ton (-24). - **Petroleum coke process**: The cost was 1092 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was 48 yuan/ton (+18). - **Fuel prices**: On November 7, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 170 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 672 yuan/ton [20]. 3.5 Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 157,505 tons/day (-2650), with 222 production lines in operation. There were multiple production line changes including shutdowns, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [22][24]. 3.6 Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6313.6 million weight boxes (-265.4). Inventories in different regions showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [27]. 3.7 Deep - processing - On November 6, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 114% (unchanged). On November 7, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.8% (+0.5%). In mid - October, the available order days for glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (-0.1) [28]. 3.8 Demand - Automobile - In September, China's automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 461,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 480,000 vehicles. Sales were 3.226 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 369,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 417,000 vehicles. In September, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.296 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 57.8% [39]. 3.9 Demand - Real Estate - In September, China's real estate completion area was 34.3534 million m² (unchanged year - on - year), new construction area was 55.9831 million m² (-15% year - on - year), construction area was 54.7081 million m² (-16% year - on - year), and commercial housing sales area was 85.3087 million m² (-12% year - on - year). From October 27 to November 2, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.03 million m², a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 38%. In September, the real estate development investment was 739.652 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21% [45]. 3.10 Cost - Soda Ash - Price - As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were: 1325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1210 yuan/ton (-15), and the basis of the soda ash Central China 01 contract was 90 yuan/ton (+15) [47][52]. 3.11 Cost - Soda Ash - Profit - As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda ash enterprises was 1359 yuan/ton (+7), and the gross profit was - 44 yuan/ton (-2); the cost of the combined production method was 1791 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 174 yuan/ton (-9). Other prices included the Hubei synthetic ammonia market price of 2250 yuan/ton (+65) and the Xuzhou Fengcheng ammonium chloride wet ammonium ex - factory price of 300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [55][56]. 3.12 Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory - Last weekend, the exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts were 8314 pieces (-237). As of September 25, the total national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 171.42 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.22 million tons), including 89.96 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 1.32 million tons) and 81.46 million tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 million tons). Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 74.68 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 million tons), including 41.48 million tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 million tons) and 33.2 million tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 million tons) [68][69]. 3.13 Cost - Soda Ash - Apparent Demand - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 40.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.63 million tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 33.30 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.32 million tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65%. In October, the inventory of sample float glass factories was equivalent to 21.6 days of soda ash consumption [73][76].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Medium to long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Sell call options [1][9] - Copper: Exit long positions at high levels or range - bound short - term trading [1][12] - Aluminum: Suggest buying on dips [1] - Nickel: Suggest waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies [1][18] - Tin: Range trading [1][19] - Gold: Range trading [1][20] - Silver: Range trading [1][20] - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 4700 level pressure for 01 contract [22][23] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 2400 level pressure for 01 contract [24] - Soda ash: Bearish for 01 contract [1][34] - Styrene: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 6500 level pressure [26][27] - Rubber: Range - bound, focus on the 15000 level support [27][28] - Urea: Range - bound [29] - Methanol: Range - bound [30][32] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound, L2601 focus on 6900 support, PP2601 focus on 6600 support [32][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [37] - PTA: Low - level range - bound, focus on the 4400 - 4700 range [37][38] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [1][38] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [1][38] - Hogs: Rebound under pressure [1][40] - Eggs: Rebound under pressure [1][41] - Corn: Bottom - building in a range [44][46] - Soybean meal: Rebound from low levels [1][46] - Oils: Palm oil weak, soybean oil strong, high - level adjustment [47][52] Core Views - The market is in a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies after the Sino - US trade negotiations, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session. The stock index and bond market may enter a range - bound stage. The black building materials market has a tight supply - demand pattern and rising prices. The non - ferrous metals market is affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and policies, with different trends for each metal. The energy and chemical market is generally under pressure due to factors like high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. The cotton - spinning and agricultural livestock markets also show different trends based on supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [5][8][12] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Index: In a range - bound stage, waiting for new changes at the end of the year. Consider the rotation of technology mainlines and the impact of inflation recovery. Medium to long - term optimistic, buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: In a stage without a clear core logic. Focus on the entry of allocation funds and the central bank's actions. Range - bound [5] Black building materials - Double - coking coal: Market shows tight supply - demand and rising prices. Range - bound [7][8] - Rebar: Low - valuation, with limited downside space. Range - bound, consider buying on dips for RB2601 at 2975 - 3000 [8] - Glass: Supply decreases, but demand is weak. Suggest selling call options for 01 contract [9][10] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: High - level range - bound. Supply is tight, but high prices suppress demand. Consider exiting long positions at high levels or range - bound short - term trading [12][13] - Aluminum: High - level range - bound. Supply and demand are both affected by multiple factors. Suggest waiting and seeing [13][15] - Nickel: Range - bound. Supply may be loose, and demand is weak. Suggest waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies [18] - Tin: Range - bound. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. Focus on the 27 - 29.5 million yuan/ton range for the 12 - contract [19][20] - Gold and silver: Range - bound. Affected by factors such as the US government shutdown, employment, and interest - rate expectations. Focus on the specified contract ranges [20][21] Energy and chemical - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. Focus on the 4700 level pressure for 01 contract [22][23] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias. Affected by alumina inventory and supply. Focus on the 2400 level pressure for 01 contract [24][26] - Soda ash: Bearish for 01 contract. Supply is excessive, and demand is weak [34][36] - Styrene: Range - bound with a weak bias. Affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand. Focus on the 6500 level pressure [26][27] - Rubber: Range - bound. Supply decreases seasonally, and demand is stable. Focus on the 15000 level support [27][28] - Urea: Range - bound. Supply decreases, and demand increases. Focus on the 1600 - 1700 range for 01 contract [29] - Methanol: Range - bound. Supply is tight in some areas, and demand is weak. Focus on the 2000 - 2330 range for 01 contract [30][32] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound. Supply pressure increases, and demand is weak. L2601 focus on 6900 support, PP2601 focus on 6600 support [32][33] Cotton - spinning - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound. Affected by global supply - demand and Sino - US trade negotiations [37] - PTA: Low - level range - bound. Affected by oil prices and supply - demand. Focus on the 4400 - 4700 range [37][38] - Apples: Weakly range - bound. New - season trading is in the later stage, and demand is weak [38] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound. Procurement is inactive, and prices are weak [38] Agricultural livestock - Hogs: Rebound under pressure. Supply is high in the short - term, and capacity reduction is slow in the long - term. Different strategies for different contracts [40] - Eggs: Rebound under pressure. Supply is high in the long - term, and demand is weak. Different strategies for different contracts [41][43] - Corn: Bottom - building in a range. Supply is sufficient in the short - term, and demand is weak. Focus on the 2050 - 2170 range for 01 contract [44][46] - Soybean meal: Rebound from low levels. Affected by US soybean supply - demand and domestic压榨 profit. Consider relevant strategies [46] - Oils: Palm oil weak, soybean oil strong, high - level adjustment. Affected by factors such as supply - demand and policies. Focus on support levels and consider arbitrage strategies [47][52]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the fruit industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [3][5][6][7][36] Core View - For apples, the new - season late Fuji ground trading is gradually ending, with trading concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. The warehousing work is in the later stage. The sales area has a weak trading atmosphere, with fewer arrivals and pressure on the demand side, so the price is expected to be under pressure. For dates, in the Xinjiang main - producing areas, the acquisition in some areas is over, and the picking progress in others is 3 - 40%. Affected by the double - decline of the futures and spot prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants has weakened. With new fruits on the market and consumption falling short of expectations, the price is under pressure [9][39] Summary by Directory Apple 1. Weekly View - The new - season late Fuji ground trading is winding up, concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. Warehousing is in the later stage. In Shandong's Qixia and Zhaoyuan, not all apples have been picked, with many merchants and striped apples on the market. Fruit farmers mostly sell at the market price. In terms of warehousing progress, Gansu has basically completed, Shaanxi is near the end, and in Shandong's Qixia, farmers' apples are still being warehoused in large quantities. The sales area has a weak trading atmosphere, fewer arrivals, and pressure on the demand side, so the price is expected to be under pressure [9] 2. Market Review - This week, the apple main contract oscillated and pulled back. The apple basis was - 102 yuan, an increase of 268 compared to last week [13] 3. Apple Wholesale Market Price Trend - As of October 31, 2025, the wholesale price of all - variety apples was 9.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg from last week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from last week. Recently, the spot price of Fuji apples has been oscillating downward [16] 4. Apple Main - producing Areas Situation - In Shandong, the price of 85 first - and second - grade slice - red apples is 4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade is 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade half is 3.3 - 3.5 yuan/jin, and the general goods are 2.0 - 3.0 yuan/jin, priced according to quality. In Shaanxi, in Luochuan, the price of more than 70 semi - commercial apples is around 3.7 - 4.2 yuan/jin, and more than 70 general goods are 3.3 - 3.6 yuan/jin. In Baishui, more than 70 general goods start at 2.8 - 3.3 yuan/jin, and more than 70 semi - commercial is around 3.5 yuan/jin. Labor costs are high during the peak labor - using period [19] 5. Cold Storage Situation Analysis - As of November 5, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main - producing areas was 6.9842 million tons, 1.1502 million tons lower than the same period last year (8.1344 million tons on November 6, 2024), a decrease of 14.14%. Since warehousing in some main - producing areas is still ongoing, this inventory only reflects the current national warehousing progress, not the final peak [21] 6. Sales Area Market Summary - In the South China market, the number of early - morning arrivals at the Guangdong Chalong market decreased significantly compared to last week, with an average of about 24 arrivals per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late Fuji in baskets is 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes is 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan late Fuji in baskets starting from 70 is 4.0 - 5.5 yuan/jin, and Jingning late Fuji in boxes starting from 70 is 5.8 - 7.5 yuan/jin. Currently, the prices of the goods vary, the purchasing enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers is average, the overall sales of new - season late Fuji are slow, and there is pressure on daily digestion, with some backlog in the transit warehouse [24] 7. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - In the 2025 - 2026 production season, during the acquisition stage, the profit statistics for 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia have been suspended [28] 8. Substitute Price Analysis - As of the 45th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.10 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg compared to the 44th week. Most of the six kinds of fruits rose this week. The average wholesale prices of pineapples, Fuji apples, Kyoho grapes, Ya pears, and watermelons increased by 0.12 yuan/kg, 0.01 yuan/kg, 0.08 yuan/kg, 0.08 yuan/kg respectively compared to the 44th week; the average wholesale price of bananas decreased by 0.14 yuan/kg compared to the 44th week [31] Date 1. Weekly View - In the Xinjiang main - producing areas, the acquisition in Hotan and Qiemo is over, and the picking progress in Ruoqiang, Alar, and Aksu is 3 - 40%. The price of general goods in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar is 6.00 - 7.80 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last week. Affected by the double - decline of the futures and spot prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in Xinjiang has weakened. In the Hebei sales area, the price has been slightly adjusted down. This week, the average price of super - grade dates in Hebei is 10.32 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.23 yuan/kg from last week; the average price of first - grade dates is 9.31 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from last week. With new fruits on the market and consumption falling short of expectations, the price is under pressure [39] 2. Market Review - The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in Xinjiang is low, mostly waiting for the concentrated picking. The sellers' price - holding sentiment has loosened, and the price has slightly decreased. In the main - producing area of Aksu, the mainstream price of general goods is 6.00 - 7.00 yuan/kg, in Alar it is 6.30 - 7.50 yuan/kg, in Kashgar it is 6.90 - 7.50 yuan/kg, in Ruoqiang it is 8.50 - 10.00 yuan/kg, in Hotan it is 8.00 - 8.50 yuan/kg, and in Qiemo it is 7.50 - 8.50 yuan/kg. The acquisition in Hotan and Qiemo is basically over. The raw material acquisition in the producing area is priced according to quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price. The picking progress in the producing area is about 30% [42] 3. Spot Price Trend - In Hebei's Cui'erzhuang, the price range for super - grade dates is 11.50 - 12.50 yuan/kg, for super - grade new dates is 11.50 yuan/kg, for first - grade is 8.80 - 9.30 yuan/kg, for first - grade new dates is 10.20 - 10.60 yuan/kg, for second - grade is 7.60 - 8.20 yuan/kg, and for third - grade is 6.30 - 6.80 yuan/kg. In the Henan market, the spot price of dates has been adjusted down by 0.20 yuan/kg this week. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, the average daily arrival of goods is 4 trucks, an increase of 1 truck from last week. The market supply is sufficient, the price has been slightly adjusted down by 0.20 - 0.30 yuan/kg, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is average, and the market acceptance of new dates with higher prices is low [47] 4. Inventory Data - According to the research data of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.06% and a year - on - year increase of 131.35%. The inventory of sample points has increased. With the continuous decline of the futures price, the spot - futures companies have increased their point - price shipments. Merchants are more active in purchasing old dates with high cost - performance, and their enthusiasm for purchasing new - season raw materials in the producing area has weakened. The producing area has entered the concentrated picking stage. Attention should be paid to the changes in the purchasing enthusiasm and purchasing structure of buyers. The supply of goods in the sales area has increased, and downstream customers mostly wait and purchase as needed [49] 5. Sales Area Market Profit Analysis - The average acquisition price of grey dates in the Xinjiang main - producing area is 5.33 yuan/kg (2024 production season). The 2025 new season has not seen concentrated picking yet. The price of first - grade finished dates in the Hebei sales area is 8.80 - 9.30 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 680 - 700 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is equivalent to 1.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.35 yuan/kg from last week [52]

宏观产业利好共振，铜价冲高震荡 11月铜月报 2025-11-7 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 p 10月铜价大幅上涨，月涨幅4.69%，截至10月31日沪铜收盘价为87010元/吨。中美元首会谈叠加贸易磋商达成协议给市场带来信心，中美关税风险减弱， 国内十五五规划建议提振市场情绪。俄乌冲突停火预期，叠加美联储降息提振有色金属价格，宏观利好整体释放。基本面上，铜矿紧缺扰动下支撑中长期铜 价，国内电解铜产出继续下滑。10月冶炼厂检修叠加阳极铜较难采购影响下国内电解铜产量环比继续下滑，有色协会产能天花板倡议下铜供应有减弱预期。 国内消费因高铜价受到抑制，下游需求整体偏弱，但长期新能源、电力及AI算力需求支撑仍存。宏观利好释放叠加基本面支撑较强，铜价整体偏强运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 25-11-06 25-10-31 25-10-27 25-10-21 25-10-15 25-10-09 25-09-25 25-09-19 25-09-1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Stocks are favored in the medium to long term, buy on dips; bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coke and coking coal are expected to trade sideways; rebar is recommended to buy on dips; glass is advised to sell call options [1][8][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to close long positions at high levels or trade short - term within a range; aluminum is advised to buy on dips; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are advised to trade within a range [1][13][21] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract is advised to take a short - selling approach [1][23][39] - **Cotton Textile Industry**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is expected to trade at a low level with fluctuations [1][40] - **Agricultural and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are expected to face resistance in rebounds; corn is expected to build a bottom with fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; oils are expected to adjust at a high level [1][44][57] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their respective fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as production, consumption, inventory, cost, and policy changes to analyze the market trends of different industries and recommends corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: In the medium to long term, it is optimistic, and investors are advised to buy on dips. Currently, it may trade sideways as the market enters a vacuum period after events and lacks a clear catalyst [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. The bond market has priced in previous factors, and future trends depend on the entry of allocation funds and the central bank's actions [6] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: It is expected to trade sideways. The coal market has a tight supply - demand situation and rising prices, with improved sentiment [8][9] - **Rebar**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The price is at a relatively low valuation, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened recently [9] - **Glass**: It is advised to sell call options. The supply - demand pattern is poor, with high inventory and weak demand, and the technical indicators are bearish [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to trade at a high level with fluctuations. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, but the short - term supply of electrolytic copper is stable, and high prices suppress downstream demand [13][14] - **Aluminum**: It is recommended to take a cautious approach. The production capacity and inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum have changed, and the demand is affected by the season and high prices [14] - **Nickel**: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The supply of nickel ore may become more abundant, and the refined nickel market is in an oversupply situation [19] - **Tin**: It is advised to trade within a range. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak, but the price has support [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are advised to trade within a range. Affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy and economic data, they are in an adjustment phase in the short term but have support in the medium term [21][22] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade weakly with fluctuations. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export growth may not be sustainable [23][24] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade weakly with fluctuations. The price is under pressure from alumina inventory and production, and the cost is affected by chlorine [26][27] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade weakly with fluctuations. The cost is under pressure, the supply - demand is loose, and the overall market is weak [28] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade sideways. The supply is affected by the production season, and the demand is weak, with high inventory [30] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade within a range. The supply decreases due to maintenance, and the demand increases from agriculture and compound fertilizers [31] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade within a range. The supply is affected by maintenance, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [33][34] - **Polyolefins**: PE is expected to trade within a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly. The supply is affected by new production and maintenance, and the demand has seasonal characteristics [34][35] - **Soda Ash**: The 01 contract is advised to take a short - selling approach. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak, although the cost has increased [38][39] Cotton Textile Industry - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to trade sideways. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the price is affected by the purchase price and trade negotiations [40] - **PTA**: It is expected to trade at a low level with fluctuations. The supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is affected by crude oil and fundamentals [40][41] Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The 01 contract may face resistance in rebounds, and the 03 and 05 contracts are expected to have a lower price center. The supply is large in the first half of next year, and the demand is in the off - season [44] - **Eggs**: The 12 - contract is advised to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade within a range. The supply is abundant in the short term, and the long - term supply pressure is still large [46] - **Corn**: The 01 contract is expected to build a bottom with fluctuations. The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, but the cost has support in the long term [47][49] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to rebound from a low level. The domestic supply and demand may tighten, and the price is affected by the US soybean market [50] - **Oils**: They are expected to adjust at a high level. The short - term price is under pressure, but there is support below. Different oil products have different performance characteristics [51][57]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long - term and suggest buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; Glass suggests selling call options [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests exiting long positions at high levels or range short - term trading; Aluminum suggests buying on dips; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver suggest range trading [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade in a range; Soda ash's 01 contract suggests a bearish approach [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade in a range; PTA is expected to trade at a low level; Apples and jujubes are expected to trade weakly [1] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Pigs and eggs are expected to face resistance in rebounds; Corn is expected to trade weakly; Soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; Oils are expected to trade weakly [1] Core Views - After the end of Sino - US trade negotiations, the third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, lacking catalysts for direction, so it will enter a period of consolidation [5] - The main trading line of the Treasury bond market is not over, but the market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations, and the motivation for the market to drive yields down continuously is not strong [5] - The coal market shows a pattern of tight supply and demand and rising prices, with a positive sentiment. The supply of coking coal and rebar may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the prices are expected to be stable and strong in the short term [8] - The glass market has a poor supply - demand pattern, with high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract [10] - The copper market is affected by macro and fundamental factors. In the short term, it is expected to remain high - level volatile, and long positions should be exited at high levels [11] - The aluminum market may face a correction after the previous over - rise, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions at high levels [12] - The nickel market has an uncertain supply due to new policies, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies moderately [17] - The tin market has an expected improvement in supply and weak downstream consumption. It is recommended to trade in a range [18] - The precious metal market, including gold and silver, is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven demand, but is in a short - term adjustment period. It is recommended to trade in a range [19] - The PVC, caustic soda, and styrene markets are expected to be weak and volatile, mainly due to factors such as high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports [22][25][26] - The rubber market has insufficient cost support and a bearish sentiment due to inventory accumulation. The price is expected to continue to decline [28] - The urea market has a short - term rising price center due to factors such as reduced supply and increased demand, and it is recommended to trade in a range [30] - The methanol market has a limited rebound space due to factors such as tight local supply, weak downstream demand, and high inventory [32] - The polyolefin market has a certain cost support, but the upward pressure is large due to insufficient supply - demand improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels [33] - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish approach for the 01 contract [37] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to trade in a range due to factors such as increased global production and consumption and a decline in inventory [37] - The PTA market is expected to trade at a low level due to factors such as weak oil prices and supply - demand inventory accumulation [39] - The apple and jujube markets are expected to decline due to factors such as reduced quality and weak consumption [39][40] - The pig market has a high supply in the short - term and is expected to have a high supply in the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust positions according to different contracts [43] - The egg market has a large premium of the futures price over the spot price, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly [44] - The corn market is expected to build a bottom through consolidation, and it is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [47] - The soybean meal market is expected to rebound from a low level, and it is recommended to adjust positions according to price performance [49] - The oil market is expected to be volatile at a low level, with differences in performance among varieties. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and arbitrage opportunities [54] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - shares opened low and closed high. After the end of major events, the market enters a vacuum period and is expected to trade in a range. It is bullish in the medium to long - term and suggests buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts declined. The market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market has tight supply and demand and rising prices. The supply may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the price is expected to be stable and strong in the short term [8] - **Rebar**: The futures price of rebar declined. The static valuation is neutral to low, and the demand has recovered while the inventory has continued to decline. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract [8] - **Glass**: The glass market has a poor supply - demand pattern, with high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract and wait until after the new year to consider the 05 contract [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price reached a record high and then declined. It is affected by macro and fundamental factors. In the short term, it is expected to remain high - level volatile, and long positions should be exited at high levels or trade in a short - term range [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of Guinea's bauxite is stable, and the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has changed. The demand is weakening, and the inventory is being depleted. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high levels for different products [12] - **Nickel**: Indonesia has adjusted the RKAB policy, which may affect the supply of nickel ore. The supply of refined nickel is in surplus, and the price of nickel iron is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies moderately [17] - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production has decreased, and the supply of tin ore is expected to improve. The downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to supply and demand [18] - **Silver and Gold**: After the Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut, the precious metal market is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven demand, but is in a short - term adjustment period. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to US ADP employment data [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The PVC market has high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 4700 level [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is affected by alumina production and inventory. It is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 2400 level [25] - **Styrene**: The styrene market is affected by factors such as oil prices and pure benzene supply. It is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 6500 level [26] - **Rubber**: The rubber market has insufficient cost support and a bearish sentiment due to inventory accumulation. The price is expected to continue to decline [28] - **Urea**: The urea market has a short - term rising price center due to factors such as reduced supply and increased demand. It is recommended to trade in a range of 1600 - 1700 for the 01 contract [30] - **Methanol**: The methanol market has a limited rebound space due to factors such as tight local supply, weak downstream demand, and high inventory. It is recommended to trade in a range of 2230 - 2330 for the 01 contract [32] - **Polyolefin**: The polyolefin market has a certain cost support, but the upward pressure is large due to insufficient supply - demand improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to the 6900 and 6600 support levels for PE and PP respectively [33] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish approach for the 01 contract [37] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand have changed, with increased production and consumption and a decline in inventory. The price of seed cotton is high, and it is expected to trade in a range [37] - **PTA**: The PTA market is affected by oil prices and supply - demand inventory accumulation. It is expected to trade in a range of 4400 - 4700 [39] - **Apple and Jujube**: The apple and jujube markets are affected by factors such as reduced quality and weak consumption. The prices are expected to decline [39][40] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: The pig market has a high supply in the short - term and is expected to have a high supply in the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust positions according to different contracts and pay attention to secondary fattening and group enterprise sales [43] - **Eggs**: The egg market has a large premium of the futures price over the spot price, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and weather [44] - **Corn**: The corn market is affected by new grain listing and supply - demand factors. It is expected to build a bottom through consolidation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 2050 - 2170 range and 3 - 5 positive arbitrage [47] - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the reduction of US soybean import tariffs and the expected adjustment of the US soybean supply - demand report. It is recommended to adjust positions according to price performance [49] - **Oils**: The oil market is affected by factors such as the supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. It is expected to be volatile at a low level, and it is recommended to pay attention to support levels and arbitrage opportunities [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended for selling call options [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is advised to close long positions at high levels or engage in range short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to move sideways. Soda ash 01 contract follows a short - selling mindset [1][23][24][34] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to move sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples and jujubes are in weak oscillation [1][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs face pressure in rebounds; Corn is in a bottom - building oscillation; Soybean meal rebounds from a low level; Oils are in weak oscillation [1][41][48][49] 2. Core Views - The market is in a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies after the Sino - US trade negotiation, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, so it will oscillate to wait for new changes at the end of the year [6] - The main trading line of Treasury bonds is not over, but the market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, so it is expected to move sideways [6] - The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising steadily. The supply of coking coal may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the price of rebar is expected to have limited downside space due to low valuation [8] - The supply of glass is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor, so it is recommended to sell call options [10] - The short - term supply - demand situation of copper has limited support for prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply of aluminum may face adjustments, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [12][14] - The supply of nickel may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The supply of tin is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading [18][20] - Precious metals are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, but are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading [20][22] - The supply - demand of PVC is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of caustic soda is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][25] - The cost of benzene ethylene is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak, so it is expected to oscillate. The cost support of rubber is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate [26][28] - The supply of urea decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The supply of methanol is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high, so it is expected to oscillate [29][31] - The supply of polyolefins has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, so PE is expected to oscillate, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly [33] - The supply of soda ash is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] - The supply - demand of cotton and cotton yarn is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of PTA is in a state of inventory accumulation, and it is in low - level oscillation [37][38] - The quality of apples has declined, and consumption is weak, so the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is expected to decline [38][40] - The supply of pigs is large in the first half of next year, and prices face pressure. The supply of eggs is still large in the medium - long term, and prices face pressure [41][44] - The supply of corn is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak, so it is in a bottom - building oscillation. The price of soybean meal is supported by cost and is expected to rebound [47][48] - Oils are under pressure in the short term but have support factors, and are expected to oscillate widely [54] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: A - shares and Hong Kong stocks are generally down. The market lacks catalysts and is expected to oscillate. It is bullish in the medium - long term and recommended to buy on dips [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures have mixed performance. The market is observing the central bank's operations, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and expect sideways movement [6] 3.2 Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in coal mines [8] - **Rebar**: The price has fallen, but the low valuation limits the downside space. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract and focus on the range of 3000 - 3200 [8] - **Glass**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor. It is recommended to sell the 01 contract out - of - the - money call options and hold them until expiration [10] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high and then declined. The short - term supply - demand has limited support, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The recommended operating range of the main Shanghai copper contract is 85000 - 89000 [12][13] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is under pressure, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum may face adjustments. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [14] - **Nickel**: The supply may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of the Shanghai tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading. The reference range of the Shanghai silver 12 contract is 10700 - 11600, and that of the Shanghai gold 12 contract is 890 - 940 [20][22] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the range of 4600 - 4800 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the pressure at 2400 [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6300 - 6700 is concerned [26] - **Rubber**: The cost support is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate. The support at 15000 is concerned [28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The 01 contract range is 1600 - 1700 [29][30] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract range is 2230 - 2330 [31][32] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. PE is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the support at 6900, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly, paying attention to the support at 6600 [33] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] 3.5 Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The supply - demand is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate [37] - **PTA**: The price is in low - level oscillation, and the supply is in a state of inventory accumulation. The concerned range is 4400 - 4700 [38] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The quality of apples has declined, consumption is weak, and the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is also expected to decline [38][40] 3.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The 01 contract is under pressure due to postponed supply, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions gradually. The 03 and 05 contracts have large supply and weak demand in the first half of next year, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The 07 and 09 contracts should be carefully bottom - fishing [41] - **Eggs**: The 12 contract has a large premium over the spot, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly. The 01 contract oscillates in the range of 3250 - 3400 [43][44] - **Corn**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. It is in a bottom - building oscillation, and the 01 contract oscillates in the range of 2050 - 2170. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: It rebounds from a low level. The M2601 contract can take profit on a small scale at high levels and hold after a pullback. Spot enterprises can fix the basis from November to January at low points [48][49] - **Oils**: They are in a high - level adjustment, with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong. The 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9250 - 9350 respectively, and not chase short. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of the narrowing spread of rapeseed - soybean 01 and the widening spread of soybean - palm 01 [49][54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Stocks are expected to be volatile in the short - term with a long - term bullish view, and it is recommended to buy on dips; bonds are expected to oscillate [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are suitable for range trading; glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is in a high - level shock, suggesting to exit long positions at high levels or engage in short - term range trading; aluminum is recommended to go long on dips; nickel is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are suitable for range trading [1][11][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; soda ash's 01 contract has a short - selling strategy [1][22][25]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly stronger in a shock; PTA is in a low - level shock; apples are expected to be slightly stronger in a shock; red dates are expected to oscillate [1][39][40]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; eggs' price rebounds are under pressure; corn is in the process of bottom - building in a shock; soybean meal rebounds from a low level; oils are in a high - level adjustment with a pattern of weak palm oil and strong soybean oil [1][43][49]. Core Views The report comprehensively analyzes various futures markets. After events such as Sino - US trade negotiations, the release of quarterly reports, and the conclusion of important meetings, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, resulting in a lack of catalysts for market direction. Each sector has different supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environmental impacts, leading to different price trends and investment strategies [5]. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stocks**: After important events, the market enters a vacuum period, lacking catalysts for direction, so it will oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, it is bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Bonds**: The current bond market environment is conducive to the spread compression strategy, but there are risks in the short - end bond pricing and institutional positions. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and expect bonds to oscillate [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market has a pattern of tight supply and demand, with prices rising steadily. The supply of coal mines is reduced at the end of the month, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine production resumption on supply [8]. - **Rebar**: After the macro - events at the end of October, the black prices declined. The rebar price is at a relatively low valuation, and the demand has recovered while the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and focus on the range of 3000 - 3200 [8]. - **Glass**: The supply is at a high level, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to sell the out - of - the - money call options of the 01 contract and hold them until expiration. Consider the 05 contract after the new year [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After reaching a record high, the copper price declined. Although there are long - term positive factors such as tight supply of copper concentrates and increasing demand, the short - term high price suppresses downstream demand, and the inventory has increased. It is expected to be in a high - level shock, and it is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or engage in short - term range trading [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is under pressure, the production capacity of alumina has decreased, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum is in the transition from peak to off - peak season. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may lead to a more relaxed supply of nickel ore in the future. The refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron is restricted by the downstream stainless steel market. It is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies [18]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, but the downstream consumption is weak. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to conduct range trading and focus on the supply resumption and downstream demand [19]. - **Gold and Silver**: After the Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's interest rate cut, there are still uncertainties in the market. Supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and risk - aversion demand, they are expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the US ADP employment data [20][21]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export growth is uncertain. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract should focus on the range of 4600 - 4800 [23]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by the high inventory of alumina, the spot pressure is large. The supply is high in winter, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract should focus on the pressure at 2400 [26]. - **Styrene**: The cost is affected by the price of crude oil and pure benzene. The supply and demand are relatively weak, and it is expected to oscillate. It is necessary to focus on the price of oil, the production and import of pure benzene, etc. [27]. - **Rubber**: The cost support is insufficient, the inventory of dark - colored rubber has increased, and the market sentiment is bearish. However, the reduction in rubber tapping due to rainfall limits the downward space. It is expected to be weakly sorted in the short - term [29]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases due to increased maintenance, the agricultural demand increases, and the port inventory decreases. The price is expected to rise slightly in the short - term, and the 01 contract should focus on the range of 1600 - 1700 [30]. - **Methanol**: The supply is affected by the maintenance of devices, the cost increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract should focus on the range of 2230 - 2330 [32]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost has a certain support, the supply increases due to new production, and the demand is mainly based on rigid needs. PE is expected to oscillate in the range, and PP is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is necessary to focus on downstream demand and the price of crude oil [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to have a short - selling strategy for the 01 contract [38]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the supply and demand of global cotton are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. With the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the high price of seed cotton acquisition, it is expected to be slightly stronger in a shock [39]. - **PTA**: The price of crude oil is under pressure, the supply and demand of PTA are in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is in a low - level shock. It is necessary to focus on the range of 4400 - 4700 [39][40]. - **Apples**: The quality of apples has decreased this year, and the expected delivery cost has increased. It is expected that the price will be slightly stronger in a shock [40]. - **Red Dates**: The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short - term, the pig price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is large before the first half of next year, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to have a short - selling strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, and be cautious about bottom - fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [44]. - **Eggs**: The current inventory is large, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the future. The 12 - contract is at a premium to the spot, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 3250 - 3400 [46]. - **Corn**: The new grain is on the market, and the supply is sufficient. The price is under pressure in the short - term. In the long - term, the cost has support, and the demand is stable but weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2050 - 2170 [49]. - **Soybean Meal**: The expected increase in China's soybean purchases from the US has pushed up the price of US soybeans, and the cost has increased. Although the domestic supply is relatively abundant, the soybean meal price is expected to rise. It is recommended to take profit on the M2601 contract at high levels and continue to hold after a pullback [49]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations and production increase. Soybean oil is affected by the improvement of Sino - US relations and the expected increase in soybean imports. Rapeseed oil is in a situation of tight supply in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to focus on the support levels of different varieties and the spread trading strategies [52][54][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices reached a record high this week and then declined. Although the long - term demand outlook for copper is optimistic due to factors such as tight copper concentrate supply and increasing demand from computing power construction, short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Copper operating in the range of 85,000 - 89,000. It is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. - Aluminum prices are in a high - level upward oscillation. However, as the rainy season in Guinea ends and alumina prices weaken, there is downward pressure on ore prices. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits at high levels for aluminum - related products [2]. - Zinc prices are in a relatively strong oscillation. Although the processing fees of zinc ore have decreased, the production enthusiasm of smelters is high, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain at a high level. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will maintain an oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 23,000, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. - Lead prices are in a sideways oscillation. Supply is decreasing, but downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices. Considering the strong production and consumption demand and the temporary truce in the Sino - US trade war, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation. It is recommended to go long at low levels within the range of 17,100 - 17,800 [2]. - Nickel prices are in an intra - range oscillation and decline. The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market remains in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai Nickel operating in the range of 119,000 - 123,000; for stainless steel, it is also recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,400 - 12,900 [3]. - Tin prices are in a high - level oscillation and overall upward trend. Although tin ore supply is expected to improve, downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai Tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. - Industrial silicon prices are in an oscillatory adjustment. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products such as polysilicon and organic silicon have changed. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon storage platform and production reduction [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining certificates in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - From October 27th to November 2nd, important economic data were released. China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showed good growth. The Sino - US leaders held a meeting, and the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus on tariff and export control measures. China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the eurozone's GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations. The US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, but it is expected to face difficulties in the House of Representatives [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. 3.2 Copper - Price trend: Reached a record high and then declined, expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply of copper concentrate is tight, but short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Investment advice: Exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price trend: High - level upward oscillation, with the oscillation range broken through [46]. - Fundamental factors: The rainy season in Guinea ends, alumina prices weaken, the operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the inventory increases. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases slightly, and downstream demand is affected by the transition from peak to off - peak season [2]. - Investment advice: Reduce positions and take profits at high levels [2]. 3.4 Zinc - Price trend: Relatively strong oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc ore processing fees have decreased, smelter production enthusiasm is high, terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level [2]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [2]. 3.5 Lead - Price trend: Sideways oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is decreasing, downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices, but production and consumption demand are strong [2]. - Investment advice: Go long at low levels within the range [2]. 3.6 Nickel - Price trend: Intra - range oscillation and decline [3]. - Fundamental factors: The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market is in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation [3]. - Investment advice: Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 3.7 Tin - Price trend: High - level oscillation and overall upward trend [3]. - Fundamental factors: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumption is weak [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - Price trend: Oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Fundamental factors: The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products have changed, and the production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: Wide - range oscillation [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, downstream demand is strong, and there are uncertainties in mining certificates [3]. - Investment advice: Trade cautiously [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - After the China-US trade negotiations, third-quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, lacking catalysts for direction. It is expected to enter a period of oscillation to await new changes at the end of the year. In November, the market style is expected to rebalance and may return to a barbell structure. The stock index is expected to oscillate, and the MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate weakly [11]. - The current bond market environment is still conducive to the evolution of the spread compression strategy. However, there are still certain risks in the pricing of short-term treasury bonds being excessively lower than the policy rate and the recent increase in institutional position congestion. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation mindset and avoid excessive expectations for unilateral market trends. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate, and the MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate strongly [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - **Strategy Outlook**: The stock index is expected to oscillate within a range [10]. - **Stock Index Trend Review**: Most stocks rose, with over 3,700 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rising. The total market turnover was 2.35 trillion yuan, and the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 100 billion yuan from the previous trading day [11]. - **Core View**: After the end of relevant events, the market enters a vacuum period, lacking catalysts for direction, and is expected to oscillate. The market style in November is expected to rebalance and may return to a barbell structure. The stock index is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate weakly [11]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - **Treasury Bond Trend Review**: The 30-year main contract rose 0.42%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.04%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.02% [13]. - **Core View**: The current bond market environment is conducive to the spread compression strategy, but there are risks in short-term treasury bond pricing and institutional position congestion. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate strongly [13]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [13]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In October, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, lower than the consensus expectations of Bloomberg and Reuters. Seasonally, it fell more significantly than usual, and the absolute value was the lowest in the same period since 2013. The PMI of large enterprises also fell to 49.9%, returning to the contraction range [20]. 3.2.2 CPI - In September, the year-on-year change in the consumer price index was -0.3%, and the month-on-month change was +0.1%. The year-on-year change in the producer price index for industrial products was -2.3%, and the month-on-month change was flat. The CPI year-on-year remains negative, the year-on-year increase in the core CPI expands, gold jewelry and services are the main support for the CPI year-on-year, the year-on-year decline in the PPI narrows, and the month-on-month change is flat [23]. 3.2.3 Import and Export - In September, China's exports were $328.57 billion, imports were $238.12 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.45 billion. The significant rebound in export growth in September was mainly due to the base effect and seasonal factors. The two-year average growth rate continued to decline, and the month-on-month growth rate was weaker than the average from 2018 - 2023, indicating that the export performance in September was not as strong [24][25]. 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, both the profit growth rate and revenue growth rate rebounded. From January to August, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded rapidly to 20.4%, with a marginal increase of 21.9%. In August, industrial enterprise revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 1.0%. The increase in profit growth rate may be related to the recognition of investment income [29]. - Structurally, the rebound in profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state-owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy. From the perspective of revenue, the year-on-year growth rate of upstream manufacturing industries rebounded, while that of midstream and downstream industries declined, reflecting the impact of the "anti-involution" policy [32]. - At the end of August, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise finished product inventory fell by 0.1% to 2.3%, and the real inventory year-on-year growth rate fell by 0.9% to 5.4%. The de-stocking of real inventory was faster under the influence of the accelerated convergence of the PPI. The inventory turnover days remained the same as the previous period, and the accounts receivable turnover days increased slightly, indicating high operating pressure on enterprises [35]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In August, the production intensity declined, and the production slowdown in downstream industries was obvious. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value fell to 5.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the service production index fell to 5.6%. The year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative for the first time since 2024, confirming the differentiation of mid - level production data [38]. 3.2.6 Fixed Asset Investment - In August, the growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to decline. The estimated single - month year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment fell to -6.3%, and the central value of the single - month year-on-year growth rate of private investment fell to -7.1%. The year-on-year growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate investment all declined [41]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales fell to 3.4%, and the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales above the designated size fell to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption. The three major national subsidy categories still contributed about 40% of social retail sales growth, indicating slow growth in other consumption categories [44]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In September, the new social financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock fell to 8.7%, and after excluding government bonds, it remained flat at 5.9%. The growth rate of credit in the social financing caliber fell to 6.4%. The year-on-year decrease in social financing was mainly dragged down by government bonds and credit. The year-on-year growth of medium - and long - term household loans turned positive, but the year-on-year growth of medium - and long - term corporate loans was still lower. The M1 growth rate continued to rise, and the year-on-year growth of non - bank deposits turned negative [47].