1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry is "Cautiously Bearish," with only natural gas having a "Cautiously Bullish" rating [1][2][3][5] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, suggesting most face downward pressure due to factors like supply - demand imbalances and cost - side weakness. Natural gas is an exception, with potential price increases due to rising demand [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: Off - season supply surplus is the core driver. There are expectations of easing in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, continuous inventory build - up in the US during the consumption off - season, and plans by OPEC+ to expand production in November, increasing supply surplus pressure [1] - Strategy: Partially take profit on short positions, and focus on the range of [435 - 445] for SC [1][9] LPG - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The cost side (crude oil) is weak, downstream chemical demand is falling, the basis is weakening, supply is relatively sufficient with rising factory inventories, and downstream chemical operating rates are decreasing [1] - Strategy: Lightly short, and focus on the range of [4050 - 4150] for PG [14] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - Core View: Bearish Continuation [1] - Main Logic: Social inventory is slowly decreasing, but futures and spot prices remain weak. Imports are expected to increase, new production capacity is coming online, and although it's the demand peak season, restocking motivation is insufficient [1][18] - Strategy: Industries should sell - hedge on price increases, and hold short positions cautiously, focusing on the range of [6800 - 7000] [18] PP (Polypropylene) - Core View: Bearish Consolidation [1] - Main Logic: Short - term supply and demand are both weakening, with increased upstream device maintenance and weak demand at the end of the peak season. Oil - based cost support is insufficient, but PDH profit has improved [1][23] - Strategy: Industries should sell - hedge on price increases, hold short positions cautiously, and focus on the range of [6500 - 6700] [23] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - Core View: Bearish Consolidation [1] - Main Logic: Warehouse receipts have increased significantly, domestic demand is weak due to falling real - estate prices, export growth may not be sustainable under anti - dumping policies, and supply remains abundant [1][27] - Strategy: Given the weak supply - demand situation and low absolute prices, be cautious about short - chasing, and focus on the range of [4600 - 4800] [27] PX (Para - xylene) - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: Supply - side domestic and overseas devices have slightly reduced their loads, demand is currently weak but expected to improve. PXN and PX - MX spreads are at certain levels, and the cost side (crude oil and naphtha) is under pressure [1][28] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices, and look for opportunities to short on price increases, focusing on the range of [6280 - 6380] [29] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Devices are under planned maintenance, a new device is about to be put into operation, supply - side load is expected to rise. Downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating rates are slightly differentiated, with polyester inventory accumulating. Cost side is under pressure [2][31] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices due to low valuations and processing fees, and look for opportunities to short on price increases in the C - structured term, focusing on the range of [4390 - 4460] [32] MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Domestic devices have increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, terminal consumption has improved slightly but is under pressure. New device production and the resumption of maintenance devices have increased supply, and inventory has slightly accumulated [2][34] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on price rebounds, focusing on the range of [3970 - 4030] [35] Methanol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish, with potential long - term bullish factors [2] - Main Logic: High inventory suppresses spot prices, port basis is still weak. Supply - side domestic device maintenance has increased, and although some Iranian imports are affected, the overall supply pressure in October is still large. Demand has no obvious positive factors [2][37] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [37] Urea - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Supply is relatively abundant, demand is weak domestically but export is relatively good. Inventory is continuously accumulating and at a high level in the past five years, and cost support exists [2][41] - Strategy: The fundamental situation is weak, so hold short positions carefully, and consider lightly going long in the medium - to - long - term [2] Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously Bullish [5] - Main Logic: As the temperature drops, demand is expected to pick up, and the consumption peak season is approaching. Although the supply side is sufficient, demand support is strong [5] Asphalt - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [5] - Main Logic: Cost - side crude oil supply surplus pressure is increasing, and the price center is moving down. Asphalt supply and demand are generally loose [5] Glass - Core View: Bearish Continuation [5] - Main Logic: Real - estate prices are falling, domestic demand is weak, post - holiday factory inventory has increased, and supply is under pressure [5] Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish Continuation [5] - Main Logic: Post - holiday factory inventory has continuously increased, supply is in a loose pattern, and demand is mostly rigid [5]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美豆收获上市中美谈判声音仍存，据传阿根廷第二船豆粕可能重新进入中国市场， | | 豆粕 | | 利空市场情绪。但巴西未来十五天展望再度表现不足，豆粕低位小幅反弹。此外， | | ★ | 短线偏空整理 | 中美贸易关税仍对豆粕暂构成下档支撑作用，2800 附近短线存在支撑。但由于缺乏 | | | | 强利多驱动，豆粕暂维持偏弱整理对待，关注中美贸易后续进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | 棕榈油 | | 美豆油价格竞争以及本月前十五日马棕榈油出口数据较好暂形成多空因素交织，棕 | | | 短期震荡 | 榈油暂以高位震荡行情对待，仍可关注逢低企稳短多机会，但上行空间预计有限。 | | ★ | | | | | | 美国政府停摆导致美国农业部相关报告停更。美豆收获上市以及原油下跌拖累美 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment [2] - Silver: High-level correction [2] - Copper: High-level consolidation [2] - Zinc: Rebound and short sell [2] - Lead: Rebound [2] - Tin: Rebound [2] - Aluminum: Rebound, with pressure [2] - Nickel: Stabilize [2] - Industrial silicon: Range-bound [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [2] Core Views - The prices of gold and silver dropped significantly due to the potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the withdrawal of speculative forces. However, in the long term, gold's upward logic remains unchanged, while silver has a supply - demand gap in the long run. Copper prices are affected by the potential end of the war and inventory accumulation, but are still bullish in the long term. Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. Lead, tin, and aluminum prices show short - term rebound trends. Nickel prices are stabilizing at a low level. Industrial silicon is in a range - bound state. Polysilicon is expected to rise after a correction. Lithium carbonate is in a state of supply - demand balance and is cautiously bullish [2]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Geopolitical relaxation and profit - taking of overbought funds led to a sharp decline in gold and silver prices, with the largest decline in 12 years [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine process is full of uncertainties; the tariff atmosphere between G2 is easing; there are political changes in Japan. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for gold prices to stop falling in the short term. For silver, exit short - term positions and hold long - term positions. Long - term gold's upward logic remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level, with a V - shaped rebound during the session, and returned to the support level of 85,000 yuan [6]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, and domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to shrink. High copper prices led to inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions with trailing stop - loss protection. New long positions should wait for a pull - back to stabilize. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fluctuated and were under pressure at the 22,000 - yuan mark [9]. - **Underlying Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc smelters are actively producing. The peak season for demand is not strong, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas zinc persists [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profits on short positions and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions. Zinc is a short - side allocation in the long term [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded with pressure, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high production capacity and inventory is decreasing. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the short term, and pay attention to the operating range of the main contract [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices rebounded from a low level [16]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances have weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. Stainless steel inventory has accumulated, and terminal demand is weak [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for now, and pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption and the operating range of the main contract [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened slightly lower and fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day [20]. - **Underlying Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory has been decreasing for 9 consecutive weeks, and terminal demand is strong. There are rumors of supply - side accidents [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range of 75,500 - 77,000 yuan [22].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹表需正常回升，产量略降，库存回落，数据整体符合季节性特征。目前表观消费仍 | | 螺纹钢 ★ | 谨慎看多 | 低于去年同期，成交低迷，下游需求疲弱。铁水产量维持高位，总体供给偏高，供需向 上驱动力量有限。近期盘面的下跌体现了供需宽松的状态，连续下行后或有短期反弹。 | | | | 热卷表需回升，产量小幅下降，库存继续上升，同期偏高，超出季节性表现。目前铁水 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 产量仍较高，热卷生产利润好于螺纹，后期库存矛盾或进一步发展，表现或相对偏弱。 | | ★ | | | | | | 数据来看，铁水微降，钢厂去库，港口明显累库。但外矿发货高位放量，到货明显缩量。 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 钢企利润快速压缩，静态基本面中性偏弱。下游成材端节后库存压力逐步体现，产业负 | | ★ | | 反馈担忧加重。关注钢厂减产情况，短期矿价震荡偏弱运行。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦企利润近期较稳定，现货生产相对稳定。铁水产量维持高位运行，原料需求较佳。焦 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 炭本身供需相对平衡， ...

中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 淡季供给过剩仍为核心驱动，油价偏弱。地缘方面，消息称特朗普将与普 | | 原油 | | 京在布达佩斯会面；库存方面，进入消费淡季，美国库存连续累库；供需 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 方面，OPEC+10 月 5 日会议计划于 11 月继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | | | 渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注原油边际产量变化。策略：空单部 | | | | 分止盈。 | | | | 成本端油价偏弱，下游化工需求下降，上方承压。成本端油价走势偏弱； | | LPG | | 基差走弱，期货盘面涨幅大于现货涨幅；供给端相对充足，厂内库存上升； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下游化工开工率下降，需求端支撑下降。策略：合约换月，走势偏弱，逢 | | | | 高空。 | | | | 社库缓慢去化，夜盘再创新低，期限共振下跌。广西石化 70 万吨装置计 | | L | | 划本月底投产，四季度开工季节性回升，供给延续宽松格局。需求端旺季 | | | 空头延续 | 来临， ...

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views - Investment ratings for various metals: Gold (★★★, buy and hold), Silver (★★, hold long - term), Copper (★★, hold long - term), Zinc (★, sell on rebound), Lead (★, rebound), Tin (★, rebound), Aluminum (★, rebound), Nickel (★, stabilize), Industrial Silicon (★, range - bound), Polysilicon (★, bullish), Lithium Carbonate (★, cautiously bullish) [2] - Core views: Gold is supported by geopolitical factors and long - term positive factors; silver has short - term volatility but long - term bullish logic; copper has a supply contraction expectation in Q4 and long - term bullishness; zinc has increasing supply and decreasing demand; lead and tin have short - term rebound trends; aluminum has a short - term rebound under certain conditions; nickel is stabilizing at a low level; industrial silicon is range - bound; polysilicon is bullish; lithium carbonate is in a tight supply - demand balance and is cautiously bullish [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - G2 atmosphere may ease, but issues like the US government shutdown, Russia - Ukraine conflict, and Middle East problems are recurring, providing support for gold and silver prices [3] Fundamental Logic - Trump administration is relaxing tariffs, the US government shutdown may continue, there are changes in Japan's political situation, and gold benefits from long - term factors such as global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [4] Strategy Recommendation - Gold's long - term upward logic remains unchanged, with clear support at 960 in the domestic market. For silver, pay attention to sentiment rhythm, and short - term investors should exit and wait, while long - term positions can be held [5] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level, standing firm at the 85,000 support [7] Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, domestic copper production in Q4 may contract, downstream demand is affected, and social inventory accumulates slightly [7] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing copper long positions with trailing stop - loss, new long positions should wait for callbacks. Pay attention to support at 82,500 - 83,000 and resistance at 86,500 - 87,000. Long - term, copper is bullish [8] Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Zinc stops falling and rebounds, testing the 22,000 resistance [10] Industrial Logic - Global refined zinc supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025 - 2026, domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, demand is under pressure, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas persists [10] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term zinc short positions can take profits, wait for rebounds to re - enter. Long - term, zinc is a short - side allocation in the sector [11] Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum price rebounds under pressure, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [13] Industrial Logic - There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, and alumina is in an oversupply situation in the short term [14] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term, buy aluminum on dips, pay attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, with the main operating range of [20,500 - 21,500] [15] Group 6: Nickel Market Review - Nickel price stabilizes slightly, and stainless steel rebounds slightly [17] Industrial Logic - Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances weaken, nickel inventory accumulates, and stainless steel inventory also increases with weak terminal demand [18] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, with the main operating range of nickel at [120,000 - 122,000] [19] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opens high and moves low, oscillating horizontally throughout the day [21] Industrial Logic - Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory has declined for 9 consecutive weeks, demand is strong, and the main capital's position transfer may drive the price up [22] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions in the 2601 contract with the range of [75,700 - 77,000] [23]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美豆收获上市中美谈判声音仍存，据传阿根廷第二船豆粕可能重新进入中国市场， | | 豆粕 | | 利空市场情绪。但巴西未来十五天展望再度表现不足，豆粕低位小幅反弹。此外， | | ★ | 短线偏空整理 | 中美贸易关税仍对豆粕暂构成下档支撑作用，2800 附近短线存在支撑。但由于缺乏 | | | | 强利多驱动，豆粕暂维持偏弱整理对待，关注中美贸易后续进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | | | 美豆油价格竞争以及本月前十五日马棕榈油出口数据较好暂形成多空因素交织，棕 | | 棕榈油 ★ | 短期震荡 | 榈油暂以高位震荡行情对待，仍可关注逢低企稳短多机会，但上行空间预计有限。 | | | | 美国政府停摆导致美国农业部相关报告停更。美豆收获上市以及原油下跌拖累美豆 | | 豆油 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report maintains a cautious and bearish view on the energy and chemical industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The core drivers in the current market are the supply surplus during the off - season, accelerated global crude oil inventory accumulation, and geopolitical easing, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [8] - For various energy and chemical products, most are facing supply - demand imbalances, cost pressures, and inventory issues, resulting in a generally bearish or cautiously bearish outlook [1][2][5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Geopolitical easing, supply surplus, and inventory accumulation lead to downward pressure on oil prices [1][8] - **Logic**: OPEC + plans to expand production in November, increasing supply pressure. US inventories are rising during the consumption off - season. The IEA predicts higher supply growth and lower demand growth in 2025 - 2026 [1][9] - **Strategy**: Partially take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of SC at [430 - 440] [10] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish. Cost - end oil price drag, rising transportation cost expectations, and weakening downstream demand [1][13] - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are weakening. China's counter - measures may increase transportation costs. Supply is relatively sufficient, and downstream chemical开工率 is declining [1][13] - **Strategy**: Lightly short. Focus on the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14] L - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation. Cost support weakens, and supply remains loose [1][18] - **Logic**: New装置s are coming into operation, and the supply pattern remains loose. Demand is in the peak season, but restocking motivation is insufficient [18] - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. The market maintains a bearish trend, focusing on the range of L at [6800 - 7000] [18] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation. Rising warehouse receipts and weak cost - end oil prices [1][23] - **Logic**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, and the post - holiday inventory reduction is slow. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and there is high inventory reduction pressure in the future [23] - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of PP at [6500 - 6700] [23] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish rebound. Short - term rebound following coal prices, but supply - demand imbalance persists [1][27] - **Logic**: Short - term device maintenance leads to slight inventory reduction, but new产能 is being released, and demand faces uncertainties such as anti - dumping taxes [27] - **Strategy**: Lightly participate in short - term rebounds. Focus on the range of V at [4600 - 4800] [27] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Cost - end pressure and potential supply - demand improvement [1][28] - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are under pressure, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. PXN and PX - MX spreads are at certain levels [28] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. Focus on the range of PX at [6310 - 6410] [29] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Inventory accumulation pressure and limited upward drivers [2][31] - **Logic**: Supply - end device maintenance and new装置s are coming into operation. Terminal demand shows slight improvement, but there is inventory accumulation pressure from October to November [31] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. Focus on the range of TA at [4420 - 4480] [32] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Supply - demand looseness and low valuation [2][34] - **Logic**: Domestic装置s are increasing production, overseas装置s have slight load reduction, and inventory is accumulating. Cost - end oil prices are under pressure [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG at [4010 - 4100] [35] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. High inventory and weak fundamentals, but potential long - term opportunities [2][37] - **Logic**: High inventory suppresses prices. Supply pressure is large due to domestic装置maintenance and high import volume. Demand lacks obvious positive factors [37] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for long - position opportunities on the 01 contract at low prices [37] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Weak domestic demand and high inventory, but export support [2][41] - **Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, and domestic demand is weak. However, fertilizer exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [41] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Lightly try long positions in the medium - to - long - term. Focus on the overall market situation of urea [40][42] Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Sufficient supply and potential price decline [5] - **Logic**: US natural gas rig count is increasing, indicating sufficient supply. Although there is some demand support from temperature changes, the overall trend is bearish [5] - **Strategy**: Not specifically mentioned in the report Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish. Cost - end pressure and supply - demand imbalance [5] - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are weakening, and the growth rate of asphalt production is higher than that of demand. Demand in the north is affected by weather [5] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5] Glass - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish continuation. Weak demand and supply pressure [5] - **Logic**: There is no short - term macro - policy drive, real estate transaction area is weak, and factory inventory is increasing [5] - **Strategy**: Short - sell based on the 5 - day moving average in the short term [5] Soda Ash - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish continuation. Supply surplus and industrial hedging pressure [5] - **Logic**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, factory inventory is rising, and supply is loose. Demand is mostly for rigid needs [5] - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. In the medium - to - long - term, short on rebounds. Hold long positions on the soda - glass spread [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), the rating is "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - For iron ore, it is "Short-term Participation" [1] - For coke and coking coal, both are "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, they are "Cautiously Bullish" [1] Core Views - Steel products: Negative factors have been gradually released, and there may be a short-term rebound. Rebar shows normal seasonal characteristics but with weak downstream demand. Hot-rolled coil has an increasing inventory problem [3][4][5] - Iron ore: Supply has a short-term reduction, and the ore price remains firm. The short-term price will fluctuate, and one should pay attention to steel mill production cuts [7][8] - Coke: It fluctuates within a range following coking coal, with relatively balanced supply and demand [10][12] - Coking coal: The spot market is strong, and it will maintain range-bound operation in the medium term, with a possible short-term rebound [14][15] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The upward driving force is limited, and it is advisable to wait and see [17][19][20] Summaries by Variety Steel Products Rebar - **Variety View**: Rebar's apparent demand is rising normally, production is slightly decreasing, and inventory is falling, showing seasonal characteristics. However, the apparent consumption is still lower than last year, with weak downstream demand and high overall supply [4] - **Market Operation Suggestion**: The recent decline in the futures market reflects the loose supply-demand situation. After continuous decline, there may be a short-term rebound [5] Hot-rolled Coil - **Variety View**: The apparent demand is rising, production is slightly decreasing, but inventory is increasing, exceeding seasonal performance [4] - **Market Operation Suggestion**: With high hot metal production and better production profit than rebar, the inventory problem may worsen, and its performance may be relatively weak [5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Hot metal production is slightly decreasing, steel mills are reducing inventory, and port inventory is increasing significantly. However, there is a risk of a decline in overseas ore arrivals. The static fundamentals are moderately strong. Downstream finished product inventory pressure is emerging, and concerns about industrial negative feedback are increasing. Steel mill profits are compressed, and production enthusiasm is decreasing [8] - **Market Operation Suggestion**: Short-term participation [9] Coke - **Variety View**: Coke enterprise profits are relatively stable recently, and production is stable. With high hot metal production, raw material demand is good. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to fluctuate within a range [12] - **Market Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [13] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Coal mine production has recovered to the same level as last year, and imports remain high. Supply is expected to improve further. With high hot metal production, raw material demand is guaranteed. Short-term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and there may be a short-term rebound, with medium-term range-bound operation [15] - **Market Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [16] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Silicomanganese - **Variety View**: The supply in the production area remains at a high level. After the new round of restocking demand from downstream steel procurement is released, it is more difficult to reduce inventory in the production area [19] - **Market Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, coal prices are strong, and manganese ore prices have not significantly declined. The cost side provides some support, but the upward driving force is limited. It is advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [20] Ferrosilicon - **Variety View**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is increasing, and the number of warehouse receipts is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the situation of re-entry into the warehouse after cancellation [19] - **Market Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range following coal prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [20]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国领导人在社交媒体称将在不久后与中方会面，大豆会是主要议题，这点燃了美 | | | | 国大豆农民对出口销售的期待。国内方面，全国主要油厂豆粕成交 22.38 万吨，较 | | 豆粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 前一交易日增 18.57 万吨，开机方面，今日全国动态全样本油厂开机率为 44.47%， | | ★ | | 较前一日下降 10.71%。美豆收获上市中美谈判声音仍存，巴西降雨略有改善，缺 | | | | 乏利多驱动，豆粕偏弱整理行情，但中美贸易关税仍对豆粕暂构成下档支撑，短线 | | | | 波动有限。关注中美贸易后续进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | 棕榈油 | | 美豆油价格竞争以及本月前十五日马棕榈油出口数据较好暂形成多空因素交织，棕 | | | 短期震荡 | 榈 ...