1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish Rebound [1] - LPG: Bearish Rebound [1] - L: Bearish Rebound [1] - PP: Bearish Rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Bullish Direction [2] - Urea: Bullish - biased Consolidation [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously Bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish Rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish Continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish Continuation [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The geopolitical risks in the energy and chemical industries have been priced in, and the subsequent geopolitical trends in the Middle East and South America should be closely monitored. The overall supply in the industry is relatively abundant, and the demand is affected by seasonal factors and geopolitical situations. Some products are in a bearish rebound or consolidation state, while others are facing downward pressure in the medium - to long - term [1][2][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight, oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.19%, Brent up 1.60%, and SC up 2.34% [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, Middle East geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariff threat led to a rebound in oil prices. In the long - term, due to oversupply during the off - season and the expansion of OPEC + production, oil prices are under downward pressure [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East led to a short - term rebound in oil prices. Iran's current floating crude oil inventory is about 170 million barrels. India's fuel consumption in December reached a record high. As of January 2, US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic crude oil reserve increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, OPEC +'s production increase will push oil prices into a low - price range. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC + regions. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but in the long - term, it is under pressure. Focus on the SC range of [445 - 460] [12]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 14, the PG main contract closed at 4308 yuan/ton, up 1.22% month - on - month [14]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it rebounds with oil prices, and in the long - term, oil prices are under pressure. The refinery's production decreased, but the downstream chemical demand has resilience, and the inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: From a supply - demand perspective, the oversupply of upstream crude oil will lead to a downward shift in the price center. In the short - term, there is uncertainty in oil prices, and in the long - term, it is bearish. Focus on the PG range of [4200 - 4300] [16]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract had a certain increase, and the basis was repaired to the flat - water state [18]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support improved, and the basis was repaired. The proportion of Iranian imports increased, and the planned device maintenance increased, with expected production decline. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased, and the market is expected to continue to repair profits [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the L range of [6800 - 6950] [20]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract rose slightly [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances and the rush to export of acrylonitrile downstream led to the strengthening of acrylonitrile. The supply - demand is weak, and the demand enters the off - season in January. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics and focus on the PP range of [6550 - 6750] [24]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract showed a slight decline [25]. - **Basic Logic**: The cancellation of export tax rebates led to a short - term expectation of a rush to export. The domestic start - up rate increased, and the supply - demand is in a weak state. The cost support is strengthening, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the V range of [4800 - 5000] [27]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5108 yuan/ton, and the processing fee improved [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low, the supply - side device changes are small, and the overall planned maintenance volume is high. The downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The cost - side PX is in a weak balance. There is a slight accumulation of inventory from January to February, but the outlook is positive from the perspective of production and demand [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the TA05 range of [5100 - 5200] [30]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract decreased slightly [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic device load has increased, and the downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The port inventory is increasing, with inventory accumulation pressure in January. It lacks upward driving forces and follows cost fluctuations in the short - term [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop losses on short positions and pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the EG05 range of [3830 - 3899] [33]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract increased with reduced positions [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas methanol device loads have increased. The supply - side pressure still exists, and the demand has slightly improved. The cost support is weak and stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downward space is limited [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the MA05 range of [2270 - 2310] [38]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR05 contract showed a certain increase [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall start - up load has increased, and the demand is weak. The winter storage is progressing steadily, but the positive impact is limited. The domestic supply - demand is loose, and there is a spring fertilizer - using trading expectation [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, but the rebound height is restricted by the increasing supply - side pressure. Focus on the UR05 range of [1780 - 1830] [42]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 14, the NG main contract closed at 3.419 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.29% month - on - month [45]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand support has decreased recently. The inventory in the US has decreased. In the winter, the demand has support, but the supply pressure leads to downward - pressured prices [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [2.725 - 3.370] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose, and the valuation is gradually returning to normal [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side oil price rebounded, and the geopolitical situation in South America and the Middle East should be monitored. The supply - demand is generally loose, and the demand has entered the off - season [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. Focus on the BU range of [3150 - 3250] [50]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract showed a weak shock [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The inventory of traders in Shahe is at a record high, and the supply - demand is weak. The daily melting volume has increased slightly, and the profit of three processes has turned negative. The weak demand in the real estate market restricts the upward space [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract showed a weak shock [56]. - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory has increased counter - seasonally. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - to long - term. The real estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the SA range of [1180 - 1230] [58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Low - level oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level oscillation [1] 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: Uncertainties such as Fed independence, tariff issues, and geopolitical risks are high. Gold and silver have long - term strategic allocation value. The gold - silver ratio has reached a new high, and the long - term upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged [1][2][3] - **Copper**: Global copper supply is tight, and the US is siphoning global copper resources. Short - term copper prices are in high - level oscillation, with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic due to supply shortages and new demand [1][5][6] - **Zinc**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, and market sentiment dominates prices. Zinc prices are rising, and it is recommended to hold long positions and gradually take profits [1][8][9] - **Aluminum**: With overseas production cuts and domestic inventory accumulation, downstream demand is differentiated. Aluminum prices are short - term bullish [1][10][12] - **Nickel**: Indonesia has reduced its nickel ore quota, and domestic nickel and stainless - steel inventories have decreased. Nickel prices are in a short - term rebound [1][14][16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is difficult to increase rapidly in the short - term, and demand is seasonally weak. Prices are in high - level oscillation [1][18][20] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Core View**: Long - term holding. Tariff decisions are pending, the Fed's independence is damaged, and geopolitical issues are escalating. Geopolitical premium trading continues, and central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining long - term strategic value [1] - **Market Situation**: Fed officials have different views on policies, US economic data is moderate, tariff decisions are delayed, and geopolitical risks are high. Precious metals have reached new highs [2][3] Silver - **Core View**: Long - term holding. There has been a supply - demand gap for 5 consecutive years, and global large - scale fiscal policies are beneficial to silver in the long - term [1] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is in high - level consolidation [4][5] - **Industry Logic**: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, and the US is siphoning global copper resources. High copper prices suppress demand, but new demand in some fields is strong [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term high - level oscillation, external - strong and internal - weak. Hold existing long positions and take profits, and wait for a full correction to enter the market. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating strongly [7][8] - **Industry Logic**: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026, and domestic production increases are uncertain. Demand from traditional industries is weak, but emerging industries' demand is growing [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, and market sentiment drives prices up. Hold long positions and gradually take profits. Enterprises should actively arrange selling hedging [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure during the rebound [10][11] - **Industry Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Aluminum production is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Downstream demand is differentiated. Alumina supply is in surplus [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to changes in aluminum ingot social inventory [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are rebounding, and stainless - steel prices are slightly rebounding [14][15] - **Industry Logic**: Indonesia has reduced its nickel ore production target, and domestic and overseas nickel inventories are at a high level. Stainless - steel inventory is decreasing, and production is expected to increase slightly [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory changes [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 has risen and then fallen [18][19] - **Industry Logic**: Supply is difficult to increase rapidly in the short - term, and demand is seasonally weak. A short - term inventory inflection point may slow down the price increase [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: High - level oscillation in the range of [15500 - 165000] [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Decline**: For soybean meal, the short - term decline is due to the USDA's January report increasing the global soybean ending inventory, US soybean area, production, and ending inventory, which led to a fall in US soybean prices and a decline in domestic soybean meal prices. However, short - term adjustment space is limited due to cost and stocking demand [1][3]. For rapeseed meal, although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and ending inventory, the upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the expectation of canceling oil and meal tariffs led to a decline. The outcome of the China - Canada meeting from January 13 - 17th should be monitored [1][6]. - **Short - term Adjustment**: For palm oil, the short - term adjustment is because the latest announcement from Indonesia that it will not implement the B50 policy in 2026 dampened the market's bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the export and production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month. If the export data is weak, there is a risk of short - term price adjustment [1][8]. - **Short - term Rebound**: For soybean oil, the short - term rebound is supported by a decrease in domestic soybean oil inventory compared to the previous period, although it is still higher than the five - year average. The pre - holiday stocking led to good domestic spot trading. However, caution is needed when chasing long positions due to the bearish data from the US soybean side [1]. - **Short - term Weak Consolidation**: For rapeseed oil, the short - term weak consolidation is due to the expectation of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit and the possible cancellation of oil and meal tariffs, which suppresses the market's bullish sentiment. However, the tight domestic spot situation and strong basis support the market. It is advisable to wait and see before going long on rapeseed oil recently. The outcome of the China - Canada meeting should be monitored [1]. - **Rebound under Pressure**: For cotton, the short - term is expected to rebound under pressure. The January USDA data is bullish for the ICE market, and the decline in the US dollar index and the strengthening of external commodities support the cotton market, so the short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong. In China, new cotton processing is basically completed, sales progress has slowed down, and raw material inventory pressure has increased. In the short - term, the weakening support from domestic consumption entering the off - season and textile enterprises' year - end holidays should be noted. In the long - term, there is an expectation of continuous price recovery due to reduced planting and inventory replenishment [1][12]. - **Short - term Rebound**: For red dates, the short - term rebound is because although the high inventory is a significant pressure on the price rebound, the short - term bearish trend has slowed down. Against the backdrop of the peak consumption season due to the cold weather, short - term rebound opportunities can be noted. In general, a bearish attitude should be maintained due to the loose supply - demand pattern [1][14]. - **Short - term Rebound**: For live pigs, the short - term rebound is because in the first half of January, the market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, the spot price may rebound due to the entry of secondary fattening. The supply pressure will be postponed until the end of January to February. The next demand peak should be observed before the Spring Festival. For contracts, after the 01 contract enters delivery, attention should be paid to the 03 contract's performance in reflecting the spot price. The 05 contract has a weak supply - demand pattern and lacks spot price support. The 09 and 11 contracts are in a short - term data vacuum period and it is advisable to wait and see [1][18]. 3. Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of soybean meal is 2,761 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3,219.71 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of January 9, 2026, the national port soybean inventory is 802.8 million tons, a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week; the 125 oil - plant soybean inventory is 713.12 million tons, an increase of 0.40% from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory is 104.4 million tons, a decrease of 10.78% from the previous week [3]. - **Market Situation**: The January USDA report increased the global soybean ending inventory, US soybean area, production, and ending inventory, leading to a fall in US soybean prices and a decline in domestic soybean meal prices. However, short - term adjustment space is limited due to cost and stocking demand [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of rapeseed meal is 2,314 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2,493.16 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of January 9, the coastal area's main oil - plant rapeseed inventory is 6 million tons, an increase of 6 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, the same as the previous week [6]. - **Market Situation**: Although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and ending inventory, the upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the expectation of canceling oil and meal tariffs led to a decline in rapeseed meal prices. The outcome of the China - Canada meeting from January 13 - 17th should be monitored. If the negotiation fails, there may be opportunities to go long at low prices [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Price and Volume Data**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of palm oil is 8,778 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the previous day. The national average price is 8,828 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. The national daily trading volume is 100 tons, the same as the previous day [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 73.6 million tons, an increase of 0.30% from the previous week and 46.85% from the same period last year [8]. - **Market Situation**: The latest announcement from Indonesia that it will not implement the B50 policy in 2026 dampened the market's bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the export and production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month. If the export data is weak, there is a risk of short - term price adjustment [1][8]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures prices of CF2603, CF2605 (main contract), CF2609, and CF2611 are 14,800, 14,810, 14,930, and 15,035 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases. The US cotton main - continuous contract is 64.88 cents/pound, down 0.05% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The national cotton commercial inventory is 557.3 million tons, an increase of 28 million tons from the previous period. The Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory is 468.41 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons [9]. - **Market Situation**: The January USDA data is bullish for the ICE market, and the decline in the US dollar index and the strengthening of external commodities support the cotton market, so the short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong. In China, new cotton processing is basically completed, sales progress has slowed down, and raw material inventory pressure has increased. In the short - term, the weakening support from domestic consumption entering the off - season and textile enterprises' year - end holidays should be noted. In the long - term, there is an expectation of continuous price recovery due to reduced planting and inventory replenishment [1][12]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures prices of CJ2603, CJ2605 (main contract), and CJ2609 are 9,010, 9,130, and 9,320 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases. The spot prices of various grades in different regions are basically stable [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons from the previous week, but still 4,470 tons higher than the same period [14]. - **Market Situation**: The high inventory is a significant pressure on the price rebound, but the short - term bearish trend has slowed down. Against the backdrop of the peak consumption season due to the cold weather, short - term rebound opportunities can be noted. In general, a bearish attitude should be maintained due to the loose supply - demand pattern [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Price and Volume Data**: The futures prices of different contracts such as 1h2603 (main contract), 1h2605, etc. have varying increases. The national average live - pig出栏 price is 12,760 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [15]. - **Inventory and Sales Data**: The national sample - enterprise live - pig inventory is 3,847.75 (monthly), a decrease of 0.22% from the previous month; the出栏 volume is 1,233.09 million heads, an increase of 3.80%. The national fertile - sow inventory is 3,990 (monthly), a decrease of 1.12% [15]. - **Market Situation**: In the first half of January, the market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, the spot price may rebound due to the entry of secondary fattening. The supply pressure will be postponed until the end of January to February. The next demand peak should be observed before the Spring Festival. For contracts, after the 01 contract enters delivery, attention should be paid to the 03 contract's performance in reflecting the spot price. The 05 contract has a weak supply - demand pattern and lacks spot price support. The 09 and 11 contracts are in a short - term data vacuum period and it is advisable to wait and see [1][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol [2] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Ethylene glycol, natural gas [2][4] - **Bearish Rebound**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, asphalt [1][4] - **Bearish Consolidation**: PVC, glass, soda ash [1][4] - **Sideways Consolidation**: Urea [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances lead to a rebound in oil prices, but in the medium - to - long - term, supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure [1][7][9] - **LPG**: It rebounds following the cost - end oil price in the short - term, but in the medium - to - long - term, the price is expected to decline due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil [1][13][14] - **L**: The cost support improves, and the price continues to rebound. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market is expected to repair profits [1][18] - **PP**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase, and the cost end strengthens. The supply - demand is weak, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to PDH device dynamics [1][22] - **PVC**: The cancellation of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening long - term exports. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Cost support strengthens, and there is an expectation of future maintenance [1][25] - **PX/PTA**: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be good. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05 [2][27][28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Take profit on short positions and pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2][30][31] - **Methanol**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for MA05 [2][34][36] - **Urea**: The supply - side pressure increases. Although there are winter storage and spring fertilizer use expectations, be cautious about chasing up. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for UR05 [2][38][40] - **Natural Gas**: The supply side is abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. Although there is support in the demand season, the upward space is limited [4][44] - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical situation in South America leads to a shortage expectation of raw materials. The price center moves up, but there is still room for compression in the medium - to - long - term [4][48][49] - **Glass**: Short - term cold repairs support the price, but weak demand restricts the rebound space. The price fluctuates within a range [4][53] - **Soda Ash**: The demand for heavy soda weakens, and the supply is loose in the medium - to - long - term. The price fluctuates at the bottom [4][57] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On January 12, international oil prices rose. WTI increased by 2.35%, Brent by 2.18%, and SC by 1.87% [5][6] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to a rebound in oil prices. Core: In the off - season, crude oil supply exceeds demand, and global and US inventories are increasing [7][8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ production expansion puts pressure on prices. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but in the long - term, prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the range of SC [430 - 445] [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On January 12, the PG main contract closed at 4236 yuan/ton, up 0.33% month - on - month [12] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term: It rebounds following the oil price. Long - term: The oil price is under pressure, and the supply - demand is relatively stable. The inventory decreases [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price center is expected to move down. In the short - term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [14] L - **Market Review**: L05 closed at 6737 yuan/ton, up 0.9% month - on - month [16] - **Basic Logic**: The price of naphtha rises, strengthening cost support. The parking ratio increases, and production is expected to decline. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market is expected to continue to repair profits. Pay attention to the range of L [6600 - 6750] [18] PP - **Market Review**: PP05 closed at 6560 yuan/ton, up 0.7% month - on - month [20] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase the cost end. The supply - demand is weak in January, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. PDH profit compression increases the expectation of maintenance [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to PDH device dynamics. Pay attention to the range of PP [6400 - 6600] [22] PVC - **Market Review**: V05 closed at 4905 yuan/ton, down 1.3% month - on - month [23] - **Basic Logic**: The cancellation of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening long - term exports. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Cost support strengthens [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it with a positive spread between months. Pay attention to the range of V [4800 - 4950] [25] PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 5108 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the past three months [26][27] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: The processing fee improves. Supply: The overall maintenance intensity is high. Demand: It is currently good but expected to weaken. Inventory: There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05. Pay attention to the range of TA05 [5080 - 5170] [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG05 closed at 3639 yuan/ton, at a low - level position in the past six months [29] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: It is relatively low. Supply: Domestic production capacity utilization increases, and the overseas maintenance is expected to be high. Demand: It is currently good but expected to weaken. Inventory: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and pay attention to opportunities for shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG05 [3790 - 3880] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract of methanol reduces positions and rises, and the port basis weakens [34] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: It is not low. Supply: Domestic and overseas production capacity utilization increases, and there is supply pressure in January. Demand: It improves slightly. Cost: The support is weakly stable [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for MA05. Pay attention to the range of MA05 [2219 - 2269] [36] Urea - **Market Review**: UR05 closed at 1777 yuan/ton, at a high - level position this year [37][39] - **Basic Logic**: Valuation: It is not low. Supply: The overall production capacity utilization increases, and the supply pressure exists. Demand: It weakens, and winter storage has limited positive effects. Inventory: It is at a relatively high level [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Winter storage has limited positive effects, and there is an export window and spring fertilizer use expectation. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for UR05. Pay attention to the range of UR05 [1750 - 1780] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 9, the NG main contract closed at 3.169 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 6.99% month - on - month [43] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is abundant, and the recent demand is stable. The price is under pressure [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, there is demand support, but the supply is abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG [3.131 - 3.576] [44] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 11, the BU main contract closed at 3142 yuan/ton, down 0.32% month - on - month [47] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in South America lead to a shortage expectation of raw materials. The cost profit decreases, the supply decreases, and the demand increases slightly. The inventory increases [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation returns to normal, but there is still room for compression. Pay attention to risks due to the uncertainty of raw material supply. Pay attention to the range of BU [3050 - 3150] [49] Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 closed at 1143 yuan/ton, down 0.1% month - on - month [51] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term cold repairs support the price, but weak demand restricts the rebound. The supply - demand is weak, and the profit of three processes turns negative [53] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price fluctuates within a range. Pay attention to the range of FG [1100 - 1150] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 0.9% month - on - month [55] - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda weakens, the supply is loose in the medium - to - long - term, and the inventory decreases slightly [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price fluctuates at the bottom. Pay attention to the range of SA [1200 - 1250] [57]

1 豆粕：外弱内强 短期调整空间受限 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2790 | 2786 | 4 | 0. 14% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3225. 14 | 3224. 86 | 0. 28 | 0. 01% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3120 | 3100 | 20 | 0. 65% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3187.5 | 3187.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2257.5 | 2263. 75 | -6. 25 | -0. 28% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1466. 67 | ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3133 | 44 | 热卷01 | 3300 | 45 | | 螺纹05 | 3165 | 21 | 热卷05 | 3311 | 17 | | 螺纹10 | 3211 | 15 | 热卷10 | 3330 | 12 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2970 | -10 | 张家港废钢 | 2090 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3130 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3190 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3310 | 20 | 热卷:上海 | 3280 | 10 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3350 | 1 0 | 热卷:杭州 | 3330 | 20 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3500 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3290 | 10 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3380 | 20 | 热卷:成都 | 3350 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美联储独立性被重创，全球地缘问题升级。国际局势紧张，地缘溢价交易继续，流 | | ★★ | 长线持有 | 动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买 | | | | 黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。【1000-1060】 | | 白银 | | 尽管短期 COMEX 白银有较大仓位持仓抛压，但是避险、交割逻辑、资源品紧张预期 | | | 长期持有 | 持续。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做 | | ★★ | | 多逻辑不变【19000-22500】。继续关注海外市场调仓风险。 | | | | 鲍威尔面临刑事诉讼，市场担心美联储独立性丧失，美元走弱，美国虹吸全球铜资 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 源，短期铜震荡偏强，建议多单持有，回调逢低试多。中长期对铜依旧看好。沪铜 | | ★ | | | | | | 关注区间【101500，105500】 | | | | 美元走弱，伦锌拉涨超 2%，沪锌跟涨站稳 2 万 4，短期锌供需双弱，宏观和市场 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量小幅回升，需求回落较明显，库存出现增加，进入累库阶段。目前炼钢利润尚 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 可，铁水产量环比上升。钢材供需层面矛盾有限，国内政策驱动不强，总体维持区间运 行。【3130，3170】 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存绝对水平偏高，去库速度偏慢。现货相对较弱，基差在 | | ★ | | 平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压制，中期维持区间运行。【3280，3320】 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 数据来看，铁水环比再增。钢厂按需补库。外矿发货冲量结束后明显缩量，冬储补库叠 | | ★ | | 加高炉复产，矿价坚挺。【805，835】 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭第四轮提降落地，市场对第五轮提降存分歧。多轮提降落地后，焦企亏损程度加深， | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 短期焦企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略增。从需求来看，铁水产量环比增加，但下游 | | | | 补库积极性一般，按需采购为主。市场情绪反复，预计短期区间运行为主。【1730，1790】 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA, methanol: Direction看多 [2][32] - Crude oil, LPG, L, PP: Short - term rebound, bearish in the medium - long term [1][14] - PVC, glass, soda ash: Bearish consolidation [1][52][56] - Urea: Sideways consolidation [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Short - term rebound, bearish in the medium - long term [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the energy and chemical industry is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Most varieties show short - term fluctuations and medium - long - term pressure or consolidation trends [1][4] - Geopolitical factors in South America and the Middle East have a short - term impact on oil - related products, while supply - demand fundamentals play a key role in the medium - long term [7][47] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On January 9, WTI rose 2.35%, Brent rose 2.18%, and SC rose 1.87%. As of January 2, U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 7.7 million barrels to 242 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 5.6 million barrels to 129.3 million barrels [5][6][8] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and South America lead to short - term price rebounds, but the supply - demand relationship is in a state of over - supply during the off - season, and the downward pressure on oil prices is large [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing prices, and the oil price enters a low - price range. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions. In the short - term, there is a rebound, and in the medium - long term, it is under pressure. SC focuses on the range of 430 - 445 yuan/barrel [9] LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 9, the PG main contract closed at 4,222 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,390 (- 10) yuan/ton, 4,467 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and 4,840 (- 15) yuan/ton respectively [12] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it rebounds with the oil price, and in the medium - long term, the oil price is under pressure. The supply - demand side shows that the refinery start - up rate has decreased, the commodity volume has decreased, and the downstream chemical demand has certain resilience. The inventory has decreased [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, from the perspective of supply - demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to move down. The LPG price still has room for compression. Pay attention to the range of 4,200 - 4,300 yuan/ton [14] L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price was 6,628 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The weighted average profit margin was compressed to a low level in the same period [16] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support has strengthened, but the supply side is still sufficient. The demand for shed films is gradually weakening, and the agricultural film start - up rate is accelerating to decline, facing inventory reduction pressure in the future [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 6,600 - 6,750 yuan/ton [18] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price was 6,484 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0%. The weighted average profit margin has improved slightly [20] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, high - level maintenance is maintained, and the cost support has strengthened. The supply - demand side is weak in both supply and demand. The demand side enters the off - season in January, the shutdown ratio has increased to 22%, and the short - term supply pressure has been relieved. The PDH profit has been compressed to a low level, increasing the expectation of maintenance [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 6,400 - 6,550 yuan/ton [22] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 closing price was 4,905 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The main contract basis was - 255 yuan/ton [23] - **Basic Logic**: The adjustment of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening future exports. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The domestic start - up rate has increased to 80%, and the internal and external demand is in the seasonal off - season. The winter device maintenance is not sustainable, and the social inventory has reached a new historical high. However, the cost support has strengthened due to the rise in calcium carbide and thermal coal prices, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 4,700 - 4,850 yuan/ton [25] PTA - **Market Performance**: As of January 9, the TA05 closed at 5,108 yuan/ton, at the 88.9% percentile level in the past three months. The basis was - 70 (- 56) yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low, the processing fee has improved, the device maintenance intensity is relatively high, the downstream demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak, and the inventory pressure is not large but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the far - month. The cost side PX is in a weak balance [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. TA05 focuses on the range of 5,090 - 5,230 yuan/ton [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 closing price was 3,639 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The overall valuation is relatively low [29] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device load has increased, the downstream demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the social inventory has a slight increase. It lacks upward driving force and fluctuates with the cost in the short - term [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. EG05 focuses on the range of 3,820 - 3,910 yuan/ton [31] Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract has reduced positions and risen, the port basis has weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread has strengthened [34] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas device start - up rates have increased, the supply pressure still exists, the demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weakly stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downward space may be limited [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. MA05 focuses on the range of 2,230 - 2,299 yuan/ton [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The urea main contract closed at 1,777 yuan/ton, at the 78.3% percentile level this year. The weighted comprehensive profit was 57.41 (+ 59.71) yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, the comprehensive profit is good, the device start - up rate has increased, the demand is weakening, the winter storage is progressing steadily but the positive effect is relatively limited, and the social inventory is still at a relatively high level. There is a spring fertilizer - using trading expectation [38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. The rebound height is restricted by the supply - side pressure. UR05 focuses on the range of 1,755 - 1,785 yuan/ton [40] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 8, the NG main contract closed at 3.407 US dollars/million British thermal units, a month - on - month decrease of 3.35% [43] - **Basic Logic**: The short - term rebound is mainly due to the sudden accident of a U.S. energy company. The supply side is relatively abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. The demand side has support during the winter consumption peak, but the supply is relatively sufficient [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The gas price is under pressure to decline. NG focuses on the range of 3.131 - 3.576 US dollars/million British thermal units [44] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The main contract (2602) closed at 3,152 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The profit margin and the cracking spread have decreased [45] - **Basic Logic**: The raw material supply is tight and the cost has increased, but the demand has entered the off - season. The inventory has increased slightly [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. Pay attention to the risk caused by the uncertainty of the raw material supply due to South American geopolitics. BU focuses on the range of 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton [48] Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price was 1,163 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The basis was - 143 yuan/ton [50] - **Basic Logic**: The short - term device cold - repair supports the market, but the weak demand restricts the rebound space. The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, and the daily melting volume has continued to decline [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 1,100 - 1,150 yuan/ton [52] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price was 1,239 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. The basis was - 34 yuan/ton [54] - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory has started to accumulate, the demand has weakened, and the supply is in a loose pattern in the medium - long term. The real - estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased [56] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton [56]

中辉有色观点 | T | | | --- | --- | | 7 | T | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美国意欲对染指多国，地缘问题升级。近期公布的数据喜忧参半影响抵消。国际局 | | | 长线持有 | 势紧张，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑， | | ★★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。【990-1020】 | | 白银 | | 尽管短期 COMEX 白银有较大仓位持仓抛压，但是避险、交割逻辑、资源品紧张预期 | | | 长期持有 | 持续。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做 | | ★★ | | 多逻辑不变【18200-20000】。继续关注海外市场调仓风险。 | | | | 美非农数据不及预期，1 月美联储大概率不降息，特朗普关税政策和全球地缘冲突加 | | 铜 | | | | ★ | 长线持有 | 剧的预期下，美元和铜齐涨，短期铜震荡偏强，建议多单持有，回调逢低试多。中 | | | | 长期对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【99500 ...