碳酸锂周报： 供给超预期收缩，碳酸锂强势上涨 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.7.25 本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国"反内卷"持续升级，全面修订《价格法》。各行业开展反内卷行动，大宗商品市场多头氛围浓厚。欧洲央行 连续八次降息后按下暂停键，9月降息预期下滑。欧元区7月PMI升至51创近一年新高。美国7月Markit制造业PMI下降至49.5，但 整体商业活动创12月以来最快扩张。特朗普表示将对大部分国家征收15%-50%的简单关税，关税风险降低，市场风险偏好回升。 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量连续9周上升，处于近5年高位。周内关于供应端的小作文较多，江西和青海各有企业停产，其余企业 维持正常生产，部分厂家由于价格波动较大选择停售。 【需求端】7月1-20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售53.7万辆，同比去年7月同期增长23%，较上月同期下降12%，全国乘用车新能 源市场零售渗透率54.9%；7月1-20日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发51.4万辆，同比去年7月同期增长25%，较上月同期下降12%， 全国乘用车厂商新能源批发渗透率53.6%。 【成本利润】本周矿端价格环比调涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment, long-term strategic allocation [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bounce under pressure, long-term optimistic [1] - Zinc: Bounce under pressure, long-term supply increase and demand decrease [1] - Lead: Bounce under pressure [1] - Tin: Bounce under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bounce under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bounce under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - Some tariffs have been implemented, reducing the safe-haven sentiment, leading to an adjustment in gold and silver prices. However, the strong long-term support factors for gold, such as a weak US dollar, interest rate cuts, debt issuance, and central bank gold purchases, still exist [2] - The copper market is affected by a rebound in the US dollar index, with high-level consolidation. In the long term, the tight global copper ore supply and its strategic importance support a positive outlook [5] - The zinc market faces supply surplus and demand weakness during the off-season, with prices under pressure. Long-term, there are opportunities to short on rallies [8] - The aluminum market is pressured by inventory accumulation, and the price rebound is limited. Alumina also shows a similar trend [11] - The nickel market is suppressed by supply factors, and the price is under pressure. Stainless steel also faces inventory pressure during the off-season [13] - The lithium carbonate market is influenced by supply disruptions, and the price remains strong. Low-buying strategies are recommended [14] Summary by Variety Gold - **Core view**: High-level adjustment, long-term strategic allocation [1] - **Main logic**: Short-term tariff risks have landed, reducing the risk and causing a price adjustment. However, Powell's pressure, a medium-term weak US dollar trend, and loose monetary policies of multiple countries, along with continued central bank gold purchases, support long-term investment [1] - **Price range**: 770 - 794 [1] Silver - **Core view**: Bullish [1] - **Main logic**: Supported by economic demand, with increased industrial and physical demand due to loose fiscal policies. Short-term, it is affected by gold's adjustment sentiment [1] - **Price range**: 9250 - 9550 [1] Copper - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure, long-term optimistic [1] - **Main logic**: The US dollar index rebounds, and domestic social copper inventories have decreased seasonally. In the long term, the tight global copper ore supply and its strategic importance support a positive outlook [1][6] - **Price range**: Shanghai copper 78500 - 80500; London copper 9700 - 10000 USD/ton [7] Zinc - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure, long-term supply increase and demand decrease [1] - **Main logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and new smelting capacity is being released. Demand is weak during the off-season [9] - **Price range**: Shanghai zinc 22600 - 23200; London zinc 2750 - 2950 USD/ton [10] Lead - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Affected by maintenance in domestic primary lead smelters and increased losses in secondary lead enterprises, with high social inventories [1] - **Price range**: 16500 - 17200 [1] Tin - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State tin mines during the rainy season, with weak supply and demand in the domestic market and inventory accumulation [1] - **Price range**: 265000 - 273000 [1] Aluminum - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Disturbance from overseas bauxite news, inventory accumulation in domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, and weakening开工率 in the aluminum processing industry [1][11] - **Price range**: 20500 - 21000 [1] Nickel - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Stable overseas nickel ore prices, slowdown in downstream stainless steel production cuts, and inventory accumulation during the off-season [1][13] - **Price range**: 122000 - 124000 [1] Industrial Silicon - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Main logic**: The market is strongly influenced by policies, with an increase in southwest开工率 and stable demand [1] - **Price range**: 9600 - 10000 [1] Polysilicon - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Main logic**: The "sales price not lower than cost" provides strong support, with little change in fundamentals and positive market sentiment [1] - **Price range**: 51000 - 56000 [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Core view**: Bullish [1] - **Main logic**: Little change in fundamentals, sensitive to positive news, and influenced by supply disruptions. Technical indicators are strong [1][15] - **Price range**: 75000 - 80000 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][5][6] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1][7][9] - L: Cautiously bullish [1][10][12] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1][14][15] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1][17][18] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1][20][21] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1][23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1][26][27] - Glass: Cautiously bullish [2][30][31] - Soda ash: Cautiously bullish [2][32][33] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2][35][36] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2][37] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Strong reality and weak expectation, focus on OPEC's production increase and US production changes. Oil prices are in the second half of the peak season, with increasing supply - surplus pressure and a downward trend [1][5][6] - LPG: Narrow - range oil price fluctuations, recovering downstream chemical demand, and a short - term rebound in liquefied gas [7][8][9] - L: Driven by policy expectations, with short - term volatility biased upwards following policy expectations and long - term high production limiting the rebound space [10][11][12] - PP: Driven by policy expectations, following market sentiment for a rebound, with short - term volatility biased upwards and long - term third - quarter production pressure limiting the upside [14][15] - PVC: The "anti - involution" trading continues, with short - term sentiment and cost supporting the bottom, but the weak fundamental pattern limits the rebound space [17][18] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with macro - policy positives, focus on the opportunity to go long on dips [20][21] - PTA/PR: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase with new device production, and demand is weakly bottoming out. Short - term "anti - involution" policies bring supply - side positives [23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Domestic and foreign device changes are small, demand is in the off - season, and there is support from a strong basis and low inventory. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [26][27] - Glass: Fundamental improvement, with short - term macro - industrial policy expectations providing support, and the price center of the futures market moving upwards [30][31] - Soda ash: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the futures price is pulled up, but there is a large supply - surplus pressure and the market follows commodity sentiment [32][33] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, demand is improving, and the futures price is supported by macro - policy expectations and downstream alumina price trends [35][36] - Methanol: Supply - demand relationship has improved, with cost support and a bullish trend in the short term [2][37] - Urea: Production is expected to increase, demand is improving, and there are short - term macro - policy positives and export speculation possibilities [2] - Asphalt: Cost - side oil prices are weakly fluctuating, with sufficient raw material supply and bearish fundamentals [2] - Propylene: Considering the "anti - involution" trading, the sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on a single - side basis [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.20%, Brent up 0.78%, and SC up 0.08% [4] - **Basic Logic**: Weak expectation and strong reality, with OPEC's production increase pressure gradually releasing. Supply - side focuses on US production changes. EU sanctions on Russia and Norwegian production decline. Chinese imports increase, and IEA has supply - demand forecasts. US inventory data shows changes [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is in surplus, and the price range is expected to be 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, it is in narrow - range fluctuations. Light - position short positions and buying call options are recommended [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On July 24, the PG main contract closed at 3994 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [7] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side oil prices are in a narrow - range tug - of - war, and the fundamentals of LPG have improved. Downstream chemical demand is recovering, and the basis is at a high level [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the oil price center is expected to move down, and LPG prices have room for compression. In the short - term, it is bullish. Close previous short positions and go long with a light position [9] L - **Market Review**: Spot prices and futures prices have small fluctuations, with inventory accumulation and a decrease in the main contract's position [11] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based proportion is 20%, and old - capacity proportion is 14%. Short - term volatility is biased upwards following policy expectations, and long - term high production limits the rebound space [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, and industries can sell for hedging. Go long on dips in the short - term [12][13] PP - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise, and the main contract's position increases slightly. Spot prices have small fluctuations [14] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based proportion is 19%, and old - capacity proportion is 8%. Short - term volatility is biased upwards, and exports are expected to maintain high growth. Long - term third - quarter production pressure limits the upside [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close long positions, and go long on dips in the short - term [15][16] PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise, and the main contract's position decreases. Spot prices increase slightly [17] - **Basic Logic**: Old - capacity proportion is 11%. "Anti - deflation" trading continues, with weak spot price increases and a weak basis. Social inventory has increased for 5 weeks [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close long positions due to high short - term market volatility [18] PX - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [20] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand - side changes are also limited. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are macro - policy positives [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions at low levels and look for opportunities to go long on dips. The price range is [6940 - 7050] [21][22] PTA/PR - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [23] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand is weakly bottoming out. Short - term "anti - involution" policies bring supply - side positives [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [4830 - 4920] [24][25] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China decreased slightly, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [26] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign device changes are small, demand is in the off - season, and there is support from a strong basis and low inventory [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [4480 - 4600] [27][28] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes continue to rise, the futures market rises sharply, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [30] - **Basic Logic**: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations and coal - related product price increases, the fundamentals improve, and the price center of the futures market moves upwards [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close long positions after a large increase, and go long based on the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. The price range is [1310 - 1360] [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot quotes increase, the futures market rises, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increases [32] - **Basic Logic**: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the futures price is pulled up, but there is a large supply - surplus pressure and the market follows commodity sentiment [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price center moves upwards, and the moving averages tend to converge. The price range is [1410 - 1460] [32][33] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Flake - caustic spot quotes increase, the futures market rises, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is approaching saturation, demand is improving, and the futures price is supported by macro - policy expectations and downstream alumina price trends [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price center moves upwards, and the upward slope slows down. The price range is [2640 - 2710] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China decreased, and the futures price of the 09 contract decreased. The basis and month - spread changed [37] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand relationship has improved, with cost support and a bullish trend in the short term [2][37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [2470 - 2520] [2] Urea - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text - **Basic Logic**: Production is expected to increase, demand is improving, and there are short - term macro - policy positives and export speculation possibilities [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips with a light position. The price range is [1770 - 1810] [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side oil prices are weakly fluctuating, with sufficient raw material supply and bearish fundamentals [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short with a light position. The price range is [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text - **Basic Logic**: Considering the "anti - involution" trading, the sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on a single - side basis [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [6550 - 6800] [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段，油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议，该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | | | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国，该消息提振美豆价格上涨。昨日国内豆粕价格高 | | | | 位快速回落。在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双重作用下，豆粕以大区 | | | | 间行情对待。关注 8 月中美贸易新进展。主力【3000，3050】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国内市场， | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧作加籽的 | | 菜 ...

| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | 观望 | 煤炭限产消息带动黑色整体上行，市场偏暖氛围进一步加强。螺纹产量表 | | | 需环比均回升，总库存小幅下降，供需相对平衡。铁水产量小幅回落，绝 | | 螺纹钢 | 对水平仍高。政策预期之下市场情绪整体较强，但快速拉涨后短期或有反 | | | 复，观望为宜。【3280，3330】 | | 观望 | 热卷产量、表需小幅下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。近期 | | | 市场围绕宏观政策、反内卷、行业限产政策等因素进行交易，原料端大幅 | | 热卷 | 上行也推动了钢材表现偏强，快速拉涨后短期或有反复，观望为宜。【3440， | | | 3500】 | | 铁矿石 短多止盈 | 基本面看，铁水产量转降，供给端发到货双增，后续发货仍有增量。港口 | | | 增库。盘面看，前期上涨较快，后期恐有回调，关注政策预期。【780，820】 | | 焦炭 离场观望 | 现货开启第三轮提涨，第四轮提涨也已箭在弦上。煤炭限产消息提振预期， | | | 市场情绪加强。同时在行情快速拉涨后，钢厂补库也在一定程度上促使市 | | | 场心态 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High - level oscillation, long - term strategic allocation [1] - Silver: Bullish, with support shifted up [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views - The Fed's possible over - expected interest rate cut, unclear Trump's tariff policy and regional conflicts, along with continued central bank gold purchases, support the long - term bullish trend of gold, while short - term breakthrough of the previous high requires concentrated outbreak of risk factors [3] - For copper, due to the tense global copper mine situation and its status as an important strategic resource, there is long - term confidence in its price increase [7] - Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand is weak in the long term, but short - term factors support a cautious bullish view [1][9] - Aluminum prices face pressure to rebound due to factors such as increased inventory and weakening demand in the off - season [11] - Nickel prices have limited room for rebound due to factors like high inventory and weak demand in the off - season [13] - For lithium carbonate, although the short - term fundamentals have not improved significantly, the market has priced in the easing of supply - demand contradictions in advance, and there are differences between long and short positions [15] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: With increased expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and uncertain prospects of the August 1st negotiation deadline, gold and silver are at high levels [2] - **Basic Logic**: US data is weak, there are developments in US - EU tariffs, Powell is under pressure, and the Fed's possible over - expected interest rate cut, along with other factors, support the long - term bullish trend of gold [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged; silver has strong support at 9250, and a bullish approach is recommended [4] Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper price lost the 80,000 mark after briefly reaching it, with intense competition between bulls and bears at this key psychological level [6] - **Industrial Logic**: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists, electrolytic copper production is increasing, domestic social inventory is de - stocking against the season, downstream开工率 is rising, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors offsets the insufficient demand in real estate construction [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous long copper positions, and some can take profits. In the long - term, there is confidence in the rise of copper prices. The Shanghai copper price is expected to be in the range of [79000, 81000], and the London copper price in the range of [9700, 10000] US dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc price is oscillating at a high level, testing the pressure of the upper - level resistance [8] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, domestic new smelting capacity is being released, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and although the demand for galvanizing is boosted, the off - season and high prices make downstream enterprises hesitant [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous long zinc positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. New speculators should wait for a pull - back to enter. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to be in the range of [22800, 23200], and the London zinc price in the range of [2750, 2950] US dollars per ton [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices face pressure to rebound, and alumina rebounds and then falls [10] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity is increasing, inventory is rising, and demand is weakening in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in overseas bauxite supply, and the short - term supply of spot alumina is relatively tight, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventory, and the main operating range is [20300 - 21000]. Alumina is expected to face pressure during the rebound [11] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have limited rebound, and stainless steel prices face pressure during the rebound [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is uncertainty in the overseas environment, the price of nickel ore may decline, and domestic nickel supply and demand are weak, with inventory accumulating. For stainless steel, the production reduction is weakening, and inventory pressure is emerging again in the off - season [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range of nickel is [122000 - 125000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduces positions and declines by more than 4% [14] - **Industrial Logic**: In the spot market, lithium salt factories are willing to sell, and basis weakens. Although the short - term fundamentals have not improved significantly, the market has priced in the easing of supply - demand contradictions in advance, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see in the short - term, with the price range of [69000 - 73400] [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bullish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bullish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: There is a situation of strong reality and weak expectation. Pay attention to OPEC's production increase and changes in US production capacity. As OPEC+ gradually expands production, the pressure of oversupply in oil prices will gradually rise, and there is a large downward pressure on oil prices [1][4]. - LPG: The cost - end oil price is weak, downstream demand is fair, the basis is at a high level, and the downward support is gradually increasing [1]. - L: The proportion of coal - based plastics is 20%. It is less affected by anti - involution. Spot replenishment willingness is insufficient, and social inventory continues to accumulate. It mainly rebounds following market sentiment in the short term [1]. - PP: Demand follow - up is insufficient, and commercial total inventory accumulates. It rebounds following market sentiment. The export is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the future, but the production pressure in the third quarter is relatively high, which limits the upside space [1]. - PVC: The anti - involution trading continues. Short - term sentiment and cost support the bottom. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the supply - demand pattern in July tends to accumulate inventory [1]. - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. PX inventory is decreasing but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and there are recent macro - positive factors under the anti - involution policy [1]. - PTA/PR: There are relatively few changes in the device recently. The pressure on the supply side is expected to increase with the commissioning of new devices. The demand side is weakly bottoming out. It is affected by the anti - involution policy [1]. - Ethylene glycol: There are not many changes in domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices. Arrival and imports are lower than the same period. Demand is in the traditional off - season, and orders need further improvement. The basis is strong, and low inventory supports the price [1]. - Glass: The fundamentals have improved. The production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and the upstream inventory continues to decline. It is supported by anti - involution policies and coal - based production line technological transformation expectations [2]. - Soda ash: There are both device overhauls and restarts recently. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. It follows the improvement of commodity sentiment in the short term [2]. - Caustic soda: The supply is approaching saturation with the increase in production capacity utilization and the expectation of new production capacity. The demand from the main downstream alumina has recovered, but non - aluminum demand is still weak [2]. - Methanol: Domestic methanol device overhauls have led to a decline in the comprehensive operating load, but overseas devices have recovered. Demand is relatively good, and social inventory is accumulating but at a relatively low level [2]. - Urea: The resumption of overhauled devices is expected to increase daily production. Industrial demand is improving, and fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. There are short - term macro - positive policies [2]. - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is oscillating weakly, and the raw material supply is sufficient. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. The valuation is relatively high [2]. - Propylene: The spot market is weak. The futures are expected to be in a short - term sideways shock. Considering the anti - involution trading, it is cautiously bullish on the long side [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline. WTI decreased by 0.09%, Brent decreased by 1.11%, and SC decreased by 0.53% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil market shows a situation of weak expectation and strong reality. It is in the consumption peak season with some support below, but the pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually released. The EU has introduced new sanctions on Russian oil, and Norway's oil production has decreased. China's oil imports have increased, and IEA's forecast for global oil demand growth has decreased. US commercial crude inventory has decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories have increased [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, due to tariff wars, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+'s production expansion, oil supply will be in surplus, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short term, the oil price is oscillating weakly. The strategy is to lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [495 - 510] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 23, the PG main contract closed at 3972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% compared to the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4630, 4443, and 4590 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Basic Logic**: With the increase in OPEC+ production, the cost - end oil price is under pressure. The fundamentals of LPG are mixed. The basis is at a high level, and there is some support below. The PDH device profit has increased, and the supply has decreased slightly while the demand has shown different trends. Inventory in refineries and ports has increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, the upstream crude oil supply is in excess, and the LPG price still has room for compression. In the short term, the downward support is increasing, and it is expected to rebound. The strategy is to stop the loss of previous short positions. PG focuses on [3950 - 4050] [8]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of L contracts have decreased, and the main contract's trading volume has decreased. The spot price in North China has increased slightly, and the basis has strengthened [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The proportion of coal - based plastics is 20%. It is less affected by anti - involution. Spot replenishment willingness is insufficient, and social inventory continues to accumulate. The device restart is increasing, and the production is expected to increase this week. The anti - involution impact is limited, and the follow - up raw material replenishment demand after the off - season of agricultural films needs attention [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upward driving force on the fundamentals is insufficient. Part of the long positions can be stopped for profit. L focuses on [7250 - 7450] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts have increased, and the main contract's trading volume has decreased. The spot price in East China has increased slightly, and the basis has weakened [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand follow - up is insufficient, and commercial total inventory accumulates. It rebounds following market sentiment. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the planned unplanned overhauls of existing devices have increased, reducing the supply pressure. The export from January to June has increased by 21% year - on - year, and the export profit is positive. The production pressure in the third quarter is relatively high, which limits the upside space [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Part of the long positions can be stopped for profit. PP focuses on [7100 - 7250] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The prices of PVC contracts have decreased, and the main contract's trading volume has decreased slightly. The spot price in Changzhou has decreased slightly, and the basis has strengthened [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The anti - involution trading continues. Short - term sentiment and cost support the bottom. The August Formosa Plastics quotation has decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the export in June has significantly decreased. The social inventory has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, and new devices are being commissioned. The supply - demand pattern in July tends to accumulate inventory. Pay attention to the progress of India's anti - dumping tax [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Part of the long positions can be stopped for profit. V focuses on [5100 - 5400] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: The prices of PX contracts have increased. The spot price in East China has remained unchanged, and the basis has weakened [19]. - **Basic Logic**: There are not many changes in domestic and foreign devices. The processing difference is positive, and the production is stable. The demand from the downstream PTA has some changes. The supply and demand are in a tight - balance state, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a relatively high level. Under the anti - involution policy, there are recent macro - positive factors [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on [6840, 6950] [21]. PTA/PR - **Market Review**: The prices of PTA contracts have increased. The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis has strengthened [22]. - **Basic Logic**: There are relatively few changes in the device recently. The pressure on the supply side is expected to increase with the commissioning of new devices. The demand side is weakly bottoming out. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly differentiated. It is affected by the anti - involution policy, and the supply side has some positive support. Pay attention to the oil price [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focuses on [4750, 4820] [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The prices of ethylene glycol contracts have increased. The spot price in East China has decreased slightly, and the basis has weakened [25]. - **Basic Logic**: There are not many changes in domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices. Arrival and imports are lower than the same period. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and orders need further improvement. The basis is strong, and low inventory supports the price. There are recent anti - involution macro - positive factors. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on [4430, 4500] [27]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market prices have generally increased, the futures price has corrected, the basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The market is affected by the anti - involution policy expectation. The fundamentals of glass have improved, with increased production and decreased inventory. The cost is expected to increase due to the strength of coal - related products. The short - term price is boosted by macro - policies, and the inventory reduction enhances market confidence [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [1200, 1260] [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot prices of heavy soda ash are differentiated, the futures price has corrected, the basis has narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts has increased [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Affected by the anti - involution policy expectation, the glass and coal markets are stronger, which boosts the industry sentiment. The alkali plant inventory has accumulated again, reaching a new historical high. There are both device overhauls and restarts, and the supply is increasing. The downstream support is general [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is not clearly stated in the given text, but it is in the context of being cautiously bullish following the market sentiment. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of flake caustic soda has increased, the futures price has corrected, the basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is approaching saturation with the increase in production capacity utilization and the expectation of new production capacity. The demand from the main downstream alumina has recovered, but non - aluminum demand is still weak. The export scale has decreased in May [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is not clearly stated in the given text, but it is related to the cautious bullish view. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price of methanol in East China decreased, and the main contract price decreased. The basis in East China and ports has strengthened, and the month - spread has decreased [36]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol device overhauls have led to a decline in the comprehensive operating load, but overseas devices have recovered. The demand is relatively good, and the social inventory is accumulating but at a relatively low level. The coking coal has been oscillating strongly recently, and methanol is oscillating strongly in the range [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The strategy is to try to go long on dips. MA focuses on [2410 - 2490] [2]. Urea - **Market Review**: It is not clearly presented in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The overhauled urea devices are resuming production, and the daily output is expected to return to 200,000 tons. Industrial demand is improving, and agricultural fertilizer demand is weakening month - on - month, but fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. The coal price is stable, and the cost support remains. The factory inventory is decreasing, and exports are progressing smoothly [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly try to go long. UR focuses on [1760 - 1810] [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: It is not clearly presented in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is oscillating weakly, and the raw material supply is sufficient. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. The current cracking spread is at a high level, and the valuation is relatively high [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly try to go short. BU focuses on [3530 - 3630] [2]. Propylene - **Market Review**: The spot price in Shandong has decreased, and the futures volatility has decreased after the listing day. It is expected to be in a short - term sideways shock [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot market is weak. Considering the anti - involution trading, the market sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on the long side. For arbitrage, pay attention to shorting the 1 - 2 month - spread or shorting the PP processing fee [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Propylene focuses on [6500 - 6700] [2].

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3324 | -43 | 热卷01 | 3448 | -44 | | 螺纹05 | 3350 | -36 | 热卷05 | 3459 | -31 | | 螺纹10 | 3274 | -33 | 热卷10 | 3438 | -39 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 3110 | -20 | 张家港废钢 | 2140 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3260 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3410 | -10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3380 | 10 | 热卷:上海 | 3450 | -20 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3430 | 10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3500 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3480 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3480 | -10 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3430 | 1 0 | 热卷:成都 | 3570 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段，油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | | | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议，该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国，该消息提振美豆价格上涨。昨日国内豆粕价格延 | | | | 续收涨行情。前高附近及以上继续追多需注意做好仓位及风控管理。短期走势，在 | | | | 基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双重作用下，豆粕以大区间行情对待。主 | | | | 力【3030，3120】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国内市场， | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 1 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, trade negotiations, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to different trends in various metals [1][3] - Gold and silver are likely to rise due to trade uncertainties and the potential for Fed rate cuts [1][2][3] - Copper is expected to perform well in the long - term due to global copper mine shortages and strategic importance [1][6][7] - Zinc supply is abundant, limiting its upside potential in the short - term, with a long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease outlook [1][8][9] - Aluminum and nickel prices may experience short - term rebounds, but are affected by factors such as inventory and seasonal demand [1][10][11][12][13] - Lithium carbonate is expected to rise due to supply - side disruptions [1][14][15] Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: The US trade negotiations with Brazil and the EU are not going smoothly, and the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st has increased the safe - haven sentiment for gold and silver [2] - **基本逻辑**: Trump pressures the Fed to cut interest rates, the US has reached trade agreements with some countries, and there are uncertainties in the global economic and political situation. The Fed rate cuts may exceed expectations, and central banks continue to buy gold, supporting the long - term upward trend of gold [3] - **策略推荐**: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has strong support at 9250, and a bullish approach is recommended [4] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper has rebounded strongly and is consolidating around the 80,000 - yuan mark [6] - **产业逻辑**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, electrolytic copper production has increased, domestic social inventory has decreased seasonally, downstream开工率 has rebounded, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors has maintained resilience [6] - **策略推荐**: With Trump's pressure on the Fed and positive short - term macro - sentiment, it is recommended to hold existing copper long positions. In the long - term, copper is still expected to rise. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [79000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating at a high level, testing the pressure of the upper resistance [8] - **产业逻辑**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant, new smelting capacity is being released, and the processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising. The demand side is affected by the high - temperature season and the consumption off - season, and downstream enterprises are hesitant to buy at high prices [8] - **策略推荐**: Due to cost support, low inventory, and macro - sentiment stimulation, zinc has rebounded. It is recommended to hold existing long positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22800, 23200], and for London zinc is [2750, 2950] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, and alumina also shows a rebound trend [10] - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity has increased, the cost has risen, the inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream processing industry's开工率 has decreased in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea's bauxite supply, and the supply of spot alumina is relatively tight in the short - term [11] - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to wait and see with Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20300 - 21200], and alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices continue to rebound, and stainless steel also shows a rebound trend [12] - **产业逻辑**: For nickel, there are uncertainties in the overseas environment, the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline, and the domestic nickel supply - demand situation has improved slightly. For stainless steel, the production reduction is weakening, and the inventory pressure is emerging again in the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to wait and see with nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [122000 - 125000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 has increased in position and reached a new high [14] - **产业逻辑**: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are more willing to sell, and the basis has weakened. The total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand growth in the new energy vehicle market has slowed down. However, there are many supply - side disruptions, and the futures market has priced in the improvement of the supply - demand situation in advance [15] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a range of [71800 - 74000] [15]