中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 尽管数据不支持大幅度降息，但是美国政府关门风险和美联储官员鸽派表态提供支 | | | 长期持有 | 撑。降息落地但资金情绪不止，短期沪金 840 支撑。中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，降 | | ★★ | | 息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银跟随黄金波动，但同时也受到铜等其他金属情绪的支撑。全球政策刺激明显， | | | 强势走高 | 白银需求坚挺，供供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等品种波动会白银 | | ★★ | | 盘面波动有冲击。短线轻仓持有过节，长线长期持有 | | | | 宏微共振推动铜价暴涨，隔夜铜续创年内新高之后小幅回落，建议铜多单继续持有， | | 铜 | 强势走高 | 移动止盈兑现，准备空仓或轻仓过节。中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | ★★ | | | | 锌 | 弱势反弹 | 国庆长假临近，企业刚需备库，需求疲软，建议空单止盈兑现后准备空仓过节，中 | | ★ | | 长期看锌供增需减，仍是板块空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term bearish outlook**: For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, the short - term trends are either bearish or require caution. For example, soybean meal has limited upside due to harvest and inventory, while cotton is pressured by supply and weak demand [1][8][11]. - **High - level oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation due to trade disputes and inventory cycles [1]. - **Weak - oscillation in the short - term**: Palm oil and soybean oil are likely to experience weak oscillations in the short - term because of policy uncertainties and inventory concerns [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price data**: The futures price of soybean meal (main contract, daily close) is 2967 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan or 1.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3025.43 yuan/ton, up 37.43 yuan or 1.25% [2]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 898.3 million tons, down 70.30 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 694.66 million tons, down 38.54 million tons (5.26%) week - on - week, and their soybean meal inventory is 125 million tons, up 8.56 million tons (7.35%) week - on - week [3]. - **Market analysis**: US soybean harvest has started, and the short - term domestic supply is sufficient. Due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the continuous downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress during the harvest season [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price data**: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract, daily close) is 2444 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan or 2.05% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2571.58 yuan/ton, up 37.9 yuan or 1.50% [4]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 4.6 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [5]. - **Market analysis**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed shows that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations will take time, but the impact of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade limits the upside. Its trend mainly follows that of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price data**: The futures price of palm oil (main contract, daily close) is 9222 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price is 9250 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 2.04% [6]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 58.51 million tons, down 5.64 million tons (8.79%) week - on - week [7]. - **Market analysis**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy and expected inventory build - up in Malaysian palm oil in September may suppress its performance before the double festivals. It is expected to show a weak - oscillation trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to Malaysian palm oil export in September and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price data**: The futures price of cotton (CF2601, main contract) is 13530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.18% from the previous value. The domestic spot price is 15107 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **Supply - demand data**: US cotton harvest is progressing, and other northern hemisphere countries are also about to enter the harvest season, increasing supply pressure. Domestic new cotton harvest has started, and the demand performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" is not ideal, and the foreign trade outlook is weak [9][10][11]. - **Market analysis**: It is expected to maintain a pressured - oscillation market. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short - term [11]. 3.5 Jujube - **Price data**: The futures price of jujube (CJ2601, main contract) is 10970 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 1.72% from the previous value. The price of Hebei special - grade grey jujube has a slight increase [12]. - **Supply - demand data**: The estimated new - season jujube production is expected to decrease, but there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap considering the carry - over inventory. The demand in the sales area is weak [14]. - **Market analysis**: Concerns about quality are gradually easing, but there may be large price fluctuations before November. It is recommended to be cautious in trading and look for opportunities to short on price rebounds [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price data**: The futures price of live pigs (Lh2511, main contract) is 12685 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan or 0.35% from the previous value. The national average spot price is 12840 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [16]. - **Supply - demand data**: In the short - to - medium term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is gradually improving. In the long - term, the number of fertile sows is decreasing [17]. - **Market analysis**: The spot price is under pressure. In the short - term, the 11 - contract should be short - allocated on rebounds, and the inter - month reverse - spread strategy should be maintained [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][3][5] - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions initially, then suggested to close long positions [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1][10][13] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1][14][17] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish, suggest to take profit on long positions [1][18][20] Core Views - **Steel Products**: The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, with real estate and infrastructure still dragging. The supply is high, and after the macro - event is realized, the sentiment has cooled down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to trade in a range [1][3][5] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output has increased, and the supply has decreased. With pre - National Day restocking by steel mills, the fundamentals are strong in the short term, but the upward driving force is insufficient after the restocking is nearly finished [1][7][8] - **Coke**: Coke has started the first round of price increase but it is not yet finalized. The coking enterprises' profits are acceptable, and production is relatively stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to trade in a range [1][10][12] - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production is recovering, and imports are at a high level. The demand is guaranteed due to high molten iron output. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there may be policy disturbances later, and it will trade in a range [1][14][16] - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply is still high, and the subsequent destocking may be difficult. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, but high warehouse receipts suppress the price increase. After the previous rapid decline, the market may fluctuate [1][18][19] Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: The apparent demand has improved month - on - month, production is flat, and inventory continues to decline, but the destocking speed needs further observation. The overall supply of steel is high, and downstream demand is weak [1][4][5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The apparent demand has little change, production has slightly declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The overall change is small, and supply - demand is relatively stable [1][4][5] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The molten iron output has increased, and the supply has decreased. Steel mills and ports have increased their inventories, and the restocking is nearly finished. The short - term fundamentals are strong, but the upward driving force is insufficient [1][7][8] Coke - **Market Conditions**: Coke has entered the price - increase stage, with obvious game between coking enterprises and steel mills. The coking enterprises' profits are acceptable, production is relatively stable, but production has slightly decreased and inventory has increased. The demand is high due to high molten iron output, and it follows coking coal to trade in a range [1][10][12] Coking Coal - **Market Conditions**: Domestic production is recovering, approaching last year's level, and imports are at a high level. The demand is guaranteed by high molten iron output. The total inventory is increasing, and the mine inventory is transferred downstream. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there may be policy disturbances later [1][14][16] Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased but is still at a high level. After the new round of restocking demand is released, the subsequent destocking may be difficult. The cost supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited [1][18][19] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased, but the warehouse receipts are still high, suppressing the price increase. After the previous rapid decline, the market may fluctuate [1][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon [1] - **Long Position Holding**: Iron ore [1] Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: After the macro sentiment cools down, it will operate within a range. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors still act as a drag. The overall demand for steel is weak, and there is a lack of upward driving force on the supply and demand side [3][5] - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are strong due to the increase in molten iron production, the reduction in supply, and the pre-National Day restocking by steel mills [1][8] - **Coke**: It has initiated the first round of price hikes, but they have not been implemented yet. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will operate within a range following coking coal [1][12] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic production continues to recover, and the supply margin has improved. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not significant, but the supply-side policy may cause disturbances in the later stage, and it will operate within a range [1][16] - **Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and there may be difficulties in subsequent destocking in the production areas. The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent, but the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward price limit. After the rapid release of the previous downward sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][20][21] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Variety Views**: The apparent demand for rebar has improved month-on-month, production has decreased slightly, and inventory has begun to decline, but the destocking speed remains to be observed. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil has declined, and production and inventory have increased slightly, with relatively stable supply and demand [4] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: Due to limited supply and demand driving forces and the cooling of macro sentiment, both rebar and hot-rolled coil will operate within a range [5] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures, spot, basis, and spreads are provided [2] Iron Ore - **Variety Views**: The fundamentals are strong due to the increase in molten iron production, the reduction in supply, and the pre-National Day restocking by steel mills [8] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: Hold long positions [9] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of iron ore futures, spot, basis, and spreads are provided [6] Coke - **Variety Views**: It has initiated the first round of price hikes, but they have not been implemented yet. The coking enterprise profit is acceptable, and production is relatively stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will operate within a range following coking coal [12] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bearish [13] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of coke futures, spot, basis, and spreads, as well as weekly production, inventory, and profit data are provided [11] Coking Coal - **Variety Views**: The domestic production continues to recover, and the supply margin has improved. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not significant, but the supply-side policy may cause disturbances in the later stage, and it will operate within a range [16] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bearish [17] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of coking coal futures, spot, basis, and spreads, as well as weekly production, inventory, and profit data are provided [15] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Variety Views**: The fundamentals of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and there may be difficulties in subsequent destocking in the production areas. The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent, but the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward price limit [20] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: After the rapid release of the previous downward sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [21] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures, spot, basis, and spreads, as well as weekly production, inventory, and profit data are provided [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Low-level oscillation [1] - **PX**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **PTA**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Urea**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Glass**: Bearish rebound [4] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish rebound [4] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances lead to a short - term oil price rebound, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. The price may decline to around $60 in the medium - to - long term [1][6]. - **LPG**: The cost - end oil price rebounds briefly, but the supply - surplus pressure increases. The price center is expected to continue to move down [1]. - **L**: It rebounds following the cost in the short term. The fundamentals show strong supply and demand, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1]. - **PP**: The cost support improves, and the price stops falling and rebounds. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is entering the peak season [1]. - **PVC**: It rebounds due to the anti - involution sentiment in the glass industry. The price is at a low level with strong exports, but the fundamentals are supply - strong and demand - weak [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease. The inventory is still relatively high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - **PTA**: The supply - side pressure is expected to ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic device slightly increases its load, and the overseas devices change little. The consumption season is underperforming, and it is bearish with caution [39]. - **Methanol**: The supply - side pressure remains large, but the demand improves. The cost support stabilizes, and the downside space is limited [42]. - **Urea**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakly oscillating [47]. - **Natural Gas**: The U.S. natural gas inventory accumulates more than expected, causing the price to weaken, but the demand for winter storage provides some support [4]. - **Asphalt**: The cost - end oil price is weak, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply pressure increases, so the price is under pressure [4]. - **Glass**: It may be sorted at a high level in the short term. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate completion area is weak [4]. - **Soda Ash**: It rebounds following the glass. The supply is expected to be loose, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long term [4] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 2.49%, Brent rose 2.22%, and SC rose 1.47% [5] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - the oil export of the Iraq Kurdistan region to Turkey has not restarted; demand - OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand; inventory - U.S. commercial crude inventory decreased [7] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [475 - 490] for SC [8] LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4,254 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [9] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end has short - term support, but the long - term trend is downward. The demand is weakening, and the supply and inventory are increasing [11] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] for PG [12] L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,142 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [15] - **Fundamentals**: It rebounds following the cost. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is supported by the peak season of agricultural films [17] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [7,100 - 7,250] for L [17] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,877 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [20] - **Fundamentals**: The cost support improves, the supply pressure eases, and the demand enters the peak season [22] - **Strategy**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [6,830 - 6,950] for PP [22] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,919 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [25] - **Fundamentals**: It rebounds due to the glass industry. The price is low with strong exports, but the supply is strong and the demand is weak [27] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] for V [27] PX - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [29] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side devices change little, the demand - side PTA may have more maintenance in the later period, and the supply - demand balance is expected to ease [30] - **Strategy**: Stop losses on short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6,575 - 6,665] for PX511 [31] PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [32] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side pressure may ease, the "Golden September and Silver October" is underperforming, and the demand is weak [34] - **Strategy**: Stop losses on short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices and buy call options [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [38] - **Fundamentals**: The domestic device slightly increases its load, the overseas devices change little, and the consumption season is underperforming [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,250] for EG01 [40] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [41] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side pressure is large, but the demand improves, and the cost support stabilizes [42] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2,345 - 2,375] for MA01 [44] Urea - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,661 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [45] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, and the inventory is accumulating [47] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to go long on dips [48] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: As of the week ending September 12, the U.S. natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2,433 billion cubic feet [4] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory accumulates more than expected, the price weakens, but the demand for winter storage provides support [4] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not provided in the given text - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price is weak, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply pressure increases [4] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [4] Glass - **Market Performance**: Not provided in the given text - **Fundamentals**: It may be sorted at a high level in the short term. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate completion area is weak [4] - **Strategy**: Observe in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not provided in the given text - **Fundamentals**: It rebounds following the glass. The supply is expected to be loose [4] - **Strategy**: Be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long-term hold, ★★ [1] - Silver: Bullish in the long run, ★★ [1] - Copper: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Zinc: Bearish in the medium to long term, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound, ★★ [1] - Nickel: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish in the short term, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] Core Views - Gold and silver are affected by factors such as the rise of the US dollar index and US bond yields, but the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4] - Copper prices hit a new high this year due to the mine accident in Indonesia and the tight supply of copper concentrates, and the long-term outlook is positive [5][6][7] - Zinc shows a weak rebound in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases in the medium to long term [9][10] - Aluminum prices are stabilizing and rebounding, and short-term buying on dips is recommended [11][13][14] - Nickel prices are rebounding in the short term, and short-term long positions on dips are recommended [15][17][18] - Lithium carbonate has a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but the upward driving force is insufficient [19][21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The US dollar and US bond yields have risen significantly, leading to a correction in gold prices as some funds leave the market due to profit-taking [2] - **Basic Logic**: US economic data has unexpectedly improved, there are differences among Fed officials, and the US and the EU have reached a tariff agreement. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short-term correction of gold does not change the long-term trend. There may be support around 840 for gold and 10000 for silver in the short term. Long-term long positions can continue to be held [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper soared by more than 3%, hitting a new high this year [6] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the mine accident in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine is expected to lead to a significant reduction in global copper mine supply. The processing fee of copper concentrates is still deeply inverted, and the domestic electrolytic copper production may decline in September [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, gradually take profits on rallies, and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. For the long term, copper is still favored [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc showed a weak rebound, while London zinc oscillated strongly [9] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is expected to be loose in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance has increased in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. The inventory of Shanghai zinc has increased significantly, while the inventory of London zinc has continued to decline. The demand has been affected by the typhoon [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on short positions in Shanghai zinc and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the medium to long term, it is recommended to sell on rallies [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12] - **Industrial Logic**: The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum has continued to increase slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased slightly, while the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased slightly. The demand has shown a slight improvement. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded, while stainless steel prices faced pressure on the rebound [16] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of refined nickel is under pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the improvement of the peak season needs to be observed [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take short-term long positions on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with a decline at the end of the session [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the demand has received positive support. The total inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks, and the inventory of smelters is lower than that of last year [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around the 60-day moving average [72700 - 74100] [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is downward. The current domestic supply is sufficient, and factors such as Argentina's zero - tariff export policy and the U.S. soybean harvest are negative for prices. However, the continuous downward space is limited due to Sino - U.S. trade tariff issues [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal is also expected to decline in the short term. Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. Its trend mainly follows that of soybean meal, and the progress of Sino - Canadian trade needs to be monitored [1][5]. - Palm oil is expected to continue its short - term adjustment. The frequent changes in U.S. biodiesel policy and the expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may suppress its performance [1][7]. - Soybean oil will continue to adjust in the short term. The frequent changes in U.S. biodiesel policy and the approaching U.S. soybean harvest may put pressure on it. It has recently followed the adjustment of palm oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil will maintain a high - level shock. The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the domestic de - stocking cycle support its price, but the development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward movement [1]. - Cotton is recommended to be short - allocated in the short term. The increasing supply from the U.S. and other Northern Hemisphere countries, weak export demand, and the start of domestic new cotton harvesting with no obvious price - support behavior contribute to the bearish outlook [1][11]. - For jujubes, it is advisable to be cautious and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. Although the market's concerns about quality are gradually alleviated, there is still pressure after the new fruit is launched, and there may be large price fluctuations before November [1][15]. - For live pigs, the short - term 11 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rebounds, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy should be maintained. The spot market is under pressure from both supply and feed price adjustments [1][18]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.983 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 tons; the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory was 6.9466 million tons, a decrease of 385,400 tons or 5.26% from the previous week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.25 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons or 7.35% from the previous week [3]. - The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,930 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,988 yuan/ton, down 7.14 yuan or 0.24% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 46,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 17,500 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - The futures price of the main contract was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan or 2.13% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,533.68 yuan/ton, down 56.85 yuan or 2.19% [4]. Palm Oil - As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 585,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,400 tons or 8.79% [7]. - The futures price of the main contract was 9,126 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan or 0.80% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,065 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 1.23% [6]. Cotton - The U.S. cotton area's boll - opening rate reached 60%, and the harvest progress was 12%. The good - to - excellent rate decreased by 5% to 47% week - on - week, but was 10% higher than the same period [9]. - The domestic new cotton harvest progress reached 0.8%. The opening price of new cotton showed no obvious price - support behavior. The import volume of cotton resources in August was about 193,410 tons [10]. - The futures price of the main contract CF2601 was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 15,091 yuan/ton, down 69.5 yuan or 0.46% [8]. Jujubes - The main jujube - producing areas have entered the coloring and sugar - increasing stage. The estimated new - season jujube output is 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a decrease compared to previous years [14]. - The futures price of the main contract CJ2601 was 10,785 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day [12]. Live Pigs - The main contract Lh2511 was stable at 12,730 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 12,860 yuan/ton, down 0.16% [17]. - In September, the planned slaughter volume of Mysteel sample enterprises is expected to increase by 1.29% month - on - month. The long - term supply pressure may gradually ease as the inventory of fertile sows decreases [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish on px - mx [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [4] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [4] Core Views - The geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have led to a short - term rebound, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is under downward pressure [1][7][9]. - LPG is affected by the cost - end rebound and weak downstream demand, showing a weakening trend [1][12][13]. - L has improved cost support, short - term stop - falling, with strong supply and demand fundamentally but insufficient upward drive [1][18]. - PP has improved cost support, short - term stop - falling, with supply pressure expected to ease and slow - rising demand [1][23]. - PVC has good cost support and strong exports, but the supply - demand situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [1][28]. - PX's supply - demand tight - balance expectation is loosening, and it is expected to be weak [1][31][32]. - PTA's supply - side pressure may ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [2][35][36]. - Ethylene glycol's supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, but the low inventory provides some support [2][40][41]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure is still large, but the demand has improved, and the downward space may be limited [2][43][45]. - Urea's supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, and the inventory is accumulating [2][48][50]. - Natural gas in the US has seen an unexpected inventory build - up, leading to a weakening price, but the cooling weather provides some support [4]. - Asphalt is under pressure due to the weak cost - end and loose supply - demand situation [4]. - Glass has a weak reality and strong expectation, with supply under pressure and demand insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - Soda ash's supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.81%, Brent up 1.52%, and SC down 1.84% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances and unexpected inventory draw - down in the US provided short - term support, but the long - term supply is in surplus [7][8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, focus on the break - even point of shale oil new wells around $60 [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4,247 yuan/ton, down 1.07% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has a supply surplus, and the demand for downstream chemicals has weakened, with high warehouse receipts [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] yuan/ton [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,130 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, short - term stop - falling, with abundant supply and strengthening demand [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to basis repair and wait for dips to go long, focus on the range of [7,100 - 7,200] yuan/ton [18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,873 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, short - term stop - falling, with supply pressure expected to ease and rising demand [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices, do not chase short at low absolute prices, focus on the range of [6,800 - 6,950] yuan/ton [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, exports were strong, but supply was stronger than demand, and inventory was accumulating [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation, focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] yuan/ton [28]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side changes were small, demand was expected to weaken, and the supply - demand tight - balance expectation was loosening [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focus on the range of [6,515 - 6,600] yuan/ton [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PTA price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season was underperforming, and the demand was weak [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short at high prices, focus on the range of [4,550 - 4,600] yuan/ton [36]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, demand was weak, but low inventory provided some support [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,250] yuan/ton [41]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure was still large, but demand had improved, and cost support was stabilizing [43][44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract, focus on the range of [2,335 - 2,365] yuan/ton [45]. Urea - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton [47]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was relatively loose, demand was weak at home and strong abroad, and inventory was accumulating [48][49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to go long at low valuations, focus on the range of [1,650 - 1,670] yuan/ton [50]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: As of the week of September 12, the US natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2,433 billion cubic feet [4]. - **Basic Logic**: Unexpected inventory build - up led to price weakening, but cooling weather provided some support [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end was weak, supply - demand was loose, and the valuation was high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was under pressure, demand was insufficient, and inventory was expected to increase [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was expected to be loose, and demand was mostly for rigid needs [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周豆粕库存环比增加，国内短期供应充足，美豆收获临近令豆粕承压，但由于中 | | 豆粕 | | 美贸易问题支持，豆粕短线持续下跌空间亦有限，暂以大区间行情对待。阿根廷出 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 口降税至零叠加美豆收获，利空美豆及国内豆粕，昨日豆粕破位下行，短期有回补 | | | | 缺口支持的意图。看多观望为宜。关注美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 短线下跌 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且 9 月中印存在采买需求。基本 | | 棕榈油 | | 面展望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。但美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑 | | | 短线延续调整 | 美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制本月棕榈油表现。隔夜棕榈油下破 9200 元， | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is recommended for long - term holding due to Trump's attitude change on the Russia - Ukraine issue, unclear US economic prospects, large - scale gold purchases by global gold ETF funds, and multiple new highs of gold prices. The medium - and long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, and it has strategic allocation value [1]. - Silver is expected to rise strongly. It follows the upward trend of gold, with strong global policy stimulus and firm demand, and there is an obvious supply - demand gap. However, the fluctuations of gold and other varieties will impact the silver market [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to take profit on long positions before the National Day holiday due to the approaching holiday and the fermentation of risk - aversion sentiment. In the long - term, copper is still favored [1]. - Zinc is under pressure to rebound. It is recommended to take profit on short positions before the National Day holiday. In the long - term, zinc has an increasing supply and decreasing demand, and is a short - side configuration in the sector [1]. - Lead is under pressure to rebound as domestic lead - producing enterprises resume production, while the expected consumption peak is still in doubt [1]. - Tin is expected to rebound. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, there are maintenance and production stoppages in the domestic supply, and terminal consumption provides support [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure. There is an expected decrease in the arrival of bauxite from Guinea, and the destocking of aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas is not smooth [1]. - Nickel is expected to rebound. There are disturbances in the overseas Indonesian nickel ore end, and there is a certain peak - season consumption expectation in the downstream stainless - steel terminal field [1]. - Industrial silicon is under pressure to rebound. Supply decreases month - on - month while polycrystalline output increases slightly, and the inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle" [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The production schedule in September is basically the same as that in August, and the downstream silicon - wafer demand shows certain resilience [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure to rebound. Production continues to increase, but the total inventory has been decreasing for 6 consecutive weeks, and the smelter inventory is significantly lower than that of the same period last year [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Due to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation and unclear US economic prospects, gold prices have risen significantly [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump's change of stance on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, unclear US economic prospects, continuous inflow of funds (the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust has reached the highest level since August 2022), and in the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold can be bought both in the short - and long - term, with short - term support at 8400. Silver has support around 9800, but position and rhythm need to be considered when buying. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated and consolidated, closing with a doji [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In August, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates increased year - on - year, while imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased month - on - month. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is still deeply inverted, and domestic electrolytic copper production may decrease in September [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on long positions of copper and prepare for an empty or light - position holiday. In the long - term, copper is favored due to its strategic importance and the tight supply of copper concentrates. Shanghai copper is recommended to focus on the range of [78500, 81500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on the range of [9850, 10500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fell under pressure [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant. In August, imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In September, domestic smelter maintenance increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Inventory shows different trends at home and abroad, and demand is affected by the typhoon [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on short positions of Shanghai zinc and prepare for an empty or light - position holiday. In the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended. Shanghai zinc is recommended to focus on the range of [21800, 22200] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on the range of [2850, 2950] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro - level interest rate cuts are in line with expectations. The domestic production of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand of downstream processing enterprises has a slight increase. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, but the rainy season may affect the arrival volume in September, and the supply pressure increases [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20500 - 21500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel showed a rebound trend [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - level interest rate cuts are in line with expectations. In the domestic nickel industry chain, the supply of refined nickel has a large surplus pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. For stainless steel, there is still an expectation of a consumption peak season, but the actual situation needs to be observed [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short - term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [121000 - 123000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and fluctuated widely during the session, and closed slightly lower [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of lithium carbonate has not significantly shrunk, and the demand side has released a lot of positive news. The total inventory has been decreasing for 6 consecutive weeks, and the smelter inventory is significantly lower than that of the same period last year [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73000 - 74500] yuan/ton [22].