1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously chase up [3] - Ethylene glycol: Stop profit on short positions [3] - Methanol: Cautiously go long with a light position [3] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical uncertainty and oversupply are pulling the oil price, which is oscillating weakly. The cost - end oil price rebounds in the short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. The demand of various chemical products is weakening or has uncertain expectations, and the inventory situation varies, with some products facing high inventory pressure [1][9][15] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices oscillated weakly. WTI slightly rose by 0.23%, Brent decreased by 0.30%, and SC rose by 0.94% [8] - **Basic Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine geopolitics is developing towards relaxation, while the South American geopolitical uncertainty is rising. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, with global and US crude oil and refined product inventories increasing [9] - **Fundamentals**: In October, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased to 7.1 million barrels per day. The IEA expects global crude oil demand to increase by 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 barrels per day in 2026. As of the week of December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic crude oil reserves increased [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices. The technical and short - cycle trends are weak. The strategy is to increase short positions. Pay attention to SC in the range of [420 - 435] [11] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On December 17, the PG main contract closed at 4,212 yuan/ton, up 0.05% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,410 (-20) yuan/ton, 4,398 (-10) yuan/ton, and 4,490 (+30) yuan/ton respectively [14] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The oil price rebounds in the short - term but is downward in the long - term. The supply and demand side shows that refinery operations are rising, the commodity volume is recovering, and downstream chemical demand is resilient. The inventory of refineries and ports has decreased [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to move down. The cost - end rebounds in the short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. The strategy is to hold short positions. Pay attention to PG in the range of [4050 - 4150] [16] 3.3 L - **Market Review**: L05 basis is - 96 yuan/ton, L15 is - 43 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 11,332 [19] - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weakening, and the sharp decline of North China's spot price has led to a significant weakening of the basis. The supply and demand are both weak. The parking ratio has slightly increased to 15%, and the LL weighted gross profit has been compressed to a low level. The supply is still sufficient. The peak season of shed film is ending, and the agricultural film operating rate is declining rapidly. The enterprise inventory has increased slightly, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, the price is at a low level, and some short positions can stop profit. In the long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Pay attention to L in the range of [6350 - 6500] [20] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: PP05 basis is - 80 yuan/ton, PP15 spread is - 77 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 10,534 [22] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts continue to be cancelled, and high inventory restricts the rebound space. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices. In December, demand is entering the off - season, the parking ratio has dropped to 16%, and there are insufficient maintenance plans in the future. The PDH profit has been compressed to a low level, increasing the expectation of maintenance [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions; in the long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Short the MTO05. Pay attention to PP in the range of [6200 - 6300] [23] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: V05 basis is - 280 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 113,074 [26] - **Basic Logic**: The operation rate and inventory have decreased slightly. The inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches is still at a high level, and the domestic and foreign demand is in the seasonal off - season. The contradiction of oversupply is difficult to ease, but the northwest self - supplied calcium carbide process devices are losing cash flow. Pay attention to the device dynamics [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, partially stop profit on long positions; in the long - term, wait for continuous inventory reduction and try to go long on pullbacks. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to V in the range of [4600 - 4800] [27] 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 price is 4,674 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China is 4,610 yuan/ton [28] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is relatively low. Domestic devices are under planned maintenance with a large intensity. Downstream demand is okay but the expectation is weakening. The cost - end support is weakening. The short - term supply and demand are tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA01 is under pressure but has support at the bottom. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on pullbacks for TA05. Pay attention to TA05 in the range of [4670 - 4850] [30] 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG05 price is 3,627 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China is 3,602 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas device operating rates have decreased. Downstream demand is okay but the expectation is weakening. The inventory is expected to accumulate in December. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver. It fluctuates in the short - term following the cost [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop profit on short positions; pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to EG05 in the range of [3725 - 3785] [33] 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Taicang spot price is slightly stronger, and the port inventory has decreased month - on - month [36] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device operating rate has increased to a high level in the same period. Overseas devices have decreased their loads. The import volume in December is estimated to be about 1.3 million tons, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand has slightly weakened. The cost - end support is weakening [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously short, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on pullbacks. Pay attention to MA05 in the range of [2145 - 2185] [38] 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: Shandong small - particle urea basis is 85 yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: The daily output of urea is as high as 199,000 tons. By mid - to late December, the supply pressure is expected to ease. The short - term demand is relatively good but lacks sustainability. The factory inventory has decreased but is still at a high level in the same period. The export has maintained a high growth rate since July. There is a ceiling and a floor for the urea price. The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously chase up, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on pullbacks for UR05. Pay attention to UR05 in the range of [1670 - 1710] [42] 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On December 17, the NG main contract closed at 4.024 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 3.55% month - on - month [44] - **Basic Logic**: The demand has entered the peak consumption season, but the recent mild weather in the US has reduced the support for gas prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and gas prices are under pressure [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand has support during the peak consumption season, but gas prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Pay attention to NG in the range of [3.762 - 4.174] [45] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On December 18, the BU main contract closed at 2,952 yuan/ton, down 1.99% month - on - month [47] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The oil price is weak, and the supply and demand are both weak. The South American geopolitical uncertainty is the main disturbing factor recently, causing a price rebound [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, and there is still about 100 yuan/ton of compression space. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season. Partially stop profit on short positions. Pay attention to BU in the range of [2900 - 3000] [49] 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 basis is - 32 yuan/ton, FG15 is - 109 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 1,244 [51] - **Basic Logic**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the factory inventory has ended a three - week decline. High inventory restricts the rebound space. The daily melting volume is stable at 155,000 tons. The profits of the three processes have turned negative. The real estate market is in an adjustment period, and the deep - processing orders are weakening [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, stop profit on some short positions due to the support of short - term moving averages. In the long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to FG in the range of [1030 - 1080] [52] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 basis is - 43 yuan/ton, SA15 is - 109 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 4,332 [54] - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory has ended a five - week decline. Short - term supply pressure has been relieved by maintenance, but there is a plan to put into production a 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing in late December. The long - term supply will remain loose. The cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, and the demand support is insufficient [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, stop profit on short positions due to the support of short - term moving averages. In the long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to SA in the range of [1150 - 1200] [55]

中辉有色观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | | I | 100 10 | 2 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美国数据利于宽松，英国继续降息，欧洲央行保持不变，短期市场流动性风险偏好 | 黄金 | | | 长线持有 | | 较好，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续 | | ★ | | 存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银短期故事越来越多、短期投机资金大量涌入，长期来看市场押注降息持续、供 | 白银 | | | 长线持有 | ★★ | 需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金 | | 银比价大幅快速降低，盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险 | | | | 美通胀不及预期，美联储 | | 1 月降息预期增加，美国虹吸全球铜库存，国内 2026 年铜 | | 铜 | | | | 长线持有 | ★ | 精矿 TC 长协谈判焦灼，铜易涨难跌，风物宜放长量，建议铜多单继续持有，回调仍 是布局良机，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | 海外锌库存持续累库，锌精矿 ...

【品种观点】 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， | | 豆粕 ★ | 震荡偏空 | 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 应预计暂充足，现货价格表现抗跌。豆粕预计短线暂维持震荡偏弱行情。关注美豆 | | | | 出口情况及南美天。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。进口多元化逐步替代中加进口矛盾问题，暂 | | ★ | 震荡偏空 | 无强驱动，以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注澳籽进口政策及中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 马棕榈油本月前 15 日出口数据环比下降，马政府对于 12 月马棕榈油累库预期的言 | | 棕榈油 | | 论叠加下半月东南亚降雨表现一般的双重作用下，市场人气偏空，近期预计维持偏 | | ★ | 震荡偏弱 | 弱震荡。由于东南亚逐步进入减产季，棕榈油追空操作需谨慎，关注调整后企稳反 | | | | 弹短多机会。 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹产量及表需环比略上升，绝对水平仍为同期最低。库存继续下降，去化速度正常。 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 铁水产量延续下降态势，已低于去年同期水平。螺纹在弱驱动、低估值状态下中期或继 | | ★ | | 续维持区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量及表需延续小幅下降的状态，库存降幅仍然不大，处于近年来同期最高水平， | | ★ | | 去库不畅。现货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。盘面或仍将维持区间运行。 | | | | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续有继续减量预期，关注其降幅。钢厂降库，港口增库。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 外矿发到货双降，阶段性支撑矿价。经济工作会议阶段性提振矿价，但情绪交易过后， | | ★ | | 矿价仍承压。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第三轮提降，预计下周落地。部分地区受环保要求主动执行限产措施，焦 | | 焦炭 ★ | 谨慎看多 | 企生产积极性尚可，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，对原料端形 | | | | 成压制。短期跟随焦煤偏强运行，关注阶 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 南美地缘升温，油价短线反弹。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和，南美地缘不确 | | | | 定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油 | | ★ | | 激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注 | | | | 变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势 | | LPG | | 仍向下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 70%左右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利空，港口与厂内库存环比上 | | | 升。 | | | | | 期现共振下跌，LP 价差大幅收缩。停车比例小幅提升至 14%，LL 加权毛 | | L | | 利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期检修难度 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Medium-term range operation, with a cautious bullish view on rebar and hot-rolled coil [1][3][4][5] - Iron ore: Cautiously bearish [1][6][7] - Coke: Bullish [1][8][10][11] - Coking coal: Bullish [1][12][13][14] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Cautiously bullish, with a view of range-bound trading [1][15][17][18] Core View of the Report - Overall, the steel market is expected to operate in a range in the medium term, with different trends for each variety. Rebar and hot-rolled coil may show short-term upward momentum, while iron ore is under pressure. Coke and coking coal are expected to be strong, and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will likely trade in a range due to loose supply and demand [1][3][5][7][11][14][18] Summary by Variety Rebar - **Production and Demand**: Production and apparent demand decreased month-on-month, at the lowest level for the same period [1][4] - **Inventory**: Inventory depletion is normal, with a rapid decline in Hangzhou inventory [1][4] - **Price Trend**: Medium-term range-bound fluctuations under weak drivers and low valuations, short-term upward movement driven by positive news [1][5] Hot-rolled Coil - **Production and Demand**: Production and apparent demand continued to decline slightly, with low inventory reduction and the highest level in recent years, difficult to destock [1][4] - **Spot and Basis**: Spot is relatively weak, and the basis fluctuates around par [1][4] - **Price Trend**: Medium-term range operation, short-term strength due to positive rumors [1][5] Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Hot metal production decreased month-on-month, with a continued reduction expected. Steel mills reduced inventory while port inventory increased. Overseas ore arrivals and shipments both decreased, providing temporary support for prices [1][6] - **Price Trend**: The economic work conference temporarily boosted prices, but prices are still under pressure after the sentiment-driven trading [1][6][7] Coke - **Supply**: The second round of price cuts was implemented. Some areas limited production due to environmental protection, resulting in a slight decrease in supply [1][10] - **Demand**: Hot metal production decreased month-on-month, suppressing raw material demand [1][10] - **Price Trend**: Short-term price bottomed out and rebounded, pay attention to the pressure at the phased high point, take a bullish approach [1][10][11] Coking Coal - **Supply**: Domestic coal production decreased month-on-month, and clean coal inventory continued to increase. Some coal mines reduced production voluntarily, with expected low production in the short term. Imported Mongolian coal prices weakened [1][13] - **Demand**: The downstream delivery rhythm slowed down due to weather [1][13] - **Price Trend**: After a short-term rebound from the low level, it may continue to be strong, take a bullish approach [1][13][14] Silicomanganese - **Supply and Demand**: Port ore prices remained firm, production area supply increased month-on-month, demand weakened, and inventory continued to increase. The steel procurement in December has started, with the final price of a landmark steel mill at 5,770 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1][17] - **Price Trend**: Short-term cost support exists, the supply-demand structure is loose, and the price is relatively low, view it as range-bound trading [1][17][18] Ferrosilicon - **Supply and Demand**: The main production areas slightly reduced production, demand continued to weaken, and inventory increased significantly month-on-month. The steel procurement in December has started, with the final price of a landmark steel mill at 5,660 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1][17] - **Price Trend**: The supply-demand structure is loose, the price is relatively low, view it as range-bound trading [1][17][18]

中辉有色观点 | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 美国数据喜忧参半，英国货币政策或宽松，日本央行措辞放松，短期市场流动性风 险偏好较好，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定 | | ★ | | | | | | 性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银短期故事越来越多、短期投机资金大量涌入，美盘 ETF 资金持续涌入。未来市 | | 白银 | | | | ★★ | 长线持有 | 场押注降息持续、供需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做 | | | | 多逻辑不变。铂钯短期被资金青睐，短期资金高涨情绪延续。 | | 铜 | | 美国虹吸全球铜库存，国内 2026 年铜精矿 TC 长协谈判焦灼，铜易涨难跌，风物宜 | | | 长线持有 | 放长量，建议铜多单继续持有，回调仍是布局良机，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | ★ | | | | | | 海外锌库存显性化，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱， | | 锌 | 承压 | 国内淡季去库。隔 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation. Sino - US soybean purchases have started, but poor US soybean export data is bearish for the US market sentiment. South American weather rainfall has improved, and there is a lack of bullish drivers. Although the latest domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased week - on - week, it is still high year - on - year. Supply in December is expected to be sufficient for now, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile short - term trend [2][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term rebound. Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory, zero crushing, and low imports, but port inventory is still high year - on - year. During the off - season, the spot price is reduced to destock. There is no major expected change in fundamentals. Import diversification is gradually replacing the Sino - Canadian import contradiction issue, and there is no strong driver for now. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the subsequent progress of Sino - Canadian trade [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation. The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month decreased month - on - month. The Malaysian government's expectation of inventory accumulation in December and the average rainfall in Southeast Asia in the second half of the month have combined to create a bearish market sentiment. However, as Southeast Asia gradually enters the production - reduction season, existing short positions in palm oil can be temporarily held, and short - selling operations should be treated with caution. Attention should be paid to short - long opportunities after the adjustment and stabilization [2][10]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term oscillation. The domestic soybean oil inventory has slightly decreased week - on - week but is still higher than the five - year average. The improvement in South American weather and weak data from the palm oil side provide insufficient support. Soybean oil is in a bearish downward trend. Attention should be paid to the previous low technical support level, as well as South American weather and US biodiesel policy progress [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Range - bound oscillation. Currently, coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. Port inventory has continued to decline month - on - month. However, the diversification of imports such as Australian and Russian rapeseed, along with the high - yield of global and Canadian rapeseed, and the commercialization of Australian rapeseed imports are bearish for market sentiment. Rapeseed oil is operating weakly. Attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the subsequent progress of Sino - Canadian trade [2]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a bullish bias. The US cotton harvest is nearing completion, and Brazil has started the new - season planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to operate in a bottom - oscillating pattern. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, and the sales progress has significantly slowed down. There is a need to be vigilant against short - term correction risks under market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the change in the subsequent commercial inventory accumulation speed. In terms of operations, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to enter long positions on corrections, and also to the long - term moderate recovery opportunity under the supply - side narrative [2][14]. - **Red Dates**: Weak operation. At the end of the acquisition period, the upward trend of the spot price has paused, and as the peak of new - product listing and the consumption peak season arrive, the price fluctuation on the futures market will increase. High inventory still exerts significant pressure on the rebound of red date prices. Under the pattern of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. On the futures market, most of the premium caused by the speculation of a significant reduction in new - season red date production since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The downward trend of short positions on the futures market has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. In the cooling market environment, attention should be paid to the short - term rebound opportunity at the bottom [2][17]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - sell on rebounds. As the Winter Solstice approaches, the release of live pig slaughter will be concentrated. Although demand indicators such as fresh - meat sales and slaughter have improved, the increase in supply is likely to exceed the increase in demand, and the short - term driving force for pig price increase is limited. Coupled with the late Spring Festival this year and the increase in second - fattening, even if the Winter Solstice expectation fails, the inventory in December will be difficult to clear effectively, and the price will still be under pressure in January. For futures contracts, the 01 contract is only 12 trading days away from the delivery month and is likely to oscillate weakly under the delivery logic. For the 03 contract, in the absence of an unexpected spread of the epidemic, attention should be paid to the opportunity to short - sell on rebounds. For the 0911 contract, due to the divergence between the expected production reduction and capacity reduction, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices for now [2][20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of December 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.162 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 208,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.3615 million tons. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.3948 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 239,600 tons (3.35%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.3807 million tons (22.96%). The soybean meal inventory was 1.0969 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,000 tons (5.59%) and a year - on - year increase of 456,700 tons (71.34%). The physical inventory of soybean meal of 50 feed enterprises was 9.13 days, an increase of 0.64 days from the previous period and 1.05 days from the same period last year [4]. - **Price Data**: The futures price (主力日收盘) of soybean meal was 2,777 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan (0.69%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,153.71 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The soybean crushing profit of the national average was - 64.1098 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.06 yuan from the previous day [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of December 12, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 tons, unchanged from the previous week; and the undelivered contract was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week [8]. - **Price Data**: The futures price (主力日收盘) of rapeseed meal was 2,359 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (0.77%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,507.37 yuan/ton, up 9.48 yuan (0.38%) from the previous day. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 517.094 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.19 yuan from the previous day [6]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of December 12, 2025 (the 50th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 652,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons (4.53%) and a year - on - year increase of 113,500 tons (21.05%) [10]. - **Price Data**: The futures price (主力日收盘) of palm oil was 8,342 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan (- 0.81%) from the previous day. The national average price was 8,448 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 0.47%) from the previous day. The import cost was 8,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan from the previous day [9]. Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, the cotton harvest is nearing the end, and more than 1.5 million tons of new cotton have been inspected. In India, the daily listing volume of new cotton is between 16,000 and 20,000 tons, and nearly 42,500 tons have been purchased under the MSP. However, there was rainfall in the southern and central regions in late November, which was unfavorable for MSP purchases. In Brazil, the cotton processing progress in 2025 was 73.87%, and the non - main production areas have started sowing new cotton for the 2026 season, with heavy rainfall expected in the main production areas until the end of November [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is basically completed, with more than 5.4 million tons inspected. The sales progress has significantly slowed down, only increasing by 0.2% to 41.6%. The national total production is expected to be increased by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons, and the new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. In terms of imports, the total imported cotton resources in October were 223,000 tons, almost unchanged from the previous month and 13,500 tons higher than the same period. The national commercial inventory has increased to 4.7 million tons, 100,000 tons higher than the same period; the Xinjiang commercial inventory has increased to 3.88 million tons, about 250,000 tons higher than the same period; and the inventory of the main inland provinces has increased to 190,000 tons, 10,000 tons higher than the same period. The terminal finished - product inventory level is relatively neutral and low [13]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of CF2601 (主力) was 13,930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (- 0.07%) from the previous value. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,144 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan (0.09%) from the previous value [11]. Red Dates - **Supply and Inventory**: The acquisition in the Hetian, Qiemo, and Ruoqiang areas has ended, and the acquisition in other production areas is also nearing the end, with the prices in the production areas showing a weakening trend. The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates this week was 15,790 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,880 tons and 2,848 tons higher than the same period [16]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of CJ2601 (主) was 8,830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The retail price of general - grade red dates was 7 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous value [15]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the farming side had active slaughter in November, and the scale enterprises had great pressure on slaughter volume, with the overall plan not well - completed. The planned slaughter volume in December has increased by 3.2%. In the medium term, the number of newly - born piglets of the Steel Union sample enterprises in November decreased by 76,200 to 5.7031 million. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows in October decreased to 39.9 million, and it is initially expected that the reduction target of 39.5 million tons will be basically achieved by the end of the year. The demand side has gradually entered a situation of both supply and demand booming, but the supply - side narrative may still be the dominant factor [19]. - **Price Data**: The futures closing price of 1h2601 was 11,375 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.13%) from the previous value; the national average slaughter price of live pigs was 11,600 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.69%) from the previous value [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Short on rebounds [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is easing, and the oil market is in an oversupply pattern, leading to a bearish outlook on oil prices. Cost - related factors are dragging down the prices of LPG, L, PP, etc. Some products have short - term supply - demand imbalances and inventory issues [1][9]. - For some chemical products like PTA, EG, and methanol, supply - demand changes, cost support, and inventory trends are the main factors affecting their prices. Urea has a complex supply - demand situation with both domestic and international factors at play [3]. - Natural gas prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply and weakened demand support. Asphalt prices are affected by cost and seasonal demand factors. Glass and soda ash markets are facing supply - demand imbalances with high inventories [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI down 2.94%, Brent down 2.71%, and SC down 1.14% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical support for oil prices is decreasing as the Russia - Ukraine situation eases. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and global and US inventories are increasing [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Russia's oil production in November increased slightly. The IEA predicts an increase in global crude oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil and product inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 5 [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and oil prices are in a low - price range. Technically, the trend is weak. It is recommended to partially close short positions, with SC focusing on the range of 415 - 430 [11]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 16, the PG main contract closed at 4210 yuan/ton, up 1.40% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed slight changes [12][13]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, which is in a downward trend. Supply has increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but MTBE blending demand has decreased. Inventory has increased [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and LPG prices still have room to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions, with PG focusing on the range of 4150 - 4250 [15]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Falling oil prices, weakening basis, and high production rates limit the rebound space. Supply is sufficient, the peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventory is increasing slightly [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread, with L focusing on the range of 6450 - 6600 [19]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price increased, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed significantly [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Weak demand support, weakening basis, and high inventory limit the rebound space. In December, demand enters the off - season, and the industry chain still faces high inventory - reduction pressure [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Consider going long on PP processing fees or short on MTO05, with PP focusing on the range of 6200 - 6300 [23]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 closing price increased, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed [25]. - **Basic Logic**: North American plant shutdowns led to a rebound in the market, but the basis weakened. Supply - demand surplus persists until there are concentrated mid - and upstream maintenance. Some northwest self - supplied calcium carbide plants are losing cash flow [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it as a short - term rebound. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for continuous inventory reduction before going long, with V focusing on the range of 4300 - 4450 [27]. 3.6 PTA - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of PTA changed slightly, and basis and spreading prices also had some fluctuations [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side processing fees are low, and many domestic and overseas plants are under maintenance. Downstream demand is currently good but expected to weaken. Cost support is weakening, and there is an expected inventory build - up in January [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the low valuation and processing fees, consider going long on the 05 contract on dips, with TA05 focusing on the range of 4610 - 4670 [30]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of EG changed, and basis and spreading prices also had fluctuations [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas plant loads have decreased. Downstream demand is currently good but expected to weaken. There is an expected inventory build - up in December, and it lacks upward drivers [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, with EG05 focusing on the range of 3730 - 3800 [33]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data is emphasized, but it is mentioned that the Taicang spot price is weakening [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The port inventory is decreasing, but the supply - side pressure still exists. Domestic plants are increasing production, while overseas plants are reducing production. Demand is slightly weakening, and cost support is weakening [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The methanol 05 contract is expected to be weak, with the downward space being limited [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of urea changed, and basis and spreading prices also had fluctuations [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strengthening. Supply pressure is expected to ease in mid - to - late December. Demand is currently good but not sustainable. Inventory is decreasing but still at a high level [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously avoid shorting. Consider going long on the 05 contract, with UR01 focusing on the range of 1615 - 1640 [42]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 15, the NG main contract closed at 4.012 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 2.46% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed [43][44]. - **Basic Logic**: Although it is the consumption peak season, the relatively mild weather in the US has weakened demand support. Gas prices have reached a high level in recent years, and supply is relatively sufficient [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 3.860 - 4.239 US dollars per million British thermal units. The demand has some support, but gas prices are under pressure [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 16, the BU main contract closed at 2891 yuan/ton, down 2.07% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly [46][47]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side factors are negative, and it is the consumption off - season. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is relatively high [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions due to the increasing uncertainty in South American geopolitics. Pay attention to the range of 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton [49]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price decreased slightly, and basis and spreading prices changed [51]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply reduction is insufficient under weak demand. Production capacity remains stable, and demand is weak. Inventory is high although it has decreased for three consecutive weeks [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short, with FG focusing on the range of 1110 - 1150 [53]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price increased, and basis and spreading prices changed [55]. - **Basic Logic**: The market rebounded with reduced positions. Supply is expected to be loose with a planned new plant coming into operation. Demand support is insufficient [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short, with SA focusing on the range of 1150 - 1200 [57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings and Core Views - The investment ratings for various futures varieties are as follows: soybean meal - short - term consolidation; rapeseed meal - short - term rebound; palm oil - short - term consolidation; soybean oil - short - term oscillation; rapeseed oil - range oscillation; cotton - oscillation with an upward bias; red dates - weak operation; live pigs - rebound and short - sell [1] - The core view for soybean meal is that although the Sino - US soybean purchase has started, the poor US soybean export data is bearish for the US market sentiment. The improved rainfall in South America means there is a lack of bullish drivers. The domestic soybean meal inventory has improved on a week - on - week basis but is still high year - on - year. Supply in December is expected to be sufficient, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating market [1][4] - For rapeseed meal, the coastal oil mills have zero inventory and zero crushing of rapeseed, and low imports. However, the port inventory is still high year - on - year, and the spot is reducing inventory by lowering prices. There is no significant change in fundamentals expected. It follows the trend of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the follow - up progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1][7] - Regarding palm oil, Malaysia's palm oil export data in the first 15 days of this month decreased month - on - month. The government's expectation of inventory accumulation in December is bearish for market sentiment. Due to the expected entry into the production - reduction season in Southeast Asia, short - selling operations should be treated with caution. Attention should be paid to short - long opportunities after the adjustment stabilizes, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating in December [1][9] - For soybean oil, the domestic soybean oil inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month but is still higher than the five - year average. The improved South American weather and the lack of positive data from the palm oil side lead to a bearish adjustment. Attention should be paid to the previous low - level technical support, as well as the South American weather and the progress of the US biodiesel policy [1] - In the case of rapeseed oil, the current zero - start of coastal oil mills, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November, along with the continuous decline in port inventory. However, the diversification of imports such as Australian and Russian rapeseed, as well as the global and Canadian rapeseed harvests, may limit the upside space of prices. It is operating weakly, and attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the follow - up progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1] - For cotton, the US cotton harvest is nearing the end, and Brazil has started the new - season planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to oscillate at the bottom. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, but the sales progress has significantly slowed down. There is a need to be vigilant against short - term callback risks. In operation, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to short - long opportunities after the callback and the long - term moderate recovery opportunities under the supply narrative [1][13] - Regarding red dates, at the end of the acquisition, the spot price increase has slowed down the downward trend. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the market volatility increases. The high inventory still exerts significant pressure on the price rebound. In a situation of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. On the disk, most of the premium caused by speculation of a large - scale reduction in new - season red dates since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The short - selling trend on the disk has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. In a cooling market, attention should be paid to short - term rebound opportunities at the bottom [1][17] - For live pigs, as the Winter Solstice approaches, the concentrated release of live pig slaughter is expected. Although the demand indicators such as fresh sales and slaughter have improved, the increase in supply is likely to exceed the increase in demand, so the short - term upward driving force of pig prices is limited. With the late Spring Festival this year and the increase in the second - fattening of pigs, even if the Winter Solstice expectations are disappointed, the inventory in December is difficult to clear effectively, and the price will still be under pressure in January. For contracts, the 01 contract is only 12 trading days away from the delivery month, and it is likely to oscillate weakly under the delivery logic. For the 03 contract, in the absence of an unexpected spread of diseases, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For the 0911 contracts, due to the divergence between the reduction expectation and capacity reduction, short - long positions can be taken at low prices for now [1][20] Group 2: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - As of December 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.162 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 208,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.3615 million tons. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.3948 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 239,600 tons (3.35% increase) and a year - on - year increase of 1.3807 million tons (22.96% increase). The soybean meal inventory was 1.0969 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,000 tons (5.59% decrease) and a year - on - year increase of 456,700 tons (71.34% increase). The physical inventory days of soybean meal for 50 feed enterprises in the main regions of the country was 9.13 days, an increase of 0.64 days from the previous period and 1.05 days from the same period last year [3] - The current oil mill operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level of about 59%. The soybean meal inventory has increased significantly year - on - year, and the oil mills are pushing for提货. The downstream has high basis costs for purchases from December to January and is showing resistance to price drops [3] - The futures price (main contract daily closing) of soybean meal is 2,777 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3,154.57 yuan/ton, a 0.01% increase from the previous day. The soybean crushing profit has a national average of - 63.4304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.38 yuan from the previous day. The basis of different contracts has also changed [2] Rapeseed Meal - As of December 12, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 0 tons, all remaining the same as the previous week [7] - The rapeseed meal market is full of a wait - and - see attitude. The market players are generally cautious in taking goods. The current market is oscillating, and the future trend is unclear. Downstream enterprises are mainly focused on risk control and replenishing inventory as needed, while the trading side is taking small quantities and turning over flexibly [7] - The futures price (main contract daily closing) of rapeseed meal is 2,359 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2,497.89 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease from the previous day. The rapeseed spot crushing profit has decreased significantly [5] Palm Oil - As of December 12, 2025 (week 50), the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 652,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons (4.53% decrease) and a year - on - year increase of 113,500 tons (21.05% increase) [9] - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 2.55% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in November were 632,300 tons, a 4.97% increase from October. Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 were 613,172 tons, a 15.89% decrease from the same period last month [9] - The futures price (main contract daily closing) of palm oil is 8,410 yuan/ton, a 0.97% decrease from the previous day. The national average aggregated price is 8,488 yuan/ton, a 1.34% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume has changed, and the inventory has decreased [8] Cotton - Internationally, in the US, the cotton harvest is ending, and over 1.5 million tons of new cotton have been inspected. In India, the daily new cotton listing volume is between 16,000 - 20,000 tons, and nearly 42,500 tons have been purchased under the MSP, but rainfall in late November in the south and central regions was unfavorable for MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and non - main producing areas have started sowing 2026 new cotton, with the main producing areas expected to have heavy rainfall by the end of November [11] - Domestically, new cotton picking is basically completed, and the inspection volume has exceeded 5.4 million tons. The sales progress has significantly slowed down, with only a 0.2% increase to 41.6%. The national total production has been revised up by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons. The cost of new - season lint cotton is basically locked between 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. In October, the imported cotton resource volume was 223,000 tons, almost the same as the previous month and 13,500 tons higher than the same period [12] - The futures prices of different cotton contracts have changed slightly. The spot price has increased slightly. The spinning profit of textile enterprises has increased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream demand has shown some changes [10] Red Dates - In terms of supply, the acquisition in some regions has ended, and the acquisition in other regions is nearing the end. The prices in the production areas are weakening. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased to 15,790 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,880 tons and 2,848 tons higher than the same period [16] - In terms of demand, the trading in the Cui'erzhuang market is mainly for new products, and the downstream's enthusiasm for taking goods has increased. The Ruyifang market has general demand [16] - The futures prices of different red date contracts have decreased. The spot prices of different varieties have remained basically unchanged. The basis and inventory have changed [14] Live Pigs - In the short term, in November, the breeding side actively slaughtered pigs, with fierce competition. The large - scale enterprises had high slaughter pressure, and their overall plan completion was not ideal. The planned slaughter in December has increased by 3.2%. Under pessimistic expectations, small - scale farmers, contract - farming companies, and previously second - fattened pigs are more willing to sell. The daily slaughter of large - scale enterprises has slightly decreased, but the large - scale slaughter pressure still limits the spot performance. The spread between standard and fat pigs has widened recently, and there has been some second - fattening entry behavior [19] - In the medium term, the number of newly - born piglets in November decreased by 76,200 to 5.7031 million. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows in October decreased to 39.9 million, and it is initially expected that the reduction target of 39.5 million tons will be basically completed by the end of the year, corresponding to high slaughter pressure at the end of the year [19] - The demand side is gradually turning into a situation of both supply and demand booming with the increase in pickling and enema activities in the southwest and other regions. However, the supply narrative may still be the dominant factor [19] - The futures prices of different live pig contracts have changed slightly. The slaughter price, basis, and various inventory and demand indicators have also changed [18]