1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The supply of crude oil is expected to be in excess in the medium - to - long term, and there is a high probability that it will be pressured to around $60. For other chemical products, their market trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal demand [1][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.69%, Brent dropped 1.52%, and SC dropped 0.70% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have declined, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The U.S. crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected in the short term, providing some support, but there is a large probability of supply excess in the medium - to - long term, which may push the price down to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased in August. The U.S. crude oil net imports decreased, and exports increased. OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while diesel inventory increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [480 - 495] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 18, the PG main contract closed at 4466 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil supply is in excess, and the demand from the chemical industry has weakened. The supply and inventory have increased, which is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7188 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price has continued to fall. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is gradually shifting to a situation of both strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase next week, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term weak oscillation. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of [7150 - 7250] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6926 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan [21]. - **Basic Logic**: High - level maintenance cannot offset high - level expansion. The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price is weak. The cost of propylene is high, suppressing processing profits. The downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price is at a premium. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [6850 - 7000] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4923 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a high level. The cost support from thermal coal has improved. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The export is expected to weaken [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6864 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices have little change at home and abroad. The demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance has led to a short - term increase in load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6620 - 6720] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4565 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The TA01 closed at 4648 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low. The supply pressure has increased due to new device production and the resumption of previous maintenance devices. The market has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for single - side trading; pay attention to the opportunity to expand the PTA processing fee for arbitrage [2]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4378 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan. The EG01 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. The market has expectations for the peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The inventory is low, providing some support. The market is trading on the expectation of new device production, showing a weak oscillation [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold high - level short positions, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [4235 - 4280] for EG01 [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2317 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The device maintenance of methanol has increased, and the supply - side pressure is expected to improve. The demand has slightly improved, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The cost support is stabilizing [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2328 - 2370] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The short - term supply is tight, but the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic demand is weak, while the export is good. The factory inventory has continued to accumulate, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options [2]. Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: The U.S. natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, causing the price to weaken. The cooling weather has increased the combustion demand and the winter gas storage, which provides some support [4]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has rebounded due to geopolitical disturbances, but the supply is in excess. The asphalt supply - demand is generally loose, and the valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Basic Logic**: The production and sales in some regions are okay, and the spot price has increased. The supply is under pressure, and the terminal demand is still weak [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to peak - season demand support, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash has improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks. The supply is expected to be loose after the end of summer maintenance [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to slight demand improvement, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various steel and related products, including cautious bullish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, and coking coal; short-term long participation for iron ore; and cautious bearish for ferromanganese and ferrosilicon [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that the steel industry shows some positive changes in supply and demand, but there are still uncertainties and limitations. Different products have different supply and demand situations and price trends [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Rebar's apparent demand improves month-on-month, production decreases slightly, and inventory starts to decline. However, the speed of inventory reduction needs further observation. The Tangshan production restriction news provides a boost, but it is expected to be only a temporary impact. The high level of hot metal production keeps the overall steel supply high. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors still have a negative impact. The supply and demand driving force is limited, and it may operate within a range in the short term [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil decreases, production and inventory increase slightly, and the overall change is small. The supply and demand are relatively stable with few contradictions. The high level of hot metal production keeps the overall steel demand weak, and there is a lack of upward driving force on the supply and demand side. It may also operate within a range in the short term [1][4][5] Iron Ore - Iron ore's fundamentals are strong due to the increase in hot metal production, the recovery of foreign ore arrivals, and the pre-National Day steel mill restocking. However, the driving force is insufficient, and the upside space is limited. Short-term long participation is recommended [1][6][7] Coke - Coke has started the first round of price increases. Coke enterprises have decent profits, and spot production is relatively stable. The hot metal production increases slightly month-on-month and remains at a high level, resulting in high raw material demand. Coke's supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to operate within a range. A cautious bullish view is recommended [1][10][11] Coking Coal - The energy bureau's inspection of coal overproduction has started to take effect, with some coal mines shutting down for rectification. The current domestic coking coal production is significantly lower than the same period last year, resulting in a tight supply, but there are expectations of a market recovery. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is at a high level, and imports are running at a high level. The hot metal production increases slightly, and the high absolute level ensures raw material demand. There are few short-term supply and demand contradictions, but supply-side policies are sometimes disruptive. It operates strongly within a range in a positive atmosphere. A cautious bullish view is recommended [1][14][15] Ferrous Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: The supply and demand of ferromanganese both decrease month-on-month. The total inventory of sample enterprises is 198,900 tons, an increase of 32,100 tons month-on-month. The final tender price of a landmark steel mill in September is 6,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to August. Overall, the supply and demand tend to be loose, and the cost side strongly supports the price. There may be short-term correction pressure, and cautious long chasing is advised [1][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent. The total inventory of sample enterprises this week is 63,390 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons month-on-month. The cost side still provides some support for the price in the short term, and the market may follow the coal price to operate within a range [1][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans and Meal**: Short - term decline, with limited continuous decline space due to Sino - US trade issues, and treated as a large - range market. Caution is needed when short - selling below 2940 yuan [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline, with multiple and short factors intertwined due to trade policies and high inventory. It follows the trend of beans and meal, and the progress of Sino - Canadian trade should be monitored [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation, with a generally positive fundamental outlook. Look for short - term long opportunities on dips, but gradually control positions and risk management [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term consolidation, pressured by the US bio - diesel policy and approaching soybean harvest, while supported by domestic double - festival stocking demand. Be cautious when going long [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating upwards, supported by Sino - Canadian trade disputes and double - festival demand, but its upward movement is restricted by the development of Sino - Australian trade [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bearish, with supply pressure from the increasing volume of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries. Domestically, beware of short - term rebound due to potential抢购. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish, with concerns about quality gradually easing. There may be significant price fluctuations before November. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term decline, with the spot market under pressure from supply. Maintain a short - selling strategy for the November contract and an inverse spread strategy [1][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Beans and Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2993 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, down 0.77% [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, up 2.50 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.2 million tons, up 1.50 million tons, and bean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, up 2.82 million tons [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2470 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the national average spot price remained unchanged at 2636.84 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, down 2.7 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, down 0.05 million tons [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9304 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous day; the national average price was 9308 yuan/ton, down 1.64% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, 2025, the national key area commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons week - on - week [8]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13765 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day; the domestic spot price rose 0.06% to 15330 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the US cotton harvest is approaching, and Brazil is in the harvest season. Domestically, new cotton is about to be listed, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 127 million tons [10][11]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10620 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous day [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The main producing areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9247 tons, down 74 tons week - on - week [15]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The main contract Lh2511 closed at 12830 yuan/ton, down 1.31% from the previous day; the spot price was 13040 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The national sample enterprise's pig inventory was 3782.4 million tons, up 0.51% month - on - month, and the出栏 volume was 1117.72 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt [1][4] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, PVC, glass, soda ash [1][4] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, urea, natural gas [1][3][4] - **Bullish**: Methanol [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks are released, and the Fed's interest - rate cut is confirmed. Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. There are different supply - demand situations and price trends for various energy and chemical products [1]. - For most products, the macro - environment, including OPEC+ production policies, Fed interest - rate decisions, and geopolitical conflicts, has a significant impact on prices. At the same time, the supply - demand relationship of each product itself also determines its price trend [1][3]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 1.86%, Brent fell 1.48%, and SC rose 1.28%. The latest WTI主力 was at $63.32/barrel, Brent主力 at $67.46/barrel, and SC主力 at 499.8 yuan/barrel [5]. - **Basic Logic**: The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and unexpected inventory drawdown in the US provide short - term support for oil prices, but there is a long - term supply surplus, with prices likely to fall to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week ending September 12, US crude net imports decreased by 3.1 million barrels/day to 415,000 barrels/day, and exports increased by 2.5 million barrels/day to 5.3 million barrels/day. EIA data showed a 9.3 - million - barrel decrease in US commercial crude inventories to 415.36 million barrels [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [495 - 505] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,494 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,540 (+10) yuan/ton, 4,499 (- 5) yuan/ton, and 4,550 (+10) yuan/ton respectively [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has a supply surplus and may decline further. The demand side has weakened due to falling chemical profits. As of September 17, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 13,002 lots [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,169 yuan/ton (- 40). The North China Ningmei price was 7,100 yuan/ton (- 30), and the number of warehouse receipts was 12,525 lots (+523) [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment has improved. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and demand. Production is expected to increase next week, and the demand side is supported by the approaching peak season for shed films [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7350] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6,939 yuan/ton. The East China wire - drawing market price was 6,847 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 92 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has improved. The recent increase in the PP parking ratio and the decline in the wire - drawing production ratio are expected to ease supply pressure. Downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips as supply pressure eases. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7050] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4,847 yuan/ton. The Changzhou spot price was 4,650 yuan/ton, and the 01 basis was - 197 yuan/ton [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment has improved, and the price has rebounded from a low level. Fundamentally, supply is strong and demand is weak, with large - sample social inventories accumulating for 12 consecutive weeks. There are more maintenance plans this week, and exports may weaken [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips supported by low valuations. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6,864 (+7) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,712 (- 66) yuan/ton. The PX11 - 12 month - spread was 24 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 85.7 (- 1.2) yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side domestic and overseas device changes are not significant. Demand has improved, with PTA device operating loads rising. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and inventories are still relatively high. Macro factors include OPEC+ production increases and a high probability of Fed interest - rate cuts [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Build long positions on dips in intraday trading and gradually close short positions. Focus on the range of [6750 - 6860] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA East China price was 4,565 (- 55) yuan/ton, and the TA01 closed at 4,648 (- 40) yuan/ton. The TA11 - 1 month - spread was - 18 (- 4) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 83 (- 15) yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low. Supply pressure increases due to the resumption of previously maintained devices and new device投产 expectations. There is an expectation of a "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, and demand is slightly better. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees and build long positions on dips in intraday trading [3]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,378 (- 44) yuan/ton, and the EG01 closed at 4,319 (- 31) yuan/ton. The EG10 - 1 month - spread was 34 (+21) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 106 (- 14) yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have not changed much. Arrivals and imports are relatively low. There is an expectation of a consumption peak season, and demand is improving. Inventories are low, providing support for prices. The market is trading on new device投产 expectations [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually close short positions and hold a light - position wait - and - see attitude. Focus on the range of [4270 - 4310] for EG01 [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,317 (- 8) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2,379 (- 8) yuan/ton. The East China basis was - 65 yuan/ton, and the port basis was - 99 (+3) yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Methanol device maintenance has increased, and the operating load has declined slightly. Overseas device loads are still high, and imports are high, resulting in relatively large supply - side pressure. Demand has stopped falling, and cost support has stabilized [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not short firmly. Look for opportunities to build long positions on dips for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2350 - 2380] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously bullish. Short - term supply is tight, but it is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose, but there are upper and lower limits under certain policies [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The urea futures price is under pressure in the short - term. Look for opportunities to build long positions on dips for the 01 contract in the medium - to - long - term [3]. Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously bullish. Geopolitical factors drive up energy prices, and the temperature is getting cooler, increasing combustion demand and gas storage for winter [4]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Although the cost - end crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, the supply is in surplus, and the overall supply - demand is loose, with high valuations [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Core View**: Bearish rebound. Market sentiment has improved, and enterprise inventories have decreased. New production lines have been ignited, increasing daily melting volume, but terminal demand is still weak [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish due to improved market sentiment [4]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish rebound. Market sentiment has improved, and enterprise inventories have decreased for three consecutive weeks. Demand is mostly rigid, and supply pressure is expected to ease due to upcoming device maintenance [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish with a slight improvement in demand, but bearish in the medium - to - long - term [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Cautious hold [1] - Copper: High - level correction [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] Core Views - The Fed's "not dovish enough" rate cut is in line with expectations. The dot - plot shows 50bp of rate cuts by the end of the year. The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, while short - term "sell - on - news" trading risks should be guarded against. Silver has strong long - term prospects but is volatile. Copper is expected to have limited downside in the short term and is still favored in the long run. Zinc is a short - position allocation in the long term. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel prices face pressure on rebounds. Industrial silicon has short - term wide - range oscillations, polysilicon has high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate has short - term wide - range oscillations with support at the bottom [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: There was a short - term adjustment in the gold and silver market. The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations, and risks of adjustments due to sentiment fluctuations should be guarded against [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US data decline supports rate cuts. The Fed cut rates by 25bp, and many countries followed suit. In the short term, geopolitical uncertainties and economic prospects drive gold prices to new highs. In the long term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold remains strong in the long term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. Silver has support around 9800. Wait for it to stabilize before making long - position purchases. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, breaking through the 80,000 - yuan support level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and inventories continue to accumulate. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and the strength of the peak season [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations. Copper prices are under pressure in the short term, but the long - term logic remains unchanged. Wait for copper to stop falling and stabilize before re - entering the market. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc declined under pressure and tested the lower support level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic inventories are accumulating, and overseas inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to domestic policies [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, Shanghai zinc oscillates weakly. In the long term, supply increases and demand decreases. Maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, electrolytic aluminum production is increasing, and inventories are accumulating. The demand side is gradually recovering. Alumina supply is abundant, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel has excessive pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The stainless steel market has expectations of a peak consumption season, and inventories are decreasing [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened lower and closed higher with a small gain [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production, and the terminal demand is in the peak season. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and the price has support at the bottom [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position strategy in the range of 73,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the short - term trend is downward. Soybean meal is under short - term bearish pressure, but the continuous decline space is limited due to Sino - US trade issues. Rapeseed meal is affected by trade policies and high inventory, with its trend mainly following soybean meal [1]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are in short - term consolidation. Palm oil has a bullish fundamental outlook but is affected by the variable US biodiesel policy. Soybean oil is pressured by the US biodiesel policy and the approaching soybean harvest, with sufficient domestic supply [1]. - **Oscillating Bullish**: Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillating trend, supported by the Sino - Canadian trade dispute and double - festival demand, but its upward movement is restricted [1]. - **Cautiously Bullish**: Cotton is cautiously bullish. Although the supply side is pressured by the increasing volume of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the domestic market is in a tight pattern before new cotton is listed, and the USDA's downward adjustment of China's new - year stock - to - use ratio is bullish [1]. - **Cautiously Bearish**: Jujube is cautiously bearish. Considering the current production forecast and carry - over inventory, there is pressure when new jujubes are listed. There may be large price fluctuations before November [1]. - **Cautiously Bullish**: For live hogs, the short - term and near - month contracts are pressured, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts are expected to rise over time [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Varieties Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.82 million tons. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan from the previous day [2][3]. - **Analysis**: The USDA's September supply - demand report showed an increase in US soybean production and ending stocks, which was slightly bearish for US soybeans. The short - term trend of soybean meal is bearish, but the decline space is limited due to Sino - US trade issues [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons [6]. - **Analysis**: The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is low due to low imports, but the demand is weak. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation still has a long way to go, and the bullish impact is limited. The trend follows soybean meal [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22 million tons. Malaysia's August palm oil ending inventory increased by 4.18% month - on - month [9]. - **Analysis**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the palm oil market, but the variable US biodiesel policy may suppress its performance. There are short - term long - buying opportunities on dips [1]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: As of the reporting period, the domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 127 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The spinning mill's operating rate increased by 0.5% to 66.5%, and the weaving mill's operating rate increased by 0.6% to 38% [10][12]. - **Analysis**: The supply side of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is under pressure, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The domestic market is tight before new cotton is listed, and there is support at the bottom of the short - term disk [1]. Jujube - **Market Conditions**: The main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.514% to 10815 yuan/ton. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons from last week [14][16]. - **Analysis**: The weather - related speculation window is shrinking, and the market's concern about quality issues is gradually easing. After new jujubes are listed, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap. There are opportunities to sell short on rebounds [1]. Live Hogs - **Market Conditions**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased by 1.59% to 13000 yuan/ton, and the domestic live hog spot price increased by 0.23% to 13320 yuan/ton. The national sample - enterprise live hog inventory increased by 0.51% to 3782.4 million, and the出栏量 increased by 2.39% to 1117.72 million heads [17][18]. - **Analysis**: The short - term and near - month contracts are pressured, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts are expected to rise over time, with strategies such as selling short on rebounds or 11 - 1 reverse spreads, and looking for long - buying opportunities for 07 and future 09 contracts [1].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 唐山限产消息带来提振，但预计仅为阶段性影响。铁水产量回升至 240 万吨以上，绝对 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看多 | 水平较高。螺纹产量及表需环比下降，库存继续增加。目前处于验证需求成色阶段，下 | | ★ | | 游需求仍未改善，同时库存及仓单存在一定压力。供需驱动力量有限，短期反映政策利 | | | | 多后维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需环比回升，绝对水平均较高，库存基本平稳。热卷供需相对平稳，矛盾 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 不大。政策带来阶段性提振，但供需缺少持续驱动。 | | 铁矿石 | 多单持有 | 铁水产量快速修复，关注钢企利润及减产情况。港口累库，钢厂小幅补库。外矿发到货 | | ★ | | 双降，降幅较大，基本面偏强。矿价震荡偏强。 | | | | 能源局核查煤炭超产问题开始落地，部分煤矿停产整改。焦炭第二轮提降落地，焦化利 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 润有所下降，焦企生产相对稳定。铁水产量环比大幅回升，原料需求较高。焦炭本身供 | | ★ | | 需相对平衡，跟随焦煤偏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the short - term outlook is bearish. Soybean meal is affected by the increase in US soybean production and inventory, and rapeseed meal is influenced by trade policies and high inventory [1]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to consolidate in the short term. Palm oil has positive consumption expectations due to biodiesel policies and purchase demand, while soybean oil faces pressure from the approaching US soybean harvest and high domestic inventory [1]. - **Oscillating with a Bullish Bias**: Rapeseed oil is likely to oscillate with a bullish bias, supported by the China - Canada trade dispute and dual - festival demand, but limited by the resumption of China - Australia trade [1]. - **Cautious Bullish**: Cotton is cautiously bullish. Although the supply is under pressure from the increasing output in the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the short - term bottom of the domestic market is supported by tight supply before new cotton listing and a lower inventory - to - sales ratio [1]. - **Cautious Bearish**: Jujube is cautiously bearish. There is pressure after the new jujube harvest considering the production forecast and carry - over inventory, but there may be large price fluctuations before November [1]. - **Cautious Bullish**: Live pigs are cautiously bullish. The spot and near - term contracts may have limited further decline, and the price may rise as the peak season approaches and the far - term capacity is reduced [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of September 12, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, up 2.5 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.2 million tons, 1.5 million tons more than last week. The futures price of the main contract was 3041 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day, and the national average spot price was 3067.14 yuan/ton, up 6.85 yuan [2][3]. - **Outlook**: The short - term is bearish but the decline space is limited due to approaching the spot price and Sino - US trade issues [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of September 12, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, down 2.7 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, down 0.05 million tons. The futures price of the main contract was 2518 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day, and the national average spot price was 2684.21 yuan/ton, up 18.95 yuan [5][7]. - **Outlook**: The short - term is bearish, and its trend mainly follows soybean meal. Attention should be paid to the results of China - Canada meetings [1]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of September 12, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract was 9482 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from the previous day, and the national average price was 9508 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental outlook is bullish. The idea is to go long when the price is low, and attention should be paid to Malaysia's palm oil export situation this month [1]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main contract CF2601 of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.07% to 13895 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price rose 0.29% to 15300 yuan/ton. The ICE cotton main contract rose 1.24% to 67.67 cents/pound. The national cotton commercial inventory dropped to 127 million tons, lower than the same period by 46.11 million tons [10][11]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Before new cotton listing, it is advisable to conduct range operations and pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price for far - month contracts [1]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2601 of jujube fell 0.55% to 10805 yuan/ton. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9321 tons, down 89 tons week - on - week, higher than the same period by 4593 tons [14][15]. - **Outlook**: There is pressure after new jujube harvest. In the short term, the concern about quality issues is alleviated, but there may be large price fluctuations before November. It is recommended to sell high during price fluctuations [1]. Live Pig - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2511 of live pig fell 0.87% to 13160 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price rose 0.30% to 13340 yuan/ton. The national sample enterprise live pig存栏量 was 3782.4 million tons, up 19.08 million tons month - on - month, and the出栏量 was 1117.72 million heads, up 26.04 million heads month - on - month [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The spot and near - term contracts have limited further decline space. The price may rise as the peak season approaches and far - term capacity is reduced. It is not recommended to short further for near - month contracts, and attention can be paid to going long for 07 and future 09 contracts [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are recommended to hold long positions. Gold is supported by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, expected Fed rate - cuts, geopolitical situations, and long - term strategic allocation needs. Silver benefits from rate - cuts, strong demand, and limited supply growth [1]. - Copper recommends holding long positions, with some profit - taking. In the short - term, beware of the risk of price decline due to rate - cut realization and holiday risk - aversion. In the long - term, it is still optimistic about copper [1][8]. - Zinc is expected to face pressure in its rebound. In the long - term, it is a short - position allocation in the sector due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [1][12]. - Lead, tin, and nickel are expected to face pressure in their rebounds, affected by factors such as enterprise maintenance, supply - demand imbalances, and inventory changes [1]. - Aluminum is expected to be relatively strong, with stable overseas bauxite supply, inventory reduction, and increased downstream demand [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have a rebound, with fundamental pressure but policy support [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to have a high - level shock, with improved fundamentals and limited upward drivers in the short - term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to have a rebound, with increasing production but also increasing inventory reduction, indicating strong terminal demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold has reached a new all - time high, and the market has priced in at least three rate - cuts [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US economic data supports rate - cuts. The retail sales growth may slow down. The market expects the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points, and a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year. Geopolitical situations in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have escalated. In the short - term, geopolitical and economic uncertainties drive the gold price to a new high. In the long - term, gold may have a long - term bull market [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term long - position strategy for gold and silver, but beware of "selling on the news" trading. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper has risen and then fallen. Pay attention to the support at the 80,000 - yuan level [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In August, China's imports of copper concentrates increased year - on - year, while imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased month - on - month. The processing fee TC is still in deep inversion. The production of electrolytic copper may decrease in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to pick up, and the annual supply - demand is in a tight balance [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market has fully priced in the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, with some profit - taking. Beware of the risk of price decline due to rate - cut realization and holiday risk - aversion. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The recommended trading ranges are [79,500, 82,500] for Shanghai copper and [9,900, 11,000] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has faced pressure and declined, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic zinc concentrate TC has decreased, and SMM's imported zinc concentrate index has increased. In September, domestic smelter maintenance has increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has increased, while overseas LME zinc inventory has continued to decrease. The demand in September is expected to be good, but downstream purchases are based on rigid demand [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed rate - cut is almost certain. London zinc is approaching the 3,000 - dollar level, while domestic zinc ingot inventory increase has dragged down Shanghai zinc. In the long - term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds. The recommended trading ranges are [22,000, 22,500] for Shanghai zinc and [2,900, 3,100] dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price has faced pressure in its rebound, and alumina has stabilized at a low level [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - environment has a strong rate - cut expectation. In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased. In September, the inventory has increased slightly, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has increased. For alumina, the supply of Guinea's bauxite is abundant, but the arrival volume in September may be affected by the rainy season. The domestic alumina operating rate has increased, and the supply pressure has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,500 - 21,500] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price has faced pressure in its rebound, and stainless steel has rebounded [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, the overseas macro - environment has a strong rate - cut expectation. The supply of refined nickel in China has a large surplus pressure, and the domestic pure nickel social inventory has continued to increase slightly. For stainless steel, the downstream consumption peak - season expectation still exists. The inventory of stainless steel has continued to decrease, and the production volume in September is expected to increase [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on nickel and stainless steel with light positions in the short - term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and then fell, with the late - session gain falling below 2% [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side continues to release incremental production, with weekly production and operating rate at historical highs. The terminal demand peak - season is obvious, with high - level energy storage demand and a warming power battery market. The downstream material factory's production schedule has continued to increase, and the inventory has been replenished for 10 consecutive weeks. The total inventory reduction of lithium carbonate production has increased, and the smelter inventory is below the median level, providing support for the price [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to whether it can stand firm on the 60 - day moving average [72,500 - 74,500] [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish rebound [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish rebound [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances boost oil prices, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate policy decision. Supply - demand imbalances and OPEC+ production increases are key factors affecting the energy market. Different chemical products have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][8][13] - For most products, the market is influenced by a combination of macro factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal demand changes. Some products are in a state of supply - demand tight balance, while others face supply or demand - side pressures [3][33][37] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices rose overnight. WTI increased by 0.82%, Brent by 1.53%, and SC by 1.02%. The Brent - WTI spread widened to $4.65 per barrel [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and attacks on Russian oil facilities support short - term oil prices. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, and the end of the US crude oil consumption season leads to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on oil prices in the medium - to long - term [8] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [495 - 505] [10] LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,494 yuan per ton, down 0.42% [11][12] - **Basic Logic**: Although the cost - end oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, the upstream crude oil is in an oversupply situation. Chemical profit decline weakens demand, and inventory increases slightly [13] - **Strategy**: Add short positions. Focus on the range of PG at [4400 - 4500] [14] L - **Market Performance**: The L01 closing price was 7,209 yuan per ton, down 0.2% [17] - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is gradually shifting to a situation of both strong supply and demand. The agricultural film peak season is approaching, and demand support strengthens [19] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of L at [7200 - 7350] [19] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 closing price was 6,939 yuan per ton, down 0.1% [22] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves. The PP parking ratio rises above 20%, reducing supply pressure. Downstream demand enters the peak season, and raw material demand gradually increases [24] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks as supply pressure eases. Focus on the range of PP at [6900 - 7050] [24] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 closing price was 4,847 yuan per ton, down 0.9% [27] - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, and the price rebounds from a low level. The supply is strong and demand is weak, and inventory has been accumulating for 12 weeks. However, more device maintenance plans are expected to reduce production [29] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks supported by low valuation. Pay attention to the range of V at [4900 - 5050] [29] PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6,864 yuan per ton, up 7 yuan [32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device changes are limited. PTA device maintenance is short - term, and demand improves. PXN is at a relatively high level this year. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical conflicts affect the market [33] - **Strategy**: Go long on short - term dips and gradually close short positions. Focus on the range of PX511 at [6725 - 6820] [34] PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,565 yuan per ton, down 55 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4,648 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low. New device production and the resumption of previous maintenance devices increase supply pressure. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is expected to boost demand. Supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [37] - **Strategy**: Close short positions. Look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees and go long on short - term dips [3] MEG - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,378 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4,319 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly reduce their load, and overseas devices change little. Import is low. There is a consumption season expectation, and demand improves. Inventory is low, but new device production expectations cause the market to fluctuate weakly [41] - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go short on rallies. Focus on the range of EG01 at [4255 - 4300] [42] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,317 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2,379 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: Methanol device maintenance increases, and supply pressure is high. Demand shows signs of stopping decline. Social inventory accumulates, and cost support stabilizes [45][46] - **Strategy**: Do not short firmly. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of MA01 at [2365 - 2400] [47] Urea - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Short - term supply is tight, but long - term supply is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. Inventory accumulates in factories and decreases in ports. Valuation is not high [4] - **Strategy**: The urea futures price is under pressure. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract in the medium - to long - term [4] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts drive up energy prices, and the approaching winter increases demand for natural gas [5] - **Strategy**: Cautiously bullish [5] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors boost the cost - end oil price, but asphalt supply is in excess, and the overall supply - demand is loose [5] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5] Glass - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, and enterprise inventory decreases. New production lines increase supply, and terminal demand is weak [5] - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish [5] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, and enterprise inventory decreases for three consecutive times. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and supply pressure is expected to ease [5] - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish, medium - to long - term bearish on rebounds [5]