投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-08 对等关税延期到期日临近，资金谨慎驱动有 色回落 有⾊观点：对等关税延期到期⽇临近，资⾦谨慎驱动有⾊回落 交易逻辑：美元偏弱势及6月制造业PMI数据改善，这对有色有提振， 但随着美国对等关税延期到期日临近，资金趋于谨慎诱发获利了结， 整体来看，市场情绪从乐观转向谨慎。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐 步季节性趋松，LME金属库存整体偏低，但国内库存去化逐步放缓。 中短期来看，市场关注点重新聚焦美国对等关税，弱美元和低库存对 价格有支撑，但关税不确定性及需求走弱预期压制价格，主要关注结 构性机会，谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸短多机会，中长期来看，基本金属需 求前景仍存在不确定性，可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期过剩品种的 逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：LME挤仓⻛险缓和，铜价⾼位回落。 氧化铝观点：仓单依然低位，氧化铝近⽉⼤涨。 铝观点：累库幅度仍待观察，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：淡季氛围显现，铝合⾦有所回调。 锌观点：供需偏过剩，锌价震荡偏弱。 铅观点：成本⽀撑稳固，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：美国对等关税扰动再起，短期镍价宽幅震荡。 不锈 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-8 原料偏弱拖累合成橡胶价格走低 油脂：昨日震荡偏弱，棕油抗跌 蛋⽩粕：供应压力主导，现货引领盘面下跌 ⽟⽶/淀粉：市场情绪偏差，期现弱势调整 ⽣猪：消费淡季约束，猪价冲高受阻 橡㬵：回落后企稳，短期下方空间有限 合成橡㬵：原料偏弱拖拽盘面走低 纸浆：走势僵持，维持弱势趋势未确认结束判断 棉花：棉价再次进入震荡僵局 ⽩糖：利多因素较为缺乏 原⽊：现货消化受限，短期仍偏弱运行 合成橡㬵观点：原料偏弱拖拽盘⾯⾛低 信息： （1）丁二烯橡胶两油标准交割品现货价格方面，两油山东市场价报11450 元/吨，-50；浙江传化市场价报11150元/吨，-130；烟台浩普市场价报11 100元/吨，-120。 （2）丁二烯国内现货价格，山东鲁中地区主流价报8850元/吨，平；江阴 出罐自提价报8650元/吨，+50。 逻辑：BR盘面于上周五大幅走跌，主要还是受到了在宏观偏强情绪偏强告 一段落后，来自原料丁二烯偏弱的影响。近期基本面交易不显著，更多还 是跟随天胶以及整体商品的波动变化。虽说近期并没有明显的基本面交易 逻辑，单边趋势不明显， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-8 4）中国财政部宣布，自7月6日起，在政府采购预算金额4500万元人 民币以上的医疗器械时，确需采购进口产品的，在履行法定程序后， 应当排除欧盟企业（不包括在华欧资企业）参与。 美元回暖，⾦价承压 金价周一跌至多日低点，接近3300美元，料主要受美元走强的影响。 重点资讯： 1）美国总统特朗普周日表示，美国即将在未来几天内敲定几项贸易 协定，并将在7月9日前通知其他几个国家更高的关税税率，并定于8 月1日生效。 2）中国央行6月黄金储备再增加7万盎司至7390万盎司，已连续八个 月增持；当月黄金储备对应的美元价值也环比增加9.4亿至2429.3亿 美元。不过整体来看，黄金在中国外汇储备中所占比例仍然偏低。 3）美国总统特朗普表示，美国将对任何与金砖国家 "反美政策 " 保持一致的国家额外征收10%的关税。 5）欧盟执委会发言人周一表示，欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩与美国总 统特朗普周日进行了 "良好的交流"，欧盟的目标仍然是在7月9日之 前与美国达成贸易协议。 价格逻辑： 金价周一跌至多日低点，接近3300美元，主要受美元 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/08 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Li Qiang attends the first-stage meeting of the 17th BRICS Leaders' Meetin ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the financial derivatives market is that stocks and bonds will maintain a volatile trend. In the short - term, all three markets of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures should be dealt with using a volatile mindset [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market had a narrow - range oscillation, with the All - A Index fluctuating less than 0.4%. Real estate and public utilities led the gains, while telecommunications and healthcare led the losses. There were 76 daily limit stocks, concentrated in concepts such as electricity and stablecoins. - Recently, the market has shown a trend of decreasing trading volume. Uncertainty from tariff news and profit - taking sentiment due to the decline of previous hot sectors have affected market confidence. In the short - term, it should be treated as a volatile market, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - IF, IH, IC, and IM's current - month contract basis points closed at - 20.17, - 17.93, - 41.21, and - 59.94 respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 1.77, - 0.49, - 3.97, and - 9.74 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts were 17.6, 5.2, 54.8, and 79.2 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 1.4, - 0.6, 1.6, and 3.6 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 22721, - 11893, - 15589, and - 30422 hands [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - Considering that some underlying assets reached local highs last week, there is a high risk of a phased correction at the beginning of this week. Although the underlying assets showed signs of correction, the amplitude was low yesterday, and the liquidity at the beginning of the week was weak, decreasing by more than 50% compared to last Friday. - The volatility of ChiNext ETF and 500ETF decreased significantly. For ChiNext ETF, the put - side volatility led the decline, indicating short - term put - position closing. For 500ETF options, the put - side increased while the call - side volatility decreased, suggesting a sign of building a collar strategy. - The sentiment of trading - type funds is neutral, and there is still an adjustment risk in the short - term. For volatility trend strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities when volatility spikes. In terms of varieties, 50 and 300ETF options have a higher safety margin. The main strategy should maintain covered calls to enhance returns in a volatile environment [2]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The T main contract opened slightly higher and strengthened, then adjusted with a decline in open interest, indicating strong profit - taking sentiment among market bulls. It rebounded in the afternoon but still maintained a low - level oscillation overall. - The central bank net - withdrew more than 200 billion yuan yesterday, and the overnight repurchase rate slightly increased, indicating that the capital interest rate may be bottoming out, which may cause some disturbances to the cash - bond market. - However, the June manufacturing PMI was still below the boom - bust line, and tariff policies are still uncertain. New factors such as the introduction of new quantitative regulations in the stock market may also affect risk appetite. Therefore, the bond market may also be supported, and a volatile mindset should be adopted in the short - term [3]. - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter was 49192, 59821, 35462, and 55668 hands respectively, with a one - day change of - 11647, 16847, 9275, and - 15984 hands. The open interest was 216298, 157986, 115517, and 122562 hands respectively, with a one - day change of 2158, 81, - 1682, and - 16 hands [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On July 7, 2025, the annual growth rate of retail sales in the Eurozone in May was 1.8%, with a previous value of 2.3% and a forecast value of 1.2%. - On July 9, China will release the annual growth rate of CPI and PPI in June, with forecast values of 0% and - 3.2% respectively. - On July 10, China will release the annual growth rate of M2 money supply in June, with a forecast value of 8.2%, as well as the cumulative new RMB loans and social financing scale in June [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were launched today and successfully raised funds, approaching or exceeding the 3 - billion - yuan fundraising limit. After their establishment, they are expected to bring 30 billion yuan in new scale, and the scale of bond ETFs will soon exceed 400 billion yuan. - The State Council Information Office will hold a series of press conferences on "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan". The first press conference will be held on July 9. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that many positions in the negotiation have changed, and multiple new proposals were received last night. He expects to announce trade - related news within 48 hours. He announced that the overall tariff on Vietnam will be increased to 20%, and that the positions of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve will follow the president's wishes [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "oscillating", including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese [7][10][12][14][15]. Core Viewpoints - The black spot market has been mediocre recently, with capital issues not significantly alleviated and weak terminal demand making it difficult for spot prices to rise. The futures market is more driven by expectations, and with the improving domestic and international macro - environment, the overall commodity valuation has increased. The furnace materials with relatively more certain demand perform better than finished products. After the price spike, it is advisable to wait and see for the next two weeks to observe the sustainability of steel demand [1]. - The "anti - involution" - related production cut expectations' positive impact has temporarily ended. The price increase has affected the export orders of finished products, and the spot price increase is weak. The black futures prices have slightly corrected. The industrial fundamentals are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the degree of demand weakening [2]. Summary by Variety Steel - Core Logic: On July 4, 2025, Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01 - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils, and the US President will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline. High prices have limited downstream purchasing willingness. After the rainy season, the supply and demand of rebar have both increased, and the inventory has continued to decline; the supply of hot - rolled coils has increased while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and the inventory change is limited [7]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of steel are not prominent, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariff disturbances are continuous. After the steel price increase, the steel export pressure shows signs of marginal weakening. It is expected that the short - term steel price will oscillate [7]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: This week, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter production rush, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but is lower than expected. The steel enterprises' iron water output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrival volume and high demand, the port inventory has slightly decreased [7]. - Outlook: The iron ore demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradictions are not obvious. After this round of increase, the futures price has reached an important pressure level. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate in the short - term [7]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the demand has also declined. The long - and short - process total daily consumption of scrap steel has decreased, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased [8]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both weakened marginally, and it is expected that the price will oscillate after the macro - environment cools down [8]. Coke - Core Logic: The supply and demand of coke have both declined. Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, while a small number have reduced production due to profit pressure. The steel mills' iron water output has decreased, but the demand for coke remains strong [10]. - Outlook: There is an expectation of a price increase in the coke market. It is expected that the short - term futures price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the iron water output and coal mine resumption [10]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Two coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, and the overall supply is gradually recovering. The Mongolian coal port transactions are active, but the port will be closed from this Friday to next Tuesday. The short - term demand for coking coal remains, but the market is waiting and seeing due to the expectation of coal mine resumption [10]. - Outlook: The coal mine supply is expected to recover, but the short - term demand remains strong. It is expected that the short - term futures price will oscillate [10]. Glass - Core Logic: In the off - season, the demand for glass has decreased, and the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line is planned to resume production. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and the market is mainly in a wait - and - see state [12]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, and the futures price has rebounded due to the expected production cuts. In the short - term, the positive feedback may be strong, but in the long - term, it still needs market - based capacity reduction. It is expected that the price will oscillate [12]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply capacity of soda ash has not been cleared, and the supply pressure remains. The heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand, while the light - soda ash demand is weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [12]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern of soda ash has not changed. There are planned maintenance in July. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the price center will decline in the long - term [12]. Ferromanganese - Core Logic: The price of manganese ore has slightly decreased. The supply of ferromanganese has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand is expected to decline slightly as the steel production may decrease in the off - season [14]. - Outlook: The cost push is insufficient, and the supply - demand relationship of ferromanganese is becoming looser. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term [14]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost of ferrosilicon is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand from the steel and metal magnesium industries has uncertainties. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but the future supply - demand gap may be filled [15]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, but the price increase driving force is insufficient. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls in the US postponed market bets on Fed rate cuts, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit pressure. There are concerns in the US employment market, with an increase in the proportion of permanent unemployment and continued rise in continuing jobless claims, along with slowing wage growth. The "Big and Beautiful" bill may have limited long - term economic boost but will add $3.3 trillion to the US deficit over the next 10 years [5]. - Domestic macro: China's economic fundamentals are showing resilience with an upward trend. The "anti - involution" policy combined with low prices has driven short - term rebounds in commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon. The June manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activities have improved. The "anti - involution" policy has a significant impact on domestic - demand - oriented commodities and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For major asset classes, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. There is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern will continue. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas**: The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls in the US postponed rate - cut bets, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the deficit. There are concerns in the employment market [5]. - **Domestic**: Economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti - involution" policy has led to short - term rebounds in some commodities, and the June PMI data shows improvement [5]. - **Asset Outlook**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas risks such as tariff frictions should be watched. A strategic allocation to gold is recommended [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial and Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are expected, and short - term fiscal policies will be implemented as planned [7]. - **Overseas**: Inflation expectations are flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling [7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Anti - involution competition is boosting policy expectations, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: A defensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is warming up, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Supply disturbances are increasing, and the market is showing strength, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore production is decreasing, and port inventories are slightly decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Coke**: Fundamentals are improving, and cost support is strong, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is slowly recovering, and upstream inventories are decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Policy expectations are rising, and the market is strongly rising, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the market is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Glass**: Far - month expectations are being repaired, and inventories are slightly decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: LME inventories are low, and copper prices are high, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Alumina**: The "anti - involution" policy has stimulated market sentiment, and the market has risen strongly, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Aluminum/Zinc**: Aluminum prices are oscillating strongly, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly, with short - term outlooks of volatility and volatile decline respectively [7]. - **Lead**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Nickel**: The industrial product market is improving, and nickel prices are strong in the short term, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Market sentiment is boosting, and the market is rising, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Tin**: Supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - side policy expectations are positive, and silicon prices are oscillating upwards, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by demand expectations and sentiment, lithium prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **LPG**: The market is trading based on loose fundamentals, and the PG market may be weakly volatile, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **Asphalt**: OPEC+ over - production in August has weakened asphalt futures prices, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ over - production has strengthened the weakness of high - sulfur fuel oil, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - high sulfur spread is rebounding, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang price is weakening, and methanol is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Urea**: The domestic supply - demand situation is difficult to change, and urea may oscillate in the short term, relying on exports [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The basis is stable, and plants are restarting, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - **PX**: Crude oil is stable, and PX is oscillating strongly, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, and the cost of PX is strong, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The basis is falling, and processing fees are rising, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance is starting, and processing fees have bottomed out, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **PP**: Important meetings have boosted market expectations, and PP is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Plastic**: The "anti - involution" policy has slightly boosted the market, and plastic is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Styrene**: There is a lack of driving factors, and styrene is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **PVC**: Low valuation and weak supply - demand, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market is weakly stable, and caustic soda is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The market was weakly volatile yesterday, and palm oil is more resistant to decline, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure dominates, and the spot market is leading the decline, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market sentiment is poor, and the market is in a weak adjustment, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Rubber**: After a decline, it has stabilized, with limited downward space in the short term, and a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak raw materials have dragged down the market, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Pulp**: The market is in a stalemate, and the downward trend has not been confirmed to end, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are in a new round of oscillation, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Sugar**: There is a lack of positive factors, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Timber**: Spot digestion is limited, and the market is still weakly operating in the short term, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9].

Report Summary Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoint The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 27th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress and scale changes of various types of bonds. Key Points by Bond Type New Special Bonds - As of July 6, the issuance progress of new special bonds is 49.2% [2] - As of July 6, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in July is 2.9 billion [3] - This week, the issuance of new special bonds is 5.08 billion, a decrease of 37.15 billion from the previous week [20] New General Bonds - As of July 6, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 56.5% [6] - As of July 6, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in July is 0 [3] - This week, the issuance of new general bonds is 660 million, a decrease of 5.06 billion from the previous week [4] Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds is 2.17 billion, a decrease of 53.87 billion from the previous week [8] - As of July 6, the issuance progress of new local bonds is 50.3% [8] Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds is 19.99 billion, an increase of 8.89 billion from the previous week [12] - As of July 6, the net financing progress of treasury bonds is 53.3% [14] Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds is 22.16 billion, a decrease of 44.98 billion from the previous week [16] - As of July 6, the progress of treasury bond net financing + new local bond issuance is 52.0% [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls in the US postponed market bets on Fed rate cuts, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years, and there are concerns in the US employment market [6]. - Domestic macro: China's economic fundamentals are showing resilience with an upward trend. The "anti-involution" policy has driven short-term rebounds in commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon [6]. - Asset views: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a strengthened policy-driven logic. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern will continue, and strategic allocation to resources such as gold is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The June non-farm payrolls in the US were better than expected, but there are concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the deficit [6]. - Domestic: China's economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti-involution" policy has affected domestic commodities [6]. - Asset views: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas, attention should be paid to various risks. Long-term weak US dollar and strategic allocation to non-US dollar assets are recommended [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial and Metal Markets - Macro: Overseas stagflation trading has cooled, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. Domestic assets have structural opportunities [8]. - Financial: The bullish sentiment in stocks and bonds has declined. Most financial products are expected to fluctuate [8]. - Precious metals: Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment, with an expected volatile trend [8]. - Shipping: The sentiment has declined, and the sustainability of the increase in the June loading rate should be monitored. The container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Black building materials: Supply disturbances have increased, and black commodities have rebounded significantly, with most products expected to fluctuate [8]. - Non - ferrous and new materials: The low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations coexist, and non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemical Markets - Energy and chemicals: Affected by European extreme weather, the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate. Most products are expected to have a volatile trend, with some showing upward or downward trends [11]. - Agriculture: The improvement in the macro - environment has driven the rebound of agricultural products. The market will continue to pay attention to policies such as the US biodiesel policy [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 3, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, most commodity futures closed higher, and some agricultural products declined [12][15]. - The top three gainers were coking coal, iron ore, and poly - silicon, while the top three decliners were rapeseed, TSR 20, and Chinese jujube [13][14][15]. - For coking coal, supply is expected to gradually recover, and the market will maintain a loose supply - demand pattern with short - term fluctuations [18][23]. - For crude oil, low - inventory and geopolitical concerns drive the price up, but the previous high may be hard to reach again, and the market may fluctuate with inventory accumulation [26][29]. - For lithium carbonate, supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports prices, which are expected to remain range - bound [33][37]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - On July 3, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, most commodity futures closed higher, and some agricultural products declined [12][15]. - The top three gainers were coking coal (up 3.8% with 1.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), iron ore (up 2.4% with 1.3% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and poly - silicon (up 2.1% with 19.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [13][15]. - The top three decliners were rapeseed (down 1.8% with 17.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), TSR 20 (down 1.2% with 5.7% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and Chinese jujube (down 1.1% with 5.6% month - on - month increase in open interest) [14][15]. 3.1.2 Daily Rise (上涨品种) 3.1.2.1 Coking Coal (焦煤) - On July 3, coking coal increased by 3.8% to 856 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to gradually recover, and the market will maintain a loose supply - demand pattern, with short - term fluctuations predicted [18][23]. - The central conference improved market sentiment. Some coal mines in Shanxi may suspend or limit production, while others are resuming production, but the overall supply recovery is slow. Import customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port is low, and the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal is about to be lowered [19][20][23]. - Coke output is stable with a slight decrease, and rising costs squeeze coke enterprises' profits, with an expected further decline in the operating rate. Short - term rigid demand exists, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and upstream coal mines are destocking [21][23]. 3.1.2.2 Crude Oil (原油) - On July 3, crude oil increased by 1.6% to 506.3 yuan/barrel. Low - inventory and geopolitical concerns are the triggers for the price rise, but the previous high may be hard to reach again, and the market may fluctuate with inventory accumulation [26][29]. - OPEC's production in June increased by 360,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2.801 million barrels per day, with several countries including Saudi Arabia increasing production [27][29]. - The EIA inventory report shows an increase in total petroleum inventories. Also, due to the heatwave in Europe, there is an expectation of increased demand for oil - fired power generation [28][29]. 3.1.2.3 Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂) - On July 3, lithium carbonate increased by 0.9% to 64080 yuan/ton. Supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports prices, which are expected to remain range - bound [33][37]. - Market sentiment is positive, with good demand production schedule expectations and low warehouse receipts. Supply shows a month - on - month increase in weekly output, domestic lithium mine production grows, but imported lithium salts may decline. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan [34][37][38]. - From January to June, domestic cathode material production maintained growth. July is a traditional off - season, but demand production schedule expectations are good, and leading enterprises show signs of purchasing. Social inventories accumulate, while warehouse receipt inventories are destocked, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short positions at highs [35][36][38]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观新闻) - The Ministry of Commerce responded to reports of the US President planning to visit China with a business delegation, stating no information to provide but hoping for joint efforts to promote China - US economic and trade relations [40][41]. - China's Caixin Services PMI for June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May, with the prosperity level declining to the lowest since Q4 2024 [40][41]. - The US government lifted export restrictions on EDA to China, canceling some export license requirements for Chinese chip design software [40][41].