1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 616.8 yuan/gram, with a 6.02% increase; the palladium main contract was 471.9 yuan/gram, with a 5.16% increase [1] - Due to weak US dollar and geopolitical risks, platinum is expected to maintain a strong trend, while palladium may continue to rise due to geopolitical risks and spot shortages [1][2] - The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, and the hydrogen energy industry is an important growth point in the future [1] - Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the bottom of the palladium price has certain support [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum Main Logic - Trump may announce the next Fed Chair candidate in January, and the future interest - rate cut path is still optimistic; the geopolitical risk has fermented again after the US military raid in Venezuela on January 3, which may further intensify price fluctuations [1] - By the close on January 6, the premium of the domestic closing time of the GFEX platinum main contract over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 26.6 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference has significantly converged [1] - South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks of power supply and extreme weather in the future [1] - The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase. The demand in the automotive catalyst field remains relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and the demand for jewelry and investment is expanding. The combination of "interest - rate cut + soft landing" will further amplify the long - term price elasticity [1] Outlook - With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, the price may continue to have wide - range fluctuations, and investors should trade cautiously. They can pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying after sufficient adjustment [2] - Regarding arbitrage strategies, wait for the price difference to widen again and then continue to pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage opportunity; when the price difference between platinum and palladium converges, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium [2] Palladium Main Logic - The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report is not yet released, resulting in a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions [2] - Palladium shows significant structural pressure in demand. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle provides support for the bottom of the palladium price [2] Outlook - With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the palladium price is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short term, the price fluctuations intensify, and investors should trade cautiously [2] - For arbitrage strategies, take profit on the internal - external positive arbitrage temporarily and participate in going long on platinum and shorting on palladium opportunistically [2] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index is not detailed. The special indices include the Commodity Index (2387.24, +2.43%), the Commodity 20 Index (2730.32, +2.47%), and the Industrial Products Index (2317.00, +2.19%) [47] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On January 6, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2838.75, with a daily increase of 5.69%, a 5 - day increase of 6.06%, a 1 - month increase of 10.36%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.69% [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation", with some varieties having specific ratings such as "oscillation", "oscillation - biased upward", and "oscillation - biased downward" [5] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's emphasis on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery has led to a warm macro - sentiment. There are still expectations of hot metal复产 and pre - holiday restocking, with iron ore prices remaining strong and coal and coke prices recovering from lows. The fundamentals of steel in the off - season have limited highlights, but cost support is strong, and the futures prices have rebounded from lows. The glass and soda ash futures follow the sector and perform strongly [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have limited highlights. Before the Spring Festival, continue to focus on the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and furnace material prices still have the potential to rise from lows, but the upside space is restricted by steel mill profits [5] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: The port inventory is continuously accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. There is an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The复产 of hot metal and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks upward momentum, but the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, which supports demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the coke supply - demand structure may gradually tighten. The space for further spot price cuts is limited, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [2] - Coking coal: As the year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in futures and spot prices [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand for manganese silicon continues, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price may gradually fall back to the cost valuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the upstream supply pressure of ferrosilicon has been relieved, and the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The short - term futures price is expected to remain high. However, if the spot price is significantly adjusted upwards due to the influence of futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][4] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Specific Varieties - Steel: The cost is strong, and the futures price has rebounded from lows. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak. Although the fundamentals of rebar still have resilience and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils still exists, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [7][8] - Iron ore: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures and spot prices are rising. The supply side has expectations of disturbances, and the demand side has an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. The ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Scrap steel: Steel mills' arrivals are at a low level, and the price oscillates. The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, so the price is expected to oscillate [10] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures price first weakens and then strengthens. The cost side has stabilized, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [12][13] - Coking coal: The online auctions show mixed results, and the night - session futures of commodities generally rise. As the year approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is upward momentum in prices [14] - Glass: The commodity sentiment has recovered, and the valuation premium has rebounded. The supply has expectations of disturbances, and the inventory is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15] - Soda ash: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the sentiment drives the valuation to repair. The supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center will decline in the long run [17] - Manganese silicon: The upstream supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel tender prices. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price may fall back to the cost valuation in the medium term [18] - Ferrosilicon: The electricity cost in Shaanxi is increasing, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The upstream supply pressure has been relieved, but attention should be paid to the potential resurgence of supply pressure [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Based on the gradually increasing policy expectations in China, it is recommended to emphasize the offensiveness of portfolio allocation under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Long - position overweight is recommended for stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short term and overweighted at low levels after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, the driving logics in the quarterly dimension vary: the domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts; treasury bonds can be considered for bull - steepening opportunities under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited, and a standard allocation is generally recommended; precious metals have high short - term volatility, and investors are advised to build positions at low levels after volatility stabilizes; non - ferrous metals perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry; black commodities return to a weak and oscillatory state after the rebound driven by winter storage; crude oil is generally oscillatory and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination for the new Fed Chair in January. Hassett is the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The geopolitical event in Venezuela over the weekend has a relatively limited short - term positive effect on crude oil and precious metals. Venezuela has about 17% of the world's oil reserves but its actual daily output is only about 1 million barrels, accounting for 1% of the global supply [5]. - **Domestic**: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released, with some optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budget investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and approved or approved major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: It is recommended to overweight. The domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to maintain a standard allocation. There are opportunities for bull - steepening under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Standard - allocate in the short term due to high volatility, and overweight at low levels after volatility stabilizes. The short - term positive effect of the Venezuela event on precious metals is limited, and they may show a high - opening and falling - back trend if the conflict does not escalate [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Overweight. They perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry [5]. - **Black Commodities**: After the rebound driven by winter storage, they return to a weak and oscillatory state [5]. - **Crude Oil**: Stay on the sidelines as it is generally oscillatory [5]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the liquidity of the option market [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the implementation of monetary policy [6]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and the structural shortage of silver spot persists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and the trend of geopolitical conflicts [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The near - term is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and the far - term is concerned about the risk of resumed voyages. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the 2026 shipping company's resumption arrangements, the freight rates of long - term contracts signed at the end of the year, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments to freight rates [6]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, and the market is in a weak adjustment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, iron - making water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - making water production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics [6]. - **Coke**: Four rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the bearish sentiment still exists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mines in the production area are gradually resuming production, but downstream procurement is still cautious. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Silicon Iron**: The electricity price has slightly loosened, and attention should be paid to production control trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the upward movement of the market is blocked. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and inventory is continuously transferred. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the spot sales and production [6]. - **Soda Ash**: After the end of maintenance, production has recovered, and the upstream inventory has increased significantly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the soda ash inventory [6]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected resumption of ore production, more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - **Lead**: The willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices are rebounding. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel market to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [6]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the expectations of resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices are rising. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and policy changes [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices are under oscillatory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to oscillate. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - **Asphalt**: The political turmoil in Venezuela causes the asphalt futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the crude oil price [8]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions occur frequently, and methanol is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - **Urea**: After - holiday trading is active, and urea is stable and strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force of ethylene glycol is general. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are fluctuations in coal and oil prices and the rhythm of port inventory [8]. - **PX**: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and it is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and disruptions in refining and chemical plants [8]. - **PTA**: The TA processing fee is at the upper end of the range, and the continuous upward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: More device maintenance is scheduled in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprise production - cut targets and sea freight [8]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [8]. - **PP**: Maintenance increases, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is considered oscillatory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Styrene**: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - **PVC**: Overseas device shutdowns cause PVC to rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are decreasing. Caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are adjusting downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are customs policies, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Trading is gradually resuming, and prices are oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are demand, the macro - situation, and weather [8]. - **Hogs**: The sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures market rebounded. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market maintains an oscillatory trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is sharp fluctuations in crude oil [8]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are production and demand [8]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are fluctuating within a narrow range and are still under pressure in the medium term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and falling, and the key points to watch are imports and northern hemisphere production [8]. - **Pulp**: The market is driven by funds and the macro - situation, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [8]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The spot is stable, and the market is strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sales and production, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are shipment volume and dispatch volume [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are disturbing the energy and chemical market, and the chemical industry as a whole will continue its volatile pattern. The prices of various products are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost support, showing different trends [4]. 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to cause disruptions, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. The actual reduction in Venezuelan crude oil exports is still uncertain, API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories but an increase in gasoline and diesel inventories. OPEC +'s production expectations for the first quarter are stable, but the geopolitical situations in Iran and Venezuela are the core factors affecting supply expectations [8][9]. - **Asphalt**: As the political situation in Venezuela stabilizes, asphalt futures prices will decline. The supply interruption expectation of asphalt raw materials will be alleviated, asphalt supply and demand are both weak, inventory is accumulating, and its valuation compared to some products is relatively high [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. However, high - sulfur fuel oil faces medium - to long - term double negatives from high - floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil demand by natural gas and photovoltaics [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices will fluctuate. It follows the trend of crude oil, has a certain support, but also faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [12]. - **Methanol**: Due to the turbulent situation in the Middle East, methanol will rise strongly. The market is affected by overseas supply disruptions and high inventory pressure, but the methanol market based on coastal trading logic is still considered strong [27]. - **Urea**: New orders are actively traded. The release of the India tender has boosted market sentiment, and urea prices will be moderately strong. The supply is increasing, demand from some regions is rising, and the market is in a moderately strong state, but the upside space during the off - season is limited [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Geopolitical instability brings uncertainties to the supply side. Cost support is significant, but with the approaching Spring Festival, demand is expected to decline, and the price will be range - bound in the short term [20]. - **PX**: Geopolitical factors boost international oil prices, providing cost support for PX. In the short term, PX supply is expected to return, downstream polyester load is stable, and PX prices are expected to be sorted in a high - level range [13]. - **PTA**: Cost support and a positive chemical market sentiment strengthen the support for PTA prices. After the post - holiday maintenance devices return to production, the supply - demand relationship is marginally weaker, and the processing fee is slightly reduced [14][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Cost provides some support, but demand is not sustainable, and profits are under pressure. Although the cost of upstream polyester raw materials is rising, the short - fiber's own supply - demand drive is weak, and it is in the off - season [22][23]. - **Bottle - Chip**: More device overhauls are scheduled in January, and the basis is strong. The cost is rising, but downstream buyers are waiting and watching. The increase in overhauls enhances the support for profits [24]. - **Plastic**: The weak basis restricts the upside space of plastics. Although the futures price has rebounded slightly due to macro - expectations and low - valuation varieties, the spot is weak, and demand is in the off - season [31][32]. - **PP**: The increase in overhauls makes PP prices rise cautiously. Affected by oil prices and geopolitical factors, the downstream is in the off - season, and the focus is on PDH in the future [33]. - **PL**: Supported by the expectation of PDH overhauls, PL prices will fluctuate. The spot trading atmosphere has improved, but downstream demand support is limited during the off - season [33]. - **PVC**: Frequent supply disruptions lead to a strong rebound in PVC. Geopolitical factors may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. There are positive factors such as overseas device outages and expected increases in electricity costs, but the downstream is in the off - season [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Positive market sentiment drives caustic soda prices. Geopolitical factors may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. The expected increase in electricity costs for restricted - capacity caustic soda production in Shaanxi has boosted market sentiment, but the market is also facing problems such as high inventory [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.41 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 26 with a change of - 12 [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is - 74 with a change of - 11, and the number of warehouse receipts is 27920 [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 564 with a change of - 141 [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific content for each variety is mentioned, no detailed data or summaries are provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and PPI commodity index all show positive growth rates on January 6, 2026 [284]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on January 6, 2026, has a daily increase of 0.03%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.16%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.54%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.03% [285].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: Trump may announce the nomination for the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. Hassett is the most likely candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The geopolitical event in Venezuela over the weekend has limited short - term positive effects on crude oil and precious metals due to its low supply share [6]. - Domestic: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, and the 2026 national subsidy policy has been optimized. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued relevant project lists and investment plans, and approved major infrastructure projects, which may stabilize the investment side in the first quarter [6]. - Asset Views: Based on the rising domestic policy expectations, an offensive approach can be emphasized in the "balanced allocation" strategy. It is recommended to overweight stock index and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin) on the long side. Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short - term and overweighted when volatility stabilizes. Different asset classes have different quarterly drivers [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Stock Index Futures: All major stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) showed positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date returns, with increases ranging from 2.11% to 3.17% [3]. - Bond Futures: 2 - year, 5 - year, and 30 - year bond futures had negative returns, while 10 - year bond futures remained unchanged [3]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index had a 0.19% monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase. The euro - US dollar exchange rate and the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had some fluctuations [3]. - Interest Rates: There were changes in various interest rates, such as a 1bp increase in the 10 - year US Treasury yield and a - 0.5bp change in the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield [3]. - Industry Indexes: Different industries had different performance. For example, the comprehensive finance industry had a 13.08% year - to - date increase, while the power equipment and new energy industry had a 35.94% year - to - date increase but a - 2.61% daily decline [3]. - Overseas Commodities: Energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products all showed different price movements. For example, COMEX silver had a 1.81% daily increase, while NYMEX natural gas had a - 1.89% daily decrease [3]. Sector - by - Sector Short - Term Judgments - Financial Sector: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options to be volatile, and bond futures to be volatile [7]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner [7]. - Shipping: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to be volatile [7]. - Black Building Materials: Most products in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to be volatile [7]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Most base metals are expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase, with some like copper, aluminum, and tin expected to rise in a volatile manner [7]. - Energy and Chemicals: Most products in this sector, including crude oil, LPG, and asphalt, are expected to be volatile, with some like methanol expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. - Agriculture: Products such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and cotton are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while products like sugar are expected to decline in a volatile manner [9].

中信期货有限公司_美国10月炼厂开工偏低,柴油需求 CITIC Futures Company Limited 5虫匀 -EIA石油月度供应报告 研究员: 李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 EIA2025年12月石油供应报告对美国10月产需情况进行确认。10月美国原油产量1387万桶/日，环比增8.5万桶/日，产量韧性继续体现。10月美 国汽油及航煤需求小幅回升、柴油需求强劲走高至同期高位，炼厂因季节性检修及意外停车偏多，月度净进科明显走低，与前期EIA周受数据的指 向较为一致。 风险提示:地缘冲突,美国对外制裁政策,OPEC+产量政策。 图表 1: 美国石油产品月度总需求 图表 2: 美国汽油月度需求 -2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 22000 21000 20000 19000 18000 17500 11月 2月 6月 7月 1月 3月 4月 5月 8月 9月 10月 12月 - 2025 - - 2022 - 2021 - 2024 - 2023 9300 9000 8700 8400 8100 7800 7500 8月 7月 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price continues to show a strong trend, and considering the continuous disruptions in copper mine supply, the copper price may continue its upward momentum. It is recommended to continue to focus on long positions in copper [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The copper price continues to be strong. The Shanghai copper price has exceeded 105,000 yuan/ton, and the London copper price has exceeded $13,000/ton. Capstone Copper announced that a union strike at its Mantoverde mine in Chile will involve about 22% of the labor force, and the mine's output during the strike is expected to drop to 30% of the normal level, with an annual output of about 50,000 tons. Tongling Nonferrous disclosed that the second - phase project of the Dorimilado copper plant under its subsidiary has officially suspended production due to the overdue signing of the mining contract, further exacerbating the tightness of copper mine supply [2] Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions continue to increase. The production cut at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the delayed commissioning of Tongling Nonferrous' copper mine have tightened the supply. In 2028, the long - term processing fee for copper mines has reached a record low of $0/ton. Chinese copper enterprises plan to reduce expanded production capacity by over 10% in 2026, and Congo has emphasized optimizing copper smelting capacity, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. On the demand side, with the arrival of the off - season, terminal demand remains weak and inventories continue to accumulate. However, with the strengthening of the supply contraction expectation, the copper market is shifting from oversupply to tightness, and the overall supply - demand expectation is optimistic [3] Summary and Strategy - Looking ahead, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, the dollar remains weak, which significantly supports the copper price. Given the continuous disruptions in copper mine supply, the copper price may continue its upward trend, and it is advisable to focus on long positions in copper [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Potential [4] - Silver: Potential [4] - Lead: Potential [4] - Zinc: Potential [4] - Platinum: On hold [4] - Palladium: On hold [4] Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative, with the USD index ranging between 95 - 102, and the RMB may show a stable upward trend, ranging from 6.8 - 7.2 [6]. - For cross - border arbitrage of various commodities, different strategies are recommended based on market conditions such as price differences, inventory changes, and exchange rate expectations [4][5]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets fluctuated, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread declined. This week, given the relatively high valuation of the price difference and the expected RMB appreciation, it is recommended to go long COMEX and short SHFE [12][13]. - **Silver**: Last week, the domestic - foreign silver price difference rose and then fell, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread decreased. This week, due to the high - level price difference, the tight overseas spot market, and the expected RMB appreciation, it is recommended to go long COMEX and short SHFE [19][20]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Last week, the price gap between platinum and palladium narrowed significantly, and the previous high premium was largely restored. This week, it is recommended to close the long/short positions and take profits, and put the positions on hold [26][33]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: In the off - season of demand, domestic copper inventory is still accumulating, and the copper import window remains in a loss state. Cross - market arbitrage is recommended to be on hold [40]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingots are accumulating, while LME aluminum inventory is decreasing. The short - term exchange ratio fluctuates within a range, and cross - market arbitrage is on hold [45]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, priced - locked zinc ingots will continue to be imported, and domestic zinc inventory has room to decline, while LME zinc inventory is rising. It is recommended to go long SHFE and short LME [54]. - **Lead**: Domestic lead ingot social inventory may rise, LME lead inventory is decreasing, and the lead ingot import window is open. It is recommended to go long LME lead and short SHFE lead [60]. - **Nickel**: The import window remains open, the balance ratio has slightly declined, and domestic and foreign inventories are at relatively high levels. Cross - market arbitrage is on hold [61]. - **Tin**: The domestic - foreign tin price ratio fluctuated, the spot tin import window is closed, and the import loss is 15,368 yuan/ton. Cross - market arbitrage is on hold [65]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [69]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The SC - Brent price spread has been fluctuating. Due to the weakening of Middle - East crude oil spot, high geopolitical uncertainties, and the significant decline in freight rates, it is recommended to wait and see [73][74]. - **Natural Gas**: The price difference between Europe and the US fluctuated. With expected mild temperatures in January, gas prices in Europe and the US are weak. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the opportunity of spread narrowing when the US gas price rebounds [109]. Agriculturals - **Soybean**: The crushing profit has been fluctuating at the bottom. Due to the slow progress of Chinese purchases, US soybeans showed a weak downward trend, promoting the recovery of profit levels. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [79]. - **Sugar**: Both the domestic and foreign markets rebounded at low levels, and the price difference fluctuated within a narrow range. In the short term, due to the difficulty in increasing imports, the driving force for spread convergence is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [83]. - **Natural Rubber**: There were no major changes last week, and the spread was in the non - arbitrage range. Supply is expected to increase, but demand has not improved. It is recommended to wait and see [88]. Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: The negative impact of the Fed's hawkish stance in December has been digested. With the upcoming change of the Fed chair and the strengthening of gold and silver prices, the COMEX - LME copper spread may rise. Also, the expected US copper tariff limits the spread's downside. It is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: The Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS has been fluctuating. Due to the weakening of Middle - East crude oil spot and the resilient US production, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100]. - **WTI - Brent**: The WTI - Brent spread has been fluctuating. Although freight rates have declined significantly, the high - level operation of US refineries, stable US crude oil production, and high geopolitical uncertainties limit the spread's driving force. It is recommended to wait and see [105][106]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: The price difference has been fluctuating. With expected mild temperatures in January, gas prices in Europe and the US are weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of spread narrowing when the US gas price rebounds [109].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weakening marginally, but the long - term outlook is positive. With frequent supply disruptions and positive market sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog New Price Dynamics and Reasons On January 5th, the lithium carbonate futures price soared. The main contract rose significantly. The reasons are strong market sentiment as some funds re - entered the market after the holiday, and concerns about South American lithium resources supply due to the geopolitical issues in Venezuela during the New Year's Day. The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" issued on January 4th also affected market sentiment. [1][2] Fundamental Situation The current demand for lithium carbonate is marginally weakening, but the long - term demand forecast is strong, and the supply remains high. The market game has a large impact on prices. The concentrated maintenance of several leading cathode material manufacturers in January will lead to weaker demand and increased inventory. However, the price is still expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive market sentiment and long - term optimism. The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" may affect the pace of capacity release, and the beneficiation capacity in Sichuan may become a bottleneck in 2026. [3] Summary and Strategy Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weakening marginally, the long - term expectation is good. With frequent supply disruptions and positive capital sentiment, the price will mainly fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips. [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-06 弱美元与地缘政治风险发酵，铂钯走势 偏强 2026年1⽉5⽇GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为583.95元/克，涨幅6.48%；钯 主⼒合约收盘价为452.85元/克，涨幅8.88%。 铂观点：美联储独立性+地缘政治风险发酵，铂金走势偏强 主要逻辑：特朗普近期表示，有可能解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔，并在1 月公布下一任美联储主席人选。此外，1月3日凌晨，美军对委内瑞拉首都 加拉加斯等地发动突袭，抓捕总统马杜罗夫妇并带至美国纽约，地缘政治 风险再度发酵，或进一步加剧价格波动。至1月5日收盘，广期所铂金主力 合约国内收盘时点与NYMEX铂金（含税）溢价22.2元/克，内外价差大幅收 敛，内外正套建议暂时获利了结。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂 族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方 面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳 定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软 着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价 ...