1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals have a corrective rebound after previous sharp fluctuations, with gold returning near the key integer level and silver rising synchronously but with greater elasticity. The short - term trading logic shifts from a unilateral trend to a structural re - balance under high volatility, and the replenishment of allocation and hedging funds supports the price. Macroeconomic and policy uncertainties remain the core background [1] - Gold stabilizes and recovers in high - level oscillations, and the medium - term long - position logic is not broken. It is likely to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations before macro data forms a consistent direction, and is supported by official gold purchases and the US dollar credit logic in the medium term [2] - Silver's volatility significantly increases, following gold's recovery but at a faster pace. It is likely to oscillate strongly in the short term but needs to be wary of technical pull - backs after a rapid rise, and its medium - term trend depends on the overall precious metal allocation demand and macro - risk pricing [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **View**: Gold stabilizes and recovers in high - level oscillations, and the medium - term long - position logic is not broken [2] - **Logic**: After the previous de - leveraging and emotional stampede, gold gets allocation orders near the key price level. Official demand continues, and its high tolerance for price fluctuations compresses the downside space. Overseas, the market continues to trade around US employment and inflation data, and discussions on the Fed's policy path and independence repeatedly disturb real interest rates and the US dollar, which is beneficial to gold's defensive and allocation attributes [2] - **Outlook**: Before macro data forms a consistent direction, gold is more likely to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations. Attention should be paid to the support strength of allocation funds during the correction phase, and it is still supported by official gold purchases and the US dollar credit logic in the medium term [2] 3.2 Silver - **View**: Silver's volatility significantly increases, following gold's recovery but at a faster pace [3] - **Logic**: After a rapid decline, silver has a large rebound, showing stronger trading attributes. The inventory structure and fund behavior dominate the short - term trend. During the overall sentiment recovery phase of precious metals, silver has a leading elasticity but is less stable than gold. In a high - volatility environment, the inflow and outflow of funds have a more direct impact on the silver price [3] - **Outlook**: Silver is likely to oscillate strongly in the short term following gold, but it needs to be wary of technical pull - backs after a rapid rise. Its medium - term trend depends on the overall precious metal allocation demand and macro - risk pricing [3] 3.3 Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index is 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial products index is 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.35, up 0.58% [44] - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 9, 2026, the precious metals index is 4200.39, with a daily increase of 3.78%, a 5 - day increase of 0.91%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.84% [45]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures are expected to be volatile and moderately strong; for stock index options, the rating is volatile; for treasury bond futures, the rating indicates a moderately strong trend in the medium - term and a need for short - term caution [5][6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Stock index futures followed the external market rebound. The A - share market's rise was related to the global risk - asset sentiment repair on Friday. Before the holiday, the probability of a rapid rebound is low. After the holiday, it is expected to rise moderately but with a slower slope than in January [5] - Stock index options have a warm market sentiment. The trading volume was relatively stable after the market's rise. Considering the approaching holiday and exercise date, it is recommended to use call options for defense [5] - Treasury bond futures saw an increasing bullish sentiment. Supply decreased, the central bank continued net injections, and the market's expectation of loose money increased. The bond market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium - term, but short - term caution is needed [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the equity market opened high and fluctuated at a high level, with the All - A index rising nearly 2%. Communication, media, and electronics were strong. The A - share rebound was related to the global risk - asset sentiment repair on Friday. Before the holiday, the low participation rate and risk - averse capital preference limit a rapid rebound. The weakening dollar index is a favorable factor. After the holiday, during the important meeting window period, the market is expected to rise moderately [5] - The operation suggestion is to hold IM long positions [5] Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety declined significantly. After the market's rise, the trading volume was relatively stable. The strengthening of the option sentiment indicator (position PCR) and the decline in implied volatility suggest a warm market sentiment. It is recommended to use call options for defense to protect the overall portfolio's systematic risk [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Although the equity market was strong, the stock - bond seesaw effect did not occur. The bullish sentiment in the bond market increased due to the decline in supply and the central bank's net injection. The market's expectation of loose money also rose. In the first quarter, the bond - market allocation power may increase, supporting the bullish sentiment. In the medium - term, the bond market may be moderately strong, but short - term factors may cause disruptions [6] - Operation suggestions include a volatile trend strategy, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, a basis - volatile basis strategy, appropriately paying attention to the convergence of the 30Y - 10Y spread, and being aware of the downward momentum of the inter - period spread and the change in the inter - period transfer window due to the Spring Festival [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market continues to be weak. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, but there are disturbances in the iron ore shipping end, and the futures market shows signs of stabilization. As the winter storage nears its end, the support for coking coal and coke replenishment gradually weakens, and the futures market performs weakly. There are disturbances in the glass supply end, but the oversupply of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures price. Overall, as the winter storage of furnace materials nears its end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster. The futures market has short - term downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Core Logic**: The inventory pressure continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, and the futures market is under pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the Spring Festival, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure is released. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally [2] - **Outlook**: The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke** - **Core Logic**: The growth space of coke supply is limited in the future, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [2][11] - **Outlook**: The coke supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [2][11] - **Coking Coal** - **Core Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may remain healthy. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] - **Outlook**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may remain healthy. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon** - **Core Logic**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the pressure on upstream inventory reduction is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. The cost of manganese silicon has little adjustment recently, the demand support for the price weakens, and the market inventory level may further increase [15] - **Outlook**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract will oscillate around the cost. Pay attention to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the change of manufacturers' production control intensity [15][16] - **Silicon Iron** - **Core Logic**: The downstream procurement rhythm slows down, the market trading atmosphere fades, the cost adjustment range of silicon iron is limited, the support of steel - making demand for the price weakens, the market trading activity is low during the holiday, and the daily output of silicon iron remains at a low level [17] - **Outlook**: The silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. However, the market trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the silicon iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost. Pay attention to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the resumption of production trends in the main production areas [17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Core Logic**: The supply is expected to decline in the long - term, the downstream demand is weak, the mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral. The overall replenishment ability is limited, and the large mid - stream inventory suppresses the glass valuation in the futures market [13] - **Outlook**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - stream and downstream inventories are moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [13][15] - **Soda Ash** - **Core Logic**: The supply increases month - on - month, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, the demand for heavy soda ash weakens due to the expected decline in glass daily melting, the downstream procurement of light soda ash has little change, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious change, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand has a downward trend, and the dynamic oversupply expectation further intensifies. The upstream has no obvious production reduction recently, and the spot price may return to the price - cut channel [13] - **Outlook**: The cold repair of glass increases, the short - term supply stops production and increases, but the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [15] 3.5 Steel - **Core Logic**: The spot market trading is weak, the steel mill profitability is stable, the resumption of production of steel mills is slow, the iron water output increases slightly month - on - month, the electric furnace begins to stop production one after another, the output of five major steel products decreases slightly, the demand in the off - season weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end is emerging, with the social inventory and rebar inventory accumulating significantly [7] - **Outlook**: The inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end in the off - season is emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, the futures market has short - term downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [7] 3.6 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: The global shipping volume decreases slightly month - on - month due to the impact of tropical cyclones in Australia. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side is expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern. The iron water output increases marginally, the rigid demand is still stable, the steel mill replenishment accelerates before the Spring Festival, and the support for the price may gradually weaken as the replenishment progresses. The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is still increasing. The market sentiment has weakened recently, and the futures market is under pressure [7] - **Outlook**: The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, the current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, the futures market is under pressure, but there are still macro expectations after the Spring Festival. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure is released. It is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [7][8] 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Core Logic**: The supply of scrap steel is expected to decline seasonally, the demand decreases significantly, and the inventory of steel enterprises increases [9] - **Outlook**: The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] 3.8 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index is 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial product index is 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.35, up 0.58% [104] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on February 9, 2026, is 1935.90, with a daily decline of 0.78%, a decline of 1.72% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.10% in the past month, and a decline of 2.03% since the beginning of the year [105]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 板块逻辑： 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-10 全国动⼒煤普遍去库，化⼯延续震荡整 理 原油期货价格延续震荡整理态势，市场焦点依旧在于美伊和谈。彭博 报道，2月6日美伊双方在阿曼进行了初次谈判，美国总统表示会谈进行得 非常好，双方会谈将于本周继续进行。在地缘局势平息前，原油将延续震 荡整理。隆众数据显示，当前煤炭市场价格则受到低库存的支撑，周度看 全国各区域均环比去库，发运倒挂，煤炭价格春节前后维持坚挺的概率较 大。彭博报道，美国天然气期货周一延续跌势，天然气钻机数持续回升为 期价带来压力。 三大一次能源的震荡格局为化工带来一些支撑，化工产业链自身当前 矛盾并不很大。周一液体化工库存公布，隆众数据显示，2月9日当周苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比下滑11.18%，库存绝对值位于五年同期最低；纯苯港 口库存周度环比略增0.34%，纯苯当前依旧是五年同期最高的库存水平；C CF公布数据显示，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增加4.24%。乙二醇和纯苯的 累库属于季节性，苯乙烯的反季节性去库更凸显当前产业格局的健康，高 利润带来的远期开工的回升是隐忧。 原油：地缘溢价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dovish remarks of the San Francisco Fed President eased market expectations of the Fed's hawkish policy, leading to a weaker dollar and a rise in the precious metals sector. As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 10.58%, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7.59% [2]. - The price of platinum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term due to a weaker dollar and positive macro - expectations. The report suggests seizing opportunities to go long on platinum and short on palladium [2]. - The price of palladium is also expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term, supported by short - term spot shortages and positive macro - environment [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price Performance**: As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 545.05 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 10.58% [2]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the market is in a wide - range volatile consolidation phase due to factors such as sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals, geopolitical issues, and Fed rate - cut expectations. In the long term, the long - term weakening trend of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of price elasticity. The platinum - to - palladium ratio has fallen to a relatively low level this week, and it is recommended to consider long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities [2]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive [2]. Palladium - **Price Performance**: As of February 9, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 438.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7.59% [2]. - **Main Logic**: There is uncertainty on the supply side, with the US import investigation of Russian unforged palladium pending and Europe considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. The palladium lease rate has been rising, and the spot shortage supports the price. On the demand side, there is still structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and Fed rate - cut expectations provide clear support for the price [3]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. Supported by short - term spot shortages and a positive macro - environment [3]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index was 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial products index was 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index was 1404.35, up 0.58% [49]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on February 9, 2026, was 2681.11, with a daily increase of 1.12%, a 5 - day increase of 0.10%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.82%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.18% [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with precious metals leading the gains and chemicals leading the losses. Platinum rose 10.58%, while styrene fell 2.87% [1]. - The US economy shows a weak - stable total and a differentiated structure. The US manufacturing PMI in January was favorable, but the non - manufacturing sector weakened and employment data was below expectations [1]. - In China, the impact of incremental policies in Q4 2025 on the fundamentals has not been significant, but policy expectations are increasing. The manufacturing PMI in January declined, but the expectation of policy support in Q1 is strengthening [1]. - Domestic equity markets are supported by policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - term opportunities. Gold in precious metals is a long - term standard allocation, while silver is on hold. Non - ferrous metals are still promising, and investors can buy on dips. Black commodities are volatile, and crude oil may rise but with high uncertainty [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Precious metals led the gains (platinum +10.58%), basic metals all rose (Shanghai tin +6.61%), non - metallic building materials all rose (glass +0.56%), chemicals led the losses (styrene - 2.87%), most agricultural products fell (log - 1.90%), black series all fell (ferrosilicon - 1.44%), energy products all fell (low - sulfur fuel oil - 1.22%), most new energy materials fell (industrial silicon - 0.82%), shipping futures all fell (container shipping index (European line) - 0.39%), and most oilseeds fell (soybean meal - 0.33%) [1]. - **Financial Market**: On February 9, 2026, stock index futures generally rose, with CSI 1000 futures up 1.98%. Treasury bond futures also had small increases, and the US dollar index fell 0.36% [9]. - **Industry Index**: Most industries in the CITIC industry index rose on February 9, 2026. The communication industry led the gains with a daily increase of 5.07%, followed by the media industry with a 3.47% increase [10][11]. - **Overseas Commodities**: As of February 6, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 0.33%, ICE Brent oil rose 0.81%, COMEX gold rose 2.03%, and LME copper rose 1.22% [12][13]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On February 9, 2026, gold rose 3.3%, silver rose 11.65%, and tin rose 7.67%. Some commodities such as styrene fell 2.24% [14][15]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Equity Market**: Policy expectations and additional liquidity provide upward support [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Neutral overall, with better short - term opportunities but limited odds [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is a long - term standard allocation, and silver is on hold [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Promising, and investors can buy on dips after the market squeezes out the crowded trading bubble [2]. - **Black Commodities**: Volatile [2]. - **Crude Oil**: May rise due to geopolitical support, but with high uncertainty, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. 3.3 Short - term Market Judgments - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, stock index options are oscillating, and treasury bond futures are oscillating [6]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are both oscillating [6]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most products such as steel, iron ore, and coke are oscillating [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals are oscillating, with some showing a slightly stronger trend [6]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most products are oscillating [7]. - **Agriculture**: Most products are oscillating, with some showing a slightly weaker trend [7].

Report Summary Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking [2] Report Date - February 9, 2026 [3] Researcher Information - Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] - Gan Mang, Qualification No. F03124127, Investment Consultation No. Z0023461 [3] Key Data Points General Bond - As of February 8, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in February was 75.5 billion yuan [4] - This week's new general bond issuance was 75.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 36.3 billion yuan, and next week's planned issuance is 61.6 billion yuan [4] Special Bond - As of February 8, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in February was 134.3 billion yuan [4] Local Government Bond Net Financing - This week's local government bond net financing scale was 578.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 268.1 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is 320.5 billion yuan [5] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week's treasury bond net financing scale was 212 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 325.3 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is - 249.9 billion yuan [8] Government Bond Net Financing - This week's government bond net financing was 790.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 593.4 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is 70.6 billion yuan [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The EIA's January 2026 oil supply report confirms the production and demand situation of the US in November 2025. In November 2025, the US crude oil production was 13.782 million barrels per day, a decrease of 82,000 barrels per day from the previous month. Both the production forecast and the month - on - month trend were downwardly adjusted compared with the previous EIA weekly data's continuous production increase forecast. In terms of demand, although the refinery's net intake was seasonally high in November, the apparent demand for gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US all declined, and the total demand for petroleum products fell to a low level in the same period [2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Production - In November 2025, the US crude oil production was 13.782 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 82,000 barrels per day. The production forecast and the month - on - month trend were downwardly adjusted compared with the previous EIA weekly data's continuous production increase forecast [2] Demand - In November 2025, although the refinery's net intake was seasonally high, the apparent demand for gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US all declined, and the total demand for petroleum products fell to a low level in the same period [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - As of the week of February 8, the global full - caliber (including in - transit) crude oil inventory declined, showing an overall volatile trend since the beginning of the year. The on - land crude oil inventory increased, mainly driven by inventory growth in China and the Middle East, while inventories in India, Europe, and Russia decreased. European inventory has declined significantly in the past two weeks, and Middle East inventory has continued its upward trend since the beginning of the year [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog - **Global Crude Oil Inventory**: The global full - caliber (including in - transit) inventory declined in the week of February 8, and the on - land inventory increased, with an overall volatile trend since the beginning of the year [2] - **Regional Crude Oil Inventory**: - **China and Middle East**: Inventory increased, driving the rise of global on - land crude oil inventory [2] - **India, Europe, and Russia**: Inventory declined, with a significant decline in European inventory in the past two weeks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - holiday caution is maintained for precious metals during the stage of adjustment, with a focus on risk prevention. In the long - term, the long - term central support for precious metals remains strong, and attention should be paid to three aspects of upward drivers [6] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - This week, precious metals have been in an adjustment trend. On February 6, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 18,799 yuan/kg, a decline of 14.92%, and the main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1,090.12 yuan/g, a decline of 2.02%. Intraday, spot London gold reached a minimum of $4,654 per ounce, and spot London silver reached a minimum of $64 per ounce [4] Influencing Factors - **External Asset Impact**: The continuous decline of external assets such as US stocks has an impact on precious metals in terms of sentiment and liquidity. Since January 29, the decline of US stocks and the "Wash Trade" have affected precious metals, and this week's decline of US stocks and digital currencies has also had a negative feedback on precious metals. In the past six months, the price of precious metals has been more closely linked to the trend of US stocks [4] - **Geopolitical Factor**: The phone call between the Chinese and US presidents released positive signals, and the sensitivity of precious metals to geopolitical conflicts may decline marginally. The previous sharp rise of precious metals has fully reflected the geopolitical conflicts since January. If the conflicts do not escalate further, the sensitivity may decrease [5] Market Outlook - In the short - term, precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. With the approaching Spring Festival, domestic capital trading may become lighter, and the upward driving force of prices is low. It is expected that precious metals will maintain an adjustment trend this month, with gold continuing a mild consolidation and silver still at risk of sharp fluctuations [6] - In the long - term, the long - term central support for precious metals remains strong. The subsequent upward driving forces mainly focus on three aspects: the restart of interest rate cuts after Wash takes office as the Fed Chairman in May, the low silver inventory and the potential squeeze risk in the later period of the first quarter overseas, and the possible unexpected disturbances in geopolitics and trade [6]