1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry. However, the outlook suggests that the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate, and some chemical products with high inventories may face pressure and are suitable for short - allocation [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US second - quarter GDP growth rate exceeded expectations, and the Chinese economy showed vitality and resilience. The energy and chemical sector continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors and economic data influenced the prices of energy and chemical products. The high - level meeting in China indicated good economic indicators, which may reduce the possibility of introducing economic stimulus policies, dragging down the demand side of commodities and energy chemicals to some extent [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical support continued, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: The US imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil, and concerns about Trump's possible increased sanctions on Russia continued. Geopolitical factors drove oil prices. High refinery operations in China and the US and strong margins provided support, but OPEC + was in a period of rapid production increase, and supply pressure was still present. - **Outlook**: The strong reality dominated by high refinery operations at home and abroad and the weak expectation dominated by supply pressure balanced each other, and oil prices fluctuated. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [9]. 3.2 LPG - **Viewpoint**: The support from the cost side weakened, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remained loose, and the PG futures market might fluctuate weakly [2]. 3.3 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices rose, it was a good time for short - sellers of asphalt to enter the market. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price rebounds drove asphalt price increases. The spot market of asphalt was stronger in the north than in the south, and the futures market might shift from Shandong - based pricing to East and South China - based pricing. The demand side was weak, and the valuation of asphalt was relatively high. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt was over - valued, and the monthly spread of asphalt might decline as the number of warehouse receipts increased [11]. 3.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil rebounded following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation was affected. The supply of heavy oil increased, and the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil were weakening. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil was expected to increase and demand to decrease. Geopolitical upgrades would only cause short - term price fluctuations, and high - sulfur fuel oil would fluctuate weakly [12]. 3.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures rebounded following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It followed the trend of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread increased, low - sulfur fuel oil faced negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel oil substitution. The supply was expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it would maintain a low - valuation operation. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited demand for high - sulfur fuel oil substitution, but with a low current valuation, it would fluctuate following crude oil [13]. 3.6 PX - **Viewpoint**: It returned to the fundamental pricing logic, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations. - **Main Logic**: The impact of commodity sentiment subsided, and the market returned to fundamental pricing. Many PX plants were scheduled to restart in August, and new PTA plants were put into operation, so the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and there was limited upward or downward space. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of US secondary sanctions on Russia on oil prices [14]. 3.7 PTA - **Viewpoint**: New plants were put into operation, and the repair of processing fees was blocked. - **Main Logic**: The supply and demand of PTA both increased, but the marginal supply - demand relationship was still weak, and the repair of processing fees was blocked. The price would follow the cost of upstream products, and the processing fees might improve after large - scale plant maintenance in early August. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of large - scale plant maintenance at the beginning of August [15]. 3.8 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil rebounded, the price of pure benzene increased slightly. - **Main Logic**: The price of pure benzene increased slightly following the rebound of crude oil. The fundamental situation of pure benzene improved in the third quarter, but the rebound was limited by inventory pressure. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate [16]. 3.9 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The commodity sentiment cooled down, while crude oil prices broke through. Styrene fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Main Logic**: The fundamental situation of pure benzene improved, but it did not strongly support styrene. Styrene's own supply - demand was expected to weaken, and port inventories were accumulating. - **Outlook**: Although styrene inventories at ports were increasing recently, the inventories of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain were not high. If the macro - sentiment continued to improve, there might be inventory replenishment in the industry chain, which could support the market. Attention should be paid to changes in commodity sentiment [19]. 3.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: The fundamental driving force was limited, and typhoons affected the arrival rhythm of goods. - **Main Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol changed little. Although the demand increased slightly due to the rising polyester load, the supply was expected to increase in August, and the market was in a wide - balance state. Typhoons affected port inventories, but there was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium term. - **Outlook**: There was an expectation of an inventory inflection point [20]. 3.11 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It followed the trend passively. - **Main Logic**: Under the fluctuating raw material prices, the supply - demand of short - fiber changed little, and it mainly followed the upstream products. The downstream sales were still not good. - **Outlook**: The processing fees of short - fiber would remain stable, and the absolute price would follow the raw materials [22]. 3.12 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: It returned to the cost - pricing model. - **Main Logic**: With the fluctuating upstream polyester raw materials, the price of bottle - chip was mainly determined by cost, and its own supply - demand changed little, and the processing fees were weak. - **Outlook**: The processing fees of bottle - chip had support at the bottom, and the absolute price would follow the raw materials [23]. 3.13 PP - **Viewpoint**: There was still some macro - support, and PP fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: Short - term oil price increases and positive signals from the macro - level provided support, but the supply side was expected to increase, and the demand side was weak. - **Outlook**: PP would fluctuate in the short term [31]. 3.14 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: It mainly followed the fluctuations, and PL might fluctuate in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The spot supply of propylene was abundant, and the enterprise inventory was controllable. The market followed the fluctuations of PP and methanol. Due to the new product listing and far - month contracts, the influence of spot was limited, and the market might fluctuate at a relatively high level. - **Outlook**: PL would fluctuate in the short term [32]. 3.15 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: As oil prices strengthened, plastic fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: Oil price increases, macro - uncertainties, and the pressure on the supply side and weak demand side of plastic itself affected the market. - **Outlook**: The short - term oil price increase and macro - uncertainties led to short - term fluctuations in the plastic 09 contract [30]. 3.16 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The policy expectation cooled down, and PVC mainly fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: There were no unexpected policies in the high - level meeting, and the market sentiment cooled down. The fundamental situation of PVC was under pressure, with increasing production, weak downstream demand, and an expected increase in costs. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price declined [35]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Supported by low inventories in Shandong, caustic soda fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment cooled down. The demand for caustic soda from the alumina industry increased marginally, but the overall supply was high. There was a balance between low inventories in Shandong and cost support. - **Outlook**: The policy expectation cooled down, and there was pressure from near - month warehouse receipts. The downward space of caustic soda was limited [35]. 3.18 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Port inventories were accumulating, and methanol fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: The futures price of methanol fluctuated. Port inventories increased, and the actual impact of policies was limited. The production profit was relatively high, and there was still a negative feedback expectation in the downstream olefin industry. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate in the short term [26]. 3.19 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The supply was strong and the demand was weak. The sentiment was temporarily boosted, and exports supported the market. Urea fluctuated in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The spot price increased, but the fundamental situation of supply - demand remained unchanged, with strong supply and weak demand. The market was expected to fluctuate due to the influence of coal policies. - **Outlook**: In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support was limited. The market sentiment temporarily boosted the price, and the futures price of urea would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the development after the market returned to fundamentals [26]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring 4.1 Inter - Period Spread - The report provided the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data reflected the price differences between different delivery months of each variety [37]. 4.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The report presented the basis and the number of warehouse receipts for each variety, such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, PX, etc., which were important indicators for analyzing the relationship between the spot and futures markets [38]. 4.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The report showed the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and 3MA, TA and EG, etc., which helped to understand the relative price relationships between different energy and chemical products [39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⿊⾊："反内卷"预期暂降温，⿊⾊价格回落 市场关注许久的重要会议尘埃落定，从定调上看虽然积极但相较于市 场趋于狂热的心态而言还是不及预期，黑色价格应声而落。不过我们 认为，在宏观大方向不变的基础上，不排除后续会议或政策再度形成 利好的可能。产业方面，尽管终端板块需求未看到明显转势，但目前 驱动核心点仍在于中间环节补库。中游心态较好，出货意愿不强， 现货价格较为坚挺。近期黑色波动加剧，宏观或仍有扰动，以低多思 路看待，后续进入旺季随着交易重心回到基本面有高位回落风险。 1、铁元素方面，从基本面来看，海外矿山发运环比回升，45港口到 港量下降，符合预期；需求端钢企盈利率增加明显，钢企铁水产量微 降，同比保持高位，支撑矿石需求。由于到港偏低、需求高位，铁矿 石45港小幅去库。铁矿基本面利空驱动有限，价格震荡运行。若市场 情绪再度升温，价格或震荡偏强。 2、碳元素方面，产地生产扰动仍存，供应端依然受限，整体供应缓 慢恢复。进口端，近几日蒙煤日均通关在千车以上，维持高位。焦炭 四轮提涨全面落地，焦企利润有所缓解，但仍有部分企业处于亏损状 态，产地焦企已开启第五轮提涨，同时 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal divisions persisting. Powell's remarks were seen as hawkish, reducing the probability of a September rate cut, leading to declines in US stocks and gold, and significant rebounds in the US dollar and Treasury yields. The US economic growth slowdown in the first half was removed from the statement, and no signal of a September rate cut was given. The US Q2 GDP data rebounded more than expected, but the growth center has shifted down overall. Tariffs are becoming a slow - moving variable, and the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in late August is important. The medium - and long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Refined copper being excluded from tariffs and the cooling of the anti - involution sentiment in China dragged down silver, which is expected to follow gold in a weak oscillation in the short term [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Focus on Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, and Powell said it was too early to determine a September rate cut [2] - The initial annualized Q2 real GDP in the US increased by 3% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding the expected 2.4%. The initial quarter - on - quarter increase in real personal consumption expenditure was 1.4%, slightly lower than the expected 1.5%. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3% [2] - The number of ADP employed people in the US in July increased by 104,000, exceeding the estimate of 75,000 [2] - The US Treasury plans to set the quarterly refinancing bond issuance at $125 billion, in line with expectations, and expects bond issuance to remain stable for at least the next few quarters [2] - Trump said India will pay a 25% tariff and a fine related to purchasing Russian military equipment and energy starting from August 1 [2] Price Logic - The Fed's inaction in the interest - rate meeting, combined with the hawkish remarks, led to market reactions. The Q2 GDP data showed a significant impact from tariffs, and the growth center has shifted down. The main contract of COMEX gold changed to 2512, causing price - spread fluctuations. The support level of spot gold at 3250 should be watched. The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs and the cooling of anti - involution sentiment in China dragged down silver [3] Outlook - The weekly range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between 3250 and 3450, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between 36 and 40 [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-31 7月政治局会议落地，投资者重新关注消费 有⾊观点：7⽉政治局会议落地，投资者重新关注消费 交易逻辑：7月政治局会议基本符合预期，潜在增量刺激政策还需等 待，市场关注点逐步重新转向消费走弱；美欧达成15%关税，中美关 税进一步延期，整体来看，美国关税政策还未完全明朗，另外国内增 量刺激政策预期延后。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐步季节性趋松， 国内库存逐步季节性回升。中短期来看，关税不确定性及需求走弱预 期压制价格，但低库存及供应扰动对价格有支撑，主要关注结构性机 会，谨慎关注铝锡低吸短多机会，逢高沽空锌锭；同时，密切留意美 铜进口关税落地情况，若真在7月底执行50%进口关税，则铜价可能会 面临短时抛压，中长期来看，基本金属需求前景仍存在不确定性， 可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期过剩品种的逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：政治局会议落地，铜价震荡运⾏。 氧化铝观点：仓单⼩幅增⻓，氧化铝延续宽幅震荡。 铝观点：累库趋势延续，铝价窄幅震荡。 铝合⾦观点：淡季氛围浓厚，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点："反内卷"情绪再起VS库存累积，锌价震荡运 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [4] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [4] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [4] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [5] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [7] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with a slight downward trend [10] - **Cotton**: Oscillating, with a reverse spread in the monthly price difference [11] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Pulp**: Oscillating with an upward trend [13] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward trend [15] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It points out that the prices of these products are affected by various factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and policies. In the short term, the prices of most products will continue to oscillate, and the long - term trends vary depending on the specific product's supply - demand situation and market expectations. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Product 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, rapeseed oil was strong. Pay attention to the performance at the technical resistance level. - **Logic**: Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas has increased the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, and the US dollar has strengthened. The price of crude oil has risen due to concerns about the interruption of Russian oil supply. The production of palm oil is in the increasing season, and the export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is high, and the import situation of domestic rapeseed remains uncertain. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the oil market may oscillate with a slight upward trend as market sentiment stabilizes [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The market sentiment is bullish, and rapeseed meal leads the protein sector. - **Logic**: Sino - US negotiations have not made substantial progress. The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and the future weather is favorable for a bumper harvest. The short - term supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, but the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be short. The consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - month contracts will mainly fluctuate within a range, while the far - month contracts will strengthen [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Oscillating within a range, waiting for new guidance. - **Logic**: The supply of old - crop corn is expected to tighten in July - August, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. The production of new - crop corn is normal, and the supply from abroad is abundant. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price may rebound due to the reduction of old - crop inventory. After the new - crop corn is listed, the price is expected to decline [4]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **View**: At the end of the month, the price movement slows down, and the hog price oscillates within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the short term, large - scale farms are actively selling hogs, but small - scale farmers still have the intention to fatten. In the medium term, the supply of hogs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, policies are expected to drive capacity reduction. The terminal consumption demand is limited, and the inventory pressure is high. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The near - month market is still affected by over - capacity, while the long - term market is expected to strengthen due to capacity reduction policies [5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: After the macro - event is settled, short - term observation is still needed. - **Logic**: The market sentiment was affected by the Politburo meeting. The supply of raw materials is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will follow the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [7]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The fundamental variables are limited, and the market oscillates with a slight downward trend. - **Logic**: The BR market oscillated weakly yesterday due to a slight cooling of market sentiment and a decline in raw material prices. The fundamentals of raw material butadiene have not changed significantly, and the supply is expected to remain tight in the short term. - **Outlook**: It will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in equipment operation [10]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The monthly price difference is decreasing. Pay attention to the change in the outflow speed of warehouse receipts. - **Logic**: The supply of cotton is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 season. The current demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The 09 contract's upward momentum has weakened, and the 1 - month contract may rise in the short term but will be under pressure in the medium term. - **Outlook**: Oscillating, with a reverse spread in the monthly price difference [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price has declined. Pay attention to the supply pressure. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazil's sugar production ratio is expected to remain high, and India's sugar production is expected to increase. The domestic sales progress is fast, but the import volume has increased. - **Outlook**: Oscillating with a long - term downward trend. In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The Politburo meeting provided insufficient bullish factors, and the pulp price may continue to decline in the short term. - **Logic**: The futures price of pulp fell yesterday due to a weakening of the commodity trading atmosphere. The current supply of pulp is excessive, and the demand is expected to improve marginally in the second half of the year. The industry has a ceiling expectation for price increases. - **Outlook**: In the near term, the fluctuation will mainly follow the macro - environment, and the pulp futures price is expected to oscillate upwards [13]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the market has followed the decline. - **Logic**: After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment cooled down, and the log market oscillated weakly. The supply and demand of the log market are both weak. The supply from New Zealand has slowed down, and the demand lacks obvious growth points. - **Outlook**: Oscillating with a slight downward trend in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the quantity of effective delivery products of the 09 contract and fluctuations caused by the change of peak and off - peak seasons [15]. 3.2 Operation Suggestions - **Pulp**: In the short term, remain on the sidelines. For arbitrage, conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread and a spot - futures positive spread [13]. - **Protein Meal**: Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on increased volatility [4]. - **Hogs**: Pay attention to the reverse spread strategy [5]. - **Logs**: For speculators, remain on the sidelines. For industrial players, participate in hedging according to their own costs [16].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodities futures mostly closed higher, with the crude oil sector generally rising [1]. - Overseas commodity demand is experiencing a short - term weak recovery, housing prices are weakly stable, and job vacancies are lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and earnings reports. The US tariff policies may be implemented, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - The tone of the domestic policy meeting is in line with expectations, focusing on improving the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. Policies will be more flexible and forward - looking. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries, and domestic demand is stable with resilient exports [7]. - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A weak US dollar pattern persists in the long - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US May FHFA housing price index monthly rate was - 0.2%. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level. US June JOLTs job vacancies were 7.437 million, lower than expected. US tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Politburo meeting's policy tone is in line with expectations, emphasizing using existing policies effectively. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries. Domestic demand is stable, and exports are resilient [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, pay attention to multiple risks. Maintain strategic allocations to resources like gold and copper [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the strengthening of the technology - growth sector. Index options may experience volatile movements. Treasury bond futures will be affected by the Politburo meeting and China - US economic and trade talks [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase, affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment of the shipping industry has declined. The focus is on the sustainability of the increase in the June loading rate of container shipping to Europe [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The trend of black building materials has reversed. Most varieties are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as production, cost, and policy [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to receive support from the upcoming stable - growth plan. Most non - ferrous metal prices are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil supply is increasing. Most chemical products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. Some products like asphalt and high/low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline [10]. - **Agriculture**: Cotton prices have declined, and the month - spread has decreased. Most agricultural products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [10].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China and the US agreed to extend the suspension of reciprocal tariffs Futures Prices: On July 30, equity index futures fell while CGB futures rose; most commodities gained, with poly-silicon, coke and coal leading the gains. Commentary: Poly-Silicon, Silicon Metal, Lithium Carbonate 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report doesn't explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual品种outlooks, most are rated as "震荡" (sideways), with some "震荡偏弱" (weakly sideways) and no "偏强" (strongly bullish) or "偏弱" (strongly bearish) ratings [266] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market has warmed up again, with energy and chemical products generally showing a strong sideways trend, supported by the strength of raw materials such as crude oil and coking coal. The futures market has rebounded, but the spot market is relatively weak, especially for polyolefins. The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical factors on the oil market and the supply - demand dynamics of various chemical products [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Influencing Factors - The upcoming Politburo meeting has led to a warm - up in the domestic commodity market. The energy and chemical sector is influenced by both crude oil and coking coal, with futures rebounding but spot prices being weak, especially for polyolefins. The situation in Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's remarks on Russia continue to support oil prices, while OPEC+ is in a period of rapid production increase, and there is a balance between strong demand from refineries and supply pressure [1][2][5] 3.2 Outlook for Each Commodity - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues, and the market should watch out for Russian oil risks. The high refinery operations in China and the US and geopolitical factors support prices, while supply pressure from OPEC+ exists. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5] - **Asphalt**: With the rise in crude oil prices, it is a good time for short - sellers to enter the market. The spot market shows a pattern of strong in the north and weak in the south, and the futures market may shift the pricing from Shandong to East and South China. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [6] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the rebound of crude oil, but overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. Geopolitical upgrades may only cause short - term price fluctuations, and it is expected to be weakly sideways [7] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price follows the rebound of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Although the current valuation is low, it is expected to follow the movement of crude oil [8] - **PX**: After the cooling of market sentiment, it returns to cost and fundamental pricing logic. The supply is stable, and the demand from downstream PTA is weakening, with production profits narrowing [9] - **PTA**: Major suppliers have reduced production, leading to a decrease in both supply and demand, and the processing fee has been repaired. The overall supply - demand situation in August is expected to improve, but the absolute price still mainly follows raw material fluctuations [9] - **Pure Benzene**: With the rebound of crude oil, its price has slightly increased. The third - quarter fundamentals have improved, but the rebound is restricted by inventory pressure [10][11] - **Styrene**: As market sentiment cools, its price has declined. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and port inventories are accumulating. If the macro - sentiment continues to improve, there may be inventory replenishment in the industry chain [12] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Market sentiment has cooled, and typhoon weather has led to a reduction in port inventories. The supply - demand situation in August - September is expected to turn to a wide - balance state, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation after the typhoon [13] - **Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the upstream polymerization cost has declined. The production and sales rate has increased, and some factories have carried out maintenance. The processing fee is expected to remain stable, and the absolute price will follow raw material fluctuations [14] - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The support from upstream polyester raw materials has weakened, and the "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided. The market price is expected to follow raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee has support at the bottom [15][16] - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in the inland area is not significant, and it is expected to fluctuate. The domestic main production areas are in a state of weak supply and demand, and the port inventory has decreased. The profit of methanol production is still relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by the negative feedback from olefins [17] - **Urea**: The supply is strong while the demand is weak. The market sentiment has received short - term support, and exports support the market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to its return to fundamentals [18] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The support from maintenance is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The commodity sentiment has fluctuated, and the supply side still has pressure, while the demand side is in the off - season [21] - **PP**: The commodity sentiment is volatile in the short - term, and it is expected to fluctuate. The macro - support has weakened, and the supply side is expected to increase, while the demand side is weak [22] - **Propylene (PL)**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and it may fluctuate in the short - term. The spot supply of propylene is abundant, and the downstream follows the demand. The short - term macro - end may still fluctuate after the decline [23] - **PVC**: The policy expectation is positive, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The production is expected to increase, and the cost may rise [24] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by the low inventory in Shandong, it is expected to run sideways. The policy expectation is positive, and the demand from alumina is increasing, while the export price has rebounded slightly [24] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: The report provides cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads for various commodities, showing the price relationships and changes among different contracts and commodities [25][26][27] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists different commodities such as methanol, urea, etc., specific data summaries are not provided in the given text, only the commodity names are mentioned [28][40][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - IMF's upward revision of the global economic growth forecast provides temporary support for the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and the expectation of weakening demand still suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, such as short - term long positions in aluminum and tin at low prices and short positions in zinc ingots at high prices. For the long - term, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered for some varieties with supply surpluses or expected surpluses [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different market trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate due to the approaching expiration date of reciprocal tariffs; alumina will continue to fluctuate widely; aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly with a continuous inventory accumulation trend; aluminum alloy will fluctuate in a weak off - season atmosphere; zinc prices will fluctuate weakly; lead prices will fluctuate with stable cost support; nickel prices will fluctuate widely; stainless steel will fluctuate; and tin prices will fluctuate with inventory accumulation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: As the expiration date of reciprocal tariffs approaches, copper prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The Chilean Finance Minister hopes that the 50% tariff on copper can be exempted. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the new tariff may be implemented at the end of July or August 1st. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28th, copper inventory increased. On July 29th, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had an average premium of 110 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, investors are becoming more cautious as the tariff expiration date approaches, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. The supply of raw materials is still tight, increasing the risk of smelter production cuts. The copper rod operating rate has declined, and inventory has increased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and inventory is still low, but demand is weakening marginally. The implementation of US copper tariffs is not conducive to Shanghai copper prices, so copper is expected to show a fluctuating pattern [9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: With a large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts, alumina will continue to fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of alumina increased in various regions. The supply of Guinea's bauxite may tighten during the rainy season, but the overall market surplus pattern will suppress prices. On July 29th, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 4823 tons to 4208 tons [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the alumina market is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and low warehouse receipts. Fundamentally, smelter production capacity is increasing, and the market is in a surplus state with rising inventory. However, the large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts and the low level of warehouse receipt inventory may support prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues [10][11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: With the continuous inventory accumulation trend, aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton. As of July 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas in China changed. On July 29th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 524 tons. Relevant policies for the stable growth of key industries are expected to be introduced. Hydro's Q2 production data shows a slight increase in aluminum production. The US has reached trade agreements with the EU, the Philippines, and other countries [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the approaching tariff deadline, a slight rebound in the US dollar, and the cooling of anti - involution policy expectations. The supply - side production capacity and operating rate are at a high level, while the demand - side off - season atmosphere is emerging, and the operating rate of primary processing is declining. Inventory is accumulating, and the spot basis is flat. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the consumption situation and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices can be considered based on the premium and inventory inflection point [12]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: In a strong off - season atmosphere, the market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports decreased year - on - year. Thailand plans to implement carbon tax policies. An aluminum alloy project in Anhui started construction with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, ADC12 is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the previous imports have increased, and the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, resulting in a marginal decline in scrap aluminum prices. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is low, and inventory is accumulating. The demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises purchase on a just - in - time basis. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and the ADC12 - A00 spread will fluctuate at a low level, and the market will follow electrolytic aluminum. In the future, there is room for the spread to rise, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, zinc prices will fluctuate weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of zinc in different regions had different discounts to the main contract. As of July 29th, the inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production, with an annual zinc production capacity of 560,000 tons [15]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, but there are still expectations of domestic policy stimulus. The US dollar index has support, but its rebound is limited. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with strong production willingness. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will increase, and demand will weaken, leading to inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: With stable cost support, lead prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead was stable. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 25 yuan. As of July 28th, lead ingot inventory increased slightly. The supply of primary lead is still tight, while the production of recycled lead has recovered [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. The price of waste batteries is stable, and the operating rate of recycled lead smelters has increased. The production capacity of primary lead smelters has not fully recovered, and the weekly production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has increased [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Although the US reciprocal tariff suspension period has been postponed to August 1st, the announced tariff is high, causing macro - level fluctuations. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the battery factory operating rate has recovered. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost of recycled lead is supported at a high level, so lead prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With fluctuating market sentiment, nickel prices will fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to invest in the nickel downstream industry, and some companies have adjusted their production forecasts. Vale Indonesia plans to raise funds for nickel projects. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association proposes to revise the HPM formula, and the Indonesian government will implement a new RKAB system. The export volume of the Philippines to Indonesia is expected to increase [18][19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may be looser. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has declined slightly. The inventory of electrolytic nickel is accumulating, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate widely, and in the long term, they will face downward pressure [22]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of sentiment, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged. SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade ore to rise slightly in the first half of August. The spot price of 304 stainless steel in Foshan had a discount to the main contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [23][25]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of chrome iron is stable. Due to the traditional consumption off - season, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In June, stainless - steel production decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. Last week, social inventory and warehouse receipts decreased, alleviating the structural surplus pressure. - **Outlook**: The overall sentiment in the commodity sector has cooled. Attention should be paid to the possibility of increased production cuts by steel mills due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. In the short term, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost - side changes [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With inventory accumulation in both markets, tin prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 160 tons to 7529 tons. The trading volume decreased by 2289 lots to 52135 lots. The average spot price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 2700 yuan/ton to 266100 yuan/ton [24]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, tin ore production is expected to gradually increase, but the tight supply situation in China will not change in the short term. The supply - demand fundamentals provide strong support for tin prices. However, the terminal demand for tin has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, limiting the upward momentum of tin prices. - **Outlook**: With the tight supply of tin ore, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to fluctuate. In August, the volatility of tin prices may increase due to possible changes in macro, capital, and supply - demand factors [26]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this part.

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-30 棉价回落，月差下行 油脂：市场情绪企稳，油脂或震荡偏强 蛋⽩粕：优良率高于预期，美豆1000美分附近运行 ⽟⽶/淀粉：现货整体稳定，等待新的指引 ⽣猪：库存仍在，期现承压 橡㬵：等待宏观指引，胶价横盘震荡 合成橡㬵：盘面继续跟随变动 纸浆：反内卷交易仍可能重来，回落过程关注套利对冲 棉花：棉价回落，月差下行 ⽩糖：糖价震荡，进口压力压制上方空间 原⽊：基本面变化有限，短期受宏观预期主导 【异动品种】 棉花观点：棉价回落，⽉差下⾏ 逻辑：产量方面，25/26年度，国内外棉市预计供应依旧宽松，中国预计 增产，目前天气端无明显异动。需求方面，当前处于下游需求淡季，企业 开机率延续下滑，成品小幅累库，花纱利润不佳，关注需求端的负反馈传 导。库存方面，棉花去库速度虽然因为进入淡季而环比放缓，但较往年 同期来看依旧较快，导致棉花商业库存处于同期低位，滑准税配额增发 消息未落地，新花上市前供应偏紧的格局难改。总体来看，上周起， 主力合约减仓下行，随着做多资金获利了结平仓，尽管短期供需偏紧格 局未改，但主力合约继续炒作动力减弱，月 ...