Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, it gives outlooks such as "oscillating upward", "oscillating sideways", and "oscillating downward" [7][8][11]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It believes that the overall market shows a pattern of diversified trends, with some commodities expected to be strong, some weak, and others remaining in a range - bound state [7][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Categories Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has stabilized and may continue to oscillate upward [7]. - **Logic**: Macro - environment factors include expected Fed rate cuts in December and potential progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, leading to a weaker US dollar and a rebound in crude oil. From an industrial perspective, attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and the uncertainty of US biodiesel policies. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and domestic imported soybean arrivals are expected to be at a relatively high level. Palm oil production in Malaysia in November is expected to have a narrowing month - on - month increase, and exports have declined. Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low, and Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. Domestic rapeseed supply is tight, but future supply is expected to increase [7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate upward [7]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to South American weather and consider opportunistically laying out long positions in M2605 [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, La Nina is expected to occur, and South American agricultural regions will face climate differentiation, which may affect the growth of new - season corn and soybeans. The US soybean planting area is expected to expand in 2026, and US soybean exports are expected to decline. Domestically, China's soybean import profit has recovered, and the oil mill's soybean inventory is high, while the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to oscillate upward [8]. Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: There is a short - term supply - demand tightness, and prices will oscillate at a high level [9]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is tight, with factors such as upstream farmers' reluctance to sell, downstream rigid - demand restocking, differences in grain quality and regional price differentials, and traders' rush to buy and transport grains driving up prices. The tight transportation capacity also exacerbates the situation [10]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate at a high level [9]. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions [11]. - **Logic**: In the short term, supply is abundant, and demand is insufficient. In the medium term, there is pressure on large - pig inventory, and prices are in a downward cycle. In the long term, sow production capacity is expected to decline, and supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [11]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate downward. The near - term contracts are weak, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [11]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It will oscillate slightly upward [13]. - **Logic**: Affected by the flood situation in southern Thailand, the market is relatively strong. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market. Demand has not changed significantly recently, and the buying sentiment of downstream enterprises is still acceptable [14]. - **Outlook**: Prices will continue to oscillate widely with high elasticity, and it is difficult to have a trend - based market [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It will maintain range - bound oscillations [15]. - **Logic**: The recent stability of raw material butadiene trading and the strong performance of natural rubber support the market. The butadiene price rebounded after a decline, but there are still some selling pressures at high prices [15]. - **Outlook**: Before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene, it is advisable to short at high prices [15]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Cotton prices fluctuate narrowly, and the upward and downward space is limited [16]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase in production, and the supply is increasing. On the demand side, there is buying support when prices fall. On the inventory side, the commercial inventory is accumulating, and the pressure on prices may decrease after entering the destocking cycle [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate upward, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [17]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Sugar prices rebound, and there is short - term support at the bottom [17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long term, sugar prices are in a downward trend, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. However, in the short term, the 01 contract shows some support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, prices will oscillate downward; in the short term, there is support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the logic of near - term and far - term futures contracts is differentiated [19]. - **Logic**: The recent decline in futures prices is due to the withdrawal of long - position funds. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include potential shortages of delivery warehouse receipts, the upward trend of hardwood pulp prices, and relatively high non - bleached softwood pulp prices. Negative factors include a certain amount of warehouse receipts to be delivered, expected non - reduction of softwood pulp imports, and a decreasing proportion of softwood pulp use [19]. - **Outlook**: Pulp futures will oscillate widely, with the 01 contract having an expected upper pressure range of 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the 03 and 05 contracts having an upper pressure range of 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton [19]. Offset Printing Paper - **Viewpoint**: Offset printing paper will oscillate narrowly [20]. - **Logic**: The continuous decline in raw material prices affects the market sentiment negatively. Social demand is still weak. Supply is stable, downstream printing factory orders are limited, and the cost support from wood pulp is weakening [20]. - **Outlook**: There is still supply pressure. There is price support in the short term due to publishers' pick - up, but it may oscillate downward in the medium term [21]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The valuation is not high, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Logic**: There is no obvious buying intention. The fundamental situation is weak, and there is a lack of upward momentum. New Zealand's shipments to China are increasing, and demand is expected to remain weak. The market is in a state of "weak supply and demand", and the inventory will gradually decrease [22]. - **Outlook**: The supply will remain loose, demand has no expectation of increase, and the spot price is under pressure, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation at the bottom [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: On the evening of November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management may be shifting, and key figures might turn dovish in the next two weeks. Attention should be paid to the speeches of key Fed voting members and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic: The internal driving force remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has remained stable since May, indicating that the central bank may not be in a hurry to further relax policies in the short term. New and second - hand housing sales have rebounded month - on - month, land supply has increased, but land transactions remain low. The demand and production capacity of real - estate front - end and back - end physical work have declined month - on - month [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish Fed October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payroll data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. Global equity sectors and base metals like copper were under pressure. However, the New York Fed President's dovish speech on Friday boosted the December rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4. With the market sentiment lifted, short - term risk appetite may improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to allocate stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, and the Fed's expectation management may shift. Key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks. Focus on key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: The issuance of policy - based financial instruments, special bonds, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has been stable, suggesting no urgent need for short - term policy relaxation. Housing sales have rebounded, but land transactions are low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Fed's mixed signals initially pressured the December rate - cut expectation and boosted the US dollar index. The New York Fed President's speech later changed the situation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4 and look for low - price allocation opportunities in stocks, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Hotspots have limited persistence. Wait for the main line. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on incremental funds [9]. - Stock Index Options: The market is gradually dominated by long - term factors. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on option market liquidity [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term bond market disturbances exist. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policies [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel and Iron Ore: The off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the iron ore price remains resilient. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on special bond issuance, steel exports, iron production, and other factors [9]. - Coke: The cost is decreasing, and there is a strong expectation of price cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - Coking Coal: Coal mines are accumulating inventory, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - Silicon Iron: Market confidence is low, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - Manganese Silicon: Inventory pressure is high, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on cost prices and foreign quotes [9]. - Glass: Cold - repair is uncertain, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on spot sales [9]. - Soda Ash: Production is flat, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The Fed's rate - cut expectation is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [9]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on ore production and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - Zinc: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - Lead: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - Nickel: Environmental issues in Indonesian MHP production are causing price fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on macro - geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies [9]. - Stainless Steel: The rebound of nickel price has driven the recovery of the stainless - steel market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - Tin: Market sentiment has improved, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - Industrial Silicon: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and policy changes [9]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and the polysilicon price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and domestic photovoltaic policies [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand expectation has boosted the lithium price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and supply pressure persists. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [11]. - LPG: Supply is relatively tight, and the basis is at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - Asphalt: The price is oscillating around 3000. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on crude oil prices [11]. - Methanol: The shutdown progress is rapid, and the price may rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - energy and overseas shutdown dynamics [11]. - Urea: Inventory has significantly decreased, and the sentiment is bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on enterprise inventory reduction [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center is mainly adjusted widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and trade frictions [11]. - PX: The cost is average, and the supply - demand pattern is okay. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and aromatics blending for oil [11]. - PTA: The basis is strong, and the profit is slightly repaired. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes [11]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and peak - season demand [11]. - Bottle - Chip: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new - device commissioning [11]. - Propylene: The spot is strong, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [11]. - PP: The fundamental pressure remains, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Plastic: The oil price has fallen, and the maintenance support is limited. The short - term judgment is a weakly volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Styrene: The oil - blending narrative has faded, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - PVC: High inventory is suppressing the price, and it may be linked to production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - Caustic Soda: The value is low, and the supply - demand is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. - Oils and Fats: Market sentiment has stabilized, and the price may continue to be weakly bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - Protein Meal: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread is narrowing. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade frictions [11]. - Corn/Starch: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, and the price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on demand, macro - situation, and weather [11]. - Live Pigs: The live - pig spot price is weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - Natural Rubber: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations [11]. - Cotton: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the price is oscillating in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand and inventory [11]. - Sugar: In the long - term, the driving force is downward, but the cost provides short - term support. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on imports and Brazilian production [11]. - Pulp: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the futures logic for near - and far - term contracts is different. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [11]. - Offset Paper: The raw material price has fallen, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill production [11]. - Logs: The price of logs has fallen, and it is in a low - valuation area. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on shipping volume and sales volume [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 27, 2025, equity index futures declined while CGB Futures traded sideways; precious metals performed strongly, and the energy and chemical sectors remained weak [2][9][11] - Gold and silver prices are likely to hit the upper limit of the range again if a December rate cut is confirmed and the expectation of Hassett as Fed chair is further consolidated, with silver showing higher elasticity. Short - term, maintain a range - bound bullish bias [16][17] - The resilience of tin's supply - demand fundamentals is pushing the central level of tin prices higher [23][24] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IH fell by 0.11%, IM fell by 0.11%, TL fell by 0.01% [9] - Commodity futures: The top three gainers are Platinum (up 6.2%), Silver (up 3.4% with open interest increasing by 11.1% MoM), and Tin (up 2.1% with open interest increasing by 22.6% MoM). The top three decliners are Lithium Carbonate (down 1.7% with open interest increasing by 6.2% MoM), Bitumen (down 1.4% with open interest increasing by 1.4% MoM), and Polyester Staple Fiber (down 1.2% with open interest decreasing by 3.4% MoM) [10][11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Gold & Silver**: On November 27, Gold rose 0.1% to 947.16 yuan/g, Silver rose 3.4% to 12525 yuan/kg. Gold's rise was driven by a weaker USD, rising odds of a December 25bp rate cut, and forward pricing of the "Hassett Fed" framework. Year - to - date, gold/silver surged over 55%/nearly 80% [15][16][17] - **Tin**: On November 27, Tin rose 2.1% to 302200 yuan/ton. Supply remains tight due to slow resumption in Wa State, reduced exports from Indonesia, and unstable production in Africa. Demand is growing due to the rate - cut cycle in the US and Europe, growth in the semiconductor industry, and inventory restocking [22][23][24] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The US will extend the exemptions from tariffs imposed over issues related to technology transfer and intellectual property rights with China until November 10, 2026 [27] - The NDRC held a symposium on unordered price competition cost identification on Nov 24 to formulate cost identification standards and curb such practices [27] 3.2.2 Industry News - GFE launched Platinum and Palladium Futures/Options on Nov 27, with a combined turnover of 42.28 billion CNY (Platinum: 29.231 billion CNY; Palladium: 13.049 billion CNY) [28]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core View of the Report - Recently, the RMB has experienced a continuous appreciation trend, with the USD/Offshore RMB exchange rate breaking through the 7.08 and 7.07 levels, reaching a low near 7.06. There are three main reasons behind this: the weak Q3 employment data in the US and the deteriorating private - sector job growth in the latest ADP data have increased concerns about a non - linear rise in unemployment rates in October and November, leading to a higher expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, a decline in US Treasury yields, and a narrowing of the China - US interest rate spread, which promotes RMB appreciation; the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has been continuously adjusted in a stronger direction, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, a one - year high, and the positive signal from the China - US high - level call on November 24 has alleviated short - term concerns about tariff escalation; the good performance of the equity market and the continuous net inflow of northbound funds throughout the year have boosted RMB appreciation, and the expected increase in seasonal corporate settlement demand at the end of the year may further consolidate the RMB's appreciation momentum [2] 3) Summary by Related Content - **RMB Appreciation Trend**: The USD/Offshore RMB exchange rate has broken through 7.08 and 7.07, reaching around 7.06 [2] - **Reasons for RMB Appreciation**: - **US Economic Data and Fed Expectations**: Weak US Q3 employment data and deteriorating ADP data on private - sector jobs have increased concerns about unemployment rate hikes in October and November, leading to a higher expectation of a December Fed rate cut, a decline in US Treasury yields, and a narrowing of the China - US interest rate spread [2] - **Central Parity Rate and Diplomatic Signals**: The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar has been adjusted strongly, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, a one - year high. The November 24 China - US high - level call sent positive signals, alleviating short - term tariff concerns [2] - **Equity Market and Capital Flows**: The good performance of the equity market and the continuous net inflow of northbound funds throughout the year have promoted RMB appreciation, and the expected increase in year - end corporate settlement demand may further strengthen the appreciation momentum [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The refinery utilization rate in the US accelerated its recovery. Although the refinery utilization rate continued to rise from the bottom to 92.3%, the processing volume increased by 211,000 barrels per day, and the crude oil production decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 1,381.4 million barrels per day, the net import of crude oil increased by 1.046 million barrels per day, leading to an accumulation of commercial crude oil inventories by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21. After the refinery utilization rate rebounded, both gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, the apparent demand for gasoline rebounded, and the apparent demand for diesel declined. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased slightly, but the single - week data has limited indication [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog US Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Inventory Data - **Commercial Crude Oil Inventory**: Increased by 2.774 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 3.426 million barrels in the previous period [4][6]. - **Cushing Crude Oil Inventory**: Decreased by 68,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 698,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Strategic Petroleum Inventory**: Increased by 498,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 533,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Gasoline Inventory**: Increased by 2.513 million barrels, compared with an increase of 2.327 million barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Diesel Inventory**: Increased by 1.147 million barrels, compared with an increase of 171,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Jet Fuel Inventory**: Increased by 370,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 146,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Fuel Oil Inventory**: Decreased by 531,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 287,000 barrels in the previous period [6]. - **Total Inventory of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (excluding SPR)**: Increased by 1.562 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 2.715 million barrels in the previous period [6]. US Crude Oil Production, Demand and Trade Data - **Crude Oil Production**: Decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 1,381.4 million barrels per day [4][6]. - **Refinery Crude Oil Processing Volume**: Increased by 211,000 barrels per day to 16.443 million barrels per day [4][6]. - **Apparent Demand for Refined Oil Products**: Increased to 20.24 million barrels per day from 20.157 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Apparent Demand for Gasoline**: Increased to 8.726 million barrels per day from 8.528 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Apparent Demand for Diesel**: Decreased to 3.362 million barrels per day from 3.882 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Crude Oil Import**: Increased to 6.436 million barrels per day from 5.95 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Crude Oil Export**: Decreased to 3.598 million barrels per day from 4.158 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - **Refinery Utilization Rate**: Increased to 92.3% from 90% in the previous period [4][6]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The weakening of the US dollar, the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut, and the enhanced expectation of a more dovish "Hassett Fed" policy have led to a continued strong - oscillating pattern for gold and silver. Geopolitical conflicts and energy - chain risks have added additional support. The mid - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - The weakening US economic data, including retail sales, consumer confidence, employment, and PPI, has increased the market's bet on a December interest rate cut. The probability of a 25bp cut in December is over 80% according to swap contracts [3]. - Gold's structural support is solid. Central bank gold purchases remain high, physical demand is resilient, and there is a potential marginal inflow in the ETF segment. Since the beginning of the year, gold and silver have risen by over 55% and nearly 80% respectively, driven by the decline in global real interest rates, the weakening of the dollar cycle, and central bank purchases [3]. - If the December interest rate cut is realized and the expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed chair is further strengthened, gold and silver prices may hit the upper limit of the range again, with silver having higher elasticity [3]. Group 2: Key Information - US economic data is weak. Retail sales in September only slightly rebounded, consumer confidence had the largest decline this year, and employment and PPI were also mild. The probability of a December interest rate cut continues to rise [2]. - Tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with multiple night attacks between Israel and Gaza. There is a risk of the local war spreading, and the global risk appetite is suppressed [2]. - The European energy chain faces winter uncertainties. Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil and power facilities have made European countries re - evaluate winter gas and power security and discuss additional reserves and supply alternatives [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The weekly price ranges are maintained at [4030 - 4200] for London gold and [50 - 55] for London silver [4]. Group 4: Index Information Special Index - The commodity index is 2241.06, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index is 2543.53, up 0.04%; the industrial products index is 2200.67, up 0.03%; the PPI commodity index is 1336.40, down 0.13% [44]. Sector Index - The precious metals index on November 26, 2025, is up 0.25% today, up 1.28% in the past 5 days, up 4.87% in the past month, and up 52.36% year - to - date [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The construction industry is in the off - season, with limited bright spots in the fundamentals of the black building materials sector, and prices are under pressure. However, with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, there may be positive macro and policy news, and attention should be paid to potential phased upward opportunities driven by improved macro sentiment [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis, with reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil and increased shipments from non - mainstream regions. Port inventories decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis. Iron water is expected to continue a slight downward trend, but there is still an expectation for iron ore restocking demand, and iron ore prices are firm. Scrap steel supply increases while demand remains stable, with limited price decline space, and prices are expected to oscillate [4] Carbon Element - After profit restoration and environmental protection relaxation, coke supply has stabilized. In the short term, steel mills' rigid demand support remains, but the cost support for spot goods continues to weaken, and the expectation of price cuts in the market is rising. Coke futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal. Domestic coking coal supply remains low, with no obvious weakening in fundamentals. After the spot price correction, there is still an expectation for downstream winter restocking. The near - term contracts of coking coal futures are suppressed by delivery, while the far - term contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [4] Alloys - Manganese silicon has cost support, but the market supply - demand is loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level around the cost. Silicon iron also has cost support, but supply - demand is also loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level around the cost [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass supply has potential disruptions, but high inventory restricts price increases. If there is no further cold - repair by the end of the year, prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are near the cost, with obvious bottom support, but the oversupply situation restricts price increases. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [7] Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: In the off - season, fundamentals are lackluster, and the futures market is under pressure. Spot market trading is weak. Steel mills' profit margins continue to decline, and production is expected to decrease. Construction site funds are in short supply, and demand is weakening. Although inventory is decreasing, it is still higher than the same period last year. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [9] - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production is decreasing, but ore prices are still resilient. Overseas mine shipments have decreased, and port arrivals have increased. Iron water is expected to continue a slight downward trend, but there is an expectation for restocking demand. Ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [9] - **Scrap Steel**: The profit of electric furnaces has improved, and daily consumption has slightly increased. Supply has increased slightly, demand is stable, and prices are expected to oscillate [11] - **Coke**: Costs are continuously decreasing, and the expectation of price cuts is strong. Supply has stabilized after profit restoration and environmental protection relaxation, and inventory is decreasing. However, the cost support for spot goods is weakening, and the market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12] - **Coking Coal**: Coal mines continue to accumulate inventory, and pressure on the futures market remains. Domestic supply remains low, and there is an expectation for downstream restocking after the price correction. The near - term contracts are expected to oscillate, and the far - term contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13] - **Glass**: The uncertainty of cold - repair remains, and the improvement of actual supply - demand is limited. Supply is expected to decrease, but high inventory restricts price increases. If there is no further cold - repair by the end of the year, prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices may rise [14] - **Soda Ash**: Production remains flat on a month - on - month basis, and spot trading is weak. Prices are near the cost, with obvious bottom support, but the oversupply situation restricts price increases. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [14] - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and the futures market oscillates at a low level. Cost support remains, but the market supply - demand is loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [16] - **Silicon Iron**: Market confidence is insufficient, and futures prices are running weakly. Cost support is strong, but supply - demand is loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weaker and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [3]. - For crude oil, if the geopolitical support gradually weakens, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [8][9]. - For other products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., they are mostly in a state of volatile trends, with specific outlooks varying according to their respective supply - demand and cost factors [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. If geopolitical support weakens, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [8][9]. - **Market News**: The number of active oil rigs in the US decreased significantly. US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week of November 21, 2025. Trump loosened the deadline for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the Ukrainian side denied agreeing to the US peace plan [8]. - **Main Logic**: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue continuously disturbs the geopolitical premium of crude oil. The increase in net imports led to an increase in crude oil inventory. The overall supply - surplus situation still exerts pressure on inventory accumulation [8][9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: It oscillates around the key level of 3000 [10]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to increase production in December. The Venezuelan raw material supply may be disrupted. The futures pricing returns to the Shandong spot, and the spot price in Shandong has stabilized, supporting the futures price. However, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still large [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The futures price is in a weak and volatile state [3]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to increase production in December. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening. The refinery processing demand is weak, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The futures price is in a weak and volatile state [3]. - **Main Logic**: It follows the decline of refined oil products. Although it is supported by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, the overall demand is facing headwinds such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [13]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The production suspension progresses rapidly, and the futures price rises again [3]. - **Main Logic**: The Chinese methanol port inventory decreased. The Iranian device shutdown progressed rapidly. The domestic market was affected by multiple positive factors such as improved market sentiment, reduced port arbitrage, increased olefin external procurement demand, and tightened supply [31]. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: The inventory significantly decreased, and the bullish sentiment is strong [3]. - **Main Logic**: Although the supply is at a high level and the demand is weak, the inventory decreased significantly, which promoted the futures price to rise slightly [32]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The price center is mainly adjusted in a wide range. Pay attention to the dynamics of oil - based devices [3]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, there is no further positive support on the supply - demand side. Some domestic coal - based devices are about to restart, but the downstream polyester demand still provides support [24][25]. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: The cost performance is average, and the efficiency is maintained under a good supply - demand pattern [3]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are oscillating weakly, and the cost support for PX is general. The downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and the peak season, and the polyester segment provides support for PX [16]. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The basis is strong, and the profit is slightly repaired [3]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are generally stable, and PX prices are relatively firm. The supply - demand of PTA has improved, and the downstream polyester load remains high. There is a possibility of phased inventory reduction in November - December [16][17]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it passively follows the upstream [3]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester cost fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The short - fiber price follows the cost and oscillates [27][28]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is in a stalemate [3]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost has a certain support for the polyester bottle - chip price, but the trading atmosphere has declined after the price increase, and the processing fee fluctuates in a narrow range [29]. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and PL oscillates [3]. - **Main Logic**: The supply restart is delayed, the overall supply is tight, the enterprise inventory is controllable, and the downstream follow - up is active [37]. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: The fundamental pressure still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in maintenance [3]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating and falling. The fundamental support for PP is limited, the production release pressure is large, and the inventory in the middle reaches is at a high level. The focus is on the changes in maintenance [36]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices decline, the maintenance support is limited, and it oscillates weakly [3]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are in a weak and volatile state. The fundamental support for plastics is limited, the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [34][35]. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: The narrative of blending for oil fades, and it returns to oscillation [3]. - **Main Logic**: The driving force of blending for oil is questionable, and after the premium is squeezed out, the downward space is limited. The supply - demand contradiction in December - January is not significant [22]. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: High inventory suppresses, and PVC may anchor production reduction [3]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level policies in December may affect market expectations. At the micro - level, the high inventory of PVC is difficult to reduce, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production reduction [38]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: It operates in a weak supply - demand and low - valuation state with oscillation [3]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, pay attention to the influence of the Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest - rate decision in December. At the micro - level, the supply - demand of caustic soda is expected to be poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can promote upstream production reduction [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PP, etc. are provided, showing their latest values and changes [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including their latest values and changes [42]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on inter - variety spreads, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, along with their latest values and changes [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content other than the product names (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) is provided for detailed analysis. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed slight increases, while the PPI commodity index decreased slightly [285]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index showed a decline, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a 5 - day decline of 2.23%, a 1 - month decline of 4.55%, and a year - to - date decline of 9.17% [286].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply contraction expectations have intensified again, with polysilicon leading the rise in new energy metals. In the short - to - medium term, lithium carbonate has stopped falling due to tight supply - demand, and polysilicon prices may rise due to supply contraction expectations. In the long term, silicon supply contraction is expected, and the supply - demand surplus of lithium carbonate is narrowing [3]. - For industrial silicon, there is a situation of weak supply and demand during the dry season, and the price will fluctuate. For polysilicon, policy expectations have risen again, and the price will fluctuate and rebound. For lithium carbonate, demand expectations have boosted the price, which will oscillate at a high level [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: During the dry season, supply and demand are both weak, and the silicon price will oscillate [8]. - **Information Analysis**: As of November 26, 2025, the spot price of industrial silicon is stable. The domestic inventory is 448,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. In October, the domestic monthly output was 452,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The export volume in October was 45,073 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.8%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in October was 12.6GW, a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3%. The organic silicon industry may enter a production - cut and price - support stage [8]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces in the southwest has decreased rapidly, and the supply in the northwest fluctuates slightly. On the demand side, the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon industries may decline, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The social inventory is still at a high level, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipts registration [8]. - **Outlook**: If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will weaken further, but the short - term market sentiment is volatile, so the price will oscillate [8]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations have risen again, and the polysilicon price will fluctuate and rebound [8]. - **Information Analysis**: As of November 26, 2025, the average transaction price of N - type re -投料 is 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 7,270 lots. In October, the export volume decreased by 58% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 39.1% year - on - year. From January to October, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association will promote industry self - discipline and "anti - involution" work [9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, policy expectations have risen. In terms of supply, production in the southwest will decrease during the dry season, and long - term attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution policies. In terms of demand, the demand has weakened since November. Overall, the demand has declined marginally, but the supply is also shrinking, and the anti - involution policy is expected to strengthen, so the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [10][11]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy can boost the price, but the demand is weakening, so the price will show a wide - range oscillation [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Demand expectations have boosted the price, which will oscillate at a high level [8]. - **Information Analysis**: On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.99% to 96,340 yuan/ton, and the total position increased by 22,323 lots to 1,055,957 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 750 yuan/ton to 92,800 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, supply and demand are both strong, and de - stocking is expected to continue from November to December. The supply is growing strongly but is restricted by ore shortages. The demand is good, and speculative demand may emerge. The social inventory is de - stocking, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo. In the long term, a bullish view is recommended [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price will oscillate at a high level [13]. 2. Market Monitoring No specific content provided for analysis. 3. Commodity Index - On November 26, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2,241.06, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index was 2,543.53, up 0.04%; the industrial products index was 2,200.67, up 0.03%; the PPI commodity index was 1,336.40, down 0.13% [54]. - The new energy commodity index on November 26, 2025, was 451.43, with a daily increase of 0.35%, a decrease of 0.33% in the past 5 days, an increase of 6.41% in the past month, and an increase of 9.47% since the beginning of the year [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Macro: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the expectation of a December rate cut. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and it is recommended to follow the key voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: China's internal economic momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan in policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has remained stable since May, suggesting the central bank may not rush to further relax policies. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have increased, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate work demand and production capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payrolls, the December rate - cut expectation was initially lowered, and the US dollar index rose. However, the New York Fed President's speech lifted the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to balance asset allocation in Q4, and pay attention to opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals during market dips [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The Fed's expectation management is shifting, with a possible dovish turn in key figures' speeches in the next two weeks [8]. - Domestic: Policy measures may support Q4 infrastructure investment. The central bank may not rush to relax policies. Real - estate sales have improved, but land transactions and work demand are weak [8]. - Asset Allocation: Balance asset allocation in Q4. Look for buying opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals during market dips [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: With reduced overseas shocks, the risk appetite may rise. Stock index futures may rise in a volatile manner, stock index options may remain stable, and treasury bond futures may also rise in a volatile way [9]. - **Precious Metals**: In a short - term adjustment phase, gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the freight rate decline rate of the European container shipping line, which is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Black Building Materials**: The rebound momentum is weakening. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Optimism is rising, and base metals may stop falling and rebound, with most products expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade situation has slightly eased, but the supply - demand imbalance persists. Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate, while some may decline [11]. - **Agriculture**: Market sentiment has improved, but trends are divergent. Some agricultural products are expected to rise, while others may decline or remain stable [11].