Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - outlook is repeatedly but relatively stable, and aluminum ingots are steadily making up for lost ground. In the medium - to - short - term, supply disruptions continue to support the prices of base metals, but macro support has weakened, leading to base metals rising and then falling. With the copper - aluminum ratio remaining above 4, opportunities for aluminum ingots to make up for lost ground can be continuously focused on. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [2]. - For individual metals: - Copper: After the Fed's rate cut, copper prices are operating at a high level and are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [8][9]. - Alumina: The current fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating [9]. - Aluminum: The macro environment remains positive, and aluminum prices are rising with fluctuations [12][13]. - Aluminum alloy: Scrap aluminum remains in short supply, and the market is fluctuating and moderately strong [14][15]. - Zinc: The accumulation of social inventory has significantly slowed down, and zinc prices have rebounded slightly [17]. - Lead: Social inventory remains at a low level, and lead prices are fluctuating [18]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and nickel prices are fluctuating [20][21]. - Stainless steel: Nickel - iron prices are falling, and the stainless - steel market is operating weakly [21][22]. - Tin: Raw material supply is tight, and tin prices are fluctuating at a high level [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's rate cut, copper prices are operating at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and moderately strong [8]. - **Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29. In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month, a 4.31% decline, and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. As of November 3, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 1.75 tons to 20.01 tons. On October 30, Sino - US leaders met and agreed to strengthen cooperation in various fields [8]. - **Logic**: The Fed's rate cut has been implemented, and Powell's remarks are slightly hawkish, leading to short - term adjustments in copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen, causing a decline in electrolytic copper production. On the demand side, the peak demand season has arrived, but inventory reduction is not obvious, and high prices are suppressing demand [9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating [9]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the comprehensive price of alumina in the north remained flat at 2840 yuan, and the national weighted index decreased by 8.8 yuan to 2862.4 yuan. Affected by environmental control, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei plans to shut down 2 roasting furnaces for maintenance from 18:00 on November 3 and resume on November 8 [9][10]. - **Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment has amplified market fluctuations. On the fundamental side, high - cost production capacity has fluctuated, but supply contraction is not obvious, and the domestic market is still in a strong inventory - accumulation trend. However, as the valuation enters a low - level range, price fluctuations may increase [10][11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The macro environment remains positive, and aluminum prices are rising with fluctuations, with a medium - term outlook of the price center continuing to move up [12][13]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum was 21440 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream consumption area's aluminum rod inventory remained unchanged at 13.80 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 62.7 tons. The Fed cut interest rates as expected and will stop reducing the balance sheet from December 1. Sino - US leaders reached a consensus on tariff suspension [12]. - **Logic**: The macro environment remains positive. On the supply side, domestic operating capacity and the start - up rate are at a high level, while overseas supply has continuous marginal disruptions. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has passed, terminal demand is stable, and social inventory reduction has slowed down. The copper - aluminum ratio is above 4, and the valuation of aluminum is relatively low [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Scrap aluminum remains in short supply, and the market is fluctuating and moderately strong in the short - term, with a medium - term outlook of price fluctuations [14][15]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 21000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. It is estimated that the retail market scale of narrow - sense passenger cars in October will reach about 2.2 million units, a 2% month - on - month decline [14][15]. - **Logic**: On the cost side, the shortage of scrap aluminum supply is difficult to change in the short - term. On the supply side, the weekly start - up rate has slightly increased, but some alloy plants face the risk of production reduction or suspension. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement, and automobile sales are resilient [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The accumulation of social inventory has significantly slowed down, and zinc prices have rebounded slightly, with a medium - to - long - term outlook of price decline [17]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the spot price of Shanghai 0 zinc was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the main contract. As of November 3, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 16.17 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons from last Thursday. A new earthquake occurred at the Xantho Extended ore body of the Golden Grove mine in Western Australia, and the company withdrew its full - year zinc production guidance [17]. - **Logic**: The Sino - US economic and trade relationship shows a缓和 signal, and the 15th Five - Year Plan is becoming clearer. On the supply side, the short - term supply of zinc ore has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with high production enthusiasm. On the demand side, domestic consumption is entering the off - season, and demand expectations are average [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory remains at a low level, and lead prices are fluctuating moderately strong [18]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10025 yuan/ton, and the original - recycled price difference was 75 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17225 yuan, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 3.02 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons from last Thursday. In November, the maintenance and resumption of production of primary lead and recycled lead enterprises are concurrent, and lead ingot inventory may increase [18]. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot premium and the original - recycled price difference are stable. On the supply side, the price of scrap batteries is stable, and the production of recycled lead smelters is increasing, while the production of primary lead smelters is decreasing. On the demand side, although some lead - acid battery factories have temporarily reduced production, the overall start - up rate is high [18]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and nickel prices are fluctuating [20][21]. - **Analysis**: On November 2, LME nickel inventory was 252750 tons, an increase of 648 tons from the previous trading day. Asian Battery Metals Company is actively exploring its copper - nickel and copper - gold project portfolio in Mongolia. Rongbai Technology has achieved ten - ton - level shipments of high - nickel and ultra - high - nickel all - solid - state cathode materials [20]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the production of intermediate products has recovered. The market is in a state of excess, and inventory is accumulating [21]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel - iron prices are falling, and the stainless - steel market is operating weakly, with an outlook of range - bound fluctuations [21][22]. - **Analysis**: The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory is 73482 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day. The average price of SMM's 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.5 yuan/nickel point. In October, stainless - steel production continued to increase, and social inventory slightly increased [21][22]. - **Logic**: Nickel - iron and chromium prices are falling, and the cost support for steel prices is weakening. Although production has increased, downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited, and inventory may continue to accumulate during the off - season [22][23]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Raw material supply is tight, and tin prices are fluctuating at a high level [23]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 130 tons to 2830 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 56 tons to 5730 tons. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's 1 tin ingot was 285400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day [23]. - **Logic**: Supply constraints in the tin market still exist, and the bottom support for tin prices is strengthening. In Wa State, production may be delayed, and in Indonesia, the supply of refined tin is expected to be tight. However, the resumption of production by Yunxi has led to an increase in the start - up rate of refined tin, and inventory reduction has slowed down, limiting the upward space for tin prices [23]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On November 3, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 0.10% to 2250.33, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.02% to 2546.82, the industrial products index increased by 0.09% to 2237.50, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.15% to 1352.44 [146]. - **Sector Index**: On November 3, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index increased by 0.50% to 2494.27, with a 0.57% increase in the past 5 days, a 3.38% increase in the past month, and an 8.06% increase since the beginning of the year [147].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metal prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern, with a trading window in December. In the long run, the price center of gold is expected to move upward, and silver's price center is expected to follow gold's long - term upward trend [1][3][6]. - Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks, and the global central bank's gold - buying trend continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Logic - On Monday, precious metal prices oscillated. After the domestic market opened, prices fell slightly and then recovered. The domestic gold tax adjustment policy had little impact on the gold market, but some spot gold prices increased due to tax transfer after the reform [1][3]. - After the phased easing of trade frictions and the October interest - rate meeting, there is no significant driver for precious metal prices this month. In December, there may be a game around next year's interest - rate cut space. Personnel changes at the Fed may become a positive driving factor. In the long run, over - issued debt and de - globalization drive the decline of the US dollar's credit, making gold a good hedge [3][6]. 3.2 Key Information - According to a poll, 52% of US voters think the Republican Party is responsible for the government shutdown, 42% blame the Democratic Party, and 4% think both are responsible. The proportion blaming the Democratic Party is the highest in nearly 30 years [2]. - The US Supreme Court will hold a hearing on Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy. Trump believes it is one of the most important rulings in the court's history and warns of serious consequences if he has to abandon the policy [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that parts of the US economy may be in recession due to high interest rates and called on the Fed to cut rates faster. Stephen Milan, a dovish Fed official, also called for more aggressive rate cuts [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook - This week, the price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and London silver in the range of [46, 52] [6]. 3.4 Index Performance - On November 3, 2025, the composite index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index was 2546.82 (+0.02%), the industrial products index was 2237.50 (+0.09%), and the PPI commodity index was 1352.44 (+0.15%) [44]. - The precious metals index on November 3, 2025, was 3253.40, with a daily increase of 0.09%, a 5 - day increase of 2.76%, a 1 - month increase of 7.80%, and a year - to - date increase of 47.05% [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7]. Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of this week, the macro and policy fronts "paused", and the subsequent inventory pressure corresponding to the high arrival of iron ore made the iron ore price relatively under pressure. After entering November, the molten iron output will decline seasonally, weakening the demand support for the furnace charge end. However, seasonal production cuts rather than negative - feedback production cuts will put relatively limited downward pressure on the prices of industrial chain varieties. If the macro and policy levels release positive news later, it will still support the prices of sector varieties [1][2]. - The fundamentals of the industrial chain will gradually weaken marginally. Since the decline in molten iron is mainly due to the seasonal production cuts of steel enterprises, the negative feedback on sector varieties is limited. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of macro and policy introduction and pay attention to phased upward opportunities [7]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - The arrival rhythm of iron ore is significantly disturbed, and the port inventory is rapidly accumulating. The fundamentals of iron ore are not optimistic, but the decline of ore price is limited. The scrap steel fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and it is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate following the finished products in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke continues to strengthen, and the third round of price increase is expected to be implemented. However, under the pressure on both coking and steel mill profits, the price is expected to oscillate. The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy, with the price expected to oscillate [2]. Alloy - The high steel output and stable cost support the prices of ferromanganese - silicon and ferrosilicon in the short term, but the supply of ferromanganese - silicon is expected to remain high, with inventory pressure and limited upward driving force. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively loose, suppressing the upward price space [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Some production lines in the Shahe area stopped production, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. If the production and sales remain weak, the price will return to weak oscillation. In the long term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to decline oscillating. The over - supply pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [3]. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is weak, and the speculative sentiment is poor. The molten iron output declines, the five major steel products output increases, the demand continues to recover, and the inventory continues to decline. However, the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The short - term market is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the macro - policy and supply disturbances [9]. Iron Ore - The spot price has weakened significantly. Overseas mine shipments decreased, and arrivals increased significantly. The demand for molten iron decreased, and the port inventory accumulated rapidly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The supply is slightly tight, the overall daily consumption decreases, and the inventory is de - stocked. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate following the finished products [11]. Coke - The cost support is strengthening, and the third - round price increase is expected to be implemented. However, both coking and steel mill profits are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Coking Coal - The supply is difficult to improve, and the downstream and middle - stream procurement is continuous. The coal mine inventory has reached a low level in recent years, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [14]. Glass - The short - term supply may decline, but the demand is weak, and the middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The short - term price may return to weak oscillation, and in the long term, it is expected to decline oscillating [15]. Soda Ash - The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support is strengthened, and the price bottom support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [16][17]. Ferromanganese - Silicon - The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price. However, the supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and the upward driving force for the price is insufficient [18]. Ferrosilicon - The high steel output and increased cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, suppressing the upward price space [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex and diversified trend with different products having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, the prices of some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, trade policies, and weather conditions [1][6][7]. - Different agricultural products are expected to have different trends in the future, such as some products are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to have upward potential [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**：走势分化，棕油情绪偏弱。美豆上涨但美豆油下跌，国内油脂走势分化，菜油反弹、豆油抗跌、棕油偏弱。宏观环境复杂，产业端美豆数据暂停更新，巴西大豆种植顺利，国内进口大豆到港量或处同期较高水平，马棕10月继续累库概率大，印尼棕油库存低位，印度植物油进口或季节性下降，国内菜油供应预期回升 [6]. - **展望**：棕油震荡偏弱，菜油震荡偏弱，豆油震荡。主要驱动因素包括马棕累库预期、印度植物油进口季节性下降、巴西豆种植顺利、国内菜油供应预期回升、进口大豆成本抬升 [6]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**：中加关系扰动，菜粕大幅上涨。国际上，美豆出口预期受提振，巴西豆旧作10月出口量下调，新作播种进度同比偏快，阿根廷豆播种开启；国内短期油厂开机率回落，库存回升，中期采购、天气和消费旺季决定上涨高度，长期预计2025年四季度和2026年一季度大豆供需无缺口，中加关系或缓和。中加关税预期变化引发资金做多菜粕 [7]. - **展望**：美豆震荡、连粕震荡。豆粕价格受成本等因素驱动上涨，榨利修复抑制盘面，期价回调风险加大。建议豆粕1 - 5反套持有，看涨买权止盈，看跌卖权持有 [7]. 3.1.3. 玉米及淀粉 - **观点**：港口支撑盘面上行。国内玉米价格涨跌不一，港口受期货上涨影响价格上调，近期东北玉米集中上市，运输运力瓶颈对价格有支撑，但后续现货价格仍存在压力 [9][10]. - **展望**：震荡。短期观望为主 [10]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**：猪源充裕，价格走弱。短期二育栏舍利用率增加但猪价反弹抑制二育情绪，集团场出栏节奏偏快；中期预计四季度生猪出栏量继续增加；长期能繁母猪产能开始去化，供应压力将在2026年下半年逐步减轻 [10][11]. - **展望**：震荡偏弱。近月端生猪处在高位产能兑现期，价格弱势运行；远月端受去产能预期支撑，关注反套策略机会 [11]. 3.1.5. 天然橡胶 - **观点**：反弹告一段落，等待新的指引。天胶先跌后涨，维持底部横盘震荡调整格局，RU仓单持续注销，新胶注册进度慢，估值低，11月进口压力或对NR上方形成压力，短期RU - NR价差或修复，近期涨跌受宏观影响大 [12][13]. - **展望**：胶价维持底部震荡高弹性走势，单边难有趋势性行情，短期关注做扩RU - NR价差 [13]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**：原料持续走弱，盘面创上市新低。主要因原料丁二烯价格快速探底，市场供需矛盾激化，下游买盘谨慎，市场供应面持续承压，年底前两个月丁二烯供需依旧偏过剩 [15][16]. - **展望**：基本面与原料端压力均较大，在丁二烯出现明显供需矛盾之前，盘面建议逢高布空 [16]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**：可预期利多多已消化，棉价短期继续上行动力减弱。宏观面贸易关系转好，盘面逻辑回归基本面，国内供给端新棉集中上市，需求端棉纺需求边际减弱，估值端对01合约有支撑但主力合约上行受限 [16][17]. - **展望**：短期01合约区间震荡；长期25/26年度中国棉花年度平衡表可能去库，带动棉价上行，震荡偏强 [17]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**：糖价反弹，但高度有限。国际市场巴西双周产量高峰期已过，但北半球进入开榨高峰期，国际糖价下行压力不改；国内市场近期反弹因进口管控趋严，但基本面无其它利多，南方糖开榨后供应量增多，内盘也有下行压力 [17][18]. - **展望**：中长期震荡偏弱，操作上维持反弹空思路，糖价运行区间参考5400 - 5500元/吨 [18]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**：下游涨价预期驱动盘面上涨，上涨空间仍需谨慎。期货上涨，现货成交好转，针叶价格普涨，但纸浆此前交易的利空未完全结束，下游需求利多带来的上涨空间预计不高，同时也存在一些利多因素 [19][20]. - **展望**：震荡。仓单及弱供需主导市场，但废纸浆变化或带来异动，纸浆期货偏向观望 [20]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**：双胶纸跟随纸浆走强。新增装置生产逐步趋稳，纸张供应过剩，需求端出版招标开始但社会面订单未见明显提振，部分工厂产销压力较大，纸企发布涨价计划但市场观望情绪浓厚 [21][22]. - **展望**：单边策略维持观望。关注新驱动对资金情绪的影响 [22]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**：上下两难，底部震荡。市场对利空交易充分，信息面海运费用升水挤出，基本面转弱，港口到货集中，集成材销售成交下降，新西兰原木外盘报价有调整，后期到船蓝变材压力大，但原木估值不高，江苏市场库存相对偏低 [24]. - **展望**：原木基本面转弱，现货存下跌，信息面博弈反复，近期底部区间震荡 [25]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 The report only lists the categories such as "油脂油料", "玉米、淀粉", "棉花、棉纱", "白糖", "纸浆及双胶纸", "原木", but no specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - **综合 Index**：The commodity 20 index is 2546.82, up 0.02%; the industrial products index is 2237.50, up 0.09%; the PPI commodity index is 1352.44, up 0.15% [182]. - **板块指数 - 农产品指数**：On November 3, 2025, it was 927.07, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a decrease of 0.40% in the past 5 days, a decrease of 2.07% in the past month, and a decrease of 2.90% since the beginning of the year [183].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The stock market is tentatively in a volatile phase, while the bond market may receive a boost. Specifically, the stock index futures showed a V-shaped reversal, the stock index options were dominated by out-of-the-money call selling, and the bond market curve flattened [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The market showed a V-shaped reversal. The all-A index rose 0.39% with trading volume slightly exceeding 2.1 trillion. Coal, oil and gas, and building products led the gains. The dividend index and micro-cap index were dominant, and the dumbbell structure outperformed the market recently. November is a volatile period, and it is recommended to shift technology funds to the price increase chain and continue the dumbbell configuration. The operation suggestion is to hold IM + dividend index [3][9]. Stock Index Options - The market was dominated by out-of-the-money call selling. The underlying market opened lower in the morning and recovered in the afternoon. The option market turnover was 911.2 million yuan, a 11.72% decrease from the previous day. It is recommended to maintain the covered call strategy [4][9]. Bond Futures - The bond market curve flattened. Most bond futures closed down, with the long end performing better. The central bank's net withdrawal of funds had little impact on the overall loose liquidity. The decline in the October manufacturing PMI supported the long end of the bond market. It is expected that the bond market will be volatile and slightly stronger. Operation suggestions include trend strategy (volatile and slightly stronger), hedging strategy (focus on long substitution at high basis), basis strategy (focus on positive arbitrage opportunities and basis widening), and curve strategy (focus on curve steepening) [5][10][11]. 2. Economic Calendar - The report lists the economic data release schedule for the week, including China's October SPGI manufacturing PMI (actual value 50.6, previous value 51.2), and upcoming data such as the US October ADP employment change and China's October trade balance [12]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement worth 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won for five years [13]. - The Ministry of Finance's Debt Management Department has been listed in the "Ministry Organs" list, with clear responsibilities for government debt management [13]. - Regarding the US threat of imposing tariffs on China due to rare earth export controls, China stated that dialogue and cooperation are the correct ways to solve problems [14]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes sections on stock index futures data, stock index options data, and bond futures data, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [15][19][31].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/04 Commentary: Rapeseed Meal, Crude Oil, Aluminum Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy trends. 宏观：中欧出口管制对话磋商在布鲁塞尔举行。 China Futures Daily Note 期货：11 月 3 日，股指期货涨跌不一，多数国债期货下跌；商品期货涨跌不一，幅度有限。 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Co ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Policy boots have landed, risk appetite has recovered, and the idea of balanced allocation is maintained. With the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the end of balance - sheet reduction, the achievement of phased economic and trade results in the China - US summit, and the release of specific contents of the Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal", market sentiment has improved. The marginal improvement in liquidity and the easing of China - US economic and trade relations will benefit domestic and overseas equity assets again, especially in the directions of technology, independent manufacturing, and innovation. However, the short - term policy benefits have been fully priced in, and valuation pressure and capital congestion may cause the stock index to fluctuate and consolidate. In the medium term, as the "15th Five - Year Plan" is implemented and the policies of the Two Sessions next year are put into effect, the upward momentum of the equity market still exists. At present, it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation idea. Non - ferrous metals perform relatively well supported by the technology cycle and trade recovery. Black commodities have phased rebound opportunities due to policy expectations and valuation repair. Bonds maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Precious metals are sorted out in the short term but the medium - and long - term allocation value remains unchanged. The overall strategy framework of "balanced allocation, structural attack" is continued [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% in the October meeting and announced to end balance - sheet reduction and fully renew Treasury bonds and agency MBS from December to cope with the rising reserve demand and short - term interest rate fluctuations. This operation reflects the risk management idea in the economic data vacuum period, taking into account both stable growth and liquidity stability [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" set the tone of "technological self - reliance, anti - involution, and expanding domestic demand" and strengthen the "focus on economic construction". The PMI in October dropped to 49.0%. The manufacturing industry slowed down in the short term, but the construction and service industries remained expanding. Policy - based financial instruments and special bonds were accelerated to be implemented, investment repair accelerated, and the economy continued to stabilize [6]. - **Asset View**: With the implementation of policies, risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation. The improvement of liquidity and the easing of China - US economic and trade relations will benefit equity assets at home and abroad, especially in the technology, independent manufacturing, and innovation directions. In the short term, the stock index may fluctuate due to valuation pressure and capital congestion. In the medium term, the equity market still has upward momentum. Non - ferrous metals perform well, black commodities have rebound opportunities, bonds are volatile and slightly stronger, and precious metals have medium - and long - term allocation value [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. Concerns include the congestion of small - and micro - cap funds. Short - term judgment is volatile upward [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market turnover has slightly declined. Concerns include the liquidity of the options market falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Concerns include the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. Concerns include the rate of freight rate decline in September. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The macro - sentiment is volatile, and the market first rises and then falls. The supply - demand relationship weakens marginally, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is proposed. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is difficult to improve, and upstream inventory is continuously reduced. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost support still exists, but loose supply - demand suppresses prices. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand driving force is insufficient, and the price first rises and then falls. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Glass**: The meeting expectations have been realized, and downstream demand remains weak. Concerns include spot sales. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support is strengthened, but there is a lack of upward driving force. Concerns include soda ash inventory. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term. Concerns include supply disruptions, domestic policy exceeding expectations, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and domestic demand recovery falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure. Concerns include ore复产 falling short of expectations, electrolytic aluminum复产 exceeding expectations, and extreme sector trends. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices have risen in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile upward [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Lead**: The resumption of production of secondary lead smelters is imminent, and lead prices are volatile. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons, and nickel prices are weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro and geopolitical changes exceeding expectations, Indonesian policy risks, and supply release falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the stainless - steel market has rebounded slightly. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and demand growth exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are volatile. Concerns include the resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment is volatile, but supply is abundant, and silicon prices are volatile in the short term. Concerns include supply - side production cuts exceeding expectations and photovoltaic installation exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and lithium prices are slightly stronger. Concerns include demand falling short of expectations, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus, and attention should be paid to the cost side. Concerns include the cost of crude oil and overseas propane. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Asphalt**: Entering the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and asphalt futures prices are weak. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is an expected decline in Asia - Pacific fuel oil supply in November. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Methanol**: There is still port inventory pressure, and olefins have declined. Methanol fluctuates downward. Concerns include macro - energy and overseas dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Urea**: Market sentiment has cooled down. Urea may fluctuate and consolidate at the cost - support level after the decline. Concerns include coal prices. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The macro - environment lacks support, and the fundamentals are under pressure in the medium term. The price elasticity is average. Concerns include coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and China - US trade frictions. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **PX**: The "anti - involution" meeting has no conclusion but boosts the market. The downstream demand improvement still drives the upstream. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **PTA**: Macro - sentiment boosts the market, and downstream demand improvement supports the lower valuation. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The "anti - involution" disturbance of polyester raw materials has increased the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the market returns to fundamentals. Concerns include the downstream yarn factory's purchasing rhythm and the quality of peak - season demand. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee is under great pressure. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants. Concerns include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction targets. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Propylene**: The propane CP price has been lowered again. PL is weaker than PP in the short term. Concerns include oil prices and domestic macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **PP**: Maintenance is stable, and the propane CP price is lowered. PP is in a range. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance has increased slightly. Plastic is in a range. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Styrene**: Disturbed by macro - events, styrene fluctuates. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and plant dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and PVC is weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Demand support is limited, and caustic soda fluctuates downward. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The trends are differentiated, and palm oil sentiment is weak. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Disturbed by China - Canada relations, rapeseed meal has risen sharply. Concerns include weather, domestic demand, macro - environment, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market has declined again. It is recommended to hold short positions and observe. Concerns include demand, macro - environment, and weather. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is abundant, and prices are weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The willingness to sell has increased, and rubber prices have fallen from high levels. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw materials have continued to weaken, and the market has temporarily stabilized at a low level. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Cotton**: The expected benefits have been mostly digested, and the upward momentum of cotton prices has weakened in the short term. Concerns include demand and inventory. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have rebounded, but the upward space is limited. Concerns include imports and Brazilian production. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Pulp**: The spot market is generally weak, and futures are difficult to rise significantly. Concerns include macro - economic changes and US dollar - priced quotes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Offset Paper**: Offset paper follows pulp to strengthen. Concerns include production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Logs**: It is difficult to rise or fall, and the market is bottom - fluctuating. Concerns include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume. Short - term judgment is volatile [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the week ending November 2nd, global on - land crude oil inventories rebounded, floating storage inventories continued to rise significantly, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventories reached a new high for the year, with high inventory pressure compared to the same period last year. Regionally, weekly inventories in China and Europe increased, while those in India, Russia, and the Middle East decreased, and Russia's weekly inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Situation**: The full - scope (including in - transit) global crude oil inventories reached a new high for the year, and there was still significant inventory pressure year - on - year [2]. - **Regional Crude Oil Inventory Changes**: Weekly inventories in China and Europe accumulated, while those in India, Russia, and the Middle East decreased. Russia's weekly inventory fell to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [2].

Report Summary 1. Core Data - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 90.1%. This week, 154.9 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 42.5 billion yuan, and 45.2 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [4]. - As of October 31, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 287.4 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 18.3 billion yuan [5]. - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 17 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 15.7 billion yuan, and 0 yuan is planned to be issued next week [6]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 9.9 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is -36 billion yuan. As of November 2, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5% [9]. - As of November 2, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.0% [12]. - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 13.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 114.5 billion yuan. As of November 2, the net financing of treasury bonds + the issuance progress of new local bonds was 86.4% [15]. - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 23.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 150.4 billion yuan [19]. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 44th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, issuance scale, and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and treasury bonds, as well as their week-on-week changes and future issuance plans [4][6][9]

Report Summary Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 44, 2025 [2] Report Date - November 3, 2025 [3] Key Points 1. New Special Bond Issuance - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 90.1%. This week, 154.9 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a week - on - week increase of 42.5 billion yuan. Next week, 45.2 billion yuan is planned to be issued [4] 2. New General Bond Issuance - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 17 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week - on - week increase of 15.7 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 0 billion yuan [6] 3. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.9 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is - 36 billion yuan. As of November 2, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5% [9] 4. Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 23.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 150.4 billion yuan. As of November 2, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.0% [12][19] 5. Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 13.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 114.5 billion yuan. As of November 2, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 86.4% [15] 6. October Cumulative Issuance - As of October 31, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 287.4 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 18.3 billion yuan [5]