Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating upward", with individual variety ratings as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [7] - Iron ore: Oscillating [8] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [9] - Coke: Oscillating [11] - Coking coal: Oscillating upward [12] - Glass: Oscillating [13] - Soda ash: Oscillating [16] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [17] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [18] Core View of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has strengthened again, providing an upward driver for the sector. Combined with the replenishment logic, strong macro - expectations, and the approach of the National Day with enterprises starting pre - holiday stockpiling, it is expected that the sector will oscillate upward before the holiday. However, attention should be paid to the dynamics of China - US talks and the possible negative impact of overseas countries imposing additional tariffs on China [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - Policy - level mention of "anti - involution", along with production restrictions in Tangshan's coking and steel enterprises and coal over - production inspections in Inner Mongolia, has boosted market sentiment. Steel, coking coal, glass, and soda ash have shown strong performance, while iron ore has been relatively weak. In the later stage, although the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, it is expected to push up the sector's prices further considering the macro - level benefits during the peak season and the industry's replenishment [2]. Situation of Each Variety Iron Element - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy. The environmental protection - related production restrictions in Tangshan may have a limited impact on the overall demand, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. Port trading volume increased, overseas mine shipments returned to normal, 45 - port arrivals decreased, demand was supported in the short term, and the overall inventory level was neutral [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the trend of finished products. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply decreased, demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory decreased slightly [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The second - round price cut has been implemented. The futures market is strong, and the spot market sentiment has improved. The supply is basically stable, and the demand is strongly supported. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Coking coal: The supply is temporarily stable, and the demand for pre - holiday replenishment from downstream coking enterprises has been released. The price is expected to oscillate upward in the short term due to the strong "anti - involution" atmosphere, limited coal production growth, and macro - policy benefits [12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the price, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is expected to move downward [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: The short - term cost supports the price, and the decline space during the peak season is limited. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand relationship will loosen, and the price center will move downward [3][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if it returns to fundamental trading, the price is expected to decline [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures market, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the long - term price center will move downward to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. Steel - The spot market trading volume is average, and the inventory is accumulating, but the rate has slowed down. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. Although the cost support has weakened, the "anti - involution" sentiment and the warming macro - environment still support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [7]. Indexes - On September 16, 2025, the comprehensive index, special indexes (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, PPI commodity index), and the steel industry chain index all showed an upward trend [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for various agricultural products, including "Oscillating" for oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, live pigs, synthetic rubber, and sugar; "Oscillating Strongly" for natural rubber and cotton; "Oscillating Weakly" for corn/starch in the short term; and specific trading ranges and outlooks for double-offset paper and logs [5][6][8][10][11][13][14][16][19][21]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of multiple agricultural products, influenced by factors such as weather, supply and demand, policies, and international trade. For example, the decline in the good - rate of US soybeans affects the oil and protein meal markets; the new grain listing rhythm impacts the corn market; and the "anti - involution" policy affects the live pig market [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The good - rate of US soybeans continues to decline, and oils and fats continued to oscillate strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Affected by seasonal harvest pressure and demand concerns, US soybeans and soybean oil fluctuated. The macro - environment focuses on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, and the dollar weakened on Monday. Crude oil prices oscillated strongly due to concerns about Russian oil supply interruptions. In the industrial sector, the drought - affected area of US soybeans has expanded, and the good - rate has dropped to 63%. The import volume of domestic soybeans is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak. The production of Malaysian palm oil in September may be at a high level, and the probability of inventory accumulation is large. The demand for palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil continues to decline slowly, but it is still high year - on - year. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of the recent strengthening of oils and fats. The probability of a continued increase in oil prices in the medium term is high [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot market drags down the futures price, which tests the lower - edge support. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and a US interest - rate cut is almost certain. The September supply - demand report adjusted the US soybean area and yield. The good - rate of US soybeans is in line with expectations, and the export inspection is better than expected. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans needs attention. Domestically, in the short term, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills continues to accumulate, and the physical inventory of feed enterprises also rises slightly. In the long term, the purchase of soybeans in October is nearly completed, and the purchase in November is advancing. - **Outlook**: The macro - expectation is positive, the yield of US soybeans may still decline, and the sowing progress in South America is uncertain. The protein meal futures price continues to oscillate in the range, and it is recommended to hold long orders and take corresponding hedging measures [5]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The arrival volume of trucks is at a high level, and the futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The supply side is affected by the active grain sales in the trading link, and the inventory of each link is declining. The demand side is affected by the inventory situation of feed enterprises. In the short term, there is pressure from the new grain listing, and in the long term, the price is not pessimistic under the condition of tight carry - over inventory. - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The spot market pressure persists, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, the planned slaughter volume of farms in September increases, and the supply of pigs is abundant in the short, medium, and long terms. The "anti - involution" policy may gradually reduce the supply pressure in 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of pork to pig slightly increases, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is stable. The utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens decreases. - **Outlook**: The spot price is expected to oscillate. The futures market shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and pay attention to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [8]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It runs strongly and returns to the 16,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: After the 09 contract is delisted, the 01 contract is still strong, and it is also driven by the overall strengthening of commodities. The short - term reality shows strong spot, inventory reduction, and narrowing basis. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high without further positive drivers. The supply side needs to pay attention to the output and inventory reduction rate, and the demand side needs to observe the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises. - **Outlook**: The macro - sentiment is good, and the short - term fundamentals are also supportive. The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10][11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It runs in a range. - **Logic**: The BR futures price oscillates horizontally. It follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tight supply of raw material butadiene. In the medium - term, the expectation of many device overhauls from September to November and the low price reduce the bearish sentiment, but there is no continuous upward - driving force. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price is expected to rise slightly in the short term, and the futures price may oscillate strongly [12][13]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price fluctuates slightly, and pay attention to the dynamic of the purchase price. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazil and India are expected to increase production, while the US is expected to reduce production, but the global cotton production may not decrease significantly. Domestically, the commercial inventory is low, the downstream demand improves, and the opening price of new cotton is expected to be higher than last year. The Fed may cut interest rates in September, which may boost commodity prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it oscillates in the range of 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price oscillates slightly. - **Logic**: In the long term, the global sugar market supply is expected to be loose in the 25/26 crushing season, and the sugar price has a downward pressure. In the short term, the production and export of Brazilian sugar are in the peak season, and the domestic import also increases. However, the short - term downward space is limited, and there is a certain support for a rebound. - **Outlook**: In the long term, the sugar price has a downward - driving force and is expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, it runs in the range of 5,500 - 5,750 yuan [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment is temporarily stable, and the pulp enters a range - fluctuation market. - **Logic**: The pulp futures price rebounds after hitting a new low. The stabilization is mainly due to the non - excessive weakness of the double - offset paper futures after listing and the relief of the pressure of warehouse - receipt trading after the 09 contract delivery. The demand in the spot market is average. The price increase of the US dollar - denominated pulp has a weakened effect, and the resumption of production by Chenming brings additional supply. Although it is the seasonal peak season, the demand improvement is limited. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The expected fluctuation range is 4,950 - 5,300 yuan [17][18]. 3.1.10 Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The commodity sentiment rebounds, and the double - offset paper oscillates strongly. - **Logic**: The double - offset paper futures price rebounds with the commodity sentiment. In the short term, the fundamentals change little, the publisher's tender has not started, and there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. The spot price is at a neutral level, and there is no clear upward or downward driver. - **Outlook**: It is difficult to go up or down unilaterally. Consider operating in the range of 4,000 - 4,500 yuan [19][20]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The processing demand recovers slightly, and the spot price may have an upward - adjustment expectation. - **Logic**: The inventory of logs rebounds slightly, and the market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The arrival pressure in September improves, but it is expected to increase seasonally in October. The demand for logs in China is expected to increase in September - October, and the port is in the inventory - reduction stage. - **Outlook**: The log price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September [21]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for various varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, live pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [23][41][54][66][113][124][139][164]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "Strongly", "Oscillating Strongly", "Oscillating", "Oscillating Weakly", "Weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and the calculation method of standard deviation [178].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For global major assets, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. Domestically, the process of household deposit transfer indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets, such as CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting at 0:00 on September 18th. The market's baseline assumption for the interest - rate decision is a 25 - basis - point rate cut, with a small probability of a 50 - basis - point cut. After the lower - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the release of US inflation data in August provides another reason for the Fed to cut rates: inflation has not significantly increased due to tariffs. The intensifying personnel turmoil among Fed governors has also boosted market expectations for a rate cut [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Domestically, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity should be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is generally stable, which supports the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that the subsequent use of special bonds may be more for debt resolution and less for physical work such as infrastructure. Considering the uncertain implementation rhythm of 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments, the demand impulse for the physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. For investors interested in financial assets, it is recommended to monitor the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [7]. - **Asset Views**: It is recommended to pay more attention to liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets. Specifically, investors should focus on CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Additionally, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be considered [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the decline of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the expanding risk of the Fed's independence are driving prices up. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has ended, and there is no upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: Steel mills' profits are shrinking, and the supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, hot - metal production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather factors, and changes in port ore inventory [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot - metal production has returned to a high level, and port inventory has slightly increased. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather factors, and changes in port ore inventory and policy dynamics [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: Supply has increased significantly, and the second round of price cuts has begun. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has basically recovered, and the spot market sentiment is cautious. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the upward driving force is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply has slightly increased, and expectations are still fluctuating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Middle - stream concentrated pick - up has led to continuous inventory reduction. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and copper prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and unexpected slowdown in domestic demand recovery [8]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected electrolytic - aluminum resumption, and extreme market trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro risks, supply disturbances, and unexpected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery in zinc - ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead has decreased, and lead prices are oscillating upward. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply shortages [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel market has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including changes in the expectation of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, suppressing the upward space of silicon prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Valuation repair has been realized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the progress of cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Option positions are concentrated at 3500, and there is intense competition between long and short positions. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including sanctions and supply disturbances [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Russian fuel - oil exports have reached a new high, and the fuel - oil market is weak. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including geopolitical situations and crude - oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates widely following crude - oil prices. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the key point being crude - oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: The contradiction between near - term and far - term contracts is still large, and methanol is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - energy factors and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Urea has returned to a fundamental - driven decline and is waiting for new positive factors. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the actual implementation of exports and market - sentiment changes under long - term pressure [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Expectations are leading, and the market is pessimistic about future production - capacity pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including coal and oil price fluctuations, port - inventory rhythms, and device implementation [10]. - **PX**: Fundamental driving forces are limited, and prices mainly follow costs under the temporary support of PXN. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including significant crude - oil fluctuations, macro - level changes, and unexpected weakness in the peak - demand season [10]. - **PTA**: The willingness to hold goods is low, and spot liquidity is abundant, suppressing the basis. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including significant crude - oil fluctuations, macro - level changes, and unexpected weakness in the peak season [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Raw - material support is average, and processing fees have improved under factory price - holding. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The off - season of demand is deepening, with significant constraints. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and terminal demand [10]. - **Propylene**: The reduction in the volume of propane and PL commodities has boosted prices, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic macro - economic conditions [10]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic and international macro - economic conditions [10]. - **Plastic**: Peak - season demand provides slight support, and plastic is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic and international macro - economic conditions [10]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices, macro - economic policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: Weak reality and strong expectations coexist, and PVC is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked and declined, and caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including market sentiment, production starts, and demand [10]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products - **Oils**: The good - condition rate of US soybeans has continued to decline, and oils continued to oscillate strongly yesterday. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices are dragging down the futures market, and futures prices are testing the lower - limit support. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - economic factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The number of incoming vehicles is at a high level, and both futures and spot prices are oscillating weakly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected demand, macro - economic factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Spot - market pressure continues, and the futures market is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: It is running strongly and has returned above 16,000. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - economic changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It continues to oscillate. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being significant crude - oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: There is strong support at the bottom, and cotton prices have rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are oscillating slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being imports [10]. - **Pulp**: Market sentiment is stable, and pulp has entered a range - bound market. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - based quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Market sentiment has rebounded, and double - glued paper is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production starts [10]. - **Logs**: Processing demand has slightly recovered, and there is an expectation of spot - price increases. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including shipment volume and delivery volume [10].

Report Overview - Report Title: 【中信期货航运】美西、欧洲计划运力高位回落,至美国发运量维持低位 -- 数据报告20250916 - Research Team: Industrial and Cyclical Group - Research Analysts: An Jierui, Wu Xilu 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The planned shipping capacities for the US West Coast and Europe are declining from their peak levels, while the shipping volume to the United States remains low [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Shipping Capacity - In the 39th week (from September 21st to September 28th), the planned shipping capacity on the US West Coast route dropped to 340,000 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.4%. The shipping capacity on the US East Coast route was 217,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 31% [4] - The shipping capacity on the China - Southeast Asia route is operating at a high level, with a year - on - year positive growth of 37% but a narrowing increase, and a month - on - month decline of 12.5% with an expanding decline [4] - In the 39th week, the shipping capacity on the China - North Europe route decreased month - on - month, dropping to 325,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%. The shipping capacity on the Mediterranean route increased by 46.7% year - on - year and decreased by 8% month - on - month [4] Shipping Volume of Containerized Cargo to the United States - As of September 15th, the shipping volume of containerized cargo from China to the United States reached 444,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8%, and the number of ships was 54, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8% [4] - The shipping volume of containerized cargo from Vietnam to the United States rebounded last week, reaching 130,000 TEU, a week - on - week increase of 44% [4] Port Arrival Volume in the United States - In the 37th week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the United States was 531,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 189,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 24.6%, and that from Vietnam was 68,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9% [5] - This week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the United States was 486,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8.4%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 170,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 10.5%, and that from Vietnam was 61,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 9.9% [5] Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of September 14th, the container throughput of domestic ports increased by 0.1% week - on - week and 13.5% year - on - year, reaching 6652,000 TEU [5] Vizion Booking Data - From August 18th to August 25th, the total bookings in the United States were 336,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 5.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The bookings from China to the United States were 122,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30% [5] - In the first three weeks of August, the average weekly total booking volume in the United States was 355,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 7.1% compared to July. The average weekly booking volume of imports from China to the United States was 124,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6% compared to July [5]

Group 1: Report Core Views - Domestic styrene profit is low and the domestic styrene operating rate decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the domestic styrene operating rate was 74.98%, a decrease of 4.76 pct compared to the previous period and an increase of 5.6 pct year - on - year. The weekly output was 354,000 tons, a decrease of 22,500 tons from the previous period [2]. - Overseas, there are new styrene device overhauls in Malaysia and Belgium. As of September 15, 2025, the overseas styrene operating rate was 81.8%, a decrease of 1.9 pct compared to the previous period and a decrease of 0.1 pct year - on - year, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years [2]. - The global styrene operating rate is at a neutral level. As of September 15, 2025, the global styrene operating rate was 78.5%, a decrease of 3.3 pct compared to the previous period and an increase of 2.33 pct year - on - year [2]. Group 2: Specific Data Summaries - Domestic styrene: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate was 74.98%, weekly output was 354,000 tons. As of September 15, the non - integrated profit was - 307 yuan/ton [2]. - Overseas styrene: As of September 15, 2025, the operating rate was 81.8%. The US INEOS 500,000 - ton styrene overhaul plan was postponed to January 2026, a 240,000 - ton styrene device in Malaysia started a 20 - day overhaul at the end of August, and a 440,000 - ton styrene device in Belgium started a one - month overhaul in mid - September [2]. - Global styrene: As of September 15, 2025, the operating rate was 78.5% [2].

Report Title - "【中信期货航运】美西、欧洲计划运力高位回落,至美国发运量维持低位 -- 数据报告20250916" [1] Report Analysts - An Jierui,从业资格号:F03100682,投资咨询号: Z0021085 [1] - Wu Xilu,从业资格号:F03117373,投资咨询号:Z0022651 [1] Core Views - High - frequency shipping capacity shows mixed trends, with the planned capacity of the US West route rebounding month - on - month and the North European capacity rising slightly. The shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from China to the US has dropped again at a low level, and the arrival volume at US ports has declined in the past two weeks. Domestic port throughput fluctuates but remains higher than the same period last year. US booking data also shows a downward trend [4][5] Summary by Content High - frequency Shipping Capacity - In the 39th week (September 21 - 28 planned capacity), the capacity of the US West route dropped to 340,000 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.4%. The capacity of the US East route was 217,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 31%. The capacity of the China - Southeast Asia route was operating at a high level, with a year - on - year positive growth of 37% but a narrowing increase, and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5% with an expanding decline. The capacity of the China - North Europe route in the 39th week decreased month - on - month, dropping to 325,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%. The capacity of the Mediterranean route increased by 46.7% year - on - year and decreased by 8% month - on - month [4] Shipping Volume of Container Ships Carrying Goods to the US - As of September 15, the shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from China to the US reached 444,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8%, and the number was 54, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8%. The shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from Vietnam to the US rebounded last week, reaching 130,000 TEU, a week - on - week increase of 44% [4] Arrival Volume at US Ports - In the 37th week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods at US ports was 531,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 189,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 24.6%, and the arrival volume from Vietnam was 68,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9%. This week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods at US ports was 486,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8.4%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 170,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 10.5%, and the arrival volume from Vietnam was 61,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 9.9% [5] Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of September 14, the container throughput of domestic ports increased by 0.1% week - on - week and 13.5% year - on - year, reaching 665.2 million TEU [5] Vizion Booking Data - From August 18 - 25, the total US bookings were 336,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 5.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. From August 18 - 25, the US bookings from China were 122,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. In the first three weeks of August, the average weekly total US bookings were 355,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 7.1% compared to July. The average weekly US bookings from China were 124,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6% compared to July [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is expected to have a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern, with short - term attention on selling opportunities on rallies and potential reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][9]. - The protein meal market is expected to continue range - bound trading, with long positions held at 2900 - 2910 and opportunities to add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises are suggested to buy basis contracts or price at low levels [7]. - The hog market is expected to have low - level oscillations in the short term, and the supply pressure may gradually weaken in 2026 if the de - capacity policy is effectively implemented [9]. - The natural rubber market is expected to be oscillating and bullish in the short term, while the synthetic rubber market is expected to continue its oscillating trend [11][13]. - The cotton market is expected to have short - term range - bound trading, with support at 13800 yuan/ton and resistance at 14300 yuan/ton [14]. - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the long term and may stop falling and rebound in the short term, with a trading range of 5500 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market is expected to have an oscillating trend, with an expected trading range of 4950 - 5300 [17]. - The offset paper market is recommended for range - bound operations between 4000 - 4500 [18]. - The log market is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September, with a possible range of 780 - 840 [20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1油脂 - Despite the bearish USDA September supply - demand report, the domestic oils and fats oscillated strongly on the previous day. The market is focused on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, and the crude oil price was strong due to regional tensions. - The US soybean yield may be further revised down, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in September, and the demand for palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but still high year - on - year. - In the short term, pay attention to the sustainability of the upward trend, and in the medium term, the probability of price increases is high [5]. 3.1.2蛋白粕 - Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the US - China talks were held in Spain. The US soybean yield was slightly revised down, and the end - inventory consumption ratio increased slightly. The probability of La Nina from September to November is 55%. The Brazilian soybean planting progress should be monitored. - Domestically, the double - meal prices fell due to the neutral - bearish supply - demand report and the US - China talks. In the short term, the oil mills' soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, and the feed enterprises' physical inventory is slightly increasing. In the long term, there is no supply gap before December, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. 3.1.3玉米及淀粉 - The domestic corn prices showed mixed trends. The supply side is affected by the active selling of old - crop grains and the expected new - crop harvest pressure. The demand side sees some support from the replenishment of small - scale feed enterprises in the south. - In the short term, there are opportunities to sell on rallies and potential reverse arbitrage opportunities. In the long term, the market is not pessimistic [1][9]. 3.1.4生猪 - In the short term, the supply of hogs is abundant, and the price is under pressure. In the medium term, the pig supply is expected to increase. In the long term, if the de - capacity policy is effective, the supply pressure will gradually weaken in 2026 [9]. 3.1.5天然橡胶 - After a sharp decline last week, the rubber price rebounded. The supply side needs to monitor the production increase and inventory reduction. The demand side needs to observe the downstream procurement intention. - In the short term, the price is expected to be oscillating and bullish [11]. 3.1.6合成橡胶 - The BR futures rebounded slightly after stabilizing. It mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tight supply of butadiene. - In the short term, the price may be oscillating and bullish [13]. 3.1.7棉花 - Internationally, the global cotton production may not decline significantly. Domestically, the commercial inventory is low, the demand is improving, and the new - cotton opening price is expected to be higher than last year. - In the short term, the price is expected to be range - bound [14]. 3.1.8白糖 - In the long term, the global sugar market supply is expected to be loose, and the price is under downward pressure. In the short term, the fundamental supply is also relatively loose, but the price may stop falling and rebound [16]. 3.1.9纸浆 - After reaching a new low, the pulp futures rebounded. The market sentiment is stable, and the demand is average. The supply side has some new increments, and the demand side is in the seasonal peak season but with a weak upward - transmission effect. - The price is expected to oscillate in the low - level range [17]. 3.1.10双胶纸 - The double - offset paper futures have been oscillating around the listing price of 4200 yuan/ton. The price is at a neutral level, and there is a lack of clear upward or downward drivers. - It is recommended for range - bound operations between 4000 - 4500 [18]. 3.1.11原木 - The log market has been affected by the weak reality and the expectation of the peak season. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase in September. - The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [20]. 3.2品种数据监测 The report only lists various agricultural product categories such as "油脂油料", "蛋白粕", "玉米、淀粉", etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.3评级标准 - The rating standards include "偏强" (expected increase > 2 standard deviations), "震荡偏强" (expected increase of 1 - 2 standard deviations), "震荡" (expected increase/decrease within ±1 standard deviation), "震荡偏弱" (expected decrease of 1 - 2 standard deviations), and "偏弱" (expected decrease > 2 standard deviations). - The time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks, and the standard deviation is calculated as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [177].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating bullishly" [6]. Core View of the Report - With the deepening of the traditional peak season, steel demand is expected to improve, driving the restocking demand from the bottom - up of the industrial chain. Coupled with the boost from overseas macro and domestic market sentiment, there is still room for the sector to oscillate upward before the holiday [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation - The overall black building materials sector oscillated strongly during the day session and night session yesterday due to the approaching Fed rate cut and the introduction of domestic industry growth - stabilizing plans, which led to a resurgence of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The restocking logic before the National Day strengthened, benefiting furnace materials and plate products with strong demand, while building materials were still dragged down by poor demand [1][2]. 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Brazilian port maintenance impact weakened, and shipping volume returned to normal. Demand recovered to a high level, but the low inventory in factories and the need to verify the peak - season demand for rebar limited its upside. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: Its fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It follows the movement of finished products and is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: With the approaching National Day, steel mills will start pre - holiday stockpiling. The cost support is strong due to the resurgence of the anti - involution sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the coal mines resume production, they are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. The mid - and downstream pre - holiday restocking has started in advance, and with the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The stable prices of semi - coke and electricity costs support the price in the short term. However, the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [3]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline if it returns to fundamental trading [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [3]. 6. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradiction of rebar is more prominent than that of hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas shipping has recovered, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The demand is at a high level, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand has also increased slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented. The supply is still relatively loose, but the cost support is strong. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has started restocking. With the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11][12]. - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction, and the price is expected to decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream restocking has driven the upstream destocking. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost and peak - season expectations support the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [15][16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost supports the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [17]. 7. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend on September 15, 2025 [99]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index rose by 0.87% on September 15, 2025, and the increase in the past 5 days was 1.17%, while the decrease in the past month was 0.62%, and the decrease from the beginning of the year was 3.87% [100].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver for gold prices. US inflation and fundamental data are in line with this trend, causing gold prices to fluctuate at high levels. In the long - term, gold will still benefit from the contraction of the US dollar's credit [1][3]. - Although the continuous deterioration of non - farm data has temporarily suppressed the elasticity of silver prices, as the performance of US assets diverges and the market's trading of a soft landing continues to strengthen, silver prices are expected to challenge historical highs in the combination of a soft landing and interest rate cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Logic - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver. The 2 - year US Treasury bond has priced in the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the quarterly FOMC meeting on the subsequent path. The central bank's gold - buying behavior continues, and geopolitical conflicts have resurfaced, which is favorable for gold allocation. In the long - term, gold benefits from the contraction of the US dollar's credit [3]. - **Silver**: The continuous deterioration of non - farm data has temporarily suppressed silver's elasticity. However, as the US recession expectation weakens, the obstacle to silver's elasticity is removed. Silver prices are expected to challenge historical highs in the combination of a soft landing and interest rate cuts [3]. 3.2 Outlook Next week, focus on the FOMC meeting guidance and US retail data. The weekly range for spot London gold is [3500, 3800], and for spot London silver is [39, 45] [3]. 3.3 Key Information - China and the US delegations are holding talks in Madrid to resolve trade tensions, and the US and China are close to reaching an agreement on TikTok [2]. - A drone invaded Romanian airspace during a Russian attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, forcing Romania to scramble fighter jets [2]. - The Fed will hold a policy meeting on September 16 - 17. There are uncertainties regarding the attendance list due to a lawsuit to dismiss a Fed governor and a pending Senate approval for a new appointment [2]. 3.4 Index Information - On September 15, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index is not detailed. The commodity index is 2239.53, up 0.50%; the commodity 20 index is 2507.34, up 0.37%; the industrial products index is 2254.68, up 0.90% [46]. - The precious metals index on September 15, 2025, has a daily decline of 0.27%, a 5 - day increase of 0.29%, a 1 - month increase of 7.34%, and a year - to - date increase of 31.79% [48].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report Both domestic and overseas styrene开工 have declined, with low domestic styrene profits and additional overseas device maintenance [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Domestic Situation**: As of September 11, 2025, the domestic styrene开工 rate was 74.98%, a -4.76 pct week - on - week decrease and a +5.6 pct year - on - year increase. Weekly production was 35.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons from the previous period. As of September 15, domestic non - integrated styrene profit was - 307 yuan/ton, at a low level [2]. - **Overseas Situation**: As of September 15, 2025, overseas styrene开工 was 81.8%, a -1.9 pct week - on - week decrease and a -0.1 pct year - on - year decrease, at a relatively low level in the past five years. There were new device maintenance in Malaysia and Belgium [2]. - **Global Situation**: As of September 15, 2025, global styrene开工 was 78.5%, a -3.3 pct week - on - week decrease and a +2.33 pct year - on - year increase, at a neutral level [2].