1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of crude oil continues to be strong due to a decrease in Russian crude oil exports and rising VLCC freight rates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The chemical industry shows a demand for stopping the decline and stabilizing under the situation of crude oil fluctuations [2][3]. - The chemical products in the industry have different trends. Some products may stop falling and stabilize, while others continue to be under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. API data shows an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, but the reduction in refined oil inventories and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 2026, but the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation is difficult to change, so the price fluctuates [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: Affected by the crude oil market, most chemical products are in a state of shock. Some products are facing cost and supply - demand pressures, while others have certain profit supports [3][4]. 3.2 Variety Analysis - **Asphalt**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price lacks support. The high - valued premium is starting to decline, and it is expected that the absolute price is over - valued and the monthly spread may decline [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil weakens, the fuel oil price is weak. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. Facing factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, it has a low valuation and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [9][10]. - **PX**: The supply has not decreased, and there is support for profits under the situation of strong supply and demand. It is expected to return to the cost and fundamental pricing logic in the short - term and maintain range consolidation [11]. - **PTA**: The market is waiting and watching, and there is a bottom - support for short - term profits. It is expected that the price will fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is running weakly. The pure benzene - naphtha price spread is at a low level in recent years, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Although there are some supply disturbances, the upward drive is still insufficient [11][12]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of inventory over - filling, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost - side has some disturbances, but it does not reverse the situation, and the follow - up rhythm depends on crude oil [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Under the resonance of cost and fundamentals, it is in a downward trend, and the medium - term supply surplus problem is difficult to solve. The price is under pressure in the short - term [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream factories are digesting previous stockpiles, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed to a certain extent. The price follows the cost and fluctuates weakly [19][20]. - **Bottle Chip**: Affected by cost, the supply - demand drive is limited. The price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee below is enhanced [21]. - **Methanol**: After continuous decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is still value in going long at a low level [23][26]. - **Urea**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the information of the Nanjing Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference [24]. - **Plastic**: The OPEC+ production increase is cautious. Considering the fundamentals and profit situation, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [27][28]. - **PP**: There is still some support on the cost side. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the change and sustainability of maintenance [28][29]. - **PL**: The improvement in downstream transactions is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [29]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cost of integrated production in the northwest may support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the cost is moving up. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the trading strategy is to go short on rallies [31]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring**: The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [33][34][35]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists various chemicals such as methanol, urea, etc., specific content is not fully presented in the provided text. - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline. The energy index also shows a downward trend, with a daily decline of 1.07%, a 5 - day decline of 0.25%, a 1 - month decline of 5.01%, and a decline of 5.08% since the beginning of the year [274][276].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with most agricultural product prices showing downward or volatile trends [1]. - The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber are under pressure, while the prices of some products such as corn and cotton are in a range - bound state [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the prices rose first and then fell, and nearly half of the Brazilian soybeans have been planted. - **Logic**: Optimistic expectations for US soybean exports led to an increase in US soybeans and soybean oil on Monday. Domestically, the prices of oils and fats rose first and then fell yesterday, with soybean oil relatively strong. The US government shutdown, doubts about the Fed's interest - rate cut, and OPEC +'s decision to suspend production increase have affected the market. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the probability of a decrease in US soybean yield is high. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly, with a planting progress of 47.1% as of November 1st. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is at a relatively high level, and the speed of domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is expected to be slow. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, while Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil in China is expected to increase [8]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a weak shock state, while soybean oil will be in a shock state [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The crushing profit continues to recover, and the M1 - 5 reverse spread should be held. - **Logic**: CBOT soybeans are overbought, and soybean meal is in a high - level shock state, while the upward trend of rapeseed meal has slowed down. The US government's statement on China's soybean - purchasing plan has boosted the export expectation of US soybeans. The export volume of old - crop Brazilian soybeans in October decreased. In November, Brazilian soybeans enter the critical growth period, and the impact of La Nina needs to be monitored. Domestically, the short - term crushing profit of imported soybeans has recovered, and the import expectation is high. In the medium term, the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US, South American weather, and the strength of the consumption peak season in the fourth quarter will determine the upward height of soybean meal. In the long term, there is no supply gap for soybeans in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, while rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [9]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will be in a shock state. The soybean meal 1 - 5 reverse spread should be held, and put options should be held [9]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, and downstream rigid demand provides support. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is generally stable, with slight fluctuations in some areas. In the Northeast, farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, the circulation of grain sources has slowed down, and the supply pressure has been relieved. At the same time, the increase in external flow, transportation bottlenecks, and regional shortages in the sales area have supported the price. However, considering the expected high yield in the Northeast and the fact that the grain in some areas has not been fully marketed, the spot price still faces pressure [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Corn will be in a shock state, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [10]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply for slaughter is abundant, and the price is weak. - **Logic**: In the short term, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in pig prices has suppressed the sentiment of secondary fattening. The large - scale pig farms have a fast slaughter rhythm. In the medium term, the national sow inventory was still at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of newborn piglets increased continuously from January to September. It is expected that the slaughter volume of pigs will continue to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the sow inventory has started to decline, and the reduction of sows is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [10][11]. - **Outlook**: The price of pigs will be in a weak shock state. In the near - term, the price is weak, while in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread strategy [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The market sentiment is bearish, and the price continues to decline. - **Logic**: The bearish sentiment in the financial market has led to a continuous decline in the natural rubber price. The cancellation of RU warehouse receipts and the slow progress of new rubber registration have made the valuation of RU lower than that of NR. In November, the import pressure may be relatively large, which will put pressure on NR. The short - term RU - NR spread may have a corrective market. The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by the macro - environment. If there is no new macro - driving force, the rubber price may continue to adjust downward. However, due to the approaching domestic rubber - cutting season and the potential for speculation on RU warehouse receipts, the downward space is limited [3][12][13]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price will maintain a high - elasticity shock at the bottom. It is difficult to have a unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to widening the RU - NR spread in the short term [3][13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The price of raw materials continues to decline, and the price hits a new low. - **Logic**: The continuous decline in the price of butadiene and the weak sentiment in the commodity market have led to a new low in the synthetic rubber price. The main reason is the rapid decline in the price of butadiene, which has weakened the bottom support of the market. The supply of butadiene is expected to be in excess in the next two months before the end of the year, and the price may continue to decline [14]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material prices are under great pressure. Before the obvious supply - demand contradiction of butadiene is resolved, short - selling on rallies is recommended [14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The short - term upward momentum of cotton prices has weakened, and a slight correction may occur. - **Logic**: The new - season cotton production in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the increase in the purchase price in southern Xinjiang since October has supported the cotton price. However, most of the positive factors have been priced in. The improvement in Sino - US trade relations has limited short - term impact on actual trade. Currently, it is the peak season for new cotton listing, and the increase in inventory and hedging activities will limit the upward space of cotton prices. However, the cost provides certain support [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract will be in a range - bound state. In the long term, the cotton price may rise due to the expected reduction of inventory in the 2025/2026 cotton year [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The general direction is to maintain a bearish operation. - **Logic**: In the international market, the peak season of Brazilian sugar production has ended, and the export volume in October has decreased. However, as the Northern Hemisphere enters the peak crushing season, the supply of new sugar will increase, and the downward pressure on international sugar prices remains. The market still expects an increase in Brazilian sugar production, and Thailand and India are also expected to have an increase in production in the new season. In the domestic market, the demand from August to September was average, and the industrial inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan increased year - on - year. Although the tightening of import control and the expectation of limited future imports have supported the domestic sugar price, as the southern sugar - producing areas enter the peak crushing season, the supply will increase, and the domestic sugar price also faces downward pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, the sugar price will be in a weak shock state. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The strong upward trend has paused, and the market has returned to a quiet state. - **Logic**: The recent upward trend of pulp has paused, and the spot trading has become quiet again. The previous increase was due to the expected increase in the price of downstream paper and the improvement in the tender demand for cultural paper. In the medium term, the previous negative factors in the pulp market have not been fully digested, and the positive factors in downstream demand can only bring short - term support. Fundamentally, the demand for softwood pulp is low, and there is export pressure from overseas to China. The hardwood pulp is in a state of over - supply. The futures price is approaching the spot price, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium. The large number of expiring warehouse receipts also puts pressure on the futures price. However, there are also some positive factors, such as the increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the cost of hardwood imports, and the expected improvement in the demand for cultural paper in November and December [18]. - **Outlook**: The pulp price will be in a shock state. The market is dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand, and the change in waste pulp may cause fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and watch [18]. 3.1.10 Double - Glued Paper - **View**: Double - glued paper is in a shock state. - **Logic**: The main contract of double - glued paper closed at 4266 yuan/ton yesterday, with a slight increase. The supply of paper is still in a serious over - supply situation, and the demand from the publishing tender has started, but the social orders have not improved significantly, and the downstream consumption is still weak. Some paper mills are facing great production and sales pressure. Although some paper mills have announced a price increase plan in early November, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and most prices are stable at the end of the month. In the future, in November, paper mills may increase their quotes as planned, and the price of double - glued paper is expected to stabilize [19]. - **Outlook**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the unilateral strategy. Attention should be paid to the impact of new driving factors on market sentiment [20]. 3.1.11 Logs - **View**: Logs maintain a bottom - shock state. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of logs have continued to weaken this week, and the spot and futures prices have continued to decline. The recent concentrated arrival of logs at ports and the decline in the sales of laminated wood have put pressure on the spot price. The increase in the US dollar - based price two weeks ago has made it difficult for foreign quotes to be accepted. As New Zealand enters summer, the pressure of blue - stained logs on arrival will increase. After the peak season in the fourth quarter, logs may accumulate inventory again. However, the current valuation of logs is not high, and the inventory in the Jiangsu market is relatively low, so the downward space is limited [22]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs are weak, and the spot price may decline. The market will be in a bottom - shock state in the near term [22]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring No specific data content provided for detailed summary. 3.3 Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: On November 4, 2025, the commodity index was 2229.67, down 0.92%; the commodity 20 index was 2521.83, down 0.98%; the industrial product index was 2213.57, down 1.07% [177]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On November 4, 2025, the agricultural product index was 923.28, down 0.41% today, down 0.57% in the past 5 days, down 1.97% in the past month, and down 3.29% since the beginning of the year [179].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions continue to support base metal prices, but macro - support has weakened. Base metals may rise first and then fall. One can cautiously focus on the opportunity for aluminum ingot price to catch up, and also consider low - buying opportunities for copper after price decline. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - The copper price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term; the alumina price is under pressure and oscillating; the aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and may see its price center rise in the medium term; the aluminum alloy price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and oscillating in the medium term; the zinc price is expected to be oscillating; the lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish; the nickel price is expected to be oscillating; the stainless - steel price is expected to be range - bound; the tin price is expected to be volatile and bullish [9][13][14][16][18][21][23][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Information Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October. The SMM China electrolytic copper production in September decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month, a 4.31% decline. The spot copper price showed a certain change on November 4, and the copper inventory increased. The China - US presidents met in late October, agreeing to strengthen cooperation [8]. - **Main Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks led to a short - term adjustment in copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tightening, and the production of electrolytic copper may decline. The high price restricts demand, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [9]. - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term [9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Information Analysis**: On November 4, the alumina spot price in the north remained flat, while the national weighted index declined slightly. The alumina warehouse receipts increased [9]. - **Main Logic**: The high - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the supply contraction is not obvious. The domestic market is in a strong inventory - accumulation trend. The price is under pressure, but more funds are starting to pay attention to it [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to be under pressure and oscillating [9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Information Analysis**: On November 4, the SMM AOO aluminum price remained unchanged. The aluminum rod and electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories showed certain changes. A new project will be put into production, and some regions have implemented environmental protection policies. Some aluminum has been transported to the US, and a large proportion of LME aluminum warehouse receipts are held [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - environment is positive. The domestic supply is at a high level with some environmental protection restrictions, and the overseas supply has disruptions. The demand is stable, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory trends [13]. - **Outlook**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and may see its price center rise in the medium term [13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Information Analysis**: On November 4, the price of ADC12 decreased. The estimated retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in October decreased slightly [14]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The supply side has some production - reduction risks, and the demand is marginally improving. Attention should be paid to the purchase - tax policy [14]. - **Outlook**: The aluminum alloy price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and oscillating in the medium term [14]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Information Analysis**: The spot zinc price showed a certain discount on November 4. The zinc inventory increased slightly. A mine in Australia had production problems [15]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - environment is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is loose, and the refinery's profit is good. The demand is in the off - season. The zinc price may be in high - level oscillation in the short term and may decline in the long term [16]. - **Outlook**: The zinc price is expected to be oscillating [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Information Analysis**: On November 4, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the lead price increased slightly. The lead inventory increased slightly, and some enterprises had production changes [17]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium increased slightly, the supply side has a complex situation, and the demand side is in the peak season. The lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish [18]. - **Outlook**: The lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish [18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Information Analysis**: On November 4, the LME nickel inventory remained unchanged, and the domestic nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The global visible inventory is increasing. Some companies have project progress [19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be oscillating [21]. - **Outlook**: The nickel price is expected to be oscillating [21]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price showed a certain premium. The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [22]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel iron and chromium have declined, weakening cost support. The production has increased, but demand acceptance is limited. The inventory may accumulate [22]. - **Outlook**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be range - bound [23]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Information Analysis**: On November 4, the LME and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased, and the Shanghai tin position decreased. The spot tin price remained unchanged [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is restricted, but the inventory is starting to accumulate, which limits the price increase. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. 3.2行情监测 No specific content for analysis in the provided text. 3.3 Market Indexes - On November 4, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2229.67, down 0.92%; the commodity 20 index was 2521.83, down 0.98%; the industrial products index was 2213.57, down 1.07%. The non - ferrous metals index on November 4, 2025, had a daily decline of 1.11%, a 5 - day decline of 1.91%, a 1 - month increase of 2.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.86% [149][151].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, supply expectations are fluctuating and driving the market. Lithium carbonate is leading the decline in new energy metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center. The production capacity of lithium ore is still rising, and the high - growth supply of lithium carbonate will limit the upside of lithium prices [1]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon is fluctuating, causing the silicon price to decline. The sentiment for polysilicon has cooled, and it is oscillating at a high level. The lithium carbonate price has fallen due to sentiment, but the supply - demand situation remains strong [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price has declined. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [5]. - **Information Analysis**: - The spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China are 9450 yuan/ton and 9700 yuan/ton respectively, with minor fluctuations [5]. - The latest domestic inventory is 447,700 tons, a 0.6% increase month - on - month. Market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and factory inventory is 264,700 tons, a 1.0% increase month - on - month [5]. - As of October 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 452,000 tons, a 7.5% increase month - on - month and a 3.8% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to October was 3.469 million tons, a 16.7% decrease year - on - year [5]. - In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70,233 tons, an 8.4% decrease month - on - month and a 7.7% increase year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to September 2025 was 561,000 tons, a 2.3% increase year - on - year [5]. - The new photovoltaic installation in September was 9.66GW, a 53.76% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative new photovoltaic installation from January to September reached 240.27GW, a 49.35% increase year - on - year [5]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in the southwest is expected to decrease as the dry season approaches, while the supply in the northwest is stable with potential for further production resumption. The overall supply of domestic industrial silicon remains relatively loose. The demand from the polysilicon industry in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in November, the organic silicon DMC market is weak and stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The continuous reduction of industrial silicon warehouse receipts provides some support to the market [5]. - **Outlook**: Although the reduction in southwest production during the dry season and the rapid reduction of short - term warehouse receipts provide some support, there is still supply pressure in November. The silicon price is expected to oscillate [5]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled, and polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [6]. - **Information Analysis**: - The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9590 lots, unchanged from the previous value [6]. - In September, the export volume of polysilicon was about 2150 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export from January to September 2025 was 18,667 tons, a 30% year - on - year decrease. The import volume in September was about 1292 tons, a 49.46% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative import from January to September was 14,677 tons, a 53.26% year - on - year decrease [6]. - The new domestic photovoltaic installation from January to September 2025 was 240.27GW, a 49.35% increase year - on - year [6]. - Some polysilicon production bases in the southwest are gradually reducing raw material input and are expected to fully stop production from late October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [7]. - **Main Logic**: The market risk appetite has cooled. The production of polysilicon has rebounded in August - September and is expected to remain high in October, but will contract in November with the arrival of the dry season. The demand for polysilicon in the fourth quarter may continue to weaken. Although the current supply - demand situation is under pressure, it is expected to improve during the dry season, and there are still policy expectations [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant positive impact on the polysilicon price, but the inventory pressure is still large. The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate widely [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The lithium carbonate price has fallen due to sentiment, but the supply - demand situation remains strong. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [8][9]. - **Information Analysis**: - On November 4, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 4.52% to 78,560 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 82,510 lots to 827,400 lots [8]. - On November 4, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 80,900 yuan/ton, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 78,700 yuan/ton, and the average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) decreased by 3 US dollars/ton to 941 US dollars/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 800 lots to 26,490 lots [9]. - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in October were 1.61 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale from January to October is estimated to be 12.054 million, a 30% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is expected to continue to decrease in November. However, the supply expectations are fluctuating, causing significant price fluctuations. The production is expected to remain strong from November to December, with additional import expectations in November. The apparent demand is good, but attention should be paid to the production schedule in December and the potential weakening of demand in the first quarter of next year. The speculative demand may push up the price when it falls [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [9][10]. 4. Market Indexes - **Comprehensive Index (November 4, 2025)**: The commodity index is 2229.67, a 0.92% decrease; the commodity 20 index is 2521.83, a 0.98% decrease; the industrial product index is 2213.57, a 1.07% decrease [50]. - **New Energy Commodity Index (November 4, 2025)**: The index value is 407.95, with a daily decrease of 3.96%, a 5 - day decrease of 3.84%, a monthly increase of 2.51%, and a year - to - date decrease of 1.08% [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in lithium carbonate prices today is mainly due to sentiment, with long - position holders actively reducing their positions. Although the report previously mentioned that November might be a price inflection point, the strong fundamentals have not changed. After the price drop, there are buyers, making it difficult to form a trend - like downward movement. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Upstream enterprises can reduce the hedging ratio, downstream enterprises can appropriately stock up or sell put options, and short - chasing is not recommended [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell by more than 5% during the session. Since October 31, lithium prices have significantly corrected. The recent sharp decline is mainly due to market sentiment suppression and the correction of the expected supply elasticity. In October, SMM's lithium carbonate production in China was 92,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%, exceeding the previous expectation of 90,000 tons. The market also advanced the expectation of the resumption of production of small - scale lithium mines [3]. Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: SMM's monthly production continued to increase significantly. In October, the production increased by 6.7% month - on - month to 92,300 tons. It is expected to remain strong from November to December, and there is an additional import expectation in November. The resumption of production of small - scale lithium mines has been repeatedly expected, causing large market sentiment fluctuations [4]. - **Demand**: The current apparent demand is good, and the performance in November is still strong. Attention should be paid to the production plan in December, and the demand may weaken in the first quarter of next year. Optimistic expectations for consumption scenarios such as power batteries and energy storage will generate speculative demand when prices fall, raising the price center [4]. - **Inventory and Basis**: Social inventory continued to decline last year, and de - stocking is expected to continue in November. Recently, the number of warehouse receipts has been decreasing, and further decline should be watched out for [4]. Summary and Strategy - The decline in lithium carbonate prices today is mainly affected by sentiment, with long - position holders actively reducing their positions. The strong fundamentals have not changed, and it is difficult to form a trend - like downward movement. Further observation of downstream procurement, upstream production, and inventory changes is needed to determine the off - season inflection point. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Upstream enterprises can reduce the hedging ratio, downstream enterprises can appropriately stock up or sell put options, and short - chasing is not recommended [5].

中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/04 Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 How to Understand China Gold Tax Policy Change 中国黄金税收政策调整解读 | 朱善颖 | Zhu Shanying | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F03138401 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0021426 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 桂晨曦 | Gui Chenxi | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z001363 | CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abs ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The EIA's October oil supply report confirmed the production and demand situation in the US in August. US crude oil production reached 1,379,400 barrels per day in August, a month - on - month increase of 86,000 barrels per day, showing continuous production resilience and higher than the EIA's previous weekly estimates. The total demand for US petroleum products decreased against the seasonal trend in August, mainly due to a significant weakening of diesel demand, while gasoline and jet fuel demand continued their seasonal strength [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content - **Crude Oil Production**: In August, US crude oil production was 1,379,400 barrels per day, with a month - on - month increase of 86,000 barrels per day, and the production was higher than the EIA's previous weekly estimates [1]. - **Petroleum Product Demand**: The total demand for US petroleum products decreased against the seasonal trend in August. Diesel demand weakened significantly, while gasoline and jet fuel demand maintained seasonal strength [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to enter an adjustment phase. The price spread between COMEX and LME copper may narrow, and it is recommended to watch the opportunity of shorting COMEX copper and going long on LME copper [5][78]. - For zinc, the pressure of squeezing on LME zinc will ease, and it is suggested to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [5][38]. - The soybean market is still dominated by Sino - US trade relations. It is expected that the external market will be stronger than the domestic market, and it is recommended to go long on CBOT soybeans and short DCE soybeans [5]. - The Fed is expected to maintain its rate - cut policy in the first half of 2026. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index is limited and does not constitute a trend reversal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of gold fluctuated, and the valuation was at a neutral level. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [12]. - **Silver**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of silver fluctuated, and the overseas spread recovered to a neutral position. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [18]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, domestic copper inventories continued to accumulate, and the import window remained in a loss state. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [22]. - **Aluminum**: The traditional peak season has passed. Domestic aluminum ingots have started to accumulate slightly, and LME aluminum inventories have also increased. The short - term internal - external ratio remains range - bound. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [28]. - **Zinc**: Currently, the window for exporting Chinese zinc ingots to Southeast Asia and delivering to warehouses has opened, and domestic social inventories have started to decline. LME plans to introduce permanent rules to limit large near - month positions. It is recommended to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [38]. - **Lead**: The increase in domestic social inventories is limited, and smelter inventories are not high. LME lead inventories have decreased, and the ratio of cancelled warrants is relatively high. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [39]. - **Nickel**: The import window is closed, and the extreme price difference situation has improved significantly. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [46]. - **Tin**: Last week, the internal - external ratio of tin decreased, the spot import window remained closed, and the import loss was 15,516 yuan/ton. The driving force for the price spread is not obvious. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [50]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of iron ore remained in a narrow range with no obvious drivers. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [56]. 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price spread fluctuated. Due to factors such as intensified freight fluctuations and uncertainty in Russian crude oil supply, it is recommended to wait and see this week [59]. 3.5 Agricultures - **Soybean**: Last week, the crushing profit was at the bottom and fluctuated. With the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the crushing profit is expected to gradually recover. It is recommended to go long on the external market and short the domestic market [65]. - **Sugar**: Last week, the import crushing profit increased. In the medium - to - long - term, the domestic market is likely to outperform ICE. This week, it is recommended to mainly wait and see [69]. - **20 -号胶**: Last week, there was little change, and the price spread was in a non - arbitrage range. With the start of the tapping season globally, supply is expected to increase, but demand shows no improvement. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [72]. 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the price spread between COMEX and LME copper widened mainly due to the strong performance of COMEX gold and silver. In the short term, the spread may narrow, and it is recommended to watch the opportunity of shorting COMEX copper and going long on LME copper [5][78]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated lower. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production, and the monthly spread fluctuates more. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [83]. - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent price spread fluctuated. The refinery operating rate in the US weakened in October, the pressure on refined oil inventories eased, and crude oil imports were low. The driving force for the price spread is limited. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [89]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: Last week, the price spread weakened. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium term, as the winter in Northwest Europe is expected to be colder than in the US and European inventory replenishment is less sufficient than in the US, the winter price spread is expected to rise [93].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The expectation of supply contraction is increasing, and polysilicon is leading the rise in new energy metals. In the short and medium term, the expectation of supply contraction is increasing, with polysilicon leading the rise. In the long term, the expectation of supply contraction in silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in the rising stage, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **View**: With the arrival of the dry season, silicon prices are oscillating [3][6]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price has small fluctuations, with the domestic inventory increasing by 0.6% month - on - month to 447,700 tons. The domestic monthly production in October was 452,000 tons, up 7.5% month - on - month and down 3.8% year - on - year. The export in September was 70,233 tons, down 8.4% month - on - month and up 7.7% year - on - year. The single - month photovoltaic new installation in September was 9.66GW, down 53.76% year - on - year [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in the southwest will decrease due to the dry season, while the northwest supply is stable with the possibility of further resumption. The demand from polysilicon in the southwest may decline slightly, the organic silicon market is weak and stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts have been decreasing, providing some support to the market [6]. - **Outlook**: The silicon price is expected to oscillate [7]. Polysilicon - **View**: The supply side is expected to cut production, and polysilicon prices are running at a high level [3][7]. - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price of N - type re -投料 is in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 53,200 yuan/ton. The export in September decreased by 53% year - on - year, and the import decreased by 49.46% year - on - year. Some southwest bases are reducing raw material input, with an expected affected capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The production in October is expected to remain high, and the supply will contract in November. The demand in the fourth quarter may weaken. The current supply - demand situation still has pressure, but it is expected to improve in the dry season, and there are still policy expectations [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Supply speculation is fermenting repeatedly, and lithium prices are oscillating widely [3][10]. - **Information Analysis**: On November 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.86% to 82,280 yuan/ton, and the total position increased by 26,819 lots to 909,910 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton [10]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply and demand are both strong. The supply has been increasing, and there are small - scale supply - side disturbances. The apparent demand is good, and the social inventory is decreasing. Upstream enterprises can participate in hedging, and downstream enterprises should purchase as needed [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Group 4: Market Index - **Comprehensive Index**: On November 3, 2025, the commodity index was 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index was 2546.82 (+0.02%), and the industrial product index was 2237.50 (+0.09%) [51]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On November 3, 2025, it was 424.76, with a daily increase of 0.78%, a 5 - day increase of 1.76%, a 1 - month increase of 6.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.00% [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is in a volatile pattern due to the co - existence of supply pressure and geopolitical risks. OPEC+ decided to continue increasing production in December 2025 but pause in Q1 2026. The high inventory and surplus supply are bearish factors, while strong refined - product crack spreads, geopolitical attacks on refineries are bullish factors [1]. - Liquid chemical products faced a significant decline on Monday. Ethylene glycol has a supply - surplus expectation, and the styrene - pure benzene market may continue to decline without major supply cuts or demand surges [2]. - Overall, crude oil will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the chemical supply side still faces significant pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Overseas crack spreads are strong, but domestic refinery profits are under pressure. OPEC+ is more cautious about increasing production, and oil prices may move from the bottom - seeking to the bottom - grinding stage. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Asphalt - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, asphalt futures prices lack support. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: As crude oil weakens, fuel oil futures prices are on the weak side. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decline in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It fluctuates with crude oil. It is supported by the rebound of gasoline and diesel crack spreads but faces negative factors such as weak shipping demand. It is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations with a relatively low valuation [9][10]. Methanol - **View**: Suppressed by the high - inventory reality in the near term, methanol fluctuates downward. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the high inventory still has a suppressing effect, but there is still value in going long at low levels considering potential Iranian disturbances [24]. Urea - **View**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The high inventory restricts the upward space of futures prices, while coal costs provide support [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The expectation of supply surplus suppresses the market, and there is no fundamental positive support. With the return of integrated refineries and concentrated imports, the price is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term under the expectation of inventory accumulation [15][16][17]. PX - **View**: Although some plants are under reform and maintenance, PX supply is not affected. With strong supply and demand, the profit supports the price. It is expected to return to the cost - and - fundamental pricing logic in the short term and maintain range - bound trading [11]. PTA - **View**: The supply - demand drive is limited, the market negotiation fades, and the basis weakens slightly. The price is affected by cost and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium term [11]. Short - Fiber - **View**: There is an expectation of weakening supply and demand, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream cost support is weak, and the downstream demand fails to keep up, so the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **View**: The cost provides no obvious guidance, the volatility narrows, and the trading atmosphere fades. The price follows the cost fluctuations, and the processing fee has stronger support during the factory production - reduction period [21]. Propylene - **View**: The propane CP price is reduced again, and PL is weaker than PP in the short term [29]. PP - **View**: With the decline in maintenance and high inventory pressure, it is expected to trade within a range. The decrease in maintenance leads to an increase in production, and the high - level inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the price [28]. Plastic - **View**: With the short - term decline in maintenance, it is expected to trade within a range. The supply pressure and weak fundamental support limit the price upside, and the profit support is also limited [27]. Styrene - **View**: There is still a concern about inventory swelling, and it fluctuates weakly. Although there are some disturbances in the cost - side pure benzene supply, it cannot reverse the situation, and the subsequent trend depends on crude oil [13]. PVC - **View**: The market sentiment cools down, and it fluctuates weakly. After the end of maintenance in early November, the production will increase, while the downstream demand is weak, and the export is also under pressure [30]. Caustic Soda - **View**: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the cost rises. The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is weak. Attention should be paid to whether low profits can drive upstream production cuts [30]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different contract periods of each variety [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of different varieties are presented, showing the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of goods in storage [33]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, which can be used to analyze the relative price relationships between different chemical products [34]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions the basis and spread monitoring of multiple chemical varieties including methanol, urea, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 5. Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index is 2546.82 (+0.02%), and the industrial product index is 2237.50 (+0.09%) [273]. - **Energy Index**: On November 3, 2025, the energy index was 1178.10, with a daily increase of 1.69%, a 5 - day increase of 0.79%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.81%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.06% [275].