铂观点：降息交易延续，等待进⼀步向上驱动 主要逻辑：本周美联储议息会议成为关注焦点，当前市场注意力已由 降息决定本身转向鲍威尔在利率决议公布后的官方声明以及发布会上 的发言，若鲍威尔释放偏鹰派信号，或导致铂价短线小幅调整。不 过，中期铂价仍将受到向上推动。进入12月，临近美国总统提名美联 储主席，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈赛特是下任美联储主席的 头号候选人，其鸽派发言引发外界对美联储独立性的进一步担忧，并 给予铂价上行驱动。长期来看，铂金供给集中度高导致扰动风险持续 存在，需求在工业和投资端的带动下将稳步扩张，同时"降息+软着 陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性，因此长期维持多头观点。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注铂低吸做多机会。同时，在铂钯比价低位情况下，建议关注多 铂空钯策略。 钯观点：现货紧张延续，价格保持坚挺 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制裁预期，市场上大量钯金流向美国，导致其他地区 钯金供应出现阶段性收紧。此外，上周普京在克里姆林宫与特朗普特 使维特 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of real - estate favorable policies is rising, and the market sentiment has improved. The steel and iron ore futures have rebounded significantly. However, the fundamentals in the off - season still have pressure, and the upward space of the steel futures is limited. The iron water has strong support due to the winter storage replenishment expectation. The coal and coke prices are still suppressed by the warehouse receipt pressure and the expectation of increased imports. The glass and soda ash are in an oversupply situation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Iron water has decreased significantly, and downstream demand has declined. Steel mills are undergoing annual maintenance. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of replenishment demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month. Port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month, with overall inventory accumulation pressure. The scrap steel fundamentals have limited contradictions. After the spot price decline, the cost - performance has recovered, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still has support. It is expected that the scrap steel price will oscillate [3]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke has weakened, and the expectation of the second - round price cut is strong. However, the coking and steel enterprises have gradually started winter storage replenishment, so there is still fundamental support. The current futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient driving force for a further significant decline. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal. The upcoming winter storage replenishment of downstream enterprises may gradually improve the fundamentals and market sentiment of coking coal. Based on the expectation that the weakening degree of the coking coal supply - demand pattern is limited, the low - level valuation of the futures is expected to gradually recover [3]. Alloys - For manganese silicon, the cost is firm, which supports the price. However, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, the cost transmission is not smooth, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level. For ferrosilicon, the high - level cost supports the bottom of the price, but the market supply - demand is weak, and the difficulty of inventory reduction still exists. The upward space of the futures price needs to be viewed with caution. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle - and downstream are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise. Recently, the decline in coal prices has led to a decline in cost expectations, resulting in weakening cost support. The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [7]. Specific Varieties Steel - The expectation of real - estate policy benefits is strengthened, and the futures has rebounded from a low level. The spot market transactions are generally average. Steel mill maintenance has increased, and steel production has declined from a high level. The construction materials demand still has some support, and the overall steel inventory has continued to decline. However, the current steel inventory level is still higher year - on - year, and the inventory reduction speed is difficult to accelerate. It is expected that the futures will oscillate [8]. Iron Ore - Affected by macro - sentiment disturbances, the price oscillates. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival at ports has decreased significantly month - on - month. The demand has declined, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The iron water output may continue to decline seasonally, and the rigid demand support is gradually weakening. The replenishment demand has not been significantly released, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected that the ore price will oscillate in the short term [8][9]. Scrap Steel - The supply - demand contradictions are limited, and the spot price oscillates. The supply has recovered significantly this week, and the demand from electric furnaces and blast furnaces has changed slightly. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory available days are significantly higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the scrap steel price will oscillate [10]. Coke - The second - round price cut has started, and the futures is under pressure. The supply side has high production enthusiasm, and some coking enterprises' operations are restricted. The demand side has a seasonal decline in iron water production, and the inventory of coking enterprises has increased slightly. The cost support has weakened, and the expectation of the second - round price cut is strong. However, there is still fundamental support, and it is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. Coking Coal - The production remains at a low level, and the inventory accumulation of coal mines has slowed down. The domestic supply continues at a low level, and the imported Mongolian coal clearance remains at a high level. The downstream procurement has increased slightly, and the inventory accumulation of upstream coal mines has slowed down. The upcoming winter storage replenishment may improve the fundamentals and market sentiment, and the low - level valuation of the futures is expected to gradually recover [12]. Glass - Affected by policy expectations, the reality is still weak. The supply may decline in the long term, but there is difficult to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the large inventory of middle - stream always suppresses the futures valuation. If there is no further cold repair, the price may have a downward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly if there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, otherwise, the price will rise [14]. Soda Ash - The warehouse receipts are still increasing, and the price oscillates at a low level. The supply is expected to increase month - on - month, the demand for heavy soda is expected to weaken, and the procurement of light soda has not changed much. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [17]. Manganese Silicon - The cost price trend is strong, but the supply - demand is loose, suppressing the futures. The cost of manganese ore is strong, the demand from steel mills is weak, and the supply is difficult to shrink significantly. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level [17][18]. Ferrosilicon - The cost reduction space is limited, and the supply - demand is weak, limiting the increase. The cost has support, the demand from steel mills and the metal magnesium industry is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly oscillate at a low level [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-11 静待消费跟上，基本金属震荡整固 有⾊观点：静待消费跟上，基本⾦属震荡整固 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资者对美联储降息预期较为乐观，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端 延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略 偏弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1- 2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需改善放缓，但预期偏紧。整体来 看，中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧继续支撑价格，但高价对消 费抑制将限制进一步走高，基本金属转为震荡整固，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低 吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰 动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应存收缩预期，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价⽌跌企稳。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MPOB report is bearish for the oil market, and the short - term trend of domestic oils may be weak with oscillations. The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as South American weather and Argentine tax policies, and is expected to be weak with oscillations. The corn market is under pressure from increased spot supply and is expected to oscillate. The pig market has sufficient inventory, and the futures price is expected to be weak with oscillations. The natural rubber market is affected by geopolitical news, and the sustainability of the price increase is questionable, with an expected oscillatory trend. The synthetic rubber market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern. The cotton market is strong in the near - term but faces resistance above. The sugar market is expected to be weak with oscillations in the medium - to - long term. The pulp market is expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend. The double - gum paper market is expected to be weak in the short - term. The log market is affected by warehouse receipts and is expected to be in a loose pattern with opportunities for reverse spreads or long positions in the far - month contracts [1][5][6][8][10][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils - **Viewpoint**: The MPOB report is bearish, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the lower technical support. - **Logic**: Due to concerns about US soybean export demand and the expected high yield of South American soybeans, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Affected by the bearish MPOB report, domestic oils oscillated and diverged, with palm oil being weak. The US dollar strengthened due to better - than - expected employment data, and crude oil prices continued to weaken. The USDA report maintained the US soybean production and demand expectations, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans continued. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The export decline of Malaysian palm oil in November exceeded expectations, and the inventory was higher than expected. However, it is currently the palm oil production - reduction season, and the probability of inventory reduction in palm oil - producing areas is high. The consumption of palm oil by Indonesian biodiesel has increased year - on - year, and the Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low. The import of Indian vegetable oil may decline seasonally. The domestic rapeseed supply is tight recently, and the rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, but the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later stage [1][5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be weak with oscillations. Affected by the bearish MPOB report, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, and the expected increase in Australian rapeseed imports, domestic oils may be weak with oscillations in the near - term [2][5]. 2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Low prices attract buyers, and attention should be paid to the support strength at the previous low. - **Logic**: The December supply - demand report slightly increased the global ending inventory, with no adjustment to US and South American soybean data, having a slightly bearish impact. China's plan to purchase 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans will be completed by the end of February next year. There is a risk of drought in Argentina, and the rainy weather in central Brazil may slow down the growth of early - season corn and soybeans. Argentina will lower the soybean export tax from 26% to 24% and the soybean by - product export tax from 24.5% to 22.5%. In the short - term, the auction of imported soybeans is imminent, and the transaction price and rate should be noted. The market is worried about changes in customs import policies, and the spot price is stable, with the basis rising passively. The soybean inventory is high, and the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal is slow. In the medium - term, China's procurement progress for imported soybeans in January is nearly 80%, mainly by the state reserve, and commercial procurement is absent due to crushing losses. The expected import of Australian rapeseed suppresses the performance of rapeseed meal. The inventory of soybean meal in downstream feed and breeding enterprises has increased year - on - year. In the long - term, whether the South American weather is normal determines the price trend and amplitude of soybean meal [6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to be weak with oscillations, and Dalian soybean meal is expected to oscillate. As the expectation of interest rate cuts in December has been fully priced in, the South American weather has not yet become a topic of speculation, and China's procurement progress is slow, US soybeans are expected to be weak with oscillations. The soybean import volume has decreased month - on - month, but the seasonal de - stocking of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills is slow. The auction of state - reserve soybeans increases the market supply pressure, and customs policies may provide some support to prices [7]. 3. Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The increase in spot supply puts pressure on prices, and the futures market oscillates. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are weak. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast and North China has increased significantly, and prices are mainly falling. Ports are affected by the decline in the night - session futures, and prices are generally adjusted downwards. Since last Friday night, due to news of regulatory reserve auctions and the futures reaching a high - level integer mark, market sentiment has turned, and the futures market has declined. Affected by the futures market sentiment, the hoarding sentiment of upstream suppliers has loosened. In the Northeast, the willingness of grass - roots traders and drying towers to sell for profit has increased, and the hoarding sentiment of farmers may cool slightly, resulting in a phased increase in market - circulated grain sources and an expected slight acceleration of the grain - selling process. However, considering the low inventory of grain - using enterprises, the demand for reserve - warehouse rotation, and the continuous demand for loading at northern ports, prices are unlikely to drop significantly. In North China, as the futures decline, enterprises' wait - and - see sentiment has increased. In the southern sales area, the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated in the next two weeks, and there is a demand for profit - taking and position - shifting in the futures market. In the short - term, a phased correction is expected, but the core indicators supporting the strong price have not changed fundamentally, and the adjustment range depends on the subsequent inventory - accumulation speed. Before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, prices are likely to oscillate [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Short - term wait - and - see [8][9]. 4. Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The inventory is sufficient, and the futures price of pigs has declined. - **Logic**: Recently, the number of epidemics has increased month - on - month, and the proportion of low - weight pig slaughter has increased month - on - month, but the impact is still limited year - on - year. In the short - term, the completion rate of large - scale pig farms' slaughter in November was slightly lower than 100%, with a small amount of inventory postponed. In December, the planned slaughter volume shows an increase according to different data sources. In the medium - term, the national sow production capacity was still at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of new - born piglets increased continuously from January to October. According to the breeding cycle, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be in excess until April 2026. In the long - term, the sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the number of sows in November decreased month - on - month. The self - breeding and self - raising of pigs has been in continuous loss, and under the dual drive of "policy + loss", sow production reduction is expected to continue. The number of new - born piglets in November decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure of commercial pigs is expected to ease after May 2026. The pig - to - meat price ratio has increased month - on - month, the average slaughter weight has continued to increase, and the downstream pickling demand has yet to be fully launched. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs will remain high in the first quarter of 2026, and the cycle is still in a downward phase. In the long - term, the national sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the number of new - born piglets in November also decreased month - on - month. Under the dual drive of "anti - involution + loss", the production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the supply pressure of pigs is expected to gradually weaken in the second half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: Weak with oscillations. In the near - term, pigs are still in the period of high - capacity realization, and with the pressure of large - pig slaughter at the end of the year, prices will operate in a low - level range. In the far - term, the Ministry of Agriculture guides enterprises to reduce production, and the continuous loss of breeding profits is conducive to the reduction of production capacity in the fourth quarter. The number of sows and piglets decreased month - on - month in November, and the far - month contract prices are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. The pig industry presents a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to the opportunity of reverse - spread strategies [10]. 5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical news speculation, and the sustainability is questionable. - **Logic**: The natural rubber market was strong yesterday, with an intraday increase of nearly 2%. It is mainly due to the price reaching the bottom of the range, affected by the news of the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and driven by the overall rebound of commodities. However, the market is still in a stage without strong driving forces and maintains an oscillatory pattern. The sustainability of this geopolitical speculation is questionable. Recently, downstream buying has been light, and there is insufficient support for the spot market, with a bearish market sentiment. Fundamentally, the overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the firm raw - material prices support the futures market to some extent, but there is still a risk of decline. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still acceptable after the price decline. In the short - term, without a strong expected difference and macro - driving factors, the rubber price is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillatory trend [12]. - **Outlook**: With limited fundamental variables, the rubber price is expected to continue to oscillate, and it is difficult to have a trend - like market [12]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The futures market maintains an oscillatory pattern. - **Logic**: BR followed the upward trend of natural rubber yesterday and has maintained an oscillatory range recently. Considering the relatively stable trading volume of butadiene and the limited downward space of natural rubber prices, the BR futures market is unlikely to decline significantly. The price of butadiene oscillated upward last week, and after the price fell to the annual low, some buyers entered the market, and the trading atmosphere improved. With the increase in price, the enthusiasm of sellers to sell increased, and some high - price transactions were blocked [13]. - **Outlook**: There is no upward driving force, and supported by natural rubber, the futures market maintains an oscillatory range [13]. 7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The near - month contract is strong, but there is significant resistance above. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase by 600,000 - 800,000 tons to 7.3 - 7.5 million tons, and the inspection speed this year is faster than in previous years, with a continuous increase in supply. On the demand side, after the "Golden September and Silver October" and "Double Eleven", orders have declined seasonally, but there is rigid demand support. According to BCO data, the commercial inventory in late November increased by only 10,000 tons year - on - year, reflecting the consumption resilience. Recently, the 01 contract has been strong in the short - term due to warehouse - receipt speculation. After the futures price rises above the hedging cost, it attracts industrial hedging positions, forming an "immediate ceiling". In the medium - to - long term, the domestic market may have a slight inventory increase or a tight balance in the new year. After the inventory inflection point, as the de - stocking process progresses, the upward pressure on cotton prices may gradually ease. Coupled with the uncertainty of the new - year planting subsidy policy, there is potential for price increase. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is difficult for the 01 contract to break through the pressure at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to be strong with oscillations. It is advisable to buy on dips [14]. 8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Short - term low - level oscillation. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long term, the domestic and international sugar prices are likely to continue the "weak with oscillations" pattern. The core logic is that the 2025/2026 sugar - crushing season will see a significant surplus globally, with the four major sugar - producing countries (Brazil, India, Thailand, and China) increasing production simultaneously. After the start of the new sugar - crushing season in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply is becoming a reality. As of December 10, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing. Although the sugar production in November was lower than last year, with the subsequent increase in supply, the downward pressure on sugar prices will gradually increase. In the short - term, the downside space of the 01 contract is limited, and there is strong support around 5,300 yuan/ton, but in the medium - to - long term, sugar prices are still under pressure, and there is no sign of a reversal yet [14][15]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, it is weak with oscillations. Due to the expected supply surplus in the new sugar - crushing season, there is a downward driving force for sugar prices. The strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended. In the short - term, there is support at 5,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. 9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures price has continued to decline, and an oscillatory trend is expected. - **Logic**: After a rapid rise, the pulp futures have declined in recent trading days. There were some bullish news last week, such as the increase in the US dollar - denominated price, the shutdown of pulp mills, and the significant decrease in port inventory. The current game point is whether the new bullish factors can push the price to break through the upper limit of the oscillatory range. Fundamentally, the price of broad - leaf pulp can be passed on downstream when the US dollar - denominated price rises and the domestic downstream production is at a peak. The narrowing price difference between needle - leaf and broad - leaf pulp supports the bottom of the needle - leaf pulp and the futures market. The expected supply reduction due to the shutdown of pulp mills is offset by the high inventory of pulp mills, but the actual actions of pulp mills increase the probability of an increase in the US dollar - denominated price of needle - leaf pulp. The upper - limit pressure comes from the fact that the current futures price allows for risk - free hedging in the US dollar - denominated and spot markets and the formation of warehouse receipts. The spot market of needle - leaf pulp has relatively abundant liquidity and slow sales, increasing the possibility of warehouse - receipt registration. Before the new US dollar - denominated price is determined at the end of the month, there are more bullish factors in the pulp market, which will push up the bottom of the futures price. It is unlikely to break below the low on December 1 again. However, there is still pressure at 5,500 - 5,600 yuan for any contract, and the price game in this range will continue. The far - month contracts are expected to show a wide - range oscillatory trend with a rising price. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Bullish news raises the bottom, but the hedging pressure above remains unchanged. The pulp futures will mainly have a wide - range oscillatory trend [16]. 10. Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The demand expectation is poor, and the price of double - gum paper is weakening. - **Logic**: In December, although there is提货 support from publishers, the market is pessimistic about the future demand. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price again, and it will continue to be weak in the short - term. The market changes include: some paper enterprises raised their quotes at the beginning of December, and some northern dealers slightly followed the price increase due to the cost pressure caused by the rise in broad - leaf pulp; the paper enterprises' production is generally stable, and the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises has increased; the current publishing orders have not been concentrated for提货, the social demand in the southern market is light, and the trading atmosphere of base paper is average, with the paper price basically stable; the upstream wood - pulp price is mainly rising, but the price increase of double - gum paper is limited by the demand side and lags behind the raw - material price. In the future, as publishers提货 in the middle of the month, the inventory pressure of paper enterprises may be relieved, but the social demand is light, and under the background of high overall costs, paper enterprises are expected to adjust the market supply and demand by reducing prices or production. - **Outlook**: The overall social demand is light. Supported by publishers'提货 and paper enterprises' costs, it will be weak but stable in the short - term [17]. 11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Affected by warehouse - receipt pressure, the log price is weakening. - **Logic**: On December 10, 2025, 200 new warehouse receipts were added in Shandong, which was bearish for the futures market. Coupled with the recent weakness of the spot market, the market sentiment was further dragged down, and the near - month contract fell by 1.

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Group 2: Report's Core View - Supply disruption concerns are intensifying, with polysilicon and lithium carbonate alternately leading the rally in new energy metals. In the medium - to - short - term, the adjustment of lithium ore production policies in Nigeria over the weekend supported lithium carbonate prices. Polysilicon prices initially declined due to the increase in registered brands but were later supported by the growing expectation of silicon material storage policies. In the long - term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, potentially raising the price center. The lithium ore production capacity is still rising, but the demand expectation is also increasing, narrowing the expected supply - demand surplus. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may occur earlier [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Industrial Silicon - **View**: Cost support is weakening, and silicon prices are continuously falling. The medium - term outlook is that the price will show an oscillatory trend [5][6]. - **Information Analysis**: As of December 10, the spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable. The latest domestic inventory increased by 1.3% month - on - month. In November 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon decreased by 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative production decreased by 15.3% year - on - year. In October, the export volume decreased by 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 30.43% month - on - month but decreased by 38.3% year - on - year [5]. - **Main Logic**: The significant decline in coal prices has weakened cost support, leading to a decline in silicon prices. In terms of fundamentals, the production of industrial silicon in December is expected to decline. The demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weak, and the inventory accumulation trend continues, resulting in a weakening of the fundamentals [6]. Polysilicon - **View**: The expectation of storage is rising again, and polysilicon prices continue to show high volatility. The medium - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [7][9][10]. - **Information Analysis**: As of the week of December 10, the average transaction price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased. In October 2025, the export volume decreased by 58% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 39.1% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. A new polysilicon platform company was registered, and new brands were added to the futures registration [7]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of polysilicon storage is rising, leading to high - volatility prices. The demand for polysilicon has declined marginally, but the supply is also shrinking during the dry season, and the expectation of anti - involution policies is still fermenting, so the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and lithium prices are experiencing greater volatility. The medium - term outlook is high - level oscillation [10][11]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 10, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.43%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, while the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased. A lithium project was put into operation [10]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand, and inventory is decreasing in December. The resumption of production at Jiaxiaowo may cause price fluctuations. The supply is expected to remain strong in December, and the demand is currently good but needs to be monitored in the off - season. The inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [10]. Group 4: Market Index Information - On December 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the special indexes such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index all increased. The new energy commodity index increased by 1.39% on the day, decreased by 1.44% in the past 5 days, increased by 2.49% in the past month, and increased by 6.81% since the beginning of the year [53][54].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - On December 10, silver rallied significantly, with the Shanghai silver futures rising 5.44% and Shanghai gold futures showing a mild upward trend with a 0.26% increase. The combination of squeeze trading and the risk of the Fed's independence has amplified the upward elasticity of silver. The new round of upward trend in gold and silver has started, and silver is expected to show greater elasticity [4]. - The contraction of the US dollar credit drives the long - term bull market in gold and silver. As the cycle shifts to a mild recovery, silver will have greater elasticity. In 2026, the global economy may transition from a soft landing to a mild recovery, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline, releasing the upward elasticity of silver [5]. - Attention should be paid to the FOMC meeting this week. Although there may be short - term adjustment risks after the meeting results are announced, the precious metals are expected to maintain an overall upward - trending oscillation this month, with silver showing greater elasticity and supporting the upward movement of gold [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On December 10, silver prices soared, with the Shanghai silver futures closing with a 5.44% increase, while Shanghai gold futures showed a mild upward trend with a 0.26% intraday increase [4]. Reasons for Silver's Upward Movement - Liquidity - easing trading is the core quarterly driver. The nomination of the new Fed chairman may be confirmed early next year, and the probability of the more dovish candidate Hassett being nominated is increasing. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for trading on liquidity - easing expectations and the risk of the Fed's independence [4]. - Silver squeeze trading has amplified the upward elasticity and is difficult to ease quickly. The London silver lease rate remains high, the spot shortage has not been fundamentally resolved. Squeeze trading has spread from London to other markets, and it has also spread from silver to other metal varieties [4]. Long - term Trend - The contraction of the US dollar credit will continue to dominate the long - term bull market in gold and silver. In 2026, as the global economy transitions from a soft landing to a mild recovery, the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline, and the upward elasticity of silver will be released [5]. Short - term Outlook - The results of the December FOMC meeting will be announced early on December 11. Since the market has largely priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut, and considering Powell's data - dependent style, there may be short - term adjustment risks if a hawkish rate cut scenario occurs. However, due to the persistent silver squeeze trading and the risk - trading related to the Fed chairman's change, precious metals are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation this month [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's outlook is "oscillation" [4] Core Views - The spot market has a good loading preference, and the freight rate center continues to rise. The 02 contract is at a premium to the 12 contract, with a significant increase in the 02 contract, rising trading volume, and increasing positions. The far - month contracts are oscillating, and the 12 contract has a slight decline [1] - The freight rates of some shipping companies in the spot market have adjusted. The geopolitical situation may complicate the second - stage cease - fire negotiations, and there are different stances in the macro - environment. The trading logic is that the shipping company's loading rate remains strong until the end of the year, and the market is optimistic about the implementation of the MSK's price increase plan. There are still expectations for price increases in January, and the 02 contract benefits from early delivery. It is advisable to pay attention to the 02 - 04 positive spread [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Spot Market Freight Rates - GEMINI: The HPL - SPOT NE2/AE1 freight rate in the third week of December dropped to $2235/FEU; the MSK's fourth - week price was $2300/FEU and remained unchanged today [2] - OCEAN: The CMA's freight rate in the first half of December dropped to $2345/FEU, a decrease of $300, the same as the OOCL's $2880/FEU in the first half of December. In the second half, GMA and OOCL are at $2745/FEU and $2530 - 2630/FEU respectively, and the offline price is $2450 - 2600/FEU [2] - PA&MSC: The YML updated the freight rate from December 21 - 31 to $1575/TEU and $2650/FEU, a decrease of $200/FEU compared to last week's announced price, but an increase of $650 compared to the first - half price in December [2] Geopolitical Situation - A Hamas source said they would negotiate on disarmament but would not be forced to give up their guns, asking Israel to withdraw from Gaza and mediators to ensure that Israel does not resume military operations in Gaza. The second - stage cease - fire negotiations may become complicated [2] Macro - environment - The French President expressed a tough stance after returning from a visit to China, criticizing the large trade surplus between China and the EU, while Germany had a positive attitude towards China [3] Trading Logic - By the end of the year, the shipping company's loading rate remains strong. The PA's container goods support its second - half price increase plan. The OCEAN's second - half freight rate is set at $2500/FEU, and the GEMINI's is set at $2300 - 2400/FEU, with the freight rate center rising by about $200/FEU compared to the first half [3] - The market is more optimistic about the implementation of MSK's plan to raise the price to $3500/FEU. MSK has announced a PSS for the Mediterranean route. Attention should be paid to whether it will push up the Nordic PSS to boost sentiment and benefit the near - month contracts [3] - Due to less delayed capacity in the 52nd week and the long - term contract negotiation period, there are still expectations for price increases in January and mid - January. The market demand before the Spring Festival in January is strong, and the 02 contract benefits from early delivery. There is a differentiation in the logic between near - and far - month contracts, and attention can be paid to the 02 - 04 positive spread [3] Contract Performance - As of the close, the 02 contract closed at 1665.2 points, up 3.41%, with an increase of 669 in open interest; the 04 contract closed at 1080.7 points, up 0.6%, with a decrease of 159 in open interest; the 06 contract closed at 1225.6 points, up 0.9%; the 12 contract closed slightly lower at 1655 points, down 0.4%, with a decrease of 114 in open interest [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report maintains a moderately optimistic view on certain equity and commodity assets [3][10][15]. Core Viewpoints The Political Bureau meeting held on December 8, 2025, set a relatively positive tone for the economic work in 2026. The meeting outlined five key points, including a new work tone, loose and proactive fiscal and monetary policies, emphasis on key tasks in the 15th Five - Year Plan, understanding of internal risks, and special arrangements for low - carbon transformation. These may have potential impacts on major assets such as equity indices, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Economy - The meeting set the core tone for 2026 economic work, with specific arrangements to be made at the Central Economic Work Conference [14]. - Five key focuses: new work tone of coordinating domestic and international economic affairs; potentially loose and proactive fiscal and monetary policies; emphasis on 15th Five - Year Plan tasks like expanding domestic demand and innovation; awareness and arrangements for internal risks; and special work for low - carbon transformation [15][16][17]. 2. Equity Index - The meeting's policy is supportive, emphasizing domestic demand and technological innovation. In the stock market, take a long - term view, wait for the "spring rally" window, and focus on technology and the price - increase chain. At the end of the year, the market consolidates to release capital crowding, and pullbacks are opportunities to add positions. Short - term focus on price - increase chain and high - dividend stocks, and medium - term on innovation and IC sectors [20][21][22]. 3. Bond and Forex - Fiscal policies will be more proactive, and monetary policies will be moderately loosened in 2026. Short - term caution on the long end of government bonds, and medium - term the bond market may be strong and volatile. The RMB exchange rate in 2026 may show a stable and rising trend with an operating range of 6.8 - 7.2 [27][30][31]. 4. Commodities - The meeting's policies are conducive to stabilizing the macro - expectations on the demand side of the commodity market. Traditional domestic demand areas will receive support, and green transformation will create incremental demand for new - energy - related commodities. The meeting will restrain excessive price fluctuations of key varieties and boost market confidence [33][35][36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On December 9, 2025, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 436.40 yuan/gram, with a change of -1.30%; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 380.45 yuan/gram, with a change of -0.47% [2] - For platinum, with the FOMC meeting approaching, it's waiting for further upward drive. Long - term, it maintains a bullish view. It's expected that platinum prices will fluctuate strongly, and it's recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities and the long - platinum short - palladium strategy [3] - For palladium, the spot shortage continues and the price remains firm. Short - term, the price will fluctuate strongly, while medium - to long - term, there is a risk of price decline due to looser supply - demand [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Platinum - Main logic: The Fed's interest - rate meeting this week is a focus, with expectations of a hawkish rate - cut signal. In December, the nomination of the Fed chair makes rate - cuts a core trading contradiction. The potential dovish Fed chair nominee makes platinum prices stronger. Long - term, high supply concentration brings risks, and demand will expand, with the "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination amplifying price elasticity [3] - Outlook: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro - expectations, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It's advisable to focus on low - buying opportunities and the long - platinum short - palladium strategy at a low platinum - palladium ratio [3] Palladium - Main logic: The Russian geopolitical issue affects palladium supply. The US investigation on Russian palladium and the lack of a compromise in the Russia - Ukraine conflict lead to a short - term supply shortage in other regions. Palladium demand has structural pressure. Although long - term supply - demand tends to loosen, short - term shortage and Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [4] - Outlook: Short - term, due to spot shortage and a relatively favorable macro - environment, palladium prices will fluctuate strongly. Medium - to long - term, pay attention to the price decline risk after the US investigation's result and the loosening of supply - demand [4] Commodity Index (December 9, 2025) - The comprehensive index was 2242.53, with a change of -1.08%; the commodity 20 index was 2560.81, with a change of -1.08%; the industrial product index was 2185.44, with a change of -1.38% [32] - The PPI commodity index was 1348.04, with a change of -1.57% [32] - The non - ferrous metal index was 2532.90, with a daily change of -1.69%, a 5 - day change of +0.67%, a 1 - month change of +1.93%, and a year - to - date change of +9.73% [32]