Group 1: Core Views - The standard deviation of monthly price changes of individual stocks in the micro - cap index can reflect the deviation of individual stocks and the ability to obtain excess returns of the micro - cap index [1] - In an environment of increasing trading volume, the micro - cap index is more likely to obtain excess returns compared to the small - cap index, which is beneficial for private quantitative funds to expand their pricing power and makes the small - market - capitalization factor dominant [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [6] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [7] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating on the strong side [10] Core Viewpoints - The risk of supply disruptions in the new energy metals market persists, leading to high - level and wide - range oscillations. Although short - term negative impacts on supply - demand expectations have driven a sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices, supply - demand is likely to enter a phase of relative tightness, which supports lithium prices. In the medium - to - short - term, the expected contraction of supply and rising costs support new energy metal prices. For lithium, supply disruptions may continue to push up prices in the medium - to - short - term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon face high production capacity and output, with weakening supply - demand and limited upward price momentum, showing an oscillating trend. In the long - term, if there is no substantial contraction in supply or significant improvement in demand, silicon prices may decline, and high growth in lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: As of August 21, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 0.02% month - on - month. In July, the monthly output increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 30.6% year - on - year. The export volume in July increased by 8.3% month - on - month and 36.7% year - on - year. In June, domestic photovoltaic new installations decreased by 38.45% year - on - year [6]. - **Main Logic**: Supply is on the rise, with silicon plants in the southwest resuming production faster due to the wet - season advantage and price rebound, and some large enterprises in Xinjiang resuming production after maintenance. Demand has improved slightly, with polysilicon enterprises driving up demand, the organic silicon industry maintaining rigid procurement, and the aluminum alloy sector having stable demand. Inventory is expected to accumulate further, and market pressure needs attention [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, silicon prices will continue to oscillate due to macro sentiment and coal prices. If large enterprises resume production intensively, prices may be further pressured [7]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: As of a certain period, the成交 price of N - type re - feedstock polysilicon was in the range of 45,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,900 yuan/ton, up 1.05% week - on - week. The number of warehouse receipts increased. In July, exports decreased by 3.92% month - on - month and 63.14% year - on - year, while imports increased by 5.11% month - on - month. From January to June 2025, domestic photovoltaic new installations increased by 107% year - on - year [7]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, anti - cut - throat competition sentiment is fluctuating, and coal prices have declined, resulting in wide - range oscillations in polysilicon prices. In terms of supply, production capacity in the southwest has increased with the wet season, and production is expected to continue rising in August. In terms of demand, photovoltaic installations in the first five months had high growth, but it has weakened since June, and future demand may continue to decline. Overall, supply - demand is under pressure, and price fluctuations have increased [8]. - **Outlook**: Anti - cut - throat competition policies have significantly boosted prices. Future price trends depend on policy implementation, and if policy expectations fade, prices may reverse [9]. 3. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: On August 21, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.2% to 82,760 yuan, and the total open interest decreased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 950 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 79,800 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 275 tons [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: The initial impact of the mine shutdown has subsided. The current trading focuses on actual supply - demand shortages and potential mine shutdowns. Fundamentally, a supply gap is emerging, with weekly production declining, especially for mica - based production. Imports declined significantly in July but are expected to recover in the fourth quarter. Demand is relatively stable in August and is expected to enter the peak season in September. Social inventory has decreased slightly, and warehouse receipts are gradually recovering. However, high prices may stimulate supply release. Market sentiment is volatile, and price extremes may occur [10]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand gap caused by mine shutdowns is expected to keep prices oscillating on the strong side [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 21, equity indices showed mixed performance, CGB futures rose, and commodity futures had a mixed trend with energy and chemical futures relatively strong and agricultural product futures relatively weak [2][11][14]. - The top three gainers were silicon metal, sodium hydroxide, and paraxylene, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), egg, and coking coal [12][13][14]. - The report also provided analyses and outlooks for specific commodities such as silicon metal, PTA, and soybean meal [18][25][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 21, equity indices had some rising and some falling, CGB futures gained, and commodity futures showed a mixed trend with energy and chemical futures strong and agricultural product futures weak [11][14]. - The top three gainers were silicon metal (up 3.7% with 1.3% month - on - month open interest increase), sodium hydroxide (up 3.3% with 23.3% month - on - month open interest increase), and paraxylene (up 2.6% with 17.8% month - on - month open interest increase) [12][14]. - The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 2.5% with 5.0% month - on - month open interest increase), egg (down 2.2% with 10.9% month - on - month open interest increase), and coking coal (down 1.5% with 0.1% month - on - month open interest increase) [13][14]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On August 21, silicon metal increased by 3.7% to 8635 yuan/ton. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate under macro sentiment and coal prices with little fundamental change. Concentrated production resumption may suppress prices [18][20]. - In August, southwest capacity release has significant room, and some major manufacturers may resume production, increasing supply pressure. Demand shows signs of month - on - month improvement, and inventory is expected to accumulate [19][20]. 1.2.2 PTA - On August 21, PTA increased by 2.5% to 4860 yuan/ton, driven by domestic petrochemical news, South Korea's capacity cut, and plant maintenance [25][31]. - China's plan to address overcapacity and South Korea's capacity cut may impact PX imports. Plant maintenance eases short - term supply pressure [26][27][28]. - In the short term, polyester chain prices are expected to have stronger support due to reduced supply, increased demand, and positive news [29][32]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Soybean Meal - On August 21, soybean meal decreased by 1.0% to 3113 yuan/ton. With downstream stocking, the basis may rebound, and long positions at 2900 - 2910 should be held and increased on dips [36][40]. - The American Soybean Association called for an agreement with China. U.S. soybean growth is good, and Brazil's export volume has peaked [37][40]. - Domestically, near - term inventory pressure and long - term supply gap are recognized. Oil factory maintenance eases near - term pressure, and long - term demand may increase [39][40]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration will exempt personal income tax for child - rearing subsidies from January 1, 2025 [46]. - The American Soybean Association called on Trump to reach an agreement with China to ease the crisis of soybean farmers [46]. 2.2 Industry News - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will promote the research and development of billet, cement, chicken, etc., and explore short - term options [47][48]. - HKEX will study a 24 - hour trading mechanism based on international experience and local market conditions [47][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The profit bottom of the chemical industry has emerged or is approaching. Chemical stocks are more certain investment targets than chemical futures. The absolute price of chemical futures will be stronger than that of raw materials in the near - term, and the profit margin will not be compressed further [3]. - The overall energy and chemical market has returned to a volatile state, and it is still difficult for prices to rise as the actual supply - demand situation has not changed [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - International crude oil futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate on Wednesday night. The "Friendship" pipeline has fully resumed normal operation. Russia sells oil to India at a discount of about 5%. The crack spread of refined oil has strengthened recently [2]. - On August 20th, Bloomberg reported that the Chinese government plans to comprehensively adjust the petrochemical industry, including eliminating small - scale facilities, upgrading old facilities, and shifting investment to new special materials. South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually [3]. 3.2 Performance and Outlook of Each Variety 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: U.S. inventory is favorable, but the upside space for oil prices is expected to be limited. - **Main Logic**: EIA data shows strong demand in the U.S. refining sector last week, with rising exports and falling imports, and a decline in commercial crude oil inventories. However, in the future, crude oil inventories will face double pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and the accelerated production increase of OPEC+. - **Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and short - term disturbances from the Russia - Ukraine negotiation should be noted [9]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price has shifted from a decline to a volatile state. - **Main Logic**: EIA has significantly lowered the oil price forecast, and the geopolitical premium has declined. However, the cost of asphalt is supported by the increase in oil prices due to the attack on the Druzhba pipeline. The supply shortage has been alleviated, but the demand is still not optimistic. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases [10]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical premium has returned, and high - sulfur fuel oil has slightly increased in a volatile manner. - **Main Logic**: EIA has lowered the oil price forecast and raised the OPEC production forecast. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The attack on Russian refineries has led to a return of the geopolitical premium, but the overall supply exceeds demand. - **Outlook**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease. The price will fluctuate weakly [11]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates following the crude oil price. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although it is driven by the increase in the diesel crack spread, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate following the crude oil price due to low valuation [13]. 3.2.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The news boosts the price, but the actual impact is limited, and the methanol futures price fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The domestic chemical capacity policy news boosts the price, but the number of old methanol production capacities is small, so the actual impact is limited. The decline in oil prices has put pressure on downstream olefins, which has a传导 effect on methanol. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [29]. 3.2.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The spot price has increased following the futures price, but the futures price has slightly declined as the market sentiment has returned to calm. Downstream buyers are still cautious and waiting for the official export to India. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment has a short - term impact, and the long - term trend will return to the fundamentals of loose supply and demand [30]. 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: Stimulated by petrochemical news, the price is supported. - **Main Logic**: Although the fundamentals change little, the macro - sentiment has a significant impact, driving the price up in the afternoon. The policy of eliminating backward production capacity boosts the confidence of long - position holders. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the EG09 - 01 reverse spread strategy [22]. 3.2.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: The oil price has stabilized slightly, and the sentiment in the domestic chemical market has warmed up again, strengthening the short - term support. - **Main Logic**: The crude oil price fluctuates and consolidates, and the decline slows down. The market reacts strongly to the anti - involution policy news in the chemical industry. South Korea's reduction of naphtha cracking capacity is expected to affect overseas imports. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the support at the price of 6600 [14]. 3.2.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Disturbed by petrochemical news, the market atmosphere has warmed up, and the support has strengthened. - **Main Logic**: PTA follows the rise of PX as the cost is stronger. The market sentiment in the chemical industry has warmed up, and the anti - involution expectation drives up the price. Although the downstream filament sales have declined, the chip sales have improved. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance in August [14]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates following the upstream cost. - **Main Logic**: The absolute price follows the upstream cost. The supply - demand situation is stable, and the processing margin is slightly repaired. The limited new production capacity and the expected increase in peak - season demand will support the price. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation and consolidation in the short term [23]. 3.2.11 Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost provides some support, but its own driving force is limited. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the upstream polymerization cost and fluctuates upward. The market sentiment in the domestic chemical industry has warmed up, and the price is expected to be supported. The inventory is expected to decline slowly as the major manufacturers continue to cut production. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [25]. 3.2.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: Stimulated by the news at noon, but the fundamental support is limited, and PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The news of plant maintenance to solve the petrochemical over - capacity problem stimulates the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price fluctuates in the short term, and the propane price is low, which suppresses the PP valuation. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is still in the off - peak to peak - season transition period，with low operating rates in related industries. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [32]. 3.2.13 Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: PL fluctuates following PP in the short term. - **Main Logic**: Although the local supply has decreased, the market is still in a wait - and - see state. The downstream buyers mainly purchase for rigid demand. The PP - PL processing margin is around 600, which is considered reasonable. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [33]. 3.2.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: Stimulated by petrochemical news, the plastic price rebounded in the afternoon. - **Main Logic**: The news of plant maintenance boosts the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price fluctuates in the short term, and the global crude oil inventory is under pressure. The macro - level still has capital games, and the plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [31]. 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Disturbed by the anti - involution news in the petrochemical industry, the price rebounded from the intraday low. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation is expected to ease, and the IEA has lowered the global demand growth forecast, putting pressure on the oil market. Pure benzene has performed stronger than the cost this week, mainly due to factors such as the expected reduction in coking and hydro - benzene production, downstream replenishment, and port inventory reduction. - **Outlook**: There is an expectation of a small inventory reduction in August. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the July import data next week [18]. 3.2.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Disturbed by the anti - involution news in the petrochemical industry, the price rebounded from the intraday low. - **Main Logic**: The price has been fluctuating weakly recently. The positive factors include the slight improvement in the pure benzene market and the start of peak - season inventory replenishment by downstream industries. However, the negative factors are stronger, such as the new production capacity coming on stream and the limited peak - season demand. - **Outlook**: The main port inventory is sufficient, and the market is prone to price increases with volume decreases. The output is expected to increase slightly, and the rigid demand is stable, but the spot demand is weak, so the inventory will continue to accumulate [19]. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Pressured by anti - dumping measures, the demand is affected, and PVC is cautiously bearish. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the anti - involution expectation still exists. At the micro - level, the fundamentals are under pressure, with weak cost support. The production may decline slightly during the autumn maintenance, the downstream operating rate changes little, the export is under pressure due to anti - dumping measures, and the cost is moving down. - **Outlook**: The futures price is cautiously bearish due to the pressure on export expectations and weak cost support [35]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot performance is good, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the anti - involution expectation still exists. At the micro - level, the fundamentals are improving marginally, with increased demand from alumina production and downstream replenishment. However, the export is average, and the increase in maintenance in Shandong may lead to a slight decline in the operating rate. Attention should be paid to the impact of poor chlorine sales on the caustic soda production. - **Outlook**: The downstream is still replenishing inventory, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in market sentiment [36]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the changes in different time - period spreads [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, reflecting the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the quantity of warehouse receipts [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG are given, showing the price differences between different varieties [41]. 3.4 Index Performance - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined slightly on August 20, 2025 [282]. - **Energy Index**: On August 20, 2025, the energy index had a daily decline of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 0.63%, a 1 - month decline of 4.94%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.71% [284].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Oscillating Bullish | | Protein Meal | Oscillating | | Corn and Starch | Oscillating Bearish | | Hogs | Oscillating | | Natural Rubber | Oscillating Bullish | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillating Bullish | | Cotton | Oscillating Bullish | | Sugar | Oscillating Bearish in the long - term, Oscillating in the short - term | | Pulp | Oscillating | | Logs | Oscillating Bearish | [171] 2. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the current market conditions, influencing factors, and offers mid - term outlooks and trading strategies for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Short - term focus on the effectiveness of the lower technical support. - **Logic**: Technical selling pressure led to drops in US soybeans and soybean oil on Tuesday. The market is waiting for the Fed Chair's speech, with the US dollar oscillating stronger and crude oil prices falling. US soybean growth is good, and the USDA August report anticipates a record - high yield. There are uncertainties in US soybean exports, and the demand for US soybean oil from biodiesel has decreased this year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak. Palm oil is in the production season, and there is a high probability of inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bullish [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The price is oscillating narrowly at a high level, waiting for the results of the field inspection. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybean is expected to oscillate around 1050 cents. Domestically, there is a consensus on near - month inventory pressure and far - month supply shortage. Some oil mills will reduce their operating rates, and the import profit is rising. - **Outlook**: The basis may bottom out and rebound. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The sentiment is bearish, and spot and near - month prices are falling rapidly. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are generally falling. The supply of old - crop corn is tight, but the purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The new - crop corn production is normal, and foreign supply is abundant. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bearish in the short - term, with supply pressure easing after the new - crop harvest [7][8]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **View**: Stricter transportation policies have weakened the futures price. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in August has increased. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to increase. In the long - term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. There is inventory pressure in the short - term, and the far - month prices may be affected by capacity reduction expectations [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The weakening of commodity sentiment dragged down the rubber price. - **Logic**: Although the rubber price dropped due to weakening sentiment, it gradually recovered in the afternoon. The rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, and there are many speculative themes. The short - term supply may decrease, and the demand is rigid. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bullish in the short - term [11][12]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Positive news supported the price rebound after the decline. - **Logic**: The BR price initially followed the market down but rebounded after the news of petrochemical industry reform. The price is mainly affected by natural rubber and the short - term tight supply of butadiene. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price may rise slightly, and the market may oscillate bullishly [13][14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Supported by fundamentals, the cotton price corrected during the session but was relatively resistant to decline. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, the cotton price corrected at night but rebounded during the day. The commercial inventory is low, and the demand is improving, but there are also factors restricting the price increase. - **Outlook**: Oscillating between 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The increasing supply has put pressure on the sugar price. - **Logic**: In the international market, Brazil's sugar production is increasing. In the domestic market, the import volume in July reached a high level. The supply is increasing, but the downward space is limited in the short - term. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bearish in the long - term, oscillating between 5600 - 5900 yuan/ton in the short - term [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The price change is small, moving within a range. - **Logic**: The pulp price continued to correct, and the spot price of softwood pulp declined. The supply and demand of wood pulp have both positive and negative factors. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The price of hardwood pulp may drive the futures price, and the main contract is expected to move between 5100 - 5500 [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: Try to go long on far - month contracts at low prices. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of logs are marginally improving, with reduced arrival pressure and inventory depletion. However, there are also negative factors such as weak demand and delivery pressure. - **Outlook**: Oscillating between 790 - 840 [19][20]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [22][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report defines rating standards such as bullish, oscillating bullish, oscillating, oscillating bearish, and bearish, with a time - cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [171]. 3.4 Commodity Index On August 20, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined. The agricultural product index also declined, with a year - to - date increase of 2.94% [172][173][175].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating, with most varieties expected to fluctuate, indicating that the market trend is uncertain in the short - term, and the expected price change is within plus or minus one standard deviation [102]. Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is currently affected by factors such as the approaching peak - off - peak season transition, limited pre - event production restrictions, and inventory pressure. The overall market is in a state of shock, and the follow - up needs to focus on production restrictions and terminal demand [1][2][5]. - The price of steel products is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the supply and demand of steel products will be affected around the military parade. The specific situation of blast furnace production restrictions needs to be tracked [7]. - The iron ore market has stable supply and inventory, and the demand is at a high level. The negative driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2][7]. - The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. Although the profit of electric furnaces decreases due to the pressure on the price of finished products, the resources are still relatively tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. - The coking coal market has short - term supply and demand tightness under supply disturbances, and the short - term disk still has support [2][11]. - The glass market has weak fundamentals, and the cost support is strengthened by the rise in coal prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and the price may decline in the long - term [2][13]. - The soda ash market has an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term and decline in the long - term to promote capacity reduction [2][15]. - The supply pressure of manganese silicon increases, and the price may decline in the long - term; the short - term price of ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate, but there are hidden concerns in the long - term fundamentals [2]. Summary by Variety Steel - Core Logic: Low - price transactions are the main form, and the overall spot trading of steel products is average. Last week, steel mills had both resumption and maintenance, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed little. Rebar inventory increased significantly, and the demand continued to decline. The export orders of hot - rolled coils improved, and the domestic demand was resilient, with the inventory accumulation slowing down. The inventory of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products declined and the inventory accumulated, showing off - peak season characteristics [7]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of steel products are marginally weakening in the off - peak season. The supply and demand will be affected around the military parade. The blast furnace production restriction situation needs to be tracked. The disk may fluctuate more violently, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. The follow - up should focus on the production restriction of steel mills and terminal demand [7]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: The port trading volume increased. The overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded slightly, slightly higher than the same period last year. The total supply is relatively stable. The small - sample molten iron output remained stable, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased slightly. The iron ore ports accumulated inventory, the number of berthed ships decreased, and steel mills replenished inventory slightly [7]. - Outlook: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, the supply and inventory are stable, and the negative driving force of the fundamentals is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in the future [7]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The arrival volume of scrap steel increased slightly week - on - week. The daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces and blast furnaces increased, and the total daily consumption increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available days of inventory decreased to a relatively low level. After the price cut by Shagang, the scrap steel prices in East China and other places followed the decline, while the prices in Hebei increased slightly [9]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. Although the profit of electric furnaces decreases due to the pressure on the price of finished products, the resources are still relatively tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, the market was calm and the disk fluctuated. In the spot market, the price remained stable. After the sixth round of price increase, the overall profit of coking enterprises turned positive, and the production increased slightly. The downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm. The trading enthusiasm of traders decreased, and the steel mill arrivals improved. The upstream coking enterprises continued to reduce inventory, and the overall inventory pressure was not significant [10]. - Outlook: The expectation of production restrictions on coke is strong before the military parade, and the short - term supply is tight. The seventh round of price increase still needs time to be implemented. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the impact of production restriction policies on coking and steel enterprises [10]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Some coal mines in the production area resumed production, but some mine points still had limited production. The short - term supply disturbance of coal mines will continue. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remained above 1,000 vehicles. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the downstream purchases on demand. Some coal mines have accumulated inventory, but there is no obvious inventory pressure due to a large number of pre - sold orders [2][11]. - Outlook: The supply disturbance continues, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in supply before the military parade. The short - term fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term disk still has support [11]. Glass - Core Logic: After the decline in the glass disk, the sentiment in the spot market declined. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the upstream inventory has increased slightly. The increase in coal prices has strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak [2][13]. - Outlook: The real - world demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong. After the transaction of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still has a premium. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The oversupply pattern of soda ash has not changed. The spot trading is still weak after the increase in the disk. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the demand is relatively stable. The downstream replenishment sentiment is weak [2][15]. - Outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and the price center will continue to decline in the long - term to promote capacity reduction [15]. Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The terminal demand is weak, and the price of manganese silicon futures opened low and moved low. The raw material procurement by manufacturers before the military parade is almost over, the port trading atmosphere has cooled down, and the port ore price has declined slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand will decline slightly during the military parade [2]. - Outlook: The current inventory pressure is controllable, and the short - term price decline space is limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship may become looser, and the price may decline [2]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The terminal demand is weak, and the ferrosilicon futures opened with a gap down and then consolidated. The production of ferrosilicon is accelerating, and the demand for steelmaking will decline slightly during the military parade. The magnesium market has weak high - price transaction follow - up [2][17]. - Outlook: The current inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price decline space is limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center will decline [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillating upward with a bias towards strength" [10] - The investment rating for stock index options is "oscillating" [11] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "oscillating downward with a bias towards weakness" [11] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures are catalyzed by anti - involution policies. The upward trend of the market continues, and it is recommended to hold long positions in IM contracts to enjoy the excess returns of the growth style [3][10] - Stock index options see the fulfillment of positive expectations and an increase in volatility. It is advisable to adopt bull spread and short - volatility strategies [4][11] - Treasury bond futures experience a resurgence of risk appetite. The long - end of the bond market is significantly disturbed, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities for the yield curve to steepen and long - end arbitrage [5][11][12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and closed higher, standing firmly at a ten - year high with trading volume slightly shrinking to 2.44 trillion yuan. The growth style was prominent. Affected by the overnight slump in US tech stocks, A - shares opened lower but became an opportunity for portfolio adjustment. Anti - involution news catalyzed the oil and petrochemical industry, and the index accelerated its upward movement with the discount further narrowing. It is recommended to hold long positions in IM contracts [3][10] Stock Index Options - The underlying assets first declined and then rose. The option market turnover increased in the afternoon. Volatility decreased in the morning and increased in the afternoon. It is recommended to build short - volatility positions in batches and maintain a positive directional exposure [4][11] Treasury Bond Futures - The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed lower again. The decline was mainly due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The long - end of the bond market was more disturbed, and the short - end performed relatively well with the curve steepening. It is recommended to pay attention to curve - steepening opportunities and long - end arbitrage [5][11][12] 2. Economic Calendar - On August 20, 2025, China's one - year loan prime rate (LPR) in August remained at 3%. The preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in August is expected to be 49.5, and Japan's national CPI annual rate in July is expected to be 3.1% [13] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The upcoming military parade will feature domestically - produced active - service main battle equipment, including new fourth - generation equipment, unmanned intelligent and anti - unmanned equipment, and advanced strategic weapons, demonstrating the military's combat capabilities [13] - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues and expected to meet again before November [14] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not elaborated in the summary requirements [15][19][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The high - interest - rate environment affects consumption, and inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. - Domestic: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with weakening consumption and investment and declining credit demand. Exports provided support in July, but the pressure on exports may gradually emerge from September. - Asset Outlook: At the end of August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption. The global central bank summit in late August is also a window for speculating on Fed policies. As the economic growth slowdown pressure rises, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, and there are differences in CPI and PPI expectations. Inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing Fed decisions [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In July, the domestic economic growth rate slowed down. Exports provided support, but the "rush to import" from the US decreased in late July. Exports may remain resilient in August but face pressure from September [8]. - **Asset Views**: In late August, the market enters a verification period and a policy - preview window. With the economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Growth opportunities are spreading, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: An offensive strategy can be deployed, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season is turning to the off - season, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - restriction news, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: With continuous production - restriction expectations, the seventh round of price increases has started, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the extension of the tariff suspension between China and the US [9]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot is weakly stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [9]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The inventory - accumulation pressure continues, and it is expected to fluctuate downwards [11]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Asphalt**: The price at 3500 may turn from support to pressure, and it is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Hogs**: Affected by stricter transportation policies, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate upwards, mainly in a range - bound pattern [11]. - **Pulp**: The price of coniferous wood pulp in US dollars has not increased, and it is expected to fluctuate [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - South Africa is a middle - income developing country and the most economically developed and industrialized nation in Africa, with a relatively complete financial and legal system and good infrastructure, but suffers from unbalanced development among economic sectors and regions [1][9]. - The manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and service industries are well - developed and serve as the four pillars of the economy. The manufacturing industry has a complete range of sectors, while emerging export industries like automobile manufacturing are growing strongly [2][11]. - South Africa is rich in mineral resources, being a major global producer and exporter of gold, platinum - group metals, and chromium [2][11]. - In the energy field, South Africa's liquid fuel production mainly relies on synthetic fuels, and it has limited natural gas resources, relying on imports. Coal production and consumption are relatively stable, and power generation mainly depends on fossil fuels, especially coal, while non - hydro renewable energy has great growth potential [17][21][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 South Africa National Overview 3.1.1 Geographical Location - South Africa, with an area of about 1.22 million square kilometers, is located at the southernmost tip of the African continent, bordering the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, and neighboring several countries. It has a coastline of about 3000 kilometers and a tropical savanna climate in most areas [8]. 3.1.2 Economic Overview - In 2022, the population was 62 million, with four major ethnic groups. English and Afrikaans are the common languages, and about 80% of the population believes in Christianity [9]. - In 2024, the nominal GDP was $400.2 billion, and the per - capita nominal GDP was $6333. The economy has been sluggish in recent years, but the government has launched initiatives to promote growth [11]. - The manufacturing industry's output value accounts for about 17.2% of GDP, covering various fields. The mining industry is rich in resources, with over 70 types of minerals mined, and diamond production accounts for about 9% of the world's total [2][11]. - South Africa is a free - trade country, with China as its largest trading partner. It mainly exports minerals, precious metals, and transportation equipment, and imports mechanical and electrical products, minerals, etc. [12]. 3.1.3 Historical Politics - South Africa has a complex colonial history. After a long - term apartheid policy, it achieved democratic elections in 1994. The new constitution implements the separation of powers, and South Africa pursues an independent foreign policy and is active in international affairs [13][14][15]. 3.2 Oil and Other Liquids - In 2023, the total production of liquid fuels was about 108,000 barrels per day, mainly synthetic fuels. Only two of the four refineries are currently operating, and there are GTL and CTL plants [17][18]. - South Africa does not export crude oil or condensate and relies on imports. From 2014 - 2023, it imported an average of 316,000 barrels per day. In 2023, 66% of imports came from African countries, with Nigeria being the largest source [32][34]. - South Africa is both an importer and exporter of petroleum products. From 2020 - 2023, it imported an average of 316,000 barrels per day and exported an average of 34,000 barrels per day [37]. 3.3 Natural Gas - From 2014 - 2023, the average annual production of dry natural gas was about 27 Bcf, and the average annual consumption was about 171 Bcf. It relies on imports from Mozambique due to limited domestic resources [21]. - The PetroSA GTL refinery stopped operating in 2020 due to insufficient gas supply. In December 2023, PetroSA announced cooperation with Gazprombank to restart it [22][24]. - South Africa plans to expand its gas pipeline network and build LNG infrastructure to diversify imports and increase consumption [43]. 3.4 Coal - In 2022, the proven coal reserves were about 11 billion short tons. Production and consumption were relatively stable, with production of about 269 million short tons and consumption of about 192 million short tons [25]. - The Secunda CTL refinery uses coal to produce synthetic fuels and chemicals, with a total capacity of 150,000 barrels per day [25]. - South Africa imports little coal but is an important exporter. From 2013 - 2022, it imported an average of 2.7 million short tons per year and exported an average of 83.9 million short tons per year [44]. 3.5 Electricity - In 2022, the total installed capacity was 63.4 GW, and the power generation was about 230 GWh. Fossil - fuel power generation accounted for 76% of the total capacity and 88% of the total generation, mainly from coal [27]. - Non - hydro renewable energy has great growth potential. The REIPPPP has procured about 6.4 GW of renewable energy from 112 independent power producers [31]. - The JETP announced an $8.5 billion fund to support South Africa's decarbonization efforts [31]. 3.6 Energy Trade 3.6.1 Oil and Other Liquids - South Africa relies on imports for crude oil and condensate, and is both an importer and exporter of petroleum products [32][37]. 3.6.2 Natural Gas - South Africa imports natural gas through pipelines from Mozambique and plans to expand its pipeline network and build LNG infrastructure [38][43]. 3.6.3 Coal - South Africa has low coal imports and is a major coal exporter, mainly exporting through the RBCT [44]. 3.6.4 Electricity - As a member of the SAPP, South Africa trades electricity with other members. From 2013 - 2022, it exported an average of 14.5 GWh per year and imported an average of 10.3 GWh per year [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View On August 20, multiple contracts of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down, mainly due to supply disruptions and sanctions. Short - term supply concerns may lead to extreme price movements, and relevant risks should be avoided. Upstream enterprises can conduct hedging, institutional investors should hold positions cautiously, and consider long - position layouts during price pullbacks. An 11 - 01/05 reverse spread strategy can be considered [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons On August 20, multiple contracts of lithium carbonate futures hit the limit down, with the main contract dropping to 8,080 yuan per ton. The decline was affected by two events: on August 19, Jiangte Motor announced the upcoming resumption of production of its subsidiary, Yichun Yinli, and the US DHS added lithium to the list of high - priority industries under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, increasing concerns about the lithium supply chain [3]. Fundamental Situation There have been continuous disruptions on the supply side. Yichun Yinli's resumption of production after a one - month equipment maintenance is expected to have a limited actual impact on supply (about 1,000 tons per month), but a large impact on market sentiment. There are also concerns about mining compliance issues. In July, lithium ore imports were 75.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.35%, with Australian exports at 273,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 67.24%. In July, domestic lithium carbonate imports were 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year increase of 74.4%. From January to July, China imported 132,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Currently, domestic supply and demand are generally balanced, but a supply - demand gap may emerge [4]. Summary and Strategy Short - term supply disruptions may cause extreme price movements. Upstream enterprises can conduct hedging, institutional investors should hold positions cautiously and consider long - position layouts during price pullbacks. For arbitrage, considering the long - term oversupply situation, a 11 - 01/05 reverse spread strategy can be considered [5].