Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - On August 25, equity indices and CGB futures rose, and most commodity futures increased, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [2][11][13] - Shanghai issued new property market policies, and the CSRC strengthened supervision over futures companies' internet marketing activities [39][40] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 25, equity indices and CGB futures rose; most commodity futures gained ground, with coking coal and coke leading the gains. The top three gainers were coking coal (up 6.5% with open interest up 3.1% month - on - month), fuel oil (up 5.1% with open interest up 4.5% month - on - month), and coke (up 4.4% with open interest up 6.2% month - on - month). The top three decliners were rapeseed (down 0.3% with open interest down 5.0% month - on - month), lithium carbonate (down 0.3% with open interest up 1.8% month - on - month), and polyester staple fiber (down 0.3% with open interest down 2.8% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On August 25, coking coal increased by 6.5% to 1215.5 yuan/ton. Supported by slow supply recovery and rigid demand from coking enterprises, the short - term futures market has support. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of major coal mine accidents [17][20][21] - Supply: Some coal mines in main production areas resumed operations, but new ones suspended or reduced production in some areas. Imported coal customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port increased. Demand: Coke output was stable with a slight increase, and coking enterprises procured based on demand. Upstream coal mines started to accumulate inventories slightly [18][19][21] 1.2.2 Coke - On August 25, coke increased by 4.4% to 1736 yuan/ton. With military parade - related production restriction expectations, the supply - demand tight situation may continue, and the futures market has support from rigid demand and production restriction expectations [26][28][29] - Supply: The seventh round of price increases was implemented, coking enterprise profits rebounded, and output picked up, but supply increase was limited due to high costs. Demand: Steel mills had good profits, steel exports improved, and the rigid demand for coke was strong. Inventory: Steel mills actively purchased, and coking enterprise inventories dropped to a low level and then slightly accumulated [27][28][29] 1.2.3 Fuel Oil - On August 25, fuel oil increased by 5.1% to 2907 yuan/ton. The reasons were Ukraine's attacks and US sanctions on Chinese companies, leading to the resurgence of the geopolitical premium for fuel oil. In the short - term, it performed strongly, and the bitumen - fuel oil price spread fell rapidly. In the context of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, it may be strong in the near term but weak in the long term [32][33][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Shanghai issued the "Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policy Measures" on August 25, including policies on housing purchase restrictions, housing provident fund, credit, and property tax, effective from August 26, 2025 [39][40] - The Shanghai Head Office of the People's Bank of China adjusted the pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loan interest rates in Shanghai on August 25, no longer differentiating between first - home and second - home loans [39][40] - Premier Li Qiang listened to the report on the implementation of policies for large - scale equipment upgrading and consumer goods trade - in on August 22, emphasizing strengthening coordination, cracking down on fraud, and releasing domestic demand potential [39][40] 2.2 Industry News - On August 22, the CSRC issued the "Interim Provisions on the Administration of Internet Marketing by Futures Companies", strengthening the whole - process supervision over futures companies' internet marketing activities [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. However, individual metal outlooks are provided, including "oscillation" for copper, aluminum, lead, and nickel; "oscillation under pressure" for alumina; "oscillation with a downward bias" for zinc; and "oscillation with potential upward volatility" for tin. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Non-Ferrous Metals**: The weakening US dollar index provides support for base metals. In the short to medium term, the weak dollar supports prices, but the weak demand outlook means the potential for inventory reduction in the September peak season is uncertain. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support prices [1]. - **Copper**: Powell's dovish remarks boost copper prices, which are expected to oscillate at a high level. Supply constraints and low inventory support prices, but weakening demand and US tariffs on copper may limit upside [4][5]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weak and stable, and increasing warehouse receipts put pressure on prices. The market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to overcapacity and inventory accumulation [5][9]. - **Aluminum**: Macro sentiment boosts prices, which are expected to oscillate. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is showing signs of improvement, but the inventory reduction trend needs confirmation [9][10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Strong cost support keeps prices oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply - demand balance is weak, but there is potential for price spreads to widen [11][14]. - **Zinc**: Rising expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a small rebound in prices. In the long term, supply is expected to remain in surplus, and prices may decline [14][15]. - **Lead**: Macro sentiment drives a small rebound in prices. Supply may tighten slightly this week, and demand is recovering, but battery enterprise operating rates and scrap battery prices also affect prices [16][18]. - **Nickel**: The equity market's strength supports short - term prices, but the market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the fundamental situation is weakening [19][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Declining warehouse receipts drive prices up. Attention should be paid to the realization of peak - season demand and cost changes [24]. - **Tin**: Tight supply supports prices at a high level, but weakening demand in the second half of the year limits upward momentum, and price volatility may increase [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Powell's dovish speech increases the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting copper prices. Supply constraints remain due to low processing fees and reduced production guidance from some mines. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventory provides short - term support. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Alumina**: Smelters are profitable, and the operating capacity is at a high level, resulting in an oversupply situation. Inventory accumulation and increasing warehouse receipts put pressure on prices. The price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [5][9]. - **Aluminum**: The weakening US dollar and potential domestic stimulus policies affect prices. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is expected to improve with the approaching peak season, but the inventory reduction trend needs confirmation. The price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The short - term supply - demand balance is weak. Cost support is strong as scrap aluminum prices follow aluminum ingots. The price is expected to oscillate, and there is potential for price spreads to widen [11][14]. - **Zinc**: Rising expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a small rebound in prices. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. In the long term, supply is expected to remain in surplus, and prices may decline [14][15]. - **Lead**: Macro sentiment drives a small rebound in prices. Supply may tighten due to production cuts and transportation restrictions, and demand is recovering as some battery factories resume production. The price is expected to oscillate [16][18]. - **Nickel**: The equity market's strength supports short - term prices, but the market is mainly driven by sentiment. The fundamental situation is weakening, with potential for looser raw material supply and increasing intermediate product output. The price is expected to oscillate [19][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Declining warehouse receipts drive prices up. Attention should be paid to the realization of peak - season demand and cost changes. The price is expected to oscillate [24]. - **Tin**: Tight supply due to production disruptions in major producing regions supports prices. However, weakening demand in the second half of the year limits upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate, and volatility may increase [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this section.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Oscillating [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [6] - Lithium Carbonate: Oscillating with a Bullish Bias [8][10] Core Views of the Report - The new energy metals market is experiencing wide - amplitude oscillations at high levels due to repeated supply disruptions and capital games. In the short - term, the supply - demand of lithium carbonate may enter a phase of tightness, while silicon faces the risk of looser supply - demand, and cost increases support the prices of new energy metals. In the long - term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, and the price center may rise, while the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Information Analysis - As of August 25, the spot prices of oxygen - fed 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China were 9350 yuan/ton and 9600 yuan/ton respectively, with price fluctuations [5]. - The latest domestic inventory of industrial silicon was 437,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. Among them, the market inventory was 174,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%, and the factory inventory was 262,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% [5]. - As of July 2025, the monthly output of industrial silicon was 338,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 2.21 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% [5]. - In July, the export volume of industrial silicon was 74,006 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 414,711 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% [5]. - In June, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38.45%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07% [5]. Main Logic - The supply of industrial silicon continues to recover. In the southwest region, the resumption of production in silicon plants has accelerated significantly under the combined effect of the wet - season advantage and the rebound of silicon prices. At the end of the month, some large enterprises in Xinjiang resumed production after maintenance, bringing additional increments. In August, the release of southwest production capacity still has a large space, and the overall supply pressure may continue to rise [5]. - The demand has shown some signs of improvement. The resumption of production in polysilicon enterprises has driven the demand for industrial silicon to gradually recover. The organic silicon industry maintains the rhythm of rigid - demand procurement, and some enterprises still have a certain willingness to support prices. The aluminum alloy sector has stable production, with limited incremental support for demand [5]. - With the continuous recovery of supply - side production, social inventory and futures warehouse receipts are expected to further accumulate, and the risk of market pressure needs attention [5]. Outlook - In the short - term, the price of industrial silicon will continue to oscillate under the influence of macro - sentiment and coal prices. If large - scale enterprises resume production intensively, the price may be further suppressed [6]. 2. Polysilicon Information Analysis - According to the data of the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock polysilicon was 45,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.05% [6]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 6,730 lots, an increase of 190 lots compared with the previous value [6]. - In July, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 2,135.42 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.14%. From January to July 2025, the total export volume was 13,525.39 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25.15%. In July, the total import volume of polysilicon was about 1,169.56 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.11%. From January to July 2025, the total import volume was 12,379.34 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.08% [6]. - From January to July 2025, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 223.25GW, a year - on - year increase of 81%. In 2024, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to December was 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [6]. Main Logic - Macroscopically, the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has fluctuated. Recently, six departments jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium, strengthening policy expectations. However, the coal price has dropped recently, resulting in wide - amplitude oscillations in the polysilicon price [6][7]. - From the perspective of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity in the southwest region has increased. The polysilicon production capacity in Sichuan has rebounded, and it is expected that the polysilicon output will continue to rise in August on the basis of over 100,000 tons currently. In the medium - to - long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - cut - throat competition policies will restrict the supply of polysilicon [8]. - On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate increased significantly from January to May, with a cumulative growth rate of 150%, but it also over - drafted the installation demand in the second half of the year. The single - month domestic photovoltaic installation in June was only 14GW, and the installation volume in July further decreased. Considering the decline in photovoltaic installation in the second half of the year and the weakening of the demand for battery and component exports, the subsequent demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken [8]. - Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand of polysilicon, and the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has fluctuated, increasing the price volatility of polysilicon [8]. Outlook - The anti - cut - throat competition policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. If the policy expectations fade, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [8]. 3. Lithium Carbonate Information Analysis - On August 25, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.53% to 79,380 yuan compared with the previous day. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 804 lots to 788,716 lots [8]. - On August 25, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan to 82,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan to 80,200 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) on Flush was 910 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 77,100 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. On the same day, the warehouse receipts increased by 640 tons to 25,630 tons [9]. Main Logic - The first - wave emotional impact caused by the shutdown of the Jianxiakeng Mine has ended. The subsequent trading mainly focuses on two points: the manifestation of actual supply - demand shortages and the speculation of possible shutdowns of certain salt lakes and mica mines [9]. - Fundamentally, the supply - demand gap is gradually emerging. The weekly production of SMM has declined month - on - month, especially the production corresponding to mica has declined significantly, but there is some supplement from spodumene. The import of lithium carbonate in China decreased significantly in July, but it will recover in the fourth quarter according to shipping. Currently, the demand has not significantly exceeded expectations, the production schedule in August is relatively stable, and the demand in September, the peak season, is worth looking forward to, with attention focused on the production schedule. The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipts in August are gradually recovering [9]. - Overall, there is a gradually emerging supply - demand gap in the domestic market, but it should be noted that the current high price may stimulate the accelerated release of supply. The trading enthusiasm of capital has decreased, and attention should be paid to the risk of extreme price fluctuations caused by position closing, and opportunities for buying near - month contracts on dips or calendar spreads should be considered [9]. Outlook - The supply - demand gap caused by the shutdown is expected to keep the price oscillating with a bullish bias [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests investors should approach oil and chemical investments with a mindset of slightly bullish oscillations, awaiting the implementation of specific policies to address over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. The ratings for each variety are as follows: oil prices are expected to be slightly bearish with oscillations; asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, pure benzene, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate; LLDPE, PP, and PL are expected to oscillate in the short - term [7][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hardening of the US stance towards Russia is the main reason for the recent strengthening of crude oil prices. Meanwhile, the chemical sector continues to be strong, awaiting policy implementation. The polyester chain performs best, while the pure benzene and styrene chains underperform. Polyolefins saw a late - stage price increase, and ethylene glycol's low port inventory supports its price [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Amidst warming macro - sentiment and continuous geopolitical disturbances, oil prices rebounded slightly after stabilizing. However, with OPEC+ accelerating supply release, high US production, and the potential decline of high - operating refineries in China and the US, the rebound's sustainability is limited. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend, and short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations should be monitored [10]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term negative impacts of tariff hikes, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are outweighed by the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine, Middle - East, and US - Venezuela situations. The geopolitical premium for asphalt has resurfaced, supporting its cost. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined from its high, and the refinery's continuous return to operation has driven the spread down. The high premium of asphalt futures is supported, but its absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The short - term negative impacts are overshadowed by the escalation of geopolitical situations, and the geopolitical premium for high - sulfur fuel oil has returned. Although the increase in heavy - oil supply is more certain, factors such as the attack on Russian refineries, the attack on the Druzhba pipeline, and US sanctions on Chinese fuel - oil - importing enterprises have contributed to the price increase. The high cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil also supports its price. However, the price disturbance caused by geopolitical escalation is short - term, and changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation should be monitored [12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. Facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, its valuation is low. Fundamentally, the pressure on domestic refined - oil supply may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation, following the fluctuations of crude oil [13]. - **PX**: With the overall oscillation of crude oil prices and the strengthening of naphtha prices, there is still some support at the cost end. The new PTA production line has started production, and with the continuous improvement of terminal polyester and textile demand, the price of PX is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend under low - inventory conditions. It is recommended to buy on dips at the medium - term level, paying attention to the support at 6750 - 6800 [14]. - **PTA**: The new production line has started production, and the pattern of inventory reduction remains unchanged. There is short - term cost support and a favorable macro - sentiment. In the medium - term, the pattern is expected to improve in August - September, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the medium - term level, with support in the 4700 - 5000 range [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The recent positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks have weakened the support for oil prices. In Asia, South Korea plans to shut down and overhaul cracking units in October, and the naphtha inventory in the ARA hub has risen. The port inventory of pure benzene has continued to decline, but the decline rate has slowed. The market is trading on the expected increase in inventory pressure. In the short - term, it is driven by sentiment and may be slightly bullish. In the medium - term, if no specific de - capacity policies are implemented, it may return to the fundamental trading of inventory accumulation [16]. - **Styrene**: The direct sales to downstream have decreased, and the arrival of supplementary goods has increased, leading to inventory accumulation at the port and a price decline. With the news of de - capacity in China and South Korea, the prices of pure benzene and styrene have rebounded. In September - October, with more maintenance plans, the supply - demand situation may reverse, and it is possible to try to expand profits in the September - October period. Fundamentally, it is still bearish, but short - selling is against the trend in the short - term due to factors such as production - limit policies for the September parade, continuous release of macro - policies, and coal - mine safety accidents [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Despite high domestic supply pressure, the visible inventory has decreased month - on - month and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. According to the shipping and arrival schedules, the port inventory will continue to decline in early September. The short - term fundamentals are moderately positive, and the low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season provide good support. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the upper pressure at 4600, and the EG09 - 01 reverse - spread position should be held [20]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is waiting for cost guidance from upstream products. The upstream polymerization cost oscillates without obvious guidance, and the price of short - fiber oscillates within a range. Fundamentally, it has weakened slightly, and the production - sales ratio has slowed down. Without obvious positive demand stimuli, the processing fee is expected to remain in a low - level range. The absolute value of short - fiber follows the fluctuations of raw materials and oscillates in the short - term [21]. - **Bottle - Chip**: There is some cost support, but its own driving force is limited, and the processing fee is passively compressed. As the peak season ends, demand may weaken. Attention should be paid to the polyester factories' willingness to adjust their operating rates in September. The price oscillates, and the absolute value follows the fluctuations of raw materials [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short - term, it oscillates. The recent news of China's chemical - capacity policy has boosted the market sentiment, but the actual impact on methanol is limited. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for buying at low prices in the far - month can be monitored [27]. - **Urea**: The actual demand is insufficient, and the export release is slow. Without positive support under the unchanged fundamentals, the futures price is under pressure. Before the actual export release, the market is in a wait - and - see mode, and the futures price is expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of exports [25]. - **LLDPE**: The futures price has rebounded slightly. The news of domestic device overhauls to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry and the news of South Korean petrochemical capacity elimination have stimulated the price, but the actual impact is limited. The short - term oil price has rebounded slightly, and the macro - level still has capital games. The fundamentals of LLDPE are still under pressure, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, paying attention to the demand during the peak season [29]. - **PP**: The futures price oscillates. The news of domestic device overhauls and the expectation of South Korean petrochemical device elimination have stimulated the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price oscillates in the short - term, and the supply side of PP still has an increasing trend. The upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, with low operating rates in the plastic - weaving and injection - molding industries. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [31]. - **PL**: In the short - term, it follows the oscillation of PP. The short - term sentiment in the olefin sector has been boosted by the news from China and South Korea, but the downstream buying enthusiasm has decreased. The trading volume of propylene enterprises has decreased, and the price has moved down slightly. The short - term futures price follows the fluctuations of PP, and the polypropylene processing fee represented by PP - PL is the focus of the market [33]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has improved, and PVC has weakly stabilized. At the macro - level, there are expectations of anti - over - competition policies in China, and the probability of overseas interest - rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with stable costs. The upstream has started autumn maintenance, production has declined, downstream operating rates have changed little, and low - price purchases have increased. The anti - dumping policy may take effect within a month, and export expectations are under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the driving force coming from the improvement of market sentiment and the pressure from inventory accumulation [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price increase may slow down. At the macro - level, there are expectations of anti - over - competition policies in China, and the probability of overseas interest - rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the inventory replenishment demand from non - aluminum industries is approaching the end, and there is pressure from warehouse receipts in the near - month. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in the October contract at high prices. For the January contract, it is recommended to buy on dips because the expectations of alumina and MHP production cannot be falsified, and the high operating rate of alumina supports the demand for caustic soda [35]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, and others have different changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.52 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 8 with a change of - 4 [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of various varieties are provided. For example, the basis of asphalt is 8 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 72650 [38]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. have different changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 198 with a change of - 21 [40]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - This part provides data monitoring on the basis and spreads of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index), and sector index (energy index) are provided. For example, the commodity 20 index is 2486.32, up 0.97%, and the energy index on August 25, 2025, is 1226.46, up 0.84% for the day [281][283].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Overseas: After the global central bank summit, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has further strengthened, and overseas macro - monetary conditions are expected to become looser, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel. The recent rise in risk - asset prices is mainly driven by the easing of global risk expectations, the expectation of loose liquidity, and the decline of the dollar's central level, and the stage of rapid economic recovery is coming to an end. With the approach of subsequent important events and the increasing pressure of economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. - Domestic: In the short term, as China approaches important events in early September, the high - spirited market sentiment may continue. After these events, China will gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of the fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Although the current domestic economic fundamentals have weakened month - on - month, the difficulty of achieving the annual economic target is still not high, and market risk appetite may still be supported to some extent [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Powell's annual meeting speech was unexpectedly dovish, weakening inflation risks, emphasizing employment vulnerability, and returning to a dovish framework, which strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. The current fundamental expectation has weakened slightly month - on - month, but the absolute level remains resilient. US consumer confidence deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In July, new housing starts in the US increased steadily, while building permit issuance continued to decline [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The current domestic economic fundamentals have weakened month - on - month, but the difficulty of achieving the annual economic target is not high, and market risk appetite may still be supported. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real - estate policies. Under the background of a 90 - day further easing of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased. Although domestic demand such as consumption and investment has weakened month - on - month, the absolute level is still acceptable. The current capital market remains loose, and liquidity still supports relevant assets [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the short term, the high - spirited domestic market sentiment may continue until after important events. Then, the fundamentals will play a more important role in pricing assets, especially short - duration commodity assets. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has strengthened, and the macro - monetary environment will become looser. The recent rise in risk - asset prices is mainly driven by the easing of global risk expectations, the expectation of loose liquidity, and the decline of the dollar's central level. As subsequent important events approach and economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the growth main line and capital reallocation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend, and attention paid to the upward trend of volatility [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market remains under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend, and attention paid to unexpected tariff changes, unexpected supply changes, and unexpected monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of an interest rate cut in September in the US is expanding, which is beneficial to prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of the US fundamentals, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is turning to the off - season, and there is a lack of upward driving force. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The off - season is coming to an end, and attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, and molten iron production. The expectation of an interest rate cut has led to a slight increase in ore prices, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, changes in ore inventory at ports, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Seven rounds of price increases have been implemented, and the expectation of production restriction still exists. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has increased slightly, and coal mines have slightly accumulated inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost support still exists, and supply and demand are becoming more relaxed. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Prices in Hubei have continued to decline, and the delivery logic suppresses the market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Spot prices have continued to fall, and production and sales have improved slightly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to spot production and sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply and demand remain in excess, and inventory continues to accumulate. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [7]. - **Copper**: Sino - US tariff suspension has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed's less - than - expected dovish stance, unexpected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disturbances, and unexpected weak demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black series have fallen, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel market has corrected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [7]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply remains tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The game between long and short positions continues, and prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected weak demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [9]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the progress of cost - side factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical premiums have emerged again, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical premiums have returned, and high - sulfur fuel oil prices are oscillating upward. The short - term judgment is an upward trend, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating following crude oil. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory has accumulated, but petrochemical news has provided short - term support, and methanol prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to macro - energy factors and the dynamics of upstream and downstream devices [9]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Low inventory and peak - season expectations resonate, providing strong support for prices at the lower end. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations of coal and oil prices, the rhythm of port inventory, and unexpected device shutdowns [9]. - **PX**: Emotional stimulation and peak - season promotion are driving the market. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - level abnormalities, and the failure of the peak season to meet expectations [9]. - **PTA**: Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction from August to October. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - level abnormalities, and the failure of the peak season to meet expectations [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device load reductions [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Inventory has decreased, and the processing margin is under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected increases in the production load of bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders [9]. - **Propylene**: In the short term, it mainly follows the fluctuations of PP. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [9]. - **PP**: News related to Zhonghan Petrochemical has stimulated the market, but the fundamental support is limited. PP prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Plastic**: News of anti - internal competition in the petrochemical industry has boosted the market, and plastic prices have strengthened slightly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Styrene**: The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has been boosted, and PVC prices have weakly stabilized. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The rebound of spot prices has slowed down, and long positions in the near - month contracts should take profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected monthly increase in Malaysian palm oil production in August has led to oscillating and consolidating prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the weather conditions of US soybeans and the production and demand data of Malaysian palm oil [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Point - price orders are providing support, and prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the weather conditions of US soybeans, domestic demand, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Sentiment is weak, and both futures and spot prices remain weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected weak demand, the macro - situation, and weather conditions [9]. - **Hogs**: State reserve purchases have affected market sentiment, and futures prices have rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices have returned to a moderately strong oscillating trend. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the weather conditions in production areas, raw material prices, and macro - level changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market is oscillating moderately strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [9]. - **Pulp**: There are not many changes, and prices are moving within a range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: With the implementation of quotas, cotton prices have rebounded with increased positions. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to imports [9]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and it is recommended to try long positions in far - month contracts at low prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to shipment volume and dispatch volume [9].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds was 69.9%, and 298.6 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds had been issued in August [4][5]. - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 73.2%, and 47.1 billion yuan of new general bonds had been issued in August [9][24]. - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 70.4%, and the net financing scale of local government bonds this week was 208.8 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 222.5 billion yuan [12]. - As of August 24, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 73.2%, and the net financing scale of treasury bonds this week was 352.6 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 138 billion yuan [16][18]. - As of August 24, the net financing of treasury bonds plus the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 72.0% [20]. Detailed Data New Special-Purpose Bonds - This week, 239.3 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 220.2 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - This week, 9.5 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week-on-week decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Sudan and South Sudan are both under - developed countries. Sudan has a weak industrial base with agriculture as the main economic pillar, while South Sudan has almost no large - scale industrial production and depends entirely on imports for industrial products and daily necessities [2]. - The two countries are rich in natural resources. As of early 2024, the combined proven crude oil reserves are estimated at 5 billion barrels, and the combined proven natural gas reserves are estimated at 3 trillion cubic feet. After South Sudan's independence in 2011, 75% of the original Sudan's oil reserves were allocated to the south, leading to a significant reduction in Sudan's oil production [2]. - Sudan is currently in an armed conflict with the Rapid Support Forces, and South Sudan has intense domestic political struggles with the political transition period extended several times [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Overview 3.1.1 Geographical Location - Sudan is located in northeastern Africa, on the western coast of the Red Sea, bordering Egypt to the north, Libya, Chad, and the Central African Republic to the west, South Sudan to the south, and Ethiopia and Eritrea to the east [8]. - South Sudan is an inland country in northeastern Africa, bordering Ethiopia to the east, Kenya, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the south, the Central African Republic to the west, and Sudan to the north [8]. 3.1.2 Economic Overview - **Sudan**: In 2024, the population was about 49.4 million. It is one of the least developed countries in the world. The economy was once boosted by oil exports but was severely affected by South Sudan's independence in 2011 and the armed conflict in 2023. In 2024, the GDP was 29.7 billion US dollars, and the per - capita GDP was only 594 US dollars. The main economic pillar is agriculture, and it also has some industries such as oil, textile, and sugar - making. The total foreign trade volume in 2024 was 8.04 billion US dollars [12][13]. - **South Sudan**: In 2024, the population was about 15.9 million. It is also a least - developed country, with the economy highly dependent on oil, accounting for about 90% of government fiscal revenue. In 2024, the GDP was about 5.27 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 26.7%, and the per - capita GDP was about 331 US dollars. It has almost no large - scale industrial production and depends on imports [14]. 3.1.3 Historical Politics - **Sudan**: It has a long history. It was part of ancient Egypt from 2800 BC to 1000 BC. After a series of historical changes, it became independent in 1956. Since 2023, it has been in an armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces [15][16]. - **South Sudan**: It became independent in 2011. Since 2013, there have been armed conflicts between the government and the opposition, and the political transition period has been extended several times [16]. 3.2 Oil and Other Liquids - As of early 2024, the combined proven crude oil reserves of Sudan and South Sudan were estimated at 5 billion barrels, unchanged from the previous year. The main producing areas are the Muglad Basin and the Melut Basin, and they produce three types of crude oil blends: Dar, Nile, and Fula [17]. - In 2023, Sudan's average daily production of liquid fuels was about 70,000 barrels, and South Sudan's was about 149,000 barrels. Sudan's production has been decreasing due to insufficient upstream exploration, while South Sudan's has grown relatively steadily [20]. - Sudan has 3 refineries and 3 topping units, but most are shut down. South Sudan's Bentiu refinery started commercial operation in 2021, and it plans to build more refineries [23]. 3.3 Natural Gas - As of early 2024, the combined proven natural gas reserves of Sudan and South Sudan were estimated at 3 trillion cubic feet, unchanged from the previous year. Neither country produces or consumes natural gas [24]. 3.4 Coal - Sudan and South Sudan do not produce or consume coal [25]. 3.5 Electricity 3.5.1 Sudan - In 2021, the total installed capacity was 4.5 GW, with about half from fossil fuels, about 43% from hydropower, and the rest from renewable energy. In 2020, the total power generation was 16.6 billion kWh, with 60% from hydropower [26]. - The power transmission and distribution network mainly serves major power - consuming centers like Khartoum and is concentrated in the more densely populated eastern region. Only about 62% of the population had access to electricity in 2021, with a higher urban access rate (84%) than rural (49%) [26]. - The government is committed to diversifying the power mix and has prioritized investment in thermal power in recent years [26]. 3.5.2 South Sudan - In 2021, the total installed capacity was 0.12 GW, almost entirely from fossil fuels, and the total power generation was 600 million kWh, also almost entirely from fossil fuels. Only about 8% of the population had access to electricity in 2021 [29]. - In June 2023, Uganda and South Sudan signed an agreement allowing South Sudan to import electricity from Uganda, and they are conducting a feasibility study on an inter - connected transmission line [30]. 3.6 Energy Trade 3.6.1 Oil and Other Liquids - The main export products of Sudan and South Sudan are Nile and Dar crude oil blends, which are sold to the Asian market. The average daily export volume of crude oil from 2014 - 2023 was about 145,000 barrels, and it decreased due to the decline in total production. In 2023, the export volume was about 125,000 barrels per day, with the UAE being the largest destination country [31][36]. 3.6.2 Natural Gas and Coal - Sudan and South Sudan do not participate in natural gas or coal trade and have no relevant imports or exports [38][39].

General Information - Report title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 34, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] New Special Bond Issuance - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new special bonds reached 69.9% [4] - This week, new special bonds worth 239.3 billion yuan were issued, a week - on - week increase of 220.2 billion yuan [4] - As of August 24, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in August was 29.86 billion yuan [5] New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bonds worth 9.5 billion yuan were issued, a week - on - week decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [7] - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new general bonds reached 73.2% [9] - As of August 24, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in August was 4.71 billion yuan [24] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 208.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 222.5 billion yuan [12] - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new local bonds reached 70.4% [12] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 352.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 138 billion yuan [16] - As of August 24, the net financing progress of treasury bonds reached 73.2% [18] Combined Progress - As of August 24, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance reached 72.0% [20]

i期货有限公司 小品种钢材周度数据 2025年08月25日 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 - 维码 状战里多夜叶员 万吨- 2025 - 2024 -- 2023 万吨 2025 - 2024 -- 2023 万吨 2025 - 2024 -- 2023 万吨- 2025 - 2024 -- 2023 万吨 2025 - 2024 -- 2023 研究员: | 余典 | | 陶存辉 | | 薛原 | | | 冉宇蒙 | | 钟宏 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | | 从业资格号 F03099559 | | | 从业资格号 F03100815 | | 从业资格号 F03144159 | | | 从业资格号:F03118246 | | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | | | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0022727 | | ...

Group 1: Core Views - In an environment where the main investment theme is unclear or rotates rapidly, the excess return of the securities index serves as a vane in an upward market [1] - After the 0924 market, the trend of the securities excess return is similar to that of the CSI 800, which can be used as an auxiliary indicator for position adjustment [1]