Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights increased volatility in the metals sector due to intensified capital competition, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [2][5]. - The report suggests that the precious metals sector is poised for recovery, driven by central bank gold purchases and a favorable long-term outlook for gold prices [4][24]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to see price increases due to stable supply-demand dynamics and significant infrastructure investments [4][48]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62%. In contrast, the non-ferrous metals index rose by 3.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.29 percentage points [5][8]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 22.59%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 20.94 percentage points [9]. Price Changes - The report details price fluctuations for various metals, with copper prices increasing by 0.32% and aluminum prices decreasing by 0.79% week-on-week [16]. - Precious metals saw significant price changes, with gold prices down by 1.52% and silver prices down by 17.44% [16]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories in domestic markets decreased by 0.7 million tons, while exchange inventories increased by 2.5 million tons [33]. - Aluminum social inventories totaled 102.55 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.05 million tons [49]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Precious Metals**: The report emphasizes the potential for gold prices to rise due to increased central bank purchases and a favorable economic outlook [24]. - **Industrial Metals**: Copper demand is expected to remain strong, supported by infrastructure investments and a stable supply chain [4][33]. - **Aluminum**: The report notes a decrease in the operating rates of downstream processing enterprises, indicating potential supply constraints [48]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, highlighting companies such as Huafeng Aluminum and Baowu Magnesium [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Insights - The supply and demand expectations for lithium and cobalt are reversing, indicating the start of a new price cycle [2][3] - Lithium demand is expected to recover, leading to a replenishment cycle, while supply disruptions will create a medium-term gap [2] - Cobalt supply is dominated by export quotas from sovereign nations, leading to a raw material shortage that supports prices [3] Summary by Sections Lithium - Supply disruptions from African lithium projects and stable production from South American salt lakes are expected, while China's regulatory management will lead to a temporary supply contraction of lithium mica [2] - Demand for lithium is driven by the growth of energy storage as a second growth driver after electric vehicles, with solid-state batteries opening up potential for increased lithium consumption [2] - From the second half of 2025, supply disruptions in Jiangxi and strong downstream demand will lead to a price rebound for lithium, maintaining a tight supply situation through 2026-2027 [2] Cobalt - The supply side is significantly influenced by the export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, resulting in a definitive raw material shortage [3] - Demand for cobalt products is currently weak due to high prices, and the recovery of demand hinges on the adoption of solid-state batteries [3] - The Congolese government has a strong ability and willingness to support prices, with expectations for cobalt prices to remain strong in the medium term [3] Investment Strategy - In an upward cycle, it is essential to consider the self-reinforcing attributes of stock prices and commodity prices, alongside fundamental factors [4] - The interplay between stock prices, futures, and spot prices creates a positive feedback loop, where stock prices often react first to anticipated changes [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended lithium-related stocks include Yongxing Materials, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium, among others [5] - Recommended cobalt-related stocks include Huayou Cobalt and others [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the value enhancement of the company, driven by the upward price cycle of copper and gold, the company's leading position in the domestic copper mining industry, and its strategic shift towards a "copper + gold" valuation model [1][4] - The company has exceeded its copper production guidance for 2025, achieving a total copper output of 740,000 tons, significantly above the initial guidance of 600,000 to 660,000 tons, with plans to further increase production in 2026 [2][5] - The company is actively expanding its gold segment, having recently acquired 100% equity in gold mining assets in Brazil, which is expected to contribute 6-8 tons of gold production in 2026 [3][5] Summary by Sections Copper and Gold Price Outlook - The report anticipates a bullish trend for both copper and gold prices, with expectations for copper prices to exceed $15,000 per ton from 2025 to 2028, driven by limited supply growth and increasing demand [4][5] - The report highlights that global central banks may continue to increase their gold reserves, supporting long-term price increases for gold [4] Production and Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 204 billion, RMB 324 billion, and RMB 361 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting adjustments of +6%, +26%, and +27% respectively [5][11] - The target price for the company's A shares is set at RMB 35.83 and HKD 33.95 for H shares, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.7x for 2026 [5][7] Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic copper mining sector, with a strong growth trajectory and a strategic focus on diversifying into gold mining [1][3] - The report compares the company's valuation favorably against peers, maintaining a premium due to its growth potential and market leadership [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Hongqiao [9]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has cooled, leading to a general decline in metal prices, particularly in precious metals where silver and gold experienced significant drops [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply constraints in the copper market, with major mining companies reducing their production forecasts due to capacity limitations [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with demand anticipated to recover as the peak season approaches [3]. - Nickel prices have shown volatility, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-side cost pressures, with expectations of limited downside due to rising production costs [4]. - Tin prices are supported by macroeconomic factors and supply chain bottlenecks, although demand remains weak ahead of the Chinese New Year [5]. - Lithium prices have retreated from highs due to regulatory impacts and market liquidity tightening, but there is expected support from supply-side maintenance and pre-holiday stocking [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Significant declines in silver and gold prices were noted, with silver dropping 36% and gold falling over 12% in a single day [1]. - Companies to watch include Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories increased globally, with a notable rise in U.S. stocks, while Chinese inventories decreased [2]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2]. - Aluminum production is stable, but demand is fluctuating due to seasonal factors and geopolitical issues [3]. - Nickel prices fell by 5.4% due to macroeconomic sentiment, with supply-side cost pressures expected to limit further declines [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping 5.6% to 160,000 CNY/ton [5]. - The report indicates that companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium should be monitored [5]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have stabilized, with a slight increase in electrolytic cobalt prices [8]. - Companies to focus on include Huayou Cobalt and Liyuan Resources [8]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced a significant acquisition of a gold mining company, which could enhance its resource base [36]. - Huayou Cobalt signed a cooperation agreement for an integrated battery supply chain project in Indonesia [36]. - Tianqi Lithium reported progress on its lithium production expansion project [36].

证券研究报告 2月十大金股推荐 1 ※ 核心观点 我们认为当前仍处于市场流动性偏宽的环境中，叠加高频景气跟踪与上市公司业绩预告均显示基本面有结构性亮点， 因此继续看好权益市场延续震荡向上趋势。方向上，建议重点关注：一是内外需共振景气向上、成长预期较好的科技 制造板块（AI/半导体/存储/风电等）；二是受益于产品涨价预期的周期板块（有色金属/化工等）；三是业绩有望筑 底改善的行业（建材/免税等）；四是部分绩优红利资产（保险等）。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 备注：本篇报告数据统计截至2026/1/29 平安证券研究所 2026年1月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2 证券代码 证券名称 申万一级行业 总市值 PE PB 推荐逻辑 （亿元人民币） (TTM) (MRQ) 300223.SZ 北京君正 电子 662 208.6 5.3 存储周期上行，L3智能驾驶催化汽车电子 603005.SH 晶方科技 电子 201 58.9 4.4 WLCSP先进封装领先企业，受益车规CIS需求扩张 688041.SH 海光信息 电子 6,073 256.6 27.7 国产算力领先企业，业绩持续增长可期 688615. ...

Group 1 - February macro outlook indicates a favorable macro environment for equity markets, with expectations of strong economic and credit data at the beginning of the year [7][9] - The strategy outlook suggests a transition in market styles, with a focus on growth "rest" and a continued bullish stance while adjusting portfolio structures [9][10] - The quantitative strategy emphasizes investing in small-cap stocks and taking long positions before the Spring Festival [10] Group 2 - The February gold stock selection includes companies from various sectors: - Electronics: Shiyun Circuit, Shengkong Co. - Consumer Electronics: Baiwei Storage - Computing: Yunsai Zhiliang - Communication: Kexin Innovation Source - Non-ferrous Metals: Shengtun Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum - Machinery: Zhonglian Heavy Industry - Coal: Huaibei Mining - Non-bank Financials: Dongfang Securities [12][14] - The rationale for selected stocks includes: - Shiyun Circuit is expected to benefit from emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and intelligent driving, potentially leading to significant growth [13] - Shengkong Co. is positioned to gain from the semiconductor cycle, with demand driven by AI and storage needs [17] - Baiwei Storage is set to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom, with a focus on domestic market share growth [20] - Yunsai Zhiliang is anticipated to see increased demand for cloud services and IDC, driven by AI advancements [22] - Kexin Innovation Source is expected to achieve breakthroughs in the AI liquid cooling market, enhancing revenue and profitability [26] - Shengtun Mining is projected to improve profitability through copper price increases and strategic acquisitions [31] - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to benefit from increased copper and cobalt production, alongside new gold mining projects [35] - Zhonglian Heavy Industry is positioned for growth through diversification in machinery sectors and global expansion [40] - Huaibei Mining is highlighted for its high elasticity in coking coal, with price improvements expected in 2026 [46] - Dongfang Securities is set to benefit from regulatory support and potential mergers, enhancing its market position [49]

Group 1 - The U.S. is experiencing a significant cold wave affecting 22 states, leading the Department of Homeland Security to advise against using the term "ICE" in weather forecasts to avoid negative associations with the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency [4] - The term "ICE" has dual meanings, referring both to ice and the immigration enforcement agency, which has a poor public image [4] - This situation reflects a broader internal division within American society, where different factions are increasingly hostile towards each other, causing major issues to become contentious [5] Group 2 - The U.S. has adopted the "Indo-Pacific Strategy," initiated by the Trump administration in 2017, which emphasizes India's role as a key partner in regional security and economic cooperation [9] - Major U.S. corporations, including General Motors, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple, have heavily invested in India, indicating strong corporate support for the country [10][11] - The media narrative has shifted to portray India as a rising power, often referred to as "the next China," highlighting its potential as a destination for investment and innovation [12] Group 3 - Despite the optimistic outlook, many U.S. companies have faced significant challenges in India, with General Motors incurring a loss of $1 billion before deciding to exit the market [16] - The average time to close a factory in India is reported to be 4.3 years, which is significantly longer than in other countries, indicating operational difficulties [17] - Over 2,000 multinational companies have paused their operations in India in recent years, suggesting a trend of disillusionment with the Indian market [18] Group 4 - India's manufacturing sector has not met expectations, with the "Make in India" initiative failing to deliver significant results, as evidenced by a 96.5% drop in net foreign direct investment (FDI) to $353 million for the fiscal year 2024-2025 [21][22] - In contrast, U.S. FDI in India remains substantial, with a stock of $54.76 billion as of September 2024, indicating continued American interest despite challenges [23] - Companies like Ford are planning to re-enter the Indian market, and tech giants are investing in India's digital infrastructure, showing a complex relationship between optimism and reality [24][25] Group 5 - The article contrasts India with Africa, highlighting that both regions share similar challenges in industrialization and infrastructure development, but Africa is seen as having greater potential due to its vast resources and younger population [31][35] - Africa's population is projected to grow significantly, with the labor force expected to increase dramatically by 2050, presenting a potential advantage over India [35] - The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is establishing a unified market, with intra-African trade expected to grow significantly, further enhancing Africa's economic prospects [41][42] Group 6 - The article emphasizes that while both India and Africa face industrialization challenges, Africa's resource wealth and emerging market potential position it as a "super growth pole" [48] - U.S. investment strategies appear to be shifting towards India as a counterbalance to China's influence in Africa, despite the latter's advantages [81] - The narrative suggests that the U.S. is increasingly focusing on India due to its geopolitical significance, while simultaneously losing ground in Africa [81]

Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On January 30, international gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling from a peak of $5,450 per ounce to below $5,000, marking a maximum decline of 8% [1] - Concurrently, international silver prices also plummeted, with spot silver dropping below $100, experiencing a decline of over 17% [3] Group 2: Impact on A-Share Market - The A-share gold concept sector faced a "limit down" wave, with multiple companies such as Yunnan Copper, Jiangxi Copper, and Zhongjin Gold hitting the trading limit [5] - Specific stock performances included Shandong Gold and Sichuan Gold both declining by 10% [7] Group 3: Jewelry and Retail Market Reaction - Several gold jewelry brands significantly reduced their prices, with quotes for 24K gold jewelry dropping to around 1,620 to 1,685 yuan per gram, down from over 1,700 yuan [12] - In Beijing, gold buyback prices were adjusted downwards by nearly 70 yuan per gram within a single day, causing hesitation among sellers [12][13] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Analyst Views - Analyst Dan Bin expressed a bearish outlook on gold and silver, suggesting that extreme price increases often lead to sharp declines [15] - Historical patterns indicate that gold prices have previously experienced significant volatility, with analysts noting that market conditions such as U.S. economic performance and geopolitical risks will influence future price movements [16] Group 5: Global Gold Demand Trends - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is projected to reach 5,002 tons by 2025, driven by investment demand and geopolitical uncertainties [18] - In 2025, global gold ETF demand is expected to increase significantly, with North American funds contributing the majority of the growth [19] - China's gold investment demand is also anticipated to remain strong, with a notable increase in gold bar and coin purchases [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals and new materials industry, indicating a high cost-performance investment stage with potential for sustained growth [1][5]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a significant increase, with the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index rising by 94.73% in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 77.07 percentage points [1][13]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between major powers like the US and China, are expected to continue impacting the stability of the metal supply chain, leading to increased raw material costs and upward price pressures on strategic metals [2][30]. - The demand outlook for non-ferrous metals remains strong, driven by emerging industries such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence, which require high-performance materials [4][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing a transformation due to supply constraints and changing demand dynamics, with certain metals reaching new price highs [1][2]. - The industry is positioned for growth, supported by favorable policies and a robust demand from new technologies [24][25]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are particularly favorable in precious metals, copper, and strategic metals, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in high-growth sectors [3][5]. - Key companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Northern Rare Earth [5]. Emerging Trends - The rapid expansion of new industries is creating a strategic demand for upstream materials, which are now subject to stricter performance and purity standards [4][34]. - The shift towards electric vehicles and renewable energy is expected to sustain high demand for metals like lithium, copper, and rare earth elements [36][42]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the tightening supply of strategic metals due to increased global regulatory controls, which is expected to lead to a supply-demand imbalance [31][32]. - The copper market is particularly noted for its supply constraints and increasing demand, with a significant reliance on imports to meet domestic needs [46][47]. Future Outlook - The profitability outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to improve, with potential for continued price increases in copper, aluminum, and gold, driven by strong industrial demand and macroeconomic conditions [15][30].

行 业 有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2026/01/16-2026/01/29） 金属价格高位震荡，有色板块分化加剧 2026 年 1 月 30 日 S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 行 业 研 究 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 投资要点： 申万有色金属行业指数走势 贵金属。黄金方面，近期在地缘局势扰动以及资金涌入等推动下，黄金价格 再度上行。短期需重点关注避险情绪退却、投机资金退出等风险。截至1月29 日，COMEX黄金价格收于5410.80美元/盎司，较1月初上涨1068.9美元，COMEX 白银价格收于115.79元/盎司，较1月初上涨44.81美元，上海黄金交易所黄金 Au（T+D）价格收于1243.40元/克，较1月初上涨269.01元。建议关注紫金矿 业（601899）。 工业金属。在全球降息周期开启的大背景下，有色金属价格屡创新高。随着 主流工业金属铜、锡等供需格局加快转好，以及工业金属补涨贵金属的机会 仍存，工业金属价格有望进一步上行。截至1月29日，LME铜价收于1370 ...