贵金属周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 2025 年 12 月 22 日 铂钯强势运行，波动可能加剧 核心观点及策略 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周铂钯价格接棒金银价格表现强劲，且国内铂、钯价格 走势强于外盘，特别是广期所钯期货主力合约在上周三、 周四均冲击涨停，周度涨幅高达23.3%，铂金期货主力合 约周度涨幅达18%，远高于白银期货涨幅，而国际金价维 持高位震荡偏强走势。 ⚫ 上周公布的美国通胀超预期放缓，强化美联储降息预期。 但也有经济学家怀疑政府关门导致数据失真。美联储主席 遴选进程仍在持续，目前候选名单已缩小至四人。上周五 日本央行加息25个基点至0.75%，早 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract dropped 26.75 to close at 1059.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.46%; the May bean粕 contract fell 35 to close at 2735 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.26%; the South China bean粕 spot price closed at 3060 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week; the May rapeseed粕 contract dropped 24 to close at 2323 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.02%; the Guangxi rapeseed粕 spot price fell 30 to close at 2470 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.20% [3][6]. - Favorable weather conditions in South America have strengthened the expectation of a bumper harvest. Brazil's soybean harvesting will start in January, increasing supply. The overall progress of US soybean export sales is slow, heightening concerns about exports and potentially leading to a downward adjustment of export forecasts. As a result, US soybeans have been weakening, filling the gap from the sharp jump at the end of October. In China, the enthusiasm for imported soybean auctions has cooled, and combined with the decline in import costs, bean粕 prices have fallen this week [3][6]. - South American crops are expected to have a bumper harvest. Brazil's soybean harvesting will start in January, and export supply will increase in February. China's pace of purchasing US soybeans has slowed compared to earlier, and the overall progress of US soybean export sales is slow, causing the outer - market prices to continue to decline. Last week, the imported soybean auction cooled. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction results. There is still supply in the spot market, and downstream buyers are mainly replenishing stocks on a rolling basis. However, the supply of imported soybeans will decrease in the first quarter, and with the expectation of holiday stocking, there is support for spot prices. It is expected that the main contract of Dalian bean粕 will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price dropped from 1086.25 to 1059.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.46%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased from 490 to 474 dollars per ton, a decline of 3.27%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell from 491 to 476 dollars per ton, a decline of 3.05%; the Brazilian soybean crushing margin on the futures market increased from - 110.17 to - 80.72 yuan per ton; the DCE bean粕 price dropped from 2770 to 2735 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.26%; the CZCE rapeseed粕 price fell from 2347 to 2323 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.02%; the price difference between bean粕 and rapeseed粕 decreased from 423 to 412 yuan per ton; the East China spot price of bean粕 dropped from 3080 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.65%; the South China spot price of bean粕 remained unchanged at 3060 yuan per ton; the spot - futures price difference in South China increased from 290 to 325 yuan per ton [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week ending November 27, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 110.6 million tons, down from 232.1 million tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of current - year US soybeans was 2183 million tons, with a sales progress of 49.1%, compared to 70.9% last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans that week was 50.9 million tons, with a cumulative purchase of 301.5 million tons and an unshipped volume of 301.5 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.33 dollars per bushel, down from 2.45 dollars per bushel the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein bean粕 at Illinois soybean processing plants was 311.2 dollars per short ton, down from 320.87 dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 49.67 cents per pound, down from 50.37 cents per pound the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.77 dollars per bushel, down from 10.95 dollars per bushel the previous week [7]. - The NOPA monthly report showed that the US soybean crushing volume in November was 216.041 million bushels, a 5.1% decrease from October and an 11.8% increase from the same period last year. As of November 30, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies was 1.513 billion pounds, a 15.9% increase from the end of October and a 39.6% increase from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season was 94.1%, up from 90.3% the previous week and lower than 96.8% last year. Brazil's soybean exports in December are expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. As of the week ending December 17, 2025, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 67.3%, up from 58.6% the previous week and lower than 76.6% last year [8]. - The weather forecast for South American soybean - growing regions shows that in the next 15 days, precipitation in the southern Brazilian soybean - growing regions will increase significantly, while precipitation in the central - western regions will be slightly lower than normal. Overall, the conditions for crop growth and development are good. Precipitation in the Argentine growing regions will be higher than the average [8]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3948 million tons, an increase of 239,600 tons from the previous week and 1.3807 million tons from the same period last year; the bean粕 inventory was 1.0969 million tons, a decrease of 65,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 456,700 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 5.7202 million tons, a decrease of 600,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.2002 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 9.162 million tons, a decrease of 208,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.3615 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the average daily trading volume of bean粕 nationwide was 121,260 tons, including 50,940 tons of spot trading and 70,320 tons of forward trading, down from 182,400 tons the previous week. The average daily pick - up volume of bean粕 was 181,500 tons, down from 194,500 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.1306 million tons, up from 2.0375 million tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean粕 in feed enterprises were 9.23 days, up from 9.13 days the previous week [9]. Industry News - The AgRural agency reported that as of last Thursday, the sown area of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season had reached 97% of the expected area, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. Most regions had good rainfall last week, and the weather forecast indicates more rainfall and favorable temperatures in the coming days [11]. - The Secex agency reported that Brazil exported 1.65022058 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of December, with an average daily export volume of 165,022.06 tons, a 73% increase from the average daily export volume in December last year. The total export volume in December last year was 2.0060892 million tons [11]. - Data from the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) showed that in October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.36 million tons of bean粕 and 900,000 tons of soybean oil. The ending inventory of soybeans at oil mills was 11.265 million tons, the ending inventory of bean粕 was 2.51 million tons, and the ending inventory of soybean oil was 490,000 tons [11]. - According to the European Commission, as of December 14, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 1.4 million tons, down from 1.5 million tons last year; soybean imports were 5.6 million tons, down from 6.5 million tons last year; bean粕 imports were 8.3 million tons, down from 9.2 million tons last year; and rapeseed imports were 1.7 million tons, down from 2.8 million tons last year [12]. - A commodity research estimated that the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production would remain at 46.9 million tons, with an estimated range of 45.8 - 48.1 million tons. However, the delayed sowing, decreasing soil moisture in the Pampas region, and long - term weather prospects require attention. The estimated planted area is 16.7 million hectares, slightly higher than the Rosario Exchange's report of 16.4 million hectares but lower than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's report of 17.6 million hectares [12]. - The Deral agency estimated that the 2025/26 soybean production in Paraná state would be 21.96 million tons, the same as the November estimate. If the estimate is correct, the state's soybean output will increase by 4% compared to the previous year. The agricultural department of Rio Grande do Sul state reported that the sowing rate of soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 89%, a 13 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The rainfall ensured soil moisture and was beneficial to the sown crops. The sowing rate exceeded the historical average of 88% but was lower than 91% in the same period last year [13].

2025 年 12 月 22 日 美联储降息预期保持较高 铝价偏强震荡 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，宏观面美国11月非农及CPI皆低于预 期，偏弱的就业数据和回落的通胀提升美联储降息 预期，目前市场定价3月和7月各一次降息。但政府关 门导致市场对11月美通胀数据存疑。基本面供应端 国内及印尼新增产能继续释放增量，国内铝水比例 小幅下降，供应小增。消费端数据中心和储能板块年 末贡献消费增量，整体消费仍具韧性，周度开工率仅 小幅下滑。社会库存出库保持高位，铝锭库存较上周 减少0.6万吨至57.8万吨，铝棒库存12 ...

Report Date - The report is dated December 22, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The market slightly raised the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates as expected. After the important macro - events were settled, the market's cautious sentiment improved [3][6][7] - The LME plans to implement new position limit rules in July 2026, which has accelerated the delivery of stocks by holders, leading to a significant increase in LME inventories and dragging down the prices of lead both at home and abroad [3][6][7] - The processing fee of lead concentrate remains at a low level, and the off - season of terminal battery consumption affects the battery scrap volume. The price of waste batteries remains firm, providing cost support [3][6] - Korea Zinc plans to set up a new lead smelter in the United States, which will increase overseas supply in the medium - to - long term. There is a strike risk at Australian smelters, and its impact needs continuous attention [3][6] - In China, there are both production cuts and restarts in primary lead production. Environmental inspections in Hunan have affected local smelter operations, while some smelters in East China will restart at the end of December. Smelters in Yunnan have restarted, and the first batch of lead - zinc from the Huoshaoyun project has arrived, which is expected to contribute to continuous growth [3][6] - Environmental controls in Anhui and North China have hindered the transportation of waste batteries, causing some local smelters to cut or stop production, dragging down the operation rate of secondary lead smelters [3][6] - The boost effect of the new national standard for electric bicycles is average. Poor vehicle demand has dragged down battery demand, and some enterprises plan to reduce production. However, the demand for automobile starting batteries is in the peak season, supporting the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises [3][6][7] - Overall, affected by the change in LME position - holding system, the accelerated delivery of stocks on the LME has dragged down the lead price. However, due to environmental impacts in many places, the production cuts of secondary lead smelters have increased, and the demand remains resilient. The social inventory is maintained at a low level for the year, providing support for the lead price. It is expected that the short - term futures price will fluctuate weakly and steadily, and continuous attention should be paid to the changes in LME inventories [3][7] Summary by Directory Trading Data | Contract | December 12 | December 19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17125 | 16880 | - 245 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1966 | 1984.5 | 18.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.71 | 8.51 | - 0.20 | | | SHFE Inventory | 32227 | 27875 | - 4352 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 234750 | 258625 | 23875 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 2.05 | 2.05 | 0 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 75 | - 70 | 5 | Yuan/ton | [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures changed to PB2602. The price hit the bottom and then rebounded. In the first half of the week, the increasing LME inventory dragged down the lead prices both at home and abroad. In the second half of the week, the inventory growth slowed down, and the futures price stabilized and weakly rebounded. It finally closed at 16880 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.55%. The LME lead price first declined and then rose, finally closing at 1984.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.94% [5] - In the spot market, as of December 19, the price of Southern lead in Shanghai was reported at 16925 - 16950 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2601 contract; the price of Jiangtong lead in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was reported at 16905 - 16925 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2601 contract. After the Shanghai lead price hit the bottom and rebounded, holders sold their goods according to the market. Due to the end - of - year period, most holders actively cleared their inventories, resulting in less available spot goods. The inventory of refiner - delivered electrolytic lead also decreased significantly, and some quotes turned to discounts again. Downstream enterprises had mostly stocked up at low prices, and their inquiry enthusiasm weakened today, with only a few making purchases as needed [5] Industry News - As of the week ending December 19, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining flat compared to the previous period [8] - Recently, the first batch of lead ingots from the 600,000 - ton/year lead - zinc smelting project of Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead - Zinc Mine, EPC - contracted by China ENFI Engineering Corporation, was officially launched. This project is the world's largest oxidized ore processing production line. After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 560,000 tons of zinc ingots and 110,000 tons of lead ingots [8] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the average lead price in 2026 will be slightly higher than 2,000 US dollars per ton [8]

锌周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2025 年 12 月 22 日 海外加速交仓 锌价承压震荡 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价承压回落。宏观面，美国 11 月非农数据 喜忧参半，通胀数据低于预期，且美联储官员释放鸽派信号， 降息预期略有提升。国内 11 月经济数据延续偏弱，市场期 待政策加码助力 26 年经济实现开门红。 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 风险因素：宏观风险扰动，炼厂减产低于预期 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 基本面看，LME 将从 26 年 7 月实施持仓限额，LME 加速交仓， 库存回升至近 10 万吨，且 LME0-3 现货由前期高升水转为小 贴水，挤仓担忧快速降温，内外锌价均有回落。不过沪 ...

铁矿周报 铁矿震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2025 年 12 月 22 日 市场情绪扰动 ⚫ 需求端：钢厂检修规模扩大，铁水产量延续回落态 势，目前铁水已经低于去年水平。上周247家钢厂高 炉开工率78.47%，环比上周减少0.16个百分点，同比 去年减少1.16个百分点，日均铁水产量 226.55万 吨，环比上周减少2.65万吨，同比去年减少2.86万 吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外铁矿到港量与发运环比增加，均处 于历史同期高位水平，港口库存高位运行，供应压力 不减。上周全球铁矿石发运总3592.5万吨，环比增加 224.0万吨。库存方面，全国47个港口进口铁矿库存 16225.53万吨，环比增加114.06万吨；日均疏港量 328.23万吨，降5.94万吨。 ⚫ 总体上，供应端，上周海外铁矿到港量与发运环比增 加，均处于历史同期高位水平，港口库存高位运行， 供应压力不减。需求端，钢厂检修规模扩大，铁水产 量延续回落态势，目前铁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Terminal demand continues to be weak, with real estate investment declining, and new construction and construction data undergoing significant adjustments. Infrastructure investment also shows a weakening trend on a month - on - month basis. The fundamentals of the industry are average, with minor adjustments in the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products, and inventory continuing to decline. The de - stocking trend of rebar is good, while hot - rolled coils face greater inventory pressure due to adjusted apparent demand. Affected by policies, coal and coke futures have rebounded significantly, driving up the black - metal sector. Steel prices will follow the short - term rebound but remain in a volatile pattern [1][4][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3125 | 41 | 1.33% | 838111 | 2374085 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3277 | 32 | 0.99% | 279994 | 1191178 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 777.5 | 9.5 | 1.24% | 187722 | 534905 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1126.5 | 64.5 | 6.07% | 1379629 | 697473 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1603.5 | 73.0 | 4.77% | 23737 | 36859 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. Steel inventory continued to decline, and there was cost support. However, the terminal market remained weak, and there was significant upward pressure. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2950 (+10) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3300 (+30) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270 (+30) yuan/ton [4] - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The newly started floor area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The completed floor area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Among them, investment in pipeline transportation increased by 16.8%, investment in water transportation increased by 8.9%, and investment in railway transportation increased by 2.7% [4] - In terms of the industry, last week, rebar production was 1.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons; apparent demand was 2.09 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons; factory inventory was 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; social inventory was 3.13 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons; and total inventory was 4.53 million tons, a decrease of 270,000 tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 2.92 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons; factory inventory was 830,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons; social inventory was 3.07 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons; total inventory was 3.91 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons; and apparent demand was 2.98 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons [5] Industry News - Recently, multiple departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council have intensively carried out deployments to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and list key tasks for 2026. More incremental policies will be introduced according to the situation to boost consumption, stabilize investment, and cultivate new growth drivers. The scale of central budgetary investment will be appropriately increased, and major projects of the 15th Five - Year Plan will be implemented in advance. At the same time, risks in key areas will be actively and steadily resolved, "involution - style" competition will be rectified, and market order will be regulated [6] - The magazine Qiushi published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move," emphasizing that expanding domestic demand is related to both economic stability and security and is a long - term strategic measure [6] - On December 17, Ministry of Finance data showed that from January to November, the national general public budget revenue was 2.00516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Among them, national tax revenue was 1.64814 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; non - tax revenue was 357.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. In terms of central and local levels, central general public budget revenue was 884.64 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1%; local general public budget revenue at the provincial - level was 1.12052 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [6] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to China's re - implementation of export license management for steel, stating that the main purpose is to strengthen the monitoring, statistical analysis of steel product exports, and track product quality. The management complies with WTO rules and does not involve restrictions on export volume or business qualifications of enterprises [6] - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The newly started floor area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The completed floor area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [6] - From January to November 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.44035 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year. Among them, investment in mining increased by 4.0%, investment in manufacturing increased by 1.9%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries increased by 10.7%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Among them, investment in pipeline transportation increased by 16.8%, investment in water transportation increased by 8.9%, and investment in railway transportation increased by 2.7% [6] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of rebar futures and monthly spreads, the trend of hot - rolled coil futures and monthly spreads, the trend of rebar basis, the trend of hot - rolled coil basis, the regional price difference trend of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot, the smelting profit of long - process steel mills, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide, the social inventory, factory inventory, and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and the apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil [9][10][11][13][14][15][16][18][21][25][26][28][31][34][35][36]

核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 多重利空因素 棕榈油震荡偏弱 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连跌112收于3906林吉特/吨，跌幅 2.79%；棕榈油05合约跌260收于8292元/吨，跌幅 3.04%；豆油05合约跌282收于7712元/吨，跌幅3.53%； 菜油05合约跌603收于8744元/吨，跌幅6.45%；CBOT豆 油主连跌2.24收于48.36美分/磅，跌幅4.43%；ICE油菜 籽活跃合约跌23.9收于594.5加元/吨，涨幅3.86%。 ⚫ 油脂整体走弱，菜油领跌油脂，主要是澳菜籽到港压 榨，后续供应预期增多；新年度全球油菜籽供应宽松， ICE ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon prices rebounded from a low level. The main reason was that the polysilicon industry entered the substantial stage of capacity reduction, the supply - demand structure of the silicon material market continued to improve, and China's industrial output growth showed signs of recovery. Technically, the main contract stabilized and rebounded rapidly after testing the 8300 level, and it is expected that the futures price of industrial silicon will continue the rebound trend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | 12 - 19 | 12 - 12 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8690.00 | 8390.00 | 300.00 | 3.58% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9200.00 | 9200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9200.00 | 9200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9650.00 | 9650.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10350.00 | 10350.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 13600.00 | 13600.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 52.00 | 52.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.3 | 56.1 | - 0.8 | - 1.43% | Ten thousand tons | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - Supply side: Xinjiang's operating rate remained at a relatively high level of 88%, the operating rate in the southwest was weak during the dry season, and the production centers in Inner Mongolia and Gansu shifted downwards, with the supply side continuing to shrink. - Demand side: Leading polysilicon manufacturers planned to significantly adjust spot prices, and the market mainly executed historical orders. Silicon wafer prices approached the cash cost line, and the phenomenon of low - price dumping by second - and third - tier enterprises decreased significantly. Due to the recent sharp increase in silver prices, the cost pressure of battery cells climbed, and leading enterprises signaled price increases. At the component end, due to the small number of distributed project starts, leading enterprises' plans to raise prices were resisted by downstream, and the terminal market was sensitive to prices. - Inventory: Last week, the social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 561,000 tons, and the center of the industrial silicon spot market shifted downwards due to the decline in futures prices [2][5][9]. Industry News - On February 18, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that as of December 22, 2025, the minimum opening order quantity for trading instructions of polysilicon futures contracts PS2601 - PS2612 was adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots, while the minimum closing order quantity remained 1 lot [10]. - At the 2025 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference on December 18, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association did not predict the next - year's new installed capacity. Analysts predicted that in 2026, under the high - base effect, the new installed capacity in the first half of the year would face great pressure, and there was a high probability of the first negative growth in domestic installed capacity since the photovoltaic grid - parity era. Under conservative/neutral/optimistic scenarios, the new installed capacity in 2026 was expected to be 185/225/275GW. If the new installed capacity in 2025 was assumed to be 285GW, the corresponding year - on - year growth rates would be - 35%/ - 21%/ - 4%. Some institutions predicted that if the industry restored reasonable profitability, the unit price of integrated components might rise to about 0.9 - 1 yuan per watt [11]. Related Charts The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, exports, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, production of main producing areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of industrial silicon and related products, but no specific data analysis in the text is provided for these charts [12][18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the Fed will gradually slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, and the US government's vision to revitalize traditional manufacturing will restrict the growth rate of the global photovoltaic industry. China is expected to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming for a good start in the 15th Five - Year Plan [3][57]. - In terms of supply, Xinjiang's production share has increased this year, while Sichuan and Yunnan's operations are generally low. New production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu has been released steadily. The number of operating furnaces has decreased, and social inventory is high. Silicon enterprises' production profits turned positive in the second half of this year. The planned new production capacity in 2026 is only 700,000 tons. Domestic cumulative production is expected to drop to 4.15 million tons this year and further to 4 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [3][57]. - In terms of demand, with the establishment of a new polysilicon platform company, a new sustainable industry ecosystem will be built. The production capacity of downstream battery and component markets will be further compressed, and photovoltaic terminal installations will enter a self - adaptive deceleration period. The silicone industry will enter a new balance cycle through production cuts. The aluminum alloy industry's production growth is limited due to the decline in construction and building materials demand. The overall demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down in 2026, with a projected 3% decline in consumption growth [3][58]. - In 2026, the supply - demand structure of industrial silicon is expected to improve. The anti - involution policy will be further implemented. The photovoltaic industry will shift from high - growth to high - quality development, and the futures price center may stabilize and recover. The main operating range of industrial silicon in 2026 is expected to be between 8,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [3][58]. Summary by Directory 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the industrial silicon market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The futures price dropped from a maximum of 11,130 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a minimum of 6,990 yuan/ton in early June, a decline of 37.2%. In the second half of the year, due to supply contraction and improved market sentiment, the price gradually recovered. By December 12, the main contract SI2605 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 2595 yuan/ton compared to the end of last year, a decline of 23.6%. The annual price fluctuated between 6,990 - 11,130 yuan/ton [8]. Macroeconomic Analysis Fourth Plenary Session Focuses on High - Quality Development and Domestic Demand - China's traditional manufacturing faces internal and external pressures. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes requirements for economic development, including promoting high - quality development, technological innovation, and the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials. The development of artificial intelligence is also emphasized in multiple aspects [11][12]. Dual Loose Monetary and Fiscal Policies for Stable Economic Growth - China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The official manufacturing PMI in November was 50.2. The economy has maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with rapid industrial growth, stable employment, and increasing resident income. In 2026, China is expected to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [14]. Fundamental Analysis Increasing Northern Production Share and Profit Turnaround in Southwest - In November 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 401,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 3.868 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. Xinjiang's production showed a trend of low - to - high, while Sichuan and Yunnan increased production from the dry season to the wet season. The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was limited. In the context of anti - involution policies, the supply side has contracted [16]. Only 700,000 Tons of New Production Capacity Planned in 2026 - As of now, China's total industrial silicon production capacity is 7.879 million tons, with an effective capacity of 7.846 million tons. The new and expanded production capacity projects from the second half of 2025 to 2026 have significantly slowed down. The planned new production capacity in 2026 is only 700,000 tons, a significant drop compared to 2025. It is expected that the total production capacity in 2026 will reach about 8.3 million tons, with a decreasing growth rate [27][30]. High Social Inventory and Stable Export Growth - As of December 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon reached 561,000 tons, a 4.6% increase from the end of last year. The exchange's average warehouse receipt inventory was between 150,000 - 180,000 tons. From January to October, the export volume was 607,000 tons, a 1% year - on - year decrease. In 2026, the domestic social inventory is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half, and the export growth rate is expected to be 5 - 8% [36][37]. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis New Polysilicon Platform Company and Anti - Involution in Photovoltaic Industry - From January to November 2024, China's polysilicon production was 1.206 million tons, a 27.3% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, the "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" was officially established. In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will focus on capacity regulation, price monitoring, and eliminating backward production capacity. The industry is expected to enter a new balance cycle [40][43]. Silicone Industry Enters a New Ecosystem - From January to November 2025, China's silicone DMC production was 2.272 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. After the industry's anti - involution meeting in November, enterprises reached a consensus on a 30% production cut and joint price support. The DMC price has rebounded from 11,050 yuan/ton to 13,600 yuan/ton. In 2026, the silicone production is expected to grow limitedly and enter a sustainable development model [44]. Limited Growth in Aluminum Alloy Production - From January to October, China's aluminum alloy production was 15.76 million tons, a 15.7% year - on - year increase. Affected by the real estate industry, the demand for aluminum processing products was weak. In the fourth quarter, there were both production increases and decreases in different regions. It is expected that the aluminum alloy production will maintain a low growth rate in 2026 [46]. Slowing Demand Growth but More Balanced Supply - Demand in 2026 - In 2026, the demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down, but the supply - demand structure will be more balanced. The consumption growth rate is expected to decline by about 3% [47][48]. 2026 Market Outlook - In 2026, the Fed will slow down the interest rate cut, and the US government's policy will restrict the global photovoltaic industry. China will implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The supply of industrial silicon will contract, and the demand growth will slow down. The supply - demand structure is expected to improve, and the futures price may stabilize and recover, with a main operating range of 8,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [57][58].