1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US government is in a shutdown, employment data is weak, and the market is sensitive to negatives, with potential increased volatility. In China, the A - share market has returned to 4000 points, and the bond market may maintain a strong - oscillating pattern. Different commodities have different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - factors [2][3] - Precious metals are in a stage of adjustment and waiting for more information. Copper is in a weak oscillation due to economic recession expectations. Aluminum shows a high - level oscillation with both bullish and bearish factors. Other commodities also have their own unique trends affected by supply, demand, and macro - economic conditions [4][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US government is shut down. In October, non - farm jobs decreased by 9100, corporate layoffs increased by 175% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.36%. The Fed is cautious about further rate cuts, and the market prices a 69% probability of a December rate cut. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 2%, and the US dollar index fell to 99.7 [2] - Domestic: The A - share market rose unilaterally, with the Shanghai Composite Index back at 4000 points. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 was dominant in style. The bond market was affected by the stock market and regulations, and short - and long - term Treasury yields rose [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices fell slightly. COMEX gold futures fell 0.20% to $3984.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.37% to $47.85 per ounce. The prices are in a stage of adjustment, and short - term rebounds may have limited space [4][5] 3.3 Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract was in a weak oscillation, and LME copper oscillated around $10700 at night. US corporate layoffs in October reached 153,000, a 175% year - on - year increase, and the market has recession expectations for the US economy, which restricts copper prices. Tongling Nonferrous won a copper - gold - molybdenum exploration right for 3.204 billion yuan [6] 3.4 Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 21,665 yuan/ton, up 1.29%. LME aluminum closed at $2843/ton, down 0.09%. The market has both bullish and bearish factors, and aluminum prices are in a high - level oscillation [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2787 yuan/ton, up 0.87%. The supply and demand are in surplus, but cost support may lead to price stabilization, and a rebound awaits news of corporate production cuts [11] 3.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 21,095 yuan/ton, up 1.27 yuan/ton. The cost support is strong, and the price is in a high - level oscillation [12] 3.7 Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated, and LME zinc had a narrow - range oscillation. The export window is open, and the market has both bullish and bearish factors, resulting in an oscillating price [13][14] 3.8 Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract oscillated weakly. The inventory increased slightly, and in the short term, there is support, but in the long term, the supply pressure may lead to a price decline [16] 3.9 Tin - Shanghai tin's main contract oscillated strongly during the day and then weakened at night. The price is in a high - level oscillation due to the game between bullish and bearish factors [17] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply decreased due to the dry season in the southwest, and the demand showed a mixed situation. The price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern [18][19] 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly, and the spot price fell. The early复产 information was not confirmed, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation [20][21] 3.12 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated strongly. The US labor market weakness pushed up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, and the price may rise due to the adjustment of the US dollar index [22][23] 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash main contract oscillated strongly, and the glass main contract oscillated. The supply contraction may support price stabilization, and the price difference between the two varieties may converge [24][25] 3.14 Steel and Iron Products - Steel futures oscillated weakly, with a decline in production and apparent demand. Iron ore futures fell, with strong supply and weak demand [26][27] 3.15 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures continued to be strong. The third round of coke price increases was implemented, and the supply of coking coal is tight, with an expected strong - oscillating price [28][29] 3.16 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract rose. Argentina's sowing conditions are good, and the short - term trend of domestic soybean meal is expected to be strongly oscillating [30][31] 3.17 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract rose. The market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economic data is relatively strong, with the ADP employment data exceeding expectations, but there are still uncertainties in the employment market and inflation pressure remains. The US government shutdown has reached a record - long 36 days, which has an impact on the stock market and other fields. The A - share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high, with short - term expected to be weak in shock and long - term still having value for bottom - fishing layout. The bond market may maintain a relatively strong shock pattern. Different commodity prices show different trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - factors [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 10 - month ISM services PMI reached a new eight - month high, and the ADP employment data exceeded expectations, but some service industries continued to lay off workers. The US government shutdown lasted for 36 days, the longest on record. The strong economic and earnings data boosted market risk appetite, the US stock market rebounded, the US dollar index fluctuated above 100, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.16%, the gold and copper prices closed up, and the oil price closed down by more than 1% to a two - week low [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market opened low and closed high, with most major indexes rising. The trading volume shrank to 1.89 trillion. The micro - cap and ChiNext sectors were dominant, while the Shanghai 50 and Beixin 50 were weak. In the short term, it is expected to be weak in shock, and in the long term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market may benefit from the decline in risk appetite and focus on fundamentals again, and may maintain a relatively strong shock pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The international precious metal futures prices rebounded on Wednesday. The COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3990.40 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures rose 1.20% to $47.86 per ounce. Although the US ADP employment data exceeded expectations, the investment risk - aversion sentiment still drove the prices of gold and silver up. The short - term rebound space of gold and silver prices is expected to be limited, and they are still in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, and LME copper rebounded at night. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper improved, and downstream enterprises actively replenished stocks at low prices. The overall employment market in the US is still weak, and there are still uncertainties in the economy. Codelco said that its production in 2025 - 2026 will be slightly higher than that in 2024. It is expected that the copper price will stabilize and rebound after stopping falling [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.4%, and LME aluminum closed down 0.7%. The ADP employment data and ISM non - manufacturing PMI data in the US were strong, which cooled the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December. The overseas supply was disturbed, and the domestic supply of aluminum ingots increased slightly. The consumption season is shifting to the off - season, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The aluminum price is expected to adjust at a high level [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed down 0.11%. The supply of imported bauxite is expected to increase, and the cost support for alumina is weakening. The supply - demand situation remains in an oversupply pattern, and alumina continues to be weak [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc first declined and then rebounded during the day and fluctuated horizontally at night. The US ADP employment data was higher than expected, but far lower than the historical average. The zinc ingot export window is open, and the inventory is expected to decline. The short - term macro situation is stable, and the zinc price is slightly adjusted, but there is support below the price [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night. The environmental protection control still causes a regional supply shortage, and the demand of battery enterprises is expected to pick up, but the supply shortage is expected to improve as more refineries resume production. The short - term fundamentals are in a stalemate, and the lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rebounded during the day and fluctuated horizontally at night. The fundamentals have few new contradictions, and the raw material improvement is limited. The decline in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the US government shutdown have put pressure on the tin price in the short term, but it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall before the low inventory at home and abroad significantly rebounds [13][14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply side decreased marginally, and the demand side had mixed performance. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly last week. The industrial silicon spot price stabilized and rebounded, and the futures price is expected to maintain a shock in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, the price of carbonate lithium fluctuated, and the spot price fell. The production capacity of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. increased. The trading enthusiasm of the spot market was average, and both long and short sides have bargaining chips. The lithium price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. The US ADP employment data and service industry PMI data were released, and the legal debate on Trump's "reciprocal tariff" was held. The US dollar put pressure on the nickel price, but the current nickel price is at the bottom of the range, and the cost support is still there. The nickel price is expected to have limited decline space, and a callback of the US dollar index may boost the nickel price [18][19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - On Wednesday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated strongly, and the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. Some soda ash and glass production enterprises have maintenance plans. The demand for soda ash may decline due to the concentrated maintenance of glass factories. It is expected that the prices of soda ash and glass will stop falling and stabilize, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the convergence of the cross - variety price difference [20][21]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On Wednesday, steel futures fluctuated weakly. The demand for steel is weak, the supply is high, and the inventory pressure remains. The steel price is expected to be weak [22][23]. - Iron Ore: On Wednesday, iron ore futures fell. Due to the weak demand for steel and the increase in steel mill maintenance, the iron ore demand is weak, and the port inventory increased significantly. The iron ore price is expected to be weak [24]. 3.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. The 2025/26 annual soybean production in Argentina is expected to be 4,740 tons. The Chinese government will continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff on US soybeans and retain the 10% additional tariff. The import cost supports the prices of bean and rapeseed meal, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [25][26]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, palm oil futures fell. The MPOA estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia in October increased by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons. The supply of palm oil is expected to be loose, and the market is waiting for the MPOB report. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, China's economy maintains a long - term stable and positive trend. The sentiment in the domestic industrial products market is boosted by factors such as the Sino - US economic and trade talks reaching a phased consensus, the continued recovery of industrial enterprise profit growth, and the emphasis on high - quality development and green energy transformation [3][49]. - On the supply side, the supply shows a slight growth trend with Xinjiang's high - level production, a small decline in production in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - water period, and the inability of Gansu and Inner Mongolia to maintain production growth. Social inventory is rising at a high level [3][21][49]. - On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry is in a new balance cycle with both supply and demand contracting. Traditional industries like organic silicon and aluminum alloy maintain a certain degree of resilience, which is conducive to stabilizing the basic consumption of industrial silicon. In November, the demand side is expected to continue structural adjustments [3][39][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 October Industrial Silicon Market Review 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon Futures Price - In October 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a stable and rising trend. The main 2512 contract traded between 8800 - 9310 yuan/ton, with the price center slightly higher than the previous month. The price at the end of the month was 9100 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.3% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The overall spot market was stable. The average production cost in October was 9095.95 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous month. The overall furnace - opening rate rose slightly to 40.2%. The prices of mainstream grades were generally stable, with some expected to rise slightly in November [9][10][12]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes high - quality development, including strengthening the top - level design of artificial intelligence, building a new energy system, and promoting green energy transformation. It also aims to develop emerging pillar industries and future industries, which will bring new economic growth points [14][18][19]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Production - In October, Xinjiang's silicon enterprise operating rate rose above 80%, while the production in Sichuan and Yunnan decreased during the flat - water period. Gansu and Inner Mongolia failed to maintain growth. The national industrial silicon production in October was 45.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, and the cumulative production from January to October was 346.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.2% [21]. 3.3.2 Exports - From January to September, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 56.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In September, the export volume was 7.02 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. It is expected that the export volume in November will remain between 7 - 8 tons [26]. 3.3.3 Inventory - By the end of October, the social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 55.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 7.32% month - on - month. It is expected that the social inventory will decline at a high level in November [30]. 3.3.4 Downstream Demand - Polysilicon production increased in October, but the market is concerned about the follow - up of the new platform. Silicon wafer production is expected to decline due to reduced overseas demand. The battery and component markets are also facing challenges, but the component market demand is gradually improving. Organic silicon has limited price - support space, and the fundamentals have not significantly improved. The aluminum alloy market is in the peak season, with stable production and processing fees, and the production is expected to continue to increase in November [34][37][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the domestic industrial products market sentiment is boosted. The supply side shows a slight growth, and the demand side will continue structural adjustments. The photovoltaic industry may enter a new balance cycle, and traditional industries will maintain a certain degree of resilience [3][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with the supply contraction less than the demand decline. Long - process steel mills have a decent profit rate and stable supply, while short - process electric furnace steel mills are suffering increasing losses and reduced supply. Affected by the autumn - winter environmental protection production restrictions, steel supply is expected to continue to shrink [4]. - In October, the peak season for steel demand did not live up to expectations. Real estate development investment continued to decline, and infrastructure investment growth also slowed down, leading to limited steel demand. The core contradiction on the demand side lies in the continuous contraction of the real estate industry chain. In November, steel demand enters the traditional off - season, and the demand for construction steel will significantly shrink [4]. - In the next month, the steel supply pressure remains high, and demand will gradually weaken. With recent policy benefits being implemented, the macro - sentiment is stabilizing. Fundamentally, the weak reality pattern is hard to change. Overall, steel supply and demand are both weak, inventory pressure remains, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference range for rebar is 2900 - 3150 yuan/ton [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In October, steel futures fluctuated, first falling and then rising, showing an overall weak trend. At the beginning of the month, steel prices were pressured by weak fundamentals. In the middle of the month, they rebounded due to improved macro - expectations. After the macro - benefits were realized, the focus returned to fundamentals. The overall steel market was in a low - level oscillation pattern due to the game between reality and expectations [9]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis Supply is Expected to Shrink - The newly revised "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry" aims to optimize the industrial structure and promote green and low - carbon transformation. It strengthens capacity replacement ratio requirements, encourages low - carbon processes, and standardizes replacement procedures [16]. - In October, steel supply and demand were both weak, but the supply contraction was less than the demand decline. Long - process steel mills had stable supply, while short - process steel mills' supply continued to shrink. Affected by environmental protection production restrictions and losses, steel supply is expected to continue to contract [17]. High Steel Inventory Pressure - In October, steel inventories increased slightly, with a rapid increase after the National Day holiday and then a slow decline. The inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils is significantly higher than that on rebar. If demand does not improve substantially, inventory contradictions may intensify [19]. Weak Demand in the Peak Season - In October, the steel demand in the peak season was weak. The real estate industry continued to decline, infrastructure investment growth slowed down, and overseas steel exports decreased month - on - month. In November, steel demand will enter the off - season, and construction steel demand will shrink significantly [26]. Reduced Macro - impact - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in October and will end the balance - sheet reduction. Sino - US tariff relations eased. Domestically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [30]. - The real estate industry remained sluggish, and infrastructure investment growth continued to slow down. Manufacturing steel demand was structurally differentiated, with the automobile and home appliance industries showing resilience. Steel exports remained resilient but declined month - on - month [31][37]. 3. Market Outlook - The steel market will continue to face weak supply and demand in the future. Supply pressure remains high, and demand will gradually weaken. Policy benefits are being implemented, but the weak fundamental pattern is hard to change. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with the rebar reference range at 2900 - 3150 yuan/ton [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past month, the demand for iron ore fluctuated at a high level but gradually weakened. At the end of the month, environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were tightened, leading to a decline in molten iron production. Steel mills became more cautious in raw material procurement, actively reducing their imported ore inventories with weak restocking intentions. As the supply - demand situation eased, the demand side's driving force for ore prices significantly weakened [3][10][34]. - The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou is planned for November this year. Its production is expected to increase significantly in 2026 and enter a rapid growth phase from 2027 - 2028, which requires close attention. In October, the global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The arrival volume in China increased significantly. Considering the year - end rush expectation, the shipping rhythm of major mines is likely to remain active, and the arrival volume may continue to stay high [3][14][35]. - In the next month, the market focus will shift to the fundamentals. On the macro side, recent policy benefits have been intensively introduced, releasing positive sentiment. Fundamentally, iron ore demand is declining marginally, and the expectation of steel mill production cuts is strengthening, so molten iron production will continue to fall. On the supply side, overseas shipments and arrivals are expected to be stable, and port inventories may continue to accumulate. With weakening supply - demand, the iron ore price is expected to show a volatile and pressured trend, with a focus range of 700 - 810 yuan/ton [3][35]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In October, iron ore futures fluctuated widely at a high level, first falling and then rising, and the price weakened at a high level in November. At the beginning of last month, due to the National Day holiday, concerns about weak terminal demand increased, and the ore price declined under pressure. The main contract dropped to around 760 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, driven by macro - level benefits, the market sentiment gradually recovered. The iron ore price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The global shipment volume remained high last month, port inventories continued to accumulate, and the demand side weakened marginally. The daily average molten iron production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand pattern shifted from tight balance to loose [8]. - The spot price adjusted oscillatingly. As of early November, the 62% Platts Index decreased by 1.2% month - on - month to $104.6/ton, and the PB powder spot price dropped by 2 yuan to 782 yuan/wet ton. The spread between high - and low - grade ores stopped falling and rebounded. The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder increased from around 70 yuan/ton to around 95 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 contract spread oscillated last month, fluctuating narrowly in the range of 20 - 25 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Demand Driving Force Significantly Weakened - In October, the demand for iron ore fluctuated at a high level but gradually weakened. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills in October was 240,100 tons/day, a month - on - month increase of 1,900 tons, but the weekly data decreased continuously month - on - month, dropping to 236,360 tons at the end of the month. Steel mill profits shrank significantly, and the profitability rate dropped to 52.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. Terminal steel demand was weak, and the pressure of steel inventory accumulation was transmitted to the raw material end, suppressing iron ore consumption. The port desilting volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills actively reduced their imported ore inventories with weak restocking intentions [10][34]. - Overseas, in October, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The crude steel production of major iron ore importing countries has been poor. In September 2025, the global crude steel production of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics decreased by 1.6% year - on - year [11]. 3.2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments Stable - China's iron ore imports decreased year - on - year this year, but the decline has recently narrowed. From January to September, China imported 917.69 million tons of iron ore, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is expected to be put into operation smoothly, and the first shipment is planned for November this year. Its annual production capacity is 120 million tons, and it is expected to significantly increase production in 2026 and enter a rapid growth phase from 2027 - 2028 [14]. - In October, the global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The weekly average shipment volume reached 3.302 million tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with September. The shipments of major mines in Australia and Brazil were stable. The arrival volume in China increased significantly, and the monthly average weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.438 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 92,000 tons [15]. 3.2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - In the previous month, port iron ore inventories continued to accumulate. As of October 31, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country reached 145.42 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.65 million tons. The inventory accumulation was due to weakening supply - demand. The arrival volume increased significantly, while the desilting volume decreased, and steel mills slowed down their restocking. In the future, the arrival volume will remain high, but the molten iron production is under pressure to decline, and the port inventory will enter a seasonal accumulation cycle [23][24]. 3.2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - In October, steel mills actively reduced their inventories and became more cautious in procurement. As of the end of the month, the total imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 88.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio dropped to 30.35 days. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to 52%, and cash profits have significantly declined. With the deepening of the downstream demand off - season and increasing finished product inventory pressure, it is expected that steel mills will mainly have rigid demand and there will be no large - scale restocking [26]. 3.2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - In October, the production of domestic iron ore mines was stable with a slight decline. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and safety production inspections, the iron concentrate powder production of national sample mines remained at around 47,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.21. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines also declined to 60.96%. The supply elasticity of domestic mines is limited, and the market share of domestic mines has slightly shrunk [27][30]. 3.2.6 Shipping Freight Situation - In October, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was stable. As of November 4, the BDI index was reported at 1,958 points, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. On November 4, the freight rate for the Dampier - Qingdao route in Australia was $9.31/ton, a decrease of $0.26/ton in a month, and the freight rate for the Tubarao - Qingdao route in Brazil was $22.95/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $1.21/ton. It is expected that the shipping market will still lack driving force [31]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The demand side will continue to weaken. Steel mills will be more cautious in procurement, and the demand for iron ore will be further suppressed. The supply side is expected to remain stable, and port inventories may continue to accumulate. It is expected that the iron ore price will show a volatile and pressured trend, with a focus range of 700 - 810 yuan/ton [34][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The nickel market has limited guidance and prices will oscillate within a range. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown may lead to the absence of multiple data such as employment and inflation, and market sentiment is conservatively expected. With the Fed's balance - sheet reduction driving, the dollar liquidity tightens. The new Japanese prime minister advocates a loose fiscal path, and combined with the European political turmoil, the US dollar index is still expected to rise, so the macro - level may have no driving force for price increases. Industrially, the rainy season in the Philippines will disrupt nickel ore mining and shipping, the supply of nickel ore is expected to tighten marginally, and the ore price may remain high, strengthening the cost bottom support. Terminal demand is more polarized. The new energy market may remain strong within the month, with an incremental demand for nickel. The real - estate market is sluggish, and stainless - steel production is nearly flat. The supply side may remain at a high level with the addition of new production capacity, and the fundamentals have no obvious improvement [4][45]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In October, the macro - narrative was changeable, and the main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated. At the beginning of the month, the LME nickel price continued to rise, while the domestic market was closed for the holiday. After the holiday, the price rose sharply to make up for the gap and then retreated under the pressure of the upper - limit of the range. After the middle of the month, the market focused on Sino - US relations and the Fed's interest - rate cut. As Sino - US relations improved and the Fed's interest - rate cut in October became more certain, the nickel price was pushed up. However, after the interest - rate cut was implemented and multiple trade sanctions were suspended, the price dropped significantly [9]. - The spot premium was strong. In October, the premium of refined nickel showed a divergence. The premium of Jinchuan nickel rose from 2,450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2,550 yuan/ton at the end of the month, while the premium of imported nickel dropped from 500 yuan/ton to 450 yuan/ton. During the reporting period, the nickel price oscillation drove the premium to fluctuate. At the end of the month, as the nickel price continued to consolidate at the bottom, the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased significantly [10]. 2. Macro - analysis Overseas - The Fed continued the interest - rate cut path in October, with a 25 - basis - point reduction in the federal funds rate, which met market expectations. However, there were internal differences within the Fed. Dove - camp representative Milan thought the Fed should cut the interest rate by 50 basis points, while Fed Chairman Powell unexpectedly turned hawkish, believing that it was not necessary to cut the interest rate in December. After his speech, the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut dropped to 67%. In early November, multiple Fed officials spoke, and most of them believed that more data were needed to determine the policy direction [14]. - US economic data were mixed. In September, the unadjusted CPI and core CPI were both lower than expected, which initially increased the expectation of a December interest - rate cut but then decreased after Powell's hawkish speech. The US manufacturing PMI in October weakened, remaining in the contraction range for 8 consecutive months. Although the demand and employment sub - indices improved, the output sub - index dropped significantly [15]. - As of November 5, the US government shutdown had lasted for 36 days, setting a new record. The government shutdown may cause a loss of 7 - 14 billion US dollars and reduce the Q4 GDP growth rate by 1 - 2 percentage points. It also had a negative impact on people's livelihoods and may lead to the closure of the US aviation system [16]. Domestic - In September, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic social consumer goods retail sales decreased. The growth rate of household appliance consumption slowed down significantly, mainly because the national subsidy funds became tight. The retail sales of automobiles and catering also decreased slightly. Overall, the withdrawal of national subsidy policies dragged down domestic consumption, and domestic demand was in need of a boost [17]. - In October, the domestic manufacturing PMI decreased and remained below the boom - bust line for 7 consecutive months. The demand and supply sub - indices both declined. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the export order index is expected to rise in November. The employment index was relatively stable, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Overall, the domestic manufacturing industry was still weak, and the industry's prosperity may not improve significantly [18]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Nickel Ore Supply Expected to Shrink, Cost Support Strengthened - In October, the FOB price of Indonesian (1.5%) laterite nickel ore increased slightly, and the FOB price of Philippine 1.5% - grade nickel ore also rose. The rainy season in the Philippines affected nickel ore mining and shipping, leading to a marginal tightening of supply. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore was stable, and the domestic benchmark price increased slightly. In September, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly year - on - year, with most coming from the Philippines. By the end of October, domestic port inventories increased significantly [19][21]. New Production Capacity Put into Operation, Supply Pressure Continued - In October, China's refined nickel production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The profit margins of some processes improved, driving the production enthusiasm of the upstream. In September, China's imports of refined nickel increased significantly year - on - year, mainly from Russia. The import loss at the end of October was slightly larger than the previous period. In September, domestic refined nickel exports also increased year - on - year [23][24]. Poor Stainless - steel Production Scheduling, Nickel - iron Profits Under Pressure - In October, the price of high - nickel pig iron declined. China's nickel - iron production increased month - on - month, and Indonesia's production increased slightly. Due to the sluggish real - estate industry, the production scheduling of 300 - series stainless steel was poor, and the demand for nickel - iron was weak. The cost of nickel - iron plants was high, and the profit margins decreased significantly. In November, the production scheduling of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia changed little. As of the end of October, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased. In September, China's imports of nickel - iron increased significantly year - on - year, mainly from Indonesia, while stainless - steel imports increased slightly and exports decreased [26][29]. Strong Demand from Power Terminals, Good Fundamentals of Nickel Sulfate - In October, the price of nickel sulfate increased. The production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The growth rate of ternary material production was stronger than that of nickel sulfate, which supported the price. The profit margins of some processes of producing nickel sulfate increased. In September, China's imports of nickel sulfate increased year - on - year, and exports decreased slightly [34][35]. Policy Window Period Still Exists, Medium - term Weakening Expected - In September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China increased year - on - year, with a balanced production - sales ratio. The production and sales of new - energy commercial vehicles continued to be popular. The export of new - energy passenger vehicles increased significantly year - on - year. In August, the sales of new - energy vehicles in Europe increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and the sales in the US increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. In the later stage, the sales of new - energy vehicles may remain strong during the policy window period, but the demand may decline as November ends. The main reasons are the new - car replacement policy and the change in the purchase - tax exemption policy. There are also potential risks caused by the long delivery cycle of new - energy vehicle manufacturers [37][40]. Significant Inventory Accumulation in Domestic and Overseas Exchanges, Spot Flowing to Warehouse Receipts - As of October 31, the domestic refined nickel social inventory increased significantly, while the refinery inventory decreased slightly, and the bonded - area inventory dropped. As of November 4, the SHFE and LME inventories increased significantly. Overall, the inventory in exchanges increased much more than the domestic social inventory. Due to the long - term range - bound nickel price and the excess supply, more resources may flow to the exchanges, and this trend may continue [41]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: New production capacity will continue to ramp up, and supply may increase slightly (Neutral to bearish). - Demand: There is an incremental expectation for the power terminal, while the traditional industries will continue to be at the bottom (Neutral to bullish). - Cost: The supply of Philippine nickel ore will tighten, and the ore price will remain high (Supportive). - Macro - level: The absence of economic data will lead to conservative market sentiment (Neutral). - In the future, the nickel market has limited guidance, and prices will oscillate within a range. The macro - level may not provide driving force for price increases, while on the industrial side, the cost support is strengthened, terminal demand is polarized, and the supply may remain high. There is no clear guidance for the nickel market this month, and prices may continue to oscillate within a range [45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy faces opposition from the mining association due to increased production costs, and its implementation time may be postponed with uncertainties. The US biodiesel policy remains unclear, and the policy has cooled recently. International oil prices are running weakly at a low level due to eased geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production increase expectations [4][47] - The October MPOB report shows that the inventory increased more than expected due to a significant decline in domestic consumption in Malaysia. High - frequency data in October indicates that production maintains an upward trend, and export demand shows signs of weakening. The ending inventory is expected to increase to 2.44 million tons. Indonesia's September production was remarkable, with an expected annual production increase of 10%, and the origin quotes are generally lowered, with supply becoming more relaxed. India's October palm oil imports declined, verifying the weakening export demand at the origin, but there is still potential rigid import demand. There were many palm oil purchases for the October - November shipping period. Currently, domestic inventory is at a low level, and with more arrivals later, inventory is expected to increase, and recent transactions have increased [4][47] - The ongoing US government shutdown has led to a US dollar liquidity crisis, and the US dollar index is oscillating strongly. If the shutdown ends, attention should be paid to the guidance of economic data such as employment on the interest - rate cut path. The high - level Sino - US meeting at the end of October sent a positive signal to stabilize the global economy. Fundamentally, the expectation of loose supply and demand is strengthened, and oils and fats continue to run weakly. Waiting for the November MPOB report to be released. From November to March of the next year, the origin enters the production - reduction season, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. As the bearish sentiment of the biodiesel policy is gradually digested, the Indonesian B50 theme may still be hyped, which may support the market. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate weakly in the short term, and in the medium - to - long term (November), after the price stops falling and stabilizes, it will enter a low - level oscillation [4][48] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - Since October, the oils and fats sector has continued to weaken after a post - holiday high opening. In the domestic market, at the end of October, the palm oil 01 contract fell 464 to close at 8828 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.03%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 12 to close at 8128 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.15%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 622 to close at 9422 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.19%. In the foreign market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 170 to close at 4205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 3.89%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.82 to close at 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 1.66%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 34 to close at 639.2 Canadian dollars/ton, a rise of 5.63%. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 360 to 8700 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.97%; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong rose 20 to 8320 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.24%; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell 500 to 9750 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.88% [9] - After the National Day in October, palm oil opened high and then continued to weaken. The high opening was due to the continuous rise of the foreign market during the holiday and the post - holiday make - up increase. The MPOB report released in October showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased more than the market expected, mainly because domestic consumption declined significantly. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil production maintained an upward trend, and export volume showed a weakening trend. It was expected that the inventory at the end of October would increase significantly, and the expectation of loose supply suppressed the price. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10%, and the September production was remarkable. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy was opposed by the mining industry, and due to factors such as capital constraints, the implementation time of B50 originally planned for 2026 will be postponed, and the hype sentiment of the theme has cooled. Coupled with the weak oscillation of international oil prices and the weak sentiment in the commodity market in October, palm oil oscillated weakly [10] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 MPOB Report - Malaysia's September palm oil production was 1.841 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%; imports were 78,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.95%; the ending inventory at the end of September increased to 2.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%; domestic consumption was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.53%. The inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, and the report was generally neutral to bearish [21] 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From October 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 4.50% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.20% month - on - month, and production increased by 5.55% month - on - month. From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was estimated to increase by 10.77%, with production in the Malay Peninsula increasing by 4.54%, Sabah by 21.99%, Sarawak by 16.69%, and Borneo by 20.45% [24] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,639,089 tons, a 5.19% increase compared with the same period last month. According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,501,945 tons, a 4.31% month - on - month increase. According to SGS data, it was estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,282,036 tons, a 26.54% increase compared with the same period last month [24] 2.3 Indonesia Situation - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.54 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the production was 4.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.16 million tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's total palm oil production was 39.04 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 3.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the exports were 2.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's cumulative palm oil exports were 22.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.01 million tons [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's domestic palm oil consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the consumption was 2.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's cumulative domestic palm oil consumption was 16.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory was 2.54 million tons, compared with 2.57 million tons last month and 2.45 million tons in the same period last year [30] 2.4 India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In September 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.605 million tons, compared with 1.62 million tons in August and 1.06 million tons in September 2024. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative vegetable oil imports were 13.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 550,000 tons [33] - In September 2025, India's palm oil imports were 830,000 tons, compared with 991,000 tons last month and 527,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative palm oil imports were 6.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons [34] - In September 2025, India's soybean oil imports were 503,000 tons, compared with 368,000 tons last month and 384,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 4.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.29 million tons [34] - In September 2025, India's sunflower oil imports were 272,000 tons, compared with 257,000 tons last month and 153,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative sunflower oil imports were 2.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 650,000 tons [34] 2.5 China's Oil Imports - In September 2025, China's palm oil imports were 150,000 tons, compared with 340,000 tons last month and 220,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 1.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [39] - In September 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 157,000 tons, compared with 138,000 tons last month and 146,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.604 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 294,000 tons [39] - In September 2025, China's sunflower oil imports were 38,000 tons, compared with 20,000 tons last month and 104,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sunflower oil imports were 375,000 tons, compared with 933,000 tons in the same period last year [39] - In September 2025, the total imports of the above three major oils were 345,000 tons, compared with 498,000 tons in August. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imports of the three major oils were 3.729 million tons, compared with 4.313 million tons in the same period last year [39][42] 2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3246 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 306,600 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.2158 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 83,300 tons compared with the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 87,400 tons compared with the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 516,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 135,900 tons compared with the same period last year [44] 3. Summary and Outlook - The content is consistent with the core views, including the situation of biodiesel policies, production and demand, and macro - aspects, and the outlook for palm oil prices in the short and medium - to - long term [47][48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates as expected in October, internal differences within the Fed have increased. Many officials have turned cautious about a December rate cut, and the rebound of the US dollar index has pressured the metal market. There are also concerns about a slowdown in the US economic growth rate in the fourth quarter. In China, the 14th Five-Year Plan focuses on high-quality development, and the long - term positive momentum of the economy remains unchanged [2][96]. - This year, the global refined ore supply growth rate may be less than 1%, and the growth of global refined copper production capacity has hit a bottleneck. Domestic production has declined month - by - month, while imports have rebounded. In the consumption sector, the traditional industries did not show a peak - season boom in October, but emerging industries, especially data centers, provide broad incremental space for copper consumption. Domestic and global inventories have continued to rise [2][96]. - With the long - term government shutdown in the US lacking key data guidance, the Fed's balance of dual risks is challenged again. The market is pricing in a recession expectation for the US economy in the fourth quarter. China's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the high - quality development path, and anti - involution policies are being gradually implemented. The shortage of ore supply is difficult to resolve, domestic refined copper production is declining, and high copper prices are suppressing some traditional terminal consumption. However, strong cost support remains. It is expected that copper prices will stabilize and rebound after adjustment in November, showing a pattern of first decline and then rise [2][96]. Summary by Directory 1. October 2025 Copper Market Review - In October 2025, copper prices showed an overall oscillating upward trend. LME copper rose from a minimum of $10,263 at the beginning of the month to $11,200, and SHFE copper rose from 84,600 to around 89,200. As of October 31, LME copper closed at $10,901.5/ton with a monthly increase of 5.8%, and SHFE copper closed at 87,010 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 4.7%. The RMB exchange rate appreciated slightly, and the copper market showed a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic [7]. - The Fed cut interest rates as expected in October, but Powell's post - meeting statement made the December rate cut uncertain. The ECB continued to pause rate cuts. Overseas, major copper mines had slow resumption of production, and domestic refined copper production declined in the fourth quarter, providing cost support for copper prices. The improvement in macro - sentiment also contributed to the rise in copper prices. However, after copper prices reached new highs, downstream enterprises showed a wait - and - see attitude, and the traditional peak season was lackluster [7][10]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 Sino - US Economic and Trade Negotiations Reached a Phased Consensus, and Powell Turned Hawkish After the Fed Rate Cut - Sino - US leaders reached a phased consensus on economic and trade issues in late October. The US cancelled the 10% fentanyl tariff on China, suspended relevant export control rules, and China suspended relevant counter - measures. This will help reduce bilateral trade costs, boost China's exports, and strengthen the RMB [13]. - The US government shutdown has entered its sixth week, causing an economic loss of $18 billion this year, with the Q4 real GDP growth rate expected to be 1.5% lower than previously forecast. Powell turned hawkish after the October rate cut, and the December rate cut is uncertain due to high inflation and data shortages caused by the government shutdown. However, in the medium - term, the new Fed chairman may adopt a more dovish policy [14]. 2.2 The US Service Industry Showed Weakness, and the Eurozone's Q3 GDP Growth Rate Exceeded Expectations - The US ISM services PMI in October dropped to 50, the lowest since 2020. New orders and business activity declined, and the employment index contracted for four consecutive months. The US economy in the fourth quarter faces downward pressure [15]. - The Eurozone's Q3 GDP grew by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations. France's economy grew by 0.5% quarter - on - quarter, but Germany's economy stagnated. The ECB continued to pause rate cuts in October, and it may continue to cut rates in the future due to the impact of US tariffs. The IMF predicts that the Eurozone's GDP growth will be 1.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026 [17]. 2.3 The Fourth Plenary Session Focused on High - Quality Development and Implemented the "Artificial Intelligence +" Initiative - The "14th Five - Year Plan" proposes requirements for economic and social development, including high - quality development, reform and innovation, and meeting people's needs. It also emphasizes principles such as Party leadership, people - centeredness, and high - quality development [18]. - The Ministry of Science and Technology will strengthen the top - level design and systematic deployment of artificial intelligence, including basic research, the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, governance, and international cooperation. The plan also aims to develop emerging pillar industries and layout future industries, which will drive economic growth in the next 10 years [19]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Slow Resumption of Global Interrupted Mines and Under - expected Output Growth of Major Miners in Q3 - As of the end of October, the spot TC of copper concentrate remained above - $40/ton, at a relatively low historical level. The resumption of major interrupted mines is slow, and the global copper concentrate supply growth rate in 2025 is expected to be less than 1%. Some major miners have significantly lowered their production expectations for this year and next year, and concerns about medium - term supply shortages are rising [22][23]. - Glencore's Q3 copper production was 239,600 tons, with a quarterly increase of 36.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Its full - year production guidance was lowered to 850,000 - 875,000 tons. Antamina's Q3 equity copper production was 34,500 tons, with a quarterly increase of 52% and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Its full - year production guidance is 126,000 - 129,000 tons [24]. - First Quantum's Q3 copper production was 104,600 tons, with a quarterly increase of 15% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. Its full - year production guidance was slightly lowered to 390,000 - 410,000 tons. Rio Tinto's Q3 copper production was 204,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10% and a quarterly decrease of 11%. It maintained its full - year production guidance of 780,000 - 850,000 tons [25][27]. 3.2 Slow Resumption of Global Interrupted Mines and Under - expected Output Growth of Major Miners in Q3 - China's electrolytic copper production in October was 1.0919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.66%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 11.1534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.96%. In October, domestic production continued to decline due to the shortage of concentrate supply and the reduction of waste copper supply [29]. - Overseas, some smelters faced problems such as production suspension and slow production ramp - up. The actual output increase of overseas refined copper in 2025 is expected to be about 50,000 tons [30]. 3.3 Continuous Recovery of Refined Copper Imports and Stable Waste Copper Imports - From January to September, China's cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 4.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The imports of copper ore and concentrate were 22.6667 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The imports of refined copper were 2.537 million tons, with the year - on - year decline narrowing to 4.1%. In September, imports recovered rapidly, but may have declined slightly in October [54]. - The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium continued to fall in October, and the import window was not effectively opened. The total waste copper imports from January to September were 1.515 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. China will continue to expand waste copper imports from Southeast Asia [54][56]. 3.4 High - level Increase in North American Inventories and Rebound of Domestic Social Inventories from Low Levels - Since October, domestic inventories have rebounded from low levels, and global visible inventories have continued to rise. As of October 31, the total inventory of the three major exchanges (LME, COMEX, and SHFE) was 605,000 tons, an increase of 41,000 tons from the previous month. Domestic copper visible inventories (SHFE + Shanghai bonded area) rose to 222,700 tons, a significant increase of 44,700 tons from the previous month [61][62]. - High copper prices have led to a lackluster peak season in the terminal consumption market, and domestic inventories have continued to rise, dragging the near - month futures structure towards flat water [61][63]. 3.5 Traditional Industries Had a Lackluster Peak Season, and Emerging Industries Showed Strong Development Momentum - In the power grid investment sector, the cumulative growth rate has slowed down. In October, the operating rate of copper cable enterprises was less than 70%. The high copper prices have significantly dragged down downstream orders in the power grid investment industry, and it is expected that the growth rate of copper consumption in power grid investment will remain at a low level of 2.5% - 3% [67][68]. - In the photovoltaic industry, it is undergoing structural reform. The growth rate of the wind power industry is sluggish, and it is expected that the total copper consumption in the wind and solar industries will decline by about 10% this year [69][72]. - The real estate market has not emerged from the bottom - building cycle, and it is expected that the decline in copper consumption in the real estate sector will exceed 10% this year [73][74]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles have maintained high growth, and it is expected that the growth rate of copper consumption in new energy vehicles will remain above 25% this year [77][78]. - The global data center market is expected to exceed $230 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 10%. It is expected to bring about 1.05 million tons of incremental copper demand by 2026 [79]. 4. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the Fed's internal differences have increased after the October rate cut, and the government shutdown has made the December rate cut uncertain. The US dollar index rebound has pressured the metal market, and there are concerns about a US economic recession in Q4. In China, the long - term positive economic trend remains unchanged [2][96]. - Fundamentally, the global refined ore supply growth rate is expected to be less than 1%, and the growth of global refined copper production capacity has hit a bottleneck. Domestic production is declining, while imports are rebounding. Traditional industries had a lackluster peak season in October, but emerging industries provide broad incremental space for copper consumption. Inventories are rising [2][96]. - Overall, copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after adjustment in November, showing a pattern of first decline and then rise [2][96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The US government shutdown has reached a record length, causing significant concerns about liquidity and a notable decline in market risk appetite. This has led to a correction in risk assets. The market is closely watching the US government's reopening and key economic data such as the ADP employment and non - manufacturing PMI for October [2]. - In the domestic market, the A - share market is expected to be weak in the short - term and has long - term investment value. The bond market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in November [3]. - Precious metals, copper, aluminum, and other commodities are under pressure due to factors such as the US government shutdown, rising dollar index, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals. Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand and cost factors [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US government shutdown has reached a record length, causing a significant decline in market risk appetite. The Nasdaq fell by more than 2%, and prices of gold, copper, and oil all declined. The dollar index returned above 100, and the 10Y US Treasury yield decreased. The SOFR rate increased significantly at the end of October, affected by both structural and seasonal factors. The correction of risk assets is mainly due to profit - taking after reaching high levels. The market is waiting for the US government to reopen to relieve liquidity in the repo market [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market weakened on Tuesday, with over 3,600 stocks closing lower and trading volume shrinking to 1.94 trillion. The dividend and micro - cap styles continued to dominate, while the ChiNext and STAR Market adjusted. In November, the market lacks new macro and event catalysts, and the fundamentals will remain moderately volatile. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak, but in the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market continued to diverge, with long - term interest rates falling and short - term rates rising. The central bank's net purchase of national debt in October was 20 billion yuan. In November, the bond market may benefit from the decline in risk appetite and refocus on fundamentals, maintaining a relatively strong and volatile pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious metal futures prices both declined. COMEX gold futures fell 1.81% to $3,941.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce. This was mainly due to the rise in the dollar index and the decrease in the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December. The US government shutdown has led to a shortage of official economic data, and investors are more reliant on private indicators. The report maintains the view that precious metal prices are in a phased adjustment [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to correct, and LME copper fell below $10,600 at night. The domestic near - month structure remained at par. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper became more active, and downstream buyers actively replenished stocks at low prices. The LME inventory rose to 134,000 tons. The US government shutdown has lasted for 35 days, which may drag down the US economic growth in the fourth quarter. Fed officials have different views on the rate cut in December. Glencore plans to close its copper smelter in Canada due to environmental and cost issues. Considering the macro and fundamental factors, copper prices are expected to continue to adjust as the expectation of a rate cut in December fades [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed flat at 21,500 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum fell 1.48% to $2,865.5 per ton. The spot price was stable, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased slightly. The US government shutdown, the Fed's cautious stance, and the continuous rebound of the dollar index have put pressure on the metal market. Domestically, the start - up of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the supply of aluminum ingots may increase in November. The high price of aluminum has made downstream buyers cautious, and the supply - demand drive is not strong. Aluminum prices are adjusting following the macro sentiment [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures fell 0.4% to 2,764 yuan/ton, and the spot price also declined. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. The alumina project of State Power Investment Corporation in Guinea has started construction. The high - start situation of alumina enterprises remains unchanged, the supply is generally loose, the social inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is slightly weakening. Alumina prices are expected to remain weak [9][10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend. The spot market supply was tight, and traders supported prices, but downstream buyers were cautious. Glencore's zinc production increased in the third quarter, while South32 and Penoles' production decreased. Affected by the decline in the US stock market and the continuous rise of the dollar index, zinc prices were slightly pressured. The consumption is gradually weakening, but the reduction in supply and exports may support zinc prices. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to be volatile [11][12]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead first rose and then fell. The inventory of deliverable warrants was limited, and the supply of recycled lead increased after enterprises resumed production. Due to environmental control in Henan, the transportation of lead ingots was affected, increasing the delivery cycle and intensifying the regional supply shortage. In the future, the supply is expected to increase, and lead prices are expected to be volatile at high levels [13]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin showed a weak and volatile trend. The continuous rise of the dollar index has put pressure on commodities. The contradiction in the raw material end has been slightly alleviated, and the processing fees are stable at a low level. The consumption in the traditional electronic sector is weak, and downstream buyers are cautious at high prices. In the short - term, tin prices are expected to continue to adjust weakly following the sector [15]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon showed a narrow - range volatile trend. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased. The production in Xinjiang remained at a high level, while the production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased due to the approaching dry season. The demand in the polysilicon industry has different trends, and the social inventory decreased slightly last week. Affected by the weakening sentiment in the industrial product market, industrial silicon futures prices are expected to adjust in the short - term [16][17]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, the price of lithium carbonate was weak, but the spot price rose. The market has expectations for the resumption of production of Ningde's mine, which has led to a significant reduction in long - position holdings. The total inventory has decreased, but the market inventory has only slightly decreased, and the downstream's willingness to accumulate inventory at high prices is not strong. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely due to the complex market information and changing sentiment [18]. 3.11 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The inventory decreased. The nickel - iron production of Eramet increased in the third quarter. The continuous rise of the dollar index has put pressure on nickel prices, but the potential supply disruption in the Philippines and the cost support may limit the decline. In the short - term, nickel prices have reached the bottom of the range, and there may be opportunities for long - position entry [19][20]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - On Tuesday, the main contract of soda ash showed a volatile trend, and the glass contract showed a slightly stronger trend. Ningxia Risheng and Jiangsu Debang plan to reduce the production load of soda ash. Hubei Yijun plans to cold - repair a photovoltaic glass production line. The supply of soda ash is expected to face pressure, and the demand for glass has no obvious improvement. The prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the convergence opportunity of the cross - variety price difference [21]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - On Tuesday, steel futures were weak. The spot trading volume was low, and the production of steel enterprises decreased in October. As the weather gets colder, the demand for steel will further weaken, and the supply - demand situation remains weak. Iron ore futures prices fell. The port inventory increased significantly due to the increase in arrivals and the decrease in demand. The iron ore market is expected to be weak [22][24]. 3.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the bean meal contract fell 0.69%, and the rapeseed meal contract rose 1.55%. StoneX lowered the forecast of US soybean yield in 2025, and the soybean planting progress in Brazil is normal. The recent increase in the purchase of soybeans for the 12 - 1 ship period in China will supplement the supply. Bean meal prices are expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase in the short - term [25][26]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, the palm oil contract fell 0.85%. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil in October is expected to reach 2.44 million tons, a two - year high, due to the increase in production. The export also increased, but the supply is still relatively loose. Considering the macro and fundamental factors, palm oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [27][28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, with electrolytic lead supply rising to 33.47 tons and recycled refined lead supply increasing to 28.58 tons. However, the import window for lead ingots is closed, and battery consumption remains resilient. As a result, social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [2][70] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Lead Market Review - In October, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a mid - month high of 17,660 yuan/ton and finally closing at 17,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.66%. London lead continued to oscillate widely, closing at 2,025 US dollars/ton at the end of October, with a monthly increase of 1.96% [7] II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to August 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 295.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.29%. It is predicted that global lead mine supply will grow by 0.7% to 457 tons in 2025 and 2.2% to 467 tons in 2026. In China, the lead concentrate output from January to September was 124.91 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.54%. With the cold weather, the monthly output is expected to decline month - on - month but remain positive year - on - year [10][11] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and silver concentrate imports decline month - on - month**: In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton month - on - month. The average import processing fee decreased as well. In September, lead concentrate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Silver concentrate imports in September decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and future imports are expected to be under pressure [17][18] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead output was 881.3 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.31%. It is predicted that global refined lead output will increase by 2% to 1,334 tons in 2025 and 0.98% to 1,347.2 tons in 2026 [22] - **Refineries are in a state of reduction and resumption, and the monthly supply of electrolytic lead continues to rise**: In October, electrolytic lead output was 32.6 tons. In November, with the resumption of production in multiple regions, the output is expected to increase to 33.47 tons [27] - **The price of waste batteries is stable with a slight increase, and the supply of recycled lead increases marginally**: In October, the average price of waste batteries increased slightly. The output of recycled refined lead in October was 27.29 tons. In November, with the resumption of production of refineries and the output of new capacities, the output is expected to increase to 28.58 tons [33][34] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead consumption was 875.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.2%. It is predicted that global refined lead demand will grow by 1.8% to 1,325 tons in 2025 and 0.9% to 1,337 tons in 2026. The overseas lead - acid battery market has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly [45][46] - **At the end of the month, battery enterprises cut production, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises declined**: In October, the operating rate of battery enterprises first rose and then fell. In November, it is expected to rise slightly but not significantly [48][49] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures put pressure on battery exports**: In September, lead exports decreased month - on - month, and imports increased. Battery exports decreased. It is expected that lead exports will remain low in October, and imports will increase significantly [50][51] - **Terminal growth is slow, and energy storage performs well**: In the automotive sector, production and sales are growing well. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard is expected to increase lead consumption. The energy storage battery market continues to grow [58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from High Levels - In October, LME inventory first increased and then decreased, and the end - of - year high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly. Social inventory continued to decline in October and is expected to stop falling and rise in November [64] III. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, but the import window for lead ingots is closed. Battery consumption remains resilient. Social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [70]