Macroeconomic Environment - The inflation expectations in the US are rising, while consumer confidence has significantly declined, indicating uncertainty in the trade environment that may support short-term economic activity but could weaken future demand [2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in achieving its dual mandate due to tariffs, with a focus on inflation stability before adjusting policy [2] - In Europe, inflation in the Eurozone has decreased, approaching the ECB's target, while economic downturn risks are increasing, leading to continued interest rate cuts [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - The domestic economy showed a stable and positive start in Q1, benefiting from export growth and supportive policies for consumption and investment [3] - New social financing and RMB loans exceeded market expectations, indicating strong government support [3] - However, issues such as supply-demand imbalance and low prices require coordinated fiscal and monetary policy efforts [3] High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions are weak, and agricultural wholesale prices are declining, while steel and cement prices are also down [3] - Commodity prices show mixed trends, with coal and coke prices decreasing, while non-ferrous metal prices fluctuate [3] Fixed Income Market - Financial data indicates accelerated fiscal fund usage and active capital flow, with March export values showing double-digit year-on-year growth [4][5] - The central bank net injected 40.3 billion RMB during the reporting period, maintaining stable domestic funding prices [5] - The issuance of special government bonds is set to increase, with a total issuance of 1 trillion RMB planned, raising concerns about supply pressure in the bond market [5] Market Outlook - The impact of tariffs is expected to shift from a short-term variable to a long-term one, with the upcoming Politburo meeting being a key focus for potential policy changes [6] - The bond market is anticipated to remain volatile, influenced by tariff-related risk aversion and potential growth-stabilizing policies [6]

Macro and Strategy Research - The A-share market had a good start in Q1 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.76% and the ChiNext Index by 0.43% during the trading period from April 11 to April 17 [2] - In Q1, the GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, driven by a 12.4% increase in exports in March and a 4.2% rise in fixed asset investment [2][7] - The service consumption sector is expected to receive supportive measures, particularly in areas like dining, tourism, and health services, as part of the government's strategy to boost domestic demand [3] Company Research: Aima Technology (603529) - Aima Technology reported a revenue of 21.606 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, and a net profit of 1.988 billion yuan, up 5.68% [12] - The company’s gross margin and net margin improved to 17.82% and 9.31%, respectively, in 2024, with significant growth in Q4 driven by government policies promoting trade-in programs [13] - In Q1 2025, Aima is expected to achieve a net profit of 605 million yuan, a 25.12% increase year-on-year, benefiting from the trade-in policy [14] Company Research: Zijin Mining (601899) - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 78.928 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 5.55% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.167 billion yuan, up 62.39% [17] - The company experienced a 13.45% increase in gold production and a 9.49% increase in copper production in Q1 2025, alongside significant price increases for its main products [18] - Zijin Mining's share buyback plan, with a total investment of 600 million to 1 billion yuan, reflects confidence in its future growth prospects [18]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market saw all major indices rise last week, with the STAR 50 index increasing by 7.05%, the highest among them, while the Shanghai 50 index had the smallest increase of 2.34% [2] - As of April 15, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 181.37 billion yuan, an increase of 2.87 billion yuan from the previous week [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - In the electronic, agriculture, and basic chemical industries, there was a significant net buying of financing, while the power equipment, communication, and computer industries saw less net buying [3] - The steel industry is expected to rebound as market sentiment improves following tariff exemptions announced by Trump, coinciding with the consumption peak season [5] - The copper market remains tight in supply, with cost support for prices, and recent tariff exemptions have led to a price rebound [5] - The engineering machinery industry reported an average operating rate of 44.67% in Q1, an increase of 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in construction activity [8][9] Group 3: Company Announcements - Ganfeng Lithium signed a cooperation letter of intent, indicating potential growth opportunities in the lithium sector [5] - Key companies in the engineering machinery sector, such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG, have announced share buyback plans, reflecting confidence in long-term growth [9] - In the light industry and textile sectors, companies like Oppein Home and Semir Garment have been recommended for investment, reflecting their strong performance against the market [12][13]

编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.04.16） 宏观及策略研究 出口压力已经开始显现——2025 年 3 月进出口数据点评 固定收益研究 收益率继续下行，短端信用利差已处历史低位——信用债周报 晨会纪要（2025/04/16） 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/04/16） 宏观及策略研究 出口压力已经开始显现——2025 年 3 月进出口数据点评 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、数据 海关总署发布最新贸易数据显示，2025 年 3 月美元计价中国出口同比增长 12.4%，前值增长 2.3%，市场预 期增长 4.6%；进口同比下降 4.3%，前值下降 8 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The scale of corporate bond financing has decreased, with March social financing increasing by over 1 trillion yuan year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, primarily supported by government bond financing and on-balance sheet credit financing [2] - Corporate short-term loans have significantly increased year-on-year, with a net increase of 460 billion yuan in March, while medium and long-term loans showed a slight decrease, indicating a preference for short-term loans due to high bond financing costs [2][3] - M1 year-on-year growth has rebounded, likely due to accelerated fiscal fund disbursement, enhancing the liquidity of private sector demand [3] - Overall, March financial data shows improvements in both total and structural aspects, with notable increases in social financing and M1 growth, although medium and long-term loans still require further stimulation [3] Fund Research - The market saw significant net inflows into broad-based indices led by the CSI 300, with a net inflow of over 98 billion yuan, while the CSI A500 index experienced a net outflow of approximately 3.97 billion yuan [5][7] - The average net value of bond funds increased by 0.16%, while FOF and equity funds performed poorly, with the average net value of quantitative funds dropping by 3.99% [6][7] - The active equity fund position increased to 80.96%, up by 2.8 percentage points from the previous period, indicating a rising confidence in equity markets [6]

宏观及策略研究 食品和能源价格下行，核心通胀升温――2025 年 3 月物价数据点评 波动加剧更看政策耐心——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 晨会纪要（2025/04/14） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.04.14） 避险情绪升温――利率债周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/04/14） 宏观及策略研究 食品和能源价格下行，核心通胀升温――2025 年 3 月物价数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 1、CPI：食品价格是主要拖累 2025 年 3 月 CPI 同比降幅收窄，主要与低基数效应有关，CPI 的环比降幅则进一步扩大，一是源于天气转 暖，部分鲜活食品大量上市，食品供应总体充足，带动食品价格环比下降 1 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In March 2025, the CPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 0.1%, compared to a previous decline of 0.7%[14] - Food prices were the main drag, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.4%, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the CPI decline[17] - The most significant decreases in food prices included fresh vegetables at 5.1%, pork at 4.4%, and eggs at 3.1%[17] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline expanded to 2.5% in March 2025, compared to a previous decline of 2.2%[14] - Domestic pricing for production materials showed weakness, with coal prices decreasing by 4.3% due to seasonal demand reduction[30] - Equipment manufacturing prices fell, particularly in the computer and automotive sectors, with declines of 0.7% and 0.4% respectively, likely due to reduced export demand[31] Group 3: Future Outlook - For April 2025, the CPI month-on-month growth is expected to hover around zero, with a potential for positive year-on-year growth due to stable pork supply and seasonal vegetable price declines[21] - The PPI is anticipated to continue negative growth, influenced by external inflationary pressures and weak domestic demand in certain sectors[33] - Government fund expenditure growth is expected to rebound, supporting price stabilization in the black and non-metal industries[5]

――宏观经济周报 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 4 月 11 日 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宏观经济分析报告 5 波动加剧更看政策耐心 宋亦威 [Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_I 芃 ndInvest] SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 风险提示：1.地缘政治风险：全球经贸局势不确定性抬升，或对市场风险 偏好形成扰动。2.经济和政策变化超预期：近来海外经济波动加剧，国内 经济正处于转型阶段，基本面超预期变动易引起相关政策调整。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 证 券 研 究 报 宏 观 研 究 告 宏 观 周 报 就外围环境而言， ...

晨会纪要（2025/4/11） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 宏观及策略分析 多措并举稳住股市，市场底部将获夯实——A 股市场投资策略周报 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨 会 纪 要 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/4/11） [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 多措并举稳住股市，市场底部将获夯实——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 投资要点： 1、市场回顾 近 4 个交易日（4 月 7 日-4 月 10 日），重要指数纷纷收跌；其中，上证综指收跌 3.54%，创业板指收跌 7.98%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 3.27%，中证 500 收跌 5. ...

晨会纪要（2025/4/10） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 行业专题评述 金融工程研究 主要指数全部调整，两融余额大幅下降——融资融券周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 3 月挖机销售延续高景气，关注关税政策变化——机械设备行业周报 晨会纪要（2025/4/10） [Table_MorningSection] 行业专题评述 3 月挖机销售延续高景气，关注关税政策变化——机械设备行业周报 宁前羽（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522070001） 1、行业要闻 （1）3 月挖掘机销量为 29590 台，同比增长 18.50%； （2）3 月装载机销量为 13917 台，同比增长 12.90%； （3）中共中央、国务院印发《加快建设农业强国规划（2024-2035 年）》。 2、公司公告 （1）徐工机械拟回购公司股份用于实施股权激励 ...