Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [3] Core Insights - The global AI computing revolution is accelerating, with a significant increase in demand for intelligent computing power, projected to exceed 16 ZFlops by 2030, with intelligent computing accounting for over 90% of this demand [6][14] - NVIDIA leads the market with a nearly 90% share in AI server GPUs, while companies like Broadcom and AMD are also making significant strides in the ASIC chip market [6][19] - The competition in the AI computing ecosystem is intensifying, with a shift from general-purpose to specialized chips, driving a trend towards customized solutions [8][12] Summary by Sections Global AI Computing Revolution - The demand for intelligent computing is rapidly growing, with the global computing power expected to reach 16 ZFlops by 2030, where intelligent computing will dominate [14] - NVIDIA's GPU market share is approximately 90%, with significant growth in AI chip sales projected for the coming years [19] NVIDIA's Data Center Business - NVIDIA has built a comprehensive computing infrastructure, investing over 582 billion in R&D, leading to innovations across chips, systems, and software [49] - The introduction of the Blackwell architecture has significantly enhanced performance, supporting models with up to 100 trillion parameters [53] Broadcom's Rise - Broadcom focuses on ASIC chips, holding a 55%-60% market share in the ASIC market, establishing long-term partnerships with major cloud service providers [43] - The company's AI business revenue reached 20 billion, growing by 65% year-on-year [6] Intensifying Competition in the AI Ecosystem - The AI market is shifting towards specialized chips, with major cloud providers like Google and Amazon developing their own chips to reduce dependency on external suppliers [8][12] - AMD is enhancing its ecosystem, with plans to release new chip series that promise significant performance improvements [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on A-share companies such as Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Inspur, as well as U.S. companies like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD, as potential investment opportunities in the evolving AI computing landscape [6][8]

证 券 研 究 报 告 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 804 | 852 | 1,059 | 1,305 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.7% | 6.1% | 24.3% | 23.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 106 | 119 | 160 | 198 | | 同比增速(%) | -21.0% | 12.2% | 33.7% | 24.4% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.35 | 1.51 | 2.02 | 2.51 | | 市盈率(倍) | 52 | 46 | 35 | 28 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 15 日收盘价 公司研究 医疗服务 2026 年 01 月 16 日 当前价：69.79 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：郑辰 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S03 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market showed a slight increase with reduced trading volume, and the valuation increased compared to the previous day [1]. - The mid - cap growth style was relatively dominant in the market [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened, with a significant decrease in trading volume [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20% day - on - day, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.56%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.21%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.20% [1][7]. - Different style indices had varying performance, with mid - cap growth rising 0.98% and being relatively dominant [1][8]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 90.616 billion yuan, a 17.52% decrease from the previous day, and the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2938.494 billion yuan, a 26.30% decrease [1][9]. - The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 50.92 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.50bp to 1.85% [1][13]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased by 0.05% to 139.95 yuan, and the proportion of high - price bonds (above 130 yuan) rose by 0.19pct to 71.58% [2]. - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value increased by 0.47pct to 36.32%, and the overall weighted par value increased by 0.08% to 104.54 yuan [2]. Industry Rotation - In the A - share market, the top three declining industries were National Defense and Military Industry (- 2.80%), Media (- 2.70%), and Computer (- 2.40%); the top three rising industries were Electronics (+ 1.67%), Basic Chemicals (+ 1.40%), and Non - ferrous Metals (+ 1.37%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three declining industries were Building Materials (- 3.47%), National Defense and Military Industry (- 2.97%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (- 2.85%); the top three rising industries were Electronics (+ 2.55%), Commerce and Retail (+ 2.35%), and Automobile (+ 1.87%) [3].

Group 1: December Export Performance - In December, China's exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3% and the previous month's 5.9%[1] - The export growth rate in December was supported by four categories of electromechanical products: mobile phones, computers, vehicles, and integrated circuits[3] - Mobile phone exports in December saw a 10.5% increase in value, driven primarily by a low base effect from the previous year[15] Group 2: Key Product Insights - New energy vehicle exports reached 273,000 units in December, marking a 119.8% year-on-year increase, contributing significantly to overall vehicle export growth[20] - Integrated circuit exports surged by 48% year-on-year in December, benefiting from increased demand for technology imports driven by AI investments in developed markets[24] - Exports of computer parts showed strong performance, with a 36.6% year-on-year increase in November, while the overall equipment export remained weak[28] Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for 2026 suggests continued strength in the midstream sector, supported by favorable product structures across electromechanical categories[49] - The overseas gross profit margin for midstream manufacturing has surpassed domestic margins, indicating improved competitiveness of Chinese products in international markets[59] - The share of intermediate goods in China's exports has risen from 41.8% in 2017 to 47.4% in 2025, while the share of consumer goods has declined from 36.6% to 28.8%[42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CITIC Bank with a target price of 10.58 CNY and 9.70 HKD [2][9]. Core Insights - The revenue growth rate has turned upward, primarily due to improved core revenue capabilities, while asset quality remains stable [9]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2025, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan ratio to 1.15% [2][9]. - Total assets have surpassed 10 trillion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, CITIC Bank anticipates total revenue of 212.475 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.5% [2][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 70.618 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 3.0% [2][10]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio is expected to slightly decrease to 1.15%, while the provision coverage ratio is projected to be stable at 203.6% [2][10]. Financial Metrics Overview - Key financial metrics for 2025 include: - Total revenue: 212,396 million CNY - Net profit: 70,657 million CNY - Earnings per share: 1.24 CNY - Price-to-earnings ratio: 6.11 [4][10]. - The bank's total assets are projected to reach 10,122.93 billion CNY by 2026, with a steady growth trajectory [16][20]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The report indicates that the asset quality is improving, with a stable non-performing loan ratio and adequate provision coverage [9][10]. - The bank's risk management practices are highlighted as effective, contributing to the stability of its asset quality [9].

Group 1: Inflation Trends in 2025 - In 2025, the US CPI showed a "倒 N" shape trend with year-on-year rates of 2.7%, 2.4%, 2.9%, and 2.7% across the four quarters[1] - Core CPI year-on-year rates were 3.1%, 2.8%, 3.1%, and 2.6% for the same period[1] - The increase in CPI during Q2 and Q3 was primarily driven by core goods and energy, influenced by tariffs and base effects[1] Group 2: Factors Affecting Inflation in 2026 - The main risk for inflation in 2026 is additional fiscal stimulus rather than a precursor to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[2] - Excluding tariff impacts (approximately 0.5%), CPI year-on-year is slightly above 2%[2] - The probability of food and energy inflation rebounding is low, with measures taken to lower food prices and oil prices remaining stable due to oversupply[2] Group 3: Employment and Economic Feedback - The inflation trend is largely dependent on the recovery of the job market, particularly in super core services and housing inflation[2] - If non-farm employment exceeds 100,000 per month, it may indicate an overheating job market, which could lead to inflationary pressures[2] Group 4: Political Influences on Fiscal Policy - The greatest inflationary risk stems from potential fiscal stimulus driven by midterm election pressures, particularly concerning the cost of living crisis[3] - Trump may propose additional fiscal measures, such as direct payments funded by tariff revenues, to gain voter support if current non-spending measures fail[3] - The timeline for potential fiscal stimulus is likely around mid-year, coinciding with the primary elections from March to September[3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price of 11.18 CNY [2][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the company's core competitive advantages built on the "three pillars" of wealth management, investment banking, and investment management, which are expected to drive revenue growth [8][9]. - The company has shown significant recovery in revenue and profitability, achieving record highs in recent quarters, driven by active brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [35][33]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,920 million CNY in 2024 to 5,870 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% in 2024 and 33% in 2025 [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 728 million CNY in 2024 to 1,512 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 71% in 2024 and 78% in 2025 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.28 CNY in 2024 to 0.58 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 33.4 in 2024 to 16.2 in 2027 [3]. Company Overview - The company, Huaxi Securities, is a comprehensive securities firm rooted in Southwest China, focusing on wealth management, investment banking, and investment management as its main business pillars [15][18]. - It has a strong shareholder structure, with significant stakes held by local state-owned enterprises, ensuring stable control [18][19]. Business Analysis - The brokerage and proprietary trading segments are the main drivers of revenue, with brokerage income accounting for 47.2% of total revenue in 2025, significantly above the industry average [27][51]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in client funds, reaching a historical high of 330.9 million CNY, with a market share of 1.7% [58][60]. - The investment banking segment has faced challenges due to regulatory issues but is expected to recover as the company focuses on debt financing and restructuring its operations [62][64]. Market Position - The company has gradually regained market share, with total revenue reaching 34.9 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.5% [33][35]. - The asset scale has also grown, with total assets and net assets increasing by 17.3% and 6.2% year-on-year, respectively, providing a solid foundation for future business expansion [33][34].

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Group 1 - The key industries for the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 5000 points in 2026 are electronics, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, banking, military industry, machinery, and automobiles [10][12][15] - In the optimistic PE + neutral EPS scenario, the EPS growth rates for 2025 are projected to be 26% for electronics, 46% for non-bank financials, and 31% for non-ferrous metals, with expected growth rates of 42%, 53%, and 36% respectively in 2026 under neutral assumptions [15][12][10] - The banking sector, despite lower EPS growth, holds a significant weight of 17.1% in the index, indicating its potential to contribute to index growth if valuations or earnings improve [15][12] Group 2 - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a surge in short-term premium income and improved mid-term investment returns, driven by a significant amount of high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 [18][13] - The brokerage sector shows a significant valuation divergence, with a PE of 18.2 times and a PB of 1.41 times, indicating potential for valuation recovery due to strong fundamentals and policy catalysts [21][23] - The electronics industry has seen a substantial increase in its market weight, with its share in the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 1.6% at the end of 2015 to 11.5% by the end of 2025, supported by trends in AI and semiconductor industries [24][4] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to experience performance elasticity due to tight supply conditions and increased demand from AI and energy sectors, potentially leading to price increases in 2026 [25][5] - The high-end manufacturing sector is anticipated to expand, with strong performances expected in commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics, driven by policy support and technological advancements [29][6] - Historical data suggests that the 2015 bull market was significantly driven by financial and real estate sectors, indicating that the current bull market may similarly rely on technology and manufacturing sectors to reach 5000 points [30][7]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. economic cycle is marked by a shift in the pricing model of dollar assets, transitioning from economic growth to inflation levels following the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [2][5][12] - The imposition of tariffs in 2018 and 2025 has led to fluctuations in the dollar asset pricing model, with high tariffs impacting demand for U.S. Treasury bonds more significantly than the strength of the dollar [2][5][28] - The demand for U.S. Treasury bonds from overseas investors is driven by yield spreads and duration needs, while the demand for U.S. equities is influenced by differences in labor productivity due to intangible asset investments [2][6][28] Group 2 - Over the past 20 years, the demand for overseas dollar assets has shifted from risk diversification to a focus on labor productivity differences, which may lead to significant asset price bubbles [3][6] - The report highlights that the private sector's balance sheets and cash flows have improved, supporting actual consumption demand, which alters the macroeconomic risks faced by the U.S. economy [5][27] - The report emphasizes that the marginal risk switch is hindered, leading to a new pricing model for dollar assets that oscillates between unexpected inflation risks and unexpected economic growth downturn risks [5][27] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs on the pricing of dollar assets is significant, as they are seen as a demand shock that hinders the return of offshore dollars, particularly affecting the demand for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [28][31] - The report notes that the structure of overseas demand for U.S. Treasury bonds has shifted from official institutions to the private sector, indicating a change in the dynamics of dollar asset demand [34][35] - The report also discusses how the imposition of tariffs has a more pronounced negative effect on the demand for U.S. equities compared to U.S. Treasury bonds, as it raises costs for the private sector and increases recession risks [42][44] Group 4 - The evolution of overseas dollar asset demand shows that private sector investors have increasingly replaced official institutions as the main holders of U.S. assets, driven by the pursuit of higher returns and duration supply [52][70] - The report highlights that the labor productivity differences between the U.S. and other developed economies have led to a sustained increase in overseas investment in U.S. equities, as U.S. companies benefit from higher profit margins [70][75] - The report concludes that the shift in overseas dollar asset demand reflects a correction of previous trends where emerging markets diversified away from dollar assets, returning to a focus on labor productivity differences [77][78]