Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for TSMC, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [50]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached NT$1,046.09 billion (US$33.73 billion), a year-over-year increase of 25.5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.9%, exceeding the upper guidance range [8][10]. - The gross margin for Q4 2025 improved to 62.3%, up from 59.5% in the previous quarter, driven by cost improvements and higher capacity utilization [2][8]. - The company plans to significantly increase capital expenditures, with a projected budget of US$52 billion to US$56 billion for 2026, focusing on advanced technology and long-term capacity expansion [4][22]. Summary by Sections 1. TSMC Q4 2025 Operational Performance - Revenue: Q4 2025 revenue was NT$1,046.09 billion (US$33.73 billion), up 25.5% YoY and 1.9% QoQ, supported by strong demand for leading technology [8][10]. - Gross Margin: Achieved a gross margin of 62.3%, higher than the guidance range, due to cost improvements and favorable exchange rates [8][10]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders was NT$505.74 billion, reflecting a 35.0% YoY increase [8][10]. 2. Revenue Breakdown - By Platform: In Q4 2025, mobile accounted for 32% of revenue, HPC 55%, IoT 5%, automotive 5%, and digital consumer electronics 1% [14]. - By Process Technology: Revenue from 3nm process technology constituted 28%, while 5nm accounted for 35% [18]. 3. TSMC Q1 2026 Guidance - Revenue Guidance: TSMC expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between US$34.6 billion and US$35.8 billion, representing a YoY growth of approximately 38% [5][22]. - Gross Margin Guidance: Expected gross margin for Q1 2026 is between 63% and 65% [5][22]. 4. Capital Expenditure - Q4 2025 capital expenditure was approximately US$11.51 billion, with a total capital expenditure for 2025 increasing to US$40.9 billion from US$29.8 billion in 2024 [4][12]. - The capital budget for 2026 is projected to be between US$52 billion and US$56 billion, with a significant portion allocated to advanced technology [4][22]. 5. Global Manufacturing Layout - TSMC is accelerating capacity expansion in Arizona, with plans for multiple fabs to meet strong AI demand [11][15]. - The company is also expanding its manufacturing capabilities in Japan and Europe, supported by local government initiatives [15].

Export Structure Overview - In 2025, China's export structure shows a significant contribution from emerging markets, with a 49.1% share, up 2.5 percentage points from 2024[21] - Exports to the US decreased to 11.1%, down 3.5 percentage points from 2024, while non-US developed markets increased to 39.8%, up 1 percentage point[21] Commodity Contribution - Intermediate goods' export share rose from 41.9% in 2017 to 47.4% in 2025, with an annual increase of 0.7 percentage points[28] - Consumer goods' share fell from 36.6% to 28.7%, with an average annual decline of about 1 percentage point[28] - Capital goods' share slightly decreased from 21.5% to 20.1%, maintaining relative stability[28] Growth Contribution - From 2018 to 2025, the contribution of intermediate goods to export growth increased from 55.8% to 85%, while consumer goods' contribution dropped from 24.7% to -34%[28] - Capital goods' contribution rose from 19.4% to 22.4% during the same period[28] Regional Analysis - In the US, intermediate goods' share increased by 2.7 percentage points to 33.2%, while consumer goods decreased by 1 percentage point to 43.3%[41] - In the EU, intermediate goods remained stable at 39.3%, with consumer goods dropping by 3.1 percentage points to 31.7%[46] - In ASEAN, intermediate goods rose by 3.1 percentage points to 61.6%, while consumer goods fell by 5 percentage points to 19.1%[52] Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are driving growth, with significant contributions from regions like Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America, which collectively boosted exports by 5.6%[22] - The overall export growth for China in 2025 is projected at 5.5%, a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year[21]

- The report constructs an equal-weighted index based on the stocks investigated by fund managers over the past six months, with the "Research Stock-All Sample Index" achieving a cumulative return of 21.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2% during the same period[5][13][14] - The "Research Stock-Growth Index" achieved a cumulative return of 20.5% over the past six months, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2% during the same period. Additionally, the representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate reached 29.2%, outperforming both the Growth Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[25][26][27] - The "Research Stock-Balanced Index" recorded a cumulative return of 25.7% over the past six months, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 19.8%, which is lower than the Balanced Index but higher than the Shanghai Composite Index[32][33][34] - The "Research Stock-Value Index" achieved a cumulative return of 18.3% over the past six months, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 8.8%, which is lower than both the Value Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[39][40][42] - The "Research Stock-Large Cap Index" achieved a cumulative return of 23.8% over the past six months, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate reached 28.4%, outperforming both the Large Cap Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[51][52][54] - The "Research Stock-Mid Cap Index" recorded a cumulative return of 23.9% over the past six months, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 23.0%, which is close to the Mid Cap Index and higher than the Shanghai Composite Index[61][62][61] - The "Research Stock-Small Cap Index" achieved a cumulative return of 19.2% over the past six months, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 17.5%, which is lower than the Small Cap Index but higher than the Shanghai Composite Index[68][69][71] - The "Research Stock-TMT Index" achieved a cumulative return of 23.9% over the past six months, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate reached 38.8%, outperforming both the TMT Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[79][80][79] - The "Research Stock-Manufacturing Index" recorded a cumulative return of 23.4% over the past six months, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 29.4%, outperforming both the Manufacturing Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[87][88][87] - The "Research Stock-Consumer Index" achieved a cumulative return of 7.5% over the past six months, slightly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 1.9%, which is lower than both the Consumer Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[94][95][94] - The "Research Stock-Cycle Index" recorded a cumulative return of 21.3% over the past six months, exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 29.2%, outperforming both the Cycle Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[100][101][100] - The "Research Stock-Financial Real Estate Index" achieved a cumulative return of 33.2% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 15.2%. The representative fund's equal-weighted net value growth rate was 7.7%, which is lower than both the Financial Real Estate Index and the Shanghai Composite Index[107][108][107]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【专题报告】 收益差择时系列之二：如何在 A 股指数与恒 生指数构建多空模型？ ❖ 摘要 本文是华创金工在港股指数量化择时研究的第三篇，上一篇《收益差择时 模型：基于 A 股指数与恒生指数的实证》构建了上下行收益差的多头策略， 本文的目标是构建上下行收益差的多空策略。 上下行收益差多空策略在 A 股指数上的年化收益与夏普比率基本上超越 了各自上下行收益差多头策略。尤其在上证 50 指数、沪深 300 指数、上证 180 指数、中证 100 指数大盘风格指数的年化和夏普均能显著超越各自多头策略， 历史回溯表现优秀。 在恒生指数上面，上下行收益差多空策略与成交额上下行收益差多空策略 表现并不尽入人意。因此我们另辟蹊径，选择上证 50 指数作为恒生指数的相 似指数，构建了上下行收益差相似多头策略与上下行收益差相似多空策略。 上下行收益差相似多头策略在恒生指数(HSI)表现如下，年化收益为 8.86%，最大回撤为 41.72%，夏普比率 0.4，胜率 48.80%，盈亏比 1.93。上下 行收益差相似多头策略在恒生国企指数(HSCEI)表现如下，年化收益为 12.3%， 最大回撤为 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 事 项 2025 年 12 月，社融存量同比 8.3%（前值 8.5%），M2 同比 8.5%（前值 8 %）， 新口径 M1 同比 3.8%（前值 4.9%）。 ❖ 核心观点。 1、对于当下的流动性判断： 【宏观快评】 12 月 M2 同比抬升的原因及影响 ——12月金融数据点评 ①从整体的流动性来看，新增居民存款/新增 M2 这一比值仍维持在低位，这 对应当下宏观整体的流动性仍相对充裕，金融资产估值仍有支撑； ②从实体经济的流动性来看，12 月与企业预期更相关的旧口径 M1 同比回落 1.8%，领先企业利润增速的企业居民存款剪刀差回落 0.9%，两者均为 2024 年 9 月以来的最大跌幅。 ③从金融市场的流动性来看，与企业存款的弱势不同，12 月非银存款同比大 幅多增，这也与 12 月以来权益市场成交金额的火热相匹配。企业存款弱，非 银存款强，短期资金存在"脱实向虚"的可能。 2、对于未来的流动性判断： 3、但我们提示本轮宽松过峰有三点不同： ①由于经济景气当下主要集中在中游，而中游的需求更依赖海外，因此流动性 收缩对中游利润冲击并不明显； ②结合国际经验来看，只要没开 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) with an updated target price of HKD 67.75, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HKD 54.65 [4][8]. Core Insights - Meta is planning to double the production capacity of its AI glasses, Ray-Ban, by the end of this year, indicating strong confidence in the smart eyewear market [2]. - The upcoming launch of the 千问 APP by Alibaba is expected to showcase how AI can enhance operational efficiency [2]. - 康耐特光学 is positioned as a leading lens manufacturer and is actively developing its smart eyewear segment, which is anticipated to become a significant growth driver [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 康耐特光学 are as follows: - 2024A: HKD 2,061 million - 2025E: HKD 2,347 million - 2026E: HKD 2,835 million - 2027E: HKD 3,380 million - The revenue growth rates are projected at 17.1% for 2024, 13.9% for 2025, 20.8% for 2026, and 19.2% for 2027 [4][9]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2024A: HKD 428 million - 2025E: HKD 564 million - 2026E: HKD 696 million - 2027E: HKD 869 million - Corresponding net profit growth rates are 31.0% for 2024, 31.7% for 2025, 23.3% for 2026, and 25.0% for 2027 [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from HKD 0.89 in 2024 to HKD 1.81 in 2027 [4][9]. Market Position and Strategy - 康耐特光学 is actively collaborating with leading 3C companies to expand its smart eyewear offerings, which is expected to enhance its market presence and profitability [8]. - The report highlights the integration of AI capabilities in products like the 夸克 AI glasses, which are expected to drive sales through enhanced user experiences [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [3] Core Insights - The global AI computing revolution is accelerating, with a significant increase in demand for intelligent computing power, projected to exceed 16 ZFlops by 2030, with intelligent computing accounting for over 90% of this demand [6][14] - NVIDIA leads the market with a nearly 90% share in AI server GPUs, while companies like Broadcom and AMD are also making significant strides in the ASIC chip market [6][19] - The competition in the AI computing ecosystem is intensifying, with a shift from general-purpose to specialized chips, driving a trend towards customized solutions [8][12] Summary by Sections Global AI Computing Revolution - The demand for intelligent computing is rapidly growing, with the global computing power expected to reach 16 ZFlops by 2030, where intelligent computing will dominate [14] - NVIDIA's GPU market share is approximately 90%, with significant growth in AI chip sales projected for the coming years [19] NVIDIA's Data Center Business - NVIDIA has built a comprehensive computing infrastructure, investing over 582 billion in R&D, leading to innovations across chips, systems, and software [49] - The introduction of the Blackwell architecture has significantly enhanced performance, supporting models with up to 100 trillion parameters [53] Broadcom's Rise - Broadcom focuses on ASIC chips, holding a 55%-60% market share in the ASIC market, establishing long-term partnerships with major cloud service providers [43] - The company's AI business revenue reached 20 billion, growing by 65% year-on-year [6] Intensifying Competition in the AI Ecosystem - The AI market is shifting towards specialized chips, with major cloud providers like Google and Amazon developing their own chips to reduce dependency on external suppliers [8][12] - AMD is enhancing its ecosystem, with plans to release new chip series that promise significant performance improvements [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on A-share companies such as Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Inspur, as well as U.S. companies like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD, as potential investment opportunities in the evolving AI computing landscape [6][8]

证 券 研 究 报 告 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 804 | 852 | 1,059 | 1,305 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.7% | 6.1% | 24.3% | 23.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 106 | 119 | 160 | 198 | | 同比增速(%) | -21.0% | 12.2% | 33.7% | 24.4% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.35 | 1.51 | 2.02 | 2.51 | | 市盈率(倍) | 52 | 46 | 35 | 28 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 15 日收盘价 公司研究 医疗服务 2026 年 01 月 16 日 当前价：69.79 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：郑辰 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S03 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market showed a slight increase with reduced trading volume, and the valuation increased compared to the previous day [1]. - The mid - cap growth style was relatively dominant in the market [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened, with a significant decrease in trading volume [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20% day - on - day, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.56%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.21%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.20% [1][7]. - Different style indices had varying performance, with mid - cap growth rising 0.98% and being relatively dominant [1][8]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 90.616 billion yuan, a 17.52% decrease from the previous day, and the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2938.494 billion yuan, a 26.30% decrease [1][9]. - The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 50.92 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.50bp to 1.85% [1][13]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased by 0.05% to 139.95 yuan, and the proportion of high - price bonds (above 130 yuan) rose by 0.19pct to 71.58% [2]. - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value increased by 0.47pct to 36.32%, and the overall weighted par value increased by 0.08% to 104.54 yuan [2]. Industry Rotation - In the A - share market, the top three declining industries were National Defense and Military Industry (- 2.80%), Media (- 2.70%), and Computer (- 2.40%); the top three rising industries were Electronics (+ 1.67%), Basic Chemicals (+ 1.40%), and Non - ferrous Metals (+ 1.37%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three declining industries were Building Materials (- 3.47%), National Defense and Military Industry (- 2.97%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (- 2.85%); the top three rising industries were Electronics (+ 2.55%), Commerce and Retail (+ 2.35%), and Automobile (+ 1.87%) [3].

Group 1: December Export Performance - In December, China's exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3% and the previous month's 5.9%[1] - The export growth rate in December was supported by four categories of electromechanical products: mobile phones, computers, vehicles, and integrated circuits[3] - Mobile phone exports in December saw a 10.5% increase in value, driven primarily by a low base effect from the previous year[15] Group 2: Key Product Insights - New energy vehicle exports reached 273,000 units in December, marking a 119.8% year-on-year increase, contributing significantly to overall vehicle export growth[20] - Integrated circuit exports surged by 48% year-on-year in December, benefiting from increased demand for technology imports driven by AI investments in developed markets[24] - Exports of computer parts showed strong performance, with a 36.6% year-on-year increase in November, while the overall equipment export remained weak[28] Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for 2026 suggests continued strength in the midstream sector, supported by favorable product structures across electromechanical categories[49] - The overseas gross profit margin for midstream manufacturing has surpassed domestic margins, indicating improved competitiveness of Chinese products in international markets[59] - The share of intermediate goods in China's exports has risen from 41.8% in 2017 to 47.4% in 2025, while the share of consumer goods has declined from 36.6% to 28.8%[42]