石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-30 市场分析 1、12月29日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价3008元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨7元/吨，涨幅 0.23%；持仓141333手，环比下跌15886手，成交237579手，环比上涨55761手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2870—3190元/吨；华南，2860—2950元/吨； 华东，3000—3120元/吨。 昨日华北地区沥青现货价格有所下跌，华东和华南地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格基本持稳。 尽管随着淡季来临，沥青终端需求偏弱，但由于个别沥青现货流通量较为紧张，供应端存在支撑，带动现货均价 小幅上涨。整体来看，目前盘面定价转移到南方地区，局部过剩矛盾仍有待消化。与此同时，委油原料断供事件 则是潜在的上行风险，市场多空因素交织，现实与预期博弈下，底部反弹需要等待更明确的信号。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号明确，可尝试左侧逢低多配置 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 原油端表现乏力 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The oil price is closely related to the situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although there were some positive developments in the meeting between Zelensky and Trump, it is unlikely that a breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be achieved in the short term. In Q1 next year, oil prices still face significant downward pressure [2]. - The market generally expects China's SPR replenishment demand to be 500,000 barrels per day next year. If this fails to materialize, it means additional downward pressure on oil prices [2]. Section Summaries Market News and Important Data - On December 27, the Russian government extended the temporary export ban on gasoline to February 28, 2026, and the export ban on diesel, marine fuel, and other fuels to the same date, except for direct oil producers. The current supply and demand in the Russian oil product market are balanced, and inventory has recovered to a level higher than the same period last year [1]. - According to the EIA report, in the week of December 19, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.048 million barrels per day to 3.616 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels to 13.825 million barrels per day [1]. - Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez said that in response to the U.S. military deployment in the southern Caribbean, Venezuela has launched a large - scale logistical mobilization, and its crude oil shipments have been disrupted but not completely interrupted [1]. Investment Logic - The oil price is closely related to the Russia-Ukraine situation. The Russia-Ukraine peace talks are unlikely to make a breakthrough in the short term. Venezuelan crude oil shipments are affected but not halted, and its impact on oil prices is limited. In Q1 next year, oil prices face significant downward pressure. Failure to meet the expected 500,000 barrels per day of China's SPR replenishment demand will bring additional downward pressure on oil prices [2]. Strategy - The short - term trend of oil prices is weak and volatile, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risk - Downside risks include the achievement of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The report indicates that in the short - term, there is a small rebound due to cost - end support and sentiment boost. However, for PE, the supply is increasing while demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and high de - stocking pressure. For PP, the supply is still relatively loose, demand is weak, and the inventory level is high. The cost end, with the recent rebound of international oil prices and propane prices, provides some support, but the overall price is still under pressure from supply - demand contradictions [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6453元/吨（-12），PP主力合约收盘价为6274元/吨（-18）。LL华北现货为6300元/吨（+50），LL华东现货为6400元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6140元/吨（+0）。LL华北基差为 - 153元/吨（+62），LL华东基差为 - 53元/吨（+12），PP华东基差为 - 134元/吨（+18） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为82.6%（-1.2%），PP开工率为76.9%（-2.5%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为73.7元/吨（+166.3），PP油制生产利润为 - 426.3元/吨（+166.3），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 848.4元/吨（-32.2） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为90.9元/吨（+16.1），PP进口利润为 - 295.6元/吨（+16.4），PP出口利润为 - 18.7美元/吨（-2.1） [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为43.9%（-1.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.2%（-0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.7%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.0%） [2]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply remains high with planned restarts of some plants and low planned maintenance in the first quarter of next year, and new production capacity is about to be released. Demand enters the off - season with overall downstream开工率 declining, and social inventory continues to accumulate. Cost support has recovered due to the recent rebound of international oil prices. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses prices [3]. - **PP**: Short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited changes. Supply is still relatively loose with temporary maintenance and planned restarts. Demand has limited order follow - up, and overall downstream开工率 declines steadily. Cost support has increased due to the rebound of international oil prices and propane prices. The supply - demand contradiction still puts pressure on prices [4]. 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see. The short - term sentiment drives the market to rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient, and the rebound height is expected to be limited [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metal sector is under pressure, and risk management before the holiday should be done well. The market sentiment is still hot, but there are risks of policy expectation swings at home and abroad, and the fundamentals deviate from the market trend. One should continue to track the sentiment-driven market and make risk plans for the right-side adjustments [2][4] - Focus on the candidates for the Fed Chair and their impact on the pricing of interest rate cuts. The short-term market is still driven by sentiment and remains positive, but if the sentiment turns cold, one needs to be vigilant about the downward risk caused by the resonance of the macro and fundamentals [3] - Currently, focus on the non-ferrous and precious metal sectors with high certainty, and also pay attention to the opportunity of low-valued commodities to make up for the increase. For the futures market, one can buy on dips in stock index futures, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations have swung back. The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference have emphasized the continuation of fiscal and monetary policies, and multiple ministries have responded. China's November economic data is still under pressure, and one should pay attention to the expectations of policies such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts [2] - The Fed's December FOMC meeting announced the purchase of $40 billion in short-term bonds in the next 30 days and cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The US economy shows resilience, and the pricing of interest rate cuts in January next year has decreased [3] Commodity Analysis - In the non-ferrous sector, the long-term supply constraint has not been alleviated, and the certainty is still high. In the energy sector, some countries have submitted additional production cut plans, and there are warnings about oversupply and high inventory. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention. In the agricultural products sector, one should pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and the weather forecast for next year [4] - For the precious metal sector, one can pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips. The short-term risk of silver has increased, and the gold-silver ratio has deviated from the reasonable repair range [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, one can go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals on dips [5] Important News - China's industrial enterprise profits in November decreased by 13.1% year-on-year. The digital RMB action plan will be officially launched on January 1, 2026, and China will adjust the tariff rates and items of some commodities on the same day [7] - Trump said that Russia and Ukraine are "close to reaching an agreement", and the "20-point peace plan" has been 95% negotiated. The Japanese central bank hinted at more interest rate hikes, and the Iranian president claimed to be in a "full-scale war" with the US, Europe, and Israel [3][7] - Spot gold fell below $4,440 per ounce, down more than 2% intraday, and spot silver fell below $74 per ounce, down 6.54% intraday [4][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the apple industry is neutral [4] - The investment rating for the jujube industry is also neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - For the apple market, the current inventory quantity and quality are generally lower than previous periods, with high - quality fruit prices on the high side and costs remaining high. However, the prices of poorer - quality apples are showing signs of decline. Terminal consumption is average, the出库 speed is slow, and low - priced substitute fruits are gradually entering the market, creating sales pressure. The market is in a stage of supply - demand game [4] - For the jujube market, the current acquisition in the production areas has basically ended, and the output has decreased compared to the 24th production season. The supply is sufficient due to the combination of old - season inventory and new - season products. Although the traditional peak season has arrived, the sales volume is average, and merchants purchase on demand. The inventory pressure suppresses the market in the short term, and the market in sales areas is stable. Future market focus lies on peak - season consumption [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9163 yuan/ton, a change of - 84 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a decline of 0.91% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over - 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, also unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 963 in Shandong Qixia and - 763 in Shaanxi Luochuan, with a change of + 84 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - In the storage, the overall trading atmosphere of late Fuji is average. Most merchants mainly package their self - stored goods for shipment, and the enthusiasm for purchasing from fruit farmers is not high. In some northern Shaanxi production areas, inquiries for fruit farmers' goods have increased, but actual transactions are still limited. In the western production areas, merchants are sporadically looking for goods, mainly for two - grade fruit farmers' goods, with limited sales of lower - grade and higher - grade goods. In Shandong production areas, the outbound speed has slowed down, with only a small amount of 75 goods being shipped out [2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated during trading and declined at the end. Although inquiries in production areas increased, it was mainly merchants picking up their own goods. Although the mainstream price was stable, the prices of poorer - quality goods showed a downward trend. As the New Year's Day is approaching, the overall sales will improve, but the inventory digestion pressure still exists. Low - priced citrus fruits are seizing the apple sales market, so the situation in sales areas needs continuous monitoring [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The current inventory quantity and quality are lower than in previous years. High - quality apples are expensive, and costs are high. Poorer - quality apples' prices are weakening. Terminal consumption is average, and the outbound speed is slow. Low - priced substitute fruits are putting pressure on apple sales. The market is in a supply - demand tug - of - war [4] Jujube Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the jujube 2605 contract yesterday was 8970 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a decline of 0.11% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 was + - 670, a change of - 90 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang production areas is coming to an end, with a small amount of remaining goods. The prices in different areas vary according to quality. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, about 10 trucks of goods arrived during the weekend, including sub - standard and finished products, and merchants purchased on demand. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 10 trucks of goods arrived, with sufficient supply, and merchants also purchased on demand [6] Market Analysis - The jujube futures price fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The acquisition of new jujubes is almost over, with little remaining stock. Goods are gradually transferred to processors and traders, who are accelerating shipments. The market is mainly trading new goods at stable prices. Jujubes are entering the peak consumption season, with improved sales speed, but new and old goods are piling up, and the supply is still abundant. Future focus should be on the sales speed during the peak season [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The acquisition in production areas has basically ended, and the output has decreased compared to the 24th production season. The supply is sufficient due to the combination of old - season inventory and new - season products. Although the traditional peak season has arrived, the sales volume is average, and merchants purchase on demand. The inventory pressure suppresses the market in the short term, and the market in sales areas is stable. Future market focus lies on peak - season consumption [7]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-30 现货涨跌互现，市场氛围温和 市场分析 1、\t12月29日地区价格：山东市场，4270-4370；东北市场，4100-4250；华北市场，4150-4300；华东市场，4250-4400； 沿江市场，4520-4710；西北市场，4100-4250；华南市场，4470-4530。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷586美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4615元/吨，跌32元/吨，丁烷4537元/吨，跌33元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷589美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷579美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4560元/吨，跌33元/吨，丁烷4483元/吨，跌33元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近期LPG盘面弱势震荡运行。现货方面，山东区域价格有所上涨，华北，沿江区域下调，整体氛围温和。整体来 看，当前LPG基本面缺乏利好驱动，国内多数地区醚后碳四与民用气价格呈现倒挂，且近期期货注册仓单量呈现 增加态势，对PG盘面形 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With sufficient soybean arrivals, the soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, resulting in a loose supply of soybean oil and high inventory. It is expected that soybean oil will remain volatile in the short term [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan or 0.65% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,818 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan or 0.23% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan or 0.07% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.59%, and the spot basis was P05 - 22 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 412 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.41%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 700 yuan, an increase of 46 yuan [1] Market News - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil for different shipping dates remained flat compared to the previous trading day, while the C&F prices of US and Brazilian soybeans for January shipping decreased by 2 dollars/ton [2] - The export volume of Argentine soybean oil in November was 524,000 tons, lower than the previous month and last year. The total exports to India and Nepal increased. The total exports in the first 11 months were 6.48 million tons, lower than the same period in 2024. Further shipments are expected to be lower than last year due to reduced soybean processing and lower inventory [2] - Argentina announced a reduction in export tariffs for the soybean industry, with soybean tariffs decreasing from 26.5% to 24% and soybean product tariffs from 24.5% to 22.5% [2] Soybean Oil Situation - As of December 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1235 million tons, at a nearly 6 - year high. Last Thursday, the market traded on the delay of soybean customs clearance, boosting the soybean - related market, and the short - covering led to an increase in the spot basis [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [1] - Sugar: Neutral [4] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The overall pattern of domestic and foreign cotton prices is divided, with a strong domestic and weak foreign situation. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the demand side of domestic cotton is weakening marginally. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be bullish [1] - Sugar: The global sugar market is in a state of surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar is in a situation of increasing supply and the price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3][4] - Pulp: Overseas supply is disturbed, and domestic demand is expected to recover moderately in the short - term. The price will fluctuate and be slightly strong, but the upward height depends on demand and inventory digestion [7] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,385 yuan/ton, up 267 yuan/ton. From December 19th to 25th, the US graded and inspected 129,200 tons of 2025/26 cotton, and 82.1% met the ICE cotton delivery requirements [1] - Market Analysis: The domestic and foreign cotton price trends are divided. Internationally, the US cotton inventory pressure increases, and the global textile consumption is weak. Domestically, cotton production increases, and the demand side is marginally weakening [1] - Strategy: Neutral to bullish. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise, but short - term high - level corrections should be vigilant [1] Sugar - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton. As of December 27, 2025/26, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, down 15.83% year - on - year [2] - Market Analysis: The global sugar market is in surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [3][4] - Strategy: Neutral. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [4] Pulp - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5510 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Market Analysis: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, and the European demand has improved. The domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is high but showing a downward trend [6] - Strategy: Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate and be slightly strong, depending on demand and inventory digestion [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates in the first half of January were relatively strong, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first week of the second half of January [1] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Standard Contract for Container Freight Index (European Line) Futures", including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [2] - The EC2602 contract follows Maersk's freight rates in the second week of January, and the 02 contract will follow the real - time quotes. The current focus is whether the first half of January is the end of this round of freight rate increases [4] - Far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards [5][6] - The strategy suggests a sideways trend for the 12 - month contract and a moderately strong sideways trend for the February contract, with no arbitrage strategy currently [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of December 29, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 at 1822.90, EC2604 at 1169.90, EC2606 at 1374.00, EC2608 at 1497.70, EC2610 at 1054.70, and EC2512 at 1604.80. The total open interest of all container freight index (European line) futures contracts is 62,906.00 lots, with a single - day trading volume of 33,246.00 lots [7] II. Spot Price - On December 26, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1690 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2188 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3033 US dollars/FEU. On December 29, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1742.64 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1301.41 points [7] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In January, the average weekly capacity was 306,200 TEU, and in February, it was 274,500 TEU. In January, there were 3 blank sailings and 1 TBN, and in February, there were 7 TBNs and 4 blank sailings [3] - In 2025, 260 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.103 million TEU. As of December 28, 2025, 78 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.175 million TEU, and 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU [7] IV. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume navigation in 2026, which may increase the effective supply of capacity and put downward pressure on freight rates [5][6] - Maersk's container ship "Maersk Sebarok" completed its first Red Sea voyage since January 2024 on December 19, 2025, marking its tentative resumption of the Red Sea route [6] V. Demand and European Economy - The freight volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year [4] - The progress of long - term contract signing by OA and PA alliances has accelerated, with the central price of long - term contracts around 1800 US dollars/FEU [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints -受股市行情带动，LPR保持不变，宽财政强于宽货币预期、配置盘犹豫与交易盘主导，同时美联储降息预期延续、全球贸易不确定性上升增加了外资流入的不确定性，期债震荡走跌 [3] -当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地 [2] -在需求走弱与政策宽松预期并存背景下，后续稳增长仍更依赖货币侧发力 [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators -物价指标方面，中国CPI（月度）环比 -0.10%，同比 0.70%；中国PPI（月度）环比 0.10%，同比 -2.20% [9] -经济指标（月度更新）中，社会融资规模 440.07 万亿元，环比 +2.35 万亿元，环比变化率 +0.54%；M2同比 8.00%，环比 -0.20%，环比变化率 -2.44%；制造业PMI 49.20%，环比 +0.20%，环比变化率 +0.41% [10] -经济指标（日度更新）中，美元指数 98.00，环比 -0.06，环比变化率 -0.06%；美元兑人民币（离岸）7.0081，环比 +0.006，环比变化率 +0.08%；SHIBOR 7天 1.56，环比 +0.11，环比变化率 +7.60%等 [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market -展示了国债期货主力连续合约收盘价走势、各品种涨跌幅情况、各品种沉淀资金走势、持仓量占比、净持仓占比（前20名）、多空持仓比（前20名）、国开债 - 国债利差、国债发行情况等图表 [12][15][17][21] 3. Overview of Money Market Liquidity -展示了Shibor利率走势、同业存单（AAA）到期收益率走势、银行间质押式回购成交统计、地方债发行情况等图表 [26][28] 4. Spread Overview -展示了国债期货各品种跨期价差走势、现券期限利差与期货跨品种价差（4*TS - T、2*TS - TF、2*TF - T、3*T - TL、2*TS - 3*TF + T）等图表 [33][37][40][41] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了两年期国债期货主力合约隐含利率与国债到期收益率、TS主力合约IRR与资金利率、TS主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [39][42][49] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了五年期国债期货主力合约隐含利率与国债到期收益率、TF主力合约IRR与资金利率、TF主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [53][57] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了十年期国债期货主力合约隐含收益率与国债到期收益率、T主力合约IRR与资金利率、T主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [60][63] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了三十年期国债期货主力合约隐含收益率与国债到期收益率、TL主力合约IRR与资金利率、TL主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [67][70][73] Strategies -单边策略：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡 [4] -套利策略：关注2603基差回落 [4] -套保策略：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保 [4]